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25 matches for " richmond fed":
In one line: Philly Fed soars; Empire State steady; Richmond Fed tanks; which to believe?
Yesterday's data were mixed, though disappointment over the weakening in the Richmond Fed survey should be tempered by a quick look at the history, shown in our first chart.
All the regional PMIs and Fed business surveys are volatile in the short-term, so observations for single months need to be viewed with due skepticism.
In one line: Grim all round.
In one line: Both better than expected, but downside risk is not over.
We were happy to see upside surprises from both sides of the domestic economy yesterday, but we doubt that the August readings from both the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey and the Richmond Fed business survey can hold.
Of all the regional Fed and PMI business surveys, the Richmond Fed index appears to be the most sensitive to U.S. trade policy.
New home sales surprised to the upside in May, rising 6.7% to 689K, a six-month high.
The path of new home sales over the past couple of years has followed the mortgage applications numbers quite closely.
We are fundamentally quite bullish on the housing market, given the 100bp drop in mortgage rates over the past six months and the continued strength of the labor market, but today's May new home sales report likely will be unexciting.
The rational thing to do when the price of a consumer good you are considering buying is thought likely to rise sharply in the near future is to buy it now, provided that the opportunity cost of the purchase--the interest income foregone on the cash, or the interest charged if you finance the purchase with credit--is less than the expected increase in the price.
After a week--yes, a whole week!--with no significant new developments in the trade war with China--it's worth stepping back and asking a couple of fundamental questions, which might give us some clues as to what will happen over the months ahead.
The sluggishness of existing home sales in recent months, as exemplified by yesterday's report of a small dip in June, is due entirely to a sharp drop in the number of cash buyers.
While businesses--and farmers--fret over the damage already wrought by the trade war with China and the further pain to come, consumers are remarkably happy.
It seems reasonable to think that manufacturing should be doing better in the U.S. than other major economies.
If you're looking for points of light in the economy over the next few months, the housing market is a good place to start.
The New York Fed tweeted yesterday that "Housing market fundamentals appear strong.
We can see no hard evidence, yet, that the expanding trade war with China and other U.S. trading partners is hitting business investment.
The obsession of markets and the media with the industrial sector means that today's ISM manufacturing survey will be scrutinized far more closely than is justified by its real importance.
The outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 summit was as good as we expected.
Evidence in support of our view that the U.S. industrial slowdown is ending continues to mount, though nothing is yet definitive and the re-escalation of the trade war is a threat of uncertain magnitude to the incipient upturn.
The spike in the May core CPI, and its likely echo in the core PCE, won't stop the Fed easing at the end of this month.
As we reach our deadline--4pm eastern time--media reports indicate that a debt ceiling agreement is close.
We have been pleasantly surprised by the recent Redbook chainstore sales numbers.
The monthly new home sales numbers are so volatile that just about anything can happen in any given month.
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