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1597 matches for " survey":

24 April 2018 Surveys are Stronger than Hard Data, but with no Common Cause (Publication Centre)

The levelling-off in the industrial surveys in recent months is reflected in the consumer sentiment numbers. Anything can happen in any given month, but we'd now be surprised to see sustained further gains in any of the regular monthly surveys.

23 October 2018 Business Surveys have Flattened Richmond Fed due to Correct (Publication Centre)

All the regional PMIs and Fed business surveys are volatile in the short-term, so observations for single months need to be viewed with due skepticism.

23 Jan 2020 The CBI's Survey is Another Positive Sign for the PMI, at the Margin (Publication Centre)

Further evidence that the general election has transformed business confidence emerged yesterday, in the form of January's CBI Industrial Trends survey.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surveyors expect prices to plunge, though lasting damage isn't inevitable.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, February, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Cut-off for the survey too early to give a steer on the virus hit to domestic demand.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Survey's poor construction means it is always too gloomy at the start of recoveries.

24 May 2019 A Little bit of Everything in the May EZ Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of survey data were a mixed bag. The composite EZ PMI edged higher in May to 51.6, from 51.5 in April, but the details were less upbeat, and also slightly confusing.

11 August. 2016 Household Spending Will Not Defy Gravity For Long Surveys (Publication Centre)

Recent retail surveys have indicated that consumers are not suffering yet from Brexit blues. The BRC reported that year-over-year growth in total sales values picked up to 1.9% in July, from 0.2% in June. After adjusting for falling prices, this measure suggests that year-over-year growth in official retail sales volumes held steady at about 4% last month.

22 Feb. 2016 Survey Data Will Weaken in Q1, But Won't Signal a Major Downturn (Publication Centre)

Economic survey data this week will give the first clear evidence on whether recent market volatility has dented Eurozone confidence. The key business and consumer surveys dipped in January, and we now expect further declines, starting with today's PMI data. We think the composite index fell slightly to 53.0 in February from 53.6 in January.

2 July 2020 A Few Silver Linings in Japan's Otherwise Grim Q2 Tankan Survey (Publication Centre)

Japan's Tankan survey for Q2 was unsurprisingly grim, given the devastation caused by the near- global lockdown in the first half of the quarter, and the nationwide state of emergency that enveloped April and May.

26 July 2017 National Surveys are Not Bogged Down by Disappointing PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national business surveys provided an optimistic counterbalance to the underwhelming PMIs on Monday, although they all suggest that the euro area economy is in good form.

13 September. 2016 Will the NFIB Survey Point to Stronger Non-mining Capex? (Publication Centre)

The key labor market numbers from today's August NFIB survey of small businesses have already been released--they appear a day or two before the employment report--but they will be reported as though they are news. The headline hiring intentions reading dipped to nine from 12, leaving it near the bottom of the range of the past couple of years.

20 September 2018 Business Surveys Wobbling in the Face of Higher Rates (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the unexpectedly weak September Empire State survey, released Monday, we are now very keen to see what today's Philadelphia Fed survey has to say.

12 February 2019 The Details Matter Much More than the NFIB Survey's Headline Index (Publication Centre)

We're very interested in the detail of today's January NFIB survey; the headline index, not so much.

21 February 2017 Are EZ Survey Data Overestimating Momentum in the Economy? (Publication Centre)

We think this week's main economic surveys in the Eurozone will take a step back following a steady rise since the end of Q3. Today's composite PMI in the Eurozone likely slipped to 54.0 in February, from 54.4 in January, mainly due to a dip in the manufacturing component. Even if we're right about slightly weaker survey data in February, though, it is unlikely to change the story of a stable and solid cyclical expansion in the EZ.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Continued weakness reflects the survey's construction and timing.

22 May 2020 GDP Likely Has Started to Recover, Despite Still-Gloomy Surveys (Publication Centre)

We're placing less weight than usual on conventional business surveys at the moment, as they are ill-suited to charting the economy's turnaround from the Covid-19 slump.

4 January 2017 Stronger Surveys Should Not Foster Optimism about Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

A cluster of surveys suggest that the manufacturing sector finished 2016 with a flourish, after a dismal performance for most of the year. But momentum will drain away from the sector's recovery in 2017, as higher oil prices make low value-added work unprofitable again and resurgent inflation causes domestic consumer demand to crumble.

8 August 2017 Watch the NFIB Survey for Clues to Job Growth, Capex and Inflation (Publication Centre)

The NFIB survey of small businesses today will show that July hiring intentions jumped by four points to +19, the highest level since November 2006. The NFIB survey has been running since 1973, and the hiring intentions index has never been sustained above 20.

8 June 2020 Mexico's Survey Data are on the Mend, but a Full Recovery is Distant (Publication Centre)

Economic conditions remain challenging in Mexico, despite a modest improvement in leading indicators. The usual surveys currently are not well-suited to capture the economy's upturn from the Covid-19 collapse.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another weak survey, but production will rebound in Q3.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another positive sign, though the survey is not a precise guide to the PMI.

31 Jan 2020 Ignore Korea's Upbeat Surveys: a Coronavirus Hit is Looming (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Korea's two main monthly economic surveys were very perky in January.

27 November 2017 Is it a Bird? Is it a Plane? No, It's the German IFO Survey (Publication Centre)

We are happy to report that the laws of gravity have been temporarily suspended in the German survey data.

29 April 2019 More Soft Surveys in the EZ, but the Q1 GDP Data Should Be Solid (Publication Centre)

The EZ economic survey data for April were disappointing in our absence.

29 June 2018 Surveys Continue to Weaken the Case for a Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

Surveys released yesterday failed to support the MPC's view that the economy has bounced back in Q2.

3 Feb 2020 China's January Survey Data Imply Weakness before the Virus Hit (Publication Centre)

The official PMIs suggest that the January survey data have escaped the worst of the hit from the virus.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: The survey's poor track record recently means its recession signal should not be believed.

25 Mar 2020 Surveys Confirm the Services Meltdown, Industry Better, for Now (Publication Centre)

The huge drop in the March Markit services PMI, reported yesterday, and the modest dip in the manufacturing index, are the first national business survey data to capture the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak.

U.S. Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disconnected from the rebound in China's surveys by the trade war.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mildly encouraging, though the survey has stopped being a bellwether.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim; no sign of hitting bottom despite better regional surveys.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Tentatively moving in the right direction.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not much of a Brexit deal bounce.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still pointing to a recovery in demand.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Reports of falling buyer enquiries are hard to reconcile with sharply lower mortgage rates.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Returning to growth.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Modest revival weakens the case for fresh monetary stimulus.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Depressed, but not knocked out, by Brexit uncertainty.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Renewed stockpiling provides fleeting relief from the downturn.

10 Jan 2020 Payrolls Continuing to Outperform Surveys, Look for 190K in December (Publication Centre)

Our forecast of a solid 190K increase in headline December payrolls ignores our composite employment indicator, which usually leads by about three months and points to a print of just 50K or so.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pre-Brexit preparations offering little support, so far

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably this year's weakest point.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: No longer outperforming now the stockpiling boost has fully worn off.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Renewed stockpiling provides some near-term relief.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: On course to reverse the Q1 boost.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't take the PMI's recession signal literally.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Supply shortages and falling mortgage rates are holding up prices.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: A welcome partial rebound, but a real recovery is unlikely before the fall.

U.S. Datanote: U.S NFIB Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Selling prices surge after tariffs on Chinese imports rise.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: More evidence that the manufacturing downshift is stabilizing.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not as good as it looks.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. NAHB Homebuilder Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, and scope for further gains.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surging employment index means payroll weakness likely will be temporary

U.S. Datanote: Richmond Fed Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Noisy, but the trend seems to have levelled off; signals upside potential for October ISM.

U.S. Datanote: Richmond Fed Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Philly Fed soars; Empire State steady; Richmond Fed tanks; which to believe?

U.S. Datanote: ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Further declines unlikely, but signals slower payroll gains

U.S. Datanote: Empire State Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Awful but likely just a temporary response to the Mexico tariff fiasco.

U.S. Datanote: NAHB Homebuilder Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Treading water, but should strengthen markedly soon.

U.S. Datanote: NAHB Homebuilder Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The clouds over housing are lifting.

U.S. Datanote: Philadelphia Fed Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: More evidence that China's PMI upturn is filtering into U.S. manufacturing.

U.S. Datanote: NFIB Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, but still an incomplete recovery.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: The downturn is accelerating; Brexit uncertainty still to blame.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still struggling, but a recovery in 2020 is in sight.

Global Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, October 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, but not enough alone to drive the overall economy.

23 Nov 2020 Will the November Surveys Pick up on the Vaccine News? (Publication Centre)

Today's advance PMI data were collected between November 12 and 22, giving respondents plenty of time to factor in the prospect of a quick and effective vaccine.

9 July 2018 No Tariff Hit in the Payroll Numbers Yet, but Some Surveys are Wobbling (Publication Centre)

The recent softening in the ISM employment indexes failed to make itself felt in the June payroll numbers, which sailed on serenely even as tariff-induced chaos intensified at the industry and company level.

PM Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still dormant, despite the Brexit delay.

U.K. Datanote U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: A worrying step change in the impact of Brexit uncertainty.

U.K. Datanote: Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slowing, but not as sharply as we had feared.

U.K. Datanote U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stagnation unlikely to persist in Q3.

7 Feb 2020 Upside Risk for Payrolls Today, but Forward-Looking Surveys are Soft (Publication Centre)

We raised our forecast for today's January payroll number after the ADP report, to 200K from 160K.

6 August 2018 July Surveys Point to Below-Trend GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The MPC's view that the economy likely will grow at an above-trend rate over the coming quarters was challenged immediately last week by the PMIs.

28 June 2017 ISM Survey Suggests May Trade Deficit to Drop Sharply (Publication Centre)

The April international trade numbers were startlingly, and surprisingly, horrible. The deficit in trade in goods leaped by $6.2B -- the biggest one-month jump in two years -- to $67.1B, though the headline damage was limited by a sharp narrowing in the oil deficit, thanks to lower prices, and a rebound in the aircraft surplus.

26 June 2019 June's Very Weak CBI Distributive Trades Survey is no Cause for Alarm (Publication Centre)

News websites are emblazoned with the headline that retail sales are falling at their fastest rate since the 2008-to-09 recession.

27 Feb 2020 Treat Surveys Pointing to Stronger Growth in Capex With Scepticism (Publication Centre)

The stagnation in business investment since 2016 has been key to the slowdown in the overall economy since the E.U. referendum.

4 April 2019 Japan's Services Survey Data Overstate Q1 Strength (Publication Centre)

Japan's services PMI edged down to 52.0 in March, from 52.3 in February, taking the Q1 average to 52.0, minimally up from Q4's 51.9.

26 June 2018 Treat Surveys Pointing to Faster Wage Growth Sceptically (Publication Centre)

This was supposed to be the year that wage growth finally would pick up and signal clearly to the MPC that the economy needs higher interest rates.

5 May 2020 Covid Outbreak Over, but no Signs of a Turnaround in Korean Surveys (Publication Centre)

Korea's manufacturing PMI fell for a fourth straight month in April, dropping to 41.6, which is the lowest reading since January 2009.

4 Mar 2020 Brazil's Survey Data Point to a Steady Upturn, but it will Stutter Soon (Publication Centre)

The key story in Brazil this year remains one of gradual recovery, but downside risks have increased sharply, due mainly to challenging external conditions.

U.K. Datanote: Markit CIPS Services Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stagnation signal should be disregarded, again.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Crying wolf, again.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pre-Brexit preparations providing no relief this time.

21 June 2018 Business Surveys Set to Suffer from Tariffs, but the Hit will be Uneven (Publication Centre)

The startling jump in the Philly Fed index in May, when it rose 11.2 points to a 12-month high, seemed at first sight to be a response to fading tensions over global trade.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Dire, even after accounting for seasonal quirks.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: The downturn is deepening, through a rapid rebound will emerge if no-deal Brexit risk subsides.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Work is continuing to dry up as no-deal Brexit risk mounts.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Brexit uncertainty is still hurting, but a boost from lower borrowing costs is coming.

2 Oct 2020 The Good and--Mostly--Bad of Japan's Q3 Tankan Survey (Publication Centre)

Japan's key Tankan indices rebounded in the third quarter, from their lowest levels since the global financial crisis.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: No sign of a turnaround yet.

22 June 2018 Survey Data Suggest that French Manufacturing will Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of French business sentiment data suggest that confidence in the industrial sector was a little stronger than expected in Q2.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't buy the extremely gloomy message.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. NAHB Homebuilder Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: The one bright spot in the economy shines again.

23 March 2018 Don't Over-Interpret the Latest Soft Survey Data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of economic data in the Eurozone added to the evidence that economic momentum is slowing.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Tentative signs of a pick-up in retail sales.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still excessively downbeat.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slumping as firms run down inventories.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July and Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mixed messages warn against coming to strong conclusions.

27 Feb 2020 Survey Data in France were Stable and Solid Midway through Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Covid-19 scare can be split into two stages, the initial outbreak in China, concentrated in Wuhan, and the now-worrying signs that clusters are forming in other parts of the world, primarily in South Korea, the Middle East and Italy.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Small business owners responding to the Jan-Apr stock market rally with the usual lag.

US Datanote: ISM Non-manufacturing Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: The hit from tariffs on consumer goods has gone, mostly.

US Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Bouncing along the bottom; no real recovery in sight.

US Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Really, it's much worse than it looks.

US Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The appearance of normalcy is misleading.

US Datanote: ISM Non-manufacturing Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: The consensus beat doesn't matter; next month will be much worse.

US Datanote: Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Claims are a clear reminder that the Covid hit is not over yet.

US Datanote: NFIB Small Business Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: News from another planet.

US Datanote: NFIB Small Business Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Details are wose than the consensus-beating headline.

US Datanote: NAHB Homebuilder Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: This what a V looks like; back to the pre-Covid level by August?

US Datanote: NAHB Homebuilder Survey (Publication Centre)

In one line: Housing is the hottest part of the whole economy.

US Datanote: Empire State Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Much better, but this is the early stage of the recovery.

US Datanote: Empire State Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery continues, but further significant near-term gains are unlikely.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong, at least before the virus hit.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: House price gains are set to strengthen.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: April's total halt in activity will be followed by an incomplete recovery.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, November, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably still misleadingly weak.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Full steam ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Benefiting from demand displaced by the lockdown.

US Datanote: Empire State Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still soft, but expect a bounce next month from the Phase One trade deal.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising mortgage rates will bring the market back down to earth.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with a post-election recovery in activity and prices.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The bounce in buyer interest will fade soon.

US Datanote: NFIB Small Business Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising stock prices lift small business sentiment; labor market still tight.

US Datanote: NFIB Small Business Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not as good as the headline.

US Datanote: U.S. NFIB Small Business Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing, but not a change in the trend.

US Datanote: U.S. NAHB Homebuilder Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Further gains ahead as the housing market reopens.

US Datanote: U.S. NAHB Homebuilder Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: A huge hit, but not a record low.

US Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims Philadelphia Fed Survey, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: This week's drop is quite modest, most of the action is in the revision to last week.

US Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The small business sector is still depressed, despite the headline uptick.

US Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, October 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but likely to drop in November and December.

US Datanote: Weekly Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Worse--an order of magnitude worse--to come.

US Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, June, Philadelphia Fed Survey, July, Weekly Jobless Claims 7 16 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing near-real-time claims are more important than the good retail sales data.

US Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, December and Empire State Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: No overall PPI threat, but airline fares jump will lift the core PCE deflator.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Services Survey 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Positive growth, but non-retail services activity is still hugely depressed by Covid.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Headline weakness hides employment rebound, but is it real?

US Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing but not necessarily a signal of national manufacturing softening.

US Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing is back in recession.

US Datanote: NFIB Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong almost everywhere.

US Datanote: NFIB Small Business Survey, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, but still bad.

US Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing is growing, but momentum has stalled.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, March and Philadelphia Fed Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Worse to come in housing; Philly Fed near the bottom.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, October 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, but not enough alone to drive the overall economy.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Good news, but it won't last.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: The calm before the storm.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: The details are significantly worse than the headline.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, May 2020, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sluggish recovery in activity and falling inflation point to more QE this month.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, March, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Horrendous, and probably not reflecting the full devastation.

UK Datanote U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, October 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery is slowing and soon will hit a ceiling.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Other data likely are providing a more accurate signal.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The manufacturing recovery is slowing, not unraveling.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, October 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The manufacturing recovery still has legs, but Brexit casts a shadow.

UK Datanote U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, October 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Insulated from the economy's impending double-dip.

UK Datanote U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A jobless recovery can only extend so far.

UK Datanote U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, October 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still storming ahead.

UK Datanote U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lenders likely won't facilitate a lasting surge in sales.

UK Datanote U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Higher mortgage rates will stifle the market before long.

UK Datanote U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, October 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Downward revision adds to evidence the economy had no momentum before the lockdown.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, November 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery has stalled.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still understating the manufacturing sector's recovery.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Philadelphia Fed survey, Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Philly surge looks great, but it's not definitive.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weak and still falling, but not in meltdown.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better but still weak; capex uptick is very welcome.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Make the most of this; it won't last.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by the Mexico tariff debacle; next month will be better.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hugely overstating the national manufacturing picture.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Understating the upswing in output.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Old news.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, October and Empire State Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core sales growth is slowing after unsustainable strength.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Philly details are much stronger than the headline.

UK Datanote: Markit CIPS Construction Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Overall stagnation masks sub-sector divergence.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mixed messages.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Starting to recover, but facing a long uphill journey.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Collapsing, despite no mandatory closures of construction sites.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A logical rebound, but builders are bracing for an incomplete recovery.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: A big step in the right direction.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still weighed down by Brexit uncertainty, but next year should be better.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Higher mortgage rates cast a shadow over the strong recovery in housebuilding.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A Pretty Meaningless Indicator right now.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, January, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with Q1 GDP growth exceeding the MPC's forecast.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, December, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with an immediate pick-up in activity after the election.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, April, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: A total collapse in April, but tentative signs of recovery in other timelier data.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: The election has given housebuilding a new lease of life.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by election-related indecision in the public sector; expect a recovery 2020.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Only a marginal improvement; June will be the real test of consumer demand.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: A pre-shutdown snapshot; unprecedented falls in sales lie ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Signs of moderate growth unlikely to tip the balance on the MPC.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still consistent with a consumer recovery in Q1.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, November 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Almost certainly understating the lockdown's impact.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ending the year on a very weak note.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A total collapse.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably understating the coronavirus hit.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Understating the recovery, due to its poor construction.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with falling manufacturing output and a small drop in the PMI.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Small firms don't like the trade war.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Much stronger than the ISM, but the gap is not necessarily about to close.

4 April 2018 Japan's Tankan Points to Building Inflationary Pressure (Publication Centre)

The Tankan survey--published on Monday--points to still buoyant sentiment, a further tightening of the labour market, and building inflation pressures.

4 April 2019 The Economy is Struggling, but not to the Extent Implied by the PMIs (Publication Centre)

All the main surveys of business activity in Q1 now have been released and they present a uniformly downbeat picture.

4 April 2017 Sterling's Depreciation is a Mixed Blessing for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

The latest Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey has dashed hopes that sterling's depreciation and the pickup in global trade will facilitate strong growth in U.K. production this year. The PMI dropped to 54.2 in March, from 54.6 in February.

19 June 2018 Sales by Buy-to-Let Investors Won't Swamp the Market, For Now (Publication Centre)

The RICS Residential Market Survey caught our eye last week for reporting that new sale instructions to estate agents rose in May for the first month since February 2016.

19 Feb 2020 Investor Sentiment Data Signal a Hit to the PMIs, or Do They (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German ZEW investor sentiment survey provided the first clear evidence of the coronavirus in the EZ survey data.

6 June 2018. Q2 Rebound on Track, Giving the MPC a Brief Window to Hike Rates (Publication Centre)

Business surveys released over the last week have made us more confident in our call that quarter-on- quarter GDP growth will recover to about 0.4% in Q2, from Q1's weather-impacted 0.1% rate.

19 September 2017 Housing Takes a Modest Hurricane Hit, so far, More to Come? (Publication Centre)

The September NAHB survey, released yesterday, shows, that the housing market took a knock from the hurricanes but the damage, so far at least, appears to be contained.

2 Apr 2020 Tankan Implies a Severe Tightening of Japan's Financial Conditions (Publication Centre)

The Q1 Tankan survey headlines were close to our expectations, chiming with our call for year-over-year contraction in Japanese GDP of at least 2%, after the 0.7% decline in Q4.

20 December 2016 The IFO Points to a Strong Finish for the German Economy to 2016 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey capped a fine Q4 for German business survey data. The headline business climate index climbed to a 34-month high of 111.0 in December, from 110.4 in November. An increase in the "current assessment" index was the main driver of the gain, while the expectations index rose only trivially.

20 July 2017 Retail Sales Likely Jumped in June, but the Trend Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

Surveys suggest that today's retail sales figures will show that sales volumes increased by around 1% month-to-month in June, significantly exceeding the consensus, 0.4%. But the pickup in June likely will be just a blip; the further intensification of the squeeze on real wages and a tightening of unsecured lending standards will keep retail sales on a flat path in the second half of 2017.

2 Oct 2019 Japanese Dualism Intensified in Q3 Capex Weak, Consumption Strong (Publication Centre)

Japan's Tankan survey continues to paint a picture of a contracting economy.

4 Feb 2020 Don't Look to the Manufacturing Sector for Growth This Year (Publication Centre)

January's Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggests that the outcome of the general election has brought manufacturers some momentary relief.

6 June 2017 ISM Non-manufacturing Jobs Up Sharply. Summer Payrolls to Surge? (Publication Centre)

The 6.4-point rebound in the May ISM non-manufacturing employment index, to a very high 57.8, supports our view that summer payroll growth will be strong. On the face of it, the survey is consistent with job gains in excess of 300K, as our first chart shows, but that's very unlikely to happen.

19 Dec 2019 The Philly Fed Likely is Still Outperforming, Treat with Caution (Publication Centre)

The next couple of rounds of business surveys will capture firms' responses to the Phase One trade deal agreed last week, though the news came too late to make much, if any, difference to the December Philly Fed report, which will be released today.

18 September 2018 Chainstore Sales Growth has Jumped Thank the Tax Cuts (Publication Centre)

The first estimate of retail sales growth in August was weaker than implied by the Redbook chainstore sales survey, but our first chart shows that the difference between the numbers was well within the usual margin of error.

17 February 2017 Retail Sales Likely got off to a Soft Start This Year (Publication Centre)

Today's official retail sales figures look set to show that consumers tightened their purse strings at the start of this year, following last year's spending spree. We think that retail sales volumes rose by just 1.0% month-to-month in January; that would be a poor result after December's 1.9% plunge. Surveys of retailers have been weak across the board. The reported sales balance of the CBI's Distributive Trade Survey collapsed to -8 in January, from +35 in December. The balance is notoriously volatile, but the 43-point drop is the largest since the survey began in 1983.

17 January 2018 Severe Weather Likely Depressed Homebuilders' Sentiment (Publication Centre)

At the end of last year, U.S. homebuilders were more optimistic than at any time in the previous 18 years, according to the monthly NAHB survey.

17 August 2017 The Manufacturing Recovery Continues, but no Boom in Sight (Publication Centre)

The elevated readings from the ISM manufacturing survey this year have not been followed by rapid growth in output. The headline ISM averaged 55.8 in the second quarter, a solid if unspectacular reading. But output rose by only 1.2% year-over-year, and by 1.4% on a quarterly annualized basis.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

The Tankan survey reinforces our conviction in a c.2% y/y Q1 contraction in Japanese GDP. Caixin suggests March was as bad as February... that's bad. Ignore the headline, Korean exports rebounded strongly in March, salvaging Q1. Korean business sentiment is sinking to GFC territory.

3 Mar 2020 China's PMIs Mean Our GDP Downgrades are the Right Call (Publication Centre)

Last week we made a big call and further downgraded our China GDP forecasts for Q1; daily data and survey evidence suggested that our initial take, though grim, had not been grim enough.

6 Nov 2019 A Lukewarm Response from Firms to the New Brexit Deal (Publication Centre)

October's Markit/CIPS services survey suggests that the PM's new Brexit deal has had a lukewarm reception from firms.

17 July 2020 Unemployment Still Set to Exceed Its Peak After the Last Recession Soon (Publication Centre)

The Labour Force Survey continues to understate massively the damage caused by Covid-19.

30 Aug 2019 Trade Spats are Starting to Hurt Business Sentiment in Korea (Publication Centre)

The recent spate of manufacturing business survey indices from Korea show that sentiment is deteriorating in the wake of its trade spat with Japan and the re-intensification of U.S.-China tensions.

18 Feb 2020 Q4 was an Abrupt End to Japan's early 2019 Mirage (Publication Centre)

We've continuously warned that Japan's national accounts weren't sitting easily with the underlying signals from survey data, and monetary conditions, through last year.

18 Nov 2019 Manufacturing is Outperforming the ISM, Can it Last? (Publication Centre)

Some shoes never drop. But it would be unwise to assume that the steep plunge in manufacturing output apparently signalled by the ISM manufacturing index won't happen, just because the hard data recently have been better than the survey implied.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

PBoC holding still in the wake of Fed rate cut. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was due a bounce. Inflation in Korea will soon take another nosedive, due largely to unfavourable non-core base effects. Korea's export slump turned less bad in July. Korea's two main manufacturing surveys aren't talking to each other.

18 August 2017 Sluggish Income Growth has Held Back Consumption, that will Change (Publication Centre)

Consumer confidence surveys have risen since the elections to levels consistent with very rapid growth in real spending.

17 June 2020 Further Proof of Severe Contraction in Q2, but Signs of Revival from June (Publication Centre)

Incoming data continue to highlight the severe hit from the pandemic on the real economies of the region, but some surveys and leading indicators are already pointing to a gradual upturn from June onwards.

21 Jan 2020 The Drop in Job Openings is Old News, Hard Data are Outperforming (Publication Centre)

Just as we turned more positive on the labor market, following three straight months of payroll gains outstripping the message from an array of surveys, the Labor Department's JOLTS report shows that the number of job openings plunged in November.

21 Nov 2019 The Philly Fed Looks Great, but it's a Huge Outlier and Can't be Trusted (Publication Centre)

If the only manufacturing survey you track is the Philadelphia Fed report, you could be forgiven for thinking that the sector is booming.

5 March 2019 Simultaneous ISM Declines are Disconcerting, but won't Persist (Publication Centre)

The simultaneous weakening of the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys in recent months is one of the more disconcerting shifts in the recent macro data.

25 July 2018 The PMIs are Probably Telling the True Story on the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first batch of Q3 survey data in the Eurozone suggest that economic growth eased further, albeit it slightly, at the start of the quarter.

5 March 2019 Don't Write Off Construction Sector Support for GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

February's Markit/CIPS construction survey brought further evidence that the economy is being weighed down by Brexit uncertainty.

5 June 2020 The Economy Started Sluggishly in May, But Soon Gathered Momentum (Publication Centre)

Our judgement that April was the low point for economic activity was challenged yesterday by the publication of results of the fifth wave of the Business Impact of COVID-19 Survey, conducted by the ONS between May 4 and 17.

5 June 2018 ISM Non-manufacturing Set to Rebound, Watch Employment (Publication Centre)

The headline May ISM non-manufacturing index today likely will mirror, at least in part, the increase in the manufacturing survey, reported Friday.

24 June 2020 Don't Fixate on the PMI Remaining Below 50, GDP is Rebounding (Publication Centre)

Both business surveys and unconventional activity indicators suggest that the recovery from the Covid-19 shock has sped up in June, after a shaky start in May.

5 Nov 2020 Eurozone GDP will Decline in Q4, but by How Much (Publication Centre)

Normally, we wouldn't pin our story on the fact that the PMIs are signalling a risk of outright contraction in the economy, but on this occasion we think the surveys are on the money.

24 June 2020 Steady as She Goes in the EZ PMIs, the Rebound Continues (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's June PMIs offered more of the same, insofar as the survey's key message goes in the past few months.

24 Sept 2020 Near-Real-Time Data Signal Fading Consumer Services Activity (Publication Centre)

Business surveys released this week suggest the economic recovery decelerated in early September.

25 April 2018 A Warning From the IFO (Publication Centre)

The April IFO business sentiment survey increased the degree of uncertainty over the German economy, following stabilisation in the PMIs earlier this week.

24 Oct 2019 Core Capex Orders aren't as Weak as the ISM Suggests... Yet (Publication Centre)

Core durable goods orders have not weakened as much as implied by the ISM manufacturing survey, as our first chart shows, but it is risky to assume this situation persists.

6 Feb 2020 The PMIs Point to Stronger GDP Growth in Q1 than the MPC Expects (Publication Centre)

The post-election run of upbeat business surveys was extended yesterday, with the release of the final Markit/CIPS services PMI for January.

UK 15 May 2020 Housing Market Activity Won't Return to Pre-Virus Levels this Year (Publication Centre)

April's RICS Residential Market survey confirmed that housing market activity collapsed to negligible levels during the lockdown, which prohibited property viewings, depleted the work forces of lenders and prompted many people to defer big financial decisions.

5 June 2017 May Payrolls Hit by the Calendar, Expect a Rebound, and a Fed Hike (Publication Centre)

We don't believe that payrolls rose only 138K in May. History strongly suggests that when the May payroll survey is conducted relatively early in the month, payroll growth falls short of the prior trend.

6 February 2019 Q1 GDP Growth will be Lacklustre, but not as Bad as the PMIs Imply (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's news that the business activity index of the Markit/CIPS services survey fell again in January, to just 50.1--its lowest level since July 2016--has created a downbeat backdrop to the MPC meeting; the minutes and Q1 Inflation Report will be published on Thursday.

22 Nov 2019 Soft Manufacturing in France, but Robust Services and Construction (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of survey data in France suggests that business sentiment in the industrial sector remained soft mid-way through Q4, but the numbers are more uncertain than usual this month.

6 July 2020 The EZ PMIs are Still Improving, but that Doesn't Tell us Much (Publication Centre)

Friday's final June PMI data confirmed the survey's recovery through Q2. The composite index edged higher to 48.5, from 31.9 in May, extending its rebound from a low of just 13.6 in April.

4 Sep 2020 The Recovery in Chinese Services is Very Uneven, the Punchy PMI Aside (Publication Centre)

China's services sector continues to do most of the heavy lifting for the economy's recovery this quarter, judging by the survey data.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Positives in the Tankan survey should be taken with a pinch of salt.

4 May 2018 April Payrolls Likely Were Solid, but is Trouble Brewing for late Spring? (Publication Centre)

April payroll growth likely will be reported at close to 200K. Overall, the survey evidence points to a stronger performance, but they don't take account of weather effects, and April was a bit colder and snowier than usual. We're not expecting a big weather hit, but some impact seems a reasonable bet.

22 Oct 2019 China-Sensitive Regions are Suffering as the Trade War Worsens (Publication Centre)

After the strong Philly Fed survey was released last week, we argued that the regional economy likely was outperforming because of its relatively low dependence on exports, making it less vulnerable to the trade war.

6 Jan 2020 Monetary Indicators Point to Stronger GDP Growth Ahead (Publication Centre)

November's monetary indicators provide an upbeat rebuttal to the swathe of downbeat business surveys. Year-over-year growth in the MPC's preferred measure of broad money--M4 excluding intermediate other financial corporations--rose to a 19-month high of 4.0% in November, from 3.5% in October.

24 Feb 2020 PMIs Point to Above-Trend Growth, Despite Virus and Weather Headwinds (Publication Centre)

The flash readings of the Markit/CIPS surveys in February provide reassurance that GDP is on track to rebound in Q1, despite disruption to the global economy caused by the COVID-19 outbreak and bad weather in the U.K. this month.

24 January 2017 EZ Economic Data Will Struggle to Live Up to Expectations in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Consensus forecasts expect further gains in this week's key EZ business surveys, but the data will struggle to live up to expectations. The headline EZ PMIs, the IFO in Germany, and French manufacturing sentiment have increased almost uninterruptedly since August, and we think the consensus is getting ahead of itself expecting further gains. Our first chart shows that macroeconomic surprise indices in the euro area have jumped to levels which usually have been followed by mean-reversion.

5 Feb 2020 ADP Likely to Report Strong Job Growth in January (Publication Centre)

Our composite index of employment indicators, based on survey data and the official JOLTS report, looks ahead about three months.

24 April 2017 Take None of Last Week's Data at Face Value -- Distortions Abound (Publication Centre)

The gap between the hard and soft data from the industrial economy appeared to widen still further last week. But we are disinclined to take the data--the official industrial production report for March, and the first survey evidence for April--at face value.

23 November 2018 Economic Growth in France Should Maintain Momentum in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of survey data in France, tentatively suggest that business sentiment is stabilising following a string of declines since the start of the year.

3 July 2019 Not All Construction Sector Indicators are Flashing Red (Publication Centre)

Don't write off the outlook for the construction sector purely on the basis of June's grim Markit/CIPS survey.

3 July 2019 Japan's Tankan Highlights Underlying Economic Weakness (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q2 Tankan survey wasn't all bad news, but the positives won't last long. The large manufacturers index dropped to 7 in Q2, after the decline to 12 in Q1.

1 September 2017 Expect Strong August Payrolls, but Calendar Distortions will hit Wages (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators all point to a solid August payroll number. Survey-based measures of the pace of hiring signal a 200K-plus increase, and jobless claims--a proxy for the pace of gross layoffs--are at a record low as a share of the workforce.

10 April 2017 Falling Unemployment Matters More than the Weather-hit Jobs Number (Publication Centre)

The BLS offered no estimate of the impact on payrolls of the snowstorm which hit the Northeast during the March survey week, but it appears to have been substantial. All the leading indicators pointed to a solid 200K-plus reading, more than double the official initial estimate, 98K.

26 September. 2016 When Will Manufacturing Shake off the Summertime Blues (Publication Centre)

We're still no nearer to a definitive answer to the question of what went wrong in the manufacturing sector over the summer, when we expected to see things improving on the back of the rebound in activity in the mining sector, rising export orders and an end to the domestic inventory correction. Instead, the August surveys dropped, and September reports so far are, if anything, a bit worse.

1 July 2020 ADP Likely to Report Rising June Payrolls, but Anything Could Happen (Publication Centre)

Today brings a raft of data with the potential to move markets, but we're far from convinced that the two most closely-watched reports--ADP employment and the ISM manufacturing survey--will tell us much about the future.

6 Oct 2020 Mexico's PMIs are Improving, but the Near-Term Outlook Remains Bleak (Publication Centre)

The September PMI surveys in Mexico continue to bolster our argument for a subpar recovery in the second half of the year.

1 December. 2016 ISM Set to Show that Manufacturing is Recovering, Albeit Slowly (Publication Centre)

We have lost count of the number of times the drop in the ISM manufacturing survey, in the wake of the plunge in oil prices, was a harbinger o f recession across the whole economy. It wasn't, because the havoc wreaked in the industrial economy by the collapse in capital spending in the oil sector was contained.

10 August 2018 The Housing Market Still has a Faint Pulse (Publication Centre)

Surveys released over the last week have suggested that the housing market might be past the worst.

10 Dec 2019 Small Firms Like Rising Stock Prices, even as Trade Uncertainty Continues (Publication Centre)

The monthly survey of small businesses conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business is quite sensitive to short-term movements in the stock market, so we're expecting an increase in the November reading, due today.

27 October 2017 Will Future Increases in the National Living Wage Fuel Inflation? (Publication Centre)

The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, which contains granular detail on wages and provides a useful cross-check on the regular average weekly wage earnings--AWE--data, was published yesterday.

10 Nov. 2015 Focus on Older Workers in Jobs Report Misses the Bigger Picture (Publication Centre)

Investors and market observers of a relatively bearish persuasion argued over the weekend that the details of the October employment report were less encouraging than the headline, principally because the household survey showed that all the job growth, net, was among older workers, defined as people aged 55-plus. This, they argue, suggests that most of the increased demand for labor was concentrated in low-paid service sector jobs, where older workers are concentrated, perhaps reflecting retail hiring ahead of the holidays. Such a wave of hiring is unlikely to be repeated over the next few months, so payroll growth won't be sustained at its October pace.

25 Sept 2020 The IFO and INSEE Data are More Nuanced than the PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national survey data painted a more nuanced picture of the recovery in the major Eurozone economies than the warning sent by the PMIs earlier in the week; see here.

10 July 2018 Businesses' Capex Plans Set to Surge, Following Stronger Earnings (Publication Centre)

For some time now, we have puzzled over the softness of small firms' capital spending intentions, as measured by the monthly NFIB survey.

27 May 2020 The Jump in Consumers' Inflation Expectations Doesn't Matter (Publication Centre)

Don't be alarmed by the second straight jump in consumers' inflation expectations, captured by the Conference Board's May survey, reported yesterday.

07 Mar. 2016 Wage Pressures are Building - Fed Inaction Will Hurt, Later (Publication Centre)

Whatever you do, don't fret over the apparent loss of momentum in the wages numbers; it's a classic statistical head fake, as we pointed out in Friday's Monitor, before the report. When the 15th of the month--payday for people paid semi monthly-- falls after the employment survey week, the BLS fails properly to capture their income, and hourly earnings are under-reported.

26 Nov 2020 The Vaccine can't Come Quickly Enough for France's Economy (Publication Centre)

This week's surveys data in France, for November, have all but confirmed that the economy will be knocked off its perch in Q4.

25 July 2018 Threats Posed by Brexit and Trump Stymie Manufacturing Investment (Publication Centre)

The CBI's Industrial Trends Survey, for July and Q3, supplied encouraging evidence yesterday that the manufacturing upswing still has momentum.

26 Feb. 2015 GDP growth will pick up in the Eurozone this year (Publication Centre)

Hard economic data for the first quarter will appear over the next few weeks, but the EC sentiment survey later today gives a useful overview of how the euro area economy started the year.

7 Jan 2020 Emerging Signs of a "Boris Bounce" in December's Services PMI (Publication Centre)

Hopes that GDP growth will strengthen following the general election, which has eliminated near- term threats of a no-deal Brexit and a business- hostile Labour government, were bolstered yesterday by the release of December's Markit/ CIPS services survey.

8 June 2017 Hiring Plans Signal 200K-plus Summer Payroll Gains (Publication Centre)

Our core view on the May payroll number remains that the single most likely cause of the unexpectedly modest increase is a seasonal adjustment error, triggered when the survey is conducted early in the month.

7 June 2017 Sentiment Indicators Signal Better Times for the Mexican Economy (Publication Centre)

Mexico's survey data have improved significantly over the last few months, reaching levels last since before Donald Trump won the U.S. election in November. This suggest that the economy is in much better shape than feared earlier this year. Consumer confidence, for instance, has continued its recovery.

8 Oct 2019 Mexico PMIs, Business Capex, and Hiring are Weakening Rapidly (Publication Centre)

September PMI surveys in Mexico continued to bolster our argument for a subpar recovery in the second half of the year.

8 September. 2016 Claims, JOLTS, and Sales Don't Support the Grim ISM Message (Publication Centre)

We argued yesterday that the steep declines in the ISM surveys in August, both manufacturing and services, likely were one-time events, triggered by a combination of weather events, seasonal adjustment issues and sampling error. These declines don't chime with most other data.

9 January 2019 Small Firms are Cutting their Capex Plans but Raising Prices (Publication Centre)

The only way to read the December NFIB survey and not be alarmed is to look at the headline, which fell by less than expected, and ignore the details.

26 March 2019 A Few Bright Spots in the IFO, but Still an Overall Subdued Story (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO offered a rare upside surprise in the German survey data.

26 Mar 2020 The Terrible Extent of the Covid-19 Damage is Now Emerging (Publication Centre)

Analysing the EZ sentiment data at the moment is a bit like a surveyor being called out to assess the damage on a property after a flood.

26 June 2018 The German Economy is No Longer Firing on All Cylinders (Publication Centre)

The verdict from the German business surveys is in; economic growth probably slowed further in Q2.

03 October. 2016 ISM Unlikely to Rebound Much, but Manufacturing is Not Shrinking (Publication Centre)

Today's September ISM manufacturing survey is one of the most keenly-awaited for some time. Was the unexpected plunge in August a one-time fluke--perhaps due to sampling error, or a temporary reaction to the Gulf Coast floods, or Brexit--or was it evidence of a more sustained downshift, possibly triggered by political uncertainty?

11 Feb 2020 The Coronavirus will test the Policy Put's Effect on EZ Equities (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Sentix investor sentiment survey provided the first glimpse of conditions on the ground in the EZ economy in the wake of the coronavirus scare.

11 July 2017 Small Businesses are Still Optimistic, but a Correction is Due (Publication Centre)

Before last November's election, movements in the headline NFIB index of activity and sentiment among small businesses could be predicted quite reliably from shifts in the key labor market components, which are released in advance of the main survey.

3 Apr 2020 Unfortunately, Jobless Claims Could Easily Rise Again Next Week (Publication Centre)

Today's payroll number is completely irrelevant, because 97% of the 10.2M increase--so far--in initial jobless claims from their pre-coronavirus level came after the employment survey was conducted, between Sunday March 8 and Saturday March 14.

3 April 2017 Expect Strength in Both the ISM and Construction Data Today (Publication Centre)

We'd be very surprised to see a material weakening in today's March ISM manufacturing survey. The regional reports released in recent weeks point to another reading in the high 50s, with a further advance from February's 57.7 a real possibility.

29 September 2016 Consumers' Spending Growth in Germany is Slowing, Modestly (Publication Centre)

Survey data in the Eurozone were mixed yesterday. In Germany, the advance GfK consumer sentiment index slipped to 10.0 in October, from 10.2 in September, marginally below consensus forecasts. The details, reported for September, also were soft.

29 Oct 2019 Consumers Still Confident, but Job Growth will Slow, Testing their Faith (Publication Centre)

We aren't convinced by the idea that consumers' confidence will be depressed as a direct result of the rollover in most of the regular surveys of business sentiment and activity.

9 May 2017 Chainstore Sales Rebound Points to Robust Q2 Consumption (Publication Centre)

If the Redbook chain store sales survey moved consistently in line with the official core retail sales numbers, it would attract a good deal more attention in the markets. We appreciate that brick-and-mortar retailers are losing market share to online sellers, but the rate at which sales are moving to the web is quite steady and easy to accommodate when comparing the Redbook with the official data.

13 Jan 2020 Labor Market Strength Means no Need for the Fed to Ease this Year (Publication Centre)

Here's the bottom line: U.S. businesses appear to have over-reacted to the impact of the trade war in their responses to most surveys, pointing to a serious downturn in economic growth which has not materialized.

3 April 2017 Eurozone Consumers Likely had a Slow Start to 2017 (Publication Centre)

We fear that private spending in the EZ slowed in Q1, despite rocketing survey data. This fits our view that household consumption will slow in 2017 after sustained above-trend growth in the beginning of this business cycle.

3 August 2018 Strong Job Growth Likely Continued in June Wage Gains Still Modest (Publication Centre)

We look for a 210K increase in July payrolls. That would be consistent with the message from an array of private sector surveys, as well as the recent trend.

3 Jan 2020 Manufacturing Still Struggling, but no Longer Sinking Deeper (Publication Centre)

The substantial gap between the key manufacturing surveys for the U.S. and China, relative to their long-term relationship, likely narrowed a bit in December.

3 July 2018 Tariffs and Truck Shortages are Creating Industrial Bottlenecks (Publication Centre)

The startling jump in supplier delivery times in the June ISM manufacturing survey, to a 14-year high, was due--according to the ISM press release--to disruptions to steel and aluminum supplies, transportation problems and "supplier labor issues".

15 Nov 2019 The Current Soft Patch in Retail Sales won't Last Long (Publication Centre)

October's 0.1% month-to-month fall in retail sales volumes was disappointing, following substantial improvements in the CBI, BRC and BDO survey measures.

13 Nov 2020 Banks Threatened to Turn the Screws on Borrowers, but Haven't (Publication Centre)

The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Surveys in April and July were deeply alarming, signaling that banks were aggressively tightening lending standards for firms of all sizes.

3 Dec 2019 Chainstore Sales for Thanksgiving Week Usually Look Good, but... (Publication Centre)

The Redbook chainstore sales survey today is likely to give the superficial impression that the peak holiday shopping season got off to a robust start last week.

29 Nov 2019 EZ Leading Indicators are Still Mixed, We put our Faith in M1 (Publication Centre)

Leading economic indicators in the Eurozone continue to send contradictory signals. Most of the headline surveys indicate that a further slowdown, and perhaps even recession, are imminent, while the money supply data suggest that GDP growth is about to re-accelerate.

29 May 2019 Consumer and Business Confidence Show Diverging Responses to Brexit (Publication Centre)

May's E.C. Economic Sentiment survey was a blow to hopes that the six-month stay of execution on Brexit would facilitate a recovery in confidence.

11 Sept 2019 Small Firms are Nervous about the Future, but no Meltdown, Yet (Publication Centre)

The August NFIB survey of activity and sentiment at small businesses was soft, but it could have been worse.

28 June 2019 Consumers' Confidence Still Points to Steady Growth in Spending (Publication Centre)

The latest E.C. survey shows the gap between firms' and households' confidence levels has remained substantial.

28 Jan 2020 Plummeting Boeing Orders Mean Downside Risk for Durable Goods (Publication Centre)

Core durable goods orders in recent months have been much less terrible than implied by both the ISM and Markit manufacturing surveys.

11 October 2017 JOLTS Data Signal Rapid Job Gains, and Tight Labor Supply (Publication Centre)

Today's JOLTS survey covers August, which seems like a long time ago. But the report is worth your attention nonetheless.

28 Aug 2019 Consumers are Very Happy About the Labor Market: Can it Last? (Publication Centre)

We were happy to see upside surprises from both sides of the domestic economy yesterday, but we doubt that the August readings from both the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey and the Richmond Fed business survey can hold.

11 September 2018 Business Owners Bullish, but Where's the Capex (Publication Centre)

If you had only the NFIB survey of small businesses as your guide to the state of the business sector, you'd be blissfully unaware that the economic commentariat right now is obsessed with the potential hit from the trade tariffs, actual and threatened.

12 Aug 2020 The Downturn in Employment is Only Half-way Complete (Publication Centre)

We continue to take little comfort from the small decline in the Labour Force Survey measure of employment in the first half of this year.

9 July 2019 Did the Rising China Tariffs and the Mexico Threat Scare Small Firms? (Publication Centre)

Small business sentiment and activity, as reported by the NFIB survey, has recovered exactly half the drop triggered by the rollover in stock prices in the fourth quarter. This matters, because most people work at small firms, which are responsible for the vast bulk of net job growth.

29 March 2019 Debt-Assisted Household Spending Will Keep Potential BoK Cuts at Bay (Publication Centre)

Korea's business survey index rose for a second straight month in March, to 75 from 73 in February, on our adjustment.

12 July 2019 House Prices Starting to Turn The Corner, Despite Brexit Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

June's RICS Residential Market Survey brings hope that the housing market already is over the worst.

28 Oct 2019 The Trade Deficit Looks Set to Explode in Q4, it's not Just Boeing (Publication Centre)

Recent export performance has been poor, but the export orders index in the ISM manufacturing survey-- the most reliable short-term leading indicator--strongly suggests that it will be terrible in the fourth quarter.

28 Oct 2019 Germany is in Recession, When Will the Recovery Begin? (Publication Centre)

Survey data in Germany showed few signs of picking up from their depressed level at the start of Q4.

6 December 2017 Don't Take Seriously Surveys Pointing to Faster Q4 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

November's Markit/CIPS surveys for the manufacturing, construction and services sectors suggest that GDP growth is on track to strengthen a touch in Q4.

18 August. 2015 Can the Fed Hike if the Empire State Survey is Right? (Publication Centre)

Just how weak would the manufacturing sector have to be in order to persuade the Fed to hold fire this fall, assuming the labor market numbers continue to improve steadily? The question is germane in the wake of the startlingly terrible August Empire State manufacturing survey, which suggested that conditions for manufacturers in New York are deteriorating at the fastest rate since June 2009.

12 May. 2016 Does the Challenger Survey Signal an Upturn in the Pace of Layoffs? (Publication Centre)

You may have seen the chart below, which shows what appears to be an alarming divergence between the official jobless claims numbers and the Challenger survey's measure of job cut announcements. We should say at the outset that the chart makes the fundamental mistake of comparing the unadjusted Challenger data with the seasonally adjusted claims data.

13 February 2019 Is the Collapse in the Argentinian Survey and Real Data over (Publication Centre)

We will be paying special attention to the sentiment surveys for Argentina over the coming weeks.

3 May 2017 EZ Q1 GDP Growth Likely won't Live up to the Soaring Surveys (Publication Centre)

Survey data point to a very strong headline, 0.6%-to-0.7% quarter-on-quarter, in today's Q1 advance Eurozone GDP report. But the hard data have been less ebullient than the surveys. A GDP regression using retail sales, industrial production and construction points to a more modest 0.4% increase, implying a slowdown from the upwardly-revised 0.5% gain in Q4.

09 Feb. 2016 NFIB Survey Components are More Important than the Headline (Publication Centre)

The headline number in today's NFIB survey of small businesses probably will look soft. The index is sensitive to the swings in the stock market and we'd be surprised to see no response to the volatility of recent weeks. We also know already that the hiring intentions number dropped by four points, reversing December's gain, because the key labor market numbers are released in advance, the day before the official payroll report.

26 Mar. 2015 Survey Data Point to a Recovery for German Investment in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The IFO survey released yesterday provides further evidence that the cyclical recovery in Germany's economy continued in the current quarter. The headline business climate index rose to 107.9 in March from 106.8 in February, lifted by increases in both the current assessments and expectations index.

26 Apr. 2016 Focus on the Positive Details in Yesterday's German IFO Survey (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German IFO survey suggests that economic momentum in the Eurozone's largest country remained modest at the start of Q2. The headline business climate index fell trivially to 106.6 in April, from 106.7 in March, lower than the consensus expectation of an increase to 107.2.

26 August. 2016 EZ Economic Bulls Checked by IFO and INSEE Business Surveys (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey in Germany was a nasty downside surprise for markets. The business climate index slipped to 106.2 in August, from 108.3 in July, well below the consensus forecast for a modest rise. In addition, the expectations index slid ominously to 100.1, from a revised 102.1 in July.

DAILY TELEGRAPH - Eurozone surveys make for 'grim reading' as region stutters (Media Centre)

Eurozone surveys make for 'grim reading' as region stutters

24 May 2017 Weak Tax Receipts Cast Doubt on Business Surveys' Optimism (Publication Centre)

April's public finances indicate that the economy has remained weak in Q2, casting doubt on the suggestion from recent business surveys that the slowdown in Q1 was just a blip.

15 September. 2016 Will September's Regional Surveys Follow the ISM's Drop? (Publication Centre)

Today's huge wall of data will add significantly to our understanding of third quarter economic growth, with new information on consumers' spending, industrial activity, inflation and business sentiment. In light of the unexpected drop in the ISM surveys in August, we are very keen to see the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys for September.

24 July 2019 The ECB's Q2 Lending Survey Provides Support for ECB Doves (Publication Centre)

The headline in yesterday's ECB Q2 bank lending survey seemed almost tailor-made for the central bank to deliver a dovish message to markets this week.

5 May 2017 Surveys Signal a Solid Start to Q2, but "Hard" Data Remain Weak (Publication Centre)

Activity surveys picked up across the board in April, offering hope that the slowdown in GDP growth--to just 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q1-- will be just a blip. The headline indicators of surveys from the CBI, European Commission, Lloyds Bank and Markit all improved in April and all exceeded their 2004-to-2016 averages.

24 Mar 2020 Covid-19 is now Washing through the Eurozone Macro Surveys (Publication Centre)

The economic damage from the measures taken to curb the Covid-19 outbreak is now wreaking havoc with the key EZ surveys.

7 May 2019 The Economy's Pulse is Stronger than Business Surveys Suggest (Publication Centre)

All the main business surveys released last week continued to paint a picture of a listless economy.

23 February 2018 IFO and INSEE Business Surveys Compound February Misery (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national surveys in the EZ confirmed the downbeat message from the PMIs and consumer sentiment data earlier this week.

22 November. 2016 Will November EZ Survey Data Take a Step Back this Week? (Publication Centre)

November data for most of the major EZ business and consumer surveys arrive this week. We doubt the reports will change our view that EZ GDP growth likely will remain steady at about 1.6% year-over-year in Q4. But appearances matter, and risks are tilted to the downside in some of the main surveys, after jumps in October.

19 July. 2016 EZ July Survey Data Will be Tainted by the U.K. Referendum Result (Publication Centre)

Today's ZEW investor sentiment report in Germany will kick off a busy week for Eurozone economic survey data, which likely will be tainted by the U.K. referendum result. We think the headline ZEW expectations index fell to about five in July, from 19.2 in June, below the consensus forecast, 9.2. Our forecastis based on the experience from recent "unexpected" shocks to investors' sentiment.

22 Mar. 2016 Will Economic Survey Data Step Back From the Brink this Week? (Publication Centre)

Financial markets and economic survey data have been sending a downbeat message on the Eurozone economy so far this year. The composite PMI has declined to a 12-month low, consumer sentiment has weakened, and national business surveys have also been poor.

Softer February survey data in the Eurozone (Media Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Eurozone economist Claus Vistesen discusses the latest survey data and political developments in the Eurozone economy.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The Brexit extension brings some relief.

GUARDIAN - UK manufacturers suffer further drop in orders, CBI survey shows (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. manufacturing

NEW YORK TIMES - Survey Indicates Slower Growth in Services Sector (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on ISM Non-Manufacturing

25 Nov 2020 Will the German Economy Dodge a Bullet in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed Q3 GDP data in Germany confirmed that output rose sharply as the economy reopened.

25 Nov 2020 Herd Immunity Is a Realistic Possibility by May (Publication Centre)

News from AstraZeneca that its vaccine is 70% effective at preventing Covid-19 symptoms leaves leaked government plans for a rapid immunisation programme looking realistic.

25 Nov 2019 The PMI Data Still Signal Weaker Growth ahead in the EZ (Publication Centre)

The PMIs in the Eurozone are still warning that the economy is in much worse shape than implied by remarkably stable GDP growth so far this year.

25 Nov 2020 Yellen will be an Excellent Treasury Secretary, but the Role is Limited (Publication Centre)

The impending appointment of ex-Fed Chair Yellen as Treasury Secretary is to be welcomed--a safer pair of hands is hard to imagine--but it does not change our view that the next Covid relief bill will be modest if Republicans still control the Senate after the January 5 runoffs in Georgia. As Treasury Secretary, Dr. Yellen will have a powerful bully pulpit, alongside Fed Chair Powell to make the case for more fiscal action.

25 November. 2016 German GDP Growth Will Rebound in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in Germany confirmed that the economy slowed in Q3, but also added to the evidence that growth will rebound in Q4. The second estimate for Q3 showed that real GDP rose 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, slowing from a 0.4% gain in Q2.

25 Oct 2019 Mortgage Lending to Remain Stable, Despite the Brexit Headwinds (Publication Centre)

The mortgage market is continuing to hold up surprisingly well, given the calamitous political backdrop.

25 Oct 2019 Capex is Falling, and a Huge Aircraft Inventory Overhang is Building (Publication Centre)

The gaps in the third quarter GDP data are still quite large, with no numbers yet for September international trade or the public sector, but we're now thinking that growth likely was less than 11⁄2%.

25 Oct 2019 A Dignified Farewell by Mr. Draghi, All Eyes Now on Ms. Lagarde (Publication Centre)

The ECB made no changes to policy yesterday, leaving its key refinancing and deposit rates unchanged, at 0.00% and -0.5%, and confirmed that it will restart QE in November at €20B per month.

25 Nov 2019 The New Flash PMIs: Plenty of Noise, not Much Signal (Publication Centre)

Investors think it more likely that the MPC will cut Bank Rate in the first half of next year, following Friday's release of the flash Markit/CIPS PMIs for November.

25 Nov 2019 Japanese October Retail Sales Likely Plunged, Despite Stable Inflation (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation was stable at 0.2% in October, despite the sales tax hike, thanks to a combination of offsetting measures from the government and a deepening of energy deflation.

25 March 2019 Dark Clouds over Manufacturing in the EZ, but Services are Stable (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, the key message from the Eurozone PMIs was little changed on Friday.

25 Mar 2020 The Plunge in Japan's Services PMI Confirms a Recession is Underway (Publication Centre)

If Japan's flash PMIs for March are a sign of things to come, then the government really should get moving on fiscal stimulus.

25 Mar 2020 The Covid Hit is Starting to Show in the Hard Data for Mexico and Brazil (Publication Centre)

LatAm governments and central banks have been busy implementing additional measures to contain the spread of the virus, and acting rapidly to ease the effect on the economy.

25 March 2019 The Fundamentals are at Odds with the Curve, no Recession Near (Publication Centre)

The commentariat was very excited Friday by the inversion of the curve, with three-year yields dipping to 2.24% while three-month bills yield 2.45%.

25 May 2017 Balance Sheet Run-off set to Start in the Fall, but Slowly (Publication Centre)

The FOMC minutes confirmed that most FOMC members were not swayed by the weak-looking first quarter GDP numbers or the soft March core CPI. Both are considered likely to prove "transitory", and the underlying economic outlook is little changed from March.

25 Nov 2019 Inflation in Brazil and Mexico is Easing, No Immediate Threats Here (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the biggest economies in the region remains close to cyclical lows, allowing central banks to ease even further over the next few months.

25 Nov 2019 Deferring the December 15 Tariffs is not Alone Enough to Lift Growth (Publication Centre)

The weaker is the economy over the next few months, the more likely it is that Mr. Trump blinks and removes some--perhaps even all--the tariffs on Chinese imports.

25 May 2018 Germany Slowed in Q1, but what Happened to Private Demand? (Publication Centre)

The headline in yesterday's detailed Q1 German GDP data was old news, confirming that growth in the euro area's largest economy slowed at the start of the year.

25 October 2017 September Durable Orders are Hard to Call, Thanks to the Hurricanes (Publication Centre)

We have been very encouraged in recent months to see core capital goods orders breaking to the upside, relative to the trend implied by the path of oil prices.

25 October 2018 Winter is Coming for the British Housing Market (Publication Centre)

Mortgage approvals by the main high street banks dropped to a five-month low of 38.5K in September, from 39.2K in August, according to trade body U.K.Finance.

26 July 2017 Preliminary GDP to Confirm Growth Remained Sluggish in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Today's preliminary estimate of GDP likely will show that the economy continued to struggle in response to high inflation, further fiscal austerity and Brexit uncertainty.

26 Feb 2020 Time for a Further Downgrade of Chinese Q1 GDP (Publication Centre)

In our Webinar--see here--we laid out scenarios for Chinese GDP in Q1 and for this year.

26 Feb 2020 The Fed's "Too Soon to Tell" Line Won't Hold if Markets Keep Falling (Publication Centre)

The spread of the Covid-19 virus remains the key issue for markets, which were deeply unhappy yesterday at reports of new cases in Austria, Spain and Switzerland, all of which appear to be connected to the cluster in northern Italy.

26 July 2018 The Climate Still isn't Right for Mortgage Lending to Recover (Publication Centre)

House purchase mortgage approvals by the main high street banks continued to recover in June, rising to a nine-month high of 40.5K, from 39.5K in May. June approvals, however, merely matched their postreferendum average, and the chances of a more substantial recovery are slim.

26 July 2018 Today Will be a Copy Paste Job for Mr. Draghi and the ECB (Publication Centre)

Last month, the ECB set the scene for the majority of its key policy decisions over the next 12 months.

26 June 2020 Sterling Unlikely to Break Out Decisively from its Recent Range (Publication Centre)

Sterling's rough first half of this year--cable has depreciated to $1.24, from $1.33 at the end of 2019--is hard to reconcile with its normal macroeconomic determinants.

26 June 2020 German Consumption is on the Mend, but Q2 won't be Pretty (Publication Centre)

Looking beyond the potential hit from the lockdown in North Rhine-Westphalia, German consumer sentiment is improving steadily.

26 June 2019 Durable Goods Orders Under Pressure, but no Meltdown (Publication Centre)

I need to ask your indulgence today, because the release of the durable goods and advance international trade reports coincides with my elder daughter's college graduation ceremony.

26 Feb 2020 Germany Faces Coronavirus Uncertainty in a Weakened State (Publication Centre)

The German economy finished last year on the back foot.

26 Feb 2020 Britain Less Vulnerable than Most to a Coronavirus-led Downturn (Publication Centre)

News that the Covid-19 virus has spread to more countries frayed investors' nerves further yesterday, with the FTSE 100 eventually residing 5.3% below its Friday close.

26 April 2018 March Trade and Durable Orders Data to Boost Q1 GDP Forecasts? (Publication Centre)

The key data today, covering March durable goods orders and international trade in goods, should both beat consensus forecasts.

26 Apr. 2016 Aircraft Will Lift March Durables, but Early Easter Will Depress Core (Publication Centre)

The good news in today's March durable goods report is that a rebound in orders for Boeing aircraft means February's 3.0% drop in headline orders won't be repeated. The company reported orders for 69 aircraft in March, compared to just one in February.

25 Sept 2019 More Bad News from the IFO, but the INSEE Data are More Upbeat (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's business confidence data in the EZ core were mixed.

26 Aug 2019 Powell's Speech no Match for the Blizzard of Trump Tweets (Publication Centre)

After three days of jaw-dropping actions from President Trump, the position seems to be this: The U.S. will apply 15% tariffs on imported Chinese consumer goods, rather than the previously promised 10%, effective in two stages on September 1 and December 15.

26 Aug 2020 Capex is Rising, but it Won't Recover its Losses in the Foreseeable Future (Publication Centre)

After two hefty month-to-month increases, durable goods orders ex-transportation now stand only 3.9% below their January pre-Covid peak.

26 Aug 2020 Inflation and External Accounts Remain Under Control in Brazil (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in Brazil are well under control, with the August mid-month reading falling more than expected, allowing the BCB to cut interest rates in the near term if needed.

26 Aug 2020 Germany's Economy Dodged a Bullet in H1, Relatively Speaking (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed Q2 GDP report in Germany confirmed that economic output nosedived during lockdown, but also showed that the economy was resilient compared to the rest of the EZ.

25 Mar 2020 GDP Likely is Falling Much Faster than Even the Gloomy PMIs Imply (Publication Centre)

Even the record-breaking slump in Markit's composite PMI probably understates the hit to economic activity from Covid-19 and the emergency measures to slow its spread.

25 June. 2015 Germany Needs Stronger Private Investment to Drive the Recovery (Publication Centre)

The chaos in Greece was identified as the main culprit for yesterday's soft IFO report. The headline business climate index fell to 107.4 in July, down from 108.1 in May, driven by declines in respondents' views on the current economy and their expectations for the future. We expected a dip in the he adline IFO, but we were surprised by the fall in the manufacturing sub-index, given the firmer PMI earlier this week.

24 March 2017 Q1 Consumption will be Weak, Despite February's Retail Recovery (Publication Centre)

The 1.4% month-to-month rise in retail sales volumes in February is not a game-changer for the economy's growth prospects in Q1. The increase reversed just under half of the 2.9% decline between October and January. The 1.5% fall in retail sales in the three months to February, compared to the previous three months, is the worst result in seven years.

24 June 2020 Department Stores are Struggling, Do People Feel Unsafe at the Mall (Publication Centre)

Chainstores are continuing to struggle, even as the reopening of the economy continues.

24 June 2019 Further Evidence of Stabilisation in EZ Growth from the PMIs (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance PMI data for the Eurozone added further evidence of stabilisation in the economy after the sharp slowdown in GDP growth since the beginning of last year.

24 May 2018 April's Inflation Data aren't a Blow to August Rate Hike Chances (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation dropped to 2.4% in April, from 2.5% in March, undershooting the no-change consensus and prompting many commentators to argue that the chances of an August rate hike have declined further.

24 May 2019 Boeing's Woes are Hitting Durable Goods Orders - the Core is OK, Just (Publication Centre)

A grim-looking headline durable goods orders number for April seems inevitable today, given the troubles at Boeing.

24 November 2017 Slowdown in German Domestic Demand Will Reverse in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed GDP report in Germany showed net exports propelled GDP growth to a cyclical high last quarter.

24 Nov 2020 The EZ Economy is Shrinking, Again, What Happens Next (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance EZ PMI data were just about as grim as we had been expecting.

24 Nov 2020 No Need to Rewrite Forecasts After November's Above-Consensus PMI (Publication Centre)

We're not rushing to revise our assessment of the scale of the economic damage wrought by the second lockdown, following the above-consensus reading of Markit's flash composite PMI in November.

24 July 2020 Will the Fed Step-up the Pace of QE as Issuance Surges Again (Publication Centre)

If Congress passes another Covid relief bill early next month, as we fully expect, it will have to be financed quickly via increased debt issuance.

24 July 2020 U.K. Equities are Becoming Ever More Unloved, Chiefly Due to Brexit (Publication Centre)

U.K. equities are falling ever further out of favour.

24 January 2017 The Boost to Disposable Incomes from Mortgage Refinancing is Fading (Publication Centre)

The steady decline in mortgage rates since the financial crisis has helped to underpin strong growth in household spending. Existing borrowers have been able to refinance loans at ever-lower interest rates, while the proportion of first-time buyers' incomes absorbed by interest and capital payments has declined to a record low. As a result, the proportion of annual household incomes taken up by interest payments has fallen to 4.6%, from a peak of 10% in 2008.

24 Jan 2020 How Soon will the Chancellor Use his Ample Fiscal Headroom? (Publication Centre)

The public finances are in better health than appeared to be the case a few months ago.

24 Jan 2020 Don't Worry About the Downshift in Bank Lending to Businesses, it Lags (Publication Centre)

You could be forgiven for being alarmed at the 1.5% decline in the stock of outstanding bank commercial and industrial lending in the fourth quarter, the first dip since the second quarter of 2017.

24 January 2018 Existing Home Sales Likely Dropped in December, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

In November, existing home sales substantially overshot the pace implied by the pending home sales index.

24 January 2018 Government Bonds Can Cope With an End to QE. Can C orporates? (Publication Centre)

Bond markets didn't panic when the ECB announced its intention further to reduce the pace of QE this year, to €30B per month from €60B in 2017.

24 July 2020 Inflation in Mexico Rose in July, but the Recession will Ease Pressures (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Mexico surprised to the upside in early Q3, but we still believe it will fall gradually in Q4.

24 July 2019 Why are Cash Buyers Abandoning the Existing Homes Market (Publication Centre)

The sluggishness of existing home sales in recent months, as exemplified by yesterday's report of a small dip in June, is due entirely to a sharp drop in the number of cash buyers.

24 Oct 2019 A Standing Ovation for Mr. Draghi Today as he Departs the ECB (Publication Centre)

Today's ECB meeting will mainly be a victory lap for Mr. Draghi--it is the president's last meeting before Ms. Lagarde takes over--rather than the scene of any major new policy decisions.

24 Oct 2019 Which Fork in the Road Will the PM Take? (Publication Centre)

The PM now is at a fork in the road and will have to decide in the coming days whether to risk all and seek a general election, or restart the process of trying to get the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--through parliament.

25 February 2019 Manufacturing Continues to Weaken, no Floor Yet in Sight (Publication Centre)

Last week's data added yet more weight to our view that manufacturing is in deep trouble, and that the bottom has not yet been reached.

25 Feb 2020 The Fed will Blink if Markets have Many More Days Like Yesterday (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's stock market bloodbath stands in contrast to the U.S. economic data, most of which so far show no impact from the Covid-19 outbreak.

25 Feb 2020 Markets Look Complacent About the Outcome of E.U. Trade Talks (Publication Centre)

We find it remarkable, after the market volatility induced by the two Brexit deadlines in 2019, that investors do not foresee another bump in the road at the end of this ye ar, when the Brexit transition period is due to end.

25 July 2019 A Recovery in Mortgage Lending is Taking Root (Publication Centre)

The recent pick-up in mortgage approvals is another sign that households are unperturbed by the risk of a no-deal Brexit.

25 June 2019 New Home Sales Set for a Steady Summer, but New Highs in the Fall (Publication Centre)

We are fundamentally quite bullish on the housing market, given the 100bp drop in mortgage rates over the past six months and the continued strength of the labor market, but today's May new home sales report likely will be unexciting.

25 June 2020 Upside Risk for May Durable Goods, but it's Mostly Noise, not Signal (Publication Centre)

The headline May durable goods orders numbers today probably will look very strong, with the odds favoring a much bigger increase than the 10.1% consensus; we'll come back to that.

25 June 2020 All Eyes on Germany's Data for a Hit from the NRW Lockdown (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national business confidence data for June provided further evidence that the EZ economy is rebounding.

25 June 2020 A Mixed Early Picture of Unlock 1.0 in India, Downside Risks Prevail (Publication Centre)

Some normality has returned in India, more than three weeks from the end of the nationwide lockdown and the start of "Unlock 1.0" on June 1.

25 August. 2016 Weak Mortgage Approvals Point to Falling House Prices Ahead (Publication Centre)

July's mortgage approvals data from the BBA brought clear evidence that households have held off making major financial commitments as a result of the Brexit vote. Following a 5% month-to-month fall in June, approvals fell a further 5.3% in July, leaving them at their lowest level since January 2015 and down 19% year-over-year.

25 August 2017 Yellen to Talk on Financial Stability, But Might Refer to Policy too (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen speaks at Jackson Hole today, at 10:00 Eastern. Her topic is billed as "financial stability", but that does not necessarily preclude remarks on the outlook for the economy and policy.

24 Sept 2019 September Retail Sales Enjoying a Temporary Tariff-Beating Boost? (Publication Centre)

The rational thing to do when the price of a consumer good you are considering buying is thought likely to rise sharply in the near future is to buy it now, provided that the opportunity cost of the purchase--the interest income foregone on the cash, or the interest charged if you finance the purchase with credit--is less than the expected increase in the price.

24 October 2018 September New Home Sales Likely Hit by Hurricane Michael (Publication Centre)

The path of new home sales over the past couple of years has followed the mortgage applications numbers quite closely.

24 October 2018 EZ Households Face Uncertainty, Despite Solid Fundamentals (Publication Centre)

Consumer confidence in the Eurozone rose marginally at the start of Q4, though it is still down since the start of the year.

25 April 2017A Government Shutdown Would Say More About Politics Than Economics (Publication Centre)

A shutdown of the federal government, which could happen as early as this weekend, is a political event rather than a macroeconomic shock. But if it happens--if Congress cannot agree on even a shortterm stop-gap spending measure in order to keep the lights on after the 28th--it would demonstrate yet again that the splits in the House mean that the prospects of a substantial near-term loosening of fiscal policy are now very slim.

25 April 2018 Brazil's Labour Market Recovery Has Lost Momentum, but it will Improve (Publication Centre)

In Brazil, last week's formal payroll employment report for March was decent, with employment increasing by 56K, well above the consensus expectation for a 48K gain.

25 Aug 2020 Strong Home Sales Coming, but Threats to the Rebound Increasing (Publication Centre)

We have been bullish about the housing market for some time now--since Google searches for "new homes" and mortgage demand began to pick up, in late April--but we might not have been bullish enough.

25 Aug 2020 Covid Cases are Easing in Mexico Supporting a Soft Economic Upturn (Publication Centre)

New Covid-19 cases in Mexico have continued to fall steadily over this month, with deaths peaking two weeks ago, as shown in our first chart.

26 Mar 2020 Substantial Upside Risk for Jobless Claims, we Expect 3.5 Million (Publication Centre)

The consensus for today's first post-apocalypse jobless claims number, 1,500K, looks much too low.

26 March 2019 Consumers are Cash-Rich and Confident Don't Worry About Them (Publication Centre)

When Fed Chair Powell said last week that the "surprise" weakness in the official retail sales numbers is "inconsistent with a significant amount of other data", we're guessing that he had in mind a couple of reports which will be updated today.

27 Sept 2019 Tempering Our Optimism on the Industrial Rebound in Q3 (Publication Centre)

We're revising down our forecast for quarteron-quarter GDP growth in Q3 to 0.3%, from 0.4%, in response to signs that the rebound in industrial production is shaping up to b e smaller than we had anticipated.

27 Sept 2019 Core PCE Inflation is Set to Breach the Target in Q1, as Tariffs Bite (Publication Centre)

All eyes today will be on the core PCE deflator for August, which we think probably rose by a solid 0.2%.

27 October 2017 Korean GDP Rebounds on Exports and Mr. Moon's Fiscal Spending (Publication Centre)

Korean real GDP growth rebounded to 1.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.6% in Q2. The main driver was exports, with government consumption also popping, and private consumption was a little faster than we were expecting.

27 September 2017 Yellen is Following the Tightening Labor Market, it's Telling her to Hike (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen's speech in Cleveland yesterday elaborated on the key themes from last week's FOMC meeting.

27 September 2018 Mortgage Lending will Keep Trending Down as Brexit Nears (Publication Centre)

August's mortgage lending data from the trade body U.K. Finance provided more evidence that the pick-up in housing market activity in Q2 simply reflected a shift from Q1 due to the disruptive weather, rather than the emergence of a sustainable upward trend.

28 Feb 2020 Sterling won't Be a Safe Haven if Covid-19 Triggers a Global Slump (Publication Centre)

The Covid-19 outbreak has rattled equity markets, but has not had a major bearing on DM currencies, yet.

28 Aug 2019 A Few Bright Spots in an Overall Grim Q2 German GDP Report (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed GDP data in Germany confirmed that the economy shrank slightly in the second quarter, by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, following the 0.4% increase in Q1.

28 April 2017 Preliminary GDP Estimate Likely to Reveal Q1 Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP looks set to show that the economy started 2017 on a weak footing. We share the consensus view that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth slowed to 0.4%, from 0.7% in Q4.

27 Oct 2020 Japan is Trying to "Live with Covid", but Spending is Hitting a Ceiling (Publication Centre)

Japan and Korea dealt with their second waves of Covid-19 in the third quarter in completely different ways.

27 Oct 2020 Controlling the Virus will Cost EZ Q4 GDP Growth Dearly (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, yesterday's IFO in Germany confirmed the main message from last week's PMIs.

27 Nov 2020 The Three-Tier System will Prevent a Full GDP Rebound in December (Publication Centre)

This month's lockdown has begun to crush the second wave of Covid-19. The seven-day rolling average of cases on November 25 was 27% lower than seven days earlier.

27 Nov 2020 The BoK's Challenge in 2021 is Managing Rate Hike Expectations (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday left its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 0.50%, as widely expected.

27 Nov 2019 The GM Strike Likely Depressed October Orders, Core Soft too? (Publication Centre)

Today's wave of data will bring new information on the industrial sector, consumers, the labor market, and housing, as well as revisions to the third quarter GDP numbers.

27 November 2017 The Outlook for Consumers' Spending is Deteriorating (Publication Centre)

Developments over the last month have heightened our concern about the near-term outlook for households' spending.

27 November 2017 Economic Growth Set to Rise Next Year, but Pain Will Follow in 2019 (Publication Centre)

We have argued for some time that the revival in nonoil capex represents clear upside risk for GDP growth next year, but it's now time to make this our base case.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing (Publication Centre)

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7% second quarter plunge.

27 November 2018 Japan's Flash PMI Puts a Q4 GDP Rebound into Serious Doubt (Publication Centre)

Japan's flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI report for November was abysmal, putting the chances of a recovery this quarter into serious doubt.

28 Feb 2020 The Fed Can't Stand by as Markets Melt, Expect Easing at Any Time (Publication Centre)

The Fed will soon have to step in to try to put a firebreak in the stock market.

28 February 2019 Expect Underwhelming Q4 GDP Growth Data Today Q1 Likely Worse (Publication Centre)

We expect to learn today that the economy expanded at a 2.1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, slowing from 3.4% in the third.

28 May 2019 Count on Consumers to Drag the Economy Through the Brexit Mess (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister's resignation and the stillborn launch of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill last week has forced us to revise our Brexit base case, from a soft E.U. departure on October 31 to continued paralysis.

28 June 2019 Banxico Dials Down its Hawkish Rhetoric, it Will Have to Ease Soon (Publication Centre)

Mexican policymakers voted to leave the main rate on hold at 8.25% yesterday, as inflation remains high--though falling--and the economy is stuttering.

28 June 2018 Second Quarter Growth is on Track to be a Blockbuster (Publication Centre)

The decline in headline durable goods orders in May, reported yesterday, doesn't matter.

28 May 2019 Raising the Alarm on German Private Investment in Q2 and Q3 (Publication Centre)

We covered the detailed German Q1 GDP report in Friday's Monitor--see here--but the investment data could do with closer inspection. The headline numbers looked great.

28 May 2020 Downward Pressure on Wages will Hold Down Inflation (Publication Centre)

Beyond the immediate wild swings in prices for food, clothing, hotel rooms and airline fares, the medium-term impact of the Covid outbreak on U.S. inflation will depend substantially on the impact on the pace of wage growth.

28 November 2018 Argentina's Near-term Outlook is Murky, But 2019 Will be Better (Publication Centre)

Argentina's near-term economic outlook remains murky, as recent data has highlighted, hit by tighter financial conditions.

28 Nov 2019 Spare a Thank You for the Strong and Stable French Consumer (Publication Centre)

French consumers remained in great spirits midway through the fourth quarter. The headline INSEE consumer confidence index jumped to a 28-month high in November, from 104 in October, extending its v-shaped recovery from last year's plunge on the back of the yellow vest protests.

28 Nov 2019 Record Registrations Hint the Youth Vote Will Surprise to the Upside Again (Publication Centre)

The deadline for registering to vote in the general election passed on Tuesday, with a record 660K people registering on the final day.

28 June 2018 Real M1 Still Points to Slower GDP Growth, Despite a Rebound in May (Publication Centre)

Money supply growth in the Eurozone rebounded slightly last month, reversing some of the weakness at the start of the year.

28 July 2020 Supply-Side Indicators Paint a Grim Picture of Japan's Second Quarter (Publication Centre)

The downturn in Japan's all-industry activity index slowed in May to -3.5% month-on-month, from April's significantly revised 7.6% plunge.

28 Jan 2020 Germany Can't Catch a Break, The IFO Still Signals Very Slow Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO data reversed the good vibes sent by last week's upbeat German PMIs.

28 Jan 2020 Containment Measures Could Mean a Quarterly Fall in Chinese GDP (Publication Centre)

As the situation with the coronavirus develops, and we gain more information on the authorities' response, it's becoming clear that the damage to Q1 GDP is going to be nasty.

28 Jan 2020 A Real Housing Market Recovery is Finally Taking Root (Publication Centre)

Housebuilders were one of the biggest winners from the post-election relief rally in U.K. equity prices.

28 Jan 2020 Mexican Consumers' Spending Fell in Q4, but Should Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

All the evidence indicates that growth in Mexican consumers' spending is slowing, despite the better- than-expected November retail sales numbers, released yesterday.

28 July 2020 Congressional Face-Off Could Delay the Next Relief Bill Until September (Publication Centre)

House Democrats and Senate Republicans are so far apart on both the structure and the size of the next Coronavirus relief package that it's hard to see a bill passing Congress in less than a couple weeks or so, and it could easily take longer.

28 July 2020 Restaurants are Not as Full as OpenTable Data Suggest (Publication Centre)

Tracking the consumer services sector has become more important since Covid-19, as it was flattened by the lockdown in Q2 and it might prove to be an incubator of new infections, if it becomes too busy.

28 July 2020 Mexico's Volatile Trade Balance, Consequences of Chile's Reform (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday in Mexico highlighted the volatility in international trade resulting from the pandemic.

27 Nov 2019 The German Consumer is Doing Fine, but Risks Loom in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report in the EZ showed that consumer sentiment in Germany improved mid-way through the fourth quarter.

27 Nov 2019 Housing Market Activity will Spring Back Early Next Year (Publication Centre)

Political uncertainty is starting to dampen housing market activity again.

26 September 2017 Is the Most Important Data--Wage Growth--Forecastable? (Publication Centre)

Markets will be hyper-sensitive to U.K. data releases following the MPC's warning that it is on the verge of raising interest rates.

26 September 2016 PMIs Point to Slower EZ GDP Growth, but Details are Confusing (Publication Centre)

Friday's PMI data in the Eurozone added to the evidence that GDP growth is slowing, after a cyclical peak last year. The composite PMI in the euro area slipped to a 21-month low of 52.6 in September, from 52.9 in August.

26 Sept 2019 The Macro Impact of the End of PPI Compensation Will Be Small (Publication Centre)

Households' disposable incomes have been supported over the last eight years by a steady stream of compensation payments for Payment Protection Insurance--PPI--policies that were missold in the 1990s and 2000s.

27 April 2018 The Likely Q1 GDP Growth Slowdown Probably Didn't Happen (Publication Centre)

The first point to make about today's Q1 GDP growth number is that whatever the BEA publishes, you probably should add 0.9 percentage points.

27 Aug 2019 Trump is Making it Impossible for China to Negotiate (Publication Centre)

It's pretty clear now that the President is not a reliable guide to what's actually happening in the China trade war, or what will happen in the future.

27 Feb 2020 Yesterday's Measures from China Help Avert Full-Blown Debt Crisis (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's State Council meeting significantly expanded support to the economy, through a number of channels.

27 Feb 2020 Non-China Covid-19 Spread is Slowing but Big Market Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of Covid-19 cases outside China appears to have peaked, for now, but we can't yet have any confidence that this represents a definitive shift in the progress of the epidemic.

27 Aug 2020 Don't Put too Much Stock into Korea's August Confidence Indices (Publication Centre)

It looks as though business and consumer confidence in Korea has brushed off the economic threat of the second Covid-19 wave.

26 October 2018 Plunging Korean Investment Activity Cancels-out Gains Elsewhere in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Korea's GDP growth in Q3 was a miss. Quarter- on-quarter growth was unchanged at 0.6%, below the consensus for a 0.8% rise.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises (Publication Centre)

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three months.

26 Nov 2019 The IFO in Germany Still Tells a Story of Imminent Recession (Publication Centre)

The November IFO report suggests that the headline indices are on track for a tepid recovery in Q4 as a whole, but the central message is still one of downside risks to growth

26 Nov 2019 The Export Collapse Signalled by the Late Summer ISM has been Averted (Publication Centre)

We were terrified by the plunge in the ISM manufacturing export orders index in August and September, which appeared to point to a 2008-style meltdown in trade flows.

26 May 2020 What are High Frequency Data telling us about the EZ Recovey (Publication Centre)

The official data lag developments in the real economy even at the best of times, but on this occasion the gap has turned into a chasm.

26 Nov 2019 Three Reasons to Remain Open- Minded About the Election Result (Publication Centre)

The Conservatives have continued to gain ground over the last week, with support averaging 43% across the 13 opinion polls conducted last week, up from 41% in the previous week.

26 November 2018 Tariffs are Hurting the U.S. and China Escalation Would be Excruciating (Publication Centre)

It is becomingly increasingly clear that the trade war with China is hurting manufacturers in both countries.

26 Oct 2020 Outright CPI Deflation in Japan is Here, Expect an Exit by Mid-2021 (Publication Centre)

Outright CPI deflation likely already has taken hold in Japan. Friday's data showed inflation falling to zero percent in September, from 0.2% in the previous month.

26 Oct 2020 EZ Q4 GDP Growth Forecasts Fall, the Only Question is, How Much? (Publication Centre)

The headline EZ data added to the evidence of a weakening recovery while we were away.

27 February 2019 Mrs. May's No-Deal Brexit U-turn Demonstrates Remainers' Leverage (Publication Centre)

Sterling has appreciated sharply over the last two weeks and yesterday briefly touched its highest level against the euro since May 2017.

27 Jan 2020 CPI Health Insurance is Unstable, But Rapid Gains are More Likely than Not (Publication Centre)

Forecasting the health insurance component of the CPI is a mug's game, so you'll look in vain for hard projections in this note.

27 June 2019 Orders, Trade and Inventory Data Suggest Q2 Growth Headed for 21⁄4% (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's raft of data had no net impact on our forecast for second quarter GDP growth, which we still think will be about 21⁄4%.

27 June 2019 Mortgage Lending Likely to Remain Impervious to Brexit Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

Data from trade body U.K. Finance show that mortgage lending has remained unyielding in the face of heightened economic and political uncertainty.

27 June 2019 Are Rising Jobless Claims a Drag on German Consumer Sentiment (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's consumer sentiment data provided further evidence of a strengthening French economy, amid signs of cracks in the otherwise solid German economy.

27 Mar 2020 How to Track the Incoming Crunch in the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

The EZ economy's liquidity gears were well-oiled coming into the crisis.

27 Mar 2020 Jobless Claims Crystallize the Covid Disaster, More Pain to Come (Publication Centre)

The speculation is over: 3.283 million people filed a new claim for unemployment benefits last week, nearly double the 1.7M consensus forecast, which looked much too low.

27 May 2020 Japan's April Activity Likely Dropped off a Cliff, How Bad was it (Publication Centre)

Japan's all-industry activity index dropped by 3.8% month-on-month in March, worse than the 0.7% slip in February.

27 May 2020 Is it Time for Germany to Lead the Eurozone Economy Again (Publication Centre)

This week's detailed Q1 GDP data confirmed that the German economy is in dire straits, alongside its euro area peers, but there's a silver lining.

27 Mar 2020 Pre-Virus Q1 Data in Brazil and Mexico Supported More Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus pandemic looks set to spread rapidly throughout LatAm.

27 June 2018 Aircraft Set to Depress May Durable Orders, but the Core Story is Better (Publication Centre)

We were wrong about headline durable goods orders in April, because the civilian aircraft component behaved very strangely.

27 July 2020 Don't Be Fooled by Temporary Strength in Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

June's surge in retail sales is not a sign that households' total spending is zipping back to pre- downturn levels.

27 Jan 2020 Who are the Biggest Casualties of China's Travel Curbs (Publication Centre)

On Friday last week, the Chinese authorities suspended sales of domestic and international tours, in an effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus, which started in Wuhan.

27 Jan 2020 The PMI Rebound Should Suffice for the MPC to Stand its Ground (Publication Centre)

The recovery in the composite PMI to 52.4 in January, from 49.3 in December, should convince a majority of MPC members to vote on Thursday to maintain Bank Rate at 0.75%.

27 Jan 2020 The EZ PMIs were Soft in January, but the German Data were Solid (Publication Centre)

Friday's PMI data were a mixed bag.

27 January 2017 Q4 Growth Likely Hit by Foreign Trade, Temporarily (Publication Centre)

We expect to learn today that the economy expanded at a 1.7% rate in the fourth quarter. At least, that's our forecast, based on incomplete data, and revisions over time could easily push growth significantly away from this estimate. The inherent unreliability of the GDP numbers, which can be revised forever--literally--explains why the Fed puts so much more emphasis on the labor market data, which are volatile month-to-month but more trustworthy over longer periods and subject to much smaller revisions.

27 July 2017 GDP Growth Will Remain Weak in 2017, Keeping the MPC Inactive (Publication Centre)

GDP rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, according to the ONS' preliminary estimate, confirming that the economy has fundamentally slowed since the Brexit vote. The modest growth has reduced further the already-small risk that the MPC will raise interest rates at its next meeting on August 3.

27 July 2020 Low Inflation in Brazil will Allow the Copom to Cut Rates in August (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday in Brazil and recent political events helped to open the door further to a final rate cut in August. The IPCA-15--which previews the full CPI-- rose 0.3% month-to-month in July, well below market expectations, 0.5%.

27 July 2020 Economic Momentum has Stalled, GDP Could Easily Fall in August (Publication Centre)

With just five days of July remaining, it seems likely that the trends in most of the key near-real-time indicators will end the month close to the levels seen at the end of June.

24 February 2017 German Economy did Well in Q4, but What Happened to Net Trade? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed German GDP report raised more questions than it answered. The headline confirmed that growth accelerated to 0.4% quarteron- quarter in Q4, from 0.1% in Q3, leaving the year-over- year rate unchanged at 1.7%.

24 February 2017 Did the Warmer-than-Usual January Lift New Home Sales? (Publication Centre)

New home sales have tended to track the path of mortgage applications over the past year or so, with a lag of a few months. The message for today's January sales numbers, show in our next chart, is that sales likely dipped a bit, to about 525K.

2 Oct 2020 Why Haven't Core Consumer Goods Prices Fallen Yet? (Publication Centre)

Higher core goods inflation is one of the main reasons why the headline rate of CPI inflation has exceeded economists' forecasts over the last few months.

2 Oct 2020 Decent September Payrolls don't Guarantee a Repeat in October (Publication Centre)

We look for a 950K increase in September private payrolls, more than the 700K or so implied by the Homebase daily employment data but consistent with ADP, assuming it has undershot the official numbers for a sixth straight month.

2 Oct 2019 Stockbuilding Offers Producers Relief from the Global Slowdown (Publication Centre)

Renewed stockpiling ahead of the October Brexit deadline finally appears to be providing some near-term support to manufacturing output.

2 October 2017 Will the Real Eurozone Core CPI Measure Please Stand Up? (Publication Centre)

Friday's inflation data in the Eurozone added a dovish twist to the story ahead of the key ECB meeting later this month.

2 Sep 2020 Soft August CPI Data will Push the ECB to Lift the PEPP This Month (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a busy day in the EZ

20 Dec 2019 French Business Sentiment Shows no Hit from Strikes in December (Publication Centre)

The INSEE business sentiment data in France continue to tell a story of a robust economy.

20 Dec 2019 Expect a Benign November Core PCE, but Change is Coming in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Under normal circumstances, the 0.23% increase in the core CPI, reported earlier this month, would be enough to ensure a 0.2% print in today's core PCE deflator.

20 Aug 2019 Third Quarter Growth Looks OK on the Surface Details Less Good (Publication Centre)

Halfway through the third quarter, we have no objection to the idea that GDP growth likely will exceed 2% for the third straight quarter.

2 November 2018 October Payrolls are Hurricane-Wild, but AHE is Headed for 3%-plus (Publication Centre)

Don't bet the farm on today's October payroll numbers, which will be hopelessly--and unpredictably-- compromised by the impact of hurricanes Florence and Michael.

2 November 2018 Ignore the October Surge in Korean Exports, but Take Heed of Imports (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade data have been extremely volatile over the past two months, thanks to distortions caused by last year's odd holiday calendar.

2 Mar 2020 Will the BoE be Swept Along in the Global Rush to Ease? (Publication Centre)

Investors moved rapidly last week to price-in renewed easing by central banks around the world, in response to the rapid growth in coronavirus cases outside China and the resulting sell-off in equity markets.

2 Mar 2020 Cyclical Improvement in Brazil's Unemployment, but Threats Rising (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that the downward trend in Brazil's unemployment continued into this year. The unadjusted unemployment rate fell to 11.2% in January, slightly below the consensus, and down from 12.0% in January last year.

2 Mar 2020 Covid-19 Cases Accelerating Outside the Four Major Outbreaks (Publication Centre)

The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing at a faster rate, though 89% of the new cases reported Saturday were in China, South Korea, Italy and Iran.

2 March 2018 January Money Data Suggest the Economy remains Listless (Publication Centre)

January's money and credit data broadly support our view that the economy still lacks momentum.

2 May 2019 Powell Pushes Back on Low Q1 Inflation Fed Base Case Unchanged (Publication Centre)

The Fed yesterday acknowledged clearly the new economic information of recent months, namely, that first quarter GDP growth was "solid", with Chair Powell noting that it was stronger than most forecasters expected.

2 Nov 2020 The Covid Surge is Accelerating (Publication Centre)

After 99.3K new Covid cases on Friday and 81.2K Saturday, and a further 1,279K net new hospitalizations, the U.S. is beginning to look alarmingly like several large European countries, where steady but relatively modest increases in new cases suddenly exploded into exponential growth in mid-October.

2 Nov 2020 The Covid Crisis in LatAm is Easing, but the Risk of a Second Wave is Real (Publication Centre)

While we were out, new Covid-19 cases continued to increase in Brazil and Colombia. The latest uptick in Mexico's cases seems to be peaking, though the data are not reliable, due to the country's low test activity.

20 Dec 2019 Retailers aren't Really Having a Nightmare Before Christmas (Publication Centre)

The run of weak retail sales figures continued yesterday, with the release of November's official data.

20 Feb 2020 Domestically-Generated Inflation Will Rise Further, Ruling Out a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate by June fell to 34%, from 38%, after the release of January's consumer price figures, though investors still see around an 80% chance of a cut by the end of this year.

20 May 2019 Soaring Sales at Discounters Explain the Strong Redbook, Mostly (Publication Centre)

We have been puzzled in recent months by the sudden and substantial divergence between the Redbook chainstore sales numbers and the official data.

20 March 2019 The MPC Can't Ignore Rapidly- Rising Unit Wage Costs for Long (Publication Centre)

While financial markets remain obsessed with the Brexit saga, January's labour market data provided more evidence yesterday that the economy is coping well with the heightened uncertainty.

20 March 2019 More Noise than Signal in the Monthly EZ Construction Data (Publication Centre)

Construction in the EZ stumbled at the start of the year.

20 May 2020 Wages to Fall Outright as Labour Market Slack Accumulates (Publication Centre)

We hope never to see another labour market report as bad as yesterday's, though the omens aren't good.

20 Nov 2019 EZ Construction has Stalled, but Expect a Rebound in H1 2020 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's headline economic data in the euro area were solid across the board, though the details were mixed.

20 Nov 2020 Chile's Growth Rebounded in Q3, but did not Reverse all the Covid Hit (Publication Centre)

Data released this week confirmed that Q3 real GDP growth in the Andes rebounded sharply, on a sequential basis, as the region's economies gradually reopened.

20 Nov 2019 Which Leading Indicator of Core Goods Inflation Should be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators are giving conflicting signals regarding the outlook for core goods CPI inflation.

20 Nov 2019 Housing Construction is Trending Higher, Further Gains Ahead (Publication Centre)

The recent increases in single-family housing construction are consistent with the rise in new home sales, triggered by the substantial fall in mortgage rates over the past year.

20 Mar 2020 The Fed is Now Intervening Across the Board, Almost, Good (Publication Centre)

The Fed's announcement, at 11.30pm Wednesday, that it will establish a Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility--MMLF--to support prime money market funds, is another step to limit the emerging credit crunch triggered by the virus.

20 June 2019 All Eyes on Osaka, if the Trade Talks Succeed, the Fed Won't Ease in July (Publication Centre)

The tone of Fed Chair Powell's opening comments at the press conference yesterday was much more dovish than the statement, which did little more than most analysts expected.

20 Jan 2020 The ECB Won't Flinch Over the Q4 Jump in EZ Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Friday's detailed euro area CPI report for December confirmed that inflation pushed higher at the end of last year. Headline inflation increased to 1.3% year-over- year, from 1.0% in November, lifted primarily by higher energy inflation, rising by 3.4pp, to +0.2%. Inflation in food, alcohol and tobacco also rose, albeit marginally, to 2.1%, from 2.0% in November.

20 Jan 2020 Weak December Sales Are Noise, Consumer Fundamentals are Solid (Publication Centre)

Expectations that the MPC will cut Bank Rate at its meeting on January 30 received a further shot in the arm at the end of last week, when December's retail sales figures were released.

20 February 2019 Robust Labour Market Implies MPC Won't Dally After Brexit Risks Fade (Publication Centre)

Signs of a slowdown in the labour market data are conspicuously absent.

20 January 2017 Are Layoffs Really Falling Again, Signalling Stronger Payroll Gains? (Publication Centre)

After three straight lower-than-expected jobless claims numbers, we have to consider, at least, the idea that maybe the trend is falling again. This would be a remarkable development, given that claims already are at their lowest level ever, when adjusted for population growth, and at their lowest absolute level since the early 1970s.

20 January 2017 Retail Sales Likely Finished the Fourth Quarter on a Softer Note (Publication Centre)

Today's official figures likely will show that retail sales weakened a touch in December. Indeed, we think that the consensus forecast for a 0.1% month-to-month decline in sales volumes is too timid; we look for a 0.5% drop. Retail sales surged by 1.8% month-to-month in October and then rose by 0.2% in November, so a correction is overdue. Clothing sales, in particular, likely fell sharply in December.

20 July 2018 Retail Sales Have Not Reached a Turning Point Yet (Publication Centre)

June's 0.5% month-to-month fall in retail sales volumes does little to change the picture of recent strength.

20 July 2017 The June Housing Starts Rebound is not the Start of a Boom (Publication Centre)

We would like to be able to argue with conviction that the surge in June housing starts and building permits represents the beginning of a renewed strong upward trend, but we think that's unlikely.

2 June 2020 Manufacturing is Reviving, but a Full Recovery will Take Several Years (Publication Centre)

We remain convinced by other evidence that manufacturing output now is recovering, though pre-virus levels of production likely will not be realised for several years.

2 June 2020 Chinese Industry is Skating on Thin Ice, Given Sinking Export Orders (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in China continued to trudge along in May, with their post-lockdown recovery looking increasingly fragile.

19 November 2018 The Drop in Oil Prices will Hurt, but not too Badly, Retailers will Benefit (Publication Centre)

The plunge in oil prices in recent weeks is not a threat to the overall U.S. economic growth story in the near term--we have always expected growth to slow, but remain decent, once the boost from the tax cuts fades--but it will make a difference, at the margin.

19 Nov 2020 More Evidence Signals a Slowing Housing Rebound, but no Relapse (Publication Centre)

It's tempting to think, in the wake of yesterday's strong October housing starts numbers and the dip in mortgage rates to record lows, that the market will continue to strengthen.

19 Nov 2019 The Size of any Tory Majority Matters for Sterling's Medium-term Path (Publication Centre)

Investors have welcomed the flurry of encouraging opinion polls for the Conservatives that were published over the weekend, with cable rising nearly to $1.30 on Monday, a level last seen on a sustained basis six months ago.

19 Oct 2020 Colombia's Upturn Disappointed in August, but Q4 will be Slightly Better (Publication Centre)

Evidence of weakening momentum in the economic recovery in Colombia was seen last week, alongside its regional peers and some DM economies. Low inflation, low interest rates, and the ongoing boost from a decent fiscal stimulus, all have supported the upturn since mid-Q2.

19 Oct 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Jumped in September, But to a Still-low Rate (Publication Centre)

We expect September's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation rose to 0.6%, from 0.2% in August, in line with the consensus but above the 0.3% rate forecast by the MPC in August's Monetary Policy Report.

19 October 2018 Mortgage Lenders were Spooked by Higher Rates even Before Stocks Fell (Publication Centre)

Rising mortgage rates appear to have triggered the start, perhaps, of a tightening in lending standards, even before Treasury yields spiked this month and stock prices fell.

19 October 2018 How will Markets and the Economy React to Mr. Bolsonaro's Win (Publication Centre)

Sunday 28th will bring closure to an extraordinary presidential election campaign in Brazil.

19 Oct 2020 The Second Wave Brings Korea's Jobs Data Back Down to Earth (Publication Centre)

Korea's labour market ran out of luck in September, with the unemployment rate rebounding back up to 3.9%, after the surprise one-percentage point drop to 3.2% in August.

19 Nov 2019 The End of the Impeachment Process, Push, Jump, or Stay (Publication Centre)

As the impeachment hearings gather momentum, we have been asked to provide a cut-out-and-keep guide to the possible outcomes.

19 Nov 2019 Italian GDP Growth is Rebounding, but at a Painfully Slow Pace (Publication Centre)

Italy's economy is still bumping along the bottom, after emerging from recession in the middle of last year.

19 June 2020 Brazil's BCB is Determined to do Everything Possible to Boost Growth (Publication Centre)

Policymakers in Brazil and Chile took another big step this week in assuring markets that they won't hesitate to act in the fight against the virus.

19 July 2018 Housing Investment Likely Dipped in Q2 it's the Only Point of Weakness (Publication Centre)

We can't finalize our forecast for residential investment in the second quarter until we see the June home sales reports, due next week, but in the wake of yesterday's housing starts numbers we can be pretty sure that our estimate will be a bit below zero.

19 January 2017 Wage Growth Won't Force The MPC to Hike Rates This Year (Publication Centre)

The most striking aspect of yesterday's labour market report was the pick-up in the headline three month average year-over-year growth rate of average weekly wages, to a 14-month high of 2.8% in November, from 2.6% in October. Although still low by pre-recession standards, wage growth now is close to the rate that might worry the MPC.

19 June 2020 Weekly Gilt Purchases to Halve, Following the MPC's Miserly Meeting (Publication Centre)

The BoE has lived up to its reputation again as one of the most unpredictable central banks.

19 May 2020 Full Recovery is a Long Way Off, but Markets Trade on News and Hopes (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell's comment on Sunday's "60 Minutes", that a recovery in the economy "may take a while... it could stretch through the end of next year" did not prevent a 3% jump in the S&P 500 yesterday.

19 May 2020 Japan's Q1 Contraction was Just a Taster, the Q2 Hit will be Worse (Publication Centre)

Japan's economy contracted by 0.9% quarter-on- quarter in Q1, following a downwardly-revised 1.9% plunge in the previous quarter.

19 May 2020 Inflation Likely Slumped Below 1% in April, on Course for Zero by Q3 (Publication Centre)

April's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, likely will show that CPI inflation plunged and is heading quickly to a near-zero rate by the summer.

19 Sept 2019 Caught in the Lights Bi-directional Uncertainty Constrains the Fed (Publication Centre)

The Fed headlines yesterday carried no real surprises; rates were cut by 25bp, with a promise to take further action if "appropriate to sustain the expansion".

2 Apr 2020 How Long Before the Government Lifts the Lockdown? (Publication Centre)

The duration and future scope of the current lockdown is the main uncertainty that U.K economic forecasters have to grapple with at present.

2 Jan 2020 Bad Omens for Q4 Consumers' Spending Growth in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Data on EZ consumption were soft while we were enjoying our Christmas break. The advance EC consumer confidence index slipped to a three-year low of -8.1 in December, from -7.2 in November, breaking its recent tight range.

2 Jan 2020 The Post-Tariffs Plunge in Imports Continues, but not Forever (Publication Centre)

While were out over the holidays, the single biggest surprise in the data was yet another drop in imports, reported in the advance trade numbers for November.

2 Jan 2020 Structural Strengths Suggest Recession Risks Remain Low (Publication Centre)

The 2010s were the first decade since reliable records begin--in the 1700s--in which a recession was completely avoided

2 July 2019 Auto Sales are Solid: Fundamentals are Keeping Sales Over 17M (Publication Centre)

We keep hearing that the auto market is struggling, but that idea is not supported by the recent sales numbers.

2 July 2020 Another Increase in Payrolls is a Good Bet, but Anything Can Happen (Publication Centre)

ADP's measure of May private payrolls undershot the official estimate by 5.6 million, surprising everyone after it nailed the April catastrophe.

2 June 2020 BanRep Cuts Rates as the Colombian Labour Market Collapses (Publication Centre)

Colombian policymakers on Friday cut the reference rate by 50bp, for a third straight month, to 2.75%.

2 June 2020 Auto Sales are Rebounding Quickly, No Nike Swoosh Here (Publication Centre)

The May auto sales numbers probably will be released just after our deadline at 4pm eastern time today, but all the signs are that a hefty rebound will be reported after April's plunge to just 8.6M, not much more than half the pre-Covid level.

2 June 2017 May Payrolls Likely Solid, but Calendar Quirk will hit Wage Data (Publication Centre)

The 253K increase in May private payrolls reported by ADP yesterday was some a bit stronger than our 225K forecast. Plugging the difference between these numbers into our payroll model generates our 210K forecast for today's official number.

2 February 2018 January Job Gains Likely Solid, Calendar Effects to Subdue AHE? (Publication Centre)

The case for expecting a robust January jobs number is strong, but it is not without risks.

2 Dec 2019 The Effects of the Protests are Starting to Show up in Chile's Data (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets and currencies had a bad November, due to global trade war concerns, the USD rebound and domestic factors.

2 August 2018 The Door for a Bank of Korea Rate Hike in August Closes Further (Publication Centre)

The past two days have seen a slew of data that should keep the hawks in the Bank of Korea at bay during the Board's meeting at the end of this month.

2 April 2019 Manufacturing Might have Hit Bottom, but Don't Celebrate Yet (Publication Centre)

We were happy to see the small increase in the March ISM manufacturing index yesterday, following better news from China's PMIs, but none of these reports constitute definitive evidence that the manufacturing slowdown is over.

2 Apr 2020 Jobless Claims Likely to Hit Another New High, but they'll Fall Next Week (Publication Centre)

Last week's unprecedented surge in initial jobless claims, to 3,283K from 282K, prompted a New York Times front page for the ages; if you haven't seen it, click here.

2 Dec 2019 Business Sentiment Likely has Hit Bottom, but Hard Data Still Softening (Publication Centre)

We're reasonably happy with the idea that business sentiment is stabilizing, albeit at a low level, but that does not mean that all the downside risk to economic growth is over.

2 Dec 2019 Don't Take Your Eye off the Improving Monetary Indicators (Publication Centre)

With campaigning for the general election intensifying last week, it was unsurprising that October's money and credit release from the Bank of England received virtually no media or market attention.

2 Dec 2019 Further Increase in Japanese Unemployment in Store (Publication Centre)

Japan's jobless rate was unchanged, at 2.4% in October, as the market took a breather after September's job losses.

2 Dec 2019 EZ Core Inflation is Rising, but It Probably Overshot in November (Publication Centre)

The key detail in Friday's barrage of economic data was the above-consensus increase in EZ inflation.

20 November 2018 The Housing Downturn won't Kill the Rest of the Economy, this is not 2008 (Publication Centre)

The media and markets are waking up to the idea that the housing market has peaked in the face of higher mortgage rates and slightly--so far--tighter lending standards.

20 Sept 2019 The Case for Expecting Higher Inflation Next Year is Strong (Publication Centre)

Our forecast of significantly higher core inflation over the next year has been met, it would be fair to say, with a degree of skepticism.

23 August 2018 Political Risks is Rising Sharply in Brazil When Will Pressures Abate (Publication Centre)

The beginning of the electoral campaign last week in Brazil bodes uncertain results and a very close competition for the presidential elections on October 7.

23 August 2017 New Home Sales set for Cycle Highs, but Only Temporarily (Publication Centre)

The level of new home sales is likely to hit new cycle highs over the next few months, with a decent chance that today's July report will show sales at their highest level since late 2007.

23 Aug 2019 Chair Powell will Struggle to Meet Market Expectations Today (Publication Centre)

It's going to be very hard for Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech today to satisfy markets, which now expect three further rate cuts by March next year.

23 Jan 2020 The ECB Will Stick to its Guns Today, Negative Rates Work (Publication Centre)

Barring a meteor strike, the ECB will leave its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged today, at 0.00% and -0.5% respectively.

23 January 2019 The MPC Won't Risk Letting the Labour Market Overheat (Publication Centre)

November's labour market data were the last before the MPC's February meeting, when it will conduct its annual assessment of the supply side of the economy.

23 July 2020 Retail Sales Likely were Close to Pre- Virus Levels in June (Publication Centre)

We look for a 12.5% month-to-month jump in the official measure of retail sales in June, released on Friday. This easily would top the consensus, 8.3%, for a second consecutive month.

23 July 2020 Japan was off to a Slow Start in Q3, as Second Wave Risks Linger (Publication Centre)

Japan's flash Jibun Bank PMIs for July showed continued improvement, but only just.

23 July 2019 The ECB Will Prepare Markets for a Deposit Rate Cut This Week (Publication Centre)

We're breaking protocol this week by delivering our preview for Thursday's ECB meeting in today's Monitor.

23 April 2019 Brazil's Economy will Improve, but Rising Political Risk Remains a Drag (Publication Centre)

The economic data in Brazil were poor while we were away.

23 April 2018 Japan's Inflation Faces Near-Term Headwinds, but Core Will Trend up (Publication Centre)

Japan's headline CPI inflation is set to edge down in coming months, thanks to non-core prices.

22 Oct 2019 Even if the PM Prevails Today, a No- Confidence Vote Could Force a Delay (Publication Centre)

Sterling briefly touched $1.30 yesterday, in response to signs that a very small majority in the Commons stands ready to vote for an unamended version of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB-- on Tuesday.

22 Nov 2019 Fiscal Stimulus is Coming, Whoever Wins, the MPC will Need to Act (Publication Centre)

The public finances are in better shape than October's figures suggest in isolation. Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks--PSNB ex.--leapt to £11.2B, from £8.9B a year earlier.

22 Nov 2019 Don't Worry About the Uptick in Jobless Claims, Unless it Persists (Publication Centre)

Back-to-back elevated weekly jobless claims numbers prove nothing, but they have grabbed our attention.

22 Oct 2020 Very Low CPI Inflation Reflects More than Just Indirect Tax Cuts (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation picked up to 0.5% in September, from 0.2% in August, when the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme was running.

22 October 2018 Does the Opioid Crisis Explain the Flat Labor Participation Rate (Publication Centre)

The failure of labor market participation to increase as the economy has gathered pace, pushing unemployment down from its 10.0% peak to just 3.7%in September, is one of the biggest macro mysteries in recent years.

23 April 2018 German Producer Price Inflation is Turning Up, Slowly (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data suggest that the downtrend in German PPI inflation is reversing.

23 April 2018 Behind the Base-Case Forecast, Risks Abound, in Both Directions (Publication Centre)

For now, we're happy with our base-case forecast that growth will be nearer 3% than 2% this year, and that most of the rise in core inflation this year will come as a result of unfavorable base effects, rather than a serious increase in the month-to-month trend.

23 June 2020 Last Week's "Black Friday" in Colombia will Boost Covid Cases (Publication Centre)

Recent data in Colombia have confirmed that virus containment measures caused much bigger declines in activity in early Q2 than initially expected.

23 June 2020 The Housing Rebound is Intact, Ignore May's Drop in Existing Home Sales (Publication Centre)

Hot on the heels of yesterday's grim-looking-- temporarily--existing home sales numbers for May, we see upside risk for today's new sales data.

24 Apr 2020 Korea's Covid-19 Slump Will Evolve From Domestic- to Trade-Led in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Korean GDP contracted by 1.4% quarter-on- quarter in Q1, erasing the 1.3% jump at the end of last year. The pullback was sharper than we expected, with the cliff-edge drop in private consumption, in particular, catching us by surprise.

24 Apr 2020 Jobless Losses are Slowing, but are Still Terrifyingly Fast (Publication Centre)

The 810K drop in jobless claims in the week ended April 18 was a bit less than we expected, but the downward trend is clear; claims have fallen by some 2.4M from their peak, in the final week of March.

23 Sept 2020 We're Looking for a Downside Surprise in Today's PMI Data (Publication Centre)

Judging by the trend in investor sentiment, today's PMI data will look great.

24 April 2018 Japan's PMI Lends Strength to the Nascent Re ation Story (Publication Centre)

Japan's manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 in April, from 53.1 in March. The index weakened earlier this year, but remained at levels unjustified by the hard data.

24 April 2018 Q1 GDP to Reinforce the Case for the MPC to Delay in May (Publication Centre)

One way or another, the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP--due Friday--will have a big market impact, following Mark Carney's warning last week that a May rate hike is not a done deal.

24 Feb 2020 Virus-Induced Nerves will Persist until Non-China Cases Decline (Publication Centre)

While we were out last week, market nervousness over the Covid-19 outbreak intensified, though most key indicators of the spread of the infection continued to improve.

24 Feb 2020 Covid-19 Takes out Hope of Japan's Q1 Recovery, PMIs Show (Publication Centre)

Japan's January PMIs sent a clear signal that the virus impact is not to be underestimated. The manufacturing PMI fell to 47.6 in February, from 48.8 in January, contrasting sharply with the rising headlines of last week's batch of European PMIs.

24 Aug 2020 Second Covid Wave Continues to Ease, but Victory Still a Long Way Off (Publication Centre)

While we were out, new U.S. Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations continued to fall steadily, and deaths have now peaked.

23 Sept 2020 The V-Shaped Recovery Died in Early Summer, Now, it's a Slog, at Best (Publication Centre)

We triggered a bit of pushback on social media yesterday when we suggested that Larry Kudlow's familiarity with the alphabet is questionable.

23 Sept 2020 The Housing Market is Starting to Come Off the Boil (Publication Centre)

It is fair to say that the strength of the rebound in the housing market over the summer has caught most analysts, including ourselves, by surprise.

23 Nov 2020 Outright Deflation Won't Bother the BoJ, but a Stalling Recovery Will (Publication Centre)

Silly season in Japanese inflation is pretty much over.

23 Mar 2020 We're Updating our Forecasts, Take them With a Pinch of Salt (Publication Centre)

Economists' forecasts are changing almost as quickly as market prices these days, and not for the better.

23 Mar 2020 Japan's Threat to Global Financial Markets in this Massive Real Shock (Publication Centre)

The Covid-19 shock to the real economy in China, and now the world, is colossal. Asia is leading the downturn, both because the outbreak started in China, but also because of its place in the supply chain.

23 Oct 2019 Take the PM's Threat of a General Election Seriously (Publication Centre)

As we write, the Commons appears to be on the verge of voting for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--at its second reading but then voting against the government's "Programme Motion", which sets out a very tight timetable for its passage through parliament, in a bid to meet the October 31 deadline and to minimise parliamentary scrutiny.

23 Oct 2019 The Richmond Fed Suggests the Worst is Over for the ISM, for now (Publication Centre)

The 17-point leap in the Richmond Fed index for October, reported yesterday, was startlingly large.

23 Oct 2020 Reforms to the Job Support Scheme will Keep a Lid on Unemployment (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor's alterations to the Job Support Scheme--JSS--yesterday were substantial enough to reduce meaningfully the scale of job losses ahead.

23 Oct 2020 Happy Holidays Coming for (Some) Retailers even as Covid Surges (Publication Centre)

When we're thinking about the prospects for the holiday shopping season, we usually focus on two questions.

22 May 2020 Japan's Abysmal Exports Could Soon Stabilise, Looking at Korea (Publication Centre)

Japan's export data for April unsurprisingly were abysmal, driving a massive deterioration in the trade balance, which flipped from a modest ¥5B surplus in March, to a ¥930B deficit.

22 May 2020 An Uptick in Sentiment Indicators, but Brazil's Covid Crisis Worsens (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus pandemic is wreaking havoc in Brazil.

21 July 2017 What to Look for from the Fed and the Data Over the next Two Weeks (Publication Centre)

Chair Yellen remains as committed as ever to the idea that the tightening labor market will eventually push up inflation, but the unexpectedly weak core CPI readings for the past four months have complicated the picture in the near-term.

21 Jan. 2015 Welcome Gain in ZEW, but Still Not Confirmed by IFO or PMIs (Publication Centre)

Investor sentiment in the Eurozone showed further signs of recovery yesterday. The ZEW expectations index rose strongly to 48.4 in January from 34.9 in December, and the leap since the trough in October ranks among the strongest rebounds ever recorded in the index.

21 Jan 2020 Colombia's Private Consumption Slowed in Q4, Will it Stabilize Soon? (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday confirmed that Colombian activity lost momentum in Q4, following an impressive performance in late Q2 and Q3. Retail sales rose 4.4% in November, down from 7.4% in October and 8.3% in Q3.

21 July 2020 The Housing Market Won't Defy Gravity for Long (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s property obsession has been immune to Covid-19, so far.

21 June 2019 Dealing with the "Delay Suits Both" Theories of China Trade (Publication Centre)

We've had pushback from readers over our take on the likelihood of a trade deal with China in the near future.

21 Nov 2019 Will the End of the Local Authority Borrowing Binge Hit Capex? (Publication Centre)

Borrowing by local authorities from the Public Works Loan Board, used to finance capital projects-- and arguably dubious commercial property acquisitions--has surged this year.

21 Nov 2019 EZ Equities are Teasing Investors to Disregard Fundamentals (Publication Centre)

The year so far in EZ equities has been just as odd as in the global market as a whole.

21 May 2020 Zero CPI Inflation Still Likely by the Summer, Following April's Big Fall (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation took a big step in April towards the near-zero rate we anticipate by the summer.

21 February 2019 Will the Real Story in French Services Please Stand Up (Publication Centre)

Today's data dump will deliver the advance PMIs and the French INSEE business sentiment indices for February, all of which will be examined closely for signs of stabilisation in the wake of recent evidence that EZ growth is slowing quicker than markets and the ECB have been expecting.

21 February 2018 The ECB is in the Headlines, But Not Because of its Monetary Policy (Publication Centre)

Politics are once again encroaching on the economic story in the Eurozone. At the ECB, this week has so far been a tumultuous one.

21 August 2017 Construction is Propelling the Eurozone Economy in 2017 (Publication Centre)

The construction sector remains a stand-out performer in the Eurozone economy, despite stumbling at the end of Q2.

21 Aug 2020 Keep it Simple on the Euro, the ECB is set to Lower its CPI forecast (Publication Centre)

The euro's ascent in the past few months raises two main questions for investors.

20 September 2017 August Retail Sales to Confirm Consumption Still Weak in Q3 (Publication Centre)

August's retail sales figures, released today, look set to show that growth in consumers' spending has remained subpar in Q3, casting doubt over whether the MPC will conclude that the economy can cope with a rate hike this year.

21 August 2018 Could Stockpiling for a No-Deal Brexit Boost the Economy? (Publication Centre)

We have been asked several times in recent days whether a pick-up in stockbuilding, as part of businesses' contingency planning for a no-deal Brexit, could cause the economy to gather some pace in the run-up to Britain's scheduled departure from the EU in March 2019.

21 December 2016 Is FDI Now the Main Driver of Eurozone Capital Outflows? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus is on track for a record-breaking year in 2016. Data yesterday showed that the current account surplus rose to €28.4B in October, from €27.7B in September. The trade surplus in goods fell, but this drag was offset by a higher services and income surplus, and a lower current transfers deficit.

21 Feb 2020 Buckle Up, Today's Eurozone PMIs Will Move Markets, We Think (Publication Centre)

Today's advance EZ PMIs will be watched more closely than usual.

21 Feb 2020 A Bad Weather Hit to February's Composite PMI (Publication Centre)

We expect the flash reading of Markit's composite PMI, released today, to print at 52.4 in February, below the consensus, 52.8, and January's final reading, 53.3, albeit still in line with last month's flash.

21 Oct 2019 No Lasting Relief for the Economy, if the New Brexit Deal Eventually Passes (Publication Centre)

The government now has a 50:50 chance of getting the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--through parliament in the coming weeks, despite Letwin's successful amendment and the extension request.

21 Oct 2019 Political Uncertainty Comes to U.S. Markets, What Happens Next (Publication Centre)

In recent client meetings the first and last topic of conversation has been the market implications of the possible departure of President Trump from office.

22 July 2019 The Fed's Friday Pushback Against 50bp Makes Sense it's Too Much (Publication Centre)

With Fed officials now in pre-FOMC meeting blackout mode, this week will not bring a repeat of Friday's confusion, when the New York Fed felt obligated to issue a clarification following president William's speech on monetary policy close to the zero bound.

22 January 2018 The Government Shutdown is Theater, but Could Become a Threat (Publication Centre)

As we reach our Sunday afternoon deadline, no deal has been reached to re-open the federal government.

22 Jan 2020 The Outlook for the Q1 PMI Data Suddenly Looks Great (Publication Centre)

Investor sentiment data still indicate that EZ PMIs are set for a significant rebound at start of the year.

22 July 2020 Argentina's Economic Recovery is Underway, but it's a Very Slow Start (Publication Centre)

Economic activity is rebounding in LatAm, but the recovery will be slow and uneven.

22 July 2020 Don't Fret About the New Weakness in Korea's Partial Trade Data (Publication Centre)

Korea's fledgling export recovery seemingly hit a roadblock this month.

22 May 2018 Retail Sales Likely Recovered in April, but the Trend Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

April's retail sales figures, due Thursday, likely will show that spending recovered from snow-induced weakness in March.

22 June 2020 Retail Sales will be a Poor Bellwether for Households' Overall Spending (Publication Centre)

We advise strongly against concluding from the above-consensus rebound in retail sales in May that the economy is embarking on a healthy, V-shaped recovery, from Covid-19.

22 June 2018 Business Capex is Still Set for Rapid Growth, Trade Spats Permitting (Publication Centre)

A round of recent conversations with investors suggests to us that markets remain quite skeptical of the idea that the recent upturn in capital spending will be sustained.

22 Jan 2020 Resilient Labour Market will Make the Doves Pause for Thought (Publication Centre)

November's labour market report provided timely reassurance, after last week's downside data surprises, that the economy did not grind to a halt at the end of last year.

22 Jan 2020 Existing Home Sales to Rise in H1, Whatever Happened in December (Publication Centre)

The weather-driven surge in December housing starts, reported last week, is unlikely to be replicated in today's existing home sales numbers for the same month.

21 September 2018 Housing Activity is Faltering, but the Modestly (Publication Centre)

The New York Fed tweeted yesterday that "Housing market fundamentals appear strong.

21 September 2017 The FOMC is not Deterred by the Hurricanes, Expect a December Hike (Publication Centre)

The FOMC's view of the economic outlook and the likely required policy response, set out in yesterday's statement and Chair Yellen's press conference, could not be clearer.

21 Oct 2020 September Likely was the Last Hurrah for Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

September's retail sales figures, released on Friday, look set to show that spending climbed to a new record-high, despite this year's decline in households' disposable incomes.

22 Apr. 2016 Jobs Data Suggest--But Don't Guarantee Faster Q2 Growth (Publication Centre)

Looking back at the numbers over the past few weeks, it is pretty clear that the gap between the strong payroll reports and the activity data widened to a chasm in the first quarter. We now expect GDP growth of about zero--the latest Atlanta Fed estimate is +0.3% and the New York Fed's new model points to 0.8%--but payrolls rose at an annualized 1.9% rate.

22 April 2019 So Much for the Q1 Rollover: GDP Appears to have Breached 2% (Publication Centre)

The U.S. consumer is back on track, almost. We have argued in recent months that the sharp slowdown in the rate of growth of consumption is mostly a story about a transition from last year's surge, when spending was boosted by the tax cuts and, later, by falling gas prices, to a sustainable pace roughly in line with real after-tax income growth.

22 February 2019 Scope for Further Fiscal Stimulus Remains Intact (Publication Centre)

After a disappointing run of monthly data, the huge surplus on the main "PSNB ex ." measure of borrowing in January must have been greeted with relief at the Treasury.

22 February 2018 Jobless Claims Still Under Downward Pressure, Labor is Scarce (Publication Centre)

We have learned over the years not to become too excited in the face of swings in the jobless claims numbers, even when the movement appears to persist for a month or two.

28 Oct 2019 China's Q3 GDP was Dire, Official Headlines Don't Tell the Half of it (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth slowed to 6.0% year-over-year in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2 and 6.4% in Q1. Consecutive 0.2 percentage points declines are significant in China.

28 Oct 2019 The PM Can Get His Election Soon, But He Must Pay a Higher Price (Publication Centre)

MPs will be asked today to approve the PM's motion, proposed in accordance with the Fixed-term Parliaments Act--FTPA--to hold a general election on December 12.

5 June 2020 Chinese Construction is Chugging Away, while Services are Subdued (Publication Centre)

China's official non-manufacturing PMI rose further in May, hitting a four-month high of 53.6.

7 July 2020 Will the Weakness of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue in Q3? (Publication Centre)

Recent economic indicators in Mexico have been terrible. The worst of the recession seems to be over, but recent hard data have underscored the severity of the shock and made it clear that the recovery has a long way to go.

5 June 2020. Upside Risk to Payrolls Today, Downside for Unemployment, AHE (Publication Centre)

We set out the reasoning behind the big upward revision to our payroll forecast yesterday, in the wake of the much better-than-expected ADP report.

7 July 2020 The Prospects for a Robust Q3 Rebound in India are Diminishing (Publication Centre)

India's services PMI for June underscores the half-hearted nature of Unlock 1.0, with the daily number of new cases of Covid-19 still rocketing.

7 July 2020 Is the Economy Shrinking Again as the Second Covid Wave Builds? (Publication Centre)

The short answer to the question posed by our title is: We don't know. But that's the point, because we shouldn't be needing to ask the question at all.

7 January 2019 Job Growth will Slow in Q1, but it Won't Collapse, AHE is Accelerating (Publication Centre)

If our composite index of businesses' hiring plans could speak, it would say: "Told you payrolls were going to go nuts at the end of the year."

7 January 2019 The Downbeat PMIs Should be Trusted This Time Around (Publication Centre)

Evidence that mounting concerns about Brexit have caused the economy to slow to a near-halt continued to accumulate last week.

7 July 2017 Upside Risk for Payroll. Despite Soft ADP. Robust AHE a Decent Bet too (Publication Centre)

ADP's reported 158K increase in private payrolls was very close to our model-based estimate, so it doesn't change our 220K forecast for todays official payroll number, well above the 177K consensus.

7 June 2019 GDP Likely Fell Again in April, But the Pain Will Be All in Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

April's GDP report, released on Monday, likely will add fuel to the fire of the re cent sharp decline in interest rate expectations.

7 March 2018 ADP Set to Report Strong Payrolls in February, 200K Seems a Good Bet (Publication Centre)

All the signs are that ADP will today report a solid increase in February private payrolls; our forecast is 200K, but if you twist our arms we'd probably say the mild weather last month across most of the country points to a bit of upside risk.

7 Nov 2019 India Started Q4 Badly, Modi's RCEP Snub is Short-Sighted (Publication Centre)

India's PMIs for October were grim, indicating minimal carry-over of energy from the third quarter rebound.

5 Mar 2020 ADP Likely Overstates February Payrolls, but Everything will Change (Publication Centre)

The comforting 183K increase in February private payrolls reported by ADP yesterday likely overstates tomorrow's official number.

7 Nov 2019 Storm Clouds Gathering for the Auto Market as Loan Standards Tighten (Publication Centre)

One bad month proves nothing, but our first chart shows that October's auto sales numbers were awful, dropping unexpectedly to a six-month low.

7 Nov 2019 GDP Likely Was Little Changed in September, Rounding off a Solid Q3 (Publication Centre)

The economic data calendar for next week is so congested that we need to preview early September's GDP report, released on Monday.

6 Nov 2019 Some Preliminary Thoughts on EZ Fiscal Policy Next Year (Publication Centre)

Judging by interactions with readers in the past few weeks, fiscal policy is one of the most important topics for EZ investors as we move into the final stretch of the year.

7 March 2018 Brazil's Industrial Sector Remains Solid, Despite Slipping in January (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector was off to a soft-looking start in Q1, but the fall in January output was chiefly payback for an especially strong end to 2017.

7 March 2018 Will Snow Disruption Freeze the MPC in its Tracks? (Publication Centre)

Last week's heavy snowfall, which blighted the entire country, will depress GDP growth in Q1, making it harder for the MPC to read the economy.

7 Nov 2019 A Rare Batch of Good News in the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were mostly positive.

7 Jan 2020 The Eurozone Services Sector is Still Holding its Own (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were solid across the board.

5 June 2019 The Fed will Ease if Trade Makes the Sky Fall in Otherwise, Patience (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell yesterday said about as little as he could without appearing to ignore the turmoil in markets since the President announced his intention to apply tariffs to imports from Mexico: "We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective."

7 December 2018 Expect Solid November Jobs (Publication Centre)

We're sticking to our 220K forecast for today's official payroll number, despite the slightly smaller-than- expected 179K increase in the ADP measure of private employment.

30 November 2017 A Strong Start to Fourth Quarter Consumption, Probably (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of third quarter consumers' spending was revised up by 0.3 percentage point to 3.3% in the national accounts released yesterday.

30 May 2018 ADP Likely to Report Solid Gain in May Payrolls (Publication Centre)

The models which generate the ADP measure of private payrolls will benefit in May from the strength of the headline industrial production, business sales and jobless claims numbers.

7 August 2018 Why are the JOLTS Job Openings Numbers so Strong (Publication Centre)

According to the official data presented in the JOLTS report, the number of job openings across the U.S. rose gently from 2011-to 13, rocketed in 2014, trended upwards much more slowly from 2015-to-17, and then, finally, unexpectedly jumped to record highs in the spring of this year.

30 November. 2016 EZ Inflation Data Will Disappoint Today, but it Will Rise Further (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance inflation data in Germany fell short of forecasts--ours and the consensus--for a further increase. Inflation was unchanged at 0.8% year-over-year in November, but we think this pause will be temporary.

5 February 2019 Six Days Later, We're Still Struggling to Make Sense of the Fed's Thinking (Publication Centre)

We very much doubt that Fed Chair Powell dramatically changed his position last week because President Trump repeatedly, and publicly, berated him and the idea of further increases in interest rates.

30 Oct 2019 BoJ Forecasts Due for a Downgrade, Expect a Package of Measures (Publication Centre)

Markets see a strong possibility, though not a probability, that the BoJ will cut rates on Thursday.

7 August 2018 Car Sales will Remain Stuck in the Slow Lane (Publication Centre)

It would be a mistake to conclude from July's car registrations data that the market finally has turned a corner.

7 Feb 2020 Coronavirus Could be near-$100B Hit to Chinese GDP in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Nobody knows the damage China's virus- containment efforts will have on GDP, and we probably never will, for sure, given the opacity of the statistics.

5 July 2017 ISM Signals Continued Industrial Recovery, but not a Boom (Publication Centre)

The June ISM manufacturing index signalled clearly that the industrial recovery continues, with the headline number rising to its highest level since August 2014, propelled by rising orders and production. But the industrial economy is not booming and the upturn likely will lose a bit of momentum in the second half as the rebound in oil sector capex slows.

5 July 2019 Trade Truce 2.0 Means that the BoK will Happily Ignore June's Weak Data (Publication Centre)

Korea's economic data for June largely were poor, and are likely to make more BoK board members anxious ,ahead of their meeting on July 18.

5 July 2019 Will Higher Savings Hold Back EZ Consumption Again this Year? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ consumers' spending data were mixed. Retail sales in the euro area fell by 0.3% month-to-month in May, extending the slide from a revised 0.1% dip in April.

30 May 2017 Why Don't Markets Take the Fed's Interest Rate Forecasts Seriously? (Publication Centre)

Markets expect the Fed will fail to follow through on its current intention to raise rates twice more this year and three times next year. Part of this skepticism reflects recent experience.

5 July 2018 Beware Inferring Too Much From June's Slightly Stronger PMIs (Publication Centre)

The pick-up in the Markit/CIPS services PMI to an eight-month high of 55.1 in June, from 54.0 in May, has provided another boost to expectations that the MPC will raise Bank Rate at its next meeting on August 2.

7 February 2019 November's Drop in Imports won't be Repeated, but it will Lift Q4 Growth (Publication Centre)

The startling November international trade numbers, released yesterday, greatly improve the chance that the fourth quarter saw a third straight quarter of 3%- plus GDP growth.

7 Feb 2020 December's Crash in German Factory Orders is an Outlier (Publication Centre)

Our hope for a year-end jump in German factory orders was laughably optimistic.

7 February 2018 Fed Officials Likely to Signal that the Plan is to Stick to the Plan (Publication Centre)

No fewer than four FOMC members will speak today, ranging from the very dovish to the pretty hawkish.

7 Oct 2019 After the RBI's Fifth Rate Cut, Food Prices will Force a December Pause (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted unanimously on Friday to cut interest rates at a fifth straight meeting, as expected.

7 Oct 2020 India's Two-Speed Recovery is at a Crossroads, Downside Risks Prevail (Publication Centre)

The changing face of India's post-lockdown economic recovery indicates that the initial bounce since the June reopening could soon stall.

6 May 2020 Timely Indicators Show the Economy is Adapting to the Lockdown (Publication Centre)

Emerging evidence suggests that the economy has passed the period of peak Covid-19 pain.

5 Nov 2019 No Relief for Manufacturing in the Eurozone at the Start of Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs for October were grim, but they told investors nothing they don't already know.

5 Nov 2020 Less Fiscal Push, More Monetary Easing, Stocks Up, Yields, USD Down (Publication Centre)

As we reach our deadline at 4pm Eastern, definitive results are not yet available for Nevada, Georgia or Pennsylvania, any one of which would push Joe Biden over the 270 Electoral Vote threshold, given that Michigan and Wisconsin have been called for him.

5 Nov 2019 ISM Non-manufacturing Crushed by the Trade War, has it Bottomed (Publication Centre)

The simultaneous decline in both ISM indexes was a key factor driving markets to anticipate last week's Fed easing.

8 January 2018 The Labor Market is Still Tightening, Don't Fret over December Payrolls (Publication Centre)

We aren't perturbed by the undershoot in December payrolls, relative both to the October and November numbers and all the leading indicators.

19 January 2017 Core Inflation Pressure Building Slowly, Headline to Jump Further (Publication Centre)

The solid numbers for December mean that core inflation remains on track to breach 2?-?% this year, though probably not until the summer. Over the next few months, base effects will help to hold the core rate close to the December pace.

30 June 2020 Spending in Japan is Stabilising, a Proper Recovery is a Long Way Off (Publication Centre)

Retail sales in Japan rose modestly in May, after collapsing in March and April, as the government tried to put a lid on the country's Covid-19 outbreak.

5 Nov 2019 How Much Further Can Support for the Two Main Parties Rally? (Publication Centre)

Support in opinion polls for both the Conservatives and Labour has been increasing steadily.

5 Nov 2020 October's PMIs Add to Signs of Pre-Lockdown Stagnation (Publication Centre)

The downward revision to October's services PMI to 51.4, from the 52.3 flash estimate, adds to evidence that the recovery has ground to a halt, with GDP likely still about 8% below its peak.

8 January 2019 Bifurcation Intensifying Services Outperforming as Industry Suffers (Publication Centre)

If you need more evidence that the U.S. economy is bifurcating, look at the spread between the ISM non- manufacturing and manufacturing indexes, which has risen to 3.5 points, the widest gap since September 2016.

5 Oct 2020 The Election Picture isn't Changed by Trump's Test, he is Still Likely to Lose (Publication Centre)

The initial stock market reaction to news of President Trump's Covid test never made much sense. Sure, markets do not like uncertainty, but in a country where the election is only four weeks away, and very few voters remain undecided, it's hard to see how Mr. Trump's diagnosis materially changes the race.

5 September 2017 Underlying Trend in Labor Data Unaffected by "Soft" August Report (Publication Centre)

We had hoped that the statistical problems which have plagued the initial estimates of August payrolls in recent years had faded, but Friday's report suggests our judgement was premature.

8 July 2020 Japanese Wages are in Bad Shape Heading into Bonus Season (Publication Centre)

It is becoming increasingly safe to say that any bounce in private consumption following the end of Japan's state of emergency will be muted and difficult to sustain.

8 July 2020 German Manufacturing Remained Tepid in May, was June Better (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's manufacturing data in Germany followed the lead from Monday's relatively underwhelming new orders report; see here.

5 Oct 2020 August GDP Will Prompt the MPC to Reappraise the Recovery's Strength (Publication Centre)

August's GDP report, released on Friday, looks set to reinforce the downward pressure on gilt yields by making it even more likely that the MPC will extend its QE programme later this year.

8 July 2019 Will the Weakness of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue? (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirmed that Mexico's economy stumbled in the first half of the year, hurt by a temporary shocks in both the industrial and services sectors, and heightened political uncertainty, due to policy mistakes at the outset of AMLO's presidency.

5 November 2018 Taking Stock of the Outlook after a Newsworthy Week (Publication Centre)

News last week increased our conviction that the economy will struggle over the coming months, but then will have a spring in its step next year.

5 Nov 2019 Chilean Private Demand will Slow in Q4, Rising Exports will Ease the Pain (Publication Centre)

Economic conditions are deteriorating rapidly in Chile, despite the relatively decent Imacec reading for Q3.

8 January 2018 Japan's Services Sector will Pick Up in Q1, Wage Pressure Mounts (Publication Centre)

Japan's services sector PMI last week was disappointing.

7 September 2018 Brace for Soft Looking August Payroll and Hourly Earnings Data (Publication Centre)

In the wake of yesterday's ADP report, which showed private payrolls rising by only 163K, we have pulled down our forecast for today's official number to 170K.

8 April 2019 Payroll Gains set to be Close to 200K in Q2 Labor Market Still Tightening (Publication Centre)

The return to normal in the March payroll numbers, with a 196K headline increase, is another nail in the coffin of the "imminent recession" theory.

8 April 2019 Recovering from the Shock of Japan's Wage Data... it's Not All Bad (Publication Centre)

Officially, Japanese wages have been falling year- over-year since January, marking a break from the gradual acceleration over the past 18 or so months.

5 Mar 2020 Will the MPC Cut Rates Before its Late March Meeting? (Publication Centre)

Speculation mounted yesterday that the MPC will follow the U.S. Fed and cut interest rates before its next meeting on March 26.

7 Sept 2020 GDP Growth will Slow Sharply as Temporary Supports are Removed (Publication Centre)

Data released during our summer break have strengthened the case for expecting the economic recovery to decelerate sharply in the autumn, well before GDP has returned to pre-Covid levels.

5 Mar 2020 How far Will EZ Services Fall, and Will it Cause a Recession (Publication Centre)

It will take a while for the economic data in the euro area fully to reflect the Covid-19 shock, but the incoming numbers paint an increasingly clear picture of an improving economy going into the outbreak.

7 Oct 2020 More Solid German Manufacturing Data, but Risks Loom in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that the recovery in German manufacturing picked up the pace midway through Q3. Factory orders jumped by 4.5% month-to-month in August, accelerating after a revised 3.3% gain in July.

7 Sept 2020 Brazil's Industrial Recovery Gathered Speed in July, But Risks Abound (Publication Centre)

Brazilian industrial production data released last week were upbeat. Output rose 8.0% month-to-month in July, much better than the consensus forecast for a 5.9% increase.

8 August 2018 July Brought Neither Feast Nor Famine for Retailers (Publication Centre)

The run-up to the release of the official retail sales figures has become so congested with other indicators, following alterations by the ONS to its publication schedule, that we now have to preview the data earlier than usual.

8 December 2017 Robust Jobs Data Will Emphasize the Labor Market's Tightness (Publication Centre)

We expect to see a 180K increase in November payrolls

8 Jan 2020 Higher Oil Prices won't Stop the Economy Recovering this Year (Publication Centre)

The $10 increase in the price of Brent crude oil over the last three months to $68 is an unhelpful, but manageable, drag on the U.K. economy's growth prospects this year.

5 May 2020 Core Inflation is Set to Fall, but not Every Component will Drop (Publication Centre)

We're very comfortable with the idea that the coronavirus is a broad deflationary shock to the U.S. economy.

5 May 2020 EZ Manufacturing Crashed and Burned at the Start of Q2 (Publication Centre)

Services will bear the brunt of the Covid-19 shock in the euro area, but manufacturing is not far behind.

8 Jan 2020 ADP is Unlikely To Repeat November's Huge Undershoot (Publication Centre)

The contrast between November's very modest 67K ADP private payroll number and the surprising 254K official reading was startling, even when the 46K boost to the latter from returning GM strikers is stripped out.

5 May 2020 Chile Shows First Signs of the Covid-19 Hit, More Pain to Come (Publication Centre)

The recent March economic activity reports for Chile have been terrible, showing the first signs of the Covid-19 shock, and worse is to come.

8 February 2018 Higher-Paid People Drove up January Wages, but Data are Noisy (Publication Centre)

Given the light flow of data this week we want to go back for a closer look at the market-shattering January hourly earnings data.

5 May 2017 Mr. Macron should be able to move into the Élysée on Monday (Publication Centre)

This weekend will bring closure to an extraordinary presidential election campaign in France. The polls correctly predicted the first result, and assuming they are right in the second round too, Mr. Macron will comfortably beat Ms. Le Pen.

7 Aug 2020 More Monetary Stimulus Likely in Q4, Despite the MPC's Optimism (Publication Centre)

The MPC struck a less dovish tone than markets had anticipated yesterday.

30 Oct 2019 Don't Put All Your Election Chips on Blue (Publication Centre)

Britain looks set for a general election during the week commencing December 9, now that all main parties are pushing for a pre-Christmas poll.

31 October. 2016 Q3 Growth Likely Wasn't 2.9%, Headwinds in Q4 (Publication Centre)

We are struggling to make sense of the third quarter GDP numbers. The reality is that the massive surge in soybean exports--which we estimate contributed 0.9 percentage points, gross, to GDP growth--mostly came from falling inventory, because the soybean harvest mostly takes place in Q4.

4 Oct 2019 Don't be Fooled by Good September Payrolls the Trend is Slowing Sharply (Publication Centre)

We look for a 150K increase in September payrolls, rather better than the August 130K headline number, which was flattered by a 28K increase in federal government jobs, likely due to hiring for the 2020 Census.

4 October 2017 BoJ QE Programme Slows to a Trickle but Reflation on the Cards (Publication Centre)

The rapidity with which the BoJ's QE programme has been scaled back is dramatic. Growth in the monetary base slowed to 15.6% year-over-year in September from 16.3% in August.

4 April 2019 It's Hard to Find the Signal Behind the ADP Noise in March (Publication Centre)

We can think of at least three reasons for the apparent softness of ADP's March private sector employment reading.

4 Nov 2020 Manufacturing will be a Bright Spot Through the Bleak Winter (Publication Centre)

Equity markets are correctly concluding that the outlook for U.K.-listed manufacturers is brighter than for most other firms.

4 Nov 2019 The MPC Won't Send Up a Flare While the Outlook Remains Cloudy (Publication Centre)

The economic and political backdrop to this week's Monetary Policy Committee meeting is significantly more benign than when it last met on September 19.

4 Nov 2019 Brazil's Industrial Sector Improved in Q3, Colombia's Economy is Strong (Publication Centre)

Thursday and Friday were busy days for LatAm economy watchers. In Brazil, the data underscored our view that the economy is on the mend, but the recent upturn remains shaky, and external risks are still high.

4 Aug 2020 Manufacturing is Recovering, but it has not Recovered (Publication Centre)

Under normal circumstances, sustained ISM manufacturing readings around the July level, 54.2, would be consistent with GDP growth of about 2% year-over-year.

4 October 2018 September's PMIs are Consistent with Slow Growth and MPC Inaction (Publication Centre)

September's Markit/CIPS PMIs indicate that the economy still is stuck in a low gear.

31 May 2019 The Economy Won't Be Knocked Off Course by Rising Household Saving (Publication Centre)

Households' willingness to save a smaller fraction of their incomes goes a long way to explaining why the U.K. economy hasn't lost too much momentum since the Brexit vote.

31 July 2020 Q3 Growth Could be as High as 25%, but Payrolls won't Play Along (Publication Centre)

The only significant surprise in the terrible second quarter GDP numbers was the 2.7% increase in government spending, led by near-40% leap in the federal nondefense component.

31 July 2020 Every Employment Indicator is Continuing to Glow Bright Red (Publication Centre)

We remain concerned that huge job losses are imminent, slowing the economic recovery after a mid-summer spurt.

31 July 2020 Covid-19 Brought Mexico's Economy to its Knees, and the Outlook is Grim (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of Q2 GDP in Mexico confirmed that the economy has been under severe stress in recent months.

31 Mar 2020 Business and Consumer Confidence are Cratering, Further Falls Ahead (Publication Centre)

A pair of closely-watched reports today will confirm that business and consumer confidence is tanking in the face of the coronavirus outbreak.

31 Mar 2020 Will Housing Market Activity See a V-Shaped Recovery This Year? (Publication Centre)

Covid-19 has cut short a nascent recovery in housing market activity.

31 May 2018 Italy isn't Headed for Euro Exit, but Markets Need Clarity to Calm Fears (Publication Centre)

Our Chief Eurozone Economist, Claus Vistesen, is covering the Italian situation in detail in his daily Monitor but it's worth summarizing the key points for U.S. investors here.

31 May 2017 Eurozone Core Inflation Likely will Undershoot the Consensus Today (Publication Centre)

Today's advance EZ CPI report likely will show that inflation pressures eased in May. We think inflation slipped to 1.5% year-over-year, from 1.9% in April, as the boost to the core rate from the late Easter faded.

4 Dec 2019 ADP Employment Likely to Capture Weakening Labor Demand (Publication Centre)

The ADP employment report was on the money in October at the headline level--it undershot the official private payroll number by a trivial 6K--but the BLS's measure was hit by the absence of 46K striking GM workers from the data.

4 Dec 2019 Better Times Lie Ahead for the Construction Sector (Publication Centre)

2019 is a year many in the construction sector would prefer to forget.

4 June 2019 The Official PMI has it Right Tariff hit has Derailed China's Trade Recovery (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI was steady in May, at 50.2, in contrast to the official gauge published on Friday, which dropped to 49.5, from April's 50.2.

4 July 2019 We Know the Names of the EU's New Top Brass, and That's About it (Publication Centre)

Europe's political leaders finally made a breakthrough this week in nominating candidates for the top jobs in the EU.

4 March 2019 No Light at the End of the Tunnel for Japan's Softening Labour Market (Publication Centre)

Japan's jobless rate inched up to 2.5% in January, from 2.4% in December.

4 June 2020 ADP Suggests Re-hiring Took Off as Soon as Reopening Began (Publication Centre)

The unexpectedly small 2,760K drop in the ADP measure of May private payrolls is consistent, at least, with the idea that the partial reopening of several states in the early part of the month prompted an immediate wave of rehiring.

4 June 2020 Don't Set Store by India's Q1 GDP Surprise, no Bullet was Dodged (Publication Centre)

India's consensus-beating GDP report for the first quarter wasn't much to write home about.

4 Mar 2020 Pulling Down our Economic Forecasts Due to the Coronavirus (Publication Centre)

We are revising down our forecasts for quarteron-quarter GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 to 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, from 0.4% in both quarters previously, to account for the likely impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

6 Nov 2019 The Two-Quarter Productivity Boomlet is Over, ULC Accelerating (Publication Centre)

Productivity growth reached the dizzy heights of 1.8% year-over-year in the second quarter, following a couple of hefty quarter-on-quarter increases, averaging 2.9%.

4 Mar 2020 More to Come from the Fed, but Fiscal Policy has to Step Up too (Publication Centre)

We aren't in the business of trying to divine the explanation for every twist and turn in the stock market at the best of times, and these are not the best of times.

4 May 2018 Weak PMIs Mean Even a "Hawkish Hold" is Off the MPC's Table (Publication Centre)

The failure of the Markit/CIPS services PMI to rebound fully in April, following its fall in March, provides more evidence that the economy is in the midst of an underlying slowdown.

4 January 2019 No Need to Lower 2019 Economic Forecasts for Equity Market Drama (Publication Centre)

The 15% fall in the FTSE 100 since its May 2018 peak undoubtedly is an unwelcome development for the economy, but past experience suggests we shouldn't rush to revise down our forecasts for GDP growth.

4 Feb 2020 Consumer Fundamentals Will Support Spending, Look at Redbook (Publication Centre)

The fundamentals underpinning our forecast of solid first half growth in consumers' spending remain robust.

4 December 2018 Manufacturing Still Treading Water, Despite the Slightly Stronger PMI (Publication Centre)

The recovery in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI to 53.1 in November, from 51.1 in October, propelled it well above the consensus, and the equivalent reading for the Eurozone, 51.8, for only the second time in the last 19 months.

4 Dec 2019 EURUSD is Poised to Move, The Case for a Rise is Strengthening (Publication Centre)

Implied volatility on the euro is now so low that we're compelled to write about it, mainly because we think the macroeconomic data are hinting where the euro goes next.

4 Nov 2019 The Jobs Outlook is Deteriorating Despite the Solid October, ex-GM (Publication Centre)

The unexpectedly robust 128K increase in October payrolls--about 175K when the GM strikers are added back in--and the 98K aggregate upward revision to August and September change our picture of the labor market in the late summer and early fall.

4 Nov 2019 Are Markets Eyeing a Bottom in EZ GDP Growth? (Publication Centre)

We have spent the past few weeks shifting our story on the EZ economy from one focused on slowing growth and downside risks to a more balanced outlook. It seems that markets are starting to agree with us.

4 February 2019 Behind the Wild, Unsustainable Jobs Numbers, Wage Gains are Rising (Publication Centre)

Where to start with the January employment report, where all the key numbers were off-kilter in one way or another?

4 Feb 2020 Early PBoC Rate Cut Confirms Official Worry Over Virus fallout (Publication Centre)

The PBoC yesterday cut its 7-day and 14-day reverse repo rate by 10bp, to 2.40% and 2.55% respectively, while injecting RMB 1.2T through open market operations.

4 Sep 2020 Chile's Central Bank to Keep Rates on Hold for the Foreseeable Future (Publication Centre)

Recent hard data have confirmed the severe shock from Corona to the Chilean economy in Q2.

6 Nov 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Improving, Thanks to Better Fundamentals (Publication Centre)

Recently released data for Q3 in Brazil have surprised to the upside, but the outlook is darkening for late Q4 and early next year.

30 October 2018 Policymakers in Chile and Colombia Opting for Divergent Paths, For Now (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures remain under control in most LatAm economies, allowing central banks to keep interest rates on hold, despite the challenging external environment.

6 Sept 2019 Don't be Swayed if August Payrolls Jump a Real Slowdown is Coming (Publication Centre)

We're nudging up our forecast for today's August payroll number to 180K, in the wake of the ADP report.

30 October 2017 A Year from now, the Fed Will be Tightening, with More to Come (Publication Centre)

Cast your mind forward to late October 2018. The Fed is preparing to meet next week. What will the economy look like? The key number is three.

5 December 2017 The PMI Signals Construction has Stabilised, but Won't Recover Soon (Publication Centre)

November's Markit/CIPS construction report brings hope that the sector no longer is contracting. The PMI increased to a five-month high of 53.1 in November from 50.8 in October, exceeding the 52-mark that in practice has separated expansion from contraction.

30 Sept 2019 A Reminder of The Case Against Cutting Bank Rate (Publication Centre)

A dovish speech by external MPC member Michael Saunders was the primary catalyst for a renewed fall in interest rate expectations last week.

5 Dec 2019 The Downshift in ADP Employment Probably is Signal, not Noise (Publication Centre)

We were worried about downside risk to yesterday's ADP employment measure, but the 67K increase in November private payrolls was at the very bottom of our expected range.

5 Dec 2019 Would the Conservatives Really Run a Tight Fiscal Ship? (Publication Centre)

Over the summer, both Chancellor Javid and PM Johnson appeared to be repositioning the Conservatives, claiming that the era of austerity was over and that higher levels of spending and investment were justified.

30 Sept 2019 Brazil's Labour Market Recovery Is Gathering Pace Q4 will Be Better (Publication Centre)

Economic data released last week underscored that Brazil's economic recovery is continuing; the effect of recent bold rate cuts and improving domestic fundamentals will further support the gradual recovery of the labour market.

30 Oct. 2015 Can the Recovery in Business Investment Maintain Its Pace? (Publication Centre)

Business investment has punched above its weight in the economic recovery from the crash of 2008; annual real growth in capex has averaged 5% over the last five years, greatly exceeding GDP growth of 2%. This recovery is unlikely to grind to a halt soon, since profit margins are still high and borrowing costs will remain low. But corporate balance sheets are not quite as robust as they seem, while capex in the investment-intensive oil sector still has a lot further to fall.

5 December 2018 China and U.S. Agree a Truce Exports Still Face Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Data last Friday showed Japan's labour market trends deteriorating.

5 Feb 2020 BoJ Reaction to the Coronavirus Could Damage Activity, Perversely (Publication Centre)

We've previously highlighted the pro-cyclical elements of the BoJ's framework, but it's worth repeating, when an economic shock comes along.

30 Oct 2020 More QE is Coming in December (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB meeting conformed to the consensus and our own expectations. The central bank left its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged, at 0.00% and -0.5% respectively, and also maintained the pace and level of its QE programs.

30 Oct 2019 The Fed will Ease Today, but will Signal a Pause Unless Growth Tanks (Publication Centre)

The stage is set for the Fed to ease by 25bp today, but to signal that further reductions in the funds rate would require a meaningful deterioration in the outlook for growth or unexpected downward pressure on inflation.

30 Oct 2020 What's Happening to Wages? (Publication Centre)

Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.

7 Aug 2020 Brazil Likely will Keep Rates on Hold, as Long as the Economy Recovers (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board-- COPOM--met expectations on Wednesday, voting unanimously to cut the Selic rate by 25bp to 2.00%.

7 Aug 2020 A Modest Rise in Payrolls Look Likely, but Big Risks in Both Directions (Publication Centre)

The final Monitor before our summer break is characterized by great uncertainty.

5 Feb 2020 A Poor Finish to 2019 for Brazil's Industry, COPOM to Cut Rates (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production report, released yesterday, confirmed that the recovery was stuttering at the end of last year.

30 Sept 2019 Follow the Numbers for Clues to Mr. Trump's Impeachment Fate (Publication Centre)

We have no way of knowing what will be the final outcome of the impeachment inquiry now underway in the House of Representatives, but we are pretty sure that the first key stage will end with a vote to send the President for trial in the Senate.

6 Sept 2019 Chile's Central Bank Cuts Rates and will Act if the Trade War Escalates (Publication Centre)

Chile's economy started the third quarter decently, after taking a series of hits, including low commodity prices and the slowdown of the global economy.

5 April 2019 Payrolls Probably Failed to Return Fully to Trend in March (Publication Centre)

We set out in detail yesterday, here, why we think the official payroll number today will be better than the 129K ADP reading; we look for 160K.

5 April 2019 The RBI is Playing with Fire Inflation Will Soon Rear its Ugly Head (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India lowered the benchmark repurchase rate by another 25 basis points yesterday, to 6.00%, as widely expected.

31 January 2019 Powell Says No Fed Put, but Stocks Jump and the Curve Steepens (Publication Centre)

The FOMC has gone all-in, more or less, on the idea that the headwinds facing the economy mean that the hiking cycle is over.

6 Oct 2020 Korea's Export Recovery in Q3 was Brisk... but the Easy Bit is Now Over (Publication Centre)

Korean exports ended the third quarter on a solid note, though nowhere near as strongly as the headline growth rate suggested.

4 Sept 2019 The Manufacturing Rollover Worsens Blame the Trade War (Publication Centre)

We have argued for some time that much of the early phase of the downturn in global manufacturing was due to the weakening of China's economic cycle, rather than the trade war.

6 Nov 2020 German Manufacturing Should Remain a Bright Spot in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in Germany maintained momentum at the end of Q3.

6 Nov 2020 Powell Begs for More Fiscal Action, but More QE is Coming, Either Way (Publication Centre)

The Fed's inaction yesterday was no surprise, but it doesn't necessarily tell us anything about what will happen over the next few months.

4 Sep 2020 Downside Risk for August Payrolls, September Likely Weaker Still (Publication Centre)

Two approaches to forecasting payrolls have been the most useful in recent months, and both point to August payrolls rising by less than the 1,350K consensus; our forecast is 750K.

5 Aug 2020 Upside Risk for ADP Today, but the Uncertainty is Great (Publication Centre)

The advance indicators of July payrolls are wildly contradictory, so you should be prepared for anything from a consensus-busting jump to a renewed outright drop, in both Friday's official numbers and today's ADP report.

6 Oct 2020 More Evidence that the Strength of the EZ Recovery is Ebbing (Publication Centre)

The PMIs have had a hard time this year.

31 August 2018 Did Eurozone Core Inflation Decline Slightly in August (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance CPI data in Germany suggest that inflation fell slightly in August.

30 Sept 2020 German Core Inflation Seems to be Falling, will it Sway the ECB (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance CPI data in Germany offer a slight victory for ECB doves, and forecasters eyeing further stimulus from the central bank between now and the end of the year.

30 Sept 2020 ADP Set to Report Rising Payrolls, but Momentum is Fading (Publication Centre)

ADP's measure of private payrolls has undershot the initial official estimate in each of the past five months.

5 Dec 2019 Growth in EZ Services Activity is Slowing, but Not Crashing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data showed that the euro area PMIs were a bit stronger than initially estimated in November.

31 Jan 2020 Lower Potential Growth Estimates Point to Further Passivity on the MPC (Publication Centre)

The MPC's decision yesterday was a "dovish hold", designed to keep market interest rates at current stimulative levels and to preserve the option of cutting Bank Rate swiftly and without surprise, if the economy fails to rebound in Q1.

31 January 2017 Will Faster Wage Growth Finally Trigger An Acceleration in the ECI? (Publication Centre)

The headline employment cost index has been remarkably dull recently, with three straight 0.6% quarterly increases. The consensus forecast for today's report, for the three months to December, is for the same again.

31 Jan 2020 The Wage Growth Gap Persists: No Sign Yet of a Labor Scarcity Premium (Publication Centre)

It's a myth that the 10-ye ar decline in the unemployment rate has not driven up the pace of wage growth.

8 July 2020 Watch Bank Lending, a Sustained Drop Would Trigger More QE (Publication Centre)

The stock of bank lending to businesses is on course to fall in June, after a modest increase in May and huge jumps in March and April.

6 Apr 2020 Britain Won't Fare Better than the Rest of Europe in Q2 (Publication Centre)

The U.K. services sector has vanished overnight, following the introduction of tough restrictions on everyday life to stem the spread of Covid-19.

3 May 2019 Inventories Could Spoil the Party for the EZ Economy in Q2 and Q3 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in the Eurozone are still suffering, but yesterday's final PMI data for April offered a few bright spots.

3 May 2019 Expect Solid April Payrolls, but Downside Risk for Hourly Wages (Publication Centre)

A robust April payroll number today is a good bet, but a gain in line with the 275K ADP reading probably is out of reach.

3 Mar 2020 Which Covid-19 Data Matter More, New Cases or Log-Levels (Publication Centre)

Something of a debate appears to be underway in markets over the "correct" way to look at the coronavirus data.

3 November 2017 Expecting Rocketing Payrolls, AHE and Unemployment to Disappoint? (Publication Centre)

We expect a 350K print for October payrolls today. The ADP report was stronger than we expected, suggesting that the post-hurricane rebound will recover more of the ground lost in September than we initially expected.

3 October 2017 EZ Manufacturing is Helping to Propel the Cyclical Upturn (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in the Eurozone remained a strong driver of GDP growth in the third quarter. The headline EZ manufacturing PMI rose to 58.1 in September, from 57.4 in August, only a tenth below the initial estimate 58.2.

3 Sept 2019 If China Doesn't Budge as Tariffs Rise, Mr. Trump will Blink, Eventually (Publication Centre)

After a week--yes, a whole week!--with no significant new developments in the trade war with China--it's worth stepping back and asking a couple of fundamental questions, which might give us some clues as to what will happen over the months ahead.

3 Sept 2019 Don't Rely on the Manufacturing PMI for an Accurate Read in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The fall in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI to 47.4 in August--its lowest level since July 2012--from 48.0 in July suggests that pre-Brexit stockpiling isn't countering the hit to demand from Brexit uncertainty and the global industrial slowdown.

3 October 2018 Chuseok Hit Clouds the End of Marginally Stronger Q3 in Korea (Publication Centre)

Korean industrial production surprised to the upside in August, according to data released yesterday.

3 Mar 2020 Expect a "One and Done" Virus Response from the MPC (Publication Centre)

The Bank of England issued a statement yesterday that it is "working closely with HM Treasury and the FCA--as well as our international partners--to ensure all necessary steps are taken to protect financial and monetary stability".

3 Mar 2020 Covid-19 is Both a Supply and Demand Shock to the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs confirmed that all remained calm in the EZ industrial sector through February.

3 July 2020 Can Any Valuable Information be Extracted from the PMIs? (Publication Centre)

The release today of the final reading of the composite PMI for June will provoke further debate over its usefulness in charting the economy's recovery from the Covid-19 shock.

3 July 2017 Three Jobs Reports in Nine Weeks set to Shift Market Rate Expectations (Publication Centre)

The next nine weeks bring three jobs reports, which will determine whether the Fed hikes again in September, as we expect, and will also help shape market expectations for December and beyond.

3 January 2018 The Manufacturing Upswing Continues no Sign of Weakening (Publication Centre)

The Manufacturing Upswing Continues; no Sign of Weakening

3 July 2020 We're Now Slightly Less Optimistic about Inventories in the EZ (Publication Centre)

This week's economic reports have provided clear, and uplifting, evidence that EZ consumers came out swinging as lockdowns were lifted.

3 June 2019 Economic Data Still Don't Warrant the Gilt Market's Gloom (Publication Centre)

Gilts continued to rally last week, with 10-year yields dropping to their lowest since October 2016, and the gap between two-year and 10-year yields narrowing to the smallest margin since September 2008.

3 June 2020 Korean Exports Stabilised in May, but Q2 will Still be a Wash Out (Publication Centre)

Korea's economy is shaping up largely in line with our expectations for the second quarter, with private consumption recovering, but exports and investment tanking.

3 June 2020 ADP Likely to Report a 10M Drop in May Payrolls, Risks in Both Directions (Publication Centre)

We're expecting ADP today to report a 10M drop in private payrolls in May, but investors should be braced for surprises, in either direction, because ADP's methodology is not clear.

3 Sept 2019 Still Mostly Bad News in the Eurozone Manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final EZ manufacturing PMIs for August provided little in the way of relief for the beleaguered industrial sector.

30 April 2018 The Q1 Slowdown Wasn't Just Weather-related (Publication Centre)

Last week's preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP has extinguished any lingering chance that the MPC might raise interest rates at its next meeting on May 10.

6 Mar 2020 The Near-Term Fiscal Boost from the Budget Will Be Modest (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak faces a tough first gig on Wednesday, when he delivers the long-awaited Budget.

6 March 2018 Andean Economies are Improving, but Protectionist Threats Are a Risk (Publication Centre)

Chile's IMACEC economic activity index rose 3.9% year-over-year in January, up from 2.6% in December, and 2.9% on average in Q4, thanks to strong mining output growth and solid commercial, manufacturing and services activity.

30 June 2020 Covid-19 has had a Limited Impact on German Core inflation, for Now (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance CPI data in Germany suggest that EZ inflation is now rebounding slightly.

6 March 2019 ISM Non-manufacturing Rebound is Welcome Further Gains Unlikely (Publication Centre)

The rebound in the ISM non-manufacturing index in February was in line with our forecast, but behind the strong headline, the employment index dropped to an eight-month low.

6 Mar 2020 Job Gains Likely Slowed Last Month, but the Covid-19 Hit is Still to Come (Publication Centre)

We think today's February payroll number will be reported at about 140K, undershooting the 175K consensus.

6 June 2018. Brazil's Industrial Sector Maintained Momentum in April, Will it Last? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report in Brazil was sizzling. Headline output jumped 0.8% month- to-month in April--well above the 0.4% consensus-- pushing the year-over-year rate up to 8.9%, a five- year high.

US 15 September 2017 Core CPI Mean-Reverts, Hefty Storm-Induced Increases Ahead? (Publication Centre)

The run of soft core CPI numbers is over. The average 0.18% increase over the past two months probably is a good indication of the underlying trend -- the prints would have been close to this pace in both months had it not been for wild swings in the lodging component -- and the other one-time oddities of recent months' have faded.

6 May 2019 Payrolls Can't Sustain April's Pace, but Unemployment will Keep Falling (Publication Centre)

It would be astonishing if the May and June payroll numbers looked much like April's strong data, at least in the private sector.

30 June 2020 Case Growth Might be Starting to Slow in Arizona, Others Later (Publication Centre)

It's possible that first hints of better news ahead in the Covid surge in the South and West are beginning to emerge in the data.

30 June 2020 Argentina's Economic Nightmare will Continue, Despite Bottoming in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that Argentina's economy remains a mess.

30 Jan 2020 Fed Policy Still "Appropriate", FOMC Watching Virus Story "Very Carefully" (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's FOMC , announcing a unanimous vote for no change in the funds rate, is almost identical to December's.

30 Jan 2020 Don't Panic Over the Slump in EZ M3 Growth, M1 Still Looks Firm (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the euro area were mixed.

30 April 2019 No Boost to Business Confidence from the Brexit Delay (Publication Centre)

News that the U.K.'s departure from the E.U. has been delayed by six months, unless MPs ratify the existing deal sooner, appears to have done little to revive confidence among businesses.

30 Jan 2020 The Chancellor's GDP Growth Target is Practically Unachievable (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Javid told the Financial Times earlier this month that he wants to lift the rate of GDP growth to between 2.7% and 2.8%, the average rate in the 50 years following the Second World War.

30 January 2019 A Mixed Bag of PMI Readings in China won't Put Off Fresh Stimulus (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs for January, due out tomorrow, will give the first indications of how the economy started the year.

30 July 2020 No Changes Yet from the Fed, but the Door is Open for the Fall (Publication Centre)

The Fed made no changes to policy yesterday, as was almost universally expected.

30 January 2019 Did the "Yellow Vests" Ruin French GDP Growth in Q4? (Publication Centre)

Today's barrage of data kicks off a couple of busy days in the Eurozone economic calendar.

3 January 2018 See no Evil, Hear no Evil in Eurozone Manufacturing? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone manufacturing sector finished 2017 on a strong note. The headline PMI increased to a cyclical high of 60.6 in December, from 60.1 in November, in line with the initial estimate.

3 Jan 2020 A Strategic Look at the Medium- Term Outlook for CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation looks set to remain below the 2% target this year, driven by sterling's recent appreciation and lower energy prices.

29 July 2020 The Good and Bad in the Recovery of Chinese Industrial Profits (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits in China continued to strengthen in June, rising by 11.5% year-over-year, marking an acceleration from 6.0% in the previous month.

29 July 2020 Disposable Incomes are Heading for their Biggest Annual Post-War Drop (Publication Centre)

The 2008-to-09 recession was a mild experience for most households which remained employed and benefited from a huge decline in mortgage rates.

29 Jan 2020 Will PM Johnson Double Down or Dither on Brexit this Year? (Publication Centre)

The real Boris Johnson will have to stand up this year.

29 May 2019 Will Consumers Save Less this Year, in Order to Spend More (Publication Centre)

While businesses--and farmers--fret over the damage already wrought by the trade war with China and the further pain to come, consumers are remarkably happy.

29 May 2020 Continuing Claims are Falling, but the Downshift is Modest, so Far (Publication Centre)

We learned yesterday that the patchy but widespread reopening of the economy is triggering the first wavelet of rehiring.

29 Nov 2019 Japan is in for a Big Q4 GDP Hit, as Abe's Tax-Smoothing has Fallen Flat (Publication Centre)

Retail sales values in Japan plunged by 14.4% month-on-month in October, reversing September's 7.2% spike twice over.

29 Nov 2019 Banxico will Keep Cutting Rates, but Prudence will Prevail in the Near Term (Publication Centre)

Data released this week have confirmed that the Mexican economy is struggling and that the near-term outlook remains extremely challenging.

29 May 2020 Expect Another BoK Cut, as the Data will Continue to Disappoint (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday voted unanimously to lower its base rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.50%.

29 Jan 2020 Fed on Hold, Awaiting Macro or Virus Developments, IOER to Rise (Publication Centre)

The Fed will do nothing to the funds rate or its balance sheet expansion program today.

29 August 2017 No Hints on the Future of QE from Mr. Draghi in Jackson Hole (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi snubbed investors looking for hints on policy and the euro in his Jackson Hole address--see here--on Friday.

28 Sept 2020 Korea's Second Wave is Almost Over, but the Hit will Bleed into Q4 (Publication Centre)

Consumer confidence in Korea plummeted in September for the first time since its first wave of Covid-19 earlier this year, in line with our view that the August increase was a fluke.

28 Oct 2020 What's Really Happening to Home Prices--and What's Coming Next (Publication Centre)

The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices don't measure the same thing in the same way, never agree with each other, and often contradict themselves from month-to-month.

28 Oct 2020 Korea's Q3 GDP Bounce is Likely to be Downgraded, Q4 will be Softer (Publication Centre)

Korea is officially out of recession, with GDP rising by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, following the 3.2% plunge in Q2.

28 September 2018 Confidence is Starting to Fray as the Brexit Deadline Nears (Publication Centre)

The persistence of no-deal Brexit risk has taken a toll on confidence across the economy over the last month.

28 September. 2016 Expect Weak Headline Durable Orders (Publication Centre)

A third outright decline in the past four months seems a decent bet for today's August durable goods orders, thanks to the malign influence of the downward trend in orders for civilian aircraft. The global airline cycle is maturing, and orders for both Boeing and Airbus aircraft have been slowing for some time.

29 August 2017 Hurricane Harvey will Depress September Output and Payrolls (Publication Centre)

The terrible scenes from Texas will play out in the economic data over the next few weeks.

29 Aug 2019 Is the Growth Drag from Foreign Trade set to Persist (Publication Centre)

Net foreign trade was a drag on GDP growth in the second quarter, subtracting 0.7 percentage points from the headline number.

29 Nov 2019 The Recovery in Sentiment Will Be Fleeting, if the Tories' Majority is Small (Publication Centre)

The emergence last month of a new E.U. Withdrawal Agreement that has a strong chance of being ratified by MPs appears to have given a small boost to business confidence.

29 Oct 2019 Can we Rely on M1 as a Leading Indicator in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ money supply data confirmed that liquidity conditions in the private sector improved in Q3, despite the dip in the headline.

3 Dec 2019 Can Labour Continue to Reduce the Tories' Poll Lead? (Publication Centre)

The political momentum in the run-up to the election now lies with Labour.

3 April 2019 ADP set to Signal Mean Reversion in Payrolls After Wild Months (Publication Centre)

We see no reason to think that the recent volatility in payrolls--the 311K leap in January, followed by the 20K February gain--will continue.

3 April 2019 A Decent Industrial Report in Brazil, but the Rebound Remains Subpar (Publication Centre)

Brazil's February industrial production numbers, labour market data, and sentiment indicators are gradually providing clarity on the underlying pace of activity growth, pointing to some red flags.

3 Dec 2019 A Look at the Bright Side in the EZ Manufacturing PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs confirmed that the headline index in the euro area rebounded further last month.

3 December 2018 Tariff Deferment Shows Both Sides Want a Deal, but it Will Take Time (Publication Centre)

The agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 is a deferment of disaster rather than a fundamental rebuilding of the trading relationship between the U.S. and China.

3 Feb 2020 The Eurozone Economy all but Stalled at the End of 2019 (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance Q4 growth numbers in the EZ were a bit of a dumpster fire.

3 Feb 2020 Some Hopeful Signs are Emerging in the Coronavirus Data (Publication Centre)

The number of coronavirus cases continues to increase, but we're expecting to see signs that the number of new cases is peaking within the next two to three weeks.

3 Feb 2020 Improving Money and Credit Trends Point to Further MPC Inaction (Publication Centre)

December's money and credit data support the MPC's decision last week to hold back from providing the economy with more stimulus.

3 April 2018 GDP Growth in the Eurozone is Slowing, but Not Collapsing (Publication Centre)

The economic data in the Eurozone were mixed while we were away.

3 Apr 2020 Unemployment Is Soaring, How Far Will it Rise? (Publication Centre)

The limited data available on the state of the labour market, since the government forced businesses to close two weeks ago, paint a disconcerting picture.

29 Oct 2020 The Record Surge in Q3 GDP Growth does not Reverse the Covid Hit (Publication Centre)

In order fully to reverse the fall in GDP in the first and second quarters, the third quarter needs to grow at a 45.7% annualized rate.

29 Oct 2019 Monetary Stimulus Alone Won't be Able to End the Next Recession (Publication Centre)

Monetary policy usually is the first line of defence whenever a recession hits.

29 Oct 2019 China's Economy Still on the Rocks, A Bit More Easing is on its Way (Publication Centre)

Our analysis of the Q3 activity and GDP data in yesterday's Monitor strongly suggests that China's authorities will soon ready further stimulus.

29 October 2018 The Glass is Half-Full for French and German Households (Publication Centre)

Friday's consumer sentiment data in the two main Eurozone economies were mixed.

29 Sept 2020 LatAm Central Banks have Closed the Door to Further Easing (Publication Centre)

Recent economic data in LatAm have alleviated concerns following weakness in the first half of the year, inflicted by Covid, and have even added some upside risks to our current-quarter growth calls for most economies.

29 September 2017 Inventories Look set to Boost Q3 GDP Growth Substantially (Publication Centre)

With almost two thirds of the nominal data for the third quarter now available, we can make a stab at the contribution of inventories to real GDP growth.

29 Sept 2020 Small Business Employment is Shrinking, October Payrolls to Fall (Publication Centre)

Our latest round-up of the key near-real-time data is not encouraging.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim, but probably overstates payroll weakness.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Tankan points to a q/q contraction for capex in Q3, but GDP growth overall will stay strong. Japan's unemployment steady, but details bode ill for Q4. September's full-month data dispel some export worries in Korea; expect a Q3 lift from net trade. Korea's PMI pours cold water on the spectacular jobs report for August. September is as bad as it gets for Korean CPI deflation.

6 May 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector Collapsed in March, It will Slide Further in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak severely dented industrial activity in Brazil.

9 Dec 2019 Germany's Economy is Still Either in, or Very Close to, Recession (Publication Centre)

The hard data in Germany took a turn for the worse at the start of Q4. The outlook for consumers' spending was dented by the October plunge in retail sales--see here-- and on Friday, the misery spilled over into manufacturing.

6 May 2020 ADP Today Likely will Understate the Hit to April Payrolls (Publication Centre)

Today's April ADP employment report likely will understate the scale of the net payroll losses which will be reported Friday by the BLS.

9 Dec 2019 Fluke or Real? Don't Leap to Conclusions Either Way, Yet (Publication Centre)

We have two competing explanations for the unexpected leap in November payrolls. First, it was a fluke, so it will either be revised down substantially, or will be followed by a hefty downside correction in December.

9 August 2018 June GDP Data to Show Economy has Little Underlying Momentum (Publication Centre)

Investors with long sterling positions should not pin their hopes on Friday's GDP report to reverse some of the losses endured over the last week.

6 Aug 2020 The Recovery will Decelerate Sharply in the Autumn (Publication Centre)

A range of indicators show that the pace of the economic recovery shifted up a gear in July, when all shops were open for the entire month, and most consumer services providers finally were permitted to reopen.

8 Sept 2020 Private Payrolls Slowing, September Likely to be Weaker than August (Publication Centre)

The tiny headline consensus beat in the August payrolls numbers is nothing to get excited about, and neither is the unexpected drop in the headline unemployment rate.

9 April 2019 February GDP Data to Show Growth only Slightly Below Trend in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Economic data have yielded the limelight in recent months to Brexit news and, alas, we doubt that February's GDP data, released on Wednesday, will reclaim investors' attention.

6 August 2018 Don't Worry About July's Payroll Numbers, Trend is Still 200K-plus (Publication Centre)

We are not worried, at all, by the slowdown in headline payroll growth to 157K in July from an upwardly-revised 248K in June.

9 Dec 2019 Japan's Fiscal Boost will Disappoint, Capacity Constraints are a Drag (Publication Centre)

In Friday's Monitor we analysed the draft Japanese budget, as reported by Bloomberg. We suggested that the GDP bang-for-government-expenditure- buck is likely to be less than that implied by the authorities' forecasts.

9 December. 2016 The Oil Hit Spread Widely Across the Economy - Now, it's Over (Publication Centre)

A core element of our relatively upbeat macro view before the implementation of fiscal stimulus under the new administration is that the ending of the drag from falling capex in the oil sector will have quite wide, positive implications for growth. The recovery in direct oil sector spending is clear enough; it will just track the rising rig count, as usual.

6 Dec 2019 Only Limited Upside for Sterling in the Event of a Tory Election Win (Publication Centre)

For sterling traders, no election news is good news.

6 December 2018 No Real Signs of the Slowdown Story in the Labor Market Data (Publication Centre)

Behind all the talk of slowdowns and Fed pauses, we see no sign that the labor market is loosening beyond a very modest uptick in jobless claims, and even that looks suspicious.

9 Dec 2019 The Consensus Looks too Downbeat on October GDP (Publication Centre)

The release of October's GDP report on Tuesday likely will be overshadowed by campaigning ahead of Thursday's general election.

6 Dec 2019 EZ Households Stood Tall in Q3, Is the Trend in Consumption Rising (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed Q3 growth data in the Eurozone offered no surprises in terms of the headline.

6 Dec 2019 Abenomics 2.0 this is not, 2020 GDP Growth will Slow Sharply (Publication Centre)

We have consistently flagged the likelihood that Japan's government would boost spending after the consumption tax hike was implemented.

6 Dec 2019 Downside Risk for November Payrolls, Ex-GM, we Expect Just 60K (Publication Centre)

October payrolls were stronger than we expected, rising 128K, despite a 46K hit from the GM strike.

6 Aug 2020 Strong EZ PMIs and Retail Sales Overstate the Economy's Strength (Publication Centre)

Judging solely by yesterday's PMI and retail sales data, the EZ economy has shaken off the virus and is going from strength to strength.

8 Sept 2020 July GDP to Show V-Shaped Recovery Remains Elusive (Publication Centre)

We expect July's GDP report, released on Friday, to show that overall output rose by about 7.0% month-to-month, bringing it to 11.5% below its pre-Covid peak.

8 March 2018 Labor Demand Remains Strong, Can Supply Keep Up? (Publication Centre)

ADP's report of a 235K increase in private payrolls in February is not definitive evidence of anything, but it is consistent with the idea that labor demand remains very strong.

8 May 2019 Don't Extrapolate from April's Double-Digit Decline in Car Sales (Publication Centre)

The 10.3% year-over-year decline in private new car registrations in April likely is not a sign that the trend in either vehic le sales or consumers' overall spending is taking a turn f or the worse.

6 Apr 2020 The Eurozone PMIs are Breaking Records, and Not for the Better (Publication Centre)

Friday's final PMI data for March were even more terrifying than the advance numbers. The composite index in the euro area collapsed to 29.7, from 51.6 in February, lower than the consensus 31.4. A downward revision was coming.

8 June 2020 Will the MPC Swap Its QE Machine Gun for a Bazooka? (Publication Centre)

So far, the MPC has been more timid with unconventional stimulus than other central banks. At the end of May, central bank reserves equalled 29.7% of four-quarter rolling GDP in the U.K., compared to 32.7% in the U.S. and 46.7% in the Eurozone.

8 June 2020 Payrolls Set to Rise Again in June, but Don't Expect a Quick Full Recovery (Publication Centre)

The single most surprising U.S. economic report ever published likely is explained very simply: We know a great deal about the numbers of people losing jobs, but not much about people finding jobs.

8 June 2017 Stepping on the First Rung of the Housing Ladder isn't Getting Easier (Publication Centre)

Many observers hoped that the silver lining of a slowdown in house price growth this year would be that more first-time buyers could step onto the first rung of the housing ladder. Instead, purchasing a first home has become even harder for FTBs with modest deposits.

8 June 2018 Did German Manufacturers Take a Long Break in Q1 and Q2? (Publication Centre)

New orders data increasingly suggest that German manufacturers all but shut their production lines at the start of the year.

8 June 2018 Q2 Growth is Looking Very Strong, but Inventories Set to Disappoint? (Publication Centre)

The latest iteration of the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model of second quarter GDP growth shows the economy expanding at a 4.5% annualized rate.

6 May 2020 China's Trade Woes Probably Came Back with a Vengeance in April (Publication Centre)

The collapse in global demand last month will have derailed China's trade recovery, causing exports to drop unpleasantly month-on-month after the bounce of around 45% in March; the January/February breakdown is not provided, so we can't be sure of the extent of the March rebound.

8 Nov 2019 Don't Expect the MPC to Maintain its Dovish Bias Next Year (Publication Centre)

Investors now see a 50/50 chance of the MPC cutting Bank Rate within the next nine months, following the slightly dovish minutes of the MPC's meeting, and its new forecasts.

8 Oct 2019 Does China Want a Comprehensive Trade Deal with Trump (Publication Centre)

We have argued for a while that China and the U.S. will not reach a comprehensive trade deal until after the next election.

6 Aug 2020 ADP Signals Only a Modest Rise in July Payrolls, August will be Weaker (Publication Centre)

Our hopes of another solid increase in payrolls in July were severely dented by yesterday's ADP report, showing that private payrolls rose only 167K in July.

8 Sept 2020 Don't Give up Hope of a Rebound in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German manufacturing data were a damp squib. Industrial production, including construction, rose by 1.2% month-to-month in July, lifting the year- over-year rate by 1.4pp, to -10.0%, undershooting the consensus and our own expectation of a rise of 5%.

8 November. 2016 If Clinton Loses, Most U.S. Forecasting Models Will be Wrong (Publication Centre)

We are not political analysts or psephologists, but we note that each of the nine separate election forecasting models tracked by the New York Times suggests that Hillary Clinton will be president, with odds ranging from 67% to greater than 99%.

8 Nov 2019 Markets Like "Phase One" Trade, but the Next Stages Will be Difficult (Publication Centre)

Markets clearly love the idea that the "Phase One" trade deal with China will be signed soon, at a location apparently still subject to haggling between the parties.

8 Nov 2019 About that German Recession in Q2 and Q3...It's is a Very Close Call (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in Germany endured another miserable quarter in Q3.

8 Nov 2019 Inflation in Brazil Supports a Dovish BCB, Mexican Capex Rebounded (Publication Centre)

Headline inflation in Brazil remained low in October, and even breached the lower bound of the BCB's target range.

9 Jan 2020 Guess What, Manufacturing in Germany Remained Weak in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The German manufacturing sector appears to have settled into an equilibrium of sustained misery.

6 Feb 2020 Korea's Trade Data for January Show a Modest Virus Hit, For Now (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade data for January provided the first real glimpse of the potential hit to international flows from the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.

9 Nov 2020 German Manufacturing has Plenty of Room for Improvement in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The official industrial production data in Germany are still underperforming, relative to leading indicators. Friday's report showed that output edged higher by 1.6% month-to-month in September, lifting the year-over- year rate to -7.3%, from -9.6% in August, undershooting the consensus for the second month in a row.

6 July 2020 June Likely is the Payroll High-Water Mark, as the Second Wave Spreads (Publication Centre)

Let's get straight to the point: It's very unlikely that July's payroll numbers will be as good as June's. Too many direct and indirect indicators of employment and broader economic activity are now moving in the wrong direction.

9 November 2018 Stockbuilding Won't Temper the Near-Term Slowdown (Publication Centre)

A flawed theory still is circulating that the economy might outperform over the next two quarters because firms will stockpile goods due to the risk of a no-deal Brexit.

9 Nov 2020 Expectations of an End to Furlough Likely Cost More Jobs in October (Publication Centre)

Tuesday's labour market report looks set to show that job losses continued to accumulate over the autumn, albeit at a measured pace.

9 Nov 2020 China's Start to the Fourth Quarter wasn't as Solid as the PMIs Suggest (Publication Centre)

Small cracks continue to emerge in Chinese industry. While we were away, the official manufacturing PMI for October slipped to 51.4, following the jump to 51.5 in September.

6 July 2018 June Payroll Growth Likely Slowed, a Bit, Hourly Earnings are a Wild Card (Publication Centre)

The ADP private sector employment number was a bit weaker than we expected in May, and the undershoot relative to our forecast has pulled down our model's estimate for today's official number

9 March 2018 January's Production Rebound will Conceal a Manufacturing Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The industrial sector went from strength to strength in 2017. Year-over-year growth in production picked up to 2.1%--its highest rate since 2010--from 1.3% in 2016.

9 May 2018 The German Economy Finished Q1 on a Strong Note (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports showed that the German economy firmed at the end of Q1, but this doesn't change the story for a poor quarter overall.

9 Oct 2019 Car Output and Sales Data Point to Upside Risk to August's GDP (Publication Centre)

We look for August's GDP report, released on Thursday, to show that output held steady, following July's 0.3% month-to-month jump.

9 Oct 2020 The Second Wave of Layoffs Will Emerge in September's PAYE Data (Publication Centre)

Next week's labour market report likely will show that job cuts accelerated again, after a lull in the summer.

9 Sept 2019 The Trade War is Hurting Payroll Growth will Slow Further (Publication Centre)

Payroll growth in September and October probably won't be materially worse than August's meager 96K increase in private jobs.

9 Sept 2020 Caution Urged... The Slump in Japanese Wages is Far from Over (Publication Centre)

The escalation of the second wave of Covid-19 in Japan in July did little to stop the recovery in labour cash earnings growth.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Tankan reinforces our impression of a nasty Q2. China's manufacturing PMIs show why the authorities are eager for a trade deal. China's non-manufacturing sector holds steady for now. Korean exports disappointed in June, but this probably is as bad as it will get. Ignore Korea's volatile PMI readings... sentiment is improving gradually.

9 October 2018 Risks to the Consensus for August GDP Lie to the Upside (Publication Centre)

We expect August's GDP figures, released on Wednesday, to show that month-to-month growth slowed to 0.1%, from 0.3% in July.

6 June 2017 May Services PMI Dents Second Quarter Rebound Hopes (Publication Centre)

The fall in the services PMI to 53.8 in May, from 55.8 in April, is a setback for hopes that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 will be fleeting. Both business activity and orders rose at their slowest rates since February.

9 October 2018 German Manufacturing Slowed Sharply in Q3, Denting Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production data in Germany were better than we feared. Output slipped 0.3% month-to-month in August, depressing the year- over-rate to -0.4% from 1.6% in July, a minor fall given evidence of a big hit from weakness in the auto sector ahead of the EU emissions tests.

9 October 2018 PBoC RRR cut: The Lady Doth Protest too Much, Methinks (Publication Centre)

Over the weekend, the PBoC cut the RRR for the vast majority of banks. FX reserves data released shortly after suggested that the Bank already is propping up the currency.

6 July 2017 Downside Risk for June ADP Jobs, but Official Data Will be Stronger (Publication Centre)

Today's June ADP employment report likely will undershoot the 183K consensus, but we then expect the official payroll number tomorrow to surprise to the upside.

9 Mar 2020 January GDP to Highlight Pre- Virus Momentum in Growth (Publication Centre)

January's GDP report, released on Wednesday, was set to be one of the most important data releases of this year, due to its role in providing the first official steer on the economy's post-election performance.

9 January 2018 Now is Not the Time to Turn Upbeat on Productivity Growth (Publication Centre)

Last week's news that output per hour jumped by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q3--the biggest rise since Q2 2011--has fanned hopes that the underlying trend finally is improving.

9 July 2018 May GDP Data will have the Final Word on an August Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

Mark Carney revealed last week that recent data had given him "greater confidence" that the weakness of Q1 GDP was almost entirely due to severe weather.

9 July 2020 Further Stimulus Likely will be Needed in the Autumn Budget (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor's Summer Statement contained a targeted package of measures aiming to sustain employment and support the ailing hospitality sector. In total, these measures could inject up to £30B into the economy, depending on take-up by households and firms.

6 Feb 2020 Productivity Growth is Set to Slow After Last Year's Nine-Year High (Publication Centre)

Productivity likely rose by 1.7% last year, the best performance since 2010.

9 January 2018 Ignore November Dip in German Factory Orders Trend is Still Rising (Publication Centre)

The upturn in German manufacturing orders waned slightly towards the end of 2017; factory orders fell 0.4% month-to-month in November.

9 Jan 2020 Higher Investment Alone won't Solve the U.K.'s Productivity Problem (Publication Centre)

Productivity statistics released yesterday continued to paint a bleak picture. Output per worker rose by a mere 0.1% year-over-year in Q3, despite jumping by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter.

9 Jan 2020 Mortgage Demand Still Rising, Home Price Gains Set to Pick Up (Publication Centre)

The reported drop in mortgage applications over the holidays is now reversing, not that it ever mattered.

9 January 2017 Wage Growth is Emerging as a Clear and Present Inflation Threat (Publication Centre)

December's payroll numbers were unexciting, exactly matching the 175K consensus when the 19K upward revision to November is taken into account. Some of the details were a bit odd, though, notably the 63K jump in healthcare jobs, well above the 40K trend, and the 19K drop in temporary workers, compared to the typical 15K monthly gain.

9 June 2017 Markets Continue to Distrust Opinion Polls Indicating a Tight Race (Publication Centre)

The final flurry of opinion polls indicates that voting intentions have changed little over the last few days. The Conservatives have an average lead over Labour of 7.5% in the final p olls conducted by 10 different agencies, only slightly more than their 6.5% lead at the 2015 election.

6 February 2017 Soft January Hourly Earnings Will Prove Short-Lived (Publication Centre)

Markets over-reacted to the much smaller-than-expected 0.1% increase in January hourly earnings, in our view. We don't have a full explanation for the shortfall against our 0.5% forecast, but that doesn't make it wise to throw out the baby with the bathwater, making the de facto assumption that wage growth now won't accelerate in the future.

6 January 2017 Are Markets Complacent About the Chances of a 2017 Rate Hike? (Publication Centre)

Investors have treated the upbeat message of the Markit/CIPS PMIs this week with caution and continue to think that the chance that the MPC will raise interest rates this year is remote. Overnight index swap rates currently are pricing-in just a one-in-four chance of a 25 basis point increase in Bank Rate in 2017.

9 June 2020 The Severity of the Recession will Keep Inflation Low in the Andes (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus outbreak has pushed inflation lower in the Andean economies as the shock drives them into the deepest recession on record.

9 Mar 2020 Global Virus Cases Accelerating, but China and Korea Show it's Beatable (Publication Centre)

A third wave of Covid-19 outbreaks is now underway. The first, in China, is now under control, and the rate of increase of cases in South Korea has dropped sharply. The other second wave countries, Italy and Iran, are still struggling.

6 Jan 2020 Risks are Tilted to the Upside for this Week's EZ Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Friday's early EZ CPI data for December were red hot. Headline HICP inflation in Germany jumped to 1.5%, from 1.3% in November, while the headline rate in France increased by 0.4pp, to 1.6%.

6 Jan 2020 Markets in Defensive Crouch, Awaiting Iran's Response (Publication Centre)

It's hard to overstate the geopolitical importance of Friday's assassination of Qassim Soleimani, architect of Iran's external military activity for more than 20 years and perhaps the most powerful man in the country, after the Supreme Leader.

9 June 2020 Assessing the Magnitude of April's Collapse in GDP (Publication Centre)

April's GDP report probably will be the worst any of us will see in our lifetime.

4 March 2019 Is the Slowdown in Money Growth an Ominous Sign (Publication Centre)

January's money supply figures continued the nerve-jangling flow of data on the economy's momentum.

15 Apr 2020 Brazil's Economy will Rebound in Q3, but Bad Virus Policy is a Risk (Publication Centre)

The hard economic data in Brazil were relatively solid while we were off last week, supporting our view that the economy was experiencing a good spell at the start of the year just before the coronavirus hit.

12 July 2017 Wage Growth Likely will Remain too "Anaemic" for the Governor this Year (Publication Centre)

Mark Carney emphasised in his Mansion House speech last month that he wants wage growth to "begin to firm" from recent "anaemic" rates before voting to raise interest rates.

12 July 2017 Yellen Will Re-affirm Fed Policy. Expect no Revelations, or Dates (Publication Centre)

Chair Yellen has become quite good at not giving much away at her semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony.

12 July 2018 Brexit Risk is Starting to Take a Heavy Toll on Exports (Publication Centre)

Hopes that GDP growth might be boosted soon by a pick-up in net exports continue to be undermined by the latest data.

12 June 2018 Inflation Likely Held Steady in May, but a Brief Pick-up Lies Ahead (Publication Centre)

May's consumer price figures, released on Wednesday, likely will show that CPI inflation held steady at 2.4%--matching the consensus and the MPC's forecast--though the risks lie to the upside.

12 February 2019 Japan's GDP Bounce-Back in Q4 will be Driven by Domestic Demand (Publication Centre)

Japan's preliminary GDP report for Q4 is out on Thursday, and we expect to see a punchy number.

12 February 2018 The Next Round of Data Likely Will Dampen Inflation Fears, For a Time (Publication Centre)

It's hard to know what will stop the correction in the stock market, but we're pretty sure that robust economic data--growth, prices and/or wages--over the next few weeks would make things worse.

12 Dec 2019 China's Economic Targets will Remain a Political Affair for 2020 (Publication Centre)

China concludes its annual Central Economic Work Conference today, where the economic targets and the agenda for next year are set.

12 Dec 2019 The Fed is on Course to do Nothing for the Foreseeable Future (Publication Centre)

The FOMC did mostly what was expected yesterday, though we were a bit surprised that the single rate hike previously expected for next year has been abandoned.

12 December 2018 Is Britain now at the Steep Part of the Phillips Curve? (Publication Centre)

The sudden jump in the headline, three-month average, growth rate of average weekly wages to a 10-year high of 3.3% in October, from just 2.4% four months earlier, might indicate that the U.K. has reached the sharply upward-sloping part of the Phillips Curve.

12 Feb 2020 GDP Data Highlight Scope for a Consumer-led Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The latest GDP data confirm that the economy ended last year on a very weak note.

12 June 2019 EZ Equities are at the Mercy of Multiple Expansion in H2 (Publication Centre)

Judging by the headline performance metrics, EZ equity investors have little cause for worry.

12 June 2020 Brazil's Inflation is in Check, but the Pandemic at Large is a Risk (Publication Centre)

Brazilian political risk remains high, due mainly to President Bolsonaro's gross mismanagement of the Covid-19 crisis, but, as we have argued in previous Monitors, it is unlikely to deter policymakers from further near-term monetary easing.

12 March 2018 Weak Production Data Signal Soft January in Germany and France (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production headlines in the Eurozone were weak, but the details tell a more nuanced story.

12 March 2019 Strong January Retail Sales Can't Alone Rescue Q1 Consumption (Publication Centre)

The reported rebound in January retail sales was welcome, but the overshoot to consensus was matched, more or less, by the unexpected downward revisions to the December numbers.

12 May 2020 Brace for a GDP Drop of About 2.5% in Q1, Despite the Late Lockdown (Publication Centre)

The Q1 GDP figures, released on Wednesday, likely will show that the quarter-on-quarter decline in economic activity eclipsed the biggest decline in the 2008-to-09 recession--2.1% in Q4 2008--even though the U.K. went into lockdown towards the very end of the quarter.

12 May 2020 Downside Risk to April CPI from Rent, Apparel, Airline Fares, Lodging, Autos (Publication Centre)

The 0.1% dip in the core CPI in March was the first outright decline in three years, but we expect another-- and bigger--decline in today's April numbers.

12 March 2018 January Data Point to Slower GDP Growth in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Last week's official data supported our forecast that GDP growth likely will slow further in Q1, suggesting that a May rate hike is not the sure bet that markets assume.

12 March 2018 As Good as it Gets, Provided Participation Keeps Rising (Publication Centre)

It's hard to find anything to dislike in the February employment report.

12 June 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Took Another Big Step Towards Zero in May (Publication Centre)

We expect May's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that the headline rate of CPI inflation fell to a four-year low of 0.4% in May, from 0.8% in April.

12 June 2020 Rising Covid Hospitalizations in the South are About Spread, not Testing (Publication Centre)

We have drawn attention over the past couple of weeks in our daily Coronavirus Update to the rising trend in new cases in some states, mostly in the South.

12 Mar 2020 Fiscal Policy Levers Pulled Aggressively, Limiting Recession Risk (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak's "temporary, timely and targeted" fiscal response to the Covid-19 outbreak, and the BoE's accompanying stimulus measures, won't prevent GDP from falling over the next couple of months.

12 Mar 2020 The ECB will Deliver, a Rate Cut, More QE and TLTROs are Coming (Publication Centre)

The Fed paved the way with a 50bp emergency rate cut on March 3, with more to come.

12 Dec 2019 A Guide to the Drama on Election Night (Publication Centre)

Today's general election looks set to be a closer race than opinion polls suggested two weeks ago.

12 Aug 2020 What do EZ Investor Sentiment Data Tell Us about the Q3 Outlook (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ZEW investor sentiment report in Germany provided an upside surprise.

11 Nov 2019 German Net Exports fell in Q3, but less than in Q2, No recession then (Publication Centre)

Friday's data force us to walk back our recession call for Germany. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose in September, to €19.2B from €18.7B in August, lifted by a 1.5% month-to-month jump in exports, and the previous months' numbers were revised up significantly.

11 Nov 2019 Sharp Fall in CPI Inflation in October to Underline Below-Target Outlook (Publication Centre)

October's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, likely will show that CPI inflation has continued to drift further below the 2% target

11 Nov 2020 China's October Price Misses are Unlikely to Open the Rate Cut Door (Publication Centre)

China's inflation data yesterday were disappointing, but market's knee-jerk view of what they mean for PBoC action is unwarranted.

11 Nov 2020 Unemployment Will Peak at a Lower Rate than After the Last Recession (Publication Centre)

The labour market has continued to hold up better than we and most other forecasters feared at the start of the pandemic.

11 Nov 2019 AU.S.-Sino Trade Truce will Help to Offset Domestic LatAm Shocks (Publication Centre)

The apparent thaw in the U.S.-China trade dispute is great news for LatAm, particularly for the Andean economies, which are highly dependent on commodity prices and the health of the world's two largest economies

11 May 2020 The Labor Market is Worse than April's Headlines Suggest (Publication Centre)

Hideous though the official April payroll numbers were, the chances are that they'll be revised down.

11 Mar 2020 If Discretionary Spending Tracks the 9,11 and 2008 Paths, Look Out (Publication Centre)

It's just not possible to forecast the reaction of businesses and consumers to the coronavirus outbreak.

11 Mar 2020 Time for the Government to Reveal its Virus Response (Publication Centre)

We expect the Budget today to underwhelm investors who are eager to see a quick and powerful government response to the coronavirus outbreak.

11 March 2019 Labor Demand Slowing, but February Payrolls Overstate the Downshift (Publication Centre)

The 20K increase in February payrolls is not remotely indicative of the underlying trend, and we see no reason to expect similar numbers over the next few months.

11 May 2017 A Poor Q1 for French Industrial Production, but Q2 will be Better (Publication Centre)

French manufacturing came roaring back at the end of Q1. Industrial production jumped 2.0% month-to- month in March, driving the year-over-year rate higher to +2.0%, from a revised -0.7% in February.

11 Nov 2020 What Does a Quick Roll-Out of a Vaccine Mean for the Economy (Publication Centre)

In yesterday's Monitor--see here--we discussed the three main questions for investors in relation to the news that an effective Covid-19 vaccine is now imminent.

11 Oct 2019 Core Inflation is Still Rising, Despite September's Soft Data (Publication Centre)

The undershoot in the September core CPI does not change our view that the trend in core inflation is rising, and is likely to surprise substantially to the upside over the next six-to-12 months.

11 Sept 2019 The Labour Market no Longer Looks Bulletproof (Publication Centre)

A cursory glance at July's labour market report gives no cause for alarm. The headline, three-month average, unemployment rate returned to 3.8% in July, after edging up to 3.9% in June.

11 September 2018 EZ Investors are Still Depressed, Probably Excessively So (Publication Centre)

EZ investors remain depressed. The headline Sentix confidence index fell to 12.0 in September, from 14.7 in August, and the expectations gauge slid by three points to -8.8.

12 April 2017 Mexico's Industrial Sector Resilient in Q1, Despite External Threats (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report in Mexico added weight to the idea that the sector improved marginally in the first quarter, despite many external threats. Industrial output rose 0.1% month-to-month in February, following a similar gain in January. The calendar-adjusted year-over-year rate rose to -0.1%, after a modest 0.3% contraction in January.

12 April 2018 A Much-Needed Reality Check on the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Today's industrial production data in the Eurozone will extend the run of soft headlines at the start of the year.

11 Sept 2019 Is the Industrial Sector in France Running out of Luck in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in France rebounded only modestly at the start of Q3, despite favourable base effects.

11 Oct 2019 Q3 GDP Set to Grow at Double the Rate Anticipated by the MPC (Publication Centre)

The latest GDP data continue to show that the economy is holding up well, despite the Brexit saga.

11 Oct 2019 Inflation Surprises to the Downside in September: Rate Cuts Loom (Publication Centre)

Recent inflation numbers across the biggest economies in LatAm have surprised to the downside, strengthening the case for further monetary easing.

11 Oct 2019 It's a Close Call, but we Still Think Germany was in Recession in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were ugly.

11 Oct 2019 No Light at the End of the Tunnel for Japan's Capex Slowdown (Publication Centre)

Business investment in Japan took a nasty hit in the third quarter.

12 May 2020 India's PMIs Show Lockdown Severity, but New Flexibility will Help (Publication Centre)

India's shocking PMIs for April leave little doubt that the second quarter will be bad enough to result in a full-year contraction in 2020 GDP, even if economic activity recovers strongly in the second half.

12 Nov 2019 If Trump Chooses to Take the Deal, The Economy will Benefit Quickly (Publication Centre)

If the Phase One trade deal with China is completed, and is accompanied by a significant tariff roll-back, we'll revise up our growth forecasts, but we'll probably lower our near-term inflation forecasts, assuming that the tariff reductions are focused on consumer goods.

13 July 2020 Inflation in Brazil is Tame, Mexico's Industrial Recession Continues (Publication Centre)

Friday's June inflation data in Brazil confirmed that the ripples from the worst of the Covid shock were still being felt at the end of the quarter.

13 July 2020 June CPI to Print Below the Consensus by 0.1pp (Publication Centre)

June's consumer price figures, released on Wednesday, probably will be overshadowed this week by data for May for GDP--see our detailed preview here--and the labour market.

13 Mar 2020 Lift from Anti-Covid Jobs in Korea won't Last, the BoK will Cut in April (Publication Centre)

The effects of Covid-19--both negative and positive--on Korea's labour market certainly were felt in February.

13 Mar 2020 Market Meltdown Makes Further MPC Easing Likely on March 26 (Publication Centre)

The measures to support the economy through the coronavirus crisis, unveiled by policymakers on Budget day, exceeded expectations.

13 July 2017 The Eurozone Economy Maintained Momentum in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data showed that industrial production in the Eurozone accelerated at the end of spring. Output, ex-construction, jumped 1.3% month-to-month in May, much better than the downwardly-revised 0.3% rise in April; the rise pushed the year-over-year rate up to a six-year high of 4.0%.

13 Jan 2020 Your Monthly Reminder that the French Economy is Doing Fine (Publication Centre)

The French manufacturing data delivered another upside surprise last week, following the solid numbers in Germany; see here. French industrial production rose slightly in November, by 0.3% month-to-month, extending the gains from an upwardly-revised 0.5% rise in October.

13 February 2019 Few Near-Term Upside Risks to Core Inflation Medium-Term Threat Rising (Publication Centre)

The odds favor--just--an end to the three-month streak of solid 0.2% increases in the core CPI with the release of today's January report.

13 Jan 2020 Downside Risk to the Consensus for December's CPI Report (Publication Centre)

December's consumer prices report looks set to show that CPI inflation was stable at 1.5%--in line with the consensus--though the risks are skewed to the downside.

13 Jan 2020 Expect Stabilisation, not Recovery, in China's Q4 GDP Data This Week (Publication Centre)

China's GDP report for the fourth quarter, due on Friday, is likely to show that economic growth has stabilised, on the surface.

13 Jan 2020 Mexico's Weak Economic Activity Will Push Core Inflation Down (Publication Centre)

Thursday's CPI report in Mexico showed that inflation is edging lower. We are confident that it will continue to fall consistently during Q1, thanks chiefly to the subpar economic recovery, low inertia and the effect of the recent MXN rebound.

13 Mar 2020 QE4 Underway, Expect the Fed to Extend it Next Week (Publication Centre)

The NY Fed's announcement yesterday restarts QE. The $60B of bill purchases previously planned for the period from March 13 through April 13 will now consist of $60B purchases "across a range of maturities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding".

13 March 2019 Durable Goods Orders are Noisy, but the Near-term Outlook is Grim (Publication Centre)

Our default position for core durable goods orders over the next few months is that they will fall, sharply.

13 Nov 2020 Japan's Sturdy Q3 GDP Rebound will be a Tough Act to Follow (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP report for the third quarter, due on Monday, is likely to show that the economy rebounded by 5.2% quarter-on-quarter, following the 7.9% collapse in Q2.

13 November 2018 When the Fiscal Push Fades, the Exposed Economy will Slow, Sharply (Publication Centre)

In the olden days, by which we mean the 15 years or so leading up to the financial crisis, a 100bp rise in long yields would be enough to slow GDP growth by about three percentage points, other things equal, after a lag of about one year.

13 Oct 2020 Mexico's Industrial Recovery Continues, but Momentum is Slowing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Mexican industrial production report was downbeat for manufacturing, but revealed that the oil and public construction sectors are starting to show some signs of life, after a challenging first half of the year.

13 Oct 2020 Stimulus Foundering on the Strong Objections of Some GOP Senators (Publication Centre)

As we reach our deadline Monday afternoon, the Columbus Day long weekend has brought no progress on the fiscal front.

13 Nov 2020 GDP Likely won't Return to September's Level Until the Spring (Publication Centre)

The economic recovery slowed to a snail's pace in September, with GDP merely rising by 1.1% on a month-to-month basis and languishing 8.6% below its January 2020 peak, even though virtually all businesses had resumed trading and Covid-19 restrictions were light touch.

13 Nov 2019 Will Politicians in Spain Face up to Reality This Time Around? (Publication Centre)

The political situation in Spain remains an odd example of how complete gridlock can be a source of relative stability.

13 May 2020 Core Inflation has Further to Fall, but Sustained Deflation is Unlikely (Publication Centre)

The record 0.4% drop in the core CPI in April would have looked even worse had it not been for favorable rounding; it was just 0.002% away from printing at -0.5%.

13 May 2020 Could a Savings Run Down Revitalise the Post-Virus Economy? (Publication Centre)

Analysis of the economy's potential to recover later this year from extreme weakness in Q2 has focussed largely on the extent to which virus-related restrictions will be lifted.

13 Nov 2019 The Labour Market isn't Weak Enough to Warrant More Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The rate of deterioration in the labour market remains gradual enough for the MPC to hold back from cutting Bank Rate over the coming months.

13 Nov 2019 Used Car Prices Pose an Upside Threat to the October Core CPI (Publication Centre)

The consensus forecast for the October core CPI, which will be reported today, is 0.2%. Take the over. Nothing is certain in these data, but the risk of a 0.3% print is much higher than the chance of 0.1%.

13 February 2017 Can French Investment Maintain Momentum in 2017? (Publication Centre)

French manufacturing cooled at the end of 2016. Industrial production slipped 0.9% month-to-month in December, partially reversing an upwardly revised 2.4% jump in November. The main hits came from declines in oil refining and manufacturing of cars and other transport equipment.

13 Feb 2020 Japan's M2 Still Points to a Growth Slowdown, Regardless of the Virus (Publication Centre)

Japan's money and credit data have shown signs of life in recent months, but that's all set to change quickly, due to the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.

12 October. 2016 How Hard Did FOMC Dissenters Push to Hike?  (Publication Centre)

Today's FOMC minutes will add flesh to the bones of the three dissents on September 21. The FOMC statement merely said that each of the three--Loretta Mester, Esther George and Eric Rosengren--preferred to raise rates by a quarter-point.

12 Sept 2019 Is Britain Heading for A Consumer Spending Slowdown in 2020 (Publication Centre)

Households have been a rock of stability over the last two years, increasing their real spending at a steady rate of 1.8% year-over-year, while the rest of the economy collectively has ground to a halt.

12 Sept 2019 Mr. Draghi and the ECB Won't Fail Us Today... We Hope (Publication Centre)

Today's ECB meeting is supposed to be a slam-dunk.

13 April 2018 Stock Price Hit May Hurt Consumers' Sentiment (Publication Centre)

Whatever happened to consumers' sentiment in March, the level of University of Michigan's index will be very high, relative to its long-term average.

12 Oct 2020 The Recovery was Stalling Even Before the Second Wave (Publication Centre)

August's GDP report represented a fatal blow to the V-shaped recovery thesis.

12 Oct 2020 The French Aerospace Sector has been Knocked Out by Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

Friday's sole economic report added to the evidence that the rebound in EZ manufacturing petered out midway through Q3, even if we still think the German numbers--see here--will rebound soon.

12 Nov 2019 The Downside Surprise from Q3 GDP has a Silver Lining (Publication Centre)

The headline figures from yesterday's GDP report gave a bad impression. September's 0.1% month-to- month decline in GDP matched the consensus and primarily reflected mean-reversion in car production and car sales, which both picked up in August.

12 Nov 2020 The 2021 Inflation Outlook is Very Uncertain (Publication Centre)

We remain resolutely open-minded about the medium-term inflation outlook, on the straightforward grounds that the post-Covid economy will bear little resemblance to any previous U.S. economic experience.

12 November 2018 September's Sombre GDP Report Sets the Tone for the Rest of the Year (Publication Centre)

September's GDP report laid bare the economy's sluggishness.

12 Oct 2020 Covid-induced Spike in Food Prices Pushes Up Inflation in Brazil and Chile (Publication Centre)

Inflation data for Brazil and Chile released last week surprised to the upside, but the rebound in September mainly was driven by the effect of the reopening of the economy and food-related pressures as external demand increases.

13 Aug 2019 The Pillars of Japanese Domestic Demand are Built on Shaky Ground (Publication Centre)

GDP growth in Japan surprised to the upside in the second quarter, although the preliminary headline arguably flattered the economy's actual performance.

13 Aug 2020 Solid EZ Manufacturing Data, but Still Far Off a Full Recovery (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ industrial production report conformed to expectations.

13 Dec 2019 Ms. Lagarde Passes her First Test, but it won't get any Easier (Publication Centre)

The ECB and Ms. Lagarde played it safe yesterday.

13 Feb 2020 A Double-Dip Recession on the Menu for Italy's in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The fact that Italy's economy is in poor shape will not surprise anyone following the euro area, but the advance Q4 GDP headline was astonishingly poor all the same.

13 Feb 2020 Core CPI Likely Back on Trend, Risks in Rent and Healthcare Persist (Publication Centre)

The underlying trend in the core CPI is rising by just under 0.2% per month, so that has to be the starting point for our January forecast.

13 Feb 2020 Could Inventory Rundowns Scupper the Q1 GDP Pick-up? (Publication Centre)

Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth last year was buffeted by the accumulation, and subsequent depletion, of inventories, around the two Brexit deadlines in March and October.

13 Dec 2019 Japan's Machine Orders Hack a Hole in the Notion of Resilient Capex (Publication Centre)

We've been consistent in saying that Japanese capex would roll over this year, after strength in the first three quarters was seen by the authorities and many commentators as a sign of resilience.

13 Dec 2019 Did a Strong Thanksgiving Weekend Lift November Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

Today's November retail sales numbers are something of a wild card, given the absence of reliable indicators of the strength of sales over the Thanksgiving weekend, and the difficulty of seasonally adjusting the data for a holiday which falls on a different date this year.

13 Aug 2020 The Fastest Part of the Recovery in GDP Already Lies in the Past (Publication Centre)

The U.K. economy underperformed its peers to an extraordinary degree in Q2.

13 August 2019 If China is Playing the Long Game, the Trade War will Last Until 2021 (Publication Centre)

While we were out, most of the action was on the political front, while the economic data mostly were unexciting.

13 Dec 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Hit Bottom in November, a Pick-Up Lies Ahead (Publication Centre)

Next week is so crammed full of data releases that we need to preview November's consumer price data early, in the eye of the storm of the general election.

11 Mar 2020 Covid-19 has a Strong Grip on Italy, it will be Costly to Beat it (Publication Centre)

It's still unclear how exactly Covid-19 will impact the euro area as a whole, but little doubt now remains that Italy's economy is in for a rough ride.

11 June 2020 The Fed isn't Thinking About Thinking About Hiking, Why Would They (Publication Centre)

The Fed announced no significant policy changes yesterday, but the FOMC reinforced its commitment to maintain "smooth market functioning", by promising to keep its Treasury and mortgage purchases "at least at the current pace".

1 Oct 2020 Households Likely will Sit On Most of their Excess Savings, for Now (Publication Centre)

The small upward revision to the level of GDP in Q2 has done little to lift the U .K. economy's recent performance into line with its international peers.

1 Oct 2020 Is Q3 as Good as it Gets for China's Manufacturing PMIs (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturers ended the third quarter on a fairly strong note.

1 October 2018 Data Confirm Softer Q3 in Disaster- Hit Japan, but it's not all Bad News (Publication Centre)

A firmer picture is emerging of how Japan's economy fared in Q3, in light of the latest slew of data for August.

1 October 2018 The 14-year High in the ISM Likely Can't Hold, Expect a Correction (Publication Centre)

The case for believing that August's unexpected 14-year high in the ISM manufacturing index was a fluke is pretty straightforward, and it has both short and medium-term elements.

1 Oct 2019 The Trouble with China's Private Sector Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs have diverged in the last couple of months.

1 November 2018 More Trick and Less Treat as the BoJ Leaves Market Hanging (Publication Centre)

The BoJ kept policy unchanged, as expected, at its meeting yesterday.

1 Nov 2019 New Forecasts to Show Government on Course to Break its Fiscal Rule (Publication Centre)

The Office for Budget Responsibility has decided to press ahead with the publication of new fiscal forecasts on November 7, despite the government's decision to postpone the Budget until after the next election.

1 Nov 2019 Payrolls Set for GM Hit, but the Trend is Slowing too, with Worse to Come (Publication Centre)

We expect to see a 70K increase in October payrolls today.

1 Nov 2019 The Thought of a Rate Cut Spooks the BoJ into a Parallel Dimension (Publication Centre)

The BoJ yesterday kept the policy balance rate at -0.1%, and the 10-year yield target at "around zero", in line with the consensus.

1 Nov 2019 Where's the Fire, The EZ Economy is Weak, but also Stabilising (Publication Centre)

The more headline hard data we see in the Eurozone, the more we are getting the impression that 2019 is the year of stabilisation, rather than a precursor to recession.

1 Sep 2020 Chinese Manufacturing is Peaking, While Services are Still Catching-up (Publication Centre)

The momentum in Chinese manufacturing waned in August, with the official manufacturing PMI slipping marginally to 51.0, from 51.1 in July,

1 Sep 2020 Decent Data Today won't Change the Deteriorating Q4 Outlook (Publication Centre)

Today brings a raft of data which mostly will look quite positive but will do nothing to assuage our fears over a sharp slowdown in growth in the fourth quarter.

10 Dec 2019 Japan's Revised Q3 GDP Growth Reveals a bit More of the Tax Impact (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP growth was revised up, to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.1% in the preliminary reading.

10 Feb 2020 December GDP Set to Confirm that the Economy Stagnated in Q4 (Publication Centre)

We can't quibble with the consensus that GDP likely rose by 0.2% month-to-month in December, reversing only two-thirds of November's drop.

10 Feb 2020 Job Gains Can't Be Sustained at January's Weather-Assisted Pace (Publication Centre)

The reported 225K jump in payrolls in January was even bigger than we expected, but it is not sustainable. The extraordinarily warm weather last month most obviously boosted job gains in construction, where the 44K increase was the biggest in a year

10 Jan 2020 Carney's Rate Cut Meditation Indicates Normalisation is Distant (Publication Centre)

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate in the first half of this year leapt to 50% yesterday, from 35%, following Mark Carney's speech.

10 Dec 2019 A Conservative Majority Remains Likely, But it is Not Se t in Stone (Publication Centre)

The Conservatives successfully have defended their average poll lead over Labour of 10 percentage points over the last week.

10 Aug 2020 June Data to Mark the Start of the Surge in Unemployment (Publication Centre)

This week's labour market data likely will show that the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme did not prevent a rising tide of redundancies in response to Covid-19.

1 Sep 2020 Don't Expect LatAm's Output to Reach Pre-Covid Levels this Year (Publication Centre)

The worst of the pandemic seems to be over in many countries in LatAm, allowing a gradual reopening of their economies.

10 April 2019 Core Inflation is Steady Expect Mean Reversion in the March Core (Publication Centre)

Core CPI inflation has been 2.1-to-2.2% year-over- year for the past seven months, a remarkably stable run which likely will persist for a few more months.

10 April 2019 Retail Sales Likely Dipped in March, but Remain Firmly on a Rising Path (Publication Centre)

Our view that households will continue to spend more in the first half of this year, preventing the economy from slipping into a capex-led recession, was not seriously challenged yesterday by the BRC's Retail Sales Monitor.

10 Aug 2020 German and French Manufacturing Finished Q2 on a Strong Note (Publication Centre)

Friday's manufacturing and trade data added to the evidence of a solid rebound in the EZ economy at the end of Q2, as lockdowns were lifted.

1 May 2020 Job Losses are Slowing, but Remain Hugely Elevated (Publication Centre)

The drop in jobless claims to 3,839K in the week ended April 25, from 4,442K in the previous week, leaves the data still terrible, but markedly less terrible than at the 6,867K peak in late March.

1 May 2019 What Will Chair Powell say About Strong Q1 Growth and Low Inflation (Publication Centre)

The FOMC meeting today will be a non-event from a policy perspective but we are very curious to see what both the written statement and the Chair will have to say about the unexpected strength of the economy in the first quarter.

1 February 2018 New Wage Data Do Not Meaningfully Re-Write History (Publication Centre)

Experimental figures, released earlier this week, suggest that wages have increased at a faster rate than indicated by the average weekly earnings--AWE--data.

1 July 2019 Trade Talks Back on, this Time, Expect a Deal, Both Sides Need One (Publication Centre)

The outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 summit was as good as we expected.

1 July 2020 Brazil's Job Market is Under Strain, despite a Resilient-looking Headline (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday showed that the labour market in Brazil looks relatively resilient to the collapse in economic activity.

1 July 2020 It's Official... Risks of Covid Clusters Don't Jeopardise China's Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's economy looks to have shrugged off the supposed "second wave" of Covid-19, sparked by a cluster in Beijing's largest wholesale market for fruit and veg, looking at June's PMIs.

1 February 2018 Firmer Fed Language on Growth, Inflation, Tees-up the March hike (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's FOMC statement was a bit more upbeat on growth than we expected, with Janet Yellen's final missive describing everything -- economic growth, employment, household spending, and business investment -- as "solid".

1 Aug 2019 Trade Talks Restart China's Woes Will Help to Keep Them Going (Publication Centre)

Trade talks between the U.S. and China officially resumed this week, with the first face-to-face meeting of the main negotiators taking place yesterday in Shanghai.

1 Apr 2020 ADP Likely to Capture the Leading Edge of the Virus Hit to Jobs (Publication Centre)

Today's March ADP employment report likely will catch the leading edge of the wave of job losses triggered by the coronavirus.

1 Apr 2020 Brazil and Chile Pre-Covid Data were Solid, but the Good News won't Last (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in LatAm are the last calm before the coronavirus storm.

1 Apr 2020 Hold Your Horses... A V-Shaped Recovery in China isn't Secured, Yet (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs for March surprised well to the upside, cheering markets across Asia.

1 Apr 2020 Your Guide to the German Labour Market Data and Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's March labour market data in Germany were surprisingly strong

1 July 2020 Q1 GDP Weaker than First Thought, Amid Rapid Consumer Retrenchment (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national accounts showed that the downturn in the economy on the eve of the Covid-19 outbreak was sharper than first estimated.

1 July. 2016 Manufacturing Activity Has Levelled-Off - Better News Ahead (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector is much more exposed to external forces--the dollar, and global growth--than the rest of the economy. But much of the slowdown in the sector over the past year-and-a-half, we think, can be traced back to the impact of plunging oil prices on capital spending in the sector.

1 March 2018 The PM's Inevitable Capitulation is Still a Way Off ,Clouding Sterling's Outlook (Publication Centre)

Sterling fell to $1.38, from $1.39, in the hour following the EU's publication of a draft Article 50 withdrawal treaty, which set out the practical consequences of the principles the U.K. agreed to in December.

1 March 2019 Q4 Growth Rescued by Business Spending on IP, but Q1 Set to Soften (Publication Centre)

A quick rebound in growth, after the slowdown to a reported 2.6% in the fourth quarter, is unlikely.

1 May 2017 Ignore the Weak Q1 GDP Numbers -- they Cannot be Trusted (Publication Centre)

If you apply a seasonal adjustment to a seasonally adjusted series, it shouldn't change. When you apply a seasonal adjustment to the U.S. GDP numbers, they do change. First quarter growth, reported Friday at just 0.7%, goes up to 1.7%, on our estimate.

1 May 2019 The Eurozone Economy Defied the Pessimists in the First Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic headlines in the Eurozone were pleasant reading.

1 March 2018 Eurozone inflation has bottomed for the year (Publication Centre)

House purchase mortgage approvals by the main street banks jumped to 40.1K in January, from 36.1K in December, fully reversing the 4K fall of the previous two months, according to trade body U.K. Finance.

1 March 2018 Don't Extrapolate Januarys Core PCE Deflator (Publication Centre)

All eyes today will be on the core PCE deflator for January, following the unexpectedly large 0.3% increase in the core CPI.

1 June 2018 Payrolls Likely Constrained by Trade- War Talk, AHE Hit by the Calendar? (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a 180K increase in today's May headline payroll number, a bit below the underlying trend--200K or so--for the second straight month.

1 June 2020 The Saving Rate has Peaked, but Consumers have a Lot of Firepower (Publication Centre)

The entire 10.5% increase in personal income in April, reported on Friday, was due to the direct stimulus payments made to households under the CARES Act.

1 March 2018 China PMIs Trend Down but the February Dip is an Overshoot (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs surprised the consensus forecasts to the downside for February. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.3 in February from 51.3 in January, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 54.4 from 55.3 in January.

10 Jan 2020 CPI and PPI in China are at Turning Points, but Policy won't Change (Publication Centre)

The year-long surge in CPI inflation in China will soon end.

10 Jan 2020 The Outlook for German Q4 GDP is Poor, but also Murkier than Usual (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report in Germany was much better than implied by the poor new orders data--see here--released earlier this week.

11 Dec 2019 The PBoC Could Cut Rates Again this Year, Easing so far is Insufficient (Publication Centre)

China's November money and credit data were a little less grim, with only M2 growth slipping, due to unfavourable base effects.

11 December 2018 Macro Data set to Split: Consumer Strength, Industrial Weakness (Publication Centre)

The next few months, perhaps the whole of the first quarter, are likely to see a clear split in the U.S. economic data, with numbers from the consumer side of the economy looking much better than the industrial numbers.

11 Feb 2020 Weather Boost to January Payrolls won't Fully Reverse in February (Publication Centre)

A reader pointed out Friday that the standard measurement of the impact of the weather on January payrolls--the number of people unable to work due to the weather, less the long-term average--likely overstated the boost from the extremely mild temperatures.

11 Feb 2020 What's Happened to the Wage- Price Link? (Publication Centre)

At first glance, the continued weakness of domestically-generated inflation, despite punchy increases in labour costs, is puzzling.

11 Dec 2019 Recession Risks Remain Low, Despite Stagnant GDP in October (Publication Centre)

Markets rightly placed little weight on October's below-consensus GDP report yesterday, and still think that the chances of the MPC cutting Bank Rate within the next six months are below 50%.

11 Dec 2019 Most of the Risk to November's Core CPI is to the Upside (Publication Centre)

We see clear upside risk to the inflation data due before the FOMC announcement, from three main sources.

11 Aug 2020 Britain's Recovery Likely Quickened in June, but Still Lagged its Peers (Publication Centre)

We expect June's GDP data, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered momentum in June, having got off to a faltering start in May.

11 Aug 2020 How Worried Should we be Over Spain's Economic Misery (Publication Centre)

Markets tend to look to Italy as the canary in the coalmine for signs of stress in the EZ economy and financial markets, but we recommend keeping a close eye on Spain too.

11 Dec 2019 French Manufacturing is Headed for a Soft Q4, Despite a Solid Start (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in France remained on the front foot at the start of Q4.

11 Dec 2019 Mexico's Leading Indicators Still Signal Tough Near-term Prospects (Publication Centre)

Recent activity data in Mexico have been soft and leading indicators still point to challenging near-term prospects, due mainly to relatively high domestic political risk, stifling interest rates and difficult external conditions.

11 February 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Fell Slightly Below The 2% Target in January (Publication Centre)

Analysts' forecasts for January's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, are unusually dispersed.

11 February 2019 Is the Accelerating Fall in Bank Reserves a Real Problem for the Fed? (Publication Centre)

The rundown of the Fed's balance sheet has proceeded in line with the plans laid out b ack in June 2017.

11 July 2019 Manufacturing in France did Much Better than we had Feared in Q2 (Publication Centre)

France is solidifying its position as one of the Eurozone's best-performing economies.

11 June 2018 Production and Labour Market Data will Hit Rate Hike Odds (Publication Centre)

The resolution of tensions in Italy and aboveconsensus U.K. PMIs for May last week persuaded investors that the MPC likely will press on and raise interest rates soon.

11 June 2019 April Data Point to Flat GDP in Q2, But Q3 Will be Much Better (Publication Centre)

April's GDP data give a grim firs t impression, though the details provide reassurance that the economy isn't on the cusp of a recession.

11 June 2020 How to Read Next Week's Migraine- Inducing Labour Market Report (Publication Centre)

Many investors probably will be scratching their heads in the wake of next week's labour market report, which will reveal the Covid-19 hit to employment and wages in April, as well as showing how much further the claimant count soared in May.

11 July 2019 GDP Growth Still isn't Slow Enough to Warrant a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The economy looks to be in better shape following May's GDP report than widely feared.

11 July 2018 What Ailed French Manufacturers in the First Half of 2018 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's manufacturing data in France were in stark contrast to last week's upbeat German numbers.

11 January 2017 Slowdown in C&I Loan Growth Worrisome? (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the slowdown in bank loan growth to commercial and industrial companies over the past two years looks alarming. In the year to November, the stock of loans outstanding rose by 8.0%, the smallest gain since January 2014. A further decline in the year-over-year rate, taking it below the rate of growth of nominal GDP--we expect 4.7% in the first quarter--for the first time in six years, is now a fair bet. The three- and six-month annualized growth rates of C&I lending in November were just 6.2% and 4.7% respectively, and still falling.

11 January 2018 November Data Point to a Slight Slowdown in GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's deluge of output and trade data broadly supported our call that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth likely slowed to 0.3% in Q4, from 0.4% in Q3.

11 January 2019 Downside Risk to December's CPI Watch Used Auto Prices Airline Fares (Publication Centre)

The CPI report due today will be released on schedule, because the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the data, remains open during the partial government shutdown.

11 April 2018 February Data Likely will Show that the Industrial Revival is Losing Pace (Publication Centre)

Industrial production hit its stride last year, notching up eight consecutive month-to-month gains--the longest run of unbroken growth since May 1994--before a setback in December, which was triggered by the temporary closure of the Forties oil pipeline.

10 September 2018 The Payroll Blip is Over, Expect Further Labor Market Tightening (Publication Centre)

Normal service appears to have resumed in August, with payrolls rising by 201K, very close to the 196K average over the previous year.

10 July 2020 GDP Likely Retraced Just One- Fifth of its Covid-19 Slump in May (Publication Centre)

We expect May's GDP report, released on Tuesday, to provide an early blow to hopes that the economy will embark on a V-shaped recovery this year.

10 June 2020 Banxico will Cut Rates this Month, Despite the Inflation Rebound in May (Publication Centre)

This week's data have offered further clear hard evidence of the Covid-19 shock to the Mexican economy, supporting our base case of further interest rate cuts in the coming monetary policy meetings.

10 Mar 2020 Oil Sector Capex is Set to Collapse, Outweighing Consumers' Gain (Publication Centre)

The collapse in oil prices was the immediate trigger for the 7.6% plunge in the S&P 500 yesterday, but the underlying reason is the Covid-19 epidemic.

10 Mar 2020 Virus-related Collapse in Services Spending to Trigger Q2 GDP Drop (Publication Centre)

We're now starting to see clear signs in unofficial data that households are slashing their expenditure on discretionary services, in order to minimise their chances of catching the coronavirus.

10 July 2019 Will the MPC Draw a Line in the Sand Under Sterling? (Publication Centre)

The pound can't get a break. Sterling fell to just $1.24 yesterday, its lowest level against the dollar since March 2017, bar the momentary "flash crash" in January.

10 July 2019 Time for a Serious Debate about More QE in the Eurozone? (Publication Centre)

Our base case remains a 10bp cut in the deposit rate, to -0.5%, in September.

10 January 2017 Production Likely Surged in November, but Trend Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

The consensus expectation that industrial production rose by 1.0% month-to-month in November is far too low; we expect Wednesday's data to show a jump of 2.0% or so. The rebound, however, should not be interpreted as another sign that the economy has been revitalised by the Brexit vote. Instead, we expect the rise chiefly to reflect volatility in oil production and heating energy supply.

19 Feb 2020 The Labour Market is Tight Enough to Sustain Brisk Wage Rises (Publication Centre)

The headline employment numbers masked an otherwise sub-par December labour market report.

10 January 2018 Price-Level Targeting isn't Coming Soon, it's Likely not Coming at all (Publication Centre)

Judging from our inbox, the idea that the Fed might switch to some form of price level targeting, replacing its current 2% inflation target, is the big new idea for 2018.

10 July 2019 Powell to Stick to the Party Line. Will he Mention the Trimmed Mean PCE? (Publication Centre)

We'd be surprised to see any serious shift in the tone of Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony today compared to the FOMC statement and press conference just three weeks ago.

10 May 2017 April's Surge in Retail Sales Isn't a Turning Point (Publication Centre)

April's Retail Sales Monitor from the British Chambers of Commerce, released yesterday, provided a powerful signal that households' spending rebounded in April, following a terrible Q1.

10 May 2017 The Budget Deficit is Rising, even Before any Unfunded Tax Cuts (Publication Centre)

The CBO reckons that the April budget surplus jumped to about $179B, some $72B more than in the same month last year. This looks great, but alas all the apparent improvement reflects calendar distortions on the spending side of the accounts.

10 Sept 2020 Back to Normal Programming, as China's PPI and CPI Converge (Publication Centre)

The pressure on Chinese industrial profits continued to ease in August, looking at the further moderation in PPI deflation.

10 Sept 2020 Labour Market Data to Show Jobs Downturn Gathering Pace in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The data calendar is so congested next week that it makes sense to preview Tuesday's labour market report early.

10 Sept 2020 Today's ECB Meeting is too Close to Call, More PEPP on the Way (Publication Centre)

The balance of risks is finely poised ahead of today's ECB meeting.

10 September 2018 No Need for the MPC to Rock the Boat This Week (Publication Centre)

Lacklustre economic data and persistent no deal Brexit risk mean that the MPC won't rock the boat at this week's meeting.

10 Sept 2019 NFIB Capex Plans and Selling Prices Point to Trouble Ahead (Publication Centre)

The likely dip in the headline NFIB index of small business sentiment and activity today will tell us that business owners are unhappy and nervous about the potential impact of the latest China tariffs on their sales and profits.

10 October 2018 Hurricane Michael Means Another "Soft" Payroll Number (Publication Centre)

Our hopes of a hefty rebound in payrolls in October, following the hurricane-hit September number, have been dashed by the imminent landfall of Hurricane Michael in Florida panhandle.

10 May. 2016 Do Falling Earnings Signal a Rollover in Payroll Gains? (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the payroll report on Friday, several readers sent us a version of the chart reproduced below, showing the rates of growth of S&P earnings and private sector payrolls. The message from the chart appears to be that the current trend in payroll growth, a bit over 200K per month cannot be sustained.

10 Nov 2020 The Post-Covid Era is no Longer Just a Dream, but it's Not Here Yet (Publication Centre)

Pfizer's announcement yesterday provided the answer to the--rhetorical--question we've been asking for months: Do you want to be short equities the day we learn that a Covid-19 vaccine works?

10 November 2017 Data to Confirm Production Picked Up but Net Trade Hit Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

September's industrial production figures likely will not surprise markets today. We look for a 0.3% month-to-month rise in production, matching the consensus and the ONS assumption in the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP.

13 October 2017 A Lending Slowdown Will Keep GDP Weak Even as Inflation Fades (Publication Centre)

The worst phase of the squeeze on real wages is nearly over; CPI inflation looks set to peak at slightly above 3% in October, before falling back steadily to about 2% by the end of 2018.

10 January 2018 Japan's Regular Wage Uptrend Remains Intact. More to Come (Publication Centre)

Japan's regular wage growth continued to edge up in November, maintaining the rising trend. The headline is volatile, with growth in labour cash earnings rising to 0.9% year-over-year in November, up from a downwardly revised 0.2% in October.

17 Jan 2020 Brazil's Black Friday Lifted Sales in November, but Less than Expected (Publication Centre)

Brazil's consumer resilience in Q3 continued to November, but retail sales undershot market expectations, suggesting that the sector is not yet accelerating and that downside risks remain.

17 Jan 2020 December's Retail Sales Report Will Dampen Rate Cut Speculation (Publication Centre)

The consensus forecast for a 0.6% month-to month rise in retail sales volumes in December--data released today--is far too timid.

17 Jan 2020 Manufacturing is Stagnating, but a Modest H1 Upturn is a Fair Bet (Publication Centre)

The trend in manufacturing output probably is about flat, with no real prospect of any serious improvement in the near term.

17 July 2017 September Rate Hike Odds Have Fallen, but it's not Over Yet (Publication Centre)

After four straight sub-consensus core CPI readings, we think the odds now favor reversion to the prior trend, 0.2%, over the next few months.

17 Feb 2020 January CPI Inflation Set to Undershoot the MPC's Forecast (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation surprises look set to trigger larger- than-usual market reactions over the coming months, given that the MPC emphasised last month that it wants to see domestically-generated inflation rebound swiftly, after falling suddenly late last year, in order to justify keeping Bank Rate on hold.

17 December 2018 Corporate Debt Service Still Falling, Three Years After the First Fed Hike (Publication Centre)

This week brings the third anniversary of the first rate hike in this cycle, on December 16, 2015.

17 Dec 2019 Colombia Ends the Year Solidly, but Downside Risks for 2020 Emerge (Publication Centre)

Incoming activity data from Colombia over the past quarter have been surprisingly strong, despite many domestic and external threats.

17 Dec 2019 The EZ PMIs Point to Another Subpar Quarter for the EZ in Q4 (Publication Centre)

We're sticking to our call that the Eurozone PMIs have bottomed, though we concede that the picture so far is more one of stabilisation than an outright rebound.

17 Dec 2019 The MPC won't Dwell on December's Weak Flash PMIs (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, December's flash Markit/CIPS PMIs warrant the MPC cutting Bank Rate at its meeting on Thursday.

17 December 2018 China's Activity Data for November were Poor... the Worst is yet to Come (Publication Centre)

We had expected the batch of Chinese data released at the end of last week to disappoint.

17 July 2018 Powell Set to Re-affirm the "Gradual" Approach to Rates, for Now (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony today will likely re-affirm that policymakers still think "gradual" rate hikes are appropriate and that the risks to the economy remain "roughly balanced".

17 July 2019 Colombia's Outlook is Improving Domestic Demand is Solid (Publication Centre)

May's activity data underline the gradual recovery in Colombia's economic growth, following signs of weakness at the start of the year.

17 Mar 2020 Q2 GDP Set to Plunge by About 10%, Stocks have Further to Fall (Publication Centre)

We were not hugely surprised to see stocks tank again yesterday.

17 May 2017 Is Housing Activity set to Reach New Cycle Highs this Summer? (Publication Centre)

Last week, the MBA's measure of the volume of applications for new mortgages to finance house purchase rose 1.7%.

17 May 2018 Labor Market Indicators are Contradictory, Which to Trust? (Publication Centre)

Some of the recent labor market data appear contradictory. For example, the official JOLTS measure of the number of job openings has spiked to an all-time high, and the number of openings is now greater than the number of unemployed people, for the first time since the data series begins, in 2001.

17 November 2017 Manufacturing Output Rebounds, but no Boom Coming (Publication Centre)

The spectacular 1.3% rebound in manufacturing output last month -- the biggest jump in seven years, apart from an Easter-distorted April gain -- does not change our core view that activity in the sector is no longer accelerating.

17 Mar 2020 Bolder Policy Action Required to Prevent a Prolonged Recession (Publication Centre)

Signs that the economy has been crippled by people's response to the Covid-19 outbreak continued to emerge yesterday.

17 Mar 2020 A Week on the Wild Side in EZ Equities, and It isn't Over Yet (Publication Centre)

The split between the reality reflected in the economic data and market pricing has never been wider in the euro area

17 July 2019 Punchy Wage Gains are Tying the MPC's Hands (Publication Centre)

Labour costs are rising so quickly that the MPC cannot justify an "insurance" cut in Bank Rate to counteract the impending damage from Brexit uncertainty in the run-up to the October deadline.

17 July 2020 Andes' Economic Prospects Remain Grim, but they will Improve Soon (Publication Centre)

May's activity data in the Andes underline the severe hit from the pandemic on economic activity.

17 June 2019 Peak Trade War Might Already be Past, but Strong Nerves Needed (Publication Centre)

When economic historians look back at the bizarre trade war of 2018-to-19, we think they will see Tuesday June 4 as the turning point, after which the threats of fire and brimstone were taken much less seriously, and markets began to ponder life after tariffs.

17 June 2020 April's Decline in Employment is Just the Start (Publication Centre)

At first glance, the latest labour market data appear to be contradictory.

17 Dec 2019 Behind the Rebound in November IP, the Underlying Trend is Flat (Publication Centre)

The November industrial production numbers will be dominated by the rebound in auto production following the end of the GM strike.

17 Aug 2020 Now is Not the Time for the RBI to Worry About Inflation (Publication Centre)

While we were away, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted unanimously to keep its benchmark repo rate unchanged, at 4.00%, defying expectations for a 25-basis point cut.

16 May 2019 The Industrial Sector is Bottoming April's IP Data are Misleading (Publication Centre)

We are not worried about the reported drop in April manufacturing output, which probably will reverse in May.

16 Nov 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Rose in October, But it's too Soon to Call an Uptrend (Publication Centre)

We see slight upside risk to the consensus and MPC forecasts that CPI inflation remained at 0.5% in October. We think it nudged up to 0.6%, though admittedly a 0.5% print looks much more likely than 0.7%.

16 Nov 2020 Expect Rolling Restrictions and Lockdowns, Covid is Out of Control (Publication Centre)

The story of the next few weeks will be a gradual and uneven--but unambiguous--tightening of anti-Covid restrictions across the country.

16 Nov 2020 The Door Just Shut for a December RBI Cut, Easing Will Resume in Q1 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in India rose unexpectedly in October to 7.6%, from 7.3% in September, putting the final nail in the coffin for a potential RBI rate cut next month.

16 May 2017 Manufacturing is Recovering, Despite the Hard and Soft Data Gap (Publication Centre)

The over-hyped mystery of the gap between the hard and soft data in the industrial economy has largely resolved itself in recent months.

16 March 2018 Weak Data Suggest the MPC Won't Clearly Signal a May Hike Next Week (Publication Centre)

In order to support current market pricing, the MPC will have to be more specific about the timing of the next rate hike in the minutes of next Thursday's meeting.

16 June 2020 Sales, Production Up in May, but a Very Long Way to Go (Publication Centre)

The two marquee economic reports today, covering May retail sales and industrial production, will capture the initial rebound after the economy hit bottom sometime in mid-April.

16 Mar 2020 The House Bill is Nothing Like Enough, Much More is Coming (Publication Centre)

The House passage of a stimulus bill last Friday, seeking to ameliorate some of the damage done by the coronavirus outbreak, will not be nearly enough.

16 March 2017 The Fed Won't be Able to Dodge the Fiscal Policy Question in June (Publication Centre)

It might seem odd to describe a meeting at which the Fed raised rates for only the third time since 2006 as a holding operation, but that just about sums up yesterday's actions. The 25bp rate hike was fully anticipated; the forecasts for growth, inflation and interest rates were barely changed from December; and the Fed still expects a total of three hikes this year.

16 March 2018 Housing Starts and Manufacturing Likely Shone in February (Publication Centre)

Today brings yet another broad array of data, with new information on housing construction, industrial production, consumer sentiment, and job openings.

16 Oct 2019 Did Pre-Tariff Spending Boost September Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

Tariffs are a tax on imported goods, and higher taxes depress growth, other things equal.

16 Oct 2019 Momentum in Wage Growth Continues to Tie the MPC's Hands (Publication Centre)

The Brexit-related slump in corporate confidence finally has taken its toll on hiring.

16 Sept 2019 The MPC Is Under No Pressure to Change its Tune (Publication Centre)

We look for yet another unanimous vote by the MPC to keep Bank Rate at 0.75% on Thursday, with no new guidance on the near-term outlook.

16 Sept 2020 The Upturn in Redundancies is Only Just Getting Going (Publication Centre)

The latest official data continue to understate the collapse in labour demand since Covid-19.

17 Apr 2020 Low Inflation in LatAm Allows Central Banks to Ease Further in Q2 (Publication Centre)

LatAm currencies fell sharply in Q1 but the hit hasn't yet pushed inflation higher.

17 Aug 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Edged Up in July, Before Turning Negative in August (Publication Centre)

We expect July's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation ticked up to 0.7% in July, from 0.6% in June.

16 Sept 2019 The Economy is Set for a Grinding Slowdown, No Relief Until 2021 (Publication Centre)

We have been quite bullish on U.S. economic growth this year.

16 October 2018 No Further Step Up in Wage Growth Likely in August (Publication Centre)

Consensus expectations for August's labour market data, released today, look well grounded.

16 Oct 2020 France's September CPI Adds to the Pressure on EZ Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed French CPI data for September added to evidence of softening core inflation in the Eurozone.

16 Oct 2020 Near-Real-Time Data Show the Recovery has Hit a Wall (Publication Centre)

Many indicators continue to suggest that the economic recovery has stalled.

16 October 2018 China's GDP Growth Likely Weaker than Friday's Numbers will Show (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth is absurdly stable, but the risks in Q3 are tilted to the downside.

17 Oct 2019 Korea's Q3 GDP Report to Highlight the Futility of the BoK's Second Cut (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea voted yesterday to lower its policy base rate to 1.25%, from 1.50%.

17 Oct 2019 September IP Hit by the GM Strike, but the Trend is Soft too (Publication Centre)

The GM strike will make itself felt in the September industrial production data, due today.

18 May 2020 How to Decipher This Week's Labour Market Report (Publication Centre)

This week's labour market report--primarily reflecting conditions in March, though some data refer to April--will lift the veil on the initial economic damage from Covid-19, though the full horror will emerge only later.

18 Nov 2020 Retail Sales Likely Edged Down in October, But a New Peak Lies Ahead (Publication Centre)

The consensus for a mere 0.3% month-to-month fall in the official measure of retail sales volumes--the data are released on Friday--looks too sanguine. We look for a fall of about 0.7%, followed by a lockdown induced plunge in sales of about 10% in November.

18 Nov 2020 The Restaurant Recovery Stalled in October, Reversal in November (Publication Centre)

After five straight months of gains, during which the food service component of retail sales recovered 73% of the ground lost in March and April, during the initial Covid lockdown, spending stalled in October.

18 Oct 2019 Argentina's Presidential Vote will Restore the Dire Kirchner Dynasty (Publication Centre)

Argentinians are heading to the polls on Sunday October 27 and will likely turn their backs on the current president, Mauricio Macri.

18 May 2018 Challenging Times for the BCB, Weak Growth and EM Risks Rising (Publication Centre)

Brazil's monetary authority adopted a neutral tone and kept its main rate on hold at 6.5% at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, surprising investors.

18 March 2019 Mexico's Manufacturing is Offsetting the Oil Drag, Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Hard data on Mexico's industrial sector for the last couple of months have highlighted major divergences across sectors.

18 June 2019 Through the Looking Glass With EZ Inflation Expectations (Publication Centre)

As we go to press, Mr. Draghi is set to give the opening remarks for the 2019 ECB central banking forum in Sintra, and later today, at 09:00 CET, the president delivers his introductory speech.

18 June 2020 Deflation will be Just a Whisker Away in the Summer (Publication Centre)

The drop in CPI inflation to 0.5% in May, from 0.8% in April, brought it another big step closer to the near-zero rate we foresee in the second half of this year.

18 June 2020 Scope for Disappointment in Jobless Claims, if State Data are Reliable (Publication Centre)

We're braced for disappointing jobless claims numbers today.

18 Mar 2020 Fed CP Purchases and the $850B Bill are Progress, but Not Enough (Publication Centre)

The establishment of the Fed's commercial paper funding facility, announced yesterday, replicates the first wave of asset purchases undertaken after the crash of 2008.

18 Oct 2019 Housing Investment Looks Set for a Double-Digit Q4 Jump (Publication Centre)

The declines in headline housing starts and building permits in September don't matter; both were driven by corrections in the volatile multi-family sector.

18 October 2017 Housing Activity is Poised for a Hefty Q4 Rebound as Demand Rebounds (Publication Centre)

Today brings the September housing construction report, which likely will show that activity was depressed by the hurricanes.

19 Dec 2019 Don't Expect China's LPR to Move Much, if at all, for December (Publication Centre)

The PBoC reduced its 14-day reverse repo by 5bp to 2.65% in a routine operation yesterday.

19 December 2017 House Prices Look Set Merely to Flatline in 2018 (Publication Centre)

House prices are on course to rise only by around 2% this year, the smallest increase for five years.

19 December 2017 New Home Sales and Construction Appear Set to Rocket Next Year (Publication Centre)

In the short-term, all the housing data are volatile. But you can be sure that if the recent pace of new home sales is sustained, housing construction will rise.

13 October. 2016 The FOMC is Profoundly Split (Publication Centre)

It would not be fair to describe the FOMC as gridlocked, because that would imply no clear way out of the current position. Members' views of the risks to the economy, the state of the labor market, and the degree of inflation risk are all over the map, and the chance of a broad consensus emerging any time soon is slim.

19 Dec 2019 Below-Target Inflation Next Year Won't Warrant Monetary Stimulus (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at 1.5% in November, marking the fourth consecutive below-target print, though it was a tenth above both the MPC's forecast and the consensus.

19 Dec 2019 Another Poor Quarter Ahead for Construction in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy all but stalled at the start of Q4.

18 Sept 2019 Retail Sales Likely Continued Their Above-Consensus Run in August (Publication Centre)

We expect August's retail sales figures, released on Thursday, to surprise modestly to the upside, supporting the MPC's view--which it will reaffirm later that day--that no fresh monetary stimulus is required any time soon.

18 Sept 2020 The ECB Will Struggle to Hold its Optimistic Line on Inflation (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed EZ inflation data for August kick ed-off a period in which the numbers will be scrutinised more closely than usual.

18 September 2017 How it Could all go Wrong for U.S. Markets, and Quickly (Publication Centre)

For the record, we think the Fed should raise rates in December, given the long lags in monetary policy and the clear strength in the economy, especially the labor market, evident in the pre-hurricane data.

19 Aug 2020 An Updated Look at EZ Inflation Expectations, Not Much Going On (Publication Centre)

Recession, rising unemployment and disinflation remain the main themes for economists in the context of charting the course of the Covid-19 crisis.

18 June 2019 Mr. Kuroda says Capex is Key for Japan's Economy How is it Doing (Publication Centre)

Japanese policymakers have a wary eye on the weakness in industrial production and exports.

18 June 2019 Chainstore Sales Growth is Set to Slow Sharply Don't Worry (Publication Centre)

The chainstore sales numbers have been hard to read over the past year.

18 Aug 2020 Retail Sales Likely were Well Above Pre-Covid Levels in July (Publication Centre)

July's retail sales report, released on Friday, looks set to be the third in a row to surprise the consensus to the upside.

18 Aug 2020 The Devil is in the Detail in the Eurozone Construction Data (Publication Centre)

This week's EZ construction report--data released on Wednesday at 11.00 CET--will close the book on the second quarter in the euro area economy, providing further evidence that private sector activity rebounded as lockdowns were lifted.

18 Dec 2019 Boeing's Production Cut will Depress GDP Slightly, IP Hit Much Harder (Publication Centre)

Boeing's announcement that it will temporarily cut production of 737MAX aircraft to zero in January, from the current 42 per month pace, will depress first quarter economic growth, though not by much.

18 Dec 2019 Labour Market Data Remain Strong Enough to Keep Rate Cuts at Bay (Publication Centre)

The labour market remains healthy enough to persuade the MPC to keep its powder dry over the coming months.

18 Aug 2020 Japan's Recovery from the Q2 Carnage is Already Disappointing (Publication Centre)

Japan's economy shrank by an historic 7.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, much worse than the 0.6% slip in the first quarter.

18 April 2018 Patience is a Virtue in Eurozone Construction, the Trend is Decent (Publication Centre)

Today's economic data will add to the evidence that construction in the Eurozone slowed in the first quarter.

17 Oct 2019 The Upward Trend in Domestically- Generated Inflation Is Clear (Publication Centre)

The case for the MPC to hold back from implementing more stimulus was bolstered by September's consumer prices figures.

17 Sept 2019 August IP Likely Rebounded, but the Trend is Deteriorating (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing is in recession, with few signs yet that a floor is near, still less a recovery.

17 September 2018 The EZ Output Gap Has Closed, But will Inflation Follow? (Publication Centre)

Last week's comments by Mr. Draghi--see here-- indicate that the ECB is increasingly confident that core inflation will continue to move slowly towards the target of "below, but close to 2%", despite elevated external risks, and marginally tighter monetary policy.

18 April 2018 Colombia's Softer Activity Data is Temporary, Expect an Acceleration (Publication Centre)

The February activity report in Colombia showed a modest pick-up in manufacturing activity and strength in the retail sales numbers.

18 Dec 2019 The BoJ will be Happy to Focus on the Positives this Thursday (Publication Centre)

The BoJ is likely to stay on hold this week for all its main policy settings.

18 Feb 2020 Brazil's Momentum Slowed in Late Q4, but it Will Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively weak footing. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 0.3% month- to-month, pushing down the adjusted year-over- year rate to 0.3%, from a downwardly-revised 0.7% increase in November.

18 July 2018 Peru's Economy Rebounded in the First Half Will the Strength Continue (Publication Centre)

Data released over the weekend confirm that the Peruvian economy enjoyed a strong second quarter. The economic activity index rose 6.4% year-over-year in May, well above market expectations, and up from 3.2% in Q1.

18 July 2018 Powell Says Everything's on Track Gradual Hike to Continue, "for now" (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell delivered no great surprises in his semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday, but he did hint, at least, at the idea that interest rates might at some point have to rise more quickly than shown in the current dot plot: "... the FOMC believes that - for now - the best way forward is to keep gradually raising the federal funds rate [our italics]."

18 June 2018 Colombia and Argentina, Facing Different Near-Term Prospects (Publication Centre)

Polls suggest that Ivan Duque has comfortably beat Gustavo Petro to become Colombia's president.

18 June 2018 The U.S. Will Blink Before Imposing Tariffs on Chinese Consumer Goods (Publication Centre)

The imposition of 25% tariffs on $50B-worth of imports from China, announced Friday, had been clearly flagged in media reports over the previous couple of weeks.

18 July 2017 Rising Leverage will Prevent House Prices from Falling this year (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in households' real incomes has taken a swift toll on the housing market this year. Measures of house prices from Nationwide, Halifax, LSL and Rightmove essentially have flatlined since the end of 2016, following four years of rapid growth, as our first chart shows.

18 January 2019 Manufacturing Output Likely Jumped in December Don't be Deceived (Publication Centre)

The monthly industrial production numbers are collected and released by the Fed, rather than the BEA, so today's December report will not be delayed by the government shutdown.

18 Feb 2020 December Data to Sustain Picture of Solid Job Gains But Slowing Wages (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market report looks set to be a mixed bag, with growth in employment remaining strong, but further signs that momentum in average weekly wages has faded.

18 January 2018 Housing Starts Likely Dipped Last Month, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Hot on the heels of yesterday's news that the NAHB index of homebuilders' sentiment and activity dropped by two points this month -- albeit from December's 18-year high -- we expect to learn today that housing starts fell last month.

18 January 2019 December's Retail Sales Report Will Be a Clanger (Publication Centre)

The consensus forecast for retail sales in December has been consistently too upbeat in recent years and we think most analysts are too sanguine yet again.

16 June 2020 Lockdowns Continue to Put the Andean Economies Under Strain (Publication Centre)

Economic activity remains under severe strain in the Andes.

18 July 2017 Will Foreign Trade be a Drag on Second Quarter GDP Growth? (Publication Centre)

Markets usually ignore the monthly import price data, presumably because they are far removed, especially at the headline level, from the consumer price numbers the Fed targets.

14 Oct 2019 If German CPI Data won't Guide Bunds, Maybe Fiscal Policy will (Publication Centre)

Friday's data added further colour to the September CPI data for the Eurozone.

14 Oct 2019 Resilient Consumption in Brazil, Manufacturing in Mexico Slowing (Publication Centre)

Hard data for Brazil and Mexico, released last week, support the case for further interest rate cuts.

14 Oct 2019: A Brexit Deal with a NI-Only Backstop won't get Through this HoC (Publication Centre)

Sterling leapt to $1.27, from $1.22 last week, amid some positive signals from all sides engaged in Brexit talks.

14 Oct 2020 China's Import Surge is All About Catch-up and Commodity Prices (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus plunged unexpectedly in September, to $37B, marking the lowest level since March.

14 November 2018 Still Enough Slack to Prevent Wage Growth From Rising Further (Publication Centre)

September's labour market report suggests that wage growth won't continue to rise for much longer.

16 June 2017 Housing Construction Should Rebound (Publication Centre)

We were surprised by the weakness of the April housing starts report; we expected a robust recovery after the March numbers were depressed by the severe snowstorms across a large swathe of the country. Instead, single-family permits rose only trivially and multi-family activity--which is always volatile--fell by 9% month-to-month.

14 Nov 2019 Don't Mistake Below-Target Inflation for Underlying Weakness (Publication Centre)

The fall in CPI inflation to just 1.5% in October-- its lowest rate since November 2016--from 1.7% in September, isn't a game-changer for the monetary policy outlook.

14 Nov 2019 EZ Industrial Production Fell in Q3, and Likely Will Slide Again in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in the EZ was held above water by Ireland at the end of Q3.

14 Nov 2019 Healthcare Inflation is Gathering Steam How Far will it Rise (Publication Centre)

It's hard to know what to make of the October CPI data, which recorded hefty increases in healthcare costs and used car prices but a huge drop in hotel room rates, and big decline in apparel prices, and inexplicable weakness in rents.

14 November 2018 Expect a Rebound in October's Core CPI, but the Trends are Benign (Publication Centre)

The near-term U.S. inflation outlook is benign, but it is not without risk.

14 Oct 2020 The Labour Market is in the Eye of the Storm, More Job Losses Loom (Publication Centre)

On balance, yesterday's labour market statistics were better than we had expected.

14 September 2018 MPC Emphasises Rising Downside Risks, Rather than Better GDP Data (Publication Centre)

The MPC surprised nobody yesterday by voting unanimously to keep Bank Rate at 0.75% and to maintain the stocks of gilt and corporate bond purchases at £435B and £10B, respectively.

15 Aug 2019 Today's Data Wave Will be Split Strong Consumers, Weak Industry (Publication Centre)

Today brings an astonishing eight economic reports, so by the end of the wave of numbers we'll have a pretty good idea of how the economy performed in the first month of the third quarter.

15 August. 2016 Don't Fret Over the July Retail Sales and PPI Data (Publication Centre)

Let's be clear: The July retail sales numbers do not mean the consumer is rolling over, and the PPI numbers do not mean that disinflation pressure is intensifying. We argued in the Monitor last Friday, ahead of the sales data, that the 4.2% surge in second quarter consumption--likely to be revised up slightly--could not last, and the relative sluggishness of the July core retail sales numbers is part of the necessary correction. Headline sales were depressed by falling gasoline prices, which subtracted 0.2%.

15 December 2017 Strong November Sales Mean Q3 Consumption Heading for 3% (Publication Centre)

The 0.8% jump in nominal November retail sales is consistent with a 0.4% rise in real total consumption, which in turn suggests that the fourth quarter as a whole is likely to see a near-3% annualized gain.

15 February 2018 One Outsized Core CPI Gain does not Make a Trend, it Looks Like Noise (Publication Centre)

The January core CPI numbers are consistent with our view that the U.S. faces bigger upside inflation risks than markets and the Fed believe.

15 April 2019 What Does the Art 50 Extension Say About the EU's Brexit View (Publication Centre)

The EU's decision to grant the U.K. an extension under Article 50, until October 31, reveals two key aspects of continental Europe's position on Brexit.

15 Apr 2020 China's Import Outperformance Likely Reflects Early Q1 Strength (Publication Centre)

China's unadjusted March trade balance rebounded to a surplus of $20B, from a combined deficit of -$7B in the first two months of the year.

15 Apr 2020 An Advance Guide to Next Week's Data, They'll Be Grim (Publication Centre)

The U.K. Monitor will be on a short break soon for paternity leave, so we are taking this opportunity to preview next week's data releases.

15 Apr 2020 Brace for Grim March Retail Sales and IP Reports, with Worse to Come (Publication Centre)

Today brings a wave of data which will help analysts narrow their estimates for first quarter GDP growth, and will offer some clues, albeit limited, about the early part of the second quarter.

13 Sept 2019 House Price Growth Has Reached its Nadir, Expect a Recovery in 2020 (Publication Centre)

The housing market appears to be emerging gradually from the coma induced by Brexit uncertainty at the start of the year.

14 May 2020 Jobless Claims Likely Fell Again, but the Consensus Looks Ambitious (Publication Centre)

We're expecting to see the sixth straight drop in initial jobless claims this week, though we think the 2,500K consensus forecast is too ambitious.

14 May 2019 French Manufacturing Output is Headed for a Fall in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that the upturn in French manufacturing petered out at the end of Q1.

14 December 2018 Remainer Tory Rebels now have Greater Leverage (Publication Centre)

After the drama of the last few days, Brexit developments now are set to proceed at a slower pace.

14 Feb 2020 Eurozone Q4 GDP Growth will be Revised Down Today, to Zero (Publication Centre)

We've already raised a red flag for today's second Q4 GDP estimate in the Eurozone, but for good measure, we repeat the argument here.

14 Feb 2020 Japan's Q4 GDP Likely Plunged, Covid-19 Spells Recession (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP likely dropped by a huge 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, after the 0.5% increase in Q3, with risks skewed firmly to the downside.

14 Feb 2020 Javid's Resignation Opens the Door to Bolder Fiscal Stimulus (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Javid's resignation, only eight months after assuming the role, is the clearest sign yet that the Johnson-led government wants fiscal policy to play a bigger part in stimulating the economy over the next couple of years.

14 December 2016 Labour Data Set to Show a Clearer Deteriorating Trend (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market figures likely will bring further signs that firms are recruiting more cautiously and limiting pay awards, due to still-elevated economic uncertainty.

14 Aug 2019 Trump Blinks Again, but Some Consumer Goods will be Tariffed (Publication Centre)

President Trump blinked again yesterday, delaying tariffs on some $150B-worth of Chinese consumer goods until December 15.

13 September 2018 Expect a Dovish Session From the ECB Today (Publication Centre)

We are easily excitable when it comes to monetary policy and macroeconomics, but we are not expecting fireworks at today's ECB meetings.

14 Apr 2020 Don't Expect the Treasury to Pay Down its Overdraft Quickly (Publication Centre)

The BoE announced on Thursday that it had agreed the Treasury could increase its usage of its Ways and Means facility--effectively the government's overdraft at the central bank--without limit.

14 Apr 2020 Further Fed Action and Better Virus News Limits Downside S&P Risk (Publication Centre)

We argued a couple of weeks ago that the stock market could suffer a relapse, on the grounds that valuations hadn't fallen far enough from their peak to reflect the extent of the hit to the economy; that hopes for an early re-opening were likely to prove forlorn; and that investors were likely to be spooked by the incoming coronavirus data.

14 Aug 2019 Labour Market Data Point to Higher Rates if a No-Deal Brexit is Averted (Publication Centre)

Another month, another strong set of labour market data which undermine the case for the MPC to cut Bank Rate, provided a no-deal Brexit is avoided.

14 February 2017 Brace for January Data to Show Another Hefty Rise in CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

January's consumer price report, released today, likely will show that CPI inflation jumped to 1.9%--its highest rate since June 2014--from 1.6% in December. Inflation will continue to take big upward steps over the coming months, as retailers pass on to consumers large increase in import prices and energy companies increase tariffs.

14 February 2018 Gas Prices Will Lift the January CPI: Core has Risks in Both Directions (Publication Centre)

We have no real argument with the consensus forecasts for the January CPI, with the headline likely to rise by 0.3%, with the core up 0.2%.

14 July 2020 PAYE Data to Show Employment Continued to Fall in June (Publication Centre)

We're bracing for another ugly set of labour market data on Thursday, showing that both employment and earnings fell sharply in May and June.

14 March 2018 Fundamentals for Brazilian Consumers Continue to Improve (Publication Centre)

The consumer in Brazil was off to a strong start to the first quarter, and we expect household spending will continue to boost GDP growth in the near term.

14 March 2018 Mean Reversion in the CPI Confirms January's Core Jump was a Fluke (Publication Centre)

A significant minority of investors were betting on a repeat of January's outsized 0.349% increase in the core, judging from the immediate market reaction to the release of the February CPI report.

14 May 2018 Could Foreign Trade Propel Second Quarter GDP Growth to 5%? (Publication Centre)

To answer the question: Yes, growth could hit 5% in the second quarter.

14 July 2020 India's Industrial Bounce won't get Much Help from Weak Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The year-over-year collapse of industrial production in India eased substantially in May, to -35%, from -58% in April, close to our -32% forecast.

14 Jan 2020 Inflation in Brazil Ended 2019 Above the BCB's Target - 2020 will be Fine (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil Ended 2019 Above the BCB's Target; 2020 will be Fine

14 Jan 2020 Core CPI Inflation is Contained, but Risks Abound for December (Publication Centre)

Our base case is that the core CPI rose 0.2% in December, but the net risk probably is to the upside. We see scope for significant increases in sectors as diverse as used autos, apparel, healthcare, and rent, but nothing is guaranteed.

14 Jan 2020 Don't Read November's GDP Report in Isolation (Publication Centre)

Investors concluded too hastily yesterday that November's GDP report boosted the chances that the MPC will cut Bank Rate at its upcoming meeting on January 30.

14 Jan 2020 Early Signs of an IP Recovery in India Build the Case for the RBI's Pause (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in India turned around sharply in November, rising by 1.8% year-over-year, following October's 4.0% plunge and beating the consensus forecast for a trivial 0.3% uptick.

15 February 2019 January Retail Sales Will Stop the Flow of Downbeat News (Publication Centre)

We expect the run of downbeat news on the U.K. economy to be punctuated today by January's retail sales figures.

15 August 2018 Soft July Headline Retail Sales Numbers will Hide a Solid Core (Publication Centre)

The first wave of domestic third quarter data crashes ashore this morning.

16 Apr 2020 Jobless Claims Look Set to Fall Sharply, but Remain Insanely High (Publication Centre)

For all the excitement generated by yesterday's raft of appalling economic reports, the weekly jobless claims numbers still offer the best, and almost real-time, guide to the big picture.

16 April 2018 Core Retail Sales Back on Track After Hurricane-Induced Swings? (Publication Centre)

We are not concerned by the slowdown in retail sales over the past few months.

16 Aug 2019 Consumption Started Q3 Strongly Industry Still in the Doldrums (Publication Centre)

The surge in July core retail sales was flattered by the impact of the Amazon Prime Event, which helped drive a 2.8% leap in sales at nonstore retailers.

16 August 2017 As Good as it Gets for German GDP Growth in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Q2 GDP report in Germany was solid, but the headline disappointed slightly. GDP growth slowed to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter from an upwardly- revised 0.7% rise in Q1. The year-over-year rate, however, rose to 2.1% from a revised 2.0% in Q1.

15 Sept. 2015 August Retail Sales "Soft" Again? But the Real Story is Different (Publication Centre)

Today's wave of data will be mixed, but most of the headlines are likely to be on the soft side, so the reports are very unlikely to trigger a wave of last minute defections to the hawkish side of the FOMC. As always, though, the headlines don't necessarily capture the underlying story, and that's certainly been the case with the retail sales data this year. Plunging prices for gas and imported goods, especially audio-video items, have driven down the rate of growth of nominal retail sales, but real sales have performed much better.

15 Sept 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Fell to a Near- Zero Rate in August (Publication Centre)

August's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, is harder to forecast than usual, given high uncertainty regarding the impact of the cut in VAT for the hospitality sector, as well as the consequences of the ONS' decision to resume collecting data from physical stores.

15 Oct 2019 China's Year-over-Year Trade Figures are Overly Grim (Publication Centre)

China's September imports missed expectations, but commentators and markets tend to focus on the year-over-year numbers.

15 Oct 2019 The China Trade Nothingburger won't Turn the Economy Around (Publication Centre)

The New York Times called the China trade agreement reached Friday "half a deal", but that's absurdly generous.

15 Oct 2020 EZ Industrial Output in August was Distorted by Seasonals (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production data in the EZ suggest that the rebound in manufacturing slowed sharply midway through Q3.

15 Jan 2020 Inflation in the Andean Economies Remains Low, but Policies will Differ (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Andean economies ended 2019 well within central banks' objectives, despite many domestic and external challenges.

16 August 2018 Domestic Demand Strength from Q2 Spilled Over into Early Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's wave of data suggested that a good part of the strength in final demand in the second quarter was sustained into the first month of this quarter, and perhaps the second too.

16 Dec 2019 "Phase One" Picked Low-Hanging Fruit... Now for the Hard Part (Publication Centre)

ate last week, China and the U.S. reached an agreement, averting the planned U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese consumer goods that were slated to be imposed on December 15.

16 July 2018 Upside Risks to the Consensus for June CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

We expect June's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation increased to 2.7%, from 2.4% in May, above the consensus, 2.6%, and the Bank of England's forecast, 2.5%.

16 July 2019 No End in Sight Yet to the Industrial Consumer Bifurcation (Publication Centre)

Today's brings the June retail sales and industrial production reports, after which we'll update our second quarter GDP forecast.

16 July 2020 CPI Inflation Remains Set for a Near- Zero Rate Soon, Despite June's Rise (Publication Centre)

We still expect CPI inflation to decline a little further in the second half of this year, despite its surprise increase to 0.6% in June, from 0.5% in May.

16 July 2020 The BoJ's Q2 Outlook Tries to Walk a Tightrope as Activity Rebounds (Publication Centre)

July's BoJ meeting was a quiet one, with the Board keeping the -0.10% policy balance rate and the 10- year yield target of "around zero", as widely predicted.

16 July 2018 No Hard Evidence that Tariffs are Hurting Business Investment... Yet (Publication Centre)

We can see no hard evidence, yet, that the expanding trade war with China and other U.S. trading partners is hitting business investment.

16 Jan 2020 No Repeat of the December 2018 Plunge in Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

Ahead of the release of the retail sales report for December 2018, markets expected to see unchanged non-auto sales.

16 Dec 2019 Has the Tories' Landslide Paved the Way for a Rate Hike Next Year? (Publication Centre)

Markets greatly cheered the Conservatives' landslide victory on Friday, but remained cautious on the potential for the MPC to return to the tightening cycle it started in 2017.

16 Dec 2019 The Trade Deal Should Lift Business Sentiment, but Modestly (Publication Centre)

The "Phase One" China trade deal announced late last week is a step in the right direction, but a small one. With no official text available as we reach our deadline, we're relying on media reporting, but the outline of the agreement is clear.

16 February 2018 Healthcare Costs Drove up January's Core PPI (Publication Centre)

Having panicked at the January hourly earnings numbers, markets now seem to have decided that higher inflation might not be such a bad thing after all, and stocks rallied after both Wednesday's core CPI overshoot and yesterday's repeat performance in the PPI.

16 Jan 2020 CPI Inflation Will Rebound in Q1, Weakening the Case for Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate at its meeting on January 30 jumped to 63%, from 44%, following the release of December's consumer prices report.

15 Oct 2019 Breakthrough or False Dawns in Brexit and the Trade Wars? (Publication Centre)

Few Eurozone investors are going blindly to accept the rosy premise of last week's relief rally in equities that both a Brexit and a U.S-China trade deal are now, suddenly, and miraculously, within touching distance. But they're allowed to hope, nonetheless.

15 Oct 2020 Small Business Payrolls are Falling, Other Real-Time Data are Less Bad (Publication Centre)

Most of the states being hit hardest by the latest wave of Covid infections, in terms of new cases and hospitalizations per capita, have relatively small populations.

15 Oct 2019 Below-Consensus September CPI Won't Strengthen Case for Stimulus (Publication Centre)

We expect September's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation held steady at 1.7%, below the 1.8% consensus.

15 July. 2016 Autos Will Depress Headline June Spending, Core Picture is Fine (Publication Centre)

When the dust settles after today's wave of data, we expect to have learned that core retail sales continued to rise in June, core inflation nudged back up to its cycle high, and manufacturing output rebounded after an auto-led drop in May. None of these reports will be enough to push the Fed into early action, but they will add to the picture of a reasonably solid domestic economy ahead of the U.K. Brexit referendum.

15 June 2020 The Recovery in GDP will Lose Momentum as the Year Drags On (Publication Centre)

The economy will be a shadow of its former self over the remainder of this year, following the heavy pummelling from Covid-19.

15 Mar. 2016 Downside Risk for Retail Sales, but Real Consumption is What Counts (Publication Centre)

This week's wave of data starts today, but most of the attention will fall on just one report, February retail sales. We expect weak-looking numbers, thanks to the plunge in gas prices, which likely will subtract some 0.6% from the non-auto sales number.

15 July 2020 Slowing Rent Increases Emerge as a Key Drag on the Core CPI (Publication Centre)

We aren't much bothered by the one-tenth overshoot in the June core CPI, reported yesterday.

15 July 2020 EZ Manufacturing Workers Face a Difficult Time in the Next Year (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ manufacturing data were slightly underwhelming, at least compared to expectations.

15 Jan 2020 The Rise in Continuing Jobless Claims is No Cause for Concern (Publication Centre)

The weekly jobless claims numbers are due Thursday, as usual, but in the wake of a flood of emails from readers, all asking a variant of the same question-- should we be worried about the rise in continuing jobless claims?--we want to address the issue now.

15 Jan 2020 Will the Composite PMI Rise Enough to Keep the MPC on Hold? (Publication Centre)

Members of the Monetary Policy Committee have signalled that January's flash Markit/CIPS composite PMI, released on Friday 24, will have a major bearing on their policy decision the following week.

15 January 2019 The Trade War is not the Only Factor Hurting Stocks, but it's the Biggest (Publication Centre)

In our Monitor of January 10, we argued that the market turmoil in Q4 was largely driven by the U.S.- China trade war, and that a resolution--which we expect by the spring, at the latest--would trigger a substantial easing of financial conditions.

15 March 2018 Retail Sales have Corrected from the Post-Hurricane Surge (Publication Centre)

Don't worry about the weakness of the recent retail sales numbers. The three straight 0.1% month-to- month declines tell us nothing about the underlying state of the consumer.

15 July 2020 Sluggish Initial Virus Response to Blame for May's Meagre GDP Rise (Publication Centre)

The costs of the government's failure to lock down quickly in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, ultimately necessitating long-lasting restrictions, were visible in May's GDP figures.

15 May 2020 Japan's H1 GDP will be Horrible, Spread of Damage is Less Certain (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP likely dropped by 1.1% quarter- on-quarter in the first quarter, even from the favourable Q4 base, when it fell by 1.8%.

15 Nov 2019 Core Retail Sales Growth has to Slow in Q4, but How Far (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of nominal core retail sales substantially outstripped the rate of growth of nominal personal incomes, after tax, in both the second and third quarters.

15 March 2019 Attempts by the PM to Revive Her Brexit Deal will Fail Again (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister is threatening to bring back her Brexit deal to the Commons for a third time before March 20, in a final bid to win over the rebels within the Tory party who want a harder Brexit.

15 November 2017 Full-Year GDP Growth in the EZ Will be Close to 2.5% in 2017 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second batch of Q3 GDP data in the euro area provided further evidence of a strong and stable cyclical upturn in the economy.

15 May 2020 Food Service, Autos and Gas Drops Signal Downside Retail Sales Risk (Publication Centre)

Our current base-case forecast for the second quarter is a 30% annualized drop in GDP, based on our assessment of the hit to discretionary spending by both businesses and consumers.

15 Nov 2019 More Evidence Emerges of Stabilisation in the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second Q3 GDP estimate confirmed that the EZ economy expanded by 0.2% quarter-on- quarter in Q3, the same pace as in Q2, leaving the year-over-year rate unchanged at 1.2%.

15 May 2019 Q2 Consumption on Course for 3%, Despite Auto Drag on April Retailing (Publication Centre)

The gap between the official measure of the rate of growth of core retail sales and the Redbook chainstore sales numbers remains bafflingly huge, but we have no specific reason to expect it to narrow substantially with the release of the April report today.

15 March 2019 Will Brazil's Supply and Demand Divergence Continue this Year (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector keeps losing momentum, despite interest rates at record lows and improving confidence.

15 March 2019 Manufacturing Output Likely Rose in February, but the Outlook is Grim (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing is not in recession, yet, despite the reams of gloomy analysis of the sector, including our own.

15 May 2018 Autos Likely Constrained April Retail Sales, Core Trend is Gently Upwards (Publication Centre)

The story of U.S. retail sales since last summer is mostly a story about the impact of the hurricanes, Harvey in particular.

23 Mar. 2016 Welcome March Rebound in Eurozone Economic Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Economic sentiment data, which rebounded in March, continue to suggest slight downside risk to EZ GDP growth in Q1. The composite Eurozone PMI in March rose modestly to 53.7 from 53.0 in February, only partially erasing the weakness in recent months. The PMI dipped slightly over the quarter as a whole, although not enough to change the EZ GDP forecast in a statistically meaningful way.

23 May 2019 Did the Main EZ Survey Data Take a Further Tumble in May (Publication Centre)

Today's EZ calendar is a busy one.

24 Nov. 2015 Bullish PMI Survey Won't Prevent Further ECB Stimulus (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI reports repeated the message of a firm cyclical Eurozone recovery, despite investors' angst over deflation and the underwhelming Q3 GDP data earlier this month. The composite index in the zone rose to a 54-month high of 54.4 in November from 53.9 in October, lifted by strong output and solid new business growth. Our first chart shows the rise in the PMI points to slight upside risks in Q4 to the four quarter trend in real GDP growth of 0.4% per quarter.

22 June. 2016 Resilient EZ Survey Data Ahead, but Sentiment Would Fall on Brexit (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ZEW investor sentiment in Germany shows showed no signs that uncertainty over the U.K. referendum is taking its toll on EZ investors. The expectations index surged to 19.2 in June, from 6.4 in May, the biggest month-to-month jump since January last year, when investors were eagerly expecting the ECB's QE announcement.

24 October 2017 Which to Believe, the Markit PMI or the ISM Survey? (Publication Centre)

A startlingly wide gap has emerged over the past nine months between the ISM manufacturing index and Markit's manufacturing PMI.

13 January 2017 Will Consumers' Spending Rise in Line with the Sentiment Surveys? (Publication Centre)

December's retail sales numbers are the most important of the year for retailers, but they don't necessarily tell us anything about the future prospects for consumers' spending or the broad economy. The December 2016 numbers, however, might be different, because they capture consumers' behavior in the first full month after the election.

27 Oct. 2015 Upbeat IFO Survey, Despite Dip in Headline Business Climate Index (Publication Centre)

Economic sentiment in the Eurozone's largest economy stayed solid at the start of the fourth quarter, despite subdued manufacturing and poor investor sentiment. The headline IFO business climate index fell slightly to 108.2 in October from 108.5 in September, due to a fall in the current assessment index. The expectations index rose, though, to 103.8 from 103.5 last month pointing to a resilient outlook for businesses and solid GDP growth in coming quarters.

11 May. 2016 Outside the Oil Sector, the NFIB Survey Points to Decent Capex (Publication Centre)

We're pretty sure our forecast of a levelling-off in capital spending in the oil sector will prove correct. Unless you think the U.S. oil business is going to disappear, capex has fallen so far already that it must now be approaching the incompressible minimum required for replacement parts and equipment needed to keep production going.

14 November 2017 NFIB Survey set to Rebound After the Hurricane Hit, Capex Strong? (Publication Centre)

The minutes of the September 19/20 FOMC meeting record that "...it was noted that the National Federation of Independent Business reported that greater optimism among small businesses had contributed to a sharp increase in the proportion of small firms planning increases in their capital expenditures."

21 Apr. 2015 Survey evidence signalling faster wage gains is mounting (Publication Centre)

We have argued for some time that the plunge in gasoline prices will constrain core inflation over the course of this year, by reducing production and distribution costs for a broad array of goods.

9 August. 2016 NFIB Survey Signals Better Non-Oil Business Capex as Soon as Q3 (Publication Centre)

The headline NFIB index of small business activity and sentiment in July likely will be little changed from June--we expect a half-point dip, while the consensus forecast is for a repeat of June's 94.5--but what we really care about is the capex intentions componen

U.S. Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim. Thank the trade war, which means no improvement is likely anytime soon.

29 Apr 2020 Surveyed Inflation Expectations in the EZ are Soaring, What Gives? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's French INSEE consumer confidence data provided a fascinating glimpse into the reality for households during these strange times. The headline index fell by "just" eight points in April, to 95 from 103 in March, comfortably beating the consensus for a crash to 80.

7 November 2018 Sentiment Surveys are Deteriorating in Mexico Texcoco Airport Effect (Publication Centre)

Recently released data in Mexico are sending weak signals for the business outlook, and the Texcoco airport saga won't help.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Too noisy to warrant concern.

31 Oct 2019 The Dichotomy Between Surveys and Hard Data Continues (Publication Centre)

Another week, another batch of contradictory signals regarding the economy's current health.

30 April 2019 Focus on Accelerating M1 Growth amid Still-Poor Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic numbers in the Eurozone were mixed, but we are inclined to see them through rose-tinted glasses.

4 October 2017 Survey Data Suggest Recoveries in Brazil and Mexico are on Track (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian economy has been recovering at a decent pace in recent months. The labor market is on the mend, with the unemploymen t rate falling rapidly to 12.5% in August from 14% at the end of Q1.

5 October 2018 Should Surveys Pointing to Higher Core Goods Inflation be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

The CPI inflation rate for non-energy industrial goods--core goods, for short--has tracked past movements in trade-weighted sterling closely over the last ten years, because virtually all goods in this sector are imported.

2 July. 2015 Slow, but Steady, Recovery for Private Investment in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The PMI survey points to a slow, but steady improvement, in Eurozone manufacturing. The gauge rose marginally to 52.5 in June, up from 52.2 in May. This pushed the quarterly average in Q2 to 52.2, up from 51.1 in Q1. The survey is also telling a story of broad-based manufacturing strength in the two major peripheral economies, despite declines in June.

2 February 2017 Greece is another EZ risk to contend with this year (Publication Centre)

The Greek economy escaped recession in the second half of last year. Real GDP rose a cumulative 1.2% in Q2 and Q3, following a 0.6% fall in Q1. And industrial production and retail sales data suggest that the advance GDP report released later this month will show that the momentum was sustained in Q4. Headline survey data, however, indicate that downside risks to the economy remain.

2 Dec. 2014 - Eurozone Manufacturing Sector Unlikely to Recover in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The PMI survey continues to send a downbeat message on growth in the euro area despite signs of improvement in other sentiment data: The final manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone fell to 50.1 in November from 50.6 in October.

2 June 2017 The Manufacturing Sector won't put the Economy Back on Track (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector's recovery has sped up since Q1, according to Markit's latest survey, but growth still looks too weak to prevent the overall economy from struggling again in Q2.

2 December. 2016 Friendly Seasonals Set to Push Payrolls Back Above 200K? (Publication Centre)

Our payroll model, which incorporates survey data as well as the error term from our ADP forecast, points to a hefty 225K increase in November employment. We have tweaked the forecast to the upside because of the tendency in recent years for the fourth quarter numbers to be stronger than the prior trend, as our first chart shows.

2 December. 2016 Sterling's Depreciation Has Not Been a Boon for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

The deterioration of the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey in November should temper optimism about the potential benefits of sterling's depreciation. The PMI fell to 53.4 in November, from 54.2 in October.

20 Apr. 2016 EZ Credit Supply Conditions Eased in Q1, but Loan Demand Stumbled (Publication Centre)

Lending conditions in the EZ economy continued to improve in Q1, according to the ECB's bank lending survey. Business and consumer credit supply conditions eased, but mortgage lending became more difficult to come by as standards tightened sharply in Germany, France, and the Netherlands. Demand for new loans also rose, but the increase was due entirely to gains in the mortgage and consumer credit components.

2 August. 2016 The Inflation Outlook Will Tie the MPC's Hands (Publication Centre)

The pronounced weakness of activity surveys conducted since the referendum and the Governor's guidance in June, reinforced by the minutes of July's MPC meeting, indicate that a rate cut on Thursday is virtually guaranteed.

20 December 2017 The IFO Signals a Solid Q4 in Germany, Despite December Dip (Publication Centre)

German survey data did something out of character yesterday; they fell. The IFO business climate index declined to 117.2 in December from a revised 117.6 in November.

2 September. 2016 The Manufacturing PMI Overstates the Sector's Recuperation (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the rebound in the manufacturing PMI, to 53.3 in August from 48.3 in July, directly challenges our view that the economy is set to slow sharply over the coming quarters. A close look at the survey, however, suggests that the manufacturing PMI exaggerates the extent of the sector's recovery in August.

2 Oct 2019 Manufacturing in Meltdown Fear the Cross-Contamination (Publication Centre)

The dreadful September ISM manufacturing survey reinforces our view that the sector will be in recession for the foreseeable future, and that both business capex and exports are on the verge of a serious downturn.

2 November. 2016 Producer Price Rises Will Bear Down on Domestic Demand (Publication Centre)

October's Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey indicates that producers are not shying away from passing on to their customers the higher costs stemming from sterling's depreciation.

2 November. 2016 Brazil Industrial Output Remains Sluggish, but Q4 will be Better (Publication Centre)

Brazil's September industrial production report, released yesterday, confirmed the message from survey data that the sector stabilized towards the end of summer. Output rose 0.5 month-to-month, and August output was revised up by 0.3 percentage points.

17 March 2017 February's Manufacturing Data Flattered by Warm Weather? (Publication Centre)

The latest survey evidence strongly supports our view that momentum is building in the industrial economy, but the official production data continue to lag. Yesterday's March Philly Fed survey was remarkably strong, with the correction in the headline sentiment index -- inevitable, after February's 33-year high -- masking increases in all the subindexes.

17 April 2018 Brazil's Economy will Improve in Q2, but it Faces Rising Political Risk (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators and survey data in Brazil still suggest a rebound from the relatively soft GDP growth late last year and in Q1.

17 Dec. 2015 Core Inflation Lags the Economy, and Will Increase Next Year (Publication Centre)

Eurozone inflation continued its slow rebound last month. Final CPI data showed that inflation rose marginally to 0.2% in November from 0.1% in October, a bit higher than the initial estimate of 0.1%. The upward revision was due to marginally higher services inflation at 1.2%, compared to the initial 1.1% estimate. Non-energy goods inflation eased slightly to 0.5% from 0.6% last month. We have received push-back on our call for higher inflation next year, but core inflation is a lagging indicator, and it can rise independently of the story told by GDP or survey data. Core inflation tends to peak during recessions, and only starts falling later as prices are adjusted downwards, with a lag, to the cyclical downturn.

16 September. 2016 Something Bad Happened to Industry in August, Will it Last? (Publication Centre)

We have not been expecting the Fed to raise rates next week, and yesterday's data made a hike even less likely. The September Philly Fed and Empire State surveys were alarmingly weak everywhere except the headline level, and the official August production data were grim.

16 May 2018 Better Fundamentals and Fading Political Risk to Support Colombia (Publication Centre)

Colombia's Q1 GDP report confirms that the economy is improving. Leading indicators and survey data suggest that the recovery will continue over the second half of the year.

16 Mar. 2016 EZ Employment Rising Steadily, but Structural Challenges Persist (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone labour market is slowly healing following two severe recessions since 2008. Unemployment fell to a two-year low of 10.3% in January, and yesterday's quarterly labour force survey was upbeat. Fourth quarter employment rose 1.2% year-over-year, up from 1.1% in Q3, pushing total EZ employment to a new post-crisis high of 152 million.

17 Dec. 2015 Why are Retail Sales Losing Momentum? (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, recent retail spending surveys have been puzzlingly weak in light of the pick-up in employment growth, still-robust real wage gains and renewed momentum in the housing market. We think those surveys are a genuine signal that retail sales growth is slowing, and expect today's official figures to surprise to the downside. But retail sales account for just one-third of household spending, and, in contrast to the early stages of the economic recovery, consumers now are prioritising spending on services rather than goods.

17 July 2017 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Subdued, Oil is Mainly to Blame (Publication Centre)

Upbeat survey data and relatively resilient consumer spending numbers indicate that the Mexican economy is in good shape, despite a marginal slowdown in most of Q2.

19 July 2017 Credit Conditions in the Eurozone Continue to Support the Recovery (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB bank lending survey suggests that credit conditions remain favourable for the EZ economy. Credit standards eased slightly for business and mortgage lending and were unchanged for consumer credit.

19 May. 2015 Dip in Investors' Expectations is Nothing to Worry about Yet (Publication Centre)

This week sees the release of most of the key May surveys. The prospect of mean reversion following a very strong start to the year, coupled with the impact of recent market volatility, points to a modest loss of momentum, especially for surveys of investors.

19 August. 2016 The Consumer Bubble Will Pop Around the Year-End (Publication Centre)

It would be a serious mistake to conclude from July's retail sales figures that consumers' spending will be immune to the fallout of the Brexit vote. Households have yet to endure the hiring freeze and pay squeeze indicated by surveys of employers, or the price surge signalled by sterling's sharp depreciation. The real test for consumers' spending lies ahead.

17 October 2017 Manufacturing Sector set for Modest Post-Hurricane Rebound? (Publication Centre)

The first October survey evidence from the industrial economy, in the form of the Empire State report, is remarkably strong.

20 Feb. 2015 Data Surprises Don't Tell Us Much About the Economy (Publication Centre)

At the headline level, much of the recent U.S. macro dataflow has been disappointing. January retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and both ISM surveys--manufacturing and non-manufacturing-- undershot consensus, following a sharp and unexpected drop in December durable goods orders.

19 Oct. 2015 Real Wage Gains Signal the True Tightness of the Labor Market (Publication Centre)

Everyone is familiar by now with the conundrum in the labor market: How come wage gains have barely increased over the past few years even as the unemployment rate has fallen to very low levels, and business surveys scream that employers can't find the people they want? To give just one visual example of the scale of the apparent anomaly, our first chart shows the yawning gap between the headline unemployment rate and the rate of growth of hourly earnings, compared to previous cycles.

21 December 2017 Polls Point to a Hung Parliament In Catalonia in Today's Vote (Publication Centre)

Catalonia goes to the polls today, and it will be a close call. Surveys point to a hung parliament in which neither the pro-separatists nor the unionist coalition will secure an absolute majority.

23 Sept. 2015 Slow Growth in China is a Risk, but Not the Whole Story in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Expectations that the ECB will respond to weakening growth in China with Additional stimulus mean that survey data will be under particular scrutiny this week. The consensus thinks the Chinese manufacturing PMI--released overnight--will remain weak, but advance PMIs in the Eurozone should confirm that the cyclical recovery remained firm in Q3. We think the composite PMI edged slightly lower to 54.0 in September from 54.3 in August, consistent with real GDP growth of about 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3.

24 April 2019 Industrial Sentiment is Stabilizing, Despite the Richmond Fed Drop (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data were mixed, though disappointment over the weakening in the Richmond Fed survey should be tempered by a quick look at the history, shown in our first chart.

23 May 2018 The Mexican Economy is Getting Better, Despite Rising Political Risks (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's March retail sales report for Mexico is in line with other recently released hard and survey data, painting an upbeat picture of the economy.

23 March 2017 February Retail Sales Likely to Confirm Consumer Slowdown (Publication Centre)

Under normal circumstances, we would expect today's retail sales figures to reveal that volumes rebounded in February, following the 2.7% fall over the previous three months. But the continued weakness of spending surveys suggests that we should brace for another soft report.

23 July. 2015 Slow, but Steady, Recovery in French Manufacturing This Year (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing industry in France is recovering slowly, but surely. The headline INSEE index rose to 102 in July from 101 in June, close to a post-crisis high, pointing to steady improvement for manufacturers. Our first chart shows the main leading components of the survey, indicating a modest, but positive, trend in output. The increase in sentiment in July was driven by firming new orders--especially in the export sector--pushing the new orders-to-inventory ratio to an 18-month high.

23 June 2017 Will French Domestic Demand in Rebound in Q2? (Publication Centre)

The June batch of the French statistical office's business surveys continues to signal a firming cyclical recovery. The aggregate business index rose to cyclical high of 106 in June from a revised 105 in May, continuing an uptrend that began in the middle of 2016.

24 Feb. 2016 Distress Signal from IFO Confirm Downside Risks are Increasing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey sent a clear signal that the German economy's engine is stuttering. The business climate index fell to a 14-month low of 105.7 in February from 107.3 in January, and the expectations index slumped to 98.8 from 102.3. The weakness was driven by weaker sentiment in manufacturing, which plunged at its fastest rate since November 2008.

24 July 2018 Have the Latest Tariff Threats Hurt the Trade-Sensitive Richmond Fed (Publication Centre)

Of all the regional Fed and PMI business surveys, the Richmond Fed index appears to be the most sensitive to U.S. trade policy.

25 April 2019 Aircraft will Flatter March Durable Goods Orders Expect a Weak Core (Publication Centre)

If you wanted to be charitable, you could argue that the downturn in the rate of growth of core durable goods orders in recent months has not been as bad as implied by the ISM manufacturing survey.

25 August 2017 Sizzling Business Sentiment in France Signals Firm Q3 GDP (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of French business surveys contains hundreds of indicators, but its central story is comfortably simple.

25 Apr. 2016 Brazil is Still Struggling, But Recent Data Are Encouraging (Publication Centre)

Financial market performance and economic survey data on the Brazilian economy have been better than many investors and commentators feared this year. The composite PMI has improved gradually since November last year, consumer sentiment has stabilized, and national business surveys have been less bleak.

24 May 2017 The Eurozone Data Deluge Shows an Economy in Rude Health (Publication Centre)

Investors in the Eurozone were faced with a busy economic calendar yesterday, but the message from the plethora of survey data was simple. The economic recovery in the euro area is strengthening, and risks to GDP growth are firmly tilted to the upside in coming quarters.

24 June. 2015 Another Upbeat PMI Report Adds to the Cyclical Optimism in the EZ (Publication Centre)

The PMI survey yesterday painted a more upbeat picture on the Eurozone economy than we expected. The composite index rose to 54.1 in June from 53.6 in May, taking the quarterly average to its highest level since Q2 2011.

23 February 2017 The IFO Agrees with the PMI: German GDP Growth to Rise in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German IFO survey broadly confirmed the bullish message from the PMIs earlier this week. The headline business climate index rose to 111.0 in February from a revised 109.9 in January, boosted by increases in both the current assessment and the expectations index.

23 Feb. 2016 PMIs Suggest Risks to Q1 EZ GDP Growth are Tilted to the Downside (Publication Centre)

Advance PMI data yesterday supported our suspicion that Q1 economic survey data will paint a picture of slowing growth in the Eurozone economy. The composite PMI in the Eurozone fell to a 13-month low of 52.7 in February from 53.6 in January, driven by declines in both the French and German advance data.

16 June. Rising Wage Growth Points to a Rate Hike Before Year End (Publication Centre)

The MPC almost certainly will keep interest rates on hold today and likely won't give a strong steer on the outlook for policy in the minutes of its meeting, which are released at mid-day. On the whole, surveys of economic activity have been weak, indicating that GDP growth has slowed sharply in the second quarter.

21 June 2019 Financial Markets in the Eurozone are now in Bizarro-World (Publication Centre)

Swoons in EZ investor sentiment are not always reliable leading indicators for the economic surveys, but it is fair to say that risks for today's advance PMIs are tilted to the downside, following the dreadful Sentix and ZEW headlines earlier this month.

21 December 2016 Consumption Likely Remained Firm in Mexico in Q4, But it Will Slow (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's report on October private spending in Mexico was positive, suggesting that consumption remained relatively strong at the start of Q4. Retail sales jumped 1.6% month-to-month, following a modest 0.2% drop in September. October's rebound was the biggest gain since March this year, but note that wild swings are not unusual in these data. The headline year-over-year rate rose to 9.3%, from 8.1% in September, but survey data signal to a gradual slowdown in coming months to around 5%.

21 Apr. Retail Sales Likely to Disappoint in March Due to Weak Easter Trading (Publication Centre)

Signs that Easter trading was unusually poor lead us to anticipate a downside surprise from today's retail sales data for March. The BRC's Retail Sales Monitor, which surveys companies that account for 60% of total retail sales, was remarkably weak in March.

21 Apr. 2016 Further Evidence that the Manufacturing Rollover is History? (Publication Centre)

The recent sharp, if not startling, upturn in the regional manufacturing surveys should continue today with the release of the Philadelphia Fed report. The survey is constructed in the same way as the more volatile Empire State, which has rocketed in the past few months, and the headline indexes follow similar trends, as our first chart shows.

21 Oct. 2015 Are Payrolls Slowing Because the Pool of Labor Has Evaporated? (Publication Centre)

One of the possible explanations for the slowdown in payroll in growth in recent months is that the pool of labor has shrunk to the point where employers can't find the people they want to hire. That's certainly one interpretation of our first chart, which shows that the NFIB survey's measure of jobs-hard-to-fill has risen to near-record levels even as payroll growth has slowed.

22 Apr. 2015 Sustained job gains are key to Eurozone consumers sentiment (Publication Centre)

Advance April consumer survey data will likely confirm that households remain the standout driver of the cyclical recovery in the euro area. We think the headline EC consumer sentiment index rose to -1.0 in April from -3.7 in March.

22 July. 2015 The Economic Recovery in Spain is Real, But Can it Last? (Publication Centre)

We have to pinch ourselves when looking at economic data in Spain at the moment. Real GDP rose a dizzying 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, driven by solid gains of 0.7% and 1.1% in consumer's spending and investment respectively. Retail sales and industrial production data indicate GDP growth remained strong in Q2, even if survey data lost some momentum towards the end of the quarter. We will be looking for signs of further moderation in Q3, but surging private deposit growth indicate the cyclical recovery will continue.

22 Oct. 2015 Claims Signal Payroll Data are Flawed, or Labor Pool Has Run Dry (Publication Centre)

The headline payroll number each month is the difference between the flow of gross hirings and the flow of gross firings. The JOLTS report provides both numbers, with a lag, but we can track the firing side of the equation via the jobless claims numbers. Claims are volatile week-to-week, thanks to the impossibility of ironing out every seasonal fluctuation in such short-term data, but the underlying trend is an accurate measure. The claims data are based on an actual count of all the people making claims, not a sample survey like most other data. That means you'll never be blindsided by outrageous revisions, turning the story upside-down.

22 July. 2015 Chain Store Sales Growth Will Slow Further - Don't be Misled (Publication Centre)

The downshift in the rate of growth of retail sales, which has caused a degree of consternation among investors, likely has further to run. The Redbook chain store sales survey clearly warned at the turn of the year that a slowdown was coming, but forecasters didn't want hear the warning: Five of the seven non-auto retail sales numbers released this year have undershot consensus.

22 February 2018 Hold The Press: We Have a Downbeat Eurozone PMI Report (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data presented Eurozone investors with an unfamiliar sight; a big downside surprise in the survey data.

22 February 2017 PMI Data in the Eurozone Signal a Strengthening Economy (Publication Centre)

Our view that EZ survey data would take a step back in February was severely challenged by yesterday's PMI reports. The composite index in the Eurozone rose to 56.0 in February, from 54.4 in January, lifted by a jump in the services index and a small rise in the manufacturing index.

20 October. 2016 Rising Prices Will Arrest the Strong Trend in Retail Sales Next Year (Publication Centre)

It's hard to have much conviction in any forecast for September retail sales, as the relationship between the official data and the surveys has weakened considerably.

15 Jan. 2016 Downside Risk for December Retail Sales and Industrial Output (Publication Centre)

After a very light week for economic data so far, everything changes today, with an array of reports on both activity and inflation. We expect headline weakness across the board, with downside risks to consensus for the December retail sales and industrial production numbers, and the January Empire State survey and Michigan consumer sentiment. The damage will b e done by a combination of falling oil prices, very warm weather, relative to seasonal norms, and the stock market.

09 Feb. 2016 Investors Should Brace for Poor German GDP Data this Week (Publication Centre)

German Q4 GDP data this week will give little comfort to investors searching for signs of a resilient economy in the face of increased market volatility. The consensus expects unchanged GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with solid and stable survey data. But downbeat industrial production and retail sales data point to notable downside risk.

09 Mar. 2016 Why are Chainstore Sales so Weak Compared to the Official Data? (Publication Centre)

The Redbook chain store sales survey used to be our favorite indicator of the monthly core retail sales numbers, but over the past year it has parted company from the official data. Year-over-year growth in Redbook sales has slowed to just 0.7% in February, from a recent peak of 4.6% in the year to December 2014

08 May. 2015 Payroll Set to Rebound In April - a Return to the 275K Trend? (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the soft-looking ADP employment report released on Wednesday, the true consensus for today's official payroll number likely is lower than the 230K reported in the Bloomberg survey. As we argued in the Monitor yesterday, though, we view ADP as a lagging indicator and we don't use it is as a forecasting tool.

08 May. 2015 Brazil's Weak Growth Not Sufficient to Stop the Tightening Process (Publication Centre)

This week's hard data confirmed the bleak situation of Brazil's industrial sector, signalled over the last few months by key leading indicators such as the PMI manufacturing and the CNI business confidence surveys. March industrial production fell by 0.8% month-to-month and 3.5% year-over-year, following a downwardly-revised 9.4% contraction in February.

08 Jan. 2016 Expect Robust Jobs Data, but Downside Risk for Wages (Publication Centre)

The underlying trend in payroll growth is running at about 225K-to-250K, perhaps more, and the leading indicators we follow suggest that's a reasonable starting point for our December forecast. The trend in jobless claims is extraordinarily low and stable--the week-to-week volatility is eye-catching, especially over the holidays, but unimportant--and indicators of hiring remain robust. The unusually warm weather in the eastern half of the country between the November and December survey weeks also likely will give payrolls a small nudge upwards, with construction likely the key beneficiary, as in November.

1 Apr. 2015 The Dollar is hurting exporters - more pain to come (Publication Centre)

The easiest way to track the impact of the rising dollar on real economic activity is via the export orders component of the ISM manufacturing survey. We have been profoundly skeptical of the value of the ISM headline index, because it suffers from substantial seasonal adjustment problems, but the export orders index seems not to be similarly afflicted.

1 Apr. 2015 Tightening Bias Remains as Chile's Inflation Forecast is Increased (Publication Centre)

Chile's economic sector survey, released on Monday, provides further evidence that the cyclical recovery in the economy continues, albeit at a moderate pace. On the demand side, the rebound is still in place, with retail sales jumping 2.0% month-to-month in February and the underlying trend firm.

1 Oct 2019 ISM Manufacturing Likely Rose a bit in September, but it Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

The obsession of markets and the media with the industrial sector means that today's ISM manufacturing survey will be scrutinized far more closely than is justified by its real importance.

1 Oct. 2015 Deflation Will Likely Bully the ECB to Expand QE this Month (Publication Centre)

Economic survey data have been upbeat recently, but key Eurozone data releases yesterday suggest the ECB will be under pressure to increase monetary policy stimulus further this month. The advance inflation estimate showed that the euro area slipped back into deflation in September, as inflation fell to -0.1% year-over- year, from +0.1% in August. The fall was mainly due to a 8.9% collapse in energy prices, though, and we are very confident the relapse is temporary.

1 June. 2016 ISM Set to Slip Below 50, but Will the Fed Care Enough to Hold Fire? (Publication Centre)

When the Fed raised rates in December, it subverted one of its own long-standing conventions by hiking with the ISM manufacturing index below 50. The December survey, released just 15 days before the meeting, showed the headline index slipping to 48.6, the third straight sub-50 reading. It has since been revised down to 48.0, the lowest reading since June 2009.

1 December 2017 The ISM Manufacturing Index is set to Drop, but the Trend Remains Firm (Publication Centre)

All the regional PMI and Fed business surveys we follow suggest that today's national ISM manufacturing report for November will be weaker than in October

1 August 2018 Is Consumers' Confidence Really at a 21-month High? (Publication Centre)

We're inclined to place little weight on July's E.C. Economic Sentiment Survey, which showed that consumers' confidence has picked up to its highest level since October 2016; see our first chart.

07 October. 2016 Payrolls Likely Unexciting Last Month, But Wages Should Rebound (Publication Centre)

Private sector payroll growth has averaged 190K over the past year, but the six-month average has slowed to 150K. The downshift is consistent with the weakening in survey-based measures of hiring intentions, which began to soften at the turn of the year.

06 October. 2016 ISM Rebound Points to Stronger Payrolls Later in the Fall (Publication Centre)

The huge rebound in September's ISM non- manufacturing survey, reported yesterday, strongly supports our view that the August drop was more noise than signal.

02 Mar. 2016 State and Local Government Construction Set to Boost Q1 GDP (Publication Centre)

Markets reacted strongly to yesterday's consensus-beating data, with the ISM manufacturing survey drawing most of the attention as the industrial recession thesis took another body blow. But we are more interested in the strong construction spending data for January, which set the first quarter off on a very strong note.

Guardian - UK factory output grows at fastest rate since mid-1990s (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey

*November 2019 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

GDP Growth In The Euro Area Has Stabilised....But The Surveys Still Warn That Worse Is To Come

*January 2020 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Clarity Emerging As Hard Data Beat The Surveys...The Fed Has No Reason To Ease Further

25 Feb. 2016 Fundamentals for French Consumers Remain Resilient (Publication Centre)

A downbeat French INSEE consumer sentiment report yesterday continued the run of poor survey data this week. The headline index fell to 95 in February from 97 in January, indicating downside risk f or Q1 consumers' spending. But we remain optimistic that private consumption will rebound solidly, following a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter fall in Q4.

02 Mar. 2016 The Manufacturing PMI Shows that the U.K.'s Slowdown is Homegrown (Publication Centre)

Further compelling signs that the U.K. has lost its status as one of the fastest growing advanced economies were presented by the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey, released yesterday. The PMI fell in February to 50.8--its lowest level since April 2013--from 52.9 in January.

03 Mar. 2016 ISM Non-manufacturing Set to Rebound, Lagging Core Sales (Publication Centre)

The headline ISM non-manufacturing index is not, in our view, a leading indicator of anything much. The survey covers a broad array of non manufacturing activity, including mining, healthcare, and financial services, but most of the time it tends to follow the track of real core retail sales, as our first chart shows.

05 Feb. 2016 Bonds Signal an Imminent EZ Recession, but Don't Take the Bait (Publication Centre)

Strong real M1 growth suggests the cyclical recovery is in good shape. But recent economic data indicate GDP growth slowed in Q4, and survey evidence deteriorated in January. This slightly downbeat message, however, is a far cry from the horror story told by financial markets. The recent collapse in stock-to-bond returns extends the decline which began in Q2 last year, signalling the Eurozone is on the brink of recession.

06 October. 2016 Steady Growth in the Services Sector Undermines Rate Cut Case (Publication Centre)

September's Markit/CIPS services survey added to the evidence indicating that GDP growth softened, rather than fell off a cliff, in the third quarter. The activity index edged down only to 52.6, from 52.9 in August.

04 October. 2016 The August ISM Plunge was a Fluke, After all, What Happens Next? (Publication Centre)

The substantial, though incomplete, rebound in the September ISM manufacturing survey is consistent with our view that the outlook for the industrial economy right now is better than at any time since before the crash in oil prices

04 October. 2016 EZ Manufacturing Continues to Punch Above its Weight (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's survey data tell a story of resilient manufacturing in the Eurozone. The headline EZ PMI rose to 52.6 in September, from 51.7 in August, lifted by a rise in new orders to a three-month high.

04 Mar. 2016 Will the MPC Cut Rates to Counteract the Slowdown? (Publication Centre)

The chances of a cut in official interest rates were boosted yesterday by the sharp fall in the business activity index of the Markit/CIPS report on services in February, to its weakest level since April 2013. Its decline, to just 52.8 from 55.6 in January, mirrored falls in the manufacturing and construction PMIs earlier in the week and pushed the weighted average of the three survey's main balances down to a level consistent with quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of just 0.2% in Q1.

*December 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Mixed Surveys, Mixed Data; Contradictions Abound....No Wonder The Fed Wants To Do Nothing

10 April 2018 Falling Stock Prices Threaten NFIB Headlines, Labor Data Strong (Publication Centre)

It's probably too soon to expect to see a meaningful reaction in the NFIB small business survey to the drop in stock prices, but it likely is coming, and a hit in today's March report can't be ruled out entirely.

13 December. 2016 Today's NFIB Labor Data are not New, but they are Important (Publication Centre)

The falling unemployment rate and the threat it poses to the inflation outlook mean that the labor market numbers in the NFIB small business survey attract more attention than the other data in the report.

13 Jan. 2016 How Fast Can the Fed Allow Wages to Rise? (Publication Centre)

The leading wage indicators in the December NFIB survey, released in full yesterday--some of the labor market components appears a few days in advance, ahead of the official payroll report--all point to a substantial acceleration over the next six-to-nine months. Our first two charts show the NFIB jobs-hard-to-fill number and expected compensation numbers, respectively, compared to the rate of growth of hourly earnings. The message is extremely clear.

12 September 2017 NFIB Labor Indicators Still Very Strong, Despite August Dips (Publication Centre)

The key labor market numbers from the monthly NFIB survey of small businesses are released ahead of the main report, due today.

12 September 2016 Will the MPC Stand By its Rate Cut Guidance this Week? (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee likely will not follow up August's stimulus measures with another rate cut at its meeting on Thursday. The partial revival in surveys of activity and confidence have weakened the case for immediate action.

12 Nov. 2015 NFIB Points to Rising Capex, and Modest Increases in Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

To the extent that markets bother with the NFIB survey at all, most of the attention falls on the labor market numbers. But these data--hiring, compensation, jobs hard-to-fill--haven't changed much in recent months, and in any event most of them are released the week before the main survey, which appeared yesterday. The message from the labor data is unambiguous: Hiring remains very strong, employers are finding it very difficult to fill open positions, and compensation costs are accelerating.

13 June 2017 NFIB Headline Likely to Decay, but Capex and Jobs Readings are Strong (Publication Centre)

Under normal circumstances, we can predict movements in the headline NFIB index from shifts in the key labor market components, which are released a day ahead of the official employment report, and, hence, about 10 days before the full NFIB survey appears.

14 Jan. 2016 A Downbeat Outlook for Q4 GDP Data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

EZ survey data were solid in the fourth quarter, pointing to robust GDP growth, but numbers from the real economy have so far not lived up to the rosy expectations. Data yesterday showed that industrial production fell 0.7% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.1% from a revised 2.0% in October. Italian data today likely will force marginal revisions to the headline next month, but they are unlikely to change the big picture.

15 July. 2016 The Mexican Economy is at the Mercy of Softening Spending (Publication Centre)

Industrial data released this week showed that the Mexican economy stumbled during the second quarter. Private consumption, however, continues to rise, albeit at a more modest pace than in recent months. The ANTAD same store sales survey rose 5.3% year-over-year in June, up from 2.8% in May, but this is misleading.

16 Apr. 2015 Manufacturing constrained by the Oil capex collapse (Publication Centre)

More evidence emerged yesterday of the fading impact of the severe winter on the data, in the form of the strength of the NAHB survey and the weakness of the headline industrial production number.

15 January 2018 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Unresponsive, but Q1 Will be Better (Publication Centre)

Upbeat survey data, a competitive MXN, and the strong U.S. manufacturing sector indicate that Mexican industry should be rebounding.

15 Apr. 2016 Downside Risk to March Output, but Worst is Over - Gains Ahead (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the uptick in the March ISM manufacturing survey, we think today's official production data for the same month are likely to disappoint. Our model of the month-to-month output numbers incorporates the ISM data, but it is substantially driven by manufacturing hours worked, which fell in both February and March.

14 September 2016 Labour Market Report Likely to be Soft all Round (Publication Centre)

Today's figures likely will bring the first real signs that the Brexit vote has had an adverse impact on the labour market. The employment balances of the key private-sector surveys weakened sharply in July, and recovered only partially in August. In addition, the three-month average level of job vacancies fell by 7K between April and July.

12 May. 2015 Small firms in better shape than NFIB suggests - Rebound due (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, small business have taken quite a hit over the past few months. The headline index from the NFIB survey of small businesses has dropped to a nine-month low of 95.2 in March from 100.4 in December. As a result, the gap between the NFIB and the ISM manufacturing indexes, which had been narrowing, has widened again.

12 Apr. Do Leading Indicators Signal Impending Recession? (Publication Centre)

Another day, another downbeat survey. The British Chamber of Commerce's comprehensive and long-running Quarterly Economic Survey was published yesterday, and it added to evidence of a Q1 slowdown.

10 January 2017 The German Economy Fired on All Cylinders in the Fourth Quarter (Publication Centre)

Survey data have been signalling a stronger German economy in the last few months, and hard data are beginning to confirm this story. Data yesterday showed that industrial production rose 0.4% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 2.2%, from an upwardly-revised 1.6% in October. The headline was boosted mainly by a 1.5% month-to-month jump in construction and a 0.9% rise in intermediate goods production.

10 January 2019 Risks to the Consensus for November GDP Lie to the Upside (Publication Centre)

It's hardly surprising that the consensus forecast for month-to-month growth in November GDP, released on Friday, is a mere 0.1%, given the flow of downbeat business surveys.

10 Jan 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector and Foreign Trade will Improve Gradually this Year (Publication Centre)

Survey data have been signalling a resilient Brazilian economy in the last few months, despite the broader challenges facing LatAm and the global economy in 2019.

10 Feb. 2015 Small Firms are Back in Business, But They Can't Find Staff (Publication Centre)

The headline index in today's NFIB small business survey probably won't quite converge with the ISM manufacturing index, but it will come v ery close. To close the gap completely, for the first time since the crash, the NFIB needs to rise to just over 102, from 100.4.

10 August 2017 Core PPI Inflation is Still Trending Upwards, Don't Ignore it (Publication Centre)

The first of this week's two July inflation reports, the PPI, will be released today. With energy prices dipping slightly between the June and July survey dates, the headline should undercut the 0.2% increase we expect for the core by a tenth or so.

10 June. 2015 Tightening Labor market pushing up small firms' pricing plans? (Publication Centre)

The May NFIB survey and the April JOLTS report, both released yesterday, paint a coherent, if not yet definitive, picture of labor market developments which should alarm the Fed. The data suggest that the true labor supply, in the eyes of potential employers, is much smaller than implied by the BLS's measures of broad unemployment.

10 Mar. 2016 Another Month, Another Round of Monetary Easing from the ECB (Publication Centre)

The stakes are raised ahead of today's ECB meeting after the central bank's pledge in January to "review and reassess" its policy stance. Since then, survey data have weakened, inflation has fallen and volatility in financial markets has increased. The ECB likely will act accordingly and deliver a boost to monetary stimulus today.

11 June 2019 What's Happening to Small Firms' Capex and Pricing Plans (Publication Centre)

We already know that the key labor market numbers in today's May NFIB survey are strong.

11 May. 2015 Payrolls were OK, but May Should be Much Better (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the soft-looking ADP employment report released on Wednesday, the true consensus for today's official payroll number likely is lower than the 230K reported in the Bloomberg survey. As we argued in the Monitor yesterday, though, we view ADP as a lagging indicator and we don't use it is as a forecasting tool.

11 April 2017 Why are Small Firms' Capex Plans so Soft even as Sentiment Soars? (Publication Centre)

Nowhere is the gap between sentiment and activity wider than in the NFIB survey of small businesses. The economic expectations component leaped by an astonishing 57 points between October and December, but the capex intentions index rose by only two points over the same period, and it has since slipped back. In February, the capex intentions index stood at 26, compared to an average of 27.3 in the three months to October.

10 March 2017 February Payrolls Look set for Strength, Seasonals Permitting (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a hefty increase in February payrolls today, but even a surprise weak number likely wouldn't prevent a rate hike next week. The trends in all the private sector employment surveys are strong and improving, and jobless claims have dropped to new lows too, though we think that's probably less important than it appears.

10 Mar. 2016 Calendar Distortions Plague the Hours Data, Not Just Wages (Publication Centre)

We've had some correspondence questioning our view on the "weakness" of February hourly earnings, which we firmly believe were depressed by a persistent calendar quirk. Almost nine times in 10 over the past decade, when the 15th of the month has fallen after the week of the 12th--the payroll survey week--the monthly gain in wages has undershot the prior trend.

16 Dec. 2014 - Industrial rebound continues, despite the plunging Empire State (Publication Centre)

You'd have to be very brave to take the weakness of yesterday's Empire State survey more seriously than the strong official industrial report published 45 minutes later. The hard data showed industrial production up 1.3% month-to-month, and only two tenths of that gain was explained by the cold weather, which drove up utility energy output.

8 Dec. 2015 Small Firms Are Struggling to Recruit, and Price are Nudging Up (Publication Centre)

The release of the NFIB survey at 6.00AM eastern time this morning--really, they need a new PR advisor--doubtless will bring a flurry of headlines about rising wage pressures, with the expected compensation index rising by a startling three points to a new post-crash high. But this is not news, nor is the high, stable level of hiring intentions; these key labor market numbers were released last week in the NFIB Jobs Report, which appears the day before the official employment report. The data are simply extracted from the main NFIB survey.

6 Nov. 2015 Payroll Uncertainty (Even) Greater than Usual in October (Publication Centre)

Any model of payrolls based on the usual indicators--jobless claims, ISM hiring, NFIB hiring, and other sundry surveys--right now points to payroll growth at 250K or better. Indeed, the ISM non-manufacturing report on Wednesday is consistent with payroll growth closer to 400K, and the lagged NFIB hiring intentions number points to 300K. Yet the consensus forecast for today's October report is just 182K. Why so timid?

6 November 2018 Should the PMIs' Gloomy Prognosis be Trusted This Time? (Publication Centre)

October's Markit/CIPS services survey added to evidence that the economy has started Q4 on a very weak footing.

6 March 2018 Easing Services Price Pressures Undermine the Rate Hike Case (Publication Centre)

The case for the MPC to hold back from raising interest rates in May remains strong, despite the improvement in the Markit/CIPS services survey in February.

6 March 2017 PMIs Signal Stronger EZ Growth, but Will the Hard Data Follow? (Publication Centre)

Survey data continue to suggest that GDP growth will accelerate in Q1. The final PMI reports on Friday showed that the headline EZ composite index rose to 56.0 in February, from 54.4 in January, in line with the first estimate.

25 July 2019 Grim Manufacturing Data Confirm Investors' Priors in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Broadly speaking, yesterday's headline EZ survey data recounted the same story they've told all year; namely that manufacturing is suffering amid resilience in services.

6 Oct. 2015 Stable GDP Growth in Q3, due to Firmer Consumers' Spending? (Publication Centre)

The PMI survey points to a slight loss of momentum in Eurozone growth towards the end of Q3. The composite index fell to 53.6 in September from 54.3 in August, trivially lower than the initial estimate of 53.9. This is not enough to move the needle on the survey's signal for Q3 GDP growth, though; our first chart shows it pointing to stable growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter.

6 September 2017 August's PMIs Show the Economy is too Brittle to Handle a Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

Our conviction that the economy continues to grow at a snail's pace increased yesterday following the release of August's Markit/CIPS services survey.

7 March 2017 Why has Spending not Faltered After Tax Refunds were Delayed? (Publication Centre)

The delay in the processing of personal income tax refunds this year appears not to have had any adverse impact on retail sales, so far. Indeed, the Redbook chainstore sales survey suggests that sales have accelerated over the past few weeks.

7 Oct. 2015 Are Payrolls Slowing Because There's No-one Left to Hire? (Publication Centre)

In the absence of market-moving data today, we want to take a closer look at the labor market, and, specifically, the idea that payroll growth is slowing because firms cannot find staff they consider suitably qualified for the jobs available. Every indicator of labor demand, with the sole exception of manufacturing-specific surveys, is consistent with very rapid payroll growth, well in excess of 200K per month.

7 July 2017 The Soft and Hard Data Divide Persists in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

The hard numbers in Eurozone manufacturing continue to lag the sharp rise in the main surveys. Data yesterday showed that German factory orders rose 1.0% month-to-month in May, only partially rebounding from a downwardly revised 2.2% plunge in April.

7 Dec. 2015 Mexico's Leading Indicators Point to a Solid Fourth Quarter (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy is not accelerating, but it is holding up well in extremely difficult circumstances for EM. Growth is reasonably healthy, inflation is under control and the labor market is resilient. In short, Mexico is a success story, given the backdrop of plunging oil prices. The contrast with the disaster in Brazil is stark. Last week's survey and hard data continued to tell an upbeat story on Mexico's economy. The IMEF manufacturing index, Mexico's PMI, rose to 52.1 in November up from 51.6 in October, lifted mainly by gains in the employment and deliveries indexes.

7 August 2017 While we were Out... (Publication Centre)

...The Fed did nothing, surprising no-one; the labor market tightened further; the housing market tracked sideways; survey data mostly slipped a bit; and oil prices jumped nearly $4, briefly nudging above $50 for the first time since May.

6 February 2019 Don't Worry About the Tightening of Bank C&I Lending Standards (Publication Centre)

We are not concerned by the very modest tightening in business lending standards reported in the Fed's quarterly survey of senior loan officers, published on Monday.

6 February 2017 Growth Indicators Start to Turn Down as Price Pressures Escalate (Publication Centre)

The run of above-consensus news on the U.K. economy came to an abrupt end last week, as a series of survey indicators for January took a turn for the worse. After six months of breathing space, the economic consequences of the Brexit vote are increasingly being felt.

5 July 2019 Sterling has no Parachute in the Event of a No-deal Brexit (Publication Centre)

Just how low would sterling go in the event of a no-deal Brexit? When Reuters last surveyed economists at the start of June, the consensus was that sterling would settle between $1.15 and $1.20 and fall to parity against the euro within one month after an acrimonious separation on October 31.

5 July. 2016 Can We be Sure The Labor Market is Tight Enough to Boost Wage Gains? (Publication Centre)

We have argued consistently for some time that the next year will bring a clear acceleration in U.S. wage growth, because the unemployment rate has fallen below the Nairu and a host of business survey indicators point to clear upward wage pressures. Nominal wage growth has been constrained, in our view, by the unexpected decline in core inflation from 2012 through early 2015, which boosted real wage growth and, hence, eased the pressure from employees for bigger nominal raises.

5 January 2018 The Plodding Economy Will Enable the MPC to Take its Time (Publication Centre)

December's Markit/CIPS surveys for the manufacturing, construction and services sectors suggest that the economy ended 2017 on a lacklustre note.

5 December 2018 "Tariff Man" Doesn't Understand Tariffs that's Unfortunate (Publication Centre)

The key data originally scheduled for today--ADP employment and the ISM non-manufacturing survey, and the revised Q3 productivity and unit labor costs-- have been pushed to Thursday because the federal government will be closed for the National Day of Mourning for president George H. W. Bush.

5 December 2017 ISM Non-manufacturing Set for Clear Correction. Don't Worry (Publication Centre)

Last week's strong ISM manufacturing survey for November likely will be followed by robust data for the non-manufacturing sector today, but the headline index, like its industrial counterpart, likely will dip a bit.

5 June 2019 Don't Overlook the Construction Sector's Hidden Supports (Publication Centre)

The flow of downbeat business surveys continued yesterday, with the release of the Markit/CIPS construction survey.

5 Oct. 2015 Why are Payroll Gains Slowing When Employers Want to Hire? (Publication Centre)

It is possible that the broad-based softness of September payrolls captures a knee-jerk reaction on the part of employers, choosing to wait-and-see what happens to demand in the wake of stock market correction. But that can't be the explanation for the mere 136K August gain, because the survey was conducted before the market rolled over. Even harder to explain is the hefty downward revision to August payrolls, after years of upward revisions. All is not yet lost for August--the last time the first revision to the month was downwards, -3K in 2010, the second revision was +56K--but we aren't wildly optimistic.

5 September 2017 Services PMI set to Show Economy Still Struggling in Q3 (Publication Centre)

August's Markit/CIPS services survey, released today, likely will show that the economy's biggest sector is continuing to slow. We think that the PMI fell to just 53.0--its lowest level since it plunged immediately after the Brexit vote--from 53.8 in July, below the consensus, 53.5.

6 April 2017 GDP Growth Likely Slowed in Q1, Despite The Rising Services PMI (Publication Centre)

The rise in Markit/CIPS services PMI to 55.0 in March, from 53.3 in February, brings some relief that GDP growth has not stalled in Q1, following manufacturing and construction surveys that signalled near-stagnation.

5 Sept 2019 The PMIs Recession Signal is Misleading, GDP Will Rise in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Recession fears were fanned yesterday by the renewed deterioration of the Markit/CIPS services survey.

5 Sept 2019 Payroll Growth is Still Good Enough, Just, but Slower Gains Ahead (Publication Centre)

Labor demand, as measured by an array of business surveys, clearly slowed from the cycle peak, recorded late last year.

5 October 2017 The PMIs Show Economic Growth Momentum Still Fading (Publication Centre)

The latest PMIs indicate that the economy remained listless in Q3, undermining the case for a rate rise before the end of this year. The business activity index of the Markit/CIPS services survey rose trivially to 53.6 in September, from 53.2 in August.

8 August. 2016 Wage Gains Set to Slide in August, Delaying the Fed Until December (Publication Centre)

We were happy to see the 255K gain in July payrolls, but we remain nervous about the sustainability of such strong numbers. The jump in employment was very large relative to some of the key survey-based indicators of the pace of hiring, even after allowing for the 29K favorable swing in the birth/ death model, compared to a year ago, and the 27K jump in state and local government education jobs, likely due to seasonal adjustment problems

8 January 2018 Brazil's Industrial Sector and Foreign Trade to Remain Resilient in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Survey data have been signalling a relatively resilient Brazilian economy in the last few months, despite intensified political risk, and hard data are beginning to confirm this story.

EZ Datanote: GfK Sentiment in Germany & Consumers' Spending in France (Publication Centre)

In one line: The French consumer looks o.k.; in Germany, surveys now point to slower growth.

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Is Germany in recession? Yes, if you ask the IFO survey.

EZ Datanote: Advance Q4 GDP and January Inflation, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointingly slow GDP growth at the end of 2019, but in line with surveys and hard data.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 7 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's exporters fulfil old orders; new orders have plunged; Caixin survey underlines that smaller firms are still sputtering; An unsurprisingly modest start for "unlimited QE" in Japan; Expect much more trade damage to Korea's current account surplus in April

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korean inflation surprises to the upside in April. Manufacturing surveys in Korea are turning up.

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Looks great, but does it matter for the economic surveys?

Global Datanote: U.S. Employment, December 2019 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Meh. But the trend is *much* better than surveys suggest.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Meh. But the trend is *much* better than surveys suggest.

*December 2018 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Has Christmas been Cancelled in the EZ Economy?...Both Survey and Hard Data Point to Another Soft Quarter in Q4

US Datanote: Durable Goods Orders, October and Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: The jump in capex orders is welcome but impossible to square with surveys; expect a correction.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: No sign of recovery, but other regional surveys are less bad.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovering, albeit more tentatively than other survey indicators.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

China PMI chimes with our GDP downgrade last week. China's non-manufacturing PMI weakest on construction. Japan's MoF capex numbers point to Q4 GDP downgrade. Ignore the consensus-beating headline, Korean exports were abysmal in February, calendar effects aside. The virus now has infected Korea's PMI; expect business surveys to get a lot worse.

9 Sept. 2015 Ignore Swings in Random Labor Force Data: Focus on Job Gains (Publication Centre)

We read after the employment report that the drop in the unemployment rate was somehow not significant, because it was due in p art to a reported 41K drop in the size of the labor force, completing a 404K cumulative contraction over the three months to August. In our view, though, analysts need to take a broader approach to the picture painted by the household survey, which is much more volatile and less reliable than the payroll survey over short periods.

8 May 2018 Small Firms' Sentiment Likely has Weakened Further, but no Disaster (Publication Centre)

We're looking forward to today's April NFIB survey of activity and sentiment in the small business sector with some trepidation.

8 May 2020 The Only Question Today is Just How Big was the Drop in April Payrolls (Publication Centre)

Total job losses between the March and April payroll survey weeks, as captured by the weekly jobless claims numbers, soared to 26.7M.

8 May 2018 Brazil's Q1 Looks Poor - we Expect a Rebound Soon, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Brazil's March industrial production report, released on Thursday last week, was weaker than we and the markets were expecting, while the recent deterioration in sentiment surveys highlights the downside risks to the rather fragile economic recovery.

8 July. 2016 June Payrolls Should be Better than May, but no Return to Trend Yet (Publication Centre)

We have had a modest rethink of our June payroll forecast and have nudged up our number to 150K, still below the 180K consensus. Our forecast has changed because we have re-estimated some of our models, not because of the 172K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls. ADP is a model-based estimate, not a reliable survey indicator.

8 January 2019 Expect to See a Real but Lukewarm Q4 GDP Recovery in Japan (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Nikkei services PMI report completed Japan's set of surveys for the fourth quarter of 2018.

9 Apr. 2015 German Manufacturing sector remains relatively subdued (Publication Centre)

The combination of upbeat survey data and solid consumer spending numbers indicate that the German economy is in good shape. But manufacturing data continue to disappoint; factory orders fell 0.9% month-to-month in February, equivalent to a 1.3% decline year-over-year.

9 April 2018 March Payrolls Don't Signal a Shift in the Trend, Expect 200K-plus in April (Publication Centre)

March payrolls were constrained by both the impact of colder and snowier weather than usual in the survey week, and a correction in the construction and retail components, which were unsustainably strong in February.

9 June. 2015 A flying start to Q2 for German Industrial sector and exports (Publication Centre)

Economic reports released yesterday indicate that the German economy was off to a solid start early in the second quarter. Industrial production rose 0.9% month-to-month in April, equivalent to a 1.4% increase year-over-year, up from a revised tiny 0.2% gain in March. This is the biggest annual jump in production since July last year, but the underlying trend is turning up only slowly, in line with the moderate improvement in survey data this year.

9 Nov 2020 October Payrolls were Good, but Nothing Like Good Enough (Publication Centre)

October payrolls surprised us to the upside, prompting a wave of chatter from the commentariat to the effect that the labor market is healing. Well, it was healing, in the week ended October 17, when the survey was conducted.

9 January 2018 Small Business Owners are Happy, so Why are Capex Plans Soft? (Publication Centre)

We already know that the month-to-month movements in the key labor market components of the December NFIB small business survey were mixed; the data were released last week, ahead the official employment report, as usual.

9 Dec. 2014 - NFIB Says Wage Pressure is Rising: ECI Data Seem to Agree (Publication Centre)

We argued in the Monitor yesterday that the NFIB survey's hiring intentions number is the best guide to the trend in payroll growth a few months ahead. But today's November NFIB report will bring no new information on job growth because the key labor market elements of the survey have already been released.

9 August. 2016 London Will Continue to Bear the Brunt of the Downturn (Publication Centre)

London has been the U.K.'s growth star for the last two decades. Between 1997 and 2014, yearover-year growth in nominal Gross Value Added averaged 5.4% in London, greatly exceeding the 4% rate across the rest of the country. Surveys since the referendum, however, indicate that the capital is at the sharp end of the post-referendum downturn.

5 August. 2016 German Manufacturing Orders Likely Jumped at the End of Q2 (Publication Centre)

The forecasts compiled by Bloomberg for today's June German factory orders data look too timid to us. The consensus is pencilling in a 0.5% month-to month rise, which would push the year-over-year rate down to -2.1%, from zero in May. But survey data point to an increase in year-over-year growth, which would require a large month-to-month rise due to base effects from last year.

6 July. 2015 Labor Market is Still Tightening, Despite June Payroll Miss (Publication Centre)

First, a deep breath: June payrolls, with a margin of error of +/-107K, missed the consensus by 10K. Adding in the -60K revisions and the miss is still statistically insignificant. The story, therefore, is that there is no story. Even relative to our more bullish forecast, the miss was just 37K. Nothing bad happened in June. But we hav e to acknowledge that payroll growth has now undershot the pace implied by the NFIB's hiring intentions number--lagged by five months--in each of the past four months. In June, the survey pointed to a 320K jump in private employment, overshooting the actual print by nearly 100K.

27 May 2020 Global Monitor China ditches in GDP target, now what? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - An increase in testing overstates reopening risks • EUROZONE - Where is the EZ economy right now? • U.K. - GDP is recovering, the poor May surveys notwithstanding • ASIA - China scraps its GDP target, finally • LATAM - The misery continues in Mexico's economy

27 May. 2016 French Consumers are in Good Shape, but Q2 Spending Will Slow (Publication Centre)

We think today's consumer sentiment survey in France will show that the headline index was unchanged at 94 in May. The survey's forward looking components have weakened modestly in recent months, due to declines in households' outlook for their financial situation and standard of living in the coming 12 months.

27 March 2018 Consumers' Spending Constrained by Cashflow, not Confidence (Publication Centre)

Whichever way you choose to slice the numbers, consumers' spending is growing much more slowly than is implied by an array of confidence surveys.

27 March 2017 Eurozone PMI Data are Sizzling, but can they be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance Eurozone PMI reports capped a fine quarter for the survey. The composite PMI jumped to a 80-month high of 56.7 in March, from 56.1 in February, rising to a cyclical high over Q1 as a whole.

27 July. 2015 PMIs Point to Stable GDP Growth, but EM Rout is Hurting Germany (Publication Centre)

The July Eurozone PMI survey echoed the message from consumer sentiment earlier of a mild dip in momentum going into Q3. The composite PMI in the euro area fell to 53.7, from 54.2 in June due mainly to a fall in the services index. Companies' own expectations for future business fell in the core, but the survey was conducted soon after the Greek referendum. Markit claims this didn't depress the data, but we are on alert for revisions to the headline and expectations next week, or a rebound next month.

27 September 2016 The Surging IFO Points to a Resilient German Economy in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey in Germany was a big relief for markets, in light of recent soft data. The main business climate index jumped to 109.5 in September, from 106.3 in August, the biggest month-to-month increase since 2010.

27 September. 2016 Jobs Seen as Plentiful, but Payroll Gains Will Remain Low (Publication Centre)

In contrast to surveys of manufacturing activity and sentiment, the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence rose sharply in August, hitting an 11-month high. People were more upbeat about both the current state of the economy and the outlook, with the improving job market key to their optimism. The proportion of respondent believing that jobs are "plentiful" rose to 26%, the highest level in nine years.

28 March 2017 Could a Rebounding Eurozone Prevent a U.K. Slowdown? (Publication Centre)

Business surveys coming out of the Eurozone have been remarkably strong recently. The composite PMI for the Eurozone jumped to 56.7 in March--its highest level since April 2011--from 56.1 in February. Germany's IFO business climate index leaped to a 67-month high in March.

28 May. 2015 Italy Finally Exits Recession, But Will Remain an Underperformer (Publication Centre)

We will be paying special attention today to the EC sentiment survey for Italy, where the headline index has climbed steadily so far this year. It was unchanged at an eight-year high of 106.1 in April, and even if it fell slightly in May--we expect a dip to 105.0--it still points to an upturn in economic growth.

28 January 2019 The IFO Piles the Pressure on an Already Weak German Economy (Publication Centre)

Judging by the survey data, German business sentiment remained depressed at the start of the year.

28 August. 2015 August Payrolls Will Support Fed Inaction - Unemployment Won't (Publication Centre)

We argued yesterday that the August payroll number is unlikely to be a blockbuster, thanks to a combination of problems with the birth/death model and the strong tendency for this month's jobs number to be initially under-reported and then revised substantially higher. But these arguments don't apply to the unemployment rate, which is derived from the separate household survey.

28 Apr. 2016 Global Risks Gone, but the Fed is Still Relaxed About Inflation Risk (Publication Centre)

The disappearance from the FOMC statement of any reference to global risks, which first appeared back in September, was both surprising and, in the context of this cautious Fed, quite bold. After all, one bad month in global markets or a reversal of the jump in the latest Chinese PMI surveys presumably would force the Fed quickly to reinstate the global get-out clause. So, why drop it now?

26 September 2017 Another Marginal Dip in the IFO, and Murky Politics in Germany (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey in Germany sent a marginally more downbeat message than the strong PMIs last week. The IFO business climate index fell to 115.2 in September, from 115.9 in August, its second straight monthly dip.

26 October. 2016 The German Economy Fired on All Cylinders at the Start of Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey confirmed that the private business sector in Germany was off to a flying start in Q4. The headline business climate index rose to 110.5 in October, from 109.5 in September, lifted mainly by a rise in the expectations index to a 30-month high of 106.5.

25 Nov. 2015 IFO Repeats Message from PMIs: German Economy is in Good Form (Publication Centre)

Survey data in Germany continue to tell an upbeat story on the economy. The IFO business climate index rose to 109.0 in November from 108.2 in October, lifted by gains in both the expectations and current assessment indexes. The IFO tends to be slightly over-optimistic on GDP growth, but our first chart shows that the survey points to upside risks in the fourth quarter.

25 October. 2016 Consumers Confidence is High, but Expect an October Correction (Publication Centre)

Recent consumer confidence numbers have been strong enough that we don't need to see any further increase. The expectations components of both the Michigan and Conference Board surveys are consistent with real spending growth of 21⁄2-to- 3%, which is about the best we can expect when real income growth, after tax, is trending at about 21⁄2%.

25 May 2017 Is it Time to Tell a Less Upbeat Story on the Eurozone Consumer? (Publication Centre)

Markets cheered soaring business surveys in the Eurozone earlier this week, and recent consumer sentiment data also have been cause for celebration. The advance GfK consumer confidence index in Germany rose to a record high of 10.4 in June, from 10.2 in May.

25 Mar. 2015 China's slowdown a threat to U.S. Industry even when ISM revives (Publication Centre)

We have argued over the past couple of years that if you want to know what's likely to happen to U.S. manufacturing over the next few months, you should look at China's PMI, rather than the domestic ISM survey, which is beset by huge seasonal adjustment problems.

25 June. 2015 When Will Small Firms Run Out of Labor Market Insiders to Hire? (Publication Centre)

The high and rising proportion of small businesses reporting difficulty in filling job openings is perhaps the biggest reason to worry that the pace of wage increases could accelerate quickly. If they pick up too far, the Fed's intention to raise rates at a "gradual" pace will be upended. The NFIB survey of small businesses--mostly very small--shows employers are having as much trouble recruiting staff as at the peak of the boom in 2006.

25 Sept. 2015 Economic Sentiment is Holding Up amid Investor Angst (Publication Centre)

The two main national surveys--IFO and INSEE-- both beat consensus forecasts yesterday, supporting our story of that economic sentiment is holding up relatively well in the face increasing investor anxiety. In Germany, the main IFO business climate index rose marginally to 108.5 from a revised 108.4 in August, boosted by an increase in the expectations index to a six-month high of 103.3, up from 102.0 in August. The IFO expectations index points to real GDP growth rising 0.5%-to-0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q3.

25 September 2018 A Solid IFO and Mr. Draghi Send Bund Yields Higher (Publication Centre)

The IFO survey signals that markets shouldn't be too downbeat on the German economy, even as it faces uncertainty from global trade tensions.

26 June 2017 Equity Markets will Worry if EZ PMIs Fall Further in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone PMIs stumbled at the end of Q2. The composite index slipped to a five-month low of 55.7 in June, from 56.8 in May, constrained by a fall in the services index. This offset a marginal rise in the manufacturing index to a new cyclical high. The dip in the headline does not alter the survey's upbeat short- term outlook for the economy.

26 October 2017 The Capex Rebound Promised by the NFIB is Reaching the Hard Data (Publication Centre)

After three straight 1.3% month-to-month increases in core capital goods orders, we are becoming increasingly confident that the upturn in business investment signalled by the NFIB survey is now materializing.

26 Jan. 2016 IFO Points to Slow Start to Q1 for the German Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO report reinforced the message from the PMIs that the Eurozone economy stumbled slightly at the beginning of the first quarter. The headline business climate index fell to an 11-month low of 107.3 in January, from a revised 108.6 in December, hit mainly by a drop in the expectations component. Intensified market volatility and worries over further weakness in the Chinese economy likely were the main drivers. Last week's dovish message from Mr. Draghi, however, came after the survey's cut-off date, leaving us cautiously optimistic for a rebound next month.

26 August. 2015 Solid Net Trade Lifts German GDP in Q2, but Payback Likely in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The IFO did its part to alleviate the stock market gloom yesterday, with the business climate index rising slightly to 108.3 in August from 108.0 in July. The August reading doesn't reflect the panic in equities, though, and we need to wait until next month to gauge the real hit to business sentiment. The increase in the headline index was driven by businesses assessment of current output, with the key expectations index falling trivially to 102.2 from a revised 102.3 in July. This survey currently points to a stable trend in real GDP growth of about 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with our expectation of full year growth of about 1.5%.

26 April 2017 French Business Confidence is Solid, but Manufacturing Fell in Q1 (Publication Centre)

French manufacturing confidence soared at the start of Q2. The headline INSEE index jumped to a six-year high of 108 in April, from an upwardly revised 105 in March. The headline was flattered by a big increase in the "past activity" index, but the survey's leading indicators also improved.French manufacturing confidence soared at the start of Q2. The headline INSEE index jumped to a six-year high of 108 in April, from an upwardly revised 105 in March. The headline was flattered by a big increase in the "past activity" index, but the survey's leading indicators also improved.

29 November. 2016 Colombia's Economy Slowed Sharply in Q3, Better News Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Friday's Q3 GDP report for Colombia confirmed the message from hard data and surveys, showing that the economy slowed sharply. Real GDP growth dropped to 1.2% year-over-year, its slowest pace since early 2009, from 2.0% in Q2.

26 Oct. 2015 PMIs Point to Firm GDP Growth Ahead in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Friday's PMIs gave the first hint of Q4 growth in the Eurozone, and continue to tell a story of a stable cyclical recovery. The composite PMI in the Eurozone rose 54.0 in October from 53.6 in September, mainly due to a rise in the services index, to 54.2 from 53.7. Assuming the PMI remains unchanged over the remainder of the quarter, the survey indicates solid GDP growth of 0.4%-to-0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4.

4 December 2017 No End in Sight to Upturn in EZ Manufacturing PMI? (Publication Centre)

The upside to manufacturing survey data in the Eurozone appears endless.

4 February 2019 Unboxing--and Making Sense--of the Collapse in China's Caixin PMI (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI for January was grim, indicating that China's start to the year wasn't as benign as the official surveys suggested.

4 Dec. 2015 November Labor Data Will Support Yellen's Case for Hiking (Publication Centre)

We're expecting to see November payrolls up by about 200K this morning, but our forecast takes into account the likelihood that the initial reading will be revised up. In the five years through 2014, the first estimate of November payrolls was revised up by an average of 73K by the time o f the third estimate. Our forecast for today, therefore, is consistent with our view that the underlying trend in payrolls is 250K-plus. That's the message of the very low level of jobless claims, and the strength of all surveys of hiring, with the exception of the depressed ISM manufacturing employment index. Manufacturing accounts for only 9% of payrolls, though, so this just doesn't matter.

4 Dec. 2015 How Reliable is the Composite PMI as an Indicator of GDP Growth? (Publication Centre)

A further rise in the business activity index of the November Markit/CIPS report on services offset declines in the manufacturing and construction surveys' key balances. The composite PMI--a weighted average of three survey's activity indices -- therefore rose, to a level consistent with quarter-on-quarter GDP growth strengthening to 0.6% in the fourth quarter, from 0.5% in Q3. Nonetheless, we do not think this is a convincing signal that the economic recovery is regaining strength.

4 Apr. 2016 While We Were Out... (Publication Centre)

The March employment report didn't tell us what we really want to know. The underlying trend in wage growth remains obscured by the calendar quirk which depresses reported hourly earnings when the 15th of the month--pay day for people paid semi-monthly -- falls after the payroll survey week.

4 January 2017 December's ISM looks great, but it's not definitive (Publication Centre)

It probably would be wise to view the increase in the ISM manufacturing index in December with a degree of skepticism. The index is supposed to record only hard activity, but we can't help but wonder if some of the euphoria evident in surveys of consumers' sentiment has leaked into responses to the ISM. That said, the jump in the key new orders index-- which tends to lead the other components--looked to be overdue, relative to the strength of the import component of China's PMI.

29 November. 2016 Real M1 Growth Tells a Downbeat Story on the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

In recent Monitors, we have highlighted the upturn in Q4 survey data pointing to a strong end of the year for the EZ economy. This story has not changed, but yesterday's money supply data tell a story of downside risks.

4 September 2018 EZ Manufacturing PMIs are Soft, but Base Effects will Lift Q3 data (Publication Centre)

Survey data in EZ manufacturing remain soft. Yesterday's final PMI report for August confirmed that the index dipped to 54.6 in August, from 55.1 in July, reaching its lowest point since the end of 2016.

4 September 2018 Is Fear of Further Tariffs Boosting Capex and Inventory-Building? (Publication Centre)

While we were out, most of the core domestic economic data were quite strong, with the exception of the soft July home sales numbers and the Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

4 September 2017 Manufacturing Will Continue to Lift EZ GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone manufacturing boosted GDP growth in the first half of the year, and survey data suggest that momentum will be maintained in Q3.

4 Nov. 2015 ADP Tells Us Payrolls Mean- Revert, but That's Not News (Publication Centre)

The underlying trend in payroll growth ought to be running at 250K-plus, based on an array of indicators of the pace of both hiring and firing. The past few months' numbers have fallen far short of this pace, though, for reasons which are not yet clear. We are inclined to blame a shortage of suitably qualified staff, not least because that appears to be the message from the NFIB survey, which shows that the proportion of small businesses with unfilled positions is now close to the highs seen in previous cycles. If we're right, payroll growth won't return to the 254K average recorded in 2014 until the next cyclical upturn, but quite what to expect instead is anyone's guess.

4 June 2019 The Q2 Fall in Manufacturing Output Won't Alter the MPC's Course (Publication Centre)

The downbeat tone of Markit's May manufacturing survey shouldn't come as a surprise, given the weak global backdrop and the inevitable fading of the boost to output from Brexit preparations.

4 Apr. 2016 ECB QE is Failing to Lift Equities, but Bond Yields are Being Crushed (Publication Centre)

Today's Sentix survey of Eurozone investor sentiment likely will remain downbeat. We think the headline index rose only trivially, to 6.0 in April from 5.5 in March, and that the expectations index was unchanged at 2.8. Weakness in equities due to global growth fears and negative earnings revisions likely is the key driver of below-par investor sentiment.

4 July 2017 Mr Abe Trounced in Tokyo Elections just as Recovery Gains Traction (Publication Centre)

The Tankan survey powered ahead in Q2, pulling away from Q1 and mostly beating consensus. This confirms our impression of the strength of the recovery ,just as Prime Minister Abe's Liberal Democratic Party is trounced at the polls in Tokyo. The drubbing is understandable as the main benefits of Abenomics have gone to the business sector, at the expense of the household sector.

3 Nov. 2015 Manufacturing Unlikely to be Past the Worst (Publication Centre)

The sharp and unexpected improvement in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey in October released on Monday raised hopes that the recession in the industrial sector might be over. A cool look at the evidence, however, suggests that this probably is just wishful thinking.

3 Dec. 2014 - ADP Likely to Overstate November Payrolls, Thanks to Early Snows (Publication Centre)

Since its October 2012 revamp, the ADP measure of private employment--the November survey will be released this morning--has tended to be little more than a lagging indicator of the official number.That's because ADP incorporates official data, lagged by one month, into the regression which generates its employment measure.

3 November 2017 The EZ Manufacturing Sector is in No Mood for a Slowdown (Publication Centre)

Survey data signal that Eurozone manufacturing retained momentum at the start of Q4. Yesterday's final PMI reports showed that the EZ manufacturing index rose to 58.5 in October from 58.1 in September, trivially below the first estimate.

31 May 2018 Recovering Consumer Confidence Won't Lift Spending, Much (Publication Centre)

The widespread view, which we share, that GDP will rebound in Q2 following the disruption caused by bad weather in Q1, was supported yesterday by the E.C.'s Economic Sentiment survey.

3 October 2018 September ADP Employment Likely Subdued, thanks to Florence (Publication Centre)

We're fully expecting to see a hit to September payrolls from Hurricane Florence, which struck during the employment survey week.

30 Apr. 2015 Real M1 Growth Points to Strengthening Cyclical Recovery (Publication Centre)

Survey and money supply data remain consistent with an improving Eurozone economy. Yesterday's EC sentiment index fell to 103.7 in April, from 103.9 in March, due to weakness in France and Germany, but it is consistent with GDP growth of about 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2.

30 March 2017 How will French Consumers React to Lower Real Wage Growth? (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators for consumers' spending in France are sending conflicting signals. Survey data suggest that households are in a spendthrift mood. Data yesterday showed that the headline consumer sentiment index was unchanged in March at 100, the cycle high.

3 Sept. 2015 Trade Deficit Likely Dropped in July, but Q3 Picture Still Unclear (Publication Centre)

The July trade deficit likely fell significantly further than the consensus forecast for a dip to $42.2B from $43.8B in June, despite the sharp drop in the ISM manufacturing export orders index. Our optimism is not just wishful thinking on our p art; our forecast is based on the BEA's new advance trade report. These data passed unnoticed in the markets and the media. The July report, released August 28, wasn't even listed on Bloomberg's U.S. calendar, which does manage to find space for such useless indicators as the Challenger job cut survey and Kansas City Fed manufacturing index. Baffling.

31 March 2017 February Consumption Will Look Grim (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the February consumer spending data, due today, will contradict the upbeat signal from confidence surveys. The dramatic upturn in sentiment since the election is consistent with a rapid surge in real consumption, but we're expecting to see unchanged real spending in February, following a startling 0.3% decline in January.

31 January 2017 Focus on Strong EZ Q4 GDP Data On a Busy Day in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Today will be an incredibly busy day for EZ investors with no fewer than eight major economic reports. Overall, we think the data will tell a story of a stable business cycle upturn and rising inflation. Markets will focus on advance Q4 GDP data in France and in the euro area as a whole. Our mo dels, and survey data, indicate that the EZ economy strengthened at the end of 2016, and we expect the headline data to beat the consensus.

30th September 2020 Global Monitor Spot the incentive to fire workers in the U.K. (Publication Centre)

• U.S.- 36 Days to go, who will win, and what will they do • EUROZONE - The PMIs point to a stalling recovery, but other surveys beg to differ • U.K.- The new job-retention scheme won't prevent a sharp rise in unemployment • ASIA - Controversial agricultural reforms in India deserve a shot • LATAM - More rate cuts on the way from Banxico

30 October 2019 Global Monitor China's economy hit the rafters in Q3 (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Is capex falling as hard as the surveys are implying? • EUROZONE - The end of an era at the ECB; now attention turns to Ms. Lagarde • U.K. - An absolute majority for the Conservatives is not certain • ASIA - Chinese Q3 GDP data were worse than implied by the headlines • LATAM - Mexico hit a brick wall in Q3, but Q4 should be a bit better

30 June. 2015 Slowing Aircraft Orders Holding Back Chicago PMI - No Hit to ISM (Publication Centre)

The seasonal adjustment problems which tend to drive up the national ISM manufacturing survey in late spring and summer are more or less absent from the Chicago PMI, which will be released today. As far as we can tell, the biggest short-term influence on the Chicago number is variations in the order flow for Boeing aircraft; the company moved its headquarters to the city from Seattle in 2001.

FINANCIAL TIMES - British shoppers delay spending ahead of Black Friday (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. CBI survey, November

5 July 2018 ADP Likely to Report Another Solid Gain in Payrolls (Publication Centre)

Payroll growth rebounded to 223K in May, after two sub-200K readings, and we're expecting today's June ADP report to signal that labor demand remains strong.

Reuters - UK business malaise deepened before election - PMI (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

Question of the Week, WC 6th Jan 2020 (Media Centre)

Will EZ services hold their own amid weakness in manufacturing?

Reuters - British economy on track for biggest contraction 'in living memory' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

REUTERS - U.S. factory activity growing at weakest pace since 2016 (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Manufacturing Activity

The Hill - Manufacturing is back, but don't thank Trump (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson with a guest column in The Hill on U.S. Manufacturing

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Ian Shepherdson wins US Forecasters award, 2014 (Media Centre)

The Wall Street Journal is pleased to annouce that Ian Shepherdson, of Pantheon Macroeconomics, has won the US Forecaster of 2014 award.

WALL STREET JOURNAL - ISM Services Report Alleviates Market's Economic Anxiety (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing data release

THE TELEGRAPH - Eurozone economy 'sizzles' as ECB readies monetary bazooka (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the Eurozone recovery

Reuters - UK retailers suffer worst September on record, BRC says (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales

THE GUARDIAN - British service sector back in growth, according to latest data (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Services sector

REUTERS - UK manufacturing outlook darkens, retail sales slip (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. Manufacturing

Question of the Week, WC 12th October 2020 (Media Centre)

What are Near-Real-Time data Telling us about the State of the U.K. Economy's Recovery?

City A.M. - UK economy set to return to growth in third quarter after coronavirus chaos (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K PMI

FINANCIAL TIMES - UK house price falls - how much is down to Brexit? (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

Bloomberg - ECB About to Turn Up Printing Press to Finance Europe's Recovery (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the latest action from the ECB

BBC NEWS - UK 'at risk of slipping into recession' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest PMI data

BBC - Manufacturing shrinks as Brexit stockpiling halts (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

BBC News - Coronavirus: UK economy 'set for deepest downturn in memory' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

Financial Times - Uptick in French business confidence dulled by manufacturing (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on French Business Confidence

INDEPENDENT - The chart that shows the UK economic recovery is "on its knees" (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. PMI data, April

Question of the Week, WC 28th September 2020 (Media Centre)

Do India's recent reform efforts hit the spot? 

Question of the Week, WC 11th June (Media Centre)

Are there any signs that the U.S. tax cuts and/or regulatory relaxation are stimulating increased non-residential fixed investment?

Question of the Week, WC 2nd November 2020 (Media Centre)

Is the services-lockdown hit to Q4 GDP growth in the EZ priced in? 

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