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Search Results: 47
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47 matches for " spending growth":

4 July 2018 Rising Household Saving Likely will Keep Spending Growth Subdued (Publication Centre)

The economy would have ground to a halt last year had households not reduced their saving rate sharply.

27 June 2019 Orders, Trade and Inventory Data Suggest Q2 Growth Headed for 21⁄4% (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's raft of data had no net impact on our forecast for second quarter GDP growth, which we still think will be about 21⁄4%.

27 March 2019 All Set for a Rebound in German Consumption Growth in H1 (Publication Centre)

German retail and consumer sentiment data for March have been mixed this week, but broadly support our call that growth in consumption should pick up soon.

27 November 2018 What's the Risk of a Technical Recession in Germany (Publication Centre)

Last week's detailed Q3 GDP data in Germany verified that GDP fell 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, down from a 0.5% rise in Q2, a number which all but confirms the key story for the economy over the year as a whole.

26 Feb. 2016 The Foundations of the U.K. Recovery are Remarkably Fragile (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 was left unrevised, but that was the only nugge t of good news from yesterday's second GDP release. The expenditure breakdown hardly could have looked more troubling.

25 April 2018 Mortgage Demand Faltering in the Face of Higher Rates (Publication Centre)

Today brings new housing market data, in the form of the weekly applications numbers from the MBA. The weekly data are seasonally adjusted but are still very volatile, especially in the spring.

22 August 2017 Is the Worst Over for State and Local Government Spending? (Publication Centre)

Consumption and investment spending by state and local government accounts for just over 10% of the U.S. economy, making it more important than exports or consumers' spending on durable goods, and roughly equal to all business investment in equipment and intellectual property.

22 November 2018 Next Year's Fiscal Stimulus Is Secure, Despite the Poorer Borrowing Data (Publication Centre)

October's surprise jump in public borrowing is not a material setback for the Chancellor, who will stick to his new Budget plans for modest fiscal stimulus next year.

23 Oct 2019 The Richmond Fed Suggests the Worst is Over for the ISM, for now (Publication Centre)

The 17-point leap in the Richmond Fed index for October, reported yesterday, was startlingly large.

23 October 2018 China's Retail Sales Show that Tax Reductions were Badly Needed (Publication Centre)

China's September activity data, released at the end of last week, back up our claim that GDP growth weakened in Q3, on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

28 Aug 2019 China's Talk of Austerity Faces H2 Hurdles but it isn't Merely Rhetoric (Publication Centre)

China's finance minister Liu Kun provided his report on China's current fiscal situation to the legislature last Friday.

28 Nov 2019 Spare a Thank You for the Strong and Stable French Consumer (Publication Centre)

French consumers remained in great spirits midway through the fourth quarter. The headline INSEE consumer confidence index jumped to a 28-month high in November, from 104 in October, extending its v-shaped recovery from last year's plunge on the back of the yellow vest protests.

6 Dec 2019 Abenomics 2.0 this is not, 2020 GDP Growth will Slow Sharply (Publication Centre)

We have consistently flagged the likelihood that Japan's government would boost spending after the consumption tax hike was implemented.

6 March 2019 China's Fiscal Arithmetic Looks Stretched Deficit Yawning Wide (Publication Centre)

The main story to emerge from China's Economic Work Report is the extent of tax cuts, which on our calculations will leave a large funding hole.

7 March 2017 Can Italy's Economy Overcome Weak Real Wage Growth in 2017? (Publication Centre)

The Italian economy slowed at the end 2017, and it continues to underperform other major EZ economies. Real GDP rose 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, a bit slower than the 0.3% gain in Q3, pushing full-year growth up to a modest 1.0%. This compares poorly, though, with growth of 1.6% in the euro area as a whole.

7 November 2017 Car Sales are Falling Rapidly, with no End in Sight (Publication Centre)

The downturn in car sales is showing no sign of abating. Data released yesterday by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders showed that private registrations fell 10.1% year-over-year in October, much worse than the 6.6% average drop in the previous 12 months.

5 Dec 2019 Why We Aren't Panicking About India's Weaker Q3 GDP Print (Publication Centre)

India's headline GDP print for the third quarter was damning, with growth slowing further, to 4.5% year- over-year, from 5.0% in Q2.

4 Dec 2019 Net Trade will Hit Korea's Q4 GDP, Cancelling-out a Domestic Bounce (Publication Centre)

Korea's final GDP report for the third quarter confirmed the economy's growth slowdown to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, following the 1.0% bounce-back in Q2.

29 May 2019 Will Consumers Save Less this Year, in Order to Spend More (Publication Centre)

While businesses--and farmers--fret over the damage already wrought by the trade war with China and the further pain to come, consumers are remarkably happy.

3 Dec 2019 Is the Caixin Manufacturing PMI Uptrend Justified (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs put in a better performance in November, with the official gauge ticking up to 50.2 in November, from 49.3 in October, and the Caixin measure little changed, at 51.8, up from 51.7.

30 May 2019 The German Labour Market Finally Realises that Growth has Slowed (Publication Centre)

Reporting on the German labour market has been like watching paint dry in this expansion, but yesterday's data were a stark exception to this rule.

31 July 2018 Money and Credit Data Cast Doubt Over the Viability of Q2's Upturn (Publication Centre)

June's money and credit figures showed that the economy still doesn't have much zing, even though lending has picked up since Q1.

21 November 2018 October Retail Sales Cast Doubt on Consumers' Resilience (Publication Centre)

October's retail sales figures, published last Thursday, extended the month-long run of near consistent downside data surprises.

2 July 2018 Construction Activity is Accelerating, it's not Just Hurricane Repairs (Publication Centre)

Perhaps the single strongest U.S. economic data series in recent months has been construction spending, which has risen by more than 1%, month-to-month, in four of the past five months.

12 Sept 2019 Is Britain Heading for A Consumer Spending Slowdown in 2020 (Publication Centre)

Households have been a rock of stability over the last two years, increasing their real spending at a steady rate of 1.8% year-over-year, while the rest of the economy collectively has ground to a halt.

12 December 2018 China's Monetary Conditions are Still Tightening (Publication Centre)

China's M2 growth stabilised in November, at 8.0% year-over-year, matching the October rate.

1 November. 2016 The Credit-Driven Consumer Recovery is Reaching its Limits (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, September's money supply data suggest that the economy is ebullient, quickly recovering from the shock referendum result. Year-over-year growth in notes and coins in circulation has accelerated to its highest rate since June 2002.

13 Nov 2019 Will Politicians in Spain Face up to Reality This Time Around? (Publication Centre)

The political situation in Spain remains an odd example of how complete gridlock can be a source of relative stability.

15 October 2018 The Stock Market Wobble isn't Enough to Deter the Fed (Publication Centre)

A 45bp rise in long-term interest rates--the increase between mid-August and last week's peak--ought to depress stock prices, other things equal.

2 Dec 2019 Further Increase in Japanese Unemployment in Store (Publication Centre)

Japan's jobless rate was unchanged, at 2.4% in October, as the market took a breather after September's job losses.

19 Nov 2019 Italian GDP Growth is Rebounding, but at a Painfully Slow Pace (Publication Centre)

Italy's economy is still bumping along the bottom, after emerging from recession in the middle of last year.

16 October 2018 Will Fiscal Stimulus Boost Eurozone GDP growth in 2019 (Publication Centre)

The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area was a macroeconomic horror story

16 July 2019 No End in Sight Yet to the Industrial Consumer Bifurcation (Publication Centre)

Today's brings the June retail sales and industrial production reports, after which we'll update our second quarter GDP forecast.

TELEGRAPH - Blistering US spending growth puts Fed on track for September rate hike (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on US Consumer Spending

19 October. 2016 Labour Data to Point to Slower Household Spending Growth Ahead (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market figures likely will cast doubt over the sustainability of strong growth in household spending. Growth in the three-month average level of employment likely weakened in August, from July's impressive 1.9% year-over-year rate.

2 Jan 2020 Bad Omens for Q4 Consumers' Spending Growth in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Data on EZ consumption were soft while we were enjoying our Christmas break. The advance EC consumer confidence index slipped to a three-year low of -8.1 in December, from -7.2 in November, breaking its recent tight range.

29 September 2016 Consumers' Spending Growth in Germany is Slowing, Modestly (Publication Centre)

Survey data in the Eurozone were mixed yesterday. In Germany, the advance GfK consumer sentiment index slipped to 10.0 in October, from 10.2 in September, marginally below consensus forecasts. The details, reported for September, also were soft.

25 October. 2016 Consumers Confidence is High, but Expect an October Correction (Publication Centre)

Recent consumer confidence numbers have been strong enough that we don't need to see any further increase. The expectations components of both the Michigan and Conference Board surveys are consistent with real spending growth of 21⁄2-to- 3%, which is about the best we can expect when real income growth, after tax, is trending at about 21⁄2%.

24 Mar. 2016 EZ Consumers' Spending Is Slowing, but Won't Collapse (Publication Centre)

All the evidence indicates that growth in Eurozone consumers' spending is slowing. We think data today will show that the advance GfK consumer sentiment index in Germany was unchanged at 9.5 in April, but the headline index does not correlate well with spending. The "business expectations" index is better, and while it likely will increase slightly, our first chart shows that it continues to signal a slowdown in consumers' spending growth.

24 July. 2015 Retail Sales on Track for New High, Despite Dip in Sentiment (Publication Centre)

Advance Eurozone consumer sentiment fell disappointingly to -7.1 in July, from -5.6 in June, but it is consistent with a solid trend in retail sales growth. Household consumption in the zone has surged in the last four quarters, and a modest loss of momentum in Q3 and Q4 is a reasonable bet. But we see little risk of a sharp slowdown in the shor t run, and the trend in spending growth should stabilize at an annualised 1.5% this year.

3 Mar. 2015 Consumption and Construction Data Point to Sluggish Q1 GDP (Publication Centre)

Barring some sort of miracle, or substantial upward revision to prior data--it happens--first quarter consumption spending growth is unlikely to reach 3%, despite the robust 0.3% gain reported yesterday for January. Part of the problem is a basis effect.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spending growth is slowing; expect hefty Q3 GDP forecast markdowns.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spending growth slowing in Q4, but it's only a correction.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, November and New Home Sales, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Housing still strong, but confidence data point to slowing spending growth.

US Datanote: Personal Income and Spending, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the drop in income, but the softening in spending growth is real.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spending growth is set to slow in Q4.

19 August. 2015 Colombia's Domestic Economy is Resilient, But Real Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

The Colombian economy has been able to grow this year despite the plunge in oil prices since the middle of 2014. Gains in consumers' spending and investment have offset part of the hit from falling exports. But private spending growth, nonetheless, slowed considerably during the first few months of the year, as shown in our char t below, in part due to rising prices for imported goods after the depreciation of the COP, as well as broad-based concerns over the state of the economy.

Consistently Right

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