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14 Oct 2019 RBI Beware... Inflation in India will Soon Flirt with the 4% Target (Publication Centre)

Today's CPI report from India should raise the pressure on the RBI to abandon its aggressive easing, which has resulted in 135 basis points worth of rate cuts since February.

20 Nov 2019 Indian Inflation Smashes Through the RBI's Target, Setting Up a Pause (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in India jumped to 4.6% in October, from 4.0% in September, marking a 16-month high and blasting through the RBI's target.

8 Aug 2019 The RBI's Unconventional Rate Cut is Likely to be its Last (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI ventured into the unknown yesterday, cutting its benchmark repo rate further, by an unconventional 35 basis points, to 5.40%.

19 June 2020 India's Q2 Started Off on a Terrible Note, More RBI Cuts Coming (Publication Centre)

The first real glimpse of India's economic performance early this quarter is grim, adding weight to our below-consensus GDP forecast.

25 June 2019 Acharya's Resignation Won't Alter Policy, but Highlights the RBI's Flaws (Publication Centre)

The Reserve Bank of India was hit by another shock resignation yesterday, with Deputy Governor Viral Acharya confirming his early departure in late July, before the next meeting in August, and well before his term was scheduled to end at the close of this year.

8 February 2019 Shaktikanta Das Starts with a Bang, Changing the Course of RBI Policy (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India shocked most forecasters yesterday, including us, with a 4-to-2 majority voting in favour of a 25-basis point rate cut.

7 Oct 2019 After the RBI's Fifth Rate Cut, Food Prices will Force a December Pause (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted unanimously on Friday to cut interest rates at a fifth straight meeting, as expected.

7 June 2019 The RBI's Third Rate Cut is Overkill a U-Turn is Likely, Soon (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted yesterday to cut the benchmark repo rate by a further 25 basis points, to 5.75%, a nine-year low.

5 April 2019 The RBI is Playing with Fire Inflation Will Soon Rear its Ugly Head (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India lowered the benchmark repurchase rate by another 25 basis points yesterday, to 6.00%, as widely expected.

23 Nov. 2015 The Challenge of Surging Migration Won't Go Away Soon (Publication Centre)

The flow of Middle-Eastern refugees taking the treacherous journey towards Europe continues unabated. UNHCR estimates of arrivals through the Western Balkan route--mainly originating from Greece and Serbia--suggest the average daily number of refugees has been stable so far between October and November at about 11,000. These data are very unreliable, but they indicate that the onset of winter on the European continent--and the added risk to migrants with no shelter--will not deter people from attempting the trip to Europe.

5 June 2019 India's Q1 GDP was a Big Miss, but a Knee Jerk Cut Would be Foolish (Publication Centre)

GDP growth in India slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, as expected--see here--opening the door for the RBI to cut interest rates further at its policy announcement tomorrow.

Asia H2 2019 Outlook - China's recovery is tentatively pending - Japanese domestic demand will disappoint - Korea is through the worst - The RBI is in for a U-turn (Publication Centre)

China's Recovery Tentatively Pending *Japan is Weaker than it Looks *The Worst is Over in Korea *Expect an RBI U-Turn

15 May 2019 From Zero to King's Landing, how Bad Could Chinese Trade Become (Publication Centre)

Following Chinese retaliation against new U.S. tariffs last week, the U.S. responded last night, as promised, setting in train the process to slap tariffs on the remaining approximately $300B of imports from China.

14 Aug 2019 Japanese Policymakers Shouldn't take Domestic Demand For Granted (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q2 GDP was driven by the twin pillars of private consumption and capex.

27 Mar 2020 India Declares War on Covid-1, an H1 Recession Looks Inevitable (Publication Centre)

India's government imposed a three-week nationwide lockdown on March 25 to combat the increasingly rapid spread of Covid-19.

16 August 2018 China's Phoenix Property Market Heats... Will it Help GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

It has been clear for some months now that China's housing market is refusing to quit, and July's data showed the phoenix rising strongly from the ashes.

17 April 2019 Households are Primed for a Housing Upturn, but not Developers (Publication Centre)

China's property market looks to be turning the corner, going by the stronger-than-expected March report.

24 Sept 2019 India Moves from Piecemeal to Big Bang with Huge Corporate Tax Cuts (Publication Centre)

India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman finally brought out the big guns on September 20, announcing significant cuts to corporate tax rates.

20 Mar 2020 Health Check for the Rest of Asia... Downgrades for Korea and India (Publication Centre)

Brace yourselves; GDP growth forecasts are being slashed left and right, as our colleagues take stock of the economic damage Covid-19 likely will inflict in the U.S. and across Europe, where outbreaks and containment measures have escalated significantly.

18 Oct 2019 Food Inflation Woes Intensify in Asia, with No Sign Yet of Respite (Publication Centre)

Rapidly increasing food inflation is creating all sorts of dilemmas for policymakers in Asia's giants.

18 January 2019 India will Shrug Off the INR Shock, but the Ghost of 2016 is Hovering (Publication Centre)

Data over the past week give a near-complete picture of how India's economy fared in the fourth quarter.

8 July 2019 No Quick Relief from Food Inflation in Sight for India and China (Publication Centre)

One of the main reasons we expect the Reserve Bank of India to roll back at least one of this year's rate cuts before the end of the year is the likely further rise in food inflation.

7 Nov 2019 India Started Q4 Badly, Modi's RCEP Snub is Short-Sighted (Publication Centre)

India's PMIs for October were grim, indicating minimal carry-over of energy from the third quarter rebound.

5 May 2020 EZ Manufacturing Crashed and Burned at the Start of Q2 (Publication Centre)

Services will bear the brunt of the Covid-19 shock in the euro area, but manufacturing is not far behind.

5 Dec 2019 Why We Aren't Panicking About India's Weaker Q3 GDP Print (Publication Centre)

India's headline GDP print for the third quarter was damning, with growth slowing further, to 4.5% year- over-year, from 5.0% in Q2.

30 Mar 2020 Industrial Profits Data Complete China's Grim Start to 2020 (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits in China collapsed by 38.3% year- over-year in the first two months of 2020, making December's 6.3% fall look like a minor blip.

4 June 2020 Don't Set Store by India's Q1 GDP Surprise, no Bullet was Dodged (Publication Centre)

India's consensus-beating GDP report for the first quarter wasn't much to write home about.

26 May 2020 Goodbye China GDP Target, Don't Let the Door Hit you on the Way Out (Publication Centre)

We've suspected that China's GDP targeting system was on its last legs for some time now.

3 Sept 2019 China's Policymakers Hold Their Breath as Recovery Takes its Time (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs show no sign of a recovery yet, but the authorities are sticking to the playbook; they've done the bulk of the stimulus and are waiting for the effects to kick in, but are recognising that they need to make some adjustments.

28 Nov 2019 The Case for Larger PBoC Cuts Grows as Chinese Profits Tank (Publication Centre)

China's abysmal industrial profits data for October underscore why the chances of less- timid monetary easing are rising rapidly.

7 Feb 2020 Coronavirus Could be near-$100B Hit to Chinese GDP in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Nobody knows the damage China's virus- containment efforts will have on GDP, and we probably never will, for sure, given the opacity of the statistics.

6 Feb 2020 Korea's Trade Data for January Show a Modest Virus Hit, For Now (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade data for January provided the first real glimpse of the potential hit to international flows from the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.

6 Dec 2019 Abenomics 2.0 this is not, 2020 GDP Growth will Slow Sharply (Publication Centre)

We have consistently flagged the likelihood that Japan's government would boost spending after the consumption tax hike was implemented.

4 Mar 2020 Revisions Aside, India's Q4 GDP isn't Worrying, nor is the Virus Risk (Publication Centre)

India's GDP report for the fourth quarter surprised to the upside, with the economy growing by 4.7% year-over-year, against the Bloomberg median forecast of 4.5%.

14 Jan 2020 Early Signs of an IP Recovery in India Build the Case for the RBI's Pause (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in India turned around sharply in November, rising by 1.8% year-over-year, following October's 4.0% plunge and beating the consensus forecast for a trivial 0.3% uptick.

7 July 2017 China's Authorities Losing the Regulatory Arbitrage Game (Publication Centre)

All regulators face the challenge that when you regulate one part of the economy, problems appear somewhere else. For China, the game is particularly intense because liquidity created by previous debt binges continues to slosh around the financial system, with no outlet to the real economy.

*November 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Gets A 2020 GDP Growth Downgrade...Back To The Bad Old Days For Japan...Korea Points To Stabilisation In Global Trade...Plus -4% Inflation Sets Up An RBI Pause

*June 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's first recourse: Secure a trade deal...The boj is reticent to join the chorus of doves...The bok won't blink, green shoots are evident...India's Q1 was poor, but rbi cuts are overkill

*December 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Is Stabilising, But Not Yet Recovering...Japan's Fiscal Stimulus Faces Capacity Constraints...No New Year Shock This Time For Korean Workers..India's Q3 Wasn;t A Disaster; The RBI Is Done Easing

23 Nov. 2015 How to Scare Yourself Over the U.S. Inflation Outlook (Publication Centre)

Should you be feeling in the mood to panic over inflation risks--or more positively, benefit from the markets' underpricing of inflation risks--consider the following scenario. First, assume that the uptick in wages reported in October really does mark the start of the long-awaited sustained acceleration promised by a 5% unemployment rate and employers' difficulty in finding people to hire. Second, assume that the rental property market remains extremely tight. Third, assume that the abrupt upturn in medical costs in the October CPI is a harbinger o f things to come. And finally, assume that the Fed hawks are right in their view that the initial increase in interest rates will--to quote the September FOMC minutes--"...spur, rather than restrain economic activity". Under these conditions, what happens to inflation?

*July 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

After June respite, China will hit Q3 headwinds...Japan probably dodged a Q2 GDP contraction...The BOK's surprise cut in July is a one-and-done...The case for additional RBI cuts narrows further

1 December. 2016 ISM Set to Show that Manufacturing is Recovering, Albeit Slowly (Publication Centre)

We have lost count of the number of times the drop in the ISM manufacturing survey, in the wake of the plunge in oil prices, was a harbinger o f recession across the whole economy. It wasn't, because the havoc wreaked in the industrial economy by the collapse in capital spending in the oil sector was contained.

28 June 2017 Chinese Profits Growth to Decelerate, That's a Good Thing (Publication Centre)

Chinese industrial profits growth rose to 16.7% year-on-year in May, from 14.0% in April. But this headline is highly misleading. Profits growth data are about as cyclical as they come so taking one point in the year and looking back 12 months is very arbitrary. Moreover, the data are very volatile over short periods.

27 March 2019 COPOM Minutes, Hard Data and Political Risks Point to Stable Rates (Publication Centre)

The COPOM meeting minutes, released yesterday, brought a balanced message aimed at curbing market pricing of further rate cuts, in our view.

28 June. 2016 The Case for Stronger U.S. Economic Growth is Still Robust (Publication Centre)

Difficult though it is to tear ourselves away from Britain's political and economic train-wreck, morbid fascination is no substitute for economic analysis. The key point here is that our case for stronger growth in the U.S. over the next year is not much changed by events in Europe.

26 Oct. 2015 Mexico's Private Consumption is the Key Driver of the Upswing (Publication Centre)

The tumultuous political and economic crises in Brazil continue to feed off each other, grabbing most of the LatAm headlines. Sentiment will remain depressed, and volatility and uncertainty will persist, hampering any real signs of stabilization in the near-term. The Pacific Alliance countries, by contrast, managed to grow at relatively solid rates during the first half of this year, after absorbing the hit from falling commodity prices.

8 February 2019 Fiscal Deadlines Promise Drama, but Probably not Crises (Publication Centre)

Two fiscal deadlines are on the near-horizon.

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