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91 matches for " pm forecast":
The Covid-19 scare can be split into two stages, the initial outbreak in China, concentrated in Wuhan, and the now-worrying signs that clusters are forming in other parts of the world, primarily in South Korea, the Middle East and Italy.
Outright CPI deflation likely already has taken hold in Japan. Friday's data showed inflation falling to zero percent in September, from 0.2% in the previous month.
The headline EZ data added to the evidence of a weakening recovery while we were away.
The November IFO report suggests that the headline indices are on track for a tepid recovery in Q4 as a whole, but the central message is still one of downside risks to growth
On a headline level, yesterday's IFO in Germany confirmed the main message from last week's PMIs.
Headline M3 money supply growth in the Eurozone was steady as a rock at around 5% year-over-year between 2014 and the end of 2017.
In order fully to reverse the fall in GDP in the first and second quarters, the third quarter needs to grow at a 45.7% annualized rate.
As the dust settles from Wednesday's budget proposal by the EU Commission--see here--economists and investors are left with a myriad of questions.
This EZ calendar is extremely busy over the next few days, so we'll use this Monitor to preview the key numbers, before turning our focus on the ECB in tomorrow's report.
French consumers remained in great spirits midway through the fourth quarter. The headline INSEE consumer confidence index jumped to a 28-month high in November, from 104 in October, extending its v-shaped recovery from last year's plunge on the back of the yellow vest protests.
The German economy finished last year on the back foot.
The PMIs in the Eurozone are still warning that the economy is in much worse shape than implied by remarkably stable GDP growth so far this year.
The coronavirus ordeal continues in LatAm as a whole.
We have been on the ECB's case recently. The action taken at last week's official meeting--see here--fell short of market expectations, but more importantly, Ms. Lagarde's communication around the decisions was disastrous.
The Brazilian economy fell into recession over the first half of the year due to the severity of the Covid shock on domestic demand.
Friday's data deluge delivered uplifting, if backward- looking, news in the EZ economy. Eurostat's advance report showed that GDP jumped by 12.7% quarter-on- quarter in Q3, partially reversing the cumulative 15.5% collapse during lockdown in the first half of the year.
CPI inflation took a big step in April towards the near-zero rate we anticipate by the summer.
The year so far in EZ equities has been just as odd as in the global market as a whole.
Yesterday was a watershed moment for investors.
Japan's advance PMI numbers for August suggest that the economy dodged most of the bullets fired by the second wave of Covid-19.
Today's ECB meeting will mainly be a victory lap for Mr. Draghi--it is the president's last meeting before Ms. Lagarde takes over--rather than the scene of any major new policy decisions.
Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs confirmed that the headline index in the euro area rebounded further last month.
The first economic report of 2020 confirmed the main story in the euro area last year; namely a recession in manufacturing.
Manufacturers in Germany endured another miserable quarter in Q3.
The ink has hardly dried on economists' and the ECB's inflation projections for 2020, but we suspect that some forecasters are already considering ripping up the script.
Friday's final June PMI data confirmed the survey's recovery through Q2. The composite index edged higher to 48.5, from 31.9 in May, extending its rebound from a low of just 13.6 in April.
A range of indicators show that the pace of the economic recovery shifted up a gear in July, when all shops were open for the entire month, and most consumer services providers finally were permitted to reopen.
Productivity statistics released yesterday continued to paint a bleak picture. Output per worker rose by a mere 0.1% year-over-year in Q3, despite jumping by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter.
If you had predicted at the start of the year that the ECB balance sheet would leap by just over €1.5T in H1, you would have been laughed out of the room.
China's export data for April were a mixed bag, to say the least.
January's GDP report, released on Wednesday, was set to be one of the most important data releases of this year, due to its role in providing the first official steer on the economy's post-election performance.
The Fed's 50bp rate cut last week, aiming to shield the U.S. economy against Covid-19, has opened the door for some central banks in LatAm to emulate the move.
The coronavirus outbreak has pushed inflation lower in the Andean economies as the shock drives them into the deepest recession on record.
Friday's final PMI data for March were even more terrifying than the advance numbers. The composite index in the euro area collapsed to 29.7, from 51.6 in February, lower than the consensus 31.4. A downward revision was coming.
Normally, we wouldn't pin our story on the fact that the PMIs are signalling a risk of outright contraction in the economy, but on this occasion we think the surveys are on the money.
Yesterday's ECB meeting conformed to the consensus and our own expectations. The central bank left its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged, at 0.00% and -0.5% respectively, and also maintained the pace and level of its QE programs.
Yesterday's advance CPI data in Germany suggest that EZ inflation is now rebounding slightly.
Data released last week confirm that Argentina's economy remains a mess.
On the face of it, yesterday's German consumption data were disappointingly weak.
Data yesterday showed that German inflation roared higher at the start of the year, but the devil is in the detail.
Yesterday's first estimate of Q2 GDP in Mexico confirmed that the economy has been under severe stress in recent months.
The ECB took another big step yesterday in assuring markets that it won't waver in the fight against Covid-19.
Markets were left somewhat disappointed yesterday by the G7 statement that central banks and finance ministers stand ready "to use all appropriate policy tools to achieve strong, sustainable growth and safeguard against downside risks."
The near-term performance for EZ manufacturing will be a tug-of-war between positive technical factors, and a still-poor fundamental outlook.
Italy's economy is still bumping along the bottom, after emerging from recession in the middle of last year.
April's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, likely will show that CPI inflation plunged and is heading quickly to a near-zero rate by the summer.
Economic conditions in Brazil are deteriorating rapidly.
It's still unclear how exactly Covid-19 will impact the euro area as a whole, but little doubt now remains that Italy's economy is in for a rough ride.
The People's Bank of China likely will be more than content with the latest money and credit data, to the point where it probably won't see the need to cut interest rates further anytime soon.
Yesterday's Sentix investor sentiment survey provided the first glimpse of conditions on the ground in the EZ economy in the wake of the coronavirus scare.
Last week finished as it started, with more depressing economic numbers in the Eurozone, this time from manufacturing in the core economies.
Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were ugly.
The Fed paved the way with a 50bp emergency rate cut on March 3, with more to come.
Core machine orders in Japan collapsed in April, as expected, falling by 12.0% month-on-month, worse than the minor 0.4% slip in March.
We expect May's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that the headline rate of CPI inflation fell to a four-year low of 0.4% in May, from 0.8% in April.
The U.K. general election is the main event in today's European calendar, but the first official ECB meeting and press conference under the leadership of Ms. Lagarde also deserves attention.
We expect June's GDP data, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered momentum in June, having got off to a faltering start in May.
The balance of risks is finely poised ahead of today's ECB meeting.
We can't quibble with the consensus that GDP likely rose by 0.2% month-to-month in December, reversing only two-thirds of November's drop.
The early Q4 hard data in Germany recovered a bit of ground yesterday.
The more headline hard data we see in the Eurozone, the more we are getting the impression that 2019 is the year of stabilisation, rather than a precursor to recession.
Data released in recent days have started to reveal a story of horror and misery in the Brazilian economy.
Friday's industrial production data in the core EZ economies, for December, were startlingly poor. In Germany, industrial production plunged by 3.5% month-to-month, comfortably reversing the revised 1.2% rise in November.
Yesterday's industrial production report in Germany was much better than implied by the poor new orders data--see here--released earlier this week.
We're now starting to see clear signs in unofficial data that households are slashing their expenditure on discretionary services, in order to minimise their chances of catching the coronavirus.
Yesterday's third and detailed EZ GDP data confirmed the economy hit the wall in Q1.
Yesterday's trade data in Germany added to the evidence of a relatively slow rebound as the domestic and European economies emerged from lockdown.
The Q1 GDP figures, released on Wednesday, likely will show that the quarter-on-quarter decline in economic activity eclipsed the biggest decline in the 2008-to-09 recession--2.1% in Q4 2008--even though the U.K. went into lockdown towards the very end of the quarter.
Yesterday's EZ industrial production report conformed to expectations.
Friday's EZ data provide a good base from which to recap the main themes midway through the third quarter. The second estimate of Q2 GDP confirmed the initial headline that output plunged by 12.1% quarter- on-quarter, extending the decline from a 3.6% fall in Q1.
Today's ECB meeting will be a snoozer.
We still expect CPI inflation to decline a little further in the second half of this year, despite its surprise increase to 0.6% in June, from 0.5% in May.
Judging by the solid advance data in the major economies, yesterday's EZ industrial production report should have hit desks with a bang, but it was a whimper in the end.
Friday' second Q4 GDP estimate revealed that the EZ economy barely grew at the end of 2019. The report confirmed that GDP rose by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, slowing from a 0.3% rise in Q3, but the headline only narrowly avoided downward revision to zero, at just 0.058%
The outlook for growth in the EZ economy is currently both stable and relatively uncomplicated, at least based on the most widely-watched leading indicators.
The Eurozone economy all but stalled at the start of Q4.
The MPC surprised yesterday both with its bullish take on the economy's current health, and with the news that it will begin, in Q4, "structured engagement on the operational considerations" regarding negative rates.
Friday's second Q1 GDP estimate confirmed that lockdowns to halt the spread of Covid-19 hurt the EZ economy in Q1. Real GDP plunged by 3.8% quarter-on- quarter, following a 0.1% rise in Q4, in line with the first estimate.
The drop in CPI inflation to 0.5% in May, from 0.8% in April, brought it another big step closer to the near-zero rate we foresee in the second half of this year.
Friday's sole economic report showed that wage growth in France remained robust mid-way through the year. The non-seasonally adjusted private wage index, ex-agriculture and public sector workers, published by the Labour Ministry, rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q3.
Yesterday's second Q3 GDP estimate confirmed that the EZ economy expanded by 0.2% quarter-on- quarter in Q3, the same pace as in Q2, leaving the year-over-year rate unchanged at 1.2%.
Today's second Q3 GDP estimate in the Eurozone has been rendered even more meaningless after this week's news that an effective vaccine could now be a reality as early as the beginning of 2021,
June's consumer price figures, released on Wednesday, probably will be overshadowed this week by data for May for GDP--see our detailed preview here--and the labour market.
The French manufacturing data delivered another upside surprise last week, following the solid numbers in Germany; see here. French industrial production rose slightly in November, by 0.3% month-to-month, extending the gains from an upwardly-revised 0.5% rise in October.
The U.K. economy underperformed its peers to an extraordinary degree in Q2.
Core machine orders in Japan surprised to the upside in August, when the country's second wave of Covid-19 peaked.
Yesterday's data provided further evidence of the damage wrought on the EZ at the end of Q1.
Korea's unemployment rate rose faster than expected in May, jumping to 4.5%, from 3.8% in April. We've been arguing for some time that the delayed impact of the economic growth slowdown from late- 2017 to early-2019 would eventually push the jobless rate to the mid-4% level this year; the sudden stop caused by Covid-19 merely sped up this process.
Sterling leapt to $1.27, from $1.22 last week, amid some positive signals from all sides engaged in Brexit talks.
Manufacturing in the EZ was held above water by Ireland at the end of Q3.
Yesterday's EZ data showed that French households came out swinging as the economy reopened. Consumers' spending, ex-services, jumped by 36.6% month-to-month in May, driving the year-over-year rate up to -8.3%, from -32.7% in April.
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