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19 October 2017 Slower Depletion of Job Market Slack Eases Pressure to Raise Rates (Publication Centre)

The rate that labour market slack is being absorbed has slowed, potentially giving the MPC breathing space to postpone the first rate rise beyond next month.

20 February 2019 Robust Labour Market Implies MPC Won't Dally After Brexit Risks Fade (Publication Centre)

Signs of a slowdown in the labour market data are conspicuously absent.

19 Feb 2020 The Labour Market is Tight Enough to Sustain Brisk Wage Rises (Publication Centre)

The headline employment numbers masked an otherwise sub-par December labour market report.

18 Oct 2019 MPs Are Set to Reject the New Brexit Deal, An Election Still is Imminent (Publication Centre)

PM Johnson has conceded considerable ground over the terms of Brexit for Northern Ireland in order to get a deal over the line in time for MPs to vote on it on Saturday, before the Benn Act requires him to seek an extension.

18 May 2020 How to Decipher This Week's Labour Market Report (Publication Centre)

This week's labour market report--primarily reflecting conditions in March, though some data refer to April--will lift the veil on the initial economic damage from Covid-19, though the full horror will emerge only later.

20 Jan 2020 Weak December Sales Are Noise, Consumer Fundamentals are Solid (Publication Centre)

Expectations that the MPC will cut Bank Rate at its meeting on January 30 received a further shot in the arm at the end of last week, when December's retail sales figures were released.

20 May 2020 Wages to Fall Outright as Labour Market Slack Accumulates (Publication Centre)

We hope never to see another labour market report as bad as yesterday's, though the omens aren't good.

4 Oct 2019 We're Still Not Buying the PMIs' Recession Message (Publication Centre)

We continue to distrust the suggestion from the Markit/CIPS PMIs that the economy is in recession.

4 Nov 2019 The MPC Won't Send Up a Flare While the Outlook Remains Cloudy (Publication Centre)

The economic and political backdrop to this week's Monetary Policy Committee meeting is significantly more benign than when it last met on September 19.

23 January 2019 The MPC Won't Risk Letting the Labour Market Overheat (Publication Centre)

November's labour market data were the last before the MPC's February meeting, when it will conduct its annual assessment of the supply side of the economy.

22 Jan 2020 Resilient Labour Market will Make the Doves Pause for Thought (Publication Centre)

November's labour market report provided timely reassurance, after last week's downside data surprises, that the economy did not grind to a halt at the end of last year.

18 Mar 2020 How Long Until the Labour Market Rolls Over? (Publication Centre)

The labour market was pretty robust before the coronavirus crisis.

18 Feb 2020 December Data to Sustain Picture of Solid Job Gains But Slowing Wages (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market report looks set to be a mixed bag, with growth in employment remaining strong, but further signs that momentum in average weekly wages has faded.

13 Nov 2019 The Labour Market isn't Weak Enough to Warrant More Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The rate of deterioration in the labour market remains gradual enough for the MPC to hold back from cutting Bank Rate over the coming months.

12 Aug 2020 The Downturn in Employment is Only Half-way Complete (Publication Centre)

We continue to take little comfort from the small decline in the Labour Force Survey measure of employment in the first half of this year.

11 Sept 2019 The Labour Market no Longer Looks Bulletproof (Publication Centre)

A cursory glance at July's labour market report gives no cause for alarm. The headline, three-month average, unemployment rate returned to 3.8% in July, after edging up to 3.9% in June.

14 Aug 2019 Labour Market Data Point to Higher Rates if a No-Deal Brexit is Averted (Publication Centre)

Another month, another strong set of labour market data which undermine the case for the MPC to cut Bank Rate, provided a no-deal Brexit is avoided.

14 November 2018 Still Enough Slack to Prevent Wage Growth From Rising Further (Publication Centre)

September's labour market report suggests that wage growth won't continue to rise for much longer.

17 Oct 2019 The Upward Trend in Domestically- Generated Inflation Is Clear (Publication Centre)

The case for the MPC to hold back from implementing more stimulus was bolstered by September's consumer prices figures.

16 Oct 2019 Momentum in Wage Growth Continues to Tie the MPC's Hands (Publication Centre)

The Brexit-related slump in corporate confidence finally has taken its toll on hiring.

15 Oct 2019 Below-Consensus September CPI Won't Strengthen Case for Stimulus (Publication Centre)

We expect September's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation held steady at 1.7%, below the 1.8% consensus.

14 Oct 2019: A Brexit Deal with a NI-Only Backstop won't get Through this HoC (Publication Centre)

Sterling leapt to $1.27, from $1.22 last week, amid some positive signals from all sides engaged in Brexit talks.

17 August. 2016 Job Vacancy Data to Give Early Steer on Recession Odds (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market figures will provide the first "hard data" showing how the economy has fared since the referendum. The headline employment and unemployment numbers will refer to the three months ending June, but data for July will be published on the number of people claiming unemployment benefit and the level of job vacancies.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, March and April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the headline numbers; claimant count and vacancy data show the Covid-19 pain.

Consistently Right

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