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19 matches for " price pressures":

16 July 2018 Upside Risks to the Consensus for June CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

We expect June's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation increased to 2.7%, from 2.4% in May, above the consensus, 2.6%, and the Bank of England's forecast, 2.5%.

14 September 2016 Labour Market Report Likely to be Soft all Round (Publication Centre)

Today's figures likely will bring the first real signs that the Brexit vote has had an adverse impact on the labour market. The employment balances of the key private-sector surveys weakened sharply in July, and recovered only partially in August. In addition, the three-month average level of job vacancies fell by 7K between April and July.

17 June 2019 The MPC Won't Strike the Dovish Tone Markets Want to Hear (Publication Centre)

The MPC will have to issue fresh, dovish guidance in order to satisfy markets on Thursday, which now think the Committee is more likely to cut than raise Bank Rate within the next six months.

2 August 2018 The Door for a Bank of Korea Rate Hike in August Closes Further (Publication Centre)

The past two days have seen a slew of data that should keep the hawks in the Bank of Korea at bay during the Board's meeting at the end of this month.

22 July 2019 Will Mr. Draghi Set a New CPI Target for Ms. Largarde to Pursue (Publication Centre)

Speculation that the ECB is considering a rethink of its inflation target has intensified in the past few weeks.

21 November 2018 Korean PPI Points to Cascading Drops in Inflation Elsewhere in Asia (Publication Centre)

PPI inflation in Korea slowed sharply in October, to a five-month low of 2.2%, from 2.7% in September.

2 Mar. 2015 Eurozone Deflation Pressures Eased Slightly in February (Publication Centre)

Advance inflation data in the Eurozone will likely surprise to the upside today. The consensus forecast expects inflation to rise slightly to -0.5% year-over-year in February from -0.6% in January, but we expect a much bigger jump, to -0.2% year-over-year.

6 March 2018 Easing Services Price Pressures Undermine the Rate Hike Case (Publication Centre)

The case for the MPC to hold back from raising interest rates in May remains strong, despite the improvement in the Markit/CIPS services survey in February.

6 February 2017 Growth Indicators Start to Turn Down as Price Pressures Escalate (Publication Centre)

The run of above-consensus news on the U.K. economy came to an abrupt end last week, as a series of survey indicators for January took a turn for the worse. After six months of breathing space, the economic consequences of the Brexit vote are increasingly being felt.

18 October 2017 Weak Underlying Price Pressures Give the MPC Scope to Wait (Publication Centre)

A November interest rate rise is far from the done deal that markets still anticipate, even though CPI inflation rose to 3.0% in September from 2.9% in August.

13 September 2016 Sterling is Already Stoking Price Pressures, More to Come (Publication Centre)

August's consumer price figures, released today, likely will show that households' spending power is being increasingly eroded by rising inflation. We think CPI inflation picked up to 0.8%, from 0.6% in July, exceeding the consensus, 0.7%, for the third consecutive month.

15 February 2017 Upward Inflation Trend Still Strong, Despite January's Modest Rise (Publication Centre)

January's CPI inflation of 1.8%, up from 1.6% in December, was one-tenth lower than anticipated by the consensus, the Bank of England and ourselves. The undershoot, however, was entirely due to a pull-back in clothing inflation which is unlikely to be sustained. Price pressures across the rest of the economy have continued to intensify, suggesting that CPI inflation still is on course greatly to exceed the 2% target later this year.

13 January 2017 The MPC Is In For a Nasty Inflation Shock This Year (Publication Centre)

Over the last decade, the MPC has underestimated the extent and duration of departures of CPI inflation from the 2% target. Inflation exceeded the MPC's expectations in the early 2010s, as policymakers underestimated the impact of sterling's prior depreciation and overestimated the role that slack would play in stifling price pressures. Inflation also undershot the MPC's forecast between 2014 and 2016, when sterling's appreciation reduced import prices.

11 Jan. 2016 Plunging Oil Prices Won't Distract the MPC as Inflation Rises (Publication Centre)

Investors have lowered once again their expectations for official interest rates and now do not anticipate any rate hikes this year. Markets appear to have judged that the plunge in oil prices will ensure that inflation is too low for the Monetary Policy Committee to tighten policy. Oil prices, however, are not the be-all and end-all for inflation or monetary policy, and we doubt they will distract the MPC from the continued firming of domestic price pressures this year.

17 June. 2015 Mind The Gap Between Inflation and Cyclical Indicators in The EZ (Publication Centre)

Final German inflation data for May confirm that price pressures are gradually recovering in the Eurozone. Inflation rose to 0.7% in May, up from 0.5% in April, in line with the initial estimate. Headline inflation continues to move higher, a trend which will continue in the second half of the year as base effects push up energy inflation.

18 Jan. 2016 Falling Energy Prices Won't Prevent Inflation Rising (Publication Centre)

December's consumer prices figures, released tomorrow, look set to show CPI inflation ticked up to 0.2% from 0.1% in November, despite the renewed collapse in oil prices. The further fall in energy prices this year means that the inflation print won't reach 1% until May's figures are published in June. But Governor Carney has emphasised that core price pressures will motivate the first rate hike--a focus he likely will reiterate in a speech on Tuesday-- meaning that a May lift-off is still on the table.

3 Feb. 2015 Inflation will trough in Q3 (Publication Centre)

One of the questions we have been asked recently is when inflation in the euro area will trough this year. This is difficult to answer without a look at the structural drivers of price pressures in Europe.

20 Oct. 2015 Inflation Rebound to Force MPC's Hand, Even if Recovery Slows (Publication Centre)

The consensus view on the Monetary Policy Committee, that it will take two years for CPI inflation to return to the 2% target, looks complacent. Leading indicators suggest that price pressures will return faster than both policymakers and markets expect. Interest rates are therefore likely to rise in the first half of 2016, even if the recovery loses momentum.

*Nov. 2015 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Recovery shifting to a lower gear...but price pressures will force rate hikes next year

Consistently Right

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