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28 July 2020 Restaurants are Not as Full as OpenTable Data Suggest (Publication Centre)

Tracking the consumer services sector has become more important since Covid-19, as it was flattened by the lockdown in Q2 and it might prove to be an incubator of new infections, if it becomes too busy.

27 May 2020 The Jump in Consumers' Inflation Expectations Doesn't Matter (Publication Centre)

Don't be alarmed by the second straight jump in consumers' inflation expectations, captured by the Conference Board's May survey, reported yesterday.

27 Mar 2020 Jobless Claims Crystallize the Covid Disaster, More Pain to Come (Publication Centre)

The speculation is over: 3.283 million people filed a new claim for unemployment benefits last week, nearly double the 1.7M consensus forecast, which looked much too low.

26 May 2020 What are High Frequency Data telling us about the EZ Recovey (Publication Centre)

The official data lag developments in the real economy even at the best of times, but on this occasion the gap has turned into a chasm.

29 Apr 2020 The Expansion Ended in Q1, but Q2 will be Much Worse (Publication Centre)

We expect to learn today that first quarter GDP fell at a 4.3% annualized rate, but the margin of error here is bigger than usual. Under normal circumstances we're disappointed if our quarterly GDP estimate is out by more than a few tenths, but this time around, the uncertainties are huge. Anywhere between -2% and -6% wouldn't be a big surprise.

30 Apr 2020 The Fed is Doing all it Can (Publication Centre)

The Fed's statement yesterday was unsurprising, acknowledging a "sharp" decline in economic activity and a significant tightening of financial conditions, which has "impaired the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses."

30 June 2020 Case Growth Might be Starting to Slow in Arizona, Others Later (Publication Centre)

It's possible that first hints of better news ahead in the Covid surge in the South and West are beginning to emerge in the data.

30 Apr 2020 Zero CPI Inflation in the Summer Won't Become Entrenched (Publication Centre)

Britain now looks set to flirt with deflation in the summer.

26 May 2020 Reopening Risks Overstated by Hugely Increased Testing (Publication Centre)

The closer we look at the data, the less concerned we are at the painfully slow decline in the number of new daily confirmed Covid-19 cases.

3 Feb 2020 Some Hopeful Signs are Emerging in the Coronavirus Data (Publication Centre)

The number of coronavirus cases continues to increase, but we're expecting to see signs that the number of new cases is peaking within the next two to three weeks.

26 Mar 2020 CPI Inflation to Slide Well Below 1% in the Summer (Publication Centre)

New BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will be reaching for his letter-writing pen soon, to explain to the Chancellor why CPI inflation is more than one percentage point below the 2% target.

24 Sept 2020 Near-Real-Time Data Signal Fading Consumer Services Activity (Publication Centre)

Business surveys released this week suggest the economic recovery decelerated in early September.

23 Mar 2020 Brace for an Unprecedented Slump in the Composite PMI (Publication Centre)

The drop in the flash composite PMI in March will be one for the record books, unfortunately. We look for an unprecedented drop to 43.0, from 53.3 in February, which would undershoot the 45.0 consensus and signal clearly that a deep recession is underway.

23 June 2020 Last Week's "Black Friday" in Colombia will Boost Covid Cases (Publication Centre)

Recent data in Colombia have confirmed that virus containment measures caused much bigger declines in activity in early Q2 than initially expected.

25 June 2020 A Mixed Early Picture of Unlock 1.0 in India, Downside Risks Prevail (Publication Centre)

Some normality has returned in India, more than three weeks from the end of the nationwide lockdown and the start of "Unlock 1.0" on June 1.

25 Mar 2020 EZ Recession Confirmed, but how Long will the Slump Last (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's March PMIs confirmed that governments' actions to contain the Covid-19 outbreak dealt a hammer blow to the economy at the end of Q1.

25 Sept 2020 The New Job Support Scheme Won't Work as Intended (Publication Centre)

We doubt that the new Job Support Scheme, announced by the Chancellor yesterday, will hold back the tide of redundancies over the coming months.

25 Mar 2020 Surveys Confirm the Services Meltdown, Industry Better, for Now (Publication Centre)

The huge drop in the March Markit services PMI, reported yesterday, and the modest dip in the manufacturing index, are the first national business survey data to capture the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak.

25 Mar 2020 GDP Likely is Falling Much Faster than Even the Gloomy PMIs Imply (Publication Centre)

Even the record-breaking slump in Markit's composite PMI probably understates the hit to economic activity from Covid-19 and the emergency measures to slow its spread.

30 June 2020 Covid-19 has had a Limited Impact on German Core inflation, for Now (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance CPI data in Germany suggest that EZ inflation is now rebounding slightly.

30 June 2020 Spending in Japan is Stabilising, a Proper Recovery is a Long Way Off (Publication Centre)

Retail sales in Japan rose modestly in May, after collapsing in March and April, as the government tried to put a lid on the country's Covid-19 outbreak.

7 Jan 2020 Oil Prices haven't Risen Enough to Disturb Consumers, Yet (Publication Centre)

The jump in oil prices over the past two trading days eventually will lift retail gasoline prices by about 35 cents per gallon, or 131⁄2%.

6 July 2020 The EZ PMIs are Still Improving, but that Doesn't Tell us Much (Publication Centre)

Friday's final June PMI data confirmed the survey's recovery through Q2. The composite index edged higher to 48.5, from 31.9 in May, extending its rebound from a low of just 13.6 in April.

6 July 2020 June Likely is the Payroll High-Water Mark, as the Second Wave Spreads (Publication Centre)

Let's get straight to the point: It's very unlikely that July's payroll numbers will be as good as June's. Too many direct and indirect indicators of employment and broader economic activity are now moving in the wrong direction.

7 July 2020 The Prospects for a Robust Q3 Rebound in India are Diminishing (Publication Centre)

India's services PMI for June underscores the half-hearted nature of Unlock 1.0, with the daily number of new cases of Covid-19 still rocketing.

7 July 2020 Don't Mistake Pent-up Demand for a Genuinely Strong Recovery (Publication Centre)

The next couple of months likely will see some activity data rebound to close to pre-Covid levels, fuelling hopes of a V-shaped recovery.

9 June 2020 Assessing the Magnitude of April's Collapse in GDP (Publication Centre)

April's GDP report probably will be the worst any of us will see in our lifetime.

8 June 2020 Payrolls Set to Rise Again in June, but Don't Expect a Quick Full Recovery (Publication Centre)

The single most surprising U.S. economic report ever published likely is explained very simply: We know a great deal about the numbers of people losing jobs, but not much about people finding jobs.

7 March 2018 Will Snow Disruption Freeze the MPC in its Tracks? (Publication Centre)

Last week's heavy snowfall, which blighted the entire country, will depress GDP growth in Q1, making it harder for the MPC to read the economy.

6 Aug 2020 The Recovery will Decelerate Sharply in the Autumn (Publication Centre)

A range of indicators show that the pace of the economic recovery shifted up a gear in July, when all shops were open for the entire month, and most consumer services providers finally were permitted to reopen.

5 May 2020 Core Inflation is Set to Fall, but not Every Component will Drop (Publication Centre)

We're very comfortable with the idea that the coronavirus is a broad deflationary shock to the U.S. economy.

31 July 2020 Q3 Growth Could be as High as 25%, but Payrolls won't Play Along (Publication Centre)

The only significant surprise in the terrible second quarter GDP numbers was the 2.7% increase in government spending, led by near-40% leap in the federal nondefense component.

31 July 2020 Every Employment Indicator is Continuing to Glow Bright Red (Publication Centre)

We remain concerned that huge job losses are imminent, slowing the economic recovery after a mid-summer spurt.

31 July 2020 Covid-19 Brought Mexico's Economy to its Knees, and the Outlook is Grim (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of Q2 GDP in Mexico confirmed that the economy has been under severe stress in recent months.

31 Mar 2020 Business and Consumer Confidence are Cratering, Further Falls Ahead (Publication Centre)

A pair of closely-watched reports today will confirm that business and consumer confidence is tanking in the face of the coronavirus outbreak.

4 Mar 2020 Pulling Down our Economic Forecasts Due to the Coronavirus (Publication Centre)

We are revising down our forecasts for quarteron-quarter GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 to 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, from 0.4% in both quarters previously, to account for the likely impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

5 May 2020 Chile Shows First Signs of the Covid-19 Hit, More Pain to Come (Publication Centre)

The recent March economic activity reports for Chile have been terrible, showing the first signs of the Covid-19 shock, and worse is to come.

4 Sep 2020 Chile's Central Bank to Keep Rates on Hold for the Foreseeable Future (Publication Centre)

Recent hard data have confirmed the severe shock from Corona to the Chilean economy in Q2.

31 August 2017 Inflation Pressures in the Eurozone are Responding to Robust Growth (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in the Eurozone probably firmed slightly in August. Data yesterday showed that inflation in Germany and Spain rose by 0.1 percentage points to 1.8% and 1.6% year-over-year respectively, and we are also pencilling-in an increase in French inflation today, ahead of the aggregate EZ report.

22 May 2020 A Second Covid Wave would be Nothing Like as Bad as the First (Publication Centre)

We are hearing a great deal about the threat of a second wave of Covid-19 infections, caused either by the reopening of the economy, or the arrival of cooler weather in the fall, or both.

15 July 2020 Sluggish Initial Virus Response to Blame for May's Meagre GDP Rise (Publication Centre)

The costs of the government's failure to lock down quickly in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, ultimately necessitating long-lasting restrictions, were visible in May's GDP figures.

15 Apr 2020 Brace for Grim March Retail Sales and IP Reports, with Worse to Come (Publication Centre)

Today brings a wave of data which will help analysts narrow their estimates for first quarter GDP growth, and will offer some clues, albeit limited, about the early part of the second quarter.

14 May 2020 Korea's Stable Unemployment Rate Belies the Ongoing Virus Hit to Jobs (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate was unchanged in April, at 3.8%, beating even our below-consensus forecast for only a minor uptick, to 3.9%.

15 June 2018 May's Surge in Retail Sales is Just a Weather-Related Blip (Publication Centre)

The trend in retail sales no longer looks quite so flat, following yesterday's May report. The level of sales volumes in April was revised up by 0.3%.

15 June 2020 Korea's Unemployment Rate will Surpass the Financial Crisis Peak (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate rose faster than expected in May, jumping to 4.5%, from 3.8% in April. We've been arguing for some time that the delayed impact of the economic growth slowdown from late- 2017 to early-2019 would eventually push the jobless rate to the mid-4% level this year; the sudden stop caused by Covid-19 merely sped up this process.

15 Sept 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Fell to a Near- Zero Rate in August (Publication Centre)

August's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, is harder to forecast than usual, given high uncertainty regarding the impact of the cut in VAT for the hospitality sector, as well as the consequences of the ONS' decision to resume collecting data from physical stores.

15 May 2020 Food Service, Autos and Gas Drops Signal Downside Retail Sales Risk (Publication Centre)

Our current base-case forecast for the second quarter is a 30% annualized drop in GDP, based on our assessment of the hit to discretionary spending by both businesses and consumers.

15 May 2019 Q2 Consumption on Course for 3%, Despite Auto Drag on April Retailing (Publication Centre)

The gap between the official measure of the rate of growth of core retail sales and the Redbook chainstore sales numbers remains bafflingly huge, but we have no specific reason to expect it to narrow substantially with the release of the April report today.

13 Aug 2020 The Fastest Part of the Recovery in GDP Already Lies in the Past (Publication Centre)

The U.K. economy underperformed its peers to an extraordinary degree in Q2.

12 May 2020 What's to Become of EZ GDP With a Hamstrung Services Sector (Publication Centre)

All major EZ governments are now in the process of lifting lockdowns, but investors should expect less a grand opening, more of a careful tip-toeing.

1 July 2020 French Households Rushed to the Store as the Economy Reopened (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ data showed that French households came out swinging as the economy reopened. Consumers' spending, ex-services, jumped by 36.6% month-to-month in May, driving the year-over-year rate up to -8.3%, from -32.7% in April.

1 Apr 2020 ADP Likely to Capture the Leading Edge of the Virus Hit to Jobs (Publication Centre)

Today's March ADP employment report likely will catch the leading edge of the wave of job losses triggered by the coronavirus.

05 October. 2016 EZ PPI deflation will be over soon (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ producer price data showed that deflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector are fading. The headline PPI index fell 0.2% month- to-month in August, pushing the year-over-year up to -2.1%, from a revised -2.6% July.

1 July 2020 Q1 GDP Weaker than First Thought, Amid Rapid Consumer Retrenchment (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national accounts showed that the downturn in the economy on the eve of the Covid-19 outbreak was sharper than first estimated.

1 Sep 2020 Don't Expect LatAm's Output to Reach Pre-Covid Levels this Year (Publication Centre)

The worst of the pandemic seems to be over in many countries in LatAm, allowing a gradual reopening of their economies.

12 May 2020 Downside Risk to April CPI from Rent, Apparel, Airline Fares, Lodging, Autos (Publication Centre)

The 0.1% dip in the core CPI in March was the first outright decline in three years, but we expect another-- and bigger--decline in today's April numbers.

12 May 2020 Brace for a GDP Drop of About 2.5% in Q1, Despite the Late Lockdown (Publication Centre)

The Q1 GDP figures, released on Wednesday, likely will show that the quarter-on-quarter decline in economic activity eclipsed the biggest decline in the 2008-to-09 recession--2.1% in Q4 2008--even though the U.K. went into lockdown towards the very end of the quarter.

11 Dec 2019 Recession Risks Remain Low, Despite Stagnant GDP in October (Publication Centre)

Markets rightly placed little weight on October's below-consensus GDP report yesterday, and still think that the chances of the MPC cutting Bank Rate within the next six months are below 50%.

22 June 2020 Real-Time Data Signal the Economy is Expanding, but Some Weak Spots (Publication Centre)

Today brings only the May existing home sales report, previewed below, so we have an opportunity to look over the latest near-real-time data on economic activity. The picture is mixed.

16 Apr 2020 Jobless Claims Look Set to Fall Sharply, but Remain Insanely High (Publication Centre)

For all the excitement generated by yesterday's raft of appalling economic reports, the weekly jobless claims numbers still offer the best, and almost real-time, guide to the big picture.

20 May 2020 The Labor Market Data will Drive Congress to Act Again (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell broke no new ground in his Senate Testimony alongside--virtually--Treasury Secretary Mnuchin yesterday, maintaining the cautious tone of his recent public statements.

20 Mar 2020 The Fed is Now Intervening Across the Board, Almost, Good (Publication Centre)

The Fed's announcement, at 11.30pm Wednesday, that it will establish a Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility--MMLF--to support prime money market funds, is another step to limit the emerging credit crunch triggered by the virus.

20 July 2020 The First Re-Reopening will be in Arizona in August, Other States Later (Publication Centre)

Just over four weeks after Mike Pence's spectacularly badly-timed Wall Street Journal Op-ed, entitled "There Isn't a Coronavirus Second Wave", the U.S. recorded 465K new cases in the week ended Saturday, easily the worst week of the pandemic to date.

21 Feb 2020 A Bad Weather Hit to February's Composite PMI (Publication Centre)

We expect the flash reading of Markit's composite PMI, released today, to print at 52.4 in February, below the consensus, 52.8, and January's final reading, 53.3, albeit still in line with last month's flash.

21 Sept 2020 August will Prove to Be the High Water Mark for Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

Retailers made hay while the sun shone in August, but clouds now are looming overhead. The 0.8% month-to-month rise in retail sales volumes took them 3.3% above last year's average.

22 July 2020 The Recovery in Existing Home Sales is Underway, More to Come (Publication Centre)

We remain very bullish on the housing market, given sustained 11-year highs in applications for new mortgages to finance house purchase.

22 July 2020 Rising Covid-19 Cases Suggest the Reopening Has Gone too Far (Publication Centre)

Complacency and wishful thinking seem to be creeping back into the government's approach to containing Covid-19.

22 Apr 2020 Southern U.S. States Set to Try to Emulate Sweden, Will it Work? (Publication Centre)

The re-opening of businesses in Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee, starting this week and expanding next week, comes as the rate of increase of confirmed Covid-19 infections in these states remains much faster than in European countries where lockdowns have started to ease.

16 Aug 2019 Consumption Started Q3 Strongly Industry Still in the Doldrums (Publication Centre)

The surge in July core retail sales was flattered by the impact of the Amazon Prime Event, which helped drive a 2.8% leap in sales at nonstore retailers.

20 Aug 2020 July's Jump in CPI Inflation won't be Sustained (Publication Centre)

The jump in CPI inflation to 1.0% in July, from 0.6% in June, caught all analysts by surprise.

17 Dec 2019 The EZ PMIs Point to Another Subpar Quarter for the EZ in Q4 (Publication Centre)

We're sticking to our call that the Eurozone PMIs have bottomed, though we concede that the picture so far is more one of stabilisation than an outright rebound.

16 Mar 2020 The Inflation Outlook won't Stop the MPC from Easing Further (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus outbreak and its associated movements in asset prices have radically changed the outlook for CPI inflation, which ultimately the MPC is tasked with targeting.

16 January 2019 If December's Retail Sales Report Could Speak, it Would be Excited (Publication Centre)

The most important retail sales report of the year, for December, won't be published today, unless some overnight miracle means that the government has re-opened.

19 June 2020 Taking Stock of the EZ Recovery, Is the Virus Returning (Publication Centre)

The gradual reopening of the major EZ economies continues, a process which is now accompanied by the inevitable concern that the virus is regaining a foothold.

17 June 2020 May Retail Sales were Startling, but not as Good as the Headlines (Publication Centre)

Here's something we didn't expect to write: The control measure of retail sales in May was slightly higher than in February.

19 February 2018 Growth in Households' Spending Won't Recover This Year (Publication Centre)

Slower growth in households' spending was the main reason why the economy lost momentum last year.

17 Sept 2020 Inflation to Stay Below 1%, Despite Little Impact from the VAT Cut (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation fell to 0.2% in August, from 1.0% in July, but exceeded our forecast and the consensus, both zero.

18 May 2020 How Quickly will the EZ Economy Rebound from Covid-19? (Publication Centre)

Friday's second Q1 GDP estimate confirmed that lockdowns to halt the spread of Covid-19 hurt the EZ economy in Q1. Real GDP plunged by 3.8% quarter-on- quarter, following a 0.1% rise in Q4, in line with the first estimate.

18 June 2019 Chainstore Sales Growth is Set to Slow Sharply Don't Worry (Publication Centre)

The chainstore sales numbers have been hard to read over the past year.

THE GUARDIAN - British service sector back in growth, according to latest data (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Services sector

Guardian - UK consumers face sharpest price rise in services for nearly a decade (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Price Increases

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