Pantheon Macroeconomics - Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

Search Results: 911
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

Sorry, but our website is best viewed on a device with a screen width greater than 320px. You can contact us at: info@pantheonmacro.com.

Website Search

Search Results

911 matches for " u.k":

02 Mar. 2016 The Manufacturing PMI Shows that the U.K.'s Slowdown is Homegrown (Publication Centre)

Further compelling signs that the U.K. has lost its status as one of the fastest growing advanced economies were presented by the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey, released yesterday. The PMI fell in February to 50.8--its lowest level since April 2013--from 52.9 in January.

24 June. 2016 The U.K. Wants out of the EU, and Markets are Not Happy (Publication Centre)

The two polls suggesting the U.K. would remain in the EU yesterday proved to be a noose for investors to hang themselves with, as the results pointed to a vote for Brexit. Markets already are in disarray, and the direction is as we expected and feared. EUR/GBP is up 7%, and the DAX 30 in Germany is indicated by futures to plunge a hefty 7%-to-8% at the open. Bund yields will collapse too, and all eyes will be on the spread between Germany and the rest of the periphery.

03 Feb. 2016 Would a Renminbi Depreciation Derail the Pick-up in U.K. Inflation? (Publication Centre)

Investors are increasingly anxious that an intentional sharp devaluation of the renminbi, aiming to combat China's slowdown, might lead to prolonged deflation in the West, particularly in an economy as open as the U.K.

1 Dec. 2015 The Real Net Trade Drag on U.K. Growth is Still to Come (Publication Centre)

It's tempting to conclude from the third quarter's GDP figures, which showed output rising 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, despite a record drag from net trade, that the U.K. economy is comfortably weathering sterling's appreciation. But a closer look at the data shows the net trade drag is the counterparty to some erratic inventory movements. The real net trade hit is still to come.

30 Nov. 2015 Stress Tests Should Underline Greater Resilience of U.K. Banks (Publication Centre)

The resilience of the U.K. financial system will be in focus this week. On Tuesday, the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority, the PRA, will publish the results of stress tests of the U.K.'s seven largest banks. Concurrently, the Bank's Financial Policy Committee, the FPC, will publish its semi-annual Financial Stability Report and announce whether it will deploy any of its macroprudential tools.

20 Oct. 2015 Slowdown in U.K. GDP Growth to Dent EZ Exports Next Year? (Publication Centre)

Our new Chief U.K. economist, Samuel Tombs, initiated his coverage yesterday with a sombre, non-consensus, message on the economy. Headwinds from fiscal tightening and net trade will weigh on GDP growth next year, but the BoE will likely have to look through such cyclical weakness, and hike as inflation creeps higher. An intensified drag from net trade in the U.K. will, other things equal, benefit the Eurozone. But a slowdown in U.K. GDP growth still poses a notable risk to euro area headline export growth, especially in the latter part of next year.

19 July. 2016 EZ July Survey Data Will be Tainted by the U.K. Referendum Result (Publication Centre)

Today's ZEW investor sentiment report in Germany will kick off a busy week for Eurozone economic survey data, which likely will be tainted by the U.K. referendum result. We think the headline ZEW expectations index fell to about five in July, from 19.2 in June, below the consensus forecast, 9.2. Our forecastis based on the experience from recent "unexpected" shocks to investors' sentiment.

*June 2017 - U.K. General Election Conference Call Charts* (Publication Centre)

U.K. Conference Call Charts - June 2017

U.K. Webinar - Oct 2017 (Publication Centre)

When Will U.K. Rates Rise?

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: The old cliché still applies - never write off the U.K. consumer.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still pointing to a recovery in demand.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Falling mortgage rates are bolstering prices.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Too soon to take fright from the slowdown in tax receipts.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Near-flat trend in prices unlikely to improve soon.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Close to the nadir.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Treading water, but falling mortgage rates will help soon.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Looser fiscal targets will have to be adopted in response to methodological changes and sluggish growth in tax revenues.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: No cause for alarm.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: No cause for alarm.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sluggish, but not alarming.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boosted by Amazon Prime Day, but the underlying trend is solid.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Households aren't fazed by the political crisis.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: No longer slowing; lower mortgage rates are helping.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: May's drop simply reflects usual volatility; the underlying trend remains strong.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still scope for fiscal stimulus, provided the current rules are scrapped.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Depressed, but not knocked out, by Brexit uncertainty.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty, though volatility in interest payments has distorted the picture.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still essentially flat, but the impending fall in mortgage rates will help.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Mortgage Approvals, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lending set to remain resilient in the second half of this year.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Mortgage Approvals, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Falling mortgage rates are offsetting disruption caused by political uncertainty.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Acknowledging the growing downside risks, but not changing course.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Mortgage Approvals, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Households showing little sign of pre-Brexit jitters.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Mortgage Approvals, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lower mortgage rates are limiting the damage from Brexit uncertainty.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with steady, if unspectacular, GDP growth.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Reassuringly steady growth in broad money and borrowing.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Highlighting scope for stronger growth in households' spending ahead.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision and Minutes, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: The MPC has lost its confidence in the outlook, but isn't close to pre-emptive easing.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision, Minutes and Inflation Report, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Maintaining its composure; tightening still likely, if no-deal is averted.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still flat, but the trend should improve modestly later this year.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still flat, but lower mortgage rates point to gains ahead.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still broadly flat, as Brexit risk offsets support from solid wage growth.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Returning to growth.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. National Accounts, Q2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Revisions to the saving ratio leave households looking better placed to weather a future storm.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision, Minutes and Monetary Policy Report, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: New forecasts reveal a slight near-term easing bias.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. National Accounts, Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumers are showing little anxiety in the run-up to Brexit.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Flat for six months, but modest growth likely ahead.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: No sign of stockpiling ahead of the October deadline.

UK Datanote U.K. Flash PMIs, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slowing; Eurozone data suggest stagnation is to come.

UK Datanote U.K. GDP and Trade, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The way back will be much slower than the descent.

UK Datanote U.K. GDP and Trade, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still well below pre-Covid levels, despite few restrictions remaining in place.

UK Datanote U.K. GDP and Trade, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Growth momentum will peter out in the autumn.

UK Datanote U.K. Flash PMIs, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Activity is rebounding, but employment still is falling rapidly.

UK Datanote U.K. Flash PMIs, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A jobless recovery can only go so far.

UK Datanote U.K. Consumer Prices, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The headline rate will remain sub-1% in the remainder of this year.

UK Datanote U.K. Consumer Prices, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The end of imputation reveals significant inflation.

UK Datanote U.K. Economic Sentiment, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with a brutal period of layoffs ahead.

UK Datanote U.K. Labour Market Data, July and August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sampling issues have disfigured the LFS data; a sharp downturn remains in motion.

UK Datanote U.K. Labour Market Data, June and July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The pace of deterioration will quicken imminently.

UK Datanote U.K. Official House Price Index, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Falling employment and rising mortgage rates spell falling prices soon.

UK Datanote U.K. Public Finances, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Borrowing on course to decline sharply as fiscal support fades.

UK Datanote U.K. Public Finances, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Borrowing still set to total about 17% of GDP this year, despite the declining monthly trend.

UK Datanote U.K. Official House Price Index, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still reflecting the pre-Covid world.

UK Datanote U.K. Nationwide House Prices, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pent-up demand temporary supports prices; the trend still is downward.

UK Datanote U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A jobless recovery can only extend so far.

UK Datanote U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the upbeat projections; the MPC still has an easing bias.

UK Datanote U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The door remains open to a QE extension in Q4, despite recent data strength.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Other data likely are providing a more accurate signal.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The manufacturing recovery is slowing, not unraveling.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surprise surplus due to erratic goods; don't expect a trade boost to materialise soon.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: The import surge will unwind in Q2.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The inventory-related slump in export demand nearly is over; industrial production will bounce back in the summer.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Small deficits reflect volatility, not an emerging boost from the weaker pound.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: More evidence of momentum in the household sector.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Reports of falling buyer enquiries are hard to reconcile with sharply lower mortgage rates.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Supply shortages and falling mortgage rates are holding up prices.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Back to normal.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising import prices point to upside risk to the MPC's new inflation forecast.

U.K. H1 2017 Outlook - High Inflation Will Cripple Consumers and Tie Policymakers' Hands (Publication Centre)

The adverse consequences of the Brexit vote will become painfully clear in 2017.....

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Old news.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Understating the upswing in output.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still understating the manufacturing sector's recovery.

UK Datanote U.K. Car Registrations, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strength reflects the release of pent-up demand, which soon will be sated.

UK Datanote U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another strong month.

U.K. Webinar - Q1, 2018 (Publication Centre)

Will Inflation force the MPC's hand this year?

UK Datanote U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still benefiting from the release of pent-up demand and a decline in overseas travel.

UK Datanote U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Continued strength not indicative of households' overall spending.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The Brexit extension brings some relief.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Modest revival weakens the case for fresh monetary stimulus.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't buy the extremely gloomy message.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Tentative signs of a pick-up in retail sales.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still excessively downbeat.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July and Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mixed messages warn against coming to strong conclusions.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Too noisy to warrant concern.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Crying wolf, again.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Payback for the Brexit-related surge in Q1.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still depressed by new testing procedures.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Volatility caused by regulations; still trending down slowly.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another weak survey, but production will rebound in Q3.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slumping as firms run down inventories.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: The wage-price link is firmly intact; the MPC's hands are tied.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: No case for cutting Bank Rate based on the outlook for inflation.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising "underlying" services inflation points to the MPC retaining its tightening bias.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: The inflation outlook still does not warrant lower interest rates.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Downside surprise due to unsustainably low core goods inflation.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: No sign of a turnaround yet.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Dire, even after accounting for seasonal quirks.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pre-Brexit preparations providing no relief this time.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably still artificially low due to the original Brexit deadline.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surprisingly strong.

U.K. Datanote U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stagnation unlikely to persist in Q3.

U.K. Datanote: BRC Retail Sales Monitor, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sub-par, once the Easter effect is excluded.

U.K. Datanote: Car Registrations, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: An inevitable pull-back after Q1's pick-up.

U.K. Datanote: Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slowing, but not as sharply as we had feared.

U.K. Datanote U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: A worrying step change in the impact of Brexit uncertainty.

U.K. Datanote U.K. Car Registrations, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pronounced weakness in Q2 likely a consequence of the original Brexit deadline.

PM Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still dormant, despite the Brexit delay.

U.K Datanote: U.K. Mortgage Approvals, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Resilient in the face of heightened political uncertainty.

U.K Datanote: U.K. Prime Minister resignation (Publication Centre)

In one line: A no-deal Brexit remains an unlikely outcome, even with a "true" Brexiteer PM.

U.K. Datanote: Markit CIPS Services Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stagnation signal should be disregarded, again.

U.K. Datanote: Nationwide House Prices, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Flat in Q1, but scope for modest gains ahead.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Likely to be just an isolated bad month.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumers remain unperturbed by Brexit risks.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Poor performance likely due to warm weather hitting demand for clothing.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lower energy prices push inflation down at the end of Q2.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably just one isolated soft month; consumers have the means to spend more.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Balance of Payments, Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The first real evidence that foreign companies are abandoning Britain.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Balance of Payments, Q2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Persistently large deficit leaves sterling vulnerable in a Brexit crisis.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: A mediocre month, but a lasting slowdown isn't likely.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the downward impact of lower energy prices; DGI is rising.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising domestically-generated inflation limits the MPC's options.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Work is continuing to dry up as no-deal Brexit risk mounts.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Brexit uncertainty is still hurting, but a boost from lower borrowing costs is coming.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still struggling, but a recovery in 2020 is in sight.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: The downturn is accelerating; Brexit uncertainty still to blame.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: The downturn is deepening, through a rapid rebound will emerge if no-deal Brexit risk subsides.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Softening gradual enough for the MPC to keep its powder dry.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Clearer signs of "stagflation".

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another robust report, undermining the case for a rate cut.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Wage growth is too strong for the MPC to mull renewed stimulus.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pre-Brexit preparations offering little support, so far

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably this year's weakest point.

UK Datanote U.K. Retail Sales, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: As good as it will get for retailers this year.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Tentatively moving in the right direction.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not much of a Brexit deal bounce.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't take the PMI's recession signal literally.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Renewed stockpiling provides some near-term relief.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: No longer outperforming now the stockpiling boost has fully worn off.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: On course to reverse the Q1 boost.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Renewed stockpiling provides fleeting relief from the downturn.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: No longer insulated from Brexit uncertainties.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Resilient wage growth bolsters the case for rate hikes.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Undermining the case for a rate cut.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Big upside surprise should quash near-term rate cut speculation.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, June and Q2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't panic; inventories are to blame for the below-consensus print.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Drop almost entirely due to a reversal of the pre-Brexit stockpiling boost.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Downbeat consumer sentiment casts doubt over the Tories' majority hopes.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumers are defiantly optimistic, despite the Brexit saga.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still a big gap between business and consumer confidence.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Business and consumer confidence is diverging.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, March & Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Brexit preparations provide a temporary fillip to manufacturing.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Growth isn't slow enough to warrant a rate cut.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Halifax House Price Index, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Irreconcilable with all other evidence.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Halifax House Price Index, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still misleadingly upbeat.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. House of Commons Brexit votes (Publication Centre)

In one line: Brace for a general election and a weaker pound.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Halifax House Price Index, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Starting to converge with other weaker measures.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Halifax House Price Index, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slower growth reported following methodological improvements.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, September and Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Downside surprise comes with a silver lining.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GfK Consumer Confidence, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Crisis? What crisis?

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Halifax House Price Index, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still implausibly strong.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: The survey's poor track record recently means its recession signal should not be believed.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A big improvement in business confidence, albeit from a very depressed level.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mortgage approvals won't be sustained at August's level for long.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Improving monetary trends suggest recession risk remains low.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money Supply Data, March, and Nationwide House Prices, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Cash positions were built up rapidly heading into the crisis.

UK Datanote: U.K. Mortgage Approvals, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery simply reflecting lower mortgage rates; the election boost lies ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit data, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Households' cash holdings rose at a healthy rate pre-virus.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money + Credit data, January, and BoE statement (Publication Centre)

In one line: MPC easing now likely, but expect a more timid response than from other central banks.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Accumulated savings will be hoarded for now, not spent.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surging borrowing has held back corporate collapses, for now.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with GDP growth picking up this year.

UK Datanote: U.K. Mortgage Approvals, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Beset by political uncertainty; expect a rebound in Q1.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Keeping faith in a pick-up in GDP growth next year.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts and Balance of Payments, Q1 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The biggest contraction for 40 years, even though Q1 contained just nine lockdown days.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts and Balance of Payments, Q2 Nationwide House Prices, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still faring worse than other advanced economies, despite the upward revision to GDP.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts and Balance of Payments, Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A jump in households' saving slowed the economy in Q4.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Minutes of March 10 meeting (Publication Centre)

In one line: No qualms about easing again; look for another cut on March 26.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC meeting, March 19 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A huge QE authorisation; markets are right to welcome the news.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision and Minutes, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The pace of QE is set to fade sharply.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision, Minutes & Monetary Policy Report, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: No changes for now, but more QE likely is coming in June.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Credit growth is picking up; no need for even lower rates.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: The wall of cash should limit near-term corporate insolvencies.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, June, Final 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery will lose momentum before long.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, March, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Understating the slump in production now underway.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, May, Final 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A long way from normal, but moving in the right direction.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, January, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: A glimmer of light between the storm clouds.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, February, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Supply chain disruptions to depress output in the spring.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Higher mortgage rates cast a shadow over the strong recovery in housebuilding.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, April, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: An unprecedented collapse.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, December, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Year-end struggles should give way to stabilisation in Q1.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, November, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Destocking is driving the renewed slowdown.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, September, Final 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Output is nearly back to pre-Covid levels, but it will slip back once backlogs have been cleared.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, March, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Horrendous, and probably not reflecting the full devastation.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, May 2020, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sluggish recovery in activity and falling inflation point to more QE this month.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, November, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably still misleadingly weak.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A Pretty Meaningless Indicator right now.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, January, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with Q1 GDP growth exceeding the MPC's forecast.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, April, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: A total collapse in April, but tentative signs of recovery in other timelier data.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, December, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with an immediate pick-up in activity after the election.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, February, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Cut-off for the survey too early to give a steer on the virus hit to domestic demand.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts, Q3, New Governor Announcement (Publication Centre)

In one line: Upward revision shows GDP growth is only just below its trend.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery primarily driven by lower mortgage rates.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: April's total halt in activity will be followed by an incomplete recovery.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: House price gains are set to strengthen.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong, at least before the virus hit.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Full steam ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably distorted by the exclusion of Black Friday, despite the statisticians' best efforts.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Benefiting from a reallocation of services spending; the overall consumer picture remains bleak.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Shockingly weak, leaving the MPC's January meeting now finely balanced.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Flagging even before the virus hit.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Snapping back after political-related weakness in Q4.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Benefiting from demand displaced by the lockdown.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surveyors expect prices to plunge, though lasting damage isn't inevitable.

UK Datanote: U.K. Trade, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Imports still weak, as firms continue to run down precautionary Brexit stockpiles.

UK Datanote: U.K. Trade, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Trade surpluses won't be the norm.

UK Datanote: U.K. Trade, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Renewed stockpiling to blame for the larger deficit.

UK Datanote: U.K. Trade, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Distorted by precious metals; underlying performance still poor.

UK Datanote: U.K. Summer Statement 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not enough to underpin a V-shaped recovery.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The bounce in buyer interest will fade soon.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with a post-election recovery in activity and prices.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising mortgage rates will bring the market back down to earth.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A collapse that reverses nearly 15 years of growth.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Downward revisions soften the blow from October's data.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stimulus from lower mortgage rates is starting to filter through.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Further evidence that the housing market already had regained momentum before the election.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weakness reflects pre-election nerves; Covid-19, however, has re-written the post-election script.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Starting to shift down; weak confidence points to further falls.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: More evidence of a strong pre-virus recovery.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Expect the market to continue to strengthen.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another positive housing market signal.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Two large consecutive falls aren't a fluke.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still reflecting market conditions only immediately after the lockdown ended.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, March 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: London prices had begun to outperform before the virus shock.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Full-year borrowing remains on course to undershoot the OBR's forecast.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Huge demand for cash will ease over the coming months.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Borrowing undershooting the plans; scope for modest fiscal stimulus next year.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: All was well before COVID-19, but a huge jump in borrowing lies ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still no sign of a slowdown in tax receipt data.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lower mortgage rates are working their magic.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weighed down by political uncertainty.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: More QE needed to facilitate record-high borrowing.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still weighed down by Brexit uncertainty, but next year should be better.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Starting to recover, but facing a long uphill journey.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Only a marginal improvement; June will be the real test of consumer demand.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mildly encouraging, though the survey has stopped being a bellwether.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ending the year on a very weak note.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with falling manufacturing output and a small drop in the PMI.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: A pre-shutdown snapshot; unprecedented falls in sales lie ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Signs of moderate growth unlikely to tip the balance on the MPC.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still hit be regulatory changes; demand should stabilise in 2020.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mixed messages.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still consistent with a consumer recovery in Q1.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another positive sign, though the survey is not a precise guide to the PMI.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Understating the recovery, due to its poor construction.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Marginal decline a prelude to a big drop ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising services inflation strengthens the case against a rate cut.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pick-up driven by volatile computer game prices; the headline rate has further to fall.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Driven lower by the volatile airline fares and hotels components; expect a rebound in Q1.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A big leap towards zero by the summer.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Continued weakness reflects the survey's construction and timing.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably understating the coronavirus hit.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Survey's poor construction means it is always too gloomy at the start of recoveries.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: On course for a 15-to-20% shortfall in car sales in H2.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Brace for a year-long slump in sales.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A huge decline, but timelier data point to a tentative recovery in May.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pointing to a rebound in the official data in December, though Q4 trading was subdued overall.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovering pre-virus.

UK Datanote: U.K. BoE Stimulus Measures (Publication Centre)

In one line: Going big and early.

H2 2017 U.K. Outlook - Weak GDP and Wage Growth Will Keep Higher Interest Rates at Bay (Publication Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

UK Datanote U.K. Retail Sales, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The V-shaped retail sales recovery is unrepresentative of overall spending.

UK Datanote U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Higher mortgage rates will stifle the market before long.

UK Datanote U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lenders likely won't facilitate a lasting surge in sales.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with a big rebound in the official data.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Back to pre-Covid levels, but not for long.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: The post-election recovery in confidence should support car sales soon.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: A recovery should emerge soon.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pent-up demand is starting to be released, but the underlying picture remains weak.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovering consumer confidence should stabilise car sales in 2020.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stalled; expect a slow restart.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A hefty rebound, with a further recovery to come in June.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Depressed by its exclusion of Black Friday this year.

UK Datanote: U.K. Budget (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not holding back.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still on track for a near-zero rate in Q3.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Low inflation entirely due to non-core components.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, August and September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Damage from Covid-19 much clearer, following revisions.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recent slowdown in wage growth likely won't last.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: All was fine before the virus hit, though the election was not a game-changer for labour demand.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, April, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: In suspended animation due to the CJRS; the true damage from COVID-19 will emerge in the autumn.

UK Datanote: U.K. General Election Result (Publication Centre)

In one line: The economy now has a brief window to recover, before the end-2020 Brexit deadline looms large.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: The MPC will see through November's weak print.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Downside surprise all due to erratic construction output; the services sector still is coping well.

UK Datanote: U.K. General Election Exit Poll (Publication Centre)

In one line: Error would have to be unprecedented for the Tories not to win a majority.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, March and April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the headline numbers; claimant count and vacancy data show the Covid-19 pain.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, May and June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A brutal period of layoffs is only starting.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: A big step in the right direction.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A logical rebound, but builders are bracing for an incomplete recovery.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Collapsing, despite no mandatory closures of construction sites.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: The election has given housebuilding a new lease of life.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by election-related indecision in the public sector; expect a recovery 2020.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong enough to make the doves pause for thought.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not subdued enough for the MPC to ease.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A total collapse.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still stagnant after the election, despite the recovery in business confidence.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, December & Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hampered by political uncertainty; clear scope for a Q1 rebound.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Small fall should not bring any comfort.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still at rock bottom, but other indicators suggest a gradual recovery is under way.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Indicative of confidence recovering, if the Withdrawal Agreement is passed quickly.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovering, tentatively.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovering, albeit more tentatively than other survey indicators.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pointing to zero CPI inflation by the summer.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with negligible GDP growth in Q4.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Confidence continuing to recover.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still excessively depressed by political uncertainty.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Reassuringly solid, given virus and weather headwinds.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP & Trade, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: No V-shaped recovery here.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP & Trade, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: No momentum at all before the virus.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP & Trade, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Paying the price for the slow decline in Covid-19 infections from April's peak.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with falling GDP, though it has been too downbeat repeatedly this year.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't take the sub-50 reading literally; output likely is recovering in May, albeit sluggishly.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong enough for the MPC to keep rates on hold next week.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid progress, though the last miles of this marathon recovery will be the hardest.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Record low level signals a very deep recession.

UK Datanote U.K. Retail Sales, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably this year's peak.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another solid performance in Q3.

*March 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Consumers are buckling under high inflation...but the MPC won't add to their woes by hiking rates

*March 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Markets think a May rate hike is almost certain...but activity and inflation data point to a delay

*March 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brexit risk currently is only depressing Capex....Rates need to rise to contain wage cost pressures

*March 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Two-Quarter Recession Now Is Unavoidable...Bolder Stimulus Is Needed To Secure A H2 Recovery

*June 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Recovery To Be Protracted, Despite Policymakers' Efforts...Falling Employment And Capex Will Limit The Rebound In H2

*June 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A no-deal brexit remains an unlikely outcome...An October extension will prodive a rate hike window

*July 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Households' Spending Will Retain Momentum in H2...Another Brexit Extension Remains Likely in October

*July 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Recovery Has Gathered Momentum Since Early June...But Falling Employment And Capex Rule Out A V-Shape

*June 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Real wage falls are slowing the economy...Fears of rate hikes this year are overblown

*May 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Rising Inflation has ended the consumer boom...Investment and Trade won't fill the void

*May 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A rise in inflation will support an August hike....the MPC likely will tighten at a faster rate next year

*November 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Election Won't Lower Brexit Risks Much....But Fiscal Stimulus Will Stop The MPC Cutting Rates

*October 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Rates On Hold Until After the Brexit Deadline...But Two Hikes Likely in 2019, When Capex Rebounds

*October 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

An election is imminent; Parliament is gridlocked....But uncertainty has not hamstrung the economy

*November 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Reviving Capex and Fiscal Policy to Lift Growth...Provided Parliament Averts a No-Deal Brexit

*November 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A year will pass before rates rise again...growth will slow and inflation will fall swiftly

*May 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

No end to the brexit paralysis in sight...but growth will remain strong enough for rate hikes

*May 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Recovery To Be Protracted, Despite Policymakers' Efforts...Consumers Will Be Cautious Long After The Lockdown Ends

*Nov. 2016 - U.K.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Exports won't offset a Consumer Slowdown...Sterling decline has Constrained Policymakers

*July 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Growth won't accelerate until next year...but the MPC is set to hike rates in August anyway

*July 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Growth is too slow to warrant a rate hike...domestically-generated inflation remain weak

*August 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

GDP growth won't accelerate until next year...Low inflation will ease pressure to hike rates again

*August 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

GDP Growth will revive in Q3; The MPC won't ease...MPs will block a no-deal Brexit again in October

*August 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Recovery Will Lose Momentum In The Autumn...As Employment And Capex Fall And Fiscal Support Fades

*Dec. 2016 - U.K.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Consumer and Investment Slowdown Beckons......Tighter Macro Policy will worsen the downturn

*August 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Sterling's fall is hurting more than it's helping...Slow GDP and wage growth will keep the MPC inactive

*April 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Lockdown Is Working; It Will Be Eased In June...But GDP Won't Reach Pre-Virus Levels Until Late 2021

*April 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Rising Inflation is Causing a Sharp Slowdown...Sterling's Depreciation has been Harmful so Far

*April 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

MPC to delay in May due to Q1 GDP and Inflation...Political risks will resurface later this year

*April 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brexit Risk Currently Is Only Depressing Capex...Rates Will Rise Soon To Contain Wage Cost Pressures

*December 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brexit and fiscal headwinds have lessended...but consumers' spending will struggle in 2018

*December 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brexit Risk Increasingly is Hitting the Economy...But Above-Trend Growth Awaits After a Deal is Done

*Jan 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A consumer and investment slowdown beckons...Tighter macro policy will worsen the downturn

*January 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Soft Brexit Remains The Most Likely Outcome....So The MPC Soon Up The Pace Of Tightening

*January 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Reviving Confidence Signals Faster GDP Growth....So The MPC Likely Will Keep Its Powder Dry

*February 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Post-Election Revival In GDP Growth Is On Track....But Brexit Costs Are Real; Expect A 2021 Slowdown

*February 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A No-Deal Brexit Remains an Unlikely Outcome...Growth will Recover in H2, Facilitating Rate Hike

*December 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Economy Will Start 2020 On A Stronger Note...But Brexit Headwinds Will Intensify In H2

*Feb 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Consumer slowdown is under way...Policymakers will not provide more stimulus

*February 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The MPC is mulling hiking rates again soon...but activity and inflation data imply no need to rush

*September 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The MPC talks up raising bank rate soon...but weak wage growth likely will mean it hesitates

*June 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The economy is struggling to rebound in Q2...an August rate hike is far from a done deal

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft average inflation targeting is here.

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, February 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Reassuringly solid, given virus and weather headwinds.

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, January 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong enough for the MPC to keep rates on hold next week.

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Activity is rebounding, but employment still is falling rapidly.

Global Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still on track for a near-zero rate in Q3.

Global Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pick-up driven by volatile computer game prices; the headline rate has further to fall.

Global Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The headline rate will remain sub-1% in the remainder of this year.

Global Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, February 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Marginal decline a prelude to a big drop ahead.

Global Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, January 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising services inflation strengthens the case against a rate cut.

Global Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The end of imputation reveals significant inflation.

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid progress, though the last miles of this marathon recovery will be the hardest.

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, March 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Record low level signals a very deep recession.

*September 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The MPC is Back in "Wait and See" Mode...But Two Hikes Likely in 2019, Provided No-Deal Avoided

Global Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The door remains open to a QE extension in Q4, despite recent data strength.

Global Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision, Minutes & Monetary Policy Report, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: No changes for now, but more QE likely is coming in June.

Global Datanote: U.K. MPC meeting, March 19 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A huge QE authorisation; markets are right to welcome the news.

Global Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The pace of QE is set to fade sharply.

Global Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the upbeat projections; the MPC still has an easing bias.

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't take the sub-50 reading literally; output likely is recovering in May, albeit sluggishly.

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slowing; Eurozone data suggest stagnation is to come.

Global Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit data, January, & BoE statement 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: MPC easing now likely, but expect a more timid response than from other central banks.

Global Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A big leap towards zero by the summer.

Global Datanote: U.K. MPC Minutes of March 10 meeting 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: No qualms about easing again; look for another cut on March 26.

*September 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

An election will not break the brexit deadlock...but the economy won't be weak enough for rate cuts

*September 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

GDP Will Flatline In Q4, Still Well Below Its Peak...Fiscal Support Is Fading Fast; Monetary Stimulus Is Too Weak

23 June. 2016 What Would Happen in the Eurozone if the U.K. Left the EU? (Publication Centre)

People across Europe are growing wary over the failure of governments to foster economic security since the 2008 crisis. Their conclusion increasingly is that the EU is to blame, so their support for EU-sceptic, and even right-wing nationalist, parties has increased accordingly.

26 Feb. 2016 The Foundations of the U.K. Recovery are Remarkably Fragile (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 was left unrevised, but that was the only nugge t of good news from yesterday's second GDP release. The expenditure breakdown hardly could have looked more troubling.

28 March 2017 Could a Rebounding Eurozone Prevent a U.K. Slowdown? (Publication Centre)

Business surveys coming out of the Eurozone have been remarkably strong recently. The composite PMI for the Eurozone jumped to 56.7 in March--its highest level since April 2011--from 56.1 in February. Germany's IFO business climate index leaped to a 67-month high in March.

Global Datanote: U.K. Budget March 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not holding back.

EZ Datanote U.K. Public Finances, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Borrowing is set to hit 20% of GDP this year.

8 Dec. 2015 Productivity Growth Still too Weak to Prevent Inflation Rebound (Publication Centre)

By any yardstick, U.K. productivity growth has been terrible in recent years. Output per hour exceeded its pre-recession peak only in the second quarter of 2015, and it has grown at an average annual rate of just 0.6% this decade. U.S. productivity growth has been equally dismal since 2010. But the U.K.'s performance is more worrying, because the productivity slump during the recession suggested scope for a period of catch-up. In the U.S., by contrast, productivity surged during the recession as firms cut headcount sharply.

8 August. 2016 The Term Funding Scheme is Not a Game-Changer (Publication Centre)

Economists failed to foresee the U.K.'s growth spurt in 2013 partly because they underestimated the positive impact of the Funding for Lending Scheme, launched in mid-2012. In fact, the FLS was so successful at stimulating mortgage lending that it had to be "refocussed" to apply solely to business lending in January 2014.

22 June. 2016 Resilient EZ Survey Data Ahead, but Sentiment Would Fall on Brexit (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ZEW investor sentiment in Germany shows showed no signs that uncertainty over the U.K. referendum is taking its toll on EZ investors. The expectations index surged to 19.2 in June, from 6.4 in May, the biggest month-to-month jump since January last year, when investors were eagerly expecting the ECB's QE announcement.

19 April 2017 Another Political Hand Grenade is Thrown in European Politics (Publication Centre)

Economic news in Europe continues to take a back-seat to volatility in politics. Yesterday's announcement by U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May that she is seeking a snap general election on June 8th cast further doubt over what exactly Brexit will look like.

23 June. 2016 Brexit Would Trigger a Dollar Surge, But it's an Unlikely Outcome (Publication Centre)

With most poll-of-poll measures showing a very narrow margin in the U.K. Brexit referendum, while betting markets show a huge majority for "Remain", today brings a live experiment in the idea that the wisdom of crowds is a better guide to elections than peoples' preferences.

9 August. 2016 London Will Continue to Bear the Brunt of the Downturn (Publication Centre)

London has been the U.K.'s growth star for the last two decades. Between 1997 and 2014, yearover-year growth in nominal Gross Value Added averaged 5.4% in London, greatly exceeding the 4% rate across the rest of the country. Surveys since the referendum, however, indicate that the capital is at the sharp end of the post-referendum downturn.

21 June. How Soon Will we Know the Referendum Result? (Publication Centre)

Investors will have to keep their wits about them following the close of polls at 22:00 BST on Thursday. Sterling and other asset prices will move sharply when the likely result of the U.K.'s E.U. referendum is discernible, but exactly when that point will come during the night is uncertain.

6 September. 2016 Too Soon to Breathe a Sigh of Relief on Recession Risk (Publication Centre)

The improvement in the August services PMI has generated hyperbolic headlines suggesting the U.K. is on a tear despite the Brexit vote. Taken literally, however, the PMIs suggest that the revival in business activity in August only partially reversed July's decline. Meanwhile, the impact of sterling's sharp depreciation on the purchasing power of firms and consumers has only just begun to be felt.

30 June. 2016 The Fed's Focus Will Return to the Wage Outlook, Unchanged by Brexit (Publication Centre)

We aren't materially changing our U.S. economic forecasts in the wake of the U.K.'s Brexit vote, though we have revised our financial forecasts. The net tightening of financial conditions in the U.S. since the referendum is just not big enough--indeed, it's nothing like big enough--to justify moving our economic forecasts.

30 September 2016 Britain is Turning to Debt to Maintain an Illusion of Prosperity (Publication Centre)

Today's balance of payments figures for the second quarter likely will underline that the U.K. has financed strong growth in domestic consumption by amassing debts with the rest of the world at a breakneck pace.

5 July. 2016 EZ Manufacturing Will Lose Out if the Brexit Fallout Increases (Publication Centre)

It will take months, and perhaps years, before markets have any clarity on the U.K.'s new relationship with the EU. In the U.K., the main parties remain shell-shocked. Both leading candidates for the Tory leadership, and, hence, the post of Prime Minister, have said that they would wait before triggering Article 50.

12 Feb. 2016 Collapse in Equity Prices Still Not a Convincing Signal of Recession (Publication Centre)

The downturn in equity prices deepened yesterday, with the FTSE 100 index closing at 5,537, 22% below its April 2015 peak. We remain unconvinced, however, that financial market turmoil is set to push the U.K. economy into a recession. We continue to take comfort from the weakness of the past relationship between equity prices and economic activity.

3 May. How Far Would Sterling Fall if Britain Chose Brexit? (Publication Centre)

Most of the time, sterling broadly tracks a path implied by the difference between markets' expectations for interest rates in the U.K. and overseas. During the financial crisis, however, sterling fell much further than interest rate differentials implied, as our first chart shows.

27 June. 2016 Plunging Investment Will Be the Main Driver of the Brexit Downturn (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s political situation is extremely fluid, so it would be risky automatically to assume that the U.K. is heading for Brexit. Although the Prime Minister has resigned, his attempt to hold out until October to begin the formal process of exiting the E.U. signals that he may be seeking to engineer a revised deal, or at least to force his successor to make the momentous decision of whether to trigger Article 50, to begin the leaving process.

27 June. 2016 Brexit Constrains Fed, but Limited U.S. Fallout Means December is Live (Publication Centre)

By the close on Friday, the initial reaction in U.S. markets to the U.K. Brexit vote could be characterized as a bad day at the office, but nothing worse. Not a meltdown, not a catastrophe, no exposure of suddenly dangerous fault lines.That's not to say all danger has passed, but the first hurdle has been overcome.

9 September. 2016 iPhone Price Hike Underlines Incoming In ation Shock (Publication Centre)

The consequences of sterling's sharp depreciation for inflation were brought home yesterday by the news that the iPhone 7 will cost more than its predecessor. The entry-level version is priced at £60 more than its iPhone 6S equivalent. Of course, the new version is more advanced, but the fact that the dollar price held steady, at $649, demonstrates the U.K. price hike entirely is due to the adverse impact of the weaker pound.

27 June. 2016 Life After Brexit: LatAm Suffers Higher Volatility, But Will Survive (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s unexpected decision to vote to leave the E.U. will have serious ramifications for the global economy, and LatAm economies are unlikely to emerge unscathed. It is very difficult to quantify the short-term effects due to the intricacies of the financial transmission channels into the real economy.

27 Apr. Markets' View that Brexit Odds Have Declined Looks Premature (Publication Centre)

Sterling has rallied against both the dollar and the euro over the last week on the assumption that interventions by the U.K. Treasury and President Obama in the Brexit debate have shifted public opinion towards remaining in the E.U.

19 Feb. 2016 The Main EZ Economies Will Try to Accommodate Mr. Cameron (Publication Centre)

Talks between the EU and the U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron are expected to culminate with a deal today, but we doubt this week's summit will be the final word. A detailed re-negotiation of the U.K.'s relationship with the EU is the last thing the large continental economies need at the moment.

11 Dec. 2015 The MPC is Independent, But it Cannot Ignore Other Central Banks (Publication Centre)

The MPC's asserted its independence in the minutes of December's meeting, firmly stating that there is "no mechanical link between UK policy and those of other central banks". Markets have interpreted this as supporting their view that the MPC won't be rushed into raising interest rates by the Fed's actions. Investors now expect a nine-month gap between the Fed hike we anticipate next week, and the first move in the U.K.

15 July. 2016 Autos Will Depress Headline June Spending, Core Picture is Fine (Publication Centre)

When the dust settles after today's wave of data, we expect to have learned that core retail sales continued to rise in June, core inflation nudged back up to its cycle high, and manufacturing output rebounded after an auto-led drop in May. None of these reports will be enough to push the Fed into early action, but they will add to the picture of a reasonably solid domestic economy ahead of the U.K. Brexit referendum.

13 Jan. 2016 Sterling Has Not Priced-in Brexit Risks Yet, Despite Recent Plunge (Publication Centre)

Claims abound that sterling's sharp depreciation since the start of the year--to its lowest level against the dollar since May 2010--partly reflects the growing risk that the U.K. will vote to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum. We see little evidence to support this assertion. Sterling's decline to date can be explained by the weakness of the economic data, meaning that scope remains for Brexit fears to push the currency even lower this year.

19 Apr. Are the Treasury's Brexit Calculations Plausible? (Publication Centre)

The Treasury waded in to the Brexit debate yesterday with a 200-page report concluding that U.K. GDP would be 6.2% lower in 2030 than otherwise if Britain left the E.U. and entered into a bilateral trade deal similar to the one recently agreed by Canada. All long-term economic projections should come with health warnings, and the Treasury's precise numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt.

11 Nov. 2015 The Revival in North Sea Oil Production Won't Last (Publication Centre)

The large unexpected surge in oil and gas output this year has boosted the overall economic recovery significantly. But this looks like the last hurrah for a sector of the U.K. economy in terminal decline.

17 January 2017 Will Policymakers Act to Stop Sterling Falling Further? (Publication Centre)

Sterling weakened further yesterday as anxiety grew that PM Theresa May will indicate she is seeking a "clean and hard Brexit" in a speech today. This could mean the U.K. leaves the EU's single market and customs union, in order to control immigration, shake off the jurisdiction of the European Court and have a free hand in trade negotiations with other countries.

13 June. 2016 Banxico's Dilemma: Help the Recovery or Support the MXN? (Publication Centre)

Markets are still discounting Banxico rate increases in the near term, despite the fact that Mexico's inflation is under control. Unless the MXN goes significantly above 18.7 per USD in the near term, or activity accelerates, we see little scope for rate increases until after the Fed hikes. After May's soft U.S. payrolls, and in light of the economic and financial risk posed by the U.K. referendum, we think a hike this week is unlikely.

16 Dec. 2015 The Cyclical Rise in Labour Participation Has Run Its Course (Publication Centre)

Rapid growth in labour supply has enabled the U.K. economy to grow quickly over the last three years without generating excessive wage or inflation pressure. The rise in the participation rate--the proportion of those aged over 16 in or looking for work--has been critical to this revival. But the rise in the participation rate largely has reflected cyclical factors rather than a sustainable upward trend, and the downward pressure on participation from demographic factors will build over the coming years.

17 June. Price Rises Will Soon Call Time on the Retail Sales Splurge (Publication Centre)

Sharp increases in retail sales over the last two months suggest that consumers are not overly concerned by the risk that the U.K. could leave the E.U. next week. Sales volumes rose 0.9% month-on-month in May, and April's surge was revised larger, to 1.9% from 1.3%.

18 Apr. Britain's Employment Miracle is Finally Losing its Shine (Publication Centre)

One of the most eye-catching features of the U.K.'s economic recovery has been the strength of job creation. It took seven-to-eight years for employment to return to its pre-recession peaks after the recessions of the early 1980s and 1990s. By contrast, employment rescaled its 2008 peak in mid-2012, and it has risen by a further 6% since.

18 Dec. 2015 Sterling Still a Major Constraint on Growth, Despite Its Recent Decline (Publication Centre)

The growing perception that the U.K. MPC will lag further behind the U.S. Fed in this tightening cycle than previously has pushed sterling down to $1.49, a long way below its post-recession peak of $1.72 in mid-2014. But this has done little to enhance the overall competitiveness of U.K. exports, and net trade still looks likely to exert a major drag on real GDP growth in 2016.

3 January 2017 Slowing Real Income Growth Will Define the 2017 U.K. Economy (Publication Centre)

The U.K. economy retained its momentum last year, despite the seismic shock of the vote to leave the EU. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth averaged 0.5% in the first three quarters of 2016, matching 2015's rate and the average pace of growth across the Atlantic.

27 November 2019 Global Monitor Don't assume the U.K. election is done and dusted (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Only three outcomes of the Trump impeachment process • EUROZONE - EZ GDP growth has stabilised; what happens next? • U.K. - The Tories have a strong lead in the polls, but it will narrow in due course • ASIA - Fiscal stimulus in Japan means a return to the bad old days • LATAM - More rate cuts ahead in Mexico

4 April 2017 The Spanish and U.K. Navies won't Have to Fight over Gibraltar (Publication Centre)

The EU's negotiations with the U.K. over Brexit are off to a bad start. The position in Brussels is that negotiations on a new relationship can't begin before the bill on the U.K.'s existing membership is settled. But this has been met with resistance by Westminster; the U.K. does not recognise the condition of an upfront payment to leave.

12 Dec 2019 Spare a Moment for Ms. Lagarde, as We Await the Final U.K. Polls (Publication Centre)

The U.K. general election is the main event in today's European calendar, but the first official ECB meeting and press conference under the leadership of Ms. Lagarde also deserves attention.

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.K. Pay Growth Flattens Off (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Pay Growth and Unemployment

30 June. 2016 Political Vacuum in the U.K. Prompts the EU to Up the Pressure (Publication Centre)

Leaders of the major Eurozone economies were in no mood to give concessions as they met with outgoing U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron this week for the first time since the referendum. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that she sees "no way back from the Brexit vote." This followed comments that the U.K. couldn't be expected to "cherry-pick" the EU rules that it would like to follow after a new deal.

30 May 2018 Does Italy's Crisis Really Mean Slower U.K. Rate Hikes? (Publication Centre)

Investors have concluded that Italy's political crisis will compel the U.K. MPC to increase interest rates even more gradually than they thought previously.

12 August 2020 Global Monitor We take no comfort in the U.K. employment data (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Robust July payrolls, but the data will be worse in August and September • EUROZONE - What can investor sentiment tell us about the economy? • U.K. - The data will force the MPC to pivot towards more QE in Q4 • ASIA - The Asian economics team is on vacation • LATAM - Brazilian rates are on hold, for a long time

11 September 2019 Global Monitor The U.K. prime minister is down, but not out (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The trade war is starting to hurt; payroll growth will fall further • EUROZONE - The EZ economy is carrying weak manufacturing...for now • U.K. - Can the Conservatives hold on their lead in the polls? • ASIA - More stimulus is coming in China • LATAM - Low inflation is still allowing LatAm central banks to ease

U.K. Webinar December 2019: How will the general election affect markets, Brexit and the MPC? (Media Centre)

With just one week to go, our Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs will assess the likelihood of potential general election outcomes and their implications for financial market, Brexit and monetary policy

24 June. Initial Thoughts on the U.K.'s Shock Brexit Vote (Publication Centre)

Britain's shock vote to leave the E.U. has unleashed a wave of economic and political uncertainty that likely will drive the U.K. into recession.

21 Dec. 2015 How Vulnerable is the U.K. to a Current Account Crisis? (Publication Centre)

The latest balance of payments figures, released Wednesday, look set to show that the current account deficit widened in Q3, underlying the U.K.'s vulnerability to a sudden change in overseas investor sentiment. The risk of a full-blown sterling crisis, however, is lower than the enormous current account deficit would appear to suggest.

20 Oct 2020 Will U.K. Equities Reverse their Underperformance After a Brexit Deal? (Publication Centre)

U.K. equities have been unable to catch a break this year.

19 Aug 2020 The U.K.'s Underperformance is Not a Statistical Mirage (Publication Centre)

The Covid-19 downturn has been more severe in the U.K. than in most other advanced economies this year.

05 May. 2015 Eurozone Q1 GDP beat the U.S. and the U.K., But It Won't Last (Publication Centre)

Advance data indicate that Q1 annualized GDP growth in the U.S. was a trivial 0.2%. And in the U.K., annualized growth is estimated to have slowed to 1.2%, from 2.4% in Q4.

22 June 2017 Are we headed toward an extension of the U.K.'s EU membership? (Publication Centre)

The EU has had a better start to the Brexit negotiations than its counterpart across the Channel. The risk of disagreement within the EU on the details with of the U.K.'s exit is high, but the Continent has presented a united front so far, mainly because Mr. Macron and Mrs. Merkel agree on the broad objectives. They have no interest in punishing the U.K., but they are also keen to show that exiting the EU has costs for a country which leaves.

10 Dec. 2015 Lower Oil Prices are Only Modestly Positive for the U.K. Economy (Publication Centre)

The U.K. is one of the smallest winners among advanced economies from the precipitous decline in oil prices. British oil production still fulfils about 55% of the U.K.'s demand, even though it has declined by two-thirds since its 1999 peak. Oil consumption therefore exceeds production by a much smaller margin in the U.K. than in most other European countries. As a result, the boost to the U.K. economy from the $10 decline in oil prices over the last month isn't much to write home about.

11 December 2017 The EU and the U.K. Have a Deal, Now Comes the Difficult Bit (Publication Centre)

The 16-page document--see here--detailing the agreement allowing the EU and the U.K. to move forward in the Brexit negotiations is predictably tedious.

24 July 2020 U.K. Equities are Becoming Ever More Unloved, Chiefly Due to Brexit (Publication Centre)

U.K. equities are falling ever further out of favour.

24 August 2017 Second Estimate of Q2 GDP to Show U.K. Missing out on G7 Boom (Publication Centre)

We expect today's second estimate of Q2 GDP to confirm that the U.K. has been the slowest growing G7 economy this year.

23 Oct. 2015 U.K. Consumer Recovery is Not as Robust as Retail Sales Suggest (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the surge in retail sales volumes in September suggests that the U.K. consumer is in fine fettle and can prevent the economic recovery from losing momentum as exporters struggle and government spending retrenches. But the underlying picture is less encouraging and consumers won't be able to sustain the recent robust growth in real spending when inflation revives next year.

13 May Global Monitor 2020 More QE is coming in the U.K. (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The April NFP report was terrible; reality is worse • EUROZONE - How to spy to a rebound in the EZ economy • U.K. - The BOE will boost its QE program in due course • ASIA - China's 2020 budget deficit is set to soar • LATAM - Brazil is suffering from the government's Covid-19 mismanagement

30th September 2020 Global Monitor Spot the incentive to fire workers in the U.K. (Publication Centre)

• U.S.- 36 Days to go, who will win, and what will they do • EUROZONE - The PMIs point to a stalling recovery, but other surveys beg to differ • U.K.- The new job-retention scheme won't prevent a sharp rise in unemployment • ASIA - Controversial agricultural reforms in India deserve a shot • LATAM - More rate cuts on the way from Banxico

5 Feb 2020 What Does the EU Want out of Trade Negotiations with the U.K. (Publication Centre)

The opening gambits in the post-Brexit trade negotiations were played earlier this week, in speeches from U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier.

7 Feb 2020 Are U.K. Equities Still Trading at a Big Brexit-related Discount? (Publication Centre)

The rally in U.K. equities immediately after the general election has done little to reverse the prolonged period of underperformance relative to overseas markets since the E.U. referendum in June 2016.

7 September. 2016 How Will the U.K. Resolve the Immigration,Trade Dilemma? (Publication Centre)

Following the summer recess, the U.K. Government has turned to the unenviable task of weighing up how much economic pain to endure in order to reduce immigration. The Government's insistence that Brexit "must mean controls on the numbers of people who come to Britain from Europe" suggests it is prepared to sacrifice access to the single market in order to appease public opinion.

U.K. H2 2019 Outlook - A no-deal Brexit remains unlikely - uncertainty alone won't cause the economy to stagnate (Publication Centre)

Our Brexit base case is that the new Prime Minister will request, and the E.U. will grant, another lengthy extension of the U.K.'s membership in October, thereby perpetuating damaging uncertainty, but avoiding the pain of no-deal.

9 October 2019 Global Monitor A general election in the U.K. is on the way, but who will win? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The tide is turning for the worse in the U.S. labour market • EUROZONE - Looking for bright spots in German manufacturing • U.K. - The Tories are ahead in the polls, but the gap will narrow in Q4 • ASIA - What is China's strategy in the trade wars? • LATAM - The recovery in Brazil continues, but it is stalling in Mexico

U.K. (Publication Centre)

U.K. Document Vault

U.K. Webinars (Publication Centre)

U.K. Webinar Vault

BBC - Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Growth slowdown (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs Discussing the UK Growth Slowdown

BLOOMBERG - Brexit vote wreaks havoc on U.K. Economy (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K PMIs

Reuters. - U.K. house prices fall for second month in January (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. house prices

Business Insider U.K. - These 4 charts will define the British economy at the start of 2018 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Economy in 2018

*Oct. 2016 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Inflation and Brexit risks will subdue growth.....Policy action won't prevent a slowdown

Business Insider U.K. - The best of 2018 may already be over for the pound (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing sterling in 2018

Sunday Times - David Smith: Forecasters were too upbeat on growth in 2019 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs ranked as one of the top U.K. Economic Forecasters in 2019

Financial Times - Mortgage borrowing rise signals stabilisation in UK house market (Media Centre)

Chief UK Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Mortgage Borrowing

Bloomberg Radio - Westminster: LibDems - Labour is Spend, Spend Spend (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs, Chief U.K. Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics crunches the figures from the manifestos and tracks sterling against the latest opinion polls.

U.K. Webinar July 2020: How Long Will The MPC Keep Its Foot On The Gas? (Media Centre)

How Long Will The MPC Keep Its Foot On The Gas?

Pantheon ranked top forecaster of the U.K. economy in 2018

We are pleased to announce that our Chief U.K. Economist, Samuel Tombs, was ranked the most accurate forecaster of the U.K. economy in 2018 by The Sunday Times.

Reuters - UK business malaise deepened before election - PMI (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

BBC News - House prices see largest monthly fall for 11 years, says Nationwide (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K House Prices

The Guardian - FTSE loses another £35bn as coronavirus rattles global markets (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the Coronavirus effect on the U.K. economy

Guardian - UK economy already flatlining before coronavirus, figures reveal (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP in February

New York Times - UK Retailers Report Smaller Drop in Annual Sales in May (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K Retail Sales in May

BBC NEWS - UK growth rebound eases recession fears (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest GDP figures

Reuters - UK economy flat-lines, hit by Brexit and global slowdown, as election nears (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. GDP

Reuters - British economy on track for biggest contraction 'in living memory' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

Reuters - Rising UK unemployment pressures Sunak to renew job support (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist on U.K. Unemployment Q2

BBC News - Wages back above pre-economic crisis levels (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Employment

Reuters - UK inflation hits four-year low on oil price fall, COVID impact (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K Inflation

Reuters - UK retailers suffer worst September on record, BRC says (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales

BBC NEWS - UK employment hits another record high (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest employment figures

The Times - City expects new chancellor to turn on the spending taps (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing next months budget

The Guardian - Charity shop and antique purchases drive up UK retail sales (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in June

NY Times - UK Inflation Bolsters View Central Bank Will Not Cut Rates (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

Sky News - Fuel prices push inflation to unexpected six-month high (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. CPI

The Guardian - UK house prices make surprise 5.9% rise in February, Halifax says (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Halifax House Prices

Financial Times - European economic sentiment tumbled in early March (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Economic Sentiment

Financial Times - UK manufacturing contraction eases in May (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K Manufacturing in May

The Times - Shock deterioration in building sector knocks sterling (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Construction in June

Financial Times - UK manufacturing down to lowest capacity utilisation rate on record (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Unemployment

Financial Times - Economists split over impact of UK election outcome (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Election

The Times - Services sector enjoys Boris bounce (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. PMIs in December

BBC News - Retail sales fall sharply in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in November

BBC - House prices slip in May in subdued market (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

City A.M. - UK economy set to return to growth in third quarter after coronavirus chaos (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K PMI

BBC NEWS - UK 'at risk of slipping into recession' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest PMI data

BBC NEWS - Inflation surprise as computer game prices drop (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation Growth

BBC - Manufacturing shrinks as Brexit stockpiling halts (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

Financial Times - Uncertainty puts brakes on UK car market (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Automotive Industry

BBC News - Coronavirus: UK economy 'set for deepest downturn in memory' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

BBC News - Bank of England keeps interest rates on hold (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Bank of England Interest Rates

BBC News - Weak November weighs on UK growth (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

Financial Times. - Inflation ticks up for first time since January (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K CPI

Financial Times - UK retail sales weak before coronavirus lockdown (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in February

2 December. 2016 Sterling's Depreciation Has Not Been a Boon for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

The deterioration of the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey in November should temper optimism about the potential benefits of sterling's depreciation. The PMI fell to 53.4 in November, from 54.2 in October.

16 Feb. 2016 The ECB Remains on Track to Deliver More Easing in March (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi's introductory statement before yesterday's hearing at the European Parliament repeated that the ECB will "review and possibly reconsider its monetary policy stance in March." But it didn't provide any conclusive smoking gun that further easing is a done deal.

16 September 2016 Evidence of a Slowdown in EZ New Car Sales is Mounting (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data on EZ car sales added to the evidence that consumers' spending is slowing. We now reckon sales will rise by 1% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, after gains averaging 2.6% in the first half of the year.

18 July. 2016 Chile and Peru Hold Interest Rates, Hikes Will Come but not Until 2017 (Publication Centre)

Central banks in Chile and Peru kept their reference rates unchanged last week, as expected, as inflation pressures in both countries are starting to ease. But different economic outlooks are emerging. Chile's economy continues to disappoint, while Peru's is picking up. Indeed, Peru is the only country in the region with clear positive momentum.

18 July. 2016 EZ Car Registrations Continue to Grow Briskly, But Will Slow Soon (Publication Centre)

Growth in new EZ car registrations slowed last month, but the data continue to tell a story of strong consumer demand for new cars. New registrations in the euro area rose 6.9% y/y in June, down from a 16.9% jump in May, mainly due to slowing growth in France. New registrations in the euro area's second largest economy rose a mere 0.8% year-over-year, after a 22% surge in May.

18 May. 2016 Did the FOMC Discuss Brexit Risk at the April Meeting? (Publication Centre)

The April FOMC statement dropped the March assertion that "global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks" to the U.S. economy, even though growth "appears to have slowed". Instead policymakers pointed out that "labor conditions have improved further", perhaps suggesting they don't take the weak-looking March data at face value. We certainly don't.

15 September 2016 A Critical 12 Months Ahead for the EU (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's State of the Union address by EC president Jean-Claude Juncker commanded more attention than usual, but contained little news on the key talking points for investors.

19 September 2016 Construction Investment Will Boost EZ GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Construction data in the Eurozone usually don't attract much attention, but today's July report will provide encouraging news, compared with recent poor manufacturing data. We think construction output leapt 2.1% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 2.3%, from 0.7% in June. This strong start to the third quarter was due mainly to a jump in non-residential building activity in France and Germany.

13 June. Does the Flattening Yield Curve Signal Recession? (Publication Centre)

The collapse in gilt yields last week--including a drop to a record low at the 10-year maturity--appears to be an ominous sign for the economic outlook. For now, though, the yield curve signals a further easing of GDP growth, rather than a spiral into recession. Low liquidity also means modest changes in demand are generating large movements in yields, undermining gilts' usefulness as a leading indicator.

11 January 2017 Import Substitution Will Be Modest, Despite Sterling's Depreciation (Publication Centre)

A year has now elapsed since sterling began its precipitous descent, and the trade data still have not improved. Net trade subtracted 0.9 percentage points from year-over-year growth in GDP in Q3. And while the trade deficit of £2.0B in October was the smallest since May, this followed extraordinarily large deficits in the previous two months. In fact, the trade deficit has been on a slightly deteriorating trend over the last year, as our first chart shows, and we expect today's data to show that the deficit re-widened to about £3.5B in November.

11 May. Will March Industrial Production Break the Run of Bad News? (Publication Centre)

The popular belief that economists rarely agree about anything is reinforced by the extremely wide dispersion of forecasts for March industrial production. The forecasts range from the wildly optimistic prediction of a 1.9% month-to-month rise, to a downright miserable 0.3% decline. We think production rose by about 0.5% month-to-month, and this likely will be interpreted as a decent result, following the recent run of bad news.

10 August. 2016 Trade Data Show Depreciations Take Time to Boost Growth (Publication Centre)

June's trade figures yesterday highlighted that it takes more than just a few months for exchange rate depreciations to boost GDP growth. The trade-weighted sterling index dropped by 9% between November and June as the risk of Brexit loomed large and the prospect of imminent increases in interest rates receded.

09 Feb. 2016 How Robust is the Case for Expecting Lower Rates? (Publication Centre)

Investors currently think that official interest rates are more likely to fall than rise this year. Overnight index swap markets are factoring in a 30% chance of a rate cut by December, but just a 1% chance of an increase by year-end. The case for expecting looser monetary policy, however, remains unconvincing.

02 Feb. 2016 Is the Recovery in Business Investment About to Fizzle Out? (Publication Centre)

Business investment has been resilient to the slowdown in the wider economy so far, with year-over-year growth in the first three quarters of 2015 averaging a very respectable 6.2%. Outside the oil sector, firms are generating healthy profits and can borrow cheaply.

04 Feb. 2016 Inflation Report Unlikely to Support the Markets' Dovish Pricing (Publication Centre)

The recent slide in market interest rates suggests investors expect the Monetary Policy Committee--MPC--to strike a dovish note today, when the decision and minutes of this week's meeting are released and the Inflation Report is published, at 12.00 GMT.

12 July. 2016 EZ Credit Markets Are Surging, But Equities Can't Keep Up (Publication Centre)

Eurozone capital markets have been split across the main asset classes this year. Equity investors have had a nightmare. The MSCI EU ex-UK index is down 10.6% year-to-date, a remarkably poor performance given additional QE from the ECB and stable GDP growth. Corporate bonds, on the other hand, are sizzling.

12 May. 2016 EZ Inflation Expectations are Low, But Will Creep Higher Soon (Publication Centre)

The renewed decline in bond EZ bond yields has raised the question of whether inflation expectations will recover at all in this cycle. We think they will, and we also believe 10-year yields will rise towards 1%-to-1.2% towards the end of the year. But two factors will keep inflation expectations and yields in check in the near term.

13 September 2016 Sterling is Already Stoking Price Pressures, More to Come (Publication Centre)

August's consumer price figures, released today, likely will show that households' spending power is being increasingly eroded by rising inflation. We think CPI inflation picked up to 0.8%, from 0.6% in July, exceeding the consensus, 0.7%, for the third consecutive month.

15 Apr. Nothing in MPC Minutes to Support Rate Cut Speculation (Publication Centre)

The minutes of yesterday's MPC meeting indicate that it is not going to be panicked into cutting interest rates in the run-up to the E.U. referendum in June. The Committee voted unanimously again to keep Bank Rate at 0.5%, and dovish comments were conspicuously absent.

13 October. 2016 The Chancellor Won't Set Fiscal Policy to Boost Growth Next Year (Publication Centre)

Many commentators have assumed that the new Chancellor's pledge to "reset" fiscal policy and to stop targeting a budget surplus in this parliament means that fiscal policy will support growth in economic activity next year.

13 July. 2016 German Inflation is Rising, but Will Bund Yields Pay Attention? (Publication Centre)

The final June inflation report from Germany yesterday confirmed that pressures are rising. Inflation rose to 0.3% year-over-year in June, up from 0.1% in May, mainly due to higher energy prices. Household energy prices--utilities--fell 4.9% year-over-year, up from a 5.7% decline in May, while deflation in petrol prices eased to -9.4%, up from -12.1% in May.

13 December 2018 Assuming the PM Wins, the Path to a Softer Brexit Will Become Clearer (Publication Centre)

After seemingly endless speculation, the confidence vote in Theresa May's leadership of the Conservative party finally has been triggered following the submission of at least 48 letters by disgruntled MPs to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee.

13 Jan. 2016 Even Senior Creditors are Not Safe in the Eurozone Banking Industry (Publication Centre)

Investors in Eurozone banks continue to face uncertain times, despite the ECB's best efforts to prop up the economy and financial markets via QE. The latest hit to confidence comes from the bail-in of selected senior debt in Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo. When the troubled lender was restructured in mid-2014, the equity and junior debt were left in a "bad" bank--and were virtually wiped out--while the deposits and senior debt went into the "good" bank Novo Banco. Senior debt holders expecting to recoup their money, however, were startled earlier this month by the decision to "re-assign" five selected bonds with total face value of €2B from Novo Banco to the bad bank, in effect wiping out the investors.

15 Dec. 2015 Solid Industrial Production in the Eurozone Given Global Weakness (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in Eurozone had a decent start to the fourth quarter. Output ex-construction rose 0.6% month-to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.9% from a revised 1.3% in September. Production was lifted by gains in the major economies, and surging output in the Netherlands, Portugal and Lithuania. Across sectors, increases in production of capital and consumer goods were the main drivers, but energy output also helped, due to a cold spell lifting demand and production in France.

20 September 2016 The Recycling of the EZ's Current Account Surplus Continues (Publication Centre)

The external surplus in the EZ economy slipped in July. The seasonally-adjusted current account surplus dropped to €21.0B, from a revised €29.5B in June, hit by an increase in the current transfers deficit, and a falling trade surplus. The recent increase in the transfers deficit partly is due to the migrant deal with Turkey, and we expect it to remain elevated.

4 May. The MPC Won't Cut Rates to Alleviate the Manufacturing Slump (Publication Centre)

The nosedive in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI in April provides an early sign that GDP growth is likely to slow even further in the second quarter. The MPC, however, looks set to keep its powder dry. We continue to think that the next move in interest rates will be up, towards the end of this year.

5 Nov. 2015 A Rebound in German New Orders? But the Trend is Subdued (Publication Centre)

Factory orders in Germany probably jumped in September, following a string of losses in the beginning of Q3. We think new orders rose 1.0% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate slightly lower, to 1.8% from 2.0% in August. A rebound in non- Eurozone export orders likely will be the key driver of the monthly gain, following a 14.8% cumulative plunge in the previous two months. The rise will be concentrated in capital and consumer goods, and should be enough to offset a fall in export orders within the euro area. Our forecast is consistent with new orders falling 2.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, partly reversing the 3.0% surge in the second quarter, and raising downside risks for production in Q4.

6 November 2018 Should the PMIs' Gloomy Prognosis be Trusted This Time? (Publication Centre)

October's Markit/CIPS services survey added to evidence that the economy has started Q4 on a very weak footing.

31 October. 2016 MPC Likely to Reaffirm Easing Bias, to Markets Surprise (Publication Centre)

The MPC would have to change tack sharply on Thursday in order to live up to the markets' expectation that there is a near-zero chance of another rate cut within the next year.

31 May. Are House Prices Near a Ceiling, or Just Temporarily Slowing? (Publication Centre)

Housing market activity has weakened sharply over the last two months. Indeed, figures this week likely will reveal that mortgage approvals plunged in April and that house price growth slowed in May. The increase in stamp duty for buy-to-let purchases at the start of April and Brexit risk, however, entirely explain the slowdown.

29 Apr 2020 Would a Depreciation of Sterling be Stimulative this Time? (Publication Centre)

Sterling's shaky performance so far this year-- the trade-weighted index currently is 3% below its end-2019 level and was down 8% at the peak of the mid-March market frenzy--raises the question of whether a renewed depreciation would have a better chance of boosting GDP growth than last time.

30 January 2018 Is Sterling's Strong Start to 2018 Warranted? (Publication Centre)

Sterling has begun this year on the front foot, rising last week to its highest level against the U.S. dollar since June 2016.

31 August. 2016 German Core Inflation Slipped in August, but Should Rebound Soon (Publication Centre)

The upward trend in German inflation stalled temporarily in August, with an unchanged 0.4% year-over-year reading in August. A dip in core inflation likely offset a continued increase in energy price inflation. The detailed final report next month will give the full story, but state data suggest that the core rate was depressed by a dip in price increases of household appliances, restaurant services, as well as "other goods and services."

7 Apr 2020 The Trio of March Data Looks Bad, But Worse is to Come in April (Publication Centre)

A trio of data releases yesterday provided no relief from the run of abysmal economic news.

7 Dec. 2015 German Factory Orders are Slowing, Despite October's Jump (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing activity in Germany rebounded at the start of the fourth quarter, following a miserable Q3. New orders jumped 1.8% month-to-month in October, lifted by increases in consumer and capital goods orders, both domestic and export. But the year-over-year rate fell to -1.4%, from a revised -0.7% in September, due to unfavorable base effects, and the three-month trend remained below zero. Our first chart shows that non-Eurozone export orders are the key drag, with export orders to other euro area economies doing significantly better.

UK Datanote: Markit CIPS Construction Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Overall stagnation masks sub-sector divergence.

20 April 2017 Don't Miss Today's Soaring Eurozone Construction Data (Publication Centre)

Markets tend to ignore Eurozone construction data, but we suspect today's report will be an exception to that rule. Our first chart shows that we're forecasting a 8.5% month-to-month leap in February EZ construction output, and we also expect an upward revision to January's numbers.

Samuel Tombs

Samuel Tombs has more than a decade of experience covering the U.K. economy for investors. At Pantheon, Samuel's research is rigorous, free of dogma and jargon, and unafraid to challenge consensus views. His work focuses on what matters to professional investors: The links between the real economy, monetary policy and asset prices. He has a strong track record of getting the big calls right. The Sunday Times ranked Samuel as the most accurate forecaster of the U.K. economy in both 2014 and 2018. In addition, Bloomberg consistently has ranked Samuel as one of the top three U.K. forecasters, out of pool of 35 economists, throughout 2018 and 2019. His in-depth knowledge of market-moving data and his forensic forecasting approach explain why he consistently beats the consensus. Samuel's work on Brexit goes beyond simply reporting developments and is always analytical and unbiased, enabling investors to see through the noise of the daily headlines. While his analysis points to a particular path that politicians will take, he acknowledges the inherent uncertainty and draws out the economic and financial market implications of all plausible Brexit scenarios. Samuel holds an MSc in Economics from Birkbeck College, University of London and an undergraduate degree in History and Economics from the University of Oxford. Prior to joining Pantheon in 2015, he was Senior U.K. Economist at Capital Economics. In 2011, Samuel won the Society of Business Economists' prestigious Rybczynski Prize for an article on quantitative easing in the UK. He is based in London but frequently visits our other offices. Recent key calls include: 2018 - Correctly forecast that GDP growth would slow and inflation would undershoot the MPC's initial forecast, prompting the Committee to shock investors and almost other economists by waiting until August to raise Bank Rate, rather than pressing ahead in May. 2017 - Argued that the MPC was wrong to expect CPI inflation to stay below 3% following sterling's depreciation. He also highlighted that economic indicators pointed to the Conservatives losing their outright majority in the snap general election.

UK Datanote MPC Decision, Minutes & Inflation Report, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still committed to rate hikes, but not willing to pull the trigger just yet.

9 Nov. 2015 Investors Should Brace for a Poor German Q3 GDP Report (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production data capped another dreadful week for German manufacturing. Output fell 1.1% month-to-month in September, pushing the year-over-year rate lower to 0.2%, from a revised 2.9% in August. The 0.6% upward revision of the previous month's data makes the data slightly less awful than the headline, but the details showed weakness across all core sectors. The underlying trend in production is stable at about 1.2% year-over-year, but downbeat new orders suggest it will weaken in the fourth quarter.

8 Apr. 2016 Net Exports Likely Weighed on French GDP Growth Again in Q1 (Publication Centre)

External demand in France probably weakened in the first quarter. The trade deficit widened sharply to €5.2B in February, from a revised €3.9B in January, pushing the current account deficit to an 18-month high. It is tempting to blame the stronger euro, but that wasn't the whole story.

9 January 2018 Now is Not the Time to Turn Upbeat on Productivity Growth (Publication Centre)

Last week's news that output per hour jumped by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q3--the biggest rise since Q2 2011--has fanned hopes that the underlying trend finally is improving.

9 May 2019 March GDP Likely to Continue the Run of Above-Consensus Prints (Publication Centre)

We're among a small minority of economists forecasting that GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in March.

28 March 2019 Super Low Gilt Yields Aren't Warranted by the Economic Outlook (Publication Centre)

Gilt yields have tumbled, with the 10-year sliding to just 1.0%, from 1.2% a week ago.

7 December 2017 Tory Eurosceptics Are Not an Invincible Barrier to a Soft Brexit (Publication Centre)

Brexit talks have hit an impasse over the Irish border. The Republic of Ireland will veto any deal that creates a hard border with Northern Ireland. This means that Northern Ireland must remain in the EU's customs union.

21 September 2016 A Reverse Twist by the BOJ would move EZ bond markets (Publication Centre)

Financial markets in the Eurozone will be pushed around by global events today. The Bank of Japan kicks off the party in the early hours CET, and the spectrum of investors' expectations is wide.

22 August 2017 Don't Hold Your Breath for Euro-Sterling Parity (Publication Centre)

Sterling's renewed depreciation to just €1.10--just below last year's nadir--has fuelled speculation that it could reach parity against the euro within the next year.

22 August 2017 Tourism is Key to Financial Stability in the Spanish Economy (Publication Centre)

Last week's attacks in Barcelona--one of Spain's most popular tourist spots--struck at the heart of one of the economy's main growth engines.

21 November. 2016 Is Germany Exploiting the Rest of the EZ? (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that the EZ current account surplus fell to €25.3B in September, from a revised €29.2B in August. The trade and services surpluses were unchanged, but the income balance slipped after rising in the previous months.

21 May 2019 The MPC Will Shun its Strategy of Waiting for Brexit Uncertainty to Fade (Publication Centre)

The chances of the first phase of the Brexit saga concluding soon declined sharply last week.

26 Nov. 2015 The Chancellor Leaves the Fiscal Shackles Firmly in Place (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor used the Autumn Statement to shift the composition of the fiscal consolidation slightly away from spending cuts and towards tax hikes. But in overall macroeconomic terms, he changed little. The fiscal stance is still set to be extremely tight in 2016 and 2017, ensuring that the economic recovery will lose more momentum.

20 June. 2016 Will EZ Equity Inflows Rebound Again in this Business Cycle? (Publication Centre)

A year can make a big difference for the equity market. At this point last year, holders of the MSCI EU ex-UK were looking at a meaty gain of 21% year-to-date. The corresponding number this year is a sobering -12%. This is a remarkable shift, given stable GDP growth, close to cyclical highs, and additional easing by the ECB.

21 June. 2016 All Aboard for a Recovery in German Inflation Pressures (Publication Centre)

Producer prices in Germany rose 0.4% month-to-month in May, stronger than the consensus expectation of a 0.3% gain, and we think further upside surprises are likely in coming months. The headline was boosted by a 0.7% jump in energy prices, but food and manufacturing goods prices also rose.

22 Feb. 2016 Can Extremely Low Gilt Yields Be Sustained? (Publication Centre)

Gilt yields slid to record lows at many maturities in mid-February, and while equity prices have since rebounded, gilt yields have remained anchored at rock-bottom levels. But with political risks rising and deficit reduction still very slow, gilt yields look primed to spring back soon.

21 February 2017 Fiscal Policy Won't Be Eased, Even If January's Surplus is Huge (Publication Centre)

January's public finance data, released today, take on particular importance because they are the last to be published before the Chancellor delivers his first Budget on March 8. The public finances nearly always swing into surplus in January, primarily because the deadline for individuals to submit self-assessment--SA--tax returns for the previous fiscal year is at the end of the month. Firms also pay their third of four payments of corporation tax for their profits in the current fiscal year.

25 Apr. Preliminary GDP Data to Confirm Q1 Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of first quarter GDP likely will confirm that the economic recovery lost considerable pace in early 2016. Bedlam in financial markets in January and business fears over the E.U. referendum are partly responsible for the slowdown. The deceleration, however, also reflects tighter fiscal policy, uncompetitive exports, and the economy running into supply-side constraints.

25 August. 2016 Weak Mortgage Approvals Point to Falling House Prices Ahead (Publication Centre)

July's mortgage approvals data from the BBA brought clear evidence that households have held off making major financial commitments as a result of the Brexit vote. Following a 5% month-to-month fall in June, approvals fell a further 5.3% in July, leaving them at their lowest level since January 2015 and down 19% year-over-year.

26 August. 2016 EZ Economic Bulls Checked by IFO and INSEE Business Surveys (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey in Germany was a nasty downside surprise for markets. The business climate index slipped to 106.2 in August, from 108.3 in July, well below the consensus forecast for a modest rise. In addition, the expectations index slid ominously to 100.1, from a revised 102.1 in July.

24 November. 2016 The Fiscal Fetters Remain in Place, Despite the Looming Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor's Autumn Statement dashed hopes that the fiscal consolidation will be paused while the economy struggles to adjust to the implications of Brexit. Admittedly, Mr. Hammond has another opportunity in the Spring Budget to reduce next year's fiscal tightening.

25 Apr. 2016 Growth Will Rebound in Q2, But Brexit Fears Will Constrain the Fed (Publication Centre)

We are revising our forecast for Fed action this year, taking out two of the four hikes we had previously expected. We now look for the Fed to hike by 25bp in September and December, so the funds rate ends the year at 0.875%. The Fed's current forecast is also 0.875%, but the fed funds future shows 0.6%.

22 July. 2016 The ECB Tells Investors to go on Holiday and Come Back in Q3 (Publication Centre)

As widely expected, the ECB held fire yesterday. The central bank left its main refi rate unchanged at zero, and also kept the pace of QE unchanged at €80B a month. The deposit and marginal lending facility rates were also left unchanged at -0.4% and 0.25% respectively. The formal end-date of QE is still Q1 2017, but the press release repeated the message that QE can continue "beyond [Q1 2017], if necessary, and in any case until it sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim."

24 Mar. February Retail Sales to Highlight Weakening Trend in Spending (Publication Centre)

The economic recovery would have lost more momentum last year had consumers not delved so deeply into their pockets. Real household spending increased by 0.7% and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and Q4 respectively, in contrast to investment and exports, which fell in both quarters.

23 Feb. 2016 Would the MPC Just Let Sterling Drop Like a Stone? (Publication Centre)

Sterling will be under the spotlight again today when four members of the Monetary Policy Committee, including Governor Mark Carney, answer questions from the Treasury Select Committee about the recent Inflation Report.

24 August. 2015 U.S and U.K. Demand, Not China, Drives the Eurozone Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

The sell-off in risky assets intensified while we were away, driven by China's decision to loosen its grip on the currency, and looming rate hikes in the U.S. The Chinese move partly shows, we think, the PBoC is uncomfortable pegging to a strengthening dollar amid the unwinding investment boom and weakness in manufacturing.

*Nov. 2015 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Recovery shifting to a lower gear...but price pressures will force rate hikes next year

24 September 2018 Battle Lines are Drawn Between the EU and U.K. over Brexit (Publication Centre)

EU negotiations tend to go down to the wire; and last week's summit in Salzburg, and Theresa May's statement on Friday, suggest that the Brexit negotiations will do just that.

23 August 2018 Why Have U.K. Equities not Kept up with the Record-Breaking U.S. Rally? (Publication Centre)

The S&P 500 index chalked up a new record on Wednesday by going 3,453 days without a 20% drawdown, making it the longest equity bull-run in U.S. history.

10 Feb. 2015 German exports are strong, but too dependent on the U.S. and the U.K. (Publication Centre)

External demand for the Eurozone's largest economy is going from strength to strength. Seasonally adjusted German exports rose 3.4% month-to-month in December, equivalent to a solid 7.5% increase year-over-year.The revised indices show that the annualised surplus rose to an all-time high of €218B, or 7% of GDP, last year, indicating that the level of external savings remains a solid support for the economy.

12 June 2017 Germany's Trade Surplus is Vulnerable to U.K. Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

Germany continues to draw fire for its ballooning trade surplus, but momentum in net exports is easing. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus dipped marginally to a three-month low of €19.7B in April, from €19.8B in March, as stronger imports offset a modest rise in exports. The German trade surplus averaged €19.9B in the first four months of 2017, about 10% lower than the cyclical peak, in the middle of 2016.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with the economy retaining momentum ahead of the Brexit deadline.

U.K. Webinar - H2, 2018 (Publication Centre)

The MPC won't be passive next year...Brexit permitting

19 Feb. 2016 Even Spendthrift U.K. Consumers Will Have to Slow Down in 2016 (Publication Centre)

January's retail sales figures, released today, look set to indicate that consumers are keeping the recovery going, amid deteriorating business sentiment and faltering external trade.

U.K. Webinar - Q1, 2019 (Publication Centre)

Will Brexit Puncture the MPC's Tightening Cycle?

9 Sept 2020 The EU and the U.K. are Steering Straight for a No-Deal Brexit (Publication Centre)

Before we cover yesterday's economic news, we regret to inform our readers that the Brexit negotiations remain bizarre as ever.

9 Jan 2020 Higher Investment Alone won't Solve the U.K.'s Productivity Problem (Publication Centre)

Productivity statistics released yesterday continued to paint a bleak picture. Output per worker rose by a mere 0.1% year-over-year in Q3, despite jumping by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter.

13 March 2017 A Slowdown in the U.K. Will Dent the German Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Germany's external surplus remained resilient at the start of the year. Data on Friday showed that the seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose marginally to €18.5B in January, from a revised €18.3B in December.

9 May 2018 Is Down Now the Only Way for U.K. House Prices? (Publication Centre)

Britain's housing market appears to be going from bad to worse.

17 January 2017 Will Brexit and Mr. Trump Dent EZ Exports to the U.S. and the U.K? (Publication Centre)

Net exports in the euro area likely rebounded in Q4. The headline EZ trade surplus rose to €22.7B in November from €19.7B in October. Exports jumped 3.3% month-to-month, primarily as a result of strong data in Germany and France, offsetting a 1.8% rise in imports. Over Q4 as a whole, we are confident that net exports gave a slight boost to eurozone GDP growth, adding 0.1 percentage points to quarter-on-quarter growth.

11 June 2018 Production and Labour Market Data will Hit Rate Hike Odds (Publication Centre)

The resolution of tensions in Italy and aboveconsensus U.K. PMIs for May last week persuaded investors that the MPC likely will press on and raise interest rates soon.

11 December 2019 Global Monitor Misleadingly secure for the Tories? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - November payrolls were wild, are they real? • EUROZONE - The EZ consumer stood tall in Q3, and should remain strong in Q4 • U.K. - The Tories are not home and dry yet, despite a solid poll lead • ASIA - New fiscal stimulus in Japan is not Abenomics 2.0 • LATAM - The Brazilian economy is recovering, but external risks are still a threat

12 December 2018 Is Britain now at the Steep Part of the Phillips Curve? (Publication Centre)

The sudden jump in the headline, three-month average, growth rate of average weekly wages to a 10-year high of 3.3% in October, from just 2.4% four months earlier, might indicate that the U.K. has reached the sharply upward-sloping part of the Phillips Curve.

11 Apr. Slowly but Surely, Inflation is Creeping Back Towards its Target (Publication Centre)

Consumer price figures for March, released on Tuesday, likely will show that CPI inflation has taken another step up, probably to 0.4% from 0.3% in February. This should jettison lingering fears that the U.K. is mired in deflation and bolster the Monetary Policy Committee's conviction that inflation will hit the 2% target within the next two years.

12 April 2019 The Brexit Extension isn't the Death Knell for a 2019 Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

The E.U.'s decision to grant the U.K. a Brexit extension until October 31 does not extinguish the possibility that the MPC will raise Bank Rate before the end of the year.

11 Mar 2020 Global Monitor Is this the beginning of a trend? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The slump in oil prices will be a net drag on the economy in the near term • EUROZONE - We try to make sense of a wild week in EZ and global markets • U.K. - The BOE will respond more timidly than its peers to Covid-19 • ASIA - The Fed has given Asian central banks room to cut, but they won't go overboard • LATAM - The collapse in oil prices increases the pressure on LatAm

1 July 2020 Global Monitor The virus is back in Germany (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Downside risks loom for growth in Q3 • EUROZONE - Solid M1 data points to a strengthening EZ recovery • U.K. - No major breakout in sight for Cable • ASIA - India is reopening, but risks remain high • LATAM - Mexico's economy is on the ropes; further rate cuts are coming

1 June. How to Read the Tea Leaves Before and On Referendum Night (Publication Centre)

Sterling's fall yesterday to $1.45 from $1.46 after the release of online and phone opinion polls from ICM both showing a three percentage point lead for "Leave" over "Remain" underlines that it not a formality that the U.K. will be a full member of the E.U. this time next month.

1 March 2018 Eurozone inflation has bottomed for the year (Publication Centre)

House purchase mortgage approvals by the main street banks jumped to 40.1K in January, from 36.1K in December, fully reversing the 4K fall of the previous two months, according to trade body U.K. Finance.

1 Apr 2020 Global Monitor Covid-19 has arrived in LatAm (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Job losses set to breach 10M in just a few weeks. • EUROZONE - Who will pay for the Covid-19 stimulus in the EZ? • U.K. - The private sector's balance sheet is in good shape to take on the lockdown • ASIA - Covid-19 is worse for China than the financial crisis • LATAM - The data supported rate cuts in LatAm even before coronavirus

08 Mar. 2016 Is the Economy Better Placed to Withstand the Fiscal Squeeze? (Publication Centre)

The consensus view that the recovery won't lose more momentum this year seems to assume that the U.K. economy is better placed to deal with the intensification of the fiscal squeeze than earlier this decade. We do not share this optimism.

BBC - Retail sales in first annual fall since 2013 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales

08 Jan. 2016 Sterling, Not EM Weakness, Will Hold Exports Back (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor argued in a speech on Thursday that the U.K.'s economic recovery is threatened by a "dangerous cocktail" of overseas risks, including slowing growth in the BRICs--Brazil, Russia, India, and China--and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Exports are set to struggle this year, but the strong pound, not weakness in emerging markets, will be the main drag.

1 March 2018 The PM's Inevitable Capitulation is Still a Way Off ,Clouding Sterling's Outlook (Publication Centre)

Sterling fell to $1.38, from $1.39, in the hour following the EU's publication of a draft Article 50 withdrawal treaty, which set out the practical consequences of the principles the U.K. agreed to in December.

1 March 2019 The Brexit Drag on Net Migration Should Fade This Year (Publication Centre)

The latest official data show that net migration to the U.K. hasn't fallen much, despite all the uncertainty created by the Brexit vote.

10 November. 2016 Market Reaction to Trump Shows Britain is No Longer a Safe-haven (Publication Centre)

Donald Trump's victory casts a shadow of political uncertainty over what had appeared to be a decent outlook for the U.S economy. The U.K.'s trade and financial ties with the U.S., however, are small enough to mean that any downturn on the other side of the Atlantic will have little impact on Britain.

10 Oct 2019 Lower Tariffs won't Stop CPI Inflation Surging in the Event of No-deal (Publication Centre)

We remain confident in the success of legislation designed to compel the PM to request a further extension of the U.K.'s E.U. membership on October 19, in the overwhelmingly likely scenario that an exit deal is not agreed at next week's E.U. Council meeting.

10 November. 2016 A Trump Victory Means Revisions to EU Leaders' Playbooks (Publication Centre)

EZ equity futures predictably fell out of bed as the news of the Trump victory gradually became clear overnight yesterday. The reaction was less violent than after the U.K. Brexit referendum, though, and Mr. Trump's balanced victory speech appears to have calmed nerves for now.

10 June 2020 Global Monitor An unprecedented slump requires an unprecedented reply (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The U.S. stock market is following the money • EUROZONE - The ECB gets ahead of the curve with PEPP boost • U.K. - The BOE to remain more timid on QE than its peers? • ASIA - Don't cheer the consensus beating Q1 GDP print in India • LATAM - More pain in Brazilian manufacturing, but the worst is over

1 October 2018 The Current Account Deficit Remains Sterling's Achilles' Heel (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s still-large current account deficit makes us nervous that sterling will need to depreciate further over the medium-term and would collapse if Brexit talks fail, causing international investors to take flight.

10 July 2019 Global Monitor The German economy stalled in Q2 (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Strong economic data could still kill a July Fed rate cut • EUROZONE - The German economy hit a brick wall in Q2 • U.K. - Markets are overestimating the probability of a BOE rate cut • ASIA - The Tankan underscores Japan's fragile economy • LATAM - Manufacturing in Brazil is showing tentative signs of stabilisation

10 October. 2016 The Sterling Crisis has Tied Policymakers' Hands (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s dependence on large inflows of external finance was laid alarmingly b are last week, when "hard" Brexit talk by politicians caused overseas investors to give sterling assets a wide berth. Investors now are demanding extra compensation for holding U.K. assets, because the medium-term outlook is so uncertain.

12 Feb 2020 Global Monitor Is the ECB March meeting live? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - January's payrolls overstate the trend in employment growth • EUROZONE - Is the ECB meeting now live? • U.K. - The link between prices and wages has been cut • ASIA - The coronavirus could deliver a $100B hit to China's economy in Q1 • LATAM - Is the COPOM's easing cycle really over?

2nd September 2020 Global Monitor All set for further ECB stimulus? (Publication Centre)

U.S. -The Fed will let the economy runs hot, if it has to Eurozone - Soft August CPI data sets up further ECB easing in September U.K. - The U.K. economics team is on vacation Asia - Manufacturing in China is peaking, services are catching up LatAm - A full recovery in LatAm is not in the cards this year

3 August 2018 Does the BoJ Believe in Targeting 2% Inflation Anymore? (Publication Centre)

Why should Japan, the U.S., the Euro Area, the U.K. and Japan all have the same inflation target?

3 January 2019 Huge External Deficit Points to Big No-Deal Downside for Sterling (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s balance of payments leaves little room for doubt that sterling would sink like a stone in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

29 May 2020 The Government will Blink on Brexit, Though Not Until the Last Minute (Publication Centre)

For now, the U.K. government still insists that the Brexit transition period will end in December, regardless of whether a new trade deal has been negotiated with the E.U. or not.

29 March 2017 Triggering Article 50 Won't End the "Phoney War" Immediately (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister will invoke Article 50 today, marking the end of the beginning of the U.K.'s departure from the EU. The move likely will not move markets, as it has been all but certain since MPs backed the Government's European Union Bill on February 1.

29 Apr 2020 Global Monitor Covid-19 arrives in the EZ hard data (Publication Centre)

• EUROZONE - Covid-19 is about to wash over the EZ hard data • U.K. - Low-income households are poorly prepared for a recession • ASIA - China's grim profit data point to further policy easing • LATAM - Brazil and Mexico are still behind the Covid-19 curve

29 Jan 2020 Global Monitor Will Chinese GDP fall in Q1? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The Fed is on hold awaiting further developments • EUROZONE - The ECB treads water as it readies its policy review • U.K. - The post-election economic bounce will keep the MPC on hold • ASIA - The coronavirus could prompt a Q1 fall in Chinese GDP • LATAM - The CPI data in Brazil provides further support for a dovish COPOM

29 July 2020 Global Monitor The Second U.S. Covid Wave has Crested (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Congressional face-off could delay the next relief bill until September • EUROZONE - The Eurozone economics team is on vacation • U.K. - Surging retail sales are a poor guide to overall consumption • ASIA - Korea's grim Q2 likely was the low, but the recovery is fragile • LATAM - The deep recession will suppress inflation in Mexico

12 June 2017 The Hung Parliament has Hidden Positives for the Economy (Publication Centre)

Britain's general election has led to another major step-up in political uncertainty, which conventional wisdom assumes will harm the economy. Perhaps surprisingly, however, the government's enfeebled state brings with it some major positives for the U.K.'s economic outlook.

3 July 2018 It's Too Soon to Relax About the Current Account Deficit (Publication Centre)

Last week's balance of payments showed that the U.K. has made significant progress in reducing its reliance on overseas finance.

30 August. 2016 Reports of the Economy's Resilience are Greatly Exaggerated (Publication Centre)

Over the sleepy August holidays, a view has gained traction in the media that the U.K. economy is showing little damage from the Brexit vote. Optimists argue that the size and composition of the 0.6% quarter-on-quarter rise in Q2 GDP, the 1.4% month-to-month jump in retail sales volumes in July, and the slight dip in the unemployment claimant count demonstrate that the recovery is in good shape.

30 January 2019 Extremely Downbeat Leading Indicators Should not be Trusted (Publication Centre)

Some closely-watched composite leading indicators for the U.K. economy, and for many others, are flashing red.

30 October 2019 Global Monitor China's economy hit the rafters in Q3 (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Is capex falling as hard as the surveys are implying? • EUROZONE - The end of an era at the ECB; now attention turns to Ms. Lagarde • U.K. - An absolute majority for the Conservatives is not certain • ASIA - Chinese Q3 GDP data were worse than implied by the headlines • LATAM - Mexico hit a brick wall in Q3, but Q4 should be a bit better

30 August 2017 The Eurozone's Cyclical Recovery is Stable, Not Accelerating (Publication Centre)

While we were enjoying a rare sunny bank holiday in the U.K., data showed that Eurozone money supply growth slowed at the start of Q3. Broad money growth--M3--fell to a 10-month low of 4.5% year-over- year in July, from 5.0% in August.

30 April 2019 No Boost to Business Confidence from the Brexit Delay (Publication Centre)

News that the U.K.'s departure from the E.U. has been delayed by six months, unless MPs ratify the existing deal sooner, appears to have done little to revive confidence among businesses.

3 June 2020 Global Monitor Are negative rates coming to the UK? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - A squeeze on wages will keep a lid on inflation • EUROZONE - EZ consumption is collapsing, but M1 is soaring • U.K. - No negative rates in the U.K., but we expect a boost to the TFSME • ASIA - China's industrial sector is still wobbling • LATAM - The Brazilian economy is in a world of pain

3 May 2017 April's Higher Manufacturing PMI Won't Be Sustained (Publication Centre)

The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI shot up to a three-year high of 57.3 in April, from 54.2 in March, bringing an end to the run of downbeat news on the economy. The performance of the U.K. manufacturing sector, however, remains underwhelming, given the magnitude of sterling's depreciation.

3 October 2017 Robust Overseas Demand Isn't Persuading Manufacturers to Invest (Publication Centre)

U.K. manufacturers are benefiting from rapid growth in the Eurozone, but increasingly they are being held back by weak domestic demand.

28 July 2017 The Downturn in Housing Market Activity has Further to Run (Publication Centre)

Equity prices for companies dependent on the U.K.'s residential property market tumbled yesterday as several companies reported poor results for the first half of 2017. Most companies blamed a decline in housing transactions for falling profits.

28 January 2019 Has the Link Between Labour Costs and Inflation Broken? (Publication Centre)

At first glance, the U.K. consumer price data show a perplexing absence of domestically generated inflation.

27 February 2018 The Trend in Mortgage Lending is Downward, Despite January's Jump (Publication Centre)

House purchase mortgage approvals by the main street banks jumped to 40.1K in January, from 36.1K in December, fully reversing the 4K fall of the previous two months, according to trade body U.K. Finance.

27 January 2017 GDP Growth Will Slow This Year as Consumers Retrench (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of GDP showed that the economy finished 2016 on a strong note. Output increased by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, the same rate as in the previous two quarters. The year-over-year growth rate of GDP in 2016 as a whole--2.0%--was low by pre-crisis standards, but it likely puts the U.K. at the top of the G7 growth leaderboard. We cannot tell how well the economy would have performed had the U.K. not voted to leave the EU in June, but clearly the threat of Brexit has not loomed large over the economy.

27 June 2019 Mortgage Lending Likely to Remain Impervious to Brexit Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

Data from trade body U.K. Finance show that mortgage lending has remained unyielding in the face of heightened economic and political uncertainty.

26 September 2017 Is the Most Important Data--Wage Growth--Forecastable? (Publication Centre)

Markets will be hyper-sensitive to U.K. data releases following the MPC's warning that it is on the verge of raising interest rates.

26 Oct. 2015 MPC Can't Wait too Long After the U.S. Fed Raises Rates (Publication Centre)

Markets currently judge that U.K. interest rates will rise about six months after the first Fed hike. But the Bank of England seldom lagged this far behind in the past. Admittedly, the slowdown in the domestic economy that we expect will require the Monetary Policy Committee to be cautious. But wage and exchange rate pressures are likely to mean six months is the maximum period the MPC can wait before following the Fed's lead.

26 Feb 2020 Global Monitor Markets eye Covid-19 spreading beyond China (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The Fed will blink if markets have more weeks like this • EUROZONE - All we know about Q1 is that the outlook is uncertain • U.K. - Markets are underestimating risk of no deal between the EU and the U.K. • ASIA - Pre Covid-19 credit numbers in China are holding up • LATAM - LatAm is vulnerable to Covid-19, but its economies won't collapse

26 Jan. 2016 The Collapse in Oil Prices Won't Reinvigorate the Economy in 2016 (Publication Centre)

The response of U.K. producers and consumers to lower oil prices could not have been more different to those on the other side of the Atlantic. Counter-intuitively, U.K. oil production has grown strongly over the last year, while investment hasn't collapsed to the same extent as in the U.S., yet. Meanwhile, U.K. households have thrown caution to the wind and already have spent the windfall from the previous drop in oil prices, unlike their more prudent--so far--U.S. counterparts. With the costs still to come but most of the benefits already enjoyed, lower oil prices will be neutral for 2016 U.K. GDP growth, at best.

26 January 2018 The Slump in Mortgage Lending has Further to Run (Publication Centre)

Mortgage approvals by the main high street banks collapsed to 36.1K in December--the lowest level since April 2013--from 39.0K in November, according to trade body U.K. Finance.

27 March 2018 The Housing Market Remains Fragile, Limiting the MPC's Options (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's figures from trade body U.K. Finance showed that January's pick-up in mortgage approvals was just a blip.

27 March 2019 Mortgage Lending Still is Heading for a Roller Coaster Year (Publication Centre)

The mortgage market still is defying gravity. U.K. Finance initially reported yesterday that house purchase mortgage approvals by the main high street banks collapsed to 35.3K in February, from 39.6K in January.

28 August 2019 Global Monitor Rate cuts on the way in Mexico and Brazil? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Trump is making it impossible for China to negotiate a trade deal • EUROZONE - EZ PMIs are stabilising, will the economy follow? • U.K. - Our U.K. service is on holiday, publication will resume on September 4 • ASIA - Chinese authorities will ease further, but they have limited space • LATAM - Downside inflation surprises point to rate cuts in Brazil and Mexico

28 February 2017 Should the ESI's Upbeat Growth Signal be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

The E.C.'s Economic Sentiment Indicator for the U.K., released yesterday, painted an upbeat picture of the economy's recent performance. The ESI picked up to 109.4 in February from 107.1 in January; its average level since 1990 is 100. February's reading was the highest since December 2015, and it slightly exceeded the E.U.'s average of 108.9.

28 Jan 2020 A Real Housing Market Recovery is Finally Taking Root (Publication Centre)

Housebuilders were one of the biggest winners from the post-election relief rally in U.K. equity prices.

28 Apr. Don't Pin Your Hopes on a Post-Referendum Rebound (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 reflects more than just Brexit risk. The intensifying fiscal squeeze, the uncompetitiveness of U.K. exports, and the lack of spare labour suggest that the U.K.'s recovery now is stuck in a lower gear.

27 September 2018 Mortgage Lending will Keep Trending Down as Brexit Nears (Publication Centre)

August's mortgage lending data from the trade body U.K. Finance provided more evidence that the pick-up in housing market activity in Q2 simply reflected a shift from Q1 due to the disruptive weather, rather than the emergence of a sustainable upward trend.

27 May 2020 Global Monitor China ditches in GDP target, now what? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - An increase in testing overstates reopening risks • EUROZONE - Where is the EZ economy right now? • U.K. - GDP is recovering, the poor May surveys notwithstanding • ASIA - China scraps its GDP target, finally • LATAM - The misery continues in Mexico's economy

27 November 2018 The Trend in Mortgage Lending Still is Downward, Despite October's Rise (Publication Centre)

Mortgage approvals by the main high street banks rose to a four-month high of 39.7K in October, from 38.7K in September, according to trade body U.K. Finance.

27 September 2017 Winter is Coming for the Mortgage Market (Publication Centre)

Figures yesterday from U.K. Finance--the new trade body that has subsumed the British Bankers' Association--showed that the mortgage market recovered over the summer.

31 August. 2016 Cheaper Borrowing Costs Won't Reignite Firms' Investment Appetite (Publication Centre)

July's money and credit figures provided more evidence that firms have become reluctant to invest following the Brexit vote. Lending by U.K. banks to private non-financial companies--PNFCs--rose by just 0.2% month-to-month in July, below the average 0.5% increase of the previous six months.

31 January 2017 Will the MPC Need to Raise Rates to Cool Consumer Credit Growth? (Publication Centre)

December's money data likely will bring further signs that the U.K. economy's growth spurt late last year was paid for with unsecured borrowing. Retail sales fell by 1.9% month-to-month in December, so we doubt that unsecured borrowing will match November's £1.7B increase, which was the biggest since March 2005.

7 February 2019 Industrial and Retail Sectors to Drive December GDP Dip (Publication Centre)

December's GDP report, released next Monday, likely will maintain the flow of negative news on the U.K. economy.

7 June. 2016 Are Eurozone Equity Markets Complacent About Brexit? (Publication Centre)

Recent polls in the U.K. have reminded markets that the vote is too close to call at this point, but investors in the Eurozone appear unfazed, so far. The headline Sentix index rose to 9.9 in June, from 6.2 in May, lifted by the expectations index, which increased to a six-month high of 10.0 from 5.5 in May.

7 May 2019 EZ Equities are Vulnerable to a Snag in U.S-Chinese Trade Talks (Publication Centre)

EZ investors hoping for a quiet session yesterday due to the U.K. bank holiday were left disappointed.

7 February 2018 The Economic Fallout from the Plunge in Equities will be Modest (Publication Centre)

As things stand, we see little reason to revise down our forecasts for the U.K. economy in response to the tailspin in equity markets

6 November 2019 Global Monitor Will protests scupper Chile's economic recovery (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The outlook for the job market is deteriorating • EUROZONE - Markets are eyeing a bottom in EZ GDP growth • U.K. - The MPC is in wait-and-see mode until after the elections • ASIA - A spike in CPI inflation, but a still-falling PPI, in China • LATAM - Brazil's COPOM is nearly done easing

6 March 2017 Can Gilt Yields Remain Low While the World Reflates? (Publication Centre)

If 2017 really is the year of "reflation", somebody forgot to tell the gilt market. Among the G7 group, 10-year yields have fallen only in the U.K. during the last three months, as our first chart shows.

6 May 2020 Global Monitor Little hope for a change in this trend anytime soon (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Can Powell push Congress to act again? • EUROZONE - Has the ECB revived the carry trade in EZ government bonds? • U.K. - What are the options for the MPC this week? • ASIA - Don't be fooled by the relatively solid Chinese manufacturing PMI • LATAM - The LatAm economies are feeling the pain of Covid-19

6 May. The MPC Won't Step in to Revive the Economy this Time (Publication Centre)

The latest U.K. PMIs were unambiguously dreadful. The manufacturing, construction and services PMIs all fell in April, and their weighted average points to quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP slowing to zero in Q2, from 0.4% in Q1. The U .K.'s composite PMI also undershot the Eurozone's for the second month this year.

7th October 2020 Mexico's economy is still on the ropes (Publication Centre)

• U.S.- Trump's diagnosis doesn't alter his chances; he is still set to lose • EUROZONE - Core inflation is now uncomfortably low for the ECB • U.K.- Households won't spend their accumulated savings anytime soon • ASIA - China's manufacturing PMI was solid through Q3, will it continue in Q4? • LATAM - Mexico's economy is still on the ropes; more rate cuts on the way

8 Apr 2020 Global Monitor U.S. labour market data are off the charts (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - March payrolls were poor, they'll be terrifying in April • EUROZONE - Grim EZ PMI data in March • U.K. - The U.K. won't do better than the rest of Europe in Q2 • ASIA - A v-shaped recovery in China is not certain • LATAM - The incoming data will soon confirm a deep recession in the region

9 Sept 2020 A 2% Uplift to the CPI Looms, Without an E.U. Trade Deal (Publication Centre)

After three years, we think the level of the CPI would be about 2% higher if the U.K. falls back on WTO terms for trade with the E .U. than if a deep Free Trade Agreement is signed.

9th September 2020 Global Monitor The recovery in the U.S. labour market is losing steam (Publication Centre)

• U.S.- The recovery in payrolls is petering out • EUROZONE - Soft August PMIs put the EZ recovery on notice • U.K.- GDP growth is set to slow sharply as support measures are pulled • ASIA - Reopening in India won't save the economy in the near term • LATAM -Ignore depressed Q2 GDP data in Brazil, Q3 will look better

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soaring; probably lifted by pre-Brexit stock building in the U.K.

9 March 2017 The Chancellor Sticks to Plans for an Intense Fiscal Tightening (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor lived up to his reputation for fiscal conservatism yesterday and is pressing ahead with a tough fiscal tightening. He hopes that this will create scope to loosen policy if the economy struggles after the U.K. leaves the EU in 2019, but we remain concerned his "fiscal headroom" will be much smaller than he currently anticipates.

8 June 2020 Will the MPC Swap Its QE Machine Gun for a Bazooka? (Publication Centre)

So far, the MPC has been more timid with unconventional stimulus than other central banks. At the end of May, central bank reserves equalled 29.7% of four-quarter rolling GDP in the U.K., compared to 32.7% in the U.S. and 46.7% in the Eurozone.

8 Jan 2020 Global Monitor A more positive start to the year in LatAm? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Markets now await Iran's inevitable response • EUROZONE - Still soft, but also stabilising, EZ PMIs • U.K. - Strong balance sheets means that recessions risks are remote • ASIA - Useful Chinese Hukou reforms, but looser financial conditions are still needed • LATAM - The outlook is improving in LatAm as trade tensions ease

8 Jan 2020 Higher Oil Prices won't Stop the Economy Recovering this Year (Publication Centre)

The $10 increase in the price of Brent crude oil over the last three months to $68 is an unhelpful, but manageable, drag on the U.K. economy's growth prospects this year.

8 July 2020 Global Monitor A double-dip recession in the U.S.? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The Q3 GDP data are under threat • EUROZONE - What does rising PMIs in the EZ mean? • U.K. - The BOE won't shrink its balance sheet anytime soon • ASIA - The Q2 GDP headline in Japan will be nasty • LATAM - A tepid rebound is now underway in Brazilian manufacturing

6 June. Political Instability to Loom Large, if Referendum is Close Either Way (Publication Centre)

Would the U.K. inevitably leave the E.U. if a majority of the electorate voted for Brexit on June 23? Repeatedly, the Government has quelled speculation that it will call for a second referendum on an improved package of E.U. reforms after a Brexit vote on June 23. But unsuccessful referendums have been followed up with second plebiscites elsewhere in Europe.

6 July 2018 How will the E.U. Respond to the Prime Minister's Latest Brexit Plan? (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s dysfunctional cabinet will meet at the Prime Minister's country retreat today to agree--finally--on a set of proposals for how Britain will trade outside of the E .U.'s customs union and single market.

4 July. 2016 A Look into the Abyss - Will the EZ and the EU Disintegrate? (Publication Centre)

For some economists and political analysts the surprising result of the U.K.'s EU referendum symbolises one of the biggest threats to the structure of the post-war social-liberal market economy. To this school of thought, the vote proved that the discontent of a pressured and disenfranchised working/middle class is rising, threatening to topple economies and political institutions.

4 June 2018 The Economy Should be Less Lethargic in 2019 (Publication Centre)

We're relatively optimistic--yes, you read that correctly--on the outlook for the U.K. economy in 2019.

4 Mar 2020 Global Monitor Covid-19 is about the hit the economic data (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The Fed isn't done, but fiscal policy is needed to stop the rot • EUROZONE - Covid-19 is both a supply and demand shock; what will the ECB do? • U.K. - The MPC will respond more timidly to Covid-19 than other major central banks • ASIA - A further downward adjustment to our GDP forecast in China • LATAM - LatAm economies will catch the flu in Q1

4 December 2019 Global Monitor Chile's economy hit a brick wall at the start of Q4 (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Business sentiment has bottomed, the hard data haven't • EUROZONE - Trust M1 amid mixed messages from economic data in the EZ • U.K. - Labour is chipping away at the Tories' lead, but not fast enough • ASIA - We don't trust the upturn in China's Caixin manufacturing PMI • LATAM - Uncertainty falls over LatAm's major economies, again

4 December 2017 Britain Will be Forever Stuck in the Brexit Departure Lounge (Publication Centre)

Sterling strengthened last week to its highest tradeweighted level since mid-May, amid hopes that the U.K. government will concede more ground to ensure that the European Council deems, at its December 14 meeting, that "sufficient progress" has been made in Brexit talks for trade discussions to begin

31 May 2019 The Economy Won't Be Knocked Off Course by Rising Household Saving (Publication Centre)

Households' willingness to save a smaller fraction of their incomes goes a long way to explaining why the U.K. economy hasn't lost too much momentum since the Brexit vote.

4 Apr. Britain is Living Beyond its Means, Once Again (Publication Centre)

The clear message from the fourth quarter's national accounts, released last week, is that the economic recovery rests on unsustainable foundations. The U.K. has returned to bad habits and is financing expenditure today by borrowing. As this undermines future spending, it is only a matter of time before the U.K.'s recovery loses steam.

4 April 2017 Sterling's Depreciation is a Mixed Blessing for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

The latest Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey has dashed hopes that sterling's depreciation and the pickup in global trade will facilitate strong growth in U.K. production this year. The PMI dropped to 54.2 in March, from 54.6 in February.

4 October 2017 The Current Account Deficit Still Poses Downside Risks for Sterling (Publication Centre)

Sterling's depreciation has done little to remedy the U.K.'s dependence on external finance.

4 September 2019 Global Monitor The German labour market is in trouble, will Berlin act? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Mr. Trump will blink on tariffs, if China doesn't budge • EUROZONE - Real M1 is sending an upbeat signal for the EZ business cycle • U.K. - First a Brexit extension, then new elections • ASIA - Political and economic challenges make a for dangerous cocktail in Hong Kong • LATAM - Brazil avoids a recession, but the recovery is set to remain slow

5 May 2020 Money Data Highlight Bounce-back Potential Once the Virus Ends (Publication Centre)

The surge in the broad money supply in March, as the U.K.'s lockdown began, suggests that businesses are in relatively good shape to survive a multi-month period of greatly depressed demand.

6 Apr 2020 Britain Won't Fare Better than the Rest of Europe in Q2 (Publication Centre)

The U.K. services sector has vanished overnight, following the introduction of tough restrictions on everyday life to stem the spread of Covid-19.

6 February 2017 Growth Indicators Start to Turn Down as Price Pressures Escalate (Publication Centre)

The run of above-consensus news on the U.K. economy came to an abrupt end last week, as a series of survey indicators for January took a turn for the worse. After six months of breathing space, the economic consequences of the Brexit vote are increasingly being felt.

5 June 2018 A Customs Union U-turn is Coming, but not Until the Autumn (Publication Centre)

In theory, June should be a crunch month for Theresa May's Brexit plans. The Prime Minister will meet EU leaders on June 28 and hopes to have found a consensus in cabinet by then for how the U.K. will trade with the EU outside of the customs union.

5 Feb 2020 Global Monitor Mexico's economy is up against it: a rebound in 2020? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Hopeful signs in the coronavirus data • EUROZONE - The near-term outlook darkens, but the trend is on the mend • U.K. - Only a small rise in GDP growth is needed to keep the BOE on hold • ASIA - Will the coronavirus push Japan into a technical recession • LATAM - Services spared the blushes for the Mexican economy in Q4

5 April 2017 The Construction Sector Will Continue to Tread Water (Publication Centre)

Evidence that the U.K. economy has slowed significantly this year is starting to come in thick and fast. Following the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI on Monday --which signalled that growth in production declined in March to its lowest rate since July--the construction PMI dropped to 52.2 in March, from 52.5 in February.

5 August 2020 Global Monitor The rise in EURUSD makes sense, but easy does it (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Flat near-real time growth data don't mean zero Q3 GDP growth • EUROZONE - A revival of Covid-19 and a EURUSD rally; what gives? • U.K. - The MPC is on the fence regarding negative rates • ASIA - The Asian economics team is on vacation • LATAM - The virus has brought Mexico's economy to its knees

26 August 2020 Global Monitor The virus is loosening its grip in LatAm (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The second wave is easing, but it isn't over yet • EUROZONE - August EZ PMIs were poor, but not terrible • U.K. - Inflation will fall further, despite the jump in July • ASIA - A narrow recovery for China's economy in Q3 • LATAM - Weak growth and low inflation as far as the eye can in LatAm

3 December 2018 March 29 Is Not an Immovable Deadline for Brexit (Publication Centre)

Both the E.U. and the U.K. government have been keen to emphasise, since the Withdrawal Agreement was provisionally signed off, that March 29 is a hard deadline for Brexit.

18 Oct 2019 The New Brexit Deal is a Classic EU Fudge, Will it Sink or Swim (Publication Centre)

Our first impression of the proposed Brexit deal between the EU and the U.K. is that it is sufficiently opaque for both sides to claim that they have stuck to their guns, even if in reality, they have both made concessions.

18 September 2019 Global Monitor Don't use the textbooks to analyse EZ monetary policy (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The Fed will cut, but watch the new forecasts • EUROZONE - The ECB doubles down; buckle up! • U.K. - The MPC will not be swayed by easing bias elsewhere • ASIA - China's economy is still not responding to PBoC easing • LATAM - A solid start to Q3 for Brazilian retail sales

19 August 2020 Global Monitor What next in Japan's economy? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The U.S. economics team is on vacation • EUROZONE - Poor EZ macro-data, but that's absolutely fine for markets • U.K. - The initial rebound in GDP is set to slow sharply through Q3 • ASIA - Japan's Q3 recovery already looks disappointingly weak • LATAM - The Latam economics team is on vacation.

19 Feb 2020 Global Monitor Japan's economy hit a brick wall in Q4 (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The U.S. is on annual leave; publication resumes next week • EUROZONE - EZ 2020 growth forecasts are about to come down • U.K. - A new chancellor signals looser fiscal policy • ASIA - Japan's economy slumps in Q4; what next? • LATAM - The COPOM has closed the door on further easing; we're sceptical

18 Mar 2020 Global Monitor Is this the beginning of a trend? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Are stocks priced for a 10% slump in Q2 GDP? We don't think so • EUROZONE - Europe is going fiscal, but what does it mean in practice? • U.K. - Bolder action is needed to avoid a prolonged recession • ASIA - The Q1 GDP data in China will be unprecedentedly grim • LATAM - Copom is done easing, for now

18 January 2017 The Government's Brexit Bravado Won't Survive the Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister set out her blueprint for Brexit yesterday, asserting that the U.K. will leave the single market and potentially even the E.U.'s customs union in order to control immigration and regain lost sovereignty. She argued that "no deal is better than a bad deal", suggesting that the U.K. might even fall back on its membership of the World Trade Organisation as the basis for trading with the E.U., if her demands were not met.

17 May. Wage Growth to Continue to Rise, Despite Jobs Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The 21K rise in the headline, three-month average, unemployment rate between November and February confirmed last month that the U.K.'s period of fantastically strong growth in employment has ended. Timelier indicators, however, suggest unemployment is stabilising, not on the cusp of a major increase.

17 Nov. 2015 Does the Underperformance of the FTSE Portend a Weaker Economy? (Publication Centre)

The FTSE 100 has fallen by 4% over the last two weeks, exceeding the 1-to-3% declines in the main US, European and Japanese markets. The FTSE's latest drop builds on an underperformance which began in early 2014. The index has fallen by 10% since then--compared to rises of between 10% and 20% in the main overseas benchmarks--and has dropped by nearly 15% since its April 2015 peak. We doubt, however, that the collapse in U.K. equity prices signals impending economic misery. The economy is likely to struggle next year, but this will have little to do with the stock market's travails.

17th June 2020 Global Monitor Chinese money supply data are picking up (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The FOMC puts the Fed funds rate on ice • EUROZONE - What does the Fed's new rate policy mean for the ECB and EZ assets? • U.K. - More QE, but no negative rates, this week • ASIA - Solid Chinese M1 data suggest the PBoC will hold back on rate cuts • LATAM - Banxico to cut rates further, despite higher inflation

18 December 2019 Global Monitor The Fed is signalling inaction (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The trade deal will lift business confidence, but only modestly • EUROZONE - A soft Q4 for the PMIs, but we think the bottom is in • U.K. - GDP growth will recover in Q1, before Brexit risks return • ASIA - Now the hard part begins in the U.S.-China trade talks • LATAM - Will President Fernández Solve the Debt Crisis in Argentina?

19 Jan. 2016 RPI Inflation Will Strengthen More Rapidly Than Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

RPI inflation has declined in importance as a measure of U.K. inflation and was stripped of its status as a National Statistic in 2013. Yet it is still used to negotiate most wage settlements, calculate interest payments on index-linked gilts, and revalue excise duties. We have set out our above-consensus view on CPI inflation several times, including in yesterday's Monitor. But the potential for the gap between RPI and CPI inflation to widen over the coming years also threatens the markets' view that the former will remain subdued indefinitely.

19 Oct. 2015 Slowdown in Store as Fiscal Policy Tightens and Strong Pound Bites (Publication Centre)

A powerful cocktail of cheap money, labour and commodities, allowed to infuse by a hiatus in the government's austerity programme, has reinvigorated the U.K. economy over the last three years. But these supports are now weakening while new headwinds are emerging. The U.K. economy is heading for a pronounced slowdown, one that is under-appreciated by most forecasters and under-priced by markets.

20 Nov. 2015 EZ Current Account Surplus Goes from Strength to Strength (Publication Centre)

The current account surplus in the Eurozone is well on its way to stabilising above 3% of GDP this year. The seasonally adjusted surplus rose to €29.4B in September from a revised €18.7B in August, lifted by a higher trade surplus, thanks to rebounding German exports. The services balance was unchanged at €4.5B in September, while the primary income balance edged higher to €4.8B from €4.0B. The improving external balance has been driven mostly by a surging trade surplus with the U.S. and the U.K., as our first chart shows.

20 November 2019 Global Monitor The PBoC isn't done easing (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Only three outcomes of the Trump impeachment process • EUROZONE - EZ GDP growth has stabilised; what happens next? • U.K. - The Tories have a strong lead in the polls, but it will narrow in due course • ASIA - Fiscal stimulus in Japan means a return to the bad old days • LATAM - More rate cuts ahead in Mexico

21 August 2019 Global Monitor A rate cut to steepen the curve in Japan? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Third quarter growth looks decent, but the details are soft • EUROZONE - EZ bond markets remain primed for ECB easing next month • U.K. - Our U.K. service is on holiday, publication will resume on September 4 • ASIA - The PBoC's new interest rate policy faces supply-side challenges • LATAM - Further rate cuts on the way in LatAm

21 February 2019 How High Would Inflation Get After A No-deal Brexit? (Publication Centre)

With a no-deal Brexit still a potential outcome and just over five weeks to go until the U.K. is scheduled to leave, it's about time we put some numbers on how high inflation could get in this worst-case scenario.

20 May 2020 Global Monitor How much damage is being done in the EZ labour market? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The strength of the recovery is growing • EUROZONE - A full recovery will take time, but a turning point is looming • U.K. - GDP in the U.K. won't make a full recovery in H2 • ASIA - The V-shaped rebouned in Chinese manufacturing is at an end • LATAM - Further rate cuts on the way in Mexico

20 June. A Final Look at Post-Referendum Paths for Sterling (Publication Centre)

One way or the other, the post-referendum lurch in sterling will make its recent gyrations pale by comparison. If the U.K. votes to remain in the E.U.--as we continue to expect--then sterling likely will jump up to about $1.48 immediately afterwards. As our first chart shows, the gap between sterling and the level implied by the current difference between overnight index swap rates in the U.S. and Britain is currently about $0.05.

19 September 2018 How Would the MPC Respond to a No-deal Brexit? (Publication Centre)

A no-deal Brexit is a remote possibility. The U.K. government and EU are closing in on a deal and Brexiteers within the Conservative party have failed, so far, to trigger a confidence vote on Mrs. May's leadership.

2 Apr 2020 How Long Before the Government Lifts the Lockdown? (Publication Centre)

The duration and future scope of the current lockdown is the main uncertainty that U.K economic forecasters have to grapple with at present.

2 October 2019 Global Monitor A shift in the balance of risks in the EZ economy? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Follow the polling numbers for clues to Mr. Trump's impeachment fate. • EUROZONE - More bullish money supply data in the EZ. • U.K. - Continued momentum in GDP growth will keep the MPC from easing. • ASIA - The "repo crisis" is not just about the U.S; think central bank divergence. • LATAM - Banxico will ease further; their dovish tone is set to persist.

25 September 2019 Global Monitor U.S. core inflation will rise (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - We still think core inflation is headed higher next year • EUROZONE - Don't panic over grim September PMIs • U.K. - A pre-Brexit rate cut is still a long way from certain • ASIA - The BOJ is primed for action next month • LATAM - Brazil cuts rates, and more will follow later this year

17 August 2018 Pessimism Towards Retailers Looks Warranted, Despite July's Sales Rise (Publication Centre)

Equity prices for U.K. retailers have performed woefully since the E.U. referendum. The FTSE All-Share Index for general retailers has underperformed the overall All-Share Index by nearly 30% since the Brexit vote.

13 November 2019 Global Monitor The ECB is back, and this time with open-ended QE (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Hope for the economy if Mr. Trump strikes a quick deal with China • EUROZONE - Bad news; maybe Germany wasn't in recession after all in Q2/Q3 • U.K. - The MPC's dovish bias won't survive into next year • ASIA - No sign of life in Chinese M1 data; we're downgrading our 2020 forecast • LATAM - Inflation data still support dovish monetary policies in Brazil and Mexico

14 August 2019 Global Monitor Diminishing returns of Chinese easing? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Mr. Trump blinks, but some Chinese consumer goods will face tariffs • EUROZONE - Mr. Trump's recent tariff threats adds to the ECB's dovish convictions • U.K. - Low risk of a recession, despite Q2 fall in GDP • ASIA - China's economy isn't responding to easier monetary policy • LATAM - Our LatAm service is on holiday. Publication will resume next week

14 Dec. 2015 November Data Will Mark the First Step in Inflation's Long March Up (Publication Centre)

November's consumer prices figures, released tomorrow, look set to show that the U.K.'s spell of negative inflation has ended. CPI inflation is set to pick-up decisively over the coming months, even if oil prices continue to drift down. In fact, fuel prices likely will contribute to the pick-up in inflation from October's -0.1% rate. November's 1.5% fall in prices at the pump was smaller than the 2.3% drop in the same month last year, so the year-over-year rate will rise. Fuel's contribution to CPI inflation therefore will pick up, albeit very marginally, to -0.47pp from -0.50pp in October.

14 January 2019 November's Pick up in GDP Growth is Noise, not Signal (Publication Centre)

A cursory glance at November's GDP report gives the misleading impression that the U.K. economy is ticking over nicely, despite Brexit.

13 March 2018 Has the Brexit Risk Premium Disappeared? (Publication Centre)

Evidence that U.K. asset prices still are depressed by Brexit risk has become harder to find.

13 February 2018 Is a Second Referendum May's Only Way to Break the Impasse? (Publication Centre)

Suggestions that the U.K. government might choose to hold a second referendum have been constantly rebuffed by the Prime Minister.

12 May 2020 Brace for a GDP Drop of About 2.5% in Q1, Despite the Late Lockdown (Publication Centre)

The Q1 GDP figures, released on Wednesday, likely will show that the quarter-on-quarter decline in economic activity eclipsed the biggest decline in the 2008-to-09 recession--2.1% in Q4 2008--even though the U.K. went into lockdown towards the very end of the quarter.

13 Aug 2020 The Fastest Part of the Recovery in GDP Already Lies in the Past (Publication Centre)

The U.K. economy underperformed its peers to an extraordinary degree in Q2.

13 December 2018 Expect a Dovish Mr. Draghi Today, but Don't Bet Money on It (Publication Centre)

We suspect that today's ECB meeting will be a sideshow to the political chaos in the U.K., but that doesn't change the fact that the central bank's to-do list is long.

13 February 2017 Too Soon to Conclude the Economy is Finally Rebalancing (Publication Centre)

Data on industrial production and trade released last week have fanned hopes that the U.K.'s growth model is moving away from its excessive reliance on household spending, and towards production and exports. But a close look at the underlying drivers of the strong headline figures suggests that it is too soon to hope that the economy is undergoing a major rebalancing.

15 Apr 2020 An Advance Guide to Next Week's Data, They'll Be Grim (Publication Centre)

The U.K. Monitor will be on a short break soon for paternity leave, so we are taking this opportunity to preview next week's data releases.

15 Apr 2020 Global Monitor The pace of U.S. job losses seems to be slowing (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Collapsing confidence and mass job losses continue, but not forever. • U.K. - The lockdown is starting to work, but the next steps aren't clear. • ASIA - Positive signs as Chinese money supply and loan growth jump. • LATAM - The real hit from the virus is yet to come.

15 June. Reasons to Remain Calm About Brexit Risk (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, six of the eight opinion polls conducted over the seven days indicate that the U.K. will vote for Brexit on June 23. Our daily updated Chart of the Week, on page 3, shows the current state of play.

16 Nov. 2015 Ignore the Hysteria if Inflation Eased Further in October (Publication Centre)

October's consumer price figures, to be released tomorrow, look set to show CPI inflation easing to -0.2%, from -0.1%, below the no-change consensus and the lowest rate since March 1960. No doubt this will spark more hyperbolic headlines about the U.K.'s descent into pernicious deflation; ignore them. October's print will almost certainly represent the nadir and we think it will take only a year for CPI inflation to return to the MPC's 2% target.

16 October 2019 Global Monitor The silver lining in China's trade data (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Interim trade deal isn't enough to turn the economy around • EUROZONE - The Eurozone, and the euro, as an outperformer? • U.K. - Only a slim hope a last minute Brexit deal making it through parliament • ASIA - China's trade data are bad, but not that bad • LATAM - A strong Brazilian consumer, but misery in Mexican manufacturing

16th September 2020 Global Monitor Will the Fed announce state-contingent fwd guidance today? (Publication Centre)

• U.S.- Will the FOMC specify its rate guidance today? • EUROZONE - The EZ economy is close to the ceiling for its post-virus rebound • U.K.- The slowdown in GDP growth is set to continue • ASIA - Stimulus will propel China's economy well into 2021 • LATAM - Brazil's rebound continues, but it will soon fade

15 July 2020 Global Monitor More is coming from the ECB, but not this week (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The second Covid-19 wave is still biting, but the data are improving • EUROZONE - The stimulus money is still flowing in the EZ • U.K. - Hopes of a V-shaped rebound are evaporating • ASIA - China rebounded in Q2, but less so than the consensus expects • LATAM - Still-low inflation in Brazil; Mexico's manufacturing malaise persists

15 Jan 2020 Global Monitor A more positive start to the year in LatAm? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - No need for the Fed to ease this year • EUROZONE - The big picture in the EZ economy • U.K. - The MPC will hold rates steady, despite chatter of a cut • ASIA - Chinese GDP growth didn't recover in Q4, but it probably stabilised • LATAM - No serious inflation threat for Brazil in 2020

15 April 2019 What Does the Art 50 Extension Say About the EU's Brexit View (Publication Centre)

The EU's decision to grant the U.K. an extension under Article 50, until October 31, reveals two key aspects of continental Europe's position on Brexit.

15 Feb. 2016 Stronger CPI Figures to Dispel Fears of Ingrained Deflation (Publication Centre)

January's consumer price data, released tomorrow, look set to reveal a third consecutive rise in CPI inflation, dampening speculation that the U.K. is stuck in a deflationary funk. Indeed, we think CPI inflation picked up to 0.4%, from 0.2% in December, above the consensus, 0.3%.

15 February 2019 January Retail Sales Will Stop the Flow of Downbeat News (Publication Centre)

We expect the run of downbeat news on the U.K. economy to be punctuated today by January's retail sales figures.

21 July 2020 The Housing Market Won't Defy Gravity for Long (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s property obsession has been immune to Covid-19, so far.

17 July 2019 Global Monitor BOE tightening is deferred, not abandoned (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Cutting rates by 50bp would be risky for the Fed • EUROZONE - Further ECB easing all but confirmed • U.K. - A pause at the BOE means more hikes in 2020 • LATAM - A pick-up in external demand will soon support economies in LatAm • * Our Asia economics team is on annual leave, publication will resume July 30.

23 October 2018 Will Yields on Gilts Close the Gap with Treasuries? (Publication Centre)

The gap between U.K. and U.S. government bond yields has continued to grow this year and is approaching a record.

23 October 2019 Global Monitor Could the U.S. economy shrink in Q4? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Political uncertainty is rising in the U.S.; what happens next? • EUROZONE - Foreigners are slowly returning to EZ asset markets • U.K. - Passing the Brexit deal won't give the economy relief • ASIA - China's economy is still stuck; a rate cut is needed • LATAM - New elections in Argentina will see the economy go backwards

23 Sept 2019 Could a Tweaked Brexit Deal get Through the Commons? (Publication Centre)

Sterling rallied to $1.25 last week--its highest level against the dollar since Boris Johnson became PM in mid-July--amid growing speculation that a Brexit deal still was possible in the next couple of weeks, enabling the U.K. to leave the E.U. on October 31.

23rd September 2020 Global Monitor China's economy is recovering, on the surface (Publication Centre)

• U.S.-Is outcome based forward guidance on QE coming? • EUROZONE - The ECB's optimistic line on core inflation won't hold • U.K.- We still expect more QE, now in December • ASIA - China's economy is gaining momentum, on the surface • LATAM - LatAm's recovery is strengthening

23 January 2017 Threats to Make Britain a Corporate Tax Haven Lack Credibility (Publication Centre)

Both the Prime Minister and Chancellor last week threatened to cut business taxes aggressively to persuade multinationals to remain in Britain in the event of hard Brexit. But these threats lack credibility, given the likely lingering weakness of the public finances by the time of the U.K.'s departure from the EU and the scale of demographic pressures set to weigh on public spending over the next decade.

23 February 2018 Even Q4's Modest GDP Growth Relied on Unsustainable Supports (Publication Centre)

U.K. activity data have consistently surprised to the downside over the last month.

22 Apr 2020 Global Monitor This chart would look much worse without Fed easing (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - U.S. states will try to emulate Sweden's Covid-19 strategy; will it work? • EUROZONE - Lockdowns are easy, but what are the criteria for re-opening? • U.K. - Our U.K. economics team is on paternity leave • ASIA - China's GDP is set to contract through 2020 as a whole • LATAM - LatAm central banks have cover to ease further

22 Jan 2020 Global Monitor Will the BOE cut rates later this month? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The trend in core inflation is stable, despite soft December data • EUROZONE - The Q4 jump in core inflation won't shift the ECB's dovish outlook • U.K. - All eyes on the PMI this week; it could determine the January BOE decision • ASIA - China's economy is weaker than the headlines suggest • LATAM - Black Friday boosted retail sales in Brazil, but less than expected

22 July 2020 Global Monitor Covid Case Curves Bending in Arizona and Florida (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The surge in retail sales is not all that it seems, and it might not last • EUROZONE - The Eurozone economics team is on vacation • U.K. - Not all near-real-time economic indicators are created equal • ASIA - China's Q2 GDP bounce was good, but not that good • LATAM - What would a Biden victory mean for LatAm?

22 Oct. 2015 Will Simply Holding The E.U. Referendum Harm The Economy? (Publication Centre)

Discussion about whether the U.K. would be better off voting to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum is rarely out of the press, raising the question of whether simply holding the national vote could damage the economy even if the U.K. votes for the status quo in the end.

24 August 2018 What Probability are Markets Attaching to a No-Deal Brexit? (Publication Centre)

Speculation that the U.K. will end up leaving the E.U. in March without a deal has dominated the headlines over the last month. Politicians on both sides of the Channel have warned that the probability of a no-deal Brexit is at least as high as 50%, even though more than 80% of the withdrawal deal already has been agreed.

24 Feb 2020 PMIs Point to Above-Trend Growth, Despite Virus and Weather Headwinds (Publication Centre)

The flash readings of the Markit/CIPS surveys in February provide reassurance that GDP is on track to rebound in Q1, despite disruption to the global economy caused by the COVID-19 outbreak and bad weather in the U.K. this month.

24 November 2017 GDP Growth Remains too Reliant on Households Saving Less (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second estimate of Q3 GDP confirmed that the U.K. economy has underperformed this year.

25 Feb. 2016 Is Brexit as Likely as the Markets Seem to Think? (Publication Centre)

Sterling weakened further yesterday in response to the perception that the odds of the U.K. leaving the E.U. in the June referendum are rising. Cable fell to $1.39, its lowest level since March 2009. It is now $0.12 below the level one would anticipate from markets' expectations for short rates, as our chart of the week on page three shows.

25 July. 2016 Should We Believe the Downbeat PMI? (Publication Centre)

Last week's news that the composite PMI collapsed to 47.7 in July--its lowest level since April 2009--from 52.4 in June is the first clear indication that the U.K. is heading for a recession.

25 Mar 2020 Global Monitor A glimmer of hope in the European Covid-19 data (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The Fed is on the ball, but Congress is behind the curve • EUROZONE - The recession has arrived; how long will it last? • U.K. - The PMIs are dreadful, but they still likely understate the incoming slowdown • ASIA - Chinese banks are screaming for a rate cut • LATAM - LatAm policymakers are doing what they can to fight the virus

24 Nov. 2015 Will Gilts Decouple as US Treasury Yields Rise? (Publication Centre)

A less rapid tightening of monetary policy in the U.K. than in the U.S. should ensure that gilt yields don't move in lockstep with U.S. Treasury yields over the coming years. But the outlook for monetary policy isn't the only influence on gilt yields. We expect low levels of market liquidity in the secondary market, high levels of gilt issuance and overseas concerns about the possibility of the U.K.'s exit from the E.U. to add to the upward pressure on gilt yields.

24 June. 2016 Markets Wild After Brexit Vote, LatAm Currencies Under Pressure (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s unexpected vote for Brexit means a stronger USD for the foreseeable future, pressure on EM currencies and increasing risk premiums. LatAm fundamentals will a sideshow for some time. The focus will be on the currencies, which will be the main shock absorbers.

24 July 2019 Global Monitor The ECB will take a step towards a rate cut this week (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The boom in multi-family construction is over, for now • EUROZONE - The ECB will lay the ground for a rate cut this week • U.K. - A general election is coming, but not until 2020 • LATAM - A stable currency will allow rate cuts in Mexico in H2 • * Our Asia economics team is on annual leave.

24 June 2020 Global Monitor The virus is back in Germany (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The recovery continues, but weak spots are emerging • EUROZONE - We are still not very excited about the EZ TLTROs • U.K. - The MPC will do more QE in Q4 • ASIA - Is a second wave coming to East Asia? • LATAM - Fiscal and monetary policy to the rescue in Latam?

24 June. 2016 Brexit Implications for the U.S: No Immediate Fed Easing (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s unexpected vote for Brexit means a stronger dollar for the foreseeable future, a sharp though likely containable drop in U.S. stock prices, and a further delay before the Fed next raises rates. The vote does not necessarily mean the U.K. actually will leave the EU, because the policy choices now facing leaders of Union have changed dramatically. An offer of substantial concessions on the migration issue--the single biggest driver of the Leave vote-- might be enough to trigger a second referendum, but this is a consideration for another day.

21 Oct. 2015 Recovery Won't Shrug Off The Fiscal Squeeze (Publication Centre)

The conventional wisdom that the U.K. economy will comfortably weather the coming fiscal squeeze is misplaced. The planned adjustment is large, designed to minimise its political, not economic, impact, and based on overly optimistic assumptions. What's more, the economy is in many respects less well-placed to cope with the tightening than when the previous government applied the fiscal brakes. And when the recovery slows, the Chancellor is less likely to change tack and ease the squeeze this time.

25 October 2018 Winter is Coming for the British Housing Market (Publication Centre)

Mortgage approvals by the main high street banks dropped to a five-month low of 38.5K in September, from 39.2K in August, according to trade body U.K.Finance.

U.K. Key Issues (Publication Centre)

BUSINESS INSIDER UK - BRITAIN BEATS -- GDP figures shrug off Brexit and smash expectations (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Q3 Preliminary GDP data

CBS NEWS - GM plant closings, layoffs indicate a cooling U.S. economy (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in October

Business Insider - We just got another sign that Brexit is ending the consumer boom (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales

Business Insider - There's a coming storm set to 'batter' the UK economy -- and it has nothing to do with Brexit (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs the recent increase in Oil

Business Insider - The Tories might not get the crushing victory they expect in this election (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing the General Election in June

City AM - Rising confidence from consumers and businesses point to faster growth in second quarter (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. Consumer Confidence

Financial Times - Analysts warn rise in UK retail sales may be a 'blip' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs ok U.K. Retail Sales

FINANCIAL TIMES - British shoppers delay spending ahead of Black Friday (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. CBI survey, November

Financial Times - 'Shackles are still on': analysts respond to UK economic growth data (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. growth data

Express - Price growth set to slow for June - but analysts predict further inflation this year (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Consumer Price Index, June

CNBC - Fed hike hint surprises economist (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Ian Shepherdson on Brexit risk to a June rate hike

CNBC - When will the BoE raise Interest Rates? (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation and the BoE

Business Insider - The pound's general election jump faces a 'swift reversal' as reality takes hold (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing the effect the general election will have on the pound,

Business Insider - The only analyst who called the June 8 election correctly now says there is 'clear evidence that the Brexit vote has been bad for the economy' (Media Centre)

A look back on Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Toombs' predictions ahead of the U.K. General Election

BBC NEWS - UK construction sector slows down in January (Media Centre)

Chief U.K.. economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. Construction

BBC NEWS - UK new car sales rise in September (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. New Car Sales

BBC News - Government borrowing in June highest since 2015 (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Public Sector borrowing

BBC NEWS - Government borrowing falls in first half of year (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Government borrowing

BBC - UK third quarter GDP confirmed at 0.5% (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on UK Q3 GDP

BBC - Wage growth hit by higher inflation (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest U.K. Labour Market Data

BBC NEWS - Warm weather lifts retail sales in July (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in July

BLOOMBERG - ECB "Will have more easing" (Media Centre)

Founder and chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the U.S. economy and U.K. Inflation

BUSINESS INSIDER - The idea that Brexit isn't totally screwing the economy is 'baloney' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the impact of the Referendum

Business Insider - London's house prices are growing at their slowest rate since 2012 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Nationwide's June House Price Index

BUSINESS INSIDER - Britain's government could make the pound's crash even worse (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the government's fiscal policy

BUSINESS INSIDER - Brits are hoarding cash post-Brexit -- and it's a 'worrying signal' for the economy (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Money Supply

Financial Times - Confidence in UK house prices wobbles despite October rise (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. House Prices

Financial Times - Halifax data strengthen evidence of uptick in UK house prices (Media Centre)

Chief U.K Economist Samuel Tombs on UK Halifax House Prices in July

Independent - UK mortgage lending rises ahead of possible rate rise (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Halifax House Price data

Independent - UK pay growth data disappoints again as real wages decline at fastest rate in three years (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Labour Market data for May

Independent - UK house price growth drops to five-year low as London remains worst-performing region (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

Independent - UK economy growth could slip due to North Sea pipeline shutdown, warn experts (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. economy growth

Guardian - Weak UK growth and tax revenues put the squeeze on Hammond (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on UK Government Borrowing

INDEPENDENT - The chart that shows the UK economic recovery is "on its knees" (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. PMI data, April

NEWS.MARKETS - Brexit? Bremain? How soon will markets know? (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Referendum

NEWS.MARKETS - Sterling markets accused of inflation complacency (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

REUTERS - UK manufacturing outlook darkens, retail sales slip (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. Manufacturing

SKY NEWS - Weakening tax receipts hurt public finances in September (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Public Finances

REUTERS - UK inflation was zero in 2015 despite December lift (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

Reuters - UK factory output falls for first time in almost a year (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing Output

REUTERS - Cheaper petrol pushes UK inflation to lowest since March 2017 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

GUARDIAN - UK service companies anxious about year ahead (Media Centre)

Chief U.K.. economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. PMI

GUARDIAN - UK manufacturers suffer further drop in orders, CBI survey shows (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. manufacturing

GUARDIAN - Brexit uncertainty hits plans to cut budget deficit (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Public Finances

Guardian - Record rise in import costs dents growth in UK manufacturing (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

FINANCIAL TIMES - UK housing market stabilises after Brexit vote (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Mortgage Approvals

FINANCIAL TIMES - UK house price falls - how much is down to Brexit? (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

Financial Times - Inflation dip raises doubts over May interest rate rise (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. Inflation

FINANCIAL TIMES - Jobs data give Bank of England leverage to keep rates low (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. employment

Guardian - UK consumers face sharpest price rise in services for nearly a decade (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Price Increases

Guardian - UK factory output grows at fastest rate since mid-1990s (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey

Guardian - UK house prices fell in January for the first time in five months (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

GUARDIAN - UK inflation steady at 2.4% in October after food price war (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

GUARDIAN - UK house prices edge up 0.2% in April (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

GUARDIAN - UK house price growth up in final set of figures before vote to leave EU (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

Guardian - UK GDP growth slower than expected as inflation bites (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing Q1 GDP Results

BBC - UK retail sales hit by mild autumn (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in October

BBC - UK manufacturing output at its highest for 10 years (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing Output

TELEGRAPH - Why Britain's shopping spree will come at a cost (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. employment

Telegraph - Tax hikes add to inflation pressure (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

THE GUARDIAN - British service sector back in growth, according to latest data (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Services sector

The Guardian - Fears of no-deal Brexit push British export orders close to year low (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

Sunday Times - Pound's fall 'the worst devaluation in history' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing the devaluation of the GBP

THE GUARDIAN - UK manufacturing expects hard winter ahead (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

THE GUARDIAN - Shock UK deficit figures dent George Osborne's economic plan (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K Deficit

TELEGRAPH - House prices soar, fuelled by sky-high rises in London flats - but uncertainty lies ahead (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

Telegraph - House price growth jumps to highest since March despite weaker market post-Brexit vote (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Halifax House Price Index in December

THE TELEGRAPH - Britain remains stuck in deflation (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. inflation

THE TELEGRAPH - Boost for George Osborne as UK borrowing drops in December (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. economist Samuel Tombs comments on today's retail data release

TELEGRAPH - Building sector slows down and could even fall into recession (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Construction

THE TELEGRAPH - UK construction declines for third straight month (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. construction

Wall Street Journal - Britain's New Housing Dilemma (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs discussing the U.K. Monetary Policy

TELEGRAPH - 'Robust' house price growth fuelled by buy-to-let and low supply (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Nationwide House Prices

WSJ - Britain's Pound Depreciation Isn't Working (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the Depreciation of the Pound

THE GUARDIAN - UK manufacturing growth slows in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

TELEGRAPH - UK house prices slip as market feels a chill (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

BBC - UK car sales fall for fifth month in a row (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. New Car Registrations

BBC - UK car sales fall 9.3% in July says motor trade body (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. New Car Registrations, July

BBC - House prices in UK shift to lower gear (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. House Prices

BBC - UK economic growth 'stalls' as service sector slides (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. PMI data in November

BBC - UK goods trade gap biggest on record (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs Discussing the UK Goods Trade

BBC - UK economic growth slows to 0.4% in first quarter (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

BBC - UK economy grows at fastest rate since late 2016 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP in Q3

BBC - Banks report new year buy-to-let rush (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Mortgage approvals

BBC - UK government borrowing lowest for 11 years (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Government Borrowing

BBC - UK industrial production shrank in 2015 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Industrial Production

BBC - UK government borrowing narrows after EU credit (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Government Borrowing

*June 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

"Gradual" normalization continues, for now...No fourth dot until September

Daily Economic Monitor

Daily economic research from the U.S., Eurozone, Latin America, U.K. and Asia

*February 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Has the wages dam finally burst? If it hasn't, it will soon

Weekly Economic Monitor

Weekly economic research from the U.S., Eurozone, Latin America, U.K. and Asia

*June 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Payroll "Slowdown" Won't Last... The Fed Will Hike This Month, and Again Later This Year

*July 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Fed plans to keep on hiking...falling unemployment is the key, not the softer CPI

*December 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Slowdown Story is Overdone...If a China Deal is Done, the Fed Will Keep Hiking

*February 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Fed Is All-In On The Slowdown Story...But They're Playing With Fire In The Labor Market

*January 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Strong growth, rising inflation greet Powel...but is productivity growth finally picking up?

*January 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Slower Growth This Year Is Invevitable...But That Doesn't Make Zero Hikes Inevitable Too

*July 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Fed hawks are in the ascendancy,..but they won't be fully in charge until next year

*April 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Don't be Deceived by the Consumer Slowdown...It's a One-Time Transition to Sustainability

*September 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Harvey and Irma will shred late q3/q4 data... ...if the fed doesn't hike in December, they will in march

*October 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Serious Slowdown is Still Some Way Off...So the Fed has to Keep Turning the Screws

*October 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Yellen's inner hawk escapes...Expect a December hike, and four more next year

*September 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Fed is Not Nearly Done...Real Rates are Still Far Too Low; No Slowdown in Sight

*May 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Don't be distracted by weak first quarter GDP...The Fed doesn't care (much)

*May 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The cycle is peaking as higher rates begin to bite...but the next downturn is still some way off

*November 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Sub -4% Unemployment is coming, and soon...How will the Fed respond?

*November 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Growth Has Peaked as the Tax Cut Boost Fades...But the Labor Market is Keeping the Fed on Track

*June 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The fed is in a double bind: what to expect, and what to do

*May 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Q1 Growth Is Unsustainable...But The Labor Market Will Continue To Tighten

*August 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Fed tightening is deferred, not cancelled...Expected a December hike after robust fall data

*August 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The fed will keep hiking each quarter...they are chasing unemployment, not inflation

*April 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Trade talk and falling stocks are hurting...but the fed is still on course for four hikes this year

*April 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Tightening Labor Market is all that Matters...Expect the Fed to Hike at Each Quarter-End

*March 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

"Cross-Currents" Will Keep the Fed Safe For Now....But The Headwinds Already Are Starting To Ease

*March 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Powell is a growth bull, not an inflation hawk...Interest rate risk is greater for 2019 than 2018

*December 2017 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Growth, inflation to challenge the Fed in 2018...faster wage growth will push them too

Question of the Week, WC 14th September 2020 (Media Centre)

Is the monetary easing cycle in Brazil over?

NBC - How a 'no-deal' Brexit would have ripple effects on U.S. companies (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the effects of a no-deal Brexit on the EU

BBC - Samuel Tombs discussing the Energy Price Cap (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs, Chief Eurozone Economist, discussing the Energy Price Cap on BBC News

Question of the Week, WC 12th October 2020 (Media Centre)

Will the EU's recovery fund be delayed?

Question of the Week, WC 7th September 2020 (Media Centre)

Has the Internal Market Bill killed off the chances of a trade deal with the E.U.?

Products and Services

Information on the product and services available from Pantheon Macroeconomics. Research is delivered in a variety of forms depending on clients' subscription package.

About Us

Pantheon Macroeconomics' Chief Economist Dr. Ian Shepherdson provides unbiased, independent economic intelligence to financial market professionals.

index

Welcome to Pantheon Macroeconomics, leading provider of Independent Macroeconomic Research

Privacy Policy

Privacy policy for the Pantheon Macroeconomics website.

Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.

Pantheon Macroeconomics, Inc. Swiss-EU Privacy Shield Policy

Privacy policy for the Pantheon Macroeconomics website.

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: Search Results: 911

pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research