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1 Dec. 2015 The Real Net Trade Drag on U.K. Growth is Still to Come (Publication Centre)

It's tempting to conclude from the third quarter's GDP figures, which showed output rising 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, despite a record drag from net trade, that the U.K. economy is comfortably weathering sterling's appreciation. But a closer look at the data shows the net trade drag is the counterparty to some erratic inventory movements. The real net trade hit is still to come.

03 Feb. 2016 Would a Renminbi Depreciation Derail the Pick-up in U.K. Inflation? (Publication Centre)

Investors are increasingly anxious that an intentional sharp devaluation of the renminbi, aiming to combat China's slowdown, might lead to prolonged deflation in the West, particularly in an economy as open as the U.K.

19 July. 2016 EZ July Survey Data Will be Tainted by the U.K. Referendum Result (Publication Centre)

Today's ZEW investor sentiment report in Germany will kick off a busy week for Eurozone economic survey data, which likely will be tainted by the U.K. referendum result. We think the headline ZEW expectations index fell to about five in July, from 19.2 in June, below the consensus forecast, 9.2. Our forecastis based on the experience from recent "unexpected" shocks to investors' sentiment.

30 Nov. 2015 Stress Tests Should Underline Greater Resilience of U.K. Banks (Publication Centre)

The resilience of the U.K. financial system will be in focus this week. On Tuesday, the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority, the PRA, will publish the results of stress tests of the U.K.'s seven largest banks. Concurrently, the Bank's Financial Policy Committee, the FPC, will publish its semi-annual Financial Stability Report and announce whether it will deploy any of its macroprudential tools.

U.K. Webinar - Oct 2017 (Publication Centre)

When Will U.K. Rates Rise?

02 Mar. 2016 The Manufacturing PMI Shows that the U.K.'s Slowdown is Homegrown (Publication Centre)

Further compelling signs that the U.K. has lost its status as one of the fastest growing advanced economies were presented by the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey, released yesterday. The PMI fell in February to 50.8--its lowest level since April 2013--from 52.9 in January.

*June 2017 - U.K. General Election Conference Call Charts* (Publication Centre)

U.K. Conference Call Charts - June 2017

24 June. 2016 The U.K. Wants out of the EU, and Markets are Not Happy (Publication Centre)

The two polls suggesting the U.K. would remain in the EU yesterday proved to be a noose for investors to hang themselves with, as the results pointed to a vote for Brexit. Markets already are in disarray, and the direction is as we expected and feared. EUR/GBP is up 7%, and the DAX 30 in Germany is indicated by futures to plunge a hefty 7%-to-8% at the open. Bund yields will collapse too, and all eyes will be on the spread between Germany and the rest of the periphery.

20 Oct. 2015 Slowdown in U.K. GDP Growth to Dent EZ Exports Next Year? (Publication Centre)

Our new Chief U.K. economist, Samuel Tombs, initiated his coverage yesterday with a sombre, non-consensus, message on the economy. Headwinds from fiscal tightening and net trade will weigh on GDP growth next year, but the BoE will likely have to look through such cyclical weakness, and hike as inflation creeps higher. An intensified drag from net trade in the U.K. will, other things equal, benefit the Eurozone. But a slowdown in U.K. GDP growth still poses a notable risk to euro area headline export growth, especially in the latter part of next year.

*September 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The MPC talks up raising bank rate soon...but weak wage growth likely will mean it hesitates

28 March 2017 Could a Rebounding Eurozone Prevent a U.K. Slowdown? (Publication Centre)

Business surveys coming out of the Eurozone have been remarkably strong recently. The composite PMI for the Eurozone jumped to 56.7 in March--its highest level since April 2011--from 56.1 in February. Germany's IFO business climate index leaped to a 67-month high in March.

*September 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The MPC is Back in "Wait and See" Mode...But Two Hikes Likely in 2019, Provided No-Deal Avoided

*Nov. 2016 - U.K.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Exports won't offset a Consumer Slowdown...Sterling decline has Constrained Policymakers

*May 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A rise in inflation will support an August hike....the MPC likely will tighten at a faster rate next year

U.K. Webinar - Q1, 2018 (Publication Centre)

Will Inflation force the MPC's hand this year?

23 June. 2016 What Would Happen in the Eurozone if the U.K. Left the EU? (Publication Centre)

People across Europe are growing wary over the failure of governments to foster economic security since the 2008 crisis. Their conclusion increasingly is that the EU is to blame, so their support for EU-sceptic, and even right-wing nationalist, parties has increased accordingly.

*November 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A year will pass before rates rise again...growth will slow and inflation will fall swiftly

*May 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Rising Inflation has ended the consumer boom...Investment and Trade won't fill the void

U.K. H1 2017 Outlook - High Inflation Will Cripple Consumers and Tie Policymakers' Hands (Publication Centre)

The adverse consequences of the Brexit vote will become painfully clear in 2017.....

*October 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Rates On Hold Until After the Brexit Deadline...But Two Hikes Likely in 2019, When Capex Rebounds

26 Feb. 2016 The Foundations of the U.K. Recovery are Remarkably Fragile (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 was left unrevised, but that was the only nugge t of good news from yesterday's second GDP release. The expenditure breakdown hardly could have looked more troubling.

*April 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Rising Inflation is Causing a Sharp Slowdown...Sterling's Depreciation has been Harmful so Far

*July 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Growth is too slow to warrant a rate hike...domestically-generated inflation remain weak

*Jan 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A consumer and investment slowdown beckons...Tighter macro policy will worsen the downturn

*February 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The MPC is mulling hiking rates again soon...but activity and inflation data imply no need to rush

*July 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Growth won't accelerate until next year...but the MPC is set to hike rates in August anyway

*June 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Real wage falls are slowing the economy...Fears of rate hikes this year are overblown

*March 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Markets think a May rate hike is almost certain...but activity and inflation data point to a delay

*March 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Consumers are buckling under high inflation...but the MPC won't add to their woes by hiking rates

*June 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The economy is struggling to rebound in Q2...an August rate hike is far from a done deal

*Feb 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Consumer slowdown is under way...Policymakers will not provide more stimulus

*December 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brexit and fiscal headwinds have lessended...but consumers' spending will struggle in 2018

*April 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

MPC to delay in May due to Q1 GDP and Inflation...Political risks will resurface later this year

H2 2017 U.K. Outlook - Weak GDP and Wage Growth Will Keep Higher Interest Rates at Bay (Publication Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

*August 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Sterling's fall is hurting more than it's helping...Slow GDP and wage growth will keep the MPC inactive

*Dec. 2016 - U.K.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Consumer and Investment Slowdown Beckons......Tighter Macro Policy will worsen the downturn

*August 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

GDP growth won't accelerate until next year...Low inflation will ease pressure to hike rates again

19 April 2017 Another Political Hand Grenade is Thrown in European Politics (Publication Centre)

Economic news in Europe continues to take a back-seat to volatility in politics. Yesterday's announcement by U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May that she is seeking a snap general election on June 8th cast further doubt over what exactly Brexit will look like.

19 Feb. 2016 The Main EZ Economies Will Try to Accommodate Mr. Cameron (Publication Centre)

Talks between the EU and the U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron are expected to culminate with a deal today, but we doubt this week's summit will be the final word. A detailed re-negotiation of the U.K.'s relationship with the EU is the last thing the large continental economies need at the moment.

30 June. 2016 The Fed's Focus Will Return to the Wage Outlook, Unchanged by Brexit (Publication Centre)

We aren't materially changing our U.S. economic forecasts in the wake of the U.K.'s Brexit vote, though we have revised our financial forecasts. The net tightening of financial conditions in the U.S. since the referendum is just not big enough--indeed, it's nothing like big enough--to justify moving our economic forecasts.

23 June. 2016 Brexit Would Trigger a Dollar Surge, But it's an Unlikely Outcome (Publication Centre)

With most poll-of-poll measures showing a very narrow margin in the U.K. Brexit referendum, while betting markets show a huge majority for "Remain", today brings a live experiment in the idea that the wisdom of crowds is a better guide to elections than peoples' preferences.

27 June. 2016 Brexit Constrains Fed, but Limited U.S. Fallout Means December is Live (Publication Centre)

By the close on Friday, the initial reaction in U.S. markets to the U.K. Brexit vote could be characterized as a bad day at the office, but nothing worse. Not a meltdown, not a catastrophe, no exposure of suddenly dangerous fault lines.That's not to say all danger has passed, but the first hurdle has been overcome.

19 Apr. Are the Treasury's Brexit Calculations Plausible? (Publication Centre)

The Treasury waded in to the Brexit debate yesterday with a 200-page report concluding that U.K. GDP would be 6.2% lower in 2030 than otherwise if Britain left the E.U. and entered into a bilateral trade deal similar to the one recently agreed by Canada. All long-term economic projections should come with health warnings, and the Treasury's precise numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt.

27 Apr. Markets' View that Brexit Odds Have Declined Looks Premature (Publication Centre)

Sterling has rallied against both the dollar and the euro over the last week on the assumption that interventions by the U.K. Treasury and President Obama in the Brexit debate have shifted public opinion towards remaining in the E.U.

27 June. 2016 Life After Brexit: LatAm Suffers Higher Volatility, But Will Survive (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s unexpected decision to vote to leave the E.U. will have serious ramifications for the global economy, and LatAm economies are unlikely to emerge unscathed. It is very difficult to quantify the short-term effects due to the intricacies of the financial transmission channels into the real economy.

27 June. 2016 Plunging Investment Will Be the Main Driver of the Brexit Downturn (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s political situation is extremely fluid, so it would be risky automatically to assume that the U.K. is heading for Brexit. Although the Prime Minister has resigned, his attempt to hold out until October to begin the formal process of exiting the E.U. signals that he may be seeking to engineer a revised deal, or at least to force his successor to make the momentous decision of whether to trigger Article 50, to begin the leaving process.

21 June. How Soon Will we Know the Referendum Result? (Publication Centre)

Investors will have to keep their wits about them following the close of polls at 22:00 BST on Thursday. Sterling and other asset prices will move sharply when the likely result of the U.K.'s E.U. referendum is discernible, but exactly when that point will come during the night is uncertain.

22 June. 2016 Resilient EZ Survey Data Ahead, but Sentiment Would Fall on Brexit (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ZEW investor sentiment in Germany shows showed no signs that uncertainty over the U.K. referendum is taking its toll on EZ investors. The expectations index surged to 19.2 in June, from 6.4 in May, the biggest month-to-month jump since January last year, when investors were eagerly expecting the ECB's QE announcement.

3 May. How Far Would Sterling Fall if Britain Chose Brexit? (Publication Centre)

Most of the time, sterling broadly tracks a path implied by the difference between markets' expectations for interest rates in the U.K. and overseas. During the financial crisis, however, sterling fell much further than interest rate differentials implied, as our first chart shows.

13 June. 2016 Banxico's Dilemma: Help the Recovery or Support the MXN? (Publication Centre)

Markets are still discounting Banxico rate increases in the near term, despite the fact that Mexico's inflation is under control. Unless the MXN goes significantly above 18.7 per USD in the near term, or activity accelerates, we see little scope for rate increases until after the Fed hikes. After May's soft U.S. payrolls, and in light of the economic and financial risk posed by the U.K. referendum, we think a hike this week is unlikely.

11 Nov. 2015 The Revival in North Sea Oil Production Won't Last (Publication Centre)

The large unexpected surge in oil and gas output this year has boosted the overall economic recovery significantly. But this looks like the last hurrah for a sector of the U.K. economy in terminal decline.

12 Feb. 2016 Collapse in Equity Prices Still Not a Convincing Signal of Recession (Publication Centre)

The downturn in equity prices deepened yesterday, with the FTSE 100 index closing at 5,537, 22% below its April 2015 peak. We remain unconvinced, however, that financial market turmoil is set to push the U.K. economy into a recession. We continue to take comfort from the weakness of the past relationship between equity prices and economic activity.

6 September. 2016 Too Soon to Breathe a Sigh of Relief on Recession Risk (Publication Centre)

The improvement in the August services PMI has generated hyperbolic headlines suggesting the U.K. is on a tear despite the Brexit vote. Taken literally, however, the PMIs suggest that the revival in business activity in August only partially reversed July's decline. Meanwhile, the impact of sterling's sharp depreciation on the purchasing power of firms and consumers has only just begun to be felt.

11 Dec. 2015 The MPC is Independent, But it Cannot Ignore Other Central Banks (Publication Centre)

The MPC's asserted its independence in the minutes of December's meeting, firmly stating that there is "no mechanical link between UK policy and those of other central banks". Markets have interpreted this as supporting their view that the MPC won't be rushed into raising interest rates by the Fed's actions. Investors now expect a nine-month gap between the Fed hike we anticipate next week, and the first move in the U.K.

8 August. 2016 The Term Funding Scheme is Not a Game-Changer (Publication Centre)

Economists failed to foresee the U.K.'s growth spurt in 2013 partly because they underestimated the positive impact of the Funding for Lending Scheme, launched in mid-2012. In fact, the FLS was so successful at stimulating mortgage lending that it had to be "refocussed" to apply solely to business lending in January 2014.

9 September. 2016 iPhone Price Hike Underlines Incoming In ation Shock (Publication Centre)

The consequences of sterling's sharp depreciation for inflation were brought home yesterday by the news that the iPhone 7 will cost more than its predecessor. The entry-level version is priced at £60 more than its iPhone 6S equivalent. Of course, the new version is more advanced, but the fact that the dollar price held steady, at $649, demonstrates the U.K. price hike entirely is due to the adverse impact of the weaker pound.

9 August. 2016 London Will Continue to Bear the Brunt of the Downturn (Publication Centre)

London has been the U.K.'s growth star for the last two decades. Between 1997 and 2014, yearover-year growth in nominal Gross Value Added averaged 5.4% in London, greatly exceeding the 4% rate across the rest of the country. Surveys since the referendum, however, indicate that the capital is at the sharp end of the post-referendum downturn.

8 Dec. 2015 Productivity Growth Still too Weak to Prevent Inflation Rebound (Publication Centre)

By any yardstick, U.K. productivity growth has been terrible in recent years. Output per hour exceeded its pre-recession peak only in the second quarter of 2015, and it has grown at an average annual rate of just 0.6% this decade. U.S. productivity growth has been equally dismal since 2010. But the U.K.'s performance is more worrying, because the productivity slump during the recession suggested scope for a period of catch-up. In the U.S., by contrast, productivity surged during the recession as firms cut headcount sharply.

13 Jan. 2016 Sterling Has Not Priced-in Brexit Risks Yet, Despite Recent Plunge (Publication Centre)

Claims abound that sterling's sharp depreciation since the start of the year--to its lowest level against the dollar since May 2010--partly reflects the growing risk that the U.K. will vote to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum. We see little evidence to support this assertion. Sterling's decline to date can be explained by the weakness of the economic data, meaning that scope remains for Brexit fears to push the currency even lower this year.

5 July. 2016 EZ Manufacturing Will Lose Out if the Brexit Fallout Increases (Publication Centre)

It will take months, and perhaps years, before markets have any clarity on the U.K.'s new relationship with the EU. In the U.K., the main parties remain shell-shocked. Both leading candidates for the Tory leadership, and, hence, the post of Prime Minister, have said that they would wait before triggering Article 50.

30 September 2016 Britain is Turning to Debt to Maintain an Illusion of Prosperity (Publication Centre)

Today's balance of payments figures for the second quarter likely will underline that the U.K. has financed strong growth in domestic consumption by amassing debts with the rest of the world at a breakneck pace.

17 June. Price Rises Will Soon Call Time on the Retail Sales Splurge (Publication Centre)

Sharp increases in retail sales over the last two months suggest that consumers are not overly concerned by the risk that the U.K. could leave the E.U. next week. Sales volumes rose 0.9% month-on-month in May, and April's surge was revised larger, to 1.9% from 1.3%.

16 Dec. 2015 The Cyclical Rise in Labour Participation Has Run Its Course (Publication Centre)

Rapid growth in labour supply has enabled the U.K. economy to grow quickly over the last three years without generating excessive wage or inflation pressure. The rise in the participation rate--the proportion of those aged over 16 in or looking for work--has been critical to this revival. But the rise in the participation rate largely has reflected cyclical factors rather than a sustainable upward trend, and the downward pressure on participation from demographic factors will build over the coming years.

18 Apr. Britain's Employment Miracle is Finally Losing its Shine (Publication Centre)

One of the most eye-catching features of the U.K.'s economic recovery has been the strength of job creation. It took seven-to-eight years for employment to return to its pre-recession peaks after the recessions of the early 1980s and 1990s. By contrast, employment rescaled its 2008 peak in mid-2012, and it has risen by a further 6% since.

15 July. 2016 Autos Will Depress Headline June Spending, Core Picture is Fine (Publication Centre)

When the dust settles after today's wave of data, we expect to have learned that core retail sales continued to rise in June, core inflation nudged back up to its cycle high, and manufacturing output rebounded after an auto-led drop in May. None of these reports will be enough to push the Fed into early action, but they will add to the picture of a reasonably solid domestic economy ahead of the U.K. Brexit referendum.

18 Dec. 2015 Sterling Still a Major Constraint on Growth, Despite Its Recent Decline (Publication Centre)

The growing perception that the U.K. MPC will lag further behind the U.S. Fed in this tightening cycle than previously has pushed sterling down to $1.49, a long way below its post-recession peak of $1.72 in mid-2014. But this has done little to enhance the overall competitiveness of U.K. exports, and net trade still looks likely to exert a major drag on real GDP growth in 2016.

17 January 2017 Will Policymakers Act to Stop Sterling Falling Further? (Publication Centre)

Sterling weakened further yesterday as anxiety grew that PM Theresa May will indicate she is seeking a "clean and hard Brexit" in a speech today. This could mean the U.K. leaves the EU's single market and customs union, in order to control immigration, shake off the jurisdiction of the European Court and have a free hand in trade negotiations with other countries.

30 June. 2016 Political Vacuum in the U.K. Prompts the EU to Up the Pressure (Publication Centre)

Leaders of the major Eurozone economies were in no mood to give concessions as they met with outgoing U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron this week for the first time since the referendum. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that she sees "no way back from the Brexit vote." This followed comments that the U.K. couldn't be expected to "cherry-pick" the EU rules that it would like to follow after a new deal.

4 April 2017 The Spanish and U.K. Navies won't Have to Fight over Gibraltar (Publication Centre)

The EU's negotiations with the U.K. over Brexit are off to a bad start. The position in Brussels is that negotiations on a new relationship can't begin before the bill on the U.K.'s existing membership is settled. But this has been met with resistance by Westminster; the U.K. does not recognise the condition of an upfront payment to leave.

3 January 2017 Slowing Real Income Growth Will Define the 2017 U.K. Economy (Publication Centre)

The U.K. economy retained its momentum last year, despite the seismic shock of the vote to leave the EU. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth averaged 0.5% in the first three quarters of 2016, matching 2015's rate and the average pace of growth across the Atlantic.

30 May 2018 Does Italy's Crisis Really Mean Slower U.K. Rate Hikes? (Publication Centre)

Investors have concluded that Italy's political crisis will compel the U.K. MPC to increase interest rates even more gradually than they thought previously.

7 September. 2016 How Will the U.K. Resolve the Immigration,Trade Dilemma? (Publication Centre)

Following the summer recess, the U.K. Government has turned to the unenviable task of weighing up how much economic pain to endure in order to reduce immigration. The Government's insistence that Brexit "must mean controls on the numbers of people who come to Britain from Europe" suggests it is prepared to sacrifice access to the single market in order to appease public opinion.

24 June. Initial Thoughts on the U.K.'s Shock Brexit Vote (Publication Centre)

Britain's shock vote to leave the E.U. has unleashed a wave of economic and political uncertainty that likely will drive the U.K. into recession.

23 Oct. 2015 U.K. Consumer Recovery is Not as Robust as Retail Sales Suggest (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the surge in retail sales volumes in September suggests that the U.K. consumer is in fine fettle and can prevent the economic recovery from losing momentum as exporters struggle and government spending retrenches. But the underlying picture is less encouraging and consumers won't be able to sustain the recent robust growth in real spending when inflation revives next year.

05 May. 2015 Eurozone Q1 GDP beat the U.S. and the U.K., But It Won't Last (Publication Centre)

Advance data indicate that Q1 annualized GDP growth in the U.S. was a trivial 0.2%. And in the U.K., annualized growth is estimated to have slowed to 1.2%, from 2.4% in Q4.

11 December 2017 The EU and the U.K. Have a Deal, Now Comes the Difficult Bit (Publication Centre)

The 16-page document--see here--detailing the agreement allowing the EU and the U.K. to move forward in the Brexit negotiations is predictably tedious.

22 June 2017 Are we headed toward an extension of the U.K.'s EU membership? (Publication Centre)

The EU has had a better start to the Brexit negotiations than its counterpart across the Channel. The risk of disagreement within the EU on the details with of the U.K.'s exit is high, but the Continent has presented a united front so far, mainly because Mr. Macron and Mrs. Merkel agree on the broad objectives. They have no interest in punishing the U.K., but they are also keen to show that exiting the EU has costs for a country which leaves.

21 Dec. 2015 How Vulnerable is the U.K. to a Current Account Crisis? (Publication Centre)

The latest balance of payments figures, released Wednesday, look set to show that the current account deficit widened in Q3, underlying the U.K.'s vulnerability to a sudden change in overseas investor sentiment. The risk of a full-blown sterling crisis, however, is lower than the enormous current account deficit would appear to suggest.

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.K. Pay Growth Flattens Off (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Pay Growth and Unemployment

10 Dec. 2015 Lower Oil Prices are Only Modestly Positive for the U.K. Economy (Publication Centre)

The U.K. is one of the smallest winners among advanced economies from the precipitous decline in oil prices. British oil production still fulfils about 55% of the U.K.'s demand, even though it has declined by two-thirds since its 1999 peak. Oil consumption therefore exceeds production by a much smaller margin in the U.K. than in most other European countries. As a result, the boost to the U.K. economy from the $10 decline in oil prices over the last month isn't much to write home about.

24 August 2017 Second Estimate of Q2 GDP to Show U.K. Missing out on G7 Boom (Publication Centre)

We expect today's second estimate of Q2 GDP to confirm that the U.K. has been the slowest growing G7 economy this year.

U.K. Economic Research

U.K. Economic Monitor, Datanotes and Presentations

U.K. (Publication Centre)

U.K. Document Vault

U.K. Webinars (Publication Centre)

U.K. Webinar Vault

BBC - Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Growth slowdown (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs Discussing the UK Growth Slowdown

*Oct. 2016 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Inflation and Brexit risks will subdue growth.....Policy action won't prevent a slowdown

Business Insider U.K. - These 4 charts will define the British economy at the start of 2018 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Economy in 2018

Business Insider U.K. - The best of 2018 may already be over for the pound (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing sterling in 2018

BLOOMBERG - Brexit vote wreaks havoc on U.K. Economy (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K PMIs

Reuters. - U.K. house prices fall for second month in January (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. house prices

26 Nov. 2015 The Chancellor Leaves the Fiscal Shackles Firmly in Place (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor used the Autumn Statement to shift the composition of the fiscal consolidation slightly away from spending cuts and towards tax hikes. But in overall macroeconomic terms, he changed little. The fiscal stance is still set to be extremely tight in 2016 and 2017, ensuring that the economic recovery will lose more momentum.

26 August. 2016 EZ Economic Bulls Checked by IFO and INSEE Business Surveys (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey in Germany was a nasty downside surprise for markets. The business climate index slipped to 106.2 in August, from 108.3 in July, well below the consensus forecast for a modest rise. In addition, the expectations index slid ominously to 100.1, from a revised 102.1 in July.

25 Apr. 2016 Growth Will Rebound in Q2, But Brexit Fears Will Constrain the Fed (Publication Centre)

We are revising our forecast for Fed action this year, taking out two of the four hikes we had previously expected. We now look for the Fed to hike by 25bp in September and December, so the funds rate ends the year at 0.875%. The Fed's current forecast is also 0.875%, but the fed funds future shows 0.6%.

24 Mar. February Retail Sales to Highlight Weakening Trend in Spending (Publication Centre)

The economic recovery would have lost more momentum last year had consumers not delved so deeply into their pockets. Real household spending increased by 0.7% and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and Q4 respectively, in contrast to investment and exports, which fell in both quarters.

18 May. 2016 Did the FOMC Discuss Brexit Risk at the April Meeting? (Publication Centre)

The April FOMC statement dropped the March assertion that "global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks" to the U.S. economy, even though growth "appears to have slowed". Instead policymakers pointed out that "labor conditions have improved further", perhaps suggesting they don't take the weak-looking March data at face value. We certainly don't.

24 November. 2016 The Fiscal Fetters Remain in Place, Despite the Looming Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor's Autumn Statement dashed hopes that the fiscal consolidation will be paused while the economy struggles to adjust to the implications of Brexit. Admittedly, Mr. Hammond has another opportunity in the Spring Budget to reduce next year's fiscal tightening.

Samuel Tombs

Samuel Tombs has focused on the U.K. economy since 2009. Prior to joining Pantheon, he was Senior U.K. Economist at Capital Economics, leading the team which topped the 2014 Sunday Times' poll of forecasters. In 2011, Samuel won the Society of Business Economists' prestigious Rybczynski Prize for an article on quantitative easing in the UK.

25 Apr. Preliminary GDP Data to Confirm Q1 Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of first quarter GDP likely will confirm that the economic recovery lost considerable pace in early 2016. Bedlam in financial markets in January and business fears over the E.U. referendum are partly responsible for the slowdown. The deceleration, however, also reflects tighter fiscal policy, uncompetitive exports, and the economy running into supply-side constraints.

25 August. 2016 Weak Mortgage Approvals Point to Falling House Prices Ahead (Publication Centre)

July's mortgage approvals data from the BBA brought clear evidence that households have held off making major financial commitments as a result of the Brexit vote. Following a 5% month-to-month fall in June, approvals fell a further 5.3% in July, leaving them at their lowest level since January 2015 and down 19% year-over-year.

31 October. 2016 MPC Likely to Reaffirm Easing Bias, to Markets Surprise (Publication Centre)

The MPC would have to change tack sharply on Thursday in order to live up to the markets' expectation that there is a near-zero chance of another rate cut within the next year.

7 December 2017 Tory Eurosceptics Are Not an Invincible Barrier to a Soft Brexit (Publication Centre)

Brexit talks have hit an impasse over the Irish border. The Republic of Ireland will veto any deal that creates a hard border with Northern Ireland. This means that Northern Ireland must remain in the EU's customs union.

7 Dec. 2015 German Factory Orders are Slowing, Despite October's Jump (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing activity in Germany rebounded at the start of the fourth quarter, following a miserable Q3. New orders jumped 1.8% month-to-month in October, lifted by increases in consumer and capital goods orders, both domestic and export. But the year-over-year rate fell to -1.4%, from a revised -0.7% in September, due to unfavorable base effects, and the three-month trend remained below zero. Our first chart shows that non-Eurozone export orders are the key drag, with export orders to other euro area economies doing significantly better.

8 Apr. 2016 Net Exports Likely Weighed on French GDP Growth Again in Q1 (Publication Centre)

External demand in France probably weakened in the first quarter. The trade deficit widened sharply to €5.2B in February, from a revised €3.9B in January, pushing the current account deficit to an 18-month high. It is tempting to blame the stronger euro, but that wasn't the whole story.

9 January 2018 Now is Not the Time to Turn Upbeat on Productivity Growth (Publication Centre)

Last week's news that output per hour jumped by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q3--the biggest rise since Q2 2011--has fanned hopes that the underlying trend finally is improving.

9 Nov. 2015 Investors Should Brace for a Poor German Q3 GDP Report (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production data capped another dreadful week for German manufacturing. Output fell 1.1% month-to-month in September, pushing the year-over-year rate lower to 0.2%, from a revised 2.9% in August. The 0.6% upward revision of the previous month's data makes the data slightly less awful than the headline, but the details showed weakness across all core sectors. The underlying trend in production is stable at about 1.2% year-over-year, but downbeat new orders suggest it will weaken in the fourth quarter.

6 November 2018 Should the PMIs' Gloomy Prognosis be Trusted This Time? (Publication Centre)

October's Markit/CIPS services survey added to evidence that the economy has started Q4 on a very weak footing.

22 July. 2016 The ECB Tells Investors to go on Holiday and Come Back in Q3 (Publication Centre)

As widely expected, the ECB held fire yesterday. The central bank left its main refi rate unchanged at zero, and also kept the pace of QE unchanged at €80B a month. The deposit and marginal lending facility rates were also left unchanged at -0.4% and 0.25% respectively. The formal end-date of QE is still Q1 2017, but the press release repeated the message that QE can continue "beyond [Q1 2017], if necessary, and in any case until it sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim."

31 August. 2016 German Core Inflation Slipped in August, but Should Rebound Soon (Publication Centre)

The upward trend in German inflation stalled temporarily in August, with an unchanged 0.4% year-over-year reading in August. A dip in core inflation likely offset a continued increase in energy price inflation. The detailed final report next month will give the full story, but state data suggest that the core rate was depressed by a dip in price increases of household appliances, restaurant services, as well as "other goods and services."

31 May. Are House Prices Near a Ceiling, or Just Temporarily Slowing? (Publication Centre)

Housing market activity has weakened sharply over the last two months. Indeed, figures this week likely will reveal that mortgage approvals plunged in April and that house price growth slowed in May. The increase in stamp duty for buy-to-let purchases at the start of April and Brexit risk, however, entirely explain the slowdown.

4 May. The MPC Won't Cut Rates to Alleviate the Manufacturing Slump (Publication Centre)

The nosedive in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI in April provides an early sign that GDP growth is likely to slow even further in the second quarter. The MPC, however, looks set to keep its powder dry. We continue to think that the next move in interest rates will be up, towards the end of this year.

5 Nov. 2015 A Rebound in German New Orders? But the Trend is Subdued (Publication Centre)

Factory orders in Germany probably jumped in September, following a string of losses in the beginning of Q3. We think new orders rose 1.0% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate slightly lower, to 1.8% from 2.0% in August. A rebound in non- Eurozone export orders likely will be the key driver of the monthly gain, following a 14.8% cumulative plunge in the previous two months. The rise will be concentrated in capital and consumer goods, and should be enough to offset a fall in export orders within the euro area. Our forecast is consistent with new orders falling 2.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, partly reversing the 3.0% surge in the second quarter, and raising downside risks for production in Q4.

30 January 2018 Is Sterling's Strong Start to 2018 Warranted? (Publication Centre)

Sterling has begun this year on the front foot, rising last week to its highest level against the U.S. dollar since June 2016.

23 Feb. 2016 Would the MPC Just Let Sterling Drop Like a Stone? (Publication Centre)

Sterling will be under the spotlight again today when four members of the Monetary Policy Committee, including Governor Mark Carney, answer questions from the Treasury Select Committee about the recent Inflation Report.

2 December. 2016 Sterling's Depreciation Has Not Been a Boon for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

The deterioration of the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey in November should temper optimism about the potential benefits of sterling's depreciation. The PMI fell to 53.4 in November, from 54.2 in October.

12 May. 2016 EZ Inflation Expectations are Low, But Will Creep Higher Soon (Publication Centre)

The renewed decline in bond EZ bond yields has raised the question of whether inflation expectations will recover at all in this cycle. We think they will, and we also believe 10-year yields will rise towards 1%-to-1.2% towards the end of the year. But two factors will keep inflation expectations and yields in check in the near term.

13 Jan. 2016 Even Senior Creditors are Not Safe in the Eurozone Banking Industry (Publication Centre)

Investors in Eurozone banks continue to face uncertain times, despite the ECB's best efforts to prop up the economy and financial markets via QE. The latest hit to confidence comes from the bail-in of selected senior debt in Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo. When the troubled lender was restructured in mid-2014, the equity and junior debt were left in a "bad" bank--and were virtually wiped out--while the deposits and senior debt went into the "good" bank Novo Banco. Senior debt holders expecting to recoup their money, however, were startled earlier this month by the decision to "re-assign" five selected bonds with total face value of €2B from Novo Banco to the bad bank, in effect wiping out the investors.

13 July. 2016 German Inflation is Rising, but Will Bund Yields Pay Attention? (Publication Centre)

The final June inflation report from Germany yesterday confirmed that pressures are rising. Inflation rose to 0.3% year-over-year in June, up from 0.1% in May, mainly due to higher energy prices. Household energy prices--utilities--fell 4.9% year-over-year, up from a 5.7% decline in May, while deflation in petrol prices eased to -9.4%, up from -12.1% in May.

20 April 2017 Don't Miss Today's Soaring Eurozone Construction Data (Publication Centre)

Markets tend to ignore Eurozone construction data, but we suspect today's report will be an exception to that rule. Our first chart shows that we're forecasting a 8.5% month-to-month leap in February EZ construction output, and we also expect an upward revision to January's numbers.

20 June. 2016 Will EZ Equity Inflows Rebound Again in this Business Cycle? (Publication Centre)

A year can make a big difference for the equity market. At this point last year, holders of the MSCI EU ex-UK were looking at a meaty gain of 21% year-to-date. The corresponding number this year is a sobering -12%. This is a remarkable shift, given stable GDP growth, close to cyclical highs, and additional easing by the ECB.

11 January 2017 Import Substitution Will Be Modest, Despite Sterling's Depreciation (Publication Centre)

A year has now elapsed since sterling began its precipitous descent, and the trade data still have not improved. Net trade subtracted 0.9 percentage points from year-over-year growth in GDP in Q3. And while the trade deficit of £2.0B in October was the smallest since May, this followed extraordinarily large deficits in the previous two months. In fact, the trade deficit has been on a slightly deteriorating trend over the last year, as our first chart shows, and we expect today's data to show that the deficit re-widened to about £3.5B in November.

11 May. Will March Industrial Production Break the Run of Bad News? (Publication Centre)

The popular belief that economists rarely agree about anything is reinforced by the extremely wide dispersion of forecasts for March industrial production. The forecasts range from the wildly optimistic prediction of a 1.9% month-to-month rise, to a downright miserable 0.3% decline. We think production rose by about 0.5% month-to-month, and this likely will be interpreted as a decent result, following the recent run of bad news.

12 July. 2016 EZ Credit Markets Are Surging, But Equities Can't Keep Up (Publication Centre)

Eurozone capital markets have been split across the main asset classes this year. Equity investors have had a nightmare. The MSCI EU ex-UK index is down 10.6% year-to-date, a remarkably poor performance given additional QE from the ECB and stable GDP growth. Corporate bonds, on the other hand, are sizzling.

13 June. Does the Flattening Yield Curve Signal Recession? (Publication Centre)

The collapse in gilt yields last week--including a drop to a record low at the 10-year maturity--appears to be an ominous sign for the economic outlook. For now, though, the yield curve signals a further easing of GDP growth, rather than a spiral into recession. Low liquidity also means modest changes in demand are generating large movements in yields, undermining gilts' usefulness as a leading indicator.

13 October. 2016 The Chancellor Won't Set Fiscal Policy to Boost Growth Next Year (Publication Centre)

Many commentators have assumed that the new Chancellor's pledge to "reset" fiscal policy and to stop targeting a budget surplus in this parliament means that fiscal policy will support growth in economic activity next year.

16 September 2016 Evidence of a Slowdown in EZ New Car Sales is Mounting (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data on EZ car sales added to the evidence that consumers' spending is slowing. We now reckon sales will rise by 1% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, after gains averaging 2.6% in the first half of the year.

19 September 2016 Construction Investment Will Boost EZ GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Construction data in the Eurozone usually don't attract much attention, but today's July report will provide encouraging news, compared with recent poor manufacturing data. We think construction output leapt 2.1% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 2.3%, from 0.7% in June. This strong start to the third quarter was due mainly to a jump in non-residential building activity in France and Germany.

18 July. 2016 Chile and Peru Hold Interest Rates, Hikes Will Come but not Until 2017 (Publication Centre)

Central banks in Chile and Peru kept their reference rates unchanged last week, as expected, as inflation pressures in both countries are starting to ease. But different economic outlooks are emerging. Chile's economy continues to disappoint, while Peru's is picking up. Indeed, Peru is the only country in the region with clear positive momentum.

18 July. 2016 EZ Car Registrations Continue to Grow Briskly, But Will Slow Soon (Publication Centre)

Growth in new EZ car registrations slowed last month, but the data continue to tell a story of strong consumer demand for new cars. New registrations in the euro area rose 6.9% y/y in June, down from a 16.9% jump in May, mainly due to slowing growth in France. New registrations in the euro area's second largest economy rose a mere 0.8% year-over-year, after a 22% surge in May.

16 Feb. 2016 The ECB Remains on Track to Deliver More Easing in March (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi's introductory statement before yesterday's hearing at the European Parliament repeated that the ECB will "review and possibly reconsider its monetary policy stance in March." But it didn't provide any conclusive smoking gun that further easing is a done deal.

15 September 2016 A Critical 12 Months Ahead for the EU (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's State of the Union address by EC president Jean-Claude Juncker commanded more attention than usual, but contained little news on the key talking points for investors.

13 September 2016 Sterling is Already Stoking Price Pressures, More to Come (Publication Centre)

August's consumer price figures, released today, likely will show that households' spending power is being increasingly eroded by rising inflation. We think CPI inflation picked up to 0.8%, from 0.6% in July, exceeding the consensus, 0.7%, for the third consecutive month.

15 Apr. Nothing in MPC Minutes to Support Rate Cut Speculation (Publication Centre)

The minutes of yesterday's MPC meeting indicate that it is not going to be panicked into cutting interest rates in the run-up to the E.U. referendum in June. The Committee voted unanimously again to keep Bank Rate at 0.5%, and dovish comments were conspicuously absent.

15 Dec. 2015 Solid Industrial Production in the Eurozone Given Global Weakness (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in Eurozone had a decent start to the fourth quarter. Output ex-construction rose 0.6% month-to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.9% from a revised 1.3% in September. Production was lifted by gains in the major economies, and surging output in the Netherlands, Portugal and Lithuania. Across sectors, increases in production of capital and consumer goods were the main drivers, but energy output also helped, due to a cold spell lifting demand and production in France.

10 August. 2016 Trade Data Show Depreciations Take Time to Boost Growth (Publication Centre)

June's trade figures yesterday highlighted that it takes more than just a few months for exchange rate depreciations to boost GDP growth. The trade-weighted sterling index dropped by 9% between November and June as the risk of Brexit loomed large and the prospect of imminent increases in interest rates receded.

09 Feb. 2016 How Robust is the Case for Expecting Lower Rates? (Publication Centre)

Investors currently think that official interest rates are more likely to fall than rise this year. Overnight index swap markets are factoring in a 30% chance of a rate cut by December, but just a 1% chance of an increase by year-end. The case for expecting looser monetary policy, however, remains unconvincing.

22 Feb. 2016 Can Extremely Low Gilt Yields Be Sustained? (Publication Centre)

Gilt yields slid to record lows at many maturities in mid-February, and while equity prices have since rebounded, gilt yields have remained anchored at rock-bottom levels. But with political risks rising and deficit reduction still very slow, gilt yields look primed to spring back soon.

21 November. 2016 Is Germany Exploiting the Rest of the EZ? (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that the EZ current account surplus fell to €25.3B in September, from a revised €29.2B in August. The trade and services surpluses were unchanged, but the income balance slipped after rising in the previous months.

21 September 2016 A Reverse Twist by the BOJ would move EZ bond markets (Publication Centre)

Financial markets in the Eurozone will be pushed around by global events today. The Bank of Japan kicks off the party in the early hours CET, and the spectrum of investors' expectations is wide.

22 August 2017 Tourism is Key to Financial Stability in the Spanish Economy (Publication Centre)

Last week's attacks in Barcelona--one of Spain's most popular tourist spots--struck at the heart of one of the economy's main growth engines.

22 August 2017 Don't Hold Your Breath for Euro-Sterling Parity (Publication Centre)

Sterling's renewed depreciation to just €1.10--just below last year's nadir--has fuelled speculation that it could reach parity against the euro within the next year.

21 June. 2016 All Aboard for a Recovery in German Inflation Pressures (Publication Centre)

Producer prices in Germany rose 0.4% month-to-month in May, stronger than the consensus expectation of a 0.3% gain, and we think further upside surprises are likely in coming months. The headline was boosted by a 0.7% jump in energy prices, but food and manufacturing goods prices also rose.

21 February 2017 Fiscal Policy Won't Be Eased, Even If January's Surplus is Huge (Publication Centre)

January's public finance data, released today, take on particular importance because they are the last to be published before the Chancellor delivers his first Budget on March 8. The public finances nearly always swing into surplus in January, primarily because the deadline for individuals to submit self-assessment--SA--tax returns for the previous fiscal year is at the end of the month. Firms also pay their third of four payments of corporation tax for their profits in the current fiscal year.

04 Feb. 2016 Inflation Report Unlikely to Support the Markets' Dovish Pricing (Publication Centre)

The recent slide in market interest rates suggests investors expect the Monetary Policy Committee--MPC--to strike a dovish note today, when the decision and minutes of this week's meeting are released and the Inflation Report is published, at 12.00 GMT.

20 September 2016 The Recycling of the EZ's Current Account Surplus Continues (Publication Centre)

The external surplus in the EZ economy slipped in July. The seasonally-adjusted current account surplus dropped to €21.0B, from a revised €29.5B in June, hit by an increase in the current transfers deficit, and a falling trade surplus. The recent increase in the transfers deficit partly is due to the migrant deal with Turkey, and we expect it to remain elevated.

02 Feb. 2016 Is the Recovery in Business Investment About to Fizzle Out? (Publication Centre)

Business investment has been resilient to the slowdown in the wider economy so far, with year-over-year growth in the first three quarters of 2015 averaging a very respectable 6.2%. Outside the oil sector, firms are generating healthy profits and can borrow cheaply.

23 August 2018 Why Have U.K. Equities not Kept up with the Record-Breaking U.S. Rally? (Publication Centre)

The S&P 500 index chalked up a new record on Wednesday by going 3,453 days without a 20% drawdown, making it the longest equity bull-run in U.S. history.

24 September 2018 Battle Lines are Drawn Between the EU and U.K. over Brexit (Publication Centre)

EU negotiations tend to go down to the wire; and last week's summit in Salzburg, and Theresa May's statement on Friday, suggest that the Brexit negotiations will do just that.

24 August. 2015 U.S and U.K. Demand, Not China, Drives the Eurozone Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

The sell-off in risky assets intensified while we were away, driven by China's decision to loosen its grip on the currency, and looming rate hikes in the U.S. The Chinese move partly shows, we think, the PBoC is uncomfortable pegging to a strengthening dollar amid the unwinding investment boom and weakness in manufacturing.

19 Feb. 2016 Even Spendthrift U.K. Consumers Will Have to Slow Down in 2016 (Publication Centre)

January's retail sales figures, released today, look set to indicate that consumers are keeping the recovery going, amid deteriorating business sentiment and faltering external trade.

10 Feb. 2015 German exports are strong, but too dependent on the U.S. and the U.K. (Publication Centre)

External demand for the Eurozone's largest economy is going from strength to strength. Seasonally adjusted German exports rose 3.4% month-to-month in December, equivalent to a solid 7.5% increase year-over-year.The revised indices show that the annualised surplus rose to an all-time high of €218B, or 7% of GDP, last year, indicating that the level of external savings remains a solid support for the economy.

*Nov. 2015 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Recovery shifting to a lower gear...but price pressures will force rate hikes next year

U.K. Webinar - H2, 2018 (Publication Centre)

The MPC won't be passive next year...Brexit permitting

12 June 2017 Germany's Trade Surplus is Vulnerable to U.K. Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

Germany continues to draw fire for its ballooning trade surplus, but momentum in net exports is easing. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus dipped marginally to a three-month low of €19.7B in April, from €19.8B in March, as stronger imports offset a modest rise in exports. The German trade surplus averaged €19.9B in the first four months of 2017, about 10% lower than the cyclical peak, in the middle of 2016.

13 March 2017 A Slowdown in the U.K. Will Dent the German Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Germany's external surplus remained resilient at the start of the year. Data on Friday showed that the seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose marginally to €18.5B in January, from a revised €18.3B in December.

17 January 2017 Will Brexit and Mr. Trump Dent EZ Exports to the U.S. and the U.K? (Publication Centre)

Net exports in the euro area likely rebounded in Q4. The headline EZ trade surplus rose to €22.7B in November from €19.7B in October. Exports jumped 3.3% month-to-month, primarily as a result of strong data in Germany and France, offsetting a 1.8% rise in imports. Over Q4 as a whole, we are confident that net exports gave a slight boost to eurozone GDP growth, adding 0.1 percentage points to quarter-on-quarter growth.

9 May 2018 Is Down Now the Only Way for U.K. House Prices? (Publication Centre)

Britain's housing market appears to be going from bad to worse.

19 Jan. 2016 RPI Inflation Will Strengthen More Rapidly Than Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

RPI inflation has declined in importance as a measure of U.K. inflation and was stripped of its status as a National Statistic in 2013. Yet it is still used to negotiate most wage settlements, calculate interest payments on index-linked gilts, and revalue excise duties. We have set out our above-consensus view on CPI inflation several times, including in yesterday's Monitor. But the potential for the gap between RPI and CPI inflation to widen over the coming years also threatens the markets' view that the former will remain subdued indefinitely.

19 Oct. 2015 Slowdown in Store as Fiscal Policy Tightens and Strong Pound Bites (Publication Centre)

A powerful cocktail of cheap money, labour and commodities, allowed to infuse by a hiatus in the government's austerity programme, has reinvigorated the U.K. economy over the last three years. But these supports are now weakening while new headwinds are emerging. The U.K. economy is heading for a pronounced slowdown, one that is under-appreciated by most forecasters and under-priced by markets.

19 September 2018 How Would the MPC Respond to a No-deal Brexit? (Publication Centre)

A no-deal Brexit is a remote possibility. The U.K. government and EU are closing in on a deal and Brexiteers within the Conservative party have failed, so far, to trigger a confidence vote on Mrs. May's leadership.

20 June. A Final Look at Post-Referendum Paths for Sterling (Publication Centre)

One way or the other, the post-referendum lurch in sterling will make its recent gyrations pale by comparison. If the U.K. votes to remain in the E.U.--as we continue to expect--then sterling likely will jump up to about $1.48 immediately afterwards. As our first chart shows, the gap between sterling and the level implied by the current difference between overnight index swap rates in the U.S. and Britain is currently about $0.05.

18 January 2017 The Government's Brexit Bravado Won't Survive the Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister set out her blueprint for Brexit yesterday, asserting that the U.K. will leave the single market and potentially even the E.U.'s customs union in order to control immigration and regain lost sovereignty. She argued that "no deal is better than a bad deal", suggesting that the U.K. might even fall back on its membership of the World Trade Organisation as the basis for trading with the E.U., if her demands were not met.

17 Nov. 2015 Does the Underperformance of the FTSE Portend a Weaker Economy? (Publication Centre)

The FTSE 100 has fallen by 4% over the last two weeks, exceeding the 1-to-3% declines in the main US, European and Japanese markets. The FTSE's latest drop builds on an underperformance which began in early 2014. The index has fallen by 10% since then--compared to rises of between 10% and 20% in the main overseas benchmarks--and has dropped by nearly 15% since its April 2015 peak. We doubt, however, that the collapse in U.K. equity prices signals impending economic misery. The economy is likely to struggle next year, but this will have little to do with the stock market's travails.

16 Nov. 2015 Ignore the Hysteria if Inflation Eased Further in October (Publication Centre)

October's consumer price figures, to be released tomorrow, look set to show CPI inflation easing to -0.2%, from -0.1%, below the no-change consensus and the lowest rate since March 1960. No doubt this will spark more hyperbolic headlines about the U.K.'s descent into pernicious deflation; ignore them. October's print will almost certainly represent the nadir and we think it will take only a year for CPI inflation to return to the MPC's 2% target.

17 August 2018 Pessimism Towards Retailers Looks Warranted, Despite July's Sales Rise (Publication Centre)

Equity prices for U.K. retailers have performed woefully since the E.U. referendum. The FTSE All-Share Index for general retailers has underperformed the overall All-Share Index by nearly 30% since the Brexit vote.

17 May. Wage Growth to Continue to Rise, Despite Jobs Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The 21K rise in the headline, three-month average, unemployment rate between November and February confirmed last month that the U.K.'s period of fantastically strong growth in employment has ended. Timelier indicators, however, suggest unemployment is stabilising, not on the cusp of a major increase.

20 Nov. 2015 EZ Current Account Surplus Goes from Strength to Strength (Publication Centre)

The current account surplus in the Eurozone is well on its way to stabilising above 3% of GDP this year. The seasonally adjusted surplus rose to €29.4B in September from a revised €18.7B in August, lifted by a higher trade surplus, thanks to rebounding German exports. The services balance was unchanged at €4.5B in September, while the primary income balance edged higher to €4.8B from €4.0B. The improving external balance has been driven mostly by a surging trade surplus with the U.S. and the U.K., as our first chart shows.

21 Oct. 2015 Recovery Won't Shrug Off The Fiscal Squeeze (Publication Centre)

The conventional wisdom that the U.K. economy will comfortably weather the coming fiscal squeeze is misplaced. The planned adjustment is large, designed to minimise its political, not economic, impact, and based on overly optimistic assumptions. What's more, the economy is in many respects less well-placed to cope with the tightening than when the previous government applied the fiscal brakes. And when the recovery slows, the Chancellor is less likely to change tack and ease the squeeze this time.

24 June. 2016 Brexit Implications for the U.S: No Immediate Fed Easing (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s unexpected vote for Brexit means a stronger dollar for the foreseeable future, a sharp though likely containable drop in U.S. stock prices, and a further delay before the Fed next raises rates. The vote does not necessarily mean the U.K. actually will leave the EU, because the policy choices now facing leaders of Union have changed dramatically. An offer of substantial concessions on the migration issue--the single biggest driver of the Leave vote-- might be enough to trigger a second referendum, but this is a consideration for another day.

24 June. 2016 Markets Wild After Brexit Vote, LatAm Currencies Under Pressure (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s unexpected vote for Brexit means a stronger USD for the foreseeable future, pressure on EM currencies and increasing risk premiums. LatAm fundamentals will a sideshow for some time. The focus will be on the currencies, which will be the main shock absorbers.

24 Nov. 2015 Will Gilts Decouple as US Treasury Yields Rise? (Publication Centre)

A less rapid tightening of monetary policy in the U.K. than in the U.S. should ensure that gilt yields don't move in lockstep with U.S. Treasury yields over the coming years. But the outlook for monetary policy isn't the only influence on gilt yields. We expect low levels of market liquidity in the secondary market, high levels of gilt issuance and overseas concerns about the possibility of the U.K.'s exit from the E.U. to add to the upward pressure on gilt yields.

24 August 2018 What Probability are Markets Attaching to a No-Deal Brexit? (Publication Centre)

Speculation that the U.K. will end up leaving the E.U. in March without a deal has dominated the headlines over the last month. Politicians on both sides of the Channel have warned that the probability of a no-deal Brexit is at least as high as 50%, even though more than 80% of the withdrawal deal already has been agreed.

23 October 2018 Will Yields on Gilts Close the Gap with Treasuries? (Publication Centre)

The gap between U.K. and U.S. government bond yields has continued to grow this year and is approaching a record.

22 Oct. 2015 Will Simply Holding The E.U. Referendum Harm The Economy? (Publication Centre)

Discussion about whether the U.K. would be better off voting to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum is rarely out of the press, raising the question of whether simply holding the national vote could damage the economy even if the U.K. votes for the status quo in the end.

23 February 2018 Even Q4's Modest GDP Growth Relied on Unsustainable Supports (Publication Centre)

U.K. activity data have consistently surprised to the downside over the last month.

23 January 2017 Threats to Make Britain a Corporate Tax Haven Lack Credibility (Publication Centre)

Both the Prime Minister and Chancellor last week threatened to cut business taxes aggressively to persuade multinationals to remain in Britain in the event of hard Brexit. But these threats lack credibility, given the likely lingering weakness of the public finances by the time of the U.K.'s departure from the EU and the scale of demographic pressures set to weigh on public spending over the next decade.

15 June. Reasons to Remain Calm About Brexit Risk (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, six of the eight opinion polls conducted over the seven days indicate that the U.K. will vote for Brexit on June 23. Our daily updated Chart of the Week, on page 3, shows the current state of play.

14 Dec. 2015 November Data Will Mark the First Step in Inflation's Long March Up (Publication Centre)

November's consumer prices figures, released tomorrow, look set to show that the U.K.'s spell of negative inflation has ended. CPI inflation is set to pick-up decisively over the coming months, even if oil prices continue to drift down. In fact, fuel prices likely will contribute to the pick-up in inflation from October's -0.1% rate. November's 1.5% fall in prices at the pump was smaller than the 2.3% drop in the same month last year, so the year-over-year rate will rise. Fuel's contribution to CPI inflation therefore will pick up, albeit very marginally, to -0.47pp from -0.50pp in October.

1 June. How to Read the Tea Leaves Before and On Referendum Night (Publication Centre)

Sterling's fall yesterday to $1.45 from $1.46 after the release of online and phone opinion polls from ICM both showing a three percentage point lead for "Leave" over "Remain" underlines that it not a formality that the U.K. will be a full member of the E.U. this time next month.

1 March 2018 Eurozone inflation has bottomed for the year (Publication Centre)

House purchase mortgage approvals by the main street banks jumped to 40.1K in January, from 36.1K in December, fully reversing the 4K fall of the previous two months, according to trade body U.K. Finance.

1 March 2018 The PM's Inevitable Capitulation is Still a Way Off ,Clouding Sterling's Outlook (Publication Centre)

Sterling fell to $1.38, from $1.39, in the hour following the EU's publication of a draft Article 50 withdrawal treaty, which set out the practical consequences of the principles the U.K. agreed to in December.

08 Mar. 2016 Is the Economy Better Placed to Withstand the Fiscal Squeeze? (Publication Centre)

The consensus view that the recovery won't lose more momentum this year seems to assume that the U.K. economy is better placed to deal with the intensification of the fiscal squeeze than earlier this decade. We do not share this optimism.

08 Jan. 2016 Sterling, Not EM Weakness, Will Hold Exports Back (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor argued in a speech on Thursday that the U.K.'s economic recovery is threatened by a "dangerous cocktail" of overseas risks, including slowing growth in the BRICs--Brazil, Russia, India, and China--and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Exports are set to struggle this year, but the strong pound, not weakness in emerging markets, will be the main drag.

BBC - Retail sales in first annual fall since 2013 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales

9 March 2017 The Chancellor Sticks to Plans for an Intense Fiscal Tightening (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor lived up to his reputation for fiscal conservatism yesterday and is pressing ahead with a tough fiscal tightening. He hopes that this will create scope to loosen policy if the economy struggles after the U.K. leaves the EU in 2019, but we remain concerned his "fiscal headroom" will be much smaller than he currently anticipates.

1 October 2018 The Current Account Deficit Remains Sterling's Achilles' Heel (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s still-large current account deficit makes us nervous that sterling will need to depreciate further over the medium-term and would collapse if Brexit talks fail, causing international investors to take flight.

10 November. 2016 A Trump Victory Means Revisions to EU Leaders' Playbooks (Publication Centre)

EZ equity futures predictably fell out of bed as the news of the Trump victory gradually became clear overnight yesterday. The reaction was less violent than after the U.K. Brexit referendum, though, and Mr. Trump's balanced victory speech appears to have calmed nerves for now.

13 February 2017 Too Soon to Conclude the Economy is Finally Rebalancing (Publication Centre)

Data on industrial production and trade released last week have fanned hopes that the U.K.'s growth model is moving away from its excessive reliance on household spending, and towards production and exports. But a close look at the underlying drivers of the strong headline figures suggests that it is too soon to hope that the economy is undergoing a major rebalancing.

13 February 2018 Is a Second Referendum May's Only Way to Break the Impasse? (Publication Centre)

Suggestions that the U.K. government might choose to hold a second referendum have been constantly rebuffed by the Prime Minister.

13 March 2018 Has the Brexit Risk Premium Disappeared? (Publication Centre)

Evidence that U.K. asset prices still are depressed by Brexit risk has become harder to find.

12 June 2017 The Hung Parliament has Hidden Positives for the Economy (Publication Centre)

Britain's general election has led to another major step-up in political uncertainty, which conventional wisdom assumes will harm the economy. Perhaps surprisingly, however, the government's enfeebled state brings with it some major positives for the U.K.'s economic outlook.

11 June 2018 Production and Labour Market Data will Hit Rate Hike Odds (Publication Centre)

The resolution of tensions in Italy and aboveconsensus U.K. PMIs for May last week persuaded investors that the MPC likely will press on and raise interest rates soon.

10 November. 2016 Market Reaction to Trump Shows Britain is No Longer a Safe-haven (Publication Centre)

Donald Trump's victory casts a shadow of political uncertainty over what had appeared to be a decent outlook for the U.S economy. The U.K.'s trade and financial ties with the U.S., however, are small enough to mean that any downturn on the other side of the Atlantic will have little impact on Britain.

10 October. 2016 The Sterling Crisis has Tied Policymakers' Hands (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s dependence on large inflows of external finance was laid alarmingly b are last week, when "hard" Brexit talk by politicians caused overseas investors to give sterling assets a wide berth. Investors now are demanding extra compensation for holding U.K. assets, because the medium-term outlook is so uncertain.

11 Apr. Slowly but Surely, Inflation is Creeping Back Towards its Target (Publication Centre)

Consumer price figures for March, released on Tuesday, likely will show that CPI inflation has taken another step up, probably to 0.4% from 0.3% in February. This should jettison lingering fears that the U.K. is mired in deflation and bolster the Monetary Policy Committee's conviction that inflation will hit the 2% target within the next two years.

24 November 2017 GDP Growth Remains too Reliant on Households Saving Less (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second estimate of Q3 GDP confirmed that the U.K. economy has underperformed this year.

15 Feb. 2016 Stronger CPI Figures to Dispel Fears of Ingrained Deflation (Publication Centre)

January's consumer price data, released tomorrow, look set to reveal a third consecutive rise in CPI inflation, dampening speculation that the U.K. is stuck in a deflationary funk. Indeed, we think CPI inflation picked up to 0.4%, from 0.2% in December, above the consensus, 0.3%.

4 December 2017 Britain Will be Forever Stuck in the Brexit Departure Lounge (Publication Centre)

Sterling strengthened last week to its highest tradeweighted level since mid-May, amid hopes that the U.K. government will concede more ground to ensure that the European Council deems, at its December 14 meeting, that "sufficient progress" has been made in Brexit talks for trade discussions to begin

4 July. 2016 A Look into the Abyss - Will the EZ and the EU Disintegrate? (Publication Centre)

For some economists and political analysts the surprising result of the U.K.'s EU referendum symbolises one of the biggest threats to the structure of the post-war social-liberal market economy. To this school of thought, the vote proved that the discontent of a pressured and disenfranchised working/middle class is rising, threatening to topple economies and political institutions.

4 June 2018 The Economy Should be Less Lethargic in 2019 (Publication Centre)

We're relatively optimistic--yes, you read that correctly--on the outlook for the U.K. economy in 2019.

4 April 2017 Sterling's Depreciation is a Mixed Blessing for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

The latest Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey has dashed hopes that sterling's depreciation and the pickup in global trade will facilitate strong growth in U.K. production this year. The PMI dropped to 54.2 in March, from 54.6 in February.

4 Apr. Britain is Living Beyond its Means, Once Again (Publication Centre)

The clear message from the fourth quarter's national accounts, released last week, is that the economic recovery rests on unsustainable foundations. The U.K. has returned to bad habits and is financing expenditure today by borrowing. As this undermines future spending, it is only a matter of time before the U.K.'s recovery loses steam.

30 August. 2016 Reports of the Economy's Resilience are Greatly Exaggerated (Publication Centre)

Over the sleepy August holidays, a view has gained traction in the media that the U.K. economy is showing little damage from the Brexit vote. Optimists argue that the size and composition of the 0.6% quarter-on-quarter rise in Q2 GDP, the 1.4% month-to-month jump in retail sales volumes in July, and the slight dip in the unemployment claimant count demonstrate that the recovery is in good shape.

31 August. 2016 Cheaper Borrowing Costs Won't Reignite Firms' Investment Appetite (Publication Centre)

July's money and credit figures provided more evidence that firms have become reluctant to invest following the Brexit vote. Lending by U.K. banks to private non-financial companies--PNFCs--rose by just 0.2% month-to-month in July, below the average 0.5% increase of the previous six months.

31 January 2017 Will the MPC Need to Raise Rates to Cool Consumer Credit Growth? (Publication Centre)

December's money data likely will bring further signs that the U.K. economy's growth spurt late last year was paid for with unsecured borrowing. Retail sales fell by 1.9% month-to-month in December, so we doubt that unsecured borrowing will match November's £1.7B increase, which was the biggest since March 2005.

5 April 2017 The Construction Sector Will Continue to Tread Water (Publication Centre)

Evidence that the U.K. economy has slowed significantly this year is starting to come in thick and fast. Following the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI on Monday --which signalled that growth in production declined in March to its lowest rate since July--the construction PMI dropped to 52.2 in March, from 52.5 in February.

5 June 2018 A Customs Union U-turn is Coming, but not Until the Autumn (Publication Centre)

In theory, June should be a crunch month for Theresa May's Brexit plans. The Prime Minister will meet EU leaders on June 28 and hopes to have found a consensus in cabinet by then for how the U.K. will trade with the EU outside of the customs union.

6 May. The MPC Won't Step in to Revive the Economy this Time (Publication Centre)

The latest U.K. PMIs were unambiguously dreadful. The manufacturing, construction and services PMIs all fell in April, and their weighted average points to quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP slowing to zero in Q2, from 0.4% in Q1. The U .K.'s composite PMI also undershot the Eurozone's for the second month this year.

7 February 2018 The Economic Fallout from the Plunge in Equities will be Modest (Publication Centre)

As things stand, we see little reason to revise down our forecasts for the U.K. economy in response to the tailspin in equity markets

7 June. 2016 Are Eurozone Equity Markets Complacent About Brexit? (Publication Centre)

Recent polls in the U.K. have reminded markets that the vote is too close to call at this point, but investors in the Eurozone appear unfazed, so far. The headline Sentix index rose to 9.9 in June, from 6.2 in May, lifted by the expectations index, which increased to a six-month high of 10.0 from 5.5 in May.

25 Feb. 2016 Is Brexit as Likely as the Markets Seem to Think? (Publication Centre)

Sterling weakened further yesterday in response to the perception that the odds of the U.K. leaving the E.U. in the June referendum are rising. Cable fell to $1.39, its lowest level since March 2009. It is now $0.12 below the level one would anticipate from markets' expectations for short rates, as our chart of the week on page three shows.

6 March 2017 Can Gilt Yields Remain Low While the World Reflates? (Publication Centre)

If 2017 really is the year of "reflation", somebody forgot to tell the gilt market. Among the G7 group, 10-year yields have fallen only in the U.K. during the last three months, as our first chart shows.

6 February 2017 Growth Indicators Start to Turn Down as Price Pressures Escalate (Publication Centre)

The run of above-consensus news on the U.K. economy came to an abrupt end last week, as a series of survey indicators for January took a turn for the worse. After six months of breathing space, the economic consequences of the Brexit vote are increasingly being felt.

6 July 2018 How will the E.U. Respond to the Prime Minister's Latest Brexit Plan? (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s dysfunctional cabinet will meet at the Prime Minister's country retreat today to agree--finally--on a set of proposals for how Britain will trade outside of the E .U.'s customs union and single market.

6 June. Political Instability to Loom Large, if Referendum is Close Either Way (Publication Centre)

Would the U.K. inevitably leave the E.U. if a majority of the electorate voted for Brexit on June 23? Repeatedly, the Government has quelled speculation that it will call for a second referendum on an improved package of E.U. reforms after a Brexit vote on June 23. But unsuccessful referendums have been followed up with second plebiscites elsewhere in Europe.

30 August 2017 The Eurozone's Cyclical Recovery is Stable, Not Accelerating (Publication Centre)

While we were enjoying a rare sunny bank holiday in the U.K., data showed that Eurozone money supply growth slowed at the start of Q3. Broad money growth--M3--fell to a 10-month low of 4.5% year-over- year in July, from 5.0% in August.

4 October 2017 The Current Account Deficit Still Poses Downside Risks for Sterling (Publication Centre)

Sterling's depreciation has done little to remedy the U.K.'s dependence on external finance.

26 September 2017 Is the Most Important Data--Wage Growth--Forecastable? (Publication Centre)

Markets will be hyper-sensitive to U.K. data releases following the MPC's warning that it is on the verge of raising interest rates.

27 February 2018 The Trend in Mortgage Lending is Downward, Despite January's Jump (Publication Centre)

House purchase mortgage approvals by the main street banks jumped to 40.1K in January, from 36.1K in December, fully reversing the 4K fall of the previous two months, according to trade body U.K. Finance.

27 March 2018 The Housing Market Remains Fragile, Limiting the MPC's Options (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's figures from trade body U.K. Finance showed that January's pick-up in mortgage approvals was just a blip.

26 Oct. 2015 MPC Can't Wait too Long After the U.S. Fed Raises Rates (Publication Centre)

Markets currently judge that U.K. interest rates will rise about six months after the first Fed hike. But the Bank of England seldom lagged this far behind in the past. Admittedly, the slowdown in the domestic economy that we expect will require the Monetary Policy Committee to be cautious. But wage and exchange rate pressures are likely to mean six months is the maximum period the MPC can wait before following the Fed's lead.

25 July. 2016 Should We Believe the Downbeat PMI? (Publication Centre)

Last week's news that the composite PMI collapsed to 47.7 in July--its lowest level since April 2009--from 52.4 in June is the first clear indication that the U.K. is heading for a recession.

26 January 2018 The Slump in Mortgage Lending has Further to Run (Publication Centre)

Mortgage approvals by the main high street banks collapsed to 36.1K in December--the lowest level since April 2013--from 39.0K in November, according to trade body U.K. Finance.

26 Jan. 2016 The Collapse in Oil Prices Won't Reinvigorate the Economy in 2016 (Publication Centre)

The response of U.K. producers and consumers to lower oil prices could not have been more different to those on the other side of the Atlantic. Counter-intuitively, U.K. oil production has grown strongly over the last year, while investment hasn't collapsed to the same extent as in the U.S., yet. Meanwhile, U.K. households have thrown caution to the wind and already have spent the windfall from the previous drop in oil prices, unlike their more prudent--so far--U.S. counterparts. With the costs still to come but most of the benefits already enjoyed, lower oil prices will be neutral for 2016 U.K. GDP growth, at best.

25 October 2018 Winter is Coming for the British Housing Market (Publication Centre)

Mortgage approvals by the main high street banks dropped to a five-month low of 38.5K in September, from 39.2K in August, according to trade body U.K.Finance.

27 September 2017 Winter is Coming for the Mortgage Market (Publication Centre)

Figures yesterday from U.K. Finance--the new trade body that has subsumed the British Bankers' Association--showed that the mortgage market recovered over the summer.

27 January 2017 GDP Growth Will Slow This Year as Consumers Retrench (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of GDP showed that the economy finished 2016 on a strong note. Output increased by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, the same rate as in the previous two quarters. The year-over-year growth rate of GDP in 2016 as a whole--2.0%--was low by pre-crisis standards, but it likely puts the U.K. at the top of the G7 growth leaderboard. We cannot tell how well the economy would have performed had the U.K. not voted to leave the EU in June, but clearly the threat of Brexit has not loomed large over the economy.

3 August 2018 Does the BoJ Believe in Targeting 2% Inflation Anymore? (Publication Centre)

Why should Japan, the U.S., the Euro Area, the U.K. and Japan all have the same inflation target?

3 July 2018 It's Too Soon to Relax About the Current Account Deficit (Publication Centre)

Last week's balance of payments showed that the U.K. has made significant progress in reducing its reliance on overseas finance.

3 May 2017 April's Higher Manufacturing PMI Won't Be Sustained (Publication Centre)

The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI shot up to a three-year high of 57.3 in April, from 54.2 in March, bringing an end to the run of downbeat news on the economy. The performance of the U.K. manufacturing sector, however, remains underwhelming, given the magnitude of sterling's depreciation.

3 October 2017 Robust Overseas Demand Isn't Persuading Manufacturers to Invest (Publication Centre)

U.K. manufacturers are benefiting from rapid growth in the Eurozone, but increasingly they are being held back by weak domestic demand.

28 July 2017 The Downturn in Housing Market Activity has Further to Run (Publication Centre)

Equity prices for companies dependent on the U.K.'s residential property market tumbled yesterday as several companies reported poor results for the first half of 2017. Most companies blamed a decline in housing transactions for falling profits.

29 March 2017 Triggering Article 50 Won't End the "Phoney War" Immediately (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister will invoke Article 50 today, marking the end of the beginning of the U.K.'s departure from the EU. The move likely will not move markets, as it has been all but certain since MPs backed the Government's European Union Bill on February 1.

27 September 2018 Mortgage Lending will Keep Trending Down as Brexit Nears (Publication Centre)

August's mortgage lending data from the trade body U.K. Finance provided more evidence that the pick-up in housing market activity in Q2 simply reflected a shift from Q1 due to the disruptive weather, rather than the emergence of a sustainable upward trend.

28 February 2017 Should the ESI's Upbeat Growth Signal be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

The E.C.'s Economic Sentiment Indicator for the U.K., released yesterday, painted an upbeat picture of the economy's recent performance. The ESI picked up to 109.4 in February from 107.1 in January; its average level since 1990 is 100. February's reading was the highest since December 2015, and it slightly exceeded the E.U.'s average of 108.9.

28 Apr. Don't Pin Your Hopes on a Post-Referendum Rebound (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 reflects more than just Brexit risk. The intensifying fiscal squeeze, the uncompetitiveness of U.K. exports, and the lack of spare labour suggest that the U.K.'s recovery now is stuck in a lower gear.

U.K. Key Issues (Publication Centre)

City AM - Rising confidence from consumers and businesses point to faster growth in second quarter (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. Consumer Confidence

BUSINESS INSIDER UK - BRITAIN BEATS -- GDP figures shrug off Brexit and smash expectations (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Q3 Preliminary GDP data

CNBC - Fed hike hint surprises economist (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Ian Shepherdson on Brexit risk to a June rate hike

Financial Times - 'Shackles are still on': analysts respond to UK economic growth data (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. growth data

Business Insider - We just got another sign that Brexit is ending the consumer boom (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales

Express - Price growth set to slow for June - but analysts predict further inflation this year (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Consumer Price Index, June

CNBC - When will the BoE raise Interest Rates? (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation and the BoE

Business Insider - London's house prices are growing at their slowest rate since 2012 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Nationwide's June House Price Index

BUSINESS INSIDER - Brits are hoarding cash post-Brexit -- and it's a 'worrying signal' for the economy (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Money Supply

BBC NEWS - Warm weather lifts retail sales in July (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in July

BUSINESS INSIDER - Britain's government could make the pound's crash even worse (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the government's fiscal policy

BLOOMBERG - ECB "Will have more easing" (Media Centre)

Founder and chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the U.S. economy and U.K. Inflation

Financial Times - Analysts warn rise in UK retail sales may be a 'blip' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs ok U.K. Retail Sales

Business Insider - The Tories might not get the crushing victory they expect in this election (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing the General Election in June

Business Insider - The pound's general election jump faces a 'swift reversal' as reality takes hold (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing the effect the general election will have on the pound,

Business Insider - The only analyst who called the June 8 election correctly now says there is 'clear evidence that the Brexit vote has been bad for the economy' (Media Centre)

A look back on Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Toombs' predictions ahead of the U.K. General Election

BUSINESS INSIDER - The idea that Brexit isn't totally screwing the economy is 'baloney' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the impact of the Referendum

Business Insider - There's a coming storm set to 'batter' the UK economy -- and it has nothing to do with Brexit (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs the recent increase in Oil

GUARDIAN - UK manufacturers suffer further drop in orders, CBI survey shows (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. manufacturing

GUARDIAN - UK inflation steady at 2.4% in October after food price war (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

Guardian - UK house prices fell in January for the first time in five months (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

GUARDIAN - UK house prices edge up 0.2% in April (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

GUARDIAN - UK house price growth up in final set of figures before vote to leave EU (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

GUARDIAN - UK service companies anxious about year ahead (Media Centre)

Chief U.K.. economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. PMI

Guardian - Weak UK growth and tax revenues put the squeeze on Hammond (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on UK Government Borrowing

BBC NEWS - UK new car sales rise in September (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. New Car Sales

Independent - UK economy growth could slip due to North Sea pipeline shutdown, warn experts (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. economy growth

INDEPENDENT - The chart that shows the UK economic recovery is "on its knees" (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. PMI data, April

Guardian - UK GDP growth slower than expected as inflation bites (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing Q1 GDP Results

Guardian - UK factory output grows at fastest rate since mid-1990s (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey

FINANCIAL TIMES - Jobs data give Bank of England leverage to keep rates low (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. employment

Financial Times - Inflation dip raises doubts over May interest rate rise (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. Inflation

Financial Times - Halifax data strengthen evidence of uptick in UK house prices (Media Centre)

Chief U.K Economist Samuel Tombs on UK Halifax House Prices in July

Financial Times - Confidence in UK house prices wobbles despite October rise (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. House Prices

FINANCIAL TIMES - UK house price falls - how much is down to Brexit? (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

FINANCIAL TIMES - UK housing market stabilises after Brexit vote (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Mortgage Approvals

Guardian - UK consumers face sharpest price rise in services for nearly a decade (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Price Increases

Guardian - Record rise in import costs dents growth in UK manufacturing (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

GUARDIAN - Brexit uncertainty hits plans to cut budget deficit (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Public Finances

FINANCIAL TIMES - British shoppers delay spending ahead of Black Friday (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. CBI survey, November

THE GUARDIAN - UK manufacturing growth slows in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

TELEGRAPH - House prices soar, fuelled by sky-high rises in London flats - but uncertainty lies ahead (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

Telegraph - Tax hikes add to inflation pressure (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

TELEGRAPH - UK house prices slip as market feels a chill (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

TELEGRAPH - Why Britain's shopping spree will come at a cost (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. employment

Telegraph - House price growth jumps to highest since March despite weaker market post-Brexit vote (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Halifax House Price Index in December

TELEGRAPH - Building sector slows down and could even fall into recession (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Construction

SKY NEWS - Weakening tax receipts hurt public finances in September (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Public Finances

Sunday Times - Pound's fall 'the worst devaluation in history' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing the devaluation of the GBP

TELEGRAPH - 'Robust' house price growth fuelled by buy-to-let and low supply (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Nationwide House Prices

THE GUARDIAN - British service sector back in growth, according to latest data (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Services sector

THE TELEGRAPH - Britain remains stuck in deflation (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. inflation

THE TELEGRAPH - UK construction declines for third straight month (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. construction

Wall Street Journal - Britain's New Housing Dilemma (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs discussing the U.K. Monetary Policy

WSJ - Britain's Pound Depreciation Isn't Working (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the Depreciation of the Pound

THE TELEGRAPH - Boost for George Osborne as UK borrowing drops in December (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. economist Samuel Tombs comments on today's retail data release

Independent - UK house price growth drops to five-year low as London remains worst-performing region (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

The Guardian - Fears of no-deal Brexit push British export orders close to year low (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

THE GUARDIAN - Shock UK deficit figures dent George Osborne's economic plan (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K Deficit

THE GUARDIAN - UK manufacturing expects hard winter ahead (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

REUTERS - UK manufacturing outlook darkens, retail sales slip (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. Manufacturing

REUTERS - UK inflation was zero in 2015 despite December lift (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

BBC - UK industrial production shrank in 2015 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Industrial Production

BBC - UK government borrowing narrows after EU credit (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Government Borrowing

BBC - UK government borrowing lowest for 11 years (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Government Borrowing

BBC - UK goods trade gap biggest on record (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs Discussing the UK Goods Trade

BBC - UK manufacturing output at its highest for 10 years (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing Output

BBC - UK retail sales hit by mild autumn (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in October

BBC NEWS - Government borrowing falls in first half of year (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Government borrowing

BBC - Wage growth hit by higher inflation (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest U.K. Labour Market Data

BBC - UK third quarter GDP confirmed at 0.5% (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on UK Q3 GDP

BBC - UK economy grows at fastest rate since late 2016 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP in Q3

BBC - UK economic growth slows to 0.4% in first quarter (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

Independent - UK pay growth data disappoints again as real wages decline at fastest rate in three years (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Labour Market data for May

NEWS.MARKETS - Brexit? Bremain? How soon will markets know? (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Referendum

NEWS.MARKETS - Sterling markets accused of inflation complacency (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

Reuters - UK factory output falls for first time in almost a year (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing Output

Independent - UK mortgage lending rises ahead of possible rate rise (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Halifax House Price data

BBC - Banks report new year buy-to-let rush (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Mortgage approvals

BBC - UK car sales fall for fifth month in a row (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. New Car Registrations

BBC - UK car sales fall 9.3% in July says motor trade body (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. New Car Registrations, July

BBC - House prices in UK shift to lower gear (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. House Prices

BBC NEWS - UK construction sector slows down in January (Media Centre)

Chief U.K.. economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. Construction

*September 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Fed is Not Nearly Done...Real Rates are Still Far Too Low; No Slowdown in Sight

*July 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Fed hawks are in the ascendancy,..but they won't be fully in charge until next year

*July 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Fed plans to keep on hiking...falling unemployment is the key, not the softer CPI

*June 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Payroll "Slowdown" Won't Last... The Fed Will Hike This Month, and Again Later This Year

*June 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

"Gradual" normalization continues, for now...No fourth dot until September

*March 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Powell is a growth bull, not an inflation hawk...Interest rate risk is greater for 2019 than 2018

*January 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Strong growth, rising inflation greet Powel...but is productivity growth finally picking up?

*February 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Has the wages dam finally burst? If it hasn't, it will soon

*April 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Trade talk and falling stocks are hurting...but the fed is still on course for four hikes this year

*April 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Tightening Labor Market is all that Matters...Expect the Fed to Hike at Each Quarter-End

*August 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Fed tightening is deferred, not cancelled...Expected a December hike after robust fall data

*August 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The fed will keep hiking each quarter...they are chasing unemployment, not inflation

*December 2017 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Growth, inflation to challenge the Fed in 2018...faster wage growth will push them too

*May 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Don't be distracted by weak first quarter GDP...The Fed doesn't care (much)

*May 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The cycle is peaking as higher rates begin to bite...but the next downturn is still some way off

*September 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Harvey and Irma will shred late q3/q4 data... ...if the fed doesn't hike in December, they will in march

*October 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Serious Slowdown is Still Some Way Off...So the Fed has to Keep Turning the Screws

*October 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Yellen's inner hawk escapes...Expect a December hike, and four more next year

*November 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Sub -4% Unemployment is coming, and soon...How will the Fed respond?

*November 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Growth Has Peaked as the Tax Cut Boost Fades...But the Labor Market is Keeping the Fed on Track

BBC - Samuel Tombs discussing the Energy Price Cap (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs, Chief Eurozone Economist, discussing the Energy Price Cap on BBC News

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Pantheon Macroeconomics' Chief Economist Dr. Ian Shepherdson provides unbiased, independent economic intelligence to financial market professionals.

Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.

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