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17 May. 2016 The EZ Trade Surplus is Stalling, but Net Exports will Lift Q2 GDP (Publication Centre)

Data today likely will show that the seasonally adjusted trade surplus in the Eurozone jumped to €23.0B in March, from €20.2B in February. The headline was boosted, though, by sharp month-to-month falls in German and French imports, partly due to the early Easter.

22 January 2018 Is the EZ's Current Account Surplus Pulling the Euro Up? (Publication Centre)

The data tell an increasingly convincing story that the Eurozone's external surplus rose further in the second half of last year.

17 October 2017 The rebound in EZ trade surplus is ruse (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report showed that the Eurozone's external surplus recovered ground over the summer, but we don't think the rebound will last long.

17 October 2018 The Eurozone's Trade Surplus is Headed Down a Notch this Year (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's trade surplus rebounded slightly over the summer, rising to €16.6B in August from €12.6B in July, helped mainly by a 2.0% month-to- month jump in exports.

18 August 2017 Japan's Trade Surplus Bounced. Exports to U.S. Strengthen (Publication Centre)

Japan's July adjusted trade surplus rebounded to ¥337.4B from ¥87.3B in June, far above consensus. On our seasonal adjustment, the rebound is slightly smaller but only because we saw less of a drop in June.

22 May 2018 Sino-U.S. Negotiations Present a Risk to Japan's Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade surplus rebounded to ¥522B in April, on our adjustment, from ¥390B in March, around the same level as the official version, though from a higher base.

22 October 2018 The EZ External Surplus is Being Boosted by Services Exports (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus rebounded over the summer, reversing its sharp decline at the start of Q3.

16 January 2018 The Eurozone's Trade Surplus Will Fall in the First Half of 2018 (Publication Centre)

The euro area's external surplus remained resilient toward the end of 2017, in the face of a stronger currency. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose to €22.5B in November, from €19.0B in October, lifted primarily by a jump in German exports.

23 October 2017 The EZ's Current Account Surplus Rose in Q3, but the Trend is Falling (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus rebounded further over the summer.

16 November 2017 The Eurozone's Trade Surplus Won't Stay so High for Long (Publication Centre)

We are sticking to our view that the Eurozone's trade surplus will fall in the next six months, despite yesterday's upbeat report. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus leapt to a record high of €25.0B in September from revised €21.0B in August, lifted by an increase in exports and a decline in imports.

23 July 2018 The Eurozone's Current Account Surplus likely Plunged in Q2 (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's current account surplus extended its decline in May, falling to a nine-month low of €22.4B, from €29.6B in April.

23 August 2017 Fiscal Restraint, not a Surging Economy, Drove July's Surplus (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's public finance figures showed that the public sector, excluding public sector banks, ran a surplus of £0.2B in July, a modest improvement on borrowing of £0.4B a year ago.

18 December 2017 The Large Decline in the EZ Trade Surplus is a Sign of More to Come (Publication Centre)

The euro area's external surplus dipped at the start of Q4.

22 Apr. Progress Towards a Budget Surplus Will Remain Slow (Publication Centre)

The trend in public borrowing has improved significantly over recent months, but it is far too soon to conclude that the Chancellor is on track to meet his goal of running a budget surplus by the end of this decade. The recent economic slowdown has not impacted the public borrowing numbers, yet.

20 February 2019 China's Current Account Surplus is Stabilising, but at a Very Low Level (Publication Centre)

China's current account surplus grew further in the final quarter of 2018, more than doubling to $54.6B, from $23.3B in Q3.

21 November 2017 Near-term Risks are to the Downside for Japan's Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Japan's official adjusted surplus rose in October but we think the September figure was an understatement. On our adjustment, the surplus was little unchanged at ¥360B in October.

21 January 2019 The EZ's Current Account Surplus is now Well Below 3% of GDP (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's current account surplus almost surely fell further in Q4.

21 February 2017 Fiscal Policy Won't Be Eased, Even If January's Surplus is Huge (Publication Centre)

January's public finance data, released today, take on particular importance because they are the last to be published before the Chancellor delivers his first Budget on March 8. The public finances nearly always swing into surplus in January, primarily because the deadline for individuals to submit self-assessment--SA--tax returns for the previous fiscal year is at the end of the month. Firms also pay their third of four payments of corporation tax for their profits in the current fiscal year.

20 September 2016 The Recycling of the EZ's Current Account Surplus Continues (Publication Centre)

The external surplus in the EZ economy slipped in July. The seasonally-adjusted current account surplus dropped to €21.0B, from a revised €29.5B in June, hit by an increase in the current transfers deficit, and a falling trade surplus. The recent increase in the transfers deficit partly is due to the migrant deal with Turkey, and we expect it to remain elevated.

20 April 2018 The EZ current account surplus is rising (Publication Centre)

The EZ's current account surplus is solid as ever, despite falling slightly in February to €35.1B, from an upwardly-revised €39.0B in January.

20 Apr. 2015 Eurozone's CA Surplus is Being Recycled to Fund Carry Trades (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's current account surplus remains in a firm uptrend, and should continue to rise this year, despite a small dip in the February surplus to €26.4B from a revised €30.4B in January.

18 September 2017 Will Markets Care About a Falling Trade Surplus in the Eurozone? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus weakened at the start of Q3.

18 July 2017 The Conundrum of Germany's Huge Current Account Surplus (Publication Centre)

No subject in the EZ economy is a source of more dispute than Germany's ballooning current account surplus. The Economist recently identified he German surplus as a problem for the world economy.

19 December 2017 The Rise in Oil Prices will Damage Japan's Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade surplus is set to fall in coming months, as domestic demand remains robust, while recent oil price increases will be a drag, lifting imports.

19 Feb. 2015 QE and the booming external surplus create conditions for EUR carry trades (Publication Centre)

Data later today will likely show that the Eurozone's external balance remained firm last quarter at a record 2.5% of GDP. We think the seasonally adjusted current account surplus rose to €20.0B in December from €18.1B in November, with positive momentum in the key components continuing.

21 Oct. 2015 Eurozone Now Runs a Bigger Current Account Surplus Than Japan and China (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus remains solid, despite hitting a wall in August. The seasonally adjusted current account surplus fell to €17.7B in August from €25.6B in July, due to a €7B fall in the goods component. A 5.2% month-to-month collapse in German exports -- the biggest fall since 2009 -- was the key driver, but we expect a rebound next month. The 12-month trend in the Eurozone's external surplus continues to edge higher, rising to 3% of GDP up from 2.1% in August last year.

3 February 2017 The U.S. Puts Germany's Huge Trade Surplus Under the Spotlight (Publication Centre)

In our Monitor on January 27 we speculated that the new U.S. administration would see Germany's booming trade surplus as a bone of contention. We were right. Earlier this week, Peter Navarro, the head of Mr. Trump's new National Trade Council, fired a broadside against Germany, accusing Berlin for using the weak euro to gain an unfair trade advantage visa-vis the U.S.

23 March 2017 The Eurozone's Primary Income Surplus is Climbing Steadily (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's total external surplus hit the skids at the start of the year. Yesterday's report showed that the seasonally adjusted current account surplus plunged to a two-year low of €24.1B in January, from a revised €30.8B in December.

11 October 2017 Japan's Current Account Surplus to Remain Stable in 2018 (Publication Centre)

Japan's official seasonally adjusted current account surplus rose to ¥2.27T in August from ¥2.03T in July. But we don't trust the seasonals, and our adjustment model shows the surplus fell slightly, to ¥1.91T in August. A further small decline likely is coming in Q4.

9 Oct 2019 Japan's Current Account Surplus will Begin Rebuilding in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Japan's current account surplus has been broadly stable in absolute terms in the last couple of years, though it has retreated as a share of GDP.

4 Oct 2019 China Needs a Bigger Current Account Surplus Again (Publication Centre)

China's current account surplus was revised down last week to $46.2B in Q2, from $57.0B in the preliminary data, marking a dip from $49.0B in Q1.

11 June 2019 A Sino-U.S. Deal would Curb China's Trade Surplus...But Only Temporarily (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus bounced back strongly in May, rising to $40.1B on our adjustment, from $35.7B previously.

11 December 2018 China's Trade Surplus is Set to Rebuild Next Year (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus appears modestly to be rebuilding, edging up to $34.0B in November, on our adjustment, from $33.3B in October. The recent trough was $24.B, in March.

11 July 2017 Strong Import Growth is Starting to Weigh on German Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

The German trade surplus increased slightly in May, following weakness in the beginning of spring. The seasonally adjusted surplus rose to €20.3B in May, from €19.7B in April; it was lifted by a 1.4% month-to-month jump in exports, which offset a 1.2% rise imports.

11 September 2017 The German Trade Surplus is Falling, but Real Wages are Rising (Publication Centre)

The seasonally adjusted trade surplus in Germany slipped to €19.6B in July, from €21.2B in June, its lowest since April, and we are confident that it has peaked for this cycle.

11 Mar. 2016 Don't Hold Your Breath for a Budget Surplus (Publication Centre)

Chancellor George Osborne has invested considerable personal capital in attaining a budget surplus by the end of this parliament, and he has passed a 'law' to ensure he and his successors achieve this goal. But the current fiscal plans, which will be reviewed in the Budget on March 16, make a series of optimistic assumptions on future tax revenues and spending savings.

9 February 2018 China's Trade Surplus Knocked by Calendar Effects, RMB Takes a Cue (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus tumbled to $20.3B in January, from $54.7B in December, surprising the consensus for little change.

13 March 2017 A Slowdown in the U.K. Will Dent the German Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Germany's external surplus remained resilient at the start of the year. Data on Friday showed that the seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose marginally to €18.5B in January, from a revised €18.3B in December.

14 January 2019 Japan's Current Account Surplus Won't Keep Falling Korea's Will (Publication Centre)

Japan's unadjusted current account surplus fell sharply in November, to ¥757B, from ¥1,310B in October.

10 October. 2016 EURGBP close to parity will sting EZ trade surplus (Publication Centre)

The euro has been one of the main "beneficiaries" of the pound's relentless decline, which took on ridiculous dimensions as the GBP crashed almost 10% in the early hours of Friday. EURGBP briefly touched 0.94, before settling at 0.9, up just shy of 30% since November.

19 June. 2015 The Eurozone's External Surplus will be the World's Biggest, Soon (Publication Centre)

Solid trade data for April indicate a strong start to Q2 for the Eurozone's external balance, though a €3.2B fall in German net factor income will weigh on the primary income number.

11 September 2018 The Trade Wars are Neutral in China's Trade Surplus, so far (Publication Centre)

At the time of writing, Mr. Trump reportedly is finalising plans to impose tariffs of up to 25% on a further $200B of imports from China.

20 February 2019 The EZ's Current Account Surplus Should Increase, a Bit, in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external accounts were extremely volatile at the end of Q4.

27 January 2017 Will Mr. Trump Single out Germany for its Large Trade Surplus? (Publication Centre)

The uncertainty over the new U.S. administration's economic policies new is clouding the outlook for the Eurozone economy. The combination of loose fiscal policy and tight monetary policy in the U.S. should be positive for the euro area economy, in theory. It points to accelerating U.S. growth--at least in the near term--wider interest rate differentials and a stronger dollar. In a " traditional" global macroeconomic model, this policy mix would lead to a wider U.S. trade deficit, boosting Eurozone exports.

20 March 2018 Up or down for the EZ current account surplus in 2018? (Publication Centre)

The euro area's trade advantage with the rest of the world slipped at the start of the year.

21 November. 2016 Is Germany Exploiting the Rest of the EZ? (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that the EZ current account surplus fell to €25.3B in September, from a revised €29.2B in August. The trade and services surpluses were unchanged, but the income balance slipped after rising in the previous months.

5 July 2017 Cyclical Improvement in Brazil's Trade Balance is Nearly Over (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external position continue to improve, but we are sticking to our view that further significant gains are unlikely in the second half, given the stronger BRL. For now, though, we still see some momentum, with the unadjusted trade surplus increasing to USD7.2B in June, up from USD4.0B a year earlier. Exports surged 24% year-over-year but imports rose only 3%.

21 March 2018 Fiscal stimulus in the EZ won't cure global imbalances (Publication Centre)

Global current account imbalances are back on the agenda. In the U.S., economic policies threaten to blow out the twin deficit, while external surpluses in the euro area and Asia are rising.

21 July. 2015 The Eurozone is Adding to Global Current Account Imbalances (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's current account surplus plunged to €18.0B in May from €24.0B, the biggest monthly fall since July 2013, but an upward revision to the April data makes the headline look worse than it is. These numbers are volatile, even after seasonal adjustments, and revisions have been larger than normal this year, so we need to smooth the data to get the true story.

21 Oct 2019 Are Portfolio Flows Turning in Favour of Eurozone Equities (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus recovered a bit of ground mid-way through the third quarter.

21 May 2019 EZ Capital Outflows Should Pick Up in Q2, Mainly in Debt Markets (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus fell further at the end of Q1, and has now fully reversed the jump at the start of the year.

ASIAN DATAWRAP 8 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus falls unexpectedly in April, thanks partly to a bump in imports. Japan's services PMI falls despite holiday boost. The BoJ remains in a holding pattern. Korea's current account surplus rose in March, but its overall downtrend remains intact.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade surplus deterioration not as bad as official stats suggest, but more to come

9 May 2018 Chinese Import Growth is Flattered by Price Effects (Publication Centre)

China's trade data looked more normal in April. The trade balance rebounded to a surplus of $28.8B in April, from a deficit of $5.0B in March. Exports also bounced back, rising 12.9% year-over-year in April, after a 2.7% decline in March.

9 February 2018 Hard Data Point to a Slowdown in Q4 German GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

In contrast to the strong December trade numbers in France--see here--yesterday's German data were soft. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus dipped to €21.5B in December, from €22.3B in November.

9 May 2019 China's Imports are U-Turning, but Exports Still Face Major Headwinds (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus collapsed unexpectedly in April, to $13.8B, from a trivially-revised $32.4B in March.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korea's current account surplus rebounded on a smaller services deficit in July

7 November 2018 China's Q3 BoP Data Confirm Trade War-Related Capital Flight (Publication Centre)

China's unadjusted current account surplus widened to $16.0B in the preliminary report for Q3, from $5.3B in Q2.

22 November 2017 What's the Case for Increased Fiscal Stimulus in the Eurozone? (Publication Centre)

The euro area's record-high external surplus has prompted commentators to suggest that the zone has room to loosen fiscal policy to support growth, or at least relax the deficit reduction rules.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's see-sawing trade surplus is likely to continue in the short run, but it mostly has peaked. Japan's unadjusted current account surplus slipped to ¥1,211B in June, from ¥1,595B in May, marginally surpassing the consensus, ¥1,149B.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage growth bounces back on volatile bonuses; distortions still at play? Korea's current account surplus has bottomed out, but pressure on the won will continue to rise in the S/T.

20 Sept 2019 EZ Portfolio Outflows will get a New Lease of Life from the ECB (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus rebounded slightly at the start of Q3.

22 February 2019 Scope for Further Fiscal Stimulus Remains Intact (Publication Centre)

After a disappointing run of monthly data, the huge surplus on the main "PSNB ex ." measure of borrowing in January must have been greeted with relief at the Treasury.

21 May 2018 China's $200B Offer is Long-run Unviable, Short-run Problematic (Publication Centre)

China reportedly has offered President Trump a $200B reduction in its annual trade surplus with the U.S., engineered by increasing imports of American products, among other steps.

14 December 2018 Japan's Trade Deficit will soon Diminish, but not in November (Publication Centre)

Data released earlier this week show that Japan's current account surplus continued its downtrend in October, falling to ¥1,404B, on our seasonal adjustment, from ¥1,494B in September.

20 November 2018 The Eurozone Economy's Global Liquidity Pump is Sputtering (Publication Centre)

The EZ's current account surplus was stung at the end of Q3, falling to a three-year low of €16.9B in September, from a revised €23.9B in August.

14 May 2018 Germany's Problem is Increasingly Clear: It has too Much Money (Publication Centre)

Germany's newly-appointed finance minister, Olaf Scholz, proudly announced earlier this month that his country would be running a budget surplus of €63B over the next four years--about 1.9% of GDP between now and 2022--some €14B more than initially estimated.

15 October 2018 Chinese Trade: Import from Anywhere but the U.S. (Publication Centre)

China's September trade numbers show that, far from reducing the surplus with the U.S., the trade wars so far have pushed it up to a new record.

17 August 2018 Net Exports in the EZ Probably Will be a Drag on Growth in 2018 (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's trade surplus remained subdued at the end of the second quarter; it dipped to €16.7B in June from €16.9B in May.

16 October 2017 China's Import Rebound Overstates Domestic Demand Strength (Publication Centre)

The Chinese trade surplus was reasonably stable on our seasonal adjustment in September, falling to $27.5B from $29.7B in August.

11 October. 2016 German Exports Came Roaring Back in August, After a Weak July (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German trade data showed that the external surplus recovered in August, following its poor start to Q3. The seasonally-adjusted trade surplus rose to €22.2B, from €19.4B in July.

11 October 2017 Hard Data Suggest German GDP Growth Slowed Slightly in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Germany's nominal external surplus rebounded smartly over the summer, but real net trade looks set to be a drag on Q3 GDP growth, again. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus increased to €21.6B in August from a revised €19.3B in July.

11 December 2018 Probably No Help From Net Exports for German GDP in Q4 (Publication Centre)

German net exports were treading water at the start of the fourth quarter. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus slipped to €17.4B in October, from a revised €17.7B in September, constrained by a 1.3% month-to-month rise in imports, which offset a 0.7% increase in exports.

10 February 2017 Dip in German Exports Won't Ruin the Rebound in Q4 as a Whole (Publication Centre)

German exporters stumbled at the end of last year. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus in Germany dipped to €18.4B in December, from €21.8B in November, hit by a 3.3% month-to-month plunge in exports. Imports were flat on the month. The fall in exports looks dramatic, but it followed a 3.9% jump in the previous month, and nominal exports were up 2.5% over Q4 as a whole. Advance GDP data next week likely will show that net trade lifted quarter-on-quarter growth by 0.2 percentage points, partly reversing the 0.3pp drag in Q3. Real imports were held back by a jump in the import price deflator, due to rebounding oil prices.

11 February 2019 Net Exports Probably Boosted German GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

German exports flatlined for most of 2018, driving the trade surplus down by 7.3% amid still-solid growth in imports.

11 July. 2016 Net Exports Boosted German GDP Growth in Q2, as Imports Fell (Publication Centre)

The German trade data on Friday completed a poor week for economic reports in the Eurozone's largest economy. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus fell to €22.1B in May, from €24.1B in April, mainly due to a 1.8% month-to-month fall in exports. Imports, on the other hand, were little changed.

11 Nov 2019 German Net Exports fell in Q3, but less than in Q2, No recession then (Publication Centre)

Friday's data force us to walk back our recession call for Germany. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose in September, to €19.2B from €18.7B in August, lifted by a 1.5% month-to-month jump in exports, and the previous months' numbers were revised up significantly.

11 March 2019 Chinese Authorities are Right to be Increasingly Worried about Exports (Publication Centre)

China's unadjusted trade surplus collapsed in February, to just $4.1B, from $39.2B in January.

17 January 2017 Will Brexit and Mr. Trump Dent EZ Exports to the U.S. and the U.K? (Publication Centre)

Net exports in the euro area likely rebounded in Q4. The headline EZ trade surplus rose to €22.7B in November from €19.7B in October. Exports jumped 3.3% month-to-month, primarily as a result of strong data in Germany and France, offsetting a 1.8% rise in imports. Over Q4 as a whole, we are confident that net exports gave a slight boost to eurozone GDP growth, adding 0.1 percentage points to quarter-on-quarter growth.

12 September. 2016 More Poor Data Signal Slow Start to Q3 (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data added to the evidence that the German economy stumbled in July. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus slipped to €19.4B, from a revised €21.4B in June.

20 February 2018 Everyone is Talking About Current Accounts Again (Publication Centre)

The euro area's current account surplus stumbled at the end of 2017, falling to €29.9B in December from an upwardly-revised €35.0B in November.

20 July 2018 Japan's Trade Balance Continues to Whipsaw Where is it Going Next (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade surplus has whipsawed recently. Sharp changes are to be expected in January and February, due to the shifting timing of Chinese New Year.

19 March 2019 The Real Story About Recent Volatility in EZ Net Exports (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report showed that the EZ trade surplus rebounded slightly at the start of the year, rising to €17.0B in January, from a revised €16.0B in February, lifted by a 0.8% increase in exports, which offset a 0.3% rise in imports.

20 June 2018 Monetary Policy Divergence Will Boost the EZ Current Account (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's current account surplus slipped at the start of Q2, falling to €28.4B in April from an upwardly-revised €32.8B in March.

17 July 2018 Will Price Changes Spare the Blushes of EZ Net Trade in 2018 (Publication Centre)

The euro area's trade surplus slipped further mid- way through the second quarter; falling to a 15-month low of €16.9B in May, from a downwardly-revised €18.0B in April, and extending its descent from last year's peak of nearly €24.0B.

17 Mar. Fiscal Squeeze Still Set to Intensify, Despite the Economic Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor chose in his Budget to increase the total size of the forthcoming fiscal consolidation, to ensure that the Office for Budget Responsibility continues to forecast that a budget surplus will be obtained in 2019/20.

17 Feb. 2015 The Eurozone's trade surplus is surging, and more upside ahead (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's trade data showed that the Eurozone's external balance continues to improve markedly. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus in the euro area rose to €23.3B in December, a new all-time high, from a revised €21.6B in November.

19 March 2019 Don't get Used to a Japanese Trade Surplus Just Yet (Publication Centre)

Japan's adjusted trade balance flipped back to a modest surplus of ¥116B in February, after seven straight months of deficit.

12 June 2017 Germany's Trade Surplus is Vulnerable to U.K. Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

Germany continues to draw fire for its ballooning trade surplus, but momentum in net exports is easing. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus dipped marginally to a three-month low of €19.7B in April, from €19.8B in March, as stronger imports offset a modest rise in exports. The German trade surplus averaged €19.9B in the first four months of 2017, about 10% lower than the cyclical peak, in the middle of 2016.

BUSINESS INSIDER - Germany's ballooning trade surplus just hit a new record size (Media Centre)

Germany's exporters just broke another record: The trade surplus for Europe's biggest economy is now at its highest on record.........Here's how Germany's recent export history looks, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics

20 Nov. 2015 EZ Current Account Surplus Goes from Strength to Strength (Publication Centre)

The current account surplus in the Eurozone is well on its way to stabilising above 3% of GDP this year. The seasonally adjusted surplus rose to €29.4B in September from a revised €18.7B in August, lifted by a higher trade surplus, thanks to rebounding German exports. The services balance was unchanged at €4.5B in September, while the primary income balance edged higher to €4.8B from €4.0B. The improving external balance has been driven mostly by a surging trade surplus with the U.S. and the U.K., as our first chart shows.

11 June 2018 China's Trade Surplus Should Start Trending up Again Later this Year (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus has been trending down in the last two years.

19 Mar. 2015 A Weak Euro and Low Oil Prices are Boosting the EZ Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Due to a technical quirk, Eurostat was not able to publish seasonally adjusted January trade numbers yesterday, so the report is of limited use. The unadjusted trade surplus in the Eurozone plunged to €7.9B in January, from €24.3B in December, driven in part by a collapse in Italy's surplus.

20 Jan. 2015 Current Account Surplus Stays Robust, but Watch Deficit in Spain (Publication Centre)

Eurozone current account data yesterday provided further evidence of stabilisation in the economy despite a headline deterioration. The adjusted current account surplus fell to €18.1B in November from a revised €19.5B in October, but the decline was mainly driven by an increase in current transfers; the core components remain solid.

8 May 2018 China's Diminished Current Account Surplus is Hugely Significant (Publication Centre)

China's current account dropped sharply in Q1, to a deficit of $28.2B, from a surplus of $62.3B in Q4.

23 Nov. 2015 If the Chancellor Wants A Budget Surplus, Taxes Will Have to Rise (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor claims he can eliminate public borrowing without raising taxes. But the latest borrowing overshoot and the continual optimistic bias of the OBR's forecasts cast doubt on whether his approach will be sufficient to meet his self-imposed surplus target.

FINANCIAL TIMES - Eurozone current account surplus hits fresh record (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone Current Account

27 June 2018 Mexico's Soft Retail Sales Will Change Course Soon, for the Better (Publication Centre)

Mexico's private spending stumbled at the start of the second quarter.

2 May 2018 Have Markets Priced in Today's Poor Q1 GDP Report in the EZ? (Publication Centre)

We previewed today's advance EZ Q1 GDP number in our Monitor on April 30--see here--and the data since have not changed our outlook.

30 April 2018 A Tough Week for the BRL, Any Relief Likely will be Temporary (Publication Centre)

The deterioration of global risk appetite and, in particular, domestic politics have put the Brazilian real under severe pressure in recent weeks.

29 September 2017 Revisions to Show Higher Household Saving, but a Worse External Deficit (Publication Centre)

The picture of the economy's recent performance will be redrawn today, when the national accounts are published.

27 February 2018 Is Shorting Italian Government Bonds the New Widowmaker? (Publication Centre)

Eurozone bond traders of a bearish persuasion are finding it difficult to make their mark ahead of Italy's parliamentary elections next weekend.

30 July 2019 Data released last week confirmed that economic activity improved significantly in Argentina in Q2. (Publication Centre)

Argentina's Recession Has Ended, Supporting Mr. Macri's Odds

26 June 2017 Equity Markets will Worry if EZ PMIs Fall Further in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone PMIs stumbled at the end of Q2. The composite index slipped to a five-month low of 55.7 in June, from 56.8 in May, constrained by a fall in the services index. This offset a marginal rise in the manufacturing index to a new cyclical high. The dip in the headline does not alter the survey's upbeat short- term outlook for the economy.

26 September 2018 Brazil's External Accounts Will Remain Resilient the BRL Will Help (Publication Centre)

Brazilian financial assets lately appear to be responding only to developments in the presidential election race and external jitters.

21 August 2017 Construction is Propelling the Eurozone Economy in 2017 (Publication Centre)

The construction sector remains a stand-out performer in the Eurozone economy, despite stumbling at the end of Q2.

20 April 2017 Don't Miss Today's Soaring Eurozone Construction Data (Publication Centre)

Markets tend to ignore Eurozone construction data, but we suspect today's report will be an exception to that rule. Our first chart shows that we're forecasting a 8.5% month-to-month leap in February EZ construction output, and we also expect an upward revision to January's numbers.

27 September 2018 China's Macro Stance is Loosening is it Business as Usual (Publication Centre)

In yesterday's Monitor, we laid out how conditions last year were conducive to Chinese deleveraging, and how the debt ratio fell for the first time since the financial crisis.

21 August 2017 Chile's Economy is Improving, but Expect Only Modest Growth in H2 (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q2 GDP report, released on Friday, confirmed that the economy gathered momentum in recent months, following an alarmingly weak start to the year.

29 January 2019 External Accounts in Brazil and Mexico are no Threat, For Now (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts were a relatively bright spot last year, once again.

28 Oct 2019 Fernández Likely Won Argentina's Presidency, Brace for the Worst (Publication Centre)

Recent polls in Argentina suggest that Alberto Fernández, from the opposition platform Frente de Todos, has comfortably beaten Mauricio Macri, to become Argentina's president.

29 Aug 2019 Hong Kong It's not Just the Economy, Stupid (Publication Centre)

Concern over individual freedoms was the spark for Hong Kong's recent demonstrations and troubles, and protesters' demands continue to be political in nature.

29 November 2018 We're Holding our Non-Consensus View for no Bank of Korea Hike (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea will tomorrow hold its final meeting for the year.

25 October. 2016 Can the Government Afford to Sacrifice the City? (Publication Centre)

When you read between the lines of its public statements on Brexit, the Government appears to be prioritising controlling immigration over maintaining unfettered access to the single market, much to the chagrin of the financial sector.

29 October 2018 Bolsonaro Likely Won Brazil's Presidency, the Hard Work Begins (Publication Centre)

Recent polls suggest that Jair Bolsonaro has comfortably beaten Fernando Haddad, to become Brazil's president.

29 Oct. 2015 Will the Chancellor Ease Next Year's Fiscal Squeeze? (Publication Centre)

The defeat in the House of Lords of the Government's plans to cut spending on tax credits by £4.4B next year is not a barrier to their implementation. But it has prompted speculation that the Chancellor will reduce the size of the fiscal consolidation planned for next year. The plans may be tweaked in the Autumn Statement on 25 November, but we think the economy will still endure a major fiscal tightening next year.

29 Oct 2019 The Mexican Economy Stagnated in Q3, Q4 Will be Slightly Better (Publication Centre)

While we were out, data released in Mexico added to our downbeat view of the economy in the near term, supporting our base case for interest rate cuts in the near future.

28 August 2018 Germany's Economy is Resilient in the Face of External Risks (Publication Centre)

Friday's detailed GDP data in Germany confirm that the euro area's largest economy performed strongly in the second quarter.

29 January 2018 Brazil External Accounts Are Authorities' Least Source of Concern (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts were a bright spot last year, again.

24 April 2017 It Looks Like Mr. Macron Against Mrs. Le Pen in the Second Round (Publication Centre)

The initial "official estimate" of the French presidential election--released 20.00 CET--suggest that the runoff will be between the centre-right Emmanuel Macron and Front National's Marine Le Pen. This is consistent with opinion polls. The average of five early estimates also suggests that Mr. Macron won the vote with 23.1% of the vote against Mrs. Le Pen's 22.5%.

21 October. 2016 The ECB Treads Water, but Hints at December QE Extension (Publication Centre)

The ECB held fire yesterday. The central bank kept its main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.0%, and also maintained the deposit and marginal lending facility rates at -0.4% and 0.25% respectively.

21 Sept. 2015 Fed Abstention Increases the Risk of More QE from the ECB this Year (Publication Centre)

ECB growth bears looking for the Fed to move in order to take the sting out of the euro's recent strength were disappointed last week. The FOMC refrained from a hike, referring to the risk that slowing growth in China and emerging markets could "restrain economic activity" and put "downward pressure on inflation in the near term." In doing so, the Fed had an eye on the same global risks as the ECB, highlighting increased fears of deflation risks in China, despite a rosier domestic outlook.

22 August 2018 Sharp Fall in Borrowing Removes Need for Fiscal Tightening in 2019 (Publication Centre)

The latest public finance figures continue to imply that the Chancellor will be able to change course later this year in the Autumn Budget so that fiscal policy doesn't drag on GDP growth next year.

22 June 2017 Are we headed toward an extension of the U.K.'s EU membership? (Publication Centre)

The EU has had a better start to the Brexit negotiations than its counterpart across the Channel. The risk of disagreement within the EU on the details with of the U.K.'s exit is high, but the Continent has presented a united front so far, mainly because Mr. Macron and Mrs. Merkel agree on the broad objectives. They have no interest in punishing the U.K., but they are also keen to show that exiting the EU has costs for a country which leaves.

21 May. 2015 Greece Needs EU Bailout Funds to Pay the IMF Next Month (Publication Centre)

The day of reckoning in Greece has been continuously postponed in the past three months, but government officials told national TV yesterday that the country cannot meet its IMF payment of €300M June 5th, without a deal with the EU. The urgency was echoed by the joint statement earlier this week by German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande that Greece has until the end of this month to reach a deal.

21 June 2017 German PPI Likely has Peaked in 2017, Will Equity Markets Care? (Publication Centre)

German producer price inflation fell last month, following uninterrupted gains since the beginning of this year. Headline PPI inflation fell to 2.8% year-over- year in May, from 3.4% in April, constrained by lower energy inflation, which slipped to 3.0%, from 4.6% in April. Meanwhile, non-energy inflation declined marginally to 2.7%, from 2.8%.

21 February 2017 Brazil's Current Account Remains Healthy, FDI In ows are Robust (Publication Centre)

Brazil's current account data last week provided further evidence of stabilisation in the economy, despite the modest headline deterioration. The unadjusted current account deficit increased marginally to USD5.1B in January, from USD4.8B in January 2016, but the underlying trend remains stable, at about 1.3% of GDP. Our first two charts show that the overall deficit began to stabilize in mid-2016, as the rate of improvement in the trade balance slowed, reflecting the easing of the domestic recession.

20 September 2016 Will Weaker Sterling Ride to the Economy's Rescue? (Publication Centre)

Hopes that the economy will not slow over the next year are largely pinned on the idea that net trade will be boosted by the drop in sterling. The pound has tracked sideways over the last two months and is about 15% below its trade-weighted peak in November 2015.

20 March 2018 Technocrats with International Credentials get China's Top Jobs (Publication Centre)

China announced the appointment of key political and financial jobs yesterday.

20 July 2018 Further Downside for the Euro in the Second Half of the Year (Publication Centre)

EURUSD has been battered in recent months, falling just over 6% since the end of April, but almost all indicators we look at suggest that the it will weake further towards 1.10, in the second half of the year.

22 June. 2016 Resilient EZ Survey Data Ahead, but Sentiment Would Fall on Brexit (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ZEW investor sentiment in Germany shows showed no signs that uncertainty over the U.K. referendum is taking its toll on EZ investors. The expectations index surged to 19.2 in June, from 6.4 in May, the biggest month-to-month jump since January last year, when investors were eagerly expecting the ECB's QE announcement.

20 July 2017 Today's ECB Meeting Ought to be Snoozer, But Expect Volatility (Publication Centre)

The ECB is unlikely to make any changes to its policy stance today. We think the central bank will keep its refinancing and deposit rates at 0.00% and -0.4%, respectively, and maintain the pace of QE at €60 per month until the end of the year. We also don't expect any substantial change in the language on forward guidance and QE.

20 November 2017 Low Core Inflation Continues to Provide Cover for Mr. Draghi (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi's speech to the European Banking Congress on Friday--see here--was a timely reminder to markets that the ECB is in no hurry to make any changes to its policy setting.

20 September 2017 Construction in the Eurozone Will Continue to Lift GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Construction in the Eurozone had a decent start in the third quarter. Output rose 0.5% month-to- month in July, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.9% from 2.8% in June.

24 January 2019 Future Fiscal Stimulus Is Still Secure, Despite Worse Borrowing Data (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the trend in public borrowing deteriorated sharply late last year. In the three months to December, borrowing on the main "PSNB ex ." measure, which excludes banks owned by the public sector, was a trivial £0.3B, or 1.6%, lower than in the same months of 2017.

24 September 2018 How can the Fed Slow the Economy when the Private Sector is so Strong? (Publication Centre)

The big difference between economic cycles in developed and emerging markets is that recessions in the former tend to be driven by the unwinding of imbalances only in the private sector, usually in the wake of a tightening of monetary policy.

21 December 2017 Polls Point to a Hung Parliament In Catalonia in Today's Vote (Publication Centre)

Catalonia goes to the polls today, and it will be a close call. Surveys point to a hung parliament in which neither the pro-separatists nor the unionist coalition will secure an absolute majority.

23 May 2018 Chinese Capex Growth will Flounder this Year as PPI Inflation Slows (Publication Centre)

China's capex growth faces renewed challenges this year, as PPI inflation slows.

20 Aug 2019 July Dip in EZ Headline and Core Inflation Will Soon be Reversed (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone eased at the start of Q3.

30 May 2017 How Durable is the Euro's Rally Against the Dollar? (Publication Centre)

Fiscal stimulus, partly financed by a border adjustment tax, and Fed rate hikes, were supposed to be a powerful cocktail driving a stronger dollar in 2017. But so far only the Fed has delivered--we expect another rate hike next month--while Mr. Trump has disappointed in the White House.

22 November 2018 Will the EU Impose Sanctions on Italy over its Budget Deficit Plans (Publication Centre)

The EU Commission and Italy's government remain at loggerheads over the country's fiscal plans next year.

23 February 2018 PBoC Fights Back Against RMB Strength but BoJ Le to Jawbone (Publication Centre)

The PBoC managed to keep interest rates well- anchored around the Chinese New Year holiday, when volatility is often elevated.

25 July 2018 China's Scope for Fiscal Expansion is Surprisingly Limited (Publication Centre)

The PBoC and Ministry of Finance have been locked in a relatively public debate recently over which body should shoulder the burden of stimulating the economy as growth slows and trade tensions take their toll.

7 June 2018 Should the ECB Teach Shorts in Italian Two-year BTPs a Lesson? (Publication Centre)

This week's uproar over the ECB's purchases of Italian debt in May--or lack thereof--shows that monetary policy in the euro is never far removed from the political sphere.

7 Nov 2019 India Started Q4 Badly, Modi's RCEP Snub is Short-Sighted (Publication Centre)

India's PMIs for October were grim, indicating minimal carry-over of energy from the third quarter rebound.

7 Oct 2019 Progress on Brazil's Fiscal Reform Resilient Remittances in Mexico (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Senate concluded last week the first vote- of-two- on the pension reform.

7 September 2018 Are Chinese Efforts to Stabilise Growth Starving Private Firms (Publication Centre)

China's authorities recognised, around the middle of this year, that activity was slowing and that monetary conditions had become overly tight.

8 Apr. 2016 Net Exports Likely Weighed on French GDP Growth Again in Q1 (Publication Centre)

External demand in France probably weakened in the first quarter. The trade deficit widened sharply to €5.2B in February, from a revised €3.9B in January, pushing the current account deficit to an 18-month high. It is tempting to blame the stronger euro, but that wasn't the whole story.

7 Nov 2019 A Rare Batch of Good News in the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were mostly positive.

7 March 2019 Monthly Data Shed Light on Korea's Strong Q4, but Q1 is Looking Poor (Publication Centre)

Korea's final GDP report for Q4 was little changed, in the end.

7 April 2017 What Place will QE have in the Bank's Future Policy Mix? (Publication Centre)

Markets were jolted yesterday by news that the U.S. Fed is mulling ending, or at least slowing, the reinvestment of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities later this year. Such a move would reduce liquidity in global markets that has underpinned soaring equity prices in recent years.

7 Aug 2019 We're Still Not Buying Healthy Data in Japan Wage Growth is Distorted (Publication Centre)

Always expect the unexpected in a bonus month for Japanese wages.

7 December 2018 Will the BoJ be Put Off Policy Adjustments by Market Turmoil? (Publication Centre)

Recent market turmoil and concerns on the outlook for global growth have re-awakened talk of stimulus. For the BoJ, this inevitably raises the question of what could possibly be done, given that policy already appears to be on the excessively loose side of loose.

19 September 2016 Construction Investment Will Boost EZ GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Construction data in the Eurozone usually don't attract much attention, but today's July report will provide encouraging news, compared with recent poor manufacturing data. We think construction output leapt 2.1% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 2.3%, from 0.7% in June. This strong start to the third quarter was due mainly to a jump in non-residential building activity in France and Germany.

8 February 2018 Is the Acceleration in German Manufacturing Output Over? (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in Germany stumbled at the end of Q4. Data yesterday showed that output fell 0.6 month-to-month in December, though this drop has to be seen in light of the downwardly-revised 3.1% jump in November.

8 January 2018 Brazil's Industrial Sector and Foreign Trade to Remain Resilient in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Survey data have been signalling a relatively resilient Brazilian economy in the last few months, despite intensified political risk, and hard data are beginning to confirm this story.

9 August 2018 War and Peace in China's Trade Data... and Some Capital Flows (Publication Centre)

China's export data shows little impact from trade tensions so far.

9 July 2018 Evidence is Mounting that German Manufacturing did Well in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production data in Germany added to the manufacturing optimism following the sharp rise in new orders--see here--reported earlier in the week.

9 March 2018 The ECB is Edging Towards the QE Exit, but Rates set to Remain Low (Publication Centre)

The ECB made no major policy changes yesterday, but tweaked its communication. The key refinancing and deposit rates were kept at 0.00% and -0.4%, respectively, and the pace of QE was maintained at €30B per month.

9 Sept 2019 China's RRR cut Helps Credit Supply but Demand Still Wanting (Publication Centre)

The PBoC cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio late on Friday--as signalled at last Wednesday's State Council meeting--by 0.5 percentage points, to be implemented from September 16.

9 Aug 2019 China's Trade Balance has Just About Peaked, For Now (Publication Centre)

China's trade numbers for July surprised to the upside, with both exports and imports faring better than consensus forecasts in year-over-year terms.

8 Nov 2019 The RMB Rally is Understandable, but Let's not Over-egg it (Publication Centre)

The RMB has been on a tear, as expectations for a "Phase One" trade deal have firmed.

8 March 2017 Brazil's Economy Struggled Late Last Year, Will it Grow in Q1? (Publication Centre)

Markets have been positively surprised by Brazil's rapid disinflation, the efforts at fiscal reform, and the prospect of growth in the economy this year. The Ibovespa index is now above its pre-crisis high and the real has approached the key level of three per USD in recent months. But the latest GDP report, released yesterday, showed that the economy struggled in Q4. Real GDP fell 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, worse than the revised 0.7% drop in Q3.

8 March 2017 Focus on the Trend in German Factory Orders, to Retain Sanity (Publication Centre)

A setback in German manufacturing orders was coming after the jump at the end of 2016, but yesterday's headline was worse than we expected. Factory orders crashed 7.4% month-to-month in January, more than reversing the 5.4% jump in December. The year-over-year rate fell to -0.8% from a revised +8.0%. The decline was the biggest since 2009, but the huge volatility in domestic capital goods orders means that the headline has to be taken with a large pinch of salt.

8 Nov 2019 About that German Recession in Q2 and Q3...It's is a Very Close Call (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in Germany endured another miserable quarter in Q3.

6 Nov 2019 Some Preliminary Thoughts on EZ Fiscal Policy Next Year (Publication Centre)

Judging by interactions with readers in the past few weeks, fiscal policy is one of the most important topics for EZ investors as we move into the final stretch of the year.

6 Nov 2019 PBoC Wades in with a... 5bp MLF cut, it's Nowhere Near Enough (Publication Centre)

The PBoC finally moved yesterday, cutting its one-year MLF rate by 5bp to 3.25%, whilst replacing around RMB 400B of maturing loans.

4 Nov 2019 Korea's Export Slump has Bottomed Out... Global Trade will Follow Suit (Publication Centre)

The downturn in global trade looks set to turn a corner, at least judging by the outlook for Korean exports, which are a key bellwether.

4 Sept 2019 Will Italian 10-Year Yields Go to Zero We Don't See Why Not (Publication Centre)

We sympathise if readers are sceptical of our opening gambit in this Monitor.

5 April 2017 The Brazilian Economy is Improving: Expect a Modest Q1 GDP Recovery (Publication Centre)

Brazilian February industrial production data, released yesterday, were relatively positive. Output rose 0.1% month-to-month, pushing the yearover- year rate down to -0.8% from 1.4% in January. Statistical quirks were behind February's year-over-year fall, though.

5 April 2019 Mexico's Economy Remained Weak in Q1, but it will Rebound from Q2 (Publication Centre)

The relative strength of the investor and consumer confidence reports for March, released this week, signal a better outlook for the Mexican economy.

4 Nov 2019 Are Markets Eyeing a Bottom in EZ GDP Growth? (Publication Centre)

We have spent the past few weeks shifting our story on the EZ economy from one focused on slowing growth and downside risks to a more balanced outlook. It seems that markets are starting to agree with us.

4 May. 2016 The Recent Recovery of LatAm's Currencies Poses No Threat, Yet (Publication Centre)

The recovery of some key commodity prices, policy action in China, and stronger expectations that the U.S. Fed will start hiking rates later during the year, have helped reduce volatility in LatAm financial markets. Oil prices have rise by around 20% year-to-date, iron ore prices are up about 60% and copper has risen by 7%.

31 January 2019 Japanese Retail Sales Demand a Q4 Private Consumption Upgrade (Publication Centre)

The value of Japanese retail sales bounced back strongly in December, rising 0.9% month-on-month, after a 1.1% drop in November.

31 July 2018 Brazil's Solid External Accounts Offsetting Fiscal Risk, For Now (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts remain solid, despite the recent modest deterioration.

31 July 2019 Low Inflation and Economy Under Strain will Force Banxico to Cut (Publication Centre)

We're maintaining our estimate of Mexico's Q2 GDP growth, due today, namely a 0.2% year- over-year contraction, in line with a recent array of extremely poor data.

4 January 2018 2018-to-2019 will Expose Asian Imbalances, Hurting GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Let's say we are right, and global yields go up this year. Somewhere in the world, imbalances will be exposed, causing financial ructions and damaging GDP growth.

5 April 2019 Will the Current Account Deficit Return to Haunt the Pound? (Publication Centre)

We remain optimistic on the scope for sterling to appreciate this year, reflecting our views that a deal for a soft Brexit will be reached soon and that the MPC will resume its tightening cycle later this year.

5 December 2016 Mexico's PMIs Fell in November, Q4 GDP Outlook is Poor (Publication Centre)

The MXN came under pressure last week as news broke that Banxico Governor Agustin Carstens plans to resign next year. Mr. Carstens has led the bank since 2010; during his term, Banxico cut interest rates to record low levels and managed to keep inflation under control.

5 Nov 2019 China Faces a Mix of Spiking CPI Inflation and Ongoing PPI Deflation (Publication Centre)

China is facing a nasty mix of spiking CPI inflation and ongoing PPI deflation.

5 Nov 2019 No Relief for Manufacturing in the Eurozone at the Start of Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs for October were grim, but they told investors nothing they don't already know.

6 March 2017 Fed Fears Hit LatAm FX Last Week - is a Renewed Sell-off Coming? (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets have struggled in recent days as it has become clear that the Fed will hike next week. But we don't expect currencies to collapse, as domestic fundamentals are improving and the broader external outlook is relatively benign.

6 March 2018 Why China will Miss its GDP Growth, Fiscal Deficit and RMB targets (Publication Centre)

China's National People's Congress yesterday laid out its main goals for this year, on the first day of its annual meeting.

5 March 2018 Consumers' Spending in Germany Probably will Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data in Germany suggest that households had a slow start to the year.

5 July. 2016 EZ Manufacturing Will Lose Out if the Brexit Fallout Increases (Publication Centre)

It will take months, and perhaps years, before markets have any clarity on the U.K.'s new relationship with the EU. In the U.K., the main parties remain shell-shocked. Both leading candidates for the Tory leadership, and, hence, the post of Prime Minister, have said that they would wait before triggering Article 50.

5 February 2019 Rising Debt Servicing Costs Will Constrain any Recovery in Capex (Publication Centre)

Private non-financial corporations' profits have held up well over the last two years, despite the net negative impact of sterling's depreciation and modest increases in Bank Rate.

5 February 2019 Spain's Economy is Still the Unsung Hero in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The majority of headlines from last week's advance Q4 GDP data in the Eurozone--see here--were negative.

5 January 2018 Don't Forget the Upbeat Story in Eurozone Services (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final PMI data added to the evidence that the EZ economy was firing on all cylinders at the end of last year. The composite PMI in the euro area rose to an 11-year high of 58.5 in December, from 57.5 in November, in line with the initial estimate.

30 November 2018 Japan's Retail Sales Deliver a Rosy October Jump - Blip or Trend? (Publication Centre)

Japan's retail sales values jumped 1.2% month-on-month in October, after the upwardly-revised 0.1% increase in September.

10 September 2018 EZ Investment will Slow in Q3, but Consumption Should Pick Up (Publication Centre)

Friday was a busy day in the Eurozone economy. The third detailed GDP estimate confirmed that growth was unchanged at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, pushing the year-over-year rate down by 0.4 percentage points to 2.1%, marginally below the first estimate,2.2%.

12 Nov 2019 China's October Money Data Mean a 2020 GDP Growth Downgrade (Publication Centre)

We have downgraded our 2019 and 2020 China GDP forecasts on previous occasions because monetary conditions have been surprisingly unresponsive to lower short-term rates.

12 Nov 2019 How About an EZ Asset that's Impervious to Overvaluation? (Publication Centre)

Financial assets of all stripes are, by most metrics, expensive as we head into year-end, but for some markets, valuations matter less than in others. The market for non-financial corporate bonds in the euro area is a case in point.

12 March 2019 We Need to Talk a Bit about Revisions to German Construction (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production numbers in Germany were similar to Friday's confusing new orders data.

12 June 2018 Should Eurozone Investors Fear U.S. Import Tariffs on Cars? (Publication Centre)

Predictably, last weekend's G7 meeting in Canada ended in acrimony between the U.S. and its key trading partners.

11 Oct 2019 It's a Close Call, but we Still Think Germany was in Recession in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were ugly.

12 July 2017 Financial Conditions in the Eurozone are Tightening, Slowly (Publication Centre)

The debate about the ECB's policy trajectory is bifurcated at the moment. Markets are increasingly convinced that a rapidly strengthening economy will force the central bank to make a hawkish adjustment in its stance.

12 October 2018 Sticking to our Call for the Bank of Korea to Remain on Hold (Publication Centre)

The Board of the Bank of Korea will meet again in less than a week's time for this year's penultimate meeting.

12 September 2018 How Much is the Spanish Economy Slowing This Year (Publication Centre)

The Spanish economy remains the stand-out performer in the Eurozone, but recent data suggest that growth is slowing.

13 Sept 2019 Korea's Jobs Surprise... the Higher they Rise, the Harder they Fall (Publication Centre)

Korea's jobs report for August was a stonker, with unemployment plunging to 3.1%, from 4.0% in July, marking the lowest rate in more than five years.

14 July 2017 Core Inflation Pressures in the Eurozone Will Rise in Q3 and Q4 (Publication Centre)

Bond investors in the Eurozone are licking their wounds following a 40 basis point backup in 10-year yields since the end of last month. Nothing goes up in a straight line, but we doubt that inflation data will provide much comfort for bond markets in the short term.

13 May 2019 Latest U.S. Tariff Rise against China isn't the Death Knell for Trade Talks (Publication Centre)

The U.S. pulled the trigger on Friday, following through on President Donald Trump's tweeted threat to raise the tariffs on $200B-worth of Chinese goods, under the so-called "List 3", to 25% from 10%.

13 June 2017 The Eurozone and Asia's Big Economies are Joined at the Hip (Publication Centre)

In her inaugural Monitor, our Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish plots three scenarios for the Chinese economy. The best-case scenario is that China makes a smooth transition to consumer-led growth.

12 September. 2016 Mexico's 2017 Budget Proposals Signal Fiscal Discipline (Publication Centre)

The Mexican government last week unveiled its 2017 fiscal budget proposal. The plan makes clear that the shocks which have battered the economy and public finances since 2015 will linger in to next year. Mexico's government has been eager to cut spending in recent years.

11 Nov 2019 Signs of Stabilisation in Chinese Trade, but don't Get too Excited (Publication Centre)

China's October foreign trade headlines beat expectations, but the year-over-year numbers remain grim, with imports falling 6.4%, only a modest improvement from the 8.5% tumble in September.

11 May. 2016 German GDP Growth Likely Rose Strongly in the First Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production data in Germany were downbeat. Output fell 1.3% month-to-month in March, pushing the year-over-over rate down to 0.3%, from 2.0% in February. Production was held back by weakness in manufacturing and a plunge in construction, Meanwhile, energy output rebounded slightly following last month's fall. Over Q1 as a whole, though, the industrial sector performed strongly.

10 Feb. 2016 No Relief for German Q4 GDP Forecasts in Yesterday's Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German manufacturing and trade data did little to allay our fears over downside risks to this week's Q4 GDP data. At -1.2% month-to-month in December, industrial production was much weaker than the consensus forecast of a 0.5% increase. Exports also surprised to the downside, falling 1.6% month-to-month. Our GDP model, updated with these data, shows GDP growth fell 0.2%-to-0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, reversing the 0.3% increase in Q3.

10 January 2018 German Industrial Output Growth Won't Accelerate Much Further (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in Germany were stellar, but base effects mean that the story for Q4 as a whole is less upbeat.

10 April 2018 Q1 was a write-off for the German economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's trade data added to the evidence that momentum in the German economy slowed sharply at the start of the year.

10 April 2018 China's Capital Outflows Remain Modest, but will Pick up (Publication Centre)

China's FX reserves were relatively stable in March, with the minimal increase driven by currency valuation effects.

1 December 2017 Will the Improvement in Brazil's External Accounts Continue? (Publication Centre)

External conditions continue to favour Brazil. The recovery in domestic demand in the world's major economies, particularly the rebound in business investment, has driven a gradual revival of global exports.

10 July 2018 China's FX Reserves Suggest the June RMB Slide was a Warning Shot (Publication Centre)

China's FX reserves were little changed in June, at $3,112B.

10 July 2018 Should we be Excited About the Rebound in EZ Investor Sentiment (Publication Centre)

It has been mostly doom and gloom for euro area investors in equities and credit this year.

10 October 2018 Did German GDP Growth Crash in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The hard data now point to a horrendous Q3 GDP print in Germany, which almost surely will constrain the advance EZ GDP print released on October 30.

11 February 2019 Winter Bonuses will Help Q4 GDP, but they Mask Underlying Softness (Publication Centre)

Wage growth in Japan accelerated to a six-month high in December, inching up to 1.8% year-over-year, from November's 1.7%.

19 October 2018 A Closer Look at Italy's Budget Plan for 2019 the EU Won't Like It (Publication Centre)

Italian bond yields have remained elevated this week, following the release of the government's detailed draft budget for 2019.

10 May 2019 See No Evil, Hear No Evil in Today's U.S. China Trade Talks (Publication Centre)

As we head to press, investors are holding their breath over whether today's trade talks between the U.S. and China will be enough for Mr. Trump to step back from his pledge to increase tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods to 25%.

10 May 2017 German GDP Growth Likely Accelerated in the First Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in Germany cemented the story of a strong start to the year, despite the disappointing headlines. Industrial production slipped 0.4% month-to-month in March, pushing the year-over-year rate down to +1.9% from a revised +2.0% in February.

14 Oct 2019 If German CPI Data won't Guide Bunds, Maybe Fiscal Policy will (Publication Centre)

Friday's data added further colour to the September CPI data for the Eurozone.

10 Oct 2019 A Sovereignty Threat is a Deal-breaker for China (Publication Centre)

Since the protests in Hong Kong began, we've become increasingly convinced that China is backing away from a comprehensive trade deal with Mr. Trump.

17 Nov. 2015 The Market is Underestimating How Quickly EZ Inflation is Rising (Publication Centre)

Final October inflation data surprised to the upside yesterday, consistent with our view that inflation will rise faster than the market and ECB expect in coming months. Inflation rose to 0.1% year-over-year in from -0.1% in September, lifted mainly by higher food inflation due to surging prices for fruits and vegetables. This won't last, but base effects will push the year-over-year rate in energy prices sharply higher into the first quarter, and core inflation is climbing too. Core inflation rose to 1.1% in October from 0.9% in September, higher than the consensus forecast, 1.0%.

17 Oct 2019 Early Signs of Stabilisation in the Eurozone Auto Sales Data (Publication Centre)

The beleaguered EZ car sector finally enjoyed some relief at the end of Q3, though base effects were the major driver of yesterday's strong headline.

17 May 2017 Strong Q1 Confirmed for the EZ, but will Momentum Persist in Q2? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports confirmed that the Eurozone economy had a strong start to 2017. Real GDP rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, similar to the pace in Q4, and consistent with the first estimate. The year-over-year rate fell marginally to 1.7%, from 1.8% in Q4, mainly due to base effects.

17 Mar. 2016 Will Consumer Demand for New Cars in the Eurozone Ever Slow? (Publication Centre)

Demand for new cars in the Eurozone bounced back strongly last month. Accelerating growth in the major economies lifted new registrations by 14.6% year-over-year in February, up from a 6.8% increase in January. Surging growth in Italy was a key driver, with new registrations jumping 27.3%, up from an already sizzling 17.4% in January.

17 July 2017 Eurozone Consumers' Demand for New Cars is Slowing (Publication Centre)

Consumers' demand for cars slowed in the Eurozone at the end of the second quarter. New car registrations in the euro area rose 3.0% year-over-year in June, slowing dramatically from a 10.3% rise in May.

17 June. 2016 Surging Growth in Eurozone Car Registrations Won't Last (Publication Centre)

The market for new cars in the Eurozone remained red-hot last month. New registrations surged 18.4% year-over-year in May, up from a 9.4% rise in April, and pushing the 12-month average level of registrations to a post-crisis high of 843K units. Accelerating growth in Italy and France was the key driver.

18 Apr. 2016 EZ Demand for New Cars Slowed in Q1, and will Slow A gain in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Growth in Eurozone car sales slowed slightly at the end of the first quarter. New car registrations in the euro area rose 5.8% year-over-year in March, down from a 14.4% increase in February. But the 12-month average level of new registrations jumped to new cyclical highs of 440,000 and 252,000 in the core and periphery respectively.

18 August 2017 Higher Core Inflation in the Eurozone Should be a No Brainer (Publication Centre)

Inflation data are known to defy economists' forecasts, but it should in principle b e straightforward to predict the cyclical path of EZ core inflation. It is the longest lagging indicator in the economy, and leading indicators currently signal that core inflation pressures are rising.

19 June 2018 A Trade War of Attrition Looks Likely, but the Damage for now is Minimal (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, trade negotiations have deteriorated in the last week.

15 April 2019 And Breathe Chinese Monetary Conditions are Loosening (Publication Centre)

In the last two months, we have suggested that monetary conditions have turned the corner, but have cautioned that Lunar New Year distortions make the March data critically important.

19 July 2019 Spanish GDP Growth is Still Lifting the EZ Average, Substantially (Publication Centre)

The Spanish economy remains the star performer among the majors in the Eurozone.

18 Sept 2019 Can Investors Count on the EZ as Global Uncertainty Bites (Publication Centre)

Our colleagues have been telling some unpleasant stories recently.

18 Oct 2019 The New Brexit Deal is a Classic EU Fudge, Will it Sink or Swim (Publication Centre)

Our first impression of the proposed Brexit deal between the EU and the U.K. is that it is sufficiently opaque for both sides to claim that they have stuck to their guns, even if in reality, they have both made concessions.

16 September 2016 Evidence of a Slowdown in EZ New Car Sales is Mounting (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data on EZ car sales added to the evidence that consumers' spending is slowing. We now reckon sales will rise by 1% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, after gains averaging 2.6% in the first half of the year.

18 May 2018 Are Valuations a Silver Lining for Eurozone Equities Into Year-End? (Publication Centre)

"Disappointing" is probably the word that most EZ equity investors would use to describe their market so far this year.

15 Oct 2019 China's Year-over-Year Trade Figures are Overly Grim (Publication Centre)

China's September imports missed expectations, but commentators and markets tend to focus on the year-over-year numbers.

16 Aug 2019 Eurozone Governments Have Fiscal Room, Will they use it (Publication Centre)

"Is EZ fiscal stimulus on the way?" is a question that we receive a lot these days.

15 Oct 2019 Breakthrough or False Dawns in Brexit and the Trade Wars? (Publication Centre)

Few Eurozone investors are going blindly to accept the rosy premise of last week's relief rally in equities that both a Brexit and a U.S-China trade deal are now, suddenly, and miraculously, within touching distance. But they're allowed to hope, nonetheless.

15 May 2018 Are Markets Complacent about Italy? (Publication Centre)

Italy is edging closer to a coalition government with the Five-Star Movement, the Northern League, and Forza Italia at the helm.

16 Sept 2019 Textbook EZ Wage Data, but the Policy Response Won't Be (Publication Centre)

Last week's policy announcement by the ECB and Mr. Draghi's plea to EU politicians to deliver a fiscal boost, indicate that we're living in extraordinary economic times.

16 Feb. 2016 The ECB Remains on Track to Deliver More Easing in March (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi's introductory statement before yesterday's hearing at the European Parliament repeated that the ECB will "review and possibly reconsider its monetary policy stance in March." But it didn't provide any conclusive smoking gun that further easing is a done deal.

16 February 2018 French Unemployment Plunged in Q4, and will Fall Further this (Publication Centre)

The French labour market improved much more than we expected in Q4. The headline unemployment rate plunged to 8.9%, from a downwardly-revised 9.6% in Q3.

16 Oct 2019 Core Inflation in France is Rising, but the Devil is in the Detail (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final inflation data in France for September were misleadingly soft.

15 June 2018 A Classic ECB Decision Day A Dovish Tightening of Policy (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, the ECB conformed to expectations yesterday.

16 October 2018 Will Fiscal Stimulus Boost Eurozone GDP growth in 2019 (Publication Centre)

The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area was a macroeconomic horror story

16 June 2017 Why is France not Pulling its Weight in EZ Inflation Data? (Publication Centre)

It's hard for a central bank presiding over an ageing economy to achieve a core inflation target of close to 2%. In yesterday's Monitor, we showed that German core inflation has averaged a modest 1.3% in this business cycle, despite solid GDP growth. The picture isn't much better for the ECB if we look at France.

16 June 2017 Chinese Growth to Slump Under the Burden of Deleveraging (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's money data confirmed that Chinese households have continued to borrow into Q2 but at a slower rate than in 2016. The slowdown will really set in during the second half, and into 2018. Households have done a sterling job of taking over the borrowing baton from corporates, but they can't do everything.

16 Jan. 2015 Currency Wars Turn Medieval As the SNB Abandons CHF Peg (Publication Centre)

CHF traders, and the rest of the market, were blindsided yesterday by the decision of the SNB to scrap the 1.20 EURCHF floor. The SNB has already boosted its balance sheet to about 85% of GDP to prevent the CHF from appreciating, and with the ECB on the brink of adding sovereign bonds to its QE program, the peg was simply indefensible.

11 September 2017 China's Trade Surplus Edges Lower with net Trade Contributing Little (Publication Centre)

Chinese exports grew by just 5.5% in dollar terms year-over-year in August, down from 7.2% in July. Export growth continues to trend down, with a rise of just 0.2% in RMB terms in the three months to August compared to the previous three months, significantly slower than the 4.8% jump at the p eak in January.

24 August. 2015 U.S and U.K. Demand, Not China, Drives the Eurozone Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

The sell-off in risky assets intensified while we were away, driven by China's decision to loosen its grip on the currency, and looming rate hikes in the U.S. The Chinese move partly shows, we think, the PBoC is uncomfortable pegging to a strengthening dollar amid the unwinding investment boom and weakness in manufacturing.

18 May. 2016 The EZ Trade Surplus is Stalling, but Net Exports will Lift Q2 GDP (Publication Centre)

Eurozone inflation pressures remained subdued in April. Today's final data likely will show that inflation fell to -0.2% year-over-year in April, from 0.0% in March. The main story in this report will be the reversal in services inflation from the March surge, which was due to the early Easter.

25 January 2018 Japan's Trade Surplus Should Diminish but December was a Blip (Publication Centre)

Chinese New Year effects were very visible in Japan's December trade data. Export growth slowed sharply to 9.3% year-over-year in December, from 16.2% in November.

18 Feb. 2016 Has the Chancellor's Room for Manoeuvre Disappeared? (Publication Centre)

The stubbornly slow rate of decline of public borrowing casts doubt on whether the Chancellor will run a budget surplus before the end of this parliament, as his fiscal rule stipulates. But downward revisions to debt interest forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility are likely to absolve him again from intensifying the impending fiscal squeeze in the Budget on March 16.

16 Sept. 2015 Brazil's Austerity Measures Sound Good, But Probably Won't All Happen (Publication Centre)

Brazil's government announced on Monday spending cuts and new tax increases, aiming to generate a 0.7% of GDP primary surplus, and so restore market confidence and avoid further credit rating downgrades. The plan is to reduce expenditure by BRL26B next year--or 0.4% of GDP--mainly through freezing public sector salaries and slashing social projects. These measures, especially the latter, will likely meet strong resistance in Congress. The salary freeze has more of a chance of passing, but reducing or closing some Ministries is a cost-cutting exercise with an extremely high political price.

20 June 2019 Japan's Trade Balance has Troughed, Downside Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade balance deteriorated sharply in May, flipping to a ¥967B deficit from the modest ¥57B surplus in April.

20 Nov. 2015 Will the OBR's New Forecasts Make the Chancellor Cut Deeper? (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor must feel a sense of foreboding before his pre-Autumn Statement meetings with the Office for Budget Responsibility. Even minor revisions to the independent body's economic forecasts could shred into tatters his plans for a budget surplus by the end of the parliament, given the lack of wiggle room in the July Budget borrowing projections. The OBR won't present the Chancellor with disastrous news ahead of next Wednesday's Autumn Statement, but the already slim margin for error he has in meeting his surplus goal likely will be reduced.

23 January 2017 ECB: Can the Eurozone Consumer Keep Up the Good Work in 2017? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone has come under the spotlight for its growing external surplus, but domestic households have been doing the heavy lifting for GDP growth in this business cycle. During the last four quarters, consumers' spending has boosted year-over-year GDP growth by an average of 1.0 percentage points, in contrast to a 0.4pp drag from net exports.

22 May 2017 Have Eurozone Investors Lost Their Appetite for Foreign Debt? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's current account surplus remained close to record highs at the end of Q1, despite dipping slightly to €34.1B in March, from a revised €37.8B in February. A further increase in the services surplus was the key story.

21 December 2016 Is FDI Now the Main Driver of Eurozone Capital Outflows? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus is on track for a record-breaking year in 2016. Data yesterday showed that the current account surplus rose to €28.4B in October, from €27.7B in September. The trade surplus in goods fell, but this drag was offset by a higher services and income surplus, and a lower current transfers deficit.

16 June. 2015 EZ External Demand on Track for Healthy Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Net exports should come roaring back as a driver of Eurozone GDP growth in the second quarter. The euro area trade surplus leapt to €24.3B in April, a new all-time high, up from a revised €19.9B in March. A 1.7% month-to-month fall in imports--mean-reversion from a 3.9% increase in March--was a big contributor to the higher surplus.

14 July 2017 Ignore the Headline Trade Numbers, Chinese Growth is Slowing (Publication Centre)

China's headline trade numbers appear to paint a picture of an economy in rude health but scratch the surface and the story is quite different. The trade surplus rose to$42.8B in June from $40.8B in May, hitting consensus.

10 June. 2016 Falling Real Imports Will Lift German Net Trade in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Germany's external balance was virtually stable at the beginning of the second quarter. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose marginally to €23.9B in April from a revised €23.7B in March, mainly due to weakness in imports. Demand for goods abroad fell 0.2% month-to-month, which pushed up the surplus despite amid unchanged exports. Imports fell 1.5% year-over-year in April, up slightly from a 2.5% decline in March.

Question of the Week, WC 2nd July (Media Centre)

Why is the EZ current account surplus rising and net exports falling at the same time? 

24 February 2017 Is Sterling's Depreciation a Blessing or a Curse for Profits? (Publication Centre)

This week's GDP figures showed that firms invested only sparingly in 2016, but their financial fortunes have been bolstered by a recovery in profits. The gross operating surplus of all firms rose by 4.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, the biggest increase for 11 quarters. This pushed the share of GDP absorbed by profits up to 21.3%, just above its 60-year average of 21.2%.

10 Mar. 2015 Don't Panic Over Fall in German Exports, Trend is Still Firm (Publication Centre)

The 12-month average German trade surplus continues to set records, rising to €18.2B in January, but exports started the quarter on a weak note, falling 2.1% month-to-month in January, equivalent to a mere 1.9% rise year-over-year.

10 May 2017 The Budget Deficit is Rising, even Before any Unfunded Tax Cuts (Publication Centre)

The CBO reckons that the April budget surplus jumped to about $179B, some $72B more than in the same month last year. This looks great, but alas all the apparent improvement reflects calendar distortions on the spending side of the accounts.

13 October. 2016 The Chancellor Won't Set Fiscal Policy to Boost Growth Next Year (Publication Centre)

Many commentators have assumed that the new Chancellor's pledge to "reset" fiscal policy and to stop targeting a budget surplus in this parliament means that fiscal policy will support growth in economic activity next year.

11 Apr. 2016 Slowing German Export Growth Adds to Manufacturing Woes (Publication Centre)

The first quarter probably saw continued weakness in German net trade, despite the modest February rebound in gross exports. The seasonally-adjusted trade surplus rose to €19.7B from €18.7B in January, lifted by a 1.3% month-to-month rise in exports, which offset a 0.4% increase in imports.

16 April 2018 Chinese New Year Holiday Effects Spill over into the March Trade Data (Publication Centre)

The holiday effects are at it again. C hina's trade balance dropped to a deficit of $5.0B in March, from a surplus of $33.5B in February, confounding expectations for a surplus of $27.5B.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surprise surplus due to erratic goods; don't expect a trade boost to materialise soon.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage growth rebounded because August is not a bonus month. Japan's current account maintains stability as trade balance cross currents persist. China's services PMI report contains some positive details but we aren't convinced. The rebuilding of Korea's current account surplus will soon lose momentum.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Valuation effects boost China's June FX reserves. Japan's currency account surplus unlikely to fall further. Japan's core machine orders should shake policymakers' conviction in Capex resilience.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Overdue correction in the primary income surplus brings Korea's current account back down to earth.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's capex on a much weaker footing than original data showed. Japan's current account surplus will continue to face cross-currents. China's export weakness is not over yet. China FX reserves spared as intervention goes on behind the scenes.

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by fall in the trade surplus; portfolio outflows remain modest.

10 Feb. 2015 German exports are strong, but too dependent on the U.S. and the U.K. (Publication Centre)

External demand for the Eurozone's largest economy is going from strength to strength. Seasonally adjusted German exports rose 3.4% month-to-month in December, equivalent to a solid 7.5% increase year-over-year.The revised indices show that the annualised surplus rose to an all-time high of €218B, or 7% of GDP, last year, indicating that the level of external savings remains a solid support for the economy.

EZ Datanote: EZ Trade and ZEW (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weakness in imports lifted the surplus; ZEW is still depressed.

25 January 2017 Brazil's Current Account Gap is Shrinking, but not for Much Longer (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts were the bright spot last year, once again, but the ne ws will soon take a turn for the worse. The current account deficit fell to just USD24B last year, or 1.3% of GDP, from USD59B in 2015. The improvement was driven by the trade surplus, which rose to USD48B, the highest since 1992, when the comparable data series begins. A 20% plunge in imports, coupled with a mere 3% dip in exports, explain the rising trade surplus.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage picture has turned ugly for workers, even accounting for sampling distortions. China's current account surplus increase is hard to fathom.

28 June 2017 ISM Survey Suggests May Trade Deficit to Drop Sharply (Publication Centre)

The April international trade numbers were startlingly, and surprisingly, horrible. The deficit in trade in goods leaped by $6.2B -- the biggest one-month jump in two years -- to $67.1B, though the headline damage was limited by a sharp narrowing in the oil deficit, thanks to lower prices, and a rebound in the aircraft surplus.

25 May. The Chancellor is Still Headed for a Mid-Parliament Fiscal Crunch (Publication Centre)

April's public finances show that borrowing still is falling more slowly than the Chancellor had envisaged. This casts further doubt over whether he will be able to keep his pledge to run a budget surplus before the end of this parliament in 2020.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus rejoins previous uptrend. China's FX reserves; strong valuations boost outweighs sales. Japan's Q1 GDP gets an upgrade, at the expense of Q2. Japan's current account surplus.

29 May 2018 A Peek into the Abyss of an Italian Parallel Currency and Euro Exit (Publication Centre)

We have to hand it to Italy's politicians. In an economy with a current account surplus of 3% of GDP, a nearly balanced net foreign asset position and with the majority of government debt held by domestic investors, the leading parties have managed to prompt markets to flatten the yield curve via a jump in shortterm interest rates.

Asia Datanote: Current account, China, Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Domestic weakness rebuilds China's current account surplus.

30 January 2018 Mexico's Trade Gap Shrank in 2017, Helped by NAFTA-Related Fears (Publication Centre)

Mexico's trade balance shrank slightly last year, to USD11B, from USD13B in 2016. The main driver was a big swing in the non- energy balance, to a record USD8.0B surplus, following a USD0.4B deficit in 2016.

30 June 2017 Temer's Fate Carries Risks, but a Currency Meltdown Isn't One (Publication Centre)

Brazil's unadjusted current account surplus soared to USD2.9B in May, its highest level since 2006, from USD1.1B in May 2016.

Question of the Week, WC 9th July (Media Centre)

Why is the EZ current account surplus rising and net exports falling at the same time? 

GUARDIAN - Brexit uncertainty hits plans to cut budget deficit (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Public Finances

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