Pantheon Macroeconomics - Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

Search Results: 674
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

Sorry, but our website is best viewed on a device with a screen width greater than 320px. You can contact us at: info@pantheonmacro.com.

Website Search

Search Results

674 matches for " recovery":

30 Sept 2019 Brazil's Labour Market Recovery Is Gathering Pace Q4 will Be Better (Publication Centre)

Economic data released last week underscored that Brazil's economic recovery is continuing; the effect of recent bold rate cuts and improving domestic fundamentals will further support the gradual recovery of the labour market.

31 Mar 2020 Will Housing Market Activity See a V-Shaped Recovery This Year? (Publication Centre)

Covid-19 has cut short a nascent recovery in housing market activity.

5 June 2018. Chile's Recovery Continues, GDP Soared in the First Half of the Year (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirmed the strength of the economic recovery in Chile, and we expect further good news in the next three-to-six months.

11 Aug 2020 Britain's Recovery Likely Quickened in June, but Still Lagged its Peers (Publication Centre)

We expect June's GDP data, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered momentum in June, having got off to a faltering start in May.

22 July. 2015 The Economic Recovery in Spain is Real, But Can it Last? (Publication Centre)

We have to pinch ourselves when looking at economic data in Spain at the moment. Real GDP rose a dizzying 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, driven by solid gains of 0.7% and 1.1% in consumer's spending and investment respectively. Retail sales and industrial production data indicate GDP growth remained strong in Q2, even if survey data lost some momentum towards the end of the quarter. We will be looking for signs of further moderation in Q3, but surging private deposit growth indicate the cyclical recovery will continue.

12 Oct 2020 The Recovery was Stalling Even Before the Second Wave (Publication Centre)

August's GDP report represented a fatal blow to the V-shaped recovery thesis.

16 Aug 2019 China is in for a U-Shaped Recovery H2 Activity will remain Tepid (Publication Centre)

China's July activity data pretty categorically wiped out any false hopes of a V-shaped recovery, after the June spike.

20 July. 2015 Cyclical Recovery, but Structural Relapse in the Italian Economy (Publication Centre)

The cyclical recovery in Italy likely strengthened in the second quarter. Real GDP rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, and we think the e conomy repeated, or even slightly, beat this number in Q2. This would mark the strongest performance in four years, but it will take more than a business cycle upturn to solve the Italian economy's structural challenges. Government and non-financial corporate debt has risen to 220% of GDP since 2008, and non-performing loans--NPLs--have sky rocketed.

6 Aug 2020 The Recovery will Decelerate Sharply in the Autumn (Publication Centre)

A range of indicators show that the pace of the economic recovery shifted up a gear in July, when all shops were open for the entire month, and most consumer services providers finally were permitted to reopen.

3 June 2019 China's Faltering "Recovery" will Keep its Trade Negotiators Engaged (Publication Centre)

The sharp fall in China's manufacturing PMI in May makes clear that its recovery is nowhere near secured.

7 July 2020 Don't Mistake Pent-up Demand for a Genuinely Strong Recovery (Publication Centre)

The next couple of months likely will see some activity data rebound to close to pre-Covid levels, fuelling hopes of a V-shaped recovery.

8 January 2019 Expect to See a Real but Lukewarm Q4 GDP Recovery in Japan (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Nikkei services PMI report completed Japan's set of surveys for the fourth quarter of 2018.

8 June 2020 Mexico's Survey Data are on the Mend, but a Full Recovery is Distant (Publication Centre)

Economic conditions remain challenging in Mexico, despite a modest improvement in leading indicators. The usual surveys currently are not well-suited to capture the economy's upturn from the Covid-19 collapse.

13 Aug 2020 The Fastest Part of the Recovery in GDP Already Lies in the Past (Publication Centre)

The U.K. economy underperformed its peers to an extraordinary degree in Q2.

7 July. 2015 Cyclical Recovery is Resilient - Not Immune - To Greek Turmoil (Publication Centre)

The sell-off in bonds and equities continued yesterday, but the reaction bears no resemblance, so far, to the sovereign debt crises in 2012 and 2010. The first evidence from sentiment data in July also points to surprising stability. The headline Sentix index rose to 18.5, up slightly from 17.1 in June, but the expectations index fell marginally, to 22.3 from 22.5.

8 Oct. 2015 Flat Mortgage Demand Signals a Pause in the Housing Recovery (Publication Centre)

We planned to write today about the rebound in housing market activity over the past few months, arguing that it is about to run out of steam in the face of the recent flat trend in mortgage applications. The Mortgage Bankers Associations' purchase applications index rocketed in the spring, but then moved in a narrow range from mid-April through late September. Then, out of the blue, the MBA reported a 27% leap in applications in the week ended October 2, taking the index to its highest level in more than five years.

EZ Datanote: EU Recovery Fund Proposal (Publication Centre)

In one line: We have an outline; now the political game begins.

1 Apr 2020 Hold Your Horses... A V-Shaped Recovery in China isn't Secured, Yet (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs for March surprised well to the upside, cheering markets across Asia.

10 June 2020 GDP Recovery Greatly Constrained by the Fitful Reopening of Schools (Publication Centre)

The government's decision to shelve plans to reopen primary schools fully later this month will ensure that GDP remains greatly below its precoronavirus level throughout the summer months.

10 March 2017 Evidence of a Brazilian Business Cycle Recovery this Year is Building (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector had a relatively good start to the year. Data on Wednesday showed that production fell 0.1% month-to-month in January, less than markets expected, and the year-over-year rate rose to 1.4%, after a 0.1% drop in December.

6 Oct 2020 Korea's Export Recovery in Q3 was Brisk... but the Easy Bit is Now Over (Publication Centre)

Korean exports ended the third quarter on a solid note, though nowhere near as strongly as the headline growth rate suggested.

8 Sept 2020 July GDP to Show V-Shaped Recovery Remains Elusive (Publication Centre)

We expect July's GDP report, released on Friday, to show that overall output rose by about 7.0% month-to-month, bringing it to 11.5% below its pre-Covid peak.

4 Sep 2020 Did the PMIs Just Put the Recovery in the Euro Area On Notice (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final PMI data for August confirmed that the composite index in the EZ fell to 51.9, from 54.9 in July, slightly higher than the first estimate, 51.6.

23 Sept 2020 The V-Shaped Recovery Died in Early Summer, Now, it's a Slog, at Best (Publication Centre)

We triggered a bit of pushback on social media yesterday when we suggested that Larry Kudlow's familiarity with the alphabet is questionable.

14 Sept. 2015 Mexico's industrial output slowed in August: The recovery Is feeble (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank, the BCRP, capitulated to the sharp PEN depreciation this year--and acceleration of inflation--and unexpectedly increased interest rates by 25bp to 3.50% last Thursday, for the first time since January. This was a brave step, showing that policymakers are extremely worried about the pace of inflation, despite activity still running below potential. The BCRP argues, though, that activity will accelerate during the coming quarters, so they need now to control inflation by anchoring expectations.

20 May 2020 The EU Moves One Step Closer to a Jointly Financed Recovery Fund (Publication Centre)

Investors have been treated to good news in the past week, at least if they've managed to side-step the barrage of terrible economic data.

18 May 2020 V-Shaped Recovery Over in China's Factories, Consumers Still Lagging (Publication Centre)

China's two-tier post-lockdown economic revival continued in April. Industrial production beat expectations easily, rising by 3.9% year-over-year, after slipping by 1.1% in March.

14 Oct 2020 Mexico's Labour Market is Improving, but the Recovery will Stall Soon (Publication Centre)

The broad message from the Mexican activity data and job market numbers released in recent days is that the economy is finally on the mend, though it seems no longer to be accelerating.

25 Sept. 2015 Mexico's Recovery Still in Place, And Brazil's Woes Deepening (Publication Centre)

The state of the Mexican economy is still favorable, despite the slowdown over the last few quarters. This week, the IGAE economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--rose 2.0% year-over-year in July, a relatively solid pace, but down from 3.2% in June, and 2.6% in the first half. All these data suggest that economic activity failed to gather momentum at the beginning of Q3 after a disappointing first half of the year.

4 Aug 2020 Chile's Economic Recovery Started Strongly in June, Despite the Virus (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days confirmed the intensity of the Covid-related shock to the Chilean economy in Q2.

28 Oct 2019 Germany is in Recession, When Will the Recovery Begin? (Publication Centre)

Survey data in Germany showed few signs of picking up from their depressed level at the start of Q4.

26 Feb. 2016 The Foundations of the U.K. Recovery are Remarkably Fragile (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 was left unrevised, but that was the only nugge t of good news from yesterday's second GDP release. The expenditure breakdown hardly could have looked more troubling.

19 Aug 2020 A Mixed Start to Q3 for China, the Recovery Remains Very Narrow (Publication Centre)

China's economy got off to an uneasy start in the third quarter.

30 Apr. 2015 Real M1 Growth Points to Strengthening Cyclical Recovery (Publication Centre)

Survey and money supply data remain consistent with an improving Eurozone economy. Yesterday's EC sentiment index fell to 103.7 in April, from 103.9 in March, due to weakness in France and Germany, but it is consistent with GDP growth of about 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2.

10 Sept. 2015 Wage Cuts Pay off as Periphery Leads EZ Employment Higher (Publication Centre)

Workers in the euro area remain scarred by the zone's repeated crises, but the strengthening cyclical recovery is slowly starting to spread to the labour market. The unemployment rate fell to a three-year low of 10.9% in July, and employment has edged higher after hitting a low in the middle of 2013. Germany's outperformance is a key story, with employment increasing uninterruptedly since 2009, and the unemployment rate declining to an all-time low of 6.4%. Among the other major economies, the unemployment rate in Spain and Italy remains higher than in France. But employment in Spain has outperformed in the cyclical recovery since 2013.

5 Aug 2020 Mortgage Refinancing will Support Incomes Immaterially This Year (Publication Centre)

The economy will endure a sluggish recovery from Covid-19 this year, even if a second wave of the virus is avoided, partly because monetary stimulus is not filtering through powerfully to households.

10 July 2020 GDP Likely Retraced Just One- Fifth of its Covid-19 Slump in May (Publication Centre)

We expect May's GDP report, released on Tuesday, to provide an early blow to hopes that the economy will embark on a V-shaped recovery this year.

4 Dec. 2015 How Reliable is the Composite PMI as an Indicator of GDP Growth? (Publication Centre)

A further rise in the business activity index of the November Markit/CIPS report on services offset declines in the manufacturing and construction surveys' key balances. The composite PMI--a weighted average of three survey's activity indices -- therefore rose, to a level consistent with quarter-on-quarter GDP growth strengthening to 0.6% in the fourth quarter, from 0.5% in Q3. Nonetheless, we do not think this is a convincing signal that the economic recovery is regaining strength.

4 Apr. Britain is Living Beyond its Means, Once Again (Publication Centre)

The clear message from the fourth quarter's national accounts, released last week, is that the economic recovery rests on unsustainable foundations. The U.K. has returned to bad habits and is financing expenditure today by borrowing. As this undermines future spending, it is only a matter of time before the U.K.'s recovery loses steam.

2 July 2020 Don't Expect Manufacturing Output to Reach Pre-Covid Levels this Year (Publication Centre)

The recovery in the industrial sector from Covid-19 finally commenced in earnest in June, after May's stalled start.

13 Jan 2020 Mexico's Weak Economic Activity Will Push Core Inflation Down (Publication Centre)

Thursday's CPI report in Mexico showed that inflation is edging lower. We are confident that it will continue to fall consistently during Q1, thanks chiefly to the subpar economic recovery, low inertia and the effect of the recent MXN rebound.

16 June 2017 Housing Construction Should Rebound (Publication Centre)

We were surprised by the weakness of the April housing starts report; we expected a robust recovery after the March numbers were depressed by the severe snowstorms across a large swathe of the country. Instead, single-family permits rose only trivially and multi-family activity--which is always volatile--fell by 9% month-to-month.

10 Dec. 2015 Does the Case for Permanently Much Lower Real Rates Stand Up? (Publication Centre)

Larry Summers stirred the pot yet again with an article in the FT at the weekend, arguing that because the Fed typically eases by more than 300bp to pull the economy out of recession, "the chances are very high that recession will come before there is room to cut rates enough to offset it". This follows from his view that the neutral level of real short rates has fallen so far that "the odds are the Fed will not be able to raise rates 100 basis points a year without threatening to undermine recovery".

31 May 2019 The First GDP Contraction in Brazil Since 2016 Will it Improve (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic recovery faltered in the first quarter and the near-term outlook remains challenging.

7 July 2020 Will the Weakness of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue in Q3? (Publication Centre)

Recent economic indicators in Mexico have been terrible. The worst of the recession seems to be over, but recent hard data have underscored the severity of the shock and made it clear that the recovery has a long way to go.

6 Apr. Britain's Happy Period of Strong Growth and Low Inflation is Over (Publication Centre)

The latest PMIs have added to the weight of evidence that the economic recovery has lost momentum this year. The prevailing view in markets, however, that the Monetary Policy Committee is more likely to cut--rather than raise--interest rates this year continues to look misplaced because inflation pressure is building.

7 July 2020 A Meagre Post-Lockdown Rise in German Manufacturing Output? (Publication Centre)

Last week we reported on the V-shaped recovery in German retail sales--see here--as lockdowns ended mid- way through Q2.

20 Oct. 2015 Inflation Rebound to Force MPC's Hand, Even if Recovery Slows (Publication Centre)

The consensus view on the Monetary Policy Committee, that it will take two years for CPI inflation to return to the 2% target, looks complacent. Leading indicators suggest that price pressures will return faster than both policymakers and markets expect. Interest rates are therefore likely to rise in the first half of 2016, even if the recovery loses momentum.

20 June 2017 Brazil's Recovery Continues, but Politics have Harmed its Prospects (Publication Centre)

Economic data released in recent weeks underscore that Brazil emerged from recession in Q1, but the recovery is fragile and further rate cuts are badly needed. The political crisis has damaged the reform agenda, and political uncertainty lingers.

03 October. 2016 First Signs of Recovery in Brazilian Private Consumption? (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession has been severe, triggered by the downturn in the commodity cycle, which revealed the underlying structural weaknesses in the economy. This set off an acute shock in domestic demand, but it has bottomed in recent months and we now expect a gradual recovery to emerge.

21 Oct. 2015 Recovery Won't Shrug Off The Fiscal Squeeze (Publication Centre)

The conventional wisdom that the U.K. economy will comfortably weather the coming fiscal squeeze is misplaced. The planned adjustment is large, designed to minimise its political, not economic, impact, and based on overly optimistic assumptions. What's more, the economy is in many respects less well-placed to cope with the tightening than when the previous government applied the fiscal brakes. And when the recovery slows, the Chancellor is less likely to change tack and ease the squeeze this time.

23 Apr. 2015 Cyclical recovery in the Eurozone will likely moderate in Q2, slightly (Publication Centre)

The preliminary April PMIs due today will provide the first economic sentiment data for Q2, and likely will point to a continuation of the cyclical recovery. We think the composite PMI was unchanged at 54.0 in April, driven by a small gain in manufacturing offset by a slight decline in services.

23 Oct. 2015 U.K. Consumer Recovery is Not as Robust as Retail Sales Suggest (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the surge in retail sales volumes in September suggests that the U.K. consumer is in fine fettle and can prevent the economic recovery from losing momentum as exporters struggle and government spending retrenches. But the underlying picture is less encouraging and consumers won't be able to sustain the recent robust growth in real spending when inflation revives next year.

22 July 2020 Argentina's Economic Recovery is Underway, but it's a Very Slow Start (Publication Centre)

Economic activity is rebounding in LatAm, but the recovery will be slow and uneven.

19 March 2018 Argentina's Recovery Continues, but the Rebound is Facing Setbacks (Publication Centre)

Argentina's Recovery Continues, but the Rebound is Facing Setbacks

16 Oct 2020 Near-Real-Time Data Show the Recovery has Hit a Wall (Publication Centre)

Many indicators continue to suggest that the economic recovery has stalled.

16 Oct 2020 Brazil's Modest Recovery Continues, Argentina's Inflation Risks Increase (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday from Brazil support our view that the economic recovery continues, but progress is slowing, following the initial post-lockdown rebound.

16 Sept 2020 On the Surface, China's Recovery Regained Momentum in August (Publication Centre)

China's economic recovery resumed in August, following an uneven start to the third quarter in July.

18 May 2018 Did Markets Jump the Gun on Japan's Recovery? (Publication Centre)

Downward revisions to Japan's Q4 real GDP growth, published on Wednesday, lead us to revisit our main worry over the durability of the recovery; namely, that monetary conditions appear to be signalling a slowdown.

25 Mar. 2015 PMIs point strengthening cyclical recovery (Publication Centre)

Evidence is mounting that the cyclical recovery in the Eurozone accelerated further in the first quarter. The Composite PMI in the euro area rose to 54.1 in March, up from 53.3 in February, taking the quarterly average to 53.3, its highest level since the second quarter of 2011. Combined with latest available retail sales and industrial production data, this is consistent with real GDP growth in the euro area accelerating to about 0.4-to-0.5% quarter-on quarter in the first quarter, from 0.3% in Q4.

18 May 2020 America's Three-Legged Recovery Stool Looks Less Shaky by the Day (Publication Centre)

In recent client "meetings" we have been emphasizing the idea that a sustained recovery in the economy over the summer depends on the solidity of a three-legged stool.

19 May 2020 Full Recovery is a Long Way Off, but Markets Trade on News and Hopes (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell's comment on Sunday's "60 Minutes", that a recovery in the economy "may take a while... it could stretch through the end of next year" did not prevent a 3% jump in the S&P 500 yesterday.

Asia H2 2019 Outlook - China's recovery is tentatively pending - Japanese domestic demand will disappoint - Korea is through the worst - The RBI is in for a U-turn (Publication Centre)

China's Recovery Tentatively Pending *Japan is Weaker than it Looks *The Worst is Over in Korea *Expect an RBI U-Turn

4 May. 2016 The Recent Recovery of LatAm's Currencies Poses No Threat, Yet (Publication Centre)

The recovery of some key commodity prices, policy action in China, and stronger expectations that the U.S. Fed will start hiking rates later during the year, have helped reduce volatility in LatAm financial markets. Oil prices have rise by around 20% year-to-date, iron ore prices are up about 60% and copper has risen by 7%.

4 July 2017 Mr Abe Trounced in Tokyo Elections just as Recovery Gains Traction (Publication Centre)

The Tankan survey powered ahead in Q2, pulling away from Q1 and mostly beating consensus. This confirms our impression of the strength of the recovery ,just as Prime Minister Abe's Liberal Democratic Party is trounced at the polls in Tokyo. The drubbing is understandable as the main benefits of Abenomics have gone to the business sector, at the expense of the household sector.

7 Sept 2020 Korean Exports are Still on the Road to Recovery, Backing the Won's Run (Publication Centre)

The recovery in Korean exports--a key leading indicator for global trade--appears to have stalled in August.

4 Nov. 2015 Today's PMIs Will Send a Signal o f a Continuing Cyclical Recovery (Publication Centre)

Final October PMI data today will confirm the Eurozone's recovery remains on track. We think the composite PMI rose to 54.0 from 53.6 in September, in line with the consensus and initial estimate. Data on Monday showed that manufacturing performed better than expected in October, and the composite index likely will enjoy a further boost from solid services. The PMIs currently point to a trend in GDP growth of 0.4%-to-0.5% quarter-on-quarter, the strongest performance since the last recession.

7 Oct 2020 India's Two-Speed Recovery is at a Crossroads, Downside Risks Prevail (Publication Centre)

The changing face of India's post-lockdown economic recovery indicates that the initial bounce since the June reopening could soon stall.

5 July 2017 ISM Signals Continued Industrial Recovery, but not a Boom (Publication Centre)

The June ISM manufacturing index signalled clearly that the industrial recovery continues, with the headline number rising to its highest level since August 2014, propelled by rising orders and production. But the industrial economy is not booming and the upturn likely will lose a bit of momentum in the second half as the rebound in oil sector capex slows.

4 Sep 2020 The Recovery in Chinese Services is Very Uneven, the Punchy PMI Aside (Publication Centre)

China's services sector continues to do most of the heavy lifting for the economy's recovery this quarter, judging by the survey data.

7 Sept. 2015 Mexico's Recovery In Place But Constrained By External Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Growth momentum in Mexico has improved marginally over the last few months after the soft patch during the first quarter, with business and households gaining confidence in the economic recovery. But the upswing has been rather modest, due to the volatility in global financial markets and the challenging external environment. The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated over recent months due to China's problems, and commodity prices remain under pressure. All these factors are now weighing on investors' confidence and hurting EM across asset classes.

9th September 2020 Global Monitor The recovery in the U.S. labour market is losing steam (Publication Centre)

• U.S.- The recovery in payrolls is petering out • EUROZONE - Soft August PMIs put the EZ recovery on notice • U.K.- GDP growth is set to slow sharply as support measures are pulled • ASIA - Reopening in India won't save the economy in the near term • LATAM -Ignore depressed Q2 GDP data in Brazil, Q3 will look better

5 Oct 2020 Data Confirm the Recovery in Brazil is on Track, but Momentum is Fading (Publication Centre)

Brazil's Q3 hard data have confirmed that the economy is recovering from the Corona shock, as economic activity resumes. But some indicators are losing momentum, and the labour market is still struggling, suggesting a long and bumpy road to full recovery.

06 Jan. 2016 Chile's Economic Recovery is Still Fragile And China-Dependent (Publication Centre)

Chile's economic outlook is still clouded, due mostly to the slowdown in China and low copper prices. But the steady, slow increase in the Imacec index, a monthly proxy for GDP, supports our view of a sustained but modest economic recovery this year. The index increased 1.8% year-over-year in November, marginally up from the meagre 1.5% gain in October, but below the 2.2% average seen during Q3 as a whole. November's gain was driven by an increase in services activity, offsetting weakness in mining. Services have been the key engine of growth in the current cycle and likely will remain so in H1.

3 Sept 2019 China's Policymakers Hold Their Breath as Recovery Takes its Time (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs show no sign of a recovery yet, but the authorities are sticking to the playbook; they've done the bulk of the stimulus and are waiting for the effects to kick in, but are recognising that they need to make some adjustments.

30 August 2017 Argentina's Recovery is Gaining Traction but Inflation is Still a Risk (Publication Centre)

Recently data from Argentina continue to signal a firming cyclical recovery. According to INDEC's EMAE economic activity index, a monthly proxy for GDP, the economy grew 4.0% year-over-year in June, up from an already-solid 3.4% in May.

30 Oct. 2015 Can the Recovery in Business Investment Maintain Its Pace? (Publication Centre)

Business investment has punched above its weight in the economic recovery from the crash of 2008; annual real growth in capex has averaged 5% over the last five years, greatly exceeding GDP growth of 2%. This recovery is unlikely to grind to a halt soon, since profit margins are still high and borrowing costs will remain low. But corporate balance sheets are not quite as robust as they seem, while capex in the investment-intensive oil sector still has a lot further to fall.

30 July 2020 No 2nd Wave in Korea to Derail the Recovery in Consumer Confidence (Publication Centre)

The recovery of consumer confidence in Korea remains undeterred by the lingering risk of a second wave.

26 Mar. 2015 Survey Data Point to a Recovery for German Investment in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The IFO survey released yesterday provides further evidence that the cyclical recovery in Germany's economy continued in the current quarter. The headline business climate index rose to 107.9 in March from 106.8 in February, lifted by increases in both the current assessments and expectations index.

28 May 2020 The Commission's Recovery Fund Could be a Game-Changer (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's big news in the Eurozone was the EU Commission's proposed recovery fund.

14 Sept 2020 The Recovery in GDP will Continue to Decelerate Through the Autumn (Publication Centre)

GDP data for July, released on Friday, showed that the economic recovery following the Covid-19 lockdown still does not look V-shaped, even though virtually all restrictions on economic activity had been lifted.

13 May 2020 Punchy Money Data for April Keep China's Recovery Hopes Alive (Publication Centre)

China's money data continued to improve in April, bolstering the economy's recovery prospects.

14 Sept 2020 Enough Fuel has Been Spent to Power China's Recovery into 2021 (Publication Centre)

China's economic recovery over the next twelve months remains secure, barring another major outbreak of Covid-19 domestically, or another synchronised lockdown globally.

15 Oct 2019 Brazil's Modest Recovery Continues, Peru's Central Bank to Cut Soon (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday from Brazil support our view that the economic recovery continues, but progress has been slow.

Bloomberg - Surveillance: Market Optimism with Shalett (Podcast) (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Asia Economist, says the recovery in China is likely to underperform in the second half of the year.

Question of the Week, WC 12th October 2020 (Media Centre)

Will the EU's recovery fund be delayed?

Question of the Week, WC 5th October 2020 (Media Centre)

Will the EU's recovery fund be delayed?

Bloomberg - ECB About to Turn Up Printing Press to Finance Europe's Recovery (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the latest action from the ECB

INDEPENDENT - The chart that shows the UK economic recovery is "on its knees" (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. PMI data, April

BUSINESS INSIDER - Car sales are going through the roof with Europe's surprising spending recovery (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on European Car Sales

24 Aug 2020 Weak Growth and Low Inflation in LatAm, Central Banks on Hold (Publication Centre)

While we were on holiday, the data confirmed that economies have been badly hit by the pandemic in Q2, and that the upturn will be gradual.

17 July 2020 Andes' Economic Prospects Remain Grim, but they will Improve Soon (Publication Centre)

May's activity data in the Andes underline the severe hit from the pandemic on economic activity.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan: Monetary base growth slowed to 2.8% y/y in August, from 3.7% in July. Bloomberg reports no consensus, Korea: Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 1.0% q/q, from 1.1% in the preliminary report, below the no-change consensus. • Korea: CPI inflation fell to 0.0% in August, from 0.6% in July, below the consensus, 0.2%.

3 Aug 2020 A Second Wave of Covid-19 and a Rally in EURUSD, What Gives (Publication Centre)

The two main developments in the EZ economy while we were away seem contradictory.

2 Mar 2020 Cyclical Improvement in Brazil's Unemployment, but Threats Rising (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that the downward trend in Brazil's unemployment continued into this year. The unadjusted unemployment rate fell to 11.2% in January, slightly below the consensus, and down from 12.0% in January last year.

27 Apr 2020 The EU's Political Leaders are in a Trap of their own Making (Publication Centre)

Last week's European Council meeting provided little in the way of clarity over the likelihood of a jointly financed response to support economies through the Covid-19 outbreak.

5 Nov. 2015 Yellen Signals December Action, Data Permitting (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen yesterday reinforced the impression that the bar to Fed action in December, in terms of the next couple of employment reports, is now quite low: "If we were to move, say in December, it would be based on an expectation, which I believe is justified, [our italics] that with an improving labor market and transitory factors fading, that inflation will move up to 2%." The economy is now "performing well... Domestic spending has been growing at a solid pace" making a December hike a "live possibility." New York Fed president Bill Dudley, speaking later, said he "fully" agrees with Dr. Yellen's position, but "let's see what the data show."

5 May 2020 EZ Manufacturing Crashed and Burned at the Start of Q2 (Publication Centre)

Services will bear the brunt of the Covid-19 shock in the euro area, but manufacturing is not far behind.

23 June 2020 Last Week's "Black Friday" in Colombia will Boost Covid Cases (Publication Centre)

Recent data in Colombia have confirmed that virus containment measures caused much bigger declines in activity in early Q2 than initially expected.

5 Feb 2020 BoJ Reaction to the Coronavirus Could Damage Activity, Perversely (Publication Centre)

We've previously highlighted the pro-cyclical elements of the BoJ's framework, but it's worth repeating, when an economic shock comes along.

19 May 2020 A Eurozone Investor's Shopping List in a Time of Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

The uncertainty over the strength and speed of the economic rebound is still a concern for investors in terms of putting money to work.

4 Sep 2020 Chile's Central Bank to Keep Rates on Hold for the Foreseeable Future (Publication Centre)

Recent hard data have confirmed the severe shock from Corona to the Chilean economy in Q2.

19 Oct 2020 The Second Wave Brings Korea's Jobs Data Back Down to Earth (Publication Centre)

Korea's labour market ran out of luck in September, with the unemployment rate rebounding back up to 3.9%, after the surprise one-percentage point drop to 3.2% in August.

3 Dec. 2015 Low Inflation Expectations Won't Become Self-Fulfilling (Publication Centre)

Households' inflation expectations have fallen again over the last few months, but we doubt they will constrain the forthcoming rebound in actual inflation. Past experience shows that inflation expectations are more of a coincident than a leading indicator of inflation. In addition, inflation is weakest right now in sectors where demand is relatively insensitive to price changes, so, when retailers' costs rise, they won't pay much heed to households' expectations.

22 June. 2016 Promising Inflation Picture in Brazil, Better News is Coming (Publication Centre)

Brazil's mid-June inflation reading surprised to the downside, falling to 9.0% from 9.6% in May. The reading essentially confirmed that May's rebound was a pause in the downward trend rather than a resurgence of inflationary pressures. A 1.3% increase in housing prices, including services, was the main driver of mid-June's modest unadjusted 0.4% month-to-month rise in the IPCA-15.

19 Oct. 2015 Slowdown in Store as Fiscal Policy Tightens and Strong Pound Bites (Publication Centre)

A powerful cocktail of cheap money, labour and commodities, allowed to infuse by a hiatus in the government's austerity programme, has reinvigorated the U.K. economy over the last three years. But these supports are now weakening while new headwinds are emerging. The U.K. economy is heading for a pronounced slowdown, one that is under-appreciated by most forecasters and under-priced by markets.

9 September. 2016 Political Turbulence in Mexico Won't Derail Fiscal Consolidation (Publication Centre)

Political developments are clouding the horizon in Mexico, at least temporarily. Mexico's Finance Minister Luis Videgaray, the mastermind behind President Enrique Peña Nieto's most important economic reforms, resigned on Wednesday. José Antonio Meade, a former finance chief, has been tapped to replace him.

5 Jan. 2015 An Era of Outstanding Economic Growth in Brazil Appears To Be Over (Publication Centre)

Dilma Rousseff was sworn in for a second term as Brazil's president last Thursday, vowing to extend social welfare programmes and promising to investigate the Petrobras corruption scandal.

22 July 2020 Rising Covid-19 Cases Suggest the Reopening Has Gone too Far (Publication Centre)

Complacency and wishful thinking seem to be creeping back into the government's approach to containing Covid-19.

6 Apr. 2016 Recession Risks Ease in Chile as Underlying IMACEC Stabilizes (Publication Centre)

Chile's economy appears to have gathered momentum in February with the Imacec index, a proxy for GDP, increasing 2.8% year-over-year, up from a modest 0.1% contraction in January and its fastest pace since January 2015. Activity was driven mainly by expansion in services, mining and retail commerce activities.

29 July 2019 China's GDP Headlines Overstate Growth but Q2 Wasn't all Bad News (Publication Centre)

China's Q2 real GDP growth officially slowed to 6.2% year-over-year, from 6.4% in Q1, which already matched the trough in the financial crisis.

27 Mar 2020 Brace for a Double-Digit Drop in Retail Sales During the Lockdown (Publication Centre)

February's retail sales figures highlighted that consumers' spending was flagging even before the Covid-19 outbreak.

29 July 2020 Disposable Incomes are Heading for their Biggest Annual Post-War Drop (Publication Centre)

The 2008-to-09 recession was a mild experience for most households which remained employed and benefited from a huge decline in mortgage rates.

27 July 2020 Don't Be Fooled by Temporary Strength in Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

June's surge in retail sales is not a sign that households' total spending is zipping back to pre- downturn levels.

27 November 2017 Brazil's Politics and Economy are Both Heading in the Right Direction (Publication Centre)

President Temer seems to be advancing on his reform agenda.

7 Feb 2020 A Weak Economy Could Challenge COPOM's View that Easing is Over (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian central bank cut the benchmark Selic interest rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, on Wednesday night, as expected.

20 July 2020 Which High Frequency Indicators Truly Add Value? (Publication Centre)

High frequency data are all the rage, given the speed and severity of the Covid-19 shock. GDP data are published with a lag of about six weeks, too long for investors to wait.

7 Jan 2020 Chile's Economic Upturn Stuttered in Q4, Risks to Growth are Stabilizing (Publication Centre)

Chile's near-term economic outlook is still negative, but clouds have been gradually dispersing since late Q4, due mostly to better news on the global trade front, China's improving economic prospects, and rising copper prices.

7 July 2020 The Prospects for a Robust Q3 Rebound in India are Diminishing (Publication Centre)

India's services PMI for June underscores the half-hearted nature of Unlock 1.0, with the daily number of new cases of Covid-19 still rocketing.

20 July 2017 The June Housing Starts Rebound is not the Start of a Boom (Publication Centre)

We would like to be able to argue with conviction that the surge in June housing starts and building permits represents the beginning of a renewed strong upward trend, but we think that's unlikely.

29 May. 2015 Stable GDP Growth and Moderately Higher Inflation in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Money supply data today should provide further confirmation of a moderate upturn in the Eurozone credit cycle. We think broad money growth, M3, accelerated to 5.0% year-over-year in April, up from 4.6% in March.

4 Aug 2020 Rising Covid-19 Infections Signal no Further Net Reopening (Publication Centre)

The continued gradual rise in new confirmed cases of Covid-19 lends more weight to the idea that the economy already has reopened as much as possible while containing the virus.

20 Mar 2020 Monetary and Fiscal Policy Measures to Fight the Economic Armageddon (Publication Centre)

Economic and financial conditions continue to deteriorate sharply in LatAm.

3 Sep 2020 The German Consumer is in Good Shape, Relatively Speaking (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, yesterday's German consumption data were disappointingly weak.

21 Jan 2020 Colombia's Private Consumption Slowed in Q4, Will it Stabilize Soon? (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday confirmed that Colombian activity lost momentum in Q4, following an impressive performance in late Q2 and Q3. Retail sales rose 4.4% in November, down from 7.4% in October and 8.3% in Q3.

27 Jan 2020 The EZ PMIs were Soft in January, but the German Data were Solid (Publication Centre)

Friday's PMI data were a mixed bag.

9 Nov. 2015 The Unemployment Rate Is the Key Measure of Labour Market Slack (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee continues to assert that it can leave interest rates at rock-bottom levels, even though the unemployment rate has returned to its pre-recession level, because it understates the extent of slack in the labour market. If that hypothesis were correct, however, the relationship between the unemployment rate and wage growth would have weakened. But this clearly has not happened, as our first chart shows.

29 Oct 2019 Can we Rely on M1 as a Leading Indicator in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ money supply data confirmed that liquidity conditions in the private sector improved in Q3, despite the dip in the headline.

9 Dec 2019 Inflation is Ending the Year at a Comfortable Rate, but Threats Loom (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday showed that November inflation was in line with, or below, expectations in Brazil, Colombia and Chile.

6 Mar 2020 Bad to Worse for Korea's Q1, but MERS Shows Rebound Potential (Publication Centre)

The rapid escalation of Covid-19 cases in Korea in recent weeks has broadened the likely damage to the economy this quarter.

21 Sept 2020 August will Prove to Be the High Water Mark for Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

Retailers made hay while the sun shone in August, but clouds now are looming overhead. The 0.8% month-to-month rise in retail sales volumes took them 3.3% above last year's average.

5 Aug 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Showing Solid Signs of Gradual Stabilization (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in Brazil underscored that the Covid-related shock on the industrial sector is finally easing, as the economy gradually reopens.

14 July 2020 Mild Deflation Ahead for Core Goods Inflation in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Today's official euro area manufacturing report will be a corker.

14 Jan 2020 Inflation in Brazil Ended 2019 Above the BCB's Target - 2020 will be Fine (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil Ended 2019 Above the BCB's Target; 2020 will be Fine

14 Sept. 2015 Italy's Structural Problems Persist, but Cyclical Upturn is Firming (Publication Centre)

Italy's long-term challenges--chiefly, structurally high government debt and deteriorating demographics--remain daunting, but the cyclical picture is improving steadily. Final GDP data last week revealed that growth in the first half of the year was 0.2% better than initially estimated, taking the annualised growth rate to 1.4%, the highest in five years. This is the first sign of a durable business cycle upturn since the sovereign debt crisis crashed the economy in 2012.

15 Apr 2020 Brazil's Economy will Rebound in Q3, but Bad Virus Policy is a Risk (Publication Centre)

The hard economic data in Brazil were relatively solid while we were off last week, supporting our view that the economy was experiencing a good spell at the start of the year just before the coronavirus hit.

15 Aug 2019 Mr. Trump Takes a Dose of Reality on Tariffs, but is he Narrativising HK (Publication Centre)

Nobody has a monopoly on "the truth".

14 Feb 2020 Banxico Cuts Rates, Brazil's Domestic Demand Eased in Q4 (Publication Centre)

It was no surprise that Banxico cut its policy rate by 25bp to 7.00% yesterday, following similar moves in August, September, November and December.

13 July 2020 Inflation in Brazil is Tame, Mexico's Industrial Recession Continues (Publication Centre)

Friday's June inflation data in Brazil confirmed that the ripples from the worst of the Covid shock were still being felt at the end of the quarter.

12 Feb 2020 COPOM Closed the Door to Further Easing, Mexico's Industry Struggles (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's minutes of the February 4-to-5 COPOM meeting, at which Brazil's central bank, the BCB, cut the benchmark Selic rate by 25bp to 4.25%, reaffirmed the committee's post-meeting communiqué.

19 June 2018 The Continuity of Colombia's Free- Market Model is Assured (Publication Centre)

Iván Duque, the conservative candidate for the Democratic Centre Party, won the presidential election held in Colombia on Sunday.

13 Dec 2019 Brazil's Central Bank Leaves the Door Open to a Final Rate Cut in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian central bank cut its benchmark Selic interest rate by 50bp to 4.50% on Wednesday night.

18 Aug 2020 Retail Sales Likely were Well Above Pre-Covid Levels in July (Publication Centre)

July's retail sales report, released on Friday, looks set to be the third in a row to surprise the consensus to the upside.

17 Oct 2019 Korea's Q3 GDP Report to Highlight the Futility of the BoK's Second Cut (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea voted yesterday to lower its policy base rate to 1.25%, from 1.50%.

15 February 2019 Will the BCB Help to Drive a GDP Rebound After a Noisy 2018 (Publication Centre)

February's COPOM meeting minutes again signalled that Brazil's central bank will stick with its cautious approach to monetary policy.

15 Jan 2020 Inflation in the Andean Economies Remains Low, but Policies will Differ (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Andean economies ended 2019 well within central banks' objectives, despite many domestic and external challenges.

17 Dec 2019 Colombia Ends the Year Solidly, but Downside Risks for 2020 Emerge (Publication Centre)

Incoming activity data from Colombia over the past quarter have been surprisingly strong, despite many domestic and external threats.

17 April 2018 The Manufacturing Rebound Continues, but Expect a Soft March (Publication Centre)

Over the past 18 months, the year-over-year rate of growth of manufacturing output has swung from minus 2.1% to plus 2.5%.

17 December 2018 China's Activity Data for November were Poor... the Worst is yet to Come (Publication Centre)

We had expected the batch of Chinese data released at the end of last week to disappoint.

17 Jan 2020 EZ Car Sales Soared in Q4, but the Output Data Still Look Awful (Publication Centre)

A strong finish to the fourth quarter spared the EZ auto sector the embarrassment of posting an outright fall in domestic sales through 2019 as a whole.

30 June 2017 China's Government Still has Room to Clean up, but what if they Balk? (Publication Centre)

In the yesterday's Monitor, we presented an exagerated upper-bound for China's bad debt problem, at 61% of GDP. The limitations of the data meant that we double-counted a significant portion of non-financial corporate--NFC--debt with financial corporations and government.

16 May 2017 Upbeat March's Data in Brazil Confirms the Recession is Over (Publication Centre)

Economic data released yesterday underscored that Brazil emerged from recession in the first quarter, but further rate cuts are needed. Indeed, the monthly economic activity index--the IBC-Br--fell 0.4% monthto- month in March, though this followed a strong 1.4% gain in February.

17 July 2020 The ECB Takes Stock of a Strong and Sustained Stimulus Program (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB meeting was a snoozer, just as we predicted.

15 Oct 2020 EZ Industrial Output in August was Distorted by Seasonals (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production data in the EZ suggest that the rebound in manufacturing slowed sharply midway through Q3.

15 July 2020 Sluggish Initial Virus Response to Blame for May's Meagre GDP Rise (Publication Centre)

The costs of the government's failure to lock down quickly in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, ultimately necessitating long-lasting restrictions, were visible in May's GDP figures.

16 July 2018 Mr. Duque Inherits a Colombian Economy Firing on all Cylinders (Publication Centre)

Last week's hard data in Colombia were upbeat, confirming that economic growth accelerated in the first half. Retail sales rose 5.9% year-over-year in May, overshooting consensus.

17 May 2019 Brazil's Economy Faltered in Q1 a Flimsy Upturn is in Prospect (Publication Centre)

Economic data released on Wednesday underscored that Brazil was struggling at the end of the first quarter, strengthening our case that Q1 GDP fell 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, the first contraction since Q4 2016.

17 June 2020 May Retail Sales were Startling, but not as Good as the Headlines (Publication Centre)

Here's something we didn't expect to write: The control measure of retail sales in May was slightly higher than in February.

11 May 2020 More QE Coming in June, Following Inaction from the MPC Last Week (Publication Centre)

The MPC's pause for breath last week disappointed a majority of investors, who thought that it would at least tweak aspects of the support programmes put in place in March.

11 May. 2015 Mexico's Inflationary Pressures Subdued - On Target This Year (Publication Centre)

Mexico is the only major LatAm economy not struggling with inflation. The headline April CPI fell 0.3% month-to-month, with the year-over-year rate unchanged at 3.1%, in the middle o f Banxico's 2-to-4% target. Inflationary pressures have been broadly absent since the beginning of the year, with the annual core CPI rate slowing to 2.3% in April from 2.5% in March.

1 July 2020 Brazil's Job Market is Under Strain, despite a Resilient-looking Headline (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday showed that the labour market in Brazil looks relatively resilient to the collapse in economic activity.

3 July. 2015 Surprising But Not Sustainable Jump in Brazil's Industrial Output (Publication Centre)

The second quarter is over but it is too early to give a reliable forecast of the pace of Brazilian GDP growth. However, an array of leading and coincident indicators points to a steep contraction in Q2 and a bleak second half of the year. Unemployment is leaping higher, along with inflation and household debt, and the ongoing monetary and fiscal tightening will further hurt the real economy ahead.

1 May 2017 Ignore the Weak Q1 GDP Numbers -- they Cannot be Trusted (Publication Centre)

If you apply a seasonal adjustment to a seasonally adjusted series, it shouldn't change. When you apply a seasonal adjustment to the U.S. GDP numbers, they do change. First quarter growth, reported Friday at just 0.7%, goes up to 1.7%, on our estimate.

10 Dec 2019 Well-behaved Inflation in Mexico and Colombia, A Relief for Policymakers (Publication Centre)

Recent inflation and activity data in Mexico were dovish.

09 Feb. 2016 Investors Should Brace for Poor German GDP Data this Week (Publication Centre)

German Q4 GDP data this week will give little comfort to investors searching for signs of a resilient economy in the face of increased market volatility. The consensus expects unchanged GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with solid and stable survey data. But downbeat industrial production and retail sales data point to notable downside risk.

04 Jan. 2016 Further Slowdown Won't Prevent the MPC Raising Rates in 2016 (Publication Centre)

Markets were on the right side of the argument with economists about the outlook for monetary policy in 2015, but we doubt history will repeat itself this year. The consensus among economists a year ago was for interest rates to rise to 0.75% from 0.5% by the end of 2015, in contrast to the markets' view that an increase was unlikely.

3 July 2019 Japan's Tankan Highlights Underlying Economic Weakness (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q2 Tankan survey wasn't all bad news, but the positives won't last long. The large manufacturers index dropped to 7 in Q2, after the decline to 12 in Q1.

19 Aug 2019 Resistance is Futile in the EZ Fixed Income Bull Market... For Now (Publication Centre)

The ECB's communication to markets has been clear this year. In Q1, the central bank changed its stance on the economy towards an emphasis on "downside risks to the outlook".

31 July 2020 Covid-19 Brought Mexico's Economy to its Knees, and the Outlook is Grim (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of Q2 GDP in Mexico confirmed that the economy has been under severe stress in recent months.

02 Feb. 2016 First Quarter Consumption Will be Better - Weather Effects Will Help (Publication Centre)

The upward revisions to real consumers' spending in the fourth quarter, coupled with the likelihood of a hefty rebound in spending on utility energy services, means first quarter spending ought to rise at a faster pace than the 2.2% fourth quarter gain. Spending on utilities was hugely depressed in November and December by the extended spell of much warmer-than-usual weather.

23 March 2018 The MPC Keeps its Options Open, Instead of Committing to May (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee chose to keep its options open in the minutes of this week's meeting, rather than signal as clearly as it did last year that interest rates will rise very soon.

10 Feb 2020 Temporary Shocks Causes Volatility in LatAm Inflation, Trends are Stable (Publication Centre)

Inflation data in Brazil, Mexico and Chile last week reinforced our view that interest rates will remain on hold, or be cut, over the coming meetings. The recent fall in oil prices, and the weakness of domestic demand, will offset recent volatility caused by the FX sell-off, driven mostly by the coronavirus story.

18 Feb 2020 Brazil's Momentum Slowed in Late Q4, but it Will Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively weak footing. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 0.3% month- to-month, pushing down the adjusted year-over- year rate to 0.3%, from a downwardly-revised 0.7% increase in November.

11 June 2020 Promising Money Data Imply the PBoC can Take a Step Back (Publication Centre)

The People's Bank of China likely will be more than content with the latest money and credit data, to the point where it probably won't see the need to cut interest rates further anytime soon.

25 Mar 2020 GDP Likely is Falling Much Faster than Even the Gloomy PMIs Imply (Publication Centre)

Even the record-breaking slump in Markit's composite PMI probably understates the hit to economic activity from Covid-19 and the emergency measures to slow its spread.

18 Mar 2020 Further Downgrades of our Japan GDP Forecasts (Publication Centre)

China's data on Monday were beyond dire, leading to a dramatic downward revision of our already grim Q1 GDP forecasts for the country.

11 Feb 2020 Mexico's Leading Indicators Point to a Modest Upturn, but Risks Abound (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest forward-looking indicators are showing tentative signs of stabilisation in the wake of recent evidence that growth slowed quicker than markets have been expecting.

11 Dec 2019 Mexico's Leading Indicators Still Signal Tough Near-term Prospects (Publication Centre)

Recent activity data in Mexico have been soft and leading indicators still point to challenging near-term prospects, due mainly to relatively high domestic political risk, stifling interest rates and difficult external conditions.

10 July 2019 The BoJ Faces a Slew of Very Nasty Data, it Still won't Ease (Publication Centre)

We think Japanese monetary policy easing essentially is tapped out, both theoretically and by political constraints.

10 June. 2015 ECB policies are partly to blame for low bond market liquidity (Publication Centre)

The last few weeks' action in Eurozone financial markets has shown investors that the QE trade is not a one-way street. Higher short-rates could force the ECB to take preventive measures, but we don't think the central bank will be worried about rising long rates unless they shoot much higher.

18 Aug 2020 Japan's Recovery from the Q2 Carnage is Already Disappointing (Publication Centre)

Japan's economy shrank by an historic 7.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, much worse than the 0.6% slip in the first quarter.

2 May 2017 Can Sterling's Recovery Gather More Momentum? (Publication Centre)

Sterling continued to recover last week, hitting its highest level against the dollar since October, despite a series of data releases indicating that the economy is losing momentum. Indeed, sterling was unscathed by the news on Friday that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth slowed to just 0.3% in Q1, from 0.7% in Q4.

2 March 2018 Brazil GDP Ended 2017 Softly, but the Recovery Will Accelerate in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's GDP growth slowed to just 0.1% quarter- on-quarter in Q4, from an upwardly-revised 0.2% in Q3. This pushed the year-over-year rate up to 2.1%, from 1.4%, but this was weaker than market expectations.

17 July 2018 External Threats and Domestic Woes Will Limit LatAm's Recovery (Publication Centre)

External conditions are becoming more demanding for LatAm economies, with global trade tensions intensifying in recent weeks.

19 July 2017 Credit Conditions in the Eurozone Continue to Support the Recovery (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB bank lending survey suggests that credit conditions remain favourable for the EZ economy. Credit standards eased slightly for business and mortgage lending and were unchanged for consumer credit.

19 June 2020 Taking Stock of the EZ Recovery, Is the Virus Returning (Publication Centre)

The gradual reopening of the major EZ economies continues, a process which is now accompanied by the inevitable concern that the virus is regaining a foothold.

19 September 2017 Colombia's Economy Finally Hits Bottom, but Recovery will be Slow (Publication Centre)

Colombian activity data released this last week were upbeat, better than we expected, showing a significant pickup in manufacturing output and improving retail sales. Retail sales rose 3.1% year- over-year, after a modest 1.0% increase in June.

19 June 2017 Colombia's Economy Started Q2 Poorly, Expect a Sluggish Recovery (Publication Centre)

Evidence of slowing economic activity in Colombia continues to mount. Retail sales fell 2.0% year- over-rate in April, down from a revised plus 3.0% in March; and the underlying trend is falling. This year's consumption tax increase, low confidence, tight credit conditions, and rising unemployment continue to put private consumption under pressure.

2 July. 2015 Slow, but Steady, Recovery for Private Investment in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The PMI survey points to a slow, but steady improvement, in Eurozone manufacturing. The gauge rose marginally to 52.5 in June, up from 52.2 in May. This pushed the quarterly average in Q2 to 52.2, up from 51.1 in Q1. The survey is also telling a story of broad-based manufacturing strength in the two major peripheral economies, despite declines in June.

18 Nov 2019 A Meaningful Recovery in Chinese Capex Growth is a Distant Prospect (Publication Centre)

China's investment slowdown went from worrying to frightening in October. Last week's fixed asset investment ex-rural numbers showed that year- to-date spending grew by 5.2% year-over-year in October, marking a further slowdown from 5.4% in the year to September.

19 Mar 2020 What Else Can the Chancellor do to Reinforce the Eventual Recovery? (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak announced further emergency support measures for the economy on Tuesday and pledged to do more soon.

2 June 2020 Manufacturing is Reviving, but a Full Recovery will Take Several Years (Publication Centre)

We remain convinced by other evidence that manufacturing output now is recovering, though pre-virus levels of production likely will not be realised for several years.

11 November. 2016 Will the Housing Market Recovery Hit Affordability Buffers? (Publication Centre)

After wobbling immediately after the referendum, house prices appear to be back on a rising trajectory. The Halifax measure of house prices, which is based on the lenders' mortgage offers, rose by 1.4% month-to-month in October, following a 0.3% increase in September.

11 Nov. 2015 Mexico Relying on the Fed - Chile Looking for China's Recovery (Publication Centre)

Mexico's inflation remains the envy of LatAm, having consistently outperformed the rest of the region this year. Headline inflation slowed marginally to 2.5% in October, a record low and below the middle of Banxico's target, 2-to-4%, for the sixth straight month. The annual core rate increased marginally to 2.5% in October from 2.4% in September, but it remains below the target and its underlying trend is inching up only at a very slow pace. We expect it to remain subdued, closing the year around 2.7% year-over-year. Next year it will gradually increase, but will stay below 3.5% during the first half of 2016, given the lack of demand pressures and the ample output gap.

1 Oct 2019 The Trouble with China's Private Sector Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs have diverged in the last couple of months.

13 Aug 2020 Solid EZ Manufacturing Data, but Still Far Off a Full Recovery (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ industrial production report conformed to expectations.

13 Jan 2020 Expect Stabilisation, not Recovery, in China's Q4 GDP Data This Week (Publication Centre)

China's GDP report for the fourth quarter, due on Friday, is likely to show that economic growth has stabilised, on the surface.

13 Nov. 2015 Will the Drag on the Recovery From Construction Fade? (Publication Centre)

The underlying health of the construction sector isn't as poor as today's official output figures likely will imply. Nonetheless, growth in construction output, which accounts for 6% of GDP, probably won't return to the stellar rates seen in 2013 and 2014, and the sector can't be relied upon to provide much support to overall growth.

13 June. 2016 Banxico's Dilemma: Help the Recovery or Support the MXN? (Publication Centre)

Markets are still discounting Banxico rate increases in the near term, despite the fact that Mexico's inflation is under control. Unless the MXN goes significantly above 18.7 per USD in the near term, or activity accelerates, we see little scope for rate increases until after the Fed hikes. After May's soft U.S. payrolls, and in light of the economic and financial risk posed by the U.K. referendum, we think a hike this week is unlikely.

13 July 2020 Will the Emergence of Japan's Second Wave Derail the Recovery? (Publication Centre)

Japan's second wave of Covid-19 is in its early phase, though the virus appears to be spreading rapidly.

1 November. 2016 The Recovery in Mexico is Solid, Hampered By Weak Mining (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy grew 1.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, the fastest pace since 2014, following a 0.2% contraction in Q2, according to the preliminary report published yesterday.

1 November. 2016 The Credit-Driven Consumer Recovery is Reaching its Limits (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, September's money supply data suggest that the economy is ebullient, quickly recovering from the shock referendum result. Year-over-year growth in notes and coins in circulation has accelerated to its highest rate since June 2002.

07 Mar. 2016 Brazil's Economy Collapsed in 2015 - No Sign of Quick Recovery (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic news remained grim at the headline level last week, but some of the details were less bad than in recent months. Industrial production fell by 13.8% year-over-year in January, down from the 12.1% drop in December and the worst performance on this basis since mid-2009.

04 Mar. 2016 Brazil's Economy Collapsed in 2015 - No Sign of Quick Recovery (Publication Centre)

The BCB's Copom kept Brazil's Selic rate at 14.25% this week, as expected. The brief accompanying communiqué was very similar to the January statement, saying that after assessing the outlook for growth and inflation, and "the current balance of risks, considering domestic and, mainly, external uncertainties", the Copom decided to keep the Selic rate at a nine-year high, without bias.

02 Feb. 2016 Is the Recovery in Business Investment About to Fizzle Out? (Publication Centre)

Business investment has been resilient to the slowdown in the wider economy so far, with year-over-year growth in the first three quarters of 2015 averaging a very respectable 6.2%. Outside the oil sector, firms are generating healthy profits and can borrow cheaply.

1 Apr 2020 Healthy Pre-Virus Balance Sheets Enhance Recovery Prospects (Publication Centre)

The Q4 national accounts show that the economy lost further momentum at the end of last year, in the face of unprecedented levels of political uncertainty.

1 June 2018 Money Data Cast Doubt on Q2 Recovery in Consumers' Spending (Publication Centre)

A rebound in quarter-on-quarter growth in households' spending in Q2, following the slowdown to just 0.2% in Q1, looks less likely following April's money data.

1 July 2020 It's Official... Risks of Covid Clusters Don't Jeopardise China's Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's economy looks to have shrugged off the supposed "second wave" of Covid-19, sparked by a cluster in Beijing's largest wholesale market for fruit and veg, looking at June's PMIs.

13 Oct 2020 Mexico's Industrial Recovery Continues, but Momentum is Slowing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Mexican industrial production report was downbeat for manufacturing, but revealed that the oil and public construction sectors are starting to show some signs of life, after a challenging first half of the year.

13 Oct 2020 The Worst is Over for Japan's Capex Slump, but No Recovery is in Sight (Publication Centre)

Core machine orders in Japan surprised to the upside in August, when the country's second wave of Covid-19 peaked.

16 January 2019 China's Tax Cuts will Help, but the Recovery will Remain Illusive (Publication Centre)

The Chinese authorities have been out in force in the last few days, aiming to reassure markets and the populace that they are ready and able to support the economy, after abysmal trade data on Monday.

15 September 2017 Brazil Started Q3 Strongly, and the Recovery Should Continue in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's July economic activity index, released yesterday, showed that the economy started the second half of the year strongly. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, rose 0.4% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.4%, from -0.4% in June.

15 Sept 2020 A Tough Start for Japan's New PM, with the Recovery Already Stalling (Publication Centre)

Japan's prime minister in-all-but-name, Yoshihide Suga, will be inheriting an economy struggling to maintain any momentum from the release of pent-up demand.

16 July 2019 Better External Conditions will Support Brazil's Recovery (Publication Centre)

The ramifications of continued disappointing Asian growth, particularly in China, and its impact on global manufacturing, are especially hard-felt in LatAm.

16 Mar 2020 Damaged Global Demand will Curtail China's Recovery Potential (Publication Centre)

The sharply increased virus spread outside China has lead to a serious downgrade in the global GDP growth outlook.

17 August 2017 The Manufacturing Recovery Continues, but no Boom in Sight (Publication Centre)

The elevated readings from the ISM manufacturing survey this year have not been followed by rapid growth in output. The headline ISM averaged 55.8 in the second quarter, a solid if unspectacular reading. But output rose by only 1.2% year-over-year, and by 1.4% on a quarterly annualized basis.

16 Oct. 2015 No Signs of Recovery in Brazil's Domestic Demand (Publication Centre)

Brazil's retail sales plunged in August, falling 0.9% month-to-month--the seventh consecutive contraction -- and with a net revision of -0.6%. The broad retail index, which includes vehicles and construction materials, dropped 2.0% month-to-month, the biggest fall this year, due mainly to a 5.2% collapse in auto sales, reversing July's unexpected increase. In annual terms, headline sales fell by an eye-popping 6.9% in August, after the downwardly-revised 3.9% drop in July. In short, the sales data show that consumers are suffering. They will struggle for some time yet.

16 Oct 2019 China's Q3 GDP Likely was Dismal, Recovery Still Pending (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth likely slowed to 6.0% year-over-year in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2.

15 June 2020 The Recovery in GDP will Lose Momentum as the Year Drags On (Publication Centre)

The economy will be a shadow of its former self over the remainder of this year, following the heavy pummelling from Covid-19.

15 January 2019 China's Trade Data will get Nastier but Expect a V-Shaped Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's December foreign trade numbers were unpleasant, with both exports and imports falling year-over-year, after rising, albeit slowly in November.

14 Jan. 2015 - Small Firms Recovery Accelerates, but Labor Costs are Rising (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data were second-tier in the eyes of the markets, but not, perhaps in the eyes of the Fed. The continued surge in job openings, which reached a 14-year high in December, means that the Beveridge Curve--which links the number of job openings to the unemployment rate--shows no signs at all of returning to normal.

14 Jan 2020 Early Signs of an IP Recovery in India Build the Case for the RBI's Pause (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in India turned around sharply in November, rising by 1.8% year-over-year, following October's 4.0% plunge and beating the consensus forecast for a trivial 0.3% uptick.

13 Sept 2019 House Price Growth Has Reached its Nadir, Expect a Recovery in 2020 (Publication Centre)

The housing market appears to be emerging gradually from the coma induced by Brexit uncertainty at the start of the year.

14 June 2017 Retail Sales Show Brazil's Gradual Consumer Recovery Continues (Publication Centre)

Evidence of a modest upturn in Brazilian consumers' spending continues to mount. Retail sales rose 1.0% month-to-month in April, pushing the year-over-rate up to +1.9%, from an upwardly-revised -3.2% in March.

14 June. Higher Inflation to Highlight Broad Recovery in Cost Pressures (Publication Centre)

We expect today's consumer prices figures to show that CPI inflation picked up to 0.5% in May, from 0.3% in April, exceeding the 0.4% rate anticipated by both the consensus and the MPC, in last month's Inflation Report. We expect the increase to be driven by a jump in the core rate to 1.4%, from 1.2% in April.

15 February 2018 The Eurozone Recovery is Over, Welcome to the Expansion (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second estimate of Q4 Eurozone GDP confirmed the upbeat story from the advance report, despite the dip in headline growth.

14 November 2018 China's Potential H1 Recovery Just Fizzled out... Before it Started (Publication Centre)

Credit to the Chinese authorities for sticking it out with the marginal approach to easing for so long... at least two quarters.

17 Dec 2019 Signs of Stabilisation in Chinese Data, but not yet a Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's activity data outperformed expectations in November.

21 June. 2016 All Aboard for a Recovery in German Inflation Pressures (Publication Centre)

Producer prices in Germany rose 0.4% month-to-month in May, stronger than the consensus expectation of a 0.3% gain, and we think further upside surprises are likely in coming months. The headline was boosted by a 0.7% jump in energy prices, but food and manufacturing goods prices also rose.

4 September 2018 Colombia's Recovery Continues, and the Fundamentals are Sound (Publication Centre)

Activity data from Colombia over the past quarter have been strong. Real GDP expanded by a relatively robust 2.8% year-over-year in Q2, and is on track to post a 3.2% increase in Q3.

4 September 2017 Recovery will Continue in H2, but Fiscal Reforms are Key (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economy likely will bounce back during the second half of this year and into 2018, after the second quarter was marred by political risk.

4 Oct 2019 Will Peru's Political Crisis Dent the Economic Recovery (Publication Centre)

Peru is now in the grip of a severe political storm that is shaking the country's foundations and darkening the already fragile economic outlook.

5 April 2017 The Brazilian Economy is Improving: Expect a Modest Q1 GDP Recovery (Publication Centre)

Brazilian February industrial production data, released yesterday, were relatively positive. Output rose 0.1% month-to-month, pushing the yearover- year rate down to -0.8% from 1.4% in January. Statistical quirks were behind February's year-over-year fall, though.

5 Feb. 2015 The Eurozone Economy is Getting Better: Cyclical Recovery Ahead (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's retail sales report indicates that preliminary Eurozone Q4 GDP data next week are likely to paint an upbeat picture of the economy. Sales rose 0.3% month-to-month in December, equivalent to 2.8% year-over-year. An upward revision to November data means that turnover increased 0.8% quarter-on- quarter, the best since the first quarter of 2005.

6 Dec 2019 Brazil's Recovery Continues, in Stark Contrast to Chile's-Temporary-Woes (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector is on the mend, but some of the key sub-sectors are struggling.

5 Oct 2020 August GDP Will Prompt the MPC to Reappraise the Recovery's Strength (Publication Centre)

August's GDP report, released on Friday, looks set to reinforce the downward pressure on gilt yields by making it even more likely that the MPC will extend its QE programme later this year.

5 February 2019 Rising Debt Servicing Costs Will Constrain any Recovery in Capex (Publication Centre)

Private non-financial corporations' profits have held up well over the last two years, despite the net negative impact of sterling's depreciation and modest increases in Bank Rate.

4 June 2019 The Official PMI has it Right Tariff hit has Derailed China's Trade Recovery (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI was steady in May, at 50.2, in contrast to the official gauge published on Friday, which dropped to 49.5, from April's 50.2.

4 July. 2016 Industrial Output in Brazil has Hit Bottom, but No Quick Recovery (Publication Centre)

Friday's Brazilian industrial production data were relatively positive. Output was unchanged month-to-month in May, and April's marginal gain was revised slightly higher. The flat monthly reading pushed year-over-year growth in output up marginally to -8.9% from -9.1%. May production rose month-to-month in two of the four major categories.

30 June 2020 Spending in Japan is Stabilising, a Proper Recovery is a Long Way Off (Publication Centre)

Retail sales in Japan rose modestly in May, after collapsing in March and April, as the government tried to put a lid on the country's Covid-19 outbreak.

30 August 2017 The Eurozone's Cyclical Recovery is Stable, Not Accelerating (Publication Centre)

While we were enjoying a rare sunny bank holiday in the U.K., data showed that Eurozone money supply growth slowed at the start of Q3. Broad money growth--M3--fell to a 10-month low of 4.5% year-over- year in July, from 5.0% in August.

30 Aug 2019 Brazil's Economy Averts Recession, but the Recovery will be Sluggish (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian economy managed to avert a technical recession over the first half of the year.

30 June. 2016 Commodities are Helping LatAm's Recovery - Brexit not a Deal-Breaker (Publication Centre)

The downturn in LatAm is finally bottoming out, but the economy of the region as a whole will not return to positive year-over-year economic growth until next year. The domestic side of the region's economy is improving, at the margin, thanks mainly to the improving inflation picture, and relatively healthy labor markets.

30 November. 2016 Recovery in Lending Unlikely to Maintain October's Momentum (Publication Centre)

October's money data show that households and firms have regained the appetite for borrowing that they lost immediately after the referendum. But the recent rise in swap rates and the deterioration in consumers' confidence likely will cut short the revival in consumer lending, while persistent Brexit uncertainty likely will continue to subdue firms' investment intentions.

31 May 2017 Argentina's Economic Recovery Continues, but Brazil's is at Risk (Publication Centre)

The outlook for Argentina is improving. We expect economic growth to remain quite strong over the next year, despite a relatively soft start to 2017 and increasing external threats in recent weeks. The INDEC index of economic activity--a monthly proxy for GDP--is volatile, rising 1.9% month-to-month in March after a 2.6% drop in February, but the underlying trend is improving.

31 August 2017 Does the Corporate Borrowing Surge Signal a Capex Recovery? (Publication Centre)

The summer usually is a quiet time for business, but seemingly not for CFOs this year. Yesterday's money and credit figures from the Bank of England showed that borrowing by private non-financial corporations has rocketed. Net finance raised by PNFC's from all sources increased by £8.9B in July, compared to an average increase of just £2.5B in the previous 12 months.

6 December 2017 Low Rates Will Continue to Spur the Industrial Recovery in Brazil (Publication Centre)

Brazilian data strengthened early in Q4, supporting the case for the COPOM to slow the pace of rate cuts. We expect the SELIC policy rate to be lowered by 50bp today, to 7.0%.

6 January 2017 Brazil's Industrial Recovery is Underway, but it is Painfully Slow (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Brazilian industrial production data continue to tell a story of a slow business cycle upturn. Output rose 0.2% month-to-month in November, after a downwardly revised 1.2% plunge in October. The year-over-year rate, though, jumped to -1.1%, from -7.3% in October. The underlying trend is now on the mend, following weakness in Q3 and early Q4. Output rose in November three of the four major categories and in 13 of the 24 sectors.

9 Oct 2020 An Update on EU Fiscal Stimulus, the Recovery Fund Faces Delay (Publication Centre)

On the surface, the EU's joint stimulus efforts are progressing nicely.

8 June 2020 Payrolls Set to Rise Again in June, but Don't Expect a Quick Full Recovery (Publication Centre)

The single most surprising U.S. economic report ever published likely is explained very simply: We know a great deal about the numbers of people losing jobs, but not much about people finding jobs.

7 Sept 2020 Brazil's Industrial Recovery Gathered Speed in July, But Risks Abound (Publication Centre)

Brazilian industrial production data released last week were upbeat. Output rose 8.0% month-to-month in July, much better than the consensus forecast for a 5.9% increase.

9 Sept. 2015 Cyclical Recovery in the Eurozone Goes from Strength to Strength (Publication Centre)

Final Q2 GDP data yesterday indicate the euro area economy was stronger than initially estimated in the first half of the year. Real GDP rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, slightly higher than the initial estimate of 0.3, following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase in Q1. Upward revisions to GDP in Italy were the key driver of the more upbeat growth picture. The revisions mean that annualised Eurozone growth is now estimated at 1.8% in the first six months of the year, up from the previous 1.4%, consistent with the bullish message from real M1 growth and the composite PMI.

7 November. 2016 Is Sterling Now Back on a Sustained Recovery Path? (Publication Centre)

Upbeat PMIs, the MPC's abandonment of its easing bias and the High Court ruling that only a parliamentary vote--and not the Prime Minister--can trigger Article 50, all helped sterling to make up some lost ground last week.

7 May 2020 More Harrowing EZ Economic Data, but When is the Recovery (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data in the euro area were true to recent form; in short, terrible.

6 November 2019 Global Monitor Will protests scupper Chile's economic recovery (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The outlook for the job market is deteriorating • EUROZONE - Markets are eyeing a bottom in EZ GDP growth • U.K. - The MPC is in wait-and-see mode until after the elections • ASIA - A spike in CPI inflation, but a still-falling PPI, in China • LATAM - Brazil's COPOM is nearly done easing

6 Nov. 2015 Brazil's Industrial Recession Deepens - Chile's Recovery in Place (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector continues to suffer, despite September's report surprising marginally on the upside. Output contracted 1.3% month-to-month in September, after a 0.9% fall in August, pushing the year over-year rate down to -10.9% down from -8.8% in August. This is the biggest drop since April 2009. Output has fallen an eye-popping -7.4% year-to-date, and in the third quarter alone activity contracted by 3.2% quarter-on-quarter, in line with our vie w for a 1.2% contraction in real GDP for the third quarter.

6 Mar 2020 Brazil's Economic Recovery to Continue, if Covid-19 Allows it (Publication Centre)

Data released on Wednesday, along with the BCB's press release on Tuesday, supported our longstanding forecast of further rate cuts in Brazil in the very near term.

6 Oct 2020 The Recovery Is Grinding to a Halt, in the face of the Second Wave (Publication Centre)

We don't take much reassurance from the upward revision to the business activity index of Markit's services PMI to 56.1, from the flash estimate, 55.1.

2 May 2019 April Trade Data Point to a Potential V-Shaped Recovery for Korea in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Korean exports continued to fall year-over-year in April, but the story isn't as bleak as the headlines suggest.

6 October 2017 The Mining Recovery is Driving Chile's Rebound, Will it Last? (Publication Centre)

Chile's growth dynamics were robust in August, according to the latest data. Production rose and consumption remained strong during most of Q3. Indeed, industrial output increased 5.1% year-over- year, up from an already strong 3.1% increase in July, and contrasting sharply with the 2% fall in Q2.

6 October 2017 The Q3 Recovery in Car Sales Will Prove to be a Dead Cat Bounce (Publication Centre)

Car sales were predictably weak in September, but they could have been a lot worse. Private registrations were down 8.8% year-over-year in the second most important month of the year.

3 September 2018 Brazil's Economy was Resilient in Q2, but the Recovery is Sluggish (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian economy enjoyed a decent Q2, with GDP rising 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, despite the disruptions caused by the truck drivers' strike, after a 0.1% decline in Q1.

6 Oct 2020 More Evidence that the Strength of the EZ Recovery is Ebbing (Publication Centre)

The PMIs have had a hard time this year.

24 Feb 2020 Covid-19 Takes out Hope of Japan's Q1 Recovery, PMIs Show (Publication Centre)

Japan's January PMIs sent a clear signal that the virus impact is not to be underestimated. The manufacturing PMI fell to 47.6 in February, from 48.8 in January, contrasting sharply with the rising headlines of last week's batch of European PMIs.

24 Apr. 2015 Cyclical recovery remains on track in the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

The preliminary April PMIs point to a continuation of the cyclical bounce, despite falling slightly from last month. The composite PMI in the Eurozone fell to 53.5 in April, down from 54.0 in March.

23 July. 2015 Slow, but Steady, Recovery in French Manufacturing This Year (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing industry in France is recovering slowly, but surely. The headline INSEE index rose to 102 in July from 101 in June, close to a post-crisis high, pointing to steady improvement for manufacturers. Our first chart shows the main leading components of the survey, indicating a modest, but positive, trend in output. The increase in sentiment in July was driven by firming new orders--especially in the export sector--pushing the new orders-to-inventory ratio to an 18-month high.

24 July 2020 Korea's Abysmal Q2 Likely was the Low, but the Recovery is Fragile (Publication Centre)

Korea's GDP report for the second quarter was a huge let-down.

24 March 2017 Q1 Consumption will be Weak, Despite February's Retail Recovery (Publication Centre)

The 1.4% month-to-month rise in retail sales volumes in February is not a game-changer for the economy's growth prospects in Q1. The increase reversed just under half of the 2.9% decline between October and January. The 1.5% fall in retail sales in the three months to February, compared to the previous three months, is the worst result in seven years.

25 April 2018 Brazil's Labour Market Recovery Has Lost Momentum, but it will Improve (Publication Centre)

In Brazil, last week's formal payroll employment report for March was decent, with employment increasing by 56K, well above the consensus expectation for a 48K gain.

24 Sept 2020 The EZ Recovery is Now Seriously Threatened by the Virus' Return (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance EZ PMI data for September conformed to our expectations.

23 Jan 2020 Korea's Scorching Q4 GDP will be Downgraded, but the Recovery is On (Publication Centre)

GDP growth in Korea surprised to the upside in the fourth quarter, with the economy expanding by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, three times as fast as in Q3, and the biggest increase in nine quarters.

22 July 2020 The Recovery in Existing Home Sales is Underway, More to Come (Publication Centre)

We remain very bullish on the housing market, given sustained 11-year highs in applications for new mortgages to finance house purchase.

2 Sept. 2015 Chile's Economic Recovery Stutters, Risks To Growth Increase (Publication Centre)

Chile's activity numbers at the beginning of Q3 were mediocre, suggesting that the economy remains sluggish. The industrial production index--comprising mining, manufacturing, and utility output--fell by 1.7% year-over-year in July, reversing a 1.6% expansion in June. A disappointing 4.5% year-over-year contraction in mining activity depressed the July headline index, following a 1.4% increase in June. The moderation in output growth was due to maintenance-related shutdowns at key processing plants, and disruptions from labor strikes, especially a three-week strike by contract workers at Codelco--the state-owned mining firm--which badly hit production.

2 Oct 2019 Hard Data Suggest the Recovery in Brazil and Chile is on Track (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial production rose 0.8% month- to-month in August, well above our call, and the consensus, for a trivial increase.

20 March 2019 High Uncertainty and Sluggish Recovery Means COPOM on Hold (Publication Centre)

Local policy drivers have remained in the spotlight in Brazil, against a background of important recent global events.

20 Oct 2020 Peru'sEconomicRecoveryContinues, the Outlook is Improving (Publication Centre)

Peru has been one of the most badly-hit LatAm countries, with Covid crushing economic activity.

21 July 2020 The Economic Recovery Continues, Despite High Rates of Covid Cases (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus ordeal continues in LatAm as a whole.

21 August. 2015 Mexico's Domestic Recovery Remains - But Oil Woes Continue (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy had a decent start to the year thanks to resilient domestic demand, but hampered by the rollover in capital spending in the oil sector and the slowdown in manufacturing activity. Economic activity expanded 2.2% year-over-year in the second quarter, down from 2.6% in the first quarter, but the underlying trend remains reasonably solid.

25 July 2019 A Recovery in Mortgage Lending is Taking Root (Publication Centre)

The recent pick-up in mortgage approvals is another sign that households are unperturbed by the risk of a no-deal Brexit.

21 March 2017 LatAm's Gradual Recovery will Ease Concerns on the Fiscal Front (Publication Centre)

Latin American markets have been relatively resilient this year, despite Fed tightening and high global political risks. The LACI index has risen more than 5% year-to-date, and the MSCI index has been trending higher since late last year.

29 July. 2015 Is EM Weakness Threatening Investment Recovery in the EZ? (Publication Centre)

Volatility in commodities and emerging markets has intensified since the beginning of July, with the stock market drama in China taking centre stage. The bubble in Chinese equities inflated without much ado elsewhere, and can probably deflate in isolation too. But the accelerating economic slowdown in EM is becoming an issue for policy makers in the Eurozone.

29 July 2020 The Good and Bad in the Recovery of Chinese Industrial Profits (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits in China continued to strengthen in June, rising by 11.5% year-over-year, marking an acceleration from 6.0% in the previous month.

28 Oct. 2015 A Clear Message from M1: The Cyclical Recovery Persists (Publication Centre)

Monetary conditions in the Eurozone continue to send a bullish message on GDP growth, and indicate an ongoing, but slow, improvement in credit growth. Broad money growth--M3--was unchanged at 4.9% year-over-year in September, after a trivial 0.1% upward revision of last month's data. The increase continues to be driven by surging narrow money rising 11.7% in September from 11.5% in August, boosted by overnight deposit growth offsetting a slight decline in currency in circulation.

29 May 2020 The EU's Recovery Fund won't Help Anyone in 2020 (Publication Centre)

As the dust settles from Wednesday's budget proposal by the EU Commission--see here--economists and investors are left with a myriad of questions.

29 Nov 2019 The Recovery in Sentiment Will Be Fleeting, if the Tories' Majority is Small (Publication Centre)

The emergence last month of a new E.U. Withdrawal Agreement that has a strong chance of being ratified by MPs appears to have given a small boost to business confidence.

3 November 2017 Brazilian Manufacturing Continued to Support the Recovery in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector continued to support the economy in Q3. The underlying tr end in output is rising and leading indicators point to further growth in the near term.

25 June. 2015 Germany Needs Stronger Private Investment to Drive the Recovery (Publication Centre)

The chaos in Greece was identified as the main culprit for yesterday's soft IFO report. The headline business climate index fell to 107.4 in July, down from 108.1 in May, driven by declines in respondents' views on the current economy and their expectations for the future. We expected a dip in the he adline IFO, but we were surprised by the fall in the manufacturing sub-index, given the firmer PMI earlier this week.

3 January 2018 Synchronized Recovery in the Andes. Inflation Continues to Fall (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent weeks have confirmed that the Andean economies retained a degree of momentum in Q4, with inflation well under con trol.

28 March 2019 China Profits will Bounce Back in March Proper Recovery is Coming (Publication Centre)

China's industrial profits tanked in January/ February, falling 14.0% year-to-date year-over-year, after a 1.9% drop year-over-year in December.

29 June. 2015 Mexican Recovery is Stuttering, but Better Days Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy hit a sticky patch in the first quarter, with confidence slipping, employment growth slowing and the downward trend in unemployment stalling. Indeed, the headline unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in May from 4.3% in April. The seasonally adjusted rate, though, was little changed at 4.4%, with a stable participation rate.

26 June 2020 High Uncertainty about the Recovery will Force Banxico to Cut Further (Publication Centre)

Mexican policymakers yesterday voted unanimously to cut the policy rate by 50bp to 5.00%, the lowest level since late 2016.

28 Jan 2020 A Real Housing Market Recovery is Finally Taking Root (Publication Centre)

Housebuilders were one of the biggest winners from the post-election relief rally in U.K. equity prices.

26 Apr. Is the Recovery in Consumer Spending Coming Off the Boil? (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in retail sales in the first quarter and the recent pick-up in the number of retailers seeking protection from creditors begs the question: are consumers retrenching, or just spending their money elsewhere?

26 May 2020 More Traumatic Data in Mexico, the Recovery is Set to be Subpar (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Mexico surprised to the upside in April, but the underlying picture has improved rapidly over recent months.

27 February 2019 More Patience from Powell, Despite the Recovery in the Stock Market (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday broke no new ground, largely repeating the message of the January 30 press conference.

27 Oct. 2015 Are the Foundations of the Recovery in House Prices Secure? (Publication Centre)

House prices look set for another growth spurt, pushing the house price-to-earnings ratio--the most widely used measure of valuation sustainability--close to levels seen shortly before the late-2000s crash. But we don't place much store by the price-to-earnings ratio. Better, more reliable indicators suggest that a higher level of house prices will prove sustainable.

UK Datanote U.K. Retail Sales, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The V-shaped retail sales recovery is unrepresentative of overall spending.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still understating the manufacturing sector's recovery.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The manufacturing recovery is slowing, not unraveling.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still at rock bottom, but other indicators suggest a gradual recovery is under way.

UK Datanote U.K. Flash PMIs, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A jobless recovery can only go so far.

UK Datanote U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A jobless recovery can only extend so far.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: The post-election recovery in confidence should support car sales soon.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still consistent with a consumer recovery in Q1.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Understating the recovery, due to its poor construction.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery continues; further gains ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: A recovery should emerge soon.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A hefty rebound, with a further recovery to come in June.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A huge decline, but timelier data point to a tentative recovery in May.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: The slow recovery of the Brazilian labor market continues.

LatAm Datanote: Mexico Retail Sales, Mexico, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stabilising, but a long and painful road to full recovery.

LatAm Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bold cut to help the economic recovery, more to come.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid progress, though the last miles of this marathon recovery will be the hardest.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation falls sharply helped, by a favourable base effect and a sluggish economic recovery.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim, due to Covid-19, but a modest recovery likely will emerge in Q3.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: A poor finish to 2019, but we expect a modest recovery in Q1.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: The gradual recovery of the labour market continues.

U.S. Datanote: NFIB Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, but still an incomplete recovery.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery from the Q4 stock market hit continues apace.

U.S. Datanote: Chicago PMI, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Likely bottoming, but no real recovery in sight.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still pointing to a recovery in demand.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still struggling, but a recovery in 2020 is in sight.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: A welcome partial rebound, but a real recovery is unlikely before the fall.

US Datanote: Empire State Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Much better, but this is the early stage of the recovery.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery continues, though not for Boeing.

US Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The housing recovery continues; more to come.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods and Advance International Trade, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing starting to rebound, but full recovery is a long way off.

US Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Bouncing along the bottom; no real recovery in sight.

US Datanote: Empire State Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery continues, but further significant near-term gains are unlikely.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A solid rebound, but still a long way to full recovery.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery continues, more to come.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: The manufacturing recovery continues, but momentum is slowing.

BLOOMBERG - And Now It's Time to Talk About the Fed (Media Centre)

With today's jobs report confirming a strong labor market recovery, it's time to turn our attention back to the Fed

Question of the Week, WC 7th Oct (Media Centre)

Are there any signs of a Chinese recovery yet? Freya Beamish discusses

Asia Webinar February 2020: Coronavirus Will Cause A Q1 GDP Contraction...But Catch-Up Growth Should Then Be Strong (Media Centre)

Topic: Coronavirus means a Contraction in Chinese GDP in Q1 Growth should rebound sharply thereafter, but the recovery will be uneven Reducing tariffs is a smart move  What measures will the authorities take to cushion demand

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery underway, but a long and uncertain way to go.

US Datanote: U.S. Pending Home Sales, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Well on the way to full recovery, unlike the rest of the economy.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: No sign of recovery, but other regional surveys are less bad.

UK Datanote: U.K. Summer Statement 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not enough to underpin a V-shaped recovery.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Higher mortgage rates cast a shadow over the strong recovery in housebuilding.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, June, Final 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery will lose momentum before long.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A logical rebound, but builders are bracing for an incomplete recovery.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by election-related indecision in the public sector; expect a recovery 2020.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still stagnant after the election, despite the recovery in business confidence.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, April, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: A total collapse in April, but tentative signs of recovery in other timelier data.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, May 2020, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sluggish recovery in activity and falling inflation point to more QE this month.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: April's total halt in activity will be followed by an incomplete recovery.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with a post-election recovery in activity and prices.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: More evidence of a strong pre-virus recovery.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery primarily driven by lower mortgage rates.

UK Datanote: U.K. Mortgage Approvals, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery simply reflecting lower mortgage rates; the election boost lies ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP & Trade, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: No V-shaped recovery here.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Services are now buckling; will it halt the recovery?

2 September. 2016 The Manufacturing PMI Overstates the Sector's Recuperation (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the rebound in the manufacturing PMI, to 53.3 in August from 48.3 in July, directly challenges our view that the economy is set to slow sharply over the coming quarters. A close look at the survey, however, suggests that the manufacturing PMI exaggerates the extent of the sector's recovery in August.

20 December 2016 Will Households Drain Housing Equity to Support Consumption? (Publication Centre)

One of the most surprising features of the economic recovery has been that households have not responded to the surge in house prices by releasing housing equity to fund consumption. Housing equity rose to 4.2 times annual disposable incomes in 2015, up from 3.7 in 2012. It has more than doubled over the last two decades.

20 February 2019 Peru's Economic Activity is Improving, Offsetting External Risks (Publication Centre)

Peru's economic recovery gathered strength late last year.

2 Oct. 2015 Economic Activity Remains Weak in Chile - But the BCCh Will Act (Publication Centre)

Chile's economic indicators for July were unreservedly weak, confirming that the economic recovery remains sluggish. The industrial production index--comprising mining, manufacturing, and utility output--fell by 5.2% year-over-year in August, after a 1.7% contraction in July. Mining production suffered a sharp 9.3% year-over-year contraction, due mainly to an 8.3% fall in copper production, as strikes and maintenance works badly hit the industry.

2 Oct 2020 Chile's Economy is Finally on the Mend, the Outlook is Improving (Publication Centre)

Chile's upbeat economic activity reports for August are consistent with economic recovery in the second half of the year, after an ugly first half.

2 June 2017 The Manufacturing Sector won't put the Economy Back on Track (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector's recovery has sped up since Q1, according to Markit's latest survey, but growth still looks too weak to prevent the overall economy from struggling again in Q2.

2 June 2020 Chinese Industry is Skating on Thin Ice, Given Sinking Export Orders (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in China continued to trudge along in May, with their post-lockdown recovery looking increasingly fragile.

2 May 2017 Economic Activity in Mexico Remains Strong, but Will Slow (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recovery has been steady in recent months, and Q1 likely will mark the end of the recession. The gradual recovery of the industrial and agricultural sectors has been the highlight, thanks to improving external demand, the lagged effect of the more competitive BRL, and the more stable political situation, which has boosted sentiment.

20 March 2018 Brazil and Chile are Strengthening Expect Further Good News this Year (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recovery is consolidating, with recent data flow confirming that the economy had an encouraging start to the year.

20 May 2020 Global Monitor How much damage is being done in the EZ labour market? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The strength of the recovery is growing • EUROZONE - A full recovery will take time, but a turning point is looming • U.K. - GDP in the U.K. won't make a full recovery in H2 • ASIA - The V-shaped rebouned in Chinese manufacturing is at an end • LATAM - Further rate cuts on the way in Mexico

21 August 2018 Chile's Fundamentals are Improving This Likely Will Offset External Risks (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q2 GDP report, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy gathered strength in the first half of the year, consolidating a strong recovery that started in Q3 2017.

21 Jan. 2015 Welcome Gain in ZEW, but Still Not Confirmed by IFO or PMIs (Publication Centre)

Investor sentiment in the Eurozone showed further signs of recovery yesterday. The ZEW expectations index rose strongly to 48.4 in January from 34.9 in December, and the leap since the trough in October ranks among the strongest rebounds ever recorded in the index.

21 June 2019 As Markets Attack, the BoJ is Caught like a Deer in the Headlights (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, BoJ policy seems to be to change none of the settings and let things unfold, hoping that the trade war doesn't escalate, that China's recovery gets underway soon, and that semiconductor sales pick up in the second half.

20 Oct 2020 China will Lose More Steam in Q4, a Full-Year GDP Drop Remains Likely (Publication Centre)

China's economic recovery remained broadly on track in the third quarter, officially, at least. GDP growth accelerated to 4.9% year-over-year, from 3.2% in the second quarter.

20 Nov 2019 BRL Pressure Should Ease, Argentina's Inflation Dips Temporarily (Publication Centre)

Prospects for further rate cuts in Brazil, due to the sluggishness of the economic recovery and low inflation, have played against the BRL in recent weeks.

20 May. 2015 Slowly Does it For Q2 Upturn In Eurozone Inflation (Publication Centre)

Final inflation in the Eurozone was confirmed at 0.0% year-over-year in April, up slightly from -0.1% in March. The recovery since the trough in January has been driven mostly by a reduced drag from lower energy prices, a trend which should continue in the second quarter.

20 May. Retailers Can't Slash Prices to Boost Demand for Much Longer (Publication Centre)

April's consensus-beating retail sales figures fostered an impression that the recovery in consumer spending is in fine fettle, even though the rest of the economy is suffering from Brexit blues. Retailers have stimulated demand, however, by slashing prices at an unsustainable rate. With import prices and labour costs now rising, retailers are set to increase prices, sapping the momentum in sales volumes.

2 February 2018 A Solid Finish to 2017 for Brazil, Pointing to Upside Risks (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production and labour reports, released this week, confirmed that the recovery remained solidly on track at the end of last year.

19 Oct 2020 Colombia's Upturn Disappointed in August, but Q4 will be Slightly Better (Publication Centre)

Evidence of weakening momentum in the economic recovery in Colombia was seen last week, alongside its regional peers and some DM economies. Low inflation, low interest rates, and the ongoing boost from a decent fiscal stimulus, all have supported the upturn since mid-Q2.

17 May 2018 Japan has Paid for Breaking the Speed Limit in H1 Last Year (Publication Centre)

The Japanese GDP report yesterday contained substantial revisions to Q4. We had expected the Q1 contraction, but the revisions recast the health of the recovery, making the domestic demand performance look much less impressive recently, with the economy struggling since the burst of growth in the first half last year.

17 Sept 2019 August IP Likely Rebounded, but the Trend is Deteriorating (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing is in recession, with few signs yet that a floor is near, still less a recovery.

18 Apr. Britain's Employment Miracle is Finally Losing its Shine (Publication Centre)

One of the most eye-catching features of the U.K.'s economic recovery has been the strength of job creation. It took seven-to-eight years for employment to return to its pre-recession peaks after the recessions of the early 1980s and 1990s. By contrast, employment rescaled its 2008 peak in mid-2012, and it has risen by a further 6% since.

17 June. 2015 FOMC to Acknowledge Rebound, but Rate Dots Likely Unchanged (Publication Centre)

The tone of today's FOMC statement likely will be different to the gloomy April missive, which began with a list of bad news: "...economic growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory factors. The pace of job gains moderated... underutilization of labor resources was little changed. Growth in household spending declined... Business fixed investment softened, the recovery in the housing sector remained slow, and exports declined."

17 July 2019 Colombia's Outlook is Improving Domestic Demand is Solid (Publication Centre)

May's activity data underline the gradual recovery in Colombia's economic growth, following signs of weakness at the start of the year.

16 Sept. 2015 Will Downbeat Sentiment Push the ECB into More QE this Year? (Publication Centre)

Economic data are telling a story of a strengthening recovery, but downbeat investor sentiment points to a more difficult environment. The headline ZEW expectations index fell to a ten-month low of 12.1 in September, from 25.0 in August. This takes sentiment back to levels not seen before QE was announced, highlighting the increasing worry that deflation risks and low growth in China will derail the recovery. We don't agree, but we can't be sure the ECB thinks the same, and risks of additional stimulus this year have increased.

17 Dec. 2015 Why are Retail Sales Losing Momentum? (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, recent retail spending surveys have been puzzlingly weak in light of the pick-up in employment growth, still-robust real wage gains and renewed momentum in the housing market. We think those surveys are a genuine signal that retail sales growth is slowing, and expect today's official figures to surprise to the downside. But retail sales account for just one-third of household spending, and, in contrast to the early stages of the economic recovery, consumers now are prioritising spending on services rather than goods.

17 January 2018 Peru's Economy Hit by Temporary Factors in Q4, Will 2018 be Better? (Publication Centre)

Monday's economic activity data from Peru signalled that the gradual recovery continues, despite November's undershoot, which was chiefly driven by temporary factors.

18 Dec 2019 Modest Growth Ahead in 2020 for Domestic Eurozone Car Sales (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday added further evidence of a slow recovery in Eurozone auto sales.

18 February 2019 A Solid End to 2018 for Colombia's Economy, no Threats, for Now (Publication Centre)

Colombia's December activity reports confirmed that quite strong retail sales last year were less accompanied by local production, which became only a minor driver of the economic recovery, as shown in our first chart.

19 February 2018 Colombia's Economy is Improving, but Fell Short of Expectations in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Colombia's GDP growth was a poor 1.6% year-over- year in Q4, down from 2.3% in Q3, despite the oil recovery and the COP's rebound since mid-year. GDP rose a modest 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, after a 0.8% increase in Q3.

19 July 2019 Politics is the Name of the Game in Mexico and Argentina (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economic and financial outlook is deteriorating rapidly and hopes of a gradual recovery over the next three-to-six months are fading away after AMLO's missteps in recent months.

19 May. Retail Sales Set to Bring Further Signs of a Consumer Slowdown (Publication Centre)

April's retail sales figures, released today, likely will show only a partial reversal of the sharp 1.3% month-to-month fall in sales volumes in March. This would reinforce the impression that the recovery in consumer spending has been becalmed by slower job growth, the intensification of the fiscal squeeze and heightened uncertainty about the economic and political outlook.

19 Feb. 2016 Even Spendthrift U.K. Consumers Will Have to Slow Down in 2016 (Publication Centre)

January's retail sales figures, released today, look set to indicate that consumers are keeping the recovery going, amid deteriorating business sentiment and faltering external trade.

19 August 2020 Global Monitor What next in Japan's economy? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The U.S. economics team is on vacation • EUROZONE - Poor EZ macro-data, but that's absolutely fine for markets • U.K. - The initial rebound in GDP is set to slow sharply through Q3 • ASIA - Japan's Q3 recovery already looks disappointingly weak • LATAM - The Latam economics team is on vacation.

18 Mar 2020 LatAm Central Banks Joining the Tide of Global Monetary Easing (Publication Centre)

The global coronavirus pandemic is hitting the LatAm economy at a particularly vulnerable time, following last year's stuttering economic recovery, temporary shocks in key economies and the effect of the global trade war.

18 Nov 2019 Colombia's Economy Remains the Star Performer in LatAm (Publication Centre)

Most of the Andean economies have been hit by the turmoil roiling the global economy in the past few quarters. But modest recovery in commodity prices in Q3, and relatively solid domestic fundamentals helped them to avoid a protracted slowdown in Q2 and most of Q3.

21 Mar. 2016 Monetary Policy Divergence in LatAm Despite Calm in Markets (Publication Centre)

No surprises from Chile's central bank last week, after leaving rates unchanged for the third consecutive month, in the light of recent data confirming the sluggish pace of the economic recovery. In the communiqué accompanying the decision, the BCCh kept their tightening bias, signaling that rates will rise in the near term.

21 Sept 2020 Inflation Risks in Argentina are Mounting, Despite the Benign Trend (Publication Centre)

The Argentinian economic recovery continues, from very depressed levels, and the rebound is confronting many setbacks.

24 Nov. 2015 Bullish PMI Survey Won't Prevent Further ECB Stimulus (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI reports repeated the message of a firm cyclical Eurozone recovery, despite investors' angst over deflation and the underwhelming Q3 GDP data earlier this month. The composite index in the zone rose to a 54-month high of 54.4 in November from 53.9 in October, lifted by strong output and solid new business growth. Our first chart shows the rise in the PMI points to slight upside risks in Q4 to the four quarter trend in real GDP growth of 0.4% per quarter.

24 Sept 2020 Near-Real-Time Data Signal Fading Consumer Services Activity (Publication Centre)

Business surveys released this week suggest the economic recovery decelerated in early September.

24 Sept 2020 PMIs Confirm Japan's Q3 Bounce, but Momentum will Fade in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Japan's economic recovery got back on track this month--just--according to yesterday's flash PMI numbers.

24 Nov. 2015 A New Political Era For Argentina - Will the Economy Recover? (Publication Centre)

Mauricio Macri, the centre-right candidate of the Cambiemos--Let's Change--coalition won Argentina's weekend presidential election. Mr. Macri, the mayor of Buenos Aires, defeated Daniel Scioli, of the ruling Front for Victory--FpV--coalition on Sunday. His victory marks the end of the 12-year Kirchnerist era, characterized by wild inflation, huge public deficits and unsustainable subsidies. If Mr. Macri lives up to his promises, Argentina, the second-largest economy in South America, will become an orthodox economy on a sustainable path. The recovery will come, we think, but it will be a long and challenging process.

24 May 2018 April Existing Home Sales Likely to Signal that Activity has Peaked (Publication Centre)

The recovery in existing home sales appears to have stalled, at best.

24 Mar. February Retail Sales to Highlight Weakening Trend in Spending (Publication Centre)

The economic recovery would have lost more momentum last year had consumers not delved so deeply into their pockets. Real household spending increased by 0.7% and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and Q4 respectively, in contrast to investment and exports, which fell in both quarters.

24 March 2017 Rapid Disinflation will Allow the BCB to Ease More Quickly (Publication Centre)

Brazil has made a convincing escape from high inflation in the past few months, laying the groundwork for a gradual economic recovery and faster cuts in interest rates. Mid-March CPI data, released this week, confirmed that inflation pressures eased substantially this month.

24 May 2017 The Eurozone Data Deluge Shows an Economy in Rude Health (Publication Centre)

Investors in the Eurozone were faced with a busy economic calendar yesterday, but the message from the plethora of survey data was simple. The economic recovery in the euro area is strengthening, and risks to GDP growth are firmly tilted to the upside in coming quarters.

24 Sept. 2015 PMIs Point to Stable and Strong Eurozone GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

PMI data yesterday provided some relief to anxious investors, despite a modest drop in the headline. The composite PMI in the Eurozone fell to 53.9 in September from 54.3 in August, driven by slight falls in both manufacturing and services. Assuming no major changes to the advance September reading--usually a fair bet--the PMI rose marginally in Q3, pointing to a continuation of the cyclical recovery.

25 Apr. Preliminary GDP Data to Confirm Q1 Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of first quarter GDP likely will confirm that the economic recovery lost considerable pace in early 2016. Bedlam in financial markets in January and business fears over the E.U. referendum are partly responsible for the slowdown. The deceleration, however, also reflects tighter fiscal policy, uncompetitive exports, and the economy running into supply-side constraints.

26 June 2020 The Covid Surge is Starting to Hit the Economic Data, More to Come (Publication Centre)

The extent to which the Covid wave in the South and West--plus a few states in other regions--will constrain the recovery is unknowable at this point.

26 May. Second Estimate of Q1 GDP to Highlight Brexit Risk Damage (Publication Centre)

This morning's second estimate of Q1 GDP likely will restate the preliminary estimate of a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter rise, confirming that the economic recovery has lost momentum since last year. Meanwhile, the new expenditure breakdown is set to show that growth remained extremely dependent on households and will bring more evidence that businesses held back from investing, ostensibly due to Brexit concerns.

26 Nov 2019 The IFO in Germany Still Tells a Story of Imminent Recession (Publication Centre)

The November IFO report suggests that the headline indices are on track for a tepid recovery in Q4 as a whole, but the central message is still one of downside risks to growth

26 July 2018 The Climate Still isn't Right for Mortgage Lending to Recover (Publication Centre)

House purchase mortgage approvals by the main high street banks continued to recover in June, rising to a nine-month high of 40.5K, from 39.5K in May. June approvals, however, merely matched their postreferendum average, and the chances of a more substantial recovery are slim.

26 Jan. 2016 Housing Wealth About to Breach the Pre-Crash Peak (Publication Centre)

Sometime very soon, likely in the second quarter of this year, the stock of net housing wealth will exceed the $13.1T peak recorded before the crash, in the fourth quarter of 2005. At the post-crash low, in the first quarter of 2009, net housing equity had fallen by 53%, to just $6.2T. The recovery began in earnest in 2012, and over the past year net housing wealth has been rising at a steady pace just north of 10%. With housing demand rising, credit conditions easing and inventory still very tight, we have to expect home prices to keep rising at a rapid pace.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: The modest industrial recovery continues, but Covid-19 will make things worse.

26 August 2020 Global Monitor The virus is loosening its grip in LatAm (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The second wave is easing, but it isn't over yet • EUROZONE - August EZ PMIs were poor, but not terrible • U.K. - Inflation will fall further, despite the jump in July • ASIA - A narrow recovery for China's economy in Q3 • LATAM - Weak growth and low inflation as far as the eye can in LatAm

24 June 2020 Global Monitor The virus is back in Germany (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The recovery continues, but weak spots are emerging • EUROZONE - We are still not very excited about the EZ TLTROs • U.K. - The MPC will do more QE in Q4 • ASIA - Is a second wave coming to East Asia? • LATAM - Fiscal and monetary policy to the rescue in Latam?

24 June 2020 Don't Fixate on the PMI Remaining Below 50, GDP is Rebounding (Publication Centre)

Both business surveys and unconventional activity indicators suggest that the recovery from the Covid-19 shock has sped up in June, after a shaky start in May.

23 August 2017 All Systems Go for Italy's Economy, but Don't ask About the Long Run (Publication Centre)

The performance of Italy's economy in the first half of 2017 proves that the strengthening euro area recovery is a tide lifting all the r egion's boats.

23 July. 2015 Mortgage Demand Signals Rising Third Quarter Home Sales (Publication Centre)

If the recovery in existing homes hadn't been interrupted by the taper tantrum, in the spring of 2013, sales by now would likely be running at an annualized rate in excess of 6M. The rising trend in sales from late 2010 through early 2013 was strong and stable, as our first chart shows, but the decline was steep after the Fed signalled it would soon slow the pace of QE, and it was made temporarily worse by the severe late fall and early winter weather.

23 June 2017 Will French Domestic Demand in Rebound in Q2? (Publication Centre)

The June batch of the French statistical office's business surveys continues to signal a firming cyclical recovery. The aggregate business index rose to cyclical high of 106 in June from a revised 105 in May, continuing an uptrend that began in the middle of 2016.

22 June 2020 Retail Sales will be a Poor Bellwether for Households' Overall Spending (Publication Centre)

We advise strongly against concluding from the above-consensus rebound in retail sales in May that the economy is embarking on a healthy, V-shaped recovery, from Covid-19.

22 June 2020 Bold Fiscal and Monetary Measures to Fight Chile's Pandemic (Publication Centre)

Economic activity in Chile in the first half of the year is now a write-off, due to Covid-19. The country is in a deep recession, and the impact of lockdowns on labour markets and businesses will cause long-lasting economic damage, which will hold back the recovery.

22 Apr. 2015 Sustained job gains are key to Eurozone consumers sentiment (Publication Centre)

Advance April consumer survey data will likely confirm that households remain the standout driver of the cyclical recovery in the euro area. We think the headline EC consumer sentiment index rose to -1.0 in April from -3.7 in March.

22 July 2020 Don't Fret About the New Weakness in Korea's Partial Trade Data (Publication Centre)

Korea's fledgling export recovery seemingly hit a roadblock this month.

23 June 2020 The Treasury has Cash on Hand to Cut VAT, but Should Focus Elsewhere (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak looks set to announce more fiscal stimulus next month to reinforce the economic recovery, despite recent record levels of public borrowing.

23 May 2017 How to Lift French GDP Growth to Above 1.5% Year-over-year (Publication Centre)

The recovery in the French economy since the sovereign debt crisis has been lukewarm. Growth in domestic demand, excluding inventories, has averaged 0.4% quarter-on-quarter since 2012. This comp ares with 0.8%-to-1.1% in the two major business cycle upturns in the 1990s and from 2000s before the crisis.

24 August. 2016 Mexican Consumers' Spending Still Robust, but Set to Slow in H2 (Publication Centre)

Mexican consumers' spending improved toward the end of Q2. Retail sales jumped by 1.0% month-to-month in June, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 9.4%, from an already solid 8.6% in May. Still, private spending lost some momentum in the second quarter as a whole, rising by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, after a 3.8% jump in Q1. A modest slowdown in consumers' spending had to come eventually, following surging growth rates in the initial phases of the recovery.

24 February 2017 Is Sterling's Depreciation a Blessing or a Curse for Profits? (Publication Centre)

This week's GDP figures showed that firms invested only sparingly in 2016, but their financial fortunes have been bolstered by a recovery in profits. The gross operating surplus of all firms rose by 4.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, the biggest increase for 11 quarters. This pushed the share of GDP absorbed by profits up to 21.3%, just above its 60-year average of 21.2%.

24 February 2017 The BCB Remains on Track to Deliver More Easing this Year (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank conformed to expectations on Wednesday, cutting the Selic rate by 75 basis points to 12.25%, without bias. Overall, the BCB recognises that the economic signals have been mixed in recent weeks, but the Copom echoed our view that the data are pointing to a gradual stabilisation and, ultimately, a recovery in GDP growth later this year.

23rd September 2020 Global Monitor China's economy is recovering, on the surface (Publication Centre)

• U.S.-Is outcome based forward guidance on QE coming? • EUROZONE - The ECB's optimistic line on core inflation won't hold • U.K.- We still expect more QE, now in December • ASIA - China's economy is gaining momentum, on the surface • LATAM - LatAm's recovery is strengthening

23 September 2016 French Manufacturing Confidence Rebounds Solidly in September (Publication Centre)

French manufacturers recovered their optimism towards the end of Q3. The headline INSEE manufacturing sentiment index rose to 103 in September, from 101 in August, and the composite business confidence gauge also increased. A rebound in transport equipment firms' own production expectations was the key driver of the recovery.

23 Sept. 2015 Expansions don't die of old age - the Fed kills them, with rates (Publication Centre)

The theory of spontaneous combustion of the U.S. economy appears to be making something of a comeback, if our inbox and market chat is to be believed. The core idea here is that expansions die of old age, and can be helped on their way to oblivion by factors like falling corporate earnings and rising inventory. The current recovery, which began in June 2009 and is now 63 months old, already looks a bit long-in-the-tooth.

23 Sept. 2015 Slow Growth in China is a Risk, but Not the Whole Story in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Expectations that the ECB will respond to weakening growth in China with Additional stimulus mean that survey data will be under particular scrutiny this week. The consensus thinks the Chinese manufacturing PMI--released overnight--will remain weak, but advance PMIs in the Eurozone should confirm that the cyclical recovery remained firm in Q3. We think the composite PMI edged slightly lower to 54.0 in September from 54.3 in August, consistent with real GDP growth of about 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3.

16 Sept 2020 ZEW and Sentix Point to a Leap in the EZ PMIs, We don't Buy it (Publication Centre)

Market-based sentiment indicators in the Eurozone are becoming increasingly detached from the reality of the threat of resurgent Covid-19 and the danger this poses to the strength of the economic recovery.

16 May 2018 Better Fundamentals and Fading Political Risk to Support Colombia (Publication Centre)

Colombia's Q1 GDP report confirms that the economy is improving. Leading indicators and survey data suggest that the recovery will continue over the second half of the year.

*September 2020 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The EZ Recovery Is Threatened By The Virus Return...Will The ECB Blink?

*September 2020 - Latin America Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Latam's Recovery Started In Late Q2...But The Covid Shock Will Be Long-Lasting

01 Feb. 2016 Mexico's Mining Sector Still a Drag, Services Doing the Work (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy lost some momentum in Q4, due mainly to weakness in industrial and agricultural activity, but this was partly offset by the strength of the services sector as consumers' spending again carried the economic recovery. Real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, after a 0.8% expansion in Q3, the tenth consecutive increase. Year-over-year growth dipped marginally to 2.5% from 2.6% in Q3, but the underlying trend remains stable. In 2015 as a whole the economy expanded by 2.5%, up from 2.3% in 2014.

*September 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Too Soon For China To Claim A Full Recovery...A Tough Start For Japan's New Prime Minister...The Recovery In Korean Exports Is Holding Up, Just...Still No Let-Up In India's Covid-19 Outbreak

*Sept. 2015 - Eurozone Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Ignore the Chinese deflation panic......The cyclical recovery is on track, and inflation is rising

*May 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Recovery To Be Protracted, Despite Policymakers' Efforts...Consumers Will Be Cautious Long After The Lockdown Ends

*Nov. 2015 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Recovery shifting to a lower gear...but price pressures will force rate hikes next year

*October 2019 - Latin America Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Latam Recovery Remains Subpar...But Low Inflation Is Allowing Interest Rate Cuts

02 Feb. 2016 EZ Public Spending will Support GDP Growth in 2016 (Publication Centre)

Economic theory tells us that government spending should be counter-cyclical, but recent experience in the Eurozone tells a slightly different story. The contribution to GDP growth from government spending rose during the boom from 2004 to 2007, and remained expansionary as the economy fell off the cliff in 2008. As the economy slowed again following the initial recovery, the sovereign debt crisis hit, driving a severe pro-cyclical fiscal hit to the economy.

03 Mar. 2016 Construction Slowdown is Symptomatic of Wider Malaise (Publication Centre)

The revival in the construction sector is slowing on all fronts as the fiscal squeeze intensifies, business confidence fades and the recovery in housebuilding loses momentum. These headwinds are likely to ensure that construction output only holds steady this year, thereby contributing to the broader economic slowdown.

06 Jan. 2016 The Services PMI isn't the Final Word on the Economy's Health (Publication Centre)

Unanticipated movements in the Markit/CIPS services PMI often provoke big market reactions, despite its shortcomings as an indicator of the pace of growth. We suspect December's PMI, released today, could surprise to the downside, reversing most of its rise in November to 55.9 from 54.9 in October. Regardless, we place more weight on the official data, which is more comprehensive and shows clearly the recovery is slowing.

07 Jan. 2016 Solid EZ Economic Data Amid Rising Volatility in Equity Markets (Publication Centre)

Increased volatility has given equity investors a torrid start to the year, but economic reports have been strong, and yesterday's PMIs were no exception. The composite index in the Eurozone rose marginally to 54.3 in December from 54.2 in November, slightly higher than the initial estimate of 54.0. This is consistent with a continuing cyclical recovery, and real GDP growth of 0.4%-to-0.5% in Q4, modestly higher than the 0.3% rise in the third quarter.

08 Jan. 2016 Sterling, Not EM Weakness, Will Hold Exports Back (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor argued in a speech on Thursday that the U.K.'s economic recovery is threatened by a "dangerous cocktail" of overseas risks, including slowing growth in the BRICs--Brazil, Russia, India, and China--and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Exports are set to struggle this year, but the strong pound, not weakness in emerging markets, will be the main drag.

06 Jan. 2016 Spotlight Back on the ECB after Soft Eurozone Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Disappointing inflation data remain a critical dark spot in the context of otherwise solid evidence of a firming cyclical recovery. Advance data indicate that inflation was unchanged at a mere 0.2% year-over-year in December, with falling food inflation and a dip in services inflation offsetting easing deflation in energy prices. Headline inflation likely will be volatile in coming months. Base effects will push up the year-over-year rate in energy price inflation further in Q1, but we are wary that continued declines in food inflation could offset this effect.

05 October. 2016 Weakness in Brazil Industrial Production will be Temporary (Publication Centre)

The outlook for Brazil's industrial economy is better than at any time since before the crisis. But data released this week highlighted that the recovery will be slow and bumpy.

05 Feb. 2016 Bonds Signal an Imminent EZ Recession, but Don't Take the Bait (Publication Centre)

Strong real M1 growth suggests the cyclical recovery is in good shape. But recent economic data indicate GDP growth slowed in Q4, and survey evidence deteriorated in January. This slightly downbeat message, however, is a far cry from the horror story told by financial markets. The recent collapse in stock-to-bond returns extends the decline which began in Q2 last year, signalling the Eurozone is on the brink of recession.

05 Jan. 2016 Credit Flows Aren't Strengthening Enough to Prevent a Slowdown (Publication Centre)

November's money and credit figures brought welcome news that the recovery in bank lending is strengthening. This revival should continue, now that banks have completed most of the work required to improve their capital positions. But we doubt lending will recover quickly enough to prevent the economic recovery slowing in 2016, as the downward pressure on growth from the fiscal squeeze and the strong pound builds.

*May 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Unsustainable V-Shaped Recovery...Japan's Q1 GDP Contraction Is Just A Taster...Korea's Grim April Exports Is A Warning Shot...India's Lockdown Will Kill Q2, Despite Relaxation

*May 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China recovery falters...and now tariffs...Japan's Q1 gdp growth was a mirage; Korean exports are turning the corner, just...India's status quo vote won't turn growth around

*January 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China: Manuf. Green Shoots; Household Pain...Japan's Fiscal Package Faces Capacity Constraints...Korea's Q4 GDP Bump Is Iffy, But The Recovery Is On...Food Inflation In India Isn't Just About Onions

*January 2019 - Latin America Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Recovery Gathered Speed in Q4...But External Chaos Has Hit Domestic Markets

*January 2020 - Latin America Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Gradual Economic Recovery Continues...But Downside Risks Prevail

*February 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Expect a Rare Q/Q Fall in Chinese GDP In Q1...A Technical Recession In Japan is on the Cards...The Real Hit to Korean Trade will Start This Month...Post-Virus in Oil Will Help India's Recovery

*August 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Recovery Will Lose Momentum In The Autumn...As Employment And Capex Fall And Fiscal Support Fades

*April 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Is This Really The Recovery For China?...Japan Catches A Cold;...Q1 Will Be Poor, But The BOK Is Set For A Long Pause

*April 2020 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Covid-19 Tsunami Hits Then EZ Economy...When Is The Recovery?

*August 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Chia faces a u-shaped recovery..Japan's domestic demand strentgh is fragile...The bank of Korea is likely to pause, for now...Expect a respectable Q2 GDP rebound in India

*July 2018 - Latin America Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Latam's recovery continues...but external threats have increased lately

*July 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Recovery Will Lose Steam In H2...Tokyo's Second Wave Is Unlike The First, Good...A Capex Correction In Korea Is Imminent...India Is Making Life Harder For Itself

*June 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Recovery To Be Protracted, Despite Policymakers' Efforts...Falling Employment And Capex Will Limit The Rebound In H2

*March 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Two-Quarter Recession Now Is Unavoidable...Bolder Stimulus Is Needed To Secure A H2 Recovery

*May 2018 - Latin America Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Latamrecovery continues...but the em financial rout has dented expectations

*June 2017 - Latin America Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

LatAm economic activity is stabilizing...but the recovery will be modest in Q3.

*July 2020 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Southern Covid Wave Will Subside In August...But Real Damage Has Been Done To The Recovery

*July 2020 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The EZ Is Winning The Fight Against Covid-19 But The Economic Recovery Will Remain Slow And Uneven

*July 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Recovery Has Gathered Momentum Since Early June...But Falling Employment And Capex Rule Out A V-Shape

08 Mar. 2016 Is the Economy Better Placed to Withstand the Fiscal Squeeze? (Publication Centre)

The consensus view that the recovery won't lose more momentum this year seems to assume that the U.K. economy is better placed to deal with the intensification of the fiscal squeeze than earlier this decade. We do not share this optimism.

1 Apr. 2015 Tightening Bias Remains as Chile's Inflation Forecast is Increased (Publication Centre)

Chile's economic sector survey, released on Monday, provides further evidence that the cyclical recovery in the economy continues, albeit at a moderate pace. On the demand side, the rebound is still in place, with retail sales jumping 2.0% month-to-month in February and the underlying trend firm.

15 Apr. 2015 QE remains uncontested, but will be challenged later this year (Publication Centre)

We expect the ECB to leave its main interest rates, and the scope and size of QE, unchanged at today's meeting. The governing council will recognize that the cyclical recovery is gathering momentum, but also note that inflation is still uncomfortably low.

15 Apr. 2016 Chile's Central Bank Holds Rates and Relaxes its Tightening Bias (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank left rates unchanged on Tuesday for the fourth consecutive month, as recent data confirmed the sluggish pace of the economic recovery and inflation edges down closer to the target range. In the statement accompanying the decision, the BCCh kept its tightening bias, saying that the normalisation of monetary policy needs to continue at a data-dependent pace, in order to achieve its 3% target.

15 Dec. 2014 Stocks Should Start Well in 2015, But Much Still Hinges on the ECB (Publication Centre)

The equity market this year has been a story of two halves. Hopes of a sustainable economic recovery pushed the benchmark Eurozone equity index to an 7.5% increase in the first six months of the year.

14 March 2017 Commodity Prices won't Alter the Improving LatAm Picture (Publication Centre)

The medium-term outlook in most LatAm economies is improving, though economic activity is likely to remain anaemic in the near term. The gradual recovery in commodity prices is supporting resource economies, while the post-election surge in global stock prices has boosted confidence. But country-specific domestic considerations are equally relevant; the growth stories differ across the region.

14 July 2017 Brazilian Consumption Slowed in Q2, but it will Rebound in H2 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic situation has improved this year, and we still expect the recovery to continue over the second half, despite recent political volatility and soft Q2 data.

13 Oct. 2015 Construction to Push Up EZ GDP Growth in Coming Quarters? (Publication Centre)

Households remain the key driver of the cyclical recovery in the Eurozone. We have seen, so far, little sign that investment will be able convincingly to take over the baton if momentum in consumers' spending slows. The average rate of growth of investment since 2013 has been 0.5%, about two-thirds of the pace seen in previous cyclical upturns. Weakness in construction--about 50% of total euro area investment--has been one of the key factors behind of the under performance.

13 September 2017 Brazilian Consumers' Spending set to Keep Rising Steadily (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday in Brazil are consistent with our view that private consumption will continue to drive the recovery over the second half, offsetting the ongoing weakness in private investment.

14 February 2017 Global Manufacturing Picks Up Pace, Are Good News for LatAm? (Publication Centre)

More evidence indicating that the recovery in global industrial activity is underway and gaining momentum- has poured in. In particular, trade data from China, one of LatAm's biggest trading partners, was stronger than the market expected last month. Both commodity import and export volumes increased sharply in January, and this suggests better economic conditions for China's key trading partners.

15 Feb. 2016 Upbeat Q4 GDP Headline, but Private Demand Likely Slowed (Publication Centre)

Eurozone GDP data last Friday suggest the cyclical recovery continued at the end of last year. Real GDP in euro area rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, the same as in Q3, lifted by growth in all the major economies. This was in line with the consensus forecast, but noticeably higher than implied by monthly industrial production and retail sales data.

15 Jan. 2016 Equity Price Drop Not Yet Big Enough to Darken Growth Outlook (Publication Centre)

The FTSE 100 fell further yesterday, briefly to levels not seen since November 2012, but its drop over recent months is not a convincing signal of impending economic disaster. The economic recovery is likely to slow further, but this will reflect the building fiscal squeeze and the sterling-related export hit much more than the wobble in market sentiment.

16 June. 2015 Manufacturing is Struggling, but it Won't Get the Fed off the Hook (Publication Centre)

Another month, another sluggish performance in the manufacturing sector. Even a third straight big jump in auto output was unable to rescue the May numbers, and aggregate output fell by 0.2%. The trend in output has been broadly flat over the past six months or so, and we see little prospect of any sustained near-term recovery.

16 Mar. 2015 Legacy of the Crisis Still Holding Back Loan Growth in the Periphery (Publication Centre)

Consumers' spending has staged an impressive recovery in the Eurozone, and remains the key driver of accelerating GDP growth. Outside Germany, however, households have struggled, and are still faced with tight credit conditions.

16 May 2017 Eurozone Reforms Likely are Coming, but Patience is Needed (Publication Centre)

Mr. Macron will be in Berlin today with the message that France wants a strong Eurozone and a tight relationship with Germany. Friendly overtures between Paris and Berlin are good news for investors; they reduce political uncertainty while increasing the chance that the economic recovery will continue. But it is too early to get excited about closer fiscal coordination, let alone a common EZ fiscal policy and bond issuance.

16 June 2020 China's Sturdy Q2 Rebound Spells GDP Upgrade, but at Q3's Expense (Publication Centre)

China's post-lockdown recovery broadly has surprised this quarter, particularly in the industrial sector.

15 Sept 2020 Brazil's Economic Upturn Continues, but Momentum will Fade Soon (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic recovery continues, according to the relatively upbeat data released in recent days.

15 June 2020 Italy's Economy is in Dire Straits, but BTPs Should be Shielded (Publication Centre)

Italy's economy was in trouble before the Covid-19 hammer-blow. The new government's ill-fated threat in 2018 to leave the Eurozone, unless Brussels allowed a looser budget, threw the economy into a technical recession, from which it never made a convinicing recovery.

15 Nov 2019 Banxico Cut Rates, Brazil's Economy was Firing on all Cylinders in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The two biggest economies in the region have taken divergent paths in recent months, with the economic recovery strengthening in Brazil, but slowing sharply in Mexico.

13 Nov 2019 Japan's Pending Stimulus Marks a Return to the Bad Old Days (Publication Centre)

PM Abe last week asked the cabinet to put together a package of measures in a 15-month budget aimed at bolstering GDP growth through productivity enhancement, in addition to the shorter-term goal of disaster recovery.

13 June 2018 Mexico's Manufacturing Activity in April was Weak, but it Will Improve (Publication Centre)

Mexico's industrial recovery, which began in late Q4, lost momentum at the start of the second quarter.

1 September 2017 Banxico's QIR Report is Upbeat, But Rates are on Hold Until 2018 (Publication Centre)

Banxico's Quarterly Inflation Report--QIR--for Q2 2017, published this week, confirmed that the central bank has become more upbeat about the economic recovery and the outlook for inflation. Banxico believes that the balance of risks to inflation and growth are neutral.

10 October 2018 Why aren't Households Draining Plentiful Housing Equity? (Publication Centre)

The economy's recovery from the 2008/09 recession has been weaker than after the previous two downturns partly because households have not depleted housing equity to fund consumption.

10 Sept 2019 What are EZ Investor Sentiment Data Telling You, if Anything (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday suggest that EZ investor sentiment is on track for a modest recovery in Q3.

1 July. 2016 EZ Inflation Will Edge Higher, Regardless of Political Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone escaped deflation last month, and we doubt it will return in this business cycle. Inflation rose to 0.1% year-over-year in June, up from -0.1% in May; it was lifted chiefly by the gradual recovery in oil and other global commodity prices. Energy prices fell 6.5% in June, up from a 8.4% fall in May, and we think the recovery will accelerate in coming months.

1 July. 2016 Brexit Vote Prompts a Rate Hike in Mexico - the MXN Rallies, for Now (Publication Centre)

Mexico's central bank, Banxico, capitulated to the sharp MXN depreciation yesterday and increased interest rates by 50bp, for the second time this year, in a bid to support the currency. Raising rates to 4.25% was a brave step, as the economic recovery remains sluggish, thanks mostly to external headwinds. The hike demonstrates that policymakers are extremely worried about the decline in the MXN and its lagged effect on inflation.

1 December 2017 Will the Improvement in Brazil's External Accounts Continue? (Publication Centre)

External conditions continue to favour Brazil. The recovery in domestic demand in the world's major economies, particularly the rebound in business investment, has driven a gradual revival of global exports.

1 July 2020 Global Monitor The virus is back in Germany (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Downside risks loom for growth in Q3 • EUROZONE - Solid M1 data points to a strengthening EZ recovery • U.K. - No major breakout in sight for Cable • ASIA - India is reopening, but risks remain high • LATAM - Mexico's economy is on the ropes; further rate cuts are coming

11 July 2017 Political Risk Return this Week in Brazil, but a Catastrophe is Unlikely (Publication Centre)

Political risks in Brazil recently have simmered alongside the modest cyclical recovery, but they are now increasing. President Michel Temer's future remains hard to predict as circumstances change by the day.

11 Nov. 2015 The Revival in North Sea Oil Production Won't Last (Publication Centre)

The large unexpected surge in oil and gas output this year has boosted the overall economic recovery significantly. But this looks like the last hurrah for a sector of the U.K. economy in terminal decline.

12 July. 2016 Brazil and Argentina are Both Hurting, but Healing has Begun (Publication Centre)

Brazil and Argentina, South America's biggest economies are going through a metamorphosis. Brazil is emerging from its recession and a modest recovery is on the horizon. Exports have rebounded, thanks to the lagged effect of the BRL's sharp sell-off last year, and confidence has improved significantly in recent months. The likelihood that interim President Michel Temer will stay on as head of Brazil's government has also helped to boost sentiment.

12 September 2018 Wage Growth Won't Remain Above 3% this Year, Despite July's Leap (Publication Centre)

It's tempting to conclude that the pick-up in year over-year growth in average weekly wages, excluding bonuses, to a three-year high of 3.1% in July, from 2.8% in June, signals that employees' bargaining power has strengthened and that a sustained wage recovery now is under way.

13 July. 2015 Industrial Production in Mexico stalled in May - But no panic, yet (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest industrial production figures, released on Friday, showed that the recovery is stuttering. May output fell 0.9% year-over-year, down from the 1.2% gain in April. Total production was depressed by a 1.5% month-to-month drop in construction output, after two consecutive increases.

12 January 2018 Inflation in Brazil Ended 2017 Below the Target Range, 2018 Will be Fine (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil ended 2017 well under control, despite December's modest overshoot. This will allow the BCB to cut rates further in Q1 to underpin the economic recovery.

12 Jan. 2016 Stable Eurozone GDP Growth and Higher Inflation in 2016? (Publication Centre)

The recent cyclical upturn in the EZ began in the first quarter of 2013. GDP growth has accelerated almost uninterruptedly for the last two years to 1.5% year-over-year in Q3, despite the Greek debt crisis and slower growth in emerging markets. Overall we think the recovery will continue with full-year GDP growth of about 1.6%. But we also think the business cycle is maturing, characterised by stable GDP growth and higher inflation, and we see the economy slowing next year.

12 Dec. 2014 Mexico's Data have been Upbeat but Downside Risks are Growing (Publication Centre)

Recent Mexican data have been upbeat, supporting our view that a gradual recovery is underway. In the key auto sector, for example, production increased 11.4% year-over-year in November, while exports rose 5.8% year-over-year in October.

12 Jan. 2016 Drop in November Production to Set the Tone for Q4 GDP (Publication Centre)

November's industrial production figures, released today, look set to surprise the consensus to the downside, underscoring our view that the economic recovery is continuing to lose momentum. Moreover, with sterling remaining uncompetitive, despite depreciating over recent weeks, and lower oil prices making extracting oil from the North Sea unprofitable, the industrial sector likely will impede the economic recovery further in 2016.

26 Nov. 2015 The Chancellor Leaves the Fiscal Shackles Firmly in Place (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor used the Autumn Statement to shift the composition of the fiscal consolidation slightly away from spending cuts and towards tax hikes. But in overall macroeconomic terms, he changed little. The fiscal stance is still set to be extremely tight in 2016 and 2017, ensuring that the economic recovery will lose more momentum.

25 Sept 2020 The IFO and INSEE Data are More Nuanced than the PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national survey data painted a more nuanced picture of the recovery in the major Eurozone economies than the warning sent by the PMIs earlier in the week; see here.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Steady Q4 GDP growth in China masks respectable q/q rebound. Signs of recovery in China's industrial complex, but for how long? China's households continue to struggle. China's FAI growth shows rebuilding confidence around the Phase One deal. Japan's November tertiary index suggests October plunge was more tax than typhoon. January sees the first of many BoK "holds" this year.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 18 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's housing recovery faces headwinds.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 August 2020 (Publication Centre)

This should be as high as it gets for Japanese inflation for a while, No significant economic damage from Japan's second wave, just yet, The recovery in Korean exports remains on track, PPI deflation in Korea eases for a second straight month

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 August 2020 (Publication Centre)

The worst--for the economy--is over in Japan, but the recovery will be muted

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

PPI inflation in Japan likely has peaked... expect steeper drops in coming months. China's property recovery is spreading to more cities.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

A questionably stable monthly increase in Chinese production. Retail sales in China are back in the black, but not in volume terms. The recovery in manufacturing capex in China is starting to catch-up to the tertiary sector.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15th October 2020 (Publication Centre)

September setback will delay China's exit from PPI deflation to Q2. Falling pork prices in China mask a welcome rebound in services inflation. The second wave only muted Japan's services recovery in Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's consensus-beating Q2 GDP signals that it is done easing. Chinese industry drove the Q2 rebound... now comes the hard part. The recovery in manufacturing capex in China continues to disappoint. The upward momentum in China's property market is unlikely to last. The BoK held, but Governor Lee's rhetoric suggests it should've cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's PMI hit by renewed trade wars, while domestic demand shows signs of slowing. The fledgling recovery in Korean exports lost steam in June.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade balance should recover as domestic weakness sets in; Japan's manufacturing PMI undermines H2 recovery hopes; Japan's services PMI paints a damning picture of Q2; Korea's export recovery from the April low will be more gradual than the descent; A lot more downside left for PPI deflation in Korea before Q3 trough

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 August 2020 (Publication Centre)

The delayed recovery of private manufacturers suggests upside risks to China's Q3 GDP. Extension of Japan's furlough scheme will only delay--not reverse--the virus hit to jobs. Japan's already-grim Q2 GDP report looks set for a downgrade next week. Korea's Q2 GDP receives a modest upgrade, but all eyes are on the second-wave threat to Q3. Ignore the headline, Korea's export recovery remained on track in August. Korean manufacturers are shrugging off the second wave, for now.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's firms are done hiring. Tokyo inflation points to uptick in national gauge, driven by non-core effects. Japan's start to Q4 goes from bad to worse, as industrial production tanks in October. Still far too soon to call time on Korea's IP recovery, despite the October setback. Governor Lee attempts to manage 2020 expectations, as the BoK stands pat after the October cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs suggest the private sector is recovering ahead of SoEs. China's non-manufacturing PMI again masks construction/services cross currents. Japan's industrial production continues to languish. OK so now Japanese households are front-loading spending. Korean IP corrects from the bumper July; the momentum from the Q2 recovery is waning.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japanese labour data show early signs of virus hit. Japan's industrial production in a slow recovery... pre-virus. Japan's retail sales still trying to make up lost ground after the tax hike. Tokyo prices already showing signs of virus hit? Korean industrial production wobbles before virus hit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's recovery is on track--just--with its second wave receding. Japan's construction sector rebounded modestly at the start of Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade balance continues to struggle with oil gains and post-tax hike recovery. Activity index shows downside risks to Q4 GDP.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

A two-tiered economic recovery is emerging in Japan. PPI deflation in Korea will soon bottom out

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese production surprises in April, as catch-up growth and inventory build continue; Disappointing sales headline in China masks respectable short-term trends; Recovery in secondary investment in China still lagged behind tertiary capex; PPI deflation has largely bottomed out, but don't expect a quick exit

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Job losses in the over-60 group pull Korea's unemployment rate higher in December. Japanese M2 growth holds steady in December. Still no clear signs of a recovery in machine tool orders in Japan.

9 October 2019 Global Monitor A general election in the U.K. is on the way, but who will win? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The tide is turning for the worse in the U.S. labour market • EUROZONE - Looking for bright spots in German manufacturing • U.K. - The Tories are ahead in the polls, but the gap will narrow in Q4 • ASIA - What is China's strategy in the trade wars? • LATAM - The recovery in Brazil continues, but it is stalling in Mexico

9 Sept 2020 Caution Urged... The Slump in Japanese Wages is Far from Over (Publication Centre)

The escalation of the second wave of Covid-19 in Japan in July did little to stop the recovery in labour cash earnings growth.

26 Oct. 2015 PMIs Point to Firm GDP Growth Ahead in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Friday's PMIs gave the first hint of Q4 growth in the Eurozone, and continue to tell a story of a stable cyclical recovery. The composite PMI in the Eurozone rose 54.0 in October from 53.6 in September, mainly due to a rise in the services index, to 54.2 from 53.7. Assuming the PMI remains unchanged over the remainder of the quarter, the survey indicates solid GDP growth of 0.4%-to-0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4.

9 Oct 2019 Anaemic Growth in Chile and Low Inflation Warrants more Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

Chile's inflation outlook remains benign, allowing policymakers to cut interest rates if the economic recovery falters.

9 November. 2016 Will Wage Growth Keep Up With Rising Inflation? (Publication Centre)

The strength of the economic recovery next year and the MPC's scope to leave interest rates at ultra-low levels will hinge on whether wage growth picks up in response to rising inflation.

9 Feb. 2015 The German economy is improving: Q4 GDP will beat consensus (Publication Centre)

German industrial production data were presented by Bloomberg News as signs that the recovery is "gathering momentum", but it is slightly premature to make that call. Narrow money growth is currently sending a strong signal of higher GDP growth this year in the euro area, but the message from the manufacturing sector is still one of stabilisation rather than acceleration.

9 June. The Surge in April Industrial Production is Just Noise (Publication Centre)

April's 2.0% month-to-month leap in industrial production was the biggest upside surprise on record to the consensus forecast, which predicted no change. The surge, however, just reflects statistical and weather-related distortions. These boosts will unwind in May, ensuring that industry provides little support to Q2 GDP growth. Make no mistake, the recovery has not suddenly gained momentum.

Asia Datanote Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Delayed recovery of private manufacturers suggests upside risks to Q3.

Asia Datanote Exports, Korea, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the headline, the recovery remains on track.

Asia Datanote: Machine Tool Orders, Japan, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still no recovery.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Tankan suggests downside risks to our -6% y/y Q2 GDP forecast. Private manufacturers in China continue to play catch-up. Expect a bumpy recovery for Korean exports in Q3. Korean business sentiment is finally recovering.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Mr. Trump's partial U-turn on September tariffs shows some semblance of an understanding of reality...that's a good thing. China's industrial production crushes June hopes of a swift recovery. Chinese consumers struggle. Chinese FAI: the infrastructure industry growth slowdown is especially worrying. Japan's strong core machine orders rebound in June probably faded in recent weeks. Korea's jobless rate will soon creep back up after remaining steady in July.

Asia Datanote Manufacturing PMIs, China, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery in Q3 GDP, confirmed.

Asia Datanote Jibun Bank PMIs, Japan, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery is on track--just--with the second wave receding.

Asia Datanote Exports, Korea, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Expect a bumpy recovery in Q3

Asia Datanote Jibun Bank PMIs, Japan, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A two-tiered economic recovery is emerging

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs confirm continued recovery in Q3 GDP. "Reopening stimulus" continues to drive China's non-manufacturing PMI. The lack of support for capex held back Japanese production in August. Retail sales in Japan shrug off the second wave and complete their near V-shaped recovery.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Punchy output gains from China's manufacturers will soon give way. A mixed bag for China's non-manufacturing sectors at the start of Q3. Don't be fooled by the June slip in Japan's unemployment rate. Expect only a mild recovery in Japanese industrial production, for now. Korean production ended Q2 on a strong note.

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid progress, though the last miles of this marathon recovery will be the hardest.

LatAm Datanote: BCCh Rate Decision, Chile, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: A surprise hefty rate cut; policymakers respond to the subpar recovery and trade war fears.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: On hold, but ready to cut if the economic recovery falters.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMIs, China, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery in Q3 GDP, confirmed.

Global Datanote: Jibun Bank PMIs, Japan, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery is on track--just--with the second wave receding.

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery continues, but some sectors are struggling,

Global Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: All the hallmarks of a strengthening cyclical recovery.

Global Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Services are now buckling; will it halt the recovery?

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery continues, but it is easing on sequential basis.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: A soft end to the year, but the modest recovery continues.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Mexico, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: On the mend, but a full recovery remains a long way off

LatAm Datanote: Final GDP, Mexico, Q2 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slightly better than expected, but the road to full recovery will be long.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The industrial recovery continues, but it is losing momentum.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, but rising external risks suggest that the recovery will stutter.

LatAm Datanote: Economic Activity Index, Brazil, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery continues; risks are titling to the upside.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A modest improvement; the road to full recovery will be long and painful.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: The modest recovery is on track, but risks remain.

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery continues, but it is easing on sequential basis.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery is stalling.

EZ Datanote Advance PMIs, France, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery is stalling.

EZ Datanote Industrial Production, France, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery continues, but it is now slowing.

EZ Datanote Industrial Production, France, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but the road to a full recovery is long.

EZ Datanote Advance PMIs, France, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Conditions for a slow, but sustained, recovery are in place.

EZ Datanote Advance PMIs, Eurozone, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: No recovery in sight as long as the virus is spreading.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI was poised for major disappointment... the trade war impact is clear. Don't be fooled by the relative stability of China's non-manufacturing PMI. Japan's March unemployment uptick was early; April was payback. Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's industrial production ticks up after extreme weakness; don't hold your breath for the recovery. Japan's consumers in poor shape, but maybe it's not that bad. The upswing in Korean industrial production likely to take a breather this month. The BoK holds firm, despite rising calls for a rate cut.

EZ Datanote Advance Consumer Sentiment, Eurozone, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery is stalling, but retail sales don't care.

EZ Datanote Industrial Production, Germany, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery is underway, but it's a very slow start.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: The road to recovery begins; we hope.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery is slowing, but the devil is in the detail.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: No recovery in sight as long as the virus is spreading.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Conditions for a slow, but sustained, recovery are in place.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: All the hallmarks of a strengthening cyclical recovery.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, February (Publication Centre)

German manufacturing was in clear recovery mode before Covid-19.

EZ Datanote: Car registrations, EU 27, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A very slow recovery is now underway.

EZ Datanote: Car Registrations, EU 27, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: A slow recovery is underway

9 December. 2016 The Oil Hit Spread Widely Across the Economy - Now, it's Over (Publication Centre)

A core element of our relatively upbeat macro view before the implementation of fiscal stimulus under the new administration is that the ending of the drag from falling capex in the oil sector will have quite wide, positive implications for growth. The recovery in direct oil sector spending is clear enough; it will just track the rising rig count, as usual.

9 Sept 2020 Inflation in Chile Drifted Lower in August, Risks are Low, for Now (Publication Centre)

Inflation in most economies in LatAm is well under control, allowing central banks to keep a neutral or dovish bias, and giving them room for further rate cuts if the economic recovery falters in the near term.

3 July 2020 Can Any Valuable Information be Extracted from the PMIs? (Publication Centre)

The release today of the final reading of the composite PMI for June will provoke further debate over its usefulness in charting the economy's recovery from the Covid-19 shock.

3 March 2017 Banxico is Facing a Tough Dilemma, but the Copom is Sitting Pretty (Publication Centre)

Banxico's Quarterly Inflation Report--QIR--for Q4 2016, published this week, confirmed that the monetary authority is concerned about the slowing pace of economic activity and rising inflation pressures. Banxico noted that signs of a recovery have emerged in external demand, but it also pointed out that the Trump administration might impose policies which would hit FDI flows into Mexico.

3 May 2019 Andean Central Bank's Dovish Tone to Continue In Coming Meetings (Publication Centre)

Inflation and growth paths remain diverse across LatAm, but in the Andes, the broad picture is one of modest inflationary pressures and gradual economic recovery.

3 February 2017 Brazil's Q4 Industrial Output was Poor, Q1 Will be Much Better (Publication Centre)

Brazil's Q4 industrial production report, released Wednesday, confirmed that the recovery remained sluggish at the end of last year. December's print alone was relatively strong, though, and the cyclical correction in inventories--on the back of improving demand--lower interest rates, and the better external outlook, all suggest that the industrial economy will do much better this year.

3 December 2018 Brazil's Solid Q3 GDP Data Pave the Way for an Upbeat 2019 (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that Brazil's recovery has continued over the second half of the year, supported by steady household consumption and rebounding capex.

29 July 2020 Global Monitor The Second U.S. Covid Wave has Crested (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Congressional face-off could delay the next relief bill until September • EUROZONE - The Eurozone economics team is on vacation • U.K. - Surging retail sales are a poor guide to overall consumption • ASIA - Korea's grim Q2 likely was the low, but the recovery is fragile • LATAM - The deep recession will suppress inflation in Mexico

29 May 2019 Consumer and Business Confidence Show Diverging Responses to Brexit (Publication Centre)

May's E.C. Economic Sentiment survey was a blow to hopes that the six-month stay of execution on Brexit would facilitate a recovery in confidence.

2nd September 2020 Global Monitor All set for further ECB stimulus? (Publication Centre)

U.S. -The Fed will let the economy runs hot, if it has to Eurozone - Soft August CPI data sets up further ECB easing in September U.K. - The U.K. economics team is on vacation Asia - Manufacturing in China is peaking, services are catching up LatAm - A full recovery in LatAm is not in the cards this year

3 November. 2016 MPC to Catch Out Markets Again with Lingering Dovish Tone (Publication Centre)

Markets are pricing-in just a 10% chance of the MPC cutting interest rates again within the next six months, odds that look too low given the strong likelihood that the economic recovery loses more pace.

30 August. 2016 Reports of the Economy's Resilience are Greatly Exaggerated (Publication Centre)

Over the sleepy August holidays, a view has gained traction in the media that the U.K. economy is showing little damage from the Brexit vote. Optimists argue that the size and composition of the 0.6% quarter-on-quarter rise in Q2 GDP, the 1.4% month-to-month jump in retail sales volumes in July, and the slight dip in the unemployment claimant count demonstrate that the recovery is in good shape.

4 Dec 2019 GDP Growth Will Rise in Brazil Next Year, but External Risk is Looming (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirm that Brazil's recovery has continued over the second half of the year, supported by steady capex growth and rebounding household consumption.

4 December 2017 GDP Growth Will Rise in Brazil Next Year, but Political Risk is Looming (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that Brazil's recovery has continued over the second half of the year, supported by steady household consumption and rebounding capex.

4 December 2018 Manufacturing Still Treading Water, Despite the Slightly Stronger PMI (Publication Centre)

The recovery in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI to 53.1 in November, from 51.1 in October, propelled it well above the consensus, and the equivalent reading for the Eurozone, 51.8, for only the second time in the last 19 months.

31 July 2020 Every Employment Indicator is Continuing to Glow Bright Red (Publication Centre)

We remain concerned that huge job losses are imminent, slowing the economic recovery after a mid-summer spurt.

31 August. 2015 Brazil's Recession, Worse Than Feared And No Respite In Sight (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession has deepened. Overall, the economy has sunk into its worst slump in six years, and the recovery will be painful and slow. This is not surprising, but the sharper than expected 3% contraction over the first half of the year may have thrown a further bucket of cold water on President Rousseff, whose popularity ratings have fallen to a level not seen since 1992, when President Collor de Mello was forced out of office after being impeached for corruption. Real GDP in Brazil fell 1.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, much worse than the downwardly revised 0.7% contraction in Q1.

9 April 2019 Small Business Sentiment Ought to be Rebounding Capex Plans too (Publication Centre)

The recovery in small business sentiment since the fourth quarter rollover has been extremely modest, so far.

30th September 2020 Global Monitor Spot the incentive to fire workers in the U.K. (Publication Centre)

• U.S.- 36 Days to go, who will win, and what will they do • EUROZONE - The PMIs point to a stalling recovery, but other surveys beg to differ • U.K.- The new job-retention scheme won't prevent a sharp rise in unemployment • ASIA - Controversial agricultural reforms in India deserve a shot • LATAM - More rate cuts on the way from Banxico

29 Jan. 2016 Little to Console the Optimists in Fourth Quarter GDP (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in Q4 slightly exceeded our expectation and the third quarter's growth rate, both 0.4%. Nonetheless, there was little to console the optimists in the figures. The recovery remains unbalanced, with industrial production and construction output falling by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, while services output rose 0.7% quarter-on-quarter.

29 April 2019 Mexico's Economy is Stabilizing, Despite Stifling Monetary Policy (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Mexico remains relatively sticky, limiting Banxico's capacity to adopt a more dovish approach, despite the subpar economic recovery.

27 May. Q1 GDP Just the Beginning of a Prolonged Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The second estimate of Q1 GDP confirmed that the recovery has lost momentum and revealed that growth would have ground to a halt without consumers. GDP growth likely will slow further in Q2, as Brexit risk undermines business investment.

27 Nov 2019 The Brazilian Real Weakens Further, Despite Improving Fundamentals (Publication Centre)

The BRL remains under severe stress, despite renewed signals of a sustained economic recovery and strengthening expectations that the end of the monetary easing cycle is near.

27 November 2018 Japan's Flash PMI Puts a Q4 GDP Rebound into Serious Doubt (Publication Centre)

Japan's flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI report for November was abysmal, putting the chances of a recovery this quarter into serious doubt.

27 May. 2016 Mr. Temer Starts to Deliver - Fiscal Measures are Positive, Overall (Publication Centre)

Recent political and economic developments in Brazil make us more confidence in our forecast of a gradual recovery. On Wednesday, interim President Michel Temer scored his first victory in Congress, winning approval for his request to raise this year's budget target to a more realistic level. Under the new target, Brazil's government plans to run a budget gap, before interest, of about 2.7% of GDP this year.

27 Mar. 2015 Credit Growth is Improving, But the Periphery is Being Left Behind (Publication Centre)

Money supply data continue to support the continuation of cyclical recovery in the Eurozone. M3 growth accelerated to 4.0% year-over-year in February from a revised 3.7% in January. Revisions, however, mean that momentum in the beginning of the year was not as solid as we thought.

27 Jan 2020 The PMI Rebound Should Suffice for the MPC to Stand its Ground (Publication Centre)

The recovery in the composite PMI to 52.4 in January, from 49.3 in December, should convince a majority of MPC members to vote on Thursday to maintain Bank Rate at 0.75%.

27 June 2017 The Italian Job on Two Small Venetian Banks is a Good Start (Publication Centre)

The strengthening recovery in the euro area is proving to be a poisoned chalice for some of the region's most vulnerable banks. Earlier this month-- see our Monitor of June 8--Spain's Banco Populare was acquired by Banco Santander, and the bank's equity and junior credit holders were bailed-in as part of the deal.

27 September. 2016 Current Account Improving in Brazil, But Momentum is Fading (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts have recovered dramatically this year, and we expect a further improvement--albeit at a much slower pace--in the fourth quarter. The steep depreciation of the BRL last year, and the improving terms of trade due to the gradual recovery in commodity prices, drove the decline in the current account deficit in the first half.

28 Apr. Don't Pin Your Hopes on a Post-Referendum Rebound (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 reflects more than just Brexit risk. The intensifying fiscal squeeze, the uncompetitiveness of U.K. exports, and the lack of spare labour suggest that the U.K.'s recovery now is stuck in a lower gear.

28 May 2020 Unconventional Activity Indicators Still Recovering, Across the Board (Publication Centre)

Unconventional indicators of economic activity suggest that the recovery from the Covid-19 shock is gathering momentum.

28 Nov 2019 Spare a Thank You for the Strong and Stable French Consumer (Publication Centre)

French consumers remained in great spirits midway through the fourth quarter. The headline INSEE consumer confidence index jumped to a 28-month high in November, from 104 in October, extending its v-shaped recovery from last year's plunge on the back of the yellow vest protests.

28 November. 2016 GDP Won't Sustain its Recent Momentum Next Year (Publication Centre)

The second estimate of Q3 GDP last week confirmed that the Brexit vote didn't immediately drain momentum from the economic recovery. But it is extremely difficult to see how growth will remain robust next year, when high inflation will cripple consumers and the impact of the decline in investment intentions will be felt.

28 July. 2016 Acceleration of Q2 GDP Won't Have Much Bearing on Stimulus Debate (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, the preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP suggests that the economic recovery weathered Brexit risk well. But growth received support from some unsustainable sources, and also probably was boosted by a calendar quirk. Meanwhile, with few firms or consumers expecting a vote for Brexit prior to the referendum, Q2's brisk growth tells us little about how well the economy will cope in the current climate of heightened uncertainty.

28 Jan. 2016 Preliminary GDP Likely to Provide Another Downside Surprise (Publication Centre)

We expect today's preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP growth to surprise the consensus to the downside, underscoring our view that the economic recovery has shifted down to a much slower gear.

28 April 2017 Current Account in Brazil Still Improving, But not for Long (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recovery has been steady in recent months, and Q1 likely will mark the end of the recession. The gradual recovery of the industrial and agricultural sectors has been the highlight, thanks to improving external demand, the lagged effect of the more competitive BRL, and the more stable political situation, which has boosted sentiment.

28 August. 2015 Another Month, Another Bullish Money Supply Report in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's money supply report provided further relief for investors doubtful over the cyclical recovery following the market turmoil. Broad money growth, M3, accelerated to 5.3% year-over-year in July, up from 4.9% in June, and within touching distance of a new post-crisis high. Narrow money continued to surge too, rising 12.1% year-over-year, up from 11.1% in June, sending a bullish message on the Eurozone economy.

4 February 2019 Brazil's Q4 Industrial Weakness was Offset by Robust Consumption (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production and labour reports, released late last week, confirmed that the recovery was struggling at the end of last year.

30 Oct 2019 Copom to Cut Further, Politics Allows some Room for Manoeuvre (Publication Centre)

The news in Brazil on inflation and politics has been relatively positive in recent weeks, allowing policymakers to keep cutting interest rates to boost the stuttering recovery.

7 June. Are Falling Car Sales Signalling a Wider Consumer Malaise? (Publication Centre)

Consumer spending has been the main locomotive of the economic recovery over the last couple of quarters, as investment and net trade have dragged on growth. Signs are emerging, however, that consumption is slowing too.

4 January 2017 Stronger Surveys Should Not Foster Optimism about Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

A cluster of surveys suggest that the manufacturing sector finished 2016 with a flourish, after a dismal performance for most of the year. But momentum will drain away from the sector's recovery in 2017, as higher oil prices make low value-added work unprofitable again and resurgent inflation causes domestic consumer demand to crumble.

7 Oct 2020 More Solid German Manufacturing Data, but Risks Loom in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that the recovery in German manufacturing picked up the pace midway through Q3. Factory orders jumped by 4.5% month-to-month in August, accelerating after a revised 3.3% gain in July.

7 June 2018 Car Sales Aren't Recovering Yet, Recent Data are Misleading (Publication Centre)

At first glance, car sales appear to be staging a strong recovery, mirroring the better news on high street spending in Q2.

7 June 2017 Sentiment Indicators Signal Better Times for the Mexican Economy (Publication Centre)

Mexico's survey data have improved significantly over the last few months, reaching levels last since before Donald Trump won the U.S. election in November. This suggest that the economy is in much better shape than feared earlier this year. Consumer confidence, for instance, has continued its recovery.

6 Oct 2020 Mexico's PMIs are Improving, but the Near-Term Outlook Remains Bleak (Publication Centre)

The September PMI surveys in Mexico continue to bolster our argument for a subpar recovery in the second half of the year.

6 September. 2016 Chile's Economy Still Under Strain, but Recession Will be Avoided (Publication Centre)

Chile's economy remains under pressure, at least temporarily. After signs of recovery in Q1, activity deteriorated in Q2 and at the start of the third quarter. The sluggish global economy--especially China, Chile's main trading partner--is exacerbating the domestic slowdown, hit by low business and consumer confidence.

7 December 2018 German Manufacturing is Recovering, but Watch Out for Base Effects in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The tepid recovery in German manufacturing continued in at the start of Q4. Factory orders edged higher by 0.3% month-to-month in October, boosted by a 2.9% month-to-month increase in export orders, primarily for capital and intermediate goods in other EZ economies.

7 Sept 2020 GDP Growth will Slow Sharply as Temporary Supports are Removed (Publication Centre)

Data released during our summer break have strengthened the case for expecting the economic recovery to decelerate sharply in the autumn, well before GDP has returned to pre-Covid levels.

8 Apr 2020 Global Monitor U.S. labour market data are off the charts (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - March payrolls were poor, they'll be terrifying in April • EUROZONE - Grim EZ PMI data in March • U.K. - The U.K. won't do better than the rest of Europe in Q2 • ASIA - A v-shaped recovery in China is not certain • LATAM - The incoming data will soon confirm a deep recession in the region

8 Oct 2019 Mexico PMIs, Business Capex, and Hiring are Weakening Rapidly (Publication Centre)

September PMI surveys in Mexico continued to bolster our argument for a subpar recovery in the second half of the year.

8 Oct 2020 Don't Give up Hope of a Rebound in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data seemed to pour cold water on the idea of a sustained recovery in German manufacturing. Industrial production, including construction, fell by 0.2% in August driving the year-over-year rate down by 0.4pp, to -10.0%.

9 April 2019 PBoC Resists RMB Weakness, Despite Exports Threat (Publication Centre)

We aren't convinced that China's recovery is in train just yet.

8 May 2019 Chile's Economy Slowed in Q1, but Expect a Modest Q2 Rebound (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in Chile slowed in Q1, despite a relatively strong end to the quarter, and the chances of an accelerating recovery remains disappointingly low, due to both global and domestic headwinds.

8 May 2018 Brazil's Q1 Looks Poor - we Expect a Rebound Soon, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Brazil's March industrial production report, released on Thursday last week, was weaker than we and the markets were expecting, while the recent deterioration in sentiment surveys highlights the downside risks to the rather fragile economic recovery.

8 April 2019 Andean Economies Hoping for a U.S.-China Trade Deal Soon (Publication Centre)

Fears of a Chinese hard landing have roiled financial and commodity markets this past year and have constrained the economic recovery of major raw material exporters in LatAm.

8 June 2020 Diving into China's Uneven Bounce, and India's Evolving Covid Strategy (Publication Centre)

China's post-Covid-19 economic recovery is becoming increasingly undeniable. But the more relevant questions now are the speed of its revival, and whether there are still any low-hanging fruit to pick.

6 May. 2016 Will the Periphery's Resilience to Political Risks Persist? (Publication Centre)

Political risks in the periphery have simmered constantly during this cyclical recovery, but they have increased recently. In Italy, the government is scrambling to find a solution to rid its ailing banking sector of bad loans. But recapitalisation via a bad bank is not possible under new EU rules.

7 May 2019 Plunging Industrial Activity in Brazil Highlight the Political Mess (Publication Centre)

In our recent Monitors, we stressed that some leading indicators in Brazil, particularly business and consumer confidence, are still pointing to a gradual economic recovery.

4 Mar 2020 Brazil's Survey Data Point to a Steady Upturn, but it will Stutter Soon (Publication Centre)

The key story in Brazil this year remains one of gradual recovery, but downside risks have increased sharply, due mainly to challenging external conditions.

5 December 2018 Brazil's Industrial Output Started Q4 Softly, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Brazil's key data flow started Q4 on a soft note, but we still believe that the economic recovery will gather strength over the next three-to-six months.

5 July 2019 Chile's Retail Sector is Stabilizing, but Policy Uncertainty Remains (Publication Centre)

The economic recovery disappointed in Chile during most of the first half of the year, despite relatively healthy fundamentals, including low interest rates, low inflation and stable financial metrics.

4 Nov. 2015 Mexico's Economy Solid in Q3 - Soft Manufacturing No Threat Yet (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy had a decent start to the second half of the year, thanks to resilient domestic demand, amid signs of recovery in industrial activity. GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, a bit faster than in Q2, lifting the year-over-year rate to 2.4% from 2.2% in Q2. This is the first time the statistics office, INEGI, published an advance reading on GDP, reducing the time between the end of the quarter to the report date to 30 days from 52.

4 Sept. 2015 The ECB is Spooked by Low Oil Price and Low Growth in EMs (Publication Centre)

The ECB left its key interest rates unchanged yesterday, and maintained the pace of QE at €60B a month, but increased the issue limit to 33% from 25%. The updated staff projections revealed a downward adjustment of the central bank's inflation and growth forecasts across all horizons up to 2017. These forecasts were accompanied by a very dovish introductory statement, noting disappointment with the pace of the cyclical recovery, and emphasizing renewed downside risks to the economy and the inflation outlook.

6 May. 2016 Chile's Economy Picks Up in Q1, but no Sustained Acceleration (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in Chile picked up in Q1, but the recovery remains disappointingly weak, due to both global and domestic headwinds. The latest Imacec index, a proxy for GDP, rose just 2.1% year-over-year in March, slowing from a 2.8% gain in February. Assuming no revisions next month, economic activity rose 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, better than the 0.9% increase in Q4. These data points to a modest pick-up in GDP growth in Q1, to 1.8% year-over-year, from 1.3% in Q4.

5 Feb 2020 A Poor Finish to 2019 for Brazil's Industry, COPOM to Cut Rates (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production report, released yesterday, confirmed that the recovery was stuttering at the end of last year.

5 June 2017 The Real Story of High Youth Unemployment in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Youth unemployment remains a blemish on the Eurozone economy, despite an increasingly resilient cyclical recovery. The unemployment rate for young workers aged 15-to-24 years stood at 18.4% at the end of April, chiefly due to high joblessness in the periphery.

5 Nov. 2015 More MPC Hawks Likely to Emerge Today, Despite Services Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The improvement in the Markit/CIPS services PMI in October was pretty limp, supporting our view here that the recovery is shifting into a lower gear. What's more, the poor productivity performance implied by the latest PMIs indicates that wage growth will fuel inflation soon. As a result, the Monetary Policy Committee--MPC--won't be able to wait long next year before raising interest rates. Indeed, we expect the minutes of this month's meeting, released today, to show that one more member of the nine-person MPC has joined Ian McCafferty in voting to hike rates.

6 July 2020 Private Firms in China are Finally Waking Up from their Long Coma (Publication Centre)

The private sector in China has finally joined the party, boosting the durability of the economic recovery.

6 July 2020 The EZ PMIs are Still Improving, but that Doesn't Tell us Much (Publication Centre)

Friday's final June PMI data confirmed the survey's recovery through Q2. The composite index edged higher to 48.5, from 31.9 in May, extending its rebound from a low of just 13.6 in April.

6 May 2020 China's Trade Woes Probably Came Back with a Vengeance in April (Publication Centre)

The collapse in global demand last month will have derailed China's trade recovery, causing exports to drop unpleasantly month-on-month after the bounce of around 45% in March; the January/February breakdown is not provided, so we can't be sure of the extent of the March rebound.

5 Apr. Has Corporate Profitability Peaked? (Publication Centre)

Companies' profit margins have fared relatively well during this recovery, and on many measures, they are back to pre-crisis levels. But looking ahead, corporate profitability is set to be squeezed as labour takes a larger share of national income and the Government gets to grips with the budget deficit by increasing corporate taxation.

6 July 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is on the Mend, but Downside Threats Remain (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector is still suffering, but the pain is easing as the economy gradually reopens. That said, full recovery is a long way off, and the pandemic is still far from over, adding downside risks to the recent upbeat picture.

5 September 2017 How Much of a Headwind is a Stronger Euro for EZ Equities? (Publication Centre)

At the start of the year, consensus forecasts expected Eurozone equities to outperform their global peers this year, on the back of a strengthening cyclical recovery and an increase in earnings growth. Both of these conditions have been met, and yesterday's sentiment data suggest that EZ equity investors remain constructive.

6 Apr. 2016 Is Non-Manufacturing Activity Past Its Cyclical Peak in the Eurozone? (Publication Centre)

The final Eurozone PMIs indicate that the cyclical recovery continued in Q1, but downside risks are rising. The composite index rose marginally to 53.0 in March, from 53.1 in February, below the initial estimate 53.7. Over the quarter as a whole, though, the index fell to 53.2 from 54.1 in Q4, indicating that economic momentum moderated in the first quarter.

4 September 2019 Global Monitor The German labour market is in trouble, will Berlin act? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Mr. Trump will blink on tariffs, if China doesn't budge • EUROZONE - Real M1 is sending an upbeat signal for the EZ business cycle • U.K. - First a Brexit extension, then new elections • ASIA - Political and economic challenges make a for dangerous cocktail in Hong Kong • LATAM - Brazil avoids a recession, but the recovery is set to remain slow

BLOOMBERG - Two decades to unwind from '08 crash: Ian Shepherdson (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, founder and chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses low job growth, the continuing recovery from the financial crisis and the state of the U.S. economy. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

THE TELEGRAPH - Eurozone economy 'sizzles' as ECB readies monetary bazooka (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the Eurozone recovery

NEW YORK TIMES - U.S. Economy Grew Faster in First Quarter Than Previously Thought (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. economy growth

CITY AM - Eurozone economy comes off the boil in January despite rebound in end-of-year retail sales (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone economist Claus Vistesen comments on the Eurozone PMIs

CITY A.M. - Cheap energy and low interest rates lift Eurozone consumers (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen comments on Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Business Insider - US consumer confidence drops for 2nd straight month as virus cuts deeper into spending and hiring (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Consumer Confidence

FINANCIAL TIMES - Jobs data give Bank of England leverage to keep rates low (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. employment

Question of the Week, WC 11th November (Media Centre)

Is Japan's pending 15-month anything to write home about?

Question of the Week, WC 28th September 2020 (Media Centre)

Has the Internal Market Bill killed off the chances of a trade deal with the E.U.?

Question of the Week, WC 14th September 2020 (Media Centre)

Is the monetary easing cycle in Brazil over?

Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: Search Results: 674

pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research