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190 matches for " summer":

UK Datanote: U.K. Summer Statement 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not enough to underpin a V-shaped recovery.

26 Nov 2019 The Export Collapse Signalled by the Late Summer ISM has been Averted (Publication Centre)

We were terrified by the plunge in the ISM manufacturing export orders index in August and September, which appeared to point to a 2008-style meltdown in trade flows.

28 Sept. 2015 Don't Believe Case-Shiller Home Price Data - Prices are Rising (Publication Centre)

Former Treasury Secretary and thwarted would-be Fed Chair Larry Summers has been arguing for some time that the Fed should not raise rates "...until it sees the whites of inflation's eyes". As part of his campaign to persuade actual Fed Chair Yellen of the error of her intended ways, he argued at the World Economic Forum in September that the strong dollar has played no role in depressing inflation. Never one to miss an opportunity to diss the competition, he wrote that Stanley Fischer's view that the dollar has indeed restrained inflation is "substantially weakened" by the hard evidence. Dr. Summers' view is that inflation is being held down by other, longer-lasting factors, principally the slack in the lab or market, rather than the "transitory" influences favored by the Fed.

23 Sept 2020 The Housing Market is Starting to Come Off the Boil (Publication Centre)

It is fair to say that the strength of the rebound in the housing market over the summer has caught most analysts, including ourselves, by surprise.

16 May 2018 Downside Risks to April Housing Construction, IP Looks Strong (Publication Centre)

We see downside risk to the housing starts numbers for April, due today. Our core view on housing market activity, both sales and construction activity, is that the next few months, through the summer, will be broadly flat-to-down.

9 July 2020 Further Stimulus Likely will be Needed in the Autumn Budget (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor's Summer Statement contained a targeted package of measures aiming to sustain employment and support the ailing hospitality sector. In total, these measures could inject up to £30B into the economy, depending on take-up by households and firms.

8 July 2020 A Stamp Duty Cut Wouldn't Send the Housing Market into Overdrive (Publication Centre)

Speculation has mounted in the press that the Chancellor will raise the threshold for Stamp Duty Land Tax temporarily to £500K, from £125K, in today's Summer Statement.

18 May 2020 America's Three-Legged Recovery Stool Looks Less Shaky by the Day (Publication Centre)

In recent client "meetings" we have been emphasizing the idea that a sustained recovery in the economy over the summer depends on the solidity of a three-legged stool.

16 Mar. 2015 The Fed won't wait for the Whites of Inflation's eyes (Publication Centre)

We don't often picks fights with Nobel prize winners and former Treasury secretaries. But right now we think that Paul Krugman and Larry Summers, leading lights of the view that the Fed should not begin to raise rates "until you see the whites of inflation's eyes", are dead wrong.

4 Nov 2019 The Jobs Outlook is Deteriorating Despite the Solid October, ex-GM (Publication Centre)

The unexpectedly robust 128K increase in October payrolls--about 175K when the GM strikers are added back in--and the 98K aggregate upward revision to August and September change our picture of the labor market in the late summer and early fall.

10 June 2020 GDP Recovery Greatly Constrained by the Fitful Reopening of Schools (Publication Centre)

The government's decision to shelve plans to reopen primary schools fully later this month will ensure that GDP remains greatly below its precoronavirus level throughout the summer months.

10 Dec. 2015 Does the Case for Permanently Much Lower Real Rates Stand Up? (Publication Centre)

Larry Summers stirred the pot yet again with an article in the FT at the weekend, arguing that because the Fed typically eases by more than 300bp to pull the economy out of recession, "the chances are very high that recession will come before there is room to cut rates enough to offset it". This follows from his view that the neutral level of real short rates has fallen so far that "the odds are the Fed will not be able to raise rates 100 basis points a year without threatening to undermine recovery".

7 Sept 2020 GDP Growth will Slow Sharply as Temporary Supports are Removed (Publication Centre)

Data released during our summer break have strengthened the case for expecting the economic recovery to decelerate sharply in the autumn, well before GDP has returned to pre-Covid levels.

7 Aug 2020 A Modest Rise in Payrolls Look Likely, but Big Risks in Both Directions (Publication Centre)

The final Monitor before our summer break is characterized by great uncertainty.

26 September. 2016 When Will Manufacturing Shake off the Summertime Blues (Publication Centre)

We're still no nearer to a definitive answer to the question of what went wrong in the manufacturing sector over the summer, when we expected to see things improving on the back of the rebound in activity in the mining sector, rising export orders and an end to the domestic inventory correction. Instead, the August surveys dropped, and September reports so far are, if anything, a bit worse.

14 Jan. 2016 Inflation Outlook Still Could Push MPC to Hike Before the Summer (Publication Centre)

Markets' judgement that the Monetary Policy Committee--which meets today--will wait until 2017 to raise interest rates overestimates the role that the drop in oil prices and slower GDP growth will play in its decision-making. The inflation risks emanating from the increasingly tight labour market still could motivate a tightening before the summer.

6 June 2017 ISM Non-manufacturing Jobs Up Sharply. Summer Payrolls to Surge? (Publication Centre)

The 6.4-point rebound in the May ISM non-manufacturing employment index, to a very high 57.8, supports our view that summer payroll growth will be strong. On the face of it, the survey is consistent with job gains in excess of 300K, as our first chart shows, but that's very unlikely to happen.

30 Apr 2020 Zero CPI Inflation in the Summer Won't Become Entrenched (Publication Centre)

Britain now looks set to flirt with deflation in the summer.

21 May 2020 Zero CPI Inflation Still Likely by the Summer, Following April's Big Fall (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation took a big step in April towards the near-zero rate we anticipate by the summer.

Bloomberg - Fed May Bring Hot, Volatile Summer, Says Shepherdson (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, founder at Pantheon Macroeconomics Ltd., discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike pattern and how it can provide a summer surprise to markets. He speaks with Bloomberg's Mark Barton on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

20 July 2020 Which High Frequency Indicators Truly Add Value? (Publication Centre)

High frequency data are all the rage, given the speed and severity of the Covid-19 shock. GDP data are published with a lag of about six weeks, too long for investors to wait.

20 Aug 2020 All Set for a Big Downside Surprise in the August EZ Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed July CPI report ought to have provided the first clear evidence of the effect on euro area inflation from the Covid-19 shock.

2 Apr 2020 How Long Before the Government Lifts the Lockdown? (Publication Centre)

The duration and future scope of the current lockdown is the main uncertainty that U.K economic forecasters have to grapple with at present.

2 Sep 2020 Soft August CPI Data will Push the ECB to Lift the PEPP This Month (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a busy day in the EZ

20 Nov 2019 Housing Construction is Trending Higher, Further Gains Ahead (Publication Centre)

The recent increases in single-family housing construction are consistent with the rise in new home sales, triggered by the substantial fall in mortgage rates over the past year.

20 Aug 2020 July's Jump in CPI Inflation won't be Sustained (Publication Centre)

The jump in CPI inflation to 1.0% in July, from 0.6% in June, caught all analysts by surprise.

21 Sept 2020 Looming Deflation won't Bother the BoJ, but Longer-Term Clouds Will (Publication Centre)

A spell of outright CPI deflation in Japan is just around the corner. Headline inflation slipped to 0.2% in August, from 0.3% in the previous month, as the drag from the discounts backed by the government's "Go To Travel" subsidies more than outweighed the upward pressure from non-core goods.

22 Jan 2020 Existing Home Sales to Rise in H1, Whatever Happened in December (Publication Centre)

The weather-driven surge in December housing starts, reported last week, is unlikely to be replicated in today's existing home sales numbers for the same month.

22 July 2020 Rising Covid-19 Cases Suggest the Reopening Has Gone too Far (Publication Centre)

Complacency and wishful thinking seem to be creeping back into the government's approach to containing Covid-19.

22 June 2020 Retail Sales will be a Poor Bellwether for Households' Overall Spending (Publication Centre)

We advise strongly against concluding from the above-consensus rebound in retail sales in May that the economy is embarking on a healthy, V-shaped recovery, from Covid-19.

22 June 2020 Real-Time Data Signal the Economy is Expanding, but Some Weak Spots (Publication Centre)

Today brings only the May existing home sales report, previewed below, so we have an opportunity to look over the latest near-real-time data on economic activity. The picture is mixed.

21 Sept 2020 August will Prove to Be the High Water Mark for Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

Retailers made hay while the sun shone in August, but clouds now are looming overhead. The 0.8% month-to-month rise in retail sales volumes took them 3.3% above last year's average.

22 June. 2016 No Real Change from Yellen, but Acknowledgement of Other Views (Publication Centre)

Dr. Yellen's Testimony yesterday was largely a cut-and-paste job from the FOMC statement last week and her remarks at the press conference. The Fed's core views have not changed since last week, unsurprisingly, and policymakers still expect to raise rates gradually as inflation returns to the target, but will be guided by the incoming data.

17 September 2018 CPI Inflation Likely Returned to its Downward Path in August (Publication Centre)

We expect August's consumer price figures, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation declined to 2.4%, from 2.5% in July, matching the consensus and the Bank of England's forecast.

13 July 2020 The Second Wave is Yet to Crest, but Progress is Emerging in the Data (Publication Centre)

The second Covid wave has not yet crested, but it won't be long. That might sound preposterous, given the endless headlines about record numbers of new cases and deaths in southern and western states.

13 May 2020 Core Inflation has Further to Fall, but Sustained Deflation is Unlikely (Publication Centre)

The record 0.4% drop in the core CPI in April would have looked even worse had it not been for favorable rounding; it was just 0.002% away from printing at -0.5%.

14 Feb 2020 Upticks in Smaller CPI Components and Rent Healthcare Pose Threats (Publication Centre)

The 0.242% increase in the January core CPI left the year-over-year rate at 2.3% for the third straight month.

14 July 2020 Mild Deflation Ahead for Core Goods Inflation in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Today's official euro area manufacturing report will be a corker.

13 July 2020 June CPI to Print Below the Consensus by 0.1pp (Publication Centre)

June's consumer price figures, released on Wednesday, probably will be overshadowed this week by data for May for GDP--see our detailed preview here--and the labour market.

13 Jan. 2016 How Fast Can the Fed Allow Wages to Rise? (Publication Centre)

The leading wage indicators in the December NFIB survey, released in full yesterday--some of the labor market components appears a few days in advance, ahead of the official payroll report--all point to a substantial acceleration over the next six-to-nine months. Our first two charts show the NFIB jobs-hard-to-fill number and expected compensation numbers, respectively, compared to the rate of growth of hourly earnings. The message is extremely clear.

12 Aug 2020 What do EZ Investor Sentiment Data Tell Us about the Q3 Outlook (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ZEW investor sentiment report in Germany provided an upside surprise.

12 May 2020 What's to Become of EZ GDP With a Hamstrung Services Sector (Publication Centre)

All major EZ governments are now in the process of lifting lockdowns, but investors should expect less a grand opening, more of a careful tip-toeing.

13 Aug 2020 Solid EZ Manufacturing Data, but Still Far Off a Full Recovery (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ industrial production report conformed to expectations.

13 Jan 2020 Labor Market Strength Means no Need for the Fed to Ease this Year (Publication Centre)

Here's the bottom line: U.S. businesses appear to have over-reacted to the impact of the trade war in their responses to most surveys, pointing to a serious downturn in economic growth which has not materialized.

15 Oct 2019 Below-Consensus September CPI Won't Strengthen Case for Stimulus (Publication Centre)

We expect September's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation held steady at 1.7%, below the 1.8% consensus.

15 Oct 2020 EZ Industrial Output in August was Distorted by Seasonals (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production data in the EZ suggest that the rebound in manufacturing slowed sharply midway through Q3.

18 Feb 2020 December Data to Sustain Picture of Solid Job Gains But Slowing Wages (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market report looks set to be a mixed bag, with growth in employment remaining strong, but further signs that momentum in average weekly wages has faded.

18 Sept 2020 QE to Remain the Main Monetary Policy Tool, at Least Until the Spring (Publication Centre)

The MPC surprised yesterday both with its bullish take on the economy's current health, and with the news that it will begin, in Q4, "structured engagement on the operational considerations" regarding negative rates.

18 Sept 2020 The ECB Will Struggle to Hold its Optimistic Line on Inflation (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed EZ inflation data for August kick ed-off a period in which the numbers will be scrutinised more closely than usual.

19 Dec 2019 Below-Target Inflation Next Year Won't Warrant Monetary Stimulus (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at 1.5% in November, marking the fourth consecutive below-target print, though it was a tenth above both the MPC's forecast and the consensus.

17 July 2020 The Surge in Retail Sales is not all that it Seems--and it Might not Last (Publication Centre)

Headline retail sales in June were just 1% below their January peak, and about 3% below the level they would have reached if the pre-Covid trend had continued.

17 July 2020 The ECB Takes Stock of a Strong and Sustained Stimulus Program (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB meeting was a snoozer, just as we predicted.

15 Sept 2020 The Manufacturing Sector is Losing Steam, but Autos have Further to go (Publication Centre)

Momentum in the rebound in economic activity has faded over the past couple months, housing and auto sales aside.

16 Oct 2020 France's September CPI Adds to the Pressure on EZ Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed French CPI data for September added to evidence of softening core inflation in the Eurozone.

16 Sept 2020 ZEW and Sentix Point to a Leap in the EZ PMIs, We don't Buy it (Publication Centre)

Market-based sentiment indicators in the Eurozone are becoming increasingly detached from the reality of the threat of resurgent Covid-19 and the danger this poses to the strength of the economic recovery.

17 Aug 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Edged Up in July, Before Turning Negative in August (Publication Centre)

We expect July's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation ticked up to 0.7% in July, from 0.6% in June.

19 Dec 2019 The Philly Fed Likely is Still Outperforming, Treat with Caution (Publication Centre)

The next couple of rounds of business surveys will capture firms' responses to the Phase One trade deal agreed last week, though the news came too late to make much, if any, difference to the December Philly Fed report, which will be released today.

25 Nov 2019 Inflation in Brazil and Mexico is Easing, No Immediate Threats Here (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the biggest economies in the region remains close to cyclical lows, allowing central banks to ease even further over the next few months.

6 Aug 2020 The Recovery will Decelerate Sharply in the Autumn (Publication Centre)

A range of indicators show that the pace of the economic recovery shifted up a gear in July, when all shops were open for the entire month, and most consumer services providers finally were permitted to reopen.

6 May 2020 ADP Today Likely will Understate the Hit to April Payrolls (Publication Centre)

Today's April ADP employment report likely will understate the scale of the net payroll losses which will be reported Friday by the BLS.

6 May 2020 Timely Indicators Show the Economy is Adapting to the Lockdown (Publication Centre)

Emerging evidence suggests that the economy has passed the period of peak Covid-19 pain.

6 Nov 2019 Minutes Confirm COPOM's Cautious Tone, Mexico's Inflation to Fall Ahead (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's minutes of the October 31 COPOM meeting, at which the Central Bank cut the Selic rate unanimously by 50bp at 5.00%, reaffirmed the committee's post-meeting communiqué, which signalled that rates will be cut by the "same magnitude" in December.

6 Aug 2020 ADP Signals Only a Modest Rise in July Payrolls, August will be Weaker (Publication Centre)

Our hopes of another solid increase in payrolls in July were severely dented by yesterday's ADP report, showing that private payrolls rose only 167K in July.

5 Oct 2020 EZ Core Inflation is Now Uncomfortably low for the ECB (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance EZ inflation data were every bit as soft as we expected. The headline slipped to -0.3% year-over-year in September, from -0.2% in August, with the core sliding by 0.2pp, to 0.2% a new record-low.

4 Aug 2020 EZ Manufacturing is Growing Again, from a Very Low Base (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final EZ manufacturing PMIs for July extended the run of gains since the nadir during lockdown.

5 Aug 2020 The EZ Budget Deficit is Widening, but the ECB is Ahead of the Curve (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data provided further evidence of the rising costs of supporting the EZ economy through the Covid-19 shock.

5 Dec 2019 The Downshift in ADP Employment Probably is Signal, not Noise (Publication Centre)

We were worried about downside risk to yesterday's ADP employment measure, but the 67K increase in November private payrolls was at the very bottom of our expected range.

5 Mar 2020 How far Will EZ Services Fall, and Will it Cause a Recession (Publication Centre)

It will take a while for the economic data in the euro area fully to reflect the Covid-19 shock, but the incoming numbers paint an increasingly clear picture of an improving economy going into the outbreak.

6 Nov 2019 The Two-Quarter Productivity Boomlet is Over, ULC Accelerating (Publication Centre)

Productivity growth reached the dizzy heights of 1.8% year-over-year in the second quarter, following a couple of hefty quarter-on-quarter increases, averaging 2.9%.

6 Oct 2020 More Evidence that the Strength of the EZ Recovery is Ebbing (Publication Centre)

The PMIs have had a hard time this year.

9 Jan 2020 Mortgage Demand Still Rising, Home Price Gains Set to Pick Up (Publication Centre)

The reported drop in mortgage applications over the holidays is now reversing, not that it ever mattered.

9 Mar 2020 Global Virus Cases Accelerating, but China and Korea Show it's Beatable (Publication Centre)

A third wave of Covid-19 outbreaks is now underway. The first, in China, is now under control, and the rate of increase of cases in South Korea has dropped sharply. The other second wave countries, Italy and Iran, are still struggling.

9 Mar 2020 Tanking Japanese Overtime Points to a Technical Recession (Publication Centre)

Labour cash earnings in Japan ostensibly started the year strongly, jumping by 1.5% year-over-year in January, much better than December's 0.2% slip.

9 Sept 2020 Caution Urged... The Slump in Japanese Wages is Far from Over (Publication Centre)

The escalation of the second wave of Covid-19 in Japan in July did little to stop the recovery in labour cash earnings growth.

8 Oct 2020 Don't Give up Hope of a Rebound in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data seemed to pour cold water on the idea of a sustained recovery in German manufacturing. Industrial production, including construction, fell by 0.2% in August driving the year-over-year rate down by 0.4pp, to -10.0%.

8 June 2020 Payrolls Set to Rise Again in June, but Don't Expect a Quick Full Recovery (Publication Centre)

The single most surprising U.S. economic report ever published likely is explained very simply: We know a great deal about the numbers of people losing jobs, but not much about people finding jobs.

7 Feb 2020 Upside Risk for Payrolls Today, but Forward-Looking Surveys are Soft (Publication Centre)

We raised our forecast for today's January payroll number after the ADP report, to 200K from 160K.

8 Jan 2020 ADP is Unlikely To Repeat November's Huge Undershoot (Publication Centre)

The contrast between November's very modest 67K ADP private payroll number and the surprising 254K official reading was startling, even when the 46K boost to the latter from returning GM strikers is stripped out.

8 July 2020 Japanese Wages are in Bad Shape Heading into Bonus Season (Publication Centre)

It is becoming increasingly safe to say that any bounce in private consumption following the end of Japan's state of emergency will be muted and difficult to sustain.

31 July 2020 Japan's Punchy June Sales Showed Pent-up Demand, Now the Hard Bit (Publication Centre)

The release of pent-up Japanese consumer demand in June was emphatic, with retail sales values jumping by 13.1% month-on-month.

31 Aug 2020 Q3 Consumption will Rocket, but Benefit Expiration Hit is Uncertain (Publication Centre)

We have revised up our third quarter GDP forecast to 25% from 15%, in the wake of last week's data. Consumers' spending is on course to rise by 36.6% if July's level of spending is maintained, though we're assuming a smaller 33% increase, on the grounds that the expiration of the enhanced unemployment benefits on July 31 will trigger a dip in spending for a time.

11 Sept 2020 Upside Risk for the August CPI, Used Car Prices are the Key Threat (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the surprise 0.6% July surge in the core CPI, the biggest increase since January 1991--most forecasters look for mean reversion to 0.2% in today's August report.

25 Sept 2020 The Labor Market is Stalling, with Layoffs Still Hugely Elevated (Publication Centre)

Initial jobless claims have stopped falling.

25 Sept 2020 The New Job Support Scheme Won't Work as Intended (Publication Centre)

We doubt that the new Job Support Scheme, announced by the Chancellor yesterday, will hold back the tide of redundancies over the coming months.

26 June 2020 The Covid Surge is Starting to Hit the Economic Data, More to Come (Publication Centre)

The extent to which the Covid wave in the South and West--plus a few states in other regions--will constrain the recovery is unknowable at this point.

25 Nov 2019 Deferring the December 15 Tariffs is not Alone Enough to Lift Growth (Publication Centre)

The weaker is the economy over the next few months, the more likely it is that Mr. Trump blinks and removes some--perhaps even all--the tariffs on Chinese imports.

25 June 2020 Virus Trends Remain Positive, but Don't Rule Out a Winter Resurgence (Publication Centre)

Britain's Covid-19 data have continued to improve, despite the partial reopening of the economy.

24 Aug 2020 Second Covid Wave Continues to Ease, but Victory Still a Long Way Off (Publication Centre)

While we were out, new U.S. Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations continued to fall steadily, and deaths have now peaked.

24 July 2020 Will the Fed Step-up the Pace of QE as Issuance Surges Again (Publication Centre)

If Congress passes another Covid relief bill early next month, as we fully expect, it will have to be financed quickly via increased debt issuance.

24 June 2020 Don't Fixate on the PMI Remaining Below 50, GDP is Rebounding (Publication Centre)

Both business surveys and unconventional activity indicators suggest that the recovery from the Covid-19 shock has sped up in June, after a shaky start in May.

26 May 2020 Reopening Risks Overstated by Hugely Increased Testing (Publication Centre)

The closer we look at the data, the less concerned we are at the painfully slow decline in the number of new daily confirmed Covid-19 cases.

26 Nov 2019 Three Reasons to Remain Open- Minded About the Election Result (Publication Centre)

The Conservatives have continued to gain ground over the last week, with support averaging 43% across the 13 opinion polls conducted last week, up from 41% in the previous week.

29 Sept 2020 All You Need to Know About this Week's EZ Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

All eyes this week will be on the EZ September inflation data with investors looking for signs that the ECB is being drawn back into easing, or alternatively, that its recent more confident tone is being vindicated.

29 Sept 2020 No-Deal Is a Risk Too Great for the Conservatives (Publication Centre)

Sterling yesterday clawed back some of the ground it lost earlier this month, when the government put forward the controversial Internal Markets Bill.

3 Dec 2019 Chainstore Sales for Thanksgiving Week Usually Look Good, but... (Publication Centre)

The Redbook chainstore sales survey today is likely to give the superficial impression that the peak holiday shopping season got off to a robust start last week.

30 June 2020 Covid-19 has had a Limited Impact on German Core inflation, for Now (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance CPI data in Germany suggest that EZ inflation is now rebounding slightly.

29 April 2019 Growth Will be Slower in Q2, but not Slow, What Will the Fed Say? (Publication Centre)

The definition of "yesbutism": Noun, meaning the practice of dismissing or seeking to diminish the importance of data on the grounds that the next iteration will tell the opposite story.

28 Sept 2020 Recent Public Borrowing Data Flatter to Deceive (Publication Centre)

Recent estimates of public borrowing have undershot the OBR's expectations, superficially suggesting the Chancellor has greater-than- expected capacity to borrow even more in the winter, if Covid-19 wreaks havoc.

28 Aug 2019 Consumers are Very Happy About the Labor Market: Can it Last? (Publication Centre)

We were happy to see upside surprises from both sides of the domestic economy yesterday, but we doubt that the August readings from both the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey and the Richmond Fed business survey can hold.

28 July 2020 Congressional Face-Off Could Delay the Next Relief Bill Until September (Publication Centre)

House Democrats and Senate Republicans are so far apart on both the structure and the size of the next Coronavirus relief package that it's hard to see a bill passing Congress in less than a couple weeks or so, and it could easily take longer.

28 May 2020 Unconventional Activity Indicators Still Recovering, Across the Board (Publication Centre)

Unconventional indicators of economic activity suggest that the recovery from the Covid-19 shock is gathering momentum.

22 Nov 2019 Don't Worry About the Uptick in Jobless Claims, Unless it Persists (Publication Centre)

Back-to-back elevated weekly jobless claims numbers prove nothing, but they have grabbed our attention.

1 Sep 2020 EZ Core Inflation will Undershoot the Consensus Today (Publication Centre)

Advance country data suggest that EZ inflation fell less than we expected last month, though we are still looking for a significant undershoot in the August core rate.

10 Dec 2019 Small Firms Like Rising Stock Prices, even as Trade Uncertainty Continues (Publication Centre)

The monthly survey of small businesses conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business is quite sensitive to short-term movements in the stock market, so we're expecting an increase in the November reading, due today.

11 Sept 2020 The ECB Just Raised the Bar for a Boost to PEPP, Significantly (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, the ECB conformed to consensus expectations yesterday by leaving its policy stance unchanged.

1 Oct 2020 This Week's EZ Core CPI will Surprise to the Downside (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's inflation data in France and Italy were just about as soft as we had expected, but not for the reasons we were looking for.

10 Dec 2019 Well-behaved Inflation in Mexico and Colombia, A Relief for Policymakers (Publication Centre)

Recent inflation and activity data in Mexico were dovish.

10 Aug 2020 German and French Manufacturing Finished Q2 on a Strong Note (Publication Centre)

Friday's manufacturing and trade data added to the evidence of a solid rebound in the EZ economy at the end of Q2, as lockdowns were lifted.

10 Mar 2020 Oil Sector Capex is Set to Collapse, Outweighing Consumers' Gain (Publication Centre)

The collapse in oil prices was the immediate trigger for the 7.6% plunge in the S&P 500 yesterday, but the underlying reason is the Covid-19 epidemic.

11 May 2020 The Labor Market is Worse than April's Headlines Suggest (Publication Centre)

Hideous though the official April payroll numbers were, the chances are that they'll be revised down.

11 May 2020 More QE Coming in June, Following Inaction from the MPC Last Week (Publication Centre)

The MPC's pause for breath last week disappointed a majority of investors, who thought that it would at least tweak aspects of the support programmes put in place in March.

11 Aug 2020 How Worried Should we be Over Spain's Economic Misery (Publication Centre)

Markets tend to look to Italy as the canary in the coalmine for signs of stress in the EZ economy and financial markets, but we recommend keeping a close eye on Spain too.

2 July 2018 Eurozone Inflation to Rise Further, Above 2%, Over the Summer? (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone increased slightly last month, and probably will rise a bit more in coming months.

23 May. 2016 LatAm Markets Hit by a Hawkish Fed - Choppy Summer Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Weakness across EM asset markets returned after the April FOMC minutes, released last week, suggested that a June rate hike is a real possibility. The risks posed by Brexit, however, is still a very real barrier to Fed action, with the vote coming just eight days after the FOMC meeting.

19 May. 2015 Rising Mortgage Demand Set to Boost Summer New Home Sales (Publication Centre)

The level of mortgage applications long ago ceased to be a reliable indicator of the level of new home sales, thanks to the fracturing of the mortgage market triggered by the financial crash. But the rates of change of mortgage demand and new home sales are correlated, as our first chart shows, and the current message clearly is positive.

14 Aug 2020 The Housing Market will Freeze Up Again, After its Hot Summer (Publication Centre)

The housing market has risen like Lazarus since the end of the lockdown.

23 Sept 2020 The V-Shaped Recovery Died in Early Summer, Now, it's a Slog, at Best (Publication Centre)

We triggered a bit of pushback on social media yesterday when we suggested that Larry Kudlow's familiarity with the alphabet is questionable.

17 May 2017 Is Housing Activity set to Reach New Cycle Highs this Summer? (Publication Centre)

Last week, the MBA's measure of the volume of applications for new mortgages to finance house purchase rose 1.7%.

18 June 2020 Deflation will be Just a Whisker Away in the Summer (Publication Centre)

The drop in CPI inflation to 0.5% in May, from 0.8% in April, brought it another big step closer to the near-zero rate we foresee in the second half of this year.

21 May 2018 Inflation Likely Fell Further in April, but a Summer Rebound Looms (Publication Centre)

April's consumer price figures, due on Wednesday, are set to show that CPI inflation has fallen, primarily due to the earlier timing of Easter this year than last. We

6 June. 2016 Payrolls Will Rebound Over the Summer - Fed to Hike in September (Publication Centre)

We chose last week to ignore the payroll warning signal from the ISM non-manufacturing employment index, which rolled over in January and February, because the danger seemed to have passed. The ISM is not always a reliable indicator--the drop in the index in early 2014 was not replicated in the official data, but the plunge in early 2015 was--and usually it operates with a very short lag, just a month or two.

24 Apr. 2015 Core capital goods orders heading down through summer (Publication Centre)

Orders for core capital goods began to fall outright in September last year; we can't blame the severe winter for the 11.1% annualized decline in the fourth quarter of last year. Indeed, the drop in orders in the first quarter will be rather smaller than in the fourth, unless today's March report reveals a catastrophic collapse.

28 July 2017 The Eurozone is in fine form, as we start our summer break (Publication Centre)

This is the final report before your scribe disappears into the Scottish Highlands for a few weeks, and we are leaving you with a Eurozone economy in fine form. The calendar will be relatively light in our absence and will tell us what we already know; namely that the euro area economy maintained its strong momentum in Q2.

8 June 2017 Hiring Plans Signal 200K-plus Summer Payroll Gains (Publication Centre)

Our core view on the May payroll number remains that the single most likely cause of the unexpectedly modest increase is a seasonal adjustment error, triggered when the survey is conducted early in the month.

26 Mar 2020 CPI Inflation to Slide Well Below 1% in the Summer (Publication Centre)

New BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will be reaching for his letter-writing pen soon, to explain to the Chancellor why CPI inflation is more than one percentage point below the 2% target.

25 June 2019 New Home Sales Set for a Steady Summer, but New Highs in the Fall (Publication Centre)

We are fundamentally quite bullish on the housing market, given the 100bp drop in mortgage rates over the past six months and the continued strength of the labor market, but today's May new home sales report likely will be unexciting.

22 Aug 2019 Brexit from the Perspective of the EU It's Complicated and Risky (Publication Centre)

The stakes in the Brexit saga have been raised significantly over the summer.

19 May 2020 Inflation Likely Slumped Below 1% in April, on Course for Zero by Q3 (Publication Centre)

April's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, likely will show that CPI inflation plunged and is heading quickly to a near-zero rate by the summer.

19 January 2017 Core Inflation Pressure Building Slowly, Headline to Jump Further (Publication Centre)

The solid numbers for December mean that core inflation remains on track to breach 2?-?% this year, though probably not until the summer. Over the next few months, base effects will help to hold the core rate close to the December pace.

19 Jan. 2016 Market Chaos in January Does Not Drive Fed Actions All Year (Publication Centre)

To paraphrase recent correspondence: "How can you possibly believe, given the terrible run of economic data and the turmoil in the markets, that the Fed will raise rates in March/June/at all this year?" Well, to state the obvious, if markets are in anything like their current state at the time of the eight Fed meetings this year, they won't hike. That sort of sustained downward pressure and volatility would itself prevent action at the next couple of meetings, as did the turmoil last summer when the Fed met in September. And if markets were to remain in disarray for an extended period we'd expect significant feedback into the real economy, reducing--perhaps even removing--the need for further tightening.

19 Nov. 2015 Fed Set for December Hike, but Expect Two Dissents (Publication Centre)

At the October FOMC meeting, policymakers softened their view on the threat posed by the summer's market turmoil and the slowdown in China, dropping September's stark warning that "Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term." Instead, the October statement merely said that the committee is "monitoring global economic and financial developments."

18 Sept. 2015 No Need to Put the Weekend on Hold for Greek Election Results (Publication Centre)

Greece goes to the polls this weekend, but unlike the chaos in the summer, we doubt it will be a nail-biting experience for investors. Polls put Syriza and the conservative New Democracy neck-and-neck, but neither party likely will be able to form a majority. Syriza has ruled out a grand coalition, which potentially means tricky negotiations with minority parties. But we are confident that any new government will be committed to euro membership, and a constructive dialogue with the EU and IMF.

18 Nov. 2015 Hawks Want to Hike, but What do They Expect From Higher Rates? (Publication Centre)

At the October FOMC meeting, policymakers softened their view on the threat posed by the summer's market turmoil and the slowdown in China, dropping September's stark warning that "Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term." Instead, the October statement merely said that the committee is "monitoring global economic and financial developments."

20 Apr 2020 Re-opening Dangers Vary Across the U.S., but Nowhere is Risk-Free (Publication Centre)

We understand the desire of investors and individuals to see the economy re-opening as soon as possible, but the data right now support only a limited opening in some parts of the country and, hence, a limited late spring/summer rebound in the economy.

21 November. 2016 The Inflation Threat from Wages is Rising (Publication Centre)

Last week, the Atlanta Fed updated its median hourly earnings series with new October data, showing wage growth accelerating to an eight-year high of 3.9%. That's a full percentage point higher than the increase in this measure of wages in the year to October 2015, and it follows a spring and summer during which wage growth appeared to be topping-out at just under 3½%.

17 October 2018 The Eurozone's Trade Surplus is Headed Down a Notch this Year (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's trade surplus rebounded slightly over the summer, rising to €16.6B in August from €12.6B in July, helped mainly by a 2.0% month-to- month jump in exports.

21 August 2017 The Peak in CPI Inflation Still Hasn't Been Reached Yet (Publication Centre)

After soaring in the Spring, inflation has slipped back in the Summer. July's consumer prices report, released while we were away last week, showed that CPI inflation held steady at 2.6% in July, one -tenth below the consensus and three tenths below May's year-to-date peak.

2 November. 2016 Brazil Industrial Output Remains Sluggish, but Q4 will be Better (Publication Centre)

Brazil's September industrial production report, released yesterday, confirmed the message from survey data that the sector stabilized towards the end of summer. Output rose 0.5 month-to-month, and August output was revised up by 0.3 percentage points.

19 Sept 2019 EZ Headline and Core Inflation to Rebound Firmly Into Year-End (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed CPI data for August confirmed that inflation in the Eurozone stayed subdued over the summer.

19 October 2018 Soft September Sales Set the Tone for Retail in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Retail sales fell back to earth in September, indicating that the pick-up in spending over the summer largely was a weather-related blip.

10 October 2017 German Manufacturing Continued to Boost the Economy in Q3 (Publication Centre)

German manufacturing snapped back at the end of summer. Industrial production jumped 2.6% month-to-month in August, pushing the year-over- year rate up to 4.7% from a revised 4.2% in July.

11 Nov. 2015 Strong Finish to Q3 for French Manufacturing to Boost GDP? (Publication Centre)

French industrial production data surprised to the upside yesterday. Output rose 0.1% month-to-month in September, a solid gain following an upwardly-revised 1.7% rise in August, and also higher than the consensus, forecast for a 0.4% fall. The details, however, were less upbeat than the headline. Transport equipment fell, as expected, following production being pushed forward ahead of the Summer holidays. But this story was overshadowed by a 22.5% month-to-month jump in oil refining-- included in manufacturing--as refineries resumed full production following maintenance over the summer.

11 October 2017 Hard Data Suggest German GDP Growth Slowed Slightly in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Germany's nominal external surplus rebounded smartly over the summer, but real net trade looks set to be a drag on Q3 GDP growth, again. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus increased to €21.6B in August from a revised €19.3B in July.

22 February 2017 The MXN Probably is Undervalued, but it Could Move Even Lower in Q2 (Publication Centre)

With the MXN up more than 7% since the low of 21.9 against the dollar in January, investors are pondering just how high the Mexican currency can go. We believe that the MXN will continue to hover around its recent range, 20.1-to-20.5, in the near term, but will come under pressure again as protectionist policies in the U.S. take real shape in the spring or summer.

10 April 2017 Inflation's Rise Likely Arrested in March by this Year's Later Easter (Publication Centre)

March's consumer price figures, released tomorrow, look set to show that inflation's ascent was kept in check by the later Easter this year compared to last. Nonetheless, CPI inflation will take big upward strides over the coming months, and it likely will exceed 3% by the summer.

07 August. 2015 EZ GDP likely rose 0.4% quarteron- quarter in Q2 due to Ne t Trade (Publication Centre)

This is the final report before your Eurozone correspondent dials down for the summer, and heads for the beach. Advance Q2 GDP data next week is the key release while we are away, with the latest Bloomberg consensus--published July 20th--looking for a 0.4% increase quarter-on-quarter. Everything we look at suggests the consensus is right on this one, with risks tilted to the upside due to strong net exports in Germany.

1 July. 2016 The MPC Likely Will Dash Expectations of Substantial Easing (Publication Centre)

Mark Carney's assertion that "...some monetary policy easing will likely be required over the summer" is a clear signal that an interest rate cut is in the pipeline. But easing likely will be modest, due to the much higher outlook for inflation following sterling's precipitous decline.

13 Mar. 2015 What Next For Oil Prices? Saudi Arabia Holds the Key (Publication Centre)

Straight-line extrapolations are always risky--nothing lasts forever--but if you allow us the indulgence, our first chart suggests that domestic U.S. oil production will breach 10M barrels per day by the summer.

13 October. 2016 EZ Industrial Production Rebounded Only Modestly in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday EZ industrial production report confirmed the message from advance country data that manufacturing rebounded towards the end of summer. Output, ex-construction, jumped 1.6% month-to-month in August, and the July data were revised up by 0.4 percentage points.

17 Apr. 2015 Core Inflation not yet slowing after energy price collapse (Publication Centre)

The plunge in gas prices since their peak last summer likely will exert modest downward pressure on core inflation by the end of this year, via reduced costs of production and distribution, but it probably is too soon to start looking for these effects now.

17 November 2017 Respite for Consumers from Price Rises will be Short-Lived (Publication Centre)

October's retail sales figures confirm that consumers have adopted a more cautious mindset since the summer, when retail sales increased at a faster rate than incomes.

15 May 2018 Autos Likely Constrained April Retail Sales, Core Trend is Gently Upwards (Publication Centre)

The story of U.S. retail sales since last summer is mostly a story about the impact of the hurricanes, Harvey in particular.

14 September 2018 A Slightly Confusing ECB Meeting, but No Change to the Key Message (Publication Centre)

The ECB's key message was unchanged yesterday. The main refinancing and deposit rates were maintained at zero and -0.4%, respectively, and they are expected "to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019."

13 September 2017 Labour Market Report to Show no Easing of the Real Wage Squeeze (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market report likely will show that employment continued to grow briskly over the summer, but that wage gains still are lagging well behind inflation.

14 Dec. 2015 Can Eurozone Equities Withstand Global Headwinds Next Year? (Publication Centre)

Barring a gigantic shock from the Fed this week--we expect a 25bp hike--Eurozone equities will end the year with a solid return for investors, who have been overweight. Total return of the MSCI EU ex-UK should come in around 10%, which compares to a likely flat return for the MSCI World, reflecting the boost from the ECB's QE driving out performance. Our first chart shows the index has been mainly lifted by consumer sector, healthcare and IT stocks, comfortably making up for weakness in materials and energy. The year has been a story of two halves, however, and global headwinds have intensified since the summer, partly offsetting the surge in the Q1 as markets celebrated the arrival of QE and negative interest rates.

17 October 2017 The rebound in EZ trade surplus is ruse (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report showed that the Eurozone's external surplus recovered ground over the summer, but we don't think the rebound will last long.

30 June. 2015 Slowing Aircraft Orders Holding Back Chicago PMI - No Hit to ISM (Publication Centre)

The seasonal adjustment problems which tend to drive up the national ISM manufacturing survey in late spring and summer are more or less absent from the Chicago PMI, which will be released today. As far as we can tell, the biggest short-term influence on the Chicago number is variations in the order flow for Boeing aircraft; the company moved its headquarters to the city from Seattle in 2001.

EZ Datanote: Inflation and Consumers Spending, France 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core hit by falling services inflation; spending boosted by longer summer sales.

Global Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A big leap towards zero by the summer.

9 Oct 2020 The Second Wave of Layoffs Will Emerge in September's PAYE Data (Publication Centre)

Next week's labour market report likely will show that job cuts accelerated again, after a lull in the summer.

8 Oct 2020 House Prices won't Remain at Current Levels, Unless the Treasury Intervenes (Publication Centre)

Data continue to show that the housing market ran hot over the summer, as buyers eager to change their lifestyles in response to Covid-19 rushed through purchases.

22 May 2017 What Does the Path to the Recession of 2019 Look Like? (Publication Centre)

In recent years only one event has made a material difference to the growth path of the U.S. economy, namely, the plunge in oil prices which began in the summer of 2014. The ensuing collapse in capital spending in the mining sector and everything connected to it, pulled GDP growth down from 2½% in both 2014 and 2015 to just 1.6% in 2016.

8 November 2017 The Period of Leverage-Driven Growth in House Prices is Over (Publication Centre)

Mortgage lender Halifax reported yesterday that the rate of increase in house prices has picked up since the summer.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The inventory-related slump in export demand nearly is over; industrial production will bounce back in the summer.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Homebuilders still wary, but construction activity will rise over the summer.

US Datanote: Existing Home Sales, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The last hit from the Covid shutdowns; expect a full rebound over the summer.

*June 2020 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The U.S. Reopening Will Not All Be Smooth...But The Economy Will Be Much Better By Summer's End

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pointing to zero CPI inflation by the summer.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A big leap towards zero by the summer.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: The rebound is consolidating; expected steady spring/summer sales.

7 September. 2016 Capex Rebounding in Q3, Except in the Housing Component (Publication Centre)

If you had asked us in the spring where the action would be in capital spending over the summer, we would have said that the housing component was the best bet. Right now, though, the opposite seems more likely, with housing likely to be the weakest component of capex.

7 September. 2016 How Will the U.K. Resolve the Immigration,Trade Dilemma? (Publication Centre)

Following the summer recess, the U.K. Government has turned to the unenviable task of weighing up how much economic pain to endure in order to reduce immigration. The Government's insistence that Brexit "must mean controls on the numbers of people who come to Britain from Europe" suggests it is prepared to sacrifice access to the single market in order to appease public opinion.

27 September 2017 Winter is Coming for the Mortgage Market (Publication Centre)

Figures yesterday from U.K. Finance--the new trade body that has subsumed the British Bankers' Association--showed that the mortgage market recovered over the summer.

7 Aug 2019 Will Tory Rebels Vote with the Opposition in a No-Confidence Vote? (Publication Centre)

According to Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, it is "almost inevitable" that Labour will table a no-confidence motion in the government next month, shortly after MPs return from the summer recess on September 3.

27 October 2017 Third Quarter Growth Should be Solid, Despite the Hurricanes (Publication Centre)

We expect today's first estimate of third quarter GDP growth to show that the economy expanded at a 2.4% annualized rate over the summer.

27 February 2018 The Q4 Surge in the Trade Deficit is set for a Substantial Reversal (Publication Centre)

The closer we look at the startling surge in imports in the fourth quarter, the more convinced we become that it was due in large part to a burst of inventory replacement following the late summer hurricanes.

22 October 2018 The EZ External Surplus is Being Boosted by Services Exports (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus rebounded over the summer, reversing its sharp decline at the start of Q3.

23 October 2017 The EZ's Current Account Surplus Rose in Q3, but the Trend is Falling (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus rebounded further over the summer.

3 October 2018 Are Higher Wages Squeezing EZ Manufacturing Margins? (Publication Centre)

Producer price inflation in the euro area almost surely peaked over the summer.

28 June 2019 Who Will get the Top Jobs in the EU, and Should Investors Care? (Publication Centre)

Last week's capsized European Council summit added to our suspicions that uncertainty over the EU's top jobs will linger over the summer.

30 August 2017 Six Reasons why a Soft Brexit now is more Likely than Ever (Publication Centre)

Six developments over the summer have increased the likelihood that the government will make concessions required to preserve unfettered access to the single market after formally leaving the EU in March 2019.

5 February 2018 The MPC Will Dampen Speculation that Rates will Rise in May (Publication Centre)

We doubt that the MPC will provide a strong signal on Thursday that interest rates need to rise again before the summer.

4 October 2018 Will the Consumer Carry the EZ Economy amid External Risks (Publication Centre)

The news-flow in the Eurozone was almost unequivocally bad over the summer.

5 Dec 2019 Would the Conservatives Really Run a Tight Fiscal Ship? (Publication Centre)

Over the summer, both Chancellor Javid and PM Johnson appeared to be repositioning the Conservatives, claiming that the era of austerity was over and that higher levels of spending and investment were justified.

31 July 2020 Every Employment Indicator is Continuing to Glow Bright Red (Publication Centre)

We remain concerned that huge job losses are imminent, slowing the economic recovery after a mid-summer spurt.

31 August 2017 Does the Corporate Borrowing Surge Signal a Capex Recovery? (Publication Centre)

The summer usually is a quiet time for business, but seemingly not for CFOs this year. Yesterday's money and credit figures from the Bank of England showed that borrowing by private non-financial corporations has rocketed. Net finance raised by PNFC's from all sources increased by £8.9B in July, compared to an average increase of just £2.5B in the previous 12 months.

Telegraph - House price growth jumps to highest since March despite weaker market post-Brexit vote (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Halifax House Price Index in December

BBC NEWS - Inflation surprise as computer game prices drop (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation Growth

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