Pantheon Macroeconomics - Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

Search Results: 175
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

Sorry, but our website is best viewed on a device with a screen width greater than 320px. You can contact us at: info@pantheonmacro.com.

Website Search

Search Results

175 matches for " rate cut":

22 July 2019 Chile's Central Bank on Hold, but the Door is Open for Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank kept rates unchanged last Thursday at 2.50% with a dovish bias, following an unexpected 50bp rate cut at the June meeting.

12 March 2018 Modest Inflation Pressures will Allow the BCB to Deliver a Final Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

Brazilian inflation has been well under control in the past few months, laying the ground for a final rate cut at the monetary policy meeting on March 21.

6 June 2019 The PMIs Still Aren't Weak Enough to Justify Rate Cut Speculation (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, markets' newfound view that the MPC's next move is more likely to be a rate cut than a hike was supported by May's Markit/CIPS PMIs.

5 September. 2016 Is a Further Rate Cut no Longer a Done Deal? (Publication Centre)

The run of consensus-beating activity measures and the pickup in leading indicators of inflation have led markets to doubt that the MPC really will follow up August's package of stimulus measures with another Bank Rate cut this year.

10 July 2019 Mexican Inflation Falls Back into the Target Range. Rate Cuts in Sight (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures are gradually easing in Mexico, opening the door for rate cuts as early as next month. The June CPI report, released yesterday, showed that prices rose 0.1% month-to-month unadjusted in June, in line with market expectations.

2 Dec. 2015 Is An Interest Rate Cut Just as Likely as a Hike? (Publication Centre)

Financial markets are pricing in a 20% chance that the Monetary Policy Committee will cut official interest rates during the next six months, broadly the same odds they ascribe to a rate increase. We think the probability of further easing is much slimmer than the market believes.

19 Aug 2019 The Intensification of the Trade War Forces Rate Cuts in LatAm (Publication Centre)

While we were away, EM growth prospects and risk appetite deteriorated significantly, due mainly to rising geopolitical risks, weaker economic prospects for DM, and, in particular, the most recent chapter of the global trade war.

13 May 2019 Poor Data in Mexico are Gradually Setting the Stage for Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

External and domestic shocks in Mexico over the last two years, including the "gasolinazo", NAFTA renegotiation and the presidential election, have put the country's financial metrics under severe stress and pushed inflation to cyclical highs.

11 February 2019 Banxico Dials Down its Hawkish Tone, but no Rate Cuts Until late Q3 (Publication Centre)

Banxico's monetary policy meeting on Thursday was the first to be attended by the two new deputy governors, Jonathan Heath and Gerardo Esquivel, economists appointed by AMLO.

12 May 2017 Falling Inflation in Brazil Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead (Publication Centre)

Brazil's April CPI data this week showed that inflation pressures remain weak, supporting the BCB's focus on the downside risks to economic activity. Wednesday's report revealed that the benchmark IPCA inflation index rose 0.1% unadjusted month-to-month in April, marginally below market expectations.

2 January 2018 Higher Inflation Targets Open the Door for Rate Cuts in Argentina (Publication Centre)

A sharp ARS sell-off was the key highlight while we were away over the holidays.

21 June 2019 Will Brazilian Policymakers Open the Door for Rate Cuts Soon (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board, COPOM, left the Selic rate at 6.50% on Wednesday, as widely expected.

6 June 2019 Will Mr. Draghi Push Back Against Expectations for a Q4 Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The key aspects of the ECB's policy stance will remain unchanged at today's meeting.

7 June 2019 Did Mr. Draghi Inadvertently Snub Expectations for a Q4 Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

It says a lot about investor expectations that markets' reaction to yesterday's policy announcement by the ECB was marked by slight "disappointment," with EURUSD rallying and EZ bond yields rising.

8 Aug 2019 The RBI's Unconventional Rate Cut is Likely to be its Last (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI ventured into the unknown yesterday, cutting its benchmark repo rate further, by an unconventional 35 basis points, to 5.40%.

29 Apr. 2016 Brazil's Central Bank Lays The Groundwork for a Rate Cut in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's macroeconomic scenario is becoming easier to navigate for the central bank. Both actual inflation and expectations are slowing rapidly, as shown in our first chart. And since the March BCB monetary policy meeting, the BRL has appreciated about 10% against the USD, while commodity prices and EM sentiment have also improved markedly.

28 October. 2016 Markets Are Complacent About the Chances of Another Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP, showing quarter-on-quarter growth slowing only to 0.5% from 0.7% in Q2, has kiboshed the chance that the MPC cuts Bank Rate next Thursday.

23 July 2019 The ECB Will Prepare Markets for a Deposit Rate Cut This Week (Publication Centre)

We're breaking protocol this week by delivering our preview for Thursday's ECB meeting in today's Monitor.

25 February 2019 Is Banxico Ready to Consider Rate Cuts in the Near Term? (Publication Centre)

The minutes of the Banxico's monetary policy meeting on February 7, when the board unanimously voted to keep the reference rate on hold at 8.25%, were consistent with the post-meeting statement.

20 Aug 2019 Weak Growth and Low Inflation in Mexico More Rate Cuts Ahead (Publication Centre)

While we were on holiday, the data confirmed that inflation in Mexico is rapidly unwinding the increases posted earlier in the year; that the economy was under severe strain in late Q2 and early Q3; and that the near-term outlook has grown increasingly challenging.

27 February 2018 Brazil's Low Inflation in Mid-February Ushers in Bets for a Final Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

Brazil's inflation rate remained well under control over the first half of February. We see no threats in the near term, indicating that more stimulus will be forthcoming from the BCB.

27 March 2019 COPOM Minutes, Hard Data and Political Risks Point to Stable Rates (Publication Centre)

The COPOM meeting minutes, released yesterday, brought a balanced message aimed at curbing market pricing of further rate cuts, in our view.

25 June 2019 A New Fall in Mexican Services is Setting the Stage for a Poor Q2 (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday in Mexico strengthened the case for interest rate cuts this year.

24 June 2019 External Threats are Easing, Can Banxico Adopt a Dovish Tone? (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days confirm the story of a struggling economy and falling inflation pressures in Mexico, strengthening our forecast of interest rate cuts over the second half of the year.

24 July 2019 Copom to Cut Rates, Thanks to Low Inflation and Progress on Reforms (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday in Brazil helped to lay the ground for interest rate cuts over the coming months.

16 May 2017 Upbeat March's Data in Brazil Confirms the Recession is Over (Publication Centre)

Economic data released yesterday underscored that Brazil emerged from recession in the first quarter, but further rate cuts are needed. Indeed, the monthly economic activity index--the IBC-Br--fell 0.4% monthto- month in March, though this followed a strong 1.4% gain in February.

8 February 2019 Shaktikanta Das Starts with a Bang, Changing the Course of RBI Policy (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India shocked most forecasters yesterday, including us, with a 4-to-2 majority voting in favour of a 25-basis point rate cut.

11 July 2019 Only a Run of Very Strong Numbers Now Could Stop the Fed this Month (Publication Centre)

At least some investors clearly were expecting Fed Chair Powell yesterday to offer a degree of resistance to the idea that a rate cut at the end o f this month is a done deal.

11 April 2018 Brazil's Inflation Fell Rapidly in March, Chile's Economy Rebounding (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday reinforced our forecast of a further rate cut in Brazil next month.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's firms aren't passing on tax hikes after all. China takes full advantage of previous oil price declines. Japan's core machine orders better than expected, but that won't help Q2. Japan is heading for a spell of sustained PPI deflation in H2. Better May jobs report will help to keep any BoK rate cuts at bay.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

PBoC holding still in the wake of Fed rate cut. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was due a bounce. Inflation in Korea will soon take another nosedive, due largely to unfavourable non-core base effects. Korea's export slump turned less bad in July. Korea's two main manufacturing surveys aren't talking to each other.

17 March 2017 Colombia's Economy is Slowing Rapidly, BanRep to Cut Further (Publication Centre)

The Fed's insistence this week that U.S. rates will rise only twice more this year helped to ease pressures on LatAm markets this week, particularly FX. The way is now clear for some LatAm central banks to cut interest rates rapidly over the coming months, even before U.S. fiscal and trade policy becomes clear. We expect the next Fed rate hike to come in June, as the labor market continues to tighten. If we're right, the free-risk window for LatAm rate cuts is relatively short.

6 December 2017 Low Rates Will Continue to Spur the Industrial Recovery in Brazil (Publication Centre)

Brazilian data strengthened early in Q4, supporting the case for the COPOM to slow the pace of rate cuts. We expect the SELIC policy rate to be lowered by 50bp today, to 7.0%.

19 December 2018 New Thinking on PBoC Rates Balance Tipping Toward a Cut (Publication Centre)

A PBoC rate cut is looking increasingly likely. Policy is already on the loosest setting possible without cutting rates, but the Bank has little to show for its marginal approach to easing, with M1 growth still languishing.

1 July 2019 Brazil's Inflation Report Opened the Door for Rate Cuts as Early as July (Publication Centre)

Recent economic weakness in Brazil, particularly in domestic demand, and the ongoing deterioration of confidence indicators, have strengthened the case for interest rate cuts.

19 July. 2016 Domestic Demand is Slowing in Colombia - Rate Cuts Soon? (Publication Centre)

Markets are reacting to Colombia's disappointing activity figures, released Friday, by pulling forward expectations for the country's first rate cut to December. The data certainly looked weak--especially upon close examination--and we expect growth to slow further. But we think that inflation is still too high to expect rate cuts this year.

12 September 2016 Will the MPC Stand By its Rate Cut Guidance this Week? (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee likely will not follow up August's stimulus measures with another rate cut at its meeting on Thursday. The partial revival in surveys of activity and confidence have weakened the case for immediate action.

20 December 2016 BanRep Brings Forward the Start of Rate Cuts on Growth Concerns (Publication Centre)

BanRep surprised the markets on Friday with a 25bp interest rate cut, bringing rates to 7.50%. We expected the Colombian central bank to start easing in January, due to the uncertainties surrounding the tax reform package and the ongoing minimum wage negotiations.

2 October 2017 Banxico Maintains a Neutral Tone, But Challenges are Approaching (Publication Centre)

Banxico left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 7.0% at last Thursday's policy meeting.

19 August. 2016 Retail Data Point to Soft Second Quarter GDP Growth in Colombia (Publication Centre)

Data this week confirmed that private spending in Colombia stumbled in June. Retail sales fell 0.7% year-over-year, from an already poor -0.4% in May. The underlying trend is negative, following two consecutive declines, for the first time since late 2009. Domestic demand remains subdued as consumers are scaling back spending due to weaker real incomes, lower confidence and tighter credit and labor market conditions.

2 January 2019 China to Turn up the Stimulus in 2019, but Constraints Remain (Publication Centre)

At the end of last year, China's Central Economic Work Conference set out the lay of the land for 2019. Cutting through the rhetoric, we think the readout implies more expansionary fiscal policy, and a looser stance on monetary policy.

19 Aug 2019 The BoJ will Continue to Cross its Fingers on Yield Curve Inversion (Publication Centre)

An inverted curve is a widely recognised signal that a recession is around the corner, though it's worth remembering that the lags tend to be long.

18 February 2019 Chinese New Year Effects Evident in January's Money and Price Data (Publication Centre)

Take China's data dump last Friday with a pinch of salt, as Chinese New Year--CNY-- effects look to have distorted January's money and price data.

19 Aug 2019 Resistance is Futile in the EZ Fixed Income Bull Market... For Now (Publication Centre)

The ECB's communication to markets has been clear this year. In Q1, the central bank changed its stance on the economy towards an emphasis on "downside risks to the outlook".

20 March 2018 Brazil and Chile are Strengthening Expect Further Good News this Year (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recovery is consolidating, with recent data flow confirming that the economy had an encouraging start to the year.

21 February 2018 Argentina's Inflation Remains Too High,but it Will Start to Fall in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Argentina's latest hard data suggest that activity is softening, but we don't see the start of a renewed downtrend.

21 Jan. 2016 The ECB is Under Pressure to Act, but Likely Will Hold Fire Today (Publication Centre)

Financial markets have put maximum pressure on the ECB going into today's meeting, but we doubt it will be enough to spur the governing council into action so soon after announcing additional stimulus in December. We think the central bank will keep its refi and deposit rate unchanged at 0.05% and -0.3% respectively, and maintain the pace of asset purchases at €60B a month.

21 Aug 2019 Existing Home Sales are Reviving Lower Rates Signal a Better H2 (Publication Centre)

We're expecting to learn today that existing home sales rose quite sharply in July, perhaps reaching the highest level since early 2018.

21 Aug 2019 China's Authorities Signal Further Easing, but Space is Limited (Publication Centre)

The PBoC's reformed one-year Loan Prime Rate was published yesterday at 4.25%, compared with 4.31% on the previous LPR, and below the benchmark lending rate, 4.35%.

18 April 2018 Colombia's Softer Activity Data is Temporary, Expect an Acceleration (Publication Centre)

The February activity report in Colombia showed a modest pick-up in manufacturing activity and strength in the retail sales numbers.

21 Aug 2019 Resilient Domestic Demand in the Andes, Despite Global Tensions (Publication Centre)

The Andean economies haven't been immune to the turmoil roiling the global economy in the past few weeks.

2 October 2018 Good News for Mexico's Prospects, the USMCA will Boost Sentiment (Publication Centre)

The U.S. reached a trade agreement with Canada on Sunday, adding its northern neighbour to the pact sealed a month ago with Mexico.

11 July 2017 Political Risk Return this Week in Brazil, but a Catastrophe is Unlikely (Publication Centre)

Political risks in Brazil recently have simmered alongside the modest cyclical recovery, but they are now increasing. President Michel Temer's future remains hard to predict as circumstances change by the day.

13 December 2017 Mexico's Manufacturing Starts Q4 Badly, but it Will Gradually Improve (Publication Centre)

Mexican industrial activity started the fourth quarter badly. Industrial production fell 0.1% month- to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate slightly up to -1.1% from -1.2% in September and -0.7% in Q3.

11 May 2018 Mexico's Economy on the Mend, but Politics is Now the Biggest Risk (Publication Centre)

This week's data confirmed Mexico's strong economic performance over the first few months of this year.

14 August 2017 Peru's Central Bank Holds Rates but Points to Further Stimulus (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 3.75% last week, but signalled that further easing is on the way. According to the press release accompanying the decision, policymakers noted that inflation expectations are within their target range and still falling.

11 October 2017 Peru's Central Bank Likely Will Ease Tomorrow, but Room has Shrank (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank likely will cut its main interest rate by 25bp to 3.25% on Thursday. Inflation dipped in September and likely will increase only marginally in October, while economic growth was relatively sluggish at the start of Q3.

11 October. 2016 Conditions Are Set for the BCB to Start Easing Next Week (Publication Centre)

The latest CPI data in Brazil confirm that inflationary pressures eased considerably last month. Inflation fell to 8.5% year-over-year in September, from 9.0% in August, as a result of both lower market- set and regulated inflation.

12 March 2019 What we Learned from AMLO's First 100 Days Can Uncertainty Ease (Publication Centre)

Yesterday marked President AMLO's first 100 days in office, with skyrocketing approval ratings and improving consumer confidence.

12 July 2017 Andean Policymakers Will Meet Market Expectations Tomorrow (Publication Centre)

Markets are looking for the BCCh to remain on hold and the BCRP to ease on Thursday; we think they will be right. In Chile, the BCCh will hold rates because inflation pressures are absent and economic activity is stabilizing following temporary hits in Q1 and early Q2.

14 July 2017 Brazilian Consumption Slowed in Q2, but it will Rebound in H2 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic situation has improved this year, and we still expect the recovery to continue over the second half, despite recent political volatility and soft Q2 data.

14 June 2019 Brazil's Private Spending Still Hurt by High Political Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

In a busy week in Brazil, ongoing signals of feeble economic activity have strengthened our forecast for GDP growth of just 1.0% this year, below the 1.3% consensus forecast.

11 March 2019 Inflation Data in the Andes Validate Forecasts for Stable Interest Rates (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Andes remains in check and the near term will be benign, suggesting that central banks will remain on hold over the coming months.

17 November 2017 Commodities Tailwind Helping Andean Economies to Recover (Publication Centre)

Colombian activity data released this week were relatively strong, but mostly driven by the primary sectors; consumption remains sluggish compared to previous standards.

12 July 2019 Brazilian Fundamentals to Improve Further as Key Reform is in Sight (Publication Centre)

Brazil's political situation is steadily improving, with the latest events proving a step in the right direction.

16 March 2018 Colombia's Consumption and Investment are Strengthening (Publication Centre)

Colombia's economy defied rising political uncertainty at the start of the year. Retail sales growth jumped to plus 6.2% year-over-year in January, up from -3.8% in December and -1.8% in Q4.

15 September 2017 Brazil Started Q3 Strongly, and the Recovery Should Continue in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's July economic activity index, released yesterday, showed that the economy started the second half of the year strongly. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, rose 0.4% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.4%, from -0.4% in June.

15 July 2019 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Subdued Banxico to Cut Soon (Publication Centre)

Downbeat sectoral data and weakening consumer spending numbers indicate that the Mexican economy remains in bad shape.

21 June 2019 Financial Markets in the Eurozone are now in Bizarro-World (Publication Centre)

Swoons in EZ investor sentiment are not always reliable leading indicators for the economic surveys, but it is fair to say that risks for today's advance PMIs are tilted to the downside, following the dreadful Sentix and ZEW headlines earlier this month.

10 October. 2016 The Sterling Crisis has Tied Policymakers' Hands (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s dependence on large inflows of external finance was laid alarmingly b are last week, when "hard" Brexit talk by politicians caused overseas investors to give sterling assets a wide berth. Investors now are demanding extra compensation for holding U.K. assets, because the medium-term outlook is so uncertain.

23 Aug 2019 Further Evidence of Resilience in the Eurozone PMI Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's August PMI data in the euro area ran counter to the otherwise gloomy signals from the ZEW and Sentix investor sentiment indices.

4 May. The MPC Won't Cut Rates to Alleviate the Manufacturing Slump (Publication Centre)

The nosedive in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI in April provides an early sign that GDP growth is likely to slow even further in the second quarter. The MPC, however, looks set to keep its powder dry. We continue to think that the next move in interest rates will be up, towards the end of this year.

5 April 2019 The RBI is Playing with Fire Inflation Will Soon Rear its Ugly Head (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India lowered the benchmark repurchase rate by another 25 basis points yesterday, to 6.00%, as widely expected.

4 July 2019 Investors are Seeing Carney's Comments Through a Dovish Prism (Publication Centre)

Investors have concluded from June's Markit/CIPS PMIs and Governor Carney's speech on Tuesday that the chance of the MPC cutting Bank Rate before the end of this year now is about 50%, rising to 55% by the time of Mr. Carney's final meeting at the end of January.

4 January 2019 Poor End to 2018 Underscores the Hastiness of the Bank of Korea Hike (Publication Centre)

Korean hard data for December, so far, leave the door ajar for the possibility that the Bank of Korea will roll back its November hike sooner than we expect.

30 October 2017 Brazil's Central Bank is Easy to Read, BanRep is Unpredictable (Publication Centre)

While we were out, Brazil's central bank delivered a widely-expected 75bp easing, cutting the benchmark rate to 7.5% in an unanimous vote.

31 March 2017 The Economic Outlook is Improving in Brazil, and even in Mexico (Publication Centre)

Downside risks to our growth forecast for Brazil and Mexico for this year have diminished this week. In Brazil, concerns over the potential impact of the meat scandal on the economy have diminished. Some key global customers, including Hong Kong, have in recent days eased restrictions on imports from Brazil, and other counties have ended their bans.

5 July. 2016 Argentina's Economy is Still Shrinking, But Growth will Come (Publication Centre)

Argentina's overdue policy tightening, aimed at dealing with the country's severe inflation and fiscal problems, is underway. Printing of ARS at the central bank, the BCRA, to finance the budget, deficit has slowed and will be curbed further. Welfare spending, which accounts for nearly half of government spending, has been put on the chopping block.

5 June 2019 India's Q1 GDP was a Big Miss, but a Knee Jerk Cut Would be Foolish (Publication Centre)

GDP growth in India slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, as expected--see here--opening the door for the RBI to cut interest rates further at its policy announcement tomorrow.

8 March 2017 Brazil's Economy Struggled Late Last Year, Will it Grow in Q1? (Publication Centre)

Markets have been positively surprised by Brazil's rapid disinflation, the efforts at fiscal reform, and the prospect of growth in the economy this year. The Ibovespa index is now above its pre-crisis high and the real has approached the key level of three per USD in recent months. But the latest GDP report, released yesterday, showed that the economy struggled in Q4. Real GDP fell 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, worse than the revised 0.7% drop in Q3.

9 January 2018 Colombian Inflation Ended 2017 Above Target 2018 Will be Better (Publication Centre)

Colombian inflation ended 2017 slightly above the central bank's 2-to-4% target range, after a year in which policymakers cut interest rates to boost economic growth.

9 July 2019 It Won't Be Just "One and Done" for the MPC, in the Event of No-Deal (Publication Centre)

The sharp fall in markets' expectations for Bank Rate over the last month has partly reflected the perceived increase in the chance of a no-deal Brexit. Betting markets are pricing-in around a 30% chance of a no-deal departure before the end of this year, up from 10% shortly after the first Brexit deadline was missed.

7 November 2017 Central Bank in Argentina and Peru to Leave Rates on Hold this Week (Publication Centre)

Argentina's central bank likely will leave its main interest rate at 27.75% tomorrow at its biweekly monetary policy meeting.

7 June 2017 Sentiment Indicators Signal Better Times for the Mexican Economy (Publication Centre)

Mexico's survey data have improved significantly over the last few months, reaching levels last since before Donald Trump won the U.S. election in November. This suggest that the economy is in much better shape than feared earlier this year. Consumer confidence, for instance, has continued its recovery.

5 May 2017 Brazil's Industrial Output Dropped in March, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's Brazilian industrial production data were worse than we expected but the details were less alarming than the headline. Output slipped 1.8% month-to-month in March, the biggest fall since August 2015, setting a low starting point for Q2.

5 September 2017 BanRep's Hawks want Proof the Coming In ation Jump is Noise (Publication Centre)

Colombia's Central Bank is about to face a short-term dilemma. The recent fall in inflation will be interrupted while economic growth, particularly private spending, will struggle to build momentum over the second half.

30 March 2017 Can Unemployment Fall to 4% or Less? What Would the Fed do? (Publication Centre)

The unemployment rate hit its post-1970 low in April 2000, at the peak of the first internet boom, when it nudged down to just 3.8%. The low in the next cycle, first reached in October 2006, was rather higher, at 4.4%.

30 August 2017 Argentina's Recovery is Gaining Traction but Inflation is Still a Risk (Publication Centre)

Recently data from Argentina continue to signal a firming cyclical recovery. According to INDEC's EMAE economic activity index, a monthly proxy for GDP, the economy grew 4.0% year-over-year in June, up from an already-solid 3.4% in May.

10 May 2019 The BCB, with no Near Term Room for Manoeuvre, Sees Slow GDP (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economy remains mired in a renewed slowdown, and low--albeit temporarily rising-- inflation, which is allowing the BCB to keep interest rates on hold, at historic lows.

24 August. 2016 The Impetus to Spending From Falling Mortgage Rates Will Wane (Publication Centre)

The proportion of households' annual incomes absorbed by servicing debt has declined steadily this decade, providing a powerful boost to spending. Indeed, the proportion of annual incomes accounted for by interest payments--mainly on mortgages--edged down a record low of 4.6% in Q1, less than half the share in 2008.

24 July 2019 If a Downturn Materialises, Households Will Feel its Full Force (Publication Centre)

Our base case remains that the slowdown in quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to about zero in Q2 is just a blip, and that the economy will regain momentum in Q3 and sustain it well into 2020.

22 March 2019 A Slightly Dovish but Prudent BCB as the New Boss Takes Over (Publication Centre)

At Wednesday's BCB monetary policy meeting, led for the first time by the new president, Roberto Campos Neto, the COPOM voted unanimously to maintain the Selic rate at 6.50%, the lowest on record.

22 June. 2016 Promising Inflation Picture in Brazil, Better News is Coming (Publication Centre)

Brazil's mid-June inflation reading surprised to the downside, falling to 9.0% from 9.6% in May. The reading essentially confirmed that May's rebound was a pause in the downward trend rather than a resurgence of inflationary pressures. A 1.3% increase in housing prices, including services, was the main driver of mid-June's modest unadjusted 0.4% month-to-month rise in the IPCA-15.

22 August 2017 Economic Activity is Turning Up in LatAm, but no Boom Coming (Publication Centre)

LatAm's economies are gradually rebounding, boosted by easier monetary policy in most countries, falling inflation, and a relatively calm external backdrop.

22 July. 2016 Copom Holds Rates, Looking for Inflation Expectation to Slow More (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank kept the SELIC rate on hold on Wednesday at 14.25% for the eight consecutive meeting. The decision, which was widely expected, was unanimous, but the post-meeting statement was more detailed and informative than the central bank's June communiqué. We think the shift was intentional; the central bank's new board, headed by Mr. Ilan Goldfajn, is eager to strengthen the institution's credibility and transparency.

24 May 2019 Mexican Retail Sector is Stabilizing Despite Tight Financial Conditions (Publication Centre)

Mexico's retail sector is finally improving, following a grim second half last year.

25 July 2019 Grim Manufacturing Data Confirm Investors' Priors in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Broadly speaking, yesterday's headline EZ survey data recounted the same story they've told all year; namely that manufacturing is suffering amid resilience in services.

28 March 2017 Andes' Countries Hit by Temporary Shocks, Monetary Policy to Help (Publication Centre)

Recent data have confirmed that Colombian economic activity is still fragile, and that downside risks increased in Q1 as oil prices hav e slipped. The ISE economic activity index rose just 1.0% year-over-year in January, down from a 1.6% average gain in Q4.

28 November 2017 Political Uncertainty to Continue in Mexico Despite a Brief Pause (Publication Centre)

Mexico's political panorama seems to be becoming clearer, at least temporarily. This should dispel some of the uncertainty that has been hanging over the economy in recent months.

28 September. 2016 The BCB's Report Takes a Big Step Towards Easier Money (Publication Centre)

The publication yesterday of the BCB's second quarterly inflation report under the new president, Ilan Golfajn, revealed that inflation is expected to hit the official target next year, for the first time since 2009. The inflation forecast for 2017 was lowered from 4.7% to 4.4%, just below the central bank's 4.5% target.

28 June 2019 Banxico Dials Down its Hawkish Rhetoric, it Will Have to Ease Soon (Publication Centre)

Mexican policymakers voted to leave the main rate on hold at 8.25% yesterday, as inflation remains high--though falling--and the economy is stuttering.

26 June 2019 COPOM is Ready to Cut Rates, but Only if Politicians Don't Mess Up (Publication Centre)

Politics in Brazil has been busy in recent days, with local media reporting several items of interest.

25 June 2019 Markets Relatively High Inflation Expectations Aren't Warranted (Publication Centre)

Financial markets' inflation expectations have risen sharply since the spring. Our first chart shows that the two-year forward rate derived from RPI inflation swaps has picked up to 3.8%, from 3.5% at the end of April.

26 July 2019 Mr. Draghi Readies his Monetary Policy Bazooka for one Last Time (Publication Centre)

Markets were all over the place yesterday in response to the messages from the ECB.

22 Aug 2019 The Fed's July Differences of Opinion Won't Prevent a September Easing (Publication Centre)

It would be easy to characterize the Fed as quite split at the July meeting.

03 October. 2016 The Economy's Near-Term Resilience Has Brittle Foundations (Publication Centre)

Last week's official data unequivocally indicated that the Brexit vote has not had a detrimental impact on the economy yet.

1 August. 2016 Negative Interest Rates Won't Be Part of the MPC's Policy Response (Publication Centre)

The collapse in business activity and consumer confidence since the referendum has sealed the deal on policy easing from the MPC on Thursday. The Committee has cut Bank Rate by 50 basis points when the composite PMI has been near July's level in the past, as our first chart shows.

04 Mar. 2016 Will the MPC Cut Rates to Counteract the Slowdown? (Publication Centre)

The chances of a cut in official interest rates were boosted yesterday by the sharp fall in the business activity index of the Markit/CIPS report on services in February, to its weakest level since April 2013. Its decline, to just 52.8 from 55.6 in January, mirrored falls in the manufacturing and construction PMIs earlier in the week and pushed the weighted average of the three survey's main balances down to a level consistent with quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of just 0.2% in Q1.

10 March 2017 Evidence of a Brazilian Business Cycle Recovery this Year is Building (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector had a relatively good start to the year. Data on Wednesday showed that production fell 0.1% month-to-month in January, less than markets expected, and the year-over-year rate rose to 1.4%, after a 0.1% drop in December.

1 June 2017 Money Data Suggest Q1's Slowdown Won't be Short-lived (Publication Centre)

April's money and credit figures suggest that GDP growth has remained sluggish in Q2. Households' broad money holdings increased by just 0.3% month-to-month in April.

05 Feb. 2016 Bonds Signal an Imminent EZ Recession, but Don't Take the Bait (Publication Centre)

Strong real M1 growth suggests the cyclical recovery is in good shape. But recent economic data indicate GDP growth slowed in Q4, and survey evidence deteriorated in January. This slightly downbeat message, however, is a far cry from the horror story told by financial markets. The recent collapse in stock-to-bond returns extends the decline which began in Q2 last year, signalling the Eurozone is on the brink of recession.

10 January 2018 Mexican Inflation at a 16-Year High. Non-core Prices to Blame (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's CPI report in Mexico showed that inflation remains high, but we are confident that it will start to fall consistently during Q1, thanks chiefly to a favourable base effect.

10 June 2019 Rising Threats of Protectionism is Making Central Banks Very Uneasy (Publication Centre)

LatAm's growth outlook is deteriorating, despite decent domestic fundamentals and political transitions toward more market-oriented governments in some of the region's main economies.

10 July 2019 Time for a Serious Debate about More QE in the Eurozone? (Publication Centre)

Our base case remains a 10bp cut in the deposit rate, to -0.5%, in September.

19 September. 2016 Soft Colombian Activity Data Pave the Way for Rate Cuts in Early 2017 (Publication Centre)

Recent data have added to the evidence that the Colombian economy stumbled in July. Retail sales plunged 3.3% year-over-year, from an already poor and downwardly revised 0.9% decline in June. The underlying trend is negative, following two consecutive declines, and July's data were the weakest since September 2009.

20 December 2018 A Rate Cut Would Enhance Efficacy of the PBoC's new Lending Facility (Publication Centre)

The PBoC late on Wednesday announced measures to provide medium-term funding for smaller businesses.

20 September. 2016 LatAm's Disinflation is Gathering Speed - Rate Cuts Soon? (Publication Centre)

August inflation surprised to the downside across most of LatAm, as food price surges proved transitory, and the lagged effect of the FX depreciations last year faded. Brazil appeared to be the exception last month, but the underlying trend in inflation is downwards.

19 October. 2016 Consumers Still Under Strain in Brazil, but Rate Cuts will Help (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's retail sales data in Brazil surprised to the downside. Consumers are still being squeezed by high interest rates and a deteriorating labour market. Retail sales declined 0.6% month-to-month in August, leaving the year-over-year rate little changed at -5.5%.

21 November. 2016 Soft Chilean Data Likely Leading to Rate Cuts Next Year (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank left rates unchanged at 3.5% last Thursday, as expected, and maintained its neutral tone. Inflation pressures are easing, economic activity remains sluggish and global risks have increased.

20 June. 2016 Brazil's Macro Conditions are Improving - Rate Cuts During H2? (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession carried over into the beginning of Q2, but with diminishing intensity. The IBC-BR economic activity index, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 5.0% year-over-year in April, up from a revised 6.4% contraction in March. The index's underlying trend has improved in recent months, suggesting that the economy is turning around, slowly.

11 July 2019 GDP Growth Still isn't Slow Enough to Warrant a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The economy looks to be in better shape following May's GDP report than widely feared.

06 October. 2016 Steady Growth in the Services Sector Undermines Rate Cut Case (Publication Centre)

September's Markit/CIPS services survey added to the evidence indicating that GDP growth softened, rather than fell off a cliff, in the third quarter. The activity index edged down only to 52.6, from 52.9 in August.

23 Aug 2019 Inflation Stuns to the Downside in Brazil and Mexico Rate Cuts Loom (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in Brazil and Mexico are well under control, with the August mid-month readings falling more than expected, strengthening the case for the BCB and Banxico to cut interest rates in the near term.

11 Mar. 2016 Inflation in Brazil Starts to Slow - Better Odds for Rate Cuts in H2 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's headline CPI has been well above the upper limit of the BCB's target zone since January 2015. We expect this situation will continue for some time, due to the lagged effect of last year's sharp increases in regulated prices, El Niño, the BRL's sell-off in 2015, and, especially, widespread price indexation.

14 Mar. Will the MPC Mull an Interest Rate Cut this Week? (Publication Centre)

This week's key market event likely will be the Monetary Policy Committee's meeting on Thursday, rather than the Budget on Wednesday, which probably will see the Chancellor stick to his previous tough fiscal plans.

15 Apr. Nothing in MPC Minutes to Support Rate Cut Speculation (Publication Centre)

The minutes of yesterday's MPC meeting indicate that it is not going to be panicked into cutting interest rates in the run-up to the E.U. referendum in June. The Committee voted unanimously again to keep Bank Rate at 0.5%, and dovish comments were conspicuously absent.

12 May. Carney Unlikely to Fuel Post-Brexit Rate Cut Speculation (Publication Centre)

The renewed fall in market interest rates and sterling this month indicates that markets expect the MPC to strike a dovish note at midday, when the Inflation Report is published, alongside the rate decision and minutes of this week's meeting.

4 July 2017 BanRep Speeds up Rate Cuts, Expect Further Stimulus this Month (Publication Centre)

BanRep accelerated the pace of easing last Friday, cutting Colombia's key interest rate by a bold 50 basis points, to 5.75%. Economic activity has been under severe pressure in recent months. The economy expanded by only 1.1% year-over-year in Q1, following an already weak 1.6% in Q4.

8 November. 2016 Rate Cuts are Coming in the Andes, Uncertainty Will Ease Soon (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures are easing rapidly in Colombia, according to October's CPI report, released on Saturday. Inflation fell to 6.5% year-over-year in October, down from 7.3% in September; the consensus expectation was 6.7%.

26 August. 2016 Brazil's Market-set Prices Remain Sticky, Rate Cuts to be Postponed? (Publication Centre)

According to Brazil's mid-August inflation reading, which is a preview of the IPCA index, overall inflation pressures are easing. But some price stickiness remains, due to inertia and temporary shocks, despite the severity of the recession and the rapid deterioration of the labour market in recent months.

7 June 2019 The RBI's Third Rate Cut is Overkill a U-Turn is Likely, Soon (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted yesterday to cut the benchmark repo rate by a further 25 basis points, to 5.75%, a nine-year low.

23 March 2018 Brazil and Colombia to Ease Further, but Chile's Rate Cuts are Over (Publication Centre)

The COPOM meeting was the centre of attention in Brazil this week. The committee cut the main rate by 25 basis points to a new historical low of 6.50%, in line with market expectations.

31 October. 2016 MPC Likely to Reaffirm Easing Bias, to Markets Surprise (Publication Centre)

The MPC would have to change tack sharply on Thursday in order to live up to the markets' expectation that there is a near-zero chance of another rate cut within the next year.

3 April 2017 Brazil's Labour Market is Still Poor, but Likely Will Stabilize Soon (Publication Centre)

Economic data released on Friday underscored our view that bolder rate cuts in Brazil are looming. The BCB's latest BCB's inflation report, released on Thursday, showed that policymakers now see conditions in place to increase the pace of easing "moderately" .

29 June. 2016 New BCB Boss Takes a Hawkish Tone, Rates on Hold in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The publication yesterday of the first BCB quarterly inflation report under the new president, Ilan Golfajn, revealed his initial views on inflation, the currency, and monetary policy. Overall, Mr. Golfajn has taken a hawkish approach. We think Brazil's first rate cut will come no earlier than Q4, likely at the final meeting of the year, providing the government continues the fiscal consolidation process and inflation keeps falling.

5 December 2017 Andean Economies Are Surprising Positively, but Politics is a Risk (Publication Centre)

Peru's inflation continues to surprise to the downside, paving the way for an additional rate cut next week.

14 May 2018 Brazil's Domestic Consumption Will Continue to do Well, Despite Threats (Publication Centre)

Data released last week in Brazil reinforced our view of a modest, final, interest rate cut this week, despite the recent strength of the USD and volatility in global markets.

8 July 2019 No Quick Relief from Food Inflation in Sight for India and China (Publication Centre)

One of the main reasons we expect the Reserve Bank of India to roll back at least one of this year's rate cuts before the end of the year is the likely further rise in food inflation.

8 February 2017 Housing Market Flagging Again as Income Squeeze Intensifies (Publication Centre)

The MPC's interest rate cut in August, and the continued willingness of banks to lend, bolstered the housing market immediately after the referendum. But the latest indicators suggest that the market is slowing again, as the financial pressures on households' incomes intensify.

7 December 2016 Brazil's Copom is Ready to Act Boldly, but Politics Pose Risks (Publication Centre)

In Brazil, the minutes of the Copom's November meeting, released yesterday, are consistent with our forecast for a 50bp rate cut in January. At its last two meetings, the BCB cut the Selic rate by only 25bp, to 13.75%, amid concerns about services inflation, global uncertainty, and the Fed's likely rate hike next week.

26 March 2019 Banxico's Easing Cycle is Near Inflation is Converging to its Target (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days are confirming the story of a struggling economy and falling inflation pressures in Mexico, strengthening our base case of interest rate cuts over the second half of the year.

2 Aug 2019 The BoK Slowly is Setting the Stage for a Quieter Run to the End of 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Korea yesterday laid out its conditions for following July's rate cut with another.

2 August. 2016 The Inflation Outlook Will Tie the MPC's Hands (Publication Centre)

The pronounced weakness of activity surveys conducted since the referendum and the Governor's guidance in June, reinforced by the minutes of July's MPC meeting, indicate that a rate cut on Thursday is virtually guaranteed.

17 Dec. 2014 - Time Runs Out for (Publication Centre)

We think the FOMC's announcement this afternoon will not include the phrase "considerable time", signaling that the first rate cut will come at or before the middle of next year. At the same time, the Fed's new forecasts likely will show the unemployment rate falling into the Fed's estimated Nairu range this year, rather than the spring of 2016, as implied by their September forecasts.

20 March 2017 The BCCh Leaves Open a Tiny Space for Further Easing (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank cut the policy rate 25bp last week to 3.0%, in line with consensus, amid easing inflationary pressures. The timing of the rate cut was no surprise; in January, the BCCh cut rates for the first time in more than two years, and kept a dovish bias.

20 June 2017 Brazil's Recovery Continues, but Politics have Harmed its Prospects (Publication Centre)

Economic data released in recent weeks underscore that Brazil emerged from recession in Q1, but the recovery is fragile and further rate cuts are badly needed. The political crisis has damaged the reform agenda, and political uncertainty lingers.

22 July. 2016 Emerging Divisions on the MPC Signal Only Modest August Easing (Publication Centre)

Soon after last week's vote to keep Bank Rate at 0.50%, the MPC's doves were quick to assert that monetary easing is still imminent. A speech by Andy Haldane, published on July 15, called for "... a package of mutually complementary monetary policy easing measures" that should be "delivered promptly and muscularly". Meanwhile, Gertjan Vlieghe, who was alone in voting for a rate cut in July, wrote in The Financial Times last week that he also favours "a package of additional measures" in August.

22 Oct. 2015 Markets Will Have to Settle for Just Dovish ECB Rhetoric Today (Publication Centre)

Investors looking for more QE and rate cuts will be disappointed by ECB inaction today. We think the Central Bank will keep its main interest rates unchanged, and also maintain the pace of asset purchases at €60B a month. We do, however, look for a slight change in language, hinting that QE is likely to continue beyond September next year.

23 Aug 2019 Chair Powell will Struggle to Meet Market Expectations Today (Publication Centre)

It's going to be very hard for Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech today to satisfy markets, which now expect three further rate cuts by March next year.

23 April 2018 Inflation Started Q2 Below the BCB's Target, but the Trend will Rise in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil remained subdued at the start of the second quarter, strengthening the odds for an additional interest rate cut next month, and opening the door for further stimulus in June.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's new Loan Prime Rate amounts to a rate cut, but supply-side banking strains limit its efficacy. Chinese slowdown and pre-tax front-loading keeps Japan's trade balance in deficit.

2 December 2016 Copom is Still Cautious but Hints at Larger Cuts, BRL Permitting (Publication Centre)

Copom's meeting was the focal point this week in Brazil. The committee eased by 25bp for the second straight meeting, leaving the Selic rate at 13.75%, and it opened the door for larger cuts in Q1. Rates sat at 14.25% for 15 months before the first cut, in October. In this week's post-meeting statement, policymakers identified weak economic activity data, the disinflation process--actual and expectations--and progress on the fiscal front as the forces that prompted the rate cut.

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: A rate cut and QE are on the way.

09 Feb. 2016 How Robust is the Case for Expecting Lower Rates? (Publication Centre)

Investors currently think that official interest rates are more likely to fall than rise this year. Overnight index swap markets are factoring in a 30% chance of a rate cut by December, but just a 1% chance of an increase by year-end. The case for expecting looser monetary policy, however, remains unconvincing.

05 Feb. 2016 Inflation Report Indicates Rate Hike Not as Distant as Markets Think (Publication Centre)

The "Super Thursday" releases from the Monetary Policy Committee--MPC--indicate that financial market turbulence and the approaching E.U. referendum have kiboshed the chances of an interest rate rise in the first half of this year. Nonetheless, the MPC's forecasts clearly imply that it expects to raise rates much sooner than markets currently anticipate, and the Governor signalled that a rate cut isn't under active consideration.

*June 2019 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi will end his ECB tenure with a rate cut...but the economy probably doesn't need one

11 July 2017 Unemployment Likely Fell Again in May, Despite the Slowing Economy (Publication Centre)

May's labour market figures, released on Wednesday, likely will have something for both the doves and the hawks on the MPC , who have been wrangling over whether to reverse last year's rate cut.

11 August 2017 Brazil's Inflation Rate is Falling, Mexico's Will Soon Follow (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in Brazil are now well- contained, with the headline rate falling to a decade low in July. We think inflation is now close to bottoming out, but the current benign rate strengthens our base case forecast for a 100bp rate cut at the next policy meeting, in September.

11 April 2017 Divergent Inflation Trends in the Andes, Will Policymakers Act Soon? (Publication Centre)

Inflation is falling quickly in Colombia, despite the VAT increase in Q1, so we expect more BanRep rate cuts over the next few months. Consumer prices rose 0.5% month-to-month unadjusted in March, pushing the inflation rate down to 4.7% year-over-year, from 5.2% in February. This is the lowest rate in almost two years, thanks to a favourable base effect and fading pressures from food prices.

1 July. 2016 The MPC Likely Will Dash Expectations of Substantial Easing (Publication Centre)

Mark Carney's assertion that "...some monetary policy easing will likely be required over the summer" is a clear signal that an interest rate cut is in the pipeline. But easing likely will be modest, due to the much higher outlook for inflation following sterling's precipitous decline.

*August 2019 - Latin America Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Latam economies remain under strain...The case for interest rate cuts is building

13 January 2017 BCB to Continue Easing Rapidly, Amid Falling Inflation (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank started the year firing on all cylinders. The Copom surprised markets on Wednesday by delivering a bold 75bp rate cut, bringing the Selic rate down to 13.0%. In October and November, the Copom eased by only 25bp, but inflation is now falling rapidly and consistently. The central bank said in its post-meeting communiqué that conditions have helped establish a "new rhythm of easing", assuming inflation expectations hold steady.

*July 2019 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Eurozone GDP growth likely slowed in Q2...teeing up a deposit rate cut in September

LatAm Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rate cuts are looming as the economy loses momentum.

10 July 2017 Banxico Will Start to Mull Lower Interest Rates Early Next Year (Publication Centre)

Mexico's underlying inflation pressures and financial conditions are gradually stabilizing. Eventually, this will open the door for rate cuts in order to ease the stress on the domestic economy, particularly capex.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korea's Q1 GDP downgrade will fuel calls for a rate cut. CPI inflation in Korea should soon peak out. Ignore the uptick in Japanese monetary base; it's a one off.

LatAm Datanote: BCCh Rate Decision, Chile, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: A surprise hefty rate cut; policymakers respond to the subpar recovery and trade war fears.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation edged lower in August, leaving the door open for further interest rate cuts.

14 June 2019 Wage Growth in the Eurozone Remains Strong... Just Sayin' (Publication Centre)

Last week's evidence of still-strong wage growth in the EZ at the start of the year almost surely has gone unnoticed as markets focus on the prospect of rate cuts, not to mention more QE, by the ECB.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI was poised for major disappointment... the trade war impact is clear. Don't be fooled by the relative stability of China's non-manufacturing PMI. Japan's March unemployment uptick was early; April was payback. Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's industrial production ticks up after extreme weakness; don't hold your breath for the recovery. Japan's consumers in poor shape, but maybe it's not that bad. The upswing in Korean industrial production likely to take a breather this month. The BoK holds firm, despite rising calls for a rate cut.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another robust report, undermining the case for a rate cut.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Growth isn't slow enough to warrant a rate cut.

8 February 2019 Fiscal Deadlines Promise Drama, but Probably not Crises (Publication Centre)

Two fiscal deadlines are on the near-horizon.

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: Search Results: 175

pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research