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33 matches for " oil production":

25 September 2017 Oil Output has Already Rebounded from the Harvey Hit (Publication Centre)

The rising trend in U.S. oil production was interrupted only briefly by the hurricanes.

10 Dec. 2015 Lower Oil Prices are Only Modestly Positive for the U.K. Economy (Publication Centre)

The U.K. is one of the smallest winners among advanced economies from the precipitous decline in oil prices. British oil production still fulfils about 55% of the U.K.'s demand, even though it has declined by two-thirds since its 1999 peak. Oil consumption therefore exceeds production by a much smaller margin in the U.K. than in most other European countries. As a result, the boost to the U.K. economy from the $10 decline in oil prices over the last month isn't much to write home about.

20 July. 2016 Venezuela's Crisis is Escalating, Made Worse by Low Oil Prices (Publication Centre)

Venezuela is on the brink o f economic and social collapse. Looting, food scarcity, power rationing, and other problems have become rampant. This week, Venezuela's government allowed citizens to flock across the Colombian border to shop for food and medicine, for the second time this month. Last year, Venezuela's President Maduro shut the border in a bid to crack down on smuggling of subsidized products.

21 May 2018 Higher Oil Prices won't Kill the Economy, A Boost is a Better Bet (Publication Centre)

Oil prices have risen by about $20 per barrel since last fall.

20 Apr. 2016 Capex Growth Will Mean-Revert As the Drop in Oil Spending Ends (Publication Centre)

As we're writing, the price of U.S. crude oil is only about 50 cents per barrel lower than on Thursday, when markets began to anticipate an OPEC deal to cut production over the weekend. The failure of the Doha talks generated an initial sharp drop in oil prices, but the damage now is very limited, as our first chart shows.

2 May 2017 Economic Activity in Mexico Remains Strong, but Will Slow (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recovery has been steady in recent months, and Q1 likely will mark the end of the recession. The gradual recovery of the industrial and agricultural sectors has been the highlight, thanks to improving external demand, the lagged effect of the more competitive BRL, and the more stable political situation, which has boosted sentiment.

17 November 2017 Manufacturing Output Rebounds, but no Boom Coming (Publication Centre)

The spectacular 1.3% rebound in manufacturing output last month -- the biggest jump in seven years, apart from an Easter-distorted April gain -- does not change our core view that activity in the sector is no longer accelerating.

17 October 2017 Manufacturing Sector set for Modest Post-Hurricane Rebound? (Publication Centre)

The first October survey evidence from the industrial economy, in the form of the Empire State report, is remarkably strong.

22 August 2018 Venezuela's Economic Crisis Will Deteriorate Despite Recent Plan (Publication Centre)

To imagine an unstoppable macroeconomic policy disaster and desperate improvisation, just think of Venezuela.

23 May. 2016 Does the Fed Funds Laffer Curve Explain Sluggish Growth? (Publication Centre)

Like just about everyone else, we have struggled in recent years to find a convincing explanation for the persistent sluggishness of growth even as the Fed has cut rates to zero and expanded its balance sheet to a peak of $4.2T. Sure, we can explain the slowdown in growth in 2010, when the post-crash stimulus ended, and the subsequent softening in 2013, when government spending was cut by the sequester.

9 March 2018 January's Production Rebound will Conceal a Manufacturing Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The industrial sector went from strength to strength in 2017. Year-over-year growth in production picked up to 2.1%--its highest rate since 2010--from 1.3% in 2016.

US 15 September 2017 Core CPI Mean-Reverts, Hefty Storm-Induced Increases Ahead? (Publication Centre)

The run of soft core CPI numbers is over. The average 0.18% increase over the past two months probably is a good indication of the underlying trend -- the prints would have been close to this pace in both months had it not been for wild swings in the lodging component -- and the other one-time oddities of recent months' have faded.

8 November. 2016 Weather--not Brexit--is Culpable for Production and Retail Sales Swings (Publication Centre)

It would be a mistake to conclude much about the economic impact of the Brexit vote from today's official industrial production figures for September, and the British Retail Consortium's figures for retail sales in October.

7 July 2017 Production Likely Jumped in May, but Q2 GDP Still Will b e Soft (Publication Centre)

Markets likely will be particularly sensitive to May's industrial production and construction output figures, released today, as they will provide a guide to the strength of the preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP, released shortly before the MPC's key meeting on August 3.

17 July 2017 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Subdued, Oil is Mainly to Blame (Publication Centre)

Upbeat survey data and relatively resilient consumer spending numbers indicate that the Mexican economy is in good shape, despite a marginal slowdown in most of Q2.

27 September 2017 Yellen is Following the Tightening Labor Market, it's Telling her to Hike (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen's speech in Cleveland yesterday elaborated on the key themes from last week's FOMC meeting.

22 June 2017 Falling Oil Prices will hit Mining Capex, but no Repeat of 2014 to 16 (Publication Centre)

The renewed slide in oil prices in recent weeks will crimp capital spending, at the margin, but it is not a macroeconomic threat on the scale of the 2014-to-16 hit.

15 Sept. 2015 August Retail Sales "Soft" Again? But the Real Story is Different (Publication Centre)

Today's wave of data will be mixed, but most of the headlines are likely to be on the soft side, so the reports are very unlikely to trigger a wave of last minute defections to the hawkish side of the FOMC. As always, though, the headlines don't necessarily capture the underlying story, and that's certainly been the case with the retail sales data this year. Plunging prices for gas and imported goods, especially audio-video items, have driven down the rate of growth of nominal retail sales, but real sales have performed much better.

10 November 2017 Data to Confirm Production Picked Up but Net Trade Hit Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

September's industrial production figures likely will not surprise markets today. We look for a 0.3% month-to-month rise in production, matching the consensus and the ONS assumption in the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP.

17 Feb. 2016 Behind Utility-Hit Headlines, the Industrial Sector is Growing, Jus (Publication Centre)

If the collapse in oil sector capex and the strong dollar were going to push the industrial economy into recession, it probably would have started by now

04 Jan. 2016 Further Slowdown Won't Prevent the MPC Raising Rates in 2016 (Publication Centre)

Markets were on the right side of the argument with economists about the outlook for monetary policy in 2015, but we doubt history will repeat itself this year. The consensus among economists a year ago was for interest rates to rise to 0.75% from 0.5% by the end of 2015, in contrast to the markets' view that an increase was unlikely.

10 October 2017 Industrial Production Likely to Surprise to the Downside Again (Publication Centre)

Industrial production figures look set to surprise the consensus to the downside again today. We think that production was flat on a month-to-month basis in August, falling short of the consensus forecast of 0.2% growth.

1 November. 2016 The Recovery in Mexico is Solid, Hampered By Weak Mining (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy grew 1.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, the fastest pace since 2014, following a 0.2% contraction in Q2, according to the preliminary report published yesterday.

14 March 2018 Fundamentals for Brazilian Consumers Continue to Improve (Publication Centre)

The consumer in Brazil was off to a strong start to the first quarter, and we expect household spending will continue to boost GDP growth in the near term.

13 September 2017 Brazilian Consumers' Spending set to Keep Rising Steadily (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday in Brazil are consistent with our view that private consumption will continue to drive the recovery over the second half, offsetting the ongoing weakness in private investment.

13 June 2018 Mexico's Manufacturing Activity in April was Weak, but it Will Improve (Publication Centre)

Mexico's industrial recovery, which began in late Q4, lost momentum at the start of the second quarter.

11 Nov. 2015 The Revival in North Sea Oil Production Won't Last (Publication Centre)

The large unexpected surge in oil and gas output this year has boosted the overall economic recovery significantly. But this looks like the last hurrah for a sector of the U.K. economy in terminal decline.

13 Mar. 2015 What Next For Oil Prices? Saudi Arabia Holds the Key (Publication Centre)

Straight-line extrapolations are always risky--nothing lasts forever--but if you allow us the indulgence, our first chart suggests that domestic U.S. oil production will breach 10M barrels per day by the summer.

10 January 2017 Production Likely Surged in November, but Trend Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

The consensus expectation that industrial production rose by 1.0% month-to-month in November is far too low; we expect Wednesday's data to show a jump of 2.0% or so. The rebound, however, should not be interpreted as another sign that the economy has been revitalised by the Brexit vote. Instead, we expect the rise chiefly to reflect volatility in oil production and heating energy supply.

16 Feb. 2016 The Great Shale Oil Crunch is Underway - Production is Falling (Publication Centre)

Outside the U.S., global oil production is dominated by national oil companies, which are effectively arms of their states. State actors respond differently to private oil producers when prices fall, especially in states where oil revenues are the key element of government cashflow.

16 Jan. 2015 - Oil Output is Holding up, but Still Downside Risk for December IP (Publication Centre)

The latest data from the Energy Department show that the feared collapse in U.S. oil production in the wake of the plunge in crude prices has no t started yet. The number of rigs in operation is falling sharply, but our first chart shows it is not yet approaching the collapse seen after the financial crash.

26 Jan. 2016 The Collapse in Oil Prices Won't Reinvigorate the Economy in 2016 (Publication Centre)

The response of U.K. producers and consumers to lower oil prices could not have been more different to those on the other side of the Atlantic. Counter-intuitively, U.K. oil production has grown strongly over the last year, while investment hasn't collapsed to the same extent as in the U.S., yet. Meanwhile, U.K. households have thrown caution to the wind and already have spent the windfall from the previous drop in oil prices, unlike their more prudent--so far--U.S. counterparts. With the costs still to come but most of the benefits already enjoyed, lower oil prices will be neutral for 2016 U.K. GDP growth, at best.

1 Dec. 2015 Plunging Oil Prices Shift Income to Consumers From Producers (Publication Centre)

The big story in global macro over the past 18 months or so has been the gigantic transfer of income from oil producers to oil consumers. The final verdict on the net impact of this shift--worth nearly $2T at an annualized rate--is not yet clear, because the boost to consumption takes longer than the hit to oil firms ' capex, which began to collapse just a few months after prices began to fall sharply. But our first chart, which shows oil production by country as a share of oil consumption, plotted against the change in real year-over-year GDP growth between Q2 2014 and Q2 2015, tells a clear story.

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