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26 January 2017 GDP Growth Remained Brisk in Q4, but Headwinds are Building (Publication Centre)

Today's preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP likely will show that the Brexit vote has not caused the economy to slow yet. But growth at the end of last year appears to have relied excessively on household spending, which has been increasingly financed by debt. GDP growth likely will slow decisively in Q1 as the squeeze on households' real incomes intensifies.

26 June 2018 The German Economy is No Longer Firing on All Cylinders (Publication Centre)

The verdict from the German business surveys is in; economic growth probably slowed further in Q2.

26 October 2018 It Would Take a Lot to Turn the ECB Away from Ending QE in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The ECB kept its cool yesterday, at the headline level, amid crashing stock markets, volatile BTPs and souring economic data.

27 March 2019 All Set for a Rebound in German Consumption Growth in H1 (Publication Centre)

German retail and consumer sentiment data for March have been mixed this week, but broadly support our call that growth in consumption should pick up soon.

25 May 2017 Is it Time to Tell a Less Upbeat Story on the Eurozone Consumer? (Publication Centre)

Markets cheered soaring business surveys in the Eurozone earlier this week, and recent consumer sentiment data also have been cause for celebration. The advance GfK consumer confidence index in Germany rose to a record high of 10.4 in June, from 10.2 in May.

25 August 2017 Sizzling Business Sentiment in France Signals Firm Q3 GDP (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of French business surveys contains hundreds of indicators, but its central story is comfortably simple.

24 May 2018 No Relief to Markets from the Eurozone PMIs in May (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data in the Eurozone did little to calm investors' nerves amid rising political uncertainty in Italy and tremors in emerging markets.

24 May 2019 A Little bit of Everything in the May EZ Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of survey data were a mixed bag. The composite EZ PMI edged higher in May to 51.6, from 51.5 in April, but the details were less upbeat, and also slightly confusing.

24 May 2019 Mexican Retail Sector is Stabilizing Despite Tight Financial Conditions (Publication Centre)

Mexico's retail sector is finally improving, following a grim second half last year.

27 September 2018 What to Expect From Today's 2019 Budget Headlines in Italy (Publication Centre)

Today is a busy day in the Eurozone economic calendar, but we suspect that markets mainly will focus on the details of Italy's 2019 budget.

28 August 2018 Germany's Economy is Resilient in the Face of External Risks (Publication Centre)

Friday's detailed GDP data in Germany confirm that the euro area's largest economy performed strongly in the second quarter.

5 March 2018 Consumers' Spending in Germany Probably will Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data in Germany suggest that households had a slow start to the year.

8 December 2017 Robust Jobs Data Will Emphasize the Labor Market's Tightness (Publication Centre)

We expect to see a 180K increase in November payrolls

8 January 2019 A Story for Everyone in Confusing Q4 German Manufacturing Data (Publication Centre)

The German economy's engine room continues to stutter.

9 November 2018 The Fed is Still on Course to Hike in December no Mention of Stocks (Publication Centre)

Convention dictates that we lead with yesterday's Fed meeting, but it's hard to argue that it really deserves top billing.

5 June 2018 Eurozone Investors Haven't Been this Gloomy Since 2012 (Publication Centre)

If you were looking just at investor sentiment in the Eurozone, you would conclude that the economy is in recession.

4 March 2019 Is the Slowdown in Money Growth an Ominous Sign (Publication Centre)

January's money supply figures continued the nerve-jangling flow of data on the economy's momentum.

28 January 2019 The IFO Piles the Pressure on an Already Weak German Economy (Publication Centre)

Judging by the survey data, German business sentiment remained depressed at the start of the year.

28 March 2019 Further Signs that Negative Rates are Here to Stay in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Bond yields in the Eurozone took another leg lower yesterday.

4 July 2018 Household Balance Sheets in the Eurozone are in Good Shape (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that Momentum in the EZ retail sector stumbled through middle of Q2.

24 August 2018 The Glass is Half-Full in the Eurozone PMI Data for August (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI data in the Eurozone economy were a mixed bag.

22 June 2018 Survey Data Suggest that French Manufacturing will Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of French business sentiment data suggest that confidence in the industrial sector was a little stronger than expected in Q2.

12 March 2019 We Need to Talk a Bit about Revisions to German Construction (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production numbers in Germany were similar to Friday's confusing new orders data.

10 February 2017 Can we Explain Rising Consumer Confidence? What does it Mean? (Publication Centre)

We have questioned the reliability of the recent consumer confidence numbers, and are very skeptical of their signal that spending is set to accelerate rapidly, but we see no real sign yet of any significant reversal of the post-election spike.

16 July 2018 Will Eurozone Investment Take a Hit from the Global Trade Conflict? (Publication Centre)

Last week's packed political agenda in Europe confirmed that political relations between the U.S. and the major Eurozone economies remain difficult.

11 January 2018 Will France Reap the Rewards of Supply-Side Reforms in 2018? (Publication Centre)

Momentum in French manufacturing eased slightly in November, but the setback was modest. Industrial production dipped 0.5% month-to-month, only partially reversing the revised 1.7% jump in October.

20 June 2019 A Slowdown in Construction Will Weigh on EZ GDP Growth in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data added further evidence that GDP growth in the EZ will slow in Q2.

19 September 2017 Colombia's Economy Finally Hits Bottom, but Recovery will be Slow (Publication Centre)

Colombian activity data released this last week were upbeat, better than we expected, showing a significant pickup in manufacturing output and improving retail sales. Retail sales rose 3.1% year- over-year, after a modest 1.0% increase in June.

19 December 2018 The Eurozone's German Engine Room is Slowing Steadily (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO data in Germany heaped more misery on the Eurozone economy.

23 September 2016 French Manufacturing Confidence Rebounds Solidly in September (Publication Centre)

French manufacturers recovered their optimism towards the end of Q3. The headline INSEE manufacturing sentiment index rose to 103 in September, from 101 in August, and the composite business confidence gauge also increased. A rebound in transport equipment firms' own production expectations was the key driver of the recovery.

24 Mar. 2016 EZ Consumers' Spending Is Slowing, but Won't Collapse (Publication Centre)

All the evidence indicates that growth in Eurozone consumers' spending is slowing. We think data today will show that the advance GfK consumer sentiment index in Germany was unchanged at 9.5 in April, but the headline index does not correlate well with spending. The "business expectations" index is better, and while it likely will increase slightly, our first chart shows that it continues to signal a slowdown in consumers' spending growth.

23 November 2017 Is EZ Consumption on Track for Grand Finish to 2017? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance consumer sentiment index in the Eurozone confirmed the upside risks for consumers' spending in Q4. The headline index rose to a 17- year high of +0.1 in November, from -1.0 in October.

21 Dec. 2015 Paris Attacks Unlikely to Dent Q4 French GDP Growth Severely (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing confidence in France remained resilient in the fourth quarter. The INSEE sentiment index rose to 103 in December from 102 in November, lifted by a jump in firms' own production expectations, and a small increase in the new orders-to-inventory ratio. We think production will increase in Q4, lifted by energy output, but the recent jump in the year-over-year rate is unlikely to be sustained, even if we factor in the marginal increase in new orders this month.

28 November. 2016 Household Consumption in France Will Recover Lost Ground in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The outlook for French consumers' spending improved this month, at the margin. The headline consumer sentiment index was unchanged at 98 in November, but most forward-looking indicators rose. Consumers' spending in was flat in Q2 and Q3, following a 1.1% jump in the first quarter.

22 Apr. 2015 Sustained job gains are key to Eurozone consumers sentiment (Publication Centre)

Advance April consumer survey data will likely confirm that households remain the standout driver of the cyclical recovery in the euro area. We think the headline EC consumer sentiment index rose to -1.0 in April from -3.7 in March.

9 January 2017 The Eurozone Economy Likely Finished 2016 With a Bang (Publication Centre)

The slew of EZ economic data on Friday supports our view that the economy ended 2016. The Commission's economic sentiment index jumped to 107.8 in December from a revised 106.6 in November. The headline strength was due to a big increase in "business climate indicator" and higher consumer sentiment. In individual countries, solid numbers for German construction and French services sentiment were the stand-out details.

17 March 2017 February's Manufacturing Data Flattered by Warm Weather? (Publication Centre)

The latest survey evidence strongly supports our view that momentum is building in the industrial economy, but the official production data continue to lag. Yesterday's March Philly Fed survey was remarkably strong, with the correction in the headline sentiment index -- inevitable, after February's 33-year high -- masking increases in all the subindexes.

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hold the press; we have an increase in the EC sentiment index.

30 March 2017 How will French Consumers React to Lower Real Wage Growth? (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators for consumers' spending in France are sending conflicting signals. Survey data suggest that households are in a spendthrift mood. Data yesterday showed that the headline consumer sentiment index was unchanged in March at 100, the cycle high.

30 Apr. 2015 Real M1 Growth Points to Strengthening Cyclical Recovery (Publication Centre)

Survey and money supply data remain consistent with an improving Eurozone economy. Yesterday's EC sentiment index fell to 103.7 in April, from 103.9 in March, due to weakness in France and Germany, but it is consistent with GDP growth of about 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2.

29 September 2016 Consumers' Spending Growth in Germany is Slowing, Modestly (Publication Centre)

Survey data in the Eurozone were mixed yesterday. In Germany, the advance GfK consumer sentiment index slipped to 10.0 in October, from 10.2 in September, marginally below consensus forecasts. The details, reported for September, also were soft.

29 Oct. 2015 EZ Consumers Remain Upbeat, but Downside Risks in Germany (Publication Centre)

Consumer sentiment data yesterday from the major economies were mixed, signalling that support to Eurozone GDP growth from surging German household consumption is waning. The key "business outlook" index--which correlates best with spending--plunged to a 30-month low in October, while the advance GfK sentiment index dipped to 9.4 in November from 9.6 in October. We see little signs in retail sales data of slowing momentum, and also think consumers' spending rebounded in Q3. But our first chart shows that the fall in the GfK index implies clear downside risks in coming quarters.

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