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214 matches for " us data":

US Datanote: Industrial Production, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim, but no worse than implied by other data.

US Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Worst month ever, but this is the floor.

US Datanote: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, May 2020 (preliminary) (Publication Centre)

In one line: Could have been a great deal worse.

1 February 2018 China PMIs Distorted by Holiday E ects, Missing the Curbs Impact (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs have softened in Q4. Indeed, we think the indices understate the slowdown in real GDP growth in Q4, as anti-pollution curbs were implemented. More positively, though, real GDP growth should rebound in Q1 as these measures are loosened.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: The details are significantly worse than the headline.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: The calm before the storm.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Good news, but it won't last.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ouch. The manufacturing recession continues.

US Datanote: U.S. International Trade, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not sustainable.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: GM drives up production; core manufacturing is stagnant.

US Datanote: U.S. International Trade and Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one: Both headlines are misleading.

US Datanote: U.S. International Trade, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: The post-tariff plunge in imports is starting to reverse.

US Datanote: U.S. International Trade, March 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Covid-19 is shredding trade flows.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Less terrible, but still terrible nonetheless.

US Datanote: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grotesque, but the peak is past.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Headline weakness hides employment rebound, but is it real?

US Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Philly Fed 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Initial claims now barely falling; Housing starts hit by hurricanes; Philly Fed better than headlines.

US Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Back to trend.

US Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Previously unimaginable.

US Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims, March Final Week (Publication Centre)

In one line: No words for this.

US Datanote: U.S. Markit PMIs, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Awful, especially in services, with worse to come.

US Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims Philadelphia Fed Survey, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: This week's drop is quite modest, most of the action is in the revision to last week.

US Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims May 14 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A smaller drop than we hoped for but next week should be better.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not as good as the headlines.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing beginning to recover, but a long way to go.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising activity from a low base is not enough to lift employment.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Services Survey 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Positive growth, but non-retail services activity is still hugely depressed by Covid.

US Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims 27.8.2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Initial claims are lower than a month ago, but progress now is painfully slow.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Yet more evidence that the economy was less-bad in May than in April.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing is still stagnating.

US Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The housing recovery continues; more to come.

US Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, before the virus.

US Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Old news; April will be much worse.

US Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: The rebound from the tax hit continues, fitfully.

US Datanote: U.S. GDP, Q1 advance (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim, but much grimmer is coming.

US Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Both volumes and prices have further to rise.

US Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Expect the rebound to start in May.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, March (Publication Centre)

Grim, but this is only the start.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rather startling.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, November (Publication Centre)

In one word: Astonishing.

US Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bit disappointing, but expect rising sales over the next few months.

US Datanote: U.S. GDP, Q4 advance (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't worry about the consumption slowdown; will rebound in Q1.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Housing construction likely has hit bottom.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The rebound contiunues, but at a slowing pace.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Big percentage increases from a depressed base = still depressed.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Decent core manufacturing hidden by weather-driven utility plunge.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: More ancient history.

US Datanote: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, January (prelim.) (Publication Centre)

In one line: Thank the S&P.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: A sustained surge is underway.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't worry about the undershoot; housing is strengthening rapidly.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spectacular but clearly unsustainable.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, but not for much longer.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery continues, more to come.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, March and Philadelphia Fed Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Worse to come in housing; Philly Fed near the bottom.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Very bad, but worse to come.

US Datanote: U.S. NAHB Homebuilder Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Further gains ahead as the housing market reopens.

US Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't worry about the soft control number.

US Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Data from another world.

US Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, June, Philadelphia Fed Survey, July, Weekly Jobless Claims 7 16 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing near-real-time claims are more important than the good retail sales data.

US Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Startling, in a good way.

US Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid Dec but downward revisions will hit Q4 GDP estimates.

US Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still rising, but not for much longer if Congress fails to act.

US Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core PPI inflation is trending down, but this overstates the decline.

US Datanote: U.S. Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Q1 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Could have been worse, but what matters is the next couple of years.

US Datanote: U.S. Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Q4 and Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Productivity growth has peaked; expect a clear H1 slowdown.

US Datanote: U.S. Q2 GDP and Weekly Jobless Claims 7 30 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Both terrible, but could have been worse.

US Datanote: U.S. Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sentiment supported by the July/August surge in stock prices.

US Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims 6 4 20 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slightly disappointing, but further declines are coming.

US Datanote: Weekly Jobless Claims & PPI, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Claims still heading down, but possible trouble ahead.

US Datanote: Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bit less awful.

US Datanote: Weekly Jobless Claims 5 29 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Drop in continuing claims means gross hiring is beginning to rebound.

US Datanote: Weekly Jobless Claims 6 25 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Claims are bottoming, and could easily rise again over the next few weeks.

US Datanote: Weekly Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Worse--an order of magnitude worse--to come.

US Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims May 7 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Headed for sub-1M by mid-June

US Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and PPI, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The labor market has stalled; PPI boosted by autos and healthcare services.

US Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims 7 9 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Regular claims still far too high, and Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claims are rising again.

US Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims 8 6 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Good news, but continuing claims aren't as good as they look.

US Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims 9 3 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still grim, despite the - legitimate - switch to more friendly seasonals.

US Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and Employment Costs, Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still terrible, but a bit less terrible each week.

US Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, December and Empire State Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: No overall PPI threat, but airline fares jump will lift the core PCE deflator.

US Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The intensity of the immediate downward shock to prices won't persist.

US Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: The biggest one-month drop in more than six years, but April will be much worse.

US Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Housing is the strongest major sector of the economy; more to come.

US Datanote: U.S. NFIB Small Business Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing, but not a change in the trend.

US Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The small business sector is still depressed, despite the headline uptick.

US Datanote: U.S. Pending home sales, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Noise not signal; the housing market is strengthening.

US Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boosted by mild winter weather, but the underlying trend is rising strongly too.

US Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Housing surge continues, but consumers' confidence is fraying.

US Datanote: U.S. NAHB Homebuilder Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: A huge hit, but not a record low.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, June and Weekly Jobless Claims 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Make the most of the good news.

US Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales (Publication Centre)

In one line: A correction; the trend is rising and new cycle highs are coming.

US Datanote: U.S. Pending Home Sales, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Housing was on a tear before the virus.

US Datanote: U.S. Pending Home Sales, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Well on the way to full recovery, unlike the rest of the economy.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery underway, but a long and uncertain way to go.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Half the storm.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spending growth slowing in Q4, but it's only a correction.

US Datanote: U.S. PPI and Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core PPI inflation will soon plummet; jobless claims will rise.

US Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices and Jobless Claims, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Underlying PPI trends aren't as weak as Nov headlines; claims hit holdiay seasonal noise.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising spending through Q2 means base effects guarantee a big increase in Q3.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spending is better than it looks, but sustainability depends on the U.S. not suffering a major coronavirus outbreak.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Advance Trade, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: April consumption no more disastrous than expected.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending July Advance Goods Trade August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Base effects signal 30%-plus consumption growth in Q3; core PCE deflator has further to rise.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, December & ECI, Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumption and core PCE inflation will both rebound in Q1.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid income and spending, and rising core PCE inflation before the virus. But...

US Datanote: U.S. NAHB and JOLTS (Publication Centre)

In one line: Homebuilders are becoming nervous.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Unsustainable, but the trend is still pretty strong.

US Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Really, it's much worse than it looks.

US Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The appearance of normalcy is misleading.

US Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Bouncing along the bottom; no real recovery in sight.

US Datanote: ISM Manufacturing, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Orders surging but employment lagging far behind.

US Datanote: ISM Non-manufacturing Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: The hit from tariffs on consumer goods has gone, mostly.

US Datanote: FOMC Statement and SEP (Publication Centre)

In one line: Fed holds meeting; no-one hurt.

US Datanote: FOMC Statement 4 29 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Nothing done, because everything already has been done.

US Datanote: Fed Cuts to Zero, $700B QE (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great news, but not enough on its own.

US Datanote: Fed Cuts Rates 50bp (Publication Centre)

In one line: More coming.

US Datanote: FOMC Announcement, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: As you were, mostly.

US Datanote: FOMC Minutes, April 29 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: We're all epidemiologists now.

US Datanote: FOMC Minutes, December 11 (Publication Centre)

In one line: We aren't going to do anything, unless things change materially.

US Datanote: ISM Non-manufacturing Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: The consensus beat doesn't matter; next month will be much worse.

US Datanote: ISM Non-manufacturing, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Even worse than it looks, but no worse than should be expected.

US Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, January (prelim.) and JOLTS, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sentiment is solid, but job openings are softening.

US Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, December (preliminary) (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lifted by the stock market.

US Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, March (preliminary) (Publication Centre)

In one line: The first clear virus hit in the macro data.

US Datanote: NAHB Homebuilder Survey (Publication Centre)

In one line: Housing is the hottest part of the whole economy.

US Datanote: NAHB Homebuilder Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: This what a V looks like; back to the pre-Covid level by August?

US Datanote: Jobless claims, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Nothing to worry about here; the trend might even be falling again.

US Datanote: Jobless Claims, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stable, for now.

US Datanote: ISM Non-manufacturing, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Before the deluge, everything was dry.

US Datanote: Jobless Claims 23.7.2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Likely to rise again next week, then flatten.

US Datanote: Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Claims are a clear reminder that the Covid hit is not over yet.

US Datanote: Jobless Claims, 9th April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hideous. Expect a clear drop next week.

US Datanote: Fed Announces New Measures (Publication Centre)

In one line: Whatever it takes.

US Datanote: Existing Home Sales, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The last hit from the Covid shutdowns; expect a full rebound over the summer.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ouch.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spectacular, but it likely overstates the official numbers.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A second straight gain, but no upward momentum.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, March (Publication Centre)

In one word: Irrelevant.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim, but could have be much more grim.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Likely overstates Friday's official number.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: From huge undershoot to modest overshoot?

3 Feb 2020 Some Hopeful Signs are Emerging in the Coronavirus Data (Publication Centre)

The number of coronavirus cases continues to increase, but we're expecting to see signs that the number of new cases is peaking within the next two to three weeks.

US Datanote FOMC Statement (Publication Centre)

No surprises in the statement; the IOER cut is technical, not a policy change.

US Datanote Productivity and Labor Costs Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spectacular but unsustainable.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible, but not really news.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boeing constrains Chicago PMI: Consumers happier, for now.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Could have been worse. Will be worse

US Datanote: Durable Goods Orders, October and Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: The jump in capex orders is welcome but impossible to square with surveys; expect a correction.

US Datanote: Durable Goods Orders, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: The headline jump is noise, but so--we hope--is the drop in core capital goods orders.

US Datanote: Empire State Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still soft, but expect a bounce next month from the Phase One trade deal.

US Datanote: Empire State Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery continues, but further significant near-term gains are unlikely.

US Datanote: Empire State Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Much better, but this is the early stage of the recovery.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, but still weak.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: No sign of recovery, but other regional surveys are less bad.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible, but could have been worse.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The manufacturing upturn appears to have peaked, for now.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Wild.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A startling catch-up.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A relief after ADP, but August will be weaker; No V here.

US Datanote: New Home Sales, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, but March and April, at least, will be grim.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The last Covid-driven monthly drop in the core?

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mean-reversion in the core, but rent increases are slowing sharply.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core inflation is stable for now, but will rise in H1.

US Datanote: U.S. CPI, December (Publication Centre)

In one word: Ignorable.

US Datanote: U.S. CPI, January and Weekly Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rents and heathcare lift the core; they are the key risks for 2020.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core inflation was stable--maybe nudging up a bit--before the virus. Expect it to slow over the next few months.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: More to come.

US Datanote: NFIB Small Business Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Details are wose than the consensus-beating headline.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, July and Richmond Fed, July, 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The second wave has hit confidence.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, November and New Home Sales, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Housing still strong, but confidence data point to slowing spending growth.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Calamitous, but the core won't keep falling at this pace.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods and Advance International Trade, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing starting to rebound, but full recovery is a long way off.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible, but could have been even worse.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Catastrophe, enumerated.

US Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing is growing, but momentum has stalled.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Private sector momentum has slowed, with worse to come in September.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Meh. But the trend is *much* better than surveys suggest.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pre-virus, the labor market was strong, if weather-assisted. Now, trouble is coming, fast.

US Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing is back in recession.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Could have been even worse; will be (much) worse.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Before the deluge, the trend in core orders was flat.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, January + GDP revisions + Jobless claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: The calm before virus storm.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Headline is very flattering; core orders rising but outlook is cloudy.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery continues, though not for Boeing.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still solid, but vulnerable to the drop in stock price and virus fears.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still very solid overall, but auto buying plans weak.

US Datanote: Pending Home Sales, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The strong housing rebound continues.

US Datanote: Pending Home Sales, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Reversal of December's seasonally-afflicted drop; the trend is rising.

US Datanote: Pending Home Sales, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lockdowns and colossal job losses aren't great for the housing market.

US Datanote: Personal Income and Spending, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the drop in income, but the softening in spending growth is real.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, April and Richmond Fed, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Horrible, and consumer confidence likely has further to fall.

US Datanote: Pending Home Sales, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: This is the bottom; expect a big rebound in May.

US Datanote: NFIB Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong almost everywhere.

US Datanote: NFIB Small Business Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: News from another planet.

US Datanote: NFIB Small Business Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising stock prices lift small business sentiment; labor market still tight.

US Datanote: NFIB Small Business Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not as good as the headline.

US Datanote: NFIB Small Business Survey, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, but still bad.

US Datanote: Philadelphia Fed, November & Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Philly Fed details weaker than the headline, but still strong; Claims *might* be turning up.

US Datanote: Philadelphia Fed, December and Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: No signs of manufacturing rebound here.

US Datanote: U.S. Advance International Trade in Goods, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: The plunge in the deficit is over, but exporters still under pressure.

US Datanote: U.S. Advance Trade in Goods (Publication Centre)

In one line: The first step towards mean reversion; the deficit will rise further in Q1.

US Datanote: U.S. Advance Trade in Goods, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Headline is flattering, but in any event trade is not the story now.

US Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boeing, probably.

US Datanote: Philly Fed, January, Weekly jobless claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Philly details much less spectacular than the headline; jobless claims back to lows.

US Datanote: U.S. Advance Goods Trade, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Exports crushed.

US Datanote: Powell Speech Fed Policy Statement August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft average inflation targeting is here.

US Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, and no rebound likely near-term.

US Datanote: QE4 begins (Publication Centre)

In one line: QE4

US Datanote: Retail Sales, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Is the invincible consumer wobbling? Too soon to be sure, but Q4 looking soft.

US Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Job growth continues, but only slowly compared to the Covid losses.

3 Mar 2020 Which Covid-19 Data Matter More, New Cases or Log-Levels (Publication Centre)

Something of a debate appears to be underway in markets over the "correct" way to look at the coronavirus data.

14 Apr 2020 Further Fed Action and Better Virus News Limits Downside S&P Risk (Publication Centre)

We argued a couple of weeks ago that the stock market could suffer a relapse, on the grounds that valuations hadn't fallen far enough from their peak to reflect the extent of the hit to the economy; that hopes for an early re-opening were likely to prove forlorn; and that investors were likely to be spooked by the incoming coronavirus data.

5 Feb 2020 Global Monitor Mexico's economy is up against it: a rebound in 2020? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Hopeful signs in the coronavirus data • EUROZONE - The near-term outlook darkens, but the trend is on the mend • U.K. - Only a small rise in GDP growth is needed to keep the BOE on hold • ASIA - Will the coronavirus push Japan into a technical recession • LATAM - Services spared the blushes for the Mexican economy in Q4

Consistently Right

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