Search Results: 46
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.
Sorry, but our website is best viewed on a device with a screen width greater than 320px. You can contact us at: email@example.com.
46 matches for " richmond fed":
In one line: Philly Fed soars; Empire State steady; Richmond Fed tanks; which to believe?
The 17-point leap in the Richmond Fed index for October, reported yesterday, was startlingly large.
Yesterday's data were mixed, though disappointment over the weakening in the Richmond Fed survey should be tempered by a quick look at the history, shown in our first chart.
In one line: Both better than expected, but downside risk is not over.
In one line: Noisy, but the trend seems to have levelled off; signals upside potential for October ISM.
In one line: Grim all round.
All the regional PMIs and Fed business surveys are volatile in the short-term, so observations for single months need to be viewed with due skepticism.
We were happy to see upside surprises from both sides of the domestic economy yesterday, but we doubt that the August readings from both the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey and the Richmond Fed business survey can hold.
Of all the regional Fed and PMI business surveys, the Richmond Fed index appears to be the most sensitive to U.S. trade policy.
We were terrified by the plunge in the ISM manufacturing export orders index in August and September, which appeared to point to a 2008-style meltdown in trade flows.
Forecasting the health insurance component of the CPI is a mug's game, so you'll look in vain for hard projections in this note.
The rate of growth of Covid-19 cases outside China appears to have peaked, for now, but we can't yet have any confidence that this represents a definitive shift in the progress of the epidemic.
If you're looking for points of light in the economy over the next few months, the housing market is a good place to start.
Today's wave of data will bring new information on the industrial sector, consumers, the labor market, and housing, as well as revisions to the third quarter GDP numbers.
The weaker is the economy over the next few months, the more likely it is that Mr. Trump blinks and removes some--perhaps even all--the tariffs on Chinese imports.
The gaps in the third quarter GDP data are still quite large, with no numbers yet for September international trade or the public sector, but we're now thinking that growth likely was less than 11⁄2%.
The spread of the Covid-19 virus remains the key issue for markets, which were deeply unhappy yesterday at reports of new cases in Austria, Spain and Switzerland, all of which appear to be connected to the cluster in northern Italy.
While businesses--and farmers--fret over the damage already wrought by the trade war with China and the further pain to come, consumers are remarkably happy.
After a week--yes, a whole week!--with no significant new developments in the trade war with China--it's worth stepping back and asking a couple of fundamental questions, which might give us some clues as to what will happen over the months ahead.
Yesterday's FOMC , announcing a unanimous vote for no change in the funds rate, is almost identical to December's.
It's a myth that the 10-ye ar decline in the unemployment rate has not driven up the pace of wage growth.
The substantial gap between the key manufacturing surveys for the U.S. and China, relative to their long-term relationship, likely narrowed a bit in December.
We are fundamentally quite bullish on the housing market, given the 100bp drop in mortgage rates over the past six months and the continued strength of the labor market, but today's May new home sales report likely will be unexciting.
Core durable goods orders in recent months have been much less terrible than implied by both the ISM and Markit manufacturing surveys.
It seems reasonable to think that manufacturing should be doing better in the U.S. than other major economies.
The Fed will do nothing to the funds rate or its balance sheet expansion program today.
The Fed will soon have to step in to try to put a firebreak in the stock market.
The sluggishness of existing home sales in recent months, as exemplified by yesterday's report of a small dip in June, is due entirely to a sharp drop in the number of cash buyers.
The spike in the May core CPI, and its likely echo in the core PCE, won't stop the Fed easing at the end of this month.
We're reasonably happy with the idea that business sentiment is stabilizing, albeit at a low level, but that does not mean that all the downside risk to economic growth is over.
In recent client meetings the first and last topic of conversation has been the market implications of the possible departure of President Trump from office.
Evidence in support of our view that the U.S. industrial slowdown is ending continues to mount, though nothing is yet definitive and the re-escalation of the trade war is a threat of uncertain magnitude to the incipient upturn.
We can see no hard evidence, yet, that the expanding trade war with China and other U.S. trading partners is hitting business investment.
The outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 summit was as good as we expected.
We expect to see a 70K increase in October payrolls today.
The obsession of markets and the media with the industrial sector means that today's ISM manufacturing survey will be scrutinized far more closely than is justified by its real importance.
The New York Fed tweeted yesterday that "Housing market fundamentals appear strong.
We have been pleasantly surprised by the recent Redbook chainstore sales numbers.
The path of new home sales over the past couple of years has followed the mortgage applications numbers quite closely.
The rational thing to do when the price of a consumer good you are considering buying is thought likely to rise sharply in the near future is to buy it now, provided that the opportunity cost of the purchase--the interest income foregone on the cash, or the interest charged if you finance the purchase with credit--is less than the expected increase in the price.
Yesterday's stock market bloodbath stands in contrast to the U.S. economic data, most of which so far show no impact from the Covid-19 outbreak.
Core durable goods orders have not weakened as much as implied by the ISM manufacturing survey, as our first chart shows, but it is risky to assume this situation persists.
The monthly new home sales numbers are so volatile that just about anything can happen in any given month.
After the strong Philly Fed survey was released last week, we argued that the regional economy likely was outperforming because of its relatively low dependence on exports, making it less vulnerable to the trade war.
As we reach our deadline--4pm eastern time--media reports indicate that a debt ceiling agreement is close.
New home sales surprised to the upside in May, rising 6.7% to 689K, a six-month high.
pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research