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Search Results: 34
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23 July 2019 Shock News Politicians Choose not to Cut Spending in Election Year (Publication Centre)

As we reach our deadline--4pm eastern time--media reports indicate that a debt ceiling agreement is close.

13 Nov 2019 Will Politicians in Spain Face up to Reality This Time Around? (Publication Centre)

The political situation in Spain remains an odd example of how complete gridlock can be a source of relative stability.

21 Oct 2019 Political Uncertainty Comes to U.S. Markets, What Happens Next (Publication Centre)

In recent client meetings the first and last topic of conversation has been the market implications of the possible departure of President Trump from office.

21 August 2018 The End of the Beginning for the Greek Public Debt Tragedy (Publication Centre)

Greece's exit from eight years of near constant bail-out programs raises as many questions as it answers.

20 May 2020 The Labor Market Data will Drive Congress to Act Again (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell broke no new ground in his Senate Testimony alongside--virtually--Treasury Secretary Mnuchin yesterday, maintaining the cautious tone of his recent public statements.

17 Feb 2020 The Coronavirus is a Threat to LatAm, But it Economies Won't Collapse (Publication Centre)

Over the past 30 years China's role in LatAm and the global economy has increased sharply. Its share of world trade has surged, and its exports have gained significant market share in LatAm.

18 January 2018 China's Regulation Juggernaut Rolls into 2018. Enforcement Intensifies? (Publication Centre)

At the end of last year, after October's Party Congress, the Chinese authorities came out with significant new directives and regulations on an almost weekly basis.

19 Nov 2019 Chile's Economy Shifted into Higher Gear in Q3, it will Stall in Q4 and Q1 (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q3 GDP report, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy gathered speed in the third quarter, but this is now in the rearview mirror.

24 Oct 2019 A Standing Ovation for Mr. Draghi Today as he Departs the ECB (Publication Centre)

Today's ECB meeting will mainly be a victory lap for Mr. Draghi--it is the president's last meeting before Ms. Lagarde takes over--rather than the scene of any major new policy decisions.

29 October 2018 Bolsonaro Likely Won Brazil's Presidency, the Hard Work Begins (Publication Centre)

Recent polls suggest that Jair Bolsonaro has comfortably beaten Fernando Haddad, to become Brazil's president.

6 June 2019 Japanese Tax Hike Delay now More Likely, Even with a Q1 GDP Upgrade (Publication Centre)

We are sticking to our call for a weak first half in Japan, despite likely upgrades to Q1 GDP on Monday.

6 Nov 2019 Some Preliminary Thoughts on EZ Fiscal Policy Next Year (Publication Centre)

Judging by interactions with readers in the past few weeks, fiscal policy is one of the most important topics for EZ investors as we move into the final stretch of the year.

9 Mar 2020 Global Virus Cases Accelerating, but China and Korea Show it's Beatable (Publication Centre)

A third wave of Covid-19 outbreaks is now underway. The first, in China, is now under control, and the rate of increase of cases in South Korea has dropped sharply. The other second wave countries, Italy and Iran, are still struggling.

5 May 2020 EZ Manufacturing Crashed and Burned at the Start of Q2 (Publication Centre)

Services will bear the brunt of the Covid-19 shock in the euro area, but manufacturing is not far behind.

30 Mar 2020 Covid-19 is a Battering Ram to EZ Economic Policymaking  (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus outbreak, by definition, will fade eventually, but we suspect the measures to combat it will be more long-lasting. In terms of sheer scale, EZ governments and the ECB are throwing the kitchen sink at the virus, but that's only half the story.

29 October 2018 Is the Only Way Up for Public Borrowing from Here? (Publication Centre)

Later today, the Chancellor likely will take the first step towards abandoning plans for further fiscal tightening. In

3 June 2019 Trade is Now Trump's Weapon for Everything, but it Shoots Backwards (Publication Centre)

The chance of a self-inflicted, unnecessary weakening in the economy this year, and perhaps even a recession, has increased markedly in the wake of the president's announcement on Friday that tariffs will be applied to all imports from Mexico, from June 10.

16 Mar 2020 Is EZ Fiscal Policy Finally Stepping Up? And if So, What will it Do? (Publication Centre)

EZ investors are still trying to come to grips with last week's terrifying price action, culminating in the 12.5% crash in equities on Thursday

14 May 2018 Germany's Problem is Increasingly Clear: It has too Much Money (Publication Centre)

Germany's newly-appointed finance minister, Olaf Scholz, proudly announced earlier this month that his country would be running a budget surplus of €63B over the next four years--about 1.9% of GDP between now and 2022--some €14B more than initially estimated.

15 Jan 2020 It's Time to Allocate Serious Capital to Clean Energy in Europe (Publication Centre)

Eurozone investors should by now be accustomed to direct intervention in private financial markets by policymakers.

13 May 2020 Are Markets Ready for the Jump in EZ Sovereign Debt Supply (Publication Centre)

Analysts have fiercely debated the consequences of the U.S. Treasury's plan to break the bank in Q2 with a whopping €3T issuance of new debt to cover the initial costs of Covid-19.

11 May 2020 The Labor Market is Worse than April's Headlines Suggest (Publication Centre)

Hideous though the official April payroll numbers were, the chances are that they'll be revised down.

13 Sept 2019 The ECB Fires Both Barrels It Won't Stop Until CPI is at 2% (Publication Centre)

The ECB disappointed slightly on the big headlines in yesterday's policy announcements, but it delivered shock and awe with the details

26 June 2019 COPOM is Ready to Cut Rates, but Only if Politicians Don't Mess Up (Publication Centre)

Politics in Brazil has been busy in recent days, with local media reporting several items of interest.

16 Sept 2019 Textbook EZ Wage Data, but the Policy Response Won't Be (Publication Centre)

Last week's policy announcement by the ECB and Mr. Draghi's plea to EU politicians to deliver a fiscal boost, indicate that we're living in extraordinary economic times.

13 July. 2015 Dull Yellen Testimony Given Greek Story - then Back to Labor Data? (Publication Centre)

We expect Greece to do what it needs to do by Wednesday to secure its third bailout, and, judging by her speech in Cleveland last Friday, so does the Fed Chair. It's always risky to assume blithely that European politicians will do the right thing in the end, and they seem absolutely determined to humiliate Greece before writing the checks, but a completed deal is the most likely outcome.

10 October. 2016 The Sterling Crisis has Tied Policymakers' Hands (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s dependence on large inflows of external finance was laid alarmingly b are last week, when "hard" Brexit talk by politicians caused overseas investors to give sterling assets a wide berth. Investors now are demanding extra compensation for holding U.K. assets, because the medium-term outlook is so uncertain.

17 March 2017 Embattled Pro-EU Parties Secure Decisive Victory in the Netherlands (Publication Centre)

Centrist politicians and markets breathed a sigh of relief yesterday as the results of the Dutch parliamentary elections rolled in. The incumbent conservatives, led by PM Mark Rutte, lost ground but emerged as parliament's biggest party with 33 seats out of the total 150.

1 December 2017 The BoK Jumps on the Global Tightening Wave. Rocky Ride Ahead (Publication Centre)

President Moon was elected earlier this year on a promise to rebalance the economy toward domestic demand and reduce export dependency. It's not the first time politicians have received such a mandate.

29 May 2018 A Peek into the Abyss of an Italian Parallel Currency and Euro Exit (Publication Centre)

We have to hand it to Italy's politicians. In an economy with a current account surplus of 3% of GDP, a nearly balanced net foreign asset position and with the majority of government debt held by domestic investors, the leading parties have managed to prompt markets to flatten the yield curve via a jump in shortterm interest rates.

30 June. 2015 Greece and the Eurozone in Limbo Until the Referendum in Greece (Publication Centre)

Eurozone politicians are likely scrambling for a last gasp return to negotiations before the Greek bailout program ends at the end of today. But progress will likely be limited until we have the result of the planned Greek referendum on Sunday. Voters will be asked essentially on whether they agree with the proposal presented by the institutions. The government will campaign for a "no," but a "yes" looks more likely, based on polls that Greeks want to stay in the Eurozone.

28 September 2018 Trend in EZ Real M1 Indicates that Markets are Too Optimistic on Growth in 2019 (Publication Centre)

As we go to press, it appears that politicians in Italy have agreed on a 2019 budget deficit of 2.4% of GDP.

24 August 2018 What Probability are Markets Attaching to a No-Deal Brexit? (Publication Centre)

Speculation that the U.K. will end up leaving the E.U. in March without a deal has dominated the headlines over the last month. Politicians on both sides of the Channel have warned that the probability of a no-deal Brexit is at least as high as 50%, even though more than 80% of the withdrawal deal already has been agreed.

Samuel Tombs

Samuel Tombs has more than a decade of experience covering the U.K. economy for investors. At Pantheon, Samuel's research is rigorous, free of dogma and jargon, and unafraid to challenge consensus views. His work focuses on what matters to professional investors: The links between the real economy, monetary policy and asset prices. He has a strong track record of getting the big calls right. The Sunday Times ranked Samuel as the most accurate forecaster of the U.K. economy in both 2014 and 2018. In addition, Bloomberg consistently has ranked Samuel as one of the top three U.K. forecasters, out of pool of 35 economists, throughout 2018 and 2019. His in-depth knowledge of market-moving data and his forensic forecasting approach explain why he consistently beats the consensus. Samuel's work on Brexit goes beyond simply reporting developments and is always analytical and unbiased, enabling investors to see through the noise of the daily headlines. While his analysis points to a particular path that politicians will take, he acknowledges the inherent uncertainty and draws out the economic and financial market implications of all plausible Brexit scenarios. Samuel holds an MSc in Economics from Birkbeck College, University of London and an undergraduate degree in History and Economics from the University of Oxford. Prior to joining Pantheon in 2015, he was Senior U.K. Economist at Capital Economics. In 2011, Samuel won the Society of Business Economists' prestigious Rybczynski Prize for an article on quantitative easing in the UK. He is based in London but frequently visits our other offices. Recent key calls include: 2018 - Correctly forecast that GDP growth would slow and inflation would undershoot the MPC's initial forecast, prompting the Committee to shock investors and almost other economists by waiting until August to raise Bank Rate, rather than pressing ahead in May. 2017 - Argued that the MPC was wrong to expect CPI inflation to stay below 3% following sterling's depreciation. He also highlighted that economic indicators pointed to the Conservatives losing their outright majority in the snap general election.

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