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27 October 2017 Korean GDP Rebounds on Exports and Mr. Moon's Fiscal Spending (Publication Centre)

Korean real GDP growth rebounded to 1.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.6% in Q2. The main driver was exports, with government consumption also popping, and private consumption was a little faster than we were expecting.

27 September 2017 A Stable and Solid Outlook for Private Investment in France (Publication Centre)

French business sentiment cooled marginally at the end of Q3. The headline manufacturing confidence index dipped to 110 in September, from 111 in August, though the overall business sentiment gauge was unchanged at 110.

28 Aug 2020 The Fed's Focus is Jobs, No Hike Unless Inflation Runs Riot (Publication Centre)

The difficulty with the Fed's shift in strategy, to the pursuit of an average 2% inflation target "over time", is that they don't have the means in the near term to push inflation above the target, in order to offset the long period of sub-2% rates.

27 Nov 2019 The GM Strike Likely Depressed October Orders, Core Soft too? (Publication Centre)

Today's wave of data will bring new information on the industrial sector, consumers, the labor market, and housing, as well as revisions to the third quarter GDP numbers.

27 May 2020 Low Inflation in Brazil, A Surprising Upward Revision to Mexico's GDP (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday in Brazil support our base case that the IPCA inflation rate will remain relatively stable over the coming months, hovering around 2%.

27 July 2020 Economic Momentum has Stalled, GDP Could Easily Fall in August (Publication Centre)

With just five days of July remaining, it seems likely that the trends in most of the key near-real-time indicators will end the month close to the levels seen at the end of June.

27 Mar 2020 Jobless Claims Crystallize the Covid Disaster, More Pain to Come (Publication Centre)

The speculation is over: 3.283 million people filed a new claim for unemployment benefits last week, nearly double the 1.7M consensus forecast, which looked much too low.

27 Mar 2020 Pre-Virus Q1 Data in Brazil and Mexico Supported More Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus pandemic looks set to spread rapidly throughout LatAm.

28 May 2019 Brazil's Inflation Remains Benign, Mexico's GDP Brings Bad News (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic prospects continue to deteriorate rapidly, due to a combination of rising political uncertainty, the failure of the new government to advance on reforms, and ongoing external threats.

28 May 2019 Japan's CPI Inflation Uptrend Lacks Legs, Holiday Distortions Prevalent (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation last Friday gave Japanese policymakers a break from the run of bad data, jumping to 0.9% in April, from 0.5% in March.

29 Jan 2020 Fed on Hold, Awaiting Macro or Virus Developments, IOER to Rise (Publication Centre)

The Fed will do nothing to the funds rate or its balance sheet expansion program today.

29 May 2018 Does Japanese Core Inflation Respond to Capacity Pressures? (Publication Centre)

Tokyo CPI inflation edged down to 0.4% in May, from 0.5% in April.

29 Oct 2019 The Mexican Economy Stagnated in Q3, Q4 Will be Slightly Better (Publication Centre)

While we were out, data released in Mexico added to our downbeat view of the economy in the near term, supporting our base case for interest rate cuts in the near future.

29 Apr 2020 Brazil's Political Turmoil is Putting Policymakers on a Difficult Spot (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil remained subdued at the start of the second quarter, strengthening the odds for an additional interest rate cut next month, and opening the door for further stimulus in June.

28 Sept 2020 COPOM's Minutes and the Inflation Report Point to Rates on Hold (Publication Centre)

Recent economic data in Brazil, along with recent messages from the BCB, have supported our view that interest rates will remain on hold for the foreseeable future.

28 November 2018 Argentina's Near-term Outlook is Murky, But 2019 Will be Better (Publication Centre)

Argentina's near-term economic outlook remains murky, as recent data has highlighted, hit by tighter financial conditions.

28 Oct 2019 Fernández Likely Won Argentina's Presidency, Brace for the Worst (Publication Centre)

Recent polls in Argentina suggest that Alberto Fernández, from the opposition platform Frente de Todos, has comfortably beaten Mauricio Macri, to become Argentina's president.

27 Jan 2020 Who are the Biggest Casualties of China's Travel Curbs (Publication Centre)

On Friday last week, the Chinese authorities suspended sales of domestic and international tours, in an effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus, which started in Wuhan.

26 June 2020 High Uncertainty about the Recovery will Force Banxico to Cut Further (Publication Centre)

Mexican policymakers yesterday voted unanimously to cut the policy rate by 50bp to 5.00%, the lowest level since late 2016.

23 Sept 2019 Argentina GDP Ended the First Half Poorly, More Pain Lies Ahead (Publication Centre)

Argentina's economy is on the verge of a renewed recession; available data for August and the effect of the recent financial crisis, driven by the result of the primaries, suggest that output will come under severe strain.

24 February 2017 The BCB Remains on Track to Deliver More Easing this Year (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank conformed to expectations on Wednesday, cutting the Selic rate by 75 basis points to 12.25%, without bias. Overall, the BCB recognises that the economic signals have been mixed in recent weeks, but the Copom echoed our view that the data are pointing to a gradual stabilisation and, ultimately, a recovery in GDP growth later this year.

24 January 2019 What's Brewing Under the Surface of the BoJ's Nonchalance (Publication Centre)

We suspect that under the calm surface of the BoJ, a major decision is being debated.

23 November 2018 Slowing Inflation won't Deter the BoJ from Further Adjustments (Publication Centre)

October likely was the peak in Japanese CPI inflation, at 1.4%, up from 1.2% in September. The uptick was driven by the non-core elements, primarily food.

23 June 2020 Last Week's "Black Friday" in Colombia will Boost Covid Cases (Publication Centre)

Recent data in Colombia have confirmed that virus containment measures caused much bigger declines in activity in early Q2 than initially expected.

23 Aug 2019 Inflation Stuns to the Downside in Brazil and Mexico Rate Cuts Loom (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in Brazil and Mexico are well under control, with the August mid-month readings falling more than expected, strengthening the case for the BCB and Banxico to cut interest rates in the near term.

23 July 2020 Japan was off to a Slow Start in Q3, as Second Wave Risks Linger (Publication Centre)

Japan's flash Jibun Bank PMIs for July showed continued improvement, but only just.

24 June 2019 Japan's CPI Inflation has Peaked but the BoJ isn't Bothered (Publication Centre)

Japan's national CPI inflation has peaked, falling to 0.7% in May from 0.9% in April.

24 Sept 2020 Near-Real-Time Data Signal Fading Consumer Services Activity (Publication Centre)

Business surveys released this week suggest the economic recovery decelerated in early September.

25 Sept 2020 The Labor Market is Stalling, with Layoffs Still Hugely Elevated (Publication Centre)

Initial jobless claims have stopped falling.

26 April 2019 Will an Inventory Unwind Stymie the Economy in Q2? (Publication Centre)

The economy's resilience in the first quarter of this year, in the midst of heightened Brexit uncertainty, can be attributed partly to a boost from no-deal Brexit precautionary stockpiling.

26 June 2019 Durable Goods Orders Under Pressure, but no Meltdown (Publication Centre)

I need to ask your indulgence today, because the release of the durable goods and advance international trade reports coincides with my elder daughter's college graduation ceremony.

25 Nov 2019 Inflation in Brazil and Mexico is Easing, No Immediate Threats Here (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the biggest economies in the region remains close to cyclical lows, allowing central banks to ease even further over the next few months.

25 March 2019 Argentina's Economic Recession is Easing, but Political Risk is a Drag (Publication Centre)

Argentina's Q4 GDP report, released last week, underscored the severity of the recession, due to the currency crisis and the subsequent tighter fiscal and monetary policies.

25 Aug 2020 August Flash PMIs Suggest Abe's Second Wave Gamble has Paid Off (Publication Centre)

Japan's advance PMI numbers for August suggest that the economy dodged most of the bullets fired by the second wave of Covid-19.

25 February 2019 China's Deflating Property Boomlet will Spur the Authorities to Action (Publication Centre)

China's 2018 property market boomlet let out more air last month.

29 October 2018 Japan's National CPI won't Match the Tokyo October Jump (Publication Centre)

Tokyo CPI inflation jumped to 1.5% in October, from 1.2% in September. That

29 Sept 2020 LatAm Central Banks have Closed the Door to Further Easing (Publication Centre)

Recent economic data in LatAm have alleviated concerns following weakness in the first half of the year, inflicted by Covid, and have even added some upside risks to our current-quarter growth calls for most economies.

8 September 2017 Brazil's Central Bank Eases Boldly, but Hints at Slower Cuts Ahead (Publication Centre)

Brazil's improving economic and political situation allowed the BCB to cut the Selic rate by 100bp to 8.25% at its Wednesday meeting, matching expectations.

9 April 2019 Inflation in the Andes Remains Tame Despite Overshooting in March (Publication Centre)

Colombia and Chile faced similar broad trends through most of 2018.

9 Dec 2019 Japan's Fiscal Boost will Disappoint, Capacity Constraints are a Drag (Publication Centre)

In Friday's Monitor we analysed the draft Japanese budget, as reported by Bloomberg. We suggested that the GDP bang-for-government-expenditure- buck is likely to be less than that implied by the authorities' forecasts.

7 September 2018 Low Inflation Means Policymakers to Stay Steady in Brazil and Colombia (Publication Centre)

Brazil's benchmark inflation index, the IPCA, fell 0.1% month-to-month unadjusted in August, below market expectations.

7 Oct 2020 Capex Stabilizing in Mexico, Modest Inflation Pressures in the Andes (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirmed that investment in Mexico has been on the mend since June, but activity still remains depressed.

7 Feb 2020 A Weak Economy Could Challenge COPOM's View that Easing is Over (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian central bank cut the benchmark Selic interest rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, on Wednesday night, as expected.

7 Feb 2020 Upside Risk for Payrolls Today, but Forward-Looking Surveys are Soft (Publication Centre)

We raised our forecast for today's January payroll number after the ADP report, to 200K from 160K.

9 Dec 2019 The Consensus Looks too Downbeat on October GDP (Publication Centre)

The release of October's GDP report on Tuesday likely will be overshadowed by campaigning ahead of Thursday's general election.

9 July 2018 Evidence is Mounting that German Manufacturing did Well in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production data in Germany added to the manufacturing optimism following the sharp rise in new orders--see here--reported earlier in the week.

9 November 2018 Brazil's Economic Outlook Keeps Improving Politics are Helping Too (Publication Centre)

News on Mr. Bolsonaro's economic plans and announcements on key names for his government this week are helping the currency and easing risks perception in Brazil.

9 November 2018 Ignore the Headlines the Tariffs are Starting to Hit China's Trade Flows (Publication Centre)

China's official, unadjusted trade data for October grabbed the headlines, as they look great at first glance.

9 October 2018 PBoC RRR cut: The Lady Doth Protest too Much, Methinks (Publication Centre)

Over the weekend, the PBoC cut the RRR for the vast majority of banks. FX reserves data released shortly after suggested that the Bank already is propping up the currency.

9 Mar 2020 The Covid-19 Hit Likely will Allow LatAm Banks to Cut Rates Soon (Publication Centre)

The Fed's 50bp rate cut last week, aiming to shield the U.S. economy against Covid-19, has opened the door for some central banks in LatAm to emulate the move.

9 June 2020 The Severity of the Recession will Keep Inflation Low in the Andes (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus outbreak has pushed inflation lower in the Andean economies as the shock drives them into the deepest recession on record.

9 July 2020 Expect Chaotic Auto Sales and Prices, but the Market is Improving (Publication Centre)

The immediate impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the auto market was calamitous.

9 June 2017 Inflation in Mexico will Stabilize Soon, Despite May's Ugly Headline (Publication Centre)

The Mexican inflation rate soared at the start of 2017, but this is yesterday's story; the headline will stabilize soon and will decline slowly towards the year-end. May data yesterday showed that inflation rose to 6.2%, from 5.8% in April. Prices fell 0.1% month-to-month unadjusted in May, driven mainly by lower non-core prices, which dropped by 1.3%, as a result of lower seasonal electricity tariffs.

6 Oct 2020 The Recovery Is Grinding to a Halt, in the face of the Second Wave (Publication Centre)

We don't take much reassurance from the upward revision to the business activity index of Markit's services PMI to 56.1, from the flash estimate, 55.1.

6 Feb 2020 Productivity Growth is Set to Slow After Last Year's Nine-Year High (Publication Centre)

Productivity likely rose by 1.7% last year, the best performance since 2010.

3 July 2020 Can Any Valuable Information be Extracted from the PMIs? (Publication Centre)

The release today of the final reading of the composite PMI for June will provoke further debate over its usefulness in charting the economy's recovery from the Covid-19 shock.

3 Sep 2020 Follow the Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE to see Underlying Inflation (Publication Centre)

The wild gyrations in the core inflation numbers in recent months have made it hard to keep track of the underlying story.

30 July 2019 Data released last week confirmed that economic activity improved significantly in Argentina in Q2. (Publication Centre)

Argentina's Recession Has Ended, Supporting Mr. Macri's Odds

3 Jan 2020 LatAm Prospects are Gradually Improving as Trade Tensions Ease (Publication Centre)

The data in LatAm were all over the map while we were out.

3 Feb 2020 The Eurozone Economy all but Stalled at the End of 2019 (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance Q4 growth numbers in the EZ were a bit of a dumpster fire.

3 Aug 2020 Flat Near-Real-Time Indicators don't Mean Flat Third Quarter GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

The broadly flat trend in the near-real-time indicators of economic activity shows few signs of ending.

3 December 2018 Tariff Deferment Shows Both Sides Want a Deal, but it Will Take Time (Publication Centre)

The agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 is a deferment of disaster rather than a fundamental rebuilding of the trading relationship between the U.S. and China.

31 July 2020 Every Employment Indicator is Continuing to Glow Bright Red (Publication Centre)

We remain concerned that huge job losses are imminent, slowing the economic recovery after a mid-summer spurt.

4 Aug 2020 Manufacturing is Recovering, but it has not Recovered (Publication Centre)

Under normal circumstances, sustained ISM manufacturing readings around the July level, 54.2, would be consistent with GDP growth of about 2% year-over-year.

5 June 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Suffering, but the Worst is Likely Over (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's industrial production report in Brazil was terrible, despite overshooting market expectations.

5 June 2020 The Economy Started Sluggishly in May, But Soon Gathered Momentum (Publication Centre)

Our judgement that April was the low point for economic activity was challenged yesterday by the publication of results of the fifth wave of the Business Impact of COVID-19 Survey, conducted by the ONS between May 4 and 17.

5 Oct 2020 August GDP Will Prompt the MPC to Reappraise the Recovery's Strength (Publication Centre)

August's GDP report, released on Friday, looks set to reinforce the downward pressure on gilt yields by making it even more likely that the MPC will extend its QE programme later this year.

5 June 2019 EZ Inflation will Fall Further in Q3 but the Core Rate will Rebound (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone tumbled last month, increasing the pressure on Mr. Draghi to deliver another dovish message when the central bank meets on Thursday.

5 February 2019 Where is the Evidence of a Pick-up in China's Household Sector (Publication Centre)

The Caixin services PMI ticked down to 53.6 in January, from 53.9 in December.

5 Aug 2020 Upside Risk for ADP Today, but the Uncertainty is Great (Publication Centre)

The advance indicators of July payrolls are wildly contradictory, so you should be prepared for anything from a consensus-busting jump to a renewed outright drop, in both Friday's official numbers and today's ADP report.

5 Feb 2020 ADP Likely to Report Strong Job Growth in January (Publication Centre)

Our composite index of employment indicators, based on survey data and the official JOLTS report, looks ahead about three months.

23 Apr 2020 India's Sudden Stop Plain to See in Trade, Longer Lockdown to Kill Q2 (Publication Centre)

India's trade data for March highlight the immediate severity of the country's sudden nationwide lockdown.

22 June 2020 Should we be Worried About Second Wave Risks in East Asia? (Publication Centre)

The newest cluster of Covid-19 in China has reignited concerns over a second wave. On June 11, Beijing confirmed its first infection in nearly 60 days, originating reportedly from Xinfadi market, a wholesaler which supplies about 80% of the capital's produce.

12 Feb 2020 Powell Sticks to the Line, Current Policy is "Appropriate" (Publication Centre)

Chair Powell broke no new ground in his semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday, repeating the Fed's new core view that the current stance of policy is "appropriate".

12 February 2019 Mexican Manufacturing set to Struggle in the First Half (Publication Centre)

The Mexican industrial sector is struggling. December industrial output fell 0.4% month-to-month, the third consecutive drop, driven mainly by a similar decline in mining/oil output.

12 January 2018 Inflation in Brazil Ended 2017 Below the Target Range, 2018 Will be Fine (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil ended 2017 well under control, despite December's modest overshoot. This will allow the BCB to cut rates further in Q1 to underpin the economic recovery.

12 December 2018 Core PPI Inflation is Set to Plummet, but the Core CPI won't Follow it Down (Publication Centre)

The overshoot in the November core PPI does not change the key story, which is that PPI inflation, headline and core, is set to fall sharply through the first half of next year, at least.

12 Dec 2019 China's Economic Targets will Remain a Political Affair for 2020 (Publication Centre)

China concludes its annual Central Economic Work Conference today, where the economic targets and the agenda for next year are set.

12 April 2019 Inflation in Brazil Jumped in Q1, but Temporary Factors are to Blame (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil surprised to the upside this week, with a sharp rebound that looks alarming at face value.

12 April 2019 The Brexit Extension isn't the Death Knell for a 2019 Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

The E.U.'s decision to grant the U.K. a Brexit extension until October 31 does not extinguish the possibility that the MPC will raise Bank Rate before the end of the year.

12 July 2019 Brazilian Fundamentals to Improve Further as Key Reform is in Sight (Publication Centre)

Brazil's political situation is steadily improving, with the latest events proving a step in the right direction.

12 June 2020 Brazil's Inflation is in Check, but the Pandemic at Large is a Risk (Publication Centre)

Brazilian political risk remains high, due mainly to President Bolsonaro's gross mismanagement of the Covid-19 crisis, but, as we have argued in previous Monitors, it is unlikely to deter policymakers from further near-term monetary easing.

13 August 2018 The 2018 Story is Intact: Slower GDP growth, and Higher Inflation (Publication Centre)

A sluggish GDP headline, a further increase in inflation, and poor German manufacturing data were the primary euro area highlights in our absence.

13 Dec 2019 Japan's Machine Orders Hack a Hole in the Notion of Resilient Capex (Publication Centre)

We've been consistent in saying that Japanese capex would roll over this year, after strength in the first three quarters was seen by the authorities and many commentators as a sign of resilience.

13 July 2018 Did Sluggish Manufacturing Hold Back the EZ Economy in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in the Eurozone rebounded midway through the second quarter.

12 Oct 2020 Covid-induced Spike in Food Prices Pushes Up Inflation in Brazil and Chile (Publication Centre)

Inflation data for Brazil and Chile released last week surprised to the upside, but the rebound in September mainly was driven by the effect of the reopening of the economy and food-related pressures as external demand increases.

12 May 2020 Andean Economies Stand Out for their Solid Response to Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

The Andean countries were quick to implement significant measures in response to the initial stage of the pandemic, adopting a broad range of economic and social policies to ease the effects.

12 June 2020 Main Capex Pinch in Japan will be in Q3, Stimulus Cushion is Limited (Publication Centre)

Core machine orders in Japan collapsed in April, as expected, falling by 12.0% month-on-month, worse than the minor 0.4% slip in March.

12 March 2018 Expect Rate "Adjustments" from the BoJ, a 2019 "Exit" Looks Unlikely (Publication Centre)

One critical point emerged from last week's otherwise uneventful BoJ meeting: Governor Kuroda said that the BoJ might "adjust" rates before hitting the 2% inflation target.

12 April 2018 China will Take a Breather from PPI Disinflation for a few Months (Publication Centre)

Chinese PPI inflation dropped again in March to 3.1%, from February's 3.7%. Commodities were the driver, but base effects should mean the headline rate won't fall further in coming months; it is more likely to rise in Q2.

11 Sept 2020 Brazil's Retail Sector Started Q3 Solidly, will the Uptrend Continue (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days have confirmed that private spending is on the mend in the biggest LatAm economies.

10 July 2018 Modest Inflation Pressures will Help Central Banks in Q3 and Most of Q4 (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Mexico edged higher in the second half, but we expect both the headline and core rates to continue falling, allowing Banxico to keep interest rates on hold.

10 July 2020 GDP Likely Retraced Just One- Fifth of its Covid-19 Slump in May (Publication Centre)

We expect May's GDP report, released on Tuesday, to provide an early blow to hopes that the economy will embark on a V-shaped recovery this year.

10 October 2018 Underlying Inflation Pressures in Most of LatAm are Under Control (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's CPI report in Mexico confirmed that headline inflation edged higher, to 5.0% in September from 4.9% in August, as the mid-month inflation index suggested.

10 December 2018 LatAm Inflation is Ending the Year at a Comfortable Rate (Publication Centre)

With the exception of Mexico, November inflation was or below expectations in LatAm. Mexico's overshoot increases the likelihood that Banxico will hike its reference rate at the next board meeting on December 20.

10 Dec 2019 Well-behaved Inflation in Mexico and Colombia, A Relief for Policymakers (Publication Centre)

Recent inflation and activity data in Mexico were dovish.

1 April 2019 Don't Be Fooled, Japan's Labour Market Won't Tighten Further (Publication Centre)

Japan's unemployment rate returned unexpectedly to its 26-year low of 2.3% in February, falling from 2.5% in January.

10 Dec 2019 Japan's Revised Q3 GDP Growth Reveals a bit More of the Tax Impact (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP growth was revised up, to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.1% in the preliminary reading.

10 Sept 2020 Initial Claims are Falling, but the Bigger Picture is Still Disconcerting (Publication Centre)

We're expecting to see another dip in initial claims for regular state unemployment benefits today, to about 850K, but that's only part of the story.

11 Aug 2020 Britain's Recovery Likely Quickened in June, but Still Lagged its Peers (Publication Centre)

We expect June's GDP data, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered momentum in June, having got off to a faltering start in May.

11 Oct 2019 Core Inflation is Still Rising, Despite September's Soft Data (Publication Centre)

The undershoot in the September core CPI does not change our view that the trend in core inflation is rising, and is likely to surprise substantially to the upside over the next six-to-12 months.

11 Oct 2019 Inflation Surprises to the Downside in September: Rate Cuts Loom (Publication Centre)

Recent inflation numbers across the biggest economies in LatAm have surprised to the downside, strengthening the case for further monetary easing.

11 May 2020 Bolsonaro's Surreal Approach to the Pandemic is Putting Brazil in Peril (Publication Centre)

Economic conditions in Brazil are deteriorating rapidly.

11 March 2019 Inflation Data in the Andes Validate Forecasts for Stable Interest Rates (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Andes remains in check and the near term will be benign, suggesting that central banks will remain on hold over the coming months.

11 August 2017 Brazil's Inflation Rate is Falling, Mexico's Will Soon Follow (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in Brazil are now well- contained, with the headline rate falling to a decade low in July. We think inflation is now close to bottoming out, but the current benign rate strengthens our base case forecast for a 100bp rate cut at the next policy meeting, in September.

11 Dec 2019 The PBoC Could Cut Rates Again this Year, Easing so far is Insufficient (Publication Centre)

China's November money and credit data were a little less grim, with only M2 growth slipping, due to unfavourable base effects.

13 July 2020 Inflation in Brazil is Tame, Mexico's Industrial Recession Continues (Publication Centre)

Friday's June inflation data in Brazil confirmed that the ripples from the worst of the Covid shock were still being felt at the end of the quarter.

13 February 2019 Few Near-Term Upside Risks to Core Inflation Medium-Term Threat Rising (Publication Centre)

The odds favor--just--an end to the three-month streak of solid 0.2% increases in the core CPI with the release of today's January report.

2 Dec 2019 Further Increase in Japanese Unemployment in Store (Publication Centre)

Japan's jobless rate was unchanged, at 2.4% in October, as the market took a breather after September's job losses.

20 Aug 2020 Japan's First Trade Surplus Since March Isn't a One-Off Affair (Publication Centre)

Japan in July recorded its first trade surplus in three months, as exports continued to show more signs of life.

20 Dec 2019 Banxico to Deliver Further Rate Cuts, Argentina's Recession Ends, Briefly (Publication Centre)

Banxico cut its policy rate by 25bp to 7.25% yesterday, as was widely expected, following similar moves in August, September and November.

19 September 2018 Brazil's Economy is Muddling Through, but the Election is a Risk (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economy surprised to the upside in early Q3, despite downbeat data released in recent days.

19 June 2020 Taking Stock of the EZ Recovery, Is the Virus Returning (Publication Centre)

The gradual reopening of the major EZ economies continues, a process which is now accompanied by the inevitable concern that the virus is regaining a foothold.

19 Feb 2020 India's Slowdown is Over, GDP Growth Likely Rebounded in Q4 (Publication Centre)

India's industrial production data last week are the last set of key economic indicators for the fourth quarter, before next week's Q4 GDP report.

13 March 2019 Tame Inflation and Sluggish Growth the BCB is in no Rush to Shift Tone (Publication Centre)

Brazilian inflation has been well under control in the past few months, still laying the ground for rates to remain on hold for the foreseeable future.

20 December 2018 The Dovish Hike wasn't Dovish Enough for the Stock Market (Publication Centre)

The FOMC did the minimum expected of it yesterday, raising rates by 25bp--with a 20bp increase in IOER--and dropping one of its dots for 2019.

20 Feb 2020 What China's Doing about the Labour Market & Bankruptcy Threat (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's State Council meeting implies that the authorities are starting to take more serious coordinated fiscal measures to counter the virus threat to the labour market and to banks.

21 January 2019 Governor Kuroda is at the Last Chance Saloon, Q2 is it (Publication Centre)

Forecasting BoJ policy for this year is trickier than it has been in a long time.

21 May 2020 Don't Read too Much into the Q1 Stability in Japan's Machine Orders (Publication Centre)

Core machine orders in Japan held up surprisingly well in March, slipping by just 0.4% month-on-month, erasing only part of the 2.3% increase in February.

21 November 2018 A More Data-Dependent Fed is Still not off the Labor Market Hook (Publication Centre)

Expectations for a March rate hike have dipped since Fed Vice-Chair Clarida's CNBC interview last Friday.

21 Feb 2020 China Credit Numbers are not Bad, but Pre-date Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

Once again, Chinese January data released so far suggest that the Phase One trade deal was the dominant factor dictating activity for the first two- thirds of the month, with the virus becoming a real consideration only in the last third.

21 Feb 2020 Buckle Up, Today's Eurozone PMIs Will Move Markets, We Think (Publication Centre)

Today's advance EZ PMIs will be watched more closely than usual.

20 February 2019 Peru's Economic Activity is Improving, Offsetting External Risks (Publication Centre)

Peru's economic recovery gathered strength late last year.

20 Jan 2020 The ECB Won't Flinch Over the Q4 Jump in EZ Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Friday's detailed euro area CPI report for December confirmed that inflation pushed higher at the end of last year. Headline inflation increased to 1.3% year-over- year, from 1.0% in November, lifted primarily by higher energy inflation, rising by 3.4pp, to +0.2%. Inflation in food, alcohol and tobacco also rose, albeit marginally, to 2.1%, from 2.0% in November.

18 September 2018 All Aboard for Lower Headline Inflation in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final CPI report confirmed that inflation in the EZ fell marginally in August, by 0.1 percentage points to 2.0%.

19 July 2017 Peru's Economy is Recovering But Temporary Political Noise is a Drag (Publication Centre)

Following a challenging start to this year, Andean economic prospects are improving gradually, thanks to falling interest rates, lower inflation, relatively stable currencies and--in some cases--increased infrastructure spending.

18 March 2019 BoJ Plays Hedgehog, but Groundwork is Being Laid for an Exit (Publication Centre)

Japan's inflation target came under heavy fire yesterday, as Finance Minister Taro Aso suggested that "things will go wrong if you focus too much on 2%."

14 July 2020 The Pandemic is Far from Over in the Andes, Prolonging the Economic Hit (Publication Centre)

The Johns Hopkins database shows a mixed coronavirus picture in the Andes, with the trend in new cases still rising in Argentina and Colombia, but relatively flat for about the past two weeks in Peru.

14 Jan 2020 Inflation in Brazil Ended 2019 Above the BCB's Target - 2020 will be Fine (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil Ended 2019 Above the BCB's Target; 2020 will be Fine

14 February 2017 Will Today's EZ GDP Report Overcome Poor German Data? (Publication Centre)

All eyes in the Eurozone will be on the second estimate of Q4 GDP today, and the report likely will confirm that growth accelerated in Q4. We think real GDP rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, up from a 0.3% increase in Q3, in line with the first estimate. If this forecast is correct, the year-over-year rate will be unchanged at 1.8%. Risks to the headline, however, are tilted to the downside.

13 May 2020 Ugly Data in Mexico Continue to Set the Stage for Further Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

More depressing economic numbers in LatAm have been released in recent days, and high frequency data continue to show a near-term bleak outlook.

13 Oct 2020 Stimulus Foundering on the Strong Objections of Some GOP Senators (Publication Centre)

As we reach our deadline Monday afternoon, the Columbus Day long weekend has brought no progress on the fiscal front.

15 Jan 2020 Inflation in the Andean Economies Remains Low, but Policies will Differ (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Andean economies ended 2019 well within central banks' objectives, despite many domestic and external challenges.

14 January 2019 Inflation in Brazil is Still Benign, but the Outlook Will Depend on Politics (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil ended 2018 under control, despite slightly overshooting expectations.

18 April 2018 Colombia's Softer Activity Data is Temporary, Expect an Acceleration (Publication Centre)

The February activity report in Colombia showed a modest pick-up in manufacturing activity and strength in the retail sales numbers.

15 June 2020 The Southern Second Wave will be the Exception, not the Rule (Publication Centre)

The surge in Covid-19 case and hospitalizations-- and, in due course, deaths--in some southern states since they began to reopen probably is not a sign of what is likely to happen as the populous states in the Northeast and Midwest reopen too.

17 July 2020 The Surge in Retail Sales is not all that it Seems--and it Might not Last (Publication Centre)

Headline retail sales in June were just 1% below their January peak, and about 3% below the level they would have reached if the pre-Covid trend had continued.

18 Feb 2020 Q4 was an Abrupt End to Japan's early 2019 Mirage (Publication Centre)

We've continuously warned that Japan's national accounts weren't sitting easily with the underlying signals from survey data, and monetary conditions, through last year.

17 Jan 2020 Phase One Deal Puts a Grey Cloud Over End-2020, Silver Lining now (Publication Centre)

To avoid rocking the 2020 boat, the Phase One trade deal needed to be sufficiently vague, so that neither side, and particularly Mr. Trump, would have much cause to kick up a fuss around missed targets.

17 Apr 2020 Low Inflation in LatAm Allows Central Banks to Ease Further in Q2 (Publication Centre)

LatAm currencies fell sharply in Q1 but the hit hasn't yet pushed inflation higher.

17 Feb 2020 Examining the Virus Hit to China's Economy Using Unorthodox Data (Publication Centre)

Data on air quality in China provide some useful insights into the economic disruptions--or lack thereof--caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus from Wuhan and the government's aggressive containment measures.

10 February 2017 Brazil's Inflation will Fall Further this Year, Copom to Ease Boldly (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures are falling rapidly in Brazil, suggesting that the Copom will continue to ease aggressively in the near term. January's CPI report,released Wednesday, showed that inflation plunged to 5.4% year-over-year, from 6.3% in December, chiefly as a result of continued disinflation in key components, such as food, housing prices--including utilities--and transportation.

26 Aug 2020 Capex is Rising, but it Won't Recover its Losses in the Foreseeable Future (Publication Centre)

After two hefty month-to-month increases, durable goods orders ex-transportation now stand only 3.9% below their January pre-Covid peak.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's machinery orders boosted by one-off transportation spike. Japanese PPI ticks higher on commodities. China's new home price rises should remain on the tepid side for now .

3 July 2018 Tariffs and Truck Shortages are Creating Industrial Bottlenecks (Publication Centre)

The startling jump in supplier delivery times in the June ISM manufacturing survey, to a 14-year high, was due--according to the ISM press release--to disruptions to steel and aluminum supplies, transportation problems and "supplier labor issues".

05 Jan. 2016 Don't be Tricked by Fall in German Inflation - the Dip will be Temporary (Publication Centre)

Advance data suggest German inflation pressures eased towards the end of last year. Inflation fell to 0.3% year-over-year in December from 0.4% in November, likely due to a fall in food inflation--mean reversion in fruit and vegetables inflation--and a sharp fall in the annual price increase of clothing and shoes. State data indicate that deflation in household utilities persisted, but that inflation of fuel and transportation is slowly recovering. Assuming a stable oil price in coming months, base effects should push up energy price inflation in the first quarter, though it should then fall again slightly in the second quarter. Overall, though, we expect energy price inflation gradually to stabilise and recover this year.

Consistently Right

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