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1 February 2018 China PMIs Distorted by Holiday E ects, Missing the Curbs Impact (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs have softened in Q4. Indeed, we think the indices understate the slowdown in real GDP growth in Q4, as anti-pollution curbs were implemented. More positively, though, real GDP growth should rebound in Q1 as these measures are loosened.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing is still stagnating.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Decent core manufacturing hidden by weather-driven utility plunge.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: GM drives up production; core manufacturing is stagnant.

US Datanote: U.S. International Trade, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: The post-tariff plunge in imports is starting to reverse.

US Datanote: U.S. International Trade, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not sustainable.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: A sustained surge is underway.

US Datanote: U.S. International Trade and Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one: Both headlines are misleading.

US Datanote: U.S. GDP, Q4 advance (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't worry about the consumption slowdown; will rebound in Q1.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, November (Publication Centre)

In one word: Astonishing.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Unsustainable, but the trend is still pretty strong.

US Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bit disappointing, but expect rising sales over the next few months.

US Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Both volumes and prices have further to rise.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Good news, but it won't last.

US Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: The rebound from the tax hit continues, fitfully.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spectacular but clearly unsustainable.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Headline weakness hides employment rebound, but is it real?

US Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices and Jobless Claims, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Underlying PPI trends aren't as weak as Nov headlines; claims hit holdiay seasonal noise.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spending growth slowing in Q4, but it's only a correction.

US Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, December and Empire State Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: No overall PPI threat, but airline fares jump will lift the core PCE deflator.

US Datanote: U.S. Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Q4 and Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Productivity growth has peaked; expect a clear H1 slowdown.

US Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't worry about the soft control number.

US Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid Dec but downward revisions will hit Q4 GDP estimates.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, December & ECI, Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumption and core PCE inflation will both rebound in Q1.

US Datanote: U.S. Pending home sales, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Noise not signal; the housing market is strengthening.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not as good as the headlines.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Meh. But the trend is *much* better than surveys suggest.

US Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Back to trend.

US Datanote: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, January (prelim.) (Publication Centre)

In one line: Thank the S&P.

US Datanote: U.S. NFIB Small Business Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing, but not a change in the trend.

US Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales (Publication Centre)

In one line: A correction; the trend is rising and new cycle highs are coming.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ouch. The manufacturing recession continues.

US Datanote: U.S. CPI, January and Weekly Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rents and heathcare lift the core; they are the key risks for 2020.

US Datanote: FOMC Statement and SEP (Publication Centre)

In one line: Fed holds meeting; no-one hurt.

US Datanote: FOMC Minutes, December 11 (Publication Centre)

In one line: We aren't going to do anything, unless things change materially.

US Datanote: FOMC Announcement, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: As you were, mostly.

US Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Bouncing along the bottom; no real recovery in sight.

US Datanote: ISM Non-manufacturing Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: The hit from tariffs on consumer goods has gone, mostly.

US Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, December (preliminary) (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lifted by the stock market.

US Datanote: Jobless claims, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Nothing to worry about here; the trend might even be falling again.

US Datanote: Empire State Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still soft, but expect a bounce next month from the Phase One trade deal.

US Datanote: Durable Goods Orders, October and Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: The jump in capex orders is welcome but impossible to square with surveys; expect a correction.

US Datanote Productivity and Labor Costs Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spectacular but unsustainable.

US Datanote FOMC Statement (Publication Centre)

No surprises in the statement; the IOER cut is technical, not a policy change.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: From huge undershoot to modest overshoot?

US Datanote: ADP Employment, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spectacular, but it likely overstates the official numbers.

US Datanote: Durable Goods Orders, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: The headline jump is noise, but so--we hope--is the drop in core capital goods orders.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, but still weak.

US Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, January (prelim.) and JOLTS, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sentiment is solid, but job openings are softening.

US Datanote: NAHB Homebuilder Survey (Publication Centre)

In one line: Housing is the hottest part of the whole economy.

US Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boeing, probably.

US Datanote: U.S. Advance Trade in Goods (Publication Centre)

In one line: The first step towards mean reversion; the deficit will rise further in Q1.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still very solid overall, but auto buying plans weak.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, November and New Home Sales, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Housing still strong, but confidence data point to slowing spending growth.

US Datanote: U.S. CPI, December (Publication Centre)

In one word: Ignorable.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core inflation is stable for now, but will rise in H1.

US Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, and no rebound likely near-term.

US Datanote: Retail Sales, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Is the invincible consumer wobbling? Too soon to be sure, but Q4 looking soft.

US Datanote: NFIB Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong almost everywhere.

US Datanote: NFIB Small Business Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising stock prices lift small business sentiment; labor market still tight.

US Datanote: Personal Income and Spending, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the drop in income, but the softening in spending growth is real.

US Datanote: Philadelphia Fed, December and Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: No signs of manufacturing rebound here.

US Datanote: Philly Fed, January, Weekly jobless claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Philly details much less spectacular than the headline; jobless claims back to lows.

US Datanote: Philadelphia Fed, November & Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Philly Fed details weaker than the headline, but still strong; Claims *might* be turning up.

3 Feb 2020 Some Hopeful Signs are Emerging in the Coronavirus Data (Publication Centre)

The number of coronavirus cases continues to increase, but we're expecting to see signs that the number of new cases is peaking within the next two to three weeks.

Consistently Right

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