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26 July 2017 National Surveys are Not Bogged Down by Disappointing PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national business surveys provided an optimistic counterbalance to the underwhelming PMIs on Monday, although they all suggest that the euro area economy is in good form.

25 September 2017 Another Month, Another Robust PMI Report in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy ended the third quarter on a strong note, according to the PMIs.

26 June 2017 Equity Markets will Worry if EZ PMIs Fall Further in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone PMIs stumbled at the end of Q2. The composite index slipped to a five-month low of 55.7 in June, from 56.8 in May, constrained by a fall in the services index. This offset a marginal rise in the manufacturing index to a new cyclical high. The dip in the headline does not alter the survey's upbeat short- term outlook for the economy.

26 Oct. 2015 PMIs Point to Firm GDP Growth Ahead in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Friday's PMIs gave the first hint of Q4 growth in the Eurozone, and continue to tell a story of a stable cyclical recovery. The composite PMI in the Eurozone rose 54.0 in October from 53.6 in September, mainly due to a rise in the services index, to 54.2 from 53.7. Assuming the PMI remains unchanged over the remainder of the quarter, the survey indicates solid GDP growth of 0.4%-to-0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4.

26 September 2016 PMIs Point to Slower EZ GDP Growth, but Details are Confusing (Publication Centre)

Friday's PMI data in the Eurozone added to the evidence that GDP growth is slowing, after a cyclical peak last year. The composite PMI in the euro area slipped to a 21-month low of 52.6 in September, from 52.9 in August.

25 Sept 2020 The IFO and INSEE Data are More Nuanced than the PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national survey data painted a more nuanced picture of the recovery in the major Eurozone economies than the warning sent by the PMIs earlier in the week; see here.

25 Sept 2019 Japan's September PMI Points to Strong Q3 Deterioration Thereafter (Publication Centre)

Japan's September PMI report showed some slippage, but overall, it suggests that GDP growth in Q3 was a little stronger than the 0.3% quarter- on-quarter rate in Q2.

25 Nov 2019 The New Flash PMIs: Plenty of Noise, not Much Signal (Publication Centre)

Investors think it more likely that the MPC will cut Bank Rate in the first half of next year, following Friday's release of the flash Markit/CIPS PMIs for November.

25 Mar. 2015 PMIs point strengthening cyclical recovery (Publication Centre)

Evidence is mounting that the cyclical recovery in the Eurozone accelerated further in the first quarter. The Composite PMI in the euro area rose to 54.1 in March, up from 53.3 in February, taking the quarterly average to 53.3, its highest level since the second quarter of 2011. Combined with latest available retail sales and industrial production data, this is consistent with real GDP growth in the euro area accelerating to about 0.4-to-0.5% quarter-on quarter in the first quarter, from 0.3% in Q4.

25 Nov 2019 The PMI Data Still Signal Weaker Growth ahead in the EZ (Publication Centre)

The PMIs in the Eurozone are still warning that the economy is in much worse shape than implied by remarkably stable GDP growth so far this year.

25 October 2017 EZ PMIs Stepped Back at the Start of Q4, but Still Signal Solid Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance PMI reports in the euro area signal that economic momentum slowed slightly at the start of Q4.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs and Money Supply, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty PMIs; money supply details better than the headline.

27 Jan 2020 The EZ PMIs were Soft in January, but the German Data were Solid (Publication Centre)

Friday's PMI data were a mixed bag.

27 Jan 2020 The PMI Rebound Should Suffice for the MPC to Stand its Ground (Publication Centre)

The recovery in the composite PMI to 52.4 in January, from 49.3 in December, should convince a majority of MPC members to vote on Thursday to maintain Bank Rate at 0.75%.

3 January 2019 China's PMIs Deteriorate What are the Positives Amid the Gloom (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI doused hopes of turning over a January new leaf; it dropped to 49.7 in November, from 50.2 in December.

3 January 2018 Caixin PMI Overstates Momentum, but Activity will Strengthen in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI picked up to 51.5 in December from 50.8 in November. But the jump looks erratic and we expect it to correct in January.

3 July 2020 Can Any Valuable Information be Extracted from the PMIs? (Publication Centre)

The release today of the final reading of the composite PMI for June will provoke further debate over its usefulness in charting the economy's recovery from the Covid-19 shock.

3 May 2017 April's Higher Manufacturing PMI Won't Be Sustained (Publication Centre)

The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI shot up to a three-year high of 57.3 in April, from 54.2 in March, bringing an end to the run of downbeat news on the economy. The performance of the U.K. manufacturing sector, however, remains underwhelming, given the magnitude of sterling's depreciation.

3 May 2018 China's PMI Export Orders Paint an Overly Gloomy Picture (Publication Centre)

The forward-looking indices of China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for April attracted more attention than the headline, which was a bit of a non-event; it rose trivially 51.1, from 51.0 in March.

3 Dec 2019 Is the Caixin Manufacturing PMI Uptrend Justified (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs put in a better performance in November, with the official gauge ticking up to 50.2 in November, from 49.3 in October, and the Caixin measure little changed, at 51.8, up from 51.7.

3 Dec 2019 A Look at the Bright Side in the EZ Manufacturing PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs confirmed that the headline index in the euro area rebounded further last month.

27 March 2017 Eurozone PMI Data are Sizzling, but can they be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance Eurozone PMI reports capped a fine quarter for the survey. The composite PMI jumped to a 80-month high of 56.7 in March, from 56.1 in February, rising to a cyclical high over Q1 as a whole.

27 July. 2015 PMIs Point to Stable GDP Growth, but EM Rout is Hurting Germany (Publication Centre)

The July Eurozone PMI survey echoed the message from consumer sentiment earlier of a mild dip in momentum going into Q3. The composite PMI in the euro area fell to 53.7, from 54.2 in June due mainly to a fall in the services index. Companies' own expectations for future business fell in the core, but the survey was conducted soon after the Greek referendum. Markit claims this didn't depress the data, but we are on alert for revisions to the headline and expectations next week, or a rebound next month.

27 November 2018 Japan's Flash PMI Puts a Q4 GDP Rebound into Serious Doubt (Publication Centre)

Japan's flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI report for November was abysmal, putting the chances of a recovery this quarter into serious doubt.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing (Publication Centre)

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7% second quarter plunge.

28 Oct 2019 The PM Can Get His Election Soon, But He Must Pay a Higher Price (Publication Centre)

MPs will be asked today to approve the PM's motion, proposed in accordance with the Fixed-term Parliaments Act--FTPA--to hold a general election on December 12.

25 Mar 2020 The Plunge in Japan's Services PMI Confirms a Recession is Underway (Publication Centre)

If Japan's flash PMIs for March are a sign of things to come, then the government really should get moving on fiscal stimulus.

25 Mar 2020 GDP Likely is Falling Much Faster than Even the Gloomy PMIs Imply (Publication Centre)

Even the record-breaking slump in Markit's composite PMI probably understates the hit to economic activity from Covid-19 and the emergency measures to slow its spread.

24 Feb 2020 Covid-19 Takes out Hope of Japan's Q1 Recovery, PMIs Show (Publication Centre)

Japan's January PMIs sent a clear signal that the virus impact is not to be underestimated. The manufacturing PMI fell to 47.6 in February, from 48.8 in January, contrasting sharply with the rising headlines of last week's batch of European PMIs.

24 August. 2016 "Breaking News": EZ PMIs Signal Unchanged GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance EZ PMI data were virtually unchanged from previous months, yet again. The composite PMI rose trivially to 53.3 in August from 53.2 in July; this means that the index has been almost stable since February. The headline was lifted by a small increase in services, which offset a slight decline in manufacturing.

24 Feb 2020 The PMIs are Lost in Translation, Here is What You Need to Know (Publication Centre)

Friday's PMIs were supposed to provide the first reliable piece of evidence of the coronavirus on euro area businesses, but they didn't. Instead, they left economists dazed, confused and scrambling for a suitable narrative.

24 June 2019 Further Evidence of Stabilisation in EZ Growth from the PMIs (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance PMI data for the Eurozone added further evidence of stabilisation in the economy after the sharp slowdown in GDP growth since the beginning of last year.

24 June 2020 Steady as She Goes in the EZ PMIs, the Rebound Continues (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's June PMIs offered more of the same, insofar as the survey's key message goes in the past few months.

24 August 2018 The Glass is Half-Full in the Eurozone PMI Data for August (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI data in the Eurozone economy were a mixed bag.

24 Aug 2020 The EZ August PMIs were Poor, but they weren't Catastrophic (Publication Centre)

We are currently operating with a very simply rule-of- thumb for interpreting the PMIs.

23 Mar 2020 Brace for an Unprecedented Slump in the Composite PMI (Publication Centre)

The drop in the flash composite PMI in March will be one for the record books, unfortunately. We look for an unprecedented drop to 43.0, from 53.3 in February, which would undershoot the 45.0 consensus and signal clearly that a deep recession is underway.

23 June. 2015 Oil Firms' Equipment Capex Can't Fall Forever - is it Close to Bottom? (Publication Centre)

We are intrigued by the idea that the rollover in oil firms' capital spending on equipment might already be over, even as spending on new well-drilling--captured by the still-falling weekly operating rigs data--continues to decline. The evidence to suggest equipment spending has fallen far enough is straightforward.

23 Sept 2020 We're Looking for a Downside Surprise in Today's PMI Data (Publication Centre)

Judging by the trend in investor sentiment, today's PMI data will look great.

24 April 2018 Japan's PMI Lends Strength to the Nascent Re ation Story (Publication Centre)

Japan's manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 in April, from 53.1 in March. The index weakened earlier this year, but remained at levels unjustified by the hard data.

24 April 2018 Welcome Signs of Stabilisation in the Eurozone PMI Data (Publication Centre)

Eurozone investors will be drawing a sigh of relief after yesterday's PMI data. The alarming plunge in February and March made way for stabilisation, with the composite PMI in the euro area unchanged at 55.2 in April.

24 June. 2015 Another Upbeat PMI Report Adds to the Cyclical Optimism in the EZ (Publication Centre)

The PMI survey yesterday painted a more upbeat picture on the Eurozone economy than we expected. The composite index rose to 54.1 in June from 53.6 in May, taking the quarterly average to its highest level since Q2 2011.

24 May. 2016 EZ PMI Data Suggest that GDP Growth is Slowing Marginally (Publication Centre)

Eurozone PMI data yesterday presented investors with a confusing message. The composite index fell marginally to 52.9 in May, from 53.0 in April, despite separate data that showed that the composite PMIs rose in both Germany and France. Markit said that weakness outside the core was the key driver, but we have to wait for the final data to see the full story.

25 Aug 2020 August Flash PMIs Suggest Abe's Second Wave Gamble has Paid Off (Publication Centre)

Japan's advance PMI numbers for August suggest that the economy dodged most of the bullets fired by the second wave of Covid-19.

24 Sept. 2015 PMIs Point to Stable and Strong Eurozone GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

PMI data yesterday provided some relief to anxious investors, despite a modest drop in the headline. The composite PMI in the Eurozone fell to 53.9 in September from 54.3 in August, driven by slight falls in both manufacturing and services. Assuming no major changes to the advance September reading--usually a fair bet--the PMI rose marginally in Q3, pointing to a continuation of the cyclical recovery.

25 Jan. 2016 PMIs Point to Stable GDP Growth, Despite Disappointing Dip (Publication Centre)

Advance PMI data indicate a slow start to the first quarter for the Eurozone economy. The composite index fell to 53.5 in January from 54.3 in December, due to weakness in both services and manufacturing. The correlation between month-to-month changes in the PMI and MSCI EU ex-UK is a decent 0.4, and we can't rule out the ide a that the horrible equity market performance has dented sentiment. The sudden swoon in markets, however, has also led to fears of an imminent recession. But it would be a major overreaction to extrapolate three weeks' worth of price action in equities to the real economy.

25 July 2017 The July PMIs Provide a Dose of Reality on the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMIs kicked off a busy week for Eurozone data on a downbeat note. The composite EZ PMI fell to a five-month low of 55.8 in July, from 56.3 in June; it was constrained by a 0.6 point dip in the manufacturing index to 56.8.

25 July. 2016 Should We Believe the Downbeat PMI? (Publication Centre)

Last week's news that the composite PMI collapsed to 47.7 in July--its lowest level since April 2009--from 52.4 in June is the first clear indication that the U.K. is heading for a recession.

24 Sept 2020 PMIs Confirm Japan's Q3 Bounce, but Momentum will Fade in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Japan's economic recovery got back on track this month--just--according to yesterday's flash PMI numbers.

24 Sept 2019 Ugly EZ PMIs in September, but Don't Hit the Panic Button Yet (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI data were an open goal for those with a bearish outlook on the euro area economy.

24 Nov. 2015 Bullish PMI Survey Won't Prevent Further ECB Stimulus (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI reports repeated the message of a firm cyclical Eurozone recovery, despite investors' angst over deflation and the underwhelming Q3 GDP data earlier this month. The composite index in the zone rose to a 54-month high of 54.4 in November from 53.9 in October, lifted by strong output and solid new business growth. Our first chart shows the rise in the PMI points to slight upside risks in Q4 to the four quarter trend in real GDP growth of 0.4% per quarter.

24 November. 2016 EZ PMIs Rise Further in November- The Outlook is Good for Q4 GDP (Publication Centre)

The PMIs are telling an increasingly upbeat story for the EZ economy in Q4. The composite PMI in the euro area rose to an 11-month high of 54.1 in November, from 53.3 in October. The uptick was driven by strong new business growth across all private sectors, and employment also increased in response to higher work backlogs.

24 Oct 2019 Which Fork in the Road Will the PM Take? (Publication Centre)

The PM now is at a fork in the road and will have to decide in the coming days whether to risk all and seek a general election, or restart the process of trying to get the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--through parliament.

24 October 2017 Which to Believe, the Markit PMI or the ISM Survey? (Publication Centre)

A startlingly wide gap has emerged over the past nine months between the ISM manufacturing index and Markit's manufacturing PMI.

3 Sept 2019 Don't Rely on the Manufacturing PMI for an Accurate Read in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The fall in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI to 47.4 in August--its lowest level since July 2012--from 48.0 in July suggests that pre-Brexit stockpiling isn't countering the hit to demand from Brexit uncertainty and the global industrial slowdown.

3 September 2018 China's PMIs Point to Tariff Pain, and Only Minimal PPI Inflation Slowdown (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs were little changed in August, with the manufacturing gauge up trivially to 51.3, from 51.2 in July and the non-manufacturing gauge up to 54.2, from 54.0.

6 February 2018 The PMIs Show Brexit Risks are Continuing to Dampen Growth (Publication Centre)

The latest PMIs suggest that investors have jumped the gun in pricing-in a 50% chance of the MPC raising interest rates again as soon as May.

6 Feb 2020 The PMIs Point to Stronger GDP Growth in Q1 than the MPC Expects (Publication Centre)

The post-election run of upbeat business surveys was extended yesterday, with the release of the final Markit/CIPS services PMI for January.

6 July 2020 The EZ PMIs are Still Improving, but that Doesn't Tell us Much (Publication Centre)

Friday's final June PMI data confirmed the survey's recovery through Q2. The composite index edged higher to 48.5, from 31.9 in May, extending its rebound from a low of just 13.6 in April.

6 June 2017 May Services PMI Dents Second Quarter Rebound Hopes (Publication Centre)

The fall in the services PMI to 53.8 in May, from 55.8 in April, is a setback for hopes that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 will be fleeting. Both business activity and orders rose at their slowest rates since February.

6 June 2018. The Caixin PMI Belies the Struggle in Finance and Real Estate (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the Caixin services PMI was unremarkable in May, unchanged at 52.9.

6 Feb 2020 Suddenly, the Composite PMI in the EZ Rose Slightly in January (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final PMI data in the Eurozone were better than we expected.

6 December. 2016 PMI Data Signal a Solid End to 2016 for the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

The final EZ PMI data for November yesterday confirmed that the composite index in the Eurozone rose to an 11-month high of 53.9, from 53.3 in October. The key driver was an improvement in services, boosted by stronger data in all the major economies. Manufacturing activity also improved, though, and the details showed that new business growth was robust in both sectors.

6 August 2018 China's PMIs Point to a Loss of Momentum in Q3 (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs point to softening activity in Q3. The Caixin services PMI fell to 52.8 in July, from 53.9 in June.

6 Aug 2020 Strong EZ PMIs and Retail Sales Overstate the Economy's Strength (Publication Centre)

Judging solely by yesterday's PMI and retail sales data, the EZ economy has shaken off the virus and is going from strength to strength.

6 December 2018 November's Services PMI Bolsters our Below-Consensus Q4 GDP Call (Publication Centre)

The slump in the Markit/CIPS services PMI in November to its lowest level since July 2016 provides the clearest indication yet that uncertainty about Brexit has driven the economy virtually to a stand-still.

6 December 2018 Take China's Services PMI with Enough Salt to Alarm your Doctor (Publication Centre)

The Caixin services PMI leapt to an eyebrow- raising 53.8 in November, from 50.8 in October.

6 December 2018 The PMIs are No Fun EZ Growth is Slowing, and Italy is in Recession (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final PMI data in the euro area for November broadly confirmed the initial estimates.

6 June 2019 The PMIs Still Aren't Weak Enough to Justify Rate Cut Speculation (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, markets' newfound view that the MPC's next move is more likely to be a rate cut than a hike was supported by May's Markit/CIPS PMIs.

6 March 2017 PMIs Signal Stronger EZ Growth, but Will the Hard Data Follow? (Publication Centre)

Survey data continue to suggest that GDP growth will accelerate in Q1. The final PMI reports on Friday showed that the headline EZ composite index rose to 56.0 in February, from 54.4 in January, in line with the first estimate.

EZ Datanote: Germany Factory Orders, EZ PMIs, and Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid EZ retail sales and German new orders; and upward revisions to the PMIs.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boeing constrains Chicago PMI: Consumers happier, for now.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly services PMIs in Spain and Italy, but they should recover next month.

8 Oct 2019 Mexico PMIs, Business Capex, and Hiring are Weakening Rapidly (Publication Centre)

September PMI surveys in Mexico continued to bolster our argument for a subpar recovery in the second half of the year.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: A setback, but the composite PMI rose over Q3 as a whole.

6 September. 2016 German Services PMI Taints an Otherwise Strong Day for EZ Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ PMI data surprised to the downside. The composite PMI in the euro area dipped to 52.9 in August, from 53.2 in July, below the initial estimate 53.3. The headline was marred by weakness in the German services PMI, which crashed to a 40-month low of 51.7, from 54.4 in July.

6 September 2018 Does the Caixin Services PMI Pick up Activity Missing from GDP (Publication Centre)

The Caixin services PMI fell to 51.5 in August, from 52.8 in July.

6 March 2019 The EZ PMIs Showed Further Signs of Resilience in February (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final PMI data for February confirmed the story from the advance reports.

6 March 2019 We're Still Not Buying the PMIs' No Growth Message (Publication Centre)

The small rise in the Markit/CIPS services PMI to 51.3 in February, from 50.1 in January, came as a relief yesterday.

6 November 2018 Chinese PMIs Show the Economy o to a Weak Start in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Caixin services PMI data complete the set for October.

6 Oct 2020 Mexico's PMIs are Improving, but the Near-Term Outlook Remains Bleak (Publication Centre)

The September PMI surveys in Mexico continue to bolster our argument for a subpar recovery in the second half of the year.

6 Aug 2019 The PMIs Are Consistent With a Fragile--Not Flatlining--Economy (Publication Centre)

The rise in the Markit/CIPS services PMI to a nine-month high of 51.4 in July, from 50.2 in June, isn't a game-changer, though it does provide some reassurance that the economy isn't on a downward spiral.

6 April 2017 GDP Growth Likely Slowed in Q1, Despite The Rising Services PMI (Publication Centre)

The rise in Markit/CIPS services PMI to 55.0 in March, from 53.3 in February, brings some relief that GDP growth has not stalled in Q1, following manufacturing and construction surveys that signalled near-stagnation.

4 January 2017 Brazil's PMI Lost Momentum in Q4, but Should Stabilize Soon (Publication Centre)

Brazil's manufacturing PMI edged down to a six-month low of 45.2 in December, from 46.2 in November. This marks a disappointing end to Q4, following a steady upward trend during the first half of the year, as shown in our first chart. December's new work index fell to 45.2 from 47.7 in November, driving a slowdown in production, purchases of materials, and employment. The new export orders index also deteriorated sharply in December, falling close to its lowest level since mid-2009.

4 February 2019 Unboxing--and Making Sense--of the Collapse in China's Caixin PMI (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI for January was grim, indicating that China's start to the year wasn't as benign as the official surveys suggested.

4 July 2017 Why Hasn't EZ Industrial Output Responded to the PMIs? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI data confirmed that the EZ manufacturing sector is in rude health. The manufacturing PMI in the euro area rose to a cyclical high of 57.4 in June, from 57.0 in May, slightly above the first estimate. New orders and output growth are robust, pushing work backlogs higher and helping to sustain employment growth.

4 July 2019 Japan's Services PMI Holds up, is the Sector Really so Resilient? (Publication Centre)

We were surprised to see Japan's services PMI edging up to 51.9 in June, from 51.7 in May. We attributed apparent service sector resilience in April and May to the abnormally long holiday this year.

4 June 2019 The Official PMI has it Right Tariff hit has Derailed China's Trade Recovery (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI was steady in May, at 50.2, in contrast to the official gauge published on Friday, which dropped to 49.5, from April's 50.2.

4 December 2018 Manufacturing Still Treading Water, Despite the Slightly Stronger PMI (Publication Centre)

The recovery in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI to 53.1 in November, from 51.1 in October, propelled it well above the consensus, and the equivalent reading for the Eurozone, 51.8, for only the second time in the last 19 months.

4 Dec. 2015 How Reliable is the Composite PMI as an Indicator of GDP Growth? (Publication Centre)

A further rise in the business activity index of the November Markit/CIPS report on services offset declines in the manufacturing and construction surveys' key balances. The composite PMI--a weighted average of three survey's activity indices -- therefore rose, to a level consistent with quarter-on-quarter GDP growth strengthening to 0.6% in the fourth quarter, from 0.5% in Q3. Nonetheless, we do not think this is a convincing signal that the economic recovery is regaining strength.

30 January 2019 A Mixed Bag of PMI Readings in China won't Put Off Fresh Stimulus (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs for January, due out tomorrow, will give the first indications of how the economy started the year.

30 January 2018 China's January PMIs Should be Stable but then Drop in February (Publication Centre)

The Caixin PMI likely remained stable or even strengthened in January. The December jump was driven by the forward-looking components, with both the new export orders and total new orders indices picking up.

30 June. 2015 Slowing Aircraft Orders Holding Back Chicago PMI - No Hit to ISM (Publication Centre)

The seasonal adjustment problems which tend to drive up the national ISM manufacturing survey in late spring and summer are more or less absent from the Chicago PMI, which will be released today. As far as we can tell, the biggest short-term influence on the Chicago number is variations in the order flow for Boeing aircraft; the company moved its headquarters to the city from Seattle in 2001.

30 May 2019 China's Manufacturing PMIs will Give the First Hint of Trade War Hit (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI for May, out tomorrow, will give the first indication of the coming hit from the resumption of its tariff war with the U.S.

4 August. 2016 The PMIs Highlight the MPC's Policy Dilemma (Publication Centre)

The final July PMIs indicate that the post-referendum slump in activity has been even worse than the flash estimates originally implied. The manufacturing PMI was revised down to 48.2, from the 49.1 flash reading, while the services PMI was unrevised at 47.4, its lowest level since March 2009.

4 May 2018 Weak PMIs Mean Even a "Hawkish Hold" is Off the MPC's Table (Publication Centre)

The failure of the Markit/CIPS services PMI to rebound fully in April, following its fall in March, provides more evidence that the economy is in the midst of an underlying slowdown.

4 Nov. 2015 Today's PMIs Will Send a Signal o f a Continuing Cyclical Recovery (Publication Centre)

Final October PMI data today will confirm the Eurozone's recovery remains on track. We think the composite PMI rose to 54.0 from 53.6 in September, in line with the consensus and initial estimate. Data on Monday showed that manufacturing performed better than expected in October, and the composite index likely will enjoy a further boost from solid services. The PMIs currently point to a trend in GDP growth of 0.4%-to-0.5% quarter-on-quarter, the strongest performance since the last recession.

5 July 2018 Beware Inferring Too Much From June's Slightly Stronger PMIs (Publication Centre)

The pick-up in the Markit/CIPS services PMI to an eight-month high of 55.1 in June, from 54.0 in May, has provided another boost to expectations that the MPC will raise Bank Rate at its next meeting on August 2.

5 January 2018 Time to Talk Chinese New Year Already, Ignore the PMI Jumps (Publication Centre)

The Caixin services PMI jumped sharply to 53.9 in December from 51.9 in November. All the PMIs picked up significantly, but we find this hard to believe and suspect seasonality is to blame, though the adjustment is tricky.

5 October 2017 The PMIs Show Economic Growth Momentum Still Fading (Publication Centre)

The latest PMIs indicate that the economy remained listless in Q3, undermining the case for a rate rise before the end of this year. The business activity index of the Markit/CIPS services survey rose trivially to 53.6 in September, from 53.2 in August.

5 September 2017 Services PMI set to Show Economy Still Struggling in Q3 (Publication Centre)

August's Markit/CIPS services survey, released today, likely will show that the economy's biggest sector is continuing to slow. We think that the PMI fell to just 53.0--its lowest level since it plunged immediately after the Brexit vote--from 53.8 in July, below the consensus, 53.5.

6 Apr 2020 The Eurozone PMIs are Breaking Records, and Not for the Better (Publication Centre)

Friday's final PMI data for March were even more terrifying than the advance numbers. The composite index in the euro area collapsed to 29.7, from 51.6 in February, lower than the consensus 31.4. A downward revision was coming.

5 December 2017 The PMI Signals Construction has Stabilised, but Won't Recover Soon (Publication Centre)

November's Markit/CIPS construction report brings hope that the sector no longer is contracting. The PMI increased to a five-month high of 53.1 in November from 50.8 in October, exceeding the 52-mark that in practice has separated expansion from contraction.

4 September 2018 EZ Manufacturing PMIs are Soft, but Base Effects will Lift Q3 data (Publication Centre)

Survey data in EZ manufacturing remain soft. Yesterday's final PMI report for August confirmed that the index dipped to 54.6 in August, from 55.1 in July, reaching its lowest point since the end of 2016.

4 Oct 2019 We're Still Not Buying the PMIs' Recession Message (Publication Centre)

We continue to distrust the suggestion from the Markit/CIPS PMIs that the economy is in recession.

4 October 2018 September's PMIs are Consistent with Slow Growth and MPC Inaction (Publication Centre)

September's Markit/CIPS PMIs indicate that the economy still is stuck in a low gear.

4 Sep 2020 Did the PMIs Just Put the Recovery in the Euro Area On Notice (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final PMI data for August confirmed that the composite index in the EZ fell to 51.9, from 54.9 in July, slightly higher than the first estimate, 51.6.

4 September 2018 Asian PMIs Signal Trade Spat Damage, Korean Uptick is Transitory (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.6 in August, from July's 50.8. This clashed with the increase in the official PMI, though the moves in both indexes were modest.

23 February 2017 The IFO Agrees with the PMI: German GDP Growth to Rise in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German IFO survey broadly confirmed the bullish message from the PMIs earlier this week. The headline business climate index rose to 111.0 in February from a revised 109.9 in January, boosted by increases in both the current assessment and the expectations index.

25 October. 2016 Encouraging rebound in October EZ PMIs (Publication Centre)

PMI data in the Eurozone rebounded convincingly in October, as the composite index rose to a 10-month high of 53.7, from 52.6 in September. The gain fully reversed the weakness at the end of Q3.

1 March 2019 China's Latest PMIs Give no Reason for Hope Trade Partners Beware (Publication Centre)

Chinese data still are in the midst of Lunar New Year-related noise, so take February's PMIs with a pinch of salt, even though they ostensibly are adjusted for seasonal effects.

1 March 2018 China PMIs Trend Down but the February Dip is an Overshoot (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs surprised the consensus forecasts to the downside for February. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.3 in February from 51.3 in January, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 54.4 from 55.3 in January.

2 October 2018 PMIs Show China is Slowing Risks of a Government Overreaction (Publication Centre)

China's September PMIs, most of which were released over the weekend, mark out a clear downtrend in activity since late last year.

2 Oct 2020 EZ Manufacturing is Stretching its Legs, According to the PMIs (Publication Centre)

Judging by the PMIs, the euro area's industrial sector is now stretching its legs.

1 May 2018 China's Manufacturing PMI Points to Reflation Revival Temporarily (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI implies a modest gain in momentum in Q2, at 51.4, compared with 51.0 on average in Q1.

2 September. 2016 The Manufacturing PMI Overstates the Sector's Recuperation (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the rebound in the manufacturing PMI, to 53.3 in August from 48.3 in July, directly challenges our view that the economy is set to slow sharply over the coming quarters. A close look at the survey, however, suggests that the manufacturing PMI exaggerates the extent of the sector's recovery in August.

1 February 2018 China PMIs Distorted by Holiday E ects, Missing the Curbs Impact (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs have softened in Q4. Indeed, we think the indices understate the slowdown in real GDP growth in Q4, as anti-pollution curbs were implemented. More positively, though, real GDP growth should rebound in Q1 as these measures are loosened.

22 February 2017 PMI Data in the Eurozone Signal a Strengthening Economy (Publication Centre)

Our view that EZ survey data would take a step back in February was severely challenged by yesterday's PMI reports. The composite index in the Eurozone rose to 56.0 in February, from 54.4 in January, lifted by a jump in the services index and a small rise in the manufacturing index.

22 February 2019 This Month's PMI Headline: Weak Manufacturing, Strong Services (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's February PMI data sent a clear message to markets.

06 Jan. 2016 The Services PMI isn't the Final Word on the Economy's Health (Publication Centre)

Unanticipated movements in the Markit/CIPS services PMI often provoke big market reactions, despite its shortcomings as an indicator of the pace of growth. We suspect December's PMI, released today, could surprise to the downside, reversing most of its rise in November to 55.9 from 54.9 in October. Regardless, we place more weight on the official data, which is more comprehensive and shows clearly the recovery is slowing.

21 Feb 2020 Buckle Up, Today's Eurozone PMIs Will Move Markets, We Think (Publication Centre)

Today's advance EZ PMIs will be watched more closely than usual.

21 Feb 2020 A Bad Weather Hit to February's Composite PMI (Publication Centre)

We expect the flash reading of Markit's composite PMI, released today, to print at 52.4 in February, below the consensus, 52.8, and January's final reading, 53.3, albeit still in line with last month's flash.

1 May 2019 No Reason to Panic a Correction in China's PMIs was Coming (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Chinese PMI numbers disappointed forecasts across the board, failing to meet widespread expectations for either stability or a continued, albeit marginal, improvement in April.

2 June 2017 PMIs Signal a Strong Q2 for the EZ Manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final May manufacturing PMIs confirmed that the EZ industrial sector is in fine form. The PMI for the euro area was unchanged at a cyclical high of 57.0 in May, in line with the initial estimate.

23 Feb. 2016 PMIs Suggest Risks to Q1 EZ GDP Growth are Tilted to the Downside (Publication Centre)

Advance PMI data yesterday supported our suspicion that Q1 economic survey data will paint a picture of slowing growth in the Eurozone economy. The composite PMI in the Eurozone fell to a 13-month low of 52.7 in February from 53.6 in January, driven by declines in both the French and German advance data.

12 May 2020 India's PMIs Show Lockdown Severity, but New Flexibility will Help (Publication Centre)

India's shocking PMIs for April leave little doubt that the second quarter will be bad enough to result in a full-year contraction in 2020 GDP, even if economic activity recovers strongly in the second half.

15 Jan 2020 Will the Composite PMI Rise Enough to Keep the MPC on Hold? (Publication Centre)

Members of the Monetary Policy Committee have signalled that January's flash Markit/CIPS composite PMI, released on Friday 24, will have a major bearing on their policy decision the following week.

17 Dec 2019 The MPC won't Dwell on December's Weak Flash PMIs (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, December's flash Markit/CIPS PMIs warrant the MPC cutting Bank Rate at its meeting on Thursday.

17 Dec 2019 The EZ PMIs Point to Another Subpar Quarter for the EZ in Q4 (Publication Centre)

We're sticking to our call that the Eurozone PMIs have bottomed, though we concede that the picture so far is more one of stabilisation than an outright rebound.

2 April 2019 China's March PMIs Rebounded, but are they a False Dawn (Publication Centre)

The bulk of China's PMIs were published over the weekend and yesterday, leaving only the Caixin services PMI on Wednesday.

1 September. 2016 The Case for a Bounce-Back in the PMIs is Unconvincing (Publication Centre)

The Markit/CIPS PMIs for August, slated for release over the next three business days, will be closely watched. They have provided the most resounding indication, so far, that Britain is heading for a recession. In July, the composite PMI--comprised of the manufacturing and services indices--fell to 47.5, from 52.4 in June, its biggest month-to-month fall since records began in 1998.

1 May 2020 China's Benign Manufacturing PMI Masks Worrying Underlying Trends (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.8 in April, from 52.0 in March. The output sub- index stayed relatively high, inching down only to 53.7 from 54.1, and chiming with our initial take on the industrial production data for March.

1 November 2017 Will the PMIs Show the Economy Resilient to the Looming Rate Hike? (Publication Centre)

This week's manufacturing, construction and services PMIs for October will demonstrate how well the economy is coping with the prospect of higher interest rates.

2 January 2018 BoJ: Chinese Profit Story Deteriorates Amid Surprisingly Robust PMIs (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs paint a picture of robust momentum going into 2018 but we find this difficult to reconcile with the other data.

2 Jan 2020 China's PMIs Highlight Weakening Non-manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 50.2 in December, marking a weak end to the year. But it could have been worse; we had been worried that the return to above-50 territory in November had been boosted by temporary factors. December's print allays some of those fears.

22 Jan 2020 The Outlook for the Q1 PMI Data Suddenly Looks Great (Publication Centre)

Investor sentiment data still indicate that EZ PMIs are set for a significant rebound at start of the year.

2 March 2018 China's Caixin PMI Holds Steady, Despite Negative Calendar Effects (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI posted a surprise, albeit trivial, increase in February, to 51.6 up from 51.5 in January.

02 Mar. 2016 The Manufacturing PMI Shows that the U.K.'s Slowdown is Homegrown (Publication Centre)

Further compelling signs that the U.K. has lost its status as one of the fastest growing advanced economies were presented by the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey, released yesterday. The PMI fell in February to 50.8--its lowest level since April 2013--from 52.9 in January.

23 Aug 2019 Further Evidence of Resilience in the Eurozone PMI Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's August PMI data in the euro area ran counter to the otherwise gloomy signals from the ZEW and Sentix investor sentiment indices.

23 August. 2016 EZ PMIs to Signal Stable GDP Growth in the Third Quarter (Publication Centre)

Today's market attention will be focused on the advance August PMI data in the major EZ economies. We think the composite PMI in the euro area was unchanged at 53.2 in August, consistent with stable GDP growth of 0.3%-to-0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3. The signal of "stability" in the Eurozone business cycle has been consistently relayed by the PMI since the beginning of the year.

23 Aug 2019 Japan's Services PMI Spike Points to a Punchy Q3... Before Q4 Payback (Publication Centre)

Japan's flash PMI numbers for August were a mixed bag.

22 May. 2015 Solid EZ PMI, but Weak German Manufacturing is Worrying (Publication Centre)

The composite PMI in the Eurozone continues to edge slightly lower, falling to 53.4 in May from 53.9 in April. A fall in the services index to 53.3, from 54.1 last month offset a modest increase in manufacturing to 52.3 from 52.0 in April.

04 Mar. 2016 Solid Services Activity Continues to Limit the Slide in the PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final February PMI data were slightly stronger than expected, due to upbeat services data. The composite PMI in the Eurozone fell to 53.0, a bit above the initial 52.7 estimate, from 53.6 in January. The PMI likely will dip slightly in Q1 on average, compared to Q4, but it continues to indicate stable GDP growth of about 0.3%-to-0.4% quarter-on-quarter.

22 May 2020 Don't Over-Interpret the May PMIs, a Slow Rebound is Underway (Publication Centre)

It seems that yesterday's PMI data left investors and analysts more confused than enlightened.

Asia Datanote Manufacturing PMIs, China, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery in Q3 GDP, confirmed.

ASIA Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, March, China (Publication Centre)

In one line: Caixin suggests March was as bad as February... that's bad

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: No sign of recovery, but other regional surveys are less bad.

Asia Datanote: Flash PMIs, Japan, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: A devastating services report, but we see light at the end of the tunnel in manufacturing

UK Datanote U.K. Flash PMIs, October 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery has lost its legs; the risk of a relapse over the winter is high.

Asia Datanote: China official PMIs, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: A supply-demand mismatch

UK Datanote U.K. Flash PMIs, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slowing; Eurozone data suggest stagnation is to come.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still excessively depressed by political uncertainty.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong enough for the MPC to keep rates on hold next week.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Record low level signals a very deep recession.

Asia Datanote Jibun Bank PMIs, Japan, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A slow start to Q3.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with falling GDP, though it has been too downbeat repeatedly this year.

Asia Datanote Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Private manufacturers continue to play catch-up

Asia Datanote Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Delayed recovery of private manufacturers suggests upside risks to Q3.

Asia Datanote Jibun Bank PMIs, Japan, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A two-tiered economic recovery is emerging

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid progress, though the last miles of this marathon recovery will be the hardest.

UK Datanote U.K. Flash PMIs, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Activity is rebounding, but employment still is falling rapidly.

Asia Datanote Manufacturing PMI, China, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Powering through Beijing's partial lockdown

Asia Datanote Manufacturing PMI, China, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Living on borrowed time.

Asia Datanote Jibun Bank PMIs, Japan, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery is on track--just--with the second wave receding.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Reassuringly solid, given virus and weather headwinds.

Asia Datanote: Manufacturing PMIs, China, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still skating on thin ice

US Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boeing, probably.

EZ Datanote Advance PMIs, France, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery is stalling.

EZ Datanote Advance PMIs, France, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Conditions for a slow, but sustained, recovery are in place.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, but still weak.

PM Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still dormant, despite the Brexit delay.

EZ Datanote Advance PMIs, Germany, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: That's better.

EZ Datanote Advance PMIs, Germany, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slightly underwhelming given the solid headline in France.

EZ Datanote Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rebound in manufacturing confirmed.

EZ Datanote EZ Manufacturing PMIs and German unemployment 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rebound in manufacturing confirmed; is the worst over in Germany's labour market?

EZ Datanote Advance PMIs, Germany, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weak services, soaring manufacturing.

US Datanote: U.S. Markit PMIs, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Awful, especially in services, with worse to come.

U.S. Datanote: Chicago PMI, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Much better, but still soft, and downside risks ahead.

EZ Datanote Advance PMIs, France, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Back to reality; is the rebound petering out?

U.S. Datanote: Chicago PMI, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible.

U.S. Datanote: Chicago PMI, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Likely bottoming, but no real recovery in sight.

7 January 2019 The Downbeat PMIs Should be Trusted This Time Around (Publication Centre)

Evidence that mounting concerns about Brexit have caused the economy to slow to a near-halt continued to accumulate last week.

Asia Datanote: Jibun Bank PMIs, October, Japan 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The rebound is losing momentum.

ASIA Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, March, China (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consensus-beating print merely underscores how bad February was; the economy isn't out of the woods

EZ Datanote Advance PMIs, Eurozone, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: An inevitable setback, but little room for further weakness.

EZ Datanote Advance PMIs, Eurozone, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: No recovery in sight as long as the virus is spreading.

EZ Datanote Advance PMIs, Eurozone, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The slow rebound continues.

U.S. Datanote: Chicago PMI, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim; trade war and Boeing woes to blame.

U.S. Datanote: Chicago PMI, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boeing's woes and trade are hurting.

UK Datanote U.K. Flash PMIs, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A jobless recovery can only go so far.

6 September 2017 August's PMIs Show the Economy is too Brittle to Handle a Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

Our conviction that the economy continues to grow at a snail's pace increased yesterday following the release of August's Markit/CIPS services survey.

26 November 2018 An Amber Alert Warning from the Eurozone PMIs in November (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic reports delivered more sobering news for the euro area economy.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, May, Final 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A long way from normal, but moving in the right direction.

25 Nov. 2015 IFO Repeats Message from PMIs: German Economy is in Good Form (Publication Centre)

Survey data in Germany continue to tell an upbeat story on the economy. The IFO business climate index rose to 109.0 in November from 108.2 in October, lifted by gains in both the expectations and current assessment indexes. The IFO tends to be slightly over-optimistic on GDP growth, but our first chart shows that the survey points to upside risks in the fourth quarter.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, November, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Destocking is driving the renewed slowdown.

29 Jan 2020 Fed on Hold, Awaiting Macro or Virus Developments, IOER to Rise (Publication Centre)

The Fed will do nothing to the funds rate or its balance sheet expansion program today.

29 Jan 2020 Will PM Johnson Double Down or Dither on Brexit this Year? (Publication Centre)

The real Boris Johnson will have to stand up this year.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, June, Final 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery will lose momentum before long.

4 April 2019 The Economy is Struggling, but not to the Extent Implied by the PMIs (Publication Centre)

All the main surveys of business activity in Q1 now have been released and they present a uniformly downbeat picture.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, March, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Understating the slump in production now underway.

3 Mar 2020 China's PMIs Mean Our GDP Downgrades are the Right Call (Publication Centre)

Last week we made a big call and further downgraded our China GDP forecasts for Q1; daily data and survey evidence suggested that our initial take, though grim, had not been grim enough.

25 July 2018 The PMIs are Probably Telling the True Story on the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first batch of Q3 survey data in the Eurozone suggest that economic growth eased further, albeit it slightly, at the start of the quarter.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, September, Final 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Output is nearly back to pre-Covid levels, but it will slip back once backlogs have been cleared.

24 May 2018 No Relief to Markets from the Eurozone PMIs in May (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data in the Eurozone did little to calm investors' nerves amid rising political uncertainty in Italy and tremors in emerging markets.

24 June 2020 Don't Fixate on the PMI Remaining Below 50, GDP is Rebounding (Publication Centre)

Both business surveys and unconventional activity indicators suggest that the recovery from the Covid-19 shock has sped up in June, after a shaky start in May.

24 Feb 2020 PMIs Point to Above-Trend Growth, Despite Virus and Weather Headwinds (Publication Centre)

The flash readings of the Markit/CIPS surveys in February provide reassurance that GDP is on track to rebound in Q1, despite disruption to the global economy caused by the COVID-19 outbreak and bad weather in the U.K. this month.

23 Oct 2019 Take the PM's Threat of a General Election Seriously (Publication Centre)

As we write, the Commons appears to be on the verge of voting for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--at its second reading but then voting against the government's "Programme Motion", which sets out a very tight timetable for its passage through parliament, in a bid to meet the October 31 deadline and to minimise parliamentary scrutiny.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Wild.

23 Jan 2020 The CBI's Survey is Another Positive Sign for the PMI, at the Margin (Publication Centre)

Further evidence that the general election has transformed business confidence emerged yesterday, in the form of January's CBI Industrial Trends survey.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, September and Chicago PMI, 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Payrolls still rising, but perhaps not for much longer.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Could have been worse. Will be worse

22 Oct 2019 Even if the PM Prevails Today, a No- Confidence Vote Could Force a Delay (Publication Centre)

Sterling briefly touched $1.30 yesterday, in response to signs that a very small majority in the Commons stands ready to vote for an unamended version of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB-- on Tuesday.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible, but could have been worse.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A startling catch-up.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, January, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: A glimmer of light between the storm clouds.

12 March 2019 PM Set for Defeat, Whether Today's Vote is "Conditional" or Not (Publication Centre)

Mrs. May looks set to lose the second "meaningful vote" on the Withdrawal Agreement-- WA--today, whether she decides on a straightforward vote or one asking MPs to b ack it if some hypothetical concessions are achieved.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, December, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Year-end struggles should give way to stabilisation in Q1.

5 Sept 2019 The PMIs Recession Signal is Misleading, GDP Will Rise in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Recession fears were fanned yesterday by the renewed deterioration of the Markit/CIPS services survey.

5 December 2016 Mexico's PMIs Fell in November, Q4 GDP Outlook is Poor (Publication Centre)

The MXN came under pressure last week as news broke that Banxico Governor Agustin Carstens plans to resign next year. Mr. Carstens has led the bank since 2010; during his term, Banxico cut interest rates to record low levels and managed to keep inflation under control.

1 Oct 2020 Is Q3 as Good as it Gets for China's Manufacturing PMIs (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturers ended the third quarter on a fairly strong note.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, April, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: An unprecedented collapse.

6 September 2017 Chinese Service PMI Still Stable but Glosses Over Subsector Divergence (Publication Centre)

The services sector in China is notoriously difficult to track, with the major aggregate statistics published only on a quarterly or even annual basis.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The manufacturing upturn appears to have peaked, for now.

6 November 2018 Should the PMIs' Gloomy Prognosis be Trusted This Time? (Publication Centre)

October's Markit/CIPS services survey added to evidence that the economy has started Q4 on a very weak footing.

6 February 2018 No Change in the Bullish Message From the Eurozone PMI Data (Publication Centre)

Real M1 growth is slowing, and financial conditions are beginning to tighten in the Eurozone, but shortleading indicators continue to signal firm momentum in the economy.

13 December 2018 Assuming the PM Wins, the Path to a Softer Brexit Will Become Clearer (Publication Centre)

After seemingly endless speculation, the confidence vote in Theresa May's leadership of the Conservative party finally has been triggered following the submission of at least 48 letters by disgruntled MPs to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee.

13 June 2019 Fiscal Pledges of PM Contenders Highlight Upside Risks to the Outlook (Publication Centre)

We often hear that the large gap between the slowing rising path for interest rates anticipated by the MPC and the flat profile expected by markets is justified because markets have to price-in all of the downside risks to the economic outlook posed by Brexit.

2 February 2018 Caixin PMI will Fall in February, Though Activity will Strengthen (Publication Centre)

Holiday effects are tedious and you are going to hear us talking about them until the March data come through.

21 Jan. 2015 Welcome Gain in ZEW, but Still Not Confirmed by IFO or PMIs (Publication Centre)

Investor sentiment in the Eurozone showed further signs of recovery yesterday. The ZEW expectations index rose strongly to 48.4 in January from 34.9 in December, and the leap since the trough in October ranks among the strongest rebounds ever recorded in the index.

22 February 2018 Hold The Press: We Have a Downbeat Eurozone PMI Report (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data presented Eurozone investors with an unfamiliar sight; a big downside surprise in the survey data.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, February, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Supply chain disruptions to depress output in the spring.

4 December 2017 No End in Sight to Upturn in EZ Manufacturing PMI? (Publication Centre)

The upside to manufacturing survey data in the Eurozone appears endless.

4 Sep 2020 The Recovery in Chinese Services is Very Uneven, the Punchy PMI Aside (Publication Centre)

China's services sector continues to do most of the heavy lifting for the economy's recovery this quarter, judging by the survey data.

15 March 2019 Attempts by the PM to Revive Her Brexit Deal will Fail Again (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister is threatening to bring back her Brexit deal to the Commons for a third time before March 20, in a final bid to win over the rebels within the Tory party who want a harder Brexit.

PM Datanote: Trade Balance, France, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Q1 net trade hit confirmed; a rebound in Q2?

16 Sept 2020 ZEW and Sentix Point to a Leap in the EZ PMIs, We don't Buy it (Publication Centre)

Market-based sentiment indicators in the Eurozone are becoming increasingly detached from the reality of the threat of resurgent Covid-19 and the danger this poses to the strength of the economic recovery.

19 Feb 2020 Investor Sentiment Data Signal a Hit to the PMIs, or Do They (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German ZEW investor sentiment survey provided the first clear evidence of the coronavirus in the EZ survey data.

7 Jan 2020 Emerging Signs of a "Boris Bounce" in December's Services PMI (Publication Centre)

Hopes that GDP growth will strengthen following the general election, which has eliminated near- term threats of a no-deal Brexit and a business- hostile Labour government, were bolstered yesterday by the release of December's Markit/ CIPS services survey.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Welcome to the house of horror.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Promising, but a coronavirus hit looms in the next few months.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly, but not nearly bad enough to tell the true story on the ground.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but old news.

Global Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rebound in manufacturing confirmed.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bad finish to a bad year.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty; downside risks remain for industrial production in Q2.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A slow rebound has begun.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A rebound, and from a better level than elsewhere in the EZ.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, March 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly, but not nearly bad enough to tell the true story on the ground.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weak services, soaring manufacturing.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still grim, but the rate of contraction is easing.

Global Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Every bit as terrible as feared.

Global Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, March 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly, but not nearly bad enough to tell the true story on the ground.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Small rebound confirmed, but still overall weak.

Global Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, EZ, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, but the balance between new orders and inventories isn't pretty.

Global Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: All the hallmarks of a strengthening cyclical recovery.

Global Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly, but everyone is looking ahead to the rebound.

Global Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Decent headline, worrying details.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recession all but confirmed; over to you Berlin.

EZ Datanote: Business Confidence and Advance PMIs, France, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, but still consistent with decent GDP growth.

EZ Datanote: Final June Manufacturing PMIs, Money Supply, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim manufacturing, mixed money supply data.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Every bit as terrible as feared.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still weak, but a few signs of improvement.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMI and Sentix, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still miserable in EZ manufacturing, but an impressive jump in the Sentix.

Global Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A slow rebound has begun.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slightly underwhelming given the solid headline in France.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: That's better.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stability; thanks to solid services.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, but also resilient overall.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Horrid, hideous, harrowing...you get the picture.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: A stable headline with resilience in services and depressed manufacturing

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better than expected.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Services are now buckling; will it halt the recovery?

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Sentiment and Advance PMIs, France, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not bad at all.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, March 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The Covid-19 depression has arrived; how long will it last?

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A slow rebound is underway.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The slow rebound continues.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: An inevitable setback, but little room for further weakness.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Welcome to the house of horror.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Services were improving before the Covid-19 outbreak.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: No recovery in sight as long as the virus is spreading.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly, but everyone is looking ahead to the rebound.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery is stalling.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty, but short-time work schemes are preventing some permanent layoffs.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs and German Unemployment May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The EZ economy is slowly rebounding; has the rate of increase in German jobless claims peaked?

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: All the hallmarks of a strengthening cyclical recovery.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: An altogether more positive picture.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: EZ services are still holding up.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Back to reality; is the rebound petering out?

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Conditions for a slow, but sustained, recovery are in place.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, March 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible.

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still grim, but the second derivative is turning.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: The new sick man of Europe.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still ugly.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stabilisation complete; now an upturn?

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Covid-19 finally hits EZ consumer sentiment; worse is to come.

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Activity is rebounding, but employment still is falling rapidly.

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid progress, though the last miles of this marathon recovery will be the hardest.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft; strength in France and Germany offset by weakness elsewhere.

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, January 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong enough for the MPC to keep rates on hold next week.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A slow rebound is underway.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: No relief at the start of Q4.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Amber alert.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sinking without a trace, but still not recessionary.

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft average inflation targeting is here.

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, February 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Reassuringly solid, given virus and weather headwinds.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid headlines, but can we trust them?

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stuck in neutral.

EZ Datanote Final PMIs, Eurozone, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Decent headline, worrying details.

EZ Datanote Final PMIs, Eurozone, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: It's a V, but not a real one.

EZ Datanote Final Manufacturing PMIs, EZ, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, but the balance between new orders and inventories isn't pretty.

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, October 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Outright CPI deflation is inevitable.

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slowing; Eurozone data suggest stagnation is to come.

EZ Datanote Final PMIs, Eurozone, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: That's Q2 done then; stabilisation slightly above 50 in Q3?

EZ Datanote: Advance EZ PMIs and IFO, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stabilisation at best; details remain depressing reading.

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, March 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Record low level signals a very deep recession.

Global Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't take the sub-50 reading literally; output likely is recovering in May, albeit sluggishly.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Settling.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs & INSEE Sentiment, France (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sobering, but probably not market-moving.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: The French economy is bucking the trend, to the upside.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid; manufacturing index likely hit by pension reform strikes.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spared complete embarrassment by resilient services.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great headlines, but the details paint a more negative picture.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weak, but not recessionary.

Global Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, March 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Horrid, hideous, harrowing...you get the picture.

Global Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Services are now buckling; will it halt the recovery?

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: The road to recovery begins; we hope.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly; manufacturing is sinking without a trace.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim; manufacturing enjoyed another "boost" from a tighter supply side.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A rebound, and from a better level than elsewhere in the EZ.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing still looks terrible, but the remaining headlines are decent.

Global Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: It's a V, but not a real one.

Global Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: That's Q2 done then; stabilisation slightly above 50 in Q3?

Global Datanote: Jibun Bank PMIs, Japan, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery is on track--just--with the second wave receding.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty, but short-time work schemes are preventing some permanent layoffs.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still grim, but the second derivative is turning.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Robust, but not a reliable indicator for GDP growth.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, but decent overall.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Saved by robust services.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still holding up better than the rest.

Global Datanote: PM Datanote: Consumer Prices, Japan, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: "Go To Travel" discounts cancel the non-core price lift.

Global Datanote: Jibun Bank PMIs, October, Japan 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The rebound is losing momentum.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still grim in manufacturing, but services look ok.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: A strong rebound from the September swoon.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMIs, China, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery in Q3 GDP, confirmed.

PM Datanote: Inflation, Chile, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation still little source of concern.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't take the sub-50 reading literally; output likely is recovering in May, albeit sluggishly.

27 Oct 2020 Controlling the Virus will Cost EZ Q4 GDP Growth Dearly (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, yesterday's IFO in Germany confirmed the main message from last week's PMIs.

28 Apr. 2016 Global Risks Gone, but the Fed is Still Relaxed About Inflation Risk (Publication Centre)

The disappearance from the FOMC statement of any reference to global risks, which first appeared back in September, was both surprising and, in the context of this cautious Fed, quite bold. After all, one bad month in global markets or a reversal of the jump in the latest Chinese PMI surveys presumably would force the Fed quickly to reinstate the global get-out clause. So, why drop it now?

27 August. 2015 Mr. Praet's Dovish Comments Don't Signal Easing Next Week (Publication Centre)

ECB board member Peter Praet fired the first shot across the markets' bow yesterday following this week's turmoil. Speaking to journalists in Germany, Mr. Praet noted "increased downside risk of achieving a sustainable inflation path towards 2%," and assured investors the current QE program is fully flexible, and can be readily adjusted in response to an adverse development in inflation expectations. We don't think, though, this is a pre -cursor for additional easing at next week's ECB meeting.

26 September 2018 Brazil's External Accounts Will Remain Resilient the BRL Will Help (Publication Centre)

Brazilian financial assets lately appear to be responding only to developments in the presidential election race and external jitters.

26 September 2017 Japanese Manufacturing Regaining Momentum on External Demand (Publication Centre)

Mr. Abe yesterday called a snap general election, to be held on October 22nd; more on this in tomorrow's Monitor. For now, note that the election comes at a reasonably good stage of the economic cycle, hot on the heels of very rapid GDP growth in Q2, while the PMIs indicate that the economy remained healthy in Q3.

28 Jan 2020 Germany Can't Catch a Break, The IFO Still Signals Very Slow Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO data reversed the good vibes sent by last week's upbeat German PMIs.

28 March 2017 Could a Rebounding Eurozone Prevent a U.K. Slowdown? (Publication Centre)

Business surveys coming out of the Eurozone have been remarkably strong recently. The composite PMI for the Eurozone jumped to 56.7 in March--its highest level since April 2011--from 56.1 in February. Germany's IFO business climate index leaped to a 67-month high in March.

3 January 2018 Strong Growth in Manufacturing Output Won't be Sustained in 2018 (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector appears to have finished 2017 on a strong note. The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI fell to 56.3 in December from 58.2 in November, but it remained above its 12-month average, 55.9.

3 January 2018 See no Evil, Hear no Evil in Eurozone Manufacturing? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone manufacturing sector finished 2017 on a strong note. The headline PMI increased to a cyclical high of 60.6 in December, from 60.1 in November, in line with the initial estimate.

3 Feb 2020 China's January Survey Data Imply Weakness before the Virus Hit (Publication Centre)

The official PMIs suggest that the January survey data have escaped the worst of the hit from the virus.

3 Aug 2020 A Second Wave of Covid-19 and a Rally in EURUSD, What Gives (Publication Centre)

The two main developments in the EZ economy while we were away seem contradictory.

26 September 2017 Another Marginal Dip in the IFO, and Murky Politics in Germany (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey in Germany sent a marginally more downbeat message than the strong PMIs last week. The IFO business climate index fell to 115.2 in September, from 115.9 in August, its second straight monthly dip.

26 June 2017 Japan Surprises on the Upside as the Economy Accelerates into Q2 (Publication Centre)

Japanese data continue to come in strongly for the second quarter. The manufacturing PMI points to continued sturdy growth, despite the headline index dipping to 52.0 in June from 53.1 in May. The average for Q2 overall was 52.6, almost unchanged from Q1's 52.8, signalling that manufacturing output growth has maintained its recent rate of growth.

25 Apr. 2016 Stable, but Weak, Cyclical Upturn to Continue in the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Last week's advance PMI data suggest that economic activity in the Eurozone was stable at the beginning of Q2. The composite EZ PMI fell trivially to 53.0 in April, from 53.1 in March, because a dip in manufacturing offset a small rise in the services index.

25 April 2018 A Warning From the IFO (Publication Centre)

The April IFO business sentiment survey increased the degree of uncertainty over the German economy, following stabilisation in the PMIs earlier this week.

25 Apr. 2016 Brazil is Still Struggling, But Recent Data Are Encouraging (Publication Centre)

Financial market performance and economic survey data on the Brazilian economy have been better than many investors and commentators feared this year. The composite PMI has improved gradually since November last year, consumer sentiment has stabilized, and national business surveys have been less bleak.

24 Sept 2020 The EZ Recovery is Now Seriously Threatened by the Virus' Return (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance EZ PMI data for September conformed to our expectations.

24 May 2019 A Little bit of Everything in the May EZ Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of survey data were a mixed bag. The composite EZ PMI edged higher in May to 51.6, from 51.5 in April, but the details were less upbeat, and also slightly confusing.

25 January 2017 The EZ Economy is Performing Strongly, But Inflation is Picking Up (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy is in fine shape, according to the latest PMI data. The composite EZ PMI fell trivially to 54.3 in January, but remains strong. A marginal dip in the services index offset a small increase in the manufacturing PMI to a cyclical high of 55.1. These data tell a story of a strong private sector that continues to support GDP growth.

25 July. 2016 EZ Sentiment Looks Resilient in the Face of Brexit...For Now (Publication Centre)

Friday's July PMI reports presented investors with a rather confusing story. The composite PMI in the Eurozone fell trivially to 52.9 in July, from 53.1 in June, despite rising PMIs in Germany and France. The final data on 3 August will give the full story, but Markit noted that private sector growth outside the core slowed to its weakest pace since December 2014.

25 March 2019 Dark Clouds over Manufacturing in the EZ, but Services are Stable (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, the key message from the Eurozone PMIs was little changed on Friday.

25 Mar. 2015 China's slowdown a threat to U.S. Industry even when ISM revives (Publication Centre)

We have argued over the past couple of years that if you want to know what's likely to happen to U.S. manufacturing over the next few months, you should look at China's PMI, rather than the domestic ISM survey, which is beset by huge seasonal adjustment problems.

25 Mar 2020 Surveys Confirm the Services Meltdown, Industry Better, for Now (Publication Centre)

The huge drop in the March Markit services PMI, reported yesterday, and the modest dip in the manufacturing index, are the first national business survey data to capture the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak.

25 Mar 2020 EZ Recession Confirmed, but how Long will the Slump Last (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's March PMIs confirmed that governments' actions to contain the Covid-19 outbreak dealt a hammer blow to the economy at the end of Q1.

3 June 2019 China's Faltering "Recovery" will Keep its Trade Negotiators Engaged (Publication Centre)

The sharp fall in China's manufacturing PMI in May makes clear that its recovery is nowhere near secured.

3 Mar 2020 Covid-19 is Both a Supply and Demand Shock to the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs confirmed that all remained calm in the EZ industrial sector through February.

4 July 2019 Investors are Seeing Carney's Comments Through a Dovish Prism (Publication Centre)

Investors have concluded from June's Markit/CIPS PMIs and Governor Carney's speech on Tuesday that the chance of the MPC cutting Bank Rate before the end of this year now is about 50%, rising to 55% by the time of Mr. Carney's final meeting at the end of January.

4 June 2019 Dark Clouds Still Linger Over Manufacturing in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The most positive thing to say about the EZ manufacturing PMI at the moment is that it has stopped falling.

4 January 2019 No Need to Lower 2019 Economic Forecasts for Equity Market Drama (Publication Centre)

The 15% fall in the FTSE 100 since its May 2018 peak undoubtedly is an unwelcome development for the economy, but past experience suggests we shouldn't rush to revise down our forecasts for GDP growth.

4 January 2017 December's ISM looks great, but it's not definitive (Publication Centre)

It probably would be wise to view the increase in the ISM manufacturing index in December with a degree of skepticism. The index is supposed to record only hard activity, but we can't help but wonder if some of the euphoria evident in surveys of consumers' sentiment has leaked into responses to the ISM. That said, the jump in the key new orders index-- which tends to lead the other components--looked to be overdue, relative to the strength of the import component of China's PMI.

4 Feb. 2015 Divergent Manufacturing Stories in LatAm's Biggest Economies (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing indexes for January showed a small improvement for the biggest economies in LatAm: Brazil and Mexico. In Brazil, the PMI manufacturing index increased marginally to 50.7 in December from 50.2 in November, thanks to stronger output and new orders components, which rose together for the first time in ten months.

4 May. The MPC Won't Cut Rates to Alleviate the Manufacturing Slump (Publication Centre)

The nosedive in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI in April provides an early sign that GDP growth is likely to slow even further in the second quarter. The MPC, however, looks set to keep its powder dry. We continue to think that the next move in interest rates will be up, towards the end of this year.

4 November. 2016 Markets Stress in LatAm Increases as Fed and U.S. Election Loom (Publication Centre)

LatAm markets and central banks have been paying close attention to developments in the U.S. The FOMC left rates on hold on Wednesday, as expected, but underscored its core view that inflation will rise in the medium-term, requiring gradual increases in the fed funds rate.

5 February 2019 Where is the Evidence of a Pick-up in China's Household Sector (Publication Centre)

The Caixin services PMI ticked down to 53.6 in January, from 53.9 in December.

5 Dec 2019 Would the Conservatives Really Run a Tight Fiscal Ship? (Publication Centre)

Over the summer, both Chancellor Javid and PM Johnson appeared to be repositioning the Conservatives, claiming that the era of austerity was over and that higher levels of spending and investment were justified.

5 Dec 2019 Growth in EZ Services Activity is Slowing, but Not Crashing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data showed that the euro area PMIs were a bit stronger than initially estimated in November.

5 April 2017 The Construction Sector Will Continue to Tread Water (Publication Centre)

Evidence that the U.K. economy has slowed significantly this year is starting to come in thick and fast. Following the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI on Monday --which signalled that growth in production declined in March to its lowest rate since July--the construction PMI dropped to 52.2 in March, from 52.5 in February.

4 Aug 2020 EZ Manufacturing is Growing Again, from a Very Low Base (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final EZ manufacturing PMIs for July extended the run of gains since the nadir during lockdown.

4 April 2019 Japan's Services Survey Data Overstate Q1 Strength (Publication Centre)

Japan's services PMI edged down to 52.0 in March, from 52.3 in February, taking the Q1 average to 52.0, minimally up from Q4's 51.9.

3 October 2017 EZ Manufacturing is Helping to Propel the Cyclical Upturn (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in the Eurozone remained a strong driver of GDP growth in the third quarter. The headline EZ manufacturing PMI rose to 58.1 in September, from 57.4 in August, only a tenth below the initial estimate 58.2.

3 October 2017 Manufacturing Powers Ahead, Supported by External Demand (Publication Centre)

The Asian PMIs point to a strengthening manufacturing sector in September but external demand is the driver.

3 November 2017 The EZ Manufacturing Sector is in No Mood for a Slowdown (Publication Centre)

Survey data signal that Eurozone manufacturing retained momentum at the start of Q4. Yesterday's final PMI reports showed that the EZ manufacturing index rose to 58.5 in October from 58.1 in September, trivially below the first estimate.

3 May 2019 Inventories Could Spoil the Party for the EZ Economy in Q2 and Q3 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in the Eurozone are still suffering, but yesterday's final PMI data for April offered a few bright spots.

3 Mar. 2015 Weak Euro Boosts Orders for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

Industrial companies in the Eurozone are still struggling with low growth, but the outlook is stabilising following the near-recession late last year. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 51.0 in February, trivially lower than the initial estimate of 51.1.

3 Sept 2019 Still Mostly Bad News in the Eurozone Manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final EZ manufacturing PMIs for August provided little in the way of relief for the beleaguered industrial sector.

3 Sept 2019 China's Policymakers Hold Their Breath as Recovery Takes its Time (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs show no sign of a recovery yet, but the authorities are sticking to the playbook; they've done the bulk of the stimulus and are waiting for the effects to kick in, but are recognising that they need to make some adjustments.

4 April 2018 More soft economic data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Economic data in the Eurozone continue to come in soft. Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs confirmed that the euro area index slipped to an eight-month low of 56.6 in March, from 58.6 in February.

4 April 2017 Sterling's Depreciation is a Mixed Blessing for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

The latest Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey has dashed hopes that sterling's depreciation and the pickup in global trade will facilitate strong growth in U.K. production this year. The PMI dropped to 54.2 in March, from 54.6 in February.

30 September. 2016 August Spending is Less Worrying than the Scope for Higher In ation (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's relatively good news--we discuss the implications of the August trade data below--will be followed by rather more mixed reports today. We hope to see a partial rebound, at least, in the September Chicago PMI, but we fully expect soft August consumer spending data.

30 Nov. 2015 Capex to Rebound--Modestly--as the Oil Hit Is Overtaken (Publication Centre)

Capex data by industry are available only on an annual basis, with a very long lag, so we can't directly observe the impact the collapse in the oil sector has had on total equipment spending. But we can make the simple observation that orders for non-defense capital goods were rising strongly and quite steadily-- allowing for the considerable noise in the data--from mid-2013 through mid-2014, before crashing by 9% between their September peak and the February low. It cannot be a coincidence that this followed a 55% plunge in oil prices.

24 March 2017 Boeing Likely Boosted February Orders,Oil Lifting the Core Trend (Publication Centre)

The nominal value of orders for non-defense capital equipment, excluding aircraft, fell by 3.4% last year. This was less terrible than 2015, when orders plunged by 8.4%, but both years were grim when compared to the average 7.5% increase over the previous five years.

24 June 2020 Japan's Economy is Stabilising at a Very Low Level, No V-Shapes Here (Publication Centre)

The Jibun Bank services PMI for Japan saw a heftier increase in June, to 42.3, from 26.5 in May, signalling a substantial easing of the industry's downturn.

13 February 2017 Can French Investment Maintain Momentum in 2017? (Publication Centre)

French manufacturing cooled at the end of 2016. Industrial production slipped 0.9% month-to-month in December, partially reversing an upwardly revised 2.4% jump in November. The main hits came from declines in oil refining and manufacturing of cars and other transport equipment.

13 Nov 2019 Japan's Pending Stimulus Marks a Return to the Bad Old Days (Publication Centre)

PM Abe last week asked the cabinet to put together a package of measures in a 15-month budget aimed at bolstering GDP growth through productivity enhancement, in addition to the shorter-term goal of disaster recovery.

12 November 2018 Further Downgrades to 2018 EZ GDP Growth are on their Way (Publication Centre)

The economic data were mixed while we were away. The final PMI data showed that the composite PMI in the euro area fell to 53.1 in October, from 54.1 in September, somewhat better than the initial estimate, 52.7.

11 June 2018 Production and Labour Market Data will Hit Rate Hike Odds (Publication Centre)

The resolution of tensions in Italy and aboveconsensus U.K. PMIs for May last week persuaded investors that the MPC likely will press on and raise interest rates soon.

10 October 2017 China's Services Sector Losing Momentum as Consumers Flag (Publication Centre)

We wrote last month about how the Caixin services PMI appeared to be missing the deterioration in several key services subsectors.

14 December 2017 The ECB Will Deliver a Carbon Copy of its October Meeting Today (Publication Centre)

Car registrations, French inflation, advance PMIs and a central bank meeting make up today's substantial menu for investors in the euro area.

15 January 2019 Mexican Capex Improved Slightly in Early Q4, but Uncertainty is a Drag (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday showed that gross fixed investment in Mexico started Q4 on a decent note, increasing on the back of healthy purchases of imported machinery and equipment and construction spending.

2 April 2019 Brace for a Pull-Back in Manufacturing Output in Q2 (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, British manufacturers are weathering the global slowdown well. The Markit/CIPS PMI jumped to 55.1 in March, from 52.1 in February, and now comfortably exceeds those for the Eurozone, U.S. and Japan.

18 Oct 2019 MPs Are Set to Reject the New Brexit Deal, An Election Still is Imminent (Publication Centre)

PM Johnson has conceded considerable ground over the terms of Brexit for Northern Ireland in order to get a deal over the line in time for MPs to vote on it on Saturday, before the Benn Act requires him to seek an extension.

16 February 2017 Slowdown in Wage Growth Further Reduces 2017 Rate Hike Chances (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's labour market data delivered a further blow to hopes that consumers' spending will retain enough momentum for the MPC to press ahead and raise interest rates this year. The most striking development is the decline in year-over-year growth in average weekly wages to just 1.9% in December, from 2.9% in November.

16 December 2016 The Eurozone Manufacturing Sector is Picking up Momentum (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's euro area PMI data continue to tell a story of a firm business cycle upturn. The composite PMI was unchanged at 53.9 in December; an increase in the manufacturing index offset a decline in the services PMI.

1 Sep 2020 Chinese Manufacturing is Peaking, While Services are Still Catching-up (Publication Centre)

The momentum in Chinese manufacturing waned in August, with the official manufacturing PMI slipping marginally to 51.0, from 51.1 in July,

1 Oct 2019 The Trouble with China's Private Sector Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs have diverged in the last couple of months.

05 October. 2016 Construction Still Set to Struggle, Despite the Looser Fiscal Stance (Publication Centre)

Promises of new money to facilitate construction on public sector land from the Chancellor and the pick-up in the construction PMI have fostered optimism that the sector's downturn is over.

07 Jan. 2016 Solid EZ Economic Data Amid Rising Volatility in Equity Markets (Publication Centre)

Increased volatility has given equity investors a torrid start to the year, but economic reports have been strong, and yesterday's PMIs were no exception. The composite index in the Eurozone rose marginally to 54.3 in December from 54.2 in November, slightly higher than the initial estimate of 54.0. This is consistent with a continuing cyclical recovery, and real GDP growth of 0.4%-to-0.5% in Q4, modestly higher than the 0.3% rise in the third quarter.

04 October. 2016 EZ Manufacturing Continues to Punch Above its Weight (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's survey data tell a story of resilient manufacturing in the Eurozone. The headline EZ PMI rose to 52.6 in September, from 51.7 in August, lifted by a rise in new orders to a three-month high.

04 Mar. 2016 Will the MPC Cut Rates to Counteract the Slowdown? (Publication Centre)

The chances of a cut in official interest rates were boosted yesterday by the sharp fall in the business activity index of the Markit/CIPS report on services in February, to its weakest level since April 2013. Its decline, to just 52.8 from 55.6 in January, mirrored falls in the manufacturing and construction PMIs earlier in the week and pushed the weighted average of the three survey's main balances down to a level consistent with quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of just 0.2% in Q1.

04 August. 2015 Stable Manufacturing in the EZ, but Slowing China is a Risk (Publication Centre)

Eurozone manufacturing is showing signs of stabilisation. Final PMI data showed the headline gauge falling trivially to 52.4 in July from 52.5 in June, slightly above the initial estimate of 52.2. New orders slowed, though, with companies reporting weakness in export business amid firm domestic demand.

08 May. 2015 Brazil's Weak Growth Not Sufficient to Stop the Tightening Process (Publication Centre)

This week's hard data confirmed the bleak situation of Brazil's industrial sector, signalled over the last few months by key leading indicators such as the PMI manufacturing and the CNI business confidence surveys. March industrial production fell by 0.8% month-to-month and 3.5% year-over-year, following a downwardly-revised 9.4% contraction in February.

1 Apr 2020 Hold Your Horses... A V-Shaped Recovery in China isn't Secured, Yet (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs for March surprised well to the upside, cheering markets across Asia.

1 March 2017 The Soaring Trade Deficit is set to Constrain First Quarter Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's wall of data told us a bit about where the economy likely is going, and a bit about how it started the first quarter. The January trade and inventory data were disappointing, but the February Chicago PMI and consumer confidence reports were positive.

1 July 2020 It's Official... Risks of Covid Clusters Don't Jeopardise China's Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's economy looks to have shrugged off the supposed "second wave" of Covid-19, sparked by a cluster in Beijing's largest wholesale market for fruit and veg, looking at June's PMIs.

1 February 2019 It's Official China will Enter PPI Deflation, Though Only Briefly (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI was little changed in January, ticking up to 49.5, from 49.4 in December, with the output and new orders sub-indices largely stable.

1 August 2017 Chinese Second Half Looking Increasingly Stagflationary (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI, published on Monday, implies the industrial complex has maintained momentum going into Q3. The official manufacturing PMI moderated slightly to 51.4 in July from 51.7 in June. The July reading was unchanged from the average in Q2 and only modestly down from the 51.6 in Q1.

2 April 2019 Manufacturing Might have Hit Bottom, but Don't Celebrate Yet (Publication Centre)

We were happy to see the small increase in the March ISM manufacturing index yesterday, following better news from China's PMIs, but none of these reports constitute definitive evidence that the manufacturing slowdown is over.

2 August 2017 Inflation to Erode Chinese Demand in the Second Half (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI rebounded to 51.1 in July from 50.4 in June, soundly beating the consensus for no change. The PMIs are seasonally adjusted but the data are much less volatile on our adjustment model. On our adjustment, the headline has averaged 50.9 so far this year, modestly higher than in the second half of last year.

23 Mar. 2016 Welcome March Rebound in Eurozone Economic Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Economic sentiment data, which rebounded in March, continue to suggest slight downside risk to EZ GDP growth in Q1. The composite Eurozone PMI in March rose modestly to 53.7 from 53.0 in February, only partially erasing the weakness in recent months. The PMI dipped slightly over the quarter as a whole, although not enough to change the EZ GDP forecast in a statistically meaningful way.

23 October 2018 Business Surveys have Flattened Richmond Fed due to Correct (Publication Centre)

All the regional PMIs and Fed business surveys are volatile in the short-term, so observations for single months need to be viewed with due skepticism.

23 July 2020 Japan was off to a Slow Start in Q3, as Second Wave Risks Linger (Publication Centre)

Japan's flash Jibun Bank PMIs for July showed continued improvement, but only just.

23 February 2018 IFO and INSEE Business Surveys Compound February Misery (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national surveys in the EZ confirmed the downbeat message from the PMIs and consumer sentiment data earlier this week.

23 Apr. 2015 Cyclical recovery in the Eurozone will likely moderate in Q2, slightly (Publication Centre)

The preliminary April PMIs due today will provide the first economic sentiment data for Q2, and likely will point to a continuation of the cyclical recovery. We think the composite PMI was unchanged at 54.0 in April, driven by a small gain in manufacturing offset by a slight decline in services.

23 Sept 2019 Could a Tweaked Brexit Deal get Through the Commons? (Publication Centre)

Sterling rallied to $1.25 last week--its highest level against the dollar since Boris Johnson became PM in mid-July--amid growing speculation that a Brexit deal still was possible in the next couple of weeks, enabling the U.K. to leave the E.U. on October 31.

23 Sept. 2015 Slow Growth in China is a Risk, but Not the Whole Story in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Expectations that the ECB will respond to weakening growth in China with Additional stimulus mean that survey data will be under particular scrutiny this week. The consensus thinks the Chinese manufacturing PMI--released overnight--will remain weak, but advance PMIs in the Eurozone should confirm that the cyclical recovery remained firm in Q3. We think the composite PMI edged slightly lower to 54.0 in September from 54.3 in August, consistent with real GDP growth of about 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3.

24 January 2017 EZ Economic Data Will Struggle to Live Up to Expectations in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Consensus forecasts expect further gains in this week's key EZ business surveys, but the data will struggle to live up to expectations. The headline EZ PMIs, the IFO in Germany, and French manufacturing sentiment have increased almost uninterruptedly since August, and we think the consensus is getting ahead of itself expecting further gains. Our first chart shows that macroeconomic surprise indices in the euro area have jumped to levels which usually have been followed by mean-reversion.

24 Apr. 2015 Cyclical recovery remains on track in the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

The preliminary April PMIs point to a continuation of the cyclical bounce, despite falling slightly from last month. The composite PMI in the Eurozone fell to 53.5 in April, down from 54.0 in March.

24 Apr 2020 The EZ Economy Fell Flat on its Face in April, Now What? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI data in the euro area were a horror show. The composite EZ index cratered to 13.5 in April, from 29.7 in March, dragged down by a collapse in the services index to 11.7, from 26.4 last month.

23 September 2016 French Manufacturing Confidence Rebounds Solidly in September (Publication Centre)

French manufacturers recovered their optimism towards the end of Q3. The headline INSEE manufacturing sentiment index rose to 103 in September, from 101 in August, and the composite business confidence gauge also increased. A rebound in transport equipment firms' own production expectations was the key driver of the recovery.

21 June 2019 Financial Markets in the Eurozone are now in Bizarro-World (Publication Centre)

Swoons in EZ investor sentiment are not always reliable leading indicators for the economic surveys, but it is fair to say that risks for today's advance PMIs are tilted to the downside, following the dreadful Sentix and ZEW headlines earlier this month.

21 February 2019 Will the Real Story in French Services Please Stand Up (Publication Centre)

Today's data dump will deliver the advance PMIs and the French INSEE business sentiment indices for February, all of which will be examined closely for signs of stabilisation in the wake of recent evidence that EZ growth is slowing quicker than markets and the ECB have been expecting.

2 February 2018 Is it Time to Tell a More Balanced Story on EZ Manufacturing? (Publication Centre)

We struggle to find much wrong with the near-term outlook for Eurozone manufacturing. The headline PMI fell marginally to 59.6 in January, from 60.6 in December, but it continues to signal robust growth at the start of the year.

2 December. 2016 Sterling's Depreciation Has Not Been a Boon for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

The deterioration of the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey in November should temper optimism about the potential benefits of sterling's depreciation. The PMI fell to 53.4 in November, from 54.2 in October.

2 Dec. 2014 - Eurozone Manufacturing Sector Unlikely to Recover in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The PMI survey continues to send a downbeat message on growth in the euro area despite signs of improvement in other sentiment data: The final manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone fell to 50.1 in November from 50.6 in October.

2 August. 2016 EZ Manufacturing Was Resilient in July, But Only Thanks to Germany (Publication Centre)

Industrial sector activity in the euro area was broadly stable at the beginning of the third quarter, despite the headline dip in the July manufacturing PMI. The Eurozone index fell to 52.0 in July, from 52.8 in June, but if it holds at this level it will be unchanged in Q3 compared with the second quarter.

2 February 2018 The Best Days of the Manufacturing Sector's Revival Lie in the Past (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector appears to have started the new year on a weaker note. The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI dropped to 55.3 in January--its lowest level since June--from 56.2 in December.

2 July. 2015 Slow, but Steady, Recovery for Private Investment in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The PMI survey points to a slow, but steady improvement, in Eurozone manufacturing. The gauge rose marginally to 52.5 in June, up from 52.2 in May. This pushed the quarterly average in Q2 to 52.2, up from 51.1 in Q1. The survey is also telling a story of broad-based manufacturing strength in the two major peripheral economies, despite declines in June.

21 February 2017 Are EZ Survey Data Overestimating Momentum in the Economy? (Publication Centre)

We think this week's main economic surveys in the Eurozone will take a step back following a steady rise since the end of Q3. Today's composite PMI in the Eurozone likely slipped to 54.0 in February, from 54.4 in January, mainly due to a dip in the manufacturing component. Even if we're right about slightly weaker survey data in February, though, it is unlikely to change the story of a stable and solid cyclical expansion in the EZ.

2 September. 2016 German Manufacturing is Doing Well, but Others are Struggling (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final EZ PMIs imply that growth in manufacturing slowed marginally in August. The PMI fell to 51.7, from 52.0 in July, trivially below the initial estimate, 51.8. Output and new orders growth declined, pushing down the pace of new job growth. But we think the hard data for industrial production in Q3 as a whole will be decent.

2 Oct. 2015 Eurozone Manufacturing is Weak, and Will Likely Deteriorate in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Final PMI data in the Eurozone yesterday confirmed that manufacturing remains under pressure from global headwinds. The manufacturing PMI in the zone fell to 52.0 in September from 52.3 in August, in line with the initial estimate. A rare upside surprise in France was not enough to offset weakness in the other major economies, and the trend in private investment growth likely will stay subdued this year.

2 November 2017 China's "War on Pollution" will Take its Toll on GDP Growth in Q4-Q1 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 51.0 in October, continuing the sideways trend this year.

5 January 2018 Don't Forget the Upbeat Story in Eurozone Services (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final PMI data added to the evidence that the EZ economy was firing on all cylinders at the end of last year. The composite PMI in the euro area rose to an 11-year high of 58.5 in December, from 57.5 in November, in line with the initial estimate.

1 August. 2016 Negative Interest Rates Won't Be Part of the MPC's Policy Response (Publication Centre)

The collapse in business activity and consumer confidence since the referendum has sealed the deal on policy easing from the MPC on Thursday. The Committee has cut Bank Rate by 50 basis points when the composite PMI has been near July's level in the past, as our first chart shows.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Further weakness to come for Japan's manufacturing PMI. First services hit from the coronavirus is damning. Japan's all-industry activity index suggests the 2019 tax hike was as bad as 2014. A drop in food inflation was enough to offset lagged oil pressures in Japan's January CPI. Ignore the headline; the coronavirus is now hurting Korean exports.

7 Nov 2019 India Started Q4 Badly, Modi's RCEP Snub is Short-Sighted (Publication Centre)

India's PMIs for October were grim, indicating minimal carry-over of energy from the third quarter rebound.

7 July 2020 The Prospects for a Robust Q3 Rebound in India are Diminishing (Publication Centre)

India's services PMI for June underscores the half-hearted nature of Unlock 1.0, with the daily number of new cases of Covid-19 still rocketing.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs suggest the private sector is recovering ahead of SoEs. China's non-manufacturing PMI again masks construction/services cross currents. Japan's industrial production continues to languish. OK so now Japanese households are front-loading spending. Korean IP corrects from the bumper July; the momentum from the Q2 recovery is waning.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's PMI hit by renewed trade wars, while domestic demand shows signs of slowing. The fledgling recovery in Korean exports lost steam in June.

7 November. 2016 Is Sterling Now Back on a Sustained Recovery Path? (Publication Centre)

Upbeat PMIs, the MPC's abandonment of its easing bias and the High Court ruling that only a parliamentary vote--and not the Prime Minister--can trigger Article 50, all helped sterling to make up some lost ground last week.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's flash PMIs for August point to short-term gain and long-term pain. Construction is starting to show signs of peaking.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade balance should recover as domestic weakness sets in; Japan's manufacturing PMI undermines H2 recovery hopes; Japan's services PMI paints a damning picture of Q2; Korea's export recovery from the April low will be more gradual than the descent; A lot more downside left for PPI deflation in Korea before Q3 trough

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs confirm continued recovery in Q3 GDP. "Reopening stimulus" continues to drive China's non-manufacturing PMI. The lack of support for capex held back Japanese production in August. Retail sales in Japan shrug off the second wave and complete their near V-shaped recovery.

9 Sept. 2015 Cyclical Recovery in the Eurozone Goes from Strength to Strength (Publication Centre)

Final Q2 GDP data yesterday indicate the euro area economy was stronger than initially estimated in the first half of the year. Real GDP rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, slightly higher than the initial estimate of 0.3, following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase in Q1. Upward revisions to GDP in Italy were the key driver of the more upbeat growth picture. The revisions mean that annualised Eurozone growth is now estimated at 1.8% in the first six months of the year, up from the previous 1.4%, consistent with the bullish message from real M1 growth and the composite PMI.

8 March 2019 January's GDP Report to Reassure that Recession Risks Remain Low (Publication Centre)

The sharp 0.4% month-to-month fall in GDP in December and the slump in the Markit/CIPS PMIs towards 50 have created the impression the economy is on the cusp of recession.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI was poised for major disappointment... the trade war impact is clear. Don't be fooled by the relative stability of China's non-manufacturing PMI. Japan's March unemployment uptick was early; April was payback. Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's industrial production ticks up after extreme weakness; don't hold your breath for the recovery. Japan's consumers in poor shape, but maybe it's not that bad. The upswing in Korean industrial production likely to take a breather this month. The BoK holds firm, despite rising calls for a rate cut.

8 Sept 2020 The Momentum in Chinese Exports is Fading, but RMB Strength Won't (Publication Centre)

Chinese exporters ostensibly enjoyed another strong month in August, with shipments rising by 9.5% year-over-year, marking the biggest gain in about 18 months.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

China PMI chimes with our GDP downgrade last week. China's non-manufacturing PMI weakest on construction. Japan's MoF capex numbers point to Q4 GDP downgrade. Ignore the consensus-beating headline, Korean exports were abysmal in February, calendar effects aside. The virus now has infected Korea's PMI; expect business surveys to get a lot worse.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs remain in the downdraft

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Consensus-beating March PMI merely underscores how bad February was... the economy isn't out of the woods. The non-manufacturing bounce was broad-based, but construction led the way. Japan's job openings plunge shows the direction of travel for unemployment. Japan's retail sales suggest Q1 pain to be concentrated in March. Japan inc granted a last month of reprieve before the Covid-19 storm hits. Korean carmakers' sourcing woes largely to blame for February hit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs are not yet fully picking up the coronavirus; China's non-manufacturing PMI lifted by local government spending; not yet hit by the virus; Japan's job postings still suggest the unemployment rate is unsustainably low; Japan's national inflation has less far to fall than Tokyo's; The coronavirus will delay the return of Japanese retail sales to pre-tax hike levels; Investment goods drive Japan's IP rebound in December; no real support now for consumer goods production; December probably is as good as it will get for Korean industrial production, for now

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI highlights supply-demand mismatch. China's non-manufacturing PMI reveals struggling services and rebounding construction. Retail sales in Japan started to turn sour before the state of emergency, but the overall picture for Q1 isn't bad. The worst is yet to come for Japanese industrial production.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Caixin services PMI shows labour market worries before the virus hit

8 January 2019 Expect to See a Real but Lukewarm Q4 GDP Recovery in Japan (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Nikkei services PMI report completed Japan's set of surveys for the fourth quarter of 2018.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Non-core items drive Japan's CPI inflation higher, with energy also indirectly pushing up core inflation. Sino-U.S. Phase One trade deal gives Japan's manufacturing PMI a boost. Japan's services PMI levels look unsustainable.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage growth rebounded because August is not a bonus month. Japan's current account maintains stability as trade balance cross currents persist. China's services PMI report contains some positive details but we aren't convinced. The rebuilding of Korea's current account surplus will soon lose momentum.

ASIAN DATAWRAP 8 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus falls unexpectedly in April, thanks partly to a bump in imports. Japan's services PMI falls despite holiday boost. The BoJ remains in a holding pattern. Korea's current account surplus rose in March, but its overall downtrend remains intact.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Echoes of the global financial crisis and the 2011 tsunami in Japan's manufacturing PMI; Japan's services index tanks to a record low

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's PMI report bodes well for Q3, but points to headwinds thereafter. PPI deflation in Korea is unlikely to get worse than the August drop.

5 July 2018 EZ Services Activity is Solid, Despite Slowing a Bit in H1 2018 (Publication Centre)

Headline Eurozone PMI data have declined steadily since the beginning of the year, but the June numbers stopped the rot.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was due a correction. Korea's PMI closes out the year strong, chiming with December's punchy trade data.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 Jan 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin services PMI corrects from November's Singles' Day bump

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

Net trade and inventories cushion Korea's historic consumption collapse in Q1. Nasty Japan manufacturing readings, but we can extrapolate light at the end of the tunnel. A devastating services PMI report for Japan.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Non-core items outweigh government measures in Japan's October CPI. Ignore the minor rebound in Japan's manufacturing PMI; the trend remains very weak. The post-tax drop and rebound in Japan's services PMI isn't as sharp, but Q4 looks vulnerable to a painful GDP hit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Caixin services PMI was due a bounce

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Trade tensions weigh on Japan's PMI

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

The hit from oil prices has just started; CPI deflation is imminent in Korea. Korea's PMI descends further, but April could mark the low

8 January 2018 Japan's Services Sector will Pick Up in Q1, Wage Pressure Mounts (Publication Centre)

Japan's services sector PMI last week was disappointing.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin gauge still to register renewed tariff threat. Japan's Capex growth on borrowed time. Korean exports stumble in May, but Q2 is shaping up to be better than Q1. Korea's PMI for May highlights the still-huge downside risks facing exporters.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

PBoC rate cut still on the tame side but more is coming, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI yet to see virus damage, China's profits better than the headline suggests going into the coronavirus hit, Early signs of coronavirus damage in Korea's trade data, Surge in Korea's manufacturing PMI comes to a stop in January

6 September. 2016 Too Soon to Breathe a Sigh of Relief on Recession Risk (Publication Centre)

The improvement in the August services PMI has generated hyperbolic headlines suggesting the U.K. is on a tear despite the Brexit vote. Taken literally, however, the PMIs suggest that the revival in business activity in August only partially reversed July's decline. Meanwhile, the impact of sterling's sharp depreciation on the purchasing power of firms and consumers has only just begun to be felt.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Tankan reinforces our impression of a nasty Q2. China's manufacturing PMIs show why the authorities are eager for a trade deal. China's non-manufacturing sector holds steady for now. Korean exports disappointed in June, but this probably is as bad as it will get. Ignore Korea's volatile PMI readings... sentiment is improving gradually.

9 Sept 2019 Brexiteers Lost the Brexit Day Battle, But Will They Win the Election War (Publication Centre)

After last week's drama, the pace of political developments should slow down this week.

6 August 2018 July Surveys Point to Below-Trend GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The MPC's view that the economy likely will grow at an above-trend rate over the coming quarters was challenged immediately last week by the PMIs.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in China are skating on thin ice. Construction is still doing most of the heavy lifting for China's non-manufacturing index. MoF data suggest that Japan probably avoided a technical recession in Q1, just. Korean exports stabilise in May, but Q2 still looks like a lost cause. Korea's PMI continued to sink in May, with no clear signs of a turnaround in export orders.

6 December 2017 Manufacturing Productivity Rises in China at the Expense of Services (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin services PMI picked up further in November to 51.9 from October's 51.2, but the rebound is merely a correction to the overshoot in September, when the headline dropped sharply.

6 February 2019 Japan will be Hard Pressed to Maintain Above-Trend Growth in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Nikkei services PMI for Japan partly rebounded in January, to 51.6, after it fell sharply to 51.0 in December.

6 Oct. 2015 Stable GDP Growth in Q3, due to Firmer Consumers' Spending? (Publication Centre)

The PMI survey points to a slight loss of momentum in Eurozone growth towards the end of Q3. The composite index fell to 53.6 in September from 54.3 in August, trivially lower than the initial estimate of 53.9. This is not enough to move the needle on the survey's signal for Q3 GDP growth, though; our first chart shows it pointing to stable growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter.

6 Apr. Britain's Happy Period of Strong Growth and Low Inflation is Over (Publication Centre)

The latest PMIs have added to the weight of evidence that the economic recovery has lost momentum this year. The prevailing view in markets, however, that the Monetary Policy Committee is more likely to cut--rather than raise--interest rates this year continues to look misplaced because inflation pressure is building.

6 Apr. 2016 Is Non-Manufacturing Activity Past Its Cyclical Peak in the Eurozone? (Publication Centre)

The final Eurozone PMIs indicate that the cyclical recovery continued in Q1, but downside risks are rising. The composite index rose marginally to 53.0 in March, from 53.1 in February, below the initial estimate 53.7. Over the quarter as a whole, though, the index fell to 53.2 from 54.1 in Q4, indicating that economic momentum moderated in the first quarter.

5 Nov. 2015 More MPC Hawks Likely to Emerge Today, Despite Services Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The improvement in the Markit/CIPS services PMI in October was pretty limp, supporting our view here that the recovery is shifting into a lower gear. What's more, the poor productivity performance implied by the latest PMIs indicates that wage growth will fuel inflation soon. As a result, the Monetary Policy Committee--MPC--won't be able to wait long next year before raising interest rates. Indeed, we expect the minutes of this month's meeting, released today, to show that one more member of the nine-person MPC has joined Ian McCafferty in voting to hike rates.

5 May 2020 Covid Outbreak Over, but no Signs of a Turnaround in Korean Surveys (Publication Centre)

Korea's manufacturing PMI fell for a fourth straight month in April, dropping to 41.6, which is the lowest reading since January 2009.

5 October 2017 Consumers' Spending in the Eurozone Slowed in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone will rekindle the debate on hard versus soft data. The final composite PMI rose to 56.7 in September, from 55.7 in August, in line with the first estimate.

5 June 2020 Chinese Construction is Chugging Away, while Services are Subdued (Publication Centre)

China's official non-manufacturing PMI rose further in May, hitting a four-month high of 53.6.

5 October 2017 Japan's Domestic Demand Slowed in Q3 as Consumers Pulled Back (Publication Centre)

Japan's Nikkei services PMI dropped to 51.0 in September from 51.6 in August, continuing the downtrend since June. For Q3 as a whole, the headline averaged 51.5, down from 52.8 in Q2; that's a clear loss of momentum.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

PBoC holding still in the wake of Fed rate cut. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was due a bounce. Inflation in Korea will soon take another nosedive, due largely to unfavourable non-core base effects. Korea's export slump turned less bad in July. Korea's two main manufacturing surveys aren't talking to each other.

6 January 2017 Are Markets Complacent About the Chances of a 2017 Rate Hike? (Publication Centre)

Investors have treated the upbeat message of the Markit/CIPS PMIs this week with caution and continue to think that the chance that the MPC will raise interest rates this year is remote. Overnight index swap rates currently are pricing-in just a one-in-four chance of a 25 basis point increase in Bank Rate in 2017.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI edged up in July. Services in China are finally starting to feel the pinch. Korean IP looks poised for a stronger increase in July, notwithstanding Japan's export curbs.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Mar 2020 part 2 (Publication Centre)

China's retail sector is on its knees at best. China's IP data suggest that the horrendous PMIs underplayed the carnage. A damning FAI report... tertiary capex should rebound, but the hit to global demand will hold back the secondary industry. China's property market grounds to a halt in February. The Bank of Korea steps in with an emergency cut, despite falling new infections locally.

6 May. The MPC Won't Step in to Revive the Economy this Time (Publication Centre)

The latest U.K. PMIs were unambiguously dreadful. The manufacturing, construction and services PMIs all fell in April, and their weighted average points to quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP slowing to zero in Q2, from 0.4% in Q1. The U .K.'s composite PMI also undershot the Eurozone's for the second month this year.

6 Nov 2019 A Lukewarm Response from Firms to the New Brexit Deal (Publication Centre)

October's Markit/CIPS services survey suggests that the PM's new Brexit deal has had a lukewarm reception from firms.

6 Oct 2020 The Recovery Is Grinding to a Halt, in the face of the Second Wave (Publication Centre)

We don't take much reassurance from the upward revision to the business activity index of Markit's services PMI to 56.1, from the flash estimate, 55.1.

6 Oct 2020 More Evidence that the Strength of the EZ Recovery is Ebbing (Publication Centre)

The PMIs have had a hard time this year.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs turn less grim, but look unsupported, for now. China's non-manufacturing PMI receives a one-off singles day boost. Japan's capex data suggests Q3 upgrade. Net trade is shaping up to be a drag on Q4 GDP, as Korean exports remained weak in November. Korea's exit from deflation is complete, thanks largely to more favourable base effects. Korea's PMI jumps in November... and that's before the likely sentiment boost from normalising ties with Japan.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Judgement pending on Chinese industrial production. Chinese retail sales buoyed by inflation. Chinese FAI growth stable through Q4; local government spending better managed this year. China's housing market still not reached a bottom. Japan's tertiary index plunge is more tax hike than typhoon. Japan's PMIs underline damage from tax hike.

6 June 2017 The Spanish Economy is Punching Above its Weight. Can it Last? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final May PMI data in the Eurozone confirmed the strength of the cyclical upturn. The composite PMI was unchanged at 56.8, in line with the initial estimate.

6 July 2017 Sluggish Growth and Slowing Price Rises Undermine Rate Hike Case (Publication Centre)

Investors have stuck to their view that interest rates are just as likely to rise this year as not, despite the soft round of PMIs released this week.

6 July 2017 Chinese Service Sector Downtrend to Continue into the Second Half (Publication Centre)

China's service sector slowed again in June, with the Caixin PMI falling to 51.6 from 52.8 in May. The Q2 average of 52.0 was only minimally lower than the 52.6 in Q1.

9 February 2017 Is the Jump in Wholesale Inventories Sustainable? (Publication Centre)

Total real inventories rose at a $48.7B annualized rate in the fourth quarter, contributing 1.0 percentage points to headline GDP growth. Wholesale durable goods accounted for $34B of the aggregate increase, following startling 1.0% month-to-month nominal increases in both November and December. The November jump was lead by a 3.2% leap in the auto sector, but inventories rose sharply across a broad and diverse range of other durables, including lumber, professional equipment, electricals and miscellaneous.

6 July. 2016 The EZ Economy is at the Mercy of Rising Political Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data point to a sea of calm in the Eurozone economy. The composite PMI was unchanged at 53.1 in June, a slight upward revision from the initial estimate, 52.8. The index suggests real GDP growth was stable at 1.5%-to-1.6% year-overyear in Q2, though the quarter-on-quarter rate likely slowed markedly, following the jump in Q1.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's PMI had suggested an upside surprise, but now points firmly down

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Tankan points to a q/q contraction for capex in Q3, but GDP growth overall will stay strong. Japan's unemployment steady, but details bode ill for Q4. September's full-month data dispel some export worries in Korea; expect a Q3 lift from net trade. Korea's PMI pours cold water on the spectacular jobs report for August. September is as bad as it gets for Korean CPI deflation.

5 Nov 2019 No Relief for Manufacturing in the Eurozone at the Start of Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs for October were grim, but they told investors nothing they don't already know.

6 February 2018 China's Services PMI Overstates Growth in Q1 February to Correct (Publication Centre)

The jump in the Caixin services PMI in the past two months looks erratic, with holiday effects playing a role, though there could be more going on here.

26 August. 2015 U.S. ISM Will Follow China's PMI, But Not Yet - Services ISM Strong (Publication Centre)

The decline in China's unofficial PMI, which has dropped to a six-year low, signals increasing troubles ahead for U.S. manufacturers selling into China, and U.S. businesses operating in China. This does not mean, though, that the U.S. ISM will immediately fall as low as the Caixin/Markit China index appears to suggest in the next couple of months. Our first chart shows that in recent years the U.S. manufacturing ISM has tended hugely to outperform China's PMI from late spring to late fall, thanks to flawed seasonals.

9 July 2018 China's PMI Points to Q2 Strength, but Watch Slump in Export Orders (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI slipped in June, but the overall picture for Q2 is sound despite the uncertainty posed by rising trade tensions with the U.S.

ASIA Datanote: Flash Jibun Bank PMIs, March, Japan (Publication Centre)

Echoes of the global financial crisis and the 2011 tsunami in Japan's manufacturing PMI

4 September 2017 China's PMIs Imply Producer Prices are Still Rising Rapidly (Publication Centre)

This Monitor provides a summary of the main points of interest over the two weeks we were out. The Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI, published last Friday, confounded expectations for a modest fall, rising to 51.6 in August from 51.1 in July.

Barron's - China's Latest Numbers Aren't as Good as They Look (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on China's PMI data

Question of the Week, WC 7th Oct (Media Centre)

Are there any signs of a Chinese recovery yet? Freya Beamish discusses

Bloomberg - U.S. Capital-Equipment (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing Durable Goods Orders in May

Reuters - UK business malaise deepened before election - PMI (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

BBC NEWS - UK 'at risk of slipping into recession' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest PMI data

City A.M. - UK economy set to return to growth in third quarter after coronavirus chaos (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K PMI

The Times - Services sector enjoys Boris bounce (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. PMIs in December

3 April 2017 Expect Strength in Both the ISM and Construction Data Today (Publication Centre)

We'd be very surprised to see a material weakening in today's March ISM manufacturing survey. The regional reports released in recent weeks point to another reading in the high 50s, with a further advance from February's 57.7 a real possibility.

3 Apr 2020 Who Will Finance China's Ballooning Fiscal Deficit (Publication Centre)

China's economic targets are AWOL this year, thanks to Covid-19 disruptions to the legislative calendar... and because policymakers seem unsure of what targets to set in such uncertain times.

3 Apr 2020 Unfortunately, Jobless Claims Could Easily Rise Again Next Week (Publication Centre)

Today's payroll number is completely irrelevant, because 97% of the 10.2M increase--so far--in initial jobless claims from their pre-coronavirus level came after the employment survey was conducted, between Sunday March 8 and Saturday March 14.

3 April 2018 GDP Growth in the Eurozone is Slowing, but Not Collapsing (Publication Centre)

The economic data in the Eurozone were mixed while we were away.

3 December 2018 The Bank of Korea has Come to the End of its Tightening Cycle (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Korea finally pulled the trigger, raising its base rate to 1.75% at its meeting on Friday. After a year of will-they-or-won't-they, five of the Monetary Policy Board's seven members voted to add another 25 basis points to their previous hike twelve months ago.

3 Dec. 2015 Low Inflation Expectations Won't Become Self-Fulfilling (Publication Centre)

Households' inflation expectations have fallen again over the last few months, but we doubt they will constrain the forthcoming rebound in actual inflation. Past experience shows that inflation expectations are more of a coincident than a leading indicator of inflation. In addition, inflation is weakest right now in sectors where demand is relatively insensitive to price changes, so, when retailers' costs rise, they won't pay much heed to households' expectations.

3 December 2018 March 29 Is Not an Immovable Deadline for Brexit (Publication Centre)

Both the E.U. and the U.K. government have been keen to emphasise, since the Withdrawal Agreement was provisionally signed off, that March 29 is a hard deadline for Brexit.

3 December 2018 Tariff Deferment Shows Both Sides Want a Deal, but it Will Take Time (Publication Centre)

The agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 is a deferment of disaster rather than a fundamental rebuilding of the trading relationship between the U.S. and China.

3 Apr 2020 Markets are Stabilizing, but Incoming Data will Confirm a Deep Recession (Publication Centre)

LatAm financial and FX markets have behaved relatively well in recent sessions, thanks to the array of monetary and fiscal measures taken to counter the severe risk-off environment.

3 Dec. 2015 Great Expectations of the ECB, But Mr. Draghi Will Not Disappoint (Publication Centre)

Even Charles Dickens could not have written a more dramatic prologue to today's ECB meeting. Elevated expectations ahead of major policy events always leave room for major disappointment, but we think the central bank will deliver. Advance data yesterday indicated inflation was unchanged at 0.1% year-over-year in November, below the consensus 0.2%, and providing all the ammunition the doves need to push ahead. We expect the central bank to cut the deposit rate by 20bp to -0.4%, to increase the pace of bond purchases by €10B to €70B a month, and to extend QE to March 2017.

3 Dec 2019 Chainstore Sales for Thanksgiving Week Usually Look Good, but... (Publication Centre)

The Redbook chainstore sales survey today is likely to give the superficial impression that the peak holiday shopping season got off to a robust start last week.

3 April 2019 A Decent Industrial Report in Brazil, but the Rebound Remains Subpar (Publication Centre)

Brazil's February industrial production numbers, labour market data, and sentiment indicators are gradually providing clarity on the underlying pace of activity growth, pointing to some red flags.

3 April 2019 An Abysmal February will Destroy Q1 GDP Growth in Korea (Publication Centre)

Don't expect a pretty picture when Korea's Q1 GDP report appears in the last week of April.

3 April 2019 Is there a Majority in the Commons for Any Brexit Proposal? (Publication Centre)

Once again, MPs failed to coalesce around any way forward for Brexit in the indicative votes process on Monday.

3 Dec 2019 Can Labour Continue to Reduce the Tories' Poll Lead? (Publication Centre)

The political momentum in the run-up to the election now lies with Labour.

3 April 2018 Japan's Labour Market Tightness will Surprise the BoJ (Publication Centre)

Japan's unemployment rate edged back up to 2.5% in February after the drop in January to 2.4%.

29 May 2020 The EU's Recovery Fund won't Help Anyone in 2020 (Publication Centre)

As the dust settles from Wednesday's budget proposal by the EU Commission--see here--economists and investors are left with a myriad of questions.

28 Oct 2020 What's Really Happening to Home Prices--and What's Coming Next (Publication Centre)

The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices don't measure the same thing in the same way, never agree with each other, and often contradict themselves from month-to-month.

28 Sept 2020 How to Interpret the Sustained Rise in EZ Narrow Money (Publication Centre)

As far as liquidity goes, conditions in the EZ private sector remain conducive to a strong and sustained post Covid-19 upturn.

28 Oct 2020 Upside Risks to Q3 GDP Data This Week, but Anything can Happen (Publication Centre)

This EZ calendar is extremely busy over the next few days, so we'll use this Monitor to preview the key numbers, before turning our focus on the ECB in tomorrow's report.

28 Oct 2020 Korea's Q3 GDP Bounce is Likely to be Downgraded, Q4 will be Softer (Publication Centre)

Korea is officially out of recession, with GDP rising by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, following the 3.2% plunge in Q2.

28 Oct 2019 Germany is in Recession, When Will the Recovery Begin? (Publication Centre)

Survey data in Germany showed few signs of picking up from their depressed level at the start of Q4.

28 Oct 2019 The Trade Deficit Looks Set to Explode in Q4, it's not Just Boeing (Publication Centre)

Recent export performance has been poor, but the export orders index in the ISM manufacturing survey-- the most reliable short-term leading indicator--strongly suggests that it will be terrible in the fourth quarter.

28 Sept 2020 Recent Public Borrowing Data Flatter to Deceive (Publication Centre)

Recent estimates of public borrowing have undershot the OBR's expectations, superficially suggesting the Chancellor has greater-than- expected capacity to borrow even more in the winter, if Covid-19 wreaks havoc.

28 Sept. 2015 ECB is on Alert, but No Warning, So Far, From the Economy (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi used his introductory statement at the ECON--EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee-- hearing last week to assure investors that the central bank is vigilant to downside risks. The president noted the governing council "would not hesitate to act" if it deems growth and inflation to be undershooting expectations. Market volatility has increased the ECB's worries, but economic data continue to tell a story of a firm business cycle upturn.

29 April 2019 Mexico's Economy is Stabilizing, Despite Stifling Monetary Policy (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Mexico remains relatively sticky, limiting Banxico's capacity to adopt a more dovish approach, despite the subpar economic recovery.

29 April 2019 More Soft Surveys in the EZ, but the Q1 GDP Data Should Be Solid (Publication Centre)

The EZ economic survey data for April were disappointing in our absence.

29 April 2019 BoJ Wakes up to China's Slowdown, Goes into Lockdown (Publication Centre)

The BoJ until last week had been in wait-and-see mode over China's slowdown, but they finally folded with Thursday's decision.

29 Apr. 2016 Weak Q1 Growth Won't Persist - Better Data Coming, Soon (Publication Centre)

The astonishing 86% annualized plunge in capital spending in mining structures--mostly oil wells--alone subtracted 0.6 percentage points from headline GDP growth in the first quarter. The collapse was bigger than we expected, based on the falling rig count, but the key point is that it will not be repeated in the second quarter.

28 September 2018 Mixed Signals on Industry Peak or Plateau (Publication Centre)

It seems reasonable to think that manufacturing should be doing better in the U.S. than other major economies.

29 Apr 2020 Japan's Exposed Workers Feel the First Blow from Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

Japan's unemployment rate merely edged up to 2.5% in March, from February's 2.4% rate. It probably will end the year around one percentage point higher, though, with the pain extending through the second half.

28 Oct 2019 China's Q3 GDP was Dire, Official Headlines Don't Tell the Half of it (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth slowed to 6.0% year-over-year in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2 and 6.4% in Q1. Consecutive 0.2 percentage points declines are significant in China.

28 November 2018 No Level of Spin Can Paint China's Industrial Profits in a Better Light (Publication Centre)

The latest profits data out of China were grim, as we had expected.

28 June 2018 How will the Chinese Authorities Respond as Pro ts Growth Slows (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits growth is closely watched by the Chinese authorities, even more so now that deleveraging is a prime policy aim.

28 June 2018 Services Data to Highlight Downside Risk to the MPC's GDP Forecast (Publication Centre)

The MPC will be looking for the Q1 national accounts and April's index of services data, both released on Friday, to support its view that the economy hasn't lost momentum this year.

28 July. 2016 Acceleration of Q2 GDP Won't Have Much Bearing on Stimulus Debate (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, the preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP suggests that the economic recovery weathered Brexit risk well. But growth received support from some unsustainable sources, and also probably was boosted by a calendar quirk. Meanwhile, with few firms or consumers expecting a vote for Brexit prior to the referendum, Q2's brisk growth tells us little about how well the economy will cope in the current climate of heightened uncertainty.

28 July 2017 The Eurozone is in fine form, as we start our summer break (Publication Centre)

This is the final report before your scribe disappears into the Scottish Highlands for a few weeks, and we are leaving you with a Eurozone economy in fine form. The calendar will be relatively light in our absence and will tell us what we already know; namely that the euro area economy maintained its strong momentum in Q2.

28 Jan. 2016 Preliminary GDP Likely to Provide Another Downside Surprise (Publication Centre)

We expect today's preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP growth to surprise the consensus to the downside, underscoring our view that the economic recovery has shifted down to a much slower gear.

28 January 2019 The IFO Piles the Pressure on an Already Weak German Economy (Publication Centre)

Judging by the survey data, German business sentiment remained depressed at the start of the year.

28 March 2017 EZ Money Supply Hit by Non-M1 Components in February (Publication Centre)

Momentum in the euro area's money supply slowed last month. M3 growth dipped to 4.7% year-over-year in February, from a downwardly-revised 4.8% in January. The headline was mainly constrained by the broad money components. The stock of repurchase agreements slumped 24.3% year-over-year and growth in money market fund shares also slowed sharply.

28 March 2018 Japan's Labour Market to Continue Tightening this Year (Publication Centre)

Data to be released this Friday should show that Japan's labour market remains tight, though the unemployment rate likely ticked back up in February, to 2.6%, after the erratic drop to 2.4% in January.

28 Nov 2019 The Case for Larger PBoC Cuts Grows as Chinese Profits Tank (Publication Centre)

China's abysmal industrial profits data for October underscore why the chances of less- timid monetary easing are rising rapidly.

28 Nov 2019 Spare a Thank You for the Strong and Stable French Consumer (Publication Centre)

French consumers remained in great spirits midway through the fourth quarter. The headline INSEE consumer confidence index jumped to a 28-month high in November, from 104 in October, extending its v-shaped recovery from last year's plunge on the back of the yellow vest protests.

28 May 2019 Raising the Alarm on German Private Investment in Q2 and Q3 (Publication Centre)

We covered the detailed German Q1 GDP report in Friday's Monitor--see here--but the investment data could do with closer inspection. The headline numbers looked great.

28 May 2019 Count on Consumers to Drag the Economy Through the Brexit Mess (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister's resignation and the stillborn launch of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill last week has forced us to revise our Brexit base case, from a soft E.U. departure on October 31 to continued paralysis.

28 March 2019 Super Low Gilt Yields Aren't Warranted by the Economic Outlook (Publication Centre)

Gilt yields have tumbled, with the 10-year sliding to just 1.0%, from 1.2% a week ago.

29 Aug 2019 How About Slightly Stronger EZ GDP Growth in Q3 and Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's money supply data in the Eurozone were solid across the board.

29 Aug 2019 Is the Growth Drag from Foreign Trade set to Persist (Publication Centre)

Net foreign trade was a drag on GDP growth in the second quarter, subtracting 0.7 percentage points from the headline number.

29 Nov 2019 EZ Leading Indicators are Still Mixed, We put our Faith in M1 (Publication Centre)

Leading economic indicators in the Eurozone continue to send contradictory signals. Most of the headline surveys indicate that a further slowdown, and perhaps even recession, are imminent, while the money supply data suggest that GDP growth is about to re-accelerate.

29 Nov 2019 Japan is in for a Big Q4 GDP Hit, as Abe's Tax-Smoothing has Fallen Flat (Publication Centre)

Retail sales values in Japan plunged by 14.4% month-on-month in October, reversing September's 7.2% spike twice over.

29 Nov 2019 Banxico will Keep Cutting Rates, but Prudence will Prevail in the Near Term (Publication Centre)

Data released this week have confirmed that the Mexican economy is struggling and that the near-term outlook remains extremely challenging.

29 May 2020 The Government will Blink on Brexit, Though Not Until the Last Minute (Publication Centre)

For now, the U.K. government still insists that the Brexit transition period will end in December, regardless of whether a new trade deal has been negotiated with the E.U. or not.

29 May 2018 Capex Starts the Second Quarter Strongly, Further Gains Ahead? (Publication Centre)

The newly-revised data on capital goods orders, released on Friday, support our view that sustained strength in business capex remains a good bet for this year.

29 May 2019 Will Consumers Save Less this Year, in Order to Spend More (Publication Centre)

While businesses--and farmers--fret over the damage already wrought by the trade war with China and the further pain to come, consumers are remarkably happy.

29 Nov 2019 The Recovery in Sentiment Will Be Fleeting, if the Tories' Majority is Small (Publication Centre)

The emergence last month of a new E.U. Withdrawal Agreement that has a strong chance of being ratified by MPs appears to have given a small boost to business confidence.

29 November 2017 Eurozone GDP Growth Will Slow Soon, Will Markets Care? (Publication Centre)

Headline money supply growth in the Eurozone has averaged 5% year-over-year since the beginning of 2015; yesterday's October data did not change that story.

29 October 2018 The Glass is Half-Full for French and German Households (Publication Centre)

Friday's consumer sentiment data in the two main Eurozone economies were mixed.

29 Sept 2020 No-Deal Is a Risk Too Great for the Conservatives (Publication Centre)

Sterling yesterday clawed back some of the ground it lost earlier this month, when the government put forward the controversial Internal Markets Bill.

29 Oct 2019 Monetary Stimulus Alone Won't be Able to End the Next Recession (Publication Centre)

Monetary policy usually is the first line of defence whenever a recession hits.

29 Oct 2019 Consumers Still Confident, but Job Growth will Slow, Testing their Faith (Publication Centre)

We aren't convinced by the idea that consumers' confidence will be depressed as a direct result of the rollover in most of the regular surveys of business sentiment and activity.

29 Oct 2019 Can we Rely on M1 as a Leading Indicator in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ money supply data confirmed that liquidity conditions in the private sector improved in Q3, despite the dip in the headline.

29 Oct 2019 China's Economy Still on the Rocks, A Bit More Easing is on its Way (Publication Centre)

Our analysis of the Q3 activity and GDP data in yesterday's Monitor strongly suggests that China's authorities will soon ready further stimulus.

29 May 2018 A Peek into the Abyss of an Italian Parallel Currency and Euro Exit (Publication Centre)

We have to hand it to Italy's politicians. In an economy with a current account surplus of 3% of GDP, a nearly balanced net foreign asset position and with the majority of government debt held by domestic investors, the leading parties have managed to prompt markets to flatten the yield curve via a jump in shortterm interest rates.

29 March 2019 Is There Any Way Through the Brexit Bind? (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister appears set to have one more go at getting the House of Commons to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement today.

29 July 2019 The MPC Won't Provide Meaningful Policy Signals this Side of Brexit (Publication Centre)

The MPC won't seek to make waves on Thursday.

29 July 2020 Brazil's Improving External Accounts Strengthens the Case for a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts remain relatively solid, making it easier for the country to withstand any potential external or domestic threat.

29 January 2019 Is it a Good Idea for Markets to Ignore Poor Macro Data in the EZ (Publication Centre)

In the last few weeks markets have been treated to the news that euro area industrial production crashed towards the end of Q4, warning that GDP growth failed to rebound at the end of 2018 from an already weak Q3.

29 Jan. 2016 EZ Core Inflation is Rising, but Weak Oil Prices are Still a Wildcard (Publication Centre)

German data yesterday indicate that inflation pressures have, so far, been resilient in the face of the recent collapse in oil prices. Inflation rose to 0.5% year-over-year in January from 0.3% in December, partly due to base effects pushing up the year-over-year rate in energy prices, but core inflation rose too. The detailed state data indicate that almost all key components of the core index contributed positively, lead by leisure and recreation and healthcare.

29 Feb. 2016 Core PCE Inflation Will Breach the Target This Year, Two Years Early (Publication Centre)

When we argue that the Fed will have to respond to accelerating wages and core prices by raising rates faster than markets expect, a frequent retort is that the Fed has signalled a greater tolerance than in the past for inflation overshoots.

29 Jan 2020 What Policy Measures Can we Expect to Cushion Corona-impact (Publication Centre)

The extent of shut downs within China is now reaching extreme levels, going far beyond services and threatening demand for commodities, as well as posing a severe risk to the nascent upturn in the tech cycle.

29 July 2020 Disposable Incomes are Heading for their Biggest Annual Post-War Drop (Publication Centre)

The 2008-to-09 recession was a mild experience for most households which remained employed and benefited from a huge decline in mortgage rates.

29 July 2020 The Good and Bad in the Recovery of Chinese Industrial Profits (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits in China continued to strengthen in June, rising by 11.5% year-over-year, marking an acceleration from 6.0% in the previous month.

29 March 2019 Core PCE Inflation is Stable, but Risk from Higher January Airline Fares (Publication Centre)

Our base case forecast has core PCE inflation at 1.9% from November 2018 through July this year.

29 March 2019 German Core Inflation Slumped in March, but it will Rebound in April (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday revealed that headline inflation in Germany was unchanged in March at 1.5%, thanks mainly to higher energy inflation, which offset a dip in food inflation.

29 March 2018 Net Trade Will be a Drag on Q1 GDP, but Inventories are Rocketing (Publication Centre)

If we're right with our forecast that real consumers' spending rose by just 0.1% month-to-month in February -- enough only to reverse January's decline -- then it would be reasonable to expect consumption across the first quarter as a whole to climb at a mere 1.2% annualized rate.

29 June 2020 New Gilt Issuance Projections will Imply Rising Private Sector Holdings (Publication Centre)

Investors active in the government bond market will be awaiting today, at 07:30 BST, the publication by the Debt Management Office of its updated Financing Remit for the upcoming three months. The new Remit will show that gilt sales, net of redemptions, will be lower in Q3 than in Q2.

29 June 2018 Core PCE Inflation is Nudging Towards the Target (Publication Centre)

Our base-case forecast for the May core PCE deflator, due today, is a 0.17% increase, lifting the year-over-year rate by a tenth to 1.9%.

29 September 2017 China's Pending Targeted RRR cut Implies SMEs are Struggling (Publication Centre)

China is set to ease reserve requirements for banks lending to small businesses. In a statement after the State Council meeting yesterday, Premier Li Keqiang said that commercial banks would receive a cut in their RRR , from 17% currently, based on how much they lend to businesses run by individuals.

3 July 2019 Further Signs of a Q2 Slowdown in German Consumption (Publication Centre)

German retail sales always have to be taken with a pinch of salt, given their monthly volatility and often substantial revisions, but the preliminary Q2 data don't look pretty.

30 Oct 2019 Don't Put All Your Election Chips on Blue (Publication Centre)

Britain looks set for a general election during the week commencing December 9, now that all main parties are pushing for a pre-Christmas poll.

30 Oct 2019 BoJ Forecasts Due for a Downgrade, Expect a Package of Measures (Publication Centre)

Markets see a strong possibility, though not a probability, that the BoJ will cut rates on Thursday.

30 November. 2016 Brazilian Political Risk is Rising, But Won't Derail the Fiscal Adjustment (Publication Centre)

Political volatility is a recurrent theme in Brazil. Six members of President Michel Temer's cabinet resigned last Friday due to allegations of conflict of interest on a construction deal. Rumours that President Temer was involved in the affair stirred up market volatility and revived political risk concerns

30 November 2018 Fourth Quarter Consumption is Headed for a Solid 3% Gain (Publication Centre)

Neither the strength in October consumption nor the softness of core PCE inflation, reported yesterday, are sustainable.

30 Oct 2019 The Fed will Ease Today, but will Signal a Pause Unless Growth Tanks (Publication Centre)

The stage is set for the Fed to ease by 25bp today, but to signal that further reductions in the funds rate would require a meaningful deterioration in the outlook for growth or unexpected downward pressure on inflation.

30 Oct 2019 Will the Pension Reform Bring Back the Yellow Vests in France (Publication Centre)

French consumer confidence and consumption have been among the main bright spots in the euro area economy so far this year.

30 Sept 2020 Mexico's External Accounts Continue to Improve, for Now (Publication Centre)

The improvement in Mexico's trade surplus since mid last year consolidated in Q2, albeit not for any welcome reason, as imports fell more sharply than exports on the back of pandemic-induced crash.

30 Sept 2020 Korea's Mid-Quarter Wobble All But Confirms Third Straight GDP Drop (Publication Centre)

Korea's main activity data for August showed that the economy clearly wobbled in the wake of the country's second wave of Covid-19, and the social distancing measures imposed in response to it.

30 Sept 2019 Follow the Numbers for Clues to Mr. Trump's Impeachment Fate (Publication Centre)

We have no way of knowing what will be the final outcome of the impeachment inquiry now underway in the House of Representatives, but we are pretty sure that the first key stage will end with a vote to send the President for trial in the Senate.

30 November 2017 Japanese Retail Sales Disappoint but Confidence Rebounds (Publication Centre)

Japanese retail sales were unchanged in October month-on-month, after a 0.8% rise in September.

30 May 2019 The German Labour Market Finally Realises that Growth has Slowed (Publication Centre)

Reporting on the German labour market has been like watching paint dry in this expansion, but yesterday's data were a stark exception to this rule.

30 July 2020 No Changes Yet from the Fed, but the Door is Open for the Fall (Publication Centre)

The Fed made no changes to policy yesterday, as was almost universally expected.

30 January 2019 Did the "Yellow Vests" Ruin French GDP Growth in Q4? (Publication Centre)

Today's barrage of data kicks off a couple of busy days in the Eurozone economic calendar.

30 Jan 2020 The Chancellor's GDP Growth Target is Practically Unachievable (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Javid told the Financial Times earlier this month that he wants to lift the rate of GDP growth to between 2.7% and 2.8%, the average rate in the 50 years following the Second World War.

30 Jan 2020 Fed Policy Still "Appropriate", FOMC Watching Virus Story "Very Carefully" (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's FOMC , announcing a unanimous vote for no change in the funds rate, is almost identical to December's.

30 June 2017 Core PCE Inflation set to Fall Again, but it won't Sway the Fed (Publication Centre)

We have argued recently that the year-over-year rates of core CPI and core PCE inflation could cross over the next year, with core PCE rising more quickly for the first time since 2010.

30 June 2020 Argentina's Economic Nightmare will Continue, Despite Bottoming in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that Argentina's economy remains a mess.

30 May 2018 Will Japan's Labour Market Begin to Soften Later this Year? (Publication Centre)

Japan's domestic demand has underperformed in the last three quarters, while exports were strong last year but weakened--due to temporary factors--in Q1.

30 June 2020 Covid-19 has had a Limited Impact on German Core inflation, for Now (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance CPI data in Germany suggest that EZ inflation is now rebounding slightly.

30 June 2020 Case Growth Might be Starting to Slow in Arizona, Others Later (Publication Centre)

It's possible that first hints of better news ahead in the Covid surge in the South and West are beginning to emerge in the data.

31 August 2017 Third Quarter Consumption off to a Strong Start? (Publication Centre)

Today's wave of economic reports are all likely to be strong. The most important single number is the increase in real consumers' spending in July, the first month of the third quarter.

31 August 2018 Did Eurozone Core Inflation Decline Slightly in August (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance CPI data in Germany suggest that inflation fell slightly in August.

31 July 2020 Covid-19 Brought Mexico's Economy to its Knees, and the Outlook is Grim (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of Q2 GDP in Mexico confirmed that the economy has been under severe stress in recent months.

31 July 2019 The Bank of Japan Snubs the Doves, with its Options Knowingly Limited (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's BoJ statement, outlook and press conference raised our conviction on two key aspects of the policy outlook.

31 July 2019 Rising Confidence Points to Solid Household Spending Ahead of Brexit (Publication Centre)

The further depreciation of sterling yesterday, to its lowest level against the dollar and euro since March 2017 and September 2017, respectively, signified deepening pessimism among investors about the chances of a no-deal Brexit.

31 July 2018 Japanese Q2 GDP Growth Should Rebound Strongly (Publication Centre)

Japan's June retail sales data add to the run of numbers suggesting a strong rebound in real GDP growth in Q2, after the 0.2% contraction in activity in Q1.

31 Mar 2020 Business and Consumer Confidence are Cratering, Further Falls Ahead (Publication Centre)

A pair of closely-watched reports today will confirm that business and consumer confidence is tanking in the face of the coronavirus outbreak.

31 Mar 2020 Expanded Fiscal Support Opens Road to Chinese QE (Publication Centre)

The PBoC cut its seven-day reverse repo rate to 2.20%, from 2.40%, while making a token injection; the Bank only moves these rates when it injects funds.

31 March 2017 Eurozone Inflation Data will Undershoot the Consensus Today (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance data from Germany and Spain suggest that today's Eurozone inflation report will undershoot the consensus. In Germany, headline inflation slipped to 1.6% in March from 2.2% in February, and in Spain the headline rate plunged to 2.3% from 3.0%.

31 March 2017 February Consumption Will Look Grim (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the February consumer spending data, due today, will contradict the upbeat signal from confidence surveys. The dramatic upturn in sentiment since the election is consistent with a rapid surge in real consumption, but we're expecting to see unchanged real spending in February, following a startling 0.3% decline in January.

31 Mar 2020 Will Housing Market Activity See a V-Shaped Recovery This Year? (Publication Centre)

Covid-19 has cut short a nascent recovery in housing market activity.

31 January 2019 Powell Says No Fed Put, but Stocks Jump and the Curve Steepens (Publication Centre)

The FOMC has gone all-in, more or less, on the idea that the headwinds facing the economy mean that the hiking cycle is over.

31 January 2019 Japanese Retail Sales Demand a Q4 Private Consumption Upgrade (Publication Centre)

The value of Japanese retail sales bounced back strongly in December, rising 0.9% month-on-month, after a 1.1% drop in November.

31 Jan 2020 Ignore Korea's Upbeat Surveys: a Coronavirus Hit is Looming (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Korea's two main monthly economic surveys were very perky in January.

31 Jan 2020 EZ Core Inflation is Set to Drop More than Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that German inflation roared higher at the start of the year, but the devil is in the detail.

31 August. 2016 ADP Likely to Report Strong August Payrolls, But it's Unreliable (Publication Centre)

We are expecting a hefty increase in the August ADP employment number today--our forecast is 225K, above the 175K consensus --but we do not anticipate a similar official payroll number on Friday. Remember, the ADP number is based on a model which incorporates lagged official employment data, the Philly Fed's ADS Business Conditions Index, and data from firms which use ADP for payroll processing.

31 August. 2015 Fed Officials All Over the Map, But September Still Looks Unlikely (Publication Centre)

FOMC members in fleeces took to the airwaves en masse on Friday morning from Jackson Hole, but most said pretty much what you'd expect them to say. Arch-hawks Loretta Mester and no-quite-so-hawkish Jim Bullard strongly suggested that they think the time to raise rates is very near, while super-dove Naryana Kocherlakota said he doesn't regard a near-term hike as "appropriate". No surprises there.

31 Jan 2020 The Wage Growth Gap Persists: No Sign Yet of a Labor Scarcity Premium (Publication Centre)

It's a myth that the 10-ye ar decline in the unemployment rate has not driven up the pace of wage growth.

31 January 2017 Will Faster Wage Growth Finally Trigger An Acceleration in the ECI? (Publication Centre)

The headline employment cost index has been remarkably dull recently, with three straight 0.6% quarterly increases. The consensus forecast for today's report, for the three months to December, is for the same again.

31 January 2018 Japan's Labour Market Squeeze is set to Intensify Further (Publication Centre)

Japan's headline jobless rate edged up to 2.8% in December, from 2.7% in November, but the increase was negligible, with the rate moving to 2.76% from 2.74%.

31 January 2018 FOMC Likely More Bullish on Growth, but No Policy Changes (Publication Centre)

Chair Yellen's final FOMC meeting today will be something of a non-event in economic terms.

31 January 2018 2017 was a Record-Breaking Year for the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance Eurozone Q4 GDP report conformed to expectations. Headline GDP increased 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, slowing trivially from an upwardly-revised 0.7% rise in Q3, and nudging the year-over-year rate down marginally to 2.7%.

30 Jan 2020 Don't Panic Over the Slump in EZ M3 Growth, M1 Still Looks Firm (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the euro area were mixed.

30 Jan 2020 Coronavirus Raises the Risks of a Technical Recession in Japan (Publication Centre)

Japan is one of the countries most exposed to economic damage from the coronavirus.

28 Jan 2020 Plummeting Boeing Orders Mean Downside Risk for Durable Goods (Publication Centre)

Core durable goods orders in recent months have been much less terrible than implied by both the ISM and Markit manufacturing surveys.

3 July 2019 Japan's Tankan Highlights Underlying Economic Weakness (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q2 Tankan survey wasn't all bad news, but the positives won't last long. The large manufacturers index dropped to 7 in Q2, after the decline to 12 in Q1.

3 July 2018 The EZ Economic Reform Agenda Lives to Fight Another Day (Publication Centre)

Last week's EU summit was an exercise in political pragmatism rather than the bold step forward on reforms that investors had been hoping for.

3 July 2017 China's Industrial Complex still Strong in Q2, H2 in Draghi's Hands (Publication Centre)

We expect China's quarterly real GDP growth in the second quarter to edge down from Q1, but only because Q1 growth was unsustainable. The official data shows real GDP growth at 1.3% quarter-onquarter in Q1.

3 July 2019 Not All Construction Sector Indicators are Flashing Red (Publication Centre)

Don't write off the outlook for the construction sector purely on the basis of June's grim Markit/CIPS survey.

3 July 2020 We're Now Slightly Less Optimistic about Inventories in the EZ (Publication Centre)

This week's economic reports have provided clear, and uplifting, evidence that EZ consumers came out swinging as lockdowns were lifted.

3 Mar 2020 A Bad Q1 for LatAm, DM Stimulus will be Only a Temporary Boost (Publication Centre)

It has been a nasty start to the year for LatAm as markets have been hit by renewed volatility in China, triggered by the coronavirus.

3 June 2020 Korean Exports Stabilised in May, but Q2 will Still be a Wash Out (Publication Centre)

Korea's economy is shaping up largely in line with our expectations for the second quarter, with private consumption recovering, but exports and investment tanking.

3 June 2019 Economic Data Still Don't Warrant the Gilt Market's Gloom (Publication Centre)

Gilts continued to rally last week, with 10-year yields dropping to their lowest since October 2016, and the gap between two-year and 10-year yields narrowing to the smallest margin since September 2008.

3 January 2019 No Respite for Eurozone Manufacturing at the end of 2018 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report in the Eurozone confirmed that the economy slowed further at the end of 2018.

3 January 2018 The Manufacturing Upswing Continues no Sign of Weakening (Publication Centre)

The Manufacturing Upswing Continues; no Sign of Weakening

3 Jan 2020 A Strategic Look at the Medium- Term Outlook for CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation looks set to remain below the 2% target this year, driven by sterling's recent appreciation and lower energy prices.

3 Feb. 2015 Behind the Noise, U.S. Economic Fundamentals are Solid (Publication Centre)

We are not bothered by either the drop in real December consumption, all of which was due to a weather-induced plunge in utility spending, or the drop in the ISM manufacturing index, which is mostly a story about hopeless seasonal adjustments.

3 Feb 2020 The Eurozone Economy all but Stalled at the End of 2019 (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance Q4 growth numbers in the EZ were a bit of a dumpster fire.

3 Feb 2020 Some Hopeful Signs are Emerging in the Coronavirus Data (Publication Centre)

The number of coronavirus cases continues to increase, but we're expecting to see signs that the number of new cases is peaking within the next two to three weeks.

3 Jan 2020 Korean Two-Way Trade Ends 2019 on a High Note, Salvaging Q4 (Publication Centre)

Korean trade ended the year strongly, salvaging what was shaping up as a dull fourth quarter for the economy.

3 Jan 2020 LatAm Prospects are Gradually Improving as Trade Tensions Ease (Publication Centre)

The data in LatAm were all over the map while we were out.

3 January 2017 The Eurozone in 2017: Higher Inflation and Slower M1 Growth? (Publication Centre)

A bullish EZ money supply report was the key highlight while we were away over the holidays. M3 growth in the euro area accelerated to 4.8% year-over-year in November from 4.4% in October.

3 Jan 2020 More Soft EZ Manufacturing Data, but Markets Don't Care Anymore (Publication Centre)

The first economic report of 2020 confirmed the main story in the euro area last year; namely a recession in manufacturing.

3 Jan 2020 Manufacturing Still Struggling, but no Longer Sinking Deeper (Publication Centre)

The substantial gap between the key manufacturing surveys for the U.S. and China, relative to their long-term relationship, likely narrowed a bit in December.

3 Mar 2020 Expect a "One and Done" Virus Response from the MPC (Publication Centre)

The Bank of England issued a statement yesterday that it is "working closely with HM Treasury and the FCA--as well as our international partners--to ensure all necessary steps are taken to protect financial and monetary stability".

3 March 2017 Banxico is Facing a Tough Dilemma, but the Copom is Sitting Pretty (Publication Centre)

Banxico's Quarterly Inflation Report--QIR--for Q4 2016, published this week, confirmed that the monetary authority is concerned about the slowing pace of economic activity and rising inflation pressures. Banxico noted that signs of a recovery have emerged in external demand, but it also pointed out that the Trump administration might impose policies which would hit FDI flows into Mexico.

30 April 2018 Hospital Services Inflation is now the Biggest Near-Term Threat to the Fed (Publication Centre)

We already have a pretty good idea of what happened to consumers' spending in March, following Friday's GDP release, so the single most important number in today's monthly personal income and spending report, in our view, is the hospital services component of the deflator.

30 Apr. 2015 FOMC acknowledges slowdown in Q1, but core view unchanged (Publication Centre)

The FOMC delivered no big surprises yesterday, but seemed keen to make it clear that policymakers are sticking to their core views, despite the slowdown in growth in the first quarter. Unlike the March statement, yesterday's note pointed out that the slowdown came in the winter months, though it did not directly blame the weather for the sluggishness in growth.

30 Apr 2020 The Fed is Doing all it Can (Publication Centre)

The Fed's statement yesterday was unsurprising, acknowledging a "sharp" decline in economic activity and a significant tightening of financial conditions, which has "impaired the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses."

3 Sep 2020 The German Consumer is in Good Shape, Relatively Speaking (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, yesterday's German consumption data were disappointingly weak.

30 April 2019 Focus on Accelerating M1 Growth amid Still-Poor Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic numbers in the Eurozone were mixed, but we are inclined to see them through rose-tinted glasses.

30 April 2019 Three Soft Core PCE Deflator Numbers Don't Make a Trend (Publication Centre)

It's pretty easy to spin a story that the recent core PCE numbers represent a sharp and alarming turn south.

30 Aug 2019 Trade Spats are Starting to Hurt Business Sentiment in Korea (Publication Centre)

The recent spate of manufacturing business survey indices from Korea show that sentiment is deteriorating in the wake of its trade spat with Japan and the re-intensification of U.S.-China tensions.

30 Aug 2019 More Cheery Data in France, but the German Numbers Look Grim (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic news in the French economy was solid.

30 Aug 2019 Markets are Underestimating the Risk of Higher Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Markets remain convinced that the U.S. faces no meaningful inflation risk for the foreseeable future.

3 October 2018 Mixed Activity Data in Brazil Ahead of a Contested Presidential Election (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial production surprised to the downside in August, suggesting that manufacturing is struggling to gather momentum over the second half of the year.

3 October 2018 Are Higher Wages Squeezing EZ Manufacturing Margins? (Publication Centre)

Producer price inflation in the euro area almost surely peaked over the summer.

3 May 2017 EZ Q1 GDP Growth Likely won't Live up to the Soaring Surveys (Publication Centre)

Survey data point to a very strong headline, 0.6%-to-0.7% quarter-on-quarter, in today's Q1 advance Eurozone GDP report. But the hard data have been less ebullient than the surveys. A GDP regression using retail sales, industrial production and construction points to a more modest 0.4% increase, implying a slowdown from the upwardly-revised 0.5% gain in Q4.

3 May 2017 BanRep Acted Boldly on Friday. Will the BCRP follow Suit Next Week? (Publication Centre)

Colombia's sluggish growth and near-term economic outlook resembles that of most other LatAm economies. Domestic demand is weak, credit conditions are tight, and confidence is depressed. The medium term outlook, however, is perking up, slowly.

3 March 2017 Will the Chancellor Change the MPC's Inflation Target? (Publication Centre)

The CPIH--the controversial, modified version of the existing CPI that includes a measure of owner occupied housing, or OOH, costs--will become the headline measure of consumer price inflation when February's data are published on March 21.

3 May 2018 A Sense of Relief, Despite the Q1 Slowdown in the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance Q1 GDP data in the EZ confirmed that growth slowed at the start of the year.

3 May 2019 The MPC Signals that Rate Hikes are Coming, Though Not Just Yet (Publication Centre)

The MPC restated its commitment to an "ongoing tightening of monetary policy" yesterday, but provided no new guidance to suggest that the next hike is imminent.

3 Nov. 2015 Truck Sales Soaring, Lifted by Cheap Gas, Robust Confidence (Publication Centre)

Most of the time, markets view auto sales as a bellwether indicator of the state of the consumer. Vehicles are the biggest-ticket item for most households, after housing, and most people buy cars and trucks with credit. Auto purchase decisions, therefore, tend not to be taken lightly, and so are a good guide to peoples' underlying confidence and cashflow. We appreciate that things were different at the peak of the boom, when anyone could get a loan and homeowners could tap the rising values of their properties, but that's not the situation today.

3 Nov. 2015 Manufacturing Unlikely to be Past the Worst (Publication Centre)

The sharp and unexpected improvement in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey in October released on Monday raised hopes that the recession in the industrial sector might be over. A cool look at the evidence, however, suggests that this probably is just wishful thinking.

3 May. 2016 Will GDP Growth in the Eurozone Accelerate This Year? (Publication Centre)

Last week's advance EZ GDP data for the first quarter suggest the economy shrugged off the volatility in financial markets. Eurostat's first estimate indicates that real GDP in the euro area rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, up from 0.3% in Q4, and above the consensus, 0.4%.

3 Feb 2020 Improving Money and Credit Trends Point to Further MPC Inaction (Publication Centre)

December's money and credit data support the MPC's decision last week to hold back from providing the economy with more stimulus.

27 February 2018 Indefinite Xi-ism will mean Spikes in Volatility, as big Decisions Roll Out (Publication Centre)

The Chinese Communist Party looks set to repeal Presidential term limits, meaning that Xi Jinping likely intends to stay on beyond 2023.

25 July 2019 Today's Array of Data Could Shift the Needle on Q2 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

The June durable goods, trade and inventory reports today, could make a material difference to forecasts for the first estimate of second quarter GDP growth, due tomorrow.

25 July 2019 Grim Manufacturing Data Confirm Investors' Priors in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Broadly speaking, yesterday's headline EZ survey data recounted the same story they've told all year; namely that manufacturing is suffering amid resilience in services.

23 Jan. 2015 The ECB gets ahead of the curve with significant QE program (Publication Centre)

The ECB sent a strong signal yesterday that it is ready to fight deflation with a full range of unconventional monetary policy tools. Asset purchases, including sovereigns, to the tune of €60B per month will begin in March, and will run until end-September 2016, but Mr. Draghi noted that purchases could continue if the ECB is not satisfied with the trajectory of inflation.

23 January 2018 China's Demand for Foreign Goods Slows as Output Curbs Loosened? (Publication Centre)

Korean 20-day exports are volatile and often miss the mark with respect to the full-month print. But these data offer the month's first look at Asian trade, and we often find value in these early signs.

25 June 2018 In the Race to the BoJ's Inflation Target, our Money is on the Glacier (Publication Centre)

Japan's headline inflation will be volatile for the rest of the year, thanks to movements in the noncore elements.

23 Jan 2020 The ECB Will Stick to its Guns Today, Negative Rates Work (Publication Centre)

Barring a meteor strike, the ECB will leave its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged today, at 0.00% and -0.5% respectively.

25 June 2019 New Home Sales Set for a Steady Summer, but New Highs in the Fall (Publication Centre)

We are fundamentally quite bullish on the housing market, given the 100bp drop in mortgage rates over the past six months and the continued strength of the labor market, but today's May new home sales report likely will be unexciting.

25 June 2018 The EU and Greek have a Deal, but They'll Meet Again... in 2030 (Publication Centre)

Last week's debt-relief agreement between Greece and its European creditors goes somewhat further than previous instances when the EU has kicked the can down the road.

25 June 2018 Imports Still Falling as the Hurricane Surge Continues to Unwind? (Publication Centre)

The latest data from container ports around the country are consistent with our view that imports are still correcting after the surge late last year, triggered by the hurricanes.

25 July 2017 Korean Q2 GDP Growth to Provide Evidence of Chinese Slowdown (Publication Centre)

After strong real GDP growth in Q1, China commentators called the peak, claiming that growth would slow for the rest of 2017.

23 January 2018 Plunging Oil Output Points to Below-Consensus Q4 GDP (Publication Centre)

We see considerable downside risk to the consensus forecast that GDP increased by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, the same as in Q3.

23 June 2020 The Leap in Germany's Covid-19 R-Number is Misleadingly Scary (Publication Centre)

The big talking point over the weekend was the report from Germany's Robert Koch Institute, RKI, that the Covid-19 reproductive rate jumped to 2.88 at the end of last week, driving the seven-day average up to 2.07.

23 June 2020 The Treasury has Cash on Hand to Cut VAT, but Should Focus Elsewhere (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak looks set to announce more fiscal stimulus next month to reinforce the economic recovery, despite recent record levels of public borrowing.

23 June. 2016 Brexit Would Trigger a Dollar Surge, But it's an Unlikely Outcome (Publication Centre)

With most poll-of-poll measures showing a very narrow margin in the U.K. Brexit referendum, while betting markets show a huge majority for "Remain", today brings a live experiment in the idea that the wisdom of crowds is a better guide to elections than peoples' preferences.

23 June 2020 The Housing Rebound is Intact, Ignore May's Drop in Existing Home Sales (Publication Centre)

Hot on the heels of yesterday's grim-looking-- temporarily--existing home sales numbers for May, we see upside risk for today's new sales data.

23 July 2020 Retail Sales Likely were Close to Pre- Virus Levels in June (Publication Centre)

We look for a 12.5% month-to-month jump in the official measure of retail sales in June, released on Friday. This easily would top the consensus, 8.3%, for a second consecutive month.

23 January 2018 Unemployment in Mexico Close to Cyclical Lows, Despite Rising Risks (Publication Centre)

High inflation and interest rates, coupled with increasing uncertainty, both economic and political, put Mexican consumption under strain last year.

25 January 2019 The ECB Admits it Might not be Able to Raise Rates in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The ECB made no major policy changes yesterday.

23 July 2019 How Long Until the Next General Election? (Publication Centre)

The spectre of a general election relentlessly will haunt the new Prime Minister--due to be announced as Tory party leader today before moving into Downing Street tomorrow--but our base case remains that a poll won't happen this year.

25 June 2019 The IFO Signals Slow Q2 GDP Growth in Germany We Believe it (Publication Centre)

The IFO continues to tell a story of a German economy on the ropes.

25 June 2020 All Eyes on Germany's Data for a Hit from the NRW Lockdown (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national business confidence data for June provided further evidence that the EZ economy is rebounding.

25 Sept. 2015 Yellen Defends Orthodoxy: Policy Lags Mean Rates to Rise this Year (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen set out a robust and detailed defense of the orthodox approach to monetary policy in her speech in Amherst, MA, yesterday afternoon. Her core argument could have come straight from the textbook: As the labor market tightens, cost pressures will build. Monetary policy operates with a "substantial" lag, so waiting too long is dangerous; the "...prudent strategy is to begin tightening in a timely fashion and at a gradual pace".

25 Sept 2019 More Bad News from the IFO, but the INSEE Data are More Upbeat (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's business confidence data in the EZ core were mixed.

25 October 2018 What's the Target Mr. Draghi Headline or Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

The ECB will not make any major changes to policy today.

25 October 2018 The Bank of Japan Turns its Attention to Real Estate Risks (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Japan's biannual Financial System Report was published earlier this week.

25 September 2018 A Solid IFO and Mr. Draghi Send Bund Yields Higher (Publication Centre)

The IFO survey signals that markets shouldn't be too downbeat on the German economy, even as it faces uncertainty from global trade tensions.

25 September 2018 Has China Stemmed the Decline of Productivity Growth (Publication Centre)

Amid all the trade tensions, it's easy to lose sight of the big picture for China.

26 Aug 2020 Germany's Economy Dodged a Bullet in H1, Relatively Speaking (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed Q2 GDP report in Germany confirmed that economic output nosedived during lockdown, but also showed that the economy was resilient compared to the rest of the EZ.

26 Aug 2020 Capex is Rising, but it Won't Recover its Losses in the Foreseeable Future (Publication Centre)

After two hefty month-to-month increases, durable goods orders ex-transportation now stand only 3.9% below their January pre-Covid peak.

26 April 2017 French Business Confidence is Solid, but Manufacturing Fell in Q1 (Publication Centre)

French manufacturing confidence soared at the start of Q2. The headline INSEE index jumped to a six-year high of 108 in April, from an upwardly revised 105 in March. The headline was flattered by a big increase in the "past activity" index, but the survey's leading indicators also improved.French manufacturing confidence soared at the start of Q2. The headline INSEE index jumped to a six-year high of 108 in April, from an upwardly revised 105 in March. The headline was flattered by a big increase in the "past activity" index, but the survey's leading indicators also improved.

25 October 2017 Xi Immortalised in Constitution but is Wang's Retirement a Precedent? (Publication Centre)

The end of China's Party Congress can feel like an endless exercise in reading the tea leaves.

25 October 2017 Preliminary GDP Will Put Little Pressure on the MPC to Raise Rates (Publication Centre)

Today's preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP is the last major economic report to be released before the MPC's meeting on November 2.

25 Nov 2019 Deferring the December 15 Tariffs is not Alone Enough to Lift Growth (Publication Centre)

The weaker is the economy over the next few months, the more likely it is that Mr. Trump blinks and removes some--perhaps even all--the tariffs on Chinese imports.

25 May. 2016 German Domestic Demand Growth to Slow in Q2, After a Solid Q1 (Publication Centre)

Detailed GDP data yesterday showed that the domestic German economy fired on all cylinders in the first quarter. Real GDP rose 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, up from 0.3% in Q4, lifted by strong investment and spending. Domestic demand rose 0.8%, only slightly slower than the 0.9% ris e in the fourth quarter. Net exports fell 0.3%, a bit better than in Q4, when gross exports fell outright.

25 March 2019 The Fundamentals are at Odds with the Curve, no Recession Near (Publication Centre)

The commentariat was very excited Friday by the inversion of the curve, with three-year yields dipping to 2.24% while three-month bills yield 2.45%.

25 Nov 2019 Japanese October Retail Sales Likely Plunged, Despite Stable Inflation (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation was stable at 0.2% in October, despite the sales tax hike, thanks to a combination of offsetting measures from the government and a deepening of energy deflation.

25 November. 2016 German GDP Growth Will Rebound in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in Germany confirmed that the economy slowed in Q3, but also added to the evidence that growth will rebound in Q4. The second estimate for Q3 showed that real GDP rose 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, slowing from a 0.4% gain in Q2.

25 Oct 2019 Mortgage Lending to Remain Stable, Despite the Brexit Headwinds (Publication Centre)

The mortgage market is continuing to hold up surprisingly well, given the calamitous political backdrop.

25 Oct 2019 Capex is Falling, and a Huge Aircraft Inventory Overhang is Building (Publication Centre)

The gaps in the third quarter GDP data are still quite large, with no numbers yet for September international trade or the public sector, but we're now thinking that growth likely was less than 11⁄2%.

25 Oct 2019 A Dignified Farewell by Mr. Draghi, All Eyes Now on Ms. Lagarde (Publication Centre)

The ECB made no changes to policy yesterday, leaving its key refinancing and deposit rates unchanged, at 0.00% and -0.5%, and confirmed that it will restart QE in November at €20B per month.

23 Mar 2020 The Growth of European Covid-19 Cases Slowed Sharply Yesterday (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of new coronavirus infections across Europe slowed yesterday, in some cases quite markedly. We can quibble about the reliability of the data in individual countries, given variations in testing regimes, but the picture is strikingly uniform.

25 January 2019 Reality will Hit the Bank of Korea Hard Expect a Year-Long Pause (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday left its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.75%, at its first meeting of the year.

24 November 2017 Slowdown in German Domestic Demand Will Reverse in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed GDP report in Germany showed net exports propelled GDP growth to a cyclical high last quarter.

24 April 2018 Q1 GDP to Reinforce the Case for the MPC to Delay in May (Publication Centre)

One way or another, the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP--due Friday--will have a big market impact, following Mark Carney's warning last week that a May rate hike is not a done deal.

24 August 2017 Markets Will Look in Vain for QE Clues from Mr. Draghi this Week (Publication Centre)

Eurozone investors are fixed on Mr. Draghi's speaking schedule this week, looking for hints of the ECB's future policy path.

24 August 2017 Second Estimate of Q2 GDP to Show U.K. Missing out on G7 Boom (Publication Centre)

We expect today's second estimate of Q2 GDP to confirm that the U.K. has been the slowest growing G7 economy this year.

24 Oct 2019 A Standing Ovation for Mr. Draghi Today as he Departs the ECB (Publication Centre)

Today's ECB meeting will mainly be a victory lap for Mr. Draghi--it is the president's last meeting before Ms. Lagarde takes over--rather than the scene of any major new policy decisions.

24 Oct 2019 Core Capex Orders aren't as Weak as the ISM Suggests... Yet (Publication Centre)

Core durable goods orders have not weakened as much as implied by the ISM manufacturing survey, as our first chart shows, but it is risky to assume this situation persists.

24 Sept 2019 September Retail Sales Enjoying a Temporary Tariff-Beating Boost? (Publication Centre)

The rational thing to do when the price of a consumer good you are considering buying is thought likely to rise sharply in the near future is to buy it now, provided that the opportunity cost of the purchase--the interest income foregone on the cash, or the interest charged if you finance the purchase with credit--is less than the expected increase in the price.

24 April 2017 It Looks Like Mr. Macron Against Mrs. Le Pen in the Second Round (Publication Centre)

The initial "official estimate" of the French presidential election--released 20.00 CET--suggest that the runoff will be between the centre-right Emmanuel Macron and Front National's Marine Le Pen. This is consistent with opinion polls. The average of five early estimates also suggests that Mr. Macron won the vote with 23.1% of the vote against Mrs. Le Pen's 22.5%.

24 October 2017 EZ Consumers' Spending Slowed in Q3, but Should Rebound in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone consumers' spending jumped in Q2, but we are pretty certain that a slowdown in retail sales constrained growth in Q3.

24 Feb 2020 Virus-Induced Nerves will Persist until Non-China Cases Decline (Publication Centre)

While we were out last week, market nervousness over the Covid-19 outbreak intensified, though most key indicators of the spread of the infection continued to improve.

24 May 2019 Boeing's Woes are Hitting Durable Goods Orders - the Core is OK, Just (Publication Centre)

A grim-looking headline durable goods orders number for April seems inevitable today, given the troubles at Boeing.

24 Jan 2020 How Soon will the Chancellor Use his Ample Fiscal Headroom? (Publication Centre)

The public finances are in better health than appeared to be the case a few months ago.

24 January 2019 Future Fiscal Stimulus Is Still Secure, Despite Worse Borrowing Data (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the trend in public borrowing deteriorated sharply late last year. In the three months to December, borrowing on the main "PSNB ex ." measure, which excludes banks owned by the public sector, was a trivial £0.3B, or 1.6%, lower than in the same months of 2017.

24 Jan 2020 Ms. Lagarde Treads Water as the ECB Formally Unveils its Review (Publication Centre)

The ECB conformed to expectations today, at least on a headline level.

24 July 2019 If a Downturn Materialises, Households Will Feel its Full Force (Publication Centre)

Our base case remains that the slowdown in quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to about zero in Q2 is just a blip, and that the economy will regain momentum in Q3 and sustain it well into 2020.

24 July 2020 U.K. Equities are Becoming Ever More Unloved, Chiefly Due to Brexit (Publication Centre)

U.K. equities are falling ever further out of favour.

24 Jan 2020 China's Economy is More Exposed to Deadly Disease now, than in 2003 (Publication Centre)

We can't yet know how bad the spread of the coronavirus from the Chinese city of Wuhan will be.

24 Mar. 2016 EZ Consumers' Spending Is Slowing, but Won't Collapse (Publication Centre)

All the evidence indicates that growth in Eurozone consumers' spending is slowing. We think data today will show that the advance GfK consumer sentiment index in Germany was unchanged at 9.5 in April, but the headline index does not correlate well with spending. The "business expectations" index is better, and while it likely will increase slightly, our first chart shows that it continues to signal a slowdown in consumers' spending growth.

24 June 2019 Capex and Stock Market Fears Explain the Fed's Itchy Trigger-Finger (Publication Centre)

The apparent softness of business capex is worrying the Fed.

23 September. 2016 How to Read the Split FOMC's Confusing Thought Processes (Publication Centre)

Over the past few days we have written about the difference between the Fed's tactics--signalling rate hikes and then choosing not to act in the face of weaker data--and its strategy, which is to normalize rates in the expectation that inflation will head to 2% in the medium-term.

24 Sept 2020 Near-Real-Time Data Signal Fading Consumer Services Activity (Publication Centre)

Business surveys released this week suggest the economic recovery decelerated in early September.

23 May 2019 Did the Main EZ Survey Data Take a Further Tumble in May (Publication Centre)

Today's EZ calendar is a busy one.

25 February 2019 Manufacturing Continues to Weaken, no Floor Yet in Sight (Publication Centre)

Last week's data added yet more weight to our view that manufacturing is in deep trouble, and that the bottom has not yet been reached.

25 Feb. 2016 Huge Upside Risk for Durable Orders as Aircraft Sales Rebound (Publication Centre)

Today's headline durable goods orders number for January is likely to blast through the consensus forecast, +2.7%. We expect a 6.5% jump, comfortably reversing December's 5.0% drop.

23 March 2018 Don't Over-Interpret the Latest Soft Survey Data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of economic data in the Eurozone added to the evidence that economic momentum is slowing.

25 February 2019 The IFO is still Bleak, but the German GDP Data are Nuanced (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data in Germany left markets with a confused picture of the Eurozone's largest economy.

23 Mar 2020 We're Updating our Forecasts, Take them With a Pinch of Salt (Publication Centre)

Economists' forecasts are changing almost as quickly as market prices these days, and not for the better.

25 January 2019 How Would an Extension of Article 50 Affect the MPC's Rate Hike Plans? (Publication Centre)

MPs look set to take a decisive step next Tuesday towards removing the risk of a calamitous no-deal Brexit at the end of March.

23 Mar. 2015 Manufacturing remains the key driver of the EZ business cycle (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy is becoming increasingly service-oriented. The private services sector has contributed just over 50% of gross value added-- GVA -- in the past three years, up from 44% in the seven years before the crash of 2008.

25 Feb 2020 The Fed will Blink if Markets have Many More Days Like Yesterday (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's stock market bloodbath stands in contrast to the U.S. economic data, most of which so far show no impact from the Covid-19 outbreak.

23 May 2019 Japanese Trade is Struggling, even Without Tariff Rises (Publication Centre)

Japanese policymakers will have been scouring yesterday's data for signs that the trade situation is improving.

25 Feb 2020 EZ Markets are Now Seriously Worried about Coronavirus (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a watershed moment for investors.

25 Feb 2020 Don't Expect the BoK to Jump the Gun with Counter-Virus Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea is likely to keep its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.25%, at its meeting this week.

24 September 2018 Battle Lines are Drawn Between the EU and U.K. over Brexit (Publication Centre)

EU negotiations tend to go down to the wire; and last week's summit in Salzburg, and Theresa May's statement on Friday, suggest that the Brexit negotiations will do just that.

23 Oct 2020 Reforms to the Job Support Scheme will Keep a Lid on Unemployment (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor's alterations to the Job Support Scheme--JSS--yesterday were substantial enough to reduce meaningfully the scale of job losses ahead.

25 Feb 2020 Inflation in Brazil and Mexico is Tame, but the Virus is a Real Threat (Publication Centre)

Brazil's inflation rate remained well under control over the first half of February.

25 Feb 2020 Markets Look Complacent About the Outcome of E.U. Trade Talks (Publication Centre)

We find it remarkable, after the market volatility induced by the two Brexit deadlines in 2019, that investors do not foresee another bump in the road at the end of this ye ar, when the Brexit transition period is due to end.

23 May. 2016 Will Profit Margins in Germany be Squeezed by Higher Wages? (Publication Centre)

Margins for German manufacturing firms remained depressed at the start of the second quarter. The headline PPI rose 0.1% month-to-month in April, pushing the year-over-year rate down marginally to -3.1% from a revised -3.0% in March. Falling energy prices are the key driver of the overall decline in the PPI.

23 Oct 2019 Mr. Macron is Blowing the Budget in France, it's Working, for now (Publication Centre)

The prospect of fiscal stimulus in the euro area-- ostensibly to "help" the ECB reach its inflation target-- remains a hot topic for investors and economists.

26 August. 2016 Early GDP Estimates Often Fail to Register Turning Points (Publication Centre)

Today's second estimate of Q2 GDP likely will restate the preliminary estimate that quarter-onquarter growth picked up to 0.6%, from 0.4% in Q1. Over the last two decades, the second estimate of GDP has differed from the preliminary estimate just 38% of the time.

26 August. 2016 EZ Economic Bulls Checked by IFO and INSEE Business Surveys (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey in Germany was a nasty downside surprise for markets. The business climate index slipped to 106.2 in August, from 108.3 in July, well below the consensus forecast for a modest rise. In addition, the expectations index slid ominously to 100.1, from a revised 102.1 in July.

27 March 2019 All Set for a Rebound in German Consumption Growth in H1 (Publication Centre)

German retail and consumer sentiment data for March have been mixed this week, but broadly support our call that growth in consumption should pick up soon.

27 March 2017 Stronger Global Growth set to Boost U.S. Export Performance (Publication Centre)

It has been difficult to be an optimist about U.S. international trade performance in recent years. The year-over-year growth rate of real exports of goods and services hasn't breached 2% in a single quarter for two years.

27 Mar 2020 Pre-Virus Q1 Data in Brazil and Mexico Supported More Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus pandemic looks set to spread rapidly throughout LatAm.

27 Mar 2020 India Declares War on Covid-1, an H1 Recession Looks Inevitable (Publication Centre)

India's government imposed a three-week nationwide lockdown on March 25 to combat the increasingly rapid spread of Covid-19.

27 May 2020 Is it Time for Germany to Lead the Eurozone Economy Again (Publication Centre)

This week's detailed Q1 GDP data confirmed that the German economy is in dire straits, alongside its euro area peers, but there's a silver lining.

27 May 2020 Japan's April Activity Likely Dropped off a Cliff, How Bad was it (Publication Centre)

Japan's all-industry activity index dropped by 3.8% month-on-month in March, worse than the 0.7% slip in February.

27 Nov 2019 The German Consumer is Doing Fine, but Risks Loom in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report in the EZ showed that consumer sentiment in Germany improved mid-way through the fourth quarter.

27 Nov 2019 Japan's October Retail Sales will Show Tax Hike Volatility (Publication Centre)

Japan's retail sales data--due out on Thursday-- have been badly affected by the October tax hike.

27 Nov 2019 Housing Market Activity will Spring Back Early Next Year (Publication Centre)

Political uncertainty is starting to dampen housing market activity again.

27 June 2019 Are Rising Jobless Claims a Drag on German Consumer Sentiment (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's consumer sentiment data provided further evidence of a strengthening French economy, amid signs of cracks in the otherwise solid German economy.

27 July 2020 Don't Be Fooled by Temporary Strength in Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

June's surge in retail sales is not a sign that households' total spending is zipping back to pre- downturn levels.

27 Jan 2020 CPI Health Insurance is Unstable, But Rapid Gains are More Likely than Not (Publication Centre)

Forecasting the health insurance component of the CPI is a mug's game, so you'll look in vain for hard projections in this note.

27 February 2019 Mrs. May's No-Deal Brexit U-turn Demonstrates Remainers' Leverage (Publication Centre)

Sterling has appreciated sharply over the last two weeks and yesterday briefly touched its highest level against the euro since May 2017.

27 February 2019 Consumer Sentiment Signal better EZ Consumption Data in H1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's consumer sentiment data in the two major euro area economies were mixed, but they still support our view that a rebound in EZ consumption growth is underway.

27 Jan 2020 Mexico's IGAE Index Points to a Further Dip in GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The dovish members of Banxico's board garnered further support on Friday for prolonging the current easing monetary cycle over coming meetings.

27 Jan 2020 Who are the Biggest Casualties of China's Travel Curbs (Publication Centre)

On Friday last week, the Chinese authorities suspended sales of domestic and international tours, in an effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus, which started in Wuhan.

27 July 2020 Economic Momentum has Stalled, GDP Could Easily Fall in August (Publication Centre)

With just five days of July remaining, it seems likely that the trends in most of the key near-real-time indicators will end the month close to the levels seen at the end of June.

27 January 2017 Will Mr. Trump Single out Germany for its Large Trade Surplus? (Publication Centre)

The uncertainty over the new U.S. administration's economic policies new is clouding the outlook for the Eurozone economy. The combination of loose fiscal policy and tight monetary policy in the U.S. should be positive for the euro area economy, in theory. It points to accelerating U.S. growth--at least in the near term--wider interest rate differentials and a stronger dollar. In a " traditional" global macroeconomic model, this policy mix would lead to a wider U.S. trade deficit, boosting Eurozone exports.

27 Jan. 2015 Don't Panic over Greece, a solution between the Troika and Syriza will be found (Publication Centre)

The landslide victory by anti-austerity party Syriza in Greece this weekend will increase uncertainty in coming months. The coalition between Syriza and the Independent Greeks will prove a tough negotiating partner for the EU as both parties are strongly in favor of pushing the Troika to significant concessions on any future bailout terms this year.

27 Nov 2019 The GM Strike Likely Depressed October Orders, Core Soft too? (Publication Centre)

Today's wave of data will bring new information on the industrial sector, consumers, the labor market, and housing, as well as revisions to the third quarter GDP numbers.

27 November 2017 China Instigates Another Friday Reform, Import Tariffs are Cut (Publication Centre)

Since the Party Congress last month, China has made a number of bold moves in multiple policy fields, with a regularity that almost implies the authorities are working through a list.

28 Feb 2020 The Fed Can't Stand by as Markets Melt, Expect Easing at Any Time (Publication Centre)

The Fed will soon have to step in to try to put a firebreak in the stock market.

28 Feb 2020 The Bank of Korea Hangs Tough, Targeted Measures Only for Now (Publication Centre)

The BoK surprised markets and commentators by keeping rates unchanged at 1.25% yesterday, rather than cutting to 1.0%.

28 Feb 2020 EZ Money Growth is still a Glimmer of Light amid Market Panic (Publication Centre)

Headline M3 money supply growth in the Eurozone was steady as a rock at around 5% year-over-year between 2014 and the end of 2017.

28 Aug 2019 Consumers are Very Happy About the Labor Market: Can it Last? (Publication Centre)

We were happy to see upside surprises from both sides of the domestic economy yesterday, but we doubt that the August readings from both the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey and the Richmond Fed business survey can hold.

28 February 2017 What Will the President say About Taxes and Spending? (Publication Centre)

It seems pretty clear from press reports that the White House budget, which reportedly will be released March 14, will propose substantial increases in defense spending, deep cuts to discretionary non- defense spending, and no substantive changes to entitlement programs. None of this will come as a surprise.

28 February 2018 Powell Plays the Continuity Card, Mostly, but he's Bullish on Growth (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell sounded a lot like Janet Yellen yesterday, at least in terms of substance.

28 Jan 2020 A Real Housing Market Recovery is Finally Taking Root (Publication Centre)

Housebuilders were one of the biggest winners from the post-election relief rally in U.K. equity prices.

28 February 2019 The Probable Delay to Brexit Makes a Q3 Rate Hike a Closer Call (Publication Centre)

We have no choice but to revise down our forecast for GDP growth in Q2, now that the threat of a no-deal Brexit likely will hang over the economy beyond March, probably for three more months.

28 February 2019 Expect Underwhelming Q4 GDP Growth Data Today Q1 Likely Worse (Publication Centre)

We expect to learn today that the economy expanded at a 2.1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, slowing from 3.4% in the third.

28 April 2017 Preliminary GDP Estimate Likely to Reveal Q1 Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP looks set to show that the economy started 2017 on a weak footing. We share the consensus view that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth slowed to 0.4%, from 0.7% in Q4.

28 Apr. Don't Pin Your Hopes on a Post-Referendum Rebound (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 reflects more than just Brexit risk. The intensifying fiscal squeeze, the uncompetitiveness of U.K. exports, and the lack of spare labour suggest that the U.K.'s recovery now is stuck in a lower gear.

27 October. 2016 Consumers' Spending in Germany will Continue to Slow, Modestly (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's consumer confidence report in Germany was soft, in contrast to surging business sentiment data earlier in the week.

27 Oct 2020 Japan is Trying to "Live with Covid", but Spending is Hitting a Ceiling (Publication Centre)

Japan and Korea dealt with their second waves of Covid-19 in the third quarter in completely different ways.

27 November 2018 In the Shale New World, Lower Oil Prices Mean Slower U.S. Growth (Publication Centre)

The last time oil prices fell sharply, from mid-2014, when WTI peaked at $107, through early 2016, when the price reached just $26, the U.S. economy slowed dramatically.

27 Sept 2019 Are the Balance of Risks Shifting for the Better in the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Money supply data are sending an increasingly contrarian, and bullish, signal for the euro area economy.

27 Sept 2019 Banxico Cuts the Main Rate, and its Dovish Tone will Persist (Publication Centre)

Banxico cut its policy rate by 25bp to 7.75% yesterday, as was widely expected, following August's 25bp easing.

27 September 2016 The Surging IFO Points to a Resilient German Economy in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey in Germany was a big relief for markets, in light of recent soft data. The main business climate index jumped to 109.5 in September, from 106.3 in August, the biggest month-to-month increase since 2010.

27 Sept 2019 Tempering Our Optimism on the Industrial Rebound in Q3 (Publication Centre)

We're revising down our forecast for quarteron-quarter GDP growth in Q3 to 0.3%, from 0.4%, in response to signs that the rebound in industrial production is shaping up to b e smaller than we had anticipated.

27 Sept 2019 Core PCE Inflation is Set to Breach the Target in Q1, as Tariffs Bite (Publication Centre)

All eyes today will be on the core PCE deflator for August, which we think probably rose by a solid 0.2%.

27 February 2017 How Quickly Will Core Capital Goods Orders Rebound? (Publication Centre)

Orders for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft, have risen in six of the past seven months. In the fourth quarter, orders rose at a 4.7% annualized rate, in contrast to the 5.3% year-over-year plunge in the first half of the year.

27 Feb 2020 Yesterday's Measures from China Help Avert Full-Blown Debt Crisis (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's State Council meeting significantly expanded support to the economy, through a number of channels.

26 June 2018 GDP Growth will Slow Sharply in Argentina in the Second Half (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that the Argentinian economy was resilient at the start of the year, but downside risks to growth have increased.

26 July. 2016 The German Economy Stalled in Q2, But Should Rebound in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The German statistical office will supply a confidential estimate to Eurostat for this week's advance euro area Q2 GDP data. Our analysis suggests this number will be grim, and weigh on the aggregate EZ estimate. Our GDP model, which includes data for retail sales, industrial production and net exports, forecasts that real GDP in Germany contracted 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, after a 0.7% jump in Q1.

26 July 2017 Preliminary GDP to Confirm Growth Remained Sluggish in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Today's preliminary estimate of GDP likely will show that the economy continued to struggle in response to high inflation, further fiscal austerity and Brexit uncertainty.

26 January 2018 Q4 Growth Likely Near 3%, but Real Uncertainties in Trade, Inventories (Publication Centre)

need to add docMea culpa: We failed to spot the press release from the Commerce Department announcing the delay of the release of the advance December trade and inventory data, due to the government shutdown.

26 June 2019 Durable Goods Orders Under Pressure, but no Meltdown (Publication Centre)

I need to ask your indulgence today, because the release of the durable goods and advance international trade reports coincides with my elder daughter's college graduation ceremony.

26 June 2019 Services and Construction Will Lift French Capex in Q2, and in H2 (Publication Centre)

The INSEE's manufacturing sentiment data in France are slightly confusing at the moment.

26 Mar 2020 The Terrible Extent of the Covid-19 Damage is Now Emerging (Publication Centre)

Analysing the EZ sentiment data at the moment is a bit like a surveyor being called out to assess the damage on a property after a flood.

26 June 2020 Sterling Unlikely to Break Out Decisively from its Recent Range (Publication Centre)

Sterling's rough first half of this year--cable has depreciated to $1.24, from $1.33 at the end of 2019--is hard to reconcile with its normal macroeconomic determinants.

26 June 2020 German Consumption is on the Mend, but Q2 won't be Pretty (Publication Centre)

Looking beyond the potential hit from the lockdown in North Rhine-Westphalia, German consumer sentiment is improving steadily.

26 Jan. 2015 Greece needs debt relief regardless of new government (Publication Centre)

The first exit poll published at 18.00 CET on Sunday evening points to a landslide victory for Syriza, and the real possibility that the party could form a majority government. Counter-intuitively, the prospects for Syriza here depend upon how the smaller parties do.

26 February 2019 No-Deal Brexit Risk Likely Will Fall Further this Week (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister's announcement on Sunday that the meaningful vote in parliament on her Brexit deal will be delayed from this week, until March 12, came as no surprise after a series of prior postponements.

23 Jan 2020 Korea's Scorching Q4 GDP will be Downgraded, but the Recovery is On (Publication Centre)

GDP growth in Korea surprised to the upside in the fourth quarter, with the economy expanding by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, three times as fast as in Q3, and the biggest increase in nine quarters.

23 Jan 2020 Leading Indicators are being Hit by the Trade War: Ignore, for Now (Publication Centre)

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators appears to signal that the U.S. economy is plunging headlong into recession.

31 May 2017 A Consumer Rebound is Underway, but Watch out for Healthcare Costs (Publication Centre)

In the wake of April's 0.2% increase in real consumers' spending, and the upward revisions to the first quarter numbers, we now think that second quarter spending is on course to rise at an annualized rate of about 3.5%.

26 Feb 2020 Britain Less Vulnerable than Most to a Coronavirus-led Downturn (Publication Centre)

News that the Covid-19 virus has spread to more countries frayed investors' nerves further yesterday, with the FTSE 100 eventually residing 5.3% below its Friday close.

26 Feb 2020 Germany Faces Coronavirus Uncertainty in a Weakened State (Publication Centre)

The German economy finished last year on the back foot.

26 February 2019 A U.S. China Trade Deal is in Sight Trump's Huawei U-Turn is Positive (Publication Centre)

Nothing is done until it's done, and, in the case of Sino-U.S. trade talks, even if a deal is reached, the new normal is that tensions will be bubbling in the background.

26 Feb 2020 Time for a Further Downgrade of Chinese Q1 GDP (Publication Centre)

In our Webinar--see here--we laid out scenarios for Chinese GDP in Q1 and for this year.

26 Feb 2020 The Fed's "Too Soon to Tell" Line Won't Hold if Markets Keep Falling (Publication Centre)

The spread of the Covid-19 virus remains the key issue for markets, which were deeply unhappy yesterday at reports of new cases in Austria, Spain and Switzerland, all of which appear to be connected to the cluster in northern Italy.

26 Mar. 2015 Survey Data Point to a Recovery for German Investment in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The IFO survey released yesterday provides further evidence that the cyclical recovery in Germany's economy continued in the current quarter. The headline business climate index rose to 107.9 in March from 106.8 in February, lifted by increases in both the current assessments and expectations index.

26 March 2019 A Few Bright Spots in the IFO, but Still an Overall Subdued Story (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO offered a rare upside surprise in the German survey data.

26 September 2018 Is the French Economy Still on Track For a Rebound in H2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of French business sentiment data was mixed.

26 Sept 2019 Another Month, Another Increase in French Consumer Confidence (Publication Centre)

Economic news in the Eurozone, and virtually everywhere else, has been mostly downbeat in the past few months, but French consumers are doing great.

26 October. 2016 The German Economy Fired on All Cylinders at the Start of Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey confirmed that the private business sector in Germany was off to a flying start in Q4. The headline business climate index rose to 110.5 in October, from 109.5 in September, lifted mainly by a rise in the expectations index to a 30-month high of 106.5.

27 Apr 2020 Brazil and Mexico are Failing to Respond Effectively to the Covid Hit (Publication Centre)

Economic and financial conditions have worsened substantially in Brazil in recent weeks, due mainly to Covid-19 and the sharp deterioration of the global economy.

27 Aug 2019 Trump is Making it Impossible for China to Negotiate (Publication Centre)

It's pretty clear now that the President is not a reliable guide to what's actually happening in the China trade war, or what will happen in the future.

27 Feb 2020 Treat Surveys Pointing to Stronger Growth in Capex With Scepticism (Publication Centre)

The stagnation in business investment since 2016 has been key to the slowdown in the overall economy since the E.U. referendum.

27 Feb 2020 Survey Data in France were Stable and Solid Midway through Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Covid-19 scare can be split into two stages, the initial outbreak in China, concentrated in Wuhan, and the now-worrying signs that clusters are forming in other parts of the world, primarily in South Korea, the Middle East and Italy.

27 Feb 2020 Non-China Covid-19 Spread is Slowing but Big Market Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of Covid-19 cases outside China appears to have peaked, for now, but we can't yet have any confidence that this represents a definitive shift in the progress of the epidemic.

26 October 2018 Plunging Korean Investment Activity Cancels-out Gains Elsewhere in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Korea's GDP growth in Q3 was a miss. Quarter- on-quarter growth was unchanged at 0.6%, below the consensus for a 0.8% rise.

26 October 2018 It Would Take a Lot to Turn the ECB Away from Ending QE in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The ECB kept its cool yesterday, at the headline level, amid crashing stock markets, volatile BTPs and souring economic data.

26 Nov 2019 The IFO in Germany Still Tells a Story of Imminent Recession (Publication Centre)

The November IFO report suggests that the headline indices are on track for a tepid recovery in Q4 as a whole, but the central message is still one of downside risks to growth

26 Nov 2019 The Export Collapse Signalled by the Late Summer ISM has been Averted (Publication Centre)

We were terrified by the plunge in the ISM manufacturing export orders index in August and September, which appeared to point to a 2008-style meltdown in trade flows.

26 Nov 2019 Hong Kong Politely Suggests that Beijing Reconsider its Stance (Publication Centre)

Hong Kong delivered a resounding landslide victory to pro-Democracy parties in district council elections over the weekend.

26 November 2018 Is a May Rate Hike Nailed-on if a No-Deal Brexit Is Avoided (Publication Centre)

The Bank of England will be dragged into the political arena on Thursday, when it sends the Treasury Committee its analysis of the economic impact of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration, as well as a no-deal, no- transition outcome.

26 November 2018 Tariffs are Hurting the U.S. and China Escalation Would be Excruciating (Publication Centre)

It is becomingly increasingly clear that the trade war with China is hurting manufacturers in both countries.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises (Publication Centre)

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three months.

26 Oct 2020 Outright CPI Deflation in Japan is Here, Expect an Exit by Mid-2021 (Publication Centre)

Outright CPI deflation likely already has taken hold in Japan. Friday's data showed inflation falling to zero percent in September, from 0.2% in the previous month.

26 Oct 2020 EZ Q4 GDP Growth Forecasts Fall, the Only Question is, How Much? (Publication Centre)

The headline EZ data added to the evidence of a weakening recovery while we were away.

28 Jan 2020 Containment Measures Could Mean a Quarterly Fall in Chinese GDP (Publication Centre)

As the situation with the coronavirus develops, and we gain more information on the authorities' response, it's becoming clear that the damage to Q1 GDP is going to be nasty.

5 May 2017 Surveys Signal a Solid Start to Q2, but "Hard" Data Remain Weak (Publication Centre)

Activity surveys picked up across the board in April, offering hope that the slowdown in GDP growth--to just 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q1-- will be just a blip. The headline indicators of surveys from the CBI, European Commission, Lloyds Bank and Markit all improved in April and all exceeded their 2004-to-2016 averages.

8 Jan 2020 Will EZ Inflation be Higher, and Stickier, than Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

The ink has hardly dried on economists' and the ECB's inflation projections for 2020, but we suspect that some forecasters are already considering ripping up the script.

8 Jan 2020 Is this as Good as it Gets for the RMB from a Trade Deal Perspective (Publication Centre)

The trade war with the U.S. has taken its toll on the RMB.

8 Jan 2020 Improving External Conditions Add to Colombia's Economic Resilience (Publication Centre)

Colombia was the fastest growing LatAm economy in 2019, due mostly to strong domestic demand, offsetting a sharp fall in key exports.

8 Jan 2020 Higher Oil Prices won't Stop the Economy Recovering this Year (Publication Centre)

The $10 increase in the price of Brent crude oil over the last three months to $68 is an unhelpful, but manageable, drag on the U.K. economy's growth prospects this year.

8 January 2018 Brazil's Industrial Sector and Foreign Trade to Remain Resilient in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Survey data have been signalling a relatively resilient Brazilian economy in the last few months, despite intensified political risk, and hard data are beginning to confirm this story.

8 January 2019 A Story for Everyone in Confusing Q4 German Manufacturing Data (Publication Centre)

The German economy's engine room continues to stutter.

8 July 2020 German Manufacturing Remained Tepid in May, was June Better (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's manufacturing data in Germany followed the lead from Monday's relatively underwhelming new orders report; see here.

8 July 2019 Will the Weakness of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue? (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirmed that Mexico's economy stumbled in the first half of the year, hurt by a temporary shocks in both the industrial and services sectors, and heightened political uncertainty, due to policy mistakes at the outset of AMLO's presidency.

8 July 2019 Slump in German Manufacturing isn't Over Yet...Far From It (Publication Centre)

The German manufacturing data remain terrible. Friday's factory orders report showed that new orders plunged 2.2% month-to-month in May, convincingly cancelling out the 1.1% cumulative increase in March and April.

8 February 2018 Housing Market Wobble Highlights that the MPC Can't Hike Quickly (Publication Centre)

Markets expect the MPC to shelve November's guidance--that interest rates need to rise only twice in the next three years--at today's meeting.

8 February 2018 Japanese Wage Cost Pressures are Building, but the Yen is Competitive (Publication Centre)

Japanese firms hand out a significant portion of labour compensation through bonuses, with the largest lump awarded in December.

8 April 2019 Recovering from the Shock of Japan's Wage Data... it's Not All Bad (Publication Centre)

Officially, Japanese wages have been falling year- over-year since January, marking a break from the gradual acceleration over the past 18 or so months.

8 Apr. 2015 Slowly does it for upturn in the German manufacturing sector (Publication Centre)

German factory orders probably bounced a modest 0.3% month-to-month in February, equivalent to a 0.5% decline year-over-year. We expect private investment growth to have picked up in the first quarter, but leading indicators for the industrial sector in Germany are sending conflicting signals.

8 Apr 2020 More Solid Pre-Covid-19 Data in the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Hard data in the Eurozone continue to tell a story of a relatively bright pre-Covid-19 world.

8 Aug 2019 June GDP to Reassure that the Economy is Avoiding Recession (Publication Centre)

Friday's GDP report should show that the economy narrowly avoided contracting in Q2.

8 August 2017 Will Mexico's Economy Resilience Continue in the Second Half? (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy maintained its relatively strong momentum in Q2. The first estimate of Q2 GDP, released last week, confirmed that growth was resilient during the first half of this year, despite the confidence hit caused by domestic and external headwinds.

8 February 2018 Is the Acceleration in German Manufacturing Output Over? (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in Germany stumbled at the end of Q4. Data yesterday showed that output fell 0.6 month-to-month in December, though this drop has to be seen in light of the downwardly-revised 3.1% jump in November.

8 Dec. 2015 Productivity Growth Still too Weak to Prevent Inflation Rebound (Publication Centre)

By any yardstick, U.K. productivity growth has been terrible in recent years. Output per hour exceeded its pre-recession peak only in the second quarter of 2015, and it has grown at an average annual rate of just 0.6% this decade. U.S. productivity growth has been equally dismal since 2010. But the U.K.'s performance is more worrying, because the productivity slump during the recession suggested scope for a period of catch-up. In the U.S., by contrast, productivity surged during the recession as firms cut headcount sharply.

8 August 2018 Red Hot Japanese Wage Growth will Help the BoJ Unwind (Publication Centre)

We hadn't expected the scorching 3.6% year-over- year growth rate in Japan's June average wages

8 June 2018 Did German Manufacturers Take a Long Break in Q1 and Q2? (Publication Centre)

New orders data increasingly suggest that German manufacturers all but shut their production lines at the start of the year.

8 June 2020 Diving into China's Uneven Bounce, and India's Evolving Covid Strategy (Publication Centre)

China's post-Covid-19 economic recovery is becoming increasingly undeniable. But the more relevant questions now are the speed of its revival, and whether there are still any low-hanging fruit to pick.

8 November. 2016 Focus on the Improving Trend in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand for German manufacturing goods slipped at the end of Q3. Yesterday's report showed that factory orders fell 0.6% month-to-month in September, constrained by weakness in domestic demand and falling export orders to other EZ economies.

8 November 2017 Mexico's Leading Indicators Remain Strong Despite Mixed Hard Data (Publication Centre)

Recent economic indicators in Mexico have been mixed, distorted by temporary factors, including the effect of the natural disasters in late Q3. Private consumption has lost some momentum, hit by the lagged effect of high interest rates and inflation, as well as the earthquakes.

8 Nov 2019 The RMB Rally is Understandable, but Let's not Over-egg it (Publication Centre)

The RMB has been on a tear, as expectations for a "Phase One" trade deal have firmed.

8 Nov 2019 Inflation in Brazil Supports a Dovish BCB, Mexican Capex Rebounded (Publication Centre)

Headline inflation in Brazil remained low in October, and even breached the lower bound of the BCB's target range.

8 Oct 2019 A Few Bright Spots in the Still- Weak German New Orders Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's manufacturing data in Germany were poor, but not as weak as implied by the headline.

8 Oct 2019 Does China Want a Comprehensive Trade Deal with Trump (Publication Centre)

We have argued for a while that China and the U.S. will not reach a comprehensive trade deal until after the next election.

US Datanote: New Home Sales, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, but March and April, at least, will be grim.

23 February 2018 Even Q4's Modest GDP Growth Relied on Unsustainable Supports (Publication Centre)

U.K. activity data have consistently surprised to the downside over the last month.

8 Oct 2020 Don't Give up Hope of a Rebound in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data seemed to pour cold water on the idea of a sustained recovery in German manufacturing. Industrial production, including construction, fell by 0.2% in August driving the year-over-year rate down by 0.4pp, to -10.0%.

8 Nov 2019 About that German Recession in Q2 and Q3...It's is a Very Close Call (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in Germany endured another miserable quarter in Q3.

8 Nov 2019 Don't Expect the MPC to Maintain its Dovish Bias Next Year (Publication Centre)

Investors now see a 50/50 chance of the MPC cutting Bank Rate within the next nine months, following the slightly dovish minutes of the MPC's meeting, and its new forecasts.

8 June. 2015 Slowly Does it for German Manufacturing Upturn in Q2 (Publication Centre)

New orders data indicate that German manufacturing enjoyed a strong start to the second quarter. Factory orders rose 1.4% month-to-month in April, equivalent to a modest 0.4% gain yearover- year, down from a revised 2.0% in March. The numbers put new orders on track for a solid 1.8% quarter-on-quarter gain in Q2--assuming no change in May and June--but these data are volatile, making this estimate highly uncertain.

8 June 2020 Will the MPC Swap Its QE Machine Gun for a Bazooka? (Publication Centre)

So far, the MPC has been more timid with unconventional stimulus than other central banks. At the end of May, central bank reserves equalled 29.7% of four-quarter rolling GDP in the U.K., compared to 32.7% in the U.S. and 46.7% in the Eurozone.

8 June 2020 Mexico's Survey Data are on the Mend, but a Full Recovery is Distant (Publication Centre)

Economic conditions remain challenging in Mexico, despite a modest improvement in leading indicators. The usual surveys currently are not well-suited to capture the economy's upturn from the Covid-19 collapse.

8 June. 2016 EZ Domestic Demand Rose Solidly in Q1, but Will Slow in Q2 (Publication Centre)

The third estimate of euro area growth in the first quarter provides clear evidence that measuring GDP is not an exact science. Real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, accelerating from 0.4% in Q4. This latest estimate is higher than the previous estimate, 0.5%, but in line with the first calculation. Eurostat and all the large Eurozone economies now provide early estimates of GDP, before data for the full quarter is available.

8 March 2017 Focus on the Trend in German Factory Orders, to Retain Sanity (Publication Centre)

A setback in German manufacturing orders was coming after the jump at the end of 2016, but yesterday's headline was worse than we expected. Factory orders crashed 7.4% month-to-month in January, more than reversing the 5.4% jump in December. The year-over-year rate fell to -0.8% from a revised +8.0%. The decline was the biggest since 2009, but the huge volatility in domestic capital goods orders means that the headline has to be taken with a large pinch of salt.

8 May 2019 Manufacturing in Germany is Not Out of the Woods Yet (Publication Centre)

Demand in German manufacturing rebounded slightly at the end of Q1, though the overall picture for the sector remains grim.

8 May 2019 Chile's Economy Slowed in Q1, but Expect a Modest Q2 Rebound (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in Chile slowed in Q1, despite a relatively strong end to the quarter, and the chances of an accelerating recovery remains disappointingly low, due to both global and domestic headwinds.

8 May 2017 Rocky Commodity Markets Put LatAm FX under Temporary Stress (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets have done well in recent weeks on the back of upbeat investor risk sentiment, low volatility in developed markets and a relatively benign USD. A less confrontational approach from the U.S. administration to trade policy has helped too.

8 Apr 2020 February GDP Data to Show Little Pre-Virus Momentum (Publication Centre)

February's GDP report, released on Thursday, likely will show that the economy continued to struggle for momentum, despite the fillip to sentiment stemming from the general election.

7 September. 2016 Capex Rebounding in Q3, Except in the Housing Component (Publication Centre)

If you had asked us in the spring where the action would be in capital spending over the summer, we would have said that the housing component was the best bet. Right now, though, the opposite seems more likely, with housing likely to be the weakest component of capex.

7 Jan. 2015 The Sharp Slowdown In Chile's Economy Is Almost Over (Publication Centre)

Chile's economic outlook remains challenging. Overall, 2015 will likely mark the second consecutive year of disappointing growth, but it will be better than 2014, a year to forget.

7 Jan 2020 The Eurozone Services Sector is Still Holding its Own (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were solid across the board.

7 Jan 2020 Chinese CPI Inflation won't Budge Much on U.S.-Iran Tensions (Publication Centre)

Our chief economist, Ian Shepherdson, set out our initial thoughts on the rising tensions between U.S. and Iran here.

7 February 2019 Weakness in Exports Still Weighs on German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand for German manufacturing goods remained subdued at the end of Q4.

7 January 2019 Eurozone Headline Inflation will Fall Further in Coming Months (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone fell significantly last month, and probably will ease further in Q1.

7 July 2017 Production Likely Jumped in May, but Q2 GDP Still Will b e Soft (Publication Centre)

Markets likely will be particularly sensitive to May's industrial production and construction output figures, released today, as they will provide a guide to the strength of the preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP, released shortly before the MPC's key meeting on August 3.

7 July 2020 Don't Mistake Pent-up Demand for a Genuinely Strong Recovery (Publication Centre)

The next couple of months likely will see some activity data rebound to close to pre-Covid levels, fuelling hopes of a V-shaped recovery.

7 July 2020 Will the Weakness of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue in Q3? (Publication Centre)

Recent economic indicators in Mexico have been terrible. The worst of the recession seems to be over, but recent hard data have underscored the severity of the shock and made it clear that the recovery has a long way to go.

7 July 2017 The Soft and Hard Data Divide Persists in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

The hard numbers in Eurozone manufacturing continue to lag the sharp rise in the main surveys. Data yesterday showed that German factory orders rose 1.0% month-to-month in May, only partially rebounding from a downwardly revised 2.2% plunge in April.

7 February 2019 Industrial and Retail Sectors to Drive December GDP Dip (Publication Centre)

December's GDP report, released next Monday, likely will maintain the flow of negative news on the U.K. economy.

7 February 2017 Don't Be Fooled by Jump in German Factory Orders (Publication Centre)

German manufacturing is in good shape, but probably is not as strong as implied by yesterday's surge in new orders. Factory orders jumped 5.2% month-to-month in December, rebounding strongly after a downwardly revised 3.6% fall in November. December's jump was the biggest monthly increase in two years, but it was flattered by a leap in bulk investment goods orders, mainly in the domestic market and other EZ economies.

7 December 2018 German Manufacturing is Recovering, but Watch Out for Base Effects in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The tepid recovery in German manufacturing continued in at the start of Q4. Factory orders edged higher by 0.3% month-to-month in October, boosted by a 2.9% month-to-month increase in export orders, primarily for capital and intermediate goods in other EZ economies.

7 December 2017 Onwards and Upwards for New Orders in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand for German manufacturing goods remained firm at the start of Q4. Data yesterday showed that factory orders increased 0.5% month-to-month in October, helped by gains in both export and domestic activity.

7 Dec. 2015 German Factory Orders are Slowing, Despite October's Jump (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing activity in Germany rebounded at the start of the fourth quarter, following a miserable Q3. New orders jumped 1.8% month-to-month in October, lifted by increases in consumer and capital goods orders, both domestic and export. But the year-over-year rate fell to -1.4%, from a revised -0.7% in September, due to unfavorable base effects, and the three-month trend remained below zero. Our first chart shows that non-Eurozone export orders are the key drag, with export orders to other euro area economies doing significantly better.

7 December 2018 GDP to Stagnate Again in October, but Markets are Braced for the Worst (Publication Centre)

October's GDP report, released on Monday, might just manage to break through the wall of noise coming from parliament ahead of the key Brexit vote on Tuesday.

7 December. 2016 Steady as She Goes for the EZ Economy, Despite Political Turmoil (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed EZ GDP report showed that real output rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, the same pace as in Q2. The year-over-over rate rose marginally to 1.7% from 1.6%, trivially higher than the first estimate, 1.6%. The details showed that consumers' spending and public consumption were the key drivers of growth in Q3, offsetting a slowdown in net trade.

7 Feb 2020 December's Crash in German Factory Orders is an Outlier (Publication Centre)

Our hope for a year-end jump in German factory orders was laughably optimistic.

7 Feb 2020 Coronavirus Could be near-$100B Hit to Chinese GDP in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Nobody knows the damage China's virus- containment efforts will have on GDP, and we probably never will, for sure, given the opacity of the statistics.

7 Feb 2020 Are U.K. Equities Still Trading at a Big Brexit-related Discount? (Publication Centre)

The rally in U.K. equities immediately after the general election has done little to reverse the prolonged period of underperformance relative to overseas markets since the E.U. referendum in June 2016.

7 June 2018 Japanese Firms Have Hiked Pay to Retain Workers (Publication Centre)

Japan's average year-over-year wage growth slowed sharply in May, but this mainly was a correction of the April spike.

7 June 2019 GDP Likely Fell Again in April, But the Pain Will Be All in Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

April's GDP report, released on Monday, likely will add fuel to the fire of the re cent sharp decline in interest rate expectations.

7 Oct 2020 More Solid German Manufacturing Data, but Risks Loom in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that the recovery in German manufacturing picked up the pace midway through Q3. Factory orders jumped by 4.5% month-to-month in August, accelerating after a revised 3.3% gain in July.

7 Oct 2020 India's Two-Speed Recovery is at a Crossroads, Downside Risks Prevail (Publication Centre)

The changing face of India's post-lockdown economic recovery indicates that the initial bounce since the June reopening could soon stall.

7 Oct 2020 Capex Stabilizing in Mexico, Modest Inflation Pressures in the Andes (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirmed that investment in Mexico has been on the mend since June, but activity still remains depressed.

7 Sept 2020 Brazil's Industrial Recovery Gathered Speed in July, But Risks Abound (Publication Centre)

Brazilian industrial production data released last week were upbeat. Output rose 8.0% month-to-month in July, much better than the consensus forecast for a 5.9% increase.

7 Sept 2020 German Manufacturing is Back in Pole Position in the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that manufacturing in Germany improved further at the start of Q3. Factory orders increased by 2.8% month-to-month in July, lifting the year-over-year rate to -7.3% from a revised -10.6% in June.

7 September 2018 First Signs of EM Weakness in the Eurozone Hard Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's manufacturing data in German threw off a nasty surprise.

7 September 2017 Japanese Regular Wages Breaking out of a 20-year Stagnation? (Publication Centre)

Japanese labour cash earnings data threw analysts another curveball in July, falling 0.3% year-over-year. At the same time, June earnings are now said to have risen by 0.4%, compared with a fall of 0.4% in the initial print.

7 Sept. 2015 Mexico's Recovery In Place But Constrained By External Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Growth momentum in Mexico has improved marginally over the last few months after the soft patch during the first quarter, with business and households gaining confidence in the economic recovery. But the upswing has been rather modest, due to the volatility in global financial markets and the challenging external environment. The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated over recent months due to China's problems, and commodity prices remain under pressure. All these factors are now weighing on investors' confidence and hurting EM across asset classes.

7 Oct 2019 The Noose Tightens on the EZ, but a Recession is Still Unlikely (Publication Centre)

Data while we were away have intensified fears that the global, and by extension EZ, economy is slipping into recession.

7 Oct 2019 Business Investment is not Destined to Slump, Despite Brexit Risks (Publication Centre)

Make no mistake, business investment has been depressed by Brexit uncertainty over the last year.

7 March 2018 Will Snow Disruption Freeze the MPC in its Tracks? (Publication Centre)

Last week's heavy snowfall, which blighted the entire country, will depress GDP growth in Q1, making it harder for the MPC to read the economy.

7 March 2018 Brazil's Industrial Sector Remains Solid, Despite Slipping in January (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector was off to a soft-looking start in Q1, but the fall in January output was chiefly payback for an especially strong end to 2017.

7 March 2017 Can Italy's Economy Overcome Weak Real Wage Growth in 2017? (Publication Centre)

The Italian economy slowed at the end 2017, and it continues to underperform other major EZ economies. Real GDP rose 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, a bit slower than the 0.3% gain in Q3, pushing full-year growth up to a modest 1.0%. This compares poorly, though, with growth of 1.6% in the euro area as a whole.

7 Nov 2019 A Rare Batch of Good News in the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were mostly positive.

7 Nov 2019 GDP Likely Was Little Changed in September, Rounding off a Solid Q3 (Publication Centre)

The economic data calendar for next week is so congested that we need to preview early September's GDP report, released on Monday.

7 Oct 2019 After the RBI's Fifth Rate Cut, Food Prices will Force a December Pause (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted unanimously on Friday to cut interest rates at a fifth straight meeting, as expected.

7 November 2018 Should a 2019 General Election be the Base Case? (Publication Centre)

Speculation that another general election is imminent is rarely out of the news. At present, betting markets see about a 35% chance of another election in 2019, broadly the same chance as one in 2022, when it is currently scheduled to be held.

7 November 2018 Sentiment Surveys are Deteriorating in Mexico Texcoco Airport Effect (Publication Centre)

Recently released data in Mexico are sending weak signals for the business outlook, and the Texcoco airport saga won't help.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Downward revisions soften the blow from October's data.

U.S. Datanote: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, September (p) (Publication Centre)

In one line: The trend is softening; blame the trade war.

8 Sept 2020 Colombia's Inflation Will Remain Low in Q4 due to Weak Demand (Publication Centre)

CPI data in Colombia released on Saturday confirmed that inflation is well under control, due to plunging domestic demand on the back of Covid, and despite the lagged effect of the COP depreciation earlier this year.

9 June 2020 The Severity of the Recession will Keep Inflation Low in the Andes (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus outbreak has pushed inflation lower in the Andean economies as the shock drives them into the deepest recession on record.

8 October 2018 German Manufacturing Export Orders Probably Bottomed in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Friday's factory orders report in Germany provided a bit of relief amid the gloom in manufacturing.

8 Oct 2020 House Prices won't Remain at Current Levels, Unless the Treasury Intervenes (Publication Centre)

Data continue to show that the housing market ran hot over the summer, as buyers eager to change their lifestyles in response to Covid-19 rushed through purchases.

8 Sept 2020 Don't Give up Hope of a Rebound in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German manufacturing data were a damp squib. Industrial production, including construction, rose by 1.2% month-to-month in July, lifting the year- over-year rate by 1.4pp, to -10.0%, undershooting the consensus and our own expectation of a rise of 5%.

9 June 2020 Have Chinese Exports Avoided the Worst of the Covid Hit to Trade (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus jumped to a record high in May, defying expectations for a fall by spiking to $69.2B.

9 Apr 2020 How Will the Government Navigate its Way out of the Lockdown? (Publication Centre)

The lockdown in Britain that began two-and-a half weeks ago is starting to stem the number of new infections.

8 Sept 2020 July GDP to Show V-Shaped Recovery Remains Elusive (Publication Centre)

We expect July's GDP report, released on Friday, to show that overall output rose by about 7.0% month-to-month, bringing it to 11.5% below its pre-Covid peak.

9 June. 2015 A flying start to Q2 for German Industrial sector and exports (Publication Centre)

Economic reports released yesterday indicate that the German economy was off to a solid start early in the second quarter. Industrial production rose 0.9% month-to-month in April, equivalent to a 1.4% increase year-over-year, up from a revised tiny 0.2% gain in March. This is the biggest annual jump in production since July last year, but the underlying trend is turning up only slowly, in line with the moderate improvement in survey data this year.

9 Mar 2020 More Good News in the EZ, which Doesn't Mean Anything (Publication Centre)

Leave it to an economist to tell contradictory stories; German manufacturing orders, at the start of the year, rose at their fastest pace since 2014, but it doesn't mean anything.

9 May 2019 March GDP Likely to Continue the Run of Above-Consensus Prints (Publication Centre)

We're among a small minority of economists forecasting that GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in March.

9 May. Inflation Report Forecasts Likely to Be Overshadowed by Brexit Risks (Publication Centre)

This week's Inflation Report--now released alongside the MPC's decision and minutes of its meeting in a deluge of releases now known as "Super Thursday"--is likely to be a damp squib.

9 Oct 2019 Anaemic Growth in Chile and Low Inflation Warrants more Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

Chile's inflation outlook remains benign, allowing policymakers to cut interest rates if the economic recovery falters.

9 May 2019 China's Imports are U-Turning, but Exports Still Face Major Headwinds (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus collapsed unexpectedly in April, to $13.8B, from a trivially-revised $32.4B in March.

9 May 2019 A Solid Q1 in the Bag for Germany Now a Q2 Correction Looms (Publication Centre)

Industrial production data in Germany continued to defy the signal of doom and gloom from leading indicators.

9 Mar 2020 Tanking Japanese Overtime Points to a Technical Recession (Publication Centre)

Labour cash earnings in Japan ostensibly started the year strongly, jumping by 1.5% year-over-year in January, much better than December's 0.2% slip.

9 Mar 2020 The Covid-19 Hit Likely will Allow LatAm Banks to Cut Rates Soon (Publication Centre)

The Fed's 50bp rate cut last week, aiming to shield the U.S. economy against Covid-19, has opened the door for some central banks in LatAm to emulate the move.

9 Mar 2020 January GDP to Highlight Pre- Virus Momentum in Growth (Publication Centre)

January's GDP report, released on Wednesday, was set to be one of the most important data releases of this year, due to its role in providing the first official steer on the economy's post-election performance.

9 June 2020 Assessing the Magnitude of April's Collapse in GDP (Publication Centre)

April's GDP report probably will be the worst any of us will see in our lifetime.

9 June 2017 Inflation in Mexico will Stabilize Soon, Despite May's Ugly Headline (Publication Centre)

The Mexican inflation rate soared at the start of 2017, but this is yesterday's story; the headline will stabilize soon and will decline slowly towards the year-end. May data yesterday showed that inflation rose to 6.2%, from 5.8% in April. Prices fell 0.1% month-to-month unadjusted in May, driven mainly by lower non-core prices, which dropped by 1.3%, as a result of lower seasonal electricity tariffs.

9 July 2020 Checking-in on EZ Policy Stimulus, The Money is still Flowing (Publication Centre)

If you had predicted at the start of the year that the ECB balance sheet would leap by just over €1.5T in H1, you would have been laughed out of the room.

9 Jan 2020 Guess What, Manufacturing in Germany Remained Weak in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The German manufacturing sector appears to have settled into an equilibrium of sustained misery.

9 Dec 2019 The Consensus Looks too Downbeat on October GDP (Publication Centre)

The release of October's GDP report on Tuesday likely will be overshadowed by campaigning ahead of Thursday's general election.

9 Dec 2019 Japan's Fiscal Boost will Disappoint, Capacity Constraints are a Drag (Publication Centre)

In Friday's Monitor we analysed the draft Japanese budget, as reported by Bloomberg. We suggested that the GDP bang-for-government-expenditure- buck is likely to be less than that implied by the authorities' forecasts.

9 Jan 2020 Higher Investment Alone won't Solve the U.K.'s Productivity Problem (Publication Centre)

Productivity statistics released yesterday continued to paint a bleak picture. Output per worker rose by a mere 0.1% year-over-year in Q3, despite jumping by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter.

9 January 2017 The Eurozone Economy Likely Finished 2016 With a Bang (Publication Centre)

The slew of EZ economic data on Friday supports our view that the economy ended 2016. The Commission's economic sentiment index jumped to 107.8 in December from a revised 106.6 in November. The headline strength was due to a big increase in "business climate indicator" and higher consumer sentiment. In individual countries, solid numbers for German construction and French services sentiment were the stand-out details.

9 July 2018 May GDP Data will have the Final Word on an August Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

Mark Carney revealed last week that recent data had given him "greater confidence" that the weakness of Q1 GDP was almost entirely due to severe weather.

9 July 2018 Evidence is Mounting that German Manufacturing did Well in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production data in Germany added to the manufacturing optimism following the sharp rise in new orders--see here--reported earlier in the week.

9 January 2018 Ignore November Dip in German Factory Orders Trend is Still Rising (Publication Centre)

The upturn in German manufacturing orders waned slightly towards the end of 2017; factory orders fell 0.4% month-to-month in November.

9 Dec 2019 Germany's Economy is Still Either in, or Very Close to, Recession (Publication Centre)

The hard data in Germany took a turn for the worse at the start of Q4. The outlook for consumers' spending was dented by the October plunge in retail sales--see here-- and on Friday, the misery spilled over into manufacturing.

9 August. 2016 London Will Continue to Bear the Brunt of the Downturn (Publication Centre)

London has been the U.K.'s growth star for the last two decades. Between 1997 and 2014, yearover-year growth in nominal Gross Value Added averaged 5.4% in London, greatly exceeding the 4% rate across the rest of the country. Surveys since the referendum, however, indicate that the capital is at the sharp end of the post-referendum downturn.

9 April 2019 February GDP Data to Show Growth only Slightly Below Trend in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Economic data have yielded the limelight in recent months to Brexit news and, alas, we doubt that February's GDP data, released on Wednesday, will reclaim investors' attention.

9 April 2018 Q1 GDP Shaping up to be Weak, Leaving a May Rate Rise in Doubt (Publication Centre)

Most investors remain convinced that the MPC will raise Bank Rate when it meets next, on May 10.

9 July 2020 China's Q2 GDP Bounce was Solid, but Expect a Print Shy of Consensus (Publication Centre)

China's GDP report for the second quarter is due a week from today, and the prevailing wisdom is that the bounce-back was strong enough for headline growth to return to the black.

9 April 2019 PBoC Resists RMB Weakness, Despite Exports Threat (Publication Centre)

We aren't convinced that China's recovery is in train just yet.

9 April 2019 Small Business Sentiment Ought to be Rebounding Capex Plans too (Publication Centre)

The recovery in small business sentiment since the fourth quarter rollover has been extremely modest, so far.

9 August 2018 June GDP Data to Show Economy has Little Underlying Momentum (Publication Centre)

Investors with long sterling positions should not pin their hopes on Friday's GDP report to reverse some of the losses endured over the last week.

9 August 2017 Chinese Trade Growth to Continue Trending Down in the Second Half (Publication Centre)

The headline Chinese trade numbers are beginning to come into line with the story we have been telling about the more recent trends.

9 Aug 2019 China's Trade Balance has Just About Peaked, For Now (Publication Centre)

China's trade numbers for July surprised to the upside, with both exports and imports faring better than consensus forecasts in year-over-year terms.

9 Oct 2019 Car Output and Sales Data Point to Upside Risk to August's GDP (Publication Centre)

We look for August's GDP report, released on Thursday, to show that output held steady, following July's 0.3% month-to-month jump.

9 Oct 2019 Why has German Manufacturing Output Fallen so Far so Fast (Publication Centre)

German manufacturing rebounded somewhat mid-way through Q3.

EZ Datanote: Eurogroup Decision (Publication Centre)

In one line: A truce, but the battle isn't over.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stabilisation in the m/m data, but trend still points to slower output growth.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not much to cheer about; the trend is still falling.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core inflation remains subdued, but it will rise soon.

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: The market speaks, and the ECB listens.

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Q1, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but risks loom for the Q2 numbers.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 7 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's exporters fulfil old orders; new orders have plunged; Caixin survey underlines that smaller firms are still sputtering; An unsurprisingly modest start for "unlimited QE" in Japan; Expect much more trade damage to Korea's current account surplus in April

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 October 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese services remain punchy, but momentum has subsided from the initial bounce

EZ Datanote: Consumer Sentiment, Eurozone, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Like watching paint dry.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, and the outlook for Q2 isn't great.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, but it won't last.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Households aren't fazed by the political crisis.

U.S. Datanote: NFIB Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, but still an incomplete recovery.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Much stronger than the ISM, but the gap is not necessarily about to close.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, March & Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Brexit preparations provide a temporary fillip to manufacturing.

U.K. Datanote: Car Registrations, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: An inevitable pull-back after Q1's pick-up.

EZ Datanote: Sentix and Retail Sales, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: A further rebound in investor sentiment, and a robust Q1 for the EZ consumer.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing gain fails to offset weakness elsewhere.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Underlying pressures are modest, and food prices are starting to stabilise.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 October 2020 (Publication Centre)

Korean manufacturers largely shrug off the second wave

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Punchy output gains from China's manufacturers will soon give way. A mixed bag for China's non-manufacturing sectors at the start of Q3. Don't be fooled by the June slip in Japan's unemployment rate. Expect only a mild recovery in Japanese industrial production, for now. Korean production ended Q2 on a strong note.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Tankan suggests downside risks to our -6% y/y Q2 GDP forecast. Private manufacturers in China continue to play catch-up. Expect a bumpy recovery for Korean exports in Q3. Korean business sentiment is finally recovering.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korean inflation surprises to the upside in April. Manufacturing surveys in Korea are turning up.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 August 2020 (Publication Centre)

This should be as high as it gets for Japanese inflation for a while, No significant economic damage from Japan's second wave, just yet, The recovery in Korean exports remains on track, PPI deflation in Korea eases for a second straight month

Asia 11 May 2020 Ignore China's Sturdy April Exports, Catch-Up can only go so Far (Publication Centre)

China's export data for April were a mixed bag, to say the least.

9 October 2018 PBoC RRR cut: The Lady Doth Protest too Much, Methinks (Publication Centre)

Over the weekend, the PBoC cut the RRR for the vast majority of banks. FX reserves data released shortly after suggested that the Bank already is propping up the currency.

9 Oct 2020 The Second Wave of Layoffs Will Emerge in September's PAYE Data (Publication Centre)

Next week's labour market report likely will show that job cuts accelerated again, after a lull in the summer.

9 October 2017 Britain's Productivity Problem can no Longer Hide Below the Surface (Publication Centre)

Britain's productivity problem has been building under the surface for years, but it is set to be more pertinent now that the economy is close to full employment.

9 October 2017 Did German Manufacturing Pick up the Pace in Q3? (Publication Centre)

Friday's German new orders data were sizzling. Factory orders jumped 3.6% month-to-month in August, pushing the year-over-year rate up to a nine-month high of 7.8%, from an upwardly-revised 5.4% in July.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

A slow start to Q3 for Japan's economy.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

A two-tiered economic recovery is emerging in Japan. PPI deflation in Korea will soon bottom out

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Encouraging momentum from China's private sector in the lead-up to Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

A jump in Chinese services was due, but activity remains well below pre-Covid levels

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese services are doing the heavy lifting in Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

No post-lockdown bounce for private services in China

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's stable unemployment rate belies underlying weakness. Tokyo energy inflation turns the corner. Sales tax preparations breathe life into Japanese production in May... if only temporarily. Korea's IP plunge in May shows why Japan can't rest on its laurels.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's recovery is on track--just--with its second wave receding. Japan's construction sector rebounded modestly at the start of Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23rd October 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's rebound is losing momentum. Outright CPI deflation in Japan is inevitable.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Korea's modest consumption rebound in Q2 barely cushioned the trade blow

7 Aug 2020 What to Make of the June Jump in German Factory Orders (Publication Centre)

Demand in German manufacturing rebounded powerfully at the end of the second quarter, accelerating from an initially modest rebound when lockdowns were lifted.

7 Aug 2020 More Monetary Stimulus Likely in Q4, Despite the MPC's Optimism (Publication Centre)

The MPC struck a less dovish tone than markets had anticipated yesterday.

4 Sept 2019 The Manufacturing Rollover Worsens Blame the Trade War (Publication Centre)

We have argued for some time that much of the early phase of the downturn in global manufacturing was due to the weakening of China's economic cycle, rather than the trade war.

4 Sept 2019 Manufacturing in Brazil Struggles, Supporting the Case for Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Brazilian industrial production data were downbeat.

4 Sep 2020 Chile's Central Bank to Keep Rates on Hold for the Foreseeable Future (Publication Centre)

Recent hard data have confirmed the severe shock from Corona to the Chilean economy in Q2.

4 October 2018 Will the Consumer Carry the EZ Economy amid External Risks (Publication Centre)

The news-flow in the Eurozone was almost unequivocally bad over the summer.

4 Sept. 2015 The ECB is Spooked by Low Oil Price and Low Growth in EMs (Publication Centre)

The ECB left its key interest rates unchanged yesterday, and maintained the pace of QE at €60B a month, but increased the issue limit to 33% from 25%. The updated staff projections revealed a downward adjustment of the central bank's inflation and growth forecasts across all horizons up to 2017. These forecasts were accompanied by a very dovish introductory statement, noting disappointment with the pace of the cyclical recovery, and emphasizing renewed downside risks to the economy and the inflation outlook.

4 September 2017 Manufacturing Will Continue to Lift EZ GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone manufacturing boosted GDP growth in the first half of the year, and survey data suggest that momentum will be maintained in Q3.

5 April 2017 The Brazilian Economy is Improving: Expect a Modest Q1 GDP Recovery (Publication Centre)

Brazilian February industrial production data, released yesterday, were relatively positive. Output rose 0.1% month-to-month, pushing the yearover- year rate down to -0.8% from 1.4% in January. Statistical quirks were behind February's year-over-year fall, though.

5 April 2017 EZ Retail Sales Snap Back, but Q1 Outlook Still looks Poor (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that consumers in the euro area increased their spending in February, following recent weakness. Retail sales rose 0.7% month-to-month in February, reversing the cumulative 0.4% decline since November. The year-over-year rate was pushed higher to 1.8% from an upwardly revised 1.5% in January.

5 Apr. 2016 The Great Front-Running in EZ Corporate Bonds Has Begun (Publication Centre)

Corporate bonds will not be included in the ECB's monthly QE purchases until the end of Q2, but markets are already preparing. The sale of non-financial corporate debt jumped to €49.4B in March, from about €25B in February, within touching distance of the record set in Q1 last year.

4 October 2018 Japan Looks Set for a Weak Q3 Unsurprising After the Q2 Leap (Publication Centre)

Japan's real GDP seems unlikely to have risen in Q3, and could even have edge down quarter-on- quarter, after the 0.7% leap in Q2.

4 October 2017 Survey Data Suggest Recoveries in Brazil and Mexico are on Track (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian economy has been recovering at a decent pace in recent months. The labor market is on the mend, with the unemploymen t rate falling rapidly to 12.5% in August from 14% at the end of Q1.

4 Nov 2019 Korea's Export Slump has Bottomed Out... Global Trade will Follow Suit (Publication Centre)

The downturn in global trade looks set to turn a corner, at least judging by the outlook for Korean exports, which are a key bellwether.

4 Nov 2019 Are Markets Eyeing a Bottom in EZ GDP Growth? (Publication Centre)

We have spent the past few weeks shifting our story on the EZ economy from one focused on slowing growth and downside risks to a more balanced outlook. It seems that markets are starting to agree with us.

4 May. 2016 Eurozone Manufacturing Firms' Selling Prices Continue to Fall (Publication Centre)

Eurozone manufacturing selling prices remain under pressure from deflationary headwinds. The PPI index, ex-construction, in the euro area fell 4.2% year-over-year in March, matching February's drop. Weakness in oil prices continues to drive the headline.

4 Nov 2019 The Jobs Outlook is Deteriorating Despite the Solid October, ex-GM (Publication Centre)

The unexpectedly robust 128K increase in October payrolls--about 175K when the GM strikers are added back in--and the 98K aggregate upward revision to August and September change our picture of the labor market in the late summer and early fall.

4 Nov 2019 The MPC Won't Send Up a Flare While the Outlook Remains Cloudy (Publication Centre)

The economic and political backdrop to this week's Monetary Policy Committee meeting is significantly more benign than when it last met on September 19.

4 October 2017 BoJ QE Programme Slows to a Trickle but Reflation on the Cards (Publication Centre)

The rapidity with which the BoJ's QE programme has been scaled back is dramatic. Growth in the monetary base slowed to 15.6% year-over-year in September from 16.3% in August.

4 Oct 2019 China Needs a Bigger Current Account Surplus Again (Publication Centre)

China's current account surplus was revised down last week to $46.2B in Q2, from $57.0B in the preliminary data, marking a dip from $49.0B in Q1.

4 Nov 2019 Brazil's Industrial Sector Improved in Q3, Colombia's Economy is Strong (Publication Centre)

Thursday and Friday were busy days for LatAm economy watchers. In Brazil, the data underscored our view that the economy is on the mend, but the recent upturn remains shaky, and external risks are still high.

5 April 2018 China No Longer Idly Waiting for Trade War (Publication Centre)

China hit back against the Trump-administration tariffs yesterday, targeting Mr. Trump's electorate.

5 April 2019 German Manufacturers are Reliving the Horrors of 2008 (Publication Centre)

We have been telling an upbeat story about the EZ economy in recent Monitors, emphasizing solid services and consumers' spending data.

5 February 2019 Spain's Economy is Still the Unsung Hero in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The majority of headlines from last week's advance Q4 GDP data in the Eurozone--see here--were negative.

5 Feb. 2015 The Eurozone Economy is Getting Better: Cyclical Recovery Ahead (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's retail sales report indicates that preliminary Eurozone Q4 GDP data next week are likely to paint an upbeat picture of the economy. Sales rose 0.3% month-to-month in December, equivalent to 2.8% year-over-year. An upward revision to November data means that turnover increased 0.8% quarter-on- quarter, the best since the first quarter of 2005.

5 Feb 2020 What Does the EU Want out of Trade Negotiations with the U.K. (Publication Centre)

The opening gambits in the post-Brexit trade negotiations were played earlier this week, in speeches from U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier.

5 Feb 2020 New Fiscal Forecasts Will Clip the Chancellor's Wings (Publication Centre)

The Budget on March 11 will be the first time that the new government's ambition and bluster collide with reality.

5 January 2017 Will a Borrowing Binge Prevent a Consumer Spending Slowdown? (Publication Centre)

November's money and credit figures showed that households increasingly turned to unsecured debt last year in order to maintain rapid growth in consumption. Unsecured borrowing, excluding student loans, rose by £1.7B in November alone, the most since March 2005. This pushed up the year- over-year growth rate of unsecured borrowing to 10.8%--again, the highest rate since 2005--from 10.6% in October.

5 January 2018 The Plodding Economy Will Enable the MPC to Take its Time (Publication Centre)

December's Markit/CIPS surveys for the manufacturing, construction and services sectors suggest that the economy ended 2017 on a lacklustre note.

5 July 2017 ISM Signals Continued Industrial Recovery, but not a Boom (Publication Centre)

The June ISM manufacturing index signalled clearly that the industrial recovery continues, with the headline number rising to its highest level since August 2014, propelled by rising orders and production. But the industrial economy is not booming and the upturn likely will lose a bit of momentum in the second half as the rebound in oil sector capex slows.

5 July 2017 Cyclical Improvement in Brazil's Trade Balance is Nearly Over (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external position continue to improve, but we are sticking to our view that further significant gains are unlikely in the second half, given the stronger BRL. For now, though, we still see some momentum, with the unadjusted trade surplus increasing to USD7.2B in June, up from USD4.0B a year earlier. Exports surged 24% year-over-year but imports rose only 3%.

5 July 2017 BoJ to Jettison Quantity Target as Voters Express Discontent (Publication Centre)

Mr Abe's Liberal Democratic Party took a drubbing at the polls in Tokyo's Assembly election over the weekend. The consequences for fiscal spending probably are minimal but the vote strengthens the case for increased emphasis on the structural reform "arrow" and less focus on monetary policy.

5 Feb 2020 BoJ Reaction to the Coronavirus Could Damage Activity, Perversely (Publication Centre)

We've previously highlighted the pro-cyclical elements of the BoJ's framework, but it's worth repeating, when an economic shock comes along.

5 December 2018 China and U.S. Agree a Truce Exports Still Face Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Data last Friday showed Japan's labour market trends deteriorating.

5 Aug 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Showing Solid Signs of Gradual Stabilization (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in Brazil underscored that the Covid-related shock on the industrial sector is finally easing, as the economy gradually reopens.

5 April 2019 The RBI is Playing with Fire Inflation Will Soon Rear its Ugly Head (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India lowered the benchmark repurchase rate by another 25 basis points yesterday, to 6.00%, as widely expected.

5 April 2019 Mexico's Economy Remained Weak in Q1, but it will Rebound from Q2 (Publication Centre)

The relative strength of the investor and consumer confidence reports for March, released this week, signal a better outlook for the Mexican economy.

5 Aug 2020 Mortgage Refinancing will Support Incomes Immaterially This Year (Publication Centre)

The economy will endure a sluggish recovery from Covid-19 this year, even if a second wave of the virus is avoided, partly because monetary stimulus is not filtering through powerfully to households.

5 Aug 2020 The EZ Budget Deficit is Widening, but the ECB is Ahead of the Curve (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data provided further evidence of the rising costs of supporting the EZ economy through the Covid-19 shock.

5 December 2018 Brazil's Industrial Output Started Q4 Softly, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Brazil's key data flow started Q4 on a soft note, but we still believe that the economic recovery will gather strength over the next three-to-six months.

5 Dec 2019 Why We Aren't Panicking About India's Weaker Q3 GDP Print (Publication Centre)

India's headline GDP print for the third quarter was damning, with growth slowing further, to 4.5% year- over-year, from 5.0% in Q2.

5 Dec 2019 The Downshift in ADP Employment Probably is Signal, not Noise (Publication Centre)

We were worried about downside risk to yesterday's ADP employment measure, but the 67K increase in November private payrolls was at the very bottom of our expected range.

4 May 2020 Data are Starting to Show the Shock of Covid-19, Q2 will be a Write-off (Publication Centre)

LatAm data in recent days have confirmed that efforts to contain the coronavirus, plunging global trade, and the collapse in oil prices, are dealing a severe economic and financial blow.

4 May 2017 How to Interpret the Results from Today's Local Elections (Publication Centre)

Today's local elections are more important than usual, because they will enable investors to assess if the Conservatives really are on track for a landslide victory in the general election, as suggested by the opinion polls and priced-in by the forex market.

4 December 2017 Japan's Labour Market is Already Tight, and Getting Tighter (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour market is already tight, but last week's data suggest it is set to tighten further.

4 Dec. 2015 Brazil's Economic Mess Worsens Amid Deepening Political Crises (Publication Centre)

Industrial production data yesterday confirmed downside risks to Q4's GDP data in Brazil. Output fell 0.7% month-to-month in October, the fifth consecutive decline, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -11.2%, from -10.9% in September. This was the biggest drop since April 2009, when output collapsed by 14.2% during the global financial crisis. The October details were even worse than the headline, as all three broad-measures fell sharply.

4 Dec. 2014 The ECB Doves are In Control - Can They Make Their Influence Count? (Publication Centre)

The dovish message from the ECB going into today's final meeting of the year has intensified. Mr. Draghi's comments last month, at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, point to an increased worry on low core inflation.

4 Dec 2019 Net Trade will Hit Korea's Q4 GDP, Cancelling-out a Domestic Bounce (Publication Centre)

Korea's final GDP report for the third quarter confirmed the economy's growth slowdown to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, following the 1.0% bounce-back in Q2.

4 December 2017 Britain Will be Forever Stuck in the Brexit Departure Lounge (Publication Centre)

Sterling strengthened last week to its highest tradeweighted level since mid-May, amid hopes that the U.K. government will concede more ground to ensure that the European Council deems, at its December 14 meeting, that "sufficient progress" has been made in Brexit talks for trade discussions to begin

4 December 2018 China and U.S. Agree a Truce Exports Still Face Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Following the much-anticipated meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump over the weekend, the U.S. will now leave existing tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods at 10%, rather than increasing the rate to 25% in January, as previously slated.

4 Feb 2020 Don't Look to the Manufacturing Sector for Growth This Year (Publication Centre)

January's Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggests that the outcome of the general election has brought manufacturers some momentary relief.

4 Feb 2020 Consumer Fundamentals Will Support Spending, Look at Redbook (Publication Centre)

The fundamentals underpinning our forecast of solid first half growth in consumers' spending remain robust.

4 December 2018 Eurozone Markets Want to Believe in the U.S.-China Trade Truce (Publication Centre)

The 90-day truce in the trade wars between the U.S. and China, brokered on Saturday at the G20 meeting in Argentina, is a big deal for financial markets in the euro area, at least in the near term.

4 Dec 2019 EURUSD is Poised to Move, The Case for a Rise is Strengthening (Publication Centre)

Implied volatility on the euro is now so low that we're compelled to write about it, mainly because we think the macroeconomic data are hinting where the euro goes next.

4 Dec 2019 Better Times Lie Ahead for the Construction Sector (Publication Centre)

2019 is a year many in the construction sector would prefer to forget.

31 October 2017 Consumption Set for a Sluggish Q4, Capex Will Take up the Slack (Publication Centre)

The September consumption data were a bit better than median expectations, with real spending rebounding by 0.6%, led by an 15.1% leap in the new vehicle component.

31 October 2017 China's Developers Increase Risky Debt Issuance as Property Cools (Publication Centre)

In yesterday's Monitor we suggested that China's profits surge has been party dependent on developers' risky debt issuance practices.

31 May. 2016 Can we Still be Confident that the Saving Rate Will Fall? (Publication Centre)

Europeans, who usually save more of their income than Americans, have spent all the windfall from falling gas prices. Americans have not. It is tempting, therefore, to argue that perhaps Americans have come to see the error of their low-saving ways, and are now seeking to emulate the behavior of high-saving Europeans. Undeniably, the plunge in gas prices has given Americans the opportunity to save more without making hard choices.

31 October 2018 Japan's Unemployment Rate is Likely to Tick up Again in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The Japanese unemployment rate fell again in September, to 2.3% from 2.4%. In the same vein, the job-to-applicant ratio rose to 1.64, from 1.63.

4 Apr. 2016 Did the Brazilian Industrial Slump Ease Significantly in Q1? (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian manufacturing sector remains very depressed by weak end-demand, but the misery is easing, at the margin. Industrial production fell 2.5% month-to-month in February, equivalent to an eye-watering 9.8% contraction year-over-year, but this was rather less bad than the 13.6% slump in January.

4 Aug 2020 Rising Covid-19 Infections Signal no Further Net Reopening (Publication Centre)

The continued gradual rise in new confirmed cases of Covid-19 lends more weight to the idea that the economy already has reopened as much as possible while containing the virus.

4 Aug 2020 Chile's Economic Recovery Started Strongly in June, Despite the Virus (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days confirmed the intensity of the Covid-related shock to the Chilean economy in Q2.

4 April 2019 More Evidence of a Relatively Resilient Domestic EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports added to the evidence the euro area economy as a whole is showing signs of resilience in the face of still-terrible conditions in manufacturing.

4 Feb 2020 Early PBoC Rate Cut Confirms Official Worry Over Virus fallout (Publication Centre)

The PBoC yesterday cut its 7-day and 14-day reverse repo rate by 10bp, to 2.40% and 2.55% respectively, while injecting RMB 1.2T through open market operations.

4 Feb 2020 Focus on the (Publication Centre)

The near-term performance for EZ manufacturing will be a tug-of-war between positive technical factors, and a still-poor fundamental outlook.

4 Mar 2020 The Policy Put is Alive and Well, the ECB will Follow the Fed (Publication Centre)

Markets were left somewhat disappointed yesterday by the G7 statement that central banks and finance ministers stand ready "to use all appropriate policy tools to achieve strong, sustainable growth and safeguard against downside risks."

4 Mar 2020 Revisions Aside, India's Q4 GDP isn't Worrying, nor is the Virus Risk (Publication Centre)

India's GDP report for the fourth quarter surprised to the upside, with the economy growing by 4.7% year-over-year, against the Bloomberg median forecast of 4.5%.

4 Mar 2020 Pulling Down our Economic Forecasts Due to the Coronavirus (Publication Centre)

We are revising down our forecasts for quarteron-quarter GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 to 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, from 0.4% in both quarters previously, to account for the likely impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

4 Mar. 2015 Brazil's Central Bank Set to Respond As Inflation Fails to Slow (Publication Centre)

Brazil is now paying the price of President Rousseff's first term, which was characterized by unaffordable expansionary policies. As a result, inflation is now trending higher, forcing the BCB to tighten at a more aggressive pace than initially intended--or expected by investors--depressing business and investment confidence.

4 March 2019 Does the Flatter Phillips Curve Mean the Next Downturn will be Severe (Publication Centre)

Investors focussed last week on Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony, but he said nothing much new.

4 March 2019 The EZ Core CPI Rate Remains Motionless at About 1% (Publication Centre)

Last week's final barrage of data showed that EZ headline inflation rose slightly last month, by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5%, driven mainly by increases in the unprocessed food energy components.

4 March 2019 No Light at the End of the Tunnel for Japan's Softening Labour Market (Publication Centre)

Japan's jobless rate inched up to 2.5% in January, from 2.4% in December.

4 March 2019 Is the Slowdown in Money Growth an Ominous Sign (Publication Centre)

January's money supply figures continued the nerve-jangling flow of data on the economy's momentum.

4 Mar 2020 Brazil's Survey Data Point to a Steady Upturn, but it will Stutter Soon (Publication Centre)

The key story in Brazil this year remains one of gradual recovery, but downside risks have increased sharply, due mainly to challenging external conditions.

4 June. 2015 Inflation forecasts up, but Doves remain in charge at the ECB (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi struck a dovish tone yesterday, despite the new ECB staff projections upgrading the inflation forecast this year to an average of 0.3%, up from the zero predicted in March. The president reiterated that the central bank's expectation of a gradual improvement in inflation and real GDP growth is conditional on the full implementation of QE.

4 January 2019 Poor End to 2018 Underscores the Hastiness of the Bank of Korea Hike (Publication Centre)

Korean hard data for December, so far, leave the door ajar for the possibility that the Bank of Korea will roll back its November hike sooner than we expect.

4 January 2017 Stronger Surveys Should Not Foster Optimism about Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

A cluster of surveys suggest that the manufacturing sector finished 2016 with a flourish, after a dismal performance for most of the year. But momentum will drain away from the sector's recovery in 2017, as higher oil prices make low value-added work unprofitable again and resurgent inflation causes domestic consumer demand to crumble.

4 February 2019 Behind the Wild, Unsustainable Jobs Numbers, Wage Gains are Rising (Publication Centre)

Where to start with the January employment report, where all the key numbers were off-kilter in one way or another?

4 July 2017 Mr Abe Trounced in Tokyo Elections just as Recovery Gains Traction (Publication Centre)

The Tankan survey powered ahead in Q2, pulling away from Q1 and mostly beating consensus. This confirms our impression of the strength of the recovery ,just as Prime Minister Abe's Liberal Democratic Party is trounced at the polls in Tokyo. The drubbing is understandable as the main benefits of Abenomics have gone to the business sector, at the expense of the household sector.

4 July 2019 We Know the Names of the EU's New Top Brass, and That's About it (Publication Centre)

Europe's political leaders finally made a breakthrough this week in nominating candidates for the top jobs in the EU.

4 June 2020 Don't Set Store by India's Q1 GDP Surprise, no Bullet was Dodged (Publication Centre)

India's consensus-beating GDP report for the first quarter wasn't much to write home about.

4 June 2019 The Q2 Fall in Manufacturing Output Won't Alter the MPC's Course (Publication Centre)

The downbeat tone of Markit's May manufacturing survey shouldn't come as a surprise, given the weak global backdrop and the inevitable fading of the boost to output from Brexit preparations.

4 June 2018 Chinese PPI Inflation is Set to Head Higher, it will be Short-lived (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing headline was unremarkable, but the input price index signals that PPI inflation is set to rise again in May, to 4.0%-plus, from 3.4% in April.

5 July 2017 The Consumer Slowdown will Ripple out to the Services Sector Soon (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in quarter-on-quarter growth in households' real spending to 0.4% in Q1--just half 2016's average rate--was driven entirely by a 0.1% fall in purchases of goods. Households' spending on services, by contrast, continued to grow briskly. Indeed, the 0.8% quarter-on-quarter rise in households' real spending on services exceeded 2016's average 0.5% rate.

5 July 2019 Trade Truce 2.0 Means that the BoK will Happily Ignore June's Weak Data (Publication Centre)

Korea's economic data for June largely were poor, and are likely to make more BoK board members anxious ,ahead of their meeting on July 18.

6 March 2018 Easing Services Price Pressures Undermine the Rate Hike Case (Publication Centre)

The case for the MPC to hold back from raising interest rates in May remains strong, despite the improvement in the Markit/CIPS services survey in February.

6 March 2017 Fed Fears Hit LatAm FX Last Week - is a Renewed Sell-off Coming? (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets have struggled in recent days as it has become clear that the Fed will hike next week. But we don't expect currencies to collapse, as domestic fundamentals are improving and the broader external outlook is relatively benign.

6 March 2017 Can Gilt Yields Remain Low While the World Reflates? (Publication Centre)

If 2017 really is the year of "reflation", somebody forgot to tell the gilt market. Among the G7 group, 10-year yields have fallen only in the U.K. during the last three months, as our first chart shows.

6 Mar. 2015 The BCB Hikes Again But The Tightening Cycle is Not Quite Over (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian industrial sector started this year on a very downbeat note, despite a 2% month-to-month jump in output. The underlying trend in activity is still very weak. Production fell 5.2% year-over-year.

6 March 2019 Andean Policymakers in no Rush to Modify their Neutral Policy Stance (Publication Centre)

Chile's IMACEC economic activity index rose 2.4% year-over-year in January, down from 2.6% in December, and 3.3% on average in Q4, thanks mostly to weak mining production.

6 May 2019 Payrolls Can't Sustain April's Pace, but Unemployment will Keep Falling (Publication Centre)

It would be astonishing if the May and June payroll numbers looked much like April's strong data, at least in the private sector.

6 May 2020 Timely Indicators Show the Economy is Adapting to the Lockdown (Publication Centre)

Emerging evidence suggests that the economy has passed the period of peak Covid-19 pain.

6 May 2020 China's Trade Woes Probably Came Back with a Vengeance in April (Publication Centre)

The collapse in global demand last month will have derailed China's trade recovery, causing exports to drop unpleasantly month-on-month after the bounce of around 45% in March; the January/February breakdown is not provided, so we can't be sure of the extent of the March rebound.

6 May 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector Collapsed in March, It will Slide Further in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak severely dented industrial activity in Brazil.

6 Mar 2020 The Near-Term Fiscal Boost from the Budget Will Be Modest (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak faces a tough first gig on Wednesday, when he delivers the long-awaited Budget.

6 Mar 2020 Bad to Worse for Korea's Q1, but MERS Shows Rebound Potential (Publication Centre)

The rapid escalation of Covid-19 cases in Korea in recent weeks has broadened the likely damage to the economy this quarter.

6 July 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is on the Mend, but Downside Threats Remain (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector is still suffering, but the pain is easing as the economy gradually reopens. That said, full recovery is a long way off, and the pandemic is still far from over, adding downside risks to the recent upbeat picture.

6 July 2018 Finally, a Bit of Good News in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand in German manufacturing rebounded strongly midway through the second quarter.

6 July 2017 Monte dei Paschi Finally is Restructured. Will it Work? (Publication Centre)

It's probably happening a decade too late, but the EU is now moving in leaps and bounds to restructure the continent's weakest banks. Yesterday, the Monte dei Paschi saga reached an interim conclusion when the Commission agreed to allow the Italian government to take a 70% stake in the ailing lender.

6 July 2020 Private Firms in China are Finally Waking Up from their Long Coma (Publication Centre)

The private sector in China has finally joined the party, boosting the durability of the economic recovery.

6 June 2018. Brazil's Industrial Sector Maintained Momentum in April, Will it Last? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report in Brazil was sizzling. Headline output jumped 0.8% month- to-month in April--well above the 0.4% consensus-- pushing the year-over-year rate up to 8.9%, a five- year high.

6 Mar 2020 Are Migration and Climate Change Challenges Uniting the EU (Publication Centre)

In today's Monitor, we'll let the economy be, and focus instead on what are fast becoming the two defining political issues for the EU and its new Commission, namely migration and climate change.

6 June 2019 Japanese Tax Hike Delay now More Likely, Even with a Q1 GDP Upgrade (Publication Centre)

We are sticking to our call for a weak first half in Japan, despite likely upgrades to Q1 GDP on Monday.

6 June 2018. Q2 Rebound on Track, Giving the MPC a Brief Window to Hike Rates (Publication Centre)

Business surveys released over the last week have made us more confident in our call that quarter-on- quarter GDP growth will recover to about 0.4% in Q2, from Q1's weather-impacted 0.1% rate.

6 May. 2016 Will the Periphery's Resilience to Political Risks Persist? (Publication Centre)

Political risks in the periphery have simmered constantly during this cyclical recovery, but they have increased recently. In Italy, the government is scrambling to find a solution to rid its ailing banking sector of bad loans. But recapitalisation via a bad bank is not possible under new EU rules.

6 Nov 2019 PBoC Wades in with a... 5bp MLF cut, it's Nowhere Near Enough (Publication Centre)

The PBoC finally moved yesterday, cutting its one-year MLF rate by 5bp to 3.25%, whilst replacing around RMB 400B of maturing loans.

7 Apr. 2015 The noose tightens on Greece and its creditors as default looms (Publication Centre)

Negotiations between Greece and its creditors will come to a head in the next few weeks as the country faces imminent risk of running out of money. Following a meeting with the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, on Sunday Greek finance minister Faroufakis assured investors that the country intends to make a scheduled €450M payment to the fund on Thursday.

7 Apr 2020 The Trio of March Data Looks Bad, But Worse is to Come in April (Publication Centre)

A trio of data releases yesterday provided no relief from the run of abysmal economic news.

6 September 2018 Eurozone Retail Sales Details Look Better than the Headline (Publication Centre)

The EZ retail sector slowed at the start of Q3, though only slightly.

7 Apr. 2016 Peruvian Presidential Race Faces Rising Last-Minute Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

Ms Keiko Fujimori, the candidate of Peru's conservative Fuerza Popular party, seems on course to win the first round of the presidential election this Sunday, April 10. According to the latest Ipsos poll, the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori continues to lead the race, with the support or about 34% of voters.

7 Apr. 2016 The Oil Industry Won't Disappear - the Contraction Will End Soon (Publication Centre)

If the current rate of contraction continues, the U.S. onshore oil industry will cease to exist in the third week of January next year. Over the past six weeks, the number of operating rigs has dropped by an average of 8.5, and 362 rigs were running last week. At the peak, in early October 2014--just 18 months ago--the rig count reached 1,609.

7 Aug 2020 Brazil Likely will Keep Rates on Hold, as Long as the Economy Recovers (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board-- COPOM--met expectations on Wednesday, voting unanimously to cut the Selic rate by 25bp to 2.00%.

7 Aug 2019 Will Tory Rebels Vote with the Opposition in a No-Confidence Vote? (Publication Centre)

According to Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, it is "almost inevitable" that Labour will table a no-confidence motion in the government next month, shortly after MPs return from the summer recess on September 3.

7 April 2017 Brace for Disappointing Industrial Production Data Today (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing orders in Germany recovered some ground in the middle of Q1, following the plunge at the beginning of the year. Factory orders rose 3.4% in February, pushing the year-over-year rate up to +4.6% from a revised 0.0% in January.

6 September 2017 Will the Brazilian Industrial Sector Continue to Perform Strongly? (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector came roaring back at the start of Q3, following a poor end to Q2. Industrial production jumped 0.8% month-to-month in July, driving the year-over-year rate higher to 2.5%, from 0.5% in June and just 0.1% on average in Q2.

6 September 2017 EZ Consumers' Spending Likely will Slow in Q3, but don't Panic (Publication Centre)

EZ consumers' spending slowed at the start of Q3. Retail sales slipped 0.3% month-to-month in July, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 2.6% from an upwardly revised 3.3% in June.

6 Nov. 2015 Brazil's Industrial Recession Deepens - Chile's Recovery in Place (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector continues to suffer, despite September's report surprising marginally on the upside. Output contracted 1.3% month-to-month in September, after a 0.9% fall in August, pushing the year over-year rate down to -10.9% down from -8.8% in August. This is the biggest drop since April 2009. Output has fallen an eye-popping -7.4% year-to-date, and in the third quarter alone activity contracted by 3.2% quarter-on-quarter, in line with our vie w for a 1.2% contraction in real GDP for the third quarter.

6 Nov 2019 The Two-Quarter Productivity Boomlet is Over, ULC Accelerating (Publication Centre)

Productivity growth reached the dizzy heights of 1.8% year-over-year in the second quarter, following a couple of hefty quarter-on-quarter increases, averaging 2.9%.

6 Nov 2019 Some Preliminary Thoughts on EZ Fiscal Policy Next Year (Publication Centre)

Judging by interactions with readers in the past few weeks, fiscal policy is one of the most important topics for EZ investors as we move into the final stretch of the year.

6 Nov. 2015 Markets Ignore Inflation Report's Hawkish Undertones (Publication Centre)

Markets have interpreted the Monetary Policy Committee's "Super Thursday" releases as an endorsement of their view that interest rates will remain on hold for another year. We think the Committee's communications were more nuanced and believe the door is still open to an interest rate rise in the second quarter of next year.

6 November 2017 Could a Q4 Data Bounce the MPC into Another Rate Hike? (Publication Centre)

The MPC's penchant for providing interest rate guidance reached new heights last week.

6 Sept 2019 Ugly Factory Orders Data to Kick off Q3 for German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand in German manufacturing slid at the start of Q3.

6 Oct 2020 Korea's Export Recovery in Q3 was Brisk... but the Easy Bit is Now Over (Publication Centre)

Korean exports ended the third quarter on a solid note, though nowhere near as strongly as the headline growth rate suggested.

6 Oct 2020 Covid Threatens Medium-Term GDP Growth but the Story is not All Bad (Publication Centre)

The steep rise in the number of people unemployed for more than six months attracted a good deal of media attention after the release of Friday's August jobs report, as well it might.

6 Jan. 2015 Weak German CPI = December Deflation in The Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Advance inflation data from Germany and Spain indicate that the Eurozone slipped into deflation last month, piling maximum pressure on Mr. Draghi later this month. Inflation in the euro area's largest economy fell to 0.2% year-over-year in December from 0.6% in November, driven by a 6.6% plunge in the energy component.

6 Jan 2020 Monetary Indicators Point to Stronger GDP Growth Ahead (Publication Centre)

November's monetary indicators provide an upbeat rebuttal to the swathe of downbeat business surveys. Year-over-year growth in the MPC's preferred measure of broad money--M4 excluding intermediate other financial corporations--rose to a 19-month high of 4.0% in November, from 3.5% in October.

5 November 2018 Taking Stock of the Outlook after a Newsworthy Week (Publication Centre)

News last week increased our conviction that the economy will struggle over the coming months, but then will have a spring in its step next year.

5 Nov 2019 How Much Further Can Support for the Two Main Parties Rally? (Publication Centre)

Support in opinion polls for both the Conservatives and Labour has been increasing steadily.

5 Nov 2019 China Faces a Mix of Spiking CPI Inflation and Ongoing PPI Deflation (Publication Centre)

China is facing a nasty mix of spiking CPI inflation and ongoing PPI deflation.

5 May. 2016 Growth in Eurozone Consumers' Spending is Slowing (Publication Centre)

Evidence of slowing growth in Eurozone consumers' spending continues to mount. Retail sales in the euro area fell 0.5% month-to-month in March, pushing the year-over-rate down to 2.1% from a revised 2.7% in February. The headline likely was depressed by the early Easter. March had one trading day less than February, which was not picked up the seasonals.

5 Oct 2020 August GDP Will Prompt the MPC to Reappraise the Recovery's Strength (Publication Centre)

August's GDP report, released on Friday, looks set to reinforce the downward pressure on gilt yields by making it even more likely that the MPC will extend its QE programme later this year.

5 Oct 2020 Data Confirm the Recovery in Brazil is on Track, but Momentum is Fading (Publication Centre)

Brazil's Q3 hard data have confirmed that the economy is recovering from the Corona shock, as economic activity resumes. But some indicators are losing momentum, and the labour market is still struggling, suggesting a long and bumpy road to full recovery.

5 Sept 2019 Don't Write off the EZ Consumer in Q3, Even if Retail Sales Falter (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that EZ consumers' spending was off to a bad start in the third quarter.

5 Oct. 2015 Less Bad Than Expected Data in Brazil, But the Crisis is Not Over (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic and fiscal outlook has worsened in recent months, and economic activity will likely contract even further in the short-term. Some of last week's economic reports, however, were a bit less bad than of late. The latest industrial production data were less bad than expected in August, but the picture is still very grim. Industrial output plunged 1.2% month-to-month, above the consensus, and allowing the annual rate to stabilize at -9% year-over-year.

5 Oct 2020 Don't Bank on a Continuation of Japan's Spending Rebound in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The release of pent-up consumer demand in Japan has been rocky, following the end of the nationwide state of emergency in May. Retail sales values rose by 4.6% month-on-month in August, albeit following a 3.4% correction in the previous month.

5 May 2020 EZ Manufacturing Crashed and Burned at the Start of Q2 (Publication Centre)

Services will bear the brunt of the Covid-19 shock in the euro area, but manufacturing is not far behind.

5 May 2017 Brazil's Industrial Output Dropped in March, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's Brazilian industrial production data were worse than we expected but the details were less alarming than the headline. Output slipped 1.8% month-to-month in March, the biggest fall since August 2015, setting a low starting point for Q2.

5 June 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Suffering, but the Worst is Likely Over (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's industrial production report in Brazil was terrible, despite overshooting market expectations.

5 June 2019 Good Economic and Political News in Brazil Is the Outlook Improving (Publication Centre)

The week started well for Brazil's President Bolsonaro.

5 June 2019 Don't Overlook the Construction Sector's Hidden Supports (Publication Centre)

The flow of downbeat business surveys continued yesterday, with the release of the Markit/CIPS construction survey.

5 June 2020 The ECB Stays Ahead of the Curve, with Consensus-Beating PEPP Lift (Publication Centre)

The ECB took another big step yesterday in assuring markets that it won't waver in the fight against Covid-19.

5 Mar 2020 Does the Fed's Cut Open the Asian Floodgates for Rate Reductions (Publication Centre)

The Fed's unscheduled 50bp cut on Tuesday opens up some space for Asian central banks to follow suit.

5 May 2017 Mr. Macron should be able to move into the Élysée on Monday (Publication Centre)

This weekend will bring closure to an extraordinary presidential election campaign in France. The polls correctly predicted the first result, and assuming they are right in the second round too, Mr. Macron will comfortably beat Ms. Le Pen.

5 Mar 2020 Will the MPC Cut Rates Before its Late March Meeting? (Publication Centre)

Speculation mounted yesterday that the MPC will follow the U.S. Fed and cut interest rates before its next meeting on March 26.

5 Mar 2020 How far Will EZ Services Fall, and Will it Cause a Recession (Publication Centre)

It will take a while for the economic data in the euro area fully to reflect the Covid-19 shock, but the incoming numbers paint an increasingly clear picture of an improving economy going into the outbreak.

5 Sept 2019 Japan's Q2 GDP is set for a Minor Downgrade Clouds on the Horizon (Publication Centre)

We've been surprised by the fast rate of Japanese GDP growth in the first half, though the Q1 pop merely was due to a plunge in imports.

5 September 2018 Manufacturing in Brazil and Mexico is Stabilizing, but Threats Remain (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Brazilian industrial production data were relatively upbeat.

6 February 2017 EZ Households are in Good Shape, But Spending Will Slow in 2017 (Publication Centre)

Consumers' spending in the euro area weakened at the end of Q4, but we think households will continue to boost GDP growth in the first quarter. Data on Friday showed that retail sales fell 0.3% month-to-month in December, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.1%, from a revised 2.8% in November.

6 Feb 2020 Korea's Trade Data for January Show a Modest Virus Hit, For Now (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade data for January provided the first real glimpse of the potential hit to international flows from the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.

6 December 2017 Retail Sales in the EZ Plunged in October, but Will Improve Soon (Publication Centre)

Consumers' spending in the Eurozone stalled at the start of Q4. Retail sales slid 1.1% month-to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate down to a four-year low of 0.4%, from an upwardly-revised 4.0% jump in September.

6 February 2017 Mexico's Sentiment Depressed by Trump Fears and "Gasolinazo" (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest hard data suggest things might not be as bad as we feared. Retail sales and manufacturing output were relatively strong at the end of last year, the Q4 preliminary GDP report was mostly upbeat, and the labor market was firing on all cylinders.

6 February 2017 Growth Indicators Start to Turn Down as Price Pressures Escalate (Publication Centre)

The run of above-consensus news on the U.K. economy came to an abrupt end last week, as a series of survey indicators for January took a turn for the worse. After six months of breathing space, the economic consequences of the Brexit vote are increasingly being felt.

6 Jan 2020 The Mexican Economy will Resume Growth, but Modestly (Publication Centre)

The economic calendar in Mexico was relatively quiet over Christmas, and broadly conformed to our expectations of poor economic activity in Q4.

6 Jan 2020 Risks are Tilted to the Upside for this Week's EZ Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Friday's early EZ CPI data for December were red hot. Headline HICP inflation in Germany jumped to 1.5%, from 1.3% in November, while the headline rate in France increased by 0.4pp, to 1.6%.

6 Jan 2020 China's Hukou Reforms, Useful but no Substitute for Looser Money (Publication Centre)

Late last year, China said it would scrap residency restrictions for cities with populations less than three million, while the rules for those of three-to-five million will be relaxed.

6 December 2017 Don't Take Seriously Surveys Pointing to Faster Q4 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

November's Markit/CIPS surveys for the manufacturing, construction and services sectors suggest that GDP growth is on track to strengthen a touch in Q4.

6 Dec 2019 Only Limited Upside for Sterling in the Event of a Tory Election Win (Publication Centre)

For sterling traders, no election news is good news.

6 Apr 2020 Britain Won't Fare Better than the Rest of Europe in Q2 (Publication Centre)

The U.K. services sector has vanished overnight, following the introduction of tough restrictions on everyday life to stem the spread of Covid-19.

5 September. 2016 Is a Further Rate Cut no Longer a Done Deal? (Publication Centre)

The run of consensus-beating activity measures and the pickup in leading indicators of inflation have led markets to doubt that the MPC really will follow up August's package of stimulus measures with another Bank Rate cut this year.

5 September. 2016 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Stabilizing - Modest Gains Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Friday's Brazil industrial production data were surprisingly upbeat. Output rose 0.1% month-to-month in July, slightly better than the consensus forecast for no change. July's modest gain was the fifth consecutive increase, confirming that industrial output in Brazil is stabilizing, and it paints a less grim picture of GDP growth at the start of Q3.

6 April 2017 Firms in the EZ are Investing Again, but What About Wages? (Publication Centre)

Readers have asked us about the availability of flow-of-funds data in the Eurozone similar to the detailed U.S. reports. The ECB's sector accounts come close and cover a lot of ground, but are also released with a lag. We can't cover all sectors in one Monitor, but the investment data for non-financial firms, excluding construction, suggest that investment growth slowed last year.

6 April 2018 EZ Consumers' Spending Likely Remained Sluggish in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Consumers' spending in the Eurozone slowed in the second half of 2017, providing a favourable base for growth in H1 2018.

6 Dec 2019 EZ Households Stood Tall in Q3, Is the Trend in Consumption Rising (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed Q3 growth data in the Eurozone offered no surprises in terms of the headline.

6 Dec 2019 Abenomics 2.0 this is not, 2020 GDP Growth will Slow Sharply (Publication Centre)

We have consistently flagged the likelihood that Japan's government would boost spending after the consumption tax hike was implemented.

6 Aug 2020 The Recovery will Decelerate Sharply in the Autumn (Publication Centre)

A range of indicators show that the pace of the economic recovery shifted up a gear in July, when all shops were open for the entire month, and most consumer services providers finally were permitted to reopen.

31 May 2019 The Ins and Outs of Last Week's Parliamentary Elections in the EU (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, last week's European Parliament elections were an excellent occasion for the EU.

16 May 2019 Chinese Activity Comes Back Down to Earth--and Then Some--in April (Publication Centre)

Official industrial production growth in China plunged to 5.4% year-over-year in April, from 8.5% in March.

13 Feb 2020 Japan's M2 Still Points to a Growth Slowdown, Regardless of the Virus (Publication Centre)

Japan's money and credit data have shown signs of life in recent months, but that's all set to change quickly, due to the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.

13 Feb 2020 A Double-Dip Recession on the Menu for Italy's in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The fact that Italy's economy is in poor shape will not surprise anyone following the euro area, but the advance Q4 GDP headline was astonishingly poor all the same.

13 December 2018 China's November Activity Data are Set to Disappoint (Publication Centre)

China's October activity data showed signs of the infrastructure stimulus machine sputtering into life. Consensus expectations appear to hold out for a continuation into November, but we think the numbers will be disappointing.

13 February 2018 Is a Second Referendum May's Only Way to Break the Impasse? (Publication Centre)

Suggestions that the U.K. government might choose to hold a second referendum have been constantly rebuffed by the Prime Minister.

13 February 2019 EZ Industrial Output Slumped in Q4, but Q1 Will Be Better (Publication Centre)

Today's industrial production report in the Eurozone will be poor.

13 Jan 2020 Your Monthly Reminder that the French Economy is Doing Fine (Publication Centre)

The French manufacturing data delivered another upside surprise last week, following the solid numbers in Germany; see here. French industrial production rose slightly in November, by 0.3% month-to-month, extending the gains from an upwardly-revised 0.5% rise in October.

13 Jan 2020 Expect Stabilisation, not Recovery, in China's Q4 GDP Data This Week (Publication Centre)

China's GDP report for the fourth quarter, due on Friday, is likely to show that economic growth has stabilised, on the surface.

13 February 2019 Japan's Q4 Bounce Is Secure, but Q1 and Beyond Look Fragile (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index fell further in December,by 0.3% month-on-month, after the downwardly- revised 0.4% drop in November.

13 December 2017 October's Dip in EZ Industrial Production is no Cause for Alarm (Publication Centre)

Today's industrial production data will confirm that EZ manufacturing suffered a slow start to Q4. Advance country data signal a 0.2% month-to-month fall in October, slightly worse than the consensus, 0.0%.

13 December 2017 Mexico's Manufacturing Starts Q4 Badly, but it Will Gradually Improve (Publication Centre)

Mexican industrial activity started the fourth quarter badly. Industrial production fell 0.1% month- to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate slightly up to -1.1% from -1.2% in September and -0.7% in Q3.

13 Apr. 2015 Energy Output Helped French GDP to a Strong First Quarter (Publication Centre)

The French manufacturing sector remains challenged by weak end-demand. Industrial production was unchanged month-to-month in February, equivalent to a meagre 0.6% increase year-over- year; manufacturing output fell 0.8% on the same basis.

12 October 2017 China's Real GDP Growth Should Continue to Trend Down in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Next week is a big one for China. The five yearly Party Congress opens on Wednesday, and on Thursday, the monthly raft of activity data is published, along with Q3 GDP.

12 Oct 2020 The RBI is Locked and Loaded, a December Cut Appears Inevitable (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted unanimously on Friday to keep the repo rate unchanged, at 4.00%, as widely expected. The six members also retained an "accommodative" stance.

13 Aug 2020 Solid EZ Manufacturing Data, but Still Far Off a Full Recovery (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ industrial production report conformed to expectations.

13 Aug 2020 The Fastest Part of the Recovery in GDP Already Lies in the Past (Publication Centre)

The U.K. economy underperformed its peers to an extraordinary degree in Q2.

13 Dec 2019 Japan's Machine Orders Hack a Hole in the Notion of Resilient Capex (Publication Centre)

We've been consistent in saying that Japanese capex would roll over this year, after strength in the first three quarters was seen by the authorities and many commentators as a sign of resilience.

13 August 2018 The 2018 Story is Intact: Slower GDP growth, and Higher Inflation (Publication Centre)

A sluggish GDP headline, a further increase in inflation, and poor German manufacturing data were the primary euro area highlights in our absence.

13 January 2017 The Eurozone Economy Remains Oblivious to Political Risks (Publication Centre)

The euro area economy continues to defy rising political uncertainty. Data yesterday showed that industrial production, ex-construction, in the Eurozone jumped 1.5% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 3.2% from a revised 0.8% in October. Output rose in all the major economies, but the headline was flattered by a 16.3% month-to-month leap in Ireland. This was due to a production jump in Ireland's "modern sector" which includes the country's large multinational technology sector.

13 July 2017 Japanese PPI Inflation to Decelerate, but Only Modestly (Publication Centre)

Japan's producer price inflation levelled off in June and, for now, both commodity prices and currency moves in the first half imply that inflation should fall in the second half.

13 March 2018 Taking the Pulse on EZ Investment Can the Upturn be Sustained? (Publication Centre)

Last week's detailed GDP data in the Eurozone confirmed that the economy is benefiting from an investment cycle for the first time since before the financial crisis.

13 Mar 2020 Lift from Anti-Covid Jobs in Korea won't Last, the BoK will Cut in April (Publication Centre)

The effects of Covid-19--both negative and positive--on Korea's labour market certainly were felt in February.

13 June. 2016 Germany Escapes Deflation, and it Won't Return Anytime Soon (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Germany rebounded last month, rising to plus 0.1% year-over-year in May, from minus 0.1% in April. We think the economy has escaped the claws of deflation, for now. Household energy prices fell 5.7% year-over-year in May, up from a 6.3% decline in April, and the rate will rise further. Base effects and higher oil prices point to a surge in energy inflation in the next three-to-six months.

13 March 2019 Brexit Uncertainty Set to Continue into Q2, but the Economy Can Cope (Publication Centre)

As we go to press, Mrs. May's last-minute scramble to Strasbourg appears to have failed to persuade enough rebels to back the government.

13 March 2019 Durable Goods Orders are Noisy, but the Near-term Outlook is Grim (Publication Centre)

Our default position for core durable goods orders over the next few months is that they will fall, sharply.

13 May. 2016 EZ Manufacturing Jumped in Q1, but Likely Will Nosedive in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Activity in the Eurozone industrial sector cooled at the end of the first quarter. Manufacturing production declined 0.8% month-to-month in March, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.2% from a revised 1.0% in February. Over Q1 as a whole, though, the story was positive.

13 May 2020 Ugly Data in Mexico Continue to Set the Stage for Further Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

More depressing economic numbers in LatAm have been released in recent days, and high frequency data continue to show a near-term bleak outlook.

13 June 2018 Labour Data are Simply too Weak for the MPC to Hike in August (Publication Centre)

April's labour market data show that slack in the job market is no longer declining, while wage growth still isn't recovering. As a result, we no longer think that the MPC will raise Bank Rate in August and now expect the Committee to stand pat until the first half of 2019.

13 June 2017 The Eurozone and Asia's Big Economies are Joined at the Hip (Publication Centre)

In her inaugural Monitor, our Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish plots three scenarios for the Chinese economy. The best-case scenario is that China makes a smooth transition to consumer-led growth.

13 July 2018 Did Sluggish Manufacturing Hold Back the EZ Economy in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in the Eurozone rebounded midway through the second quarter.

13 July 2018 China's Official Real GDP Growth will Paint a Muddled Picture for Q2 (Publication Centre)

Official, real GDP growth was low in Q1, at 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, down from 1.6% in Q4.

13 July 2017 The Eurozone Economy Maintained Momentum in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data showed that industrial production in the Eurozone accelerated at the end of spring. Output, ex-construction, jumped 1.3% month-to-month in May, much better than the downwardly-revised 0.3% rise in April; the rise pushed the year-over-year rate up to a six-year high of 4.0%.

13 July 2020 Inflation in Brazil is Tame, Mexico's Industrial Recession Continues (Publication Centre)

Friday's June inflation data in Brazil confirmed that the ripples from the worst of the Covid shock were still being felt at the end of the quarter.

13 July 2020 June CPI to Print Below the Consensus by 0.1pp (Publication Centre)

June's consumer price figures, released on Wednesday, probably will be overshadowed this week by data for May for GDP--see our detailed preview here--and the labour market.

13 July. 2015 Industrial Production in Mexico stalled in May - But no panic, yet (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest industrial production figures, released on Friday, showed that the recovery is stuttering. May output fell 0.9% year-over-year, down from the 1.2% gain in April. Total production was depressed by a 1.5% month-to-month drop in construction output, after two consecutive increases.

13 July 2020 The French Economy is Healing, but the Easy Gains are Over (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data in the Eurozone provided further evidence of a sharp rebound in manufacturing output as the economy reopened. Industrial production in France jumped by 19.6% month-to-month in May, lifting the year-over-year rate to -23.4% from -35.0% in April.

12 Oct 2020 The French Aerospace Sector has been Knocked Out by Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

Friday's sole economic report added to the evidence that the rebound in EZ manufacturing petered out midway through Q3, even if we still think the German numbers--see here--will rebound soon.

12 November 2018 September's Sombre GDP Report Sets the Tone for the Rest of the Year (Publication Centre)

September's GDP report laid bare the economy's sluggishness.

12 April 2017 Mexico's Industrial Sector Resilient in Q1, Despite External Threats (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report in Mexico added weight to the idea that the sector improved marginally in the first quarter, despite many external threats. Industrial output rose 0.1% month-to-month in February, following a similar gain in January. The calendar-adjusted year-over-year rate rose to -0.1%, after a modest 0.3% contraction in January.

11 September 2017 China's Trade Surplus Edges Lower with net Trade Contributing Little (Publication Centre)

Chinese exports grew by just 5.5% in dollar terms year-over-year in August, down from 7.2% in July. Export growth continues to trend down, with a rise of just 0.2% in RMB terms in the three months to August compared to the previous three months, significantly slower than the 4.8% jump at the p eak in January.

11 Sept 2020 The ECB Just Raised the Bar for a Boost to PEPP, Significantly (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, the ECB conformed to consensus expectations yesterday by leaving its policy stance unchanged.

12 April 2018 A Much-Needed Reality Check on the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Today's industrial production data in the Eurozone will extend the run of soft headlines at the start of the year.

12 Aug 2020 What do EZ Investor Sentiment Data Tell Us about the Q3 Outlook (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ZEW investor sentiment report in Germany provided an upside surprise.

12 Dec 2019 Spare a Moment for Ms. Lagarde, as We Await the Final U.K. Polls (Publication Centre)

The U.K. general election is the main event in today's European calendar, but the first official ECB meeting and press conference under the leadership of Ms. Lagarde also deserves attention.

12 Dec 2019 China's Economic Targets will Remain a Political Affair for 2020 (Publication Centre)

China concludes its annual Central Economic Work Conference today, where the economic targets and the agenda for next year are set.

11 Sept 2019 The Labour Market no Longer Looks Bulletproof (Publication Centre)

A cursory glance at July's labour market report gives no cause for alarm. The headline, three-month average, unemployment rate returned to 3.8% in July, after edging up to 3.9% in June.

11 Sept 2019 Is the Industrial Sector in France Running out of Luck in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in France rebounded only modestly at the start of Q3, despite favourable base effects.

11 Oct 2019 Q3 GDP Set to Grow at Double the Rate Anticipated by the MPC (Publication Centre)

The latest GDP data continue to show that the economy is holding up well, despite the Brexit saga.

11 Oct 2019 No Light at the End of the Tunnel for Japan's Capex Slowdown (Publication Centre)

Business investment in Japan took a nasty hit in the third quarter.

11 Oct 2019 It's a Close Call, but we Still Think Germany was in Recession in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were ugly.

11 October 2017 Hard Data Suggest German GDP Growth Slowed Slightly in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Germany's nominal external surplus rebounded smartly over the summer, but real net trade looks set to be a drag on Q3 GDP growth, again. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus increased to €21.6B in August from a revised €19.3B in July.

11 October 2017 Weak GDP Growth in Q3 Suggests a November Hike isn't a Done Deal (Publication Centre)

The Office for National Statistics yesterday released the last major batch of output data before the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP is published on October 25, just one week before the MPC's key meeting.

11 Sept 2019 China's PPI Deflation isn't all Commodity-Driven (Publication Centre)

China's PPI deflation deepened in August, with prices dropping 0.8% year-over-year, after a 0.3% decline in July.

11 October. 2016 German Exports Came Roaring Back in August, After a Weak July (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German trade data showed that the external surplus recovered in August, following its poor start to Q3. The seasonally-adjusted trade surplus rose to €22.2B, from €19.4B in July.

12 Feb 2020 How Much Spending will China's Retail Sector Lose this Year (Publication Centre)

In previous Monitors--see here--we've suggested that, thanks to the coronavirus, China simply will lose some of the spending that would have gone on during the holiday this year.

12 Feb 2020 What on Earth Happened in the Spanish Economy in Q4 (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, the Spanish economy conformed to its image as the star performer in the EZ in Q4.

12 March 2019 The Data are Choppy, but Chinese Monetary Conditions are Loosening (Publication Centre)

Monetary policy loosening over the last year implies that China's M1 growth already should be picking up.

12 Mar 2020 The ECB will Deliver, a Rate Cut, More QE and TLTROs are Coming (Publication Centre)

The Fed paved the way with a 50bp emergency rate cut on March 3, with more to come.

12 Mar 2020 China's Money and Credit Data Show No Room for Complacency (Publication Centre)

China's money and credit data for February were reassuring, at least when compared with the doomsday scenario painted, so far, by other key indicators for last month.

12 May 2020 Brace for a GDP Drop of About 2.5% in Q1, Despite the Late Lockdown (Publication Centre)

The Q1 GDP figures, released on Wednesday, likely will show that the quarter-on-quarter decline in economic activity eclipsed the biggest decline in the 2008-to-09 recession--2.1% in Q4 2008--even though the U.K. went into lockdown towards the very end of the quarter.

12 Nov 2019 China's October Money Data Mean a 2020 GDP Growth Downgrade (Publication Centre)

We have downgraded our 2019 and 2020 China GDP forecasts on previous occasions because monetary conditions have been surprisingly unresponsive to lower short-term rates.

12 November 2018 Mexico's Industrial Sector did Well in Q3, but Politics are a Threat for 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy gathered strength in Q3, due mainly to the strength of the services sector, and the rebound in manufacturing, following a long period of sluggishness, helped by the solid U.S. economy and improving domestic confidence.

12 Nov. 2015 NFIB Points to Rising Capex, and Modest Increases in Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

To the extent that markets bother with the NFIB survey at all, most of the attention falls on the labor market numbers. But these data--hiring, compensation, jobs hard-to-fill--haven't changed much in recent months, and in any event most of them are released the week before the main survey, which appeared yesterday. The message from the labor data is unambiguous: Hiring remains very strong, employers are finding it very difficult to fill open positions, and compensation costs are accelerating.

12 June 2020 Main Capex Pinch in Japan will be in Q3, Stimulus Cushion is Limited (Publication Centre)

Core machine orders in Japan collapsed in April, as expected, falling by 12.0% month-on-month, worse than the minor 0.4% slip in March.

12 June 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Took Another Big Step Towards Zero in May (Publication Centre)

We expect May's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that the headline rate of CPI inflation fell to a four-year low of 0.4% in May, from 0.8% in April.

12 February 2019 GDP Likely Will Still Rise Marginally in Q1, Despite December's Dip (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the latest GDP data look awful. December's 0.4% month-to-month fall in GDP closed a poor Q4, in which quar ter-on-quarter growth slowed to 0.2%, from 0.6% in Q3.

12 February 2018 Chinese Inflation Moderates but Real Incomes are Under Pressure (Publication Centre)

Chinese CPI inflation trends point to diminishing wage growth, as the services sector begins to struggle with the influx of labour displaced by the industrial productivity drive.

12 Feb. 2016 Mexico's Industrial Economy Struggled in Q4 - Better Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Mexican industrial data painted a downbeat picture of the sector at the end of last year, and highlighted the downside risks facing the economy in the first half of this year. Industrial output fell 0.1% month-to-month and was flat year over-year in December, with weakness in all sectors except manufacturing. Overall, industrial activity expanded by only 0.2% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, the slowest pace since late 2013.

12 Jan. 2016 Why are Payroll Gains So Strong Relative to GDP Growth? (Publication Centre)

The combination of astounding fourth quarter payroll numbers and weak GDP growth has prompted a good deal of bemused head-scratching among investors and the commentariat. The contrast is startling, with Q4 private payrolls averaging 276K, a 2.4% annualized rate of increase, while the initial estimate for growth seems likely close to 1%. Even on a year-over-year basis, stepping back from the quarterly noise, Q4 growth is likely to be only 2% or so.

12 July 2019 What's Behind China's Likely 0.2pp Slippage in Q2 Real GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

China's Q2 official GDP growth, to be released on Monday, likely slowed to 6.2% year-over-year, from 6.4% in Q1.

12 June 2019 Rising Wage Growth Bolsters the Case for Gradual Rate Hikes (Publication Centre)

The case for continuing to increase Bank Rate gradually--recently reiterated by MPC members Andy Haldane and Michael Saunders-- strengthened yesterday with the release of April's labour market report, which revealed renewed momentum in wage growth.

12 June 2019 EZ Equities are at the Mercy of Multiple Expansion in H2 (Publication Centre)

Judging by the headline performance metrics, EZ equity investors have little cause for worry.

13 Nov 2019 Will Politicians in Spain Face up to Reality This Time Around? (Publication Centre)

The political situation in Spain remains an odd example of how complete gridlock can be a source of relative stability.

13 Nov. 2015 Mexican Domestic Industrial Sectors Offset External Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Mexican manufacturing data continue to offer a counterweight to strong consumers' spending and services numbers. Output in the key manufacturing sector contracted by 0.2% month-to-month in September, due mainly to severe external headwinds. But the year-over-year rate was unchanged at 3.3%, with a flat underlying trend. Total industrial output, by contrast, rose 0.4% month-to-month in September, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.7%, from an upwardly-revised 1.1% gain in August.

14 Sept 2020 Enough Fuel has Been Spent to Power China's Recovery into 2021 (Publication Centre)

China's economic recovery over the next twelve months remains secure, barring another major outbreak of Covid-19 domestically, or another synchronised lockdown globally.

14 Oct. 2015 Stable Manufacturing, but External Risks Are Still Present (Publication Centre)

Mexican industrial production data for August were a little stronger-than-expected. Output rose 1.0% year-over-year, for the second consecutive month, and marginally higher than the 0.6% average growth in the second quarter. The rise in production in August is encouraging, especially the strong manufacturing component, which accounts for about half of all output.

14 Oct 2020 The VAT Cut isn't the Only Drag on German Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

In a world where the ECB is inclined to ease first and ask questions later, yesterday's detailed German inflation data gave further indication that more stimulus is on the way.

14 September. 2016 Brazil's Soft July Retail Sales Don't Change the Improving Trend (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian consumer will continue to suffer from high interest rates and a deteriorating labour market this year. But sentiment data imply that the fundamentals are stabilising, at least at the margin. The headline consumer sentiment gauge, published by the FGV, has improved significantly in the past five months, and we expect another modest increase later this month

15 Apr 2020 An Advance Guide to Next Week's Data, They'll Be Grim (Publication Centre)

The U.K. Monitor will be on a short break soon for paternity leave, so we are taking this opportunity to preview next week's data releases.

15 Apr 2020 China's Import Outperformance Likely Reflects Early Q1 Strength (Publication Centre)

China's unadjusted March trade balance rebounded to a surplus of $20B, from a combined deficit of -$7B in the first two months of the year.

15 Apr 2020 Brazil's Economy will Rebound in Q3, but Bad Virus Policy is a Risk (Publication Centre)

The hard economic data in Brazil were relatively solid while we were off last week, supporting our view that the economy was experiencing a good spell at the start of the year just before the coronavirus hit.

14 Oct 2020 China's Import Surge is All About Catch-up and Commodity Prices (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus plunged unexpectedly in September, to $37B, marking the lowest level since March.

14 Oct 2019: A Brexit Deal with a NI-Only Backstop won't get Through this HoC (Publication Centre)

Sterling leapt to $1.27, from $1.22 last week, amid some positive signals from all sides engaged in Brexit talks.

14 November 2017 Mexico's Manufacturing Remains Resilient, but NAFTA Risk is High (Publication Centre)

LatAm's economies are starting to expand at a relatively healthy pace, inflation is more or less under control and near-term growth prospects are positive.

14 November 2017 Are Investors Complacent to Expect a Smooth Brexit Transition in 2019? (Publication Centre)

Sterling weakened yesterday, to $1.31 from $1.32, following news that 40 Conservative MPs have agreed to sign a letter of no-confidence in the Prime Minister.

14 Nov 2019 Japan's PPI Underscores More Muted Impact of Tax Hike on Prices (Publication Centre)

Japan's PPI data yesterday confirmed that October was a turning point for prices--due to the consumption tax hike--despite the surprising stability of CPI inflation in Tokyo for the same month.

14 November 2017 Poor EZ Production Data Won't Dent Second Q3 GDP Estimate (Publication Centre)

Soft September data in Germany and Italy suggest that today's industrial production report in the Eurozone will be poor. Our first chart shows that data from the major EZ economies point to a 0.8% month-to- month fall in September.

14 November 2018 German GDP Growth Crashed in Q3, but Inflation is Firming (Publication Centre)

We remain confident--see here--that today's Q3 GDP report in Germany will be a shocker, but this already is priced-in by markets.

14 Oct 2019 Resilient Consumption in Brazil, Manufacturing in Mexico Slowing (Publication Centre)

Hard data for Brazil and Mexico, released last week, support the case for further interest rate cuts.

14 Oct 2019 RBI Beware... Inflation in India will Soon Flirt with the 4% Target (Publication Centre)

Today's CPI report from India should raise the pressure on the RBI to abandon its aggressive easing, which has resulted in 135 basis points worth of rate cuts since February.

15 Apr. 2016 Downside Risk to March Output, but Worst is Over - Gains Ahead (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the uptick in the March ISM manufacturing survey, we think today's official production data for the same month are likely to disappoint. Our model of the month-to-month output numbers incorporates the ISM data, but it is substantially driven by manufacturing hours worked, which fell in both February and March.

15 April 2019 And Breathe Chinese Monetary Conditions are Loosening (Publication Centre)

In the last two months, we have suggested that monetary conditions have turned the corner, but have cautioned that Lunar New Year distortions make the March data critically important.

15 January 2019 China's Trade Data will get Nastier but Expect a V-Shaped Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's December foreign trade numbers were unpleasant, with both exports and imports falling year-over-year, after rising, albeit slowly in November.

15 January 2018 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Unresponsive, but Q1 Will be Better (Publication Centre)

Upbeat survey data, a competitive MXN, and the strong U.S. manufacturing sector indicate that Mexican industry should be rebounding.

15 Jan 2020 The Rise in Continuing Jobless Claims is No Cause for Concern (Publication Centre)

The weekly jobless claims numbers are due Thursday, as usual, but in the wake of a flood of emails from readers, all asking a variant of the same question-- should we be worried about the rise in continuing jobless claims?--we want to address the issue now.

15 July 2019 Early Resolution to the Debt Ceiling would Raise Growth Forecasts (Publication Centre)

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's five-line letter to House Speaker Pelosi on last Friday--copied to other Congressional leaders--which said that "there is a scenario in which we run out of cash in early September, before Congress reconvenes", introduces a new element of uncertainty to the debt ceiling story.

15 July 2019 Jump in EZ Industrial Output in May won't be Sustained (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in the Eurozone stood tall mid-way through Q2, despite still-subdued leading indicators.

15 July 2020 China's Trade Surplus will Continue to Come Back Down to Earth (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus plunged to $46.4B in June, from $62.9B in May, largely in line with our below- consensus forecast.

15 July 2019 The MPC is Set to Delay for Longer, but Procrastination has a Price (Publication Centre)

We are pushing back our forecast for the next rise in Bank Rate to May 2020, from the tail-end of this year.

15 Jan 2020 Chinese Trade Ends 2019 Strongly, but the Surplus Still is Narrowing (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus jumped to a six-month high of $46.8B in December, from $37.6B in November, on the back of a strong increase in exports.

15 February 2019 Seasonal Problems and Sampling Error Explain December's Sales Drop (Publication Centre)

We can't remember the last time a single economic report was as surprising as the December retail sales numbers, released yesterday.

15 August 2017 China's Boomlet Causes Volatility for Japan, Second Half to Weaken (Publication Centre)

Japanese real Q2 GDP growth surprised analysts, increasing sharply to a quarterly annualised rate of 4.0%, up from 1.0% in Q1 and much higher than the consensus, 2.5%. But its no coincidence that the jump in Japanese growth follows strong growth in China in Q1.

15 August 2017 The German Economy Fired on All Cylinders in the First Half of 2017 (Publication Centre)

Today's advance Q2 GDP report in Germany will add evidence that the EZ economy performed strongly in the first half of 2017. We can be pretty sure that the headline will be robust. The German statistical office reports a confidential number to Eurostat for the first estimate of EZ GDP--two weeks ahead of today's data--which was a solid 0.6%.

15 Aug 2019 Germany's Economy is in Trouble, but the EZ as a Whole is Stable (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data showed that growth in the EZ slowed in the second quarter.

15 December 2016 EZ Manufacturing will Recover Quickly from its Poor Start to Q4 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone manufacturers had an underwhelming start to Q4. Data yesterday showed that production fell 0.1% month-to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.6%, from a revised 1.3% in September. Output was constrained mostly by weakness in France and a big month-to-month fall in Ireland, which offset marginal gains in Germany and Spain.

15 December 2017 The ECB's forecasts are wishful thinking (Publication Centre)

The ECB did its utmost not to say or do anything remotely novel today. The central bank kept its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged at 0.00% and -0.40%, respectively, and reiterated its plan for QE next year.

15 February 2017 The EZ Economy is Resilient, but Fell Short of Expectations in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy was resilient at the end of last year, but yesterday's reports indicated that growth was less buoyant than markets expected. Real GDP in the euro area rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, the same pace as in Q3, but slightly less than the initial estimate 0.5%.

15 Feb. 2016 Upbeat Q4 GDP Headline, but Private Demand Likely Slowed (Publication Centre)

Eurozone GDP data last Friday suggest the cyclical recovery continued at the end of last year. Real GDP in euro area rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, the same as in Q3, lifted by growth in all the major economies. This was in line with the consensus forecast, but noticeably higher than implied by monthly industrial production and retail sales data.

14 Nov 2019 EZ Industrial Production Fell in Q3, and Likely Will Slide Again in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in the EZ was held above water by Ireland at the end of Q3.

14 May 2020 Korea's Stable Unemployment Rate Belies the Ongoing Virus Hit to Jobs (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate was unchanged in April, at 3.8%, beating even our below-consensus forecast for only a minor uptick, to 3.9%.

14 August 2017 China's Slowdown Surprised Japan, Inventories to Boost Q2 GDP (Publication Centre)

Japanese domestic demand probably strengthened in Q2, with both private consumption and fixed investment accelerating. Trade and inventories are the key swing components for GDP growth.

14 Apr. 2016 The Eurozone's Manufacturing Outperformance Likely Won't Last (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in the euro area dipped in February. Output fell 0.8% month-to-month pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.8% from a revised 2.9% in January. This indicates that Eurozone manufacturing continues to lag the pace seen in previous business cycle upturns.

13 Sept 2019 Korea's Jobs Surprise... the Higher they Rise, the Harder they Fall (Publication Centre)

Korea's jobs report for August was a stonker, with unemployment plunging to 3.1%, from 4.0% in July, marking the lowest rate in more than five years.

23 August. 2016 Mexico Struggled at the end of the First Half - Will it Rebound? (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy shrank by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, according to the final GDP report, a tenth better than the preliminary reading. The year-over-year rate rose marginally to 2.5% from 2.4% in Q1. But the year-over-year data are not seasonally adjusted, understating the slowdown in the first half of the year, as shown in our first chart.

14 December 2018 Japan's Trade Deficit will soon Diminish, but not in November (Publication Centre)

Data released earlier this week show that Japan's current account surplus continued its downtrend in October, falling to ¥1,404B, on our seasonal adjustment, from ¥1,494B in September.

14 Feb 2020 Banxico Cuts Rates, Brazil's Domestic Demand Eased in Q4 (Publication Centre)

It was no surprise that Banxico cut its policy rate by 25bp to 7.00% yesterday, following similar moves in August, September, November and December.

14 December 2018 Look Behind the Headlines for the Real Retail and Industrial Stories (Publication Centre)

We argued earlier this week that the data on the consumer economy are likely to be rather stronger than the industrial numbers.

13 October. 2016 EZ Industrial Production Rebounded Only Modestly in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday EZ industrial production report confirmed the message from advance country data that manufacturing rebounded towards the end of summer. Output, ex-construction, jumped 1.6% month-to-month in August, and the July data were revised up by 0.4 percentage points.

13 October 2017 Eurozone GDP Growth Likely Slowed in Q3, but Only Sligh tly (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector likely was the primary driver of Q3 GDP growth in the Eurozone. Data yesterday showed that industrial production rose 1.4% month-to-month in August, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 3.8%, from a revised 3.6% in July.

13 November 2017 Chinese Producer Price Increases Are Finally Slowing (Publication Centre)

Overall, the Chinese October data paint a picture of continued weakness in trade, with PPI inflation still high but the rate of increase finally slowing.

13 Nov. 2015 Will the Drag on the Recovery From Construction Fade? (Publication Centre)

The underlying health of the construction sector isn't as poor as today's official output figures likely will imply. Nonetheless, growth in construction output, which accounts for 6% of GDP, probably won't return to the stellar rates seen in 2013 and 2014, and the sector can't be relied upon to provide much support to overall growth.

13 Nov. 2015 Soft Q3 GDP Data to Pave the Way for More Monetary Easing (Publication Centre)

Industrial production data yesterday confirmed downside risks to today's GDP data in the Eurozone. Output fell 0.3% month-to-month in September, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.7% from a revised 2.2% in August. Weakness in Germany was the main culprit, amid stronger data in the other major economies. A GDP estimate based on available data for industrial production and retail sales point to a quarterly growth rate of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, but we think growth was rather lower, just 0.2%, due to a drag from net trade.

13 November 2018 Will Poor Sentiment and Political Uncertainty Knock EZ Investment (Publication Centre)

The outlook for private investment in the Eurozone has deteriorated this year, especially in manufacturing.

13 Oct 2020 Mexico's Industrial Recovery Continues, but Momentum is Slowing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Mexican industrial production report was downbeat for manufacturing, but revealed that the oil and public construction sectors are starting to show some signs of life, after a challenging first half of the year.

13 October 2017 Brazilian Consumption is Picking Up, Despite August's Poor Data (Publication Centre)

Brazil's retail sales data undershot consensus in August, falling by 0.5% after four straight gains. But we think this merely a temporary softening, following the strong performance in recent months.

13 Oct 2020 The Worst is Over for Japan's Capex Slump, but No Recovery is in Sight (Publication Centre)

Core machine orders in Japan surprised to the upside in August, when the country's second wave of Covid-19 peaked.

14 Feb 2020 Japan's Q4 GDP Likely Plunged, Covid-19 Spells Recession (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP likely dropped by a huge 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, after the 0.5% increase in Q3, with risks skewed firmly to the downside.

14 Feb 2020 Javid's Resignation Opens the Door to Bolder Fiscal Stimulus (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Javid's resignation, only eight months after assuming the role, is the clearest sign yet that the Johnson-led government wants fiscal policy to play a bigger part in stimulating the economy over the next couple of years.

14 June 2019 If the BoK Blinks--and Cuts--it Would be Ignoring Better Data (Publication Centre)

Korea watchers appear to be hanging on Governor Lee Ju-yeol's every word, searching for any sign that he'll drop his hawkish pursuit of more sustainable household debt levels and prioritise short-term growth concerns.

14 July 2020 PAYE Data to Show Employment Continued to Fall in June (Publication Centre)

We're bracing for another ugly set of labour market data on Thursday, showing that both employment and earnings fell sharply in May and June.

14 July 2020 India's Industrial Bounce won't get Much Help from Weak Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The year-over-year collapse of industrial production in India eased substantially in May, to -35%, from -58% in April, close to our -32% forecast.

14 June 2019 Johnson is a Shoo-In For the Final Round, but He'll Face a Soft Brexiteer (Publication Centre)

After the first round of voting by Tory MPs, Boris Johnson remains the clear favourite to be the next Prime Minister.

14 March 2018 Fundamentals for Brazilian Consumers Continue to Improve (Publication Centre)

The consumer in Brazil was off to a strong start to the first quarter, and we expect household spending will continue to boost GDP growth in the near term.

14 May 2020 Brace for a hit to EZ Manufacturing Employment and Investment (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data provided further evidence of the damage wrought on the EZ at the end of Q1.

14 March 2019 EZ Industrial Production is on Track for a Small Increase in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ industrial production data for January confirmed the string of positive advance numbers from most of the individual economies.

14 July 2017 Ignore the Headline Trade Numbers, Chinese Growth is Slowing (Publication Centre)

China's headline trade numbers appear to paint a picture of an economy in rude health but scratch the surface and the story is quite different. The trade surplus rose to$42.8B in June from $40.8B in May, hitting consensus.

14 January 2019 November's Pick up in GDP Growth is Noise, not Signal (Publication Centre)

A cursory glance at November's GDP report gives the misleading impression that the U.K. economy is ticking over nicely, despite Brexit.

14 Jan 2020 A Recap of the Main Story in the EZ before the First Q1 Data (Publication Centre)

The EZ calendar has been extremely busy in the first few weeks of the year, making it virtually impossible to see the forest for the trees.

14 February 2017 Global Manufacturing Picks Up Pace, Are Good News for LatAm? (Publication Centre)

More evidence indicating that the recovery in global industrial activity is underway and gaining momentum- has poured in. In particular, trade data from China, one of LatAm's biggest trading partners, was stronger than the market expected last month. Both commodity import and export volumes increased sharply in January, and this suggests better economic conditions for China's key trading partners.

14 February 2017 Will Today's EZ GDP Report Overcome Poor German Data? (Publication Centre)

All eyes in the Eurozone will be on the second estimate of Q4 GDP today, and the report likely will confirm that growth accelerated in Q4. We think real GDP rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, up from a 0.3% increase in Q3, in line with the first estimate. If this forecast is correct, the year-over-year rate will be unchanged at 1.8%. Risks to the headline, however, are tilted to the downside.

14 Jan 2020 Don't Read November's GDP Report in Isolation (Publication Centre)

Investors concluded too hastily yesterday that November's GDP report boosted the chances that the MPC will cut Bank Rate at its upcoming meeting on January 30.

14 Jan 2020 Early Signs of an IP Recovery in India Build the Case for the RBI's Pause (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in India turned around sharply in November, rising by 1.8% year-over-year, following October's 4.0% plunge and beating the consensus forecast for a trivial 0.3% uptick.

14 January 2019 Inflation in Brazil is Still Benign, but the Outlook Will Depend on Politics (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil ended 2018 under control, despite slightly overshooting expectations.

14 Jan 2020 Inflation in Brazil Ended 2019 Above the BCB's Target - 2020 will be Fine (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil Ended 2019 Above the BCB's Target; 2020 will be Fine

11 Nov 2019 German Net Exports fell in Q3, but less than in Q2, No recession then (Publication Centre)

Friday's data force us to walk back our recession call for Germany. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose in September, to €19.2B from €18.7B in August, lifted by a 1.5% month-to-month jump in exports, and the previous months' numbers were revised up significantly.

11 Nov 2019 Signs of Stabilisation in Chinese Trade, but don't Get too Excited (Publication Centre)

China's October foreign trade headlines beat expectations, but the year-over-year numbers remain grim, with imports falling 6.4%, only a modest improvement from the 8.5% tumble in September.

1 June. 2016 Mounting Evidence of a Peak in the EZ Business Cycle This Year (Publication Centre)

Money supply data in the euro area disappointed yesterday. Growth in M3 fell to 4.6% year-over-year in April, from 5.0% in March, due to an accelerated fall in the pace of narrow money growth. M1 rose 9.7% year-over-year, down from 10.1% in March. It was hit by lower growth in both overnight deposits and currency in circulation.

1 June. 2016 ISM Set to Slip Below 50, but Will the Fed Care Enough to Hold Fire? (Publication Centre)

When the Fed raised rates in December, it subverted one of its own long-standing conventions by hiking with the ISM manufacturing index below 50. The December survey, released just 15 days before the meeting, showed the headline index slipping to 48.6, the third straight sub-50 reading. It has since been revised down to 48.0, the lowest reading since June 2009.

1 June. 2016 Chile's Domestic Demand Growth to Slow in Q2, A fter a Solid Q1 (Publication Centre)

Chile's April retail sales data, released on Monday, show that private consumption started the second quarter on a solid footing. Sales rose 3.0% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-rate up to 7.9% from 1.4% in March and an average of 4.0% in Q1. The headline was boosted by a favourable calendar effect, as April this year had two more trading days than April 2015.

1 March 2018 Don't Extrapolate Januarys Core PCE Deflator (Publication Centre)

All eyes today will be on the core PCE deflator for January, following the unexpectedly large 0.3% increase in the core CPI.

1 March 2019 Slightly Disappointing Brazil Q4 GDP Data Point to Greater Slack (Publication Centre)

Brazil's GDP growth slowed to just 0.1% quarter- on-quarter in Q4, from a downwardly-revised 0.5% in Q3.

1 May 2019 What Will Chair Powell say About Strong Q1 Growth and Low Inflation (Publication Centre)

The FOMC meeting today will be a non-event from a policy perspective but we are very curious to see what both the written statement and the Chair will have to say about the unexpected strength of the economy in the first quarter.

1 May 2019 The Eurozone Economy Defied the Pessimists in the First Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic headlines in the Eurozone were pleasant reading.

1 May 2017 Ignore the Weak Q1 GDP Numbers -- they Cannot be Trusted (Publication Centre)

If you apply a seasonal adjustment to a seasonally adjusted series, it shouldn't change. When you apply a seasonal adjustment to the U.S. GDP numbers, they do change. First quarter growth, reported Friday at just 0.7%, goes up to 1.7%, on our estimate.

1 June. 2015 Modest Slowdown Likely Ahead for Consumers' Spending in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Last week's consumption releases were the first data from the real economy in the second quarter. In Germany, retail sales jumped 1.7% month-to-month in April, equivalent to a 1.0% rise year-over-year, an impressive start to the quarter. But our first chart shows that this still points to a moderate slowdown in Q2, consistent with mean-reversion following rapid gains in Q4 and Q1.

1 June 2020 The Saving Rate has Peaked, but Consumers have a Lot of Firepower (Publication Centre)

The entire 10.5% increase in personal income in April, reported on Friday, was due to the direct stimulus payments made to households under the CARES Act.

1 July 2020 Q1 GDP Weaker than First Thought, Amid Rapid Consumer Retrenchment (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national accounts showed that the downturn in the economy on the eve of the Covid-19 outbreak was sharper than first estimated.

1 July 2020 French Households Rushed to the Store as the Economy Reopened (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ data showed that French households came out swinging as the economy reopened. Consumers' spending, ex-services, jumped by 36.6% month-to-month in May, driving the year-over-year rate up to -8.3%, from -32.7% in April.

1 February 2018 Firmer Fed Language on Growth, Inflation, Tees-up the March hike (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's FOMC statement was a bit more upbeat on growth than we expected, with Janet Yellen's final missive describing everything -- economic growth, employment, household spending, and business investment -- as "solid".

1 July. 2016 Manufacturing Activity Has Levelled-Off - Better News Ahead (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector is much more exposed to external forces--the dollar, and global growth--than the rest of the economy. But much of the slowdown in the sector over the past year-and-a-half, we think, can be traced back to the impact of plunging oil prices on capital spending in the sector.

1 June 2017 ADP Likely to Rebound Strongly, but Probably Will Overstate Payrolls (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a strong-looking 225K increase in the May ADP measure of private sector payroll growth, due today. The consensus forecast is 180K.

1 June 2020 The Brazilian Economy Collapsed in Q1, but Much Worse is to Come (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days have started to reveal a story of horror and misery in the Brazilian economy.

1 June 2020 Abysmal April Sets the Stage for Japan's Nightmare Q2 (Publication Centre)

Japan's main activity data for April were massively disappointing, presaging the sharper GDP contraction we expect in Q2, compared with Q1.

1 May 2020 Only a Modest Loosening of the Lockdown Looks Sustainable (Publication Centre)

Britain is indisputably beyond the peak of the first wave of Covid-19 infections, though the descent in new cases, hospitalisations and deaths has been shallower than the ascent.

1 Nov 2019 New Forecasts to Show Government on Course to Break its Fiscal Rule (Publication Centre)

The Office for Budget Responsibility has decided to press ahead with the publication of new fiscal forecasts on November 7, despite the government's decision to postpone the Budget until after the next election.

1 Sep 2020 Don't Expect LatAm's Output to Reach Pre-Covid Levels this Year (Publication Centre)

The worst of the pandemic seems to be over in many countries in LatAm, allowing a gradual reopening of their economies.

1 Sep 2020 Decent Data Today won't Change the Deteriorating Q4 Outlook (Publication Centre)

Today brings a raft of data which mostly will look quite positive but will do nothing to assuage our fears over a sharp slowdown in growth in the fourth quarter.

1 October 2018 The 14-year High in the ISM Likely Can't Hold, Expect a Correction (Publication Centre)

The case for believing that August's unexpected 14-year high in the ISM manufacturing index was a fluke is pretty straightforward, and it has both short and medium-term elements.

1 Sep 2020 EZ Core Inflation will Undershoot the Consensus Today (Publication Centre)

Advance country data suggest that EZ inflation fell less than we expected last month, though we are still looking for a significant undershoot in the August core rate.

10 April 2019 Headline Data will Hide the Extent of China's Q1 GDP Weakness (Publication Centre)

Official Chinese real GDP growth likely slipped to 6.3% year-over-year in Q1, the lowest on record, from 6.4% in Q4, which matched the trough in the Great Financial Crisis.

10 Aug 2020 June Data to Mark the Start of the Surge in Unemployment (Publication Centre)

This week's labour market data likely will show that the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme did not prevent a rising tide of redundancies in response to Covid-19.

10 Aug 2020 German and French Manufacturing Finished Q2 on a Strong Note (Publication Centre)

Friday's manufacturing and trade data added to the evidence of a solid rebound in the EZ economy at the end of Q2, as lockdowns were lifted.

1 October 2018 Data Confirm Softer Q3 in Disaster- Hit Japan, but it's not all Bad News (Publication Centre)

A firmer picture is emerging of how Japan's economy fared in Q3, in light of the latest slew of data for August.

1 Oct 2019 ISM Manufacturing Likely Rose a bit in September, but it Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

The obsession of markets and the media with the industrial sector means that today's ISM manufacturing survey will be scrutinized far more closely than is justified by its real importance.

1 Nov 2019 Where's the Fire, The EZ Economy is Weak, but also Stabilising (Publication Centre)

The more headline hard data we see in the Eurozone, the more we are getting the impression that 2019 is the year of stabilisation, rather than a precursor to recession.

1 Nov 2019 The Thought of a Rate Cut Spooks the BoJ into a Parallel Dimension (Publication Centre)

The BoJ yesterday kept the policy balance rate at -0.1%, and the 10-year yield target at "around zero", in line with the consensus.

1 Nov 2019 Payrolls Set for GM Hit, but the Trend is Slowing too, with Worse to Come (Publication Centre)

We expect to see a 70K increase in October payrolls today.

1 November 2017 2017 Eurozone Macroeconomic Data Don't get Much Better than this (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a nearly perfect day for investors in the Eurozone. The Q3 GDP data were robust, unemployment fell, and core inflation dipped slightly, vindicating markets' dovish outlook for the ECB.

1 November 2017 BoJ Signals Intransigence as Global Central Banks Tighten (Publication Centre)

The BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged yesterday, as expected, with the signal coming through loud and clear: Japan's central bank will continue its aggressive easing policy until the inflation cows come home...

1 November 2018 Productivity Growth is Rising the Fed's r-star Will Have to Climb too (Publication Centre)

On the heels of yesterday's benign Q3 employment costs data--wages rebounded but benefit costs slowed, and a 2.9% year-over-year rate is unthreatening--today brings the first estimates of productivity growth and unit labor costs.

1 November 2018 More Trick and Less Treat as the BoJ Leaves Market Hanging (Publication Centre)

The BoJ kept policy unchanged, as expected, at its meeting yesterday.

1 December. 2016 ISM Set to Show that Manufacturing is Recovering, Albeit Slowly (Publication Centre)

We have lost count of the number of times the drop in the ISM manufacturing survey, in the wake of the plunge in oil prices, was a harbinger o f recession across the whole economy. It wasn't, because the havoc wreaked in the industrial economy by the collapse in capital spending in the oil sector was contained.

1 December 2017 Relapse in Confidence Signals the Economy is Only Muddling Through (Publication Centre)

Economy-wide confidence deteriorated in November, highlighting that Britain continues to struggle to shake off its malaise.

05 Feb. 2016 The Strong Dollar is Supporting Mexico's Domestic Economy (Publication Centre)

Mexico's structural reforms, robust fundamentals, and its close ties to the U.S. should have conferred a degree of protection from the turmoil in EMs over the past year. But its markets have been hit as hard as other LatAm countries by the sell-off in global markets in recent weeks. The MXN fell about 5% against the USD in January alone, and has dropped by 20% over the last year.

04 October. 2016 Manufacturing Revival Bolsters Case for the MPC to Hold Fire (Publication Centre)

The odds of the MPC cutting interest rates again in November took another knock yesterday after further signs that the manufacturing sector is getting back on its feet quickly.

04 Feb. 2016 EZ Consumers' Spending Stalled in Q4, but Should Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday suggest Eurozone consumers' spending rebounded towards the end of Q4. Retail sales rose 0.3% month-to-month in December, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.4%, from a revised 1.6% in November. A +0.3 percentage point net revision to the month-to-month data added to the optimism, but was not enough to prevent a slowdown over the quarter as a whole.

05 Jan. 2016 Don't be Tricked by Fall in German Inflation - the Dip will be Temporary (Publication Centre)

Advance data suggest German inflation pressures eased towards the end of last year. Inflation fell to 0.3% year-over-year in December from 0.4% in November, likely due to a fall in food inflation--mean reversion in fruit and vegetables inflation--and a sharp fall in the annual price increase of clothing and shoes. State data indicate that deflation in household utilities persisted, but that inflation of fuel and transportation is slowly recovering. Assuming a stable oil price in coming months, base effects should push up energy price inflation in the first quarter, though it should then fall again slightly in the second quarter. Overall, though, we expect energy price inflation gradually to stabilise and recover this year.

05 Jan. 2016 ISM Manufacturing Shouldn't Fall Further, Seasonals Permitting (Publication Centre)

The first major data release of 2016 showed manufacturing activity slipping a bit further at the end of last year, but we doubt the underlying trend in the ISM manufacturing index will decline much more. Anything can happen in any given month, especially in data where the seasonal adjustments are so wayward, but the key new orders and production indexes both rose in January; almost all the decline in the headline index was due to a drop in the lagging employment index.

06 Jan. 2016 Chile's Economic Recovery is Still Fragile And China-Dependent (Publication Centre)

Chile's economic outlook is still clouded, due mostly to the slowdown in China and low copper prices. But the steady, slow increase in the Imacec index, a monthly proxy for GDP, supports our view of a sustained but modest economic recovery this year. The index increased 1.8% year-over-year in November, marginally up from the meagre 1.5% gain in October, but below the 2.2% average seen during Q3 as a whole. November's gain was driven by an increase in services activity, offsetting weakness in mining. Services have been the key engine of growth in the current cycle and likely will remain so in H1.

05 October. 2016 Weakness in Brazil Industrial Production will be Temporary (Publication Centre)

The outlook for Brazil's industrial economy is better than at any time since before the crisis. But data released this week highlighted that the recovery will be slow and bumpy.

03 October. 2016 ISM Unlikely to Rebound Much, but Manufacturing is Not Shrinking (Publication Centre)

Today's September ISM manufacturing survey is one of the most keenly-awaited for some time. Was the unexpected plunge in August a one-time fluke--perhaps due to sampling error, or a temporary reaction to the Gulf Coast floods, or Brexit--or was it evidence of a more sustained downshift, possibly triggered by political uncertainty?

03 Mar. 2016 Construction Slowdown is Symptomatic of Wider Malaise (Publication Centre)

The revival in the construction sector is slowing on all fronts as the fiscal squeeze intensifies, business confidence fades and the recovery in housebuilding loses momentum. These headwinds are likely to ensure that construction output only holds steady this year, thereby contributing to the broader economic slowdown.

01 May. 2015 Fed doves on the defensive as wages break to the upside (Publication Centre)

The 0.7% first quarter increase in the ECI measure of private sector wages and salaries raised the year-over-year rate to 2.8%, the highest since late 2008 and significantly stronger than the 2.1% increase in hourly earnings in the year to March.

01 Mar. 2016 Worst is Over for Manufacturers, but no Real Rebound Yet (Publication Centre)

The worst is over for manufacturers, we think. The three major forces depressing activity in the sector last year--namely, the strong dollar, the slowdown in China, and the collapse in capital spending in the oil sector--will be much less powerful this year.

Andres Abadia

Andres Abadia authors our Latin American service. Andres is a native of Colombia and has many years' experience covering the global economy, with a particular focus on Latin America. In 2017, he won the Thomson Reuters Starmine Top Forecaster Award for Latam FX. Andres's research covers Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela, focusing on economic, political and financial developments. The countries of Latin America differ substantially in terms of structure, business cycle and politics, and Andres' researchhighlights the impact of these differences on currencies, interest rates and equity markets. He believes that most LatAm economies are heavily influenced by cyclical forces in the U.S. and China, as well as domestic policy shocks and local politics. He keeps a close eye on both external and domestic developments to forecast their effects on LatAm economies, monetary policy, and financial markets. Before starting to work at Pantheon Macroeconomics in 2013, Dr. Abadia was the Head of Research for Arcalia/Bancaja (now Bankia) in Madrid, and formerly Chief Economist for the same institution. Previously, he worked at Ahorro Coporacion Financiera, as an Economist. Andres earned a PhD in Applied Economics, and a Masters Degree in Economics and International Business Administration from Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, and a BSc in Economics from the Universidad Externado de Colombia.

02 Feb. 2016 First Quarter Consumption Will be Better - Weather Effects Will Help (Publication Centre)

The upward revisions to real consumers' spending in the fourth quarter, coupled with the likelihood of a hefty rebound in spending on utility energy services, means first quarter spending ought to rise at a faster pace than the 2.2% fourth quarter gain. Spending on utilities was hugely depressed in November and December by the extended spell of much warmer-than-usual weather.

02 Mar. 2016 Are Falling German Unemployment Claims too Good to be True? (Publication Centre)

Unemployment in the Eurozone fell to a 22-month low of 10.3% in January, from 10.4% in December, helped by a continued fall in Spain but underpinned by low unemployment in Germany.

03 Feb. 2016 Industrial Output Dived in Q4, But Reasons For Optimism in Brazil? (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic news this week remained bleak at the headline level, but some of the details were less terrible in than in recent months. Industrial production fell by a worse-than-expected 11.9% year-over-year in December, marginally up from the 12.4% drop in November.

03 Feb. 2016 Cyclical Optimism, but Structural Pessimism, on EZ Unemployment (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that the downward trend in Eurozone unemployment continued towards the end of last year. The unemployment rate fell to 10.4% in December from 10.5% in November, extending an almost uninterrupted decline which began in the first quarter of 2013.

06 May. 2015 Monthly Drop in Retail Sales Not Enough to Dent Spending in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Today's March retail sales report will likely disappoint, despite the already- downbeat consensus forecast of a 0.7% month-to-month fall. We think sales fell 1.2%, equivalent to a 1.3% increase year-over-year, due mostly to the bigger-than-expected 2.3% plunge in German sales, reported too late to be incorporated in the Bloomberg consensus.

06 October. 2016 Steady Growth in the Services Sector Undermines Rate Cut Case (Publication Centre)

September's Markit/CIPS services survey added to the evidence indicating that GDP growth softened, rather than fell off a cliff, in the third quarter. The activity index edged down only to 52.6, from 52.9 in August.

1 Apr 2020 Brazil and Chile Pre-Covid Data were Solid, but the Good News won't Last (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in LatAm are the last calm before the coronavirus storm.

1 Apr 2020 ADP Likely to Capture the Leading Edge of the Virus Hit to Jobs (Publication Centre)

Today's March ADP employment report likely will catch the leading edge of the wave of job losses triggered by the coronavirus.

09 Feb. 2016 How Robust is the Case for Expecting Lower Rates? (Publication Centre)

Investors currently think that official interest rates are more likely to fall than rise this year. Overnight index swap markets are factoring in a 30% chance of a rate cut by December, but just a 1% chance of an increase by year-end. The case for expecting looser monetary policy, however, remains unconvincing.

1 Apr 2020 Your Guide to the German Labour Market Data and Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's March labour market data in Germany were surprisingly strong

1 Apr. 2015 The Dollar is hurting exporters - more pain to come (Publication Centre)

The easiest way to track the impact of the rising dollar on real economic activity is via the export orders component of the ISM manufacturing survey. We have been profoundly skeptical of the value of the ISM headline index, because it suffers from substantial seasonal adjustment problems, but the export orders index seems not to be similarly afflicted.

1 Aug 2019 Trade Talks Restart China's Woes Will Help to Keep Them Going (Publication Centre)

Trade talks between the U.S. and China officially resumed this week, with the first face-to-face meeting of the main negotiators taking place yesterday in Shanghai.

1 April 2019 Recent Retail Sales Data Make Little Sense, Noise is Swamping the Signal (Publication Centre)

The underlying U.S. consumer story, hidden behind a good deal of recent noise, is that the rate of growth of spending is reverting to the trend in place before last year's tax cuts temporarily boosted people's cashflow.

08 Mar. 2016 Will German Manufacturing Continue to Flatline in Q1? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German factory orders data suggest that manufacturing remained weak in the beginning of Q1. New orders fell 0.1% month-to-month in January, though the year-over-year rate rose to 1.1% from a revised -2.2% in December. The small monthly decline was due to a fall in domestic orders; this offset an increase in export orders to other Eurozone economies.

08 Mar. 2016 Is the Economy Better Placed to Withstand the Fiscal Squeeze? (Publication Centre)

The consensus view that the recovery won't lose more momentum this year seems to assume that the U.K. economy is better placed to deal with the intensification of the fiscal squeeze than earlier this decade. We do not share this optimism.

07 Mar. 2016 Poor Q4 GDP Data Don't Signal the End of Italy's Cyclical Upturn (Publication Centre)

Final Italian Q4 GDP data on Friday confirmed that the economy stumbled at the year-end. Real GDP rose 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, slowing from 0.2% in Q3, in line with the initial es timate. But the details were better than the headline. Inventories shaved off a hefty 0.4 percentage points, reversing boosts in Q3 and Q2, so final demand rose a robust 0.5%. Consumption added 0.2pp, while public spending contributed 0.1pp.

07 Mar. 2016 Brazil's Economy Collapsed in 2015 - No Sign of Quick Recovery (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic news remained grim at the headline level last week, but some of the details were less bad than in recent months. Industrial production fell by 13.8% year-over-year in January, down from the 12.1% drop in December and the worst performance on this basis since mid-2009.

07 August. 2015 EZ GDP likely rose 0.4% quarteron- quarter in Q2 due to Ne t Trade (Publication Centre)

This is the final report before your Eurozone correspondent dials down for the summer, and heads for the beach. Advance Q2 GDP data next week is the key release while we are away, with the latest Bloomberg consensus--published July 20th--looking for a 0.4% increase quarter-on-quarter. Everything we look at suggests the consensus is right on this one, with risks tilted to the upside due to strong net exports in Germany.

07 Mar. 2016 Will the Chancellor's Rules Compel Him to Announce More Austerity? (Publication Centre)

The Budget on March 16 is set to mark the end of Chancellor George Osborne's lucky streak. Without corrective action, his self-imposed debt rule-- one of the two specified in the 'legally-binding' Charter for Budget Responsibility--looks set to be breached.

07 May. 2015 Inflation Expectations, not Greece, are Pushing EZ Yields Higher (Publication Centre)

Even though Greece managed to avert default yesterday by paying €200M in interest to the IMF, our assumption is that the country remains on the brink of running out of money. Our view is supported by the government's decision to expropriate local authority funds, and reports that the government's domestic liabilities, excluding wages and pensions, are not being met.

08 Feb. 2016 German Manufacturing likely Ended Q4 on a Weak Note (Publication Centre)

Demand in the German manufacturing sector stumbled at the end of Q4. Factory orders fell 0.7% month-to-month in December, but the details of the report were slightly more upbeat than the headline. The main hit came from a 2.5% fall in domestic orders, chiefly as a result of weakness in the intermediate goods sector.

07 October. 2016 Relief as New Orders in German Manufacturing Rise Strongly (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German factory orders report showed that manufacturing activity accelerated in August. New orders rose 1.0% month-to-month, after a 0.3% increase in July, pushing the year-over-year rate up to +2.1% from a revised -0.6%.

10 August 2017 Chinese Producer Price Inflation is Proving Sticky (Publication Centre)

Chinese PPI inflation was unchanged at 5.5% in July; it had been expected to rise modestly. Officially, inflation peaked at 7.8% in February, but we think this peak was artificially high, thanks to seasonal effects. The slowing in PPI inflation since the peak appears to suggest that monthly price gains have slowed sharply. We find little evidence to support this.

10 August. 2016 Surprise Rise in Brazil's Retail Sales, Fundamentals Remain Poor (Publication Centre)

Brazil's retail sales ended the second quarter on a less-bad footing. Sales volumes increased 0.1% month-to-month in June, pushing the year-over-year rate up to -5.3%, from -9.0% in May. Smoothed year-over-year growth in retail sales has improved to -7% from its cyclical trough of around -9% in the end of last year.

11 January 2018 Will France Reap the Rewards of Supply-Side Reforms in 2018? (Publication Centre)

Momentum in French manufacturing eased slightly in November, but the setback was modest. Industrial production dipped 0.5% month-to-month, only partially reversing the revised 1.7% jump in October.

11 January 2018 Chinese Manufacturing Goods Inflation Slows with Commodities (Publication Centre)

Chinese PPI inflation fell to 4.9% in December, from 5.8% in November. The decline was expected, but underneath the slowdown in commodity price inflation, the rate of increase of manufacturing goods prices is slowing sharply too.

11 Feb 2020 The Coronavirus will test the Policy Put's Effect on EZ Equities (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Sentix investor sentiment survey provided the first glimpse of conditions on the ground in the EZ economy in the wake of the coronavirus scare.

11 January 2019 How to Read the Recent Collapse in the EZ Economic Data (Publication Centre)

Economic data in the euro area are still slipping and sliding.

11 July 2018 Monthly GDP Data Tip the Balance Towards an August Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

The upturn in the new monthly measure of GDP in May, released yesterday, was strong enough--just--to suggest that the MPC likely will raise Bank Rate at its next meeting on August 2.

11 July 2018 Will the Strength of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Recent economic indicators in Mexico have been relatively positive.

11 July 2018 What Ailed French Manufacturers in the First Half of 2018 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's manufacturing data in France were in stark contrast to last week's upbeat German numbers.

11 Feb 2020 Phase One Trade Deal Trumped the Virus in China's January PPI (Publication Centre)

The clear threat to demand posed by the coronavirus and China's efforts at containment have sent a shock wave through commodities markets.

11 Feb 2020 Mexico's Leading Indicators Point to a Modest Upturn, but Risks Abound (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest forward-looking indicators are showing tentative signs of stabilisation in the wake of recent evidence that growth slowed quicker than markets have been expecting.

11 Dec 2019 Mexico's Leading Indicators Still Signal Tough Near-term Prospects (Publication Centre)

Recent activity data in Mexico have been soft and leading indicators still point to challenging near-term prospects, due mainly to relatively high domestic political risk, stifling interest rates and difficult external conditions.

11 Dec 2019 French Manufacturing is Headed for a Soft Q4, Despite a Solid Start (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in France remained on the front foot at the start of Q4.

11 Aug 2020 Britain's Recovery Likely Quickened in June, but Still Lagged its Peers (Publication Centre)

We expect June's GDP data, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered momentum in June, having got off to a faltering start in May.

11 Dec 2019 Recession Risks Remain Low, Despite Stagnant GDP in October (Publication Centre)

Markets rightly placed little weight on October's below-consensus GDP report yesterday, and still think that the chances of the MPC cutting Bank Rate within the next six months are below 50%.

11 Dec 2019 The PBoC Could Cut Rates Again this Year, Easing so far is Insufficient (Publication Centre)

China's November money and credit data were a little less grim, with only M2 growth slipping, due to unfavourable base effects.

11 December 2018 Lacklustre October GDP is the Final Straw for February Rate Hike Bets (Publication Centre)

The combination of sluggish GDP growth in October and news that the Prime Minister will attempt to renegotiate the terms of the Brexit backstop, most likely pushing back the key vote in parliament until January, has extinguished any lingering chance that the MPC might be in a position to raise Bank Rate at its February meeting.

11 December 2017 Has Japanese Domestic Demand Reached Escape Velocity? (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q3 real GDP growth was revised up substantially to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the final read, compared with 0.3% in the preliminary report.

11 July 2019 GDP Growth Still isn't Slow Enough to Warrant a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The economy looks to be in better shape following May's GDP report than widely feared.

11 July 2019 Manufacturing in France did Much Better than we had Feared in Q2 (Publication Centre)

France is solidifying its position as one of the Eurozone's best-performing economies.

11 May 2018 Base Effects Push up China's PPI Inflation, but Disin ation will Resume (Publication Centre)

The re-emergence of Chinese PPI inflation in 2016 was instrumental in stabilising equities after the 2015 bubble burst.

11 March 2019 Labor Demand Slowing, but February Payrolls Overstate the Downshift (Publication Centre)

The 20K increase in February payrolls is not remotely indicative of the underlying trend, and we see no reason to expect similar numbers over the next few months.

11 March 2019 Early Evidence Points to Solid EZ Manufacturing Data in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Friday's manufacturing data in the Eurozone were mixed.

11 May 2018 Mexico's Economy on the Mend, but Politics is Now the Biggest Risk (Publication Centre)

This week's data confirmed Mexico's strong economic performance over the first few months of this year.

11 May 2020 Bolsonaro's Surreal Approach to the Pandemic is Putting Brazil in Peril (Publication Centre)

Economic conditions in Brazil are deteriorating rapidly.

11 May 2020 The Labor Market is Worse than April's Headlines Suggest (Publication Centre)

Hideous though the official April payroll numbers were, the chances are that they'll be revised down.

11 May 2020 Still No Signs of a Rebound in the EZ, but that Should Change Soon (Publication Centre)

Last week finished as it started, with more depressing economic numbers in the Eurozone, this time from manufacturing in the core economies.

11 Mar 2020 Time for the Government to Reveal its Virus Response (Publication Centre)

We expect the Budget today to underwhelm investors who are eager to see a quick and powerful government response to the coronavirus outbreak.

11 Mar 2020 If Discretionary Spending Tracks the 9,11 and 2008 Paths, Look Out (Publication Centre)

It's just not possible to forecast the reaction of businesses and consumers to the coronavirus outbreak.

11 June 2019 April Data Point to Flat GDP in Q2, But Q3 Will be Much Better (Publication Centre)

April's GDP data give a grim firs t impression, though the details provide reassurance that the economy isn't on the cusp of a recession.

11 June 2018 China's Trade Surplus Should Start Trending up Again Later this Year (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus has been trending down in the last two years.

11 July. 2016 Lower Inflation in Brazil and Fiscal Tightening Point to Q4 Easing (Publication Centre)

The latest IPCA inflation data in Brazil show the year-over-year rate fell to 8.8% in June from 9.3% in May. This is the slowest pace since May 2015, with inflation pulled lower by declines across all major components, except food. Indeed, food prices were the main driver of the modest 0.4% unadjusted monthto-month increase, rising by 0.7%, following a 0.8% jump in May. The year-over-year rate rose to 12.8% in June from 12.4%.

11 June 2019 What's Happening to Small Firms' Capex and Pricing Plans (Publication Centre)

We already know that the key labor market numbers in today's May NFIB survey are strong.

11 June 2020 Promising Money Data Imply the PBoC can Take a Step Back (Publication Centre)

The People's Bank of China likely will be more than content with the latest money and credit data, to the point where it probably won't see the need to cut interest rates further anytime soon.

11 Mar 2020 Covid-19 has a Strong Grip on Italy, it will be Costly to Beat it (Publication Centre)

It's still unclear how exactly Covid-19 will impact the euro area as a whole, but little doubt now remains that Italy's economy is in for a rough ride.

11 Mar 2020 Chinese PPI Deflation is Back, But Should Disappear by Q4 (Publication Centre)

Collapsing oil prices add fresh deflationary pressure on China.

11 April 2019 Mr. Draghi Kicks the Can on TLTROs and a Tiered Deposit Rate (Publication Centre)

The ECB made no changes to its policy stance yesterday.

11 April 2018 February Data Likely will Show that the Industrial Revival is Losing Pace (Publication Centre)

Industrial production hit its stride last year, notching up eight consecutive month-to-month gains--the longest run of unbroken growth since May 1994--before a setback in December, which was triggered by the temporary closure of the Forties oil pipeline.

10 January 2019 We have Seen this Movie Before in French Consumer Confidence (Publication Centre)

History is repeating itself in France. When the Republican Nicolas Sarkozy defeated the Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal in April 2007, consumer sentiment briefly soared to a six-year high, before plunging to an all-time low a year later.

10 January 2019 Risks to the Consensus for November GDP Lie to the Upside (Publication Centre)

It's hardly surprising that the consensus forecast for month-to-month growth in November GDP, released on Friday, is a mere 0.1%, given the flow of downbeat business surveys.

10 Jan 2020 The Outlook for German Q4 GDP is Poor, but also Murkier than Usual (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report in Germany was much better than implied by the poor new orders data--see here--released earlier this week.

10 July 2018 China's FX Reserves Suggest the June RMB Slide was a Warning Shot (Publication Centre)

China's FX reserves were little changed in June, at $3,112B.

10 July 2018 Should we be Excited About the Rebound in EZ Investor Sentiment (Publication Centre)

It has been mostly doom and gloom for euro area investors in equities and credit this year.

10 June 2019 Industrial Production in the EZ will Slow Significantly in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Friday's data provided the first bit of evidence that manufacturing in the Eurozone is headed for a slowdown in Q2, partly reversing the strength in Q1.

10 July 2020 Net Exports in Germany were Torched in the Second Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's trade data in Germany added to the evidence of a relatively slow rebound as the domestic and European economies emerged from lockdown.

10 Jan 2020 CPI and PPI in China are at Turning Points, but Policy won't Change (Publication Centre)

The year-long surge in CPI inflation in China will soon end.

10 Jan 2020 Carney's Rate Cut Meditation Indicates Normalisation is Distant (Publication Centre)

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate in the first half of this year leapt to 50% yesterday, from 35%, following Mark Carney's speech.

10 Feb 2020 Lack of Chinese Trade Data Invites Speculation... so Here Goes (Publication Centre)

China's January trade data were scheduled for release on Friday, but instead, the customs authority delayed the publication, saying it would publish the numbers with the February data

10 Dec 2019 Net Exports in Germany Were Off to a Flying Start in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The early Q4 hard data in Germany recovered a bit of ground yesterday.

10 Dec 2019 Japan's Revised Q3 GDP Growth Reveals a bit More of the Tax Impact (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP growth was revised up, to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.1% in the preliminary reading.

10 Feb 2020 December GDP Set to Confirm that the Economy Stagnated in Q4 (Publication Centre)

We can't quibble with the consensus that GDP likely rose by 0.2% month-to-month in December, reversing only two-thirds of November's drop.

10 Feb 2020 The Noose Tightens on Eurozone Optimists, Will the ECB Cut Rates? (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production data in the core EZ economies, for December, were startlingly poor. In Germany, industrial production plunged by 3.5% month-to-month, comfortably reversing the revised 1.2% rise in November.

10 Jan 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector and Foreign Trade will Improve Gradually this Year (Publication Centre)

Survey data have been signalling a resilient Brazilian economy in the last few months, despite the broader challenges facing LatAm and the global economy in 2019.

10 February 2017 Dip in German Exports Won't Ruin the Rebound in Q4 as a Whole (Publication Centre)

German exporters stumbled at the end of last year. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus in Germany dipped to €18.4B in December, from €21.8B in November, hit by a 3.3% month-to-month plunge in exports. Imports were flat on the month. The fall in exports looks dramatic, but it followed a 3.9% jump in the previous month, and nominal exports were up 2.5% over Q4 as a whole. Advance GDP data next week likely will show that net trade lifted quarter-on-quarter growth by 0.2 percentage points, partly reversing the 0.3pp drag in Q3. Real imports were held back by a jump in the import price deflator, due to rebounding oil prices.

10 June 2020 A Few Bright Spots in an Overall Grim Detailed Q1 GDP Report (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's third and detailed EZ GDP data confirmed the economy hit the wall in Q1.

10 June 2020 Banxico will Cut Rates this Month, Despite the Inflation Rebound in May (Publication Centre)

This week's data have offered further clear hard evidence of the Covid-19 shock to the Mexican economy, supporting our base case of further interest rate cuts in the coming monetary policy meetings.

10 Sept 2019 China's Trade Story Looks Better, but is Still Weak, in Real Terms (Publication Centre)

China's August foreign trade data were nasty, on the face of it, with exports falling 1.0% year-over- year, after the 3.3% increase in July.

10 October 2017 Industrial Production Likely to Surprise to the Downside Again (Publication Centre)

Industrial production figures look set to surprise the consensus to the downside again today. We think that production was flat on a month-to-month basis in August, falling short of the consensus forecast of 0.2% growth.

10 Oct 2019 Putting our Money Where Our Mouth is Can the EZ Outperform (Publication Centre)

Gloom and uncertainty are spreading across the global economy as we head into the final stretch of the year.

10 Sept 2020 Today's ECB Meeting is too Close to Call, More PEPP on the Way (Publication Centre)

The balance of risks is finely poised ahead of today's ECB meeting.

10 September 2018 EZ Investment will Slow in Q3, but Consumption Should Pick Up (Publication Centre)

Friday was a busy day in the Eurozone economy. The third detailed GDP estimate confirmed that growth was unchanged at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, pushing the year-over-year rate down by 0.4 percentage points to 2.1%, marginally below the first estimate,2.2%.

10 September 2018 No Need for the MPC to Rock the Boat This Week (Publication Centre)

Lacklustre economic data and persistent no deal Brexit risk mean that the MPC won't rock the boat at this week's meeting.

10 September 2018 Japan's Big Wage Increases Point to Robust Q3 Private Consumption (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour cash earnings rose by 1.5% year-over- year in July, a strong result in the Japanese context, if it hadn't been preceded by the 3.6% leap in June.

10 May. 2016 Jump in German Factor Orders do Not Signal the Start of an Upturn (Publication Centre)

New business in German manufacturing ended the first quarter on a strong note. Factory orders rose 1.9% month-to-month in March, above the consensus 0.6%, and net revisions to the February data were +0.4 percentage points. The rise in new orders was exclusively due to a 4.3% increase in export orders, which offset a 1.2% fall in domestic orders. These are strong numbers, but the details suggest that mean reversion will push the headline down next month.

10 May 2019 Is the Risk of a No-Deal Brexit Rising Again? (Publication Centre)

Unsurprisingly, cross-party Brexit talks are not going well.

10 Mar 2020 Virus-related Collapse in Services Spending to Trigger Q2 GDP Drop (Publication Centre)

We're now starting to see clear signs in unofficial data that households are slashing their expenditure on discretionary services, in order to minimise their chances of catching the coronavirus.

10 Mar 2020 It's Getting Sporty, a Brief Look at the Chaos in EZ Financial Markets (Publication Centre)

In this Monitor we'll let the data be, and try to make some sense of the recent market volatility from a Eurozone perspective, with an eye to the implications for the economy and policymakers' actions.

10 Mar 2020 Expect China's Imports to Deteriorate Further this Month (Publication Centre)

China's trade balance flipped to an unadjusted deficit of $7.1B in the first two months of the year, from a $47.2B surplus in December.

10 March 2017 Don't Take the Public Borrowing Forecasts at Face Value (Publication Centre)

Investors in the gilt market would be wise not to take the new official projections for borrowing and debt issuance at face value. The forecast for the Government's gross financing requirement between 2017/18 and 2021/22 was lowered to £625B in the Budget, from £646B in the Autumn Statement.

10 March 2017 Evidence of a Brazilian Business Cycle Recovery this Year is Building (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector had a relatively good start to the year. Data on Wednesday showed that production fell 0.1% month-to-month in January, less than markets expected, and the year-over-year rate rose to 1.4%, after a 0.1% drop in December.

10 May 2018 A Horrible Q1 for Manufacturers in France, but Q2 Will be Better (Publication Centre)

The French manufacturing sector slowed more than we expected in Q1.

10 May 2017 German GDP Growth Likely Accelerated in the First Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in Germany cemented the story of a strong start to the year, despite the disappointing headlines. Industrial production slipped 0.4% month-to-month in March, pushing the year-over-year rate down to +1.9% from a revised +2.0% in February.

15 June 2020 Korea's Unemployment Rate will Surpass the Financial Crisis Peak (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate rose faster than expected in May, jumping to 4.5%, from 3.8% in April. We've been arguing for some time that the delayed impact of the economic growth slowdown from late- 2017 to early-2019 would eventually push the jobless rate to the mid-4% level this year; the sudden stop caused by Covid-19 merely sped up this process.

14 December 2017 Korea's Public Sector Jobs Drive Fizzles out. BoK to Hike Anyway (Publication Centre)

The Korean unemployment rate edged back up to 3.7% in November from October's 3.6%. Young graduates--the usual suspects--accounted for most of the rise.

2 Oct 2020 Chile's Economy is Finally on the Mend, the Outlook is Improving (Publication Centre)

Chile's upbeat economic activity reports for August are consistent with economic recovery in the second half of the year, after an ugly first half.

2 Oct 2019 Stockbuilding Offers Producers Relief from the Global Slowdown (Publication Centre)

Renewed stockpiling ahead of the October Brexit deadline finally appears to be providing some near-term support to manufacturing output.

2 Oct 2019 Manufacturing in Meltdown Fear the Cross-Contamination (Publication Centre)

The dreadful September ISM manufacturing survey reinforces our view that the sector will be in recession for the foreseeable future, and that both business capex and exports are on the verge of a serious downturn.

2 Oct 2020 Decent September Payrolls don't Guarantee a Repeat in October (Publication Centre)

We look for a 950K increase in September private payrolls, more than the 700K or so implied by the Homebase daily employment data but consistent with ADP, assuming it has undershot the official numbers for a sixth straight month.

2 October 2018 How Bad Was the Hit to EZ Auto Production in Q3? (Publication Centre)

The industrial sector in the EZ slowed further at the end of Q3.

2 Sep 2020 Unlock 4.0 in India can only do so Much to Repair the Severe Hit in Q2 (Publication Centre)

India's GDP shrank by 23.9% year-over-year in the second quarter, following growth of 3.1% in Q1.

2 Sep 2020 Soft August CPI Data will Push the ECB to Lift the PEPP This Month (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a busy day in the EZ

2 Sep 2020 Brazil's Q2 GDP Plunges, but Q3 Numbers will Be Strong-Looking (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian economy fell into recession over the first half of the year due to the severity of the Covid shock on domestic demand.

2 Oct 2019 Japanese Dualism Intensified in Q3 Capex Weak, Consumption Strong (Publication Centre)

Japan's Tankan survey continues to paint a picture of a contracting economy.

2 Oct 2019 Hard Data Suggest the Recovery in Brazil and Chile is on Track (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial production rose 0.8% month- to-month in August, well above our call, and the consensus, for a trivial increase.

2 November 2018 Copom on Hold for a While the BRL Allows some Room for Manoeuvre (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank kept the Selic policy rate at 6.50% this week, as markets broadly expected.

2 May 2019 Powell Pushes Back on Low Q1 Inflation Fed Base Case Unchanged (Publication Centre)

The Fed yesterday acknowledged clearly the new economic information of recent months, namely, that first quarter GDP growth was "solid", with Chair Powell noting that it was stronger than most forecasters expected.

2 Mar. 2015 If Real Wages are Key for the Fed, Policy Will Change Very Soon (Publication Centre)

If recent labor market trends continue, the four employment reports which will be released before the June FOMC meeting will show the economy creating about 1.1M jobs, pushing the unemployment rate down to 5.3%, almost at the bottom of the Fed's estimated Nairu range, 5.2-to-5.5%.

2 November 2018 Ignore the October Surge in Korean Exports, but Take Heed of Imports (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade data have been extremely volatile over the past two months, thanks to distortions caused by last year's odd holiday calendar.

2 November 2018 Will the October Stock Market Swoon Hurt the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Last month was sobering month for equity investors in the Eurozone, and indeed in the global economy as a whole.

2 November. 2016 Producer Price Rises Will Bear Down on Domestic Demand (Publication Centre)

October's Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey indicates that producers are not shying away from passing on to their customers the higher costs stemming from sterling's depreciation.

2 November. 2016 No Action From the Fed Today (Publication Centre)

The Fed won't raise rates today, or substantively change the wording of the post-meeting statement. In September, the FOMC said that "The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives."

2 Sept 2019 Japan's Consumption Story is on Thin Ice, even if Front-Loading Helps (Publication Centre)

The Japanese government's plan to smooth out the consumption cliff-edge generated by October's sales tax hike is either going too well, or consumers now are facing fundamental headwinds.

2 Sept. 2015 Slow, but Persistent, Decline in EZ Unemployment Continues (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's surprising decline in the Eurozone unemployment rate adds further evidence to the story of a slowly healing economy. The rate of joblessness fell to 10.9% in July from 11.1% in June, the lowest since the beginning of 2012, mainly driven by a 0.5 percentage point fall in Italy, and improvement in Spain, where unemployment fell 0.2 pp to 22.2%.

20 Jan 2020 Weak December Sales Are Noise, Consumer Fundamentals are Solid (Publication Centre)

Expectations that the MPC will cut Bank Rate at its meeting on January 30 received a further shot in the arm at the end of last week, when December's retail sales figures were released.

20 February 2017 Brazil's Momentum Slowed in Q4, but it Will Rebound, Soon (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively soft footing. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 0.3% month-to-month, though the year-over-year rate rose to -1.8%, from -2.2% in November.

20 Feb 2020 What China's Doing about the Labour Market & Bankruptcy Threat (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's State Council meeting implies that the authorities are starting to take more serious coordinated fiscal measures to counter the virus threat to the labour market and to banks.

20 Jan 2020 China's Economy is Stabilising, Weaker than the Headlines Suggest (Publication Centre)

Officially, China's real GDP growth was unchanged at 6.0% year-over-year in Q4; low by Chinese standards, but not overly worrying. Full-year growth was 6.1% within the 6.0-to-6.1% target down from 6.7% last year, also in keeping with the authorities' long-term poverty reduction goals.

20 Jan 2020 The ECB Won't Flinch Over the Q4 Jump in EZ Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Friday's detailed euro area CPI report for December confirmed that inflation pushed higher at the end of last year. Headline inflation increased to 1.3% year-over- year, from 1.0% in November, lifted primarily by higher energy inflation, rising by 3.4pp, to +0.2%. Inflation in food, alcohol and tobacco also rose, albeit marginally, to 2.1%, from 2.0% in November.

20 June 2019 Japan's Trade Balance has Troughed, Downside Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade balance deteriorated sharply in May, flipping to a ¥967B deficit from the modest ¥57B surplus in April.

20 July. 2016 Job Growth Faded Pre-Referendum, but the Real Hit Lies Ahead (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market data look set to show that the headline, three-month average, unemployment rate held steady at just 5% in May, unchanged from April's reading.

20 Feb 2020 EZ Construction Output Hit a Wall in Q4, but Capex did a Bit Better (Publication Centre)

Production in the EZ construction sector slumped at the end of Q4. Data yesterday showed that output slid by 3.1% month-to-month in December, comfortably reversing the 0.7% increase in November.

20 Feb 2020 Domestically-Generated Inflation Will Rise Further, Ruling Out a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate by June fell to 34%, from 38%, after the release of January's consumer price figures, though investors still see around an 80% chance of a cut by the end of this year.

15 June 2020 Mexico's Industrial Collapse is Bottoming-Out, but Q3 will be Tough (Publication Centre)

Mexico's industrial recession deepened in April, though some leading indicators suggest that the worst is over as the economy gradually reopens. But downside risks have increased dramatically in recent weeks, as the pandemic seems to be gathering renewed strength.

20 Dec 2019 French Business Sentiment Shows no Hit from Strikes in December (Publication Centre)

The INSEE business sentiment data in France continue to tell a story of a robust economy.

20 Aug 2019 Third Quarter Growth Looks OK on the Surface Details Less Good (Publication Centre)

Halfway through the third quarter, we have no objection to the idea that GDP growth likely will exceed 2% for the third straight quarter.

20 Dec 2019 Retailers aren't Really Having a Nightmare Before Christmas (Publication Centre)

The run of weak retail sales figures continued yesterday, with the release of November's official data.

20 December 2017 The IFO Signals a Solid Q4 in Germany, Despite December Dip (Publication Centre)

German survey data did something out of character yesterday; they fell. The IFO business climate index declined to 117.2 in December from a revised 117.6 in November.

20 December 2018 The Dovish Hike wasn't Dovish Enough for the Stock Market (Publication Centre)

The FOMC did the minimum expected of it yesterday, raising rates by 25bp--with a 20bp increase in IOER--and dropping one of its dots for 2019.

20 December 2018 A Rate Cut Would Enhance Efficacy of the PBoC's new Lending Facility (Publication Centre)

The PBoC late on Wednesday announced measures to provide medium-term funding for smaller businesses.

2 Mar. 2015 Eurozone Deflation Pressures Eased Slightly in February (Publication Centre)

Advance inflation data in the Eurozone will likely surprise to the upside today. The consensus forecast expects inflation to rise slightly to -0.5% year-over-year in February from -0.6% in January, but we expect a much bigger jump, to -0.2% year-over-year.

2 Mar 2020 Will the BoE be Swept Along in the Global Rush to Ease? (Publication Centre)

Investors moved rapidly last week to price-in renewed easing by central banks around the world, in response to the rapid growth in coronavirus cases outside China and the resulting sell-off in equity markets.

2 Dec 2019 Further Increase in Japanese Unemployment in Store (Publication Centre)

Japan's jobless rate was unchanged, at 2.4% in October, as the market took a breather after September's job losses.

2 Dec 2019 EZ Core Inflation is Rising, but It Probably Overshot in November (Publication Centre)

The key detail in Friday's barrage of economic data was the above-consensus increase in EZ inflation.

2 Dec 2019 Don't Take Your Eye off the Improving Monetary Indicators (Publication Centre)

With campaigning for the general election intensifying last week, it was unsurprising that October's money and credit release from the Bank of England received virtually no media or market attention.

2 Dec. 2015 Plunging German Unemployment Will Challenge the ECB Next Year (Publication Centre)

The labour market in the Eurozone continues slowly to improve. The unemployment rate fell to 10.7% in October from 10.8% in September, reaching its lowest level since 2013. The divergence in rates, however, between the major economies remains significant. Unemployment in France, Italy and Spain is still above 10%, but the advance German number continued their record-breaking form in November.

2 December. 2016 Friendly Seasonals Set to Push Payrolls Back Above 200K? (Publication Centre)

Our payroll model, which incorporates survey data as well as the error term from our ADP forecast, points to a hefty 225K increase in November employment. We have tweaked the forecast to the upside because of the tendency in recent years for the fourth quarter numbers to be stronger than the prior trend, as our first chart shows.

2 February 2017 March is Alive as the FOMC's Tone Becomes More Direct (Publication Centre)

The FOMC statement did enough to keep alive the idea that rates could rise in March, but the ball is now mostly in Congress' court. If a clear plan for substantial fiscal easing has emerged by the time of the meeting on March 15, policymakers can incorporate its potential impact on growth, unemployment and inflation into their forecasts, then a rate hike will be much more likely.

2 February 2017 Greece is another EZ risk to contend with this year (Publication Centre)

The Greek economy escaped recession in the second half of last year. Real GDP rose a cumulative 1.2% in Q2 and Q3, following a 0.6% fall in Q1. And industrial production and retail sales data suggest that the advance GDP report released later this month will show that the momentum was sustained in Q4. Headline survey data, however, indicate that downside risks to the economy remain.

2 August 2018 The MPC Won't Pull Its Punches When it Raises Rates Today (Publication Centre)

Investors awaiting today's interest rate decision might be a little unnerved to learn that the MPC has a track record of surprises.

2 August 2018 The Door for a Bank of Korea Rate Hike in August Closes Further (Publication Centre)

The past two days have seen a slew of data that should keep the hawks in the Bank of Korea at bay during the Board's meeting at the end of this month.

19 Sept 2019 The U.S. Trade Deal is More About Disaster Mitigation for Japan (Publication Centre)

President Trump wrote to Congress on Monday, saying that the U.S. finally has reached a trade deal with Japan, about a month after he and Prime Minister Abe announced an agreement in principle, on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in France.

19 Oct 2020 The Second Wave Brings Korea's Jobs Data Back Down to Earth (Publication Centre)

Korea's labour market ran out of luck in September, with the unemployment rate rebounding back up to 3.9%, after the surprise one-percentage point drop to 3.2% in August.

19 Oct 2020 Colombia's Upturn Disappointed in August, but Q4 will be Slightly Better (Publication Centre)

Evidence of weakening momentum in the economic recovery in Colombia was seen last week, alongside its regional peers and some DM economies. Low inflation, low interest rates, and the ongoing boost from a decent fiscal stimulus, all have supported the upturn since mid-Q2.

2 Apr 2020 EZ Manufacturing is Under Siege, But Help is Coming, we Hope (Publication Centre)

Within the space of two months, investors have gone from wondering whether the slowdown in manufacturing would spill-over into the rest of the EZ economy, to the realisation that the crunch in services is now driving the overall story on the economy.

2 Apr 2020 How Long Before the Government Lifts the Lockdown? (Publication Centre)

The duration and future scope of the current lockdown is the main uncertainty that U.K economic forecasters have to grapple with at present.

2 April 2019 The Easter Effect is Playing Tricks with Eurozone Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone stumbled at the end of Q3.

2 Apr 2020 Tankan Implies a Severe Tightening of Japan's Financial Conditions (Publication Centre)

The Q1 Tankan survey headlines were close to our expectations, chiming with our call for year-over-year contraction in Japanese GDP of at least 2%, after the 0.7% decline in Q4.

2 Jan 2020 Structural Strengths Suggest Recession Risks Remain Low (Publication Centre)

The 2010s were the first decade since reliable records begin--in the 1700s--in which a recession was completely avoided

2 Jan 2020 The Post-Tariffs Plunge in Imports Continues, but not Forever (Publication Centre)

While were out over the holidays, the single biggest surprise in the data was yet another drop in imports, reported in the advance trade numbers for November.

2 June 2020 Manufacturing is Reviving, but a Full Recovery will Take Several Years (Publication Centre)

We remain convinced by other evidence that manufacturing output now is recovering, though pre-virus levels of production likely will not be realised for several years.

2 June 2020 Chinese Industry is Skating on Thin Ice, Given Sinking Export Orders (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in China continued to trudge along in May, with their post-lockdown recovery looking increasingly fragile.

2 June 2017 The Manufacturing Sector won't put the Economy Back on Track (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector's recovery has sped up since Q1, according to Markit's latest survey, but growth still looks too weak to prevent the overall economy from struggling again in Q2.

2 Mar 2020 Japan's Labour Data in Disarray, Early Signs of Virus Worries? (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour data threw another January curve ball this year--last year it was wages--with a change in the standards for job openings.

2 Mar 2020 Covid-19 Cases Accelerating Outside the Four Major Outbreaks (Publication Centre)

The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing at a faster rate, though 89% of the new cases reported Saturday were in China, South Korea, Italy and Iran.

2 Mar 2020 ECB easing is on the way, the only question is how much (Publication Centre)

We'll cover Friday's barrage of EZ economic data later in this Monitor, but first things first. We regret to inform readers that the ECB is behind the curve. Last week, Ms. Lagarde downplayed the idea that the central bank will respond to the shock from the Covid-19 outbreak.

2 Mar 2020 Cyclical Improvement in Brazil's Unemployment, but Threats Rising (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that the downward trend in Brazil's unemployment continued into this year. The unadjusted unemployment rate fell to 11.2% in January, slightly below the consensus, and down from 12.0% in January last year.

2 July 2020 First V-Shaped Rebound Spotted in the Wild, in German Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

One of the key positive signs in the Eurozone data since the virus hit has been the evidence that households' liquid money balances have been well supported by job retention schemes, extended unemployment insurance, and aggressive monetary stimulus.

2 July 2020 Don't Expect Manufacturing Output to Reach Pre-Covid Levels this Year (Publication Centre)

The recovery in the industrial sector from Covid-19 finally commenced in earnest in June, after May's stalled start.

2 January 2019 The EZ Economy is Flirting With Recession at the Start of 2019 (Publication Centre)

We suspect that euro area investors have one question on their mind as we step into 2019.

2 January 2019 China to Turn up the Stimulus in 2019, but Constraints Remain (Publication Centre)

At the end of last year, China's Central Economic Work Conference set out the lay of the land for 2019. Cutting through the rhetoric, we think the readout implies more expansionary fiscal policy, and a looser stance on monetary policy.

2 Jan 2020 Bad Omens for Q4 Consumers' Spending Growth in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Data on EZ consumption were soft while we were enjoying our Christmas break. The advance EC consumer confidence index slipped to a three-year low of -8.1 in December, from -7.2 in November, breaking its recent tight range.

2 July 2019 Auto Sales are Solid: Fundamentals are Keeping Sales Over 17M (Publication Centre)

We keep hearing that the auto market is struggling, but that idea is not supported by the recent sales numbers.

2 July 2019 More Misery in EZ Manufacturing, but M1 Looks Solid Enough (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in the Eurozone were soft.

2 July 2020 A Few Silver Linings in Japan's Otherwise Grim Q2 Tankan Survey (Publication Centre)

Japan's Tankan survey for Q2 was unsurprisingly grim, given the devastation caused by the near- global lockdown in the first half of the quarter, and the nationwide state of emergency that enveloped April and May.

2 July 2019 Mr. Trump Removes the Gun from Mr. Xi's Head... Now a Deal? (Publication Centre)

We anticipated that the G20 meeting at Osaka over last weekend would be a potentially important mark of thawing relations between China and the U.S., with the hotly awaited meeting between Messrs. Xi and Trump.

20 Mar 2020 The ECB Gets in the Fight with a QE Program Worth More Than €1T (Publication Centre)

We have been on the ECB's case recently. The action taken at last week's official meeting--see here--fell short of market expectations, but more importantly, Ms. Lagarde's communication around the decisions was disastrous.

20 March 2018 Brazil and Chile are Strengthening Expect Further Good News this Year (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recovery is consolidating, with recent data flow confirming that the economy had an encouraging start to the year.

22 June 2018 Asian Data Point to Slowing World Trade Growth this Year (Publication Centre)

Korean trade activity is slowing.

22 June 2017 Are we headed toward an extension of the U.K.'s EU membership? (Publication Centre)

The EU has had a better start to the Brexit negotiations than its counterpart across the Channel. The risk of disagreement within the EU on the details with of the U.K.'s exit is high, but the Continent has presented a united front so far, mainly because Mr. Macron and Mrs. Merkel agree on the broad objectives. They have no interest in punishing the U.K., but they are also keen to show that exiting the EU has costs for a country which leaves.

22 July. 2016 Emerging Divisions on the MPC Signal Only Modest August Easing (Publication Centre)

Soon after last week's vote to keep Bank Rate at 0.50%, the MPC's doves were quick to assert that monetary easing is still imminent. A speech by Andy Haldane, published on July 15, called for "... a package of mutually complementary monetary policy easing measures" that should be "delivered promptly and muscularly". Meanwhile, Gertjan Vlieghe, who was alone in voting for a rate cut in July, wrote in The Financial Times last week that he also favours "a package of additional measures" in August.

22 June 2018 Survey Data Suggest that French Manufacturing will Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of French business sentiment data suggest that confidence in the industrial sector was a little stronger than expected in Q2.

22 June 2020 Retail Sales will be a Poor Bellwether for Households' Overall Spending (Publication Centre)

We advise strongly against concluding from the above-consensus rebound in retail sales in May that the economy is embarking on a healthy, V-shaped recovery, from Covid-19.

22 March 2019 The Phlegmatic MPC Still Envisages a 2019 Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

Unlike other central banks, the MPC has stuck to its message that "an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period" likely will be required to keep inflation close to the 2% target, provided a no-deal Brexit is avoided.

22 March 2018 The IFO and EZ manufacturing sentiment likely fell further in March (Publication Centre)

Today's economic calendar in the Eurozone is filled to the rafters.

22 July 2020 Rising Covid-19 Cases Suggest the Reopening Has Gone too Far (Publication Centre)

Complacency and wishful thinking seem to be creeping back into the government's approach to containing Covid-19.

22 July 2020 Argentina's Economic Recovery is Underway, but it's a Very Slow Start (Publication Centre)

Economic activity is rebounding in LatAm, but the recovery will be slow and uneven.

22 February 2019 The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Japan's Economy from Q4 to Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Japanese activity data were grim.

22 April 2019 So Much for the Q1 Rollover: GDP Appears to have Breached 2% (Publication Centre)

The U.S. consumer is back on track, almost. We have argued in recent months that the sharp slowdown in the rate of growth of consumption is mostly a story about a transition from last year's surge, when spending was boosted by the tax cuts and, later, by falling gas prices, to a sustainable pace roughly in line with real after-tax income growth.

21 September 2018 Housing Activity is Faltering, but the Modestly (Publication Centre)

The New York Fed tweeted yesterday that "Housing market fundamentals appear strong.

22 Jan 2020 Don't Set Store by the BoJ's Optimistic GDP Forecast for 2020 (Publication Centre)

The BoJ kept its main policy settings unchanged yesterday, in another 7-to-2 split.

22 Jan 2020 Resilient Labour Market will Make the Doves Pause for Thought (Publication Centre)

November's labour market report provided timely reassurance, after last week's downside data surprises, that the economy did not grind to a halt at the end of last year.

22 January 2018 China Growth Met Target Before Q4, Environmental Targets hit in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The China Daily ran an article entitled "Beijing, nation get breath of fresh air" on the day Chinese GDP figures were published last week, underlining where the authorities' priorities now lie.

22 January 2018 The Government Shutdown is Theater, but Could Become a Threat (Publication Centre)

As we reach our Sunday afternoon deadline, no deal has been reached to re-open the federal government.

22 May 2018 The Quiet and Good life in Spain (Publication Centre)

The Spanish economy has been living a quiet life recently, amid markets' focus on political risks in Italy and manufacturing slowdowns in Germany and France.

22 May 2019 Not Out of the Woods, but Korea is Signalling a U-Turn in World Trade (Publication Centre)

The latest trade data from Korea underscore the unfortunate timing of the resumption of the U.S.-China tit-for-tat tariff war.

22 Sept 2020 What's a Plausible Path for GDP If Businesses Have to Close Again? (Publication Centre)

Our long-standing forecast for GDP to be about 5% below its pre-Covid level at the end of this year assumes that the government will not need to impose new nationwide restrictions on businesses.

22 Oct. 2015 Will Simply Holding The E.U. Referendum Harm The Economy? (Publication Centre)

Discussion about whether the U.K. would be better off voting to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum is rarely out of the press, raising the question of whether simply holding the national vote could damage the economy even if the U.K. votes for the status quo in the end.

22 Oct 2020 Very Low CPI Inflation Reflects More than Just Indirect Tax Cuts (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation picked up to 0.5% in September, from 0.2% in August, when the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme was running.

22 September 2017 Policy Divergence is Back on as the BoJ Stands Pat (Publication Centre)

The BoJ kept policy unchanged yesterday, with the policy balance rate remaining at -0.1% and the 10-year yield target remaining around zero.

23 April 2018 Japan's Inflation Faces Near-Term Headwinds, but Core Will Trend up (Publication Centre)

Japan's headline CPI inflation is set to edge down in coming months, thanks to non-core prices.

23 August 2017 All Systems Go for Italy's Economy, but Don't ask About the Long Run (Publication Centre)

The performance of Italy's economy in the first half of 2017 proves that the strengthening euro area recovery is a tide lifting all the r egion's boats.

23 April 2018 Inflation Started Q2 Below the BCB's Target, but the Trend will Rise in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil remained subdued at the start of the second quarter, strengthening the odds for an additional interest rate cut next month, and opening the door for further stimulus in June.

22 Oct 2019 Two Idiosyncratic Factors are Adding to the EZ Economy's Woes (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in the EZ economy is well publicised.

22 Oct 2019 China-Sensitive Regions are Suffering as the Trade War Worsens (Publication Centre)

After the strong Philly Fed survey was released last week, we argued that the regional economy likely was outperforming because of its relatively low dependence on exports, making it less vulnerable to the trade war.

22 May 2020 Japan's Abysmal Exports Could Soon Stabilise, Looking at Korea (Publication Centre)

Japan's export data for April unsurprisingly were abysmal, driving a massive deterioration in the trade balance, which flipped from a modest ¥5B surplus in March, to a ¥930B deficit.

22 May 2020 GDP Likely Has Started to Recover, Despite Still-Gloomy Surveys (Publication Centre)

We're placing less weight than usual on conventional business surveys at the moment, as they are ill-suited to charting the economy's turnaround from the Covid-19 slump.

22 May 2019 Will the EZ Consumer Save the Day for the Economy in Q2 (Publication Centre)

We still don't have the complete picture of what happened to EZ consumers' spending in Q1, but the initial details suggest that growth acceleretated slightly at the start of the year.

22 Nov 2019 China's Exit from PPI Deflation Next Year will be Short-Lived (Publication Centre)

The PBoC's quarterly monetary policy report seemed relatively sanguine on the question of PPI deflation, attributing it mainly to base effects--not entirely fairly--and suggesting that inflation will soon return.

22 Nov 2019 Fiscal Stimulus is Coming, Whoever Wins, the MPC will Need to Act (Publication Centre)

The public finances are in better shape than October's figures suggest in isolation. Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks--PSNB ex.--leapt to £11.2B, from £8.9B a year earlier.

22 November 2017 LEIs Point to Stabilising Japanese Domestic Demand Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Japan's all-industry activity index fell 0.5% month-on- month in September after a 0.2% rise in August. Construction activity continued to plummet, with the subindex dropping 2.3%, after a 2.2% fall in August.

22 Nov 2019 Soft Manufacturing in France, but Robust Services and Construction (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of survey data in France suggests that business sentiment in the industrial sector remained soft mid-way through Q4, but the numbers are more uncertain than usual this month.

21 September 2017 Japanese GDP Supported by U.S. in Q3. Domestic Demand Weakening (Publication Centre)

Exports rebounded sharply in Q3 so far, after the Q2 weakness. This will be a useful boost to GDP growth in Q3, as domestic demand likely will soften.

21 Sept 2020 Is the EZ Carry Trade in U.S. Rates Over? (Publication Centre)

Friday's sole economic report revealed that the Eurozone's current account surplus fell slightly at the start of Q3, despite robust trade numbers.

21 Aug 2020 Keep it Simple on the Euro, the ECB is set to Lower its CPI forecast (Publication Centre)

The euro's ascent in the past few months raises two main questions for investors.

21 Apr. 2016 Further Evidence that the Manufacturing Rollover is History? (Publication Centre)

The recent sharp, if not startling, upturn in the regional manufacturing surveys should continue today with the release of the Philadelphia Fed report. The survey is constructed in the same way as the more volatile Empire State, which has rocketed in the past few months, and the headline indexes follow similar trends, as our first chart shows.

21 Apr 2020 Covid-19 is Only Just Starting to Impact Japan's Trade Data (Publication Centre)

Covid-19 has finally showed up in Japan's exports, which plunged 11.7% year-over-year in March, after falling a mere 1.0% in February.

21 Aug 2020 Sterling Likely to Give Back Recent Gains as the Brexit Deadline Looms (Publication Centre)

Sterling has recovered virtually all of the ground it lost against the U.S. dollar in the spring, rising to $1.31 in recent days, from just $1.26 a month ago and a low of $1.15 in March.

21 August 2017 Chile's Economy is Improving, but Expect Only Modest Growth in H2 (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q2 GDP report, released on Friday, confirmed that the economy gathered momentum in recent months, following an alarmingly weak start to the year.

21 December 2016 Big Current Account Deficit Likely to Cloud Resilient GDP Picture (Publication Centre)

The third quarter national accounts, due to be published on Friday, likely will not alter the picture of economic resilience immediately after the referendum. The latest estimate of GDP growth often is revised in this release, but revisions have not exceeded 0.1 percentage points in either direction in the last four years, as our first chart shows.

21 August 2018 Chile's Fundamentals are Improving This Likely Will Offset External Risks (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q2 GDP report, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy gathered strength in the first half of the year, consolidating a strong recovery that started in Q3 2017.

20 Sept 2019 A Pre-Brexit Rate Cut Now is on the Table, But Remains Unlikely (Publication Centre)

It was widely assumed that the MPC simply would regurgitate its key messages from August in the minutes of September's meeting, released yesterday alongside its unanimous no-change policy decision.

20 October 2017 The Spanish Economy is Resilient to the Chaos in Catalonia, for Now (Publication Centre)

The Spanish economy has been punching above its weight in the current business cycle. Real GDP growth has trended at about 0.8% quarter-on-quarter since 2015, far outpacing the other major EZ economies.

20 May 2020 Two Session Signals will be Blurred, QE is Coming but to no Fanfare (Publication Centre)

The annual National People's Congress meeting of China's legislature will get underway at the end of this week, after delay due to the Covid outbreak.

20 May 2019 Banxico Maintains its Cautious Tone as In ation Spikes Temporarily (Publication Centre)

Mexico's recent rebound in inflation and a more volatile financial environment, due to increasing global trade tensions, forced Banxico to keep its policy rate unchanged at 8.25% last Thursday.

20 March 2018 Up or down for the EZ current account surplus in 2018? (Publication Centre)

The euro area's trade advantage with the rest of the world slipped at the start of the year.

20 Nov 2019 EZ Construction has Stalled, but Expect a Rebound in H1 2020 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's headline economic data in the euro area were solid across the board, though the details were mixed.

20 Nov 2019 Indian Inflation Smashes Through the RBI's Target, Setting Up a Pause (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in India jumped to 4.6% in October, from 4.0% in September, marking a 16-month high and blasting through the RBI's target.

20 November 2018 Japan's Trade will Come Back into Balance, but not Until the New Year (Publication Centre)

Looking through recent supply disruptions, Japan's adjusted trade balance seems likely to remain in the red until the new year.

20 Nov 2019 Which Leading Indicator of Core Goods Inflation Should be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators are giving conflicting signals regarding the outlook for core goods CPI inflation.

21 December 2018 What Happened in the French Economy in the Fourth Quarter (Publication Centre)

This is the final report before we dial down for our Christmas break, and we are happy to report that the economic calendar will be almost empty in our absence.

21 Feb 2020 China Credit Numbers are not Bad, but Pre-date Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

Once again, Chinese January data released so far suggest that the Phase One trade deal was the dominant factor dictating activity for the first two- thirds of the month, with the virus becoming a real consideration only in the last third.

21 Nov 2019 The Philly Fed Looks Great, but it's a Huge Outlier and Can't be Trusted (Publication Centre)

If the only manufacturing survey you track is the Philadelphia Fed report, you could be forgiven for thinking that the sector is booming.

21 Nov 2019 Japan's Two-way Trade will Remain in the Doldrums Well Into 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japanese trade remained in the doldrums in October, keeping policymakers on their toes as they repeat the refrain of "resilient" domestic demand.

21 Nov 2019 EZ Equities are Teasing Investors to Disregard Fundamentals (Publication Centre)

The year so far in EZ equities has been just as odd as in the global market as a whole.

21 Nov 2019 Will the End of the Local Authority Borrowing Binge Hit Capex? (Publication Centre)

Borrowing by local authorities from the Public Works Loan Board, used to finance capital projects-- and arguably dubious commercial property acquisitions--has surged this year.

21 Oct 2019 Are Portfolio Flows Turning in Favour of Eurozone Equities (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus recovered a bit of ground mid-way through the third quarter.

21 October. 2016 Government Spending Higher Next Year? (Publication Centre)

It has become pretty clear over the past couple of weeks that Hillary Clinton will be the next president, so it's now worth thinking about how fiscal policy will evolve over the next couple of years.

21 Oct 2019 No Lasting Relief for the Economy, if the New Brexit Deal Eventually Passes (Publication Centre)

The government now has a 50:50 chance of getting the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--through parliament in the coming weeks, despite Letwin's successful amendment and the extension request.

21 May 2020 Zero CPI Inflation Still Likely by the Summer, Following April's Big Fall (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation took a big step in April towards the near-zero rate we anticipate by the summer.

21 May 2020 EZ Core Inflation will Take a Hit, but a Sustained Slide is Unlikely (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final CPI report for April confirmed that the Eurozone is edging towards deflation.

21 July 2020 The Economic Recovery Continues, Despite High Rates of Covid Cases (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus ordeal continues in LatAm as a whole.

21 Jan 2020 The MPC Doesn't Always Deliver What Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

As we write, markets see a 70% chance that the MPC will cut Bank Rate on January 30.

21 Jan 2020 A Tale of Why the ECB is Different from Most Other Central Banks (Publication Centre)

Economists refer to two different types of forward rate guidance by central banks: Delphic and Odyssean. The former describes a "normal" situation, in which the central bank follows a transparent rate-setting rule allowing markets to forecast what it will do, based on the flow of economic data.

21 March 2017 LatAm's Gradual Recovery will Ease Concerns on the Fiscal Front (Publication Centre)

Latin American markets have been relatively resilient this year, despite Fed tightening and high global political risks. The LACI index has risen more than 5% year-to-date, and the MSCI index has been trending higher since late last year.

21 March 2019 EZ Equity Investors Have Bought the Global Central Bank Put (Publication Centre)

The perfect world for equities is one in which earnings and valuations are rising at the same time, but in the Eurozone it seems as if investors have to make do with one or the other.

21 May 2019 The MPC Will Shun its Strategy of Waiting for Brexit Uncertainty to Fade (Publication Centre)

The chances of the first phase of the Brexit saga concluding soon declined sharply last week.

21 March 2019 The Fed is Safe Until the Second Half then all Bets are Off (Publication Centre)

Now that the Fed has abandoned the idea of raising rates this year, despite 3.8% unemployment and accelerating wages, it is very exposed to the risk that the bad things it fears don't happen.

19 November 2018 Keep the Faith in Stronger Sterling by the End of March (Publication Centre)

Sterling took another pounding last week. Resignations from the Cabinet, protests by the DUP, and the public submission of letters by 21 MPs calling for a confidence vote in Mrs. May's leadership, imply that parliament won't ratify the current versions of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration on the future relationship with the E.U. next month.

20 Dec 2019 Next Stop for the BoJ, Increase Flexibility of the Framework (Publication Centre)

The BoJ held firm, for the most part, during this year's bout of central bank dovishness.

16 Oct 2020 China will Stage Only a Narrow Escape from PPI Deflation in Q2 (Publication Centre)

The moderation in PPI deflation in China stalled in December, underscoring the difficulty in returning to the black with slack persisting in the economy.

16 Oct 2020 Brazil's Modest Recovery Continues, Argentina's Inflation Risks Increase (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday from Brazil support our view that the economic recovery continues, but progress is slowing, following the initial post-lockdown rebound.

16 Oct 2019 China's Q3 GDP Likely was Dismal, Recovery Still Pending (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth likely slowed to 6.0% year-over-year in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2.

16 Oct 2020 France's September CPI Adds to the Pressure on EZ Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed French CPI data for September added to evidence of softening core inflation in the Eurozone.

16 October 2017 China's Import Rebound Overstates Domestic Demand Strength (Publication Centre)

The Chinese trade surplus was reasonably stable on our seasonal adjustment in September, falling to $27.5B from $29.7B in August.

16 Sept 2019 Japan's Domestic Demand Holding up Thanks to Services, it Won't Last (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index edged up 0.1% month-on-month in July, after the 0.1% decrease in June.

16 October 2018 China's GDP Growth Likely Weaker than Friday's Numbers will Show (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth is absurdly stable, but the risks in Q3 are tilted to the downside.

16 November. 2016 Strong Growth Outside Germany Saved the Day for the EZ In Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's GDP reports confirmed that growth was stable at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the Eurozone, leaving the year-over-year rate unchanged at 1.5%. Rebounding growth outside Germany, which has been a main driver of EZ GDP growth in this cycle, was the key story.

16 November 2018 When Parliament Votes Down the Withdrawal Deal, What Next? (Publication Centre)

Even if the Prime Minister fends off an emerging leadership challenge--as we write, the rebels still are short of the 48 signatures required to trigger a confidence vote--her chances of getting parliament to back the Withdrawal Agreement in its current form are slim.

16 May 2017 Sterling and Elections: Evidence from the Past Five Decades (Publication Centre)

It's now four weeks since the Prime Minister called a snap general election, and the Conservatives still are riding high in the opinion polls. The average of the last 10 polls suggests that the Tories are on track to take 47% of the vote, well above Labour's 30%.

16 Mar 2020 Damaged Global Demand will Curtail China's Recovery Potential (Publication Centre)

The sharply increased virus spread outside China has lead to a serious downgrade in the global GDP growth outlook.

16 June 2020 Spain's Economy is Taking the Covid-19 Shock on the Chin (Publication Centre)

The Covid-19 crisis has turned the tables on the Spanish economy.

16 May 2018 Chinese Retail Sales Volumes Stabilised in April, Q1 was Weak (Publication Centre)

Chinese April retail sales growth slowed sharply in value terms, to 9.4% year-over-year, from 10.1% in March.

16 May. 2016 Eurozone GDP Growth is Not Accelerating, Despite Strong Q1 (Publication Centre)

The second round of EZ GDP data on Friday confirmed the resilience of cyclical upturn. Real GDP in the euro area rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, up from 0.3% in Q4, and the fastest pace since the first quarter of last year. But the headline was slightly lower than the initial estimate, 0.6%, and consistent with our forecast before Friday's data.

16 November 2017 Japanese Domestic Demand Disappoints, but will Rebound (Publication Centre)

Japanese GDP growth in the third quarter corrected the imbalances of the second. Domestic demand took a breather after unsustainable growth in Q2, while net exports rebounded.

16 May. 2016 Left Out, Right In - Will Temer Save Brazil From Deep-Rooted Crisis? (Publication Centre)

Brazil's Vice-President, Michel Temer, has taken over as interim president, following the approval of the impeachment motion against President Dilma Rousseff, accused of using creative accounting to hide large budget deficits. The impeachment motion suspends Ms. Rousseff for now; she will be removed from office permanently if a two-thirds majority finds her guilty.

16 Sept 2019 The Economy is Set for a Grinding Slowdown, No Relief Until 2021 (Publication Centre)

We have been quite bullish on U.S. economic growth this year.

16 Sept 2020 On the Surface, China's Recovery Regained Momentum in August (Publication Centre)

China's economic recovery resumed in August, following an uneven start to the third quarter in July.

17 Feb 2020 Examining the Virus Hit to China's Economy Using Unorthodox Data (Publication Centre)

Data on air quality in China provide some useful insights into the economic disruptions--or lack thereof--caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus from Wuhan and the government's aggressive containment measures.

17 December 2018 The Grinch Has Taken Charge of Economic Data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy finished last week with a horrendous set of economic data.

17 December 2018 Don't Expect a Strong Policy Signal from the MPC this Week (Publication Centre)

When the MPC last met, on November 2, it attempted to persuade markets that Bank Rate would need to rise three times over the next three years to keep inflation close to the 2% target.

17 Feb 2020 Growth Forecasts in the EZ are about to come down (Publication Centre)

Friday' second Q4 GDP estimate revealed that the EZ economy barely grew at the end of 2019. The report confirmed that GDP rose by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, slowing from a 0.3% rise in Q3, but the headline only narrowly avoided downward revision to zero, at just 0.058%

17 Feb 2020 January CPI Inflation Set to Undershoot the MPC's Forecast (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation surprises look set to trigger larger- than-usual market reactions over the coming months, given that the MPC emphasised last month that it wants to see domestically-generated inflation rebound swiftly, after falling suddenly late last year, in order to justify keeping Bank Rate on hold.

17 Jan 2020 EZ Car Sales Soared in Q4, but the Output Data Still Look Awful (Publication Centre)

A strong finish to the fourth quarter spared the EZ auto sector the embarrassment of posting an outright fall in domestic sales through 2019 as a whole.

17 Feb. 2016 Behind Utility-Hit Headlines, the Industrial Sector is Growing, Jus (Publication Centre)

If the collapse in oil sector capex and the strong dollar were going to push the industrial economy into recession, it probably would have started by now

17 December 2018 China's Activity Data for November were Poor... the Worst is yet to Come (Publication Centre)

We had expected the batch of Chinese data released at the end of last week to disappoint.

17 Dec. 2015 Core Inflation Lags the Economy, and Will Increase Next Year (Publication Centre)

Eurozone inflation continued its slow rebound last month. Final CPI data showed that inflation rose marginally to 0.2% in November from 0.1% in October, a bit higher than the initial estimate of 0.1%. The upward revision was due to marginally higher services inflation at 1.2%, compared to the initial 1.1% estimate. Non-energy goods inflation eased slightly to 0.5% from 0.6% last month. We have received push-back on our call for higher inflation next year, but core inflation is a lagging indicator, and it can rise independently of the story told by GDP or survey data. Core inflation tends to peak during recessions, and only starts falling later as prices are adjusted downwards, with a lag, to the cyclical downturn.

17 Aug 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Edged Up in July, Before Turning Negative in August (Publication Centre)

We expect July's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation ticked up to 0.7% in July, from 0.6% in June.

17 April 2019 Construction Output in the Eurozone Likely Accelerated in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Output in EZ construction rebounded sharply in February, erasing a slip at the start of the year.

16 Sept. 2015 Brazil's Austerity Measures Sound Good, But Probably Won't All Happen (Publication Centre)

Brazil's government announced on Monday spending cuts and new tax increases, aiming to generate a 0.7% of GDP primary surplus, and so restore market confidence and avoid further credit rating downgrades. The plan is to reduce expenditure by BRL26B next year--or 0.4% of GDP--mainly through freezing public sector salaries and slashing social projects. These measures, especially the latter, will likely meet strong resistance in Congress. The salary freeze has more of a chance of passing, but reducing or closing some Ministries is a cost-cutting exercise with an extremely high political price.

17 Aug 2020 Now is Not the Time for the RBI to Worry About Inflation (Publication Centre)

While we were away, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted unanimously to keep its benchmark repo rate unchanged, at 4.00%, defying expectations for a 25-basis point cut.

17 Aug 2020 Headline EZ Data are Still Gloomy, and That's O.K. for Markets (Publication Centre)

Friday's EZ data provide a good base from which to recap the main themes midway through the third quarter. The second estimate of Q2 GDP confirmed the initial headline that output plunged by 12.1% quarter- on-quarter, extending the decline from a 3.6% fall in Q1.

17 Dec. 2014 Sentiment Surges, but Russian Rout Forces a Reminder of 1998 (Publication Centre)

With Russia and some other emerging economies now in full panic mode, the financial market story is sharply divided between two narratives. Either the plunge in global energy prices acts as positive catalyst by boosting real incomes and allowing most central banks to run easier monetary policy or it is a sign that risk assets are about to hit a deflationary wall.

17 Dec 2019 Signs of Stabilisation in Chinese Data, but not yet a Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's activity data outperformed expectations in November.

16 June 2020 How Much Extra QE will the MPC Announce This Week? (Publication Centre)

We agree with the majority of economists that the MPC will announce on Thursday another £100B of asset purchases, primarily of gilts, once it has completed the £200B of purchases it authorised on March 19.

16 June 2020 China's Sturdy Q2 Rebound Spells GDP Upgrade, but at Q3's Expense (Publication Centre)

China's post-lockdown recovery broadly has surprised this quarter, particularly in the industrial sector.

15 Nov 2019 Chinese Growth Momentum Under Attack from all Angles (Publication Centre)

China's main activity data for October disappointed across the board, strengthening our conviction that the PBoC probably isn't quite done with easing this year.

15 May 2020 Japan's H1 GDP will be Horrible, Spread of Damage is Less Certain (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP likely dropped by 1.1% quarter- on-quarter in the first quarter, even from the favourable Q4 base, when it fell by 1.8%.

15 May 2019 Q2 Consumption on Course for 3%, Despite Auto Drag on April Retailing (Publication Centre)

The gap between the official measure of the rate of growth of core retail sales and the Redbook chainstore sales numbers remains bafflingly huge, but we have no specific reason to expect it to narrow substantially with the release of the April report today.

19 Nov 2019 The Size of any Tory Majority Matters for Sterling's Medium-term Path (Publication Centre)

Investors have welcomed the flurry of encouraging opinion polls for the Conservatives that were published over the weekend, with cable rising nearly to $1.30 on Monday, a level last seen on a sustained basis six months ago.

15 November 2017 Chinese October Activity Data Were Mixed but Will Weaken Over Winter (Publication Centre)

The Chinese activity data published yesterday were a mixed bag, with headline retail sales and production weakening, while FAI growth was stable. We compile our own indices for all three, to crosscheck the official versions.

15 Oct 2019 Below-Consensus September CPI Won't Strengthen Case for Stimulus (Publication Centre)

We expect September's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation held steady at 1.7%, below the 1.8% consensus.

15 November 2018 Japan's Q3 GDP Drops Q4 will be Better but Trends are Deteriorating (Publication Centre)

Japanese leading indicators point to a slowdown, and the trend over this volatile year is emerging as firmly downward.

15 May 2019 German Core Inflation Jumped Way Above Trend in April (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's inflation data in Germany were old news to markets, but the details were spectacular all the same.

15 May 2018 Mexico's Manufacturing Ended Q1 Strongly, Will the Trend Continue? (Publication Centre)

Mexican industrial production is slowly improving, and further good numbers are likely in coming months.

15 March 2017 Headline Inflation in Germany will Ease in the Next Few Months (Publication Centre)

The German inflation rate soared at the start of 2017, but it likely will fall in the next few months. Final February data yesterday showed that inflation rose to 2.2% in February, from 1.9% in January, consistent with the initial estimate. Since December, headline inflation in Germany, and in the EZ as a whole, has been lifted by two factors. Base effects from the 2016 crash in oil prices have pushed energy inflation higher, and a supply shock in fresh produce--due to heavy snowfall in southern Europe--has lifted food inflation.

15 June. 2016 Good Start to Q2 for Brazil's Retail Sales, but Details Are Less Upbeat (Publication Centre)

Brazil's retail sales improved at the start of the second quarter, increasing 0.5% month-to-month in April, partially reversing the 0.9% contraction in March. But the details were less upbeat than the headline.

15 June 2020 The Recovery in GDP will Lose Momentum as the Year Drags On (Publication Centre)

The economy will be a shadow of its former self over the remainder of this year, following the heavy pummelling from Covid-19.

15 March 2017 Mexican Manufacturing will do Fine in Q1, Despite Threats (Publication Centre)

The collapse in capital spending in the oil sector and poor construction spending have constrained aggregate Mexican industrial output in recent months, despite the strength of the manufacturing sector. Total production fell 0.1% year-over-year in January, though note this was a clear improvement after the 0.6% drop in December, and better than the average 0.4% contraction over the second half of 2016.

15 March 2018 Old-Guard Industry gets a Q1 Reprieve, but it's Temporary (Publication Centre)

Industrial production bounced back in February. These data point to a reprieve for old-guard dirty industry, after stringent anti-pollution curbs were put in place in Q4.

15 May 2017 The Jump in Q1 German GDP Growth Likely Overstates the Trend (Publication Centre)

The German economy fired on all cylinders at the beginning of the year. Advance data on Friday showed that real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, accelerating from a 0.4% increase in Q4.

15 March 2019 Manufacturing Output Likely Rose in February, but the Outlook is Grim (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing is not in recession, yet, despite the reams of gloomy analysis of the sector, including our own.

15 Oct 2019 Brazil's Modest Recovery Continues, Peru's Central Bank to Cut Soon (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday from Brazil support our view that the economic recovery continues, but progress has been slow.

15 Oct 2019 China's Year-over-Year Trade Figures are Overly Grim (Publication Centre)

China's September imports missed expectations, but commentators and markets tend to focus on the year-over-year numbers.

16 Jan 2020 BoJ Likely to Stamp its Approval on the Budget with a GDP Upgrade (Publication Centre)

The BoJ is likely to be thankful next week for a relatively benign environment in which to conduct its monetary policy meeting.

16 February 2017 Should investors rebalance toward EZ equities? (Publication Centre)

Increasingly, we are hearing equity strategists argue that investors should rebalance their portfolios toward EZ equities. On the surface, this looks like sound advice. Commodity prices have exited their depression, factory gate inflation pressures are rising, and global manufacturing output is picking up. These factors tell a bullish story for margins and earnings at large cap industrial and materials equities in the euro area.

16 Feb. 2016 The ECB Remains on Track to Deliver More Easing in March (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi's introductory statement before yesterday's hearing at the European Parliament repeated that the ECB will "review and possibly reconsider its monetary policy stance in March." But it didn't provide any conclusive smoking gun that further easing is a done deal.

16 Jan 2020 Early Evidence Points to a further Dip in EZ GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Judging by the solid advance data in the major economies, yesterday's EZ industrial production report should have hit desks with a bang, but it was a whimper in the end.

16 July 2018 Mr. Duque Inherits a Colombian Economy Firing on all Cylinders (Publication Centre)

Last week's hard data in Colombia were upbeat, confirming that economic growth accelerated in the first half. Retail sales rose 5.9% year-over-year in May, overshooting consensus.

16 July 2020 The ECB will Hold Fire Today, but More Stimulus is Coming (Publication Centre)

Today's ECB meeting will be a snoozer.

16 July 2020 CPI Inflation Remains Set for a Near- Zero Rate Soon, Despite June's Rise (Publication Centre)

We still expect CPI inflation to decline a little further in the second half of this year, despite its surprise increase to 0.6% in June, from 0.5% in May.

16 December 2016 Core Inflation has Levelled-Off, but Only Temporarily, Headline to Soar (Publication Centre)

A casual glance at our first chart, which shows the headline and core inflation rates, might lead you to think that our fears for next year are overdone. Core inflation rose rapidly from a low of 1.6% in January 2015 to 2.3% in February this year, but since then it has bounced around a range from 2.1% to 2.3%.

16 Dec 2019 Will the Government in France Stand Fast on its Pension Reform? (Publication Centre)

Friday's sole economic report showed that wage growth in France remained robust mid-way through the year. The non-seasonally adjusted private wage index, ex-agriculture and public sector workers, published by the Labour Ministry, rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q3.

15 October 2018 Chinese Trade: Import from Anywhere but the U.S. (Publication Centre)

China's September trade numbers show that, far from reducing the surplus with the U.S., the trade wars so far have pushed it up to a new record.

15 Oct 2020 September's Money Data Give No Reason for the PBoC to Refuel (Publication Centre)

China's money and credit data continued to firm up in September, boding well for the economy's medium- to-long run growth prospects.

15 Oct 2020 EZ Industrial Output in August was Distorted by Seasonals (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production data in the EZ suggest that the rebound in manufacturing slowed sharply midway through Q3.

16 Apr 2020 China Faces an Historic GDP Contraction, March to Disappoint (Publication Centre)

A sizeable drop in China's year-over-year GDP in Q1 is now the consensus view, after 6.0% growth in Q4.

16 April 2018 Core Retail Sales Back on Track After Hurricane-Induced Swings? (Publication Centre)

We are not concerned by the slowdown in retail sales over the past few months.

16 Dec 2019 Has the Tories' Landslide Paved the Way for a Rate Hike Next Year? (Publication Centre)

Markets greatly cheered the Conservatives' landslide victory on Friday, but remained cautious on the potential for the MPC to return to the tightening cycle it started in 2017.

16 Dec 2019 "Phase One" Picked Low-Hanging Fruit... Now for the Hard Part (Publication Centre)

ate last week, China and the U.S. reached an agreement, averting the planned U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese consumer goods that were slated to be imposed on December 15.

17 Jan 2020 Manufacturing is Stagnating, but a Modest H1 Upturn is a Fair Bet (Publication Centre)

The trend in manufacturing output probably is about flat, with no real prospect of any serious improvement in the near term.

15 Nov 2019 More Evidence Emerges of Stabilisation in the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second Q3 GDP estimate confirmed that the EZ economy expanded by 0.2% quarter-on- quarter in Q3, the same pace as in Q2, leaving the year-over-year rate unchanged at 1.2%.

19 August. 2016 The Consumer Bubble Will Pop Around the Year-End (Publication Centre)

It would be a serious mistake to conclude from July's retail sales figures that consumers' spending will be immune to the fallout of the Brexit vote. Households have yet to endure the hiring freeze and pay squeeze indicated by surveys of employers, or the price surge signalled by sterling's sharp depreciation. The real test for consumers' spending lies ahead.

18 Sept. 2015 Global Risks Keep Fed on Hold - December Now in the Frame (Publication Centre)

The Yellen Fed acted--or rather, didn't act--true to form yesterday, preferring to take its chances with inflation one or two years down the line rather than surprising the markets by hiking rates and risking the consequences. Even before Dr. Yellen's tenure, the Fed has long been reluctant to defy market expectations on the day of FOMC meetings. Engineering a shift in market views of the likely broad path of policy is one thing, but shocking investors with unexpected action on specific days is another matter altogether.

18 Sept 2020 QE to Remain the Main Monetary Policy Tool, at Least Until the Spring (Publication Centre)

The MPC surprised yesterday both with its bullish take on the economy's current health, and with the news that it will begin, in Q4, "structured engagement on the operational considerations" regarding negative rates.

19 Dec 2019 Another Poor Quarter Ahead for Construction in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy all but stalled at the start of Q4.

19 Dec 2019 Below-Target Inflation Next Year Won't Warrant Monetary Stimulus (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at 1.5% in November, marking the fourth consecutive below-target print, though it was a tenth above both the MPC's forecast and the consensus.

19 December 2017 The Rise in Oil Prices will Damage Japan's Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade surplus is set to fall in coming months, as domestic demand remains robust, while recent oil price increases will be a drag, lifting imports.

19 Dec 2019 Don't Expect China's LPR to Move Much, if at all, for December (Publication Centre)

The PBoC reduced its 14-day reverse repo by 5bp to 2.65% in a routine operation yesterday.

18 Sept 2019 Mexico's Manufacturing will Slow will Private Spending Step Up (Publication Centre)

The ongoing weakness in DM has been a feature of the global landscape over the last year.

18 Sept 2019 Can Investors Count on the EZ as Global Uncertainty Bites (Publication Centre)

Our colleagues have been telling some unpleasant stories recently.

18 May. 2016 The EZ Trade Surplus is Stalling, but Net Exports will Lift Q2 GDP (Publication Centre)

Eurozone inflation pressures remained subdued in April. Today's final data likely will show that inflation fell to -0.2% year-over-year in April, from 0.0% in March. The main story in this report will be the reversal in services inflation from the March surge, which was due to the early Easter.

18 May 2020 How Quickly will the EZ Economy Rebound from Covid-19? (Publication Centre)

Friday's second Q1 GDP estimate confirmed that lockdowns to halt the spread of Covid-19 hurt the EZ economy in Q1. Real GDP plunged by 3.8% quarter-on- quarter, following a 0.1% rise in Q4, in line with the first estimate.

18 May 2018 Second Quarter Growth Started Strongly, but a Long Way to go (Publication Centre)

The half-way point of the quarter is not, alas, the half-way point of the data flow for the quarter.

18 Nov 2019 A Meaningful Recovery in Chinese Capex Growth is a Distant Prospect (Publication Centre)

China's investment slowdown went from worrying to frightening in October. Last week's fixed asset investment ex-rural numbers showed that year- to-date spending grew by 5.2% year-over-year in October, marking a further slowdown from 5.4% in the year to September.

18 Nov. 2015 Weak Manufacturing Won't Push the EZ Economy into Recession (Publication Centre)

Historical evidence suggests that we should be worried about the relative weakness in the Eurozone's manufacturing sector. Industrial production ex-construction has historically been a key indicator of the business cycle, despite accounting for a comparatively modest 19% of total value-added in the euro area. In all three previous major downturns, underperformance in the manufacturing sector sounded the alarm six-to-nine months in advance that the economy was about to slip into recession.

18 Oct 2019 The New Brexit Deal is a Classic EU Fudge, Will it Sink or Swim (Publication Centre)

Our first impression of the proposed Brexit deal between the EU and the U.K. is that it is sufficiently opaque for both sides to claim that they have stuck to their guns, even if in reality, they have both made concessions.

18 Oct 2019 Food Inflation Woes Intensify in Asia, with No Sign Yet of Respite (Publication Centre)

Rapidly increasing food inflation is creating all sorts of dilemmas for policymakers in Asia's giants.

19 December 2018 The Eurozone's German Engine Room is Slowing Steadily (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO data in Germany heaped more misery on the Eurozone economy.

19 Feb 2020 India's Slowdown is Over, GDP Growth Likely Rebounded in Q4 (Publication Centre)

India's industrial production data last week are the last set of key economic indicators for the fourth quarter, before next week's Q4 GDP report.

19 May 2017 Expect a Hike on June 14 Unless Financial Conditions Tighten, a Lot (Publication Centre)

The probability of a rate hike on June 14, as implied by the fed funds future, has dropped to 90%, from a peak of 99% on May 5.

19 March 2019 The Real Story About Recent Volatility in EZ Net Exports (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report showed that the EZ trade surplus rebounded slightly at the start of the year, rising to €17.0B in January, from a revised €16.0B in February, lifted by a 0.8% increase in exports, which offset a 0.3% rise in imports.

19 March 2019 The MPC Won't Shift to a Dovish Stance this Week (Publication Centre)

We doubt that this week will see the MPC joining the list of other major central banks that have abandoned plans to raise interest rates this year.

19 May 2020 A Eurozone Investor's Shopping List in a Time of Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

The uncertainty over the strength and speed of the economic rebound is still a concern for investors in terms of putting money to work.

19 May 2020 Inflation Likely Slumped Below 1% in April, on Course for Zero by Q3 (Publication Centre)

April's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, likely will show that CPI inflation plunged and is heading quickly to a near-zero rate by the summer.

17 Jan 2020 Phase One Deal Puts a Grey Cloud Over End-2020, Silver Lining now (Publication Centre)

To avoid rocking the 2020 boat, the Phase One trade deal needed to be sufficiently vague, so that neither side, and particularly Mr. Trump, would have much cause to kick up a fuss around missed targets.

19 Nov 2019 Italian GDP Growth is Rebounding, but at a Painfully Slow Pace (Publication Centre)

Italy's economy is still bumping along the bottom, after emerging from recession in the middle of last year.

19 Mar 2020 What Else Can the Chancellor do to Reinforce the Eventual Recovery? (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak announced further emergency support measures for the economy on Tuesday and pledged to do more soon.

19 June 2020 India's Q2 Started Off on a Terrible Note, More RBI Cuts Coming (Publication Centre)

The first real glimpse of India's economic performance early this quarter is grim, adding weight to our below-consensus GDP forecast.

19 July 2018 China's Domestic Activity Likely Recovered in Q2 (Publication Centre)

China's official GDP data, published on Monday, showed year-over-year growth edging down to 6.7% in Q2, from 6.8% in Q1.

19 July 2017 Credit Conditions in the Eurozone Continue to Support the Recovery (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB bank lending survey suggests that credit conditions remain favourable for the EZ economy. Credit standards eased slightly for business and mortgage lending and were unchanged for consumer credit.

19 Feb 2020 The Labour Market is Tight Enough to Sustain Brisk Wage Rises (Publication Centre)

The headline employment numbers masked an otherwise sub-par December labour market report.

19 July 2018 Housing Investment Likely Dipped in Q2 it's the Only Point of Weakness (Publication Centre)

We can't finalize our forecast for residential investment in the second quarter until we see the June home sales reports, due next week, but in the wake of yesterday's housing starts numbers we can be pretty sure that our estimate will be a bit below zero.

19 July 2019 Spanish GDP Growth is Still Lifting the EZ Average, Substantially (Publication Centre)

The Spanish economy remains the star performer among the majors in the Eurozone.

19 June 2020 Brazil's BCB is Determined to do Everything Possible to Boost Growth (Publication Centre)

Policymakers in Brazil and Chile took another big step this week in assuring markets that they won't hesitate to act in the fight against the virus.

19 June 2019 Market-based Recession Indicators Are Not Flashing Red (Publication Centre)

We doubt there will ever be a fail-safe leading indicator of when a recession is about to hit, but asset prices can help us to assess the risks, at least.

18 March 2019 Mexico's Manufacturing is Offsetting the Oil Drag, Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Hard data on Mexico's industrial sector for the last couple of months have highlighted major divergences across sectors.

19 July 2019 Talk of Downside Inflation Risk will be Muted by September (Publication Centre)

The spike in the May core CPI, and its likely echo in the core PCE, won't stop the Fed easing at the end of this month.

17 January 2018 Japan's Goods Price Inflation Slows, but Services In ation to Pick up (Publication Centre)

Japan's PPI inflation likely has peaked, with commodities still in the driving seat. Manufactured goods price inflation will soon start to slow, following the downshift in China's numbers.

17 May 2019 The China-led Industrial Downturn is Ending, Trade War Permitting (Publication Centre)

Evidence in support of our view that the U.S. industrial slowdown is ending continues to mount, though nothing is yet definitive and the re-escalation of the trade war is a threat of uncertain magnitude to the incipient upturn.

17 March 2017 February's Manufacturing Data Flattered by Warm Weather? (Publication Centre)

The latest survey evidence strongly supports our view that momentum is building in the industrial economy, but the official production data continue to lag. Yesterday's March Philly Fed survey was remarkably strong, with the correction in the headline sentiment index -- inevitable, after February's 33-year high -- masking increases in all the subindexes.

17 Oct 2019 Korea's Q3 GDP Report to Highlight the Futility of the BoK's Second Cut (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea voted yesterday to lower its policy base rate to 1.25%, from 1.50%.

17 Oct 2019 The Upward Trend in Domestically- Generated Inflation Is Clear (Publication Centre)

The case for the MPC to hold back from implementing more stimulus was bolstered by September's consumer prices figures.

17 September 2018 Brazilian Consumers' Spending is Slowing, but it Won't Collapse (Publication Centre)

Evidence of slowing growth in Brazil consumers' spending continues to mount.

17 Sept 2020 Back to Normal for EZ External Trade or a New Story (Publication Centre)

The EZ trade surplus in goods all but evaporated during lockdown.

17 Mar 2020 Bolder Policy Action Required to Prevent a Prolonged Recession (Publication Centre)

Signs that the economy has been crippled by people's response to the Covid-19 outbreak continued to emerge yesterday.

17 June 2020 Further Proof of Severe Contraction in Q2, but Signs of Revival from June (Publication Centre)

Incoming data continue to highlight the severe hit from the pandemic on the real economies of the region, but some surveys and leading indicators are already pointing to a gradual upturn from June onwards.

17 July 2018 Is the Prime Minister "A Dead Woman Walking"? (Publication Centre)

Former Chancellor George Osborne famously quipped after last year's general election that Theresa May was "a dead woman walking and the only question is how long she remains on death row".

17 July 2017 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Subdued, Oil is Mainly to Blame (Publication Centre)

Upbeat survey data and relatively resilient consumer spending numbers indicate that the Mexican economy is in good shape, despite a marginal slowdown in most of Q2.

18 Mar 2020 Further Downgrades of our Japan GDP Forecasts (Publication Centre)

China's data on Monday were beyond dire, leading to a dramatic downward revision of our already grim Q1 GDP forecasts for the country.

17 July 2019 Net Trade will Decide the Fortunes of the EZ Economy Through 2021 (Publication Centre)

The outlook for growth in the EZ economy is currently both stable and relatively uncomplicated, at least based on the most widely-watched leading indicators.

17 July 2020 The ECB Takes Stock of a Strong and Sustained Stimulus Program (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB meeting was a snoozer, just as we predicted.

17 June 2019 The MPC Won't Strike the Dovish Tone Markets Want to Hear (Publication Centre)

The MPC will have to issue fresh, dovish guidance in order to satisfy markets on Thursday, which now think the Committee is more likely to cut than raise Bank Rate within the next six months.

17 June 2019 Peak Trade War Might Already be Past, but Strong Nerves Needed (Publication Centre)

When economic historians look back at the bizarre trade war of 2018-to-19, we think they will see Tuesday June 4 as the turning point, after which the threats of fire and brimstone were taken much less seriously, and markets began to ponder life after tariffs.

18 April 2018 Colombia's Softer Activity Data is Temporary, Expect an Acceleration (Publication Centre)

The February activity report in Colombia showed a modest pick-up in manufacturing activity and strength in the retail sales numbers.

18 April 2017 The Weather is Playing Tricks with EZ Industrial Production Data (Publication Centre)

As warned--see our Monitor April 7--economic data in the Eurozone disappointed while we were away. Industrial production, ex-construction, in the euro area slipped 0.3% month-to-month in February, and the January month-to-month gain was revised down by 0.6 percentage point to +0.3%.

18 January 2019 Good Economic Data for Bolsonaro and Macri at Least for Now (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirmed that economic activity is improving in Brazil.

18 Feb 2020 Q4 was an Abrupt End to Japan's early 2019 Mirage (Publication Centre)

We've continuously warned that Japan's national accounts weren't sitting easily with the underlying signals from survey data, and monetary conditions, through last year.

18 April 2019 The March Dip in the Core EZ CPI is Old News It will Jump in April (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final EZ CPI data for March confirmed the message from the advance report that inflation pressures eased last month.

18 July 2017 Colombia's Economic Prospects Remain Poor, but they will Improve (Publication Centre)

May's activity data underline the weakness of Colombia's economic growth. Domestic demand still is under pressure due to the lagged effect of the deterioration in the terms of trade and other temporary shocks in 2016, and the VAT increase in January this year.

19 Nov 2019 PBoC Hasn't Turned More Dovish, the Latest Cut was Housekeeping (Publication Centre)

The People's Bank of China cut its seven-day reverse-repo rate yesterday, to 2.50% from 2.55%.

18 June 2020 Deflation will be Just a Whisker Away in the Summer (Publication Centre)

The drop in CPI inflation to 0.5% in May, from 0.8% in April, brought it another big step closer to the near-zero rate we foresee in the second half of this year.

18 June 2019 Mr. Kuroda says Capex is Key for Japan's Economy How is it Doing (Publication Centre)

Japanese policymakers have a wary eye on the weakness in industrial production and exports.

18 June 2019 Colombia's Economy Remains Resilient but External Risks are Drag (Publication Centre)

Colombia has been one of LatAm's outperformers this year.

18 Feb 2020 December Data to Sustain Picture of Solid Job Gains But Slowing Wages (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market report looks set to be a mixed bag, with growth in employment remaining strong, but further signs that momentum in average weekly wages has faded.

18 Feb 2020 Is the ECB About to Include House Prices in its Inflation Analysis? (Publication Centre)

The idea that the ECB will use its forthcoming strategic policy review to include a measure of real estate prices in its inflation target has been consistently brought up by readers in recent meetings.

18 Feb 2020 Brazil's Momentum Slowed in Late Q4, but it Will Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively weak footing. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 0.3% month- to-month, pushing down the adjusted year-over- year rate to 0.3%, from a downwardly-revised 0.7% increase in November.

18 Aug 2020 The Devil is in the Detail in the Eurozone Construction Data (Publication Centre)

This week's EZ construction report--data released on Wednesday at 11.00 CET--will close the book on the second quarter in the euro area economy, providing further evidence that private sector activity rebounded as lockdowns were lifted.

18 Dec 2019 Labour Market Data Remain Strong Enough to Keep Rate Cuts at Bay (Publication Centre)

The labour market remains healthy enough to persuade the MPC to keep its powder dry over the coming months.

18 August 2017 Japan's Trade Surplus Bounced. Exports to U.S. Strengthen (Publication Centre)

Japan's July adjusted trade surplus rebounded to ¥337.4B from ¥87.3B in June, far above consensus. On our seasonal adjustment, the rebound is slightly smaller but only because we saw less of a drop in June.

18 Dec 2019 Modest Growth Ahead in 2020 for Domestic Eurozone Car Sales (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday added further evidence of a slow recovery in Eurozone auto sales.

18 Dec. 2015 Spanish Elections this Weekend Unlikely to Move Markets (Publication Centre)

Spain heads to the polls on Sunday, but unlike the chaos that descended on Europe following Greece's elections earlier this year, we expect a market-friendly outcome. The key political story likely will be the end of the two-party system, as polls indicate neither of the two largest mainstream parties--Partido Popular and PSOE--will be able to form a majority. Markets' fears have been that the fall of the established parties would allow anti-austerity party, Podemos, to lead a confrontation with the EU, but this looks very unlikely.

18 Dec 2019 The BoJ will be Happy to Focus on the Positives this Thursday (Publication Centre)

The BoJ is likely to stay on hold this week for all its main policy settings.

11 January 2019 MPs Will Steer the PM to a Softer Brexit After Next Week's Defeat (Publication Centre)

The government remains on course to lose next Tuesday's Commons vote on the Withdrawal Agreement--WA--by a huge margin.

15 Sept 2020 A Tough Start for Japan's New PM, with the Recovery Already Stalling (Publication Centre)

Japan's prime minister in-all-but-name, Yoshihide Suga, will be inheriting an economy struggling to maintain any momentum from the release of pent-up demand.

1 April 2019 The PM Will Pick a Softer Brexit over No-deal (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister is in a position on Brexit all chess players dread: zugzwang.

1 June 2018 China's PMIs Signal Another Rise in PPI In ation in May (Publication Centre)

The return of Chinese PPI inflation in 2016 helped to stabilise equities after the boom-bust of the previous year.

1 March 2018 The PM's Inevitable Capitulation is Still a Way Off ,Clouding Sterling's Outlook (Publication Centre)

Sterling fell to $1.38, from $1.39, in the hour following the EU's publication of a draft Article 50 withdrawal treaty, which set out the practical consequences of the principles the U.K. agreed to in December.

20 November 2018 The PM is Likely to Hang on, Even if a Confidence Vote is Triggered (Publication Centre)

As we write, 25 Conservative MPs have confirmed publicly that they have submitted no-confidence letters to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee. That's 23 short of the 48 required to trigger a leadership contest, though some MPs might have submitted letters without making it public.

25 March 2019 For an Inflation Proponent, PM Abe Sure is Making it Hard to Achieve (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation was unchanged, at 0.2% in February.

6 February 2019 Q1 GDP Growth will be Lacklustre, but not as Bad as the PMIs Imply (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's news that the business activity index of the Markit/CIPS services survey fell again in January, to just 50.1--its lowest level since July 2016--has created a downbeat backdrop to the MPC meeting; the minutes and Q1 Inflation Report will be published on Thursday.

23 May 2019 Patience to Persist FOMC Members Content to Wait for Developments (Publication Centre)

It's hard to read the minutes of the April 30/May 1 FOMC meeting as anything other than a statement of the Fed's intent to do nothing for some time yet.

24 June 2019 The New PM Soon will be Asking for a Further Brexit Extension (Publication Centre)

British politics remains a complete mess, with many outcomes, ranging from no-deal Brexit to revoking Article 50, possible in the second half of this year.

22 Jan 2020 Global Monitor Will the BOE cut rates later this month? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The trend in core inflation is stable, despite soft December data • EUROZONE - The Q4 jump in core inflation won't shift the ECB's dovish outlook • U.K. - All eyes on the PMI this week; it could determine the January BOE decision • ASIA - China's economy is weaker than the headlines suggest • LATAM - Black Friday boosted retail sales in Brazil, but less than expected

22 January 2019 Commodity Prices are Edging Higher, Improving LatAm's Outlook (Publication Centre)

Recent global developments lead us to intensify our focus on trade in LatAm.

22 Feb. 2016 Survey Data Will Weaken in Q1, But Won't Signal a Major Downturn (Publication Centre)

Economic survey data this week will give the first clear evidence on whether recent market volatility has dented Eurozone confidence. The key business and consumer surveys dipped in January, and we now expect further declines, starting with today's PMI data. We think the composite index fell slightly to 53.0 in February from 53.6 in January.

22 January 2018 External Factors for LatAm are Positive, but Vary Across Countries (Publication Centre)

Recent global developments lead us to intensify our focus on trade in LatAm.

20 Mar 2020 The Fed is Now Intervening Across the Board, Almost, Good (Publication Centre)

The Fed's announcement, at 11.30pm Wednesday, that it will establish a Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility--MMLF--to support prime money market funds, is another step to limit the emerging credit crunch triggered by the virus.

20 January 2017 Are Layoffs Really Falling Again, Signalling Stronger Payroll Gains? (Publication Centre)

After three straight lower-than-expected jobless claims numbers, we have to consider, at least, the idea that maybe the trend is falling again. This would be a remarkable development, given that claims already are at their lowest level ever, when adjusted for population growth, and at their lowest absolute level since the early 1970s.

22 Mar. 2016 Will Economic Survey Data Step Back From the Brink this Week? (Publication Centre)

Financial markets and economic survey data have been sending a downbeat message on the Eurozone economy so far this year. The composite PMI has declined to a 12-month low, consumer sentiment has weakened, and national business surveys have also been poor.

21 Sept. 2015 Fed Delays Interest Rate Liftoff - LatAm Breathes a Sigh Of Relief (Publication Centre)

The Fed deferred, but did not cancel, the start of its rate normalization last week. As a consequence, December is now the most likely meeting for the first hike. The Fed's core view of the U.S. economy remains the same, but policymakers want a bit more time to see how global developments affect the U.S. Our Chief Economist, Ian Shepherdson, expects the strength of the employment data, better Chinese numbers and calm financial markets to prevent any further postponement beyond Q4.

22 August 2017 Is the Worst Over for State and Local Government Spending? (Publication Centre)

Consumption and investment spending by state and local government accounts for just over 10% of the U.S. economy, making it more important than exports or consumers' spending on durable goods, and roughly equal to all business investment in equipment and intellectual property.

23 July 2019 Shock News Politicians Choose not to Cut Spending in Election Year (Publication Centre)

As we reach our deadline--4pm eastern time--media reports indicate that a debt ceiling agreement is close.

24 July 2018 Have the Latest Tariff Threats Hurt the Trade-Sensitive Richmond Fed (Publication Centre)

Of all the regional Fed and PMI business surveys, the Richmond Fed index appears to be the most sensitive to U.S. trade policy.

25 Jan. 2016 Oil Capex Crash Nearly Over - What Happens Next to Consumers? (Publication Centre)

If we had known back in June 2014 that oil prices would drop to about $30, the collapse in capital spending in the oil sector would not have been a surprise. Spending on well-drilling, which accounts for about three quarters of oil capex, has dropped in line with the fall in prices, after a short lag, as our first chart shows. We think spending on equipment has tracked the fall in oil prices, too.

25 June. 2015 Germany Needs Stronger Private Investment to Drive the Recovery (Publication Centre)

The chaos in Greece was identified as the main culprit for yesterday's soft IFO report. The headline business climate index fell to 107.4 in July, down from 108.1 in May, driven by declines in respondents' views on the current economy and their expectations for the future. We expected a dip in the he adline IFO, but we were surprised by the fall in the manufacturing sub-index, given the firmer PMI earlier this week.

25 Mar 2020 Global Monitor A glimmer of hope in the European Covid-19 data (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The Fed is on the ball, but Congress is behind the curve • EUROZONE - The recession has arrived; how long will it last? • U.K. - The PMIs are dreadful, but they still likely understate the incoming slowdown • ASIA - Chinese banks are screaming for a rate cut • LATAM - LatAm policymakers are doing what they can to fight the virus

24 Apr 2020 The Perfect Storm for Mexican Retailers and Consumers is Looming (Publication Centre)

The sharp decline in Mexico's leading indicators highlights the dramatic scale of the economic and financial hit from the coronavirus. High frequency data and the PMIs are the first numbers to capture the lockdown, and they signal that the services activity-- the bulk of Mexico's GDP--dropped sharply.

23 November 2018 Risk Diverges in the Biggest LatAm Economies, Will it Stabilize Soon? (Publication Centre)

Idiosyncratic developments have driven market volatility in LatAm in recent weeks.

23 Apr 2020 EZ Consumption is Collapsing, but Fundamentals offer Hope (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data provided the first glimpse of the crash in EZ sentiment at the start of Q2, ahead of today's more substantial barrage of numbers, including French INSEE data, GfK confidence numbers in Germany and the advance PMIs.

2 June 2020 Auto Sales are Rebounding Quickly, No Nike Swoosh Here (Publication Centre)

The May auto sales numbers probably will be released just after our deadline at 4pm eastern time today, but all the signs are that a hefty rebound will be reported after April's plunge to just 8.6M, not much more than half the pre-Covid level.

23 November 2018 Lower Oil Prices are Another Tailwind for 2019 (Publication Centre)

The recent plunge in oil prices is another positive development, alongside looser fiscal policy and the striking of a Brexit deal with the E.U., pointing to scope for GDP growth to pick up next year.

22 November. 2016 Trade Data are Improving in the Andes... Better Still in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Colombia's trade deficit continued to narrow in Q3; a postive development now that EM are back in the firing line. Assuming no revisions, the marginal year-over-year dip in the September trade deficit means that the third quarter deficit was USD3.1B, down from US4.6B a year ago.

18 May. 2016 Did the FOMC Discuss Brexit Risk at the April Meeting? (Publication Centre)

The April FOMC statement dropped the March assertion that "global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks" to the U.S. economy, even though growth "appears to have slowed". Instead policymakers pointed out that "labor conditions have improved further", perhaps suggesting they don't take the weak-looking March data at face value. We certainly don't.

11 Nov. 2015 Strong Finish to Q3 for French Manufacturing to Boost GDP? (Publication Centre)

French industrial production data surprised to the upside yesterday. Output rose 0.1% month-to-month in September, a solid gain following an upwardly-revised 1.7% rise in August, and also higher than the consensus, forecast for a 0.4% fall. The details, however, were less upbeat than the headline. Transport equipment fell, as expected, following production being pushed forward ahead of the Summer holidays. But this story was overshadowed by a 22.5% month-to-month jump in oil refining-- included in manufacturing--as refineries resumed full production following maintenance over the summer.

11 October. 2016 Unemployment has Stopped Falling, For Now (Publication Centre)

The single most startling development in the labor market data in recent months is acceleration in labor force growth. The participation rate has risen only marginally, because employment has continued to climb too, but the absolute size of the labor force is now expanding at its fastest pace in nine years, up 1.9% in the year to September.

12 May. 2015 A Recipe for Growth in the Eurozone - Revival of SMEs (Publication Centre)

The four-quarter average growth trend in private investment, excluding dwellings, fell to 0.1% in Q4, and the recent improvement in the PMIs indicates only a modest upturn in Q2. The dearth of investment by non-financial corporates remains one of the biggest threats to long-term growth in the Eurozone.

11 May. 2016 Outside the Oil Sector, the NFIB Survey Points to Decent Capex (Publication Centre)

We're pretty sure our forecast of a levelling-off in capital spending in the oil sector will prove correct. Unless you think the U.S. oil business is going to disappear, capex has fallen so far already that it must now be approaching the incompressible minimum required for replacement parts and equipment needed to keep production going.

10 Oct 2019 Lower Tariffs won't Stop CPI Inflation Surging in the Event of No-deal (Publication Centre)

We remain confident in the success of legislation designed to compel the PM to request a further extension of the U.K.'s E.U. membership on October 19, in the overwhelmingly likely scenario that an exit deal is not agreed at next week's E.U. Council meeting.

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists React to the January Fed Statement: 'The Door is Still Open to a June Hike' (Media Centre)

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it would keep short-term interest rates near zero until at least the middle of the year. The central bank's policy committee also signaled caution about low inflation and nodded to overseas uncertainty by including new language that it would monitor international developments. Here's how economists reacted

1 December 2017 The ISM Manufacturing Index is set to Drop, but the Trend Remains Firm (Publication Centre)

All the regional PMI and Fed business surveys we follow suggest that today's national ISM manufacturing report for November will be weaker than in October

10 June. 2015 Tightening Labor market pushing up small firms' pricing plans? (Publication Centre)

The May NFIB survey and the April JOLTS report, both released yesterday, paint a coherent, if not yet definitive, picture of labor market developments which should alarm the Fed. The data suggest that the true labor supply, in the eyes of potential employers, is much smaller than implied by the BLS's measures of broad unemployment.

12 Oct. 2015 French Manufacturing Output Likely Fell in Q3 - Q4 will b e Better (Publication Centre)

French industrial production data offered a bit of relief last week following a string of woeful German data, and news of monthly falls in Italian and Spanish manufacturing output. Industrial production jumped 1.6% month-to-month in August, but the headline was flattered by a 0.3% downward revision of the July data. The monthly jump pushed the year-over-year rate higher to 1.6%, from a revised 0.9% fall in July. All sectors performed strongly in August, but the key story was a hefty increase in transport equipment manufacturing, due to a 11.9% surge in vehicle production.

14 December 2018 Remainer Tory Rebels now have Greater Leverage (Publication Centre)

After the drama of the last few days, Brexit developments now are set to proceed at a slower pace.

17 March 2017 Embattled Pro-EU Parties Secure Decisive Victory in the Netherlands (Publication Centre)

Centrist politicians and markets breathed a sigh of relief yesterday as the results of the Dutch parliamentary elections rolled in. The incumbent conservatives, led by PM Mark Rutte, lost ground but emerged as parliament's biggest party with 33 seats out of the total 150.

18 December 2019 Global Monitor The Fed is signalling inaction (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The trade deal will lift business confidence, but only modestly • EUROZONE - A soft Q4 for the PMIs, but we think the bottom is in • U.K. - GDP growth will recover in Q1, before Brexit risks return • ASIA - Now the hard part begins in the U.S.-China trade talks • LATAM - Will President Fernández Solve the Debt Crisis in Argentina?

18 Nov. 2015 Hawks Want to Hike, but What do They Expect From Higher Rates? (Publication Centre)

At the October FOMC meeting, policymakers softened their view on the threat posed by the summer's market turmoil and the slowdown in China, dropping September's stark warning that "Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term." Instead, the October statement merely said that the committee is "monitoring global economic and financial developments."

25 September 2019 Global Monitor U.S. core inflation will rise (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - We still think core inflation is headed higher next year • EUROZONE - Don't panic over grim September PMIs • U.K. - A pre-Brexit rate cut is still a long way from certain • ASIA - The BOJ is primed for action next month • LATAM - Brazil cuts rates, and more will follow later this year

17 January 2017 Will Policymakers Act to Stop Sterling Falling Further? (Publication Centre)

Sterling weakened further yesterday as anxiety grew that PM Theresa May will indicate she is seeking a "clean and hard Brexit" in a speech today. This could mean the U.K. leaves the EU's single market and customs union, in order to control immigration, shake off the jurisdiction of the European Court and have a free hand in trade negotiations with other countries.

15 Apr. 2015 Plunging utility output and oil well-drilling to depress March IP (Publication Centre)

The combination of weather effects and the meltdown in the oil sector make it very hard to spot the underlying trend in manufacturing activity. The sudden collapse in oil-related capital spending likely is holding down production of equipment, but the data don't provide sufficient detail to identify the hit with any precision.

15 August 2018 Supply Constraints Still aren't Biting, Despite Low Unemployment (Publication Centre)

The stand-out development in yesterday's labour market report was the drop in the he adline, three-month average, unemployment rate to just 4.0% in June--its lowest rate since February 1975--from 4.2% in May.

16 Mar 2020 Markets Likely will Stabilise Soon,but The Economic Pain is Yet to Come (Publication Centre)

The latest developments on the coronavirus outbreak are not encouraging; for LatAm markets and economies.

19 Nov. 2015 Fed Set for December Hike, but Expect Two Dissents (Publication Centre)

At the October FOMC meeting, policymakers softened their view on the threat posed by the summer's market turmoil and the slowdown in China, dropping September's stark warning that "Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term." Instead, the October statement merely said that the committee is "monitoring global economic and financial developments."

8 Jan 2020 Global Monitor A more positive start to the year in LatAm? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Markets now await Iran's inevitable response • EUROZONE - Still soft, but also stabilising, EZ PMIs • U.K. - Strong balance sheets means that recessions risks are remote • ASIA - Useful Chinese Hukou reforms, but looser financial conditions are still needed • LATAM - The outlook is improving in LatAm as trade tensions ease

9 September. 2016 Political Turbulence in Mexico Won't Derail Fiscal Consolidation (Publication Centre)

Political developments are clouding the horizon in Mexico, at least temporarily. Mexico's Finance Minister Luis Videgaray, the mastermind behind President Enrique Peña Nieto's most important economic reforms, resigned on Wednesday. José Antonio Meade, a former finance chief, has been tapped to replace him.

9th September 2020 Global Monitor The recovery in the U.S. labour market is losing steam (Publication Centre)

• U.S.- The recovery in payrolls is petering out • EUROZONE - Soft August PMIs put the EZ recovery on notice • U.K.- GDP growth is set to slow sharply as support measures are pulled • ASIA - Reopening in India won't save the economy in the near term • LATAM -Ignore depressed Q2 GDP data in Brazil, Q3 will look better

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's services PMI points to Q2 GDP contraction. China's Caixin services PMI highlights the reasons for official concern over employment. Korea's current account slips into deficit for the first time since 2012.

8 July 2020 Global Monitor A double-dip recession in the U.S.? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The Q3 GDP data are under threat • EUROZONE - What does rising PMIs in the EZ mean? • U.K. - The BOE won't shrink its balance sheet anytime soon • ASIA - The Q2 GDP headline in Japan will be nasty • LATAM - A tepid rebound is now underway in Brazilian manufacturing

8 Apr 2020 Global Monitor U.S. labour market data are off the charts (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - March payrolls were poor, they'll be terrifying in April • EUROZONE - Grim EZ PMI data in March • U.K. - The U.K. won't do better than the rest of Europe in Q2 • ASIA - A v-shaped recovery in China is not certain • LATAM - The incoming data will soon confirm a deep recession in the region

7 Dec. 2015 Mexico's Leading Indicators Point to a Solid Fourth Quarter (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy is not accelerating, but it is holding up well in extremely difficult circumstances for EM. Growth is reasonably healthy, inflation is under control and the labor market is resilient. In short, Mexico is a success story, given the backdrop of plunging oil prices. The contrast with the disaster in Brazil is stark. Last week's survey and hard data continued to tell an upbeat story on Mexico's economy. The IMEF manufacturing index, Mexico's PMI, rose to 52.1 in November up from 51.6 in October, lifted mainly by gains in the employment and deliveries indexes.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with falling manufacturing output and a small drop in the PMI.

7th October 2020 Mexico's economy is still on the ropes (Publication Centre)

• U.S.- Trump's diagnosis doesn't alter his chances; he is still set to lose • EUROZONE - Core inflation is now uncomfortably low for the ECB • U.K.- Households won't spend their accumulated savings anytime soon • ASIA - China's manufacturing PMI was solid through Q3, will it continue in Q4? • LATAM - Mexico's economy is still on the ropes; more rate cuts on the way

EZ Datanote INSEE Business Confidence, France, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better than the PMIs, but the details in services were soft.

EZ Datanote: EZ Wage Growth and ZEW (Publication Centre)

In one line: Wage growth was slowing ahead of the Covid-19 shock; is the record m/m slide in ZEW a sign for the PMIs?

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't take the PMI's recession signal literally.

U.S. Datanote: Philadelphia Fed Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: More evidence that China's PMI upturn is filtering into U.S. manufacturing.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another positive sign, though the survey is not a precise guide to the PMI.

U.K Datanote: U.K. Prime Minister resignation (Publication Centre)

In one line: A no-deal Brexit remains an unlikely outcome, even with a "true" Brexiteer PM.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Exports hit by slowdown in shipments to Asia and the rest of Europe.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, we are now less worried about the weak PMIs.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Sentiment, France, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Much better than the PMIs.

26 August 2020 Global Monitor The virus is loosening its grip in LatAm (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The second wave is easing, but it isn't over yet • EUROZONE - August EZ PMIs were poor, but not terrible • U.K. - Inflation will fall further, despite the jump in July • ASIA - A narrow recovery for China's economy in Q3 • LATAM - Weak growth and low inflation as far as the eye can in LatAm

6 May 2020 Global Monitor Little hope for a change in this trend anytime soon (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Can Powell push Congress to act again? • EUROZONE - Has the ECB revived the carry trade in EZ government bonds? • U.K. - What are the options for the MPC this week? • ASIA - Don't be fooled by the relatively solid Chinese manufacturing PMI • LATAM - The LatAm economies are feeling the pain of Covid-19

7 January 2019 Don't Discount the Upswing in China's Services Caixin (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin services PMI for December surprised well to the upside, providing a glimmer of hope that the economy isn't losing steam on all fronts.

27 November 2017 The Outlook for Consumers' Spending is Deteriorating (Publication Centre)

Developments over the last month have heightened our concern about the near-term outlook for households' spending.

5 June 2019 The Fed will Ease if Trade Makes the Sky Fall in Otherwise, Patience (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell yesterday said about as little as he could without appearing to ignore the turmoil in markets since the President announced his intention to apply tariffs to imports from Mexico: "We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective."

28 Jan. 2016 FOMC is Focussed on the Labor Market - Global Events Matter Less (Publication Centre)

The FOMC flagged recent market developments as a source of risk to the U.S. economy yesterday, unsurprisingly, but didn't go overboard: "The Committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook."

27 May. 2016 Mr. Temer Starts to Deliver - Fiscal Measures are Positive, Overall (Publication Centre)

Recent political and economic developments in Brazil make us more confidence in our forecast of a gradual recovery. On Wednesday, interim President Michel Temer scored his first victory in Congress, winning approval for his request to raise this year's budget target to a more realistic level. Under the new target, Brazil's government plans to run a budget gap, before interest, of about 2.7% of GDP this year.

27 Mar. 2015 No Hit from Oil Sector's Troubles Yet - Gains Elsewhere Offsetting? (Publication Centre)

We argued in the Monitor yesterday that the plunge in capital spending on equipment in the oil sector could cost about 300K jobs over the course of this year. Adding in the potential hit from falling spending on structures, which likely will occur over a longer period, given the lead times in the construction process, the payroll hit this year could easily be 500K, or just over 40K per month.

26 Jan. 2016 IFO Points to Slow Start to Q1 for the German Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO report reinforced the message from the PMIs that the Eurozone economy stumbled slightly at the beginning of the first quarter. The headline business climate index fell to an 11-month low of 107.3 in January, from a revised 108.6 in December, hit mainly by a drop in the expectations component. Intensified market volatility and worries over further weakness in the Chinese economy likely were the main drivers. Last week's dovish message from Mr. Draghi, however, came after the survey's cut-off date, leaving us cautiously optimistic for a rebound next month.

26 May 2020 What are High Frequency Data telling us about the EZ Recovey (Publication Centre)

The official data lag developments in the real economy even at the best of times, but on this occasion the gap has turned into a chasm.

27 August. 2015 Dudley, Channelling Yellen, Signals September is (Nearly) Out (Publication Centre)

It's hard to imagine that Fed Vice-Chair Dudley would choose to say yesterday that he finds the case for a September rate hike "less compelling than it was a few weeks ago" without having had a chat beforehand with Chair Yellen. Mr. Dudley pointed out that the case "could become more compelling by the time of the meeting", depending on the data and the markets, but he also argued that developments in markets and overseas economies can "impinge" on the U.S., and that there "...still appears to be excess slack in the labor market". These ideas, especially on the labor market but also on the impact of events overseas, are not shared by the hawks, but we can't imagine Mr. Dudley disagreeing in public with Dr. Yellen. We have to assume these are her views too.

29 Jan 2020 Global Monitor Will Chinese GDP fall in Q1? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The Fed is on hold awaiting further developments • EUROZONE - The ECB treads water as it readies its policy review • U.K. - The post-election economic bounce will keep the MPC on hold • ASIA - The coronavirus could prompt a Q1 fall in Chinese GDP • LATAM - The CPI data in Brazil provides further support for a dovish COPOM

28 August 2019 Global Monitor Rate cuts on the way in Mexico and Brazil? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Trump is making it impossible for China to negotiate a trade deal • EUROZONE - EZ PMIs are stabilising, will the economy follow? • U.K. - Our U.K. service is on holiday, publication will resume on September 4 • ASIA - Chinese authorities will ease further, but they have limited space • LATAM - Downside inflation surprises point to rate cuts in Brazil and Mexico

29 June 2017 China's Debt is not too High, but it Grew too Fast - Reckoning will Come (Publication Centre)

China's total debt stock is high for a country at its stage of development, relative to GDP, but it is sustainable for country with excess savings. China was never going to be a typical EM, where external debtors can trigger a crisis by demanding payment.

4 December 2018 The Manufacturing Cycle has Peaked, but No Rollover Yet (Publication Centre)

The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index was a relief, after the sharp drop in October, though the strength in last week's Chicago PMI meant that it wasn't a complete surprise.

4 December 2019 Global Monitor Chile's economy hit a brick wall at the start of Q4 (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Business sentiment has bottomed, the hard data haven't • EUROZONE - Trust M1 amid mixed messages from economic data in the EZ • U.K. - Labour is chipping away at the Tories' lead, but not fast enough • ASIA - We don't trust the upturn in China's Caixin manufacturing PMI • LATAM - Uncertainty falls over LatAm's major economies, again

4 Sept 2019 The Conservatives' Poll Lead Does Not Have Strong Foundations (Publication Centre)

A general election this year now looks inevitable, after the defection of Phillip Lee MP from the Tories to the Lib Dems, and the PM's threat to seek an election if MPs take control of the Order Paper on Tuesday evening.

30 August 2017 Six Reasons why a Soft Brexit now is more Likely than Ever (Publication Centre)

Six developments over the summer have increased the likelihood that the government will make concessions required to preserve unfettered access to the single market after formally leaving the EU in March 2019.

30th September 2020 Global Monitor Spot the incentive to fire workers in the U.K. (Publication Centre)

• U.S.- 36 Days to go, who will win, and what will they do • EUROZONE - The PMIs point to a stalling recovery, but other surveys beg to differ • U.K.- The new job-retention scheme won't prevent a sharp rise in unemployment • ASIA - Controversial agricultural reforms in India deserve a shot • LATAM - More rate cuts on the way from Banxico

29 Oct. 2015 All Fed Eyes Now on the October, November Employment Reports (Publication Centre)

The Fed yesterday toned down its warnings on the potential impact on the U.S. of "global economic and financial developments", and upgraded its view on the domestic economy, pointing out that consumption and fixed investment "have been increasing at solid rates in recent months". In September, they were merely growing "moderately". Policymakers are still "monitoring" global and market developments, but the urgency and fear of September has gone. The statement acknowledged the slower payroll gains of recent months--without offering an explanation--but pointed out, as usual, that "underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year" and that it will be appropriate to begin raising rates "some further improvement in the labor market".

29 Sept 2020 India's Labour Reforms Go Hand-in-Hand with the Agri-Revolution (Publication Centre)

Last week, we wrote about the significant legislative developments in India's agricultural sector--see here-- which potentially could expedite the economy's move up the value chain, by unleashing surplus workers from farms.

3 Sept 2019 If China Doesn't Budge as Tariffs Rise, Mr. Trump will Blink, Eventually (Publication Centre)

After a week--yes, a whole week!--with no significant new developments in the trade war with China--it's worth stepping back and asking a couple of fundamental questions, which might give us some clues as to what will happen over the months ahead.

BBC - UK economic growth 'stalls' as service sector slides (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. PMI data in November

Samuel Tombs

Samuel Tombs has more than a decade of experience covering the U.K. economy for investors. At Pantheon, Samuel's research is rigorous, free of dogma and jargon, and unafraid to challenge consensus views. His work focuses on what matters to professional investors: The links between the real economy, monetary policy and asset prices. He has a strong track record of getting the big calls right. The Sunday Times ranked Samuel as the most accurate forecaster of the U.K. economy in both 2014 and 2018. In addition, Bloomberg consistently has ranked Samuel as one of the top three U.K. forecasters, out of pool of 35 economists, throughout 2018 and 2019. His in-depth knowledge of market-moving data and his forensic forecasting approach explain why he consistently beats the consensus. Samuel's work on Brexit goes beyond simply reporting developments and is always analytical and unbiased, enabling investors to see through the noise of the daily headlines. While his analysis points to a particular path that politicians will take, he acknowledges the inherent uncertainty and draws out the economic and financial market implications of all plausible Brexit scenarios. Samuel holds an MSc in Economics from Birkbeck College, University of London and an undergraduate degree in History and Economics from the University of Oxford. Prior to joining Pantheon in 2015, he was Senior U.K. Economist at Capital Economics. In 2011, Samuel won the Society of Business Economists' prestigious Rybczynski Prize for an article on quantitative easing in the UK. He is based in London but frequently visits our other offices. Recent key calls include: 2018 - Correctly forecast that GDP growth would slow and inflation would undershoot the MPC's initial forecast, prompting the Committee to shock investors and almost other economists by waiting until August to raise Bank Rate, rather than pressing ahead in May. 2017 - Argued that the MPC was wrong to expect CPI inflation to stay below 3% following sterling's depreciation. He also highlighted that economic indicators pointed to the Conservatives losing their outright majority in the snap general election.

BLOOMBERG - Brexit vote wreaks havoc on U.K. Economy (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K PMIs

CITY AM - Eurozone economy comes off the boil in January despite rebound in end-of-year retail sales (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone economist Claus Vistesen comments on the Eurozone PMIs

GUARDIAN - UK service companies anxious about year ahead (Media Centre)

Chief U.K.. economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. PMI

INDEPENDENT - The chart that shows the UK economic recovery is "on its knees" (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. PMI data, April

Softer February survey data in the Eurozone (Media Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Eurozone economist Claus Vistesen discusses the latest survey data and political developments in the Eurozone economy.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 August 2020 (Publication Centre)

The worst--for the economy--is over in Japan, but the recovery will be muted

5 July 2018 ADP Likely to Report Another Solid Gain in Payrolls (Publication Centre)

Payroll growth rebounded to 223K in May, after two sub-200K readings, and we're expecting today's June ADP report to signal that labor demand remains strong.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Machine tool orders in Japan are still in the doldrums.

THE GUARDIAN - UK manufacturing growth slows in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

Question of the Week, WC 11th June (Media Centre)

Are there any signs that the U.S. tax cuts and/or regulatory relaxation are stimulating increased non-residential fixed investment?

Reuters - British economy on track for biggest contraction 'in living memory' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

Question of the Week, WC 7th September 2020 (Media Centre)

Has the Internal Market Bill killed off the chances of a trade deal with the E.U.?

Eurozone Webinar September 2020: What's the ECB's Next Move? (Media Centre)

What's the ECB's Next Move?

About Us

Pantheon Macroeconomics' Chief Economist Dr. Ian Shepherdson provides unbiased, independent economic intelligence to financial market professionals.

Freya Beamish

Freya Beamish produces the Asia service at Pantheon. She has several years of experience in covering the global economy, with a particular focus on China, Japan and Korea. Previously, she worked at Lombard Street Research (now TS Lombard), where she delivered research on Asia and the Global economy for over five years, latterly as the manager of the Macroeconomics group.

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