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52 matches for " v-shaped recovery":
China's two-tier post-lockdown economic revival continued in April. Industrial production beat expectations easily, rising by 3.9% year-over-year, after slipping by 1.1% in March.
Covid-19 has cut short a nascent recovery in housing market activity.
We expect July's GDP report, released on Friday, to show that overall output rose by about 7.0% month-to-month, bringing it to 11.5% below its pre-Covid peak.
China's official PMIs for March surprised well to the upside, cheering markets across Asia.
We triggered a bit of pushback on social media yesterday when we suggested that Larry Kudlow's familiarity with the alphabet is questionable.
China's July activity data pretty categorically wiped out any false hopes of a V-shaped recovery, after the June spike.
We expect May's GDP report, released on Tuesday, to provide an early blow to hopes that the economy will embark on a V-shaped recovery this year.
Last week we reported on the V-shaped recovery in German retail sales--see here--as lockdowns ended mid- way through Q2.
The next couple of months likely will see some activity data rebound to close to pre-Covid levels, fuelling hopes of a V-shaped recovery.
Survey data in Germany showed few signs of picking up from their depressed level at the start of Q4.
The 2008-to-09 recession was a mild experience for most households which remained employed and benefited from a huge decline in mortgage rates.
February's retail sales figures highlighted that consumers' spending was flagging even before the Covid-19 outbreak.
Even the record-breaking slump in Markit's composite PMI probably understates the hit to economic activity from Covid-19 and the emergency measures to slow its spread.
Retailers made hay while the sun shone in August, but clouds now are looming overhead. The 0.8% month-to-month rise in retail sales volumes took them 3.3% above last year's average.
Investors have been treated to good news in the past week, at least if they've managed to side-step the barrage of terrible economic data.
Complacency and wishful thinking seem to be creeping back into the government's approach to containing Covid-19.
While we were on holiday, the data confirmed that economies have been badly hit by the pandemic in Q2, and that the upturn will be gradual.
Yesterday's EZ money supply data confirmed that liquidity conditions in the private sector improved in Q3, despite the dip in the headline.
June's surge in retail sales is not a sign that households' total spending is zipping back to pre- downturn levels.
Yesterday's final PMI data for August confirmed that the composite index in the EZ fell to 51.9, from 54.9 in July, slightly higher than the first estimate, 51.6.
Economic conditions remain challenging in Mexico, despite a modest improvement in leading indicators. The usual surveys currently are not well-suited to capture the economy's upturn from the Covid-19 collapse.
A range of indicators show that the pace of the economic recovery shifted up a gear in July, when all shops were open for the entire month, and most consumer services providers finally were permitted to reopen.
The rapid escalation of Covid-19 cases in Korea in recent weeks has broadened the likely damage to the economy this quarter.
India's services PMI for June underscores the half-hearted nature of Unlock 1.0, with the daily number of new cases of Covid-19 still rocketing.
We've previously highlighted the pro-cyclical elements of the BoJ's framework, but it's worth repeating, when an economic shock comes along.
Japan: Monetary base growth slowed to 2.8% y/y in August, from 3.7% in July. Bloomberg reports no consensus, Korea: Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 1.0% q/q, from 1.1% in the preliminary report, below the no-change consensus. • Korea: CPI inflation fell to 0.0% in August, from 0.6% in July, below the consensus, 0.2%.
The continued gradual rise in new confirmed cases of Covid-19 lends more weight to the idea that the economy already has reopened as much as possible while containing the virus.
High frequency data are all the rage, given the speed and severity of the Covid-19 shock. GDP data are published with a lag of about six weeks, too long for investors to wait.
The economy will endure a sluggish recovery from Covid-19 this year, even if a second wave of the virus is avoided, partly because monetary stimulus is not filtering through powerfully to households.
On the face of it, yesterday's German consumption data were disappointingly weak.
Here's something we didn't expect to write: The control measure of retail sales in May was slightly higher than in February.
The U.K. economy underperformed its peers to an extraordinary degree in Q2.
The costs of the government's failure to lock down quickly in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, ultimately necessitating long-lasting restrictions, were visible in May's GDP figures.
The recovery in the industrial sector from Covid-19 finally commenced in earnest in June, after May's stalled start.
We expect June's GDP data, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered momentum in June, having got off to a faltering start in May.
Data released yesterday showed that the labour market in Brazil looks relatively resilient to the collapse in economic activity.
The government's decision to shelve plans to reopen primary schools fully later this month will ensure that GDP remains greatly below its precoronavirus level throughout the summer months.
A strong finish to the fourth quarter spared the EZ auto sector the embarrassment of posting an outright fall in domestic sales through 2019 as a whole.
The MPC's pause for breath last week disappointed a majority of investors, who thought that it would at least tweak aspects of the support programmes put in place in March.
China's economy got off to an uneasy start in the third quarter.
The uncertainty over the strength and speed of the economic rebound is still a concern for investors in terms of putting money to work.
China's data on Monday were beyond dire, leading to a dramatic downward revision of our already grim Q1 GDP forecasts for the country.
July's retail sales report, released on Friday, looks set to be the third in a row to surprise the consensus to the upside.
Yesterday's ECB meeting was a snoozer, just as we predicted.
China's December foreign trade numbers were unpleasant, with both exports and imports falling year-over-year, after rising, albeit slowly in November.
Korean exports continued to fall year-over-year in April, but the story isn't as bleak as the headlines suggest.
French consumers remained in great spirits midway through the fourth quarter. The headline INSEE consumer confidence index jumped to a 28-month high in November, from 104 in October, extending its v-shaped recovery from last year's plunge on the back of the yellow vest protests.
We advise strongly against concluding from the above-consensus rebound in retail sales in May that the economy is embarking on a healthy, V-shaped recovery, from Covid-19.
• U.S. - March payrolls were poor, they'll be terrifying in April • EUROZONE - Grim EZ PMI data in March • U.K. - The U.K. won't do better than the rest of Europe in Q2 • ASIA - A v-shaped recovery in China is not certain • LATAM - The incoming data will soon confirm a deep recession in the region
China's manufacturing PMIs confirm continued recovery in Q3 GDP. "Reopening stimulus" continues to drive China's non-manufacturing PMI. The lack of support for capex held back Japanese production in August. Retail sales in Japan shrug off the second wave and complete their near V-shaped recovery.
In one line: Not enough to underpin a V-shaped recovery.
China's Unsustainable V-Shaped Recovery...Japan's Q1 GDP Contraction Is Just A Taster...Korea's Grim April Exports Is A Warning Shot...India's Lockdown Will Kill Q2, Despite Relaxation
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