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20 February 2019 Peru's Economic Activity is Improving, Offsetting External Risks (Publication Centre)

Peru's economic recovery gathered strength late last year.

20 Nov. 2015 Economic Conditions Deteriorate in Brazil - No Bottom Just Yet (Publication Centre)

This week economic data highlighted the severity of Brazil's economic recession and the huge challenges it will face next year to return to growth. The recession further deepened in the third quarter with the economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--surprising, once again, to the downside in September. The index fell 0.5% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 6.2%, the steepest fall on record. The series is very volatile on a monthly basis, but the underlying trend remains grim.

20 August 2018 Don't Believe the Scare Stories About Rising No-Deal Brexit Risk (Publication Centre)

Investors have become more concerned about a no-deal Brexit.

2 Sept. 2015 Chile's Economic Recovery Stutters, Risks To Growth Increase (Publication Centre)

Chile's activity numbers at the beginning of Q3 were mediocre, suggesting that the economy remains sluggish. The industrial production index--comprising mining, manufacturing, and utility output--fell by 1.7% year-over-year in July, reversing a 1.6% expansion in June. A disappointing 4.5% year-over-year contraction in mining activity depressed the July headline index, following a 1.4% increase in June. The moderation in output growth was due to maintenance-related shutdowns at key processing plants, and disruptions from labor strikes, especially a three-week strike by contract workers at Codelco--the state-owned mining firm--which badly hit production.

2 November 2017 2017 The ECB Probably Should Lower its Inflation Target, but it Won't (Publication Centre)

Policymakers and macroeconomic forecasters at the ECB will be doing some soul-searching this week. GDP growth in the euro area accelerated to a punchy 2.5% year-over-year in Q3, and unemployment dipped to a cyclical low of 8.9%.

20 Nov. 2015 Will Corporate Yields Become a Good Leading Indicator Again? (Publication Centre)

In the years before the crash of 2008, if you wanted to know what was likely to happen to the pace of U.S. economic growth, all you needed to know was what happened to corporate bond yields a year earlier. The correlation between movements in BBB industrial yields--not spreads--and the changes in the rate of GDP growth, lagged by a year, was remarkably strong from 1994 through 2008, as our first chart shows. Roughly, a 50 basis point increase in yields could be expected to reduce the pace of year-over-year GDP growth--the second differential, in other words--by about 1.5 percentage points.

20 November 2017 Terrible Timing for Tax Cuts -- if they Pass, the Fed Will Hike More Quickly (Publication Centre)

The passage of the House tax cut bill does not guarantee that the Senate will follow suit with its own bill, still less that both chambers will then be able to agree on a single bill which can then b e signed into law. As

21 August 2017 Chile's Economy is Improving, but Expect Only Modest Growth in H2 (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q2 GDP report, released on Friday, confirmed that the economy gathered momentum in recent months, following an alarmingly weak start to the year.

21 August 2017 Growth Momentum and Slow Hikes Means no Recession Until 2019 (Publication Centre)

We have had something of a rethink about the likely timing of the coming cyclical downturn. Previously, we thought the economy would start to slow markedly in the middle of next year, with a mild recession--two quarters of modest declines in GDP-- beginning in the fourth quarter.

20 September 2016 Will Weaker Sterling Ride to the Economy's Rescue? (Publication Centre)

Hopes that the economy will not slow over the next year are largely pinned on the idea that net trade will be boosted by the drop in sterling. The pound has tracked sideways over the last two months and is about 15% below its trade-weighted peak in November 2015.

20 October 2017 The Spanish Economy is Resilient to the Chaos in Catalonia, for Now (Publication Centre)

The Spanish economy has been punching above its weight in the current business cycle. Real GDP growth has trended at about 0.8% quarter-on-quarter since 2015, far outpacing the other major EZ economies.

20 November 2017 Will Argentina Succeed in Tackling High Inflation and Fiscal Deficits? (Publication Centre)

Argentina's economy is firing on all cylinders, thanks to improving fundamentals and a positive external backdrop.

2 May 2019 Are Consensus-Beating Economic Data a Signal to Buy the Euro (Publication Centre)

In broad terms, the euro has followed the EZ economy in the past 12-to-18 months.

2 May 2018 Fed to Acknowledge Higher In ation, but no Policy Shi Signal is Likely (Publication Centre)

The Fed will do nothing and say little that's new after its meeting today. The data on economic activity have been mixed since the March meeting, when rates were hiked and the economic forecasts were upgraded, largely as a result of the fiscal stimulus.

19 November 2018 Only a Disaster Would Make the ECB Blink on Ending QE in Q4 (Publication Centre)

It's been a sobering couple of months in the Eurozone economy.

19 September 2016 Surging Narrow Money Growth is Not a Good Sign (Publication Centre)

Our view that the economy is slowing sharply appears, superficially, to be challenged by the surge in the money supply. Year-over-year growth in the value of banknotes and coins in circulation has shot up this year, to 8.3% in August, from 5.5% in December 2015.

19 June 2019 Another One Bites the Dust Growth Cools Temporarily in Peru (Publication Centre)

Peru's April supply-side monthly GDP data confirm that the economic rebound lost momentum at the start of the second quarter.

19 July 2017 Peru's Economy is Recovering But Temporary Political Noise is a Drag (Publication Centre)

Following a challenging start to this year, Andean economic prospects are improving gradually, thanks to falling interest rates, lower inflation, relatively stable currencies and--in some cases--increased infrastructure spending.

19 February 2019 A 2019 General Election No Longer is So Implausible (Publication Centre)

The decision by seven MPs to abandon Labour and set up a new centrist grouping--the Independent Group--will not have a significant impact on the outcome of parliamentary Brexit votes.

19 September 2017 Separatists in Catalonia are on the Road to Nowhere (Publication Centre)

The face-off is intensifying between Madrid and the pro-independent local government in Catalonia. A referendum on independence in the northeastern state has been rejected by the Spanish government and has been declared constitutionally illegal by the high court.

19 September 2018 Brazil's Economy is Muddling Through, but the Election is a Risk (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economy surprised to the upside in early Q3, despite downbeat data released in recent days.

2 July 2018 Construction Activity is Accelerating, it's not Just Hurricane Repairs (Publication Centre)

Perhaps the single strongest U.S. economic data series in recent months has been construction spending, which has risen by more than 1%, month-to-month, in four of the past five months.

2 February 2017 Greece is another EZ risk to contend with this year (Publication Centre)

The Greek economy escaped recession in the second half of last year. Real GDP rose a cumulative 1.2% in Q2 and Q3, following a 0.6% fall in Q1. And industrial production and retail sales data suggest that the advance GDP report released later this month will show that the momentum was sustained in Q4. Headline survey data, however, indicate that downside risks to the economy remain.

2 August 2018 No Change in the Message from the FOMC Expect Sep. Dec. Hikes (Publication Centre)

The FOMC did nothing yesterday and said nothing significantly different from its June statement, as was universally expected.

19 September 2018 How Would the MPC Respond to a No-deal Brexit? (Publication Centre)

A no-deal Brexit is a remote possibility. The U.K. government and EU are closing in on a deal and Brexiteers within the Conservative party have failed, so far, to trigger a confidence vote on Mrs. May's leadership.

21 December 2018 What Happened in the French Economy in the Fourth Quarter (Publication Centre)

This is the final report before we dial down for our Christmas break, and we are happy to report that the economic calendar will be almost empty in our absence.

21 February 2018 The ECB is in the Headlines, But Not Because of its Monetary Policy (Publication Centre)

Politics are once again encroaching on the economic story in the Eurozone. At the ECB, this week has so far been a tumultuous one.

25 April 2017 Mexico's IGAE Confirms a Surprisingly Firm Economy in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Economic activity in Mexico during the past few months has been stronger than most observers expected. Growth has certainly moderated from the relatively strong pace recorded during the second half of last year, but data for January and February show that it is still quite strong.

25 February 2019 Will Business Investment Really Rebound if No-Deal is Avoided? (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the potential for a tangible boost to GDP growth from a revival in business investment after a no-deal Brexit has been averted appears modest.

24 Nov. 2015 A New Political Era For Argentina - Will the Economy Recover? (Publication Centre)

Mauricio Macri, the centre-right candidate of the Cambiemos--Let's Change--coalition won Argentina's weekend presidential election. Mr. Macri, the mayor of Buenos Aires, defeated Daniel Scioli, of the ruling Front for Victory--FpV--coalition on Sunday. His victory marks the end of the 12-year Kirchnerist era, characterized by wild inflation, huge public deficits and unsustainable subsidies. If Mr. Macri lives up to his promises, Argentina, the second-largest economy in South America, will become an orthodox economy on a sustainable path. The recovery will come, we think, but it will be a long and challenging process.

24 August 2018 What Probability are Markets Attaching to a No-Deal Brexit? (Publication Centre)

Speculation that the U.K. will end up leaving the E.U. in March without a deal has dominated the headlines over the last month. Politicians on both sides of the Channel have warned that the probability of a no-deal Brexit is at least as high as 50%, even though more than 80% of the withdrawal deal already has been agreed.

24 April 2019 Colombia's Economy is Gathering Speed following a Soft End to 2018 (Publication Centre)

Colombia's recently-released data signal that the economy started the year quite strongly, following a relatively poor end to Q4.

25 July 2017 The July PMIs Provide a Dose of Reality on the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMIs kicked off a busy week for Eurozone data on a downbeat note. The composite EZ PMI fell to a five-month low of 55.8 in July, from 56.3 in June; it was constrained by a 0.6 point dip in the manufacturing index to 56.8.

25 July 2018 The PMIs are Probably Telling the True Story on the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first batch of Q3 survey data in the Eurozone suggest that economic growth eased further, albeit it slightly, at the start of the quarter.

26 July 2017 National Surveys are Not Bogged Down by Disappointing PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national business surveys provided an optimistic counterbalance to the underwhelming PMIs on Monday, although they all suggest that the euro area economy is in good form.

26 July 2019 A Guide to Gauging How Much No- Deal Brexit Risk is Priced-in (Publication Centre)

In our view, the chances of a no-deal Brexit on October 31 have not surged just because Boris Johnson has become Prime Minister and is gesticulating wildly at the Despatch Box.

26 February 2018 Non-Core Inflation Complicates BoJ Policy, Mr. Kuroda's Legacy at Stake (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation has risen sharply in recent months, driven by non-core elements. The headline faces cross-currents in coming months, but should remain high, posing problems for BoJ policy.

25 September 2017 Argentina's Economy is Improving, Good News for Macri and Markets (Publication Centre)

Argentina's economy continues to recover steadily.

25 Nov. 2015 IFO Repeats Message from PMIs: German Economy is in Good Form (Publication Centre)

Survey data in Germany continue to tell an upbeat story on the economy. The IFO business climate index rose to 109.0 in November from 108.2 in October, lifted by gains in both the expectations and current assessment indexes. The IFO tends to be slightly over-optimistic on GDP growth, but our first chart shows that the survey points to upside risks in the fourth quarter.

23 November 2018 Lower Oil Prices are Another Tailwind for 2019 (Publication Centre)

The recent plunge in oil prices is another positive development, alongside looser fiscal policy and the striking of a Brexit deal with the E.U., pointing to scope for GDP growth to pick up next year.

23 Nov. 2015 The Challenge of Surging Migration Won't Go Away Soon (Publication Centre)

The flow of Middle-Eastern refugees taking the treacherous journey towards Europe continues unabated. UNHCR estimates of arrivals through the Western Balkan route--mainly originating from Greece and Serbia--suggest the average daily number of refugees has been stable so far between October and November at about 11,000. These data are very unreliable, but they indicate that the onset of winter on the European continent--and the added risk to migrants with no shelter--will not deter people from attempting the trip to Europe.

22 August 2017 Economic Activity is Turning Up in LatAm, but no Boom Coming (Publication Centre)

LatAm's economies are gradually rebounding, boosted by easier monetary policy in most countries, falling inflation, and a relatively calm external backdrop.

22 August 2018 Venezuela's Economic Crisis Will Deteriorate Despite Recent Plan (Publication Centre)

To imagine an unstoppable macroeconomic policy disaster and desperate improvisation, just think of Venezuela.

21 Sept. 2015 Don't Focus on Industry - The U.S. is a Domestic Services Economy (Publication Centre)

The economy is bifurcating. Manufacturing is weak, and likely will remain so for some time, though talk of recession in the sector is overdone. Even more overdone is the idea that the softness of the industrial sector will somehow drag down the rest of the economy, which is more than seven times bigger.

21 November 2018 The Curious Case of the Crash in the French Housing Market (Publication Centre)

The French economy has suffered from weakness in manufacturing this year, alongside the other major EZ economies.

21 May 2019 Chile's Economy Struggled in Q1, and the Near-Term Outlook is Poor (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q1 GDP report, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy weakened sharply at the beginning of the year, due mainly to temporary shocks, including adverse weather conditions.

22 Dec. 2015 Miserable Economic And Political News Keeps Coming For Brazil (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recent political and economics news has shifted the near-term outlook from bad to worse. President Rousseff on Friday replaced hawkish Finance Minister Joaquim Levy, appointed just over a year ago, with a close partner, Planning Minister Nelson Barbosa. Mr. Levy resigned after continued conflicts with the government, including frustration by the Congress of his attempts to rein in the fiscal mess. Mr. Barbosa is known to be less market friendly, and will likely defend countercyclical measures, delaying any rapid fiscal consolidation. The appointment will deteriorate investors' confidence even further, placing the markets under enormous strain.

22 December 2017 Strong November Consumption Sets Course for 3½% Q4 Gain? (Publication Centre)

This is the final U.S. Economic Monitor of 2017, a year which has seen the economy strengthen, the labor market tighten substantially, and the Fed raise rates three times, with zero deleterious effect on growth.

23 May 2018 The Mexican Economy is Getting Better, Despite Rising Political Risks (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's March retail sales report for Mexico is in line with other recently released hard and survey data, painting an upbeat picture of the economy.

23 Nov. 2015 Domestic Demand Offsets External Woes in Mexico and Colombia (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy gathered momentum in Q3, thanks mainly to solid gains in industrial and services activity. Real GDP rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, the fastest pace since Q3 2013 and the ninth consecutive increase. Year-over-year growth rose to 2.6% year-over-year, from 2.3% in Q2. In short, a positive report, surprising to the upside, and above the INEGI's advance estimate, released in late October.

23 August 2017 All Systems Go for Italy's Economy, but Don't ask About the Long Run (Publication Centre)

The performance of Italy's economy in the first half of 2017 proves that the strengthening euro area recovery is a tide lifting all the r egion's boats.

23 April 2019 Brazil's Economy will Improve, but Rising Political Risk Remains a Drag (Publication Centre)

The economic data in Brazil were poor while we were away.

22 Mar. 2016 Will Economic Survey Data Step Back From the Brink this Week? (Publication Centre)

Financial markets and economic survey data have been sending a downbeat message on the Eurozone economy so far this year. The composite PMI has declined to a 12-month low, consumer sentiment has weakened, and national business surveys have also been poor.

19 Feb. 2016 The Main EZ Economies Will Try to Accommodate Mr. Cameron (Publication Centre)

Talks between the EU and the U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron are expected to culminate with a deal today, but we doubt this week's summit will be the final word. A detailed re-negotiation of the U.K.'s relationship with the EU is the last thing the large continental economies need at the moment.

19 December 2016 How Much Support can Tourism Provide to the Economy? (Publication Centre)

The media abounds with anecdotal evidence of a pickup in domestic and inbound tourism following sterling's sharp depreciation, but the reality is that the weaker pound has not had a tangible positive impact yet.

13 January 2017 The Eurozone Economy Remains Oblivious to Political Risks (Publication Centre)

The euro area economy continues to defy rising political uncertainty. Data yesterday showed that industrial production, ex-construction, in the Eurozone jumped 1.5% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 3.2% from a revised 0.8% in October. Output rose in all the major economies, but the headline was flattered by a 16.3% month-to-month leap in Ireland. This was due to a production jump in Ireland's "modern sector" which includes the country's large multinational technology sector.

13 June 2017 The Eurozone and Asia's Big Economies are Joined at the Hip (Publication Centre)

In her inaugural Monitor, our Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish plots three scenarios for the Chinese economy. The best-case scenario is that China makes a smooth transition to consumer-led growth.

13 February 2019 A Weaker Pound Wouldn't be a Silver Lining in a No-deal Dystopia (Publication Centre)

Brexiteers have downplayed the economic consequences of a no-deal exit by arguing that a further depreciation of sterling would cushion the blow.

12 September 2018 How Much is the Spanish Economy Slowing This Year (Publication Centre)

The Spanish economy remains the stand-out performer in the Eurozone, but recent data suggest that growth is slowing.

12 October 2018 What Happens Under Maximum China Tariffs Clue It's not Good (Publication Centre)

The imposition of 10% tariffs on $200B-worth of Chinese imports is not a serious threat either to U.S. economic growth--the tariffs amount to 0.1% of GDP--or inflation.

13 June 2019 Let's Take a Minute to Cheer the Strengthening French Economy (Publication Centre)

On all accounts, growth in France has been modest in the past six-to-12 months, but in relative terms, the French economy is slowly but surely asserting itself as one of the key engines of growth in the EZ.

13 March 2019 Brexit Uncertainty Set to Continue into Q2, but the Economy Can Cope (Publication Centre)

As we go to press, Mrs. May's last-minute scramble to Strasbourg appears to have failed to persuade enough rebels to back the government.

14 Aug 2019 Labour Market Data Point to Higher Rates if a No-Deal Brexit is Averted (Publication Centre)

Another month, another strong set of labour market data which undermine the case for the MPC to cut Bank Rate, provided a no-deal Brexit is avoided.

14 December 2018 Remainer Tory Rebels now have Greater Leverage (Publication Centre)

After the drama of the last few days, Brexit developments now are set to proceed at a slower pace.

13 Oct. 2015 Could Higher Rates Really "Spur" Faster Economic Growth? (Publication Centre)

What should we make of the view of Fed hawks, set out with admirable clarity in the September FOMC minutes, that higher rates "might spur rather than restrain economic activity"? The core story behind this counter-intuitive proposal is the idea that zero rates send a signal to the private sector that the Fed is deeply worried about the state of the economy.

13 November 2018 When the Fiscal Push Fades, the Exposed Economy will Slow, Sharply (Publication Centre)

In the olden days, by which we mean the 15 years or so leading up to the financial crisis, a 100bp rise in long yields would be enough to slow GDP growth by about three percentage points, other things equal, after a lag of about one year.

13 November 2018 Argentina's Cyclical Stabilization Continues 2019 Likely Will be Better (Publication Centre)

The sharp currency sell-off in Q2 and Q3, the financial crisis and tighter monetary and fiscal policies have pushed the Argentinian economy under stress since Q2.

12 November 2018 How to Look Desperate in Trying to Stem China's Pledged Share Crisis (Publication Centre)

Last week, the Chinese authorities were out in force, talking up the economy and markets, and bearing measures to support private firms.

12 November 2018 Further Downgrades to 2018 EZ GDP Growth are on their Way (Publication Centre)

The economic data were mixed while we were away. The final PMI data showed that the composite PMI in the euro area fell to 53.1 in October, from 54.1 in September, somewhat better than the initial estimate, 52.7.

11 Dec. 2015 Brazil's Economic Woes Deepen as Inflation Hits a 12-Year High (Publication Centre)

Brazil's inflation rate is in double digits for the first time in 12 years. The benchmark IPCA price index rose 1.0% month-to-month in November, lifting the year-over-year rate to 10.5%, the highest since November 2003. The core IPCA increased 0.7% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate in November up to 8.9% from 8.6% in October.

11 January 2019 How to Read the Recent Collapse in the EZ Economic Data (Publication Centre)

Economic data in the euro area are still slipping and sliding.

10 November 2017 Data to Confirm Production Picked Up but Net Trade Hit Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

September's industrial production figures likely will not surprise markets today. We look for a 0.3% month-to-month rise in production, matching the consensus and the ONS assumption in the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP.

10 June 2019 Job Gains will Rebound, May's Slowdown is no Reason to Cut Rates (Publication Centre)

Payroll growth has slowed, no matter how you slice and dice the numbers.

10 January 2017 The German Economy Fired on All Cylinders in the Fourth Quarter (Publication Centre)

Survey data have been signalling a stronger German economy in the last few months, and hard data are beginning to confirm this story. Data yesterday showed that industrial production rose 0.4% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 2.2%, from an upwardly-revised 1.6% in October. The headline was boosted mainly by a 1.5% month-to-month jump in construction and a 0.9% rise in intermediate goods production.

11 May 2018 Mexico's Economy on the Mend, but Politics is Now the Biggest Risk (Publication Centre)

This week's data confirmed Mexico's strong economic performance over the first few months of this year.

11 Nov. 2015 The Revival in North Sea Oil Production Won't Last (Publication Centre)

The large unexpected surge in oil and gas output this year has boosted the overall economic recovery significantly. But this looks like the last hurrah for a sector of the U.K. economy in terminal decline.

12 Feb. 2016 Mexico's Industrial Economy Struggled in Q4 - Better Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Mexican industrial data painted a downbeat picture of the sector at the end of last year, and highlighted the downside risks facing the economy in the first half of this year. Industrial output fell 0.1% month-to-month and was flat year over-year in December, with weakness in all sectors except manufacturing. Overall, industrial activity expanded by only 0.2% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, the slowest pace since late 2013.

12 January 2017 GDP Growth Likely Edged Down in Q4, Despite November's IP Surge (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production, construction output and trade data for November collectively suggest that the economy lost a little momentum in the fourth quarter. GDP growth likely slowed to 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, from 0.6% in Q3. Growth remains set to slow further this year, as inflation shoots up and constrains consumers.

12 Feb. 2016 Collapse in Equity Prices Still Not a Convincing Signal of Recession (Publication Centre)

The downturn in equity prices deepened yesterday, with the FTSE 100 index closing at 5,537, 22% below its April 2015 peak. We remain unconvinced, however, that financial market turmoil is set to push the U.K. economy into a recession. We continue to take comfort from the weakness of the past relationship between equity prices and economic activity.

12 December 2017 CPI Inflation Likely Peaked in November, but Will Soon Fall Swiftly (Publication Centre)

Today's consumer prices figures likely will show that CPI inflation increased to 3.1% in November, from 3.0% in October.

11 October. 2016 Unemployment has Stopped Falling, For Now (Publication Centre)

The single most startling development in the labor market data in recent months is acceleration in labor force growth. The participation rate has risen only marginally, because employment has continued to climb too, but the absolute size of the labor force is now expanding at its fastest pace in nine years, up 1.9% in the year to September.

14 June 2019 If the BoK Blinks--and Cuts--it Would be Ignoring Better Data (Publication Centre)

Korea watchers appear to be hanging on Governor Lee Ju-yeol's every word, searching for any sign that he'll drop his hawkish pursuit of more sustainable household debt levels and prioritise short-term growth concerns.

14 June. 2016 May Sales Will Be Less Impressive than April's but Good Enough (Publication Centre)

April's impressive-looking retail sales numbers--the headline jumped 1.3%, with non-auto sales up 0.8%--were boosted by two entirely separate factors, one of which will play no p art in May and one which will offer very modest support. The key lift in April came from the very early Easter, which confounded the seasonal adjustments, as it usually does.

18 August 2017 Higher Core Inflation in the Eurozone Should be a No Brainer (Publication Centre)

Inflation data are known to defy economists' forecasts, but it should in principle b e straightforward to predict the cyclical path of EZ core inflation. It is the longest lagging indicator in the economy, and leading indicators currently signal that core inflation pressures are rising.

18 December 2017 Has Plunging Healthcare Inflation Held Down Nominal Wage Gains? (Publication Centre)

The shortfall in nominal wage growth, relative to measures of labor market tightness, remains the single biggest mystery of this business cycle.

17 November. 2016 Will Europe Have to Increase Spending on Defence Soon? (Publication Centre)

The winds of global politics are changing, and the major Eurozone countries could be forced to take heed. Donald Trump's foreign policy position remains highly uncertain. Our Chief Economist, Ian Shepherdson, expects the U.S. to increase defence spending next year; see the U.S. Monitor of October 20.

17 Nov. 2015 Does the Underperformance of the FTSE Portend a Weaker Economy? (Publication Centre)

The FTSE 100 has fallen by 4% over the last two weeks, exceeding the 1-to-3% declines in the main US, European and Japanese markets. The FTSE's latest drop builds on an underperformance which began in early 2014. The index has fallen by 10% since then--compared to rises of between 10% and 20% in the main overseas benchmarks--and has dropped by nearly 15% since its April 2015 peak. We doubt, however, that the collapse in U.K. equity prices signals impending economic misery. The economy is likely to struggle next year, but this will have little to do with the stock market's travails.

17 May 2019 Brazil's Economy Faltered in Q1 a Flimsy Upturn is in Prospect (Publication Centre)

Economic data released on Wednesday underscored that Brazil was struggling at the end of the first quarter, strengthening our case that Q1 GDP fell 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, the first contraction since Q4 2016.

18 July 2018 Peru's Economy Rebounded in the First Half Will the Strength Continue (Publication Centre)

Data released over the weekend confirm that the Peruvian economy enjoyed a strong second quarter. The economic activity index rose 6.4% year-over-year in May, well above market expectations, and up from 3.2% in Q1.

18 July. 2016 Chile and Peru Hold Interest Rates, Hikes Will Come but not Until 2017 (Publication Centre)

Central banks in Chile and Peru kept their reference rates unchanged last week, as expected, as inflation pressures in both countries are starting to ease. But different economic outlooks are emerging. Chile's economy continues to disappoint, while Peru's is picking up. Indeed, Peru is the only country in the region with clear positive momentum.

19 Aug 2019 Resistance is Futile in the EZ Fixed Income Bull Market... For Now (Publication Centre)

The ECB's communication to markets has been clear this year. In Q1, the central bank changed its stance on the economy towards an emphasis on "downside risks to the outlook".

19 August. 2015 Colombia's Domestic Economy is Resilient, But Real Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

The Colombian economy has been able to grow this year despite the plunge in oil prices since the middle of 2014. Gains in consumers' spending and investment have offset part of the hit from falling exports. But private spending growth, nonetheless, slowed considerably during the first few months of the year, as shown in our char t below, in part due to rising prices for imported goods after the depreciation of the COP, as well as broad-based concerns over the state of the economy.

18 September 2018 Andean Economies Started Q3 Strongly, Can this Trend Continue (Publication Centre)

Colombia's economy remained resilient in July, thanks to strong domestic demand and relatively good external conditions for the country's top exports.

18 Nov. 2015 Hawks Want to Hike, but What do They Expect From Higher Rates? (Publication Centre)

At the October FOMC meeting, policymakers softened their view on the threat posed by the summer's market turmoil and the slowdown in China, dropping September's stark warning that "Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term." Instead, the October statement merely said that the committee is "monitoring global economic and financial developments."

18 June 2018 When is a BoJ Dove not a Dove? When the Experiment has Failed (Publication Centre)

Governor Kuroda has sounded increasingly dovish recently.

17 March 2017 Colombia's Economy is Slowing Rapidly, BanRep to Cut Further (Publication Centre)

The Fed's insistence this week that U.S. rates will rise only twice more this year helped to ease pressures on LatAm markets this week, particularly FX. The way is now clear for some LatAm central banks to cut interest rates rapidly over the coming months, even before U.S. fiscal and trade policy becomes clear. We expect the next Fed rate hike to come in June, as the labor market continues to tighten. If we're right, the free-risk window for LatAm rate cuts is relatively short.

17 July 2019 Net Trade will Decide the Fortunes of the EZ Economy Through 2021 (Publication Centre)

The outlook for growth in the EZ economy is currently both stable and relatively uncomplicated, at least based on the most widely-watched leading indicators.

15 Jan. 2016 Equity Price Drop Not Yet Big Enough to Darken Growth Outlook (Publication Centre)

The FTSE 100 fell further yesterday, briefly to levels not seen since November 2012, but its drop over recent months is not a convincing signal of impending economic disaster. The economic recovery is likely to slow further, but this will reflect the building fiscal squeeze and the sterling-related export hit much more than the wobble in market sentiment.

15 November 2017 Full-Year GDP Growth in the EZ Will be Close to 2.5% in 2017 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second batch of Q3 GDP data in the euro area provided further evidence of a strong and stable cyclical upturn in the economy.

15 August 2017 The German Economy Fired on All Cylinders in the First Half of 2017 (Publication Centre)

Today's advance Q2 GDP report in Germany will add evidence that the EZ economy performed strongly in the first half of 2017. We can be pretty sure that the headline will be robust. The German statistical office reports a confidential number to Eurostat for the first estimate of EZ GDP--two weeks ahead of today's data--which was a solid 0.6%.

14 November. 2016 Britain Will Not Lead the Way With Fiscal Stimulus (Publication Centre)

Expectations are running high that the Autumn Statement on November 23 will mark the beginning of a more active role for fiscal policy in stimulating the economy. The MPC's abandonment of its former easing bias earlier this month has put the stimulus ball firmly in the new Chancellor's court.

14 March 2019 Headroom Still Looks Big Enough to Abandon the 2020 Fiscal Squeeze (Publication Centre)

As expected, the Chancellor kept his powder dry in the Spring Statement, preferring instead to wait for the Budget in the autumn to deploy the funds technically available to him to support the economy.

16 July 2018 Mr. Duque Inherits a Colombian Economy Firing on all Cylinders (Publication Centre)

Last week's hard data in Colombia were upbeat, confirming that economic growth accelerated in the first half. Retail sales rose 5.9% year-over-year in May, overshooting consensus.

16 Nov. 2015 Ignore the Hysteria if Inflation Eased Further in October (Publication Centre)

October's consumer price figures, to be released tomorrow, look set to show CPI inflation easing to -0.2%, from -0.1%, below the no-change consensus and the lowest rate since March 1960. No doubt this will spark more hyperbolic headlines about the U.K.'s descent into pernicious deflation; ignore them. October's print will almost certainly represent the nadir and we think it will take only a year for CPI inflation to return to the MPC's 2% target.

17 January 2018 Peru's Economy Hit by Temporary Factors in Q4, Will 2018 be Better? (Publication Centre)

Monday's economic activity data from Peru signalled that the gradual recovery continues, despite November's undershoot, which was chiefly driven by temporary factors.

17 December 2018 The Grinch Has Taken Charge of Economic Data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy finished last week with a horrendous set of economic data.

16 September 2016 The MPC Remains Poised to Cut Rates in November (Publication Centre)

Without tying its hands, the MPC--which voted unanimously to keep interest rates at 0.25% and to continue with the £60B of gilt purchases and £10B of corporate bond purchases authorised last month--gave a strong indication yesterday that it still expects to cut Bank Rate in November.

16 November 2018 The EU's New Car Emissions Rules Cast a Long Shadow over the EZ (Publication Centre)

Economic data in the Eurozone auto sector remain under the influence of the aftershock from the EU's new emissions regulation--WLTP-- introduced in September.

26 July 2019 Mexico's Economy is Under Strain, But Falling Inflation is its Last Hope (Publication Centre)

We remain negative about the medium-term growth prospects of the Mexican economy.

26 June. 2015 Mexico's Economy Improves in April - Oil Distorts the Picture (Publication Centre)

The underlying state of the Mexican economy is still positive, despite recent signs of a modest slowdown. The IGAE economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--rose 2.1% year-over-year in April, a relatively solid pace, but down from 2.8% in March, and 2.6% in Q1.

7 Aug 2019 Will Tory Rebels Vote with the Opposition in a No-Confidence Vote? (Publication Centre)

According to Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, it is "almost inevitable" that Labour will table a no-confidence motion in the government next month, shortly after MPs return from the summer recess on September 3.

7 December 2017 Job Gains Easily Strong Enough to Push Unemployment Down Further (Publication Centre)

We were a bit disappointed by the November ADP employment report, though a 190K reading in the 102nd month of a cyclical expansion is hardly a disaster.

6 September. 2016 Chile's Economy Still Under Strain, but Recession Will be Avoided (Publication Centre)

Chile's economy remains under pressure, at least temporarily. After signs of recovery in Q1, activity deteriorated in Q2 and at the start of the third quarter. The sluggish global economy--especially China, Chile's main trading partner--is exacerbating the domestic slowdown, hit by low business and consumer confidence.

6 Oct. 2015 Will the Industrial Slowdown Drag Down the Rest of the Economy? (Publication Centre)

The elevated September ISM non-manufacturing index reported yesterday--it dipped to 56.9 but remains very high by historical standards--again served to underscore the depth of the bifurcation in the economy. The services sector, boosted by the collapse in gasoline prices and the strong dollar, is massively outperforming the woebegone manufacturing sector.

6 November 2018 Expect Little Change in Economic Policy After the Midterms (Publication Centre)

We read the same polls, newspapers, and political websites as everyone else, and we're not claiming any special insight into the outcome of the midterm elections today.

7 December 2017 Tory Eurosceptics Are Not an Invincible Barrier to a Soft Brexit (Publication Centre)

Brexit talks have hit an impasse over the Irish border. The Republic of Ireland will veto any deal that creates a hard border with Northern Ireland. This means that Northern Ireland must remain in the EU's customs union.

7 February 2018 The Economic Fallout from the Plunge in Equities will be Modest (Publication Centre)

As things stand, we see little reason to revise down our forecasts for the U.K. economy in response to the tailspin in equity markets

7 March 2018 Reading Between the Lines of Governor Kuroda's Confirmation (Publication Centre)

In his second confirmation hearing, Governor Kuroda continued his dance with markets, dialling down the exit talk.

7 March 2018 Will Snow Disruption Freeze the MPC in its Tracks? (Publication Centre)

Last week's heavy snowfall, which blighted the entire country, will depress GDP growth in Q1, making it harder for the MPC to read the economy.

7 March 2017 Can Italy's Economy Overcome Weak Real Wage Growth in 2017? (Publication Centre)

The Italian economy slowed at the end 2017, and it continues to underperform other major EZ economies. Real GDP rose 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, a bit slower than the 0.3% gain in Q3, pushing full-year growth up to a modest 1.0%. This compares poorly, though, with growth of 1.6% in the euro area as a whole.

7 June 2017 Sentiment Indicators Signal Better Times for the Mexican Economy (Publication Centre)

Mexico's survey data have improved significantly over the last few months, reaching levels last since before Donald Trump won the U.S. election in November. This suggest that the economy is in much better shape than feared earlier this year. Consumer confidence, for instance, has continued its recovery.

7 July 2017 Andean Economies Improving as First-Half Shocks Fade (Publication Centre)

The Imacec data released on Wednesday provided further evidence that the Chilean economy grew at a decent pace in the second quarter, following a very sluggish first quarter.

6 November 2018 Colombia's Inflation Pressures are Tame, but Upside Risks are Looming (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Colombia right now is under control but risks are increasing rapidly, and the outlook for next year has deteriorated significantly.

6 November 2017 Pressure is Building in Venezuela, the Default Clock is Ticking (Publication Centre)

Macroeconomic and financial conditions in Venezuela are deteriorating at an accelerating pace.

6 July. 2016 Economic Activity Remains Soft in the Andes, But Will Improve Ahead (Publication Centre)

Economic activity is slowing in Colombia. The ISE activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--rose only 0.6% year-over-year in April, down from 2.3% in March, and we expect it to rise at this pace over the coming months. During the first quarter, the index rose at an average year-over-year rate of 3.0%.

6 July. 2016 ISM Non-manufacturing Jobs Should Rebound, but How Far? (Publication Centre)

The shock of the weak May payroll report means that the June numbers this week will come under even greater scrutiny than usual. We are not optimistic that a substantial rebound is coming immediately. The headline number will be better than in May, because the 35K May drag from the Verizon strike will reverse.

6 July. 2015 Greece Votes No, and Takes a Step Closer to Exiting the Euro (Publication Centre)

The Greek polls released Sunday evening indicate a comfortable victory for "no," rejecting the latest EU proposal. This is not a good outcome for the market, and volatility will likely increase substantially today. The result--not confirmed as we go to press but very clearly indicated by the count so far--gives an air of legitimacy to Syriza's brinkmanship, but the creditors' reaction to a "no" vote, which they likely did not expect, is uncertain.

6 February 2019 The Chilean Economy Eased Off in Late Q4 2019 will be Better (Publication Centre)

Chile's Imacec index confirmed that economic growth ended the year on a soft note, due mainly to weakness in the mining sector.

6 December 2018 The PMIs are No Fun EZ Growth is Slowing, and Italy is in Recession (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final PMI data in the euro area for November broadly confirmed the initial estimates.

6 July. 2016 The EZ Economy is at the Mercy of Rising Political Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data point to a sea of calm in the Eurozone economy. The composite PMI was unchanged at 53.1 in June, a slight upward revision from the initial estimate, 52.8. The index suggests real GDP growth was stable at 1.5%-to-1.6% year-overyear in Q2, though the quarter-on-quarter rate likely slowed markedly, following the jump in Q1.

6 June 2017 Andes Economies to Recover in H2, Thanks to Loose Monetary Policy (Publication Centre)

Recent data have confirmed that growth in the Andean economies--Colombia, Chile and Peru--faced downward pressure in Q1, but some leading indicators and recent hard data suggest that we should expect better news ahead.

6 May. 2016 Chile's Economy Picks Up in Q1, but no Sustained Acceleration (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in Chile picked up in Q1, but the recovery remains disappointingly weak, due to both global and domestic headwinds. The latest Imacec index, a proxy for GDP, rose just 2.1% year-over-year in March, slowing from a 2.8% gain in February. Assuming no revisions next month, economic activity rose 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, better than the 0.9% increase in Q4. These data points to a modest pick-up in GDP growth in Q1, to 1.8% year-over-year, from 1.3% in Q4.

6 Nov. 2015 Payroll Uncertainty (Even) Greater than Usual in October (Publication Centre)

Any model of payrolls based on the usual indicators--jobless claims, ISM hiring, NFIB hiring, and other sundry surveys--right now points to payroll growth at 250K or better. Indeed, the ISM non-manufacturing report on Wednesday is consistent with payroll growth closer to 400K, and the lagged NFIB hiring intentions number points to 300K. Yet the consensus forecast for today's October report is just 182K. Why so timid?

6 March 2019 ISM Non-manufacturing Rebound is Welcome Further Gains Unlikely (Publication Centre)

The rebound in the ISM non-manufacturing index in February was in line with our forecast, but behind the strong headline, the employment index dropped to an eight-month low.

6 March 2018 Andean Economies are Improving, but Protectionist Threats Are a Risk (Publication Centre)

Chile's IMACEC economic activity index rose 3.9% year-over-year in January, up from 2.6% in December, and 2.9% on average in Q4, thanks to strong mining output growth and solid commercial, manufacturing and services activity.

6 June 2017 ISM Non-manufacturing Jobs Up Sharply. Summer Payrolls to Surge? (Publication Centre)

The 6.4-point rebound in the May ISM non-manufacturing employment index, to a very high 57.8, supports our view that summer payroll growth will be strong. On the face of it, the survey is consistent with job gains in excess of 300K, as our first chart shows, but that's very unlikely to happen.

7 November. 2016 EZ Growth is Stable, but Inflation is Rising (Publication Centre)

The two major EZ economic reports released while we were away conformed to the consensus. Advance data suggest that real GDP in the euro area rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, the same pace as in Q2, and the year-over-year rate was similarly unchanged at 1.6%.

8 April 2019 Andean Economies Hoping for a U.S.-China Trade Deal Soon (Publication Centre)

Fears of a Chinese hard landing have roiled financial and commodity markets this past year and have constrained the economic recovery of major raw material exporters in LatAm.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not much to cheer about; the trend is still falling.

LatAm Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rate cuts are looming as the economy loses momentum.

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Dovish, but slight doubts now linger over the reaction function.

9 October 2017 Britain's Productivity Problem can no Longer Hide Below the Surface (Publication Centre)

Britain's productivity problem has been building under the surface for years, but it is set to be more pertinent now that the economy is close to full employment.

9 November 2018 Stockbuilding Won't Temper the Near-Term Slowdown (Publication Centre)

A flawed theory still is circulating that the economy might outperform over the next two quarters because firms will stockpile goods due to the risk of a no-deal Brexit.

LatAm Datanote: BCCh Rate Decision, Chile (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rates on hold as the economy falters.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rates on hold; trade tensions are a key risk to start policy normalization.

LatAm Datanote: Gross fixed investment, Mexico, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another ugly report, and Mexico's prospects have deteriorated significantly.

LatAm Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil (Publication Centre)

In one line: The cautious approach continues as the economy struggles and uncertainty remains high

LatAm Datanote: Economic Activity Index, Brazil, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: The economy did very badly in Q1, and risks are still tilted to the downside.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index and Bi-weekly CPI, Mexico, April, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Modest inflation pressures amid subpar economic activity.

LatAm Datanote: CPI, Mexico, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation pressures are finally easing, but the MXN--that is, President Trump's actions--is the key variable now for policymakers.

9 November 2017 Higher Oil Prices: Another Headwind for the Economy (Publication Centre)

The recent surge in the oil price has added to the headwinds set to batter the economy over the next year. The price of Brent crude has jumped by $10 since September to $64, its highest level since June 2015.

9 Nov. 2015 Investors Should Brace for a Poor German Q3 GDP Report (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production data capped another dreadful week for German manufacturing. Output fell 1.1% month-to-month in September, pushing the year-over-year rate lower to 0.2%, from a revised 2.9% in August. The 0.6% upward revision of the previous month's data makes the data slightly less awful than the headline, but the details showed weakness across all core sectors. The underlying trend in production is stable at about 1.2% year-over-year, but downbeat new orders suggest it will weaken in the fourth quarter.

8 March 2018 The Spring Statement Really Will Be a Non-Event (Publication Centre)

The Treasury has tried to dampen expectations for Tuesday's Spring Statement, which has replaced the Autumn Statement since the Budget was moved last year to November.

8 May 2019 Chile's Economy Slowed in Q1, but Expect a Modest Q2 Rebound (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in Chile slowed in Q1, despite a relatively strong end to the quarter, and the chances of an accelerating recovery remains disappointingly low, due to both global and domestic headwinds.

8 January 2019 Colombia's Economic Resilience Will be Challenged in the First Half (Publication Centre)

Colombia was one of the fastest growing economies in LatAm in 2018, and prospects for this year have improved significantly following June's presidential election, with the market-friendly candidate, Iván Duque, winning.

8 August 2017 Will Mexico's Economy Resilience Continue in the Second Half? (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy maintained its relatively strong momentum in Q2. The first estimate of Q2 GDP, released last week, confirmed that growth was resilient during the first half of this year, despite the confidence hit caused by domestic and external headwinds.

8 Aug 2019 June GDP to Reassure that the Economy is Avoiding Recession (Publication Centre)

Friday's GDP report should show that the economy narrowly avoided contracting in Q2.

8 November 2017 Mexico's Leading Indicators Remain Strong Despite Mixed Hard Data (Publication Centre)

Recent economic indicators in Mexico have been mixed, distorted by temporary factors, including the effect of the natural disasters in late Q3. Private consumption has lost some momentum, hit by the lagged effect of high interest rates and inflation, as well as the earthquakes.

9 August. 2016 Further Evidence of Divergence in the Andean Economies (Publication Centre)

Colombia's economy has continued to slow, due mainly to lagged effect of the oil price shock since mid-2014, and stubbornly high inflation, which has triggered painful monetary tightening. Modest fiscal expansion and capital inflows have helped to avoid a hard landing, but the economy is still feeling the pain of weakening domestic demand. And the twin deficits--though improving--remain a threat.

9 May 2018 Improving Economies in the Andes, Inflation is Well Under Control (Publication Centre)

March economic activity in Chile expanded by a solid 4.6% year-over-year, pointing to Q1 real GDP growth of 4.0%, the fastest pace since Q3 2013, up from 3.3% in Q4.

9 July 2019 The German Economy Hit a Brick Wall in the Second Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's headline economic data in Germany were decent enough. Industrial output edged higher by 0.3% month-to-month in May, lifted primarily by rising production of capital and consumer goods.

9 July 2019 It Won't Be Just "One and Done" for the MPC, in the Event of No-Deal (Publication Centre)

The sharp fall in markets' expectations for Bank Rate over the last month has partly reflected the perceived increase in the chance of a no-deal Brexit. Betting markets are pricing-in around a 30% chance of a no-deal departure before the end of this year, up from 10% shortly after the first Brexit deadline was missed.

9 January 2017 The Eurozone Economy Likely Finished 2016 With a Bang (Publication Centre)

The slew of EZ economic data on Friday supports our view that the economy ended 2016. The Commission's economic sentiment index jumped to 107.8 in December from a revised 106.6 in November. The headline strength was due to a big increase in "business climate indicator" and higher consumer sentiment. In individual countries, solid numbers for German construction and French services sentiment were the stand-out details.

6 December 2018 No Real Signs of the Slowdown Story in the Labor Market Data (Publication Centre)

Behind all the talk of slowdowns and Fed pauses, we see no sign that the labor market is loosening beyond a very modest uptick in jobless claims, and even that looks suspicious.

6 Aug 2019 The PMIs Are Consistent With a Fragile--Not Flatlining--Economy (Publication Centre)

The rise in the Markit/CIPS services PMI to a nine-month high of 51.4 in July, from 50.2 in June, isn't a game-changer, though it does provide some reassurance that the economy isn't on a downward spiral.

3 May 2019 The MPC Signals that Rate Hikes are Coming, Though Not Just Yet (Publication Centre)

The MPC restated its commitment to an "ongoing tightening of monetary policy" yesterday, but provided no new guidance to suggest that the next hike is imminent.

3 May. 2016 BanRep Opts For Bold Rate Hike - Inflation a Priority, For Now (Publication Centre)

Policymakers in Colombia last Friday took aim at inflation by hiking interest rates by 50 basis points to 7.0%. The consensus expectation was for a 25bp increase. BanRep's bold move, which came on the heels of six consecutive 25bp increases since November, took Colombia's main interest rate to its highest level since March 2009.

3 June 2019 The Trade War Deepens, Mexico's Economy is Under Heavy Fire (Publication Centre)

President Trump's volatile diplomatic style is one of the biggest risks facing the Mexican economy in the near term, as we have discussed in previous Monitors.

3 July 2017 Will the Argentinian Economy be Oblivious to Political Risks? (Publication Centre)

Argentina's economic data released last week confirm that the economy is improving. Our core view, for now, is that the economy will continue to defy rising political uncertainty, both domestic and external.

3 January 2019 No Respite for Eurozone Manufacturing at the end of 2018 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report in the Eurozone confirmed that the economy slowed further at the end of 2018.

3 September 2018 Brazil's Economy was Resilient in Q2, but the Recovery is Sluggish (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian economy enjoyed a decent Q2, with GDP rising 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, despite the disruptions caused by the truck drivers' strike, after a 0.1% decline in Q1.

30 January 2019 Colombia's Economic Growth Prospects will Improve Soon (Publication Centre)

Recently released data in Colombia signal that the economy ended last year quite strongly.

30 October 2018 Airline Fares Lifted September's Core PCE Deflator Noise not Signal (Publication Centre)

The modest overshoot to consensus in September's core PCE deflator won't trouble any lists of great economic surprises, but it did serve to demonstrate that the PCE can diverge from the CPI, in both the short and medium-term.

30 October 2018 Policymakers in Chile and Colombia Opting for Divergent Paths, For Now (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures remain under control in most LatAm economies, allowing central banks to keep interest rates on hold, despite the challenging external environment.

30 November 2018 Fraying Confidence and Slowing Money Growth Point to a Weak Q4 (Publication Centre)

Further political wrangling yesterday distracted from data showing that the risk of no -deal Brexit is placing increasing strain on the economy.

30 Nov. 2015 South American Central Banks Still Worrying About Inflation (Publication Centre)

Colombia's peso has been one of the most battered currencies in LatAm this year, due mainly to the sharp fall in oil prices, the country's primary export. The COP has dropped about 23% this year against the USD. At the same time, other temporary factors, most notably the impact of El Niño on food prices, have done a great deal of inflation damage too. October's food prices increased 1.4% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 8.8% from an average of 6.6% in the first half of the year. Overall inflation has jumped to 5.9% in October from 3.8% in January, forcing BanRep's board to act aggressively.

30 May 2018 Argentina's Economy had a Solid Q1, but the Pain is Starting to Show (Publication Centre)

Hard data released in Argentina over recent weeks showed that the economy was resilient in Q1 and early Q2.

3 January 2018 See no Evil, Hear no Evil in Eurozone Manufacturing? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone manufacturing sector finished 2017 on a strong note. The headline PMI increased to a cyclical high of 60.6 in December, from 60.1 in November, in line with the initial estimate.

29 Oct. 2015 All Fed Eyes Now on the October, November Employment Reports (Publication Centre)

The Fed yesterday toned down its warnings on the potential impact on the U.S. of "global economic and financial developments", and upgraded its view on the domestic economy, pointing out that consumption and fixed investment "have been increasing at solid rates in recent months". In September, they were merely growing "moderately". Policymakers are still "monitoring" global and market developments, but the urgency and fear of September has gone. The statement acknowledged the slower payroll gains of recent months--without offering an explanation--but pointed out, as usual, that "underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year" and that it will be appropriate to begin raising rates "some further improvement in the labor market".

27 November 2018 What's the Risk of a Technical Recession in Germany (Publication Centre)

Last week's detailed Q3 GDP data in Germany verified that GDP fell 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, down from a 0.5% rise in Q2, a number which all but confirms the key story for the economy over the year as a whole.

28 June. 2016 The Case for Stronger U.S. Economic Growth is Still Robust (Publication Centre)

Difficult though it is to tear ourselves away from Britain's political and economic train-wreck, morbid fascination is no substitute for economic analysis. The key point here is that our case for stronger growth in the U.S. over the next year is not much changed by events in Europe.

27 November 2018 In the Shale New World, Lower Oil Prices Mean Slower U.S. Growth (Publication Centre)

The last time oil prices fell sharply, from mid-2014, when WTI peaked at $107, through early 2016, when the price reached just $26, the U.S. economy slowed dramatically.

27 July 2017 Greece is Back in the Market, but the Timing is Not the Best (Publication Centre)

The strengthening EZ economy increasingly looks like the tide that lifts all boats. The Greek economy is still a laggard, but recent news hints at a brightening outlook. Last week, S&P affirmed the country's debt rating, but revised the outlook to "positive" from "stable."

26 November 2018 Mexico's Economy Had a Good 2018 Will it Pivot to an Ugly 2019 (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economic picture remains positive, although the outlook for 2019 is growing cloudy as the economy likely will lose momentum if AMLO's populist approach continues next year.

28 November 2017 Political Uncertainty to Continue in Mexico Despite a Brief Pause (Publication Centre)

Mexico's political panorama seems to be becoming clearer, at least temporarily. This should dispel some of the uncertainty that has been hanging over the economy in recent months.

28 November 2018 Argentina's Near-term Outlook is Murky, But 2019 Will be Better (Publication Centre)

Argentina's near-term economic outlook remains murky, as recent data has highlighted, hit by tighter financial conditions.

29 November 2017 Signs Mount that the BoJ is Concerned About the Curve (Publication Centre)

BoJ Governor Kuroda has piqued interest with his recent comments on the "reversal rate", the rate at which easy monetary policy becomes counterproductive, due to the negative impact on financial intermediation.

29 November 2018 The Bank's Brexit Deal Scenarios are Consistent with a May Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

Predictably, the Bank of England's estimate that GDP would plunge by 8% in the first year after a disorderly no-deal, no transition Brexit and that interest rates would need to rise to 5.5% to contain inflation grabbed the headlines yesterday.

29 January 2018 The Dollar is not yet an Inflation Threat, but it Likely Hasn't Bottomed (Publication Centre)

We learned last week that the U.S. no longer has a coherent dollar policy.

29 August 2018 Focus on Slowing Real M1, not the Upbeat Loan Data, in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In recent Monitors--see here and here--we have made a case for decent growth in the EZ's largest economies in the second half of the year, though we remain confident that full-year growth will be a good deal slower, about 2.0%, than the 2.5% in 2017.

29 April 2019 Mexico's Economy is Stabilizing, Despite Stifling Monetary Policy (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Mexico remains relatively sticky, limiting Banxico's capacity to adopt a more dovish approach, despite the subpar economic recovery.

31 August. 2015 Brazil's Recession, Worse Than Feared And No Respite In Sight (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession has deepened. Overall, the economy has sunk into its worst slump in six years, and the recovery will be painful and slow. This is not surprising, but the sharper than expected 3% contraction over the first half of the year may have thrown a further bucket of cold water on President Rousseff, whose popularity ratings have fallen to a level not seen since 1992, when President Collor de Mello was forced out of office after being impeached for corruption. Real GDP in Brazil fell 1.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, much worse than the downwardly revised 0.7% contraction in Q1.

31 March 2017 The Economic Outlook is Improving in Brazil, and even in Mexico (Publication Centre)

Downside risks to our growth forecast for Brazil and Mexico for this year have diminished this week. In Brazil, concerns over the potential impact of the meat scandal on the economy have diminished. Some key global customers, including Hong Kong, have in recent days eased restrictions on imports from Brazil, and other counties have ended their bans.

5 December 2017 Japan: QQE is Dead, Long Live YCC... For Now (Publication Centre)

Japan's monetary base growth has continued to slow, to 13.2% year-over-year in November from 14.5% in October.

5 July 2019 Trade Truce 2.0 Means that the BoK will Happily Ignore June's Weak Data (Publication Centre)

Korea's economic data for June largely were poor, and are likely to make more BoK board members anxious ,ahead of their meeting on July 18.

5 December 2017 ISM Non-manufacturing Set for Clear Correction. Don't Worry (Publication Centre)

Last week's strong ISM manufacturing survey for November likely will be followed by robust data for the non-manufacturing sector today, but the headline index, like its industrial counterpart, likely will dip a bit.

4 September 2017 Will the Economy be Hit by a Snap Back in Households' Saving Ratio? (Publication Centre)

Households' decision to reduce their saving rate sharply was the main reason why economic growth exceeded forecasters' expectations in the aftermath of the Brexit vote.

4 November. 2016 Inflation Concerns Now Dominate on the MPC (Publication Centre)

The MPC surprised markets and ourselves yesterday by the extent to which it abandoned its previous stance and is now emphasising inflation over growth risks.

5 July 2019 Sterling has no Parachute in the Event of a No-deal Brexit (Publication Centre)

Just how low would sterling go in the event of a no-deal Brexit? When Reuters last surveyed economists at the start of June, the consensus was that sterling would settle between $1.15 and $1.20 and fall to parity against the euro within one month after an acrimonious separation on October 31.

5 June 2018 ISM Non-manufacturing Set to Rebound, Watch Employment (Publication Centre)

The headline May ISM non-manufacturing index today likely will mirror, at least in part, the increase in the manufacturing survey, reported Friday.

5 September 2017 BanRep's Hawks want Proof the Coming In ation Jump is Noise (Publication Centre)

Colombia's Central Bank is about to face a short-term dilemma. The recent fall in inflation will be interrupted while economic growth, particularly private spending, will struggle to build momentum over the second half.

6 April 2017 ADP Likely Overstates Payrolls, ISM Non-manufacturing Understates (Publication Centre)

We don't directly plug the ADP employment data into our model for the official payroll number. ADP's estimate is derived itself from a model which incorporates lagged official payroll data, because payrolls tend to mean-revert, as well as macroeconomic variables including oil prices, industrial production and jobless claims -- and actual employment data from firms which use ADP's payroll processing services.

5 Oct. 2015 Less Bad Than Expected Data in Brazil, But the Crisis is Not Over (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic and fiscal outlook has worsened in recent months, and economic activity will likely contract even further in the short-term. Some of last week's economic reports, however, were a bit less bad than of late. The latest industrial production data were less bad than expected in August, but the picture is still very grim. Industrial output plunged 1.2% month-to-month, above the consensus, and allowing the annual rate to stabilize at -9% year-over-year.

5 Nov. 2015 Yellen Signals December Action, Data Permitting (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen yesterday reinforced the impression that the bar to Fed action in December, in terms of the next couple of employment reports, is now quite low: "If we were to move, say in December, it would be based on an expectation, which I believe is justified, [our italics] that with an improving labor market and transitory factors fading, that inflation will move up to 2%." The economy is now "performing well... Domestic spending has been growing at a solid pace" making a December hike a "live possibility." New York Fed president Bill Dudley, speaking later, said he "fully" agrees with Dr. Yellen's position, but "let's see what the data show."

5 May. 2016 ISM Non-manufacturing Jobs Up, But are Prior Declines a Threat? (Publication Centre)

Markets and the commentariat seemed not to like the April ADP employment report yesterday but we are completely indifferent. We set out in detail in yesterday's Monitor the case for expecting a below consensus ADP reading--in short, the model used to generate the number includes lagging official data, some of which were hugely depressed by the early Easter--so it does not change our 200K forecast for tomorrow's official number.

4 Nov. 2015 Mexico's Economy Solid in Q3 - Soft Manufacturing No Threat Yet (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy had a decent start to the second half of the year, thanks to resilient domestic demand, amid signs of recovery in industrial activity. GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, a bit faster than in Q2, lifting the year-over-year rate to 2.4% from 2.2% in Q2. This is the first time the statistics office, INEGI, published an advance reading on GDP, reducing the time between the end of the quarter to the report date to 30 days from 52.

4 Nov. 2015 ADP Tells Us Payrolls Mean- Revert, but That's Not News (Publication Centre)

The underlying trend in payroll growth ought to be running at 250K-plus, based on an array of indicators of the pace of both hiring and firing. The past few months' numbers have fallen far short of this pace, though, for reasons which are not yet clear. We are inclined to blame a shortage of suitably qualified staff, not least because that appears to be the message from the NFIB survey, which shows that the proportion of small businesses with unfilled positions is now close to the highs seen in previous cycles. If we're right, payroll growth won't return to the 254K average recorded in 2014 until the next cyclical upturn, but quite what to expect instead is anyone's guess.

4 April 2019 More Evidence of a Relatively Resilient Domestic EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports added to the evidence the euro area economy as a whole is showing signs of resilience in the face of still-terrible conditions in manufacturing.

4 April 2019 The Economy is Struggling, but not to the Extent Implied by the PMIs (Publication Centre)

All the main surveys of business activity in Q1 now have been released and they present a uniformly downbeat picture.

4 April 2018 More soft economic data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Economic data in the Eurozone continue to come in soft. Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs confirmed that the euro area index slipped to an eight-month low of 56.6 in March, from 58.6 in February.

31 October 2017 The Mexican Economy Remained Resilient in Q3, Despite Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Today's advance Q3 GDP report for Mexico will show that the economy performed relatively well at the start of the second half, despite external and domestic shocks.

31 May 2017 Argentina's Economic Recovery Continues, but Brazil's is at Risk (Publication Centre)

The outlook for Argentina is improving. We expect economic growth to remain quite strong over the next year, despite a relatively soft start to 2017 and increasing external threats in recent weeks. The INDEC index of economic activity--a monthly proxy for GDP--is volatile, rising 1.9% month-to-month in March after a 2.6% drop in February, but the underlying trend is improving.

4 Dec. 2015 November Labor Data Will Support Yellen's Case for Hiking (Publication Centre)

We're expecting to see November payrolls up by about 200K this morning, but our forecast takes into account the likelihood that the initial reading will be revised up. In the five years through 2014, the first estimate of November payrolls was revised up by an average of 73K by the time o f the third estimate. Our forecast for today, therefore, is consistent with our view that the underlying trend in payrolls is 250K-plus. That's the message of the very low level of jobless claims, and the strength of all surveys of hiring, with the exception of the depressed ISM manufacturing employment index. Manufacturing accounts for only 9% of payrolls, though, so this just doesn't matter.

4 January 2019 Mexican Economic Growth Will Continue, but at a Very Modest Pace (Publication Centre)

The economic calendar in Mexico was relatively quiet over Christmas, and broadly conformed to our expectations of resilient economic activity in Q4.

4 May 2018 A Solid Start to the Year for Chile's Economy, Will the Trend Continue? (Publication Centre)

This week's March economic activity reports in Chile have been relatively strong, with the industrial sector expanding briskly and retail sales solid.

4 March 2019 Is the Slowdown in Money Growth an Ominous Sign (Publication Centre)

January's money supply figures continued the nerve-jangling flow of data on the economy's momentum.

4 June 2019 More Negative News for the Andes Economies, due to Trade Tensions (Publication Centre)

Economic prospects in the Andes have deteriorated significantly in recent weeks, due mainly to the escalation of the trade war.

4 July 2019 We Know the Names of the EU's New Top Brass, and That's About it (Publication Centre)

Europe's political leaders finally made a breakthrough this week in nominating candidates for the top jobs in the EU.

10 January 2017 Production Likely Surged in November, but Trend Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

The consensus expectation that industrial production rose by 1.0% month-to-month in November is far too low; we expect Wednesday's data to show a jump of 2.0% or so. The rebound, however, should not be interpreted as another sign that the economy has been revitalised by the Brexit vote. Instead, we expect the rise chiefly to reflect volatility in oil production and heating energy supply.

5 November 2018 China's Role in Global Rates over the Next 10 Years (Publication Centre)

In recent months we've been thinking more deeply about the themes for the next economic cycle for China, and its impact on the world.

*April 2019 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Bifurcated Eurozone Economy: Manufacturing Is Terrible, But Services Look Decent

*August 2017 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The EZ economy finally stretches its legs...but it won't sustain Q1 and Q2 momentum for long

1 December 2017 Relapse in Confidence Signals the Economy is Only Muddling Through (Publication Centre)

Economy-wide confidence deteriorated in November, highlighting that Britain continues to struggle to shake off its malaise.

*Oct. 2016 - Eurozone. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Political certainty is at a premium in the EZ......But Economic data remain resilient

*June 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The economy is struggling to rebound in Q2...an August rate hike is far from a done deal

06 Jan. 2016 ADP Likely to Report Slower December Job Gains - Ignore it (Publication Centre)

None of today's four monthly economic reports will tell us much new about the outlook, and one of them--ADP employment--will tell us more about the past, but that won't stop markets obsessing over it. We have set out the problems with the ADP number in numerous previous Monitors, but, briefly, the key point is that it is generated from regression models which are heavily influenced by the previous month's official payroll numbers and other lagging data like industrial production, personal incomes, retail and trade sales, and even GDP growth. It is not based solely on the employment data taken from companies which use ADP for payroll processing, and it tends to lag the official numbers.

03 Mar. 2016 ISM Non-manufacturing Set to Rebound, Lagging Core Sales (Publication Centre)

The headline ISM non-manufacturing index is not, in our view, a leading indicator of anything much. The survey covers a broad array of non manufacturing activity, including mining, healthcare, and financial services, but most of the time it tends to follow the track of real core retail sales, as our first chart shows.

*June 2019 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi will end his ECB tenure with a rate cut...but the economy probably doesn't need one

*November 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Reviving Capex and Fiscal Policy to Lift Growth...Provided Parliament Averts a No-Deal Brexit

*August 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Fed tightening is deferred, not cancelled...Expected a December hike after robust fall data

06 Jan. 2016 The Services PMI isn't the Final Word on the Economy's Health (Publication Centre)

Unanticipated movements in the Markit/CIPS services PMI often provoke big market reactions, despite its shortcomings as an indicator of the pace of growth. We suspect December's PMI, released today, could surprise to the downside, reversing most of its rise in November to 55.9 from 54.9 in October. Regardless, we place more weight on the official data, which is more comprehensive and shows clearly the recovery is slowing.

*December 2018 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Has Christmas been Cancelled in the EZ Economy?...Both Survey and Hard Data Point to Another Soft Quarter in Q4

*December 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brexit Risk Increasingly is Hitting the Economy...But Above-Trend Growth Awaits After a Deal is Done

*Feb 2017 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The EZ Economy is in a good Cyclical Shape.. But Can It Shrug off Political Changes in 2017?

*Feb 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Consumer slowdown is under way...Policymakers will not provide more stimulus

*Dec. 2016 - Eurozone Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The EZ economy will finish 2016 strongly...but political risks continue to simmer

*June 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Real wage falls are slowing the economy...Fears of rate hikes this year are overblown

*August 2018 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The EZ economic data have stabilised...But what about tail-risks?

*August 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The fed will keep hiking each quarter...they are chasing unemployment, not inflation

*June 2018 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A dovish tightening of Monetary Policy...QE will end this year, nut no rate hike in H1 2019

1 May 2019 New BoE Governor Unlikely to Mark Regime Shift in Monetary Policy (Publication Centre)

The government last week fired the starting gun for the contest to replace Mark Carney as Governor of the Bank of England.

*October 2017 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy is in rare good form...So what should investors worry about?

*May 2017 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone optimists are out in numbers...But don't expect economic miracles just yet

*May 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

No end to the brexit paralysis in sight...but growth will remain strong enough for rate hikes

*Nov. 2016 - Eurozone Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The EZ Economy entered Q4 on a solid footing...But the Political Uncertainty Looms

*September 2018 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Fog of Political and External Risks in the EZ...and Recent Economic Data Have Been Soft Too

*June 2017 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone Economy Is In Fine Form.. But Don't Believe Everything the ECB is Telling You

*September 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The MPC is Back in "Wait and See" Mode...But Two Hikes Likely in 2019, Provided No-Deal Avoided

*May 2018 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy is slowing...will the ECB care?

1 November. 2016 The Recovery in Mexico is Solid, Hampered By Weak Mining (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy grew 1.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, the fastest pace since 2014, following a 0.2% contraction in Q2, according to the preliminary report published yesterday.

08 Jan. 2016 Colombia's Economic Resilience Will be Challenged - Oil Is Still Key (Publication Centre)

Colombia was likely the fastest growing economy in LatAm in 2015, but it is set to slow this year as monetary and fiscal policy are tightened, and commodity prices remain under pressure during the first half of the year, at least. Economic activity was surprisingly resilient during 2015, especially during the second half, despite the COP's sell-off, high inflation, and subdued consumer confidence.

*March 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

"Cross-Currents" Will Keep the Fed Safe For Now....But The Headwinds Already Are Starting To Ease

1 November 2017 Will the PMIs Show the Economy Resilient to the Looming Rate Hike? (Publication Centre)

This week's manufacturing, construction and services PMIs for October will demonstrate how well the economy is coping with the prospect of higher interest rates.

*September 2017 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The EZ Economy has rarely been in better from...but external risks and policy uncertainty loom.

*March 2017 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Fed Is On Course For Four Hikes This Year...And Another Four In 2018

*June 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A no-deal brexit remains an unlikely outcome...An October extension will prodive a rate hike window

1 May 2019 The Eurozone Economy Defied the Pessimists in the First Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic headlines in the Eurozone were pleasant reading.

*March 2018 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone Economy is doing fine...but recent soft data provide a much needed reality check

*March 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Powell is a growth bull, not an inflation hawk...Interest rate risk is greater for 2019 than 2018

*March 2019 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Glimmers of Hope in the EZ Macro Data...But the Economy is not out of the Woods Yet

*November 2018 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Slowing EZ Economy and Treacherous Markets...Neither Probably Will Stop the ECB From Ending QE Next Month

*September 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Fed is Not Nearly Done...Real Rates are Still Far Too Low; No Slowdown in Sight

*February 2018 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The EZ economy enters 2018 in fine form...but markets are beginning to look tricky

*June 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

"Gradual" normalization continues, for now...No fourth dot until September

*July 2017 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy is in fine form...but this is likely as good as it gets

*January 2019 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The R-Word is Once Again Being Spoken in the EZ...But it Probably Won't be that Bad, at Least not in H1

*January 2018 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Strong and stable growth in the Eurozone...but now comes the increase in yields and inflation

*Jan 2017 - Eurozone Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The EZ economy powered ahead in 2016...and is so far oblivious to political risks

*February 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A No-Deal Brexit Remains an Unlikely Outcome...Growth will Recover in H2, Facilitating Rate Hike

*July 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Fed plans to keep on hiking...falling unemployment is the key, not the softer CPI

*February 2019 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Poor Q4 In The EZ, But Not Uniformly Horrible...All Eyes Are Now On The Q1 Numbers For Signs Of A Rebound

*February 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The MPC is mulling hiking rates again soon...but activity and inflation data imply no need to rush

*July 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Households' Spending Will Retain Momentum in H2...Another Brexit Extension Remains Likely in October

02 Mar. 2016 Chile Started the Year on a Soft Note - Mining Still the Main Drag (Publication Centre)

Chile's weak indicators in January confirm that the economy is struggling. Mining output plunged 12.6% year-over-year, down from a modest 0.6% contraction during Q4, due mostly to falling copper production and an unfavourable base effect. This will reverse in February but we still look for a 5% drop.

*July 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

No further easing needed, if a trade deal is done...but this is a dovish fed, on a hair-trigger

CNBC - Bull markets die because the Fed kills them, says economist (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist, discusses his outlook on the U.S. economy and the long-lasting bull market.

BUSINESS INSIDER - The US trade deficit tumbled to a 5-month low in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the U.S. Trade Deficit

BBC NEWS - UK employment hits another record high (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest employment figures

BBC NEWS - German economy narrowly avoids recession (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Germany's economy

BBC NEWS - US economic growth continues to slow (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. GDP in Q4

Bloomberg - China's Economy an Incentive for Xi to Do a Trade Deal, Economist Says (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses how China's economy can influence a U.S. trade agreement and looks forward to U.S.-European trade talks.

CNBC - Here's how Trump's threats toward Iran and China could impact the economy (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss how the tensions between the U.S., Iran and China might impact the economy.

20 Nov. 2015 EZ Current Account Surplus Goes from Strength to Strength (Publication Centre)

The current account surplus in the Eurozone is well on its way to stabilising above 3% of GDP this year. The seasonally adjusted surplus rose to €29.4B in September from a revised €18.7B in August, lifted by a higher trade surplus, thanks to rebounding German exports. The services balance was unchanged at €4.5B in September, while the primary income balance edged higher to €4.8B from €4.0B. The improving external balance has been driven mostly by a surging trade surplus with the U.S. and the U.K., as our first chart shows.

5 February 2019 Spain's Economy is Still the Unsung Hero in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The majority of headlines from last week's advance Q4 GDP data in the Eurozone--see here--were negative.

26 October 2017 Politburo Appointments Ensure Policy Continuity, Nothing More (Publication Centre)

The Chinese Communist Party revealed the new members of its top brass yesterday, with the line-up ensuring policy continuity.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid export headline, but net trade probably fell in Q1.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by jump in imports.

LatAm Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico (Publication Centre)

In one line: On hold and on the sidelines in the near term due to high uncertainty.

5 February 2019 Economic and Inflation Conditions Remain Benign in the Andes (Publication Centre)

Colombia's BanRep stuck to the script on Thursday by leaving the policy rate on hold at 4.25%.

8 December 2017 Production Likely Was Neither Strong Nor Stable in October (Publication Centre)

The 0.7% month-to-month rise in industrial production in September marked the sixth consecutive increase, a feat last achieved 23 years ago.

LatAm Datanote: CPI, Mexico, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bad-looking start to Q2, but the y/y rate was hurt by an unfavourable base effect.

LatAm Datanote: Bi-weekly CPI, Mexico, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation pressures are starting to ease.

8 November 2018 Is it Time to Worry About Consumers' Spending in Japan (Publication Centre)

The recent slowdown in labour cash earnings growth in Japan halted in September.

8 Sept. 2015 No Loss of Momentum in August Employment, Despite Headline (Publication Centre)

The soft-looking August payroll number almost certainly will be revised up substantially, as the readings for this month have been in each of the past six years. Runs of remarkably consistent revisions--from 53K to 104K, with a median of 66K--don't happen by chance very often. A far more likely explanation is that the seasonal adjustments are flawed, having failed to keep up with changes in employment patterns since the crash. If the median revision is a good guide to what happens this year, the August number will be pushed up to 240K, in line with our estimate of the underlying trend and much more closely aligned with the message from a host of leading indicators.

EZ Datanote: Sentix and Retail Sales, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: A further rebound in investor sentiment, and a robust Q1 for the EZ consumer.

21 May 2018 Higher Oil Prices won't Kill the Economy, A Boost is a Better Bet (Publication Centre)

Oil prices have risen by about $20 per barrel since last fall.

21 March 2018 China's Fiscal Reforms: Economies of Scale won't Reduce the Deficit yet (Publication Centre)

Premier Li Keqiang rounded out the National People's Congress with his press conference yesterday.

21 November 2017 Is Germany Headed for New Elections Next Year? (Publication Centre)

Political uncertainty in the Eurozone is the story that won't die. Coalition talks in Germany collapsed yesterday when the centre-right FDP walked out of the negotiations.

5 July. 2016 Argentina's Economy is Still Shrinking, But Growth will Come (Publication Centre)

Argentina's overdue policy tightening, aimed at dealing with the country's severe inflation and fiscal problems, is underway. Printing of ARS at the central bank, the BCRA, to finance the budget, deficit has slowed and will be curbed further. Welfare spending, which accounts for nearly half of government spending, has been put on the chopping block.

25 March 2019 The Long-Awaited Soft Brexit Pivot is Now Getting Underway (Publication Centre)

We expect MPs this week to take a big step towards a soft Brexit, which has been our base case since the referendum.

21 June 2019 No Sign the BoE is About to Follow Others With Fresh Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The MPC's unanimous decision to keep Bank Rate at 0.75% and the minutes of its meeting left little impression on markets, which still see a higher chance of the MPC cutting Bank Rate within the next 12 months than raising it.

5 July 2019 Payrolls Set to Rebound, but not Boom, Wage Gains Back on Track? (Publication Centre)

We expect to see a 160K increase in June payrolls today, though uncertainty over the extent of the rebound after June's modest 75K increase means that all payroll forecasts should be viewed with even more skepticism than usual.

26 June 2018 Low Inventory Still Lifting Home Prices Ignore So Case Shiller Data (Publication Centre)

Today brings more housing market data, in the form of the Case-Shiller home price report for April.

21 January 2019 Governor Kuroda is at the Last Chance Saloon, Q2 is it (Publication Centre)

Forecasting BoJ policy for this year is trickier than it has been in a long time.

27 November 2017 Brazil's Politics and Economy are Both Heading in the Right Direction (Publication Centre)

President Temer seems to be advancing on his reform agenda.

29 January 2019 Is it a Good Idea for Markets to Ignore Poor Macro Data in the EZ (Publication Centre)

In the last few weeks markets have been treated to the news that euro area industrial production crashed towards the end of Q4, warning that GDP growth failed to rebound at the end of 2018 from an already weak Q3.

7 November. 2016 Wage Gains Will Focus Fed Minds (Publication Centre)

If the Fed needed further encouragement to raise rates next month, it arrived Friday in the form of solid jobs numbers, a new cycle low for the broad unemployment rate, and a new cycle high for wage growth.

LatAm Datanote: Economic Activity Index, Brazil, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: An ugly start to the second quarter, despite a modest improvement in sectoral data.

3 December 2018 March 29 Is Not an Immovable Deadline for Brexit (Publication Centre)

Both the E.U. and the U.K. government have been keen to emphasise, since the Withdrawal Agreement was provisionally signed off, that March 29 is a hard deadline for Brexit.

7 February 2018 The EZ Economy Should be Resilient to Rising Market Volatility (Publication Centre)

As we go to press, equities in the Eurozone are having a bad day following the collapse in U.S. and Asian equities earlier.

29 September 2017 External Accounts no Longer Improving in Brazil and Mexico (Publication Centre)

Brazil's current account deficit is stabilizing following an substantial narrowing since early 2015, thanks to the deep recession.

29 November 2018 We're Holding our Non-Consensus View for no Bank of Korea Hike (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea will tomorrow hold its final meeting for the year.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Underlying pressures are modest, and food prices are starting to stabilise.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: A big downside surprise.

19 December 2018 Another Strong Economic Activity Index in Brazil Outlook is Upbeat (Publication Centre)

Brazil is back on global investors' radar screens. Financial market metrics capture a relatively robust bullish tone, especially since the presidential election.

25 March 2019 The Fundamentals are at Odds with the Curve, no Recession Near (Publication Centre)

The commentariat was very excited Friday by the inversion of the curve, with three-year yields dipping to 2.24% while three-month bills yield 2.45%.

27 June. 2016 A Post-Brexit EU is Weakened, But Not Destined for a Collapse (Publication Centre)

The ECB's statement following the panic on Friday was brief and offered few details. The central bank said that it is closely monitoring markets, and that it is ready to provide additional liquidity in both euros and foreign currency, if needed. It also said that it is in close coordination with other central banks.

PM Datanote: Inflation, Chile, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation still little source of concern.

27 June 2019 Deal or No Deal Fed Cut or No Fed Cut What Does the PBoC Do (Publication Centre)

In this Monitor, befitting these uncertain times, we set out the decision tree facing Chinese policymakers.

8 February 2019 Brazil's Policymakers are in no Rush to Change Rates Reform is the Key (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board--the Copom--voted unanimously on Wednesday to keep the Selic rate on hold at 6.50%.

19 December 2017 Andean Economies Closely Related by Copper, but Divided by Politics (Publication Centre)

Sebastián Piñera returns to the Presidential Palacio de la Moneda, succeeding Michelle Bachelet as president of Chile, as in 2010.

19 May 2017 Brazil's Economy Doing Well, But Severe Political Risk is Back (Publication Centre)

Political risk in Brazil has increased substantially, following reports that President Temer was taped in an alleged cover-up scheme involving the jailed former Speaker of the House. If the tapes are verified, calls for Mr. Temer to face impeachment will mount.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: A sharp increase on the month, but underlying pressures remain tame.

5 April 2017 The Brazilian Economy is Improving: Expect a Modest Q1 GDP Recovery (Publication Centre)

Brazilian February industrial production data, released yesterday, were relatively positive. Output rose 0.1% month-to-month, pushing the yearover- year rate down to -0.8% from 1.4% in January. Statistical quirks were behind February's year-over-year fall, though.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: A modest rebound, but the trend is improving.

2 November 2018 Copom on Hold for a While the BRL Allows some Room for Manoeuvre (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank kept the Selic policy rate at 6.50% this week, as markets broadly expected.

LatAm Datanote: Economic Activity Index, Brazil, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: A decent improvement, and we expect further good news ahead.

28 November. 2016 Banxico's Balancing Act is Becoming Harder and More Risky (Publication Centre)

Banxico's decisions throughout the past year have been guided by external forces, dominated by the persistent decline of the MXN against the USD and its potential impact on inflation. The MXN has fallen by almost 17% year-to-date and has dropped by an eye-watering 37% since 2014.

2 November 2018 The MPC will Hike Twice in 2019, Provided a Transition Deal is Secured (Publication Centre)

The MPC's "Super Thursday" communications left markets a little more confident that interest rates will rise again in May, shor tly after the likely start of the Brexit transition period.

27 December 2018 The President is the Problem, not the Federal Reserve or Jay Powell (Publication Centre)

The biggest single problem for the stock market is the president.

LatAm Datanote: Final GDP, Mexico, Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A poor start to the year due to broadbased weakness.

8 March 2019 Doves on Parade at the ECB No Hikes in 2019, and New TLTROs (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi and his colleagues erred on the side of maximum dovishness yesterday.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing gain fails to offset weakness elsewhere.

19 May. 2015 Dip in Investors' Expectations is Nothing to Worry about Yet (Publication Centre)

This week sees the release of most of the key May surveys. The prospect of mean reversion following a very strong start to the year, coupled with the impact of recent market volatility, points to a modest loss of momentum, especially for surveys of investors.

8 May 2018 Small Firms' Sentiment Likely has Weakened Further, but no Disaster (Publication Centre)

We're looking forward to today's April NFIB survey of activity and sentiment in the small business sector with some trepidation.

2 July 2019 Mr. Trump Removes the Gun from Mr. Xi's Head... Now a Deal? (Publication Centre)

We anticipated that the G20 meeting at Osaka over last weekend would be a potentially important mark of thawing relations between China and the U.S., with the hotly awaited meeting between Messrs. Xi and Trump.

5 December 2017 Andean Economies Are Surprising Positively, but Politics is a Risk (Publication Centre)

Peru's inflation continues to surprise to the downside, paving the way for an additional rate cut next week.

21 November 2018 Korean PPI Points to Cascading Drops in Inflation Elsewhere in Asia (Publication Centre)

PPI inflation in Korea slowed sharply in October, to a five-month low of 2.2%, from 2.7% in September.

28 January 2019 The IFO Piles the Pressure on an Already Weak German Economy (Publication Centre)

Judging by the survey data, German business sentiment remained depressed at the start of the year.

6 November 2018 Chinese PMIs Show the Economy o to a Weak Start in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Caixin services PMI data complete the set for October.

9 November 2018 Ignore the Headlines the Tariffs are Starting to Hit China's Trade Flows (Publication Centre)

China's official, unadjusted trade data for October grabbed the headlines, as they look great at first glance.

23 May 2017 The Mexican Economy Shrugged Off Trump in Q1, But Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed Mexican GDP report confirmed that growth was resilient in Q1, despite external and domestic headwinds. GDP rose 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, in line with our expectation, but marginally above the first estimate, 0.6%.

9 May 2017 Does the Economy Thrive Under "Strong and Stable" Government? (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister has argued repeatedly during the general election campaign that Britain will prosper under a "strong and stable" Conservative government with a large majority. "Division in Westminster," she argued when calling the election last month, "...will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit and it will cause damaging uncertainty and instability to the country."

23 November 2018 Economic Growth in France Should Maintain Momentum in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of survey data in France, tentatively suggest that business sentiment is stabilising following a string of declines since the start of the year.

EZ Datanote: EZ Industrial Production and ZEW (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid production data in Q1, but setback looms in Q2.

9 August. 2016 NFIB Survey Signals Better Non-Oil Business Capex as Soon as Q3 (Publication Centre)

The headline NFIB index of small business activity and sentiment in July likely will be little changed from June--we expect a half-point dip, while the consensus forecast is for a repeat of June's 94.5--but what we really care about is the capex intentions componen

24 January 2018 Low Public Borrowing Reflects One-Offs, not a Reviving Economy (Publication Centre)

The main measure of public borrowing--PSNB excluding public sector banks--came in at £2.6B in December, well below the £5.1B in December 2016 and lower than in any other December since 2000.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Old news, but spectacular details all the same.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core inflation remains subdued, but it will rise soon.

6 November 2017 Could a Q4 Data Bounce the MPC into Another Rate Hike? (Publication Centre)

The MPC's penchant for providing interest rate guidance reached new heights last week.

28 March 2017 EZ Money Supply Hit by Non-M1 Components in February (Publication Centre)

Momentum in the euro area's money supply slowed last month. M3 growth dipped to 4.7% year-over-year in February, from a downwardly-revised 4.8% in January. The headline was mainly constrained by the broad money components. The stock of repurchase agreements slumped 24.3% year-over-year and growth in money market fund shares also slowed sharply.

23 November 2018 Risk Diverges in the Biggest LatAm Economies, Will it Stabilize Soon? (Publication Centre)

Idiosyncratic developments have driven market volatility in LatAm in recent weeks.

6 September 2018 ADP Will Report Another Solid Gain in Private Payrolls for August (Publication Centre)

Labor demand appears to have remained strong through August, so we expect to see a robust ADP report today.

EZ Datanote: Advance EZ PMIs and IFO, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stabilisation at best; details remain depressing reading.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Germany, Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Domestic demand to the rescue, but inventories will be a drag in Q2.

7 February 2017 Disinflation in Colombia Continues, but Momentum is Easing, for now (Publication Centre)

January CPI data in Colombia, released on Saturday, confirmed that inflation pressures eased last month, but the details weren't as good as the headline. Inflation fell to 5.5% year-over-year, from 5.8% in December, as a result of falling food inflation-- helped mainly by a favourable base effect--and lower clothing prices.

27 September 2016 The Surging IFO Points to a Resilient German Economy in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey in Germany was a big relief for markets, in light of recent soft data. The main business climate index jumped to 109.5 in September, from 106.3 in August, the biggest month-to-month increase since 2010.

24 February 2017 German Economy did Well in Q4, but What Happened to Net Trade? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed German GDP report raised more questions than it answered. The headline confirmed that growth accelerated to 0.4% quarteron- quarter in Q4, from 0.1% in Q3, leaving the year-over- year rate unchanged at 1.7%.

Asia Datanote: FX Reserves, China, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Just a valuations drag; net capital outflows up modestly

7 November 2018 No Sign of Slowing Labor Demand it's Rising Faster than Supply (Publication Centre)

The flow of data pointing to strength in the labor market has continued this week, on the heels of last week's report of a 250K jump in October payrolls.

24 Apr. 2015 Cyclical recovery remains on track in the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

The preliminary April PMIs point to a continuation of the cyclical bounce, despite falling slightly from last month. The composite PMI in the Eurozone fell to 53.5 in April, down from 54.0 in March.

7 August 2017 Japan's Wage Drop not so Damaging as Regular Wages Rise (Publication Centre)

Japanese average cash earnings posted a surprise drop of 0.4% year-over-year in June, down from 0.6% in May and sharply below the consensus for a rise of 0.5%. The decline was driven by a fall in the June bonus, by 1.5%.

7 Aug 2019 We're Still Not Buying Healthy Data in Japan Wage Growth is Distorted (Publication Centre)

Always expect the unexpected in a bonus month for Japanese wages.

9 May. 2016 Payrolls Will Rebound--Maybe not in May--and Wages Are Rising (Publication Centre)

The undershoot in April payrolls, relative to the consensus, is a story of a fluke number in just one sector. Retail payrolls reportedly shrank by 3K, after rising by an average of 52K over the previous six months. Our first chart shows clearly that the retail payrolls are quite volatile over short periods, with sudden and often inexplicable swings in both directions quite common.

28 Jan. 2015 Economic Momentum Means no Easing in Mexico this Year (Publication Centre)

Mexico's central bank, Banxico, will hold its first monetary policy meeting of this year tomorrow. It will break with tradition, holding the meeting on Thursday at 1:00 p.m, local time, instead of the previous 9:00 a.m slot.

7 November 2018 Sentiment Surveys are Deteriorating in Mexico Texcoco Airport Effect (Publication Centre)

Recently released data in Mexico are sending weak signals for the business outlook, and the Texcoco airport saga won't help.

PM Datanote: Trade Balance, France, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Q1 net trade hit confirmed; a rebound in Q2?

6 May. The MPC Won't Step in to Revive the Economy this Time (Publication Centre)

The latest U.K. PMIs were unambiguously dreadful. The manufacturing, construction and services PMIs all fell in April, and their weighted average points to quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP slowing to zero in Q2, from 0.4% in Q1. The U .K.'s composite PMI also undershot the Eurozone's for the second month this year.

27 November 2017 Is it a Bird? Is it a Plane? No, It's the German IFO Survey (Publication Centre)

We are happy to report that the laws of gravity have been temporarily suspended in the German survey data.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, and the outlook for Q2 isn't great.

24 May 2019 Modi 2.0 Defies Expectations, but Economic Reality will Hit Hard (Publication Centre)

India's National Democratic Alliance, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party,

26 February 2018 The Era of Abnormally Low U.S. Long Real Yields is Coming to an End (Publication Centre)

After many years in which the phrase "twin deficits" was never mentioned, suddenly it is the explanation of choice for the weakening of the dollar and the sudden increase in real Treasury yields since the turn of the year, shortly after the tax cut bill passed Congress.

22 February 2017 PMI Data in the Eurozone Signal a Strengthening Economy (Publication Centre)

Our view that EZ survey data would take a step back in February was severely challenged by yesterday's PMI reports. The composite index in the Eurozone rose to 56.0 in February, from 54.4 in January, lifted by a jump in the services index and a small rise in the manufacturing index.

6 April 2018 The Game Theory of Sino-U.S. Relations, the Status quo is Out (Publication Centre)

The meta game between China and Mr. Trump started as soon as he had any possibility of winning the election in 2016.

7 November 2017 Central Bank in Argentina and Peru to Leave Rates on Hold this Week (Publication Centre)

Argentina's central bank likely will leave its main interest rate at 27.75% tomorrow at its biweekly monetary policy meeting.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, but it won't last.

28 November 2018 No Level of Spin Can Paint China's Industrial Profits in a Better Light (Publication Centre)

The latest profits data out of China were grim, as we had expected.

9 November 2017 Claims Data Look Great, but Payrolls are Driven More by Shifts in Hiring (Publication Centre)

We were pretty sure that the underlying trend in jobless claims had bottomed, in the high 230s, before the hurricanes began to distort the data in early September.

28 November 2018 Is Mr Macron About to Lose to the Street Like his Predecessors (Publication Centre)

Our hopes that tax cuts and lower energy inflation would lift French household consumption in Q4 were badly dented by yesterday's consumer sentiment report.

5 November 2018 Labor Demand is Enough for 200K+ Job Gains Can Supply Keep Up (Publication Centre)

The headline 250K October payroll number looked great.

9 Aug 2019 China's Trade Balance has Just About Peaked, For Now (Publication Centre)

China's trade numbers for July surprised to the upside, with both exports and imports faring better than consensus forecasts in year-over-year terms.

6 December 2017 ADP to Report Strong November Jobs, but will Overstate Official Data (Publication Centre)

The ADP measure of private employment hugely overstated the official measure of payrolls in September, in the wake of Hurricane Irma, but then slightly understated the October number.

6 February 2019 Q1 GDP Growth will be Lacklustre, but not as Bad as the PMIs Imply (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's news that the business activity index of the Markit/CIPS services survey fell again in January, to just 50.1--its lowest level since July 2016--has created a downbeat backdrop to the MPC meeting; the minutes and Q1 Inflation Report will be published on Thursday.

22 November 2017 What's the Case for Increased Fiscal Stimulus in the Eurozone? (Publication Centre)

The euro area's record-high external surplus has prompted commentators to suggest that the zone has room to loosen fiscal policy to support growth, or at least relax the deficit reduction rules.

28 May 2019 Count on Consumers to Drag the Economy Through the Brexit Mess (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister's resignation and the stillborn launch of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill last week has forced us to revise our Brexit base case, from a soft E.U. departure on October 31 to continued paralysis.

28 March 2019 Super Low Gilt Yields Aren't Warranted by the Economic Outlook (Publication Centre)

Gilt yields have tumbled, with the 10-year sliding to just 1.0%, from 1.2% a week ago.

23 August 2017 Mexican Economy was Firm in H1, H2 Will be Soft, but 2018 Better (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed Mexican GDP report confirmed that growth was relatively resilient in Q2, despite the lagged effect of external and domestic headwinds.

24 January 2019 What's Brewing Under the Surface of the BoJ's Nonchalance (Publication Centre)

We suspect that under the calm surface of the BoJ, a major decision is being debated.

6 March 2019 We're Still Not Buying the PMIs' No Growth Message (Publication Centre)

The small rise in the Markit/CIPS services PMI to 51.3 in February, from 50.1 in January, came as a relief yesterday.

EZ Datanote: GDP and Employment, EZ, Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid overall; but an investment slowdown looms.

22 May 2018 Sino-U.S. Negotiations Present a Risk to Japan's Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade surplus rebounded to ¥522B in April, on our adjustment, from ¥390B in March, around the same level as the official version, though from a higher base.

6 June 2017 The Spanish Economy is Punching Above its Weight. Can it Last? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final May PMI data in the Eurozone confirmed the strength of the cyclical upturn. The composite PMI was unchanged at 56.8, in line with the initial estimate.

22 May 2019 Sino-U.S. Negotiations are a Key Risk to Andean External Accounts (Publication Centre)

Data released on Monday showed that Chile's external accounts remained under pressure at the start of the year, and trade tensions mean that it will be harder to finance the gap.

6 June 2018. Productivity Growth is Improving, Ignore the Lackluster Q1 Numbers (Publication Centre)

Revisions to the first quarter productivity numbers, due today, likely will be trivial, given the minimal 0.1 percentage point downward revision to GDP growth reported last week.

6 June 2019 The PMIs Still Aren't Weak Enough to Justify Rate Cut Speculation (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, markets' newfound view that the MPC's next move is more likely to be a rate cut than a hike was supported by May's Markit/CIPS PMIs.

21 November 2018 Commodity Prices Struggle in the Trade War Will LatAm be Resilient (Publication Centre)

The sharp downtrend in commodity prices in recent months is alarming from a LatAm perspective.

19 June 2018 A Trade War of Attrition Looks Likely, but the Damage for now is Minimal (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, trade negotiations have deteriorated in the last week.

*May 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Rising Inflation has ended the consumer boom...Investment and Trade won't fill the void

*May 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Don't be distracted by weak first quarter GDP...The Fed doesn't care (much)

*May 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A rise in inflation will support an August hike....the MPC likely will tighten at a faster rate next year

*May 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The cycle is peaking as higher rates begin to bite...but the next downturn is still some way off

*March 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brexit risk currently is only depressing Capex....Rates need to rise to contain wage cost pressures

*March 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Markets think a May rate hike is almost certain...but activity and inflation data point to a delay

*June 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Payroll "Slowdown" Won't Last... The Fed Will Hike This Month, and Again Later This Year

*June 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The fed is in a double bind: what to expect, and what to do

*March 2017 - Eurozone Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Dutch Pro-EU Centrists Carry The Day...But We Can't Assume The Same Will Happen In France

*March 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Consumers are buckling under high inflation...but the MPC won't add to their woes by hiking rates

*May 2019 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Markets are still cheering the solid Q1 GDP data...but we are worried about a setback in Q2

*May 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Q1 Growth Is Unsustainable...But The Labor Market Will Continue To Tighten

*November 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Sub -4% Unemployment is coming, and soon...How will the Fed respond?

*November 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Growth Has Peaked as the Tax Cut Boost Fades...But the Labor Market is Keeping the Fed on Track

*Oct. 2016 - LATAM. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Latam activity and markets are improving......but volatility will rise in Q4 due to global factors

*Oct. 2016 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The FOMC is split on everything......but a clear majority will vote to hike in December

*November 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A year will pass before rates rise again...growth will slow and inflation will fall swiftly

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: More evidence that the manufacturing downshift is stabilizing.

*Nov. 2016 - U.K.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Exports won't offset a Consumer Slowdown...Sterling decline has Constrained Policymakers

*Nov. 2016 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

More Public Spending and Higher Rates in 2017...Whoever Wins

*November 2017 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Accelerating GDP growth and low inflation...It's the perfect combination, but will it last?

*July 2019 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Eurozone GDP growth likely slowed in Q2...teeing up a deposit rate cut in September

*July 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Fed hawks are in the ascendancy,..but they won't be fully in charge until next year

*December 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Slowdown Story is Overdone...If a China Deal is Done, the Fed Will Keep Hiking

U.S. Datanote: NFIB Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, but still an incomplete recovery.

*Feb 2017 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

How and when will the Fed respond to Fiscal Easing?

*February 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Has the wages dam finally burst? If it hasn't, it will soon

*December 2017 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Growth, inflation to challenge the Fed in 2018...faster wage growth will push them too

18 June 2019 Mr. Kuroda says Capex is Key for Japan's Economy How is it Doing (Publication Centre)

Japanese policymakers have a wary eye on the weakness in industrial production and exports.

*Dec. 2016 - U.K.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Consumer and Investment Slowdown Beckons......Tighter Macro Policy will worsen the downturn

*Dec. 2016 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brace for the Fed's Pushback...But only when Fiscal Easing is in front of Congress

*December 2017 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Christmas present to markets from the ECB...Low core inflation and sizzling GDP growth in 2018

*December 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brexit and fiscal headwinds have lessended...but consumers' spending will struggle in 2018

*February 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Fed Is All-In On The Slowdown Story...But They're Playing With Fire In The Labor Market

*Jan 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A consumer and investment slowdown beckons...Tighter macro policy will worsen the downturn

*January 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Soft Brexit Remains The Most Likely Outcome....So The MPC Soon Up The Pace Of Tightening

*July 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Growth is too slow to warrant a rate hike...domestically-generated inflation remain weak

*July 2018 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

EZ GDP growth is slowing, gently, to 2%...with political uncertainty looming, as ever

*July 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Growth won't accelerate until next year...but the MPC is set to hike rates in August anyway

*January 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Slower Growth This Year Is Invevitable...But That Doesn't Make Zero Hikes Inevitable Too

U.S. Datanote: Philadelphia Fed Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: More evidence that China's PMI upturn is filtering into U.S. manufacturing.

*Jan. 2017 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Fed is fretting over fiscal easing......upside risk to growth, inflation and interest rates

*January 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Strong growth, rising inflation greet Powel...but is productivity growth finally picking up?

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Employment, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Could have been worse; expect better ahead.

*October 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Yellen's inner hawk escapes...Expect a December hike, and four more next year

*October 2018 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Poor Q3 GDP Data and Volatile BTPS Ahead...But Markets Already Have Priced-In A Lot Of Pain

13 March 2018 Scandals Could Take Down Abe Would Abenomics Survive (Publication Centre)

Japan's Ministry of Finance yesterday admitted falsifying documents submitted to the country's parliament during a corruption probe last year.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Details indicate that downside pressure is much less than headlines suggest.

13 November 2018 Will Poor Sentiment and Political Uncertainty Knock EZ Investment (Publication Centre)

The outlook for private investment in the Eurozone has deteriorated this year, especially in manufacturing.

13 September. 2016 Will the NFIB Survey Point to Stronger Non-mining Capex? (Publication Centre)

The key labor market numbers from today's August NFIB survey of small businesses have already been released--they appear a day or two before the employment report--but they will be reported as though they are news. The headline hiring intentions reading dipped to nine from 12, leaving it near the bottom of the range of the past couple of years.

13 June 2017 May's Inflation Figures Likely Will Bring Another Upside Surprise (Publication Centre)

May's consumer price figures, released today, will provide the first clean inflation read for three months, following the distortions created by this year's late Easter. Consensus forecasts and the MPC have underestimated CPI inflation regularly since the middle of last year, when the impact of sterling's depreciation began to push into the data.

13 December. 2016 Today's NFIB Labor Data are not New, but they are Important (Publication Centre)

The falling unemployment rate and the threat it poses to the inflation outlook mean that the labor market numbers in the NFIB small business survey attract more attention than the other data in the report.

31 July 2019 Low Inflation and Economy Under Strain will Force Banxico to Cut (Publication Centre)

We're maintaining our estimate of Mexico's Q2 GDP growth, due today, namely a 0.2% year- over-year contraction, in line with a recent array of extremely poor data.

12 March 2019 PM Set for Defeat, Whether Today's Vote is "Conditional" or Not (Publication Centre)

Mrs. May looks set to lose the second "meaningful vote" on the Withdrawal Agreement-- WA--today, whether she decides on a straightforward vote or one asking MPs to b ack it if some hypothetical concessions are achieved.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery from the Q4 stock market hit continues apace.

13 April 2018 The BoK's Pending Rate Hikes are About Debt, not Inflation (Publication Centre)

The Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 1.50% yesterday, but downgraded its inflation forecast for 2018 to 1.6% from 1.7%

14 February 2017 Brace for January Data to Show Another Hefty Rise in CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

January's consumer price report, released today, likely will show that CPI inflation jumped to 1.9%--its highest rate since June 2014--from 1.6% in December. Inflation will continue to take big upward steps over the coming months, as retailers pass on to consumers large increase in import prices and energy companies increase tariffs.

14 March 2019 Korea's Labour Market Data Throw Another Curveball (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate tumbled to 3.7% in February, after the leap to 4.4% in January.

16 May 2019 Headline EZ GDP and Real M1 Point to a Robust Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data in the EZ provided a little more evidence on what happened in Q1.

16 May. 2016 Eurozone GDP Growth is Not Accelerating, Despite Strong Q1 (Publication Centre)

The second round of EZ GDP data on Friday confirmed the resilience of cyclical upturn. Real GDP in the euro area rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, up from 0.3% in Q4, and the fastest pace since the first quarter of last year. But the headline was slightly lower than the initial estimate, 0.6%, and consistent with our forecast before Friday's data.

16 November 2018 Banxico is Pushed to Hike Rates Further Tactical Tightening is Likely (Publication Centre)

Banxico hiked its policy rate by 25bp to a cyclical-high of 8.0% yesterday, in line with market expectations.

17 December 2018 Peru's Economy Will Remain the Outperformer in LatAm Next Year (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank kept the reference rate unchanged at 3.5% at Thursday's meeting, in line with our view and market expectations.

16 July 2019 No End in Sight Yet to the Industrial Consumer Bifurcation (Publication Centre)

Today's brings the June retail sales and industrial production reports, after which we'll update our second quarter GDP forecast.

14 September 2018 A Slightly Confusing ECB Meeting, but No Change to the Key Message (Publication Centre)

The ECB's key message was unchanged yesterday. The main refinancing and deposit rates were maintained at zero and -0.4%, respectively, and they are expected "to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019."

14 November 2018 Banxico Likely Will Hike Tomorrow Interventionist Threats are Growing (Publication Centre)

After recent interventionist moves and plans in Mexico from AMLO's incoming administration and his political party, uncertainty and soured sentiment are the name of the game.

14 November 2018 German GDP Growth Crashed in Q3, but Inflation is Firming (Publication Centre)

We remain confident--see here--that today's Q3 GDP report in Germany will be a shocker, but this already is priced-in by markets.

14 September 2017 PBoC Pushes Back on RMB Rise. Stability is Still King, for now (Publication Centre)

The RMB has risen strongly in recent months, initially with the euro and the yen, but China's currency rose on a trade-weighted basis in August.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: The core capex picture is deteriorating.

12 December 2016 Brazilian Inflation Dropped in November (Publication Centre)

Friday's inflation report for Brazil confirmed that inflation is rapidly falling towards the BCB's target range, helping to make the case for stepping up the pace of monetary easing to 50bp at the Copom's January meeting.

04 Mar. 2016 Brazil's Economy Collapsed in 2015 - No Sign of Quick Recovery (Publication Centre)

The BCB's Copom kept Brazil's Selic rate at 14.25% this week, as expected. The brief accompanying communiqué was very similar to the January statement, saying that after assessing the outlook for growth and inflation, and "the current balance of risks, considering domestic and, mainly, external uncertainties", the Copom decided to keep the Selic rate at a nine-year high, without bias.

05 Feb. 2016 The Strong Dollar is Supporting Mexico's Domestic Economy (Publication Centre)

Mexico's structural reforms, robust fundamentals, and its close ties to the U.S. should have conferred a degree of protection from the turmoil in EMs over the past year. But its markets have been hit as hard as other LatAm countries by the sell-off in global markets in recent weeks. The MXN fell about 5% against the USD in January alone, and has dropped by 20% over the last year.

1 February 2018 New Wage Data Do Not Meaningfully Re-Write History (Publication Centre)

Experimental figures, released earlier this week, suggest that wages have increased at a faster rate than indicated by the average weekly earnings--AWE--data.

1 February 2019 EZ Slowdown Confirmed now we Wait, and Hope, for Better News (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance Q4 GDP data in the Eurozone confirmed that growth slowed significantly in the second half of 2018.

*September 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Harvey and Irma will shred late q3/q4 data... ...if the fed doesn't hike in December, they will in march

*September 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The MPC talks up raising bank rate soon...but weak wage growth likely will mean it hesitates

*October 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Rates On Hold Until After the Brexit Deadline...But Two Hikes Likely in 2019, When Capex Rebounds

31 January 2019 The French Economy Was More Resilient than Expected in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data dump in the EZ delivered something investors haven't seen for a while, namely, positive surprises.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim, but probably overstates payroll weakness.

*October 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Serious Slowdown is Still Some Way Off...So the Fed has to Keep Turning the Screws

1 November 2017 Rising Industrial Output Will Lift Chile's IMACEC, Jobs Wil Follow (Publication Centre)

Industrial output in Chile struggled late in the third quarter, falling 1.3% month-to-month in September. The year-over-year rate, calendar and seasonally adjusted, rose 2.4% in September, down from a revised 5.3% in August.

1 November 2017 2017 Eurozone Macroeconomic Data Don't get Much Better than this (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a nearly perfect day for investors in the Eurozone. The Q3 GDP data were robust, unemployment fell, and core inflation dipped slightly, vindicating markets' dovish outlook for the ECB.

11 Apr. 2016 Economic Weakness Starting To Reduce Inflation in Brazil and Chile (Publication Centre)

Brazil's March report reinforced recent evidence indicating that inflation is decelerating. The headline CPI surprised to the downside again, slowing to a nine-month low of 9.4% year-over-year from 10.4% in February. The index rose 2.6% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, well below the 3.8% increase in the same period last year.

11 December 2017 The EU and the U.K. Have a Deal, Now Comes the Difficult Bit (Publication Centre)

The 16-page document--see here--detailing the agreement allowing the EU and the U.K. to move forward in the Brexit negotiations is predictably tedious.

11 July 2019 Only a Run of Very Strong Numbers Now Could Stop the Fed this Month (Publication Centre)

At least some investors clearly were expecting Fed Chair Powell yesterday to offer a degree of resistance to the idea that a rate cut at the end o f this month is a done deal.

12 April 2018 A Much-Needed Reality Check on the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Today's industrial production data in the Eurozone will extend the run of soft headlines at the start of the year.

10 October 2017 German Manufacturing Continued to Boost the Economy in Q3 (Publication Centre)

German manufacturing snapped back at the end of summer. Industrial production jumped 2.6% month-to-month in August, pushing the year-over- year rate up to 4.7% from a revised 4.2% in July.

10 January 2018 Mexican Inflation at a 16-Year High. Non-core Prices to Blame (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's CPI report in Mexico showed that inflation remains high, but we are confident that it will start to fall consistently during Q1, thanks chiefly to a favourable base effect.

1 November 2017 BoJ Signals Intransigence as Global Central Banks Tighten (Publication Centre)

The BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged yesterday, as expected, with the signal coming through loud and clear: Japan's central bank will continue its aggressive easing policy until the inflation cows come home...

1 November 2018 More Trick and Less Treat as the BoJ Leaves Market Hanging (Publication Centre)

The BoJ kept policy unchanged, as expected, at its meeting yesterday.

10 April 2017 Will the Inflation Dichotomy in the Big LatAm Economies Persist? (Publication Centre)

Brazilian inflation hit its lowest rate in almost seven years in March, while Mexico's rate is the highest since July 2009. Yet we expect Mexico to tighten policy only modestly in the near term, while Brazil will ease rapidly.

*August 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

GDP growth won't accelerate until next year...Low inflation will ease pressure to hike rates again

31 January 2018 2017 was a Record-Breaking Year for the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance Eurozone Q4 GDP report conformed to expectations. Headline GDP increased 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, slowing trivially from an upwardly-revised 0.7% rise in Q3, and nudging the year-over-year rate down marginally to 2.7%.

30 July 2019 Data released last week confirmed that economic activity improved significantly in Argentina in Q2. (Publication Centre)

Argentina's Recession Has Ended, Supporting Mr. Macri's Odds

4 Mar. 2015 Mean Reversion Makes ADP Look Like a Leading Indicator - It's Not (Publication Centre)

Mean-reversion is a wonderful thing; it's what gives the ADP employment report the wholly unjustified appearance of being a useful leading indicator of payroll growth. Over time, the best single forecast of payroll gains or losses in any particular month is whatever happened last month.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Households aren't fazed by the political crisis.

30 April 2019 No Boost to Business Confidence from the Brexit Delay (Publication Centre)

News that the U.K.'s departure from the E.U. has been delayed by six months, unless MPs ratify the existing deal sooner, appears to have done little to revive confidence among businesses.

3 November. 2016 Rates Will Rise in December, If Events Don't Intervene (Publication Centre)

The Fed left rates on hold yesterday, as expected, repeating its long-held core view that inflation will rise to 2% in the medium-term, requiring gradual increases in the fed funds rate.

17 November 2017 Commodities Tailwind Helping Andean Economies to Recover (Publication Centre)

Colombian activity data released this week were relatively strong, but mostly driven by the primary sectors; consumption remains sluggish compared to previous standards.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Halifax House Price Index, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still implausibly strong.

4 February 2019 Eurozone Inflation Data are Not a Threat to Markets, For Now (Publication Centre)

The days of +2% inflation in the Eurozone are long gone. Data on Friday showed that the headline rate slipped to 1.4% year-over-year in January, from 1.6% in December, thanks to a 2.9 percentage point plunge in energy inflation to 2.6%.

30 Nov. 2015 Bullish Economic Data Will Not Deter the ECB this Week (Publication Centre)

Bullish money supply data last week added to the evidence that the Eurozone's business cycle is strengthening. Broad money growth--M3--rose to 5.3% year-over-year in October from 4.9% in September. Most of the increase came from a surge in short-term debt issuance, rising 8.4% year-over-year, following an inexplicable 1.4% fall in September.

30 November 2018 Japan's Retail Sales Deliver a Rosy October Jump - Blip or Trend? (Publication Centre)

Japan's retail sales values jumped 1.2% month-on-month in October, after the upwardly-revised 0.1% increase in September.

U.S. Datanote: FOMC Announcement, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: A grudging ease makes one-and-done a decent bet, data permitting.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recent declines in y/y rates for core goods and services won't continue.

U.S. Datanote: Chicago PMI, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boeing's woes and trade are hurting.

*August 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Sterling's fall is hurting more than it's helping...Slow GDP and wage growth will keep the MPC inactive

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: The import surge will unwind in Q2.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, March & Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Brexit preparations provide a temporary fillip to manufacturing.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Business and consumer confidence is diverging.

18 December 2017 Tankan Shows this is no Ordinary Japan, Are Animal Spirits Back? (Publication Centre)

The incidence of the phrase "since the early nineties" has increased sharply in our Japan reports this year.

17 October 2018 The Eurozone's Trade Surplus is Headed Down a Notch this Year (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's trade surplus rebounded slightly over the summer, rising to €16.6B in August from €12.6B in July, helped mainly by a 2.0% month-to- month jump in exports.

PM Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still dormant, despite the Brexit delay.

3 July 2019 Not All Construction Sector Indicators are Flashing Red (Publication Centre)

Don't write off the outlook for the construction sector purely on the basis of June's grim Markit/CIPS survey.

3 December 2018 Soft Economic Data in the EZ are Priced-in by Rates Markets (Publication Centre)

Friday's inflation and labour market data in the Eurozone were dovish.

18 June 2019 CPI Inflation is Set to Fall Below- Target Again, But Not as Soon as May (Publication Centre)

We expect May's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation fell to 2.0% in May, from 2.1% in April.

3 November 2017 Expecting Rocketing Payrolls, AHE and Unemployment to Disappoint? (Publication Centre)

We expect a 350K print for October payrolls today. The ADP report was stronger than we expected, suggesting that the post-hurricane rebound will recover more of the ground lost in September than we initially expected.

U.K. Datanote: BRC Retail Sales Monitor, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sub-par, once the Easter effect is excluded.

3 November 2017 The EZ Manufacturing Sector is in No Mood for a Slowdown (Publication Centre)

Survey data signal that Eurozone manufacturing retained momentum at the start of Q4. Yesterday's final PMI reports showed that the EZ manufacturing index rose to 58.5 in October from 58.1 in September, trivially below the first estimate.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still a big gap between business and consumer confidence.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumers are defiantly optimistic, despite the Brexit saga.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July and Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mixed messages warn against coming to strong conclusions.

U.K. Datanote: Car Registrations, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: An inevitable pull-back after Q1's pick-up.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't buy the extremely gloomy message.

30 November. 2016 Brazilian Political Risk is Rising, But Won't Derail the Fiscal Adjustment (Publication Centre)

Political volatility is a recurrent theme in Brazil. Six members of President Michel Temer's cabinet resigned last Friday due to allegations of conflict of interest on a construction deal. Rumours that President Temer was involved in the affair stirred up market volatility and revived political risk concerns

4 Feb. 2015 ADP Should Beat Consensus, but it's not a Reliable Indicator (Publication Centre)

The least-bad way to forecast the ADP employment number is to look at the official private payroll number for the previous month. ADP's methodology generates employment numbers from a model incorporating lagged data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics as well as information from companies which use ADP for payroll processing.

U.S. Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disconnected from the rebound in China's surveys by the trade war.

U.S. Datanote: International Trade, March Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Trade deficit has stabilized, provided the China talks don't fall apart.

*April 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Rising Inflation is Causing a Sharp Slowdown...Sterling's Depreciation has been Harmful so Far

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Starts have further to rise, given the rebound in new home sales.

U.S. Datanote: NAHB Homebuilder Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The clouds over housing are lifting.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surging employment index means payroll weakness likely will be temporary

31 July 2019 The Bank of Japan Snubs the Doves, with its Options Knowingly Limited (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's BoJ statement, outlook and press conference raised our conviction on two key aspects of the policy outlook.

U.S. Datanote: Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: The trend is back to the cycle low.

*April 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Tightening Labor Market is all that Matters...Expect the Fed to Hike at Each Quarter-End

U.S. Datanote: ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Further declines unlikely, but signals slower payroll gains

31 October 2018 Mexico's Airport Cancellation will Damage the Economic Outlook (Publication Centre)

Mexico's financial markets and risk metrics plunged early this week, following the AMLO government's decision to cancel the construction of the new airport in Mexico City, after a public consultation held in the previous four days.

*April 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Don't be Deceived by the Consumer Slowdown...It's a One-Time Transition to Sustainability

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Calendar quirks explain the drop in manufacturing output; expect a rebound in May.

4 April 2019 It's Hard to Find the Signal Behind the ADP Noise in March (Publication Centre)

We can think of at least three reasons for the apparent softness of ADP's March private sector employment reading.

*April 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brexit Risk Currently Is Only Depressing Capex...Rates Will Rise Soon To Contain Wage Cost Pressures

*April 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Trade talk and falling stocks are hurting...but the fed is still on course for four hikes this year

31 May. 2016 Banxico is Managing the Peso, Not the Business Cycle, For Now (Publication Centre)

Banxico's quarterly inflation report, released last week, underscored concerns over growth as well as the weakness of the MXN and the risks p osed by the Fed's imminent tightening. Policymakers downgraded Mexico's GDP forecast for 2017 to 2.3-to-3.3% year-over-year, from 2.5-to-3.5%. Weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing activity is behind the downshift.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: The rebound is consolidating; expected steady spring/summer sales.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. International Trade, April & Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Little sign of the feared trade hit on Q2 GDP growth, so far.

*April 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

MPC to delay in May due to Q1 GDP and Inflation...Political risks will resurface later this year

18 Jan. 2016 Is it Time to Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater? (Publication Centre)

Investors have endured a severe test of their resolve in the last few months. Global equity markets have sunk more than 10%, eclipsing the previous low in September, and credit spreads have widened. The bears have predictably pounced and, as if the torrid price action hasn't been enough, media headlines have been littered with advice to "sell everything" and warnings of a 75% fall in U.S. and global equities. When "price is news" we recognise that views from well-meaning economists--often using lagging and revised economic data to describe the world--are of little value.

3 December 2018 The Bank of Korea has Come to the End of its Tightening Cycle (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Korea finally pulled the trigger, raising its base rate to 1.75% at its meeting on Friday. After a year of will-they-or-won't-they, five of the Monetary Policy Board's seven members voted to add another 25 basis points to their previous hike twelve months ago.

17 July 2017 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Subdued, Oil is Mainly to Blame (Publication Centre)

Upbeat survey data and relatively resilient consumer spending numbers indicate that the Mexican economy is in good shape, despite a marginal slowdown in most of Q2.

3 May 2017 BanRep Acted Boldly on Friday. Will the BCRP follow Suit Next Week? (Publication Centre)

Colombia's sluggish growth and near-term economic outlook resembles that of most other LatAm economies. Domestic demand is weak, credit conditions are tight, and confidence is depressed. The medium term outlook, however, is perking up, slowly.

3 May 2018 China's PMI Export Orders Paint an Overly Gloomy Picture (Publication Centre)

The forward-looking indices of China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for April attracted more attention than the headline, which was a bit of a non-event; it rose trivially 51.1, from 51.0 in March.

3 May 2017 Fed on Hold Today After Mixed Data, but a June Hike Still Looks Likely (Publication Centre)

The Fed likely will do nothing today, both in terms of interest rates and substantive changes to the statement. We'd be very surprised to hear anything new on the Fed's plans for its balance sheet.

17 June. 2015 Brazilian Retailers Face Tough Times As Consumers Tighten Belts (Publication Centre)

Consumption remains a serious weak spot in Brazil's economic cycle. High inflation, rising interest rates, surging unemployment, plunging confidence, and the government's belt tightening, have trashed Brazilians' purchasing power. Retail sales surprised to the downside in April, falling 0.4% month-to-month, equivalent to a huge 3.5% contraction year-over-year, down from a revised 0.3% gain in March. The underlying trend is awful, as our first chart shows.

17 June 2019 The MPC Won't Strike the Dovish Tone Markets Want to Hear (Publication Centre)

The MPC will have to issue fresh, dovish guidance in order to satisfy markets on Thursday, which now think the Committee is more likely to cut than raise Bank Rate within the next six months.

3 October 2017 BanRep Leaves Rates on Hold, But Further Stimulus Will Come Soon (Publication Centre)

Colombia's Central Bank is facing a short-term test. The recent fall in inflation was interrupted in August--data due on Thursday will show another increase in September--while economic growth, particularly consumption, is struggling, at least for now.

3 April 2019 ADP set to Signal Mean Reversion in Payrolls After Wild Months (Publication Centre)

We see no reason to think that the recent volatility in payrolls--the 311K leap in January, followed by the 20K February gain--will continue.

18 December 2018 The Plunge in Oil Prices Injects Uncertainty into Q4 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

In the wake of last week's strong core retail sales numbers for November, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model for fourth quarter GDP growth shot up to 3.0% from 2.4%.

17 July 2019 Colombia's Outlook is Improving Domestic Demand is Solid (Publication Centre)

May's activity data underline the gradual recovery in Colombia's economic growth, following signs of weakness at the start of the year.

29 April 2019 More Soft Surveys in the EZ, but the Q1 GDP Data Should Be Solid (Publication Centre)

The EZ economic survey data for April were disappointing in our absence.

3 May 2019 Andean Central Bank's Dovish Tone to Continue In Coming Meetings (Publication Centre)

Inflation and growth paths remain diverse across LatAm, but in the Andes, the broad picture is one of modest inflationary pressures and gradual economic recovery.

18 May. 2015 Central Banks in Peru and Chile Will Remain on Hold This Year (Publication Centre)

Chile's Central Bank left its main interest rate unchanged last week at 3.0%, for the seventh month in a row. The press release maintained its neutral tone, as in previous recent meetings, as the BCCh acknowledged that the economy is growing at a moderate pace, with some indicators suggesting less dynamic growth "at the margin".

17 July 2018 External Threats and Domestic Woes Will Limit LatAm's Recovery (Publication Centre)

External conditions are becoming more demanding for LatAm economies, with global trade tensions intensifying in recent weeks.

3 Dec. 2015 Yellen Throws Down the Gauntlet, But Gently, Leaving Get-Outs (Publication Centre)

Short of saying "We're going to hike rates in two weeks' time", Dr. Yellen's view of the immediate economic and policy outlook, set out in her speech yesterday, could hardly have been clearer. Yes, she threw in the usual caveats: "...we take account of both the upside and downside risks around our projections when judging the appropriate stance of monetary policy", and saying the FOMC will have to evaluate the data due ahead of this month's meeting, but her underlying message was straightforward.

3 Sept. 2015 Trade Deficit Likely Dropped in July, but Q3 Picture Still Unclear (Publication Centre)

The July trade deficit likely fell significantly further than the consensus forecast for a dip to $42.2B from $43.8B in June, despite the sharp drop in the ISM manufacturing export orders index. Our optimism is not just wishful thinking on our p art; our forecast is based on the BEA's new advance trade report. These data passed unnoticed in the markets and the media. The July report, released August 28, wasn't even listed on Bloomberg's U.S. calendar, which does manage to find space for such useless indicators as the Challenger job cut survey and Kansas City Fed manufacturing index. Baffling.

17 January 2019 Rising Services Inflation Matters More than the Falling Headline Rate (Publication Centre)

The most eye-catching aspect of December's consumer prices report was the pick-up in core inflation to 1.9%, from 1.8% in November, above the no-change consensus.

01 Feb. 2016 Inflation Data Indicate Bund Buyers Should Exercise Caution (Publication Centre)

Investors were presented with a barrage of mixed EZ economic data on Friday, fighting for attention amid markets celebrating the arrival of negative interest rates in Japan. Advance Eurozone CPI data gave some respite to the ECB, with inflation rising to 0.4% year-over-year in January from 0.2% in December.

3 January 2018 Synchronized Recovery in the Andes. Inflation Continues to Fall (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent weeks have confirmed that the Andean economies retained a degree of momentum in Q4, with inflation well under con trol.

3 July 2019 ADP Set for Clear Rebound, but it Likely will Understate Payrolls (Publication Centre)

Today brings an array of economic data, including the jobless claims report, brought forward because July 4 falls on Thursday.

29 June 2018 Surveys Continue to Weaken the Case for a Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

Surveys released yesterday failed to support the MPC's view that the economy has bounced back in Q2.

29 June 2017 GDP Seasonal Adjustment Problems Persist, a Fix is Promised in July (Publication Centre)

The third estimate of first quarter GDP growth, due today, will not be the final word on the subject. Indeed, there never will be a final word, because the numbers are revised indefinitely into the future.

30 January 2019 A Mixed Bag of PMI Readings in China won't Put Off Fresh Stimulus (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs for January, due out tomorrow, will give the first indications of how the economy started the year.

30 January 2019 Did the "Yellow Vests" Ruin French GDP Growth in Q4? (Publication Centre)

Today's barrage of data kicks off a couple of busy days in the Eurozone economic calendar.

30 May 2017 BanRep Turns Cautious, but Expect Further Cuts as Activity will be Weak (Publication Centre)

BanRep cut Colombia's key interest rate by 25 basis points last Friday, to 6.25%. We were expecting a bolder cut, as economic activity has been under severe pressures in recent months.

17 October 2018 Did FOMC Members Discuss Rising R-star at the September Meeting (Publication Centre)

The median of FOMC members' estimates of longer run nominal r-star--the rate which would maintain full employment and 2% inflation--nudged up by a tenth in September to 3.0%, implying real r-star of 1%.

30 June. 2016 Political Vacuum in the U.K. Prompts the EU to Up the Pressure (Publication Centre)

Leaders of the major Eurozone economies were in no mood to give concessions as they met with outgoing U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron this week for the first time since the referendum. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that she sees "no way back from the Brexit vote." This followed comments that the U.K. couldn't be expected to "cherry-pick" the EU rules that it would like to follow after a new deal.

30 June 2017 China's Government Still has Room to Clean up, but what if they Balk? (Publication Centre)

In the yesterday's Monitor, we presented an exagerated upper-bound for China's bad debt problem, at 61% of GDP. The limitations of the data meant that we double-counted a significant portion of non-financial corporate--NFC--debt with financial corporations and government.

3 January 2019 China's PMIs Deteriorate What are the Positives Amid the Gloom (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI doused hopes of turning over a January new leaf; it dropped to 49.7 in November, from 50.2 in December.

1 December 2017 Will the Improvement in Brazil's External Accounts Continue? (Publication Centre)

External conditions continue to favour Brazil. The recovery in domestic demand in the world's major economies, particularly the rebound in business investment, has driven a gradual revival of global exports.

29 May 2018 A Peek into the Abyss of an Italian Parallel Currency and Euro Exit (Publication Centre)

We have to hand it to Italy's politicians. In an economy with a current account surplus of 3% of GDP, a nearly balanced net foreign asset position and with the majority of government debt held by domestic investors, the leading parties have managed to prompt markets to flatten the yield curve via a jump in shortterm interest rates.

3 June 2019 Headline and Core Inflation in the Eurozone Fell Sharply in May (Publication Centre)

Last week's May CPI data in the major EZ economies all but confirmed the story for this week's advance estimate for the euro area as a whole.

17 March 2017 February's Manufacturing Data Flattered by Warm Weather? (Publication Centre)

The latest survey evidence strongly supports our view that momentum is building in the industrial economy, but the official production data continue to lag. Yesterday's March Philly Fed survey was remarkably strong, with the correction in the headline sentiment index -- inevitable, after February's 33-year high -- masking increases in all the subindexes.

17 February 2017 Retail Sales Likely got off to a Soft Start This Year (Publication Centre)

Today's official retail sales figures look set to show that consumers tightened their purse strings at the start of this year, following last year's spending spree. We think that retail sales volumes rose by just 1.0% month-to-month in January; that would be a poor result after December's 1.9% plunge. Surveys of retailers have been weak across the board. The reported sales balance of the CBI's Distributive Trade Survey collapsed to -8 in January, from +35 in December. The balance is notoriously volatile, but the 43-point drop is the largest since the survey began in 1983.

17 January 2017 Peru's Growth is Solid, Will Copper Prices Offer More Support in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic activity data from Peru signalled that the relatively firm business cycle continues. The monthly GDP index accelerated to 3.6% year-over-year in November, rising from 2.1% in October, but marginally below the 4.4% on average in Q3. Growth continued to be driven by mining output, including oil and gas, which rose 15% year-over- year. The opening of several new mines explains the upturn, and we expect the sector to remain key for the Peruvian economy this year.

30 April 2018 Q1 Slowdown Confirmed in the EZ, but Don't Push the Panic Button (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance GDP data provided the first solid evidence of a Q1 slowdown in the euro area economy.

18 July 2019 Construction in the EZ Slowed in Q2, Denting GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data provided further evidence that GDP growth in the EZ economy slowed in Q2.

3 September 2018 The ECB is Fighting an Uphill Battle to Push Core Inflation to 2% (Publication Centre)

We are all for ambitious economic targets, but the ECB's pledge to drive EZ core inflation in the Eurozone up to "below, but close to" 2% is particularly fanciful.

3 June. 2015 Inflation is rising, but the ECB will confirm its dovish stance today (Publication Centre)

In yesterday's Monitor, we laid out the macroeconomic case for moderately higher inflation in the second half of the year. But subdued market based inflation expectations indicate that the ECB will retain its dovish bias for now. The central bank's preferred measure, 5-year/5-year forward inflation expectations, have only increased modestly in response to QE, and have even declined recently on the back of higher market volatility.

29 May 2019 Consumer and Business Confidence Show Diverging Responses to Brexit (Publication Centre)

May's E.C. Economic Sentiment survey was a blow to hopes that the six-month stay of execution on Brexit would facilitate a recovery in confidence.

18 Apr. 2016 Solid Colombian Manufacturing Sector Offsetting Soft Demand (Publication Centre)

Colombia's economic activity surprised to the upside in February, despite the challenging domestic environment. Private spending rose more than expected, but leading indicators suggest that household consumption will remain weak in Q2. Retail sales jumped 4.6% year-over-year in February, up from a 2.1% increase in January, and the fastest pace since August 2015.

1 Dec. 2015 The Real Net Trade Drag on U.K. Growth is Still to Come (Publication Centre)

It's tempting to conclude from the third quarter's GDP figures, which showed output rising 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, despite a record drag from net trade, that the U.K. economy is comfortably weathering sterling's appreciation. But a closer look at the data shows the net trade drag is the counterparty to some erratic inventory movements. The real net trade hit is still to come.

30 May 2017 Should Investors Start to Fear a Hung Parliament? (Publication Centre)

The Conservatives' opinion poll rating has fallen dramatically over the last 10 days or so, pushing sterling down and forcing investors to confront the possibility that Theresa May might not increase her majority much from the current paltry 17 MPs.

17 Feb. 2016 Behind Utility-Hit Headlines, the Industrial Sector is Growing, Jus (Publication Centre)

If the collapse in oil sector capex and the strong dollar were going to push the industrial economy into recession, it probably would have started by now

30 Jan. 2015 Plunging Oil Prices Boost Chile's Consumers - Businesses Still Weak (Publication Centre)

Chile's economy is showing the first reliable signs of improvement, at last. December retail sales rose 1.9% year-over-year, up from 0.4% in November, indicating that household expenditure is starting to revive, in line with a pick-up in consumer confidence and the improving labor market.

17 July 2017 CPI Inflation Likely Held Steady in June, but will Exceed 3% Soon (Publication Centre)

Economists are divided evenly on whether Tuesday's consumer price figures will show that CPI inflation held steady at 2.9% or edged down to 2.8% in June.

26 January 2017 Will Today's Data Shift Fourth Quarter GDP Growth Forecasts? (Publication Centre)

Three of today's economic reports, all for December, could move the needle on fourth quarter GDP growth. Ahead of the data, we're looking for growth of 1.8%, a bit below the consensus, 2.2%, and significantly weaker than the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, which projects 2.8%.

20 July. 2016 Venezuela's Crisis is Escalating, Made Worse by Low Oil Prices (Publication Centre)

Venezuela is on the brink o f economic and social collapse. Looting, food scarcity, power rationing, and other problems have become rampant. This week, Venezuela's government allowed citizens to flock across the Colombian border to shop for food and medicine, for the second time this month. Last year, Venezuela's President Maduro shut the border in a bid to crack down on smuggling of subsidized products.

20 June 2017 Brazil's Recovery Continues, but Politics have Harmed its Prospects (Publication Centre)

Economic data released in recent weeks underscore that Brazil emerged from recession in Q1, but the recovery is fragile and further rate cuts are badly needed. The political crisis has damaged the reform agenda, and political uncertainty lingers.

20 June 2019 A Slowdown in Construction Will Weigh on EZ GDP Growth in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data added further evidence that GDP growth in the EZ will slow in Q2.

24 July 2019 If a Downturn Materialises, Households Will Feel its Full Force (Publication Centre)

Our base case remains that the slowdown in quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to about zero in Q2 is just a blip, and that the economy will regain momentum in Q3 and sustain it well into 2020.

24 June 2019 External Threats are Easing, Can Banxico Adopt a Dovish Tone? (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days confirm the story of a struggling economy and falling inflation pressures in Mexico, strengthening our forecast of interest rate cuts over the second half of the year.

24 Mar. 2016 Mexico's Domestic Sector Still Resilient - a Good Start to the Year (Publication Centre)

Mexico's CPI rose just 0.1% in the first half of March, due to higher core prices. The increase was broadbased within this component, with goods prices increasing by 0.2% and core services 0.4%. Core services prices were driven by temporary factors, including vacation packages and higher airfare tickets. Non-core prices, meanwhile, fell 0.5%, due mainly to falling fresh food prices.

20 Jan. 2016 Venezuela Is Collapsing - LatAm's Star--Colombia--Is Merely Slowing (Publication Centre)

Commodity prices have started the year under further downward pressure. This is yet more negative news for LatAm, as most of the countries have failed to diversify, instead relying on oil or copper for a large share of exports and, critically, tax revenue. Venezuela is the biggest loser in the region from the oil hit, and, together with the worsening political and economic crisis, it has pushed the country even closer to the verge of collapse, threatening its debt payments. Venezuela's central bank last week released economic data for the first time since 2014, showing that inflation spiralled to 141% and that the economy shrank 4.5% in the first nine months of last year.

20 June. 2016 Brazil's Macro Conditions are Improving - Rate Cuts During H2? (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession carried over into the beginning of Q2, but with diminishing intensity. The IBC-BR economic activity index, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 5.0% year-over-year in April, up from a revised 6.4% contraction in March. The index's underlying trend has improved in recent months, suggesting that the economy is turning around, slowly.

24 Feb. 2016 Mexico's GDP Slowed in Q4, but Services are Still Resilient (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy slowed marginally in Q4, due mainly to the challenging external environment, but the domestic economy remains relatively healthy. Real GDP rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, following a 0.8% solid expansion in Q3. Year-over-year growth dipped to 2.5% from 2.8%.

23 May 2017 Has the Outlook for Business Investment Brightened? (Publication Centre)

The recent deceleration in households' real spending means that either business investment or net exports will have to pickup if the economy is to avoid a severe slowdown this year.

23 March 2018 Stock up on Chinese-Made T-Shirts, While They're Still Nearly Free (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's announcement that the administration plans to imposes tariffs worth about $60B per year -- thatìs 0.3% of GDP -- on an array of imports of consumer goods from China is a serious escalation.

07 May. 2015 How Far Will Yields Rise When the Activity Data Turn Higher? (Publication Centre)

Along with just about every other commentator and market participant, we have been wondering in recent months how longer Treasuries would react to the Fed starting to raise rates at the same time the ECB and BoJ are pumping new money into their economies via QE.

23 Oct. 2015 BCB Stuck Between Inflation Risks and Deep, Long Recession (Publication Centre)

Brazil economic and political outlook is still opaque, but grim, after a vast array of negative news. Impeachment of President Rousseff remains a possibility; the process of fiscal consolidation is messy and politically bloody; rumors that Finance Minister Levy might leave his post next year have intensified; and the latest data showed that the recession worsened in Q3. As a consequence, the BRL and interest rates have been under pressure and we see no clear signs that the turmoil will ease soon.

24 August 2018 The Glass is Half-Full in the Eurozone PMI Data for August (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI data in the Eurozone economy were a mixed bag.

20 May. 2015 Chile is Recovering, But Colombia Faces Further Near-Term Softness (Publication Centre)

Colombia, the third largest economy in LatAm, has not been immune to the headwinds of the global economy since the financial crisis in 2008, though it remains one of the fastest growing economies in the region. GDP growth slowed sharply to just 1.7% in 2009, but that was still much better than the 1.2% contraction of the region as a whole.

20 February 2018 Everyone is Talking About Current Accounts Again (Publication Centre)

The euro area's current account surplus stumbled at the end of 2017, falling to €29.9B in December from an upwardly-revised €35.0B in November.

24 March 2017 Rapid Disinflation will Allow the BCB to Ease More Quickly (Publication Centre)

Brazil has made a convincing escape from high inflation in the past few months, laying the groundwork for a gradual economic recovery and faster cuts in interest rates. Mid-March CPI data, released this week, confirmed that inflation pressures eased substantially this month.

25 Jan. 2016 Oil Capex Crash Nearly Over - What Happens Next to Consumers? (Publication Centre)

If we had known back in June 2014 that oil prices would drop to about $30, the collapse in capital spending in the oil sector would not have been a surprise. Spending on well-drilling, which accounts for about three quarters of oil capex, has dropped in line with the fall in prices, after a short lag, as our first chart shows. We think spending on equipment has tracked the fall in oil prices, too.

04 Jan. 2016 Uncertainty in Brazil Contrasts With Mexico's Benign Outlook (Publication Centre)

While we were out, Brazil's economic, fiscal and political position continued to deteriorate further. The recession deepened in the fourth quarter, with Brazil's economic activity index surprising yet again to the downside in October, falling for the eight consecutive month. The index fell 0.6% month-to-month and 6.4% year-over-year, the biggest contraction since the index began in 2004. And the prospects for first quarter consumption and industrial output have deteriorated substantially. Unemployment increased further in November, and inflation continues to rise, with the mid-month CPI--the IPCA-15 index-- increasing 1.2% month-to-month in November, after a 0.9% increase in October.

25 February 2019 The IFO is still Bleak, but the German GDP Data are Nuanced (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data in Germany left markets with a confused picture of the Eurozone's largest economy.

25 January 2019 Analysts are too Bearish on Housing, but too Bullish on Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Neither of the major economic reports due today will be published on schedule.

25 June 2018 In the Race to the BoJ's Inflation Target, our Money is on the Glacier (Publication Centre)

Japan's headline inflation will be volatile for the rest of the year, thanks to movements in the noncore elements.

25 June. 2015 Germany Needs Stronger Private Investment to Drive the Recovery (Publication Centre)

The chaos in Greece was identified as the main culprit for yesterday's soft IFO report. The headline business climate index fell to 107.4 in July, down from 108.1 in May, driven by declines in respondents' views on the current economy and their expectations for the future. We expected a dip in the he adline IFO, but we were surprised by the fall in the manufacturing sub-index, given the firmer PMI earlier this week.

25 June 2019 The IFO Signals Slow Q2 GDP Growth in Germany We Believe it (Publication Centre)

The IFO continues to tell a story of a German economy on the ropes.

25 August. 2016 Surging Net Exports Prevented a Q2 GDP Contraction in Germany (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final Q2 GDP report in Germany confirmed the initial data showing that the economy slowed less than we expected last quarter. Real GDP rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, after a 0.7% jump in Q1. The working-day adjusted year-over-year rate fell marginally to 1.8%, from 1.9% in Q1.

2 October 2018 U.S. Manufacturing Outperforms as the Global Cycle Peaks (Publication Centre)

The inevitable--more or less--correction from August's 14-year high is no big deal.

20 Feb. 2015 Colombia's Strong Domestic Activity is Neutralizing Oil Price Hit (Publication Centre)

Colombia's oil industry--one of the key drivers of the country's economic growth over the last decade--has been stumbling over recent months, raising concerns about the country's growth prospects. But the recent weakness of the mining sector is in stark contrast with robust internal demand and solid domestic production.

24 May 2017 FOMC Minutes will Reinforce Skepticism over the Q1 Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The minutes of the May 2/3 FOMC meeting today should add some color to policymakers' blunt assertion that "The Committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory and continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term."

24 May 2018 April's Inflation Data aren't a Blow to August Rate Hike Chances (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation dropped to 2.4% in April, from 2.5% in March, undershooting the no-change consensus and prompting many commentators to argue that the chances of an August rate hike have declined further.

20 Apr. 2015 The Weather was the Big Story in Q1, and the Hit Will Reverse (Publication Centre)

If our inbox is any guide, a significant proportion of investors remain far from convinced that the slowdown in the economy in the first quarter is largely the consequence of the severe weather, with an additional temporary hit to capex from the rollover in the oil sector.

25 Apr. 2016 Brazil is Still Struggling, But Recent Data Are Encouraging (Publication Centre)

Financial market performance and economic survey data on the Brazilian economy have been better than many investors and commentators feared this year. The composite PMI has improved gradually since November last year, consumer sentiment has stabilized, and national business surveys have been less bleak.

24 September 2018 The Prime Minister has Doubled Down on a Weak Hand (Publication Centre)

Theresa May doubled down on her Brexit stance last week, despite European Council President Donald Tusk stating clearly that her proposed framework for economic cooperation "will not work" because it risks undermining the single market.

20 October 2017 Domestic Fundamentals Remain Positive for Brazilian Markets (Publication Centre)

Recent economic indicators in Brazil have undershot consensus in recent weeks, but the economy nonetheless continues to recover.

23 March 2017 February Retail Sales Likely to Confirm Consumer Slowdown (Publication Centre)

Under normal circumstances, we would expect today's retail sales figures to reveal that volumes rebounded in February, following the 2.7% fall over the previous three months. But the continued weakness of spending surveys suggests that we should brace for another soft report.

21 March 2017 Real Wage Growth in the Eurozone is Being Hit by Higher Inflation (Publication Centre)

One of the key characteristics of this euro area business cycle has been near-zero inflation due to structurally weak domestic demand and depressed prices for globally traded goods and commodities. This has supported real incomes, despite sluggish nominal wage growth.

21 March 2018 Fiscal stimulus in the EZ won't cure global imbalances (Publication Centre)

Global current account imbalances are back on the agenda. In the U.S., economic policies threaten to blow out the twin deficit, while external surpluses in the euro area and Asia are rising.

22 Feb. 2016 Colombian Policymakers Borrow Banxico's Bazooka Strategy (Publication Centre)

Colombia's central bank, BanRep, increased the monetary policy rate by 25bp to 6.25% on Friday, as expected, and also announced budget cuts and a new FX strategy to try to protect the COP. These measures are similar to those taken by Banxico on Wednesday. The press release, and the tone of the conference after the decision, suggest that more hikes are coming.

22 January 2019 Chinese GDP Growth was Much Weaker than the Headlines Suggest (Publication Centre)

Chinese GDP numbers always require a great deal of detective work, and yesterday's needed more than the norm; multiple rounds of revisions needed decoding.

22 January 2019 The Prime Minister's Plan B Has Little Chance of Success (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister has revealed that her Plan B for Brexit is to get Eurosceptics within the Tory party on side in an attempt to show the E.U. that a deal could be done if the backstop for Northern Ireland was amended. Her plan is highly likely to fail, again.

21 July. 2016 The Retail Sales Surge Likely Met an Abrupt End in June (Publication Centre)

Household spending has been the sole source of growth in the economy so far this year, amid worsening investment and net trade. Today's official retail sales figures, however, look set to show that consumers suffered the Brexit blues in June.

22 July 2019 The Fed's Friday Pushback Against 50bp Makes Sense it's Too Much (Publication Centre)

With Fed officials now in pre-FOMC meeting blackout mode, this week will not bring a repeat of Friday's confusion, when the New York Fed felt obligated to issue a clarification following president William's speech on monetary policy close to the zero bound.

05 October. 2016 Weakness in Brazil Industrial Production will be Temporary (Publication Centre)

The outlook for Brazil's industrial economy is better than at any time since before the crisis. But data released this week highlighted that the recovery will be slow and bumpy.

06 May. 2015 Latest Data Enhances Divergent Activity Trends in LatAm (Publication Centre)

Mexican manufacturing sector kicked off the year on a soft note, due mainly to the sharp drop in oil prices, and the sharp weather-induced slowdown in the U.S. Mexico's northern neighbor is its largest trading partner, by far, accounting for about 85% of total exports last year and close to 80% of total non-oil exports.

21 Sept. 2015 Fed Delays Interest Rate Liftoff - LatAm Breathes a Sigh Of Relief (Publication Centre)

The Fed deferred, but did not cancel, the start of its rate normalization last week. As a consequence, December is now the most likely meeting for the first hike. The Fed's core view of the U.S. economy remains the same, but policymakers want a bit more time to see how global developments affect the U.S. Our Chief Economist, Ian Shepherdson, expects the strength of the employment data, better Chinese numbers and calm financial markets to prevent any further postponement beyond Q4.

21 September 2018 Brazilian Policymakers Start to Open the Door for Rate Hikes (Publication Centre)

Brazil's domestic economic outlook has not changed much recently.

21 October. 2016 Government Spending Higher Next Year? (Publication Centre)

It has become pretty clear over the past couple of weeks that Hillary Clinton will be the next president, so it's now worth thinking about how fiscal policy will evolve over the next couple of years.

21 Oct. 2015 Recovery Won't Shrug Off The Fiscal Squeeze (Publication Centre)

The conventional wisdom that the U.K. economy will comfortably weather the coming fiscal squeeze is misplaced. The planned adjustment is large, designed to minimise its political, not economic, impact, and based on overly optimistic assumptions. What's more, the economy is in many respects less well-placed to cope with the tightening than when the previous government applied the fiscal brakes. And when the recovery slows, the Chancellor is less likely to change tack and ease the squeeze this time.

21 May 2019 The Money Supply is a Poor Guide to U.S. Growth it's Different in Europe (Publication Centre)

We have been asked recently why we rarely talk about the signal from the U.S. money supply numbers, in contrast to the emphasis we give to real M1 growth in our forecasts for economic growth in both the Eurozone and China.

21 Oct. 2015 Colombia Resilient in the Face of External Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Colombia's industrial and retail sectors surprised to the upside in August, suggesting that the domestic economy has been resilient during most of the third quarter, despite the hit from an array of external headwinds. Industrial production increased by a solid 2.6% year-over-year in August, up from an upwardly revised 0.6% expansion in July, and above its recent trend. In the first half of the year, industrial activity fell on average by 1.1%, the worst performance since 2013, due mainly to the oil hit and ex tended works at Reficar, the country's second biggest oil refinery. But Colombia's manufacturers appear to have shrugged off part of the oil pain in recent months.

22 June 2017 Are we headed toward an extension of the U.K.'s EU membership? (Publication Centre)

The EU has had a better start to the Brexit negotiations than its counterpart across the Channel. The risk of disagreement within the EU on the details with of the U.K.'s exit is high, but the Continent has presented a united front so far, mainly because Mr. Macron and Mrs. Merkel agree on the broad objectives. They have no interest in punishing the U.K., but they are also keen to show that exiting the EU has costs for a country which leaves.

06 October. 2016 ISM Rebound Points to Stronger Payrolls Later in the Fall (Publication Centre)

The huge rebound in September's ISM non- manufacturing survey, reported yesterday, strongly supports our view that the August drop was more noise than signal.

23 Jan. 2015 Brazil Continues to Combat Expectations for Surging Inflation (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank is finally decisively facing its demon, persistently high inflation. The eight-member policy board, known as Copom, decided unanimously on Wednesday to increase the Selic rate by 50bp to 12.25%, the highest level in more than three years, in line with the consensus.

23 Feb. 2015 Mexico's GDP Rising at the Fastest Pace in Two Years - More to Come? (Publication Centre)

Punished by the global economic slowdown depressing commodity prices, the Mexican economy is now making a gradual comeback, thanks to the continuing strength of its main trading partner, increasing public expenditure on key infrastructure projects, and accommodative monetary policy.

23 August. 2016 Mexico Struggled at the end of the First Half - Will it Rebound? (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy shrank by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, according to the final GDP report, a tenth better than the preliminary reading. The year-over-year rate rose marginally to 2.5% from 2.4% in Q1. But the year-over-year data are not seasonally adjusted, understating the slowdown in the first half of the year, as shown in our first chart.

23 January 2018 Unemployment in Mexico Close to Cyclical Lows, Despite Rising Risks (Publication Centre)

High inflation and interest rates, coupled with increasing uncertainty, both economic and political, put Mexican consumption under strain last year.

23 January 2019 Unemployment in Mexico Ended Q4 Badly Uncertainty is Biting (Publication Centre)

We expect the Mexican economy to continue growing close to 2% year-over-year in 2019, driven mainly by consumption, but constrained by weak investment, due to prolonged uncertainty related to trade.

23 Mar. 2015 Manufacturing remains the key driver of the EZ business cycle (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy is becoming increasingly service-oriented. The private services sector has contributed just over 50% of gross value added-- GVA -- in the past three years, up from 44% in the seven years before the crash of 2008.

23 June 2017 Fed Officials Cite "Full Employment" but Worry About Recent CPI Data (Publication Centre)

A couple of Fed speakers this week have described the economy as being at "full employment". Looking at the headline unemployment rate, it's easy to see why they would reach that conclusion.

23 April 2018 Don't Shoot the Messenger for Spelling Out What Q1's Data Imply (Publication Centre)

The Governor's comments late last week successfully recalibrated markets, which had concluded that a May rate hike was virtually certain, despite the MPC's deliberately vague guidance.

23 April 2018 Japan's Inflation Faces Near-Term Headwinds, but Core Will Trend up (Publication Centre)

Japan's headline CPI inflation is set to edge down in coming months, thanks to non-core prices.

22 May 2018 Retail Sales Likely Recovered in April, but the Trend Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

April's retail sales figures, due Thursday, likely will show that spending recovered from snow-induced weakness in March.

22 May 2018 Maduro Wins Bogus Presidential Election, what will Happen Next? (Publication Centre)

President Nicolás Maduro has "won' another six-year term, as expected, even as millions of Venezuelans boycotted the election.

22 May 2018 The Quiet and Good life in Spain (Publication Centre)

The Spanish economy has been living a quiet life recently, amid markets' focus on political risks in Italy and manufacturing slowdowns in Germany and France.

22 May 2019 How Much Attention is the Fed Paying to the Trimmed Mean PCE (Publication Centre)

Fed policymakers surprised no one with their May 1 statement, which acknowledged the surprisingly "solid " Q1 economic growth--at the time of the March 19-to-20 meeting, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model suggested Q1 growth would be just 0.6%--but stuck to its view that low inflation means the FOMC can be "patient".

21 August. 2015 Mexico's Domestic Recovery Remains - But Oil Woes Continue (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy had a decent start to the year thanks to resilient domestic demand, but hampered by the rollover in capital spending in the oil sector and the slowdown in manufacturing activity. Economic activity expanded 2.2% year-over-year in the second quarter, down from 2.6% in the first quarter, but the underlying trend remains reasonably solid.

23 April 2018 German Producer Price Inflation is Turning Up, Slowly (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data suggest that the downtrend in German PPI inflation is reversing.

2 May 2017 Can Sterling's Recovery Gather More Momentum? (Publication Centre)

Sterling continued to recover last week, hitting its highest level against the dollar since October, despite a series of data releases indicating that the economy is losing momentum. Indeed, sterling was unscathed by the news on Friday that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth slowed to just 0.3% in Q1, from 0.7% in Q4.

25 May 2018 Brazil's Inflation Remains Low, Mexico's GDP Brings Positive News (Publication Centre)

In a relatively light week in terms of economic indicators in Brazil, the inflation numbers and the potential effect of the recent BRL sell-off garnered all the attention.

27 Mar. 2015 Banxico Still Eyeing a Rate Hike After the Fed Moves in June (Publication Centre)

This week's economic data for the Mexican economy have been encouraging, especially for Banxico, which left its main interest rate unchanged yesterday at 3.0%. Inflation remained on target for the second consecutive month in the first half of February, and the closely-watched IGAE economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--continued to grow at a relatively solid pace, despite the big hit from lower oil prices.

27 June. 2016 Brexit Constrains Fed, but Limited U.S. Fallout Means December is Live (Publication Centre)

By the close on Friday, the initial reaction in U.S. markets to the U.K. Brexit vote could be characterized as a bad day at the office, but nothing worse. Not a meltdown, not a catastrophe, no exposure of suddenly dangerous fault lines.That's not to say all danger has passed, but the first hurdle has been overcome.

27 June 2019 Orders, Trade and Inventory Data Suggest Q2 Growth Headed for 21⁄4% (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's raft of data had no net impact on our forecast for second quarter GDP growth, which we still think will be about 21⁄4%.

27 March 2018 A Good Start to Q1 for Mexico and Colombia, Fears are Easing (Publication Centre)

Recent upbeat economic reports have mitigated the downside risks we had been flagging to our growth forecast for Mexico for the current quarter.

27 March 2019 Part Two Q&A from our Meetings Last Week RMB Stability (Publication Centre)

The main thing on investors' minds is how much more pain the global economy has to take as a result of China's slowdown.

27 October 2017 Third Quarter Growth Should be Solid, Despite the Hurricanes (Publication Centre)

We expect today's first estimate of third quarter GDP growth to show that the economy expanded at a 2.4% annualized rate over the summer.

03 Feb. 2016 Industrial Output Dived in Q4, But Reasons For Optimism in Brazil? (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic news this week remained bleak at the headline level, but some of the details were less terrible in than in recent months. Industrial production fell by a worse-than-expected 11.9% year-over-year in December, marginally up from the 12.4% drop in November.

19 June 2017 Don't be Deceived by Jumping EZ Car Sales, Momentum is Slowing (Publication Centre)

Demand for new cars in the Eurozone rebounded last month. New car registrations jumped 10.3% year-over-year in May, reversing the 5.1% decline in April. The headline was boosted by solid growth in all the major economies.

27 Jan. 2016 Will Mexico's Household Spending Remain the Bright Spot in 2016? (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy continues to bring good news, despite the tough external environment for all EM economies. According to the economic activity index, a monthly proxy for GDP, growth gained further momentum in Q4. Activity rose 2.7% year-over-year in November, supported by stronger services activities, which expanded 0.3% month-to-month. The services sector has been the main driver of the current cycle, growing 3.8% year-over-year in November, bolstering our optimism about the domestic economy in the near-term.

26 September. 2016 Mexico's Consumers Spent Freely in July, But Momentum Is Slowing (Publication Centre)

Mexican consumers started the third quarter strongly, supporting our relatively upbeat view for the economy in the near term. Private consumption represents about 70% of Mexico's GDP, one of the consumption shares in the EM world, so the strength of spending is hugely important.

26 September 2017 Brazil's Labor Market is on the Mend, But Challenges Persist (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian labour market is slowly healing following the severe recession of 2015-16. The latest employment data, released last week, showed that the economy added 35K net jobs in August, compared to a 34K loss in August 2016.

27 Apr. 2016 Services Driving Mexico's Growth, Despite Many Obstacles (Publication Centre)

Mexico's National Institute of Statistics--INEGI-- will release preliminary GDP data for Q1 on Friday. We are expecting good news, despite the tough external and domestic environment. According to the economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP-- growth gained further momentum in Q1, based on data up to February.

27 August. 2015 Mr. Praet's Dovish Comments Don't Signal Easing Next Week (Publication Centre)

ECB board member Peter Praet fired the first shot across the markets' bow yesterday following this week's turmoil. Speaking to journalists in Germany, Mr. Praet noted "increased downside risk of achieving a sustainable inflation path towards 2%," and assured investors the current QE program is fully flexible, and can be readily adjusted in response to an adverse development in inflation expectations. We don't think, though, this is a pre -cursor for additional easing at next week's ECB meeting.

27 Jan. 2016 Remortgaging Won't Be So Supportive of Growth This Year (Publication Centre)

The fall in the cost of new secured credit has played a key role in reinvigorating the economy over the last couple of years. Mortgage interest payments were 3.7% lower in Q3 than in the same quarter a year previously, even though the stock of secured debt was 2% larger. As a result, the percentage of household disposable incomes taken up by mortgage interest payments fell to 4.8% in the third quarter of 2015--the lowest proportion since records began in 1987--from 5.2% a year before.

27 February 2019 What to Expect from China's Annual "Two Sessions" Next Week (Publication Centre)

China's annual "two sessions" conference is due to start on Sunday, with the economic targets for this year set to be made official over the course of the meetings.

28 Apr. Don't Pin Your Hopes on a Post-Referendum Rebound (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 reflects more than just Brexit risk. The intensifying fiscal squeeze, the uncompetitiveness of U.K. exports, and the lack of spare labour suggest that the U.K.'s recovery now is stuck in a lower gear.

28 August 2018 Mexico Struggled at the End of the First Half Will it Rebound (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy shrank by 0.2% quarter- on-quarter in Q2, according to the final GDP report, a tenth worse than the preliminary reading.

28 March 2017 Andes' Countries Hit by Temporary Shocks, Monetary Policy to Help (Publication Centre)

Recent data have confirmed that Colombian economic activity is still fragile, and that downside risks increased in Q1 as oil prices hav e slipped. The ISE economic activity index rose just 1.0% year-over-year in January, down from a 1.6% average gain in Q4.

19 Aug 2019 The Intensification of the Trade War Forces Rate Cuts in LatAm (Publication Centre)

While we were away, EM growth prospects and risk appetite deteriorated significantly, due mainly to rising geopolitical risks, weaker economic prospects for DM, and, in particular, the most recent chapter of the global trade war.

19 December 2016 Banxico Defies Expectations with a Bold Pre-emptive Rate Increase (Publication Centre)

Banxico delivered its fifth 50bp rise of 2016 last Thursday, taking Mexico's main interest rate to 5.75%, its highest level since early 2009. Markets expected a 25bp increase, not least because the MXN has been relatively stable since Banxico's previous meeting in November.

28 May 2019 Brazil's Inflation Remains Benign, Mexico's GDP Brings Bad News (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic prospects continue to deteriorate rapidly, due to a combination of rising political uncertainty, the failure of the new government to advance on reforms, and ongoing external threats.

28 Oct. 2015 Domestic Data Point to Robust Third Quarter Growth in Mexico (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy is recovering gradually, despite many external headwinds. This week, the IGAE economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--rose a solid 2.6% year-over-year in August, up from 2.0% in July. In the first half the economy grew on average 2.4%. The report showed increases in all three sectors, most notably agriculture, up 8.2% year-over-year, followed by services, 3.3%, and industrial activities, with a 1.0% gain.

28 September 2018 Confidence is Starting to Fray as the Brexit Deadline Nears (Publication Centre)

The persistence of no-deal Brexit risk has taken a toll on confidence across the economy over the last month.

18 September 2017 How it Could all go Wrong for U.S. Markets, and Quickly (Publication Centre)

For the record, we think the Fed should raise rates in December, given the long lags in monetary policy and the clear strength in the economy, especially the labor market, evident in the pre-hurricane data.

1 August 2018 Mexico's Q2 GDP Dips, Due to Weakness in the Industrial Sector (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of Q2 GDP in Mexico confirmed that the economy lost momentum in recent months.

19 December 2018 The Eurozone's German Engine Room is Slowing Steadily (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO data in Germany heaped more misery on the Eurozone economy.

19 February 2018 EZ Construction Slowed in H2 2017, but Will Pick Up Soon (Publication Centre)

Data today will show that the EZ construction sector finished 2017 on a decent note.

19 February 2019 Brazil's Momentum Slowed in Q4, but it Will Rebound Soon (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively soft footing.

19 Feb. 2016 Weak Manufacturing is a Serious Problem, for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing does not consistently lead the rest of the economy. Neither does it consistently lag. On average, turning points in the rates of growth of manufacturing output and GDP are coincident, as our first chart clearly shows. But coincidence is not causality.

28 February 2017 The Eurozone Business Cycle Upturn is Resilient and Robust (Publication Centre)

Money supply dynamics in the Eurozone continue to signal a solid outlook for the economy. Headline M3 growth eased marginally to 4.9% year-over-year in January, from 5.0% in December; the dip was due to slowing narrow money growth, falling to 8.4% from 8.8% the month before. The details of the M1 data, however, showed that the headline chiefly was hit by slowing growth in deposits by insurance and pension funds.

28 February 2019 The Probable Delay to Brexit Makes a Q3 Rate Hike a Closer Call (Publication Centre)

We have no choice but to revise down our forecast for GDP growth in Q2, now that the threat of a no-deal Brexit likely will hang over the economy beyond March, probably for three more months.

28 February 2019 Expect Underwhelming Q4 GDP Growth Data Today Q1 Likely Worse (Publication Centre)

We expect to learn today that the economy expanded at a 2.1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, slowing from 3.4% in the third.

26 October 2018 It Would Take a Lot to Turn the ECB Away from Ending QE in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The ECB kept its cool yesterday, at the headline level, amid crashing stock markets, volatile BTPs and souring economic data.

26 October 2018 Inventories and Consumption Drove up Q3 Growth Q4 will be Slower (Publication Centre)

We have tweaked our third quarter GDP forecast in the wake of the September advance international trade and inventory data; we now expect today's first estimate to show that the economy expanded at a 4.0% annualized rate.

26 February 2018 Inflation in Mexico is Starting to Fall Rapidly, but Banxico will Hike in April (Publication Centre)

Mexico's inflation is finally falling, giving policymakers room for manoeuvre.

2 January 2019 China to Turn up the Stimulus in 2019, but Constraints Remain (Publication Centre)

At the end of last year, China's Central Economic Work Conference set out the lay of the land for 2019. Cutting through the rhetoric, we think the readout implies more expansionary fiscal policy, and a looser stance on monetary policy.

26 August. 2015 Sharp Swings In LatAm Markets Highlights Their Vulnerabilities (Publication Centre)

LatAm currencies and stock markets have suffered badly in recent weeks, but Monday turned into a massacre with the MSCI stock index for the region falling close to 4%. Markets rebounded marginally yesterday, but remain substantially lower than their April-May peaks. Each economy has its own story, so the market hit has been uneven, but all have been battered as China's stock market has crashed. The downward spiral in commodity prices--oil hit almost a seven-year low on Monday--is making the economic and financial outlook even worse for LatAm.

04 Feb. 2016 Are Jobless Claims Starting to Rise? If so, Where Will They Stop? (Publication Centre)

The pace of layoffs might be picking up. Our first chart looks pretty convincing, but it's much too soon to know for sure. The claims data from mid-December through late January are subject to serious seasonal adjustment problems, partly because Christmas falls on a different day of the week each year and partly because the exact timing of post-holiday layoffs varies from year-to-year.

26 February 2019 A U.S. China Trade Deal is in Sight Trump's Huawei U-Turn is Positive (Publication Centre)

Nothing is done until it's done, and, in the case of Sino-U.S. trade talks, even if a deal is reached, the new normal is that tensions will be bubbling in the background.

2 February 2017 Rising Inflation Expectations to Yield Hawkish Talk from the MPC Today (Publication Centre)

Expectations are running high that the MPC will strike a more hawkish tone today in the minutes of this month's meeting and in the quarterly Inflation Report. Investors are pricing in a 45% chance of the MPC raising interest rates before the end of 2017, up from 30% before the last Report in November.

26 February 2019 The Impending China Trade Deal will Pose Questions for the Fed (Publication Centre)

A trade deal with China is in sight. President Trump tweeted Sunday that the planned increase in tariffs on $200B of Chinese imports to 25% from 10%, due March 1, has been deferred--no date was specified-- in light of the "substantial progress" in the talks.

26 April 2019 First Quarter Growth Likely was Very Respectable, Q2 Should be Good too (Publication Centre)

We're expecting to learn today that the economy expanded at a 2.6% annualized rate in the first quarter, rather better than we expected at the turn of the year--our initial assumption was 1-to-2%--and above the consensus, 2.3%.

26 April 2019 Disinflation Pauses in Brazil and Mexico, Central Banks Sidelined (Publication Centre)

Rising inflation is pressuring some LatAm central banks to take a cautious stance at a time when growth is subpar, particularly in the two biggest economies of the region.

2 Mar. 2015 Falling Confidence, High Inflation, Rising Rates: Brazil in a Mess (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic data last week were appalling. The IPCA-15 price index rose 1.3% month-to-month, the fastest pace in 12 years, pushing the annual rate to 7.4% in mid-February from 6.7% in mid-January,well above the 6.5% upper bound of the BCB's target range.

2 March 2018 Q1 Growth is Set to Disappoint, Again, the Big Picture is Unchanged (Publication Centre)

This week has seen a huge wave of data releases for both January and February, but the calendar today is empty save for the final Michigan consumer sentiment numbers; the preliminary index rose to a very strong 99.9 from 95.7, and we expect no significant change in the final reading.

25 Sept. 2015 Mexico's Recovery Still in Place, And Brazil's Woes Deepening (Publication Centre)

The state of the Mexican economy is still favorable, despite the slowdown over the last few quarters. This week, the IGAE economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--rose 2.0% year-over-year in July, a relatively solid pace, but down from 3.2% in June, and 2.6% in the first half. All these data suggest that economic activity failed to gather momentum at the beginning of Q3 after a disappointing first half of the year.

25 September 2018 A Solid IFO and Mr. Draghi Send Bund Yields Higher (Publication Centre)

The IFO survey signals that markets shouldn't be too downbeat on the German economy, even as it faces uncertainty from global trade tensions.

26 April 2017 Weaker Growth in Tax Receipts Adds to Slowdown Signs (Publication Centre)

March's public sector borrowing figures brought more signs that the economy has lost considerable momentum this year. Borrowing, on the PSNB excluding public sector banks measure, came in at £5.1B in March, up slightly from £4.3B in March 2016.

26 April 2017 Poor Q1 Data Puts Pressure on BanRep to Cut Rates Rapidly (Publication Centre)

Colombia's economy activity is deteriorating rapidly, suggesting that BanRep will have to cut interest rates on Friday. Incoming data make it clear that the economy has moved into a period of deceleration, painting a starkly different picture than a year ago.

2 December. 2016 The Only Surprise this Weekend Would be if Renzi Wins (Publication Centre)

Opinion polls suggest that the Italian population will reject Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's constitutional reform on Sunday. Undecided voters could still swing it in favour of Mr. Renzi, but the "No" votes have led the "Yes" votes by a steady margin of about 52% to 48% since October.

2 December 2016 Copom is Still Cautious but Hints at Larger Cuts, BRL Permitting (Publication Centre)

Copom's meeting was the focal point this week in Brazil. The committee eased by 25bp for the second straight meeting, leaving the Selic rate at 13.75%, and it opened the door for larger cuts in Q1. Rates sat at 14.25% for 15 months before the first cut, in October. In this week's post-meeting statement, policymakers identified weak economic activity data, the disinflation process--actual and expectations--and progress on the fiscal front as the forces that prompted the rate cut.

26 May 2017 First Quarter Growth Set to be Revised up, but Data are Very Flawed (Publication Centre)

We didn't believe the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth, 0.7%, and we won't believe today's second estimate, either. The data are riddled with distortions, most notably the long-standing problem of residual seasonality, which depressed the number by about one percentage point.

26 March 2019 Is a Snap General Election Inevitable? (Publication Centre)

Speculation that another general election is imminent has intensified in recent weeks.

26 March 2019 Banxico's Easing Cycle is Near Inflation is Converging to its Target (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days are confirming the story of a struggling economy and falling inflation pressures in Mexico, strengthening our base case of interest rate cuts over the second half of the year.

26 May. Second Estimate of Q1 GDP to Highlight Brexit Risk Damage (Publication Centre)

This morning's second estimate of Q1 GDP likely will restate the preliminary estimate of a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter rise, confirming that the economic recovery has lost momentum since last year. Meanwhile, the new expenditure breakdown is set to show that growth remained extremely dependent on households and will bring more evidence that businesses held back from investing, ostensibly due to Brexit concerns.

19 Oct. 2015 Slowdown in Store as Fiscal Policy Tightens and Strong Pound Bites (Publication Centre)

A powerful cocktail of cheap money, labour and commodities, allowed to infuse by a hiatus in the government's austerity programme, has reinvigorated the U.K. economy over the last three years. But these supports are now weakening while new headwinds are emerging. The U.K. economy is heading for a pronounced slowdown, one that is under-appreciated by most forecasters and under-priced by markets.

26 Oct. 2015 Mexico's Private Consumption is the Key Driver of the Upswing (Publication Centre)

The tumultuous political and economic crises in Brazil continue to feed off each other, grabbing most of the LatAm headlines. Sentiment will remain depressed, and volatility and uncertainty will persist, hampering any real signs of stabilization in the near-term. The Pacific Alliance countries, by contrast, managed to grow at relatively solid rates during the first half of this year, after absorbing the hit from falling commodity prices.

19 Oct. 2015 Chile Follows its Peers, But the Tightening Cycle Will be Brief (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank, the BCCh, admitted defeat in the face of the inflationary effects of the CLP's depreciation, increasing interest rates by 25bp to 3.25% last Thursday, the first hike since mid-2011. Chile is the third LatAm economy in a month to increase rates in response to currency weakness, despite sluggish economic growth.

26 June 2018 Treat Surveys Pointing to Faster Wage Growth Sceptically (Publication Centre)

This was supposed to be the year that wage growth finally would pick up and signal clearly to the MPC that the economy needs higher interest rates.

26 June 2018 GDP Growth will Slow Sharply in Argentina in the Second Half (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that the Argentinian economy was resilient at the start of the year, but downside risks to growth have increased.

2 Dec. 2015 Brazil's Q3 Data Confirm The Worst Recession On Record (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession is getting uglier. Real GDP in Brazil fell 1.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, much worse than expected, though marginally less terrible than the downwardly revised 2.1% contraction in Q2. Year-over-year, the economy plunged by 4.5% in the third quarter, down from -3.0% in Q2, and -2.5% in the first half. The disappointment was widespread in Q3; though rising mining output was a positive, the underlying trend in mining is still falling. The key story here, though, is that the economy has sunk into its worst slump since the Great Depression.

26 January 2017 GDP Growth Remained Brisk in Q4, but Headwinds are Building (Publication Centre)

Today's preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP likely will show that the Brexit vote has not caused the economy to slow yet. But growth at the end of last year appears to have relied excessively on household spending, which has been increasingly financed by debt. GDP growth likely will slow decisively in Q1 as the squeeze on households' real incomes intensifies.

2 Aug 2019 The BoK Slowly is Setting the Stage for a Quieter Run to the End of 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Korea yesterday laid out its conditions for following July's rate cut with another.

2 April 2019 Recent Data Confirm Argentina's Turnaround, but Politics is a Threat (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that the Argentinian economy finally is stabilizing.

26 June 2017 Keep Calm and Carry On Expecting Further Inaction from the MPC (Publication Centre)

Mark Carney's assertion that "now is not yet the time to raise rates" fell on deaf ears last week. Markets are pricing-in a 20% chance that the MPC will increase Bank Rate at the next meeting on August 3, up from 10% just after the MPC's meeting on June 15, when three members voted to hike rates.

26 June 2017 Equity Markets will Worry if EZ PMIs Fall Further in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone PMIs stumbled at the end of Q2. The composite index slipped to a five-month low of 55.7 in June, from 56.8 in May, constrained by a fall in the services index. This offset a marginal rise in the manufacturing index to a new cyclical high. The dip in the headline does not alter the survey's upbeat short- term outlook for the economy.

29 Apr. 2016 Brazil's Central Bank Lays The Groundwork for a Rate Cut in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's macroeconomic scenario is becoming easier to navigate for the central bank. Both actual inflation and expectations are slowing rapidly, as shown in our first chart. And since the March BCB monetary policy meeting, the BRL has appreciated about 10% against the USD, while commodity prices and EM sentiment have also improved markedly.

31 May 2019 The First GDP Contraction in Brazil Since 2016 Will it Improve (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic recovery faltered in the first quarter and the near-term outlook remains challenging.

7 June 2019 Did Mr. Draghi Inadvertently Snub Expectations for a Q4 Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

It says a lot about investor expectations that markets' reaction to yesterday's policy announcement by the ECB was marked by slight "disappointment," with EURUSD rallying and EZ bond yields rising.

14 August. 2015 Brazil's Weakness Remains - And Mexico Still Eyeing the Fed (Publication Centre)

The macro data reported in Brazil this week added weight to the view that the economy ended the second quarter in a severe recession. Brazil's retail sales fell 0.4% month-to-month in June, the fifth consecutive contraction. The broad retail index, which includes vehicles and construction materials, fell 0.8% month-to-month, with a sharp contraction in auto sales, down 2.8%.

1 March 2017 The Mexican Labor Market is Solid, But it Likely will soon Disappoint (Publication Centre)

Strong fundamentals have supported private consumption in Mexico recently, but we now expect a slowdown. Spending will not collapse, though, because consumer credit growth, formal employment, real wage income and remittances will continue to underpin consumption for the next three-to-six months.

1 March 2018 China PMIs Trend Down but the February Dip is an Overshoot (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs surprised the consensus forecasts to the downside for February. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.3 in February from 51.3 in January, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 54.4 from 55.3 in January.

7 Sept. 2015 Mexico's Recovery In Place But Constrained By External Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Growth momentum in Mexico has improved marginally over the last few months after the soft patch during the first quarter, with business and households gaining confidence in the economic recovery. But the upswing has been rather modest, due to the volatility in global financial markets and the challenging external environment. The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated over recent months due to China's problems, and commodity prices remain under pressure. All these factors are now weighing on investors' confidence and hurting EM across asset classes.

7 June 2017 The Slowing in Consumer Credit Demand is Good News (Publication Centre)

Today's consumer credit report for April likely will show that the stock of debt rose by about $15B, a bit below the recent trend. The monthly numbers are volatile, but the underlying trend rate of increase has eased over the past year-and-a-half, as our first chart shows. The slowdown has been concentrated in the non-revolving component, though the rate of growth of the stock of revolving credit--mostly credit cards--has dipped recently, perhaps because of weather effects and the late Easter.

14 Dec. 2015 Peru's Central Bank Tightens Again to Contain Inflation Pressures (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank, the BCRP, admitted defeat again in the face of the inflationary effects of the PEN's depreciation and El Niño, increasing interest rates by 25bp to 3.75% last Thursday, following its 25bp increase in September. Peru is the third LatAm economy in the last few months to raise rates in response to currency weakness, despite sluggish economic growth. The key problem for Peru is that inflation has been trending higher since early 2013 and has remained stubbornly high, above 2.8% all this year. "Temporary" factors just keep on coming.

7 December 2016 Brazil's Copom is Ready to Act Boldly, but Politics Pose Risks (Publication Centre)

In Brazil, the minutes of the Copom's November meeting, released yesterday, are consistent with our forecast for a 50bp rate cut in January. At its last two meetings, the BCB cut the Selic rate by only 25bp, to 13.75%, amid concerns about services inflation, global uncertainty, and the Fed's likely rate hike next week.

7 Dec. 2015 Mexico's Leading Indicators Point to a Solid Fourth Quarter (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy is not accelerating, but it is holding up well in extremely difficult circumstances for EM. Growth is reasonably healthy, inflation is under control and the labor market is resilient. In short, Mexico is a success story, given the backdrop of plunging oil prices. The contrast with the disaster in Brazil is stark. Last week's survey and hard data continued to tell an upbeat story on Mexico's economy. The IMEF manufacturing index, Mexico's PMI, rose to 52.1 in November up from 51.6 in October, lifted mainly by gains in the employment and deliveries indexes.

7 December 2018 GDP to Stagnate Again in October, but Markets are Braced for the Worst (Publication Centre)

October's GDP report, released on Monday, might just manage to break through the wall of noise coming from parliament ahead of the key Brexit vote on Tuesday.

14 December 2018 Look Behind the Headlines for the Real Retail and Industrial Stories (Publication Centre)

We argued earlier this week that the data on the consumer economy are likely to be rather stronger than the industrial numbers.

7 July. 2016 June ADP Set to be Constrained by Weak May Payroll Data (Publication Centre)

We have argued frequently that the ADP employment report is not a reliable advance payroll indicator--see our Monitor of May 4, for example-- so for now we'll just note that it is generated by a regression model which includes a host of nonpayroll data and the official jobs numbers from the previous month. It is not based solely on reports from employers who use ADP for payroll processing, despite ADP's best efforts to insinuate that it is.

7 September 2017 The ECB will Set up Markets Today for a QE Decision in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Today's ECB meeting will follow the same script as in July. No-one expects the central bank to make any formal changes to its policy settings. The ECB will keep its main refinancing and deposit rates at zero and -0.4%, respectively.

7 September. 2016 How Will the U.K. Resolve the Immigration,Trade Dilemma? (Publication Centre)

Following the summer recess, the U.K. Government has turned to the unenviable task of weighing up how much economic pain to endure in order to reduce immigration. The Government's insistence that Brexit "must mean controls on the numbers of people who come to Britain from Europe" suggests it is prepared to sacrifice access to the single market in order to appease public opinion.

13 June 2018 Is Japan's Consumer Price Index Fit for Purpose? Will the BoJ Change it? (Publication Centre)

For more than two years, the BoJ has fretted, in the outlook for economic activity and prices, that "there are items for which prices are not particularly responsive to the output gap."

8 January 2018 The Labor Market is Still Tightening, Don't Fret over December Payrolls (Publication Centre)

We aren't perturbed by the undershoot in December payrolls, relative both to the October and November numbers and all the leading indicators.

13 June 2017 NFIB Headline Likely to Decay, but Capex and Jobs Readings are Strong (Publication Centre)

Under normal circumstances, we can predict movements in the headline NFIB index from shifts in the key labor market components, which are released a day ahead of the official employment report, and, hence, about 10 days before the full NFIB survey appears.

13 July. 2016 Will Higher Prices for Imports Change Inflation Perceptions? (Publication Centre)

In recent years we have argued consistently that investors and the commentariat overstate the importance of the dollar as a driver of U.S. inflation. Only about 15% of the core CPI is meaningfully affected by shifts in the value of the dollar, because the index is dominated by domestic non-tradable services.

8 January 2019 Bifurcation Intensifying Services Outperforming as Industry Suffers (Publication Centre)

If you need more evidence that the U.S. economy is bifurcating, look at the spread between the ISM non- manufacturing and manufacturing indexes, which has risen to 3.5 points, the widest gap since September 2016.

8 January 2018 Brazil's Industrial Sector and Foreign Trade to Remain Resilient in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Survey data have been signalling a relatively resilient Brazilian economy in the last few months, despite intensified political risk, and hard data are beginning to confirm this story.

8 December. 2016 Will the Fed Move up the Dotplot in Anticipation of Fiscal Easing? (Publication Centre)

We're hearing a good deal of speculation about the dotplot after next week's FOMC meeting, with investors wondering whether the median dot will rise in anticipation of the increased inflation threat posed by substantial fiscal loosening under the new administration. We suspect not, though for the record we think that higher rate forecasts could easily be justified simply by the tightening of the labor market even before any stimulus is implemented.

13 March 2018 Piñera Takes Office in Chile Will he be Able to Deliver on his Promises? (Publication Centre)

The second presidency of Chile's conservative Sebastián Piñera, a billionaire turned politician, began on Sunday, March 11, in favourable economic circumstances.

13 March 2017 Business as Usual for LatAm Central Banks, Despite the Fed Hike (Publication Centre)

The Fed rate hike on Wednesday is fully priced in to LatAm markets, so we expect no significant immediate reaction when the trigger is pulled. But as markets gradually come around to our view that future U.S. rate risk is to the upside, markets will come under renewed pressure.

8 December 2017 Brazil's Central Bank Leaves the Door Open for More Easing in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian central bank cut its benchmark Selic interest rate by 50bp, to 7.0%, on Thursday night and confirmed our view that the end of the easing cycle is not far off.

13 June. 2016 Further Thoughts on May Jobs, and Why June Won't be Great (Publication Centre)

We are still annoyed, for want of a better word, by the May payroll numbers. Specifically, we're annoyed that we got it wrong, and we want to know why. Our initial thoughts centered on the idea that the plunge in the stock market in the first six weeks of the year hit business confidence and triggered a pause in hiring decisions, later reflected in the payroll numbers.

6 June. 2016 Payrolls Will Rebound Over the Summer - Fed to Hike in September (Publication Centre)

We chose last week to ignore the payroll warning signal from the ISM non-manufacturing employment index, which rolled over in January and February, because the danger seemed to have passed. The ISM is not always a reliable indicator--the drop in the index in early 2014 was not replicated in the official data, but the plunge in early 2015 was--and usually it operates with a very short lag, just a month or two.

1 June. 2015 Modest Slowdown Likely Ahead for Consumers' Spending in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Last week's consumption releases were the first data from the real economy in the second quarter. In Germany, retail sales jumped 1.7% month-to-month in April, equivalent to a 1.0% rise year-over-year, an impressive start to the quarter. But our first chart shows that this still points to a moderate slowdown in Q2, consistent with mean-reversion following rapid gains in Q4 and Q1.

5 Oct. 2015 Why are Payroll Gains Slowing When Employers Want to Hire? (Publication Centre)

It is possible that the broad-based softness of September payrolls captures a knee-jerk reaction on the part of employers, choosing to wait-and-see what happens to demand in the wake of stock market correction. But that can't be the explanation for the mere 136K August gain, because the survey was conducted before the market rolled over. Even harder to explain is the hefty downward revision to August payrolls, after years of upward revisions. All is not yet lost for August--the last time the first revision to the month was downwards, -3K in 2010, the second revision was +56K--but we aren't wildly optimistic.

5 March 2019 Simultaneous ISM Declines are Disconcerting, but won't Persist (Publication Centre)

The simultaneous weakening of the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys in recent months is one of the more disconcerting shifts in the recent macro data.

15 August 2017 Weak Q2 for Mexico's Industrial Activity, but What Happens in Q3? (Publication Centre)

Last week's industrial report confirmed that the Mexican economy softened at the end of the second quarter. Industrial production was unchanged year- over-year in June, calendar-and seasonally adjusted, down marginally from +0.1% in May.

15 August 2017 China's Boomlet Causes Volatility for Japan, Second Half to Weaken (Publication Centre)

Japanese real Q2 GDP growth surprised analysts, increasing sharply to a quarterly annualised rate of 4.0%, up from 1.0% in Q1 and much higher than the consensus, 2.5%. But its no coincidence that the jump in Japanese growth follows strong growth in China in Q1.

1 July. 2016 Manufacturing Activity Has Levelled-Off - Better News Ahead (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector is much more exposed to external forces--the dollar, and global growth--than the rest of the economy. But much of the slowdown in the sector over the past year-and-a-half, we think, can be traced back to the impact of plunging oil prices on capital spending in the sector.

5 March 2018 Whatever the Problem is, Tariffs aren't the Answer (Publication Centre)

The apparently imminent imposition of 25% tariffs on imported steel and 10% on aluminum does not per se constitute a serious macroeconomic shock.

15 December 2017 The ECB's forecasts are wishful thinking (Publication Centre)

The ECB did its utmost not to say or do anything remotely novel today. The central bank kept its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged at 0.00% and -0.40%, respectively, and reiterated its plan for QE next year.

5 June 2018. Chile's Recovery Continues, GDP Soared in the First Half of the Year (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirmed the strength of the economic recovery in Chile, and we expect further good news in the next three-to-six months.

15 February 2017 Upward Inflation Trend Still Strong, Despite January's Modest Rise (Publication Centre)

January's CPI inflation of 1.8%, up from 1.6% in December, was one-tenth lower than anticipated by the consensus, the Bank of England and ourselves. The undershoot, however, was entirely due to a pull-back in clothing inflation which is unlikely to be sustained. Price pressures across the rest of the economy have continued to intensify, suggesting that CPI inflation still is on course greatly to exceed the 2% target later this year.

15 February 2017 Poor Brazilian Retail Sales don't Change the Improving Trend (Publication Centre)

Brazil's consumer spending data yesterday appeared downbeat. Retail sales fell 2.1% month-to-month in December, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 4.9%, from -3.8% in November. This is a poor looking headline, but volatility is normal in these data at this time of the year, and the underlying trend is improving.

5 June 2019 EZ Inflation will Fall Further in Q3 but the Core Rate will Rebound (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone tumbled last month, increasing the pressure on Mr. Draghi to deliver another dovish message when the central bank meets on Thursday.

5 June 2019 The Fed will Ease if Trade Makes the Sky Fall in Otherwise, Patience (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell yesterday said about as little as he could without appearing to ignore the turmoil in markets since the President announced his intention to apply tariffs to imports from Mexico: "We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective."

15 Aug 2019 Rising Domestically-Generated Inflation is Tying the MPC's Hands (Publication Centre)

The unexpected rise in CPI inflation to 2.1% in July--well above the Bank of England's 1.8% forecast and the 1.9% consensus--from 2.0% in June undermines the case for expecting the MPC to cut Bank Rate, in the event that a no-deal Brexit is avoided.

15 Apr. 2016 Chile's Central Bank Holds Rates and Relaxes its Tightening Bias (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank left rates unchanged on Tuesday for the fourth consecutive month, as recent data confirmed the sluggish pace of the economic recovery and inflation edges down closer to the target range. In the statement accompanying the decision, the BCCh kept its tightening bias, saying that the normalisation of monetary policy needs to continue at a data-dependent pace, in order to achieve its 3% target.

6 July. 2015 Labor Market is Still Tightening, Despite June Payroll Miss (Publication Centre)

First, a deep breath: June payrolls, with a margin of error of +/-107K, missed the consensus by 10K. Adding in the -60K revisions and the miss is still statistically insignificant. The story, therefore, is that there is no story. Even relative to our more bullish forecast, the miss was just 37K. Nothing bad happened in June. But we hav e to acknowledge that payroll growth has now undershot the pace implied by the NFIB's hiring intentions number--lagged by five months--in each of the past four months. In June, the survey pointed to a 320K jump in private employment, overshooting the actual print by nearly 100K.

6 February 2019 Don't Worry About the Tightening of Bank C&I Lending Standards (Publication Centre)

We are not concerned by the very modest tightening in business lending standards reported in the Fed's quarterly survey of senior loan officers, published on Monday.

14 March 2017 Small Firms are Happy, but When Will Their Capex Plans Pick up? (Publication Centre)

Small businesses remain extremely positive about the economy, but some of the post-election gloss appears to be wearing off. To be clear, the headline composite index of small business sentiment and activity in February, due this morning, will be much higher than immediately before the election, but a modest correction seems likely after January's 12- year high.

6 June. 2016 A New Portuguese Debt Crisis is Unlikely in the Shor t Run (Publication Centre)

The recent deal between Greece and the EU shows that the appetite for a repeat of last year's chaos is low. But investors' attention has turned to whether Portugal is waiting in the wings to reignite the sovereign debt crisis. Complacency is dangerous, but economic data suggest that a Portuguese shock to the Eurozone economy and financial markets is unlikely this year.

14 Mar. 2016 Peru Hold Rates, But Tightening Cycle Hasn't Ended Just Yet (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank, the BCRP, kept borrowing costs at 3.25% last week, surprising the consensus forecast for a 25bp increase. This was an unexpected move because inflation risks have not abated much since the previous meeting, when policymakers lifted rates for the third straight month.

6 Feb. 2015 Chilean Growth Is Improving, But China's Slowdown Is A Worry (Publication Centre)

Chilean GDP growth hit bottom in August, but activity is now picking up and will gather speed over the coming quarters. The tailwinds from lower oil prices and fiscal stimulus will soon be visible in the activity data.

6 December 2017 Don't Take Seriously Surveys Pointing to Faster Q4 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

November's Markit/CIPS surveys for the manufacturing, construction and services sectors suggest that GDP growth is on track to strengthen a touch in Q4.

6 Apr. 2016 Productivity Slowdowns Have Happened Before, and Reversed (Publication Centre)

With only three weeks to go until the release of the initial official estimate of first quarter GDP, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow measure shows growth at just 0.4%. Our own estimate, which includes our subjective forecasts for the missing data--the Atlanta Fed's measure is entirely model-based--is a bit higher, at 1%, and both measures could easily be revised significantly.

6 Aug 2019 How Credible are China's Threats in Response to Trade War Escalation? (Publication Centre)

We've always said that China's first weapon, should the trade war escalate, is to do nothing and allow the RMB to depreciate.

6 August 2018 Don't Worry About July's Payroll Numbers, Trend is Still 200K-plus (Publication Centre)

We are not worried, at all, by the slowdown in headline payroll growth to 157K in July from an upwardly-revised 248K in June.

6 August 2018 July Surveys Point to Below-Trend GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The MPC's view that the economy likely will grow at an above-trend rate over the coming quarters was challenged immediately last week by the PMIs.

8 July. 2016 Muted Headline Inflation in Mexico, but Core has Hit Banxico's Target (Publication Centre)

Favourable inflation conditions in Mexico remain in place with June consumer prices increasing just 0.1% month-to-month, unadjusted, better than expected. A modest gain in core prices was largely offset by falling non-core prices, so year-over-year inflation edged down to 2.5% from 2.6% in May.

8 June. 2015 Inflation improving in key LatAm countries, but risks remain (Publication Centre)

Tomorrow, Mexico's INEGI will release its inflation report for the second half of May, which is of key importance for Banxico's monetary policy. The Bank, in particular governor Agustin Carstens, has said on many occasions that it will watch external conditions and their impact on consumer prices closely. We expect inflation to edge down to 2.9% year-over-year in May, thanks to a 0.1% increase in the second half.

11 January 2017 Black Friday Drove Sales Higher in Brazil, is a Hangover Coming? (Publication Centre)

Brazil's consumer recession finally eased in November. Retail sales jumped 2.0% month-to- month, following an upwardly-revised 0.3% drop in October, and the year-over-year rate rose to -3.5% from -8.1%. November's astonishing performance probably reflects seasonal adjustment problems related to Black Friday discounting. Sales have climbed in the last four Novembers, suggesting that consumers' pre-Christmas spending patterns have shifted permanently.

11 July 2018 Will the Strength of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Recent economic indicators in Mexico have been relatively positive.

11 Jan. 2016 Brazil's Inflation Hits a 13-Year High - Copom Will Hike Again (Publication Centre)

Last week's events highlighted the seriously challenging global environment for LatAm equities and currencies. Trading in Chinese shares was stopped twice early last week, after falls greater than 7% of the CSI 300 index reverberated around the world. Markets were calmer on Friday but the volatility nevertheless reminded investors that LatAm's economies are floating in rough waters and their resilience will be put to the test again this year. The Fed's policy normalization, the unwinding of the leverage in EM, the continued slowdown of the Chinese economy, low commodity prices and currency depreciation are all real threats across the continent.

11 Feb. 2015 Will private investments in France ever pick up? (Publication Centre)

The French industrial sector ended last year on an upbeat note, but the underlying trend in activity is still weak. Industrial production rose 1.5% month-to-month in December, equivalent to a 0.1% fall year-over-year.

11 Feb. 2015 Chile's Outlook Improving Slowly - Oil Price are a Clear Tailwind (Publication Centre)

The resilience and adaptability that the Chilean economy has shown over previous cycles has been tested repeatedly over the last year. Uncertainty on the political front, falling metal prices, and growing concerns about growth in China have been the key factors behind expectations of slowing GDP growth.

11 June 2018 Poor Growth is Keeping Inflation Low, Offsetting FX Pressures (Publication Centre)

Inflation is under control in most LatAm economies, and we expect headline rates to remain close to current levels in the very near term.

11 June 2019 Chile's Central Bank Folded in the Face of the Trade War (Publication Centre)

The border security agreement between the U.S. and Mexico has strengthened hopes that the Sino- U.S. trade war will end soon.

12 December 2018 China's Monetary Conditions are Still Tightening (Publication Centre)

China's M2 growth stabilised in November, at 8.0% year-over-year, matching the October rate.

12 December 2018 Mr. Macron Signals a Policy Shift in France, and for the EZ too? (Publication Centre)

The outlook for the French economy is changing on a daily basis these days.

11 October 2017 Peru's Central Bank Likely Will Ease Tomorrow, but Room has Shrank (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank likely will cut its main interest rate by 25bp to 3.25% on Thursday. Inflation dipped in September and likely will increase only marginally in October, while economic growth was relatively sluggish at the start of Q3.

11 May 2018 Use the Euro to Predict Eurozone Core Inflation at Your Peril (Publication Centre)

The Easter effect depressed services inflation more than markets expected in April, but the main downside surprise was the tepid rebound in non-energy goods inflation.

11 Mar. 2016 Inflation in Brazil Starts to Slow - Better Odds for Rate Cuts in H2 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's headline CPI has been well above the upper limit of the BCB's target zone since January 2015. We expect this situation will continue for some time, due to the lagged effect of last year's sharp increases in regulated prices, El Niño, the BRL's sell-off in 2015, and, especially, widespread price indexation.

11 December 2018 Oil and FX Pass-through to Inflation Are Crosswinds in the Andes (Publication Centre)

The recent FX depreciation and falling oil prices are driving the dynamics of inflation across the Andean economies.

11 December 2018 Macro Data set to Split: Consumer Strength, Industrial Weakness (Publication Centre)

The next few months, perhaps the whole of the first quarter, are likely to see a clear split in the U.S. economic data, with numbers from the consumer side of the economy looking much better than the industrial numbers.

10 July 2018 Will the Government's New Brexit Plans Boost Business Investment? (Publication Centre)

Business investment has held up better than most economists--ourselves included--expected after the Brexit vote.

10 May. Hold Your Nerve on Brexit Risk, Despite Troubling Polls (Publication Centre)

With just over six weeks to go, opinion polls continue to suggest that the E.U. referendum will be extremely close. Noisy interventions in the public debate from the Treasury, independent international bodies, President Obama, and from the Prime Minister again today have had no discernible positive impact on the support for "Bremain" relative to "Brexit"

10 July 2017 Banxico Will Start to Mull Lower Interest Rates Early Next Year (Publication Centre)

Mexico's underlying inflation pressures and financial conditions are gradually stabilizing. Eventually, this will open the door for rate cuts in order to ease the stress on the domestic economy, particularly capex.

10 January 2019 Japanese Households Face Cross-currents Time to Tighten the Belt (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage growth surprised us with a jump to 2.0% year-over-year in December, up from 1.5% in November.

10 April 2019 Brazil's Retail Sector Slowed in Q1 Better Credit Conditions will Help (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic activity data have disappointed in recent months, firming expectations that the Q1 GDP report will show another relatively meagre expansion.

10 April 2017 Falling Unemployment Matters More than the Weather-hit Jobs Number (Publication Centre)

The BLS offered no estimate of the impact on payrolls of the snowstorm which hit the Northeast during the March survey week, but it appears to have been substantial. All the leading indicators pointed to a solid 200K-plus reading, more than double the official initial estimate, 98K.

10 October. 2016 Mexican Consumption is Slowing, as the External Picture Improves (Publication Centre)

Mexican economic growth was subdued during the first half of the year, and we expect it to remain weak over the coming months. The economy has been held back largely by external headwinds, especially low oil prices and disruptions to activity in the US, its main trading partner.

1 September. 2016 Will Construction Rebound in Q3, Despite Weaker Jobs Numbers? (Publication Centre)

Last fall and winter, when the weather was warmer than usual--thanks largely to El Nino--construction employment rocketed. Between October and March, job gains averaged 36K, compared to an average of 20K per month over the previous year. When these strong numbers began to emerge, we expected to see a parallel acceleration in construction spending.

11 April 2018 February Data Likely will Show that the Industrial Revival is Losing Pace (Publication Centre)

Industrial production hit its stride last year, notching up eight consecutive month-to-month gains--the longest run of unbroken growth since May 1994--before a setback in December, which was triggered by the temporary closure of the Forties oil pipeline.

10 September 2018 The Payroll Blip is Over, Expect Further Labor Market Tightening (Publication Centre)

Normal service appears to have resumed in August, with payrolls rising by 201K, very close to the 196K average over the previous year.

10 September 2018 EZ Investment will Slow in Q3, but Consumption Should Pick Up (Publication Centre)

Friday was a busy day in the Eurozone economy. The third detailed GDP estimate confirmed that growth was unchanged at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, pushing the year-over-year rate down by 0.4 percentage points to 2.1%, marginally below the first estimate,2.2%.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI was poised for major disappointment... the trade war impact is clear. Don't be fooled by the relative stability of China's non-manufacturing PMI. Japan's March unemployment uptick was early; April was payback. Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's industrial production ticks up after extreme weakness; don't hold your breath for the recovery. Japan's consumers in poor shape, but maybe it's not that bad. The upswing in Korean industrial production likely to take a breather this month. The BoK holds firm, despite rising calls for a rate cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Both China and U.S. look for good will on opposite side and find none; political and economic constraints will soon kick in. BoJ QE remains neutralised by negative yields

13 April 2017 Slowing Labour Income Growth Highlights Consumers' Woes (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's labour market data showed that growth in households' income has slowed significantly in recent months. Firms are both hiring cautiously and restraining wage increases, due to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook and rising raw material and non-wage labour costs. Consumers' spending, therefore, will support GDP growth to a far smaller extent this year than last.

13 August 2018 Brexit's Chill Winds are Clearly Visible in the Q2 GDP Data (Publication Centre)

The Q2 GDP figures show that the economy has little underlying momentum.

9 Dec. 2015 Chile's Imacec Consistent With Weak But Stable GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Economic activity data in Chile have been soft and uneven this year, due mainly to the hit from low commodity prices and uncertainty surrounding the reform agenda, which has badly damaged consumer and investor sentiment. The latest Imacec index, a proxy for GDP, increased just 1.7% year-over-year in October, down from the 2.7% gain in September, and below the 2.2% average seen during Q3 as a whole.

12 September 2016 Will the MPC Stand By its Rate Cut Guidance this Week? (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee likely will not follow up August's stimulus measures with another rate cut at its meeting on Thursday. The partial revival in surveys of activity and confidence have weakened the case for immediate action.

12 October. 2016 After High Volatility in Q4, LatAm Currencies Will Strengthen in 2017 (Publication Centre)

Investors will increase their focus on exchange rates as the US presidential election and the Fed's next rate hike approach. Markets are becoming concerned that a surge in the USD could trigger another spike in LatAm currency volatility, depressing the good year- to-date performance of most local market assets.

13 August 2019 If China is Playing the Long Game, the Trade War will Last Until 2021 (Publication Centre)

While we were out, most of the action was on the political front, while the economic data mostly were unexciting.

13 Feb. 2015 A Tough 2015 Ahead for Brazil as Downside Risks to Growth Intensify (Publication Centre)

Over the last few months we have started to see hard evidence of Brazil's deceleration, and, as we have argued in previous Monitors, the slowdown is now set to become more visible. Over the coming weeks, markets will focus on whether Brazil is already in recession, its likely severity, and how the country will get out of this mess.

8 June. 2015 Slowly Does it for German Manufacturing Upturn in Q2 (Publication Centre)

New orders data indicate that German manufacturing enjoyed a strong start to the second quarter. Factory orders rose 1.4% month-to-month in April, equivalent to a modest 0.4% gain yearover- year, down from a revised 2.0% in March. The numbers put new orders on track for a solid 1.8% quarter-on-quarter gain in Q2--assuming no change in May and June--but these data are volatile, making this estimate highly uncertain.

8 March 2017 Could a Bad Payroll Report for February Really Stop the Fed? (Publication Centre)

With the FOMC decision now just seven days away, the forcefulness of recent Fed speakers has led many analysts to argue that only a spectacularly bad payroll report, or an external shock, can prevent a rate hike next week. External shocks are unpredictable, by definition, and we think the chance of a startlingly terrible employment report is low, though substantial sampling error does occasionally throw the numbers off-track.

1 May 2019 What Will Chair Powell say About Strong Q1 Growth and Low Inflation (Publication Centre)

The FOMC meeting today will be a non-event from a policy perspective but we are very curious to see what both the written statement and the Chair will have to say about the unexpected strength of the economy in the first quarter.

8 May 2018 Don't Expect the MPC to Signal an Imminent Rate Hike Clearly this Week (Publication Centre)

With little reason to doubt that interest rates will remain at 0.50% on Thursday, focus has turned to what signal the MPC will give about future policy, via its economic forecasts and commentary.

12 October. 2016 The Rise in Gilt Yields Won't Run Out of Steam (Publication Centre)

Gilt yields have risen sharply over the last month, even though the Monetary Policy Committee is just one-third of the way through the £60B bond purchase programme announced in August. Government bond yields in other G7 economies also have increased, but not as much as in Britain.

12 October 2018 The Run of Better Trade Data Will End Abruptly (Publication Centre)

Long-standing readers will know that we have been downbeat on the potential for net external trade to boost the economy following sterling's 2016 depreciation.

12 June 2018 Andes' Disinflation is Over, but Risks will Remain Under Control (Publication Centre)

In yesterday's report we discussed the recent performance of current inflation and inflation expectations in the biggest economies in LatAm, highlighting that risks are tilted to the upside, given the recent FX sell-off and rising political and external risks.

12 June 2018 Core Inflation to Trend Gently Higher - Many Risks in Both Direction (Publication Centre)

We continue to expect core CPI inflation to drift up further over the course of this year, partly because of adverse base effects running through November, but it's hard to expect a serious acceleration in the monthly run rate when the rate of increase of unit labor costs is so low.

12 July. 2016 Brazil and Argentina are Both Hurting, but Healing has Begun (Publication Centre)

Brazil and Argentina, South America's biggest economies are going through a metamorphosis. Brazil is emerging from its recession and a modest recovery is on the horizon. Exports have rebounded, thanks to the lagged effect of the BRL's sharp sell-off last year, and confidence has improved significantly in recent months. The likelihood that interim President Michel Temer will stay on as head of Brazil's government has also helped to boost sentiment.

12 Jan. 2016 Stable Eurozone GDP Growth and Higher Inflation in 2016? (Publication Centre)

The recent cyclical upturn in the EZ began in the first quarter of 2013. GDP growth has accelerated almost uninterruptedly for the last two years to 1.5% year-over-year in Q3, despite the Greek debt crisis and slower growth in emerging markets. Overall we think the recovery will continue with full-year GDP growth of about 1.6%. But we also think the business cycle is maturing, characterised by stable GDP growth and higher inflation, and we see the economy slowing next year.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Tankan reinforces our impression of a nasty Q2. China's manufacturing PMIs show why the authorities are eager for a trade deal. China's non-manufacturing sector holds steady for now. Korean exports disappointed in June, but this probably is as bad as it will get. Ignore Korea's volatile PMI readings... sentiment is improving gradually.

9 May 2019 March GDP Likely to Continue the Run of Above-Consensus Prints (Publication Centre)

We're among a small minority of economists forecasting that GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in March.

9 June. 2016 The Inventory Rundown isn't Over, but the Intensity Will Soon Diminish (Publication Centre)

The collapse in capital spending in the oil sector last year was the biggest single drag on the manufacturing sector, by far. The strong dollar hurt too, as did the slowdown in growth in China, but most companies don't export anything. Capex has fallen in proportion to the drop in oil prices, so our first chart strongly suggests that the bottom of the cycle is now very near.

12 October 2017 The MPC Hasn't Been Afraid to Dash Rate Hike Hopes in the Past (Publication Centre)

It often is argued that the MPC will raise interest rates in November--even if the economic data are not pressuring the Committee to tighten--because markets would go into a tailspin if the MPC failed to meet their expectations.

9 Feb. 2015 Only Brazil Will Have to Hike, Other LatAm Central Banks On Hold (Publication Centre)

Last week's data supported our view that monetary policy across LatAm will continue to diverge in the short term. Brazil will have to prolong its monetary tightening cycle, while economies such as Colombia and Chile will remain on hold despite the recent slowdowns in their economic cycle.

9 January 2019 Brazil's Industrial Sector Ended Q4 on a Weak Footing Can it Improve (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector is still struggling, despite recent signs of better economic and financial conditions.

9 June 2017 The ECB's World: Accelerating GDP Growth and Lower Inflation (Publication Centre)

The headline changes in yesterday's ECB policy announcement were largely as expected. The central bank left its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged at 0.00% and -0.4% respectively, and maintained the pace of QE at €60B per month. The central bank also delivered the two expected changes to its introductory statement. The reference to "lower levels" was removed from the forward guidance on rates, signalling that the ECB does not expect that rates will be lowered anytime soon.

5 June 2017 The Real Story of High Youth Unemployment in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Youth unemployment remains a blemish on the Eurozone economy, despite an increasingly resilient cyclical recovery. The unemployment rate for young workers aged 15-to-24 years stood at 18.4% at the end of April, chiefly due to high joblessness in the periphery.

8 December 2017 Chinese Outflows Picking up? FX Reserves to Fall Again in 2018 (Publication Centre)

China's FX reserves rose to $3119B in November from $3109B in October. But the increase is explained by simultaneous yen, euro and sterling strength, which raises the dollar value of assets denominated in these currencies.

4 May. 2016 Will the March Easter Depress the April ADP Employment Number? (Publication Centre)

The official payroll numbers seem not to be consistently affected by seasonal adjustment problems when Easter falls in March, probably because the earliest possible date for the holiday, the 23rd, comes long after the payroll data are captured. The BLS data cover the week of the 12th.

5 January 2017 Payroll Indicators are Rebounding (Publication Centre)

Most of the leading indicators of payroll growth have rebounded in recent months, with the exception of the Help Wanted Online. Our first chart shows that the NFIB's measure of hiring intentions and the ISM non-manufacturing employment index have returned to their cycle highs, while the manufacturing employment index has risen substantially from its late 2015 low. The Help Wanted Online remains very weak, but it might have been depressed by increased prices for job postings on Craigslist.

4 May 2018 April Payrolls Likely Were Solid, but is Trouble Brewing for late Spring? (Publication Centre)

April payroll growth likely will be reported at close to 200K. Overall, the survey evidence points to a stronger performance, but they don't take account of weather effects, and April was a bit colder and snowier than usual. We're not expecting a big weather hit, but some impact seems a reasonable bet.

4 May 2017 Fed on Hold Today After Mixed Data, but a June Hike Still Looks Likely (Publication Centre)

The Fed surprised no-one yesterday, leaving rates on hold, saying nothing new about the balance sheet, and making no substantive changes to its view on the economy. The statement was tweaked slightly, making it clear that policymakers are skeptical of the reported slowdown in GDP growth to just 0.7% in Q1: "The Committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory".

15 September 2017 Brazil Started Q3 Strongly, and the Recovery Should Continue in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's July economic activity index, released yesterday, showed that the economy started the second half of the year strongly. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, rose 0.4% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.4%, from -0.4% in June.

4 Mar. 2015 Brazil's Central Bank Set to Respond As Inflation Fails to Slow (Publication Centre)

Brazil is now paying the price of President Rousseff's first term, which was characterized by unaffordable expansionary policies. As a result, inflation is now trending higher, forcing the BCB to tighten at a more aggressive pace than initially intended--or expected by investors--depressing business and investment confidence.

5 Apr. 2016 The Great Front-Running in EZ Corporate Bonds Has Begun (Publication Centre)

Corporate bonds will not be included in the ECB's monthly QE purchases until the end of Q2, but markets are already preparing. The sale of non-financial corporate debt jumped to €49.4B in March, from about €25B in February, within touching distance of the record set in Q1 last year.

5 April 2017 The Construction Sector Will Continue to Tread Water (Publication Centre)

Evidence that the U.K. economy has slowed significantly this year is starting to come in thick and fast. Following the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI on Monday --which signalled that growth in production declined in March to its lowest rate since July--the construction PMI dropped to 52.2 in March, from 52.5 in February.

5 December 2018 Brazil's Industrial Output Started Q4 Softly, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Brazil's key data flow started Q4 on a soft note, but we still believe that the economic recovery will gather strength over the next three-to-six months.

5 December. 2016 Labor Market Tightening Continues (Publication Centre)

We're pretty sure that the unemployment rate didn't drop by 0.3 percentage points in November. We're pretty sure hourly earnings didn't fall by 0.1%. And we're pretty sure payrolls didn't rise by 178K. All the employment data are unreliable month-to-month, with the wages numbers particularly susceptible to technical quirks.

15 June 2018 May's Surge in Retail Sales is Just a Weather-Related Blip (Publication Centre)

The trend in retail sales no longer looks quite so flat, following yesterday's May report. The level of sales volumes in April was revised up by 0.3%.

5 December 2018 "Tariff Man" Doesn't Understand Tariffs that's Unfortunate (Publication Centre)

The key data originally scheduled for today--ADP employment and the ISM non-manufacturing survey, and the revised Q3 productivity and unit labor costs-- have been pushed to Thursday because the federal government will be closed for the National Day of Mourning for president George H. W. Bush.

16 March 2018 Kuroda Prepares Parliament to Foot the BoJ's Exit Bill (Publication Centre)

Governor Kuroda dropped further hints in speeches earlier this week that interest rates will be going up. He discussed methods of exit, in loose terms.

15 Mar. 2016 Downside Risk for Retail Sales, but Real Consumption is What Counts (Publication Centre)

This week's wave of data starts today, but most of the attention will fall on just one report, February retail sales. We expect weak-looking numbers, thanks to the plunge in gas prices, which likely will subtract some 0.6% from the non-auto sales number.

16 Aug 2019 Consumers Aren't Going to Blink as the Brexit Deadline Nears (Publication Centre)

July's retail sales figures--the first official data for Q3--provided a reassuring signal that consumers can be counted on to drive the economy as the Brexit deadline nears.

16 Aug 2019 Consumption Started Q3 Strongly Industry Still in the Doldrums (Publication Centre)

The surge in July core retail sales was flattered by the impact of the Amazon Prime Event, which helped drive a 2.8% leap in sales at nonstore retailers.

16 January 2019 Brazil's Black Friday Drove Sales Higher Will the Splurge Reverse (Publication Centre)

Brazil's consumer sluggishness in Q3 and early Q4 eased in November.

16 January 2018 Brazil's Macro Conditions are Improving, But Fiscal Progress is Key (Publication Centre)

The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for Brazil's GDP--rose 0.5% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 2.8%, from an upwardly-revised 3.1% in October.

31 May 2017 Manifestos Point to Very Different Public Borrowing Paths (Publication Centre)

The recent narrowing of the Conservatives' opinion poll lead suggests that investors, particularly in the gilt market, now must consider other parties' fiscal proposals.

31 October 2018 Eurozone GDP Growth hit a Speed Bump in the Third Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of economic data in the Eurozone offered a good snapshot of the grand narrative.

31 May 2018 Recovering Consumer Confidence Won't Lift Spending, Much (Publication Centre)

The widespread view, which we share, that GDP will rebound in Q2 following the disruption caused by bad weather in Q1, was supported yesterday by the E.C.'s Economic Sentiment survey.

21 September. 2016 Sluggish Start to Q3 in Brazil, But Trend is Still Improving (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession stretched into the start of the third quarter, but its intensity has eased. The IBC-Br economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--fell 0.1% month-to-month seasonally adjusted in July, following a 0.4% gain in June. The unadjusted year-over-year rate fell to -5.2%, from an upwardly revised -2.9%.

4 December 2018 China and U.S. Agree a Truce Exports Still Face Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Following the much-anticipated meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump over the weekend, the U.S. will now leave existing tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods at 10%, rather than increasing the rate to 25% in January, as previously slated.

16 June. 2016 Don't Fret Over One Jobs Report, Says Yellen, Doing Exactly That (Publication Centre)

If the Fed really believed its own rhetoric--"Inflation is expected... to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further"--it would have raised rates yesterday, given the very long lags between policy action and the response from the real economy.

4 July 2019 Japan's Services PMI Holds up, is the Sector Really so Resilient? (Publication Centre)

We were surprised to see Japan's services PMI edging up to 51.9 in June, from 51.7 in May. We attributed apparent service sector resilience in April and May to the abnormally long holiday this year.

4 July. 2016 A Look into the Abyss - Will the EZ and the EU Disintegrate? (Publication Centre)

For some economists and political analysts the surprising result of the U.K.'s EU referendum symbolises one of the biggest threats to the structure of the post-war social-liberal market economy. To this school of thought, the vote proved that the discontent of a pressured and disenfranchised working/middle class is rising, threatening to topple economies and political institutions.

31 January 2019 Japanese Retail Sales Demand a Q4 Private Consumption Upgrade (Publication Centre)

The value of Japanese retail sales bounced back strongly in December, rising 0.9% month-on-month, after a 1.1% drop in November.

16 August. 2016 BanRep Will End its Tightening Cycle - Inflation is Set to Fall (Publication Centre)

The account of BanRep's July meeting revealed a significant tug-of-war between the doves and hawks. The majority argued strongly that Colombia's central bank should hike the main interest rate again, by 25bp. Others judged that the benefits of further tightening did not outweigh the costs.

31 July 2019 Rising Confidence Points to Solid Household Spending Ahead of Brexit (Publication Centre)

The further depreciation of sterling yesterday, to its lowest level against the dollar and euro since March 2017 and September 2017, respectively, signified deepening pessimism among investors about the chances of a no-deal Brexit.

5 Feb. 2015 December Trade Data Likely to Signal Upward Q4 GDP Revision (Publication Centre)

Today's December international trade numbers could easily signal a substantial upward revision to fourth quarter GDP growth. When the GDP data were compiled, the December trade numbers were not available so the BEA had to make assumptions for the missing numbers, as usual.

15 May 2017 The Jump in Q1 German GDP Growth Likely Overstates the Trend (Publication Centre)

The German economy fired on all cylinders at the beginning of the year. Advance data on Friday showed that real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, accelerating from a 0.4% increase in Q4.

16 May 2017 Upbeat March's Data in Brazil Confirms the Recession is Over (Publication Centre)

Economic data released yesterday underscored that Brazil emerged from recession in the first quarter, but further rate cuts are needed. Indeed, the monthly economic activity index--the IBC-Br--fell 0.4% monthto- month in March, though this followed a strong 1.4% gain in February.

30 October 2018 Mrs. Merkel's Exit as CDU Leader is the End of an Era in EU Politics (Publication Centre)

The big news in the EZ yesterday was the announcement by German chancellor Angela Merkel that she will step down as party leader for CDU later this year, and that she will hand over the chancellorship when her term ends in 2021.

5 July 2017 Cyclical Improvement in Brazil's Trade Balance is Nearly Over (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external position continue to improve, but we are sticking to our view that further significant gains are unlikely in the second half, given the stronger BRL. For now, though, we still see some momentum, with the unadjusted trade surplus increasing to USD7.2B in June, up from USD4.0B a year earlier. Exports surged 24% year-over-year but imports rose only 3%.

15 July 2019 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Subdued Banxico to Cut Soon (Publication Centre)

Downbeat sectoral data and weakening consumer spending numbers indicate that the Mexican economy remains in bad shape.

15 Jan. 2016 Don't Believe Everything You See in Germany's GDP Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's preliminary full-year GDP data in Germany tell a cautionary tale of the dangers in taking national accounts at face value. The headline data suggest real GDP growth rose to 1.7% in 2015, up slightly from 1.6% in 2014, but these data are not adjusted for calendar effects. The working-day adjusted measure buried in the press release instead indicates that growth slowed marginally to 1.5% from 1.6% in 2014.

16 May 2017 Eurozone Reforms Likely are Coming, but Patience is Needed (Publication Centre)

Mr. Macron will be in Berlin today with the message that France wants a strong Eurozone and a tight relationship with Germany. Friendly overtures between Paris and Berlin are good news for investors; they reduce political uncertainty while increasing the chance that the economic recovery will continue. But it is too early to get excited about closer fiscal coordination, let alone a common EZ fiscal policy and bond issuance.

5 July 2019 Chile's Retail Sector is Stabilizing, but Policy Uncertainty Remains (Publication Centre)

The economic recovery disappointed in Chile during most of the first half of the year, despite relatively healthy fundamentals, including low interest rates, low inflation and stable financial metrics.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Big rebound in services inflation; non-energy goods inflation is flat-lining.

24 January 2017 Chainstore Sales Growth is Trending Upwards, but not for Long (Publication Centre)

Now that the holidays are just a distant memory, the distortions they cause in an array of economic data are fading. The problems are particularly acute in the weekly data­ -- mortgage applications, chainstore sales and jobless claims -- because Christmas Day falls on a different day of the week each year.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs and Money Supply, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty PMIs; money supply details better than the headline.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stabilisation complete; now an upturn?

30 Nov. 2015 Capex to Rebound--Modestly--as the Oil Hit Is Overtaken (Publication Centre)

Capex data by industry are available only on an annual basis, with a very long lag, so we can't directly observe the impact the collapse in the oil sector has had on total equipment spending. But we can make the simple observation that orders for non-defense capital goods were rising strongly and quite steadily-- allowing for the considerable noise in the data--from mid-2013 through mid-2014, before crashing by 9% between their September peak and the February low. It cannot be a coincidence that this followed a 55% plunge in oil prices.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Robust, but not a reliable indicator for GDP growth.

Eurozone H1 2017 Outlook - A Late-Cycle EZ Economy: Higher Inflation and Modestly Lower Growth (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy will have a bright start to 2017, but we think growth over the year as a whole will slow modestly compared with 2016.....

24 July 2017 Not Much Upside for Eurozone Equities in the Rest of 2017 (Publication Centre)

The tailwinds that have propelled Eurozone equities higher since the middle of last year remain place, in principle. In the economy, political uncertainty in the euro area has turned into an opportunity for further integration and reforms, and cyclical momentum in has picked up. And closer to the ground, fundamentals also have improved.

24 July 2018 Mexico's Services Sector Still Driving the Economic Cycle (Publication Centre)

Economic activity in Mexico during the past few months has been resilient, as external and domestic threats, particularly domestic political risks, appear to have diminished.

31 January 2019 Powell Says No Fed Put, but Stocks Jump and the Curve Steepens (Publication Centre)

The FOMC has gone all-in, more or less, on the idea that the headwinds facing the economy mean that the hiking cycle is over.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty; downside risks remain for industrial production in Q2.

31 July 2018 Employment Costs are Accelerating, but Slowly... For Now (Publication Centre)

The most important number, potentially, in today's wave of economic reports is the Employment Costs Index for second quarter.

24 January 2017 EZ Economic Data Will Struggle to Live Up to Expectations in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Consensus forecasts expect further gains in this week's key EZ business surveys, but the data will struggle to live up to expectations. The headline EZ PMIs, the IFO in Germany, and French manufacturing sentiment have increased almost uninterruptedly since August, and we think the consensus is getting ahead of itself expecting further gains. Our first chart shows that macroeconomic surprise indices in the euro area have jumped to levels which usually have been followed by mean-reversion.

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Sentiment, Eurozone, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, but not a major shift in the key story.

30 November. 2016 EZ Inflation Data Will Disappoint Today, but it Will Rise Further (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance inflation data in Germany fell short of forecasts--ours and the consensus--for a further increase. Inflation was unchanged at 0.8% year-over-year in November, but we think this pause will be temporary.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Sentiment and Advance PMIs, France, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not bad at all.

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Construction, and Car Registrations - EZ (Publication Centre)

In one line: More poor Q2 data; EZ core inflation rebounds, but it is not going anywhere fast.

31 January 2018 FOMC Likely More Bullish on Growth, but No Policy Changes (Publication Centre)

Chair Yellen's final FOMC meeting today will be something of a non-event in economic terms.

23 November. 2016 Brazil's Current Account De cit is Stabilizing, Improvement Ahead (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external deficit fell marginally in October, but most of the improvement is now likely behind us. The unadjusted current account deficit dipped to USD3.3B, from USD4.3B in October 2015. The trend is stabilizing, with the 12-month total rolling deficit easing to USD22B--that's 1.2% of GDP--from USD23B in September.

23 November. 2016 Big Upside Risk for October Durable Good Orders (Publication Centre)

The November FOMC meeting was the definitive holding operation; rates were never likely to rise just six days before a very contentious presidential election, especially with the committee split on the degree of inflation risk facing the economy.

30 Sept. 2015 No Slowdown in Key Jobs Data, But Expect "Weak" ADP Today (Publication Centre)

Barely a day passes now without an email asking about "evidence" that the U.S. economy is slowing or even heading into recession. The usual factors cited are the elevated headline inventory-to-sales ratio, weak manufacturing activity, slowing earnings growth and the hit from weaker growth in China. We addressed these specific issues in the Monitor last week, on the 23rd--you can download it from our website--but the alternative approach to the end-of-the-world-is-nigh view is via the labor market.

23 November 2018 Slowing Inflation won't Deter the BoJ from Further Adjustments (Publication Centre)

October likely was the peak in Japanese CPI inflation, at 1.4%, up from 1.2% in September. The uptick was driven by the non-core elements, primarily food.

23 Oct. 2015 U.K. Consumer Recovery is Not as Robust as Retail Sales Suggest (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the surge in retail sales volumes in September suggests that the U.K. consumer is in fine fettle and can prevent the economic recovery from losing momentum as exporters struggle and government spending retrenches. But the underlying picture is less encouraging and consumers won't be able to sustain the recent robust growth in real spending when inflation revives next year.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, but probably not enough to salvage the Q2 number.

*Sept. 2015 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Fed interrupted? But not for long

24 April 2018 Surveys are Stronger than Hard Data, but with no Common Cause (Publication Centre)

The levelling-off in the industrial surveys in recent months is reflected in the consumer sentiment numbers. Anything can happen in any given month, but we'd now be surprised to see sustained further gains in any of the regular monthly surveys.

Asia Datanote: PBoC RRR cut (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not so much retaliation as housekeeping that the PBoC put off until now.

30 October 2017 A Year from now, the Fed Will be Tightening, with More to Come (Publication Centre)

Cast your mind forward to late October 2018. The Fed is preparing to meet next week. What will the economy look like? The key number is three.

24 April 2017 Take None of Last Week's Data at Face Value -- Distortions Abound (Publication Centre)

The gap between the hard and soft data from the industrial economy appeared to widen still further last week. But we are disinclined to take the data--the official industrial production report for March, and the first survey evidence for April--at face value.

22 August 2017 Tourism is Key to Financial Stability in the Spanish Economy (Publication Centre)

Last week's attacks in Barcelona--one of Spain's most popular tourist spots--struck at the heart of one of the economy's main growth engines.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not terrible, but outlook for Q2 as a whole is grim.

24 August. 2015 Better Economic News Fails to Lift LatAm Sentiment - Fx Still Trashed (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy continues to withstand several headwinds, especially the sharp currency depreciation--shown in our first chart--falling commodity prices, and the tough external environment. The country is still one of the economic bright spots in the region, thanks to its resilient domestic demand. June retail sales rose 5.4% year-over-year, well above expectations, and up from 4.1% in May. The underlying trend is positive, averaging 4.8% in the second quarter, well above its 2014 pace.

Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, FAI, May, China (Publication Centre)

In one line: Some improvement in retails sales, which now face renewed headwinds; infrastructure growth driver sputters.

30 November 2017 Headline and Core Inflation in the Eurozone Rebounded in November (Publication Centre)

Today's data likely will show that inflation in the Eurozone rebounded in November.

24 September 2018 How can the Fed Slow the Economy when the Private Sector is so Strong? (Publication Centre)

The big difference between economic cycles in developed and emerging markets is that recessions in the former tend to be driven by the unwinding of imbalances only in the private sector, usually in the wake of a tightening of monetary policy.

30 August 2017 ADP Looks set to Report Another Solid Gain in Payrolls (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a hefty increase in private payrolls in today's August ADP employment report. ADP's number is generated by a model which incorporates macroeconomic statistics and lagged official payroll data, as well as information collected from firms which use ADP's payroll processing services.

*November 2017 - Latin America Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Latam's economies are improving...but political risks are a big threat

9 May. 2016 Banxico Will Wait for the Fed to Hike - No Reasons to Move Soon (Publication Centre)

Banxico left Mexico's benchmark interest rate at 3.75% on Thursday, maintaining its neutral tone and indicating that the balance of risks is unchanged for both inflation and growth. Policymakers remain confident that inflation will remain under control over the coming months, below 3%, but noted that they expect a brief increase above the target during Q4.

24 November. 2016 EZ PMIs Rise Further in November- The Outlook is Good for Q4 GDP (Publication Centre)

The PMIs are telling an increasingly upbeat story for the EZ economy in Q4. The composite PMI in the euro area rose to an 11-month high of 54.1 in November, from 53.3 in October. The uptick was driven by strong new business growth across all private sectors, and employment also increased in response to higher work backlogs.

30 Nov. 2015 Stress Tests Should Underline Greater Resilience of U.K. Banks (Publication Centre)

The resilience of the U.K. financial system will be in focus this week. On Tuesday, the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority, the PRA, will publish the results of stress tests of the U.K.'s seven largest banks. Concurrently, the Bank's Financial Policy Committee, the FPC, will publish its semi-annual Financial Stability Report and announce whether it will deploy any of its macroprudential tools.

24 November. 2016 The Fiscal Fetters Remain in Place, Despite the Looming Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor's Autumn Statement dashed hopes that the fiscal consolidation will be paused while the economy struggles to adjust to the implications of Brexit. Admittedly, Mr. Hammond has another opportunity in the Spring Budget to reduce next year's fiscal tightening.

06 Jan. 2016 Chile's Economic Recovery is Still Fragile And China-Dependent (Publication Centre)

Chile's economic outlook is still clouded, due mostly to the slowdown in China and low copper prices. But the steady, slow increase in the Imacec index, a monthly proxy for GDP, supports our view of a sustained but modest economic recovery this year. The index increased 1.8% year-over-year in November, marginally up from the meagre 1.5% gain in October, but below the 2.2% average seen during Q3 as a whole. November's gain was driven by an increase in services activity, offsetting weakness in mining. Services have been the key engine of growth in the current cycle and likely will remain so in H1.

30 November 2017 Moderating Credit Flows Signal the Economy has Little Momentum (Publication Centre)

October's money and credit report indicates that the economy had little momentum at the start of the fourth quarter.

30 November 2018 Fourth Quarter Consumption is Headed for a Solid 3% Gain (Publication Centre)

Neither the strength in October consumption nor the softness of core PCE inflation, reported yesterday, are sustainable.

9 June. 2015 New York Fed Says Weather, Not Seasonals, Hit Q1 Growth (Publication Centre)

The latest round of Fed analysis on the weakness of first quarter growth, from the New York Fed, completely contradicts the conclusions of the San Fran Fed's work published a couple of weeks ago. The NY Fed found no statistically significant residual seasonality in the GDP numbers, and argued that the reported decline in economic activity was due entirely to the severe weather, which subtracted about two percentage points from headline growth.

31 May 2019 The Economy Won't Be Knocked Off Course by Rising Household Saving (Publication Centre)

Households' willingness to save a smaller fraction of their incomes goes a long way to explaining why the U.K. economy hasn't lost too much momentum since the Brexit vote.

9 June. The Surge in April Industrial Production is Just Noise (Publication Centre)

April's 2.0% month-to-month leap in industrial production was the biggest upside surprise on record to the consensus forecast, which predicted no change. The surge, however, just reflects statistical and weather-related distortions. These boosts will unwind in May, ensuring that industry provides little support to Q2 GDP growth. Make no mistake, the recovery has not suddenly gained momentum.

25 April 2017A Government Shutdown Would Say More About Politics Than Economics (Publication Centre)

A shutdown of the federal government, which could happen as early as this weekend, is a political event rather than a macroeconomic shock. But if it happens--if Congress cannot agree on even a shortterm stop-gap spending measure in order to keep the lights on after the 28th--it would demonstrate yet again that the splits in the House mean that the prospects of a substantial near-term loosening of fiscal policy are now very slim.

9 May 2018 The German Economy Finished Q1 on a Strong Note (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports showed that the German economy firmed at the end of Q1, but this doesn't change the story for a poor quarter overall.

25 Apr. 2016 Stable, but Weak, Cyclical Upturn to Continue in the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Last week's advance PMI data suggest that economic activity in the Eurozone was stable at the beginning of Q2. The composite EZ PMI fell trivially to 53.0 in April, from 53.1 in March, because a dip in manufacturing offset a small rise in the services index.

30 November 2018 EZ Inflation Likely Fell More than Markets Expected in November (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's November inflation reports from Germany and Spain suggest that today's data for the Eurozone as a whole will undershoot the consensus.

24 November 2017 Why Investors Should Heed China's Pivot to Environmentalism (Publication Centre)

We believe China is going through a paradigm shift in its economic policy, away from GDPism-- the obsession with GDP growth targeting--to environmentalism, setting widespread environmental targets on everything, from air to water to waste.

24 November 2017 Risks to Mexico's Inflation Outlook are Increasing, but Q1 will be Better (Publication Centre)

The minutes of Banxico's November 9 policy meeting were released yesterday, in which the Bank left the reference rate unanimously unchanged at 7.0%.

9 November. 2016 Will Wage Growth Keep Up With Rising Inflation? (Publication Centre)

The strength of the economic recovery next year and the MPC's scope to leave interest rates at ultra-low levels will hinge on whether wage growth picks up in response to rising inflation.

9 November. 2016 Trump Stuns LatAm... Banxico Likely Will Have to Act (Publication Centre)

As it became clear that Donald Trump would beat Hillary Clinton to win the U.S. presidency, EM currencies came under severe pressure, fearing his economic and immigration policies. Some of the initial pressure is easing as markets digest the news and following Mr. Trump's conciliatory tone in his victory speech. But the proposals have been made and the MXN and other key LatAm assets likely will remain very stressed in the near term.

*Sept. 2015 - Eurozone Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Ignore the Chinese deflation panic......The cyclical recovery is on track, and inflation is rising

9 November. 2016 With Trump the Likely winner, what next for policy and Markets? (Publication Centre)

The verdict is not yet definitive, but prudence dictates we must now assume victory for Donald Trump. The immediate implication of President Trump is global risk-off, with stocks everywhere falling hard, government bonds rallying, alongside gold and the Swiss franc. The dollar is the outlier; usually the beneficiary when fear is the story in global markets, it has fallen overnight because the risk is a U.S. story.

9 Sept. 2015 Ignore Swings in Random Labor Force Data: Focus on Job Gains (Publication Centre)

We read after the employment report that the drop in the unemployment rate was somehow not significant, because it was due in p art to a reported 41K drop in the size of the labor force, completing a 404K cumulative contraction over the three months to August. In our view, though, analysts need to take a broader approach to the picture painted by the household survey, which is much more volatile and less reliable than the payroll survey over short periods.

24 June. 2015 Another Upbeat PMI Report Adds to the Cyclical Optimism in the EZ (Publication Centre)

The PMI survey yesterday painted a more upbeat picture on the Eurozone economy than we expected. The composite index rose to 54.1 in June from 53.6 in May, taking the quarterly average to its highest level since Q2 2011.

24 June. 2016 Brexit Implications for the U.S: No Immediate Fed Easing (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s unexpected vote for Brexit means a stronger dollar for the foreseeable future, a sharp though likely containable drop in U.S. stock prices, and a further delay before the Fed next raises rates. The vote does not necessarily mean the U.K. actually will leave the EU, because the policy choices now facing leaders of Union have changed dramatically. An offer of substantial concessions on the migration issue--the single biggest driver of the Leave vote-- might be enough to trigger a second referendum, but this is a consideration for another day.

24 June. 2016 The U.K. Wants out of the EU, and Markets are Not Happy (Publication Centre)

The two polls suggesting the U.K. would remain in the EU yesterday proved to be a noose for investors to hang themselves with, as the results pointed to a vote for Brexit. Markets already are in disarray, and the direction is as we expected and feared. EUR/GBP is up 7%, and the DAX 30 in Germany is indicated by futures to plunge a hefty 7%-to-8% at the open. Bund yields will collapse too, and all eyes will be on the spread between Germany and the rest of the periphery.

9 November 2018 Brazil's Economic Outlook Keeps Improving Politics are Helping Too (Publication Centre)

News on Mr. Bolsonaro's economic plans and announcements on key names for his government this week are helping the currency and easing risks perception in Brazil.

24 May 2017 The Eurozone Data Deluge Shows an Economy in Rude Health (Publication Centre)

Investors in the Eurozone were faced with a busy economic calendar yesterday, but the message from the plethora of survey data was simple. The economic recovery in the euro area is strengthening, and risks to GDP growth are firmly tilted to the upside in coming quarters.

9 Nov. 2015 Fed Set to Hike in December, and then Faster than Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

At a stroke, the October payroll report returned the short-term trend in payroll growth to the range in place since 2011, pushed the unemployment rate into the lower part of the Fed's Nairu range, and lifted the year-over-year rate of growth of hourly earnings to a six-year high. The FOMC has never quantitatively defined what it means by "some further improvement in the labor market", its condition for increasing rates, but if the October report does not qualify, it's hard to know what might fit the bill. We expect a 25bp increase in December.

24 Nov. 2015 Bullish PMI Survey Won't Prevent Further ECB Stimulus (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI reports repeated the message of a firm cyclical Eurozone recovery, despite investors' angst over deflation and the underwhelming Q3 GDP data earlier this month. The composite index in the zone rose to a 54-month high of 54.4 in November from 53.9 in October, lifted by strong output and solid new business growth. Our first chart shows the rise in the PMI points to slight upside risks in Q4 to the four quarter trend in real GDP growth of 0.4% per quarter.

24 November 2017 GDP Growth Remains too Reliant on Households Saving Less (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second estimate of Q3 GDP confirmed that the U.K. economy has underperformed this year.

24 May. 2016 The Weaker Dollar Will Lift Nominal Retail Sales Growth (Publication Centre)

The recent run of grim sales and earnings numbers from major national retailers, including Kohl's, Nordstrom, and Macy's, reflects two major trends. The first is obvious; the rising market share of internet sales is squeezing brick and mortar retailers, as our first chart shows. We have no idea how far this trend has yet to run but it shows no signs yet of peaking.

30 August. 2016 Reports of the Economy's Resilience are Greatly Exaggerated (Publication Centre)

Over the sleepy August holidays, a view has gained traction in the media that the U.K. economy is showing little damage from the Brexit vote. Optimists argue that the size and composition of the 0.6% quarter-on-quarter rise in Q2 GDP, the 1.4% month-to-month jump in retail sales volumes in July, and the slight dip in the unemployment claimant count demonstrate that the recovery is in good shape.

9 Nov. 2015 The Unemployment Rate Is the Key Measure of Labour Market Slack (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee continues to assert that it can leave interest rates at rock-bottom levels, even though the unemployment rate has returned to its pre-recession level, because it understates the extent of slack in the labour market. If that hypothesis were correct, however, the relationship between the unemployment rate and wage growth would have weakened. But this clearly has not happened, as our first chart shows.

9 Nov. 2015 Inflation Still a Headache for South American Central Banks (Publication Centre)

Three of the big LatAm economies-- Brazil, Colombia and Chile--released October inflation last week; the data are still showing the pass-through effects of currency depreciation during the first half of the year into prices, though, at different degrees. LatAm currencies have been hit by the weakness in commodity prices and negative sentiment towards EM generally.

04 October. 2016 Colombian Voters Reject Peace Deal, Leaping into the Unknown (Publication Centre)

Colombians have rejected the peace deal with FARC guerrillas to end 52 years of war. The referendum saw relatively poor turnout--almost two thirds of voters abstained--but delivered 50.2% votes against the deal.

23 November 2017 Is EZ Consumption on Track for Grand Finish to 2017? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance consumer sentiment index in the Eurozone confirmed the upside risks for consumers' spending in Q4. The headline index rose to a 17- year high of +0.1 in November, from -1.0 in October.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty, though volatility in interest payments has distorted the picture.

22 June. 2016 No Real Change from Yellen, but Acknowledgement of Other Views (Publication Centre)

Dr. Yellen's Testimony yesterday was largely a cut-and-paste job from the FOMC statement last week and her remarks at the press conference. The Fed's core views have not changed since last week, unsurprisingly, and policymakers still expect to raise rates gradually as inflation returns to the target, but will be guided by the incoming data.

22 March 2018 China's State Capital to Nourish Tech but Neglect Households (Publication Centre)

So much has changed in China over the last six months that we are taking the opportunity in this Monitor to step back and gain an overview of where the economy is going in the long term.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: No cause for alarm.

30 June. 2016 Commodities are Helping LatAm's Recovery - Brexit not a Deal-Breaker (Publication Centre)

The downturn in LatAm is finally bottoming out, but the economy of the region as a whole will not return to positive year-over-year economic growth until next year. The domestic side of the region's economy is improving, at the margin, thanks mainly to the improving inflation picture, and relatively healthy labor markets.

22 July. 2015 The Economic Recovery in Spain is Real, But Can it Last? (Publication Centre)

We have to pinch ourselves when looking at economic data in Spain at the moment. Real GDP rose a dizzying 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, driven by solid gains of 0.7% and 1.1% in consumer's spending and investment respectively. Retail sales and industrial production data indicate GDP growth remained strong in Q2, even if survey data lost some momentum towards the end of the quarter. We will be looking for signs of further moderation in Q3, but surging private deposit growth indicate the cyclical recovery will continue.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Back to normal.

22 June 2017 Falling Oil Prices will hit Mining Capex, but no Repeat of 2014 to 16 (Publication Centre)

The renewed slide in oil prices in recent weeks will crimp capital spending, at the margin, but it is not a macroeconomic threat on the scale of the 2014-to-16 hit.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision, Minutes and Inflation Report, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Maintaining its composure; tightening still likely, if no-deal is averted.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Acknowledging the growing downside risks, but not changing course.

22 November 2018 Korea's Export Slump in November Points to Further Global Softness (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade figures for the first 20 days of November, published yesterday, gave the first real glimpse in a long time of how its exporters are truly performing.

22 November 2018 Next Year's Fiscal Stimulus Is Secure, Despite the Poorer Borrowing Data (Publication Centre)

October's surprise jump in public borrowing is not a material setback for the Chancellor, who will stick to his new Budget plans for modest fiscal stimulus next year.

22 November. 2016 Soybean Exports Still High, but Falling Sharply (Publication Centre)

Surging soybean exports contributed 0.9 percentage points, gross, to third quarter GDP growth, though the BEA said that this was "mostly" offset by falling inventories of wholesale non-durable goods.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit and CIPS Construction Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Work is continuing to dry up as no-deal Brexit risk mounts.

*November 2018 - Latin America Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Latam Economies Will Remain Resilient in Q4...But Idiosyncratic Factors are Rising Red Flags

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with the economy retaining momentum ahead of the Brexit deadline.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit and CIPS Manufacturing Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: No longer outperforming now the stockpiling boost has fully worn off.

30 June 2017 Q1 National Accounts Won't Meet the Governor's Rate Hike Criteria (Publication Centre)

Markets will be extremely sensitive to economic data in the run-up to the MPC's next meeting on August 3, following signals from several Committee members that they think the cas e for a rate rise has strengthened.

U.K. H2 2019 Outlook - A no-deal Brexit remains unlikely - uncertainty alone won't cause the economy to stagnate (Publication Centre)

Our Brexit base case is that the new Prime Minister will request, and the E.U. will grant, another lengthy extension of the U.K.'s membership in October, thereby perpetuating damaging uncertainty, but avoiding the pain of no-deal.

22 Jan. 2016 Brazil's Central Bank on Hold, And Rate Hikes are Now Less Likely (Publication Centre)

Brazil's decision to keep interest rates at 14.25% on Wednesday was a surprise. The consensus forecast immediately before the meeting was for a 25bp increase. As recently as Tuesday, though, most forecasters expected a 50bp increase, following hawkish comments from Board members since the last meeting in November, and rising inflation expectations. But the day before the meeting, the IMF revised its forecast for 2016 GDP to -3.5%, much worse than the 1% drop it predicted in October.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Moving sideways, but not for much longer; expect a strong second half.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Employment, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not enough alone to stop the Fed easing this month.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the headline; what matters is the emerging rising trend in single-family permits.

30 July 2019 No Pre-Brexit Panic Signalled by Monetary Indicators (Publication Centre)

The alarming pace at which the Government is marching towards the Brexit cliff edge still shows no sign of instilling panic among households or firms.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Philadelphia Fed survey, Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Philly surge looks great, but it's not definitive.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Claims noise likely insignificant; hefty upward revisions to Q1 capex.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: A 4% quarter for consumers' spending does not make a compelling case for easier money.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surging core capex orders suggest non-manufacturing firms are spending.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Tariffs, labor costs, and tight rental home supply pushing up core inflation, plus some noise.

UK Datanote MPC Decision, Minutes & Inflation Report, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still committed to rate hikes, but not willing to pull the trigger just yet.

U.S. Datanote: Fed Chair Powell Monetary Policy Testimony (Publication Centre)

In one line: No pushback on the July ease, but it's still a bad idea.

US Datanote FOMC Statement (Publication Centre)

No surprises in the statement; the IOER cut is technical, not a policy change.

30 January 2019 Extremely Downbeat Leading Indicators Should not be Trusted (Publication Centre)

Some closely-watched composite leading indicators for the U.K. economy, and for many others, are flashing red.

U.S. Datanote: FOMC Statement, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Split decision guarantees nothing; trade is the key.

30 January 2019 Slightly Softer Language from the Fed, but no Hints of Easing (Publication Centre)

Today's FOMC meeting will be the first non-forecast meeting to be followed by a press conference.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not yet an accelerating trend, but labor cost and tariff pressures are visible.

22 November. 2016 Trade Data are Improving in the Andes... Better Still in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Colombia's trade deficit continued to narrow in Q3; a postive development now that EM are back in the firing line. Assuming no revisions, the marginal year-over-year dip in the September trade deficit means that the third quarter deficit was USD3.1B, down from US4.6B a year ago.

22 November. 2016 Will November EZ Survey Data Take a Step Back this Week? (Publication Centre)

November data for most of the major EZ business and consumer surveys arrive this week. We doubt the reports will change our view that EZ GDP growth likely will remain steady at about 1.6% year-over-year in Q4. But appearances matter, and risks are tilted to the downside in some of the main surveys, after jumps in October.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disinflation resumes as the economy falters.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the un-adjusted headline; production did well at the start of Q2.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production and unemployment, Chile, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft industrial data, and external conditions for EM economies are becoming increasingly challenging

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation falls sharply helped, by a favourable base effect and a sluggish economic recovery.

23 Mar. 2016 Welcome March Rebound in Eurozone Economic Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Economic sentiment data, which rebounded in March, continue to suggest slight downside risk to EZ GDP growth in Q1. The composite Eurozone PMI in March rose modestly to 53.7 from 53.0 in February, only partially erasing the weakness in recent months. The PMI dipped slightly over the quarter as a whole, although not enough to change the EZ GDP forecast in a statistically meaningful way.

LatAm Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bold cut to help the economic recovery, more to come.

9 July 2019 Andean Inflation Prospects Remain Benign No Rush to Move Rates (Publication Centre)

Andean inflation remains under control, due to subpar growth, modest pressures on prices for nontradeables, and broadly stable currencies.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation, Chile, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pressures are well under control; the BCCh to remain on the sidelines, for now.

30 September. 2016 Trump Fears Prompts a Rate Hike in Mexico, the MXN Rallies, for Now (Publication Centre)

Mexico's central bank, Banxico, last night capitulated again to the depreciation of the MXN and increased interest rates by 50bp, for the third time this year. This week's rebound in the currency was not enough to prevent action.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru (Publication Centre)

In one line: Adopting a dovish stance as the economy fails to gather speed.

23 Nov. 2015 How to Scare Yourself Over the U.S. Inflation Outlook (Publication Centre)

Should you be feeling in the mood to panic over inflation risks--or more positively, benefit from the markets' underpricing of inflation risks--consider the following scenario. First, assume that the uptick in wages reported in October really does mark the start of the long-awaited sustained acceleration promised by a 5% unemployment rate and employers' difficulty in finding people to hire. Second, assume that the rental property market remains extremely tight. Third, assume that the abrupt upturn in medical costs in the October CPI is a harbinger o f things to come. And finally, assume that the Fed hawks are right in their view that the initial increase in interest rates will--to quote the September FOMC minutes--"...spur, rather than restrain economic activity". Under these conditions, what happens to inflation?

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty; sales fell over Q2 as a whole.

23 November 2017 The Chancellor Softens the Fiscal Squeeze and Hopes for the Best (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor was bolder than widely expected yesterday and scaled back the fiscal consolidation planned for the next two years significantly, even though his borrowing forecast was boosted by the OBR's gloomier prognosis for the economy.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mean-reversion from last month, but claims likely are now rising a bit.

H2 2017 Asia Outlook - Higher Global Rates Depress China but Stimulate Japan, for now (Publication Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

06 August. 2015 Stabilisation, not Acceleration, in German New Orders Growth (Publication Centre)

We are wary of a downside surprise in today's German orders, due to weak advance data from the engineering organisation, VDMA. We think factory orders fell 0.5% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate slightly lower to 4.5% in June from 4.7% in May. This is noticeably worse than the market expects, but the consensus forecast for a 0.3% rise implies a jump in the year-over-year rate, which is difficult to reconcile with leading indicators.

H2 2017 Eurozone Outlook - The Eurozone Economy is Doing Well, but Will it Last? (Publication Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

LatAm Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: On hold for now; progress on pension reform is the key.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another signal of feeble economic activity

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: No case for cutting Bank Rate based on the outlook for inflation.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another weak survey, but production will rebound in Q3.

31 August 2018 Andean Economies Remain Strong, but External Threats are Significant (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday show that the Chilean economy had a weak start to the second half of the year.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Growth isn't slow enough to warrant a rate cut.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another robust report, undermining the case for a rate cut.

22 Oct. 2015 Will Simply Holding The E.U. Referendum Harm The Economy? (Publication Centre)

Discussion about whether the U.K. would be better off voting to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum is rarely out of the press, raising the question of whether simply holding the national vote could damage the economy even if the U.K. votes for the status quo in the end.

22 October 2018 Budget to Ensure Fiscal Policy Doesn't Slow the Economy in 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor probably can't believe his luck. Public borrowing has continued to fall this year at a much faster rate than anticipated by the OBR, despite the sluggish economy.

22 September 2017 The Earthquake's Economic Hit Appears to be Modest (Publication Centre)

Before this week's earthquake, the resilience of Mexico's economy in the face of a volatile and challenging global backdrop owed much to the strength of domestic demand, especially private consumption.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Too noisy to warrant concern.

05 Jan. 2016 Credit Flows Aren't Strengthening Enough to Prevent a Slowdown (Publication Centre)

November's money and credit figures brought welcome news that the recovery in bank lending is strengthening. This revival should continue, now that banks have completed most of the work required to improve their capital positions. But we doubt lending will recover quickly enough to prevent the economic recovery slowing in 2016, as the downward pressure on growth from the fiscal squeeze and the strong pound builds.

U.K Datanote: U.K. Prime Minister resignation (Publication Centre)

In one line: A no-deal Brexit remains an unlikely outcome, even with a "true" Brexiteer PM.

23 Jan. 2015 Can Treasuries Focus on the U.S. Economy as Euro Risk Recedes? (Publication Centre)

The ECB's decision to go all-in and buy sovereign debt has three key consequences for U.S. markets. First, Treasuries will no longer benefit from safe-haven flows, because shorting Eurozone government debt has just become a fantastically risky proposition.

23 January 2017 The Fed's Idea of Full Employment is not the Same as Main Street's (Publication Centre)

Full employment is a deceptively simple-sounding concept. If everyone who wants a job has one, the economy is at full employment, right? Anything less tends to raise eyebrows among non-economists, whether the people who want a job are formally inside the labor force, or have dropped out but would come back if they thought they could find work.

23 February 2018 Venezuela's Crytocurrency is not a Quick Fix for Rising Misfortunes (Publication Centre)

Venezuela's beleaguered government announced on Tuesday that it had begun the pre-sale of 82.4M coins of a virtual currency, called the "petro", backed by the nation's vast petroleum reserves.

U.K. Datanote U.K. Car Registrations, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pronounced weakness in Q2 likely a consequence of the original Brexit deadline.

05 Feb. 2016 Inflation Report Indicates Rate Hike Not as Distant as Markets Think (Publication Centre)

The "Super Thursday" releases from the Monetary Policy Committee--MPC--indicate that financial market turbulence and the approaching E.U. referendum have kiboshed the chances of an interest rate rise in the first half of this year. Nonetheless, the MPC's forecasts clearly imply that it expects to raise rates much sooner than markets currently anticipate, and the Governor signalled that a rate cut isn't under active consideration.

U.K. Datanote: Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slowing, but not as sharply as we had feared.

22 August 2018 Will the French Economy Re-Assert Itself in the Second Half (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in France has been the key downside surprise in the Eurozone this year.

4 Dec. 2014 - November Data Might Hide Underlying Labor Market Strength (Publication Centre)

The ADP report yesterday has not changed our view that tomorrow's payroll number will be about 180K, well below our estimate of the underlying trend, which is about 250K. ADP's numbers are heavily influenced by the BLS data for the prior month, and tell us little or nothing about the next official report.

5 December 2016 Mexico's PMIs Fell in November, Q4 GDP Outlook is Poor (Publication Centre)

The MXN came under pressure last week as news broke that Banxico Governor Agustin Carstens plans to resign next year. Mr. Carstens has led the bank since 2010; during his term, Banxico cut interest rates to record low levels and managed to keep inflation under control.

7 Apr. 2016 Real Economic Data Point to an Upbeat German GDP Story in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German industrial production data were poor, but better than we expected. Output fell 0.5% month-to-month in February, pushing annual growth down to 1.3% from a revised 1.8% in January. In addition, net revisions to the month-to-month data were a hefty -1.0%, but this is not enough to change the story of a Q1 rebound in industrial production.

6 September 2017 August's PMIs Show the Economy is too Brittle to Handle a Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

Our conviction that the economy continues to grow at a snail's pace increased yesterday following the release of August's Markit/CIPS services survey.

28 February 2017 Colombia's Economy is Struggling, but Further Easing is Coming (Publication Centre)

The Colombian economy was relatively resilient at the end of last year, but economic reports released during the last few weeks indicate that growth is still fragile, and that downside risks have increased. Real GDP rose 1.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.6% from 1.2% in Q3.

28 August. 2015 Another Month, Another Bullish Money Supply Report in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's money supply report provided further relief for investors doubtful over the cyclical recovery following the market turmoil. Broad money growth, M3, accelerated to 5.3% year-over-year in July, up from 4.9% in June, and within touching distance of a new post-crisis high. Narrow money continued to surge too, rising 12.1% year-over-year, up from 11.1% in June, sending a bullish message on the Eurozone economy.

28 August 2018 Germany's Economy is Resilient in the Face of External Risks (Publication Centre)

Friday's detailed GDP data in Germany confirm that the euro area's largest economy performed strongly in the second quarter.

3 January 2018 The Manufacturing Upswing Continues no Sign of Weakening (Publication Centre)

The Manufacturing Upswing Continues; no Sign of Weakening

5 August 2019 Tariffs on Chinese Consumer Goods not Necessarily a Done Deal (Publication Centre)

The President's threat to impose tariffs on imported Chinese consumer goods on September 1 might yet come to nothing.

6 November 2018 Should the PMIs' Gloomy Prognosis be Trusted This Time? (Publication Centre)

October's Markit/CIPS services survey added to evidence that the economy has started Q4 on a very weak footing.

6 Nov. 2015 Markets Ignore Inflation Report's Hawkish Undertones (Publication Centre)

Markets have interpreted the Monetary Policy Committee's "Super Thursday" releases as an endorsement of their view that interest rates will remain on hold for another year. We think the Committee's communications were more nuanced and believe the door is still open to an interest rate rise in the second quarter of next year.

3 February 2017 MPC Signals Newfound Supply Optimism, no Near-Term Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

The absence of hawkish undertones in the minutes of the MPC's meeting or in the Inflation Report forecasts took markets by surprise yesterday. The dominant view on the Committee remains that the economy will slow over the next couple of years, preventing wage growth from reaching a pace which would put inflation on trac k permanently to exceed the 2% target.

3 Feb. 2015 Behind the Noise, U.S. Economic Fundamentals are Solid (Publication Centre)

We are not bothered by either the drop in real December consumption, all of which was due to a weather-induced plunge in utility spending, or the drop in the ISM manufacturing index, which is mostly a story about hopeless seasonal adjustments.

6 July. 2015 Colombia's Economic Activity Resilient, but is it Sustainable? (Publication Centre)

Colombia started the second quarter strongly, with the ISE economic activity indicator--a monthly proxy for GDP--expanding a solid and surprising 3.6% year-over-year in April, up from 2.9% in March. The rate of growth is well above the 2.8% gain in Q1, con firming the country's resiliency in the face of lower oil prices. Still, growth has slowed sharply since the 4.4% increase in activity in 2014, as our first chart shows.

28 Jan. 2016 Preliminary GDP Likely to Provide Another Downside Surprise (Publication Centre)

We expect today's preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP growth to surprise the consensus to the downside, underscoring our view that the economic recovery has shifted down to a much slower gear.

3 January 2017 Slowing Real Income Growth Will Define the 2017 U.K. Economy (Publication Centre)

The U.K. economy retained its momentum last year, despite the seismic shock of the vote to leave the EU. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth averaged 0.5% in the first three quarters of 2016, matching 2015's rate and the average pace of growth across the Atlantic.

6 March 2019 Andean Policymakers in no Rush to Modify their Neutral Policy Stance (Publication Centre)

Chile's IMACEC economic activity index rose 2.4% year-over-year in January, down from 2.6% in December, and 3.3% on average in Q4, thanks mostly to weak mining production.

6 Mar. 2015 The BCB Hikes Again But The Tightening Cycle is Not Quite Over (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian industrial sector started this year on a very downbeat note, despite a 2% month-to-month jump in output. The underlying trend in activity is still very weak. Production fell 5.2% year-over-year.

6 Mar. 2015 A more upbeat Mr. Draghi, but QE is not challenged by better economic data (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi was in a slightly more bullish mood yesterday, noting that the significant easing of financial conditions in recent months and improving sentiment show that monetary policy "has worked". Economic risks are tilted to the downside, according to the president, but they have also "diminished".

7 February 2019 Korea's December was Good, not Great Expect Revisions to Q4 GDP (Publication Centre)

Following the publication of Korea's preliminary Q4 GDP report last month--see here--we said the consensus-beating print would be susceptible to downgrades, unless the economy had a miraculous end to 2018

7 February 2019 November's Drop in Imports won't be Repeated, but it will Lift Q4 Growth (Publication Centre)

The startling November international trade numbers, released yesterday, greatly improve the chance that the fourth quarter saw a third straight quarter of 3%- plus GDP growth.

27 July 2018 Argentina's Economy Plunged in Q2 When will it Stabilize (Publication Centre)

Data released this week confirmed that economic activity deteriorated sharply in Argentina in Q2.

27 July. 2016 Can Fiscal Stimulus be a Silver Bullet for the Eurozone Economy? (Publication Centre)

Global economic growth continues to fall short of expectations, and the call for aggressive fiscal stimulus is growing in many countries. This is partly a function of the realisation that monetary policy has been stretched to a breaking point. But it is also because of record low interest rates, which offer governments a golden and cheap opportunity to kickstart the economy. One of the main arguments for stronger fiscal stimulus is based on classic Keynesian macroeconomic theory.

27 June 2017 Mexican Economic Growth Will be Sustained over the Second Half (Publication Centre)

Economic activity in Mexico during the past few months has been relatively resilient, as external and domestic threats appear to have diminished.

7 March 2017 Why has Spending not Faltered After Tax Refunds were Delayed? (Publication Centre)

The delay in the processing of personal income tax refunds this year appears not to have had any adverse impact on retail sales, so far. Indeed, the Redbook chainstore sales survey suggests that sales have accelerated over the past few weeks.

7 May 2019 The China Trade Deal Hangs in the Balance, but all is not Lost (Publication Centre)

We have long argued that the U.S. and China will reach a trade deal this spring, because it is in the interests of both sides, economically and politically, to do so.

27 Feb. 2015 M1 growth is sending a very bullish on the Eurozone economy (Publication Centre)

Economic data in the Eurozone are sending an increasingly upbeat message on the economy. Yesterday saw a barrage of numbers, but the most startling of them was the continued acceleration in the money supply.

7 May 2019 The Economy's Pulse is Stronger than Business Surveys Suggest (Publication Centre)

All the main business surveys released last week continued to paint a picture of a listless economy.

27 Jan. 2016 FOMC Likely to Warn Again of External Risks, and do... Nothing (Publication Centre)

Today's FOMC announcement will be something of a non-event. Rates were never likely to rise immediately after December's hike, and the weakness of global equity markets means the chance of a further tightening today is zero.

3 July 2017 National Accounts Expose Britain's Economic Fragility (Publication Centre)

Last week's national accounts confirmed that the economy lost momentum abruptly in Q1, with net trade and investment failing to offset weaker growth in households' spending.

7 June 2018 Slower Growth in Consumer Credit is a Correction, not a Warning (Publication Centre)

We've been hearing a good deal about the slowdown in the rate of growth of consumer credit in recent months, and with the April data due for release today, it makes sense now to reiterate our view that the recent numbers are no cause for alarm.

7 January 2019 Chile's Economic Upturn Stuttered in Q4, Risks to Growth are Rising (Publication Centre)

Chile's economic outlook is still positive, but clouds have been gradually gathering since mid-year, due mostly to the slowdown in China, low copper prices and falling consumer and business confidence.

5 April 2019 Mexico's Economy Remained Weak in Q1, but it will Rebound from Q2 (Publication Centre)

The relative strength of the investor and consumer confidence reports for March, released this week, signal a better outlook for the Mexican economy.

7 Jan. 2015 The Sharp Slowdown In Chile's Economy Is Almost Over (Publication Centre)

Chile's economic outlook remains challenging. Overall, 2015 will likely mark the second consecutive year of disappointing growth, but it will be better than 2014, a year to forget.

7 July. 2015 Cyclical Recovery is Resilient - Not Immune - To Greek Turmoil (Publication Centre)

The sell-off in bonds and equities continued yesterday, but the reaction bears no resemblance, so far, to the sovereign debt crises in 2012 and 2010. The first evidence from sentiment data in July also points to surprising stability. The headline Sentix index rose to 18.5, up slightly from 17.1 in June, but the expectations index fell marginally, to 22.3 from 22.5.

27 November 2018 Japan's Flash PMI Puts a Q4 GDP Rebound into Serious Doubt (Publication Centre)

Japan's flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI report for November was abysmal, putting the chances of a recovery this quarter into serious doubt.

3 January 2019 Huge External Deficit Points to Big No-Deal Downside for Sterling (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s balance of payments leaves little room for doubt that sterling would sink like a stone in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

27 November 2017 Economic Growth Set to Rise Next Year, but Pain Will Follow in 2019 (Publication Centre)

We have argued for some time that the revival in nonoil capex represents clear upside risk for GDP growth next year, but it's now time to make this our base case.

6 February 2018 No Change in the Bullish Message From the Eurozone PMI Data (Publication Centre)

Real M1 growth is slowing, and financial conditions are beginning to tighten in the Eurozone, but shortleading indicators continue to signal firm momentum in the economy.

3 Dec. 2015 Great Expectations of the ECB, But Mr. Draghi Will Not Disappoint (Publication Centre)

Even Charles Dickens could not have written a more dramatic prologue to today's ECB meeting. Elevated expectations ahead of major policy events always leave room for major disappointment, but we think the central bank will deliver. Advance data yesterday indicated inflation was unchanged at 0.1% year-over-year in November, below the consensus 0.2%, and providing all the ammunition the doves need to push ahead. We expect the central bank to cut the deposit rate by 20bp to -0.4%, to increase the pace of bond purchases by €10B to €70B a month, and to extend QE to March 2017.

5 October 2017 The PMIs Show Economic Growth Momentum Still Fading (Publication Centre)

The latest PMIs indicate that the economy remained listless in Q3, undermining the case for a rate rise before the end of this year. The business activity index of the Markit/CIPS services survey rose trivially to 53.6 in September, from 53.2 in August.

29 July. 2016 Will Household Saving Rise and Tip the Economy into Recession? (Publication Centre)

Households' saving decisions will play a key role in determining whether the economy slips into recession over the next year. Indeed, all of the last three recessions coincided with sharp rises in the household saving rate, as our first chart shows. Will households save more in response to greater economic uncertainty?

5 July 2017 ISM Signals Continued Industrial Recovery, but not a Boom (Publication Centre)

The June ISM manufacturing index signalled clearly that the industrial recovery continues, with the headline number rising to its highest level since August 2014, propelled by rising orders and production. But the industrial economy is not booming and the upturn likely will lose a bit of momentum in the second half as the rebound in oil sector capex slows.

5 January 2018 The Plodding Economy Will Enable the MPC to Take its Time (Publication Centre)

December's Markit/CIPS surveys for the manufacturing, construction and services sectors suggest that the economy ended 2017 on a lacklustre note.

3 April 2018 GDP Growth in the Eurozone is Slowing, but Not Collapsing (Publication Centre)

The economic data in the Eurozone were mixed while we were away.

29 Feb. 2016 The Weaker Pound has not Transformed the Export Outlook (Publication Centre)

In theory, any hit to sentiment and business investment as the E.U. referendum nears could be offset by a better foreign trade performance, due to the Brexit-related depreciation of sterling. But not every cloud has a silver lining.

29 Jan. 2015 Inflation data will be kind to bondholders, for now (Publication Centre)

Last week's QE announcement has made Eurozone inflation prints less important for investors, but the market will still be watching for signs of a turning point in benchmark bond yields. The data are unlikely to challenge bond holders in the short run, however, as the Eurozone probably slipped deeper into deflation in January.

29 Jan. 2016 Data and Copom Minutes Point to no Change in Brazilian Rates (Publication Centre)

Another month, another bleak Brazilian labor market report. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased marginally to 8.3% in December, up from 8.2% in November, much worse than the 5.1% recorded in December 2014.

5 November 2018 Taking Stock of the Outlook after a Newsworthy Week (Publication Centre)

News last week increased our conviction that the economy will struggle over the coming months, but then will have a spring in its step next year.

29 June 2018 EZ Inflation is Back to Normal, but that's not Enough for the ECB (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's inflation data in the major euro area economies force us to mark down slightly our prediction for today's headline EZ number.

29 November. 2016 Q3 Growth Set for Upward Revision, Too Soon for a Firm View of Q4 (Publication Centre)

Regular readers will know that we are very skeptical of the reliability of the quarterly GDP data. We just don't believe that the U.S. economy is as volatile over short periods as the data suggest.

01 May. 2015 Brazil's two-year tightening cycle is over, at least for now (Publication Centre)

While we were out, monetary policy in Latin America was unchanged, except in Brazil, where the Monetary Policy Committee--Copom--this week raised the Selic rate by 50bp to 13.25%, in line with expectations. Looking ahead, we now expect no changes in policy in Brazil or elsewhere over the next few months, or at least until the Fed starts hiking rates.

29 November 2018 Powell Says the Funds Rate is Just Below... Well, What, Exactly (Publication Centre)

The stock market loved Fed Chair Powell's remarks on the economy yesterday, specifically, his comment that rates are now "just below" neutral.

29 November. 2016 Colombia's Economy Slowed Sharply in Q3, Better News Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Friday's Q3 GDP report for Colombia confirmed the message from hard data and surveys, showing that the economy slowed sharply. Real GDP growth dropped to 1.2% year-over-year, its slowest pace since early 2009, from 2.0% in Q2.

29 November. 2016 Real M1 Growth Tells a Downbeat Story on the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

In recent Monitors, we have highlighted the upturn in Q4 survey data pointing to a strong end of the year for the EZ economy. This story has not changed, but yesterday's money supply data tell a story of downside risks.

5 Nov. 2015 A Rebound in German New Orders? But the Trend is Subdued (Publication Centre)

Factory orders in Germany probably jumped in September, following a string of losses in the beginning of Q3. We think new orders rose 1.0% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate slightly lower, to 1.8% from 2.0% in August. A rebound in non- Eurozone export orders likely will be the key driver of the monthly gain, following a 14.8% cumulative plunge in the previous two months. The rise will be concentrated in capital and consumer goods, and should be enough to offset a fall in export orders within the euro area. Our forecast is consistent with new orders falling 2.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, partly reversing the 3.0% surge in the second quarter, and raising downside risks for production in Q4.

29 June. 2015 Greek Exit Looms, but Don't Ignore Bullish Leading Indicators (Publication Centre)

Negotiations between Greece and its creditors collapsed over the weekend, greatly increasing the risk of a Grexit. The decision by Syriza to call a referendum on the bailout proposal next weekend, initially advocating rejection, forced the Eurogroup to abandon negotiations and focus on "damage control." Hope of a final retreat from the brink rests with the Greek parliament deciding not to hold the referendum, and accepting the proposal presented on Friday.

5 July. 2016 Can We be Sure The Labor Market is Tight Enough to Boost Wage Gains? (Publication Centre)

We have argued consistently for some time that the next year will bring a clear acceleration in U.S. wage growth, because the unemployment rate has fallen below the Nairu and a host of business survey indicators point to clear upward wage pressures. Nominal wage growth has been constrained, in our view, by the unexpected decline in core inflation from 2012 through early 2015, which boosted real wage growth and, hence, eased the pressure from employees for bigger nominal raises.

5 September 2017 Services PMI set to Show Economy Still Struggling in Q3 (Publication Centre)

August's Markit/CIPS services survey, released today, likely will show that the economy's biggest sector is continuing to slow. We think that the PMI fell to just 53.0--its lowest level since it plunged immediately after the Brexit vote--from 53.8 in July, below the consensus, 53.5.

5 September. 2016 Is a Further Rate Cut no Longer a Done Deal? (Publication Centre)

The run of consensus-beating activity measures and the pickup in leading indicators of inflation have led markets to doubt that the MPC really will follow up August's package of stimulus measures with another Bank Rate cut this year.

28 November. 2016 GDP Won't Sustain its Recent Momentum Next Year (Publication Centre)

The second estimate of Q3 GDP last week confirmed that the Brexit vote didn't immediately drain momentum from the economic recovery. But it is extremely difficult to see how growth will remain robust next year, when high inflation will cripple consumers and the impact of the decline in investment intentions will be felt.

28 November. 2016 Household Consumption in France Will Recover Lost Ground in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The outlook for French consumers' spending improved this month, at the margin. The headline consumer sentiment index was unchanged at 98 in November, but most forward-looking indicators rose. Consumers' spending in was flat in Q2 and Q3, following a 1.1% jump in the first quarter.

6 December 2018 Take China's Services PMI with Enough Salt to Alarm your Doctor (Publication Centre)

The Caixin services PMI leapt to an eyebrow- raising 53.8 in November, from 50.8 in October.

28 November. 2016 The Housing Slowdown Next Year Will be Offset by Fiscal Easing (Publication Centre)

We have been asked how we can justify raising our growth forecasts but at the same time arguing that the housing market is set to weaken quite dramatically, thanks to the clear downshift in mortgage applications in recent months. Applications peaked back in June, so this is not just a story about the post-election rise in mortgage rates.

28 November 2018 The Fed is Nearer Neutral, but That's not News Where is Neutral (Publication Centre)

Today brings a ton of data, as well as an appearance by Fed Chair Powell at the Economic Club of New York, in which we assume he will address the current state of the economy and the Fed's approach to policy.

28 May 2019 The Trade War: What we Know, What we Believe, and What we Don't Know (Publication Centre)

The trade war with China is a macroeconomic event, whose implications for economic growth and inflation can be estimated and measured using straightforward standard macroeconomic tools and data.

28 May. 2015 The Oil Hit Matters for Capex, but Not for the Labor Market (Publication Centre)

We argued in the Monitor yesterday that the very low and declining level of jobless claims is a good indicator that businesses were not much bothered by the slowdown in the pace of economic growth in the first quarter. The numbers also help illustrate another key point when thinking about the current state of the economy and, in particular, the rollover in the oil business.

6 December. 2016 PMI Data Signal a Solid End to 2016 for the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

The final EZ PMI data for November yesterday confirmed that the composite index in the Eurozone rose to an 11-month high of 53.9, from 53.3 in October. The key driver was an improvement in services, boosted by stronger data in all the major economies. Manufacturing activity also improved, though, and the details showed that new business growth was robust in both sectors.

6 December 2018 November's Services PMI Bolsters our Below-Consensus Q4 GDP Call (Publication Centre)

The slump in the Markit/CIPS services PMI in November to its lowest level since July 2016 provides the clearest indication yet that uncertainty about Brexit has driven the economy virtually to a stand-still.

28 Sept. 2015 ECB is on Alert, but No Warning, So Far, From the Economy (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi used his introductory statement at the ECON--EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee-- hearing last week to assure investors that the central bank is vigilant to downside risks. The president noted the governing council "would not hesitate to act" if it deems growth and inflation to be undershooting expectations. Market volatility has increased the ECB's worries, but economic data continue to tell a story of a firm business cycle upturn.

29 April 2019 Growth Will be Slower in Q2, but not Slow, What Will the Fed Say? (Publication Centre)

The definition of "yesbutism": Noun, meaning the practice of dismissing or seeking to diminish the importance of data on the grounds that the next iteration will tell the opposite story.

5 January 2018 Time to Talk Chinese New Year Already, Ignore the PMI Jumps (Publication Centre)

The Caixin services PMI jumped sharply to 53.9 in December from 51.9 in November. All the PMIs picked up significantly, but we find this hard to believe and suspect seasonality is to blame, though the adjustment is tricky.

6 Apr. 2016 Is Non-Manufacturing Activity Past Its Cyclical Peak in the Eurozone? (Publication Centre)

The final Eurozone PMIs indicate that the cyclical recovery continued in Q1, but downside risks are rising. The composite index rose marginally to 53.0 in March, from 53.1 in February, below the initial estimate 53.7. Over the quarter as a whole, though, the index fell to 53.2 from 54.1 in Q4, indicating that economic momentum moderated in the first quarter.

5 February 2018 January's Wage Acceleration is not Definitive, but it's a Clear Warning (Publication Centre)

To be clear, the 2.9% year-over-year increase in headline hourly earnings in January does not restore the prior relationship between the rate of growth of nominal wages and measures of labor market tightness.

5 Feb. 2015 The Eurozone Economy is Getting Better: Cyclical Recovery Ahead (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's retail sales report indicates that preliminary Eurozone Q4 GDP data next week are likely to paint an upbeat picture of the economy. Sales rose 0.3% month-to-month in December, equivalent to 2.8% year-over-year. An upward revision to November data means that turnover increased 0.8% quarter-on- quarter, the best since the first quarter of 2005.

3 Dec. 2014 - ADP Likely to Overstate November Payrolls, Thanks to Early Snows (Publication Centre)

Since its October 2012 revamp, the ADP measure of private employment--the November survey will be released this morning--has tended to be little more than a lagging indicator of the official number.That's because ADP incorporates official data, lagged by one month, into the regression which generates its employment measure.

29 Apr. 2015 Growth in the first quarter, but not much? (Publication Centre)

The first estimate of Q1 growth will show that the economy struggled in the face of the severe winter and, to a lesser extent, the rollover in capital spending in the oil sector. But the weather hit appears to have been much smaller than last year, when the economy shrank at a 2.1% rate in the first quarter; this time, we think the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.1%.

7 November 2017 Car Sales are Falling Rapidly, with no End in Sight (Publication Centre)

The downturn in car sales is showing no sign of abating. Data released yesterday by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders showed that private registrations fell 10.1% year-over-year in October, much worse than the 6.6% average drop in the previous 12 months.

7 November 2017 JOLTS Report will Confirm that Labor Demand is Rising Strongly (Publication Centre)

No single measure of labor demand is always a reliable leading indicator of the official payroll numbers, which is why we track an array of private and official measures.

25 Sept. 2015 Economic Sentiment is Holding Up amid Investor Angst (Publication Centre)

The two main national surveys--IFO and INSEE-- both beat consensus forecasts yesterday, supporting our story of that economic sentiment is holding up relatively well in the face increasing investor anxiety. In Germany, the main IFO business climate index rose marginally to 108.5 from a revised 108.4 in August, boosted by an increase in the expectations index to a six-month high of 103.3, up from 102.0 in August. The IFO expectations index points to real GDP growth rising 0.5%-to-0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q3.

8 November. 2016 Weather--not Brexit--is Culpable for Production and Retail Sales Swings (Publication Centre)

It would be a mistake to conclude much about the economic impact of the Brexit vote from today's official industrial production figures for September, and the British Retail Consortium's figures for retail sales in October.

25 September 2017 Another Month, Another Robust PMI Report in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy ended the third quarter on a strong note, according to the PMIs.

25 November. 2016 German GDP Growth Will Rebound in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in Germany confirmed that the economy slowed in Q3, but also added to the evidence that growth will rebound in Q4. The second estimate for Q3 showed that real GDP rose 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, slowing from a 0.4% gain in Q2.

25 November. 2016 Don't Bank on Hammond Being Able to Use His Fiscal Headroom (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor hinted in the Autumn Statement that the fiscal consolidation might not be as severe as it appears on paper because he has built in some "fiscal headroom". By that, Mr. Hammond means that he could borrow more and still adhere to his new, self-imposed rules.

25 Nov. 2015 Q3 Inventory Revisions Limit the Potential for Q4 Growth Rebound (Publication Centre)

The hefty upward revision to Q3 inventories means we have to lower our working assumption for fourth quarter GDP growth, because the year-end inventory rebound we previously expected is now much less likely to happen. Remember, the GDP contribution from inventories is equal to the change in the pace of inventory accumulation between quarters, and we're struggling to see a faster rate of accumulation in Q4 after the hefty revised $90B third quarter gain. Inventory holdings are in line with the trend in place since the recession of 2001; firms don't need to build inventory now at a faster pace.

25 November. 2016 Brazilian Inflation is Easing, but in Mexico, it is Heading North (Publication Centre)

This week's November mid-month inflation reports in Brazil and Mexico underscored their divergent trends. Inflation pressures are steadily falling in Brazil, but in Mexico, the pass-through from the MXN's sell- off is driving up inflation and inflation expectations.

8 October 2018 Mortgage Refinancing won't be a Tailwind for the Economy Next Year (Publication Centre)

The process of refinancing existing mortgages at ever-lower interest rates has been a boon for the economy in recent years.

8 November. 2016 Focus on the Improving Trend in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand for German manufacturing goods slipped at the end of Q3. Yesterday's report showed that factory orders fell 0.6% month-to-month in September, constrained by weakness in domestic demand and falling export orders to other EZ economies.

8 November. 2016 If Clinton Loses, Most U.S. Forecasting Models Will be Wrong (Publication Centre)

We are not political analysts or psephologists, but we note that each of the nine separate election forecasting models tracked by the New York Times suggests that Hillary Clinton will be president, with odds ranging from 67% to greater than 99%.

26 August. 2015 U.S. ISM Will Follow China's PMI, But Not Yet - Services ISM Strong (Publication Centre)

The decline in China's unofficial PMI, which has dropped to a six-year low, signals increasing troubles ahead for U.S. manufacturers selling into China, and U.S. businesses operating in China. This does not mean, though, that the U.S. ISM will immediately fall as low as the Caixin/Markit China index appears to suggest in the next couple of months. Our first chart shows that in recent years the U.S. manufacturing ISM has tended hugely to outperform China's PMI from late spring to late fall, thanks to flawed seasonals.

26 August. 2016 EZ Economic Bulls Checked by IFO and INSEE Business Surveys (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey in Germany was a nasty downside surprise for markets. The business climate index slipped to 106.2 in August, from 108.3 in July, well below the consensus forecast for a modest rise. In addition, the expectations index slid ominously to 100.1, from a revised 102.1 in July.

3 November 2017 Brazilian Manufacturing Continued to Support the Recovery in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector continued to support the economy in Q3. The underlying tr end in output is rising and leading indicators point to further growth in the near term.

8 November 2017 New Fed Governors Likely to be Dovishly-Inclined, up to a Point (Publication Centre)

The impending retirement of New York Fed president Dudley creates yet another vacancy on the FOMC.

26 April 2019 Will an Inventory Unwind Stymie the Economy in Q2? (Publication Centre)

The economy's resilience in the first quarter of this year, in the midst of heightened Brexit uncertainty, can be attributed partly to a boost from no-deal Brexit precautionary stockpiling.

8 November 2018 September GDP Set To Undershoot the Consensus (Publication Centre)

Friday's GDP report likely will fuel concerns the economy has little underlying momentum. Granted, quarter-on-quarter growth probably sped up to 0.6% in Q3--exceeding the economy's potential rate--from 0.4% in Q2.

8 November 2018 Fed on Hold Today, but Zero Real Rates won't Slow the Labor Market (Publication Centre)

The Fed today will do nothing to rates and won't materially change the language of the post-meeting statement.

3 November. 2016 MPC to Catch Out Markets Again with Lingering Dovish Tone (Publication Centre)

Markets are pricing-in just a 10% chance of the MPC cutting interest rates again within the next six months, odds that look too low given the strong likelihood that the economic recovery loses more pace.

25 Nov. 2015 Privatisations Conceal Underlying Health of Public Finances (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor is likely to announce plans for additional public sector asset sales in today's Autumn Statement, to help arrest the unanticipated rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio this year. But privatisations rarely improve the underlying health of the public finances, partly because assets seldom are sold for their full value. And the Chancellor is running out of viable assets to privatise; the low-hanging, juiciest fruits have already been plucked.

25 Nov. 2015 Do September's Weak Sales Data Signal Trouble in Mexico? (Publication Centre)

Improving fundamentals have supported private spending in Mexico during the last few quarters. This week's soft retail sales report does not change the picture of a strong underlying trend in consumption. Sales were weaker than expected, falling 1.1% month-to-month in September, but this followed a 1.5% jump in August, and average gains of 1.1% in the previous three months. Mexican retail sales are much more volatile than in most developed economies, and we have been expecting mean reversion following rapid gains during the first half of the year and most of Q3.

*November 2017 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's social contract has changed...Fed normalisation to test the new paradism

25 January 2019 A Positive Outlook for the Brazilian Economy will Support the BRL (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in Brazil, coupled with the message from President Bolsonaro at the World Economic Forum, vowing to meet the country's fiscal targets and reduce distortions, support our benign inflation view and monetary policy forecasts for this year.

31 October. 2016 Mexico and Brazil Are Stabilizing at Different Speeds, For Now (Publication Centre)

While we were out, the economic news in LatAm was mostly positive. The main upside surprise came from Mexico, with the IGAE activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--rising 2.9% year-over-year in August, up from 1.2% in July, and an average of 2.4% in Q2. A modest rebound was anticipated, but the headline was much better than we and the markets expected.

25 January 2017 The EZ Economy is Performing Strongly, But Inflation is Picking Up (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy is in fine shape, according to the latest PMI data. The composite EZ PMI fell trivially to 54.3 in January, but remains strong. A marginal dip in the services index offset a small increase in the manufacturing PMI to a cyclical high of 55.1. These data tell a story of a strong private sector that continues to support GDP growth.

25 Jan. 2016 Last Week's Data Reinforce Brazil's Doves - Rates are Now on Hold (Publication Centre)

The bad news on economic activity keeps coming for Brazil. The formal payroll employment report-- CAGED--for December was very weak, with 120K net jobs eliminated, compared to a 40K net destruction in December 2014, according to our seasonal adjustment. The severe downturn has translated into huge job losses. The economy eliminated 1.5 million jobs last year, compared to 152K gains in 2014. Last year's job destruction was the worst since the data series started in 1992. The payroll losses have been broad-based, but manufacturing has been hit very hard, with 606K jobs eliminated, followed by civil construction and services. Since the end of 2014, the crisis has hit one sector after another.

25 February 2019 Manufacturing Continues to Weaken, no Floor Yet in Sight (Publication Centre)

Last week's data added yet more weight to our view that manufacturing is in deep trouble, and that the bottom has not yet been reached.

9 January 2018 Ignore November Dip in German Factory Orders Trend is Still Rising (Publication Centre)

The upturn in German manufacturing orders waned slightly towards the end of 2017; factory orders fell 0.4% month-to-month in November.

9 Jan. 2015 - Expect Another Robust Payroll Report - Watch Hourly Wages Too (Publication Centre)

Most of the evidence points to a robust December employment report today, though we doubt the headline number will match the heights seen in November, when the initial estimate showed payrolls up 321K. We look for 275K.

25 January 2019 The ECB Admits it Might not be Able to Raise Rates in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The ECB made no major policy changes yesterday.

25 July. 2016 EZ Sentiment Looks Resilient in the Face of Brexit...For Now (Publication Centre)

Friday's July PMI reports presented investors with a rather confusing story. The composite PMI in the Eurozone fell trivially to 52.9 in July, from 53.1 in June, despite rising PMIs in Germany and France. The final data on 3 August will give the full story, but Markit noted that private sector growth outside the core slowed to its weakest pace since December 2014.

3 Sept. 2015 No Additional Easing, but ECB to Face Tough Questions on Inflation (Publication Centre)

Today's ECB meeting will be accompanied by an update of the staff projections, where the inflation outlook will be in the spotlight. The June forecasts predicted an average inflation rate of 0.3% year-over-year this year, currently requiring a rather steep increase in inflation towards 1.1% at the end of the year. We think this is achievable, but we doubt the ECB is willing to be as bold, and it is reasonable to assume this year's forecast will be revised down a notch.

9 April 2018 Hard Data Suggest that the German Economy Stalled in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production report in Germany capped a miserable week for economic data in the Eurozone's largest economy.

4 December 2017 Hefty Tax Cuts at Full Employment Make no Sense, but they're Coming (Publication Centre)

It's not our job to pontificate on the merits, or otherwise, of the tax cut bill from a political perspective.

9 Aug 2019 Still No Recession Signalled by Financial Market Indicators (Publication Centre)

Financial markets have gone into another tailspin over the last fortnight, triggered by rising concern about the possibility of a no-deal Brexit and President Trump's threat of further tariffs on Chinese goods.

9 August 2018 June GDP Data to Show Economy has Little Underlying Momentum (Publication Centre)

Investors with long sterling positions should not pin their hopes on Friday's GDP report to reverse some of the losses endured over the last week.

29 November 2017 Eurozone GDP Growth Will Slow Soon, Will Markets Care? (Publication Centre)

Headline money supply growth in the Eurozone has averaged 5% year-over-year since the beginning of 2015; yesterday's October data did not change that story.

9 December. 2016 The Oil Hit Spread Widely Across the Economy - Now, it's Over (Publication Centre)

A core element of our relatively upbeat macro view before the implementation of fiscal stimulus under the new administration is that the ending of the drag from falling capex in the oil sector will have quite wide, positive implications for growth. The recovery in direct oil sector spending is clear enough; it will just track the rising rig count, as usual.

26 August. 2016 No Clear Steer Likely From Yellen Today, After the Spring Debacle (Publication Centre)

Chair Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole at 10am Eastern time today has the potential to move markets substantially, but that's not our core expectation. It's more likely, we think, that Dr. Yellen will stick to the core FOMC view, which remains that "only gradual increases" in rates will be required, and that rates are "likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run".

3 Nov. 2015 Truck Sales Soaring, Lifted by Cheap Gas, Robust Confidence (Publication Centre)

Most of the time, markets view auto sales as a bellwether indicator of the state of the consumer. Vehicles are the biggest-ticket item for most households, after housing, and most people buy cars and trucks with credit. Auto purchase decisions, therefore, tend not to be taken lightly, and so are a good guide to peoples' underlying confidence and cashflow. We appreciate that things were different at the peak of the boom, when anyone could get a loan and homeowners could tap the rising values of their properties, but that's not the situation today.

26 May. 2015 Is Core Inflation Really Rising, or are the Recent Gains Just Noise? (Publication Centre)

After four straight above-trend increases in the core CPI, you could be forgiven for thinking that something is afoot. It's still too soon, though to rush to judgment. The data show three previous streaks of 0.2%-or-bigger over four-month periods since the crash of 2008, and none of them were sustained.

8 August 2018 July Brought Neither Feast Nor Famine for Retailers (Publication Centre)

The run-up to the release of the official retail sales figures has become so congested with other indicators, following alterations by the ONS to its publication schedule, that we now have to preview the data earlier than usual.

26 Nov. 2015 The Chancellor Leaves the Fiscal Shackles Firmly in Place (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor used the Autumn Statement to shift the composition of the fiscal consolidation slightly away from spending cuts and towards tax hikes. But in overall macroeconomic terms, he changed little. The fiscal stance is still set to be extremely tight in 2016 and 2017, ensuring that the economic recovery will lose more momentum.

8 August. 2016 Brazil's Economy is Stabilizing. Mexico's is Slowing, Temporarily (Publication Centre)

While we were out, Brazil's economic and political position continued to improve. The recession eased in the second quarter and into July. Industrial production, for example, increased in June for the fourth consecutive month, rising by 1.1% month-to-month.

8 August. 2016 The Term Funding Scheme is Not a Game-Changer (Publication Centre)

Economists failed to foresee the U.K.'s growth spurt in 2013 partly because they underestimated the positive impact of the Funding for Lending Scheme, launched in mid-2012. In fact, the FLS was so successful at stimulating mortgage lending that it had to be "refocussed" to apply solely to business lending in January 2014.

26 June 2018 The German Economy is No Longer Firing on All Cylinders (Publication Centre)

The verdict from the German business surveys is in; economic growth probably slowed further in Q2.

26 June. 2015 The ECB Will Fight to Maintain "Normality" in EZ Bond Markets (Publication Centre)

The impasse between Greece and its creditors has roiled Eurozone bond markets, but the ECB is likely ready to restore calm, if necessary. We think a further widening of short-term interest rate spreads would especially worry the central bank, as it would represent a challenge to forward guidance. For now, spreads remain well below the average since the birth of the Eurozone, even after the latest increase.

26 March 2018 Smoot and Hawley are Still Dead, Trump is not Resurrecting them... Yet (Publication Centre)

Everyone needs to take a deep breath: This is not 1930, and Smoot-Hawley all over again.

26 November 2018 An Amber Alert Warning from the Eurozone PMIs in November (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic reports delivered more sobering news for the euro area economy.

3 June 2019 Trade is Now Trump's Weapon for Everything, but it Shoots Backwards (Publication Centre)

The chance of a self-inflicted, unnecessary weakening in the economy this year, and perhaps even a recession, has increased markedly in the wake of the president's announcement on Friday that tariffs will be applied to all imports from Mexico, from June 10.

7 November. 2016 Is Sterling Now Back on a Sustained Recovery Path? (Publication Centre)

Upbeat PMIs, the MPC's abandonment of its easing bias and the High Court ruling that only a parliamentary vote--and not the Prime Minister--can trigger Article 50, all helped sterling to make up some lost ground last week.

4 November. 2016 October Payrolls Likely Were Good Enough (Publication Centre)

For analysts with a broadly positive view of the U.S. economy, it is tempting to argue that the slowdown in payroll growth this year reflects supply constraints, as the pool of qualified labor dries up.

7 November 2018 Should a 2019 General Election be the Base Case? (Publication Centre)

Speculation that another general election is imminent is rarely out of the news. At present, betting markets see about a 35% chance of another election in 2019, broadly the same chance as one in 2022, when it is currently scheduled to be held.

7 Oct. 2015 Are Payrolls Slowing Because There's No-one Left to Hire? (Publication Centre)

In the absence of market-moving data today, we want to take a closer look at the labor market, and, specifically, the idea that payroll growth is slowing because firms cannot find staff they consider suitably qualified for the jobs available. Every indicator of labor demand, with the sole exception of manufacturing-specific surveys, is consistent with very rapid payroll growth, well in excess of 200K per month.

7 Oct. 2015 Banxico Confirms No Rush to Hike Interest Rates, With the Fed on Hold (Publication Centre)

The September Banxico minutes restated that the U.S. Fed's first interest rate hike is the key event awaited by Mexican policymakers. Banxico's board of governors voted unanimously on September 21st to keep the main interest rate at a record-low 3%.

26 November 2018 Is a May Rate Hike Nailed-on if a No-Deal Brexit Is Avoided (Publication Centre)

The Bank of England will be dragged into the political arena on Thursday, when it sends the Treasury Committee its analysis of the economic impact of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration, as well as a no-deal, no- transition outcome.

26 November 2018 The Coming Year won't Provide Much Respite for Asian Economies (Publication Centre)

The past year has been difficult for Asian economies, with trade wars, natural disasters, and misguided policies, to name a few, putting a dampener on growth.

3 July. 2015 Surprising But Not Sustainable Jump in Brazil's Industrial Output (Publication Centre)

The second quarter is over but it is too early to give a reliable forecast of the pace of Brazilian GDP growth. However, an array of leading and coincident indicators points to a steep contraction in Q2 and a bleak second half of the year. Unemployment is leaping higher, along with inflation and household debt, and the ongoing monetary and fiscal tightening will further hurt the real economy ahead.

30 November. 2016 ADP Likely to Signal Decent Payroll Growth (Publication Centre)

The November ADP employment report today likely will show private payrolls rose by about 180K. We have no reason to think that the trend in payroll growth has changed much in recent months, though the official data do appear to be biased to the upside in the fourth quarter, probably as a result of seasonal adjustment problems triggered by the crash of 2008. We can't detect any clear seasonal fourth quarter bias in the ADP numbers.

8 December 2017 Investment is Now the Key Driver of GDP Growth. Will it Continue? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed Q3 GDP data in the Eurozone confirmed that the economy has gone from strength to strength this year.

4 January 2019 No Need to Lower 2019 Economic Forecasts for Equity Market Drama (Publication Centre)

The 15% fall in the FTSE 100 since its May 2018 peak undoubtedly is an unwelcome development for the economy, but past experience suggests we shouldn't rush to revise down our forecasts for GDP growth.

26 February 2019 Weak Industrial Output will Continue to Hurt the Mexican Economy in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirmed that the Mexican economy ended Q4 poorly; policymakers will take note.

26 Jan. 2016 IFO Points to Slow Start to Q1 for the German Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO report reinforced the message from the PMIs that the Eurozone economy stumbled slightly at the beginning of the first quarter. The headline business climate index fell to an 11-month low of 107.3 in January, from a revised 108.6 in December, hit mainly by a drop in the expectations component. Intensified market volatility and worries over further weakness in the Chinese economy likely were the main drivers. Last week's dovish message from Mr. Draghi, however, came after the survey's cut-off date, leaving us cautiously optimistic for a rebound next month.

4 Feb. 2015 Divergent Manufacturing Stories in LatAm's Biggest Economies (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing indexes for January showed a small improvement for the biggest economies in LatAm: Brazil and Mexico. In Brazil, the PMI manufacturing index increased marginally to 50.7 in December from 50.2 in November, thanks to stronger output and new orders components, which rose together for the first time in ten months.

26 February 2019 No-Deal Brexit Risk Likely Will Fall Further this Week (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister's announcement on Sunday that the meaningful vote in parliament on her Brexit deal will be delayed from this week, until March 12, came as no surprise after a series of prior postponements.

26 February 2018 Is the Economy's Speed Limit Higher than the MPC Thinks? (Publication Centre)

November's interest rate rise, which took investors by surprise, was triggered in part by the MPC slashing its estimate of trend growth to 1.5%, from an implicit 2.0%.

3 Nov. 2015 Inflation Will Rise Faster Than the ECB Expects Next Year (Publication Centre)

Mixed comments last week by members of the governing council raised doubts over the ECB's resolve to add further stimulus next month. But the message from senior figures and Mr. Draghi remains that the Central Bank intends to "re-assess" its monetary policy tools in December. Our main reading of last month's meeting is that Mr. Draghi effectively pre-committed to further easing. This raises downside risks in the event of no action, but the President normally doesn't disappoint the market in these instances.

8 March 2017 Brazil's Economy Struggled Late Last Year, Will it Grow in Q1? (Publication Centre)

Markets have been positively surprised by Brazil's rapid disinflation, the efforts at fiscal reform, and the prospect of growth in the economy this year. The Ibovespa index is now above its pre-crisis high and the real has approached the key level of three per USD in recent months. But the latest GDP report, released yesterday, showed that the economy struggled in Q4. Real GDP fell 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, worse than the revised 0.7% drop in Q3.

26 Jan. 2016 The Collapse in Oil Prices Won't Reinvigorate the Economy in 2016 (Publication Centre)

The response of U.K. producers and consumers to lower oil prices could not have been more different to those on the other side of the Atlantic. Counter-intuitively, U.K. oil production has grown strongly over the last year, while investment hasn't collapsed to the same extent as in the U.S., yet. Meanwhile, U.K. households have thrown caution to the wind and already have spent the windfall from the previous drop in oil prices, unlike their more prudent--so far--U.S. counterparts. With the costs still to come but most of the benefits already enjoyed, lower oil prices will be neutral for 2016 U.K. GDP growth, at best.

8 July. 2016 June Payrolls Should be Better than May, but no Return to Trend Yet (Publication Centre)

We have had a modest rethink of our June payroll forecast and have nudged up our number to 150K, still below the 180K consensus. Our forecast has changed because we have re-estimated some of our models, not because of the 172K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls. ADP is a model-based estimate, not a reliable survey indicator.

4 June 2018 All the Bogeymen are Back in the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

At the start of the year, #euroboom was the moniker used in financial media to describe the EZ economy.

4 June 2018 The Economy Should be Less Lethargic in 2019 (Publication Centre)

We're relatively optimistic--yes, you read that correctly--on the outlook for the U.K. economy in 2019.

4 June. 2015 Trade will add to Q2 growth, but normalization still some way off (Publication Centre)

The April foreign trade numbers strongly support our view that foreign trade will make a hefty positive contribution to second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting a massive 1.9 percentage points in the first. The headline April deficit fell further than we expected, thanks in part to an unsustainable jump in aircraft exports and a decline in the oil deficit, but the big story was the 4.2% plunge in non- oil imports.

03 October. 2016 The Economy's Near-Term Resilience Has Brittle Foundations (Publication Centre)

Last week's official data unequivocally indicated that the Brexit vote has not had a detrimental impact on the economy yet.

26 January 2018 The Euro and EZ Bond Yields are not for Turning, Even by Mr Draghi (Publication Centre)

As expected, the ECB made no changes to its policy stance today. The refi and deposit rates were left at 0.00% and -0.4%, respectively, and the pace of purchases under QE was maintained at €30B per month.

8 July. 2016 German Economy Likely Stalled in Q2, but Don't Forget the Q1 Surge (Publication Centre)

German GDP growth jumped in the first quarter, but monthly economic data suggest the economy all but stalled in Q2. Yesterday's industrial production data are a case in point. Output slid 1.3% month-tomonth in May, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -0.4% from a revised 0.8% gain in April. Adding insult to injury, the month-to-month number for April was revised down by 0.3 percentage points

8 July. 2015 Mexican Consumers Upbeat, as Economic Fundamentals Improve (Publication Centre)

Household sentiment in Mexico continues to improve, consistent with tailwinds from low inflation, accommodative monetary policy, and the improving labor market. The consumers confidence index rose to 94.7 in June from 92.0 in May, with four of the five components improving, especially big-ticket purchasing expectations and expectations for the economy.

30 Apr. 2015 FOMC acknowledges slowdown in Q1, but core view unchanged (Publication Centre)

The FOMC delivered no big surprises yesterday, but seemed keen to make it clear that policymakers are sticking to their core views, despite the slowdown in growth in the first quarter. Unlike the March statement, yesterday's note pointed out that the slowdown came in the winter months, though it did not directly blame the weather for the sluggishness in growth.

25 August. 2015 The Stock Drop is Unwelcome, but the Market is not the Economy (Publication Centre)

If you want to know what's going to happen to the real economy over, say, the next year, don't look to the stock market for reliable clues. The relationship between swings in stock prices over single quarters and GDP growth over the following year is nonexistent, as our next chart shows.

16 August 2017 Better Q2 Data in Colombia Ease Pressure on BanRep, for now (Publication Centre)

Colombian activity data released this week were weak, but mostly better than we expected. Real GDP rose 0.7% quarter- on-quarter in Q2, in contrast to the 0.3% fall in Q1, when the economy was hit by the lagged effect of last year's monetary tightening and the one-off VAT increase.

2 Nov. 2015 Brazil's Central Bank Minutes Underline Policymakers' Problems (Publication Centre)

Banxico left Mexico's benchmark interest rate at a record low of 3% last week, maintaining its neutral tone and indicating that the balance of risks has worsened for growth, while the risks for future inflation are unchanged. Policymakers acknowledged the external headwinds to the Mexican economy, but underscored that private consumption has gathered strength thanks to improving employment, low inflation, higher overseas remittances, and better credit conditions.

2 Nov. 2015 Inflation Report Likely to Jolt Markets Back to Their Senses (Publication Centre)

It's probably just a coincidence that "Super Thursday" coincides with Guy Fawkes night, when Britons launch fireworks to commemorate an attempt to blow up parliament in 1605. Nonetheless, the Monetary Policy Committee looks likely to light the touch-paper for a big rise in market interest rates and sterling, by signalling that it intends to raise Bank Rate in the Spring, about six months earlier than investors currently expect.

11 July 2019 GDP Growth Still isn't Slow Enough to Warrant a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The economy looks to be in better shape following May's GDP report than widely feared.

17 Nov. 2015 Core Inflation Creeping Stealthily Higher - Soon, Markets Will Notice (Publication Centre)

The upturn in core CPI inflation this year has passed by almost unnoticed in the markets and media. In the year to September, the core CPI rose 1.9%, up from a low of 1.6% in January. But that's still a very low rate, and with core PCE inflation unchanged at only 1.3% over the same period, it's easy to see why investors have remained relaxed. In our view, though, things are about to change, because a combination of very adverse base effects and gradually increasing momentum in the monthly numbers, is set to lift both core inflation measures substantially over the next few months.

2 May 2018 The Credit Impulse is now Negative, Clouding the Near-Term GDP Outlook (Publication Centre)

The March money and credit figures provide more evidence that the economy's weak start to the year won't be just a blip.

18 Sept. 2015 Global Risks Keep Fed on Hold - December Now in the Frame (Publication Centre)

The Yellen Fed acted--or rather, didn't act--true to form yesterday, preferring to take its chances with inflation one or two years down the line rather than surprising the markets by hiking rates and risking the consequences. Even before Dr. Yellen's tenure, the Fed has long been reluctant to defy market expectations on the day of FOMC meetings. Engineering a shift in market views of the likely broad path of policy is one thing, but shocking investors with unexpected action on specific days is another matter altogether.

12 January 2017 Eurozone Equities in 2017: Another Year of Dashed Hopes? (Publication Centre)

A strong December didn't change the story of another year of Eurozone equity underperformance in 2016. The total return of the MSCI EU, ex-UK, last year was a paltry 3.5%, compared to 11.6% and 10.6% for the S&P 500 and MSCI EM respectively. In principle, the conditions are in place for a reversal in this sluggish performance are present. Equities in the euro area do best when excess liquidity--defined as M1 growth less GDP growth and inflation--is rising.

2 Nov. 2015 Inflation to Rise Rapidly, but It won't Stop the ECB in December (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone limped out of headline deflation in October, with inflation rising to 0.0% from -0.1% in September, helped by higher core and food inflation. Energy prices fell 8.7% year-over-year, up trivially after a 8.9% drop in September, but base effects will push up the year-over-rate significantly in coming months. Core inflation edged higher to 1.0% from 0.9% in September, due to 0.1 percentage point increases in both non-energy goods and services inflation.

2 Nov. 2015 Media and Market Biases Leading Investors up the Wrong Path (Publication Centre)

We can't recall a time when we have disagreed so strongly with the consensus narrative, in both the media and the markets, about the state of the U.S. economy. We think both investors and the commentariat are too bearish on growth and too complacent about inflation risks, and as a result, insufficiently worried about the speed with which interest rates will rise over the next couple of years.

2 Oct. 2015 Economic Activity Remains Weak in Chile - But the BCCh Will Act (Publication Centre)

Chile's economic indicators for July were unreservedly weak, confirming that the economic recovery remains sluggish. The industrial production index--comprising mining, manufacturing, and utility output--fell by 5.2% year-over-year in August, after a 1.7% contraction in July. Mining production suffered a sharp 9.3% year-over-year contraction, due mainly to an 8.3% fall in copper production, as strikes and maintenance works badly hit the industry.

18 November. 2016 Yellen Still Thinks Inflation Will Hit the Target in Two Years. Hmm. (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen's Testimony yesterday pretended the election hadn't happened, and ignored the incoming administration's plans for a huge fiscal stimulus. She did address the issue under questioning, though, pointing out that fiscal stimulus could have inflationary consequences and that the Fed will have to factor-in to its decisions whatever Congress decides to do to taxes and spending.

18 Nov. 2015 Weak Manufacturing Won't Push the EZ Economy into Recession (Publication Centre)

Historical evidence suggests that we should be worried about the relative weakness in the Eurozone's manufacturing sector. Industrial production ex-construction has historically been a key indicator of the business cycle, despite accounting for a comparatively modest 19% of total value-added in the euro area. In all three previous major downturns, underperformance in the manufacturing sector sounded the alarm six-to-nine months in advance that the economy was about to slip into recession.

2 November. 2016 Producer Price Rises Will Bear Down on Domestic Demand (Publication Centre)

October's Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey indicates that producers are not shying away from passing on to their customers the higher costs stemming from sterling's depreciation.

2 November 2018 Will the October Stock Market Swoon Hurt the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Last month was sobering month for equity investors in the Eurozone, and indeed in the global economy as a whole.

17 November 2017 Manufacturing Output Rebounds, but no Boom Coming (Publication Centre)

The spectacular 1.3% rebound in manufacturing output last month -- the biggest jump in seven years, apart from an Easter-distorted April gain -- does not change our core view that activity in the sector is no longer accelerating.

2 November 2017 No Immediate Change to Rate Forecasts if Powell Nominated  (Publication Centre)

After a slew of media reports in recent days, we have to expect that the president will today announce that Fed governor Jerome Powell is his pick to replace Janet Yellen as Chair.

18 Sept. 2015 No Need to Put the Weekend on Hold for Greek Election Results (Publication Centre)

Greece goes to the polls this weekend, but unlike the chaos in the summer, we doubt it will be a nail-biting experience for investors. Polls put Syriza and the conservative New Democracy neck-and-neck, but neither party likely will be able to form a majority. Syriza has ruled out a grand coalition, which potentially means tricky negotiations with minority parties. But we are confident that any new government will be committed to euro membership, and a constructive dialogue with the EU and IMF.

2 May 2018 The BoK is on a Mission, and will Hike in May, it's not About Inflation (Publication Centre)

We expect the BoK to hike this month, believing that it's necessary to curtail household debt growth now, in order to prevent a sharper economic slowdown as the Fed hiking cycle continues, China slows, and trade risks unfold.

16 January 2018 Will the BoJ's Stealth Taper Damage Japan's Economic Growth? (Publication Centre)

Japanese M2 growth slowed sharply in December, to 3.6% year-over-year, from 4.0% in November, with M3 growth weakening similarly. It is tempting to ask if the BoJ's stealth taper finally is damaging broad money growth.

19 April 2017 Another Political Hand Grenade is Thrown in European Politics (Publication Centre)

Economic news in Europe continues to take a back-seat to volatility in politics. Yesterday's announcement by U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May that she is seeking a snap general election on June 8th cast further doubt over what exactly Brexit will look like.

11 February 2019 Banxico Dials Down its Hawkish Tone, but no Rate Cuts Until late Q3 (Publication Centre)

Banxico's monetary policy meeting on Thursday was the first to be attended by the two new deputy governors, Jonathan Heath and Gerardo Esquivel, economists appointed by AMLO.

Financial Times - Economists react as eurozone unemployment hits fresh post-crisis low (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone unemployment

2 June. 2015 Higher Inflation is the Next Big Macroeconomic Story in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures are slowly, but surely, rising in the Eurozone. Advance data indicate that inflation in Germany rose to 0.7% year-over-year in May, up from 0.5% in April. Reduced drag from the non-core components is the main driver, with energy prices rebounding, and food prices now rising steadily at 1.4% year-over-year.

16 July 2018 No Hard Evidence that Tariffs are Hurting Business Investment... Yet (Publication Centre)

We can see no hard evidence, yet, that the expanding trade war with China and other U.S. trading partners is hitting business investment.

2 June 2017 The Manufacturing Sector won't put the Economy Back on Track (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector's recovery has sped up since Q1, according to Markit's latest survey, but growth still looks too weak to prevent the overall economy from struggling again in Q2.

The Guardian - Fears of no-deal Brexit push British export orders close to year low (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

16 January 2018 Not Quite Bondmageddon, but the Writing is on the Wall (Publication Centre)

The 20bp increase in 10-year yields over the past month doesn't live up to the hype; bondmageddon it was not.

MAIL ONLINE - US home prices still trend lower in November (Media Centre)

US home prices rose in November from October but the underlying trend continued to point to a slowdown in price gains, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index released Tuesday

2 March 2018 January Money Data Suggest the Economy remains Listless (Publication Centre)

January's money and credit data broadly support our view that the economy still lacks momentum.

Financial Times - 'Shackles are still on': analysts respond to UK economic growth data (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. growth data

08 Mar. 2016 Is the Economy Better Placed to Withstand the Fiscal Squeeze? (Publication Centre)

The consensus view that the recovery won't lose more momentum this year seems to assume that the U.K. economy is better placed to deal with the intensification of the fiscal squeeze than earlier this decade. We do not share this optimism.

12 Jan. 2016 Drop in November Production to Set the Tone for Q4 GDP (Publication Centre)

November's industrial production figures, released today, look set to surprise the consensus to the downside, underscoring our view that the economic recovery is continuing to lose momentum. Moreover, with sterling remaining uncompetitive, despite depreciating over recent weeks, and lower oil prices making extracting oil from the North Sea unprofitable, the industrial sector likely will impede the economic recovery further in 2016.

12 Jan. 2015 Recent Data Point to Downside Risks for the Brazilian Economy (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in Brazil is not likely to improve significantly this year. Our pessimism was underscored by the November industrial production data last week, showing a contraction of 0.7%, and pushing output to its lowest level since June.

19 Apr. 2016 Weaker Dollar Will Boost Q2 Retail Sales, but not March Consumption (Publication Centre)

If we're right in our view that the strength of the dollar has been a major factor depressing the rate of growth of nominal retail sales, the weakening of the currency since January should soon be reflected in stronger-looking numbers. In real terms--which is what matters for GDP and, ultimately, the lab or market--nothing will change, but perceptions are important and markets have not looked kindly on the dollar-depressed sales data.

10 June 2019 Governor Gang Hints at the Trade War Policy Path (Publication Centre)

In an interview with Bloomberg on Friday, PBoC Governor Yi Gang hinted at the intended policy if the trade war escalates.

18 Nov. 2015 Colombia's Central Bank is Not Finished Tightening Yet (Publication Centre)

Colombia's worrying inflation picture suggests the Central Bank will likely hike rates at least once more before the end of the year, attempting to anchor expectations. The October 30th BanRep minutes, in which the board surprised the market by hiking the main rate by 50bp to 5.25%--consensus was a 25bp increase--made it clear that the decision was based on fear of increased inflation risks, coupled with an improving domestic demand picture. The 50bp hike was not agreed unanimously, with dissenters arguing that the bank should adopt a more gradual approach due the high degree of uncertainty over the global economy. In addition, those favoring a 25bp hike argued that it would be better to move at a predictable pace to avoid possible market turmoil.

15 Oct. 2015 Headline Inflation to Slip Below Zero, but Not For Long (Publication Centre)

The headline CPI inflation rate almost certainly dipped below zero in September, barring a startling and deeply improbable surge in the core. We look for a 0.4% month-to-month headline drop, driven by an 11% plunge in gasoline prices, pushing the year-over-year rate to -0.3%. This is of no real economic significance, not least because hugely unfavorable base effects mean the year-over-year rate almost certainly will rise sharply over the next few months, reaching about 1¾% as soon as January.

NEW YORK TIMES - Fed Might Not Have the Luxury of Slow and Steady Rate Increases (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. interest rates

10 January 2019 Risks to the Consensus for November GDP Lie to the Upside (Publication Centre)

It's hardly surprising that the consensus forecast for month-to-month growth in November GDP, released on Friday, is a mere 0.1%, given the flow of downbeat business surveys.

15 July. 2016 The Mexican Economy is at the Mercy of Softening Spending (Publication Centre)

Industrial data released this week showed that the Mexican economy stumbled during the second quarter. Private consumption, however, continues to rise, albeit at a more modest pace than in recent months. The ANTAD same store sales survey rose 5.3% year-over-year in June, up from 2.8% in May, but this is misleading.

20 Feb. 2015 Data Surprises Don't Tell Us Much About the Economy (Publication Centre)

At the headline level, much of the recent U.S. macro dataflow has been disappointing. January retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and both ISM surveys--manufacturing and non-manufacturing-- undershot consensus, following a sharp and unexpected drop in December durable goods orders.

15 June. 2016 Will Political Risk and Uncertainty Overwhelm the EZ Economy? (Publication Centre)

Based on key economic indicators, the Eurozone economy is doing splendidly, relative to its performance in recent years. Real GDP has been growing at 1.6%-to-1.7% year-over-year since the first quarter of last year, bank credit has expanded, and the unemployment rate is declining.

11 November. 2016 Eyes of Hurricanes Pass, then the Real Uproar Begins (Publication Centre)

Uncertainty about the U.S. economic and political outlook, following Donald Trump's presidential win, likely will cast a long shadow over EM in general and LatAm in particular. On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump argued for tearing up NAFTA and building a border wall.

MARKETWATCH - You should trust the BLS more than the Dow, economist says (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the U.S. Economy

15 Mar. Will gilts treat higher borrowing forecasts nonchalantly again? (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor has prepared the public and the markets for a ratcheting-up of the already severe austerity plans in the Budget on Wednesday. George Osborne warned on Sunday that he would announce "...additional savings, equivalent to 50p in every £100 the government spends by the end of the decade", raising an extra £4B a year.

New York Times - Fed Predicts Modest Economic Growth From Tax Cut (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the Fed's growth forecast

18 Dec. 2014 Outright Deflation is Now a Real Risk for the Eurozone in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the euro area remains under pressure, with both the core and the energy components contributing to the downward trend evident in our first chart. Headline inflation fell to 0.3% year-over-year in November, from 0.4% in October, and we expect a further decline this month.

20 January 2017 Retail Sales Likely Finished the Fourth Quarter on a Softer Note (Publication Centre)

Today's official figures likely will show that retail sales weakened a touch in December. Indeed, we think that the consensus forecast for a 0.1% month-to-month decline in sales volumes is too timid; we look for a 0.5% drop. Retail sales surged by 1.8% month-to-month in October and then rose by 0.2% in November, so a correction is overdue. Clothing sales, in particular, likely fell sharply in December.

20 July. 2015 Brazil's Economic Woes Set to Continue Over the Third Quarter (Publication Centre)

Brazil's April economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--surprised to the downside, again. The IBC-BR index was unchanged month-to-month but contracted a dreadful 4.8% year-over-year, down from a revised 3.2% contraction in March. These results imply Q2 GDP of about -1.9% quarter-on-quarter, much worse than the 0.2% contraction in Q1. The release offers no details, but the report signals a continued steep, steady deterioration.

20 July. 2015 Cyclical Recovery, but Structural Relapse in the Italian Economy (Publication Centre)

The cyclical recovery in Italy likely strengthened in the second quarter. Real GDP rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, and we think the e conomy repeated, or even slightly, beat this number in Q2. This would mark the strongest performance in four years, but it will take more than a business cycle upturn to solve the Italian economy's structural challenges. Government and non-financial corporate debt has risen to 220% of GDP since 2008, and non-performing loans--NPLs--have sky rocketed.

20 Jan. 2016 Wage Growth Will Push the "Data Driven" Governor to Hike this Year (Publication Centre)

Bank Governor Mark Carney reiterated in a speech yesterday that he wants to see sustained momentum in GDP growth, domestic cost pressures firm and core inflation rise further towards 2%, before raising interest rates. We doubt he will have long to wait on the last two points, given the tightness of the labour market.

18 July 2018 Powell Says Everything's on Track Gradual Hike to Continue, "for now" (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell delivered no great surprises in his semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday, but he did hint, at least, at the idea that interest rates might at some point have to rise more quickly than shown in the current dot plot: "... the FOMC believes that - for now - the best way forward is to keep gradually raising the federal funds rate [our italics]."

1 December 2017 Blame Italy for November's Undershoot in EZ Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the euro area edged higher in November, but our prediction of a rebound in the core proved to be wrong. Headline inflation increased to 1.5% in November, from 1.4% in October.

10 January 2019 Fed Doves Sound, Well, Dovish... but don't Ignore the Warning from Evans (Publication Centre)

The latest batch of FOMC speakers yesterday, together with the December minutes--participants said "the committee could afford to be patient about further policy firming"--offered nothing to challenge the idea, now firmly embedded in markets, that the next rate hike will come no sooner than June, if it comes at all.

CNBC - Greece is selling bonds again, but they're not out of the woods yet (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the Greek return to the market

10 November. 2016 Market Reaction to Trump Shows Britain is No Longer a Safe-haven (Publication Centre)

Donald Trump's victory casts a shadow of political uncertainty over what had appeared to be a decent outlook for the U.S economy. The U.K.'s trade and financial ties with the U.S., however, are small enough to mean that any downturn on the other side of the Atlantic will have little impact on Britain.

08 Jan. 2016 Sterling, Not EM Weakness, Will Hold Exports Back (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor argued in a speech on Thursday that the U.K.'s economic recovery is threatened by a "dangerous cocktail" of overseas risks, including slowing growth in the BRICs--Brazil, Russia, India, and China--and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Exports are set to struggle this year, but the strong pound, not weakness in emerging markets, will be the main drag.

Politico Money - Why you should worry a little bit about markets and the economy (Podcast) (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics pulls back the curtain on the economy with POLITICO's Ben White.

15 May 2017 Core Inflation Surprises Again, but the Trend Likely has not Turned (Publication Centre)

The failure of the core CPI to mean-revert in April, after the unexpected March drop, does not mean that the Fed can relax.

10 July. 2015 In or Out, the Greek Drama Will Reach its Denouement on Sunday (Publication Centre)

We don't know how Europe will look on Monday. If European officials are to be believed, Greece will either have agreed to bail-out terms to keep it inside the Eurozone, or it will be on its way out. "Deadlines" have come and gone for Greece, but this time really is different, because the banks are bust without further support from the ECB, and that will not be forthcoming without a bail-out deal.

DAILY TELEGRAPH - Surprise comeback for France as economy grows twice as fast as UK (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone economist Claus Vistesen comments on the latest GDP figures from France

2 October 2017 Revisions Leave Economy Looking Weaker, Undermining the Hawks (Publication Centre)

Last week's national accounts were a setback for the hawks on the MPC seeking to raise interest rates at the next meeting, on November 2.

15 November. 2016 Autos and Higher Gas Prices Will Flatter October Retail Sales Data (Publication Centre)

The combination of unexpectedly strong auto sales and rising gas prices should generate strong-looking headline retail sales numbers for October. We have no idea what to expect for November, with two-thirds of the month coming after the election, but the final pre- election sales report will look good.

15 November 2017 Increasing Political Volatility Outshines Strong Brazil Sales Data (Publication Centre)

Politics remain centre-stage in Brazil, despite positive news on the economic front. President Michel Temer's government continues to advance pension reform, despite the tight calendar and concerns about his political capital. But volatility is on the rise.

12 July 2017 Yellen Will Re-affirm Fed Policy. Expect no Revelations, or Dates (Publication Centre)

Chair Yellen has become quite good at not giving much away at her semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony.

DAILY TELEGRAPH - Germany's economic revival threatened by Greek crisis and Russian uncertainty (Media Centre)

A closely watched indicator of the German economy has come in weaker than analysts had anticipated, dampening hopes for the country's revival

15 March 2017 Low Mortgage Arrears Hide Rising Risks as the Economy Slows (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in households' income growth since the referendum has not pushed up mortgage default rates, so far. Employment grew by just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and 0.1% in Q4, well below the 0.5% average rate seen in the three years before the referendum.

12 June 2017 The Hung Parliament has Hidden Positives for the Economy (Publication Centre)

Britain's general election has led to another major step-up in political uncertainty, which conventional wisdom assumes will harm the economy. Perhaps surprisingly, however, the government's enfeebled state brings with it some major positives for the U.K.'s economic outlook.

MARKET WATCH - Fed will be scrambling to catch up with improving economy, forecaster says (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics is the winner of the MarketWatch Forecaster of the Month award for June.

17 September 2018 Hurricane Florence will Distort the Data, but not on Harvey's Scale (Publication Centre)

As we reach our deadline on Sunday afternoon, eastern time, Tropical Storm Florence continues to dump vast quantities of rain on the Carolinas, and is forecast to head through Kentucky and Tennessee, before heading north.

11 July. 2016 Jobs Overstate Economic Volatility, Wages Will Soon Matter More (Publication Centre)

Whatever you might think about the state of the U.S. economy, it is not as volatile as implied by the past few months' payroll numbers. Assuming steady productivity growth in line with the recent trend, the payroll data suggest the economy swung from bust to boom in one month, with not even a pause for breath.

17 Sept. 2015 No rate hike today - December a better bet than October? (Publication Centre)

We expect the Fed not to raise rates today. In the eyes of the waverers who will need to change their minds in order to trigger action, the latest data-- especially wages--do not make a compelling case for immediate action, and the obvious fragility of markets strengthens the case for doing nothing today. This is a Fed which in recent years has greatly preferred to err on the side of caution. With no immediate inflation threat, the waverers and the doves will take the view that the cost of delaying the first move until October or December is small. As far as we can tell, they are the majority on the committee.

12 July. 2016 Do Pricing Distortions Mean We Should Ignore Weak Help Wanted? (Publication Centre)

Judging from our inbox, economy bulls are pinning a great deal of hope on the idea that the collapse in the Help Wanted Online index is misleading, because the index is subject to distortions caused by shifts in pricing behavior in the online job advertising business. These distortions were analyzed in a recent Fed paper--click here to read on the Fed's website-- which makes a convincing case that at least some of the decline in the HWOL over the past half-year represents a change in recruiters' behavior rather than slowing in labor demand.

Financial Times - German economic confidence slides in March (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing the German Zew in April

16 July 2019 Italy's Economy is Still on the Ropes, even as Markets Soar (Publication Centre)

Financial markets and economic data don't always go hand-in-hand, but it is rare to find the divergence presently on display in Italy.

19 January 2018 December Retail Sales Likely Reversed Most of November's Gain (Publication Centre)

December's retail sales figures, released today, likely will show that the surge in spending in November was driven merely by people undertaking Christmas shopping earlier than in past years, due to Black Friday.

17 August 2017 The Manufacturing Recovery Continues, but no Boom in Sight (Publication Centre)

The elevated readings from the ISM manufacturing survey this year have not been followed by rapid growth in output. The headline ISM averaged 55.8 in the second quarter, a solid if unspectacular reading. But output rose by only 1.2% year-over-year, and by 1.4% on a quarterly annualized basis.

17 June 2019 China's Economy Faltered in May the New Tariff Hit is yet to Come (Publication Centre)

China's activity data for May were a mixed bag, but they broadly paint a consistent picture of a slowdown in economic growth from the first quarter.

1 February 2017 Mexico's Economy Was Strong in Q4, but the Outlook has Darkened (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of full-year 2016 GDP in Mexico indicates that growth gathered momentum over the second half of last year. But risks are now tilted to the downside, following the U.S. election. GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, after a 1.0% increase in Q3. Growth was much slower in the firs t half, as shown in our char t below.

1 Aug 2019 No-Deal Brexit: A Short Sharp Shock, or a Prolonged Decline? (Publication Centre)

We agree wholeheartedly with the consensus view that the economy would enter a recession in the event of a no-deal Brexit on October 31.

17 Dec. 2015 Core Inflation Lags the Economy, and Will Increase Next Year (Publication Centre)

Eurozone inflation continued its slow rebound last month. Final CPI data showed that inflation rose marginally to 0.2% in November from 0.1% in October, a bit higher than the initial estimate of 0.1%. The upward revision was due to marginally higher services inflation at 1.2%, compared to the initial 1.1% estimate. Non-energy goods inflation eased slightly to 0.5% from 0.6% last month. We have received push-back on our call for higher inflation next year, but core inflation is a lagging indicator, and it can rise independently of the story told by GDP or survey data. Core inflation tends to peak during recessions, and only starts falling later as prices are adjusted downwards, with a lag, to the cyclical downturn.

19 July 2019 Consumers are Showing No Signs of Brexit Blues (Publication Centre)

June's retail sales figures provided a timely reminder that consumers aren't being haunted by the warnings of the damage that a no -deal Brexit would entail.

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists React to the January Fed Statement: 'The Door is Still Open to a June Hike' (Media Centre)

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it would keep short-term interest rates near zero until at least the middle of the year. The central bank's policy committee also signaled caution about low inflation and nodded to overseas uncertainty by including new language that it would monitor international developments. Here's how economists reacted

17 Apr. 2015 Core Inflation not yet slowing after energy price collapse (Publication Centre)

The plunge in gas prices since their peak last summer likely will exert modest downward pressure on core inflation by the end of this year, via reduced costs of production and distribution, but it probably is too soon to start looking for these effects now.

10 September 2018 No Need for the MPC to Rock the Boat This Week (Publication Centre)

Lacklustre economic data and persistent no deal Brexit risk mean that the MPC won't rock the boat at this week's meeting.

19 Jan. 2016 Market Chaos in January Does Not Drive Fed Actions All Year (Publication Centre)

To paraphrase recent correspondence: "How can you possibly believe, given the terrible run of economic data and the turmoil in the markets, that the Fed will raise rates in March/June/at all this year?" Well, to state the obvious, if markets are in anything like their current state at the time of the eight Fed meetings this year, they won't hike. That sort of sustained downward pressure and volatility would itself prevent action at the next couple of meetings, as did the turmoil last summer when the Fed met in September. And if markets were to remain in disarray for an extended period we'd expect significant feedback into the real economy, reducing--perhaps even removing--the need for further tightening.

1 April 2019 Recent Retail Sales Data Make Little Sense, Noise is Swamping the Signal (Publication Centre)

The underlying U.S. consumer story, hidden behind a good deal of recent noise, is that the rate of growth of spending is reverting to the trend in place before last year's tax cuts temporarily boosted people's cashflow.

19 November 2018 The Drop in Oil Prices will Hurt, but not too Badly, Retailers will Benefit (Publication Centre)

The plunge in oil prices in recent weeks is not a threat to the overall U.S. economic growth story in the near term--we have always expected growth to slow, but remain decent, once the boost from the tax cuts fades--but it will make a difference, at the margin.

INDEPENDENT - The chart that shows the UK economic recovery is "on its knees" (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. PMI data, April

19 November 2018 Keep the Faith in Stronger Sterling by the End of March (Publication Centre)

Sterling took another pounding last week. Resignations from the Cabinet, protests by the DUP, and the public submission of letters by 21 MPs calling for a confidence vote in Mrs. May's leadership, imply that parliament won't ratify the current versions of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration on the future relationship with the E.U. next month.

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists React to First-Quarter GDP: 'Pretty Lackluster' (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Q1 GDP

19 Nov. 2015 Fed Set for December Hike, but Expect Two Dissents (Publication Centre)

At the October FOMC meeting, policymakers softened their view on the threat posed by the summer's market turmoil and the slowdown in China, dropping September's stark warning that "Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term." Instead, the October statement merely said that the committee is "monitoring global economic and financial developments."

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists react to the May jobs report: "Unambiguously Positive" (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest Jobs report

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists react to the May jobs report: "Unambiguously Positive" (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest Jobs report

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Snow Weighs on Home-Builder Confidence, But It's No Polar Vortex (Media Centre)

"We know from last year's experience during the polar vortex, when the headline index fell 10 points, that the NAHB survey is extremely susceptible to severe weather, so we can't right now view it as a reliable indicator of the underlying trend in housing market activity," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note to clients.

10 May 2019 The BCB, with no Near Term Room for Manoeuvre, Sees Slow GDP (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economy remains mired in a renewed slowdown, and low--albeit temporarily rising-- inflation, which is allowing the BCB to keep interest rates on hold, at historic lows.

19 June 2017 Colombia's Economy Started Q2 Poorly, Expect a Sluggish Recovery (Publication Centre)

Evidence of slowing economic activity in Colombia continues to mount. Retail sales fell 2.0% year- over-rate in April, down from a revised plus 3.0% in March; and the underlying trend is falling. This year's consumption tax increase, low confidence, tight credit conditions, and rising unemployment continue to put private consumption under pressure.

1 April 2019 The BCCh Finally Admits that the Economy is not Overshooting (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank left its policy rate on hold last Friday at 3.0%, in line with market expectations, amid easing inflationary pressures and a struggling economy.

WALL STREET JOURNAL - ISM Services Report Alleviates Market's Economic Anxiety (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing data release

10 November. 2016 How Far Will Trump Loosen Fiscal Policy? And How Will the Fed React? (Publication Centre)

Note: This updates our initial post-election thoughts, adding more detail to the fiscal policy discussion. Apologies for the density of the text, but there's a lot to say. Our core conclusions have not changed since the election result emerged. The biggest single economic policy change, by far, will be on the fiscal front.

10 November. 2016 A Trump Victory Means Revisions to EU Leaders' Playbooks (Publication Centre)

EZ equity futures predictably fell out of bed as the news of the Trump victory gradually became clear overnight yesterday. The reaction was less violent than after the U.K. Brexit referendum, though, and Mr. Trump's balanced victory speech appears to have calmed nerves for now.

10 May. 2016 Jump in German Factor Orders do Not Signal the Start of an Upturn (Publication Centre)

New business in German manufacturing ended the first quarter on a strong note. Factory orders rose 1.9% month-to-month in March, above the consensus 0.6%, and net revisions to the February data were +0.4 percentage points. The rise in new orders was exclusively due to a 4.3% increase in export orders, which offset a 1.2% fall in domestic orders. These are strong numbers, but the details suggest that mean reversion will push the headline down next month.

12 Dec. 2014 The Noose is Tightening On the Eurozone As Deflation Looms (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone is under pressure from all angles, and data from France and Germany yesterday confirmed that the risk of outright deflation has risen significantly. In Germany, inflation fell to 0.6% yearover- year in November, and in France the CPI rose a paltry 0.3%.

12 August. 2015 China's Devaluation Won't Deter the Fed, Or Wreck the Economy (Publication Centre)

China's 1.8% downshift in the RMB/dollar reference rate will make only a microscopic difference to the pace of U.S. economic growth and inflation. It will not deter the Fed from raising rates if the domestic labor market continues to tighten, as all the data suggest. The drop in the RMB merely restores the nominal exchange rate to its fall 2012 level, since which time the real exchange rate has risen by some 20%, according to the BIS.

17 July 2017 September Rate Hike Odds Have Fallen, but it's not Over Yet (Publication Centre)

After four straight sub-consensus core CPI readings, we think the odds now favor reversion to the prior trend, 0.2%, over the next few months.

17 July 2018 Powell Set to Re-affirm the "Gradual" Approach to Rates, for Now (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony today will likely re-affirm that policymakers still think "gradual" rate hikes are appropriate and that the risks to the economy remain "roughly balanced".

19 March 2019 Chile's Economy to Gather Speed Over the Second Half of the Year (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q4 GDP report, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy accelerated at the end of last year, supported by rising capex and solid consumption.

1 February 2017 The EZ Economy Finished 2016 Strongly, and Q1 Outlook is Solid (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a good day for headline EZ economic data. GDP growth accelerated, inflation rose and unemployment fell further. Advance Q4 data showed that real GDP in the Eurozone rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, marginally faster than the upwardly revised 0.4% in Q3. Full-year growth in 2016 slowed slightly to 1.7% from 2.0% in 2015.

10 May 2019 Is the Risk of a No-Deal Brexit Rising Again? (Publication Centre)

Unsurprisingly, cross-party Brexit talks are not going well.

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists react to the May jobs report: "Unambiguously Positive" (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest Jobs report

10 May 2019 See No Evil, Hear No Evil in Today's U.S. China Trade Talks (Publication Centre)

As we head to press, investors are holding their breath over whether today's trade talks between the U.S. and China will be enough for Mr. Trump to step back from his pledge to increase tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods to 25%.

10 March 2017 A Guide to ECB Speak: Getting Better, but We're not Done Yet (Publication Centre)

The ECB made no major policy changes yesterday. The central bank kept its refinancing and deposit rates unchanged at 0.00% and -0.4% respectively, and the scheduled reduction in the pace of QE to €60B per month was confirmed. The core part of the central bank's language retained its dovish bias.

19 Jan. 2015 Peru's Central Bank Committed to Boost Economic Growth (Publication Centre)

In a surprise move, Peru's central bank, BCRP, succumbed to the current weakness of the economy and cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.25% last Thursday, for the first time since August last year. The board also lowered the interest rates on lending and deposit operations between the central bank and financial institutions.

11 Sept. 2015 Brazil's Cut to Junk Deepens Its Economic And Financial Woes (Publication Centre)

This year, Brazil has been the perfect example of all the problems faced by EM countries over the last few decades. A long and deep recession, high inflation, fiscal crisis, political chaos, a commodity price crunch, sharp currency depreciation and lack of confidence have all worked together to hammer the economy and investor confidence. These factors all contributed to S&P downgrading Brazil to junk status on Wednesday.

11 Dec. 2015 Don't be Swayed by Soft Nominal Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

Retail sales ex-autos have undershot consensus forecasts in eight of the 11 reports released so far this year, prompting interest rate doves to argue that consumers have not spent their windfall from falling gas prices. But this ignores the impact of falling prices--for gasoline, electronics, furniture, and clothing--on the sales numbers, which are presented in nominal terms.

11 Dec. 2015 The MPC is Independent, But it Cannot Ignore Other Central Banks (Publication Centre)

The MPC's asserted its independence in the minutes of December's meeting, firmly stating that there is "no mechanical link between UK policy and those of other central banks". Markets have interpreted this as supporting their view that the MPC won't be rushed into raising interest rates by the Fed's actions. Investors now expect a nine-month gap between the Fed hike we anticipate next week, and the first move in the U.K.

11 Dec. 2014 French Economy Stumbles, as Market Looks Towards 2nd TLTRO (Publication Centre)

An upbeat third quarter for GDP growth in France and slightly better sentiment data have offered at least some hope that the economy could stage a comeback into year-end. But yesterday's disappointing industrial production data poured cold water on that idea.

2 December. 2016 Sterling's Depreciation Has Not Been a Boon for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

The deterioration of the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey in November should temper optimism about the potential benefits of sterling's depreciation. The PMI fell to 53.4 in November, from 54.2 in October.

19 December 2018 November Retail Sales Set to Outperform the Gloomy Consensus (Publication Centre)

The consensus for retail sales volumes to rise by a mere 0.3% month-to-month in November, after falling by 0.4% in September and 0.5% in Oc tober, looks too downbeat.

1 October 2018 Data Confirm Softer Q3 in Disaster- Hit Japan, but it's not all Bad News (Publication Centre)

A firmer picture is emerging of how Japan's economy fared in Q3, in light of the latest slew of data for August.

12 December. 2016 Participation Won't Rise Enough to Prevent Higher Inflation (Publication Centre)

It appears to be something of an article of faith among economic advisors to President-elect Trump that substantial fiscal stimulus will generate faster growth without boosting inflation, because both labor participation and productivity growth will rise.

THE GUARDIAN - UK manufacturing growth slows in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

11 Feb. 2015 Soaring Job Openings Suggest Super-Easy Money is Now Risky (Publication Centre)

Back in April 2012, Janet Yellen--then Fed Vice-Chair--spoke in detail about the labor market and monetary policy. The key point of her labor market analysis was that it was impossible to know for sure how much of the increase in unemployment--at the time, the headline rate was 8.2%--was structural, and how much was cyclical.

THE GUARDIAN - Shock UK deficit figures dent George Osborne's economic plan (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K Deficit

2 July 2019 More Misery in EZ Manufacturing, but M1 Looks Solid Enough (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in the Eurozone were soft.

2 July 2019 The Sino-U.S. Trade Truce is Good News for LatAm, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

The truce in trade relations between the U.S. and China, agreed at the G20, is good news for LatAm, at least for now.

FINANCIAL TIMES - Lower oil prices cut two ways for US economy (Media Centre)

Lower oil prices cut two ways for US economy

1 Oct. 2015 Ignore the ADP Headline, But Dig Deeper to Find Real Information (Publication Centre)

You might want a strong coffee before you read today's Monitor, because we're going deep inside the relationship between the ADP employment report and the official numbers. We have long argued that ADP's headline reading is not a useful indicator of payrolls, because the numbers are heavily influenced by the official payroll data for the previous month, which are inputs to the ADP model. To be clear, ADP's employment number is not generated solely from hard data from companies which use the company for payroll processing; that information is just one input to their model.

2 January 2018 The Economy Won't Spring Back to Life in 2018 (Publication Centre)

The economy slowed less than we expected in 2017.

16 June 2017 Why is France not Pulling its Weight in EZ Inflation Data? (Publication Centre)

It's hard for a central bank presiding over an ageing economy to achieve a core inflation target of close to 2%. In yesterday's Monitor, we showed that German core inflation has averaged a modest 1.3% in this business cycle, despite solid GDP growth. The picture isn't much better for the ECB if we look at France.

FORBES - All Hail The Eurozone's Disaster-Prone Economy (Really) (Media Centre)

Provocative notes from Ian Shepherdson, the Chief Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics

11 August. 2016 Household Spending Will Not Defy Gravity For Long Surveys (Publication Centre)

Recent retail surveys have indicated that consumers are not suffering yet from Brexit blues. The BRC reported that year-over-year growth in total sales values picked up to 1.9% in July, from 0.2% in June. After adjusting for falling prices, this measure suggests that year-over-year growth in official retail sales volumes held steady at about 4% last month.

16 Oct. 2015 Bund Yields are Too Low, but no Serious Increase Until Next Year (Publication Centre)

Bond markets in the euro area have been a calm sea recently relative to the turmoil in equities, credit and commodities. Following the initial surge in yields at the end of second quarter, 10-year benchmark rates have meandered in a tight range, recently settling towards the lower end, at 0.5%. Our outlook for the economy and inflation tells us this is to o low, even allowing for the impact of QE.

16 November. 2016 The Sell-off in LAtAm is Starting to Ease, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Selling pressure in LatAm markets after Donald Trump's election victory eased when the dollar rally paused earlier this week. Yesterday, the yield on 10- year Mexican bonds slipped from its cycle high, and rates in other major LatAm economies also dipped slightly.

16 November. 2016 Look Behind Falling Utility Output to See the Manufacturing Gain (Publication Centre)

Falling demand for utility energy, thanks to yet another very warm month, relative to normal, will depress the headline industrial production number for October, due today. We look for a 21⁄2% drop in utility energy production, enough to subtract a quarter point from total industrial output.

16 Oct. 2015 Goods Prices Aren't Falling Fast Enough to Offset Services Gains (Publication Centre)

The strong dollar is pushing down goods prices, but not very quickly. As a result, the sustained upward pressure on rents is gradually nudging core CPI inflation higher. It now stands at 1.9%, up from a low of 1.6% in January, and even relatively modest gains over the third quarter will push the rate above 2% by year-end. We can't rule out core CPI inflation ending the year at a startling 2.3%.

10 June. April's 'Surge' in Exports Does Not Point to a Brexit Silver Lining (Publication Centre)

News yesterday that exports surged to a record high in April was leapt on as "evidence" that sterling's Brexit-related weakness already is having positive side-effects and that therefore the economy would be relatively unscathed by a Brexit. However appealing this explanation may sound, it is nonsense.

19 October 2017 Leading Indicators Will be Hit by Storms, but not on the Katrina Scale (Publication Centre)

We don't use the index of leading economic indicators as a forecasting tool. If it leads the pace of growth at all, it's not by much, and in recent years it has proved deeply unreliable.

17 June. 2015 FOMC to Acknowledge Rebound, but Rate Dots Likely Unchanged (Publication Centre)

The tone of today's FOMC statement likely will be different to the gloomy April missive, which began with a list of bad news: "...economic growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory factors. The pace of job gains moderated... underutilization of labor resources was little changed. Growth in household spending declined... Business fixed investment softened, the recovery in the housing sector remained slow, and exports declined."

19 September 2017 Four Reasons Why the MPC Likely Will Procrastinate in November (Publication Centre)

For the record, we think the Fed should raise rates in December, given the long lags in monetary policy and the clear strength in the economy, especially the labor market, evident in the pre-hurricane data.

Independent - UK economy growth could slip due to North Sea pipeline shutdown, warn experts (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. economy growth

16 Nov. 2015 Slightly Disappointing Q3 GDP Data Likely Enough for ECB Doves (Publication Centre)

Eurozone GDP data on Friday were better than we expected, but were still soft compared to upbeat market expectations. Real GDP rose 0.3% quarter-onquarter in the third quarter, down slightly from 0.4% in Q2, and lower than the consensus forecast for another 0.4% gain. These data are not a blank check for ECB doves, but they probably are enough to push through further easing in December. This looks odd given growth in the last four quarters of an annualised 1.6%--the strongest since 2011--and probably slightly above the long-run growth rate.

16 Nov. 2015 Is Banxico Still Willing to Hike Just After the Fed in December? (Publication Centre)

Mexico's domestic conditions don't warrant an imminent rate hike in the near term. Headline inflation continues to fall, reaching an all-time low of 2.5% in October. It should remain below 3% in the coming months. And core prices remain wellbehaved, increasing at a modest pace, signalling very little pass-through of the MXN's depreciation. Economic activity gained some momentum in Q3-- this will be confirmed on Friday's GDP report--but demand pressures on inflation are absent and the output gap is still ample. Under these conditions, policymakers should not be in a rush to hike, but they have signalled once again that they will act immediately after the Fed.

THE TELEGRAPH - Eurozone economy 'sizzles' as ECB readies monetary bazooka (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the Eurozone recovery

19 September 2018 The Latest Tariffs will Hit Inflation Harder than Economic Growth (Publication Centre)

The imposition of tariffs on a further $200B-worth of Chinese imports is not a game-changer on the U.S.

16 Nov. 2015 Wage Gains to Drive Consumption as the Gas Price Boost Fades (Publication Centre)

The acceleration in real consumption over the past year reflects the upturn in real after-tax income growth. This, in turn, is mostly a story of falling gasoline prices, which have depressed the PCE deflator. Gross nominal incomes before tax rose 4.2% year-over-year in the three months to September, exactly matching the pace in the three months to September 2014. But real income growth, after tax, accelerated to 3.3% from 2.5% over the same period, as our first chart shows.

09 Mar. 2016 Key Andean Economies Struggling Against External Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in Colombia and--especially-- Chile, braked in the fourth quarter and at the start of this year as the strong USD drove up imported good prices and tepid global demand weighed on exports. Colombia's January exports plunged 36.6% year-over-year, even worse than the 35% average drop in Q4.

10 June. 2016 Nominal Corporate Sales Set to Rebound, Supporting Stock Prices (Publication Centre)

For some time now we have argued that the forces which have depressed business capex--the collapse in oil prices, the strong dollar, and slower growth in China--are now fading, and will soon become neutral at worst. As these forces dissipate, the year-over-year rate of growth of capex will revert to the prior trend, about 4-to-6%. We have made this point in the context of our forecast of faster GDP growth, but it also matters if you're thinking about the likely performance of the stock market.

1 July. 2016 Brexit Vote Prompts a Rate Hike in Mexico - the MXN Rallies, for Now (Publication Centre)

Mexico's central bank, Banxico, capitulated to the sharp MXN depreciation yesterday and increased interest rates by 50bp, for the second time this year, in a bid to support the currency. Raising rates to 4.25% was a brave step, as the economic recovery remains sluggish, thanks mostly to external headwinds. The hike demonstrates that policymakers are extremely worried about the decline in the MXN and its lagged effect on inflation.

20 December 2016 The IFO Points to a Strong Finish for the German Economy to 2016 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey capped a fine Q4 for German business survey data. The headline business climate index climbed to a 34-month high of 111.0 in December, from 110.4 in November. An increase in the "current assessment" index was the main driver of the gain, while the expectations index rose only trivially.

14 November 2017 Are Investors Complacent to Expect a Smooth Brexit Transition in 2019? (Publication Centre)

Sterling weakened yesterday, to $1.31 from $1.32, following news that 40 Conservative MPs have agreed to sign a letter of no-confidence in the Prime Minister.

13 November 2017 German GDP Growth Likely Slowed in Q3, but Trend is Robust (Publication Centre)

Macroeconomic data in the euro area were mixed in our absence.

Business Insiders - The UK, German and Italian economies are all tanking at the same time (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone Economies

14 November 2017 Mexico's Manufacturing Remains Resilient, but NAFTA Risk is High (Publication Centre)

LatAm's economies are starting to expand at a relatively healthy pace, inflation is more or less under control and near-term growth prospects are positive.

Bloomberg - Pantheon Economist Sees Inflation Rising in Euro Zone (Media Centre)

Claus Vistesen, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief euro zone economist, discusses the outlook for the euro-zone economy in 2018 with Bloomberg's Scarlet Fu and Joe Weisenthal on "What'd You Miss?"

10 February 2017 Still no Sign of a Sustained Trade Boost From Sterling's Depreciation (Publication Centre)

Today's trade figures likely will continue to show that the benefits from sterling's depreciation are being outweighed by the costs. Exports still are barely growing, but consumers are about to endure a substantial import price shock. The monthly trade deficit has been extremely volatile over the last year, generating a series of excessively upbeat or gloomy headlines. The truth is that the deficit has been on a slightly deteriorating trend, as our first chart shows. We think the trade deficit likely narrowed to £3.8B in December, from £4.2B in November, bringing it closer to its rolling 12-month average of £3.0B.

1 November 2017 Will the Fed Upgrade its View on Growth Today? (Publication Centre)

The Fed will do nothing today, but the FOMC's statement will re-affirm the intention to continue its "gradual" tightening.

Bloomberg - Pantheon Economist Says Markets Are 'Pivoting Towards a Nasty Fiscal Story' (Media Centre)

Claus Vistesen, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief euro zone economist, discusses how volatility has impacted the bond market.

10 December 2018 Not a Great Moment for a Rise in China's FX Reserves (Publication Centre)

China's FX reserves rose to $3,062B in November, from $3,053B on October. On the face of it, the increase is surprising.

BBC - UK economic growth slows to 0.4% in first quarter (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

13 February 2017 BCCh Says it's not Worried About Inflation, Will it Ease Tomorrow? (Publication Centre)

Chile's Central Bank's monetary policy meeting, scheduled for tomorrow, likely will be one of the most difficult in recent months. Economic activity remains soft, and GDP likely contracted in Q4, due to weakness in mining output and investment.

BBC - UK economic growth 'stalls' as service sector slides (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. PMI data in November

Bloomberg - How Fed Rate Hike Messaging Impacts the Economy (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on Bloomberg Surveillance

CITY AM - Eurozone economy comes off the boil in January despite rebound in end-of-year retail sales (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone economist Claus Vistesen comments on the Eurozone PMIs

14 November 2017 NFIB Survey set to Rebound After the Hurricane Hit, Capex Strong? (Publication Centre)

The minutes of the September 19/20 FOMC meeting record that "...it was noted that the National Federation of Independent Business reported that greater optimism among small businesses had contributed to a sharp increase in the proportion of small firms planning increases in their capital expenditures."

21 November 2017 Chile's Economy Rebounded in Q3, but Politics Will Dominate the News (Publication Centre)

Incoming data confirm our view that the Chilean economy to rebound steadily in the second half of the year, with real GDP increasing 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, after a relatively modest 0.9% increase in Q2 and a meagre 0.1% in Q1.

21 November 2017 Cutting Stamp Duty for FTBs Will Boost Prices, not Home Ownership (Publication Centre)

Reforms to Stamp Duty Land Tax paid by first-time buyers likely will take centre stage in the Budget. At the Conservatives' party conference, Theresa May pledged another £10B to expand the Help to Buy Scheme, which helps first-time buyers obtain a mortgage which just a 5% deposit.

14 November 2018 Expect a Rebound in October's Core CPI, but the Trends are Benign (Publication Centre)

The near-term U.S. inflation outlook is benign, but it is not without risk.

14 November. 2016 Brazil's Private Spending was Weak in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Volatility and risk will remain high in L atAm for the foreseeable future. President-elect Donald Trump's uncertain foreign policies could have a considerable impact on LatAm economies in the months and years ahead.

14 February 2018 Elections and Economic Turnaround Key Factors to Watch in Colombia (Publication Centre)

Legislative and presidential elections in Colombia will be held on March 11 and May 27, respectively, with a run-off presidential election on June 17 if no candidate secures more than half the votes.

14 November. 2016 How Will the Fed React to Next Year's Inflationary Shock? (Publication Centre)

Markets are beginning to grasp that President-elect Trump's economic plans, if implemented in full--or anything like it--will constitute substantial inflationary shock to the U.S.

12 November 2018 Mexico's Industrial Sector did Well in Q3, but Politics are a Threat for 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy gathered strength in Q3, due mainly to the strength of the services sector, and the rebound in manufacturing, following a long period of sluggishness, helped by the solid U.S. economy and improving domestic confidence.

13 Jan. 2016 Sterling Has Not Priced-in Brexit Risks Yet, Despite Recent Plunge (Publication Centre)

Claims abound that sterling's sharp depreciation since the start of the year--to its lowest level against the dollar since May 2010--partly reflects the growing risk that the U.K. will vote to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum. We see little evidence to support this assertion. Sterling's decline to date can be explained by the weakness of the economic data, meaning that scope remains for Brexit fears to push the currency even lower this year.

13 Jan. 2016 Even Senior Creditors are Not Safe in the Eurozone Banking Industry (Publication Centre)

Investors in Eurozone banks continue to face uncertain times, despite the ECB's best efforts to prop up the economy and financial markets via QE. The latest hit to confidence comes from the bail-in of selected senior debt in Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo. When the troubled lender was restructured in mid-2014, the equity and junior debt were left in a "bad" bank--and were virtually wiped out--while the deposits and senior debt went into the "good" bank Novo Banco. Senior debt holders expecting to recoup their money, however, were startled earlier this month by the decision to "re-assign" five selected bonds with total face value of €2B from Novo Banco to the bad bank, in effect wiping out the investors.

14 November 2017 Poor EZ Production Data Won't Dent Second Q3 GDP Estimate (Publication Centre)

Soft September data in Germany and Italy suggest that today's industrial production report in the Eurozone will be poor. Our first chart shows that data from the major EZ economies point to a 0.8% month-to- month fall in September.

07 Mar. 2016 Brazil's Economy Collapsed in 2015 - No Sign of Quick Recovery (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic news remained grim at the headline level last week, but some of the details were less bad than in recent months. Industrial production fell by 13.8% year-over-year in January, down from the 12.1% drop in December and the worst performance on this basis since mid-2009.

Business Insider U.K. - These 4 charts will define the British economy at the start of 2018 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Economy in 2018

12 November 2018 September's Sombre GDP Report Sets the Tone for the Rest of the Year (Publication Centre)

September's GDP report laid bare the economy's sluggishness.

14 November 2017 Slowing Chinese Money Growth Points to Lower PPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

Chinese monetary conditions have tightened sharply in the past year. Conditions have stabilised in recent months but Fed policy normalisation implies the increase in the money stock should slow again in 2018.

21 February 2019 How High Would Inflation Get After A No-deal Brexit? (Publication Centre)

With a no-deal Brexit still a potential outcome and just over five weeks to go until the U.K. is scheduled to leave, it's about time we put some numbers on how high inflation could get in this worst-case scenario.

21 February 2017 Are EZ Survey Data Overestimating Momentum in the Economy? (Publication Centre)

We think this week's main economic surveys in the Eurozone will take a step back following a steady rise since the end of Q3. Today's composite PMI in the Eurozone likely slipped to 54.0 in February, from 54.4 in January, mainly due to a dip in the manufacturing component. Even if we're right about slightly weaker survey data in February, though, it is unlikely to change the story of a stable and solid cyclical expansion in the EZ.

13 December 2016 CPI Inflation Likely Picked up in November, Bigger Advances Ahead (Publication Centre)

November's consumer price report likely will show that October's dip in CPI inflation was just a blip against a strong upward trend. We think that CPI inflation picked up to 1.1% in November, from 0.9% in October, in line with the consensus.

BLOOMBERG - Chile's Economy Grows More Than Forecast as Demand Picks Up (Media Centre)

Senior International economist Andres Abadia comments on Chile's economic growth

BUSINESS INSIDER - ECONOMIST: 'The wage number is wrong, payrolls are strong.' (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Employment

21 June 2019 Financial Markets in the Eurozone are now in Bizarro-World (Publication Centre)

Swoons in EZ investor sentiment are not always reliable leading indicators for the economic surveys, but it is fair to say that risks for today's advance PMIs are tilted to the downside, following the dreadful Sentix and ZEW headlines earlier this month.

Business Insider - The only analyst who called the June 8 election correctly now says there is 'clear evidence that the Brexit vote has been bad for the economy' (Media Centre)

A look back on Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Toombs' predictions ahead of the U.K. General Election

14 July 2017 Ignore the Headline Trade Numbers, Chinese Growth is Slowing (Publication Centre)

China's headline trade numbers appear to paint a picture of an economy in rude health but scratch the surface and the story is quite different. The trade surplus rose to$42.8B in June from $40.8B in May, hitting consensus.

13 December 2018 The Rise in Jobless Claims is Convincing Evidence of... Not Much (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the upturn in initial jobless claims since late September appears to signal a softening in the economy.

14 January 2019 November's Pick up in GDP Growth is Noise, not Signal (Publication Centre)

A cursory glance at November's GDP report gives the misleading impression that the U.K. economy is ticking over nicely, despite Brexit.

21 December 2016 Home Sales Likely Fell in November, Before the Hit from Higher Rates (Publication Centre)

After two big monthly gains in existing home sales, culminating in October's nine-year high of 5.60M, we expect a dip in sales in today's November report. This wouldn't be such a big deal -- data correct after big movements all the time -- were it not for the downward trend in mortgage applications.

13 June 2018 Want to Know What is Happening in EZ Equities? Ask the Foreigners (Publication Centre)

It is by now a familiar story that the Eurozone has become a supplier of liquidity to the global economy in the wake of the sovereign debt crisis.

BLOOMBERG - Economist Says U.S. Consumer Spending Is About To 'Surge' (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Chief Economist at Pantheon MacroEconomics, on U.S. Consumer spending

13 December 2018 China's November Activity Data are Set to Disappoint (Publication Centre)

China's October activity data showed signs of the infrastructure stimulus machine sputtering into life. Consensus expectations appear to hold out for a continuation into November, but we think the numbers will be disappointing.

BLOOMBERG - Chile's Economy Resumes Growth as Domestic Demand Picks Up (Media Centre)

Senior International Economist Andres Abadia on Chile's economy

CBS NEWS - U.S. economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. economist Ian Shepherdson comments on U.S Q4 GDP

BLOOMBERG - Are Economic Indicators Pointing to a Fed Rate Hike? (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the Fed

BUSINESS INSIDER - Europe's Largest Economy Is Officially In Deflation (Media Centre)

Germany's consumer price index fell 0.3% month-over-month in January. It's the first time the inflation rate went negative since September 2009. "Deflation has arrived," Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen said

BUSINESS INSIDER - Brits are hoarding cash post-Brexit -- and it's a 'worrying signal' for the economy (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Money Supply

21 August 2017 Construction is Propelling the Eurozone Economy in 2017 (Publication Centre)

The construction sector remains a stand-out performer in the Eurozone economy, despite stumbling at the end of Q2.

13 December 2016 Q4 Outlook is Brightening for the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

One of the main conclusions we drew from last week's ECB meeting was that the QE program is here to stay for a while. If the economy improves, the central bank could reduce the pace of purchases further. But we struggle to come up with a forecast for growth and inflation next year that would allow the ECB to signal that QE is coming to an end.

BBC - US economic growth slows to 2.3 (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing U.S. Q1 GDP

BBC - UK economy grows at fastest rate since late 2016 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP in Q3

13 February 2017 Too Soon to Conclude the Economy is Finally Rebalancing (Publication Centre)

Data on industrial production and trade released last week have fanned hopes that the U.K.'s growth model is moving away from its excessive reliance on household spending, and towards production and exports. But a close look at the underlying drivers of the strong headline figures suggests that it is too soon to hope that the economy is undergoing a major rebalancing.

07 Jan. 2016 Solid EZ Economic Data Amid Rising Volatility in Equity Markets (Publication Centre)

Increased volatility has given equity investors a torrid start to the year, but economic reports have been strong, and yesterday's PMIs were no exception. The composite index in the Eurozone rose marginally to 54.3 in December from 54.2 in November, slightly higher than the initial estimate of 54.0. This is consistent with a continuing cyclical recovery, and real GDP growth of 0.4%-to-0.5% in Q4, modestly higher than the 0.3% rise in the third quarter.

10 December 2018 Fires, Noise and Hurricanes Hit November Payrolls, not Tariffs (Publication Centre)

The softening in payroll growth in November appears mostly to be a story about short-term noise, rather than a sign that tariffs are hurting or that the broader economy is slowing.

10 Dec. 2015 Lower Oil Prices are Only Modestly Positive for the U.K. Economy (Publication Centre)

The U.K. is one of the smallest winners among advanced economies from the precipitous decline in oil prices. British oil production still fulfils about 55% of the U.K.'s demand, even though it has declined by two-thirds since its 1999 peak. Oil consumption therefore exceeds production by a much smaller margin in the U.K. than in most other European countries. As a result, the boost to the U.K. economy from the $10 decline in oil prices over the last month isn't much to write home about.

14 Jan. 2015 Industrial Production: A Tale of the Two Major LatAm Economies (Publication Centre)

On Monday we highlighted the grim state of the Brazilian industrial sector, where output fell by a huge 5.8% year-over-year in November. By contrast, the outlook for Mexico's industrial sector is much brighter.

BUSINESS INSIDER - The idea that Brexit isn't totally screwing the economy is 'baloney' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the impact of the Referendum

CBS NEWS - GM plant closings, layoffs indicate a cooling U.S. economy (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in October

21 August 2018 Could Stockpiling for a No-Deal Brexit Boost the Economy? (Publication Centre)

We have been asked several times in recent days whether a pick-up in stockbuilding, as part of businesses' contingency planning for a no-deal Brexit, could cause the economy to gather some pace in the run-up to Britain's scheduled departure from the EU in March 2019.

21 March 2017 The Debt Ceiling is Back, but no Crisis Likely Until the Fall (Publication Centre)

The federal debt ceiling was re-imposed last week, with no fanfare, and no reaction in the markets. All eyes were focussed instead on the Fed's rate hike and Chair Yellen's press conference.

14 Oct. 2015 Ignore Falling Energy Prices, and Focus on Core Inflation in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Collapsing energy prices continue to weigh on the headline inflation rate in the Eurozone's largest economy. Final September CPI data in Germany confirmed that inflation fell to 0.0% year-over-year from 0.2%, due to a 9.3% plunge in energy prices -- down from a 7.6% fall in August--mainly a result of a collapse in petrol price inflation. This comfortably offset an increase in food inflation to 1.1% from 0.8%, due to surging vegetable and fruit prices.

11 Mar. 2015 Fed Rate Hike Fears Now the Key Worry For LatAm Central Banks (Publication Centre)

Inflation appears no longer to be an issue for Mexican policymakers. The annual headline rate slowed to 3.0% year-over-year in February from 3.1% in January, in the middle of the central bank's target range, for the first time since May 2006.

13 Nov. 2015 Retail Sales Data are Misleading When Goods Prices Fall (Publication Centre)

Retail sales account for some 30% of GDP--more than all business investment and government spending combined--so the monthly numbers directly capture more of the economy than any other indicator. Translating the monthly sales numbers into real GDP growth is not straightforward, though, because the sales numbers are nominal. Sales have been hugely depressed over the past year by the plunging price of gasoline and, to a lesser extent, declines in prices of imported consumer goods.

CNBC - Eurozone's economy grows 0.3 percent in third quarter, up 1.6 percent on last year (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone GDP data in Q3

CNBC - Fed hike hint surprises economist (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Ian Shepherdson on Brexit risk to a June rate hike

15 December 2016 October's Surprising Labor Data Will Make the MPC Think, not Act (Publication Centre)

The Bank of England won't set markets alight today. We expect another 9-0 vote to leave rates unchanged at 0.25%, and to continue with the £50B of gilt purchases and $10B of corporate bond purchases announced in August. This is not to say, though, that everything is plain sailing for the Monetary Policy Committee.

21 November. 2016 Soft Chilean Data Likely Leading to Rate Cuts Next Year (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank left rates unchanged at 3.5% last Thursday, as expected, and maintained its neutral tone. Inflation pressures are easing, economic activity remains sluggish and global risks have increased.

10 April 2018 Q1 was a write-off for the German economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's trade data added to the evidence that momentum in the German economy slowed sharply at the start of the year.

18 July 2017 China is Slowing, not Rebounding. the Headline Data are Misleading (Publication Centre)

Chinese official headline data paint a picture of a strengthening economy in Q2. Our analysis shows a sharply contrasting picture. China's nominal GDP, real GDP and deflators are often internally inconsistent.

18 January 2019 Good Economic Data for Bolsonaro and Macri at Least for Now (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirmed that economic activity is improving in Brazil.

14 Oct. 2015 Soaring Auto Sales Should Offset Yet Another Gas Price Hit (Publication Centre)

After last week's relatively light flow of data, today brings a wave of information on both the pace of economic growth and inflation. The markets' attention likely will fall first on the September retail sales numbers, which will be subject to at least three separate forces. First, the jump in auto sales reported by the manufacturers a couple of weeks ago ought to keep the headline sales numbers above water.

13 Nov. 2015 Soft Q3 GDP Data to Pave the Way for More Monetary Easing (Publication Centre)

Industrial production data yesterday confirmed downside risks to today's GDP data in the Eurozone. Output fell 0.3% month-to-month in September, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.7% from a revised 2.2% in August. Weakness in Germany was the main culprit, amid stronger data in the other major economies. A GDP estimate based on available data for industrial production and retail sales point to a quarterly growth rate of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, but we think growth was rather lower, just 0.2%, due to a drag from net trade.

21 November 2017 Q4 Growth Shaping up Well, but Holiday Spending Strength is Key (Publication Centre)

It's much too soon to have a very firm view on fourth quarter GDP growth, not least because almost half the quarter hasn't happened yet.

14 December 2017 The Fed Expects Endless Growth and no Inflation, Maybe They're Right (Publication Centre)

The Fed surprised no-one by raising rates 25bp yesterday and leaving in place the median forecast for three hikes next year and two next year.

15 December 2017 Strong November Sales Mean Q3 Consumption Heading for 3% (Publication Centre)

The 0.8% jump in nominal November retail sales is consistent with a 0.4% rise in real total consumption, which in turn suggests that the fourth quarter as a whole is likely to see a near-3% annualized gain.

14 December 2017 Black Friday Likely Gave a Fleeting Boost to Retail Sales in November (Publication Centre)

The consensus for a mere 0.3% month-to-month rise in retail sales volumes in November looks too timid; we anticipate a 0.7% gain.

14 Dec. 2015 November Data Will Mark the First Step in Inflation's Long March Up (Publication Centre)

November's consumer prices figures, released tomorrow, look set to show that the U.K.'s spell of negative inflation has ended. CPI inflation is set to pick-up decisively over the coming months, even if oil prices continue to drift down. In fact, fuel prices likely will contribute to the pick-up in inflation from October's -0.1% rate. November's 1.5% fall in prices at the pump was smaller than the 2.3% drop in the same month last year, so the year-over-year rate will rise. Fuel's contribution to CPI inflation therefore will pick up, albeit very marginally, to -0.47pp from -0.50pp in October.

Business Insider - The Tories might not get the crushing victory they expect in this election (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing the General Election in June

21 September. 2016 No Hike Today, but the Door Will be Left Wide Open (Publication Centre)

We would be very surprised if the Fed were to raise rates today. The Yellen Fed is not in the business of shocking markets, and with the fed funds future putting the odds of a hike at just 22%, action today would assuredly come as a shock, with adverse consequences for all dollar assets.

13 June 2018 No Fourth Dot, and no Substantive Change in the Statement is Likely (Publication Centre)

We previewed the FOMC meeting in detail in the Monitor on Monday--see here--but, to reiterate, we expect rates to rise by 25bp but that the Fed will not add a fourth dot to the projections for this year.

15 Jan. 2015 Inflation Data Confirm Investment Malaise in the French Economy (Publication Centre)

France just about avoided slipping into deflation in December, with the CPI rising 0.1% year-over-year, down from 0.3% in November. The 4.4% drop in the energy component should have pushed inflation below zero, but a seasonal increase in tourism services was enough to offset the drag from oil prices.

15 Jan. 2015 - Falling December Retail Sales no Threat to the Strong Growth Story (Publication Centre)

We want to be very clear about the terrible-looking December retail sales numbers: The core numbers were much less bad than the headline, and there is no reason to think the dip in the core is anything other than noise.

15 February 2017 Yellen Says no "Active" Balance Sheet Management from the Fed (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen delivered no great surprises in her semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony, though she certainly was clear on her attitude to the balance sheet. The Fed does not want to "...use the balance sheet as an active tool of monetary policy."

15 February 2017 The EZ Economy is Resilient, but Fell Short of Expectations in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy was resilient at the end of last year, but yesterday's reports indicated that growth was less buoyant than markets expected. Real GDP in the euro area rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, the same pace as in Q3, but slightly less than the initial estimate 0.5%.

1 March 2019 China's Latest PMIs Give no Reason for Hope Trade Partners Beware (Publication Centre)

Chinese data still are in the midst of Lunar New Year-related noise, so take February's PMIs with a pinch of salt, even though they ostensibly are adjusted for seasonal effects.

21 September 2017 The FOMC is not Deterred by the Hurricanes, Expect a December Hike (Publication Centre)

The FOMC's view of the economic outlook and the likely required policy response, set out in yesterday's statement and Chair Yellen's press conference, could not be clearer.

18 July 2017 Colombia's Economic Prospects Remain Poor, but they will Improve (Publication Centre)

May's activity data underline the weakness of Colombia's economic growth. Domestic demand still is under pressure due to the lagged effect of the deterioration in the terms of trade and other temporary shocks in 2016, and the VAT increase in January this year.

NEWS.MARKETS - Brexit? Bremain? How soon will markets know? (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Referendum

Business Insider - There's a coming storm set to 'batter' the UK economy -- and it has nothing to do with Brexit (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs the recent increase in Oil

18 Feb. 2015 Cold Weather Set to Flatter January Production - No Oil Hit Yet (Publication Centre)

Today brings a raft of January data on both economic activity and prices, but we expect the headline numbers in each report to be distorted by the impact of severe weather or the plunge in oil prices.

BUSINESS INSIDER - Top economist throws shade at the 'research institute' that releases a widely followed jobs number (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdsonon why the ADP report is simply not a reliable indicator

1 November. 2016 The Credit-Driven Consumer Recovery is Reaching its Limits (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, September's money supply data suggest that the economy is ebullient, quickly recovering from the shock referendum result. Year-over-year growth in notes and coins in circulation has accelerated to its highest rate since June 2002.

NEW YORK TIMES - U.S. Economy Added 271,000 Jobs in October - Unemployment Rate at 5% (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on today's Payroll report

07 May. 2015 Inflation Expectations, not Greece, are Pushing EZ Yields Higher (Publication Centre)

Even though Greece managed to avert default yesterday by paying €200M in interest to the IMF, our assumption is that the country remains on the brink of running out of money. Our view is supported by the government's decision to expropriate local authority funds, and reports that the government's domestic liabilities, excluding wages and pensions, are not being met.

20 November 2017 Low Core Inflation Continues to Provide Cover for Mr. Draghi (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi's speech to the European Banking Congress on Friday--see here--was a timely reminder to markets that the ECB is in no hurry to make any changes to its policy setting.

20 Nov. 2015 Will the OBR's New Forecasts Make the Chancellor Cut Deeper? (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor must feel a sense of foreboding before his pre-Autumn Statement meetings with the Office for Budget Responsibility. Even minor revisions to the independent body's economic forecasts could shred into tatters his plans for a budget surplus by the end of the parliament, given the lack of wiggle room in the July Budget borrowing projections. The OBR won't present the Chancellor with disastrous news ahead of next Wednesday's Autumn Statement, but the already slim margin for error he has in meeting his surplus goal likely will be reduced.

21 Jan. 2015 - Spending Not Yet Surging in the Wake of Cheaper Gas, But it Will (Publication Centre)

So far, the surge in retail spending promised by the plunge in gasoline prices has not materialized. The latest Redbook chain store sales numbers dipped below the gently rising trend last week, perhaps because of severe weather, but the point is that the holiday season burst of spending has not been maintained.

20 November 2018 Chile's Economy Shifted into Lower Gear in Q3, is the Outlook Brighter (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q3 GDP report, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy lost momentum in the last quarter.

20 November 2018 The PM is Likely to Hang on, Even if a Confidence Vote is Triggered (Publication Centre)

As we write, 25 Conservative MPs have confirmed publicly that they have submitted no-confidence letters to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee. That's 23 short of the 48 required to trigger a leadership contest, though some MPs might have submitted letters without making it public.

BBC - Eurozone economy to grow at faster rate, says central bank (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the ECB

BBC - Italy's economy stalls as eurozone slows down (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing Italian GDP

14 February 2017 Yellen to Keep March Open, and Signal Fiscal Easing not Needed (Publication Centre)

We're not expecting drama from Chair Yellen's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony in the Senate today. Dr. Yellen will want to keep alive the idea of a rate hike next month, but she will not signal that action is likely, given the continuing lack of clarity on the path of fiscal policy.

1 November 2018 A EZ Inflation Report Straight From the ECB's Hymn Sheet (Publication Centre)

The ECB will be satisfied, and a bit relieved, with yesterday's economic data in the Eurozone.

NEW YORK TIMES - U.S. Economy Added 257,000 Jobs in January - Unemployment Rate at 5.7% (Media Centre)

The economic momentum evident late last year carried into 2015, the Labor Department said Friday, with American employers adding 257,000 jobs in January as wage growth rebounded and more people joined the workforce

NEW YORK TIMES - U.S. Economy Grew Faster in First Quarter Than Previously Thought (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. economy growth

13 Nov. 2015 Will the Drag on the Recovery From Construction Fade? (Publication Centre)

The underlying health of the construction sector isn't as poor as today's official output figures likely will imply. Nonetheless, growth in construction output, which accounts for 6% of GDP, probably won't return to the stellar rates seen in 2013 and 2014, and the sector can't be relied upon to provide much support to overall growth.

20 May. 2016 Chile's GDP Growth is Not Accelerating, Despite Strong Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Chilean economy improved in the first quarter, growing 2.0% year-over-year, up from 1.3% in the fourth quarter. Net trade led the improvement, with exports rising 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, thanks to the modest rise in metal prices and an increase in exports of services, especially tourism.

14 December. 2016 No Change in Median Dots, Yellen Will Stonewall on Fiscal Easing (Publication Centre)

The Fed will raise rates by 25bp today, but we expect no change in the median expectation-the dotplot-for two rate hikes both next year and in 2018. We fully appreciate that fiscal easing on the scale proposed by President-elect Trump, or indeed anything like it, very likely would propel inflation to a pace requiring much bigger increases in rates.

18 February 2019 A Solid End to 2018 for Colombia's Economy, no Threats, for Now (Publication Centre)

Colombia's December activity reports confirmed that quite strong retail sales last year were less accompanied by local production, which became only a minor driver of the economic recovery, as shown in our first chart.

11 May 2018 Markets Now Underestimate the MPC's Tightening Bias (Publication Centre)

The MPC emphasised yesterday that its faith that interest rates need to rise further has not been shaken by recent downside data surprises.

20 March 2019 The MPC Can't Ignore Rapidly- Rising Unit Wage Costs for Long (Publication Centre)

While financial markets remain obsessed with the Brexit saga, January's labour market data provided more evidence yesterday that the economy is coping well with the heightened uncertainty.

20 March 2018 Technocrats with International Credentials get China's Top Jobs (Publication Centre)

China announced the appointment of key political and financial jobs yesterday.

12 Nov. 2015 German Inflation Will Rise Faster than the ECB and Market Expect (Publication Centre)

CPI data today in France and Germany will confirm that current inflation rates remain very low in the euro area. Inflation in Germany likely rose to 0.3% year-over-year from 0.0% in September, in line with the consensus and initial estimate. State data indicate that the rise was driven by surging fresh food prices and slightly higher services inflation, principally due to a jump in the volatile recreation and culture sector. Looking ahead, food prices will drop back, but energy inflation will rise rapidly as last year's plunge drops out of the year-over-year comparison, while upward core pressure is now emerging too.

14 August 2017 A Great First Half of 2017 for the EZ Economy, But it Won't Last (Publication Centre)

While we were away, the advance Q2 GDP report in the Eurozone confirmed our expectations of a strong first half of the year for the economy. Real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, the same pace as in Q1, lifting the year-over-year rate to a cyclical high of 2.1%.

15 Apr. Nothing in MPC Minutes to Support Rate Cut Speculation (Publication Centre)

The minutes of yesterday's MPC meeting indicate that it is not going to be panicked into cutting interest rates in the run-up to the E.U. referendum in June. The Committee voted unanimously again to keep Bank Rate at 0.5%, and dovish comments were conspicuously absent.

21 July 2017 BoJ to Allow Foreign Tightening to Ease Japanese Policy, for now (Publication Centre)

Governor Kuroda commented yesterday that he doesn't think Japan needs more easing at this stage. If he means that the BoJ does not have to change policy to provide more easing then we think he is right, on two and a half counts. First, Japan is likely to receive a boost under its current framework as external rate rises exceed expectations, driving down the yen.

Business Insider - We just got another sign that Brexit is ending the consumer boom (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales

12 Nov. 2015 US Fed is Set to Hike in December, A Worry For LatAm But not a Crisis (Publication Centre)

LatAm economies this year have faced a tough external environment of subdued commodity prices, weaker Chinese growth, the rising USD, and the impending Fed lift-off. At the domestic level, lower public spending, low confidence, and economic policy reform have clashed with above-target inflation, which has prevented central bankers from loosening monetary policy in order to mitigate the external and domestic headwinds. In these challenging circumstances, LatAm growth generally continues to disappoint, though performance is mixed.

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BLOOMBERG - Brexit vote wreaks havoc on U.K. Economy (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K PMIs

Bloomberg - China Has Limited Space for 'Fiscal Bazooka,' Economist Beamish Says (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, Chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the Chinese government's ability to provide economic stimulus. She speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

TRT World - Cancellation of 100-bolivar notes in Venezuela (Media Centre)

Interview with Andres Abadia on cancellation of 100-bolivar notes in Venezuela

Bloomberg - Economist Shepherdson Sees Dollar as Drag on Goods Prices (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the dollar's impact on inflation and markets "overdoing" inflation and recession fears. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

5 July 2018 ADP Likely to Report Another Solid Gain in Payrolls (Publication Centre)

Payroll growth rebounded to 223K in May, after two sub-200K readings, and we're expecting today's June ADP report to signal that labor demand remains strong.

*Oct. 2016 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Inflation and Brexit risks will subdue growth.....Policy action won't prevent a slowdown

CNBC - Here's why this economist says the shutdown will erase all Q1 growth (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics founder and chief U.S. economist, joins "Squawk Box" to discuss how the partial government shutdown is impacting the economy.

CNBC - Tariffs is the big worry, says Pantheon Macroeconomic's Ian Shepherdson (Media Centre)

Julian Emanuel of BTIG and Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss markets ahead of the open.

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing the latest Eurozone Construction data (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing the latest Eurozone Construction data

Bloomberg - RDQ Economics' Dequadros Says Current Fed Is Less Likely to Blink Than Prior Fed (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, and Conrad Dequadros, senior economist at RDQ Economics, discuss rising real yields and Federal Reserve monetary policy.

CNBC - Economy and profits are on a silver platter for investors, says pro (Media Centre)

Ryan Payne, Payne Capital Management president, and Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics founder and chief U.S. economist, discuss what to expect for the markets and economy after a shaky October.

CNBC - Fed raising rates due to 'fear of what might be coming': Economist (Media Centre)

There has been a "meaningful upturn" in core inflation in the U.S., Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macro, said.

CNBC - Fed's Powell 'bullish on growth," says economist (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics founder and chief U.S. economist, provide insight to the broader markets and interest rates ahead of the FOMC meeting.

BUSINESS INSIDER - Homebuilder sentiment dropped in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on NAHB

CNBC - Chinese economy at risk of overstimulation, strategist says (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the Chinese economy.

Bloomberg - Pantheon Chief Economist Worries Wages May Pressure Fed (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the impact of improving wage growth and inflation on the Federal Reserve ahead of today's February jobs report. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

Financial Times - US durable goods orders rise by most in 7 months in March (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Pantheon Macroeconomics App Launch (Media Centre)

Apple and Android app now available

Financial Times - Risks remain high in Argentina (Media Centre)

Chief Latam Economist Andres Abadia on Argentina

Financial Times - Mortgage borrowing rise signals stabilisation in UK house market (Media Centre)

Chief UK Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Mortgage Borrowing

The Guardian - UK house prices make surprise 5.9% rise in February, Halifax says (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Halifax House Prices

Financial Times - What China wants: Brad Setser, and Freya Beamish (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish discussing China.

The Street - US Yield Curve Hugs Inversion: Recession Signal Clouded by Negative Global Rates (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing the latest from the Fed

City A.M. - Retail sales decline for longest stretch in eight years (Media Centre)

Chief UK Economist Samuel Tombs on UK Retail Sales

BBC NEWS - US jobs shock as growth slows (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest employment data.

8 February 2019 Fiscal Deadlines Promise Drama, but Probably not Crises (Publication Centre)

Two fiscal deadlines are on the near-horizon.

Bloomberg - What Economists Are Saying Ahead of the U.S. Jobs Report for May (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson in U.S. Employment for May

The Times - Shock deterioration in building sector knocks sterling (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Construction in June

BUSINESS INSIDER - It was a rough morning for the US economy (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson comments on Retail Sales data for June

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BLOOMBERG - And Now It's Time to Talk About the Fed (Media Centre)

With today's jobs report confirming a strong labor market recovery, it's time to turn our attention back to the Fed

CBS NEWS - Will Syriza win rock the global economy? (Media Centre)

Claus Vistesen on the Greek election results impact on the Eurozone

The Hill - Memo to Powell: Best not to offer hostages to fortune (Media Centre)

Article by Ian Shepherdson in The Hill

Pantheon ranked top forecaster of the U.K. economy in 2018

We are pleased to announce that our Chief U.K. Economist, Samuel Tombs, was ranked the most accurate forecaster of the U.K. economy in 2018 by The Sunday Times.

About Us

Pantheon Macroeconomics' Chief Economist Dr. Ian Shepherdson provides unbiased, independent economic intelligence to financial market professionals.

DUKASCOPY TV - Claus Vistesen discussing Italy's place in the Eurozone (Media Centre)

After disappointing Italian Industrial Output Data, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discusses the current situation in the Eurozone.

CNBC - Why two experts don't expect surprises from the Fed (Media Centre)

Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab Center for Financial Research, and Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, sit down with "Squawk Box" to discuss what they expect of the Fed's announcement on it's monetary policy plan.

CNBC The Fed is addressing the inflation rate (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist, and Vinay Pande, UBS Global Wealth Management head of trading strategies, join "Squawk on the Street" to discuss their forecast for the markets amid strong jobs data.

CNBC - Markets worry Trump is juggling too many geopolitical issues... (Media Centre)

Scott Nations, president and CIO of Nations Shares, and Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, join "Squawk Box" to give their opinion on the market heading into a new week.

28 June 2019 Consumers' Confidence Still Points to Steady Growth in Spending (Publication Centre)

The latest E.C. survey shows the gap between firms' and households' confidence levels has remained substantial.

28 March 2017 Could a Rebounding Eurozone Prevent a U.K. Slowdown? (Publication Centre)

Business surveys coming out of the Eurozone have been remarkably strong recently. The composite PMI for the Eurozone jumped to 56.7 in March--its highest level since April 2011--from 56.1 in February. Germany's IFO business climate index leaped to a 67-month high in March.

28 June 2018 Second Quarter Growth is on Track to be a Blockbuster (Publication Centre)

The decline in headline durable goods orders in May, reported yesterday, doesn't matter.

28 March 2018 Is Wage Growth About to Reach a Turning Point? (Publication Centre)

Wage growth will be crucial in determining how quickly the MPC raises interest rates this year. So far, it hasn't recovered meaningfully.

28 March 2018 February Foreign Trade Data Could Move the Needle on Q1 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Markets often greet the monthly international trade numbers with a shrug.

27 February 2018 Is Shorting Italian Government Bonds the New Widowmaker? (Publication Centre)

Eurozone bond traders of a bearish persuasion are finding it difficult to make their mark ahead of Italy's parliamentary elections next weekend.

25 Feb. 2016 Huge Upside Risk for Durable Orders as Aircraft Sales Rebound (Publication Centre)

Today's headline durable goods orders number for January is likely to blast through the consensus forecast, +2.7%. We expect a 6.5% jump, comfortably reversing December's 5.0% drop.

25 February 2019 Is Banxico Ready to Consider Rate Cuts in the Near Term? (Publication Centre)

The minutes of the Banxico's monetary policy meeting on February 7, when the board unanimously voted to keep the reference rate on hold at 8.25%, were consistent with the post-meeting statement.

25 January 2019 Reality will Hit the Bank of Korea Hard Expect a Year-Long Pause (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday left its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.75%, at its first meeting of the year.

24 September 2018 BoJ Still Likely to Shift the Focus to Capacity-Responsive Prices (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation jumped to 1.3% in August, from 0.9% in July.

26 April 2018 All Set for a Dovish ECB Meeting Today? (Publication Centre)

The ECB will leave its main refinancing and deposit rates at 0.00% and -0.4% unchanged today, and it will also maintain the pace of QE at €30B per month.

24 October 2018 September New Home Sales Likely Hit by Hurricane Michael (Publication Centre)

The path of new home sales over the past couple of years has followed the mortgage applications numbers quite closely.

26 February 2019 Your Guide to the New HICP Inflation Data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

For a central bank already fighting for every decimal in its attempt to convince markets that underlying inflation is slowly edging higher, the recent shift in HICP methodology drives home an increasingly problematic issue.

25 September 2018 Mexico's Inflation Edged Lower in mid-September Pressures are Tame (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Mexico surprised to the downside in late Q3, supporting our core view that it will continue to fall gradually over the coming months.

25 October. 2016 Can the Government Afford to Sacrifice the City? (Publication Centre)

When you read between the lines of its public statements on Brexit, the Government appears to be prioritising controlling immigration over maintaining unfettered access to the single market, much to the chagrin of the financial sector.

25 June 2018 Imports Still Falling as the Hurricane Surge Continues to Unwind? (Publication Centre)

The latest data from container ports around the country are consistent with our view that imports are still correcting after the surge late last year, triggered by the hurricanes.

25 July. 2016 Should We Believe the Downbeat PMI? (Publication Centre)

Last week's news that the composite PMI collapsed to 47.7 in July--its lowest level since April 2009--from 52.4 in June is the first clear indication that the U.K. is heading for a recession.

25 June 2019 A New Fall in Mexican Services is Setting the Stage for a Poor Q2 (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday in Mexico strengthened the case for interest rate cuts this year.

25 June 2019 Markets Relatively High Inflation Expectations Aren't Warranted (Publication Centre)

Financial markets' inflation expectations have risen sharply since the spring. Our first chart shows that the two-year forward rate derived from RPI inflation swaps has picked up to 3.8%, from 3.5% at the end of April.

25 October 2018 Winter is Coming for the British Housing Market (Publication Centre)

Mortgage approvals by the main high street banks dropped to a five-month low of 38.5K in September, from 39.2K in August, according to trade body U.K.Finance.

25 May. The Chancellor is Still Headed for a Mid-Parliament Fiscal Crunch (Publication Centre)

April's public finances show that borrowing still is falling more slowly than the Chancellor had envisaged. This casts further doubt over whether he will be able to keep his pledge to run a budget surplus before the end of this parliament in 2020.

26 July 2018 Today Will be a Copy Paste Job for Mr. Draghi and the ECB (Publication Centre)

Last month, the ECB set the scene for the majority of its key policy decisions over the next 12 months.

26 March 2019 Consumers are Cash-Rich and Confident Don't Worry About Them (Publication Centre)

When Fed Chair Powell said last week that the "surprise" weakness in the official retail sales numbers is "inconsistent with a significant amount of other data", we're guessing that he had in mind a couple of reports which will be updated today.

27 October. 2016 Consumers' Spending in Germany will Continue to Slow, Modestly (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's consumer confidence report in Germany was soft, in contrast to surging business sentiment data earlier in the week.

27 May. Q1 GDP Just the Beginning of a Prolonged Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The second estimate of Q1 GDP confirmed that the recovery has lost momentum and revealed that growth would have ground to a halt without consumers. GDP growth likely will slow further in Q2, as Brexit risk undermines business investment.

27 September 2017 A Stable and Solid Outlook for Private Investment in France (Publication Centre)

French business sentiment cooled marginally at the end of Q3. The headline manufacturing confidence index dipped to 110 in September, from 111 in August, though the overall business sentiment gauge was unchanged at 110.

27 September 2017 Is Abe Pulling a May? Consumption Tax and BoJ Head are at Stake (Publication Centre)

The last few years have thrown up surprise after surprise for establishment parties. Mr. Abe's Liberal Democrat Party is about as establishment as they come.

28 February 2019 China is Relying on Tax Cuts and Local Government for Stimulus (Publication Centre)

China's government overshot its deficit target last year, and probably will overshoot it by at least as much this year

28 February 2019 A Dovish Money Supply Report Ahead of the March ECB Meeting (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's January EZ money supply data offered support for investors betting on a further dovish shift by the ECB at next month's meeting.

27 March 2019 Mortgage Lending Still is Heading for a Roller Coaster Year (Publication Centre)

The mortgage market still is defying gravity. U.K. Finance initially reported yesterday that house purchase mortgage approvals by the main high street banks collapsed to 35.3K in February, from 39.6K in January.

27 March 2019 All Set for a Rebound in German Consumption Growth in H1 (Publication Centre)

German retail and consumer sentiment data for March have been mixed this week, but broadly support our call that growth in consumption should pick up soon.

26 May 2017 Soft GDP Shows Sterling's Drop to be the Least Successful Ever (Publication Centre)

The second estimate of Q1 GDP made for grim reading. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was revised down to 0.2%--the joint-slowest rate since Q4 2012--from the preliminary estimate of 0.3%.

26 March 2019 Part One Q&A from our Meetings Last Week BoJ Easing Options (Publication Centre)

Meetings are a nice way to stress test our base case stories and gauge what questions are important for clients.

26 October. 2016 Soybean Exports Set to Hold Down the Trade Deficit, Again (Publication Centre)

Today's September international trade report will be the third to be distorted by hugely elevated soybean exports. The surge began in July, when soybean exports jumped by $3.6B--that's a 220% month-to-month increase--to $5.2B.

27 February 2017 Banxico Faces Real Pressures, but bad News is Priced-In to the MXN (Publication Centre)

Mexico's policymakers are battling two opposing forces. First, inflation pressures are rising, on the back of the one-time increase in petrol prices and the lagged effect of the MXN's sell-off in Q4. These factors are pushing short-term inflation expectations higher, even though the MXN has remained relatively stable since President Trump took office and has risen by about 6% against the USD year-to-date.

27 January 2017 Trump's Plans Will Collide With Reality, But Mexico Will Suffer (Publication Centre)

U.S. President Trump on Wednesday signed an executive order aimed at delivering on his campaign pledge to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. The executive order also includes measures to boost border patrol forces and increase the number of immigration enforcement officers. As previous U.S. presidents have discovered, however, signing an executive order is one thing and fulfilling it is something else. President Obama, for instance, signed an executive order to close the Guantanamo detention facility on his second day in office.

25 June 2018 Banxico Hikes Preventively, the Next Move Will Depend on the MXN (Publication Centre)

Mexican policymakers voted unanimously last Thursday to hike the main rate by 25bp to 7.75%, the highest since early 2009.

28 June 2017 ISM Survey Suggests May Trade Deficit to Drop Sharply (Publication Centre)

The April international trade numbers were startlingly, and surprisingly, horrible. The deficit in trade in goods leaped by $6.2B -- the biggest one-month jump in two years -- to $67.1B, though the headline damage was limited by a sharp narrowing in the oil deficit, thanks to lower prices, and a rebound in the aircraft surplus.

6 March 2018 Inventories Rebounding in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The wide spread in first quarter GDP growth "trackers"--which at this point are more model and assumption than actual data--is indicative of the uncertainty surrounding the international trade and inventory components.

6 March 2018 Why China will Miss its GDP Growth, Fiscal Deficit and RMB targets (Publication Centre)

China's National People's Congress yesterday laid out its main goals for this year, on the first day of its annual meeting.

6 June 2018. We Have High Hopes for the Eurozone Consumer in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone consumers had a slow start to the second quarter. Retail sales increased a modest 0.1% month- to-month in April, but the March headline was revised up by 0.3 percentage points, and the year-over-year rate increased by 0.2pp to 1.7% due to base effects.

6 July 2018 How will the E.U. Respond to the Prime Minister's Latest Brexit Plan? (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s dysfunctional cabinet will meet at the Prime Minister's country retreat today to agree--finally--on a set of proposals for how Britain will trade outside of the E .U.'s customs union and single market.

6 July 2018 Finally, a Bit of Good News in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand in German manufacturing rebounded strongly midway through the second quarter.

6 July 2018 June Payroll Growth Likely Slowed, a Bit, Hourly Earnings are a Wild Card (Publication Centre)

The ADP private sector employment number was a bit weaker than we expected in May, and the undershoot relative to our forecast has pulled down our model's estimate for today's official number

6 May. 2016 Payrolls Likely On Trend - Watch Out for a Rebound in Wages (Publication Centre)

Barring some sort of out-of-the-blue shock, we are much more interested in the hourly earnings data today than the headline payroll number. The key question is the extent to which wages rebound after being depressed by a persistent calendar quirk in both February and March.

6 October 2017 The Mining Recovery is Driving Chile's Rebound, Will it Last? (Publication Centre)

Chile's growth dynamics were robust in August, according to the latest data. Production rose and consumption remained strong during most of Q3. Indeed, industrial output increased 5.1% year-over- year, up from an already strong 3.1% increase in July, and contrasting sharply with the 2% fall in Q2.

7 August 2018 Why are the JOLTS Job Openings Numbers so Strong (Publication Centre)

According to the official data presented in the JOLTS report, the number of job openings across the U.S. rose gently from 2011-to 13, rocketed in 2014, trended upwards much more slowly from 2015-to-17, and then, finally, unexpectedly jumped to record highs in the spring of this year.

7 December 2018 Chile's Central Bank will Stay in Cautiously Hawkish Mode in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank, the BCCh, held its reference rate unchanged at 2.75% on Tuesday, in line with the majority of analysts' forecasts.

7 April 2017 Mixed Signals for March Payrolls, but 200K Seems a Fair Bet (Publication Centre)

Everything but the weather points to a strong headline payroll number for March. Our composite leading payroll indicator has signalled robust job growth since last fall, and the message for March is very clear.

7 Apr. 2016 Peruvian Presidential Race Faces Rising Last-Minute Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

Ms Keiko Fujimori, the candidate of Peru's conservative Fuerza Popular party, seems on course to win the first round of the presidential election this Sunday, April 10. According to the latest Ipsos poll, the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori continues to lead the race, with the support or about 34% of voters.

6 September 2017 EZ Consumers' Spending Likely will Slow in Q3, but don't Panic (Publication Centre)

EZ consumers' spending slowed at the start of Q3. Retail sales slipped 0.3% month-to-month in July, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 2.6% from an upwardly revised 3.3% in June.

6 September. 2016 German Services PMI Taints an Otherwise Strong Day for EZ Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ PMI data surprised to the downside. The composite PMI in the euro area dipped to 52.9 in August, from 53.2 in July, below the initial estimate 53.3. The headline was marred by weakness in the German services PMI, which crashed to a 40-month low of 51.7, from 54.4 in July.

6 July 2017 Downside Risk for June ADP Jobs, but Official Data Will be Stronger (Publication Centre)

Today's June ADP employment report likely will undershoot the 183K consensus, but we then expect the official payroll number tomorrow to surprise to the upside.

6 January 2017 Are Markets Complacent About the Chances of a 2017 Rate Hike? (Publication Centre)

Investors have treated the upbeat message of the Markit/CIPS PMIs this week with caution and continue to think that the chance that the MPC will raise interest rates this year is remote. Overnight index swap rates currently are pricing-in just a one-in-four chance of a 25 basis point increase in Bank Rate in 2017.

5 May 2017 Surveys Signal a Solid Start to Q2, but "Hard" Data Remain Weak (Publication Centre)

Activity surveys picked up across the board in April, offering hope that the slowdown in GDP growth--to just 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q1-- will be just a blip. The headline indicators of surveys from the CBI, European Commission, Lloyds Bank and Markit all improved in April and all exceeded their 2004-to-2016 averages.

5 October 2017 ADP Confirms that Hurricanes hit Payrolls (Publication Centre)

The ADP employment report for September showed private payrolls rose by 135K, trivially better than we expected.

5 March 2019 BoJ Balance Sheet Should Send a Sharp Warning Against Yield Targets (Publication Centre)

Japan's monetary base growth slowed to just 4.6% year-over-year in February, from 4.7% in January, well below the 17% rate needed to keep the base expanding at a pace consistent with the BoJ's JGB quantity target.

5 March 2018 China's NPC Annual Session Expectations, Targets and Personnel (Publication Centre)

China's National People's Congress is set to convene its annual meeting next week.

5 February 2019 Six Days Later, We're Still Struggling to Make Sense of the Fed's Thinking (Publication Centre)

We very much doubt that Fed Chair Powell dramatically changed his position last week because President Trump repeatedly, and publicly, berated him and the idea of further increases in interest rates.

5 June 2017 May Payrolls Hit by the Calendar, Expect a Rebound, and a Fed Hike (Publication Centre)

We don't believe that payrolls rose only 138K in May. History strongly suggests that when the May payroll survey is conducted relatively early in the month, payroll growth falls short of the prior trend.

5 September 2017 How Much of a Headwind is a Stronger Euro for EZ Equities? (Publication Centre)

At the start of the year, consensus forecasts expected Eurozone equities to outperform their global peers this year, on the back of a strengthening cyclical recovery and an increase in earnings growth. Both of these conditions have been met, and yesterday's sentiment data suggest that EZ equity investors remain constructive.

5 September 2018 Should Markets Prepare for Brexit Brinkmanship in Q4 and Q1 (Publication Centre)

We would sum up the final stages of the Brexit negotiations as follows: Both sides have an interest in a deal with minimal disruptions, but we probably have to get a lot closer to the cliff- edge for the final settlement.

6 February 2018 The PMIs Show Brexit Risks are Continuing to Dampen Growth (Publication Centre)

The latest PMIs suggest that investors have jumped the gun in pricing-in a 50% chance of the MPC raising interest rates again as soon as May.

6 February 2019 Japan will be Hard Pressed to Maintain Above-Trend Growth in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Nikkei services PMI for Japan partly rebounded in January, to 51.6, after it fell sharply to 51.0 in December.

6 December 2017 Retail Sales in the EZ Plunged in October, but Will Improve Soon (Publication Centre)

Consumers' spending in the Eurozone stalled at the start of Q4. Retail sales slid 1.1% month-to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate down to a four-year low of 0.4%, from an upwardly-revised 4.0% jump in September.

6 December 2017 Low Rates Will Continue to Spur the Industrial Recovery in Brazil (Publication Centre)

Brazilian data strengthened early in Q4, supporting the case for the COPOM to slow the pace of rate cuts. We expect the SELIC policy rate to be lowered by 50bp today, to 7.0%.

6 August 2018 China's PMIs Point to a Loss of Momentum in Q3 (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs point to softening activity in Q3. The Caixin services PMI fell to 52.8 in July, from 53.9 in June.

7 December 2018 Will the BoJ be Put Off Policy Adjustments by Market Turmoil? (Publication Centre)

Recent market turmoil and concerns on the outlook for global growth have re-awakened talk of stimulus. For the BoJ, this inevitably raises the question of what could possibly be done, given that policy already appears to be on the excessively loose side of loose.

7 February 2019 Weakness in Exports Still Weighs on German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand for German manufacturing goods remained subdued at the end of Q4.

8 May 2017 Rocky Commodity Markets Put LatAm FX under Temporary Stress (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets have done well in recent weeks on the back of upbeat investor risk sentiment, low volatility in developed markets and a relatively benign USD. A less confrontational approach from the U.S. administration to trade policy has helped too.

8 May 2019 Where Current MMT Prescriptions Fall Short for Japan... and China (Publication Centre)

In our Friday Monitor, we came to the conclusion that prescriptions arising from Modern Money Theory have been designed primarily with the U.S. in mind.

8 March 2019 Payrolls Constrained by Reversals of Weather and Shutdown Boosts (Publication Centre)

Our below-consensus 125K forecast for today's February payroll number is predicated on two ideas.

8 June. 2016 Colombia's Inflation Picture Still Ugly, but it Will Improve (Publication Centre)

Brazil's interim government has been trying to put the kibosh on the vicious circle of recession, capital outflows, and political pandering that has dogged the country for so long. In his first few weeks at the helm, despite the political turmoil, Mr. Temer has started to tackle Brazil's fiscal mess, the country's biggest headache.

8 July 2019 Slump in German Manufacturing isn't Over Yet...Far From It (Publication Centre)

The German manufacturing data remain terrible. Friday's factory orders report showed that new orders plunged 2.2% month-to-month in May, convincingly cancelling out the 1.1% cumulative increase in March and April.

8 June 2017 Subdued Core Inflation Gives ECB Doves the Upper Hand Today (Publication Centre)

The ECB will keep all its policy parameters unchanged today. The refi and deposit rates will be maintained at 0.00% and -0.4%, respectively, and the pace of QE will stay at €60B per month, running until the end of the year.

9 April 2019 Inflation in the Andes Remains Tame Despite Overshooting in March (Publication Centre)

Colombia and Chile faced similar broad trends through most of 2018.

9 December. 2016 The ECB Sent a Dovish Signal Yesterday, QE is Here to Stay (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB meeting left investors with a lot of thinking to do. The central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged, but extended and tweaked its asset purchase program. QE was extended until December 2017, but the monthly pace of purchases will be reduced by €20B per month to €60B starting April next year.

9 May 2017 Colombian Inflation is Heading Lower, Despite the Pause in April (Publication Centre)

Colombia's disinflation since mid-2016 has been driven by easing pressures on food prices, weak demand, and the better performance of the COP. But higher regulated prices at the start of the second quarter have triggered a pause in the downward trend.

9 October 2017 Inflation Surprises in September, but Will Central Banks Care? (Publication Centre)

Recent inflation numbers across LatAm have surprised, in both directions. On the upside, Brazil's IPCA index rose 0.2% month-to-month in September, above the market consensus forecast of 0.1%.

9 May 2017 Chainstore Sales Rebound Points to Robust Q2 Consumption (Publication Centre)

If the Redbook chain store sales survey moved consistently in line with the official core retail sales numbers, it would attract a good deal more attention in the markets. We appreciate that brick-and-mortar retailers are losing market share to online sellers, but the rate at which sales are moving to the web is quite steady and easy to accommodate when comparing the Redbook with the official data.

9 July 2019 Japan's Machine Orders Douse Resilient Domestic Demand Hopes (Publication Centre)

The 7.8% month-on-month plunge in Japan's core machine orders in May re-emphasises the underlying weakness that we have been worrying about, after the 5.2% jump in April.

9 January 2017 Mexico Trembles Before Trump Tweets, Expect More Volatility Soon (Publication Centre)

For the MXN, last year was especially harsh. The currency endured extreme volatility, plunging 17% against the USD. So far, this year is off to a rocky start too. The MXN fell close to 2.5% during the first week of 2017.

9 July 2018 May GDP Data will have the Final Word on an August Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

Mark Carney revealed last week that recent data had given him "greater confidence" that the weakness of Q1 GDP was almost entirely due to severe weather.

8 July 2019 50 is Off the Table, Would Strong Sales and Inflation Data Kill the 25? (Publication Centre)

The June employment report pretty much killed the idea that the Fed will cut rates by 50bp on July 31.

8 January 2019 Expect to See a Real but Lukewarm Q4 GDP Recovery in Japan (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Nikkei services PMI report completed Japan's set of surveys for the fourth quarter of 2018.

7 September 2018 Low Inflation Means Policymakers to Stay Steady in Brazil and Colombia (Publication Centre)

Brazil's benchmark inflation index, the IPCA, fell 0.1% month-to-month unadjusted in August, below market expectations.

7 September 2018 Are Chinese Efforts to Stabilise Growth Starving Private Firms (Publication Centre)

China's authorities recognised, around the middle of this year, that activity was slowing and that monetary conditions had become overly tight.

7 September 2017 Jobless Claims will Rocket After Harvey, but Timing is Tricky (Publication Centre)

The jobless claims numbers today likely will mark the end of the calm before the storm effect, even though the data cover the week ended September 1, and Harvey hit on August 26.

7 June 2019 The RBI's Third Rate Cut is Overkill a U-Turn is Likely, Soon (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted yesterday to cut the benchmark repo rate by a further 25 basis points, to 5.75%, a nine-year low.

7 July 2017 Upside Risk for Payroll. Despite Soft ADP. Robust AHE a Decent Bet too (Publication Centre)

ADP's reported 158K increase in private payrolls was very close to our model-based estimate, so it doesn't change our 220K forecast for todays official payroll number, well above the 177K consensus.

7 June 2018 Car Sales Aren't Recovering Yet, Recent Data are Misleading (Publication Centre)

At first glance, car sales appear to be staging a strong recovery, mirroring the better news on high street spending in Q2.

7 September 2018 Brace for Soft Looking August Payroll and Hourly Earnings Data (Publication Centre)

In the wake of yesterday's ADP report, which showed private payrolls rising by only 163K, we have pulled down our forecast for today's official number to 170K.

8 April 2019 The Plot Thickens in Germany's Manufacturing Data (Publication Centre)

Last week's manufacturing data in Germany left investors with more questions than answers.

8 February 2019 The MPC has Gone only Half-Way to Endorsing Markets' Lower Rate Path (Publication Centre)

In the midst of heightened and potentially longerlasting Brexit uncertainty, the MPC revised down its forecast for GDP growth sharply yesterday and came close to endorsing investors' view that the chances of a 25bp rate hike before the end of this year have slipped to 50:50.

8 January 2018 Corporates' Cash Piles: a Future Source of Growth? (Publication Centre)

Business investment held up surprisingly well last year.

8 February 2019 Shaktikanta Das Starts with a Bang, Changing the Course of RBI Policy (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India shocked most forecasters yesterday, including us, with a 4-to-2 majority voting in favour of a 25-basis point rate cut.

8 February 2017 Seasonal Problems set to Depress Mortgage Applications Data (Publication Centre)

Mortgage applications have risen, net, over the past couple of months, despite the 70bp surge in 30-year mortgage rates since the election. Indeed, we'd argue that the increase in applications is a result of the spike in rates, because it likely scared would-be homebuyers, triggering a wave of demand from people seeking to lock-in rates, fearing further increases.

8 August. 2016 Wage Gains Set to Slide in August, Delaying the Fed Until December (Publication Centre)

We were happy to see the 255K gain in July payrolls, but we remain nervous about the sustainability of such strong numbers. The jump in employment was very large relative to some of the key survey-based indicators of the pace of hiring, even after allowing for the 29K favorable swing in the birth/ death model, compared to a year ago, and the 27K jump in state and local government education jobs, likely due to seasonal adjustment problems

5 December 2018 Mr. Macron Blinks in the Face of Violence and Chaos in Paris (Publication Centre)

The violent protests in France claimed their first victims over the weekend, providing sombre evidence of the severity of the situation for the government.

24 May 2019 Switching Our Brexit Base Case From Soft Departure to Paralysis (Publication Centre)

The chances of our Brexit base case--a soft departure just before the current October 31 deadline--playing out have declined sharply over the last two weeks.

3 April 2019 An Abysmal February will Destroy Q1 GDP Growth in Korea (Publication Centre)

Don't expect a pretty picture when Korea's Q1 GDP report appears in the last week of April.

3 August 2018 Does the BoJ Believe in Targeting 2% Inflation Anymore? (Publication Centre)

Why should Japan, the U.S., the Euro Area, the U.K. and Japan all have the same inflation target?

3 April 2019 A Decent Industrial Report in Brazil, but the Rebound Remains Subpar (Publication Centre)

Brazil's February industrial production numbers, labour market data, and sentiment indicators are gradually providing clarity on the underlying pace of activity growth, pointing to some red flags.

29 October 2018 Bolsonaro Likely Won Brazil's Presidency, the Hard Work Begins (Publication Centre)

Recent polls suggest that Jair Bolsonaro has comfortably beaten Fernando Haddad, to become Brazil's president.

29 May 2018 EM Markets Remain Under Stress, but will LatAm Resist the Pressure? (Publication Centre)

A long period of extremely accommodative U.S. monetary policy generated sizable capital inflows and asset price appreciation in EM countries.

29 May. 2015 Stable GDP Growth and Moderately Higher Inflation in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Money supply data today should provide further confirmation of a moderate upturn in the Eurozone credit cycle. We think broad money growth, M3, accelerated to 5.0% year-over-year in April, up from 4.6% in March.

3 August 2018 Strong Job Growth Likely Continued in June Wage Gains Still Modest (Publication Centre)

We look for a 210K increase in July payrolls. That would be consistent with the message from an array of private sector surveys, as well as the recent trend.

3 August 2018 The MPC's Hawkish Forecasts Remain Overshadowed by Brexit (Publication Centre)

The MPC made a concerted effort yesterday with its forecasts to signal that it is committed to raising Bank Rate at a faster rate than markets currently expect.

3 July 2019 Further Signs of a Q2 Slowdown in German Consumption (Publication Centre)

German retail sales always have to be taken with a pinch of salt, given their monthly volatility and often substantial revisions, but the preliminary Q2 data don't look pretty.

3 Mar. 2015 Weak Euro Boosts Orders for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

Industrial companies in the Eurozone are still struggling with low growth, but the outlook is stabilising following the near-recession late last year. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 51.0 in February, trivially lower than the initial estimate of 51.1.

3 July 2019 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Showing Early Signs of Gradual Stabilization (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in Brazil underscored the effect of weaker external conditions. This adds to the poor domestic demand picture, which has been hit by high, albeit easing, political uncertainty.

3 February 2017 Upside Risk For Payrolls and Hourly Earnings in January Data Today (Publication Centre)

Our payroll model relies heavily on lagged indicators of the pace of hiring, most of which have improved in recent months after a sustained, though modest, softening which began last spring. That's why we expected an above-consensus reading from ADP on Wednesday and from the BLS today.

3 December 2018 Brazil's Solid Q3 GDP Data Pave the Way for an Upbeat 2019 (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that Brazil's recovery has continued over the second half of the year, supported by steady household consumption and rebounding capex.

3 December 2018 Tariff Deferment Shows Both Sides Want a Deal, but it Will Take Time (Publication Centre)

The agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 is a deferment of disaster rather than a fundamental rebuilding of the trading relationship between the U.S. and China.

29 March 2019 Is There Any Way Through the Brexit Bind? (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister appears set to have one more go at getting the House of Commons to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement today.

Samuel Tombs

Samuel Tombs has more than a decade of experience covering the U.K. economy for investors. At Pantheon, Samuel's research is rigorous, free of dogma and jargon, and unafraid to challenge consensus views. His work focuses on what matters to professional investors: The links between the real economy, monetary policy and asset prices. He has a strong track record of getting the big calls right. The Sunday Times ranked Samuel as the most accurate forecaster of the U.K. economy in both 2014 and 2018. In addition, Bloomberg consistently has ranked Samuel as one of the top three U.K. forecasters, out of pool of 35 economists, throughout 2018 and 2019. His in-depth knowledge of market-moving data and his forensic forecasting approach explain why he consistently beats the consensus. Samuel's work on Brexit goes beyond simply reporting developments and is always analytical and unbiased, enabling investors to see through the noise of the daily headlines. While his analysis points to a particular path that politicians will take, he acknowledges the inherent uncertainty and draws out the economic and financial market implications of all plausible Brexit scenarios. Samuel holds an MSc in Economics from Birkbeck College, University of London and an undergraduate degree in History and Economics from the University of Oxford. Prior to joining Pantheon in 2015, he was Senior U.K. Economist at Capital Economics. In 2011, Samuel won the Society of Business Economists' prestigious Rybczynski Prize for an article on quantitative easing in the UK. He is based in London but frequently visits our other offices. Recent key calls include: 2018 - Correctly forecast that GDP growth would slow and inflation would undershoot the MPC's initial forecast, prompting the Committee to shock investors and almost other economists by waiting until August to raise Bank Rate, rather than pressing ahead in May. 2017 - Argued that the MPC was wrong to expect CPI inflation to stay below 3% following sterling's depreciation. He also highlighted that economic indicators pointed to the Conservatives losing their outright majority in the snap general election.

29 January 2019 A Guide to Today's Key Brexit Votes in Parliament (Publication Centre)

Votes in the House of Commons to day likely will mark the start of MPs stamping their collective will on the Brexit process, following the Prime Minister's botched attempt at getting the current Withdrawal Agreement--WA--and Political Declaration through parliament earlier this month.

29 July 2019 China's GDP Headlines Overstate Growth but Q2 Wasn't all Bad News (Publication Centre)

China's Q2 real GDP growth officially slowed to 6.2% year-over-year, from 6.4% in Q1, which already matched the trough in the financial crisis.

Claus Vistesen

Claus Vistesen has several years' experience in the independent macro research space, as a freelancer, consultant and, latterly, as Head of Research of Variant Perception, Inc. He holds Master's degrees in economics and finance from the Copenhagen Business School and the University of Hull.

29 August 2018 Mexico's Prospects to Improve Following the New NAFTA Pact (Publication Centre)

Mexico's risk profile and financial metrics have improved in recent days, following news of a preliminary bilateral trade deal with the U.S. on Monday.

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Monthly publication telling the economic story of each region in roughly 40 charts

29 April 2019 Ten Reasons to Expect a Hawkish Nudge from the MPC this Week (Publication Centre)

The MPC likely will vote unanimously to keep Bank Rate at 0.75% on Thursday.

Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.

29 July. 2016 Brace for Downside Surprise in Today's Advance Q2 EZ GDP Data (Publication Centre)

Today's Eurozone data schedule is very hectic, but attention likely will focus on advance Q2 GDP data. France, Austria and Spain will report advance data separately ahead of the EZ aggregate estimate, which is released 11.00 CET. This report will include a confidential number from Germany.

29 March 2019 Debt-Assisted Household Spending Will Keep Potential BoK Cuts at Bay (Publication Centre)

Korea's business survey index rose for a second straight month in March, to 75 from 73 in February, on our adjustment.

29 March 2019 German Core Inflation Slumped in March, but it will Rebound in April (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday revealed that headline inflation in Germany was unchanged in March at 1.5%, thanks mainly to higher energy inflation, which offset a dip in food inflation.

29 March 2018 Korean GDP Should Bounce Back in Q1, but Faces Headwinds Thereafter (Publication Centre)

The picture for Korean quarterly real GDP growth in Q4 was unchanged in the final reading, published yesterday, showing a contraction of 0.2%, after the 1.4% jump in Q3.

29 June 2018 Trade Tensions Unveil Chinese Financial Fragility (Publication Centre)

In previous Monitors, we have outlined our base case that the direct impact of tariffs on Chinese GDP will be minimal this year.

Andres Abadia

Andres Abadia authors our Latin American service. Andres is a native of Colombia and has many years' experience covering the global economy, with a particular focus on Latin America. In 2017, he won the Thomson Reuters Starmine Top Forecaster Award for Latam FX. Andres's research covers Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela, focusing on economic, political and financial developments. The countries of Latin America differ substantially in terms of structure, business cycle and politics, and Andres' researchhighlights the impact of these differences on currencies, interest rates and equity markets. He believes that most LatAm economies are heavily influenced by cyclical forces in the U.S. and China, as well as domestic policy shocks and local politics. He keeps a close eye on both external and domestic developments to forecast their effects on LatAm economies, monetary policy, and financial markets. Before starting to work at Pantheon Macroeconomics in 2013, Dr. Abadia was the Head of Research for Arcalia/Bancaja (now Bankia) in Madrid, and formerly Chief Economist for the same institution. Previously, he worked at Ahorro Coporacion Financiera, as an Economist. Andres earned a PhD in Applied Economics, and a Masters Degree in Economics and International Business Administration from Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, and a BSc in Economics from the Universidad Externado de Colombia.

3 March 2017 Yellen and Fischer Won't Push Back Against a March Rate Hike Today (Publication Centre)

Speeches by Chair Yellen and Vice-Chair Fischer give the two most important Fed officials the perfect platform today to signal to markets whether rates will rise this month.

3 May 2019 Is Japan MMT-ing Sort of, but this Prescription was Aimed at the U.S. (Publication Centre)

Modern Money Theory has come up at two consecutive BoJ press conferences.

4 December 2017 Britain Will be Forever Stuck in the Brexit Departure Lounge (Publication Centre)

Sterling strengthened last week to its highest tradeweighted level since mid-May, amid hopes that the U.K. government will concede more ground to ensure that the European Council deems, at its December 14 meeting, that "sufficient progress" has been made in Brexit talks for trade discussions to begin

4 December 2018 The China-U.S Trade Truce Eases Downside Risks for Chile and Peru (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets and currencies enjoyed a good start to the week, following the agreement between the U.S. and China to pause the trade war.

4 April 2019 Japan's Services Survey Data Overstate Q1 Strength (Publication Centre)

Japan's services PMI edged down to 52.0 in March, from 52.3 in February, taking the Q1 average to 52.0, minimally up from Q4's 51.9.

4 April 2018 Japan's Tankan Points to Building Inflationary Pressure (Publication Centre)

The Tankan survey--published on Monday--points to still buoyant sentiment, a further tightening of the labour market, and building inflation pressures.

4 April 2017 Mexican Markets Had a Good Q1, the Next Test is on the Political Front (Publication Centre)

LatAm, particularly Mexico, has dealt with Donald Trump's presidency better than expected thus far. Indeed, the MXN rose 10.7% against the USD in Q1, the stock market has recovered after its initial post-Trump plunge, and risk metrics have eased significantly.

Miguel Chanco

Miguel Chanco helps to produce Pantheon's Asia service, having covered several parts of the region for nearly ten years. He was most recently the Lead Analyst for ASEAN at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Prior to that role, Miguel focused on India and frontier markets in South Asia for Capital Economics and BMI Research, Fitch Group.

4 February 2019 Brazil's Q4 Industrial Weakness was Offset by Robust Consumption (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production and labour reports, released late last week, confirmed that the recovery was struggling at the end of last year.

4 January 2019 Bank Equities can do Well in 2019, even as Credit Growth Slows (Publication Centre)

Money supply growth in the euro area eased further towards the end of Q4.

4 October 2018 ADP Likely Overstates September Payrolls (Publication Centre)

The ADP employment report suggests that the hit to payrolls from Hurricane Florence was smaller than we feared, so we're revising up our forecast for the official number tomorrow to 150K, from 100K.

5 Apr. 2016 Is the Dip in the Dollar Already Lifting Demand for U.S. Exports? (Publication Centre)

The advance trade data for February make it very likely that today's full report will show the headline deficit rose by about $½B compared to March, thanks to rising net imports of both capital and consumer goods, which were only partly offset by improvements in the oil and auto accounts.

4 October 2017 ADP to Show Slower Job Gains Last Month, but will Overstate BLS Data (Publication Centre)

Today brings the first glimpse of the post-hurricane employment picture, in the form of the September ADP report.

4 May 2017 How to Interpret the Results from Today's Local Elections (Publication Centre)

Today's local elections are more important than usual, because they will enable investors to assess if the Conservatives really are on track for a landslide victory in the general election, as suggested by the opinion polls and priced-in by the forex market.

4 March 2019 The EZ Core CPI Rate Remains Motionless at About 1% (Publication Centre)

Last week's final barrage of data showed that EZ headline inflation rose slightly last month, by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5%, driven mainly by increases in the unprocessed food energy components.

31 July 2018 Japanese Q2 GDP Growth Should Rebound Strongly (Publication Centre)

Japan's June retail sales data add to the run of numbers suggesting a strong rebound in real GDP growth in Q2, after the 0.2% contraction in activity in Q1.

30 September 2016 Today's Eurozone Inflation Data Likely Will Surprise to the Upside (Publication Centre)

Today's advance CPI data will show that EZ inflation pressures rose further at the end of Q3. The headline number likely will exceed the consensus. We think inflation rose to 0.5% year-over-year in September from 0.2% in August, slightly higher than the 0.4% consensus.

30 January 2017 Can the Second Half Growth Momentum Carry into this Year? (Publication Centre)

We were nervous ahead of the GDP numbers on Friday, wondering if our forecast of a 1.5 percentage point hit from foreign trade was too aggressive. In the event, though, the trade hit was a huge 1.7pp, so domestic demand rose at a 3.5% pace.

30 January 2018 Is Sterling's Strong Start to 2018 Warranted? (Publication Centre)

Sterling has begun this year on the front foot, rising last week to its highest level against the U.S. dollar since June 2016.

30 April 2018 The Q1 Slowdown Wasn't Just Weather-related (Publication Centre)

Last week's preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP has extinguished any lingering chance that the MPC might raise interest rates at its next meeting on May 10.

30 April 2018 The BoJ is Getting Cold Feet on its 2% Inflation Target (Publication Centre)

The BoJ kept policy unchanged last week, but made a significant change to its communication, dropping its previous explicit statement on the timing for hitting the inflation target.

3 October 2017 Manufacturing Powers Ahead, Supported by External Demand (Publication Centre)

The Asian PMIs point to a strengthening manufacturing sector in September but external demand is the driver.

3 October 2018 September ADP Employment Likely Subdued, thanks to Florence (Publication Centre)

We're fully expecting to see a hit to September payrolls from Hurricane Florence, which struck during the employment survey week.

30 July 2018 Do Rising Tokyo CPI Housing Costs Matter for the BoJ's July Meeting? (Publication Centre)

Tokyo inflation surprised us on Friday, rising to 0.9% in July, from 0.6% in June.

30 May 2018 ADP Likely to Report Solid Gain in May Payrolls (Publication Centre)

The models which generate the ADP measure of private payrolls will benefit in May from the strength of the headline industrial production, business sales and jobless claims numbers.

30 October 2017 New Elections in Catalonia Beckon as Madrid Activates Article 155 (Publication Centre)

The headlines from Catalonia are as confusing as ever, but we are sticking to our view--see here--that regional elections are the only reasonable outcome of the chaos.

30 October 2018 Fiscal Loosening Creates Space for Two MPC Rate Hikes Next Year (Publication Centre)

This Budget will be remembered as the moment when the Government finally threw in the towel on plans to run sustainable public finances.

Freya Beamish

Freya Beamish produces the Asia service at Pantheon. She has several years of experience in covering the global economy, with a particular focus on China, Japan and Korea. Previously, she worked at Lombard Street Research (now TS Lombard), where she delivered research on Asia and the Global economy for over five years, latterly as the manager of the Macroeconomics group.

30 October 2017 Is China's Profits Surge Driving up Developers' Short-term Borrowing? (Publication Centre)

Chinese industrial profits continue to surge, rising 27.7% year-over-year in September, up from 24.0% in August.

30 May 2019 The German Labour Market Finally Realises that Growth has Slowed (Publication Centre)

Reporting on the German labour market has been like watching paint dry in this expansion, but yesterday's data were a stark exception to this rule.

29 April 2019 BoJ Wakes up to China's Slowdown, Goes into Lockdown (Publication Centre)

The BoJ until last week had been in wait-and-see mode over China's slowdown, but they finally folded with Thursday's decision.

23 January 2017 ECB: Can the Eurozone Consumer Keep Up the Good Work in 2017? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone has come under the spotlight for its growing external surplus, but domestic households have been doing the heavy lifting for GDP growth in this business cycle. During the last four quarters, consumers' spending has boosted year-over-year GDP growth by an average of 1.0 percentage points, in contrast to a 0.4pp drag from net exports.

11 September 2018 The Trade Wars are Neutral in China's Trade Surplus, so far (Publication Centre)

At the time of writing, Mr. Trump reportedly is finalising plans to impose tariffs of up to 25% on a further $200B of imports from China.

11 September 2018 July's Strong-Looking GDP Growth Rate Will Be This Year's Peak (Publication Centre)

Markets rightly interpreted yesterday's above consensus GDP report as having little impact on the outlook for monetary policy.

16 Mar. 2016 EZ Employment Rising Steadily, but Structural Challenges Persist (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone labour market is slowly healing following two severe recessions since 2008. Unemployment fell to a two-year low of 10.3% in January, and yesterday's quarterly labour force survey was upbeat. Fourth quarter employment rose 1.2% year-over-year, up from 1.1% in Q3, pushing total EZ employment to a new post-crisis high of 152 million.

16 July 2019 Better External Conditions will Support Brazil's Recovery (Publication Centre)

The ramifications of continued disappointing Asian growth, particularly in China, and its impact on global manufacturing, are especially hard-felt in LatAm.

16 July 2018 Upside Risks to the Consensus for June CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

We expect June's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation increased to 2.7%, from 2.4% in May, above the consensus, 2.6%, and the Bank of England's forecast, 2.5%.

16 March 2018 New Car Sales in the Eurozone are Solid, But Italy is a Grim Outlier (Publication Centre)

Growth in new EZ car sales slipped last month, following a strong start to the year. New registrations rose 4.4% year-over-year in February, slowing from a 8.7% rise in January.

16 Sept. 2015 Industry in Less-Bad Shape Than August Data Suggest - Q4 Better? (Publication Centre)

We aren't going to pretend for a minute that the manufacturing sector is anything other than weak, but the 0.5% drop in output in August--the worst month since January 2014--hugely overstates the extent of industry's struggles. All the decline was due to a 6.4% plunge in auto output, but a glance at the recent path of production in this sector makes it very clear that its short-term swings aren't to be taken seriously. Auto production fell by 4.5% in June, rocketed by 10.6% in July, and then dropped sharply in August.

17 July 2018 Will Price Changes Spare the Blushes of EZ Net Trade in 2018 (Publication Centre)

The euro area's trade surplus slipped further mid- way through the second quarter; falling to a 15-month low of €16.9B in May, from a downwardly-revised €18.0B in April, and extending its descent from last year's peak of nearly €24.0B.

17 July 2018 Are we Convinced by China's Q2 Official GDP Growth Story (Publication Centre)

Chinese real GDP growth reportedly edged down to 6.7% year-over-year in Q2, from 6.8% in Q1.

17 January 2019 Chinese GDP Growth Likely Remained Weak in Q4 (Publication Centre)

China's GDP data--to be published on Monday-- are likely to report that growth slowed to 1.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, from 1.6% in Q3. A 1.4% increase would match the series low of Q1 2016.

17 August 2018 Net Exports in the EZ Probably Will be a Drag on Growth in 2018 (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's trade surplus remained subdued at the end of the second quarter; it dipped to €16.7B in June from €16.9B in May.

16 Feb. 2015 Central Banks in LatAm Concerned about Inflation Pass-Through (Publication Centre)

Central banks in Chile, Peru, and Mexico hogged the market spotlight last week. Chile left its main interest rate at 3.0% on Thursday, for the fourth consecutive meeting.

16 Dec. 2014 Political Gamble in Greece Raises Market Risks over the Holidays (Publication Centre)

Political risks have returned to the Eurozone with the decision by Greek Prime Minister Samaras to initiate the election of a president, raising the risk of a Greek parliamentary election early next year.

12 July 2019 What's Behind China's Likely 0.2pp Slippage in Q2 Real GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

China's Q2 official GDP growth, to be released on Monday, likely slowed to 6.2% year-over-year, from 6.4% in Q1.

16 August 2017 As Good as it Gets for German GDP Growth in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Q2 GDP report in Germany was solid, but the headline disappointed slightly. GDP growth slowed to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter from an upwardly- revised 0.7% rise in Q1. The year-over-year rate, however, rose to 2.1% from a revised 2.0% in Q1.

12 June 2019 Markets Having Cake and Eating it will be Caught out by the BoJ (Publication Centre)

Central bankers globally are full of market- appeasing but conditional statements.

12 March 2018 Weak Production Data Signal Soft January in Germany and France (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production headlines in the Eurozone were weak, but the details tell a more nuanced story.

12 July 2018 Brexit Risk is Starting to Take a Heavy Toll on Exports (Publication Centre)

Hopes that GDP growth might be boosted soon by a pick-up in net exports continue to be undermined by the latest data.

12 December 2017 Core PPI Inflation Is Rising Rapidly. Even as Core CPI PCE Slow (Publication Centre)

The sudden downshift in core inflation at the consumer level since March, clearly visible in the CPI and the PCE, and shown in our first chart, has been accompanied by a steady increase in core producer price inflation.

16 August 2018 Mixed Signals from Italy on the 2019 Budget Prepare for Volatility (Publication Centre)

Italy's political leadership faces its first biggest test in autumn, when it has to deliver its first budget.

10 April 2019 The ECB will Double-Down Today on its Recent Dovish Shift (Publication Centre)

The ECB will rest on its laurels today.

16 August 2018 Domestic Demand Strength from Q2 Spilled Over into Early Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's wave of data suggested that a good part of the strength in final demand in the second quarter was sustained into the first month of this quarter, and perhaps the second too.

12 Aug 2019 China's CPI--PPI Split will Persist, the PPI will Dictate Policymaking (Publication Centre)

The PBoC will find itself between a rock and a hard place in the coming months, as CPI inflation creeps further up towards its 3% target but PPI deflation deepens.

17 July 2019 Consumers Leading the Way, but is Manufacturing Close to a Floor (Publication Centre)

We have revised up our second quarter consumption forecast to a startling 4.0% in the wake of yesterday's strong June retail sales numbers, which were accompanied by upward revisions to prior data.

17 July. 2015 Will June Core Inflation Reflect the Upside Surprise in the PPI? (Publication Centre)

June's headline CPI, due this morning, will be boosted by the rebound in gasoline prices, but market focus will be on the core, in the wake of the startling, broad-based jump in the core PPI, reported Wednesday. Core PPI consumer goods prices jumped by 0.7% in June, with big incr eases in the pharmaceuticals, trucks and cigarette components, among others. The year-over-year rate of increase rose to 3.0%, up from 2.1% at the turn of the year and the biggest gain since August 2012. Then, the trend was downwards.

18 May 2018 Did Markets Jump the Gun on Japan's Recovery? (Publication Centre)

Downward revisions to Japan's Q4 real GDP growth, published on Wednesday, lead us to revisit our main worry over the durability of the recovery; namely, that monetary conditions appear to be signalling a slowdown.

18 May. 2016 Colombia's Domestic Demand Fell in Q1 - Better News Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Activity in Colombia cooled at the end of the first quarter, in the face of many domestic and external headwinds. Retail sales, for example, plunged 2.9% in March after a 4.6% leap in February. The headline likely was depressed by the early Easter, as March had one fewer trading day than February.

18 May 2018 Challenging Times for the BCB, Weak Growth and EM Risks Rising (Publication Centre)

Brazil's monetary authority adopted a neutral tone and kept its main rate on hold at 6.5% at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, surprising investors.

18 May 2018 Are Valuations a Silver Lining for Eurozone Equities Into Year-End? (Publication Centre)

"Disappointing" is probably the word that most EZ equity investors would use to describe their market so far this year.

18 May 2017 The Revival in Eurozone Construction is Real. Don't Miss It (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone construction sector took a step back at the end of Q1, but only temporarily. Construction output fell 1.1% month-to-month in March, after a revised 5.5% jump in February. The year-over-year rate slipped to +3.6%, from a two-year high of 5.5% in February.

13 March 2019 Drawing the Right Conclusion from the ECB's Recent Decisions (Publication Centre)

Last week's decision by the ECB to keep rates unchanged until the beginning of 2020, at least, raises one overarching question for markets.

11 January 2019 Benign Inflation in Mexico at the Year-end, but Pressures Remain (Publication Centre)

Mexico's inflation rate ended 2018 in line with market expectations, strengthening the case for interest rates to remain on hold in the near term.

19 January 2018 The COP and MXN are Rising, but Domestic Politics are a Big Hurdle (Publication Centre)

NAFTA-related news has been mixed over the last few weeks.

19 December 2017 Eurozone Core Inflation Remains Comfortably Low for Bond Markets (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final CPI report confirmed that inflation in the euro area increased slightly last month. The headline rate rose to 1.5%, from 1.4% in October, lifted by a 1.7 percentage point increase in energy inflation to 4.9%.

18 September 2018 All Aboard for Lower Headline Inflation in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final CPI report confirmed that inflation in the EZ fell marginally in August, by 0.1 percentage points to 2.0%.

18 October 2017 Core Inflation in the EZ Dipped in September, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final CPI report in the Eurozone confirmed that headline inflation was unchanged at 1.5% in September.

11 January 2019 MPs Will Steer the PM to a Softer Brexit After Next Week's Defeat (Publication Centre)

The government remains on course to lose next Tuesday's Commons vote on the Withdrawal Agreement--WA--by a huge margin.

18 June 2018 Hope Springs Eternal for Higher Core Goods Inflation in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Friday's data in the Eurozone confirmed that inflation rose sharply last month. Headline inflation increased to 1.9%, from 1.2% in April, and core inflation also rose, by 0.4 percentage points to 1.1%.

17 September 2018 China's August Activity Headlines are Misleading on Multiple Counts (Publication Centre)

The headlines of China's August activity data are missing the real story in recent months.

17 September 2018 Brazilian Consumers' Spending is Slowing, but it Won't Collapse (Publication Centre)

Evidence of slowing growth in Brazil consumers' spending continues to mount.

17 May 2017 With the MXN Stable, Banxico Likely Won't Hike this Week (Publication Centre)

Mexico's central bank likely will pause its monetary tightening on Thursday, keeping the main rate at 6.5%. A hike this week would follow five consecutive increases, totalling 350bp since December 2015, when policymakers were first overwhelmed by the MXN's sell-off.

10 December 2018 Parliamentary Maths Points to Only One Plan B for the Prime Minister (Publication Centre)

Unless it blinks and delays, the government is on course for a hefty defeat on Tuesday, when it asks parliament to vote to approve the Withdrawal Agreement--WA--and Political Declaration.

11 May. 2016 Inflation Pressures Easing in LatAm Following FX Appreciation (Publication Centre)

Mexican inflation pressures eased towards the start of Q2. Inflation fell to 2.5% year-over-year in April from 2.6% in March, due to a sharp fall in energy inflation--as a result of the introduction of new electricity tariffs in the warm season--and a fall in the rate of increase of fresh food prices. Depressed energy prices will continue to constrain inflation in coming months, but base effects will reduce the drag later this year.

17 September 2018 The EZ Output Gap Has Closed, But will Inflation Follow? (Publication Centre)

Last week's comments by Mr. Draghi--see here-- indicate that the ECB is increasingly confident that core inflation will continue to move slowly towards the target of "below, but close to 2%", despite elevated external risks, and marginally tighter monetary policy.

18 July 2018 Car Sales Likely Lifted EZ Durable Goods Consumption in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Momentum in the EZ auto sector rebounded at the end of the second quarter.

11 March 2019 Inflation Data in the Andes Validate Forecasts for Stable Interest Rates (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Andes remains in check and the near term will be benign, suggesting that central banks will remain on hold over the coming months.

18 December 2018 The ECB will have to Lower its Core CPI Forecast, Again, in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in the Eurozone edged lower last month.

18 August. 2016 What are the Chances of 4%-plus Growth in the Third Quarter? (Publication Centre)

The latest model-based third quarter GDP forecast from the Atlanta Fed is 3.6%, well above the 2.5% consensus forecast reported by Bloomberg. We are profoundly skeptical of so-called "tracking models" of GDP growth, because they are based mostly on forecasts and assumptions until very close to the actual GDP release.

16 Aug 2019 Eurozone Governments Have Fiscal Room, Will they use it (Publication Centre)

"Is EZ fiscal stimulus on the way?" is a question that we receive a lot these days.

16 April 2018 Chinese New Year Holiday Effects Spill over into the March Trade Data (Publication Centre)

The holiday effects are at it again. C hina's trade balance dropped to a deficit of $5.0B in March, from a surplus of $33.5B in February, confounding expectations for a surplus of $27.5B.

07 October. 2016 Don't Mistake Volatility in Production and Trade for Underlying Strength (Publication Centre)

The consensus view that industrial production rose by a mere 0.1% month-to-month in August looks far too low; we expect today's report to reveal a jump of about 1%.

14 May 2018 Brazil's Domestic Consumption Will Continue to do Well, Despite Threats (Publication Centre)

Data released last week in Brazil reinforced our view of a modest, final, interest rate cut this week, despite the recent strength of the USD and volatility in global markets.

13 February 2018 China's Firms Mindful of Intensified Enforcement of Financial Regulation (Publication Centre)

Chinese monetary conditions remain tight. Systemic tightening through higher interest rates last year is playing a role, but intensified and ever- more public regulatory enforcement is becoming the primary driver of tightening credit conditions for businesses.

14 June 2017 Retail Sales Show Brazil's Gradual Consumer Recovery Continues (Publication Centre)

Evidence of a modest upturn in Brazilian consumers' spending continues to mount. Retail sales rose 1.0% month-to-month in April, pushing the year-over-rate up to +1.9%, from an upwardly-revised -3.2% in March.

07 October. 2016 Relief as New Orders in German Manufacturing Rise Strongly (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German factory orders report showed that manufacturing activity accelerated in August. New orders rose 1.0% month-to-month, after a 0.3% increase in July, pushing the year-over-year rate up to +2.1% from a revised -0.6%.

14 May 2019 China's Retaliation is a Face-Saving Operation Somebody Tell Mr. Trump (Publication Centre)

Yesterday, China finally retaliated against Mr. Trump's Friday tariff hikes, promising to increase tariffs on around $60B-worth of U.S. goods.

14 Oct. 2015 Stable Manufacturing, but External Risks Are Still Present (Publication Centre)

Mexican industrial production data for August were a little stronger-than-expected. Output rose 1.0% year-over-year, for the second consecutive month, and marginally higher than the 0.6% average growth in the second quarter. The rise in production in August is encouraging, especially the strong manufacturing component, which accounts for about half of all output.

13 April 2018 The MPC Hasn't Been Afraid to Shock Markets in the Past (Publication Centre)

Many analysts argue that the MPC inevitably will raise interest rates at its May 10 meeting because markets have fully priced-in a 25bp uplift.

15 August 2018 Soft July Headline Retail Sales Numbers will Hide a Solid Core (Publication Centre)

The first wave of domestic third quarter data crashes ashore this morning.

13 August 2018 The 2018 Story is Intact: Slower GDP growth, and Higher Inflation (Publication Centre)

A sluggish GDP headline, a further increase in inflation, and poor German manufacturing data were the primary euro area highlights in our absence.

14 September 2018 A Tough Fiscal Overhaul to Avoid a Collapse Can Macri Succeed (Publication Centre)

Argentina's central bank held interest rates at 60% on Wednesday, as was widely expected.

13 July 2018 China's Official Real GDP Growth will Paint a Muddled Picture for Q2 (Publication Centre)

Official, real GDP growth was low in Q1, at 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, down from 1.6% in Q4.

08 May. 2015 Payroll Set to Rebound In April - a Return to the 275K Trend? (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the soft-looking ADP employment report released on Wednesday, the true consensus for today's official payroll number likely is lower than the 230K reported in the Bloomberg survey. As we argued in the Monitor yesterday, though, we view ADP as a lagging indicator and we don't use it is as a forecasting tool.

13 May 2019 Poor Data in Mexico are Gradually Setting the Stage for Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

External and domestic shocks in Mexico over the last two years, including the "gasolinazo", NAFTA renegotiation and the presidential election, have put the country's financial metrics under severe stress and pushed inflation to cyclical highs.

24 May 2019 A Little bit of Everything in the May EZ Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of survey data were a mixed bag. The composite EZ PMI edged higher in May to 51.6, from 51.5 in April, but the details were less upbeat, and also slightly confusing.

1 July 2019 The June Jump in the EZ C ore CPI Won't Shift the Dovish ECB (Publication Centre)

Friday's inflation data in the Eurozone were a mixed bag.

13 May 2019 Inflation in Rents and Other Services is Rising, Further Gains Ahead (Publication Centre)

The core CPI inflation rate rose in April to 2.1% from 2.0%, thanks to unfavorable rounding, despite the below consensus 0.14% month-to-month print.

13 September 2017 The French Labour Market is on the Up. Will Reforms Follow? (Publication Centre)

In theory, the headline labour market data in France should be a source of comfort and support for the new government.

14 Aug 2019 Japanese Policymakers Shouldn't take Domestic Demand For Granted (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q2 GDP was driven by the twin pillars of private consumption and capex.

14 December 2018 Brazil's Central Bank Points to Rates on Hold for the Foreseeable Future (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian central bank left its benchmark Selic interest rate on hold at 6.5% on Wednesday night and confirmed our view that policymakers will stand pat for the foreseeable future, provided the BRL remains stable and Mr. Bolsonaro is able to push forward his reform agenda.

1 Aug 2019 Trade Talks Restart China's Woes Will Help to Keep Them Going (Publication Centre)

Trade talks between the U.S. and China officially resumed this week, with the first face-to-face meeting of the main negotiators taking place yesterday in Shanghai.

13 June 2019 The Used Car Drag on Core Inflation Probably is Over Trend Still 2% (Publication Centre)

The core CPI rose only 0.1% in May, marking the fourth straight soft reading.

13 March 2017 A Slowdown in the U.K. Will Dent the German Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Germany's external surplus remained resilient at the start of the year. Data on Friday showed that the seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose marginally to €18.5B in January, from a revised €18.3B in December.

04 Mar. 2016 Solid Services Activity Continues to Limit the Slide in the PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final February PMI data were slightly stronger than expected, due to upbeat services data. The composite PMI in the Eurozone fell to 53.0, a bit above the initial 52.7 estimate, from 53.6 in January. The PMI likely will dip slightly in Q1 on average, compared to Q4, but it continues to indicate stable GDP growth of about 0.3%-to-0.4% quarter-on-quarter.

15 December 2016 EZ Manufacturing will Recover Quickly from its Poor Start to Q4 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone manufacturers had an underwhelming start to Q4. Data yesterday showed that production fell 0.1% month-to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.6%, from a revised 1.3% in September. Output was constrained mostly by weakness in France and a big month-to-month fall in Ireland, which offset marginal gains in Germany and Spain.

15 March 2018 Old-Guard Industry gets a Q1 Reprieve, but it's Temporary (Publication Centre)

Industrial production bounced back in February. These data point to a reprieve for old-guard dirty industry, after stringent anti-pollution curbs were put in place in Q4.

15 June 2018 The PBoC Throws Out the Housekeeping Growth is Slowing (Publication Centre)

The PBoC has left rates unchanged, so far, in the wake of the Fed hike.

12 March 2019 The Data are Choppy, but Chinese Monetary Conditions are Loosening (Publication Centre)

Monetary policy loosening over the last year implies that China's M1 growth already should be picking up.

1 May 2018 Why has Consumers' Confidence Suddenly Deteriorated Again? (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the timing of the drop in the E.C.'s measure of consumers' confidence, to its lowest level since July 2016 in April, is peculiar.

15 March 2019 Will Brazil's Supply and Demand Divergence Continue this Year (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector keeps losing momentum, despite interest rates at record lows and improving confidence.

1 October 2018 The Current Account Deficit Remains Sterling's Achilles' Heel (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s still-large current account deficit makes us nervous that sterling will need to depreciate further over the medium-term and would collapse if Brexit talks fail, causing international investors to take flight.

10 April 2019 Headline Data will Hide the Extent of China's Q1 GDP Weakness (Publication Centre)

Official Chinese real GDP growth likely slipped to 6.3% year-over-year in Q1, the lowest on record, from 6.4% in Q4, which matched the trough in the Great Financial Crisis.

16 April 2018 Banxico and BCRP to Keep Rates Cautiously on Hold this Year (Publication Centre)

Last week, the Bank of Mexico unanimously voted to leave the main rate on hold, at 7.50%, its highest level since early 2009.

15 May 2019 The Escalation of Trade Tensions Fans Concerns for LatAm's Upturn (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets did well in Q1, on the back of upbeat investor risk sentiment, low volatility in developed markets and a relatively benign USD.

15 May 2017 Mexican Manufacturing set to Remain Resilient in Q2 and Q3 (Publication Centre)

Recent industrial data for Mexico point to renewed upside risks for GDP growth, despite the likely headwind to consumption from high inflation and depressed confidence.

1 March 2018 Eurozone inflation has bottomed for the year (Publication Centre)

House purchase mortgage approvals by the main street banks jumped to 40.1K in January, from 36.1K in December, fully reversing the 4K fall of the previous two months, according to trade body U.K. Finance.

12 March 2019 What we Learned from AMLO's First 100 Days Can Uncertainty Ease (Publication Centre)

Yesterday marked President AMLO's first 100 days in office, with skyrocketing approval ratings and improving consumer confidence.

01 Mar. 2016 Rising Consumer Debt Puts Pressure on the Bank to Act (Publication Centre)

British households are back to their old ways and are piling on debt again. With borrowing costs still falling, consumer confidence high and banks willing to lend, indebtedness will only increase unless the Bank of England acts.

13 April 2017 Core PPI In ation is set to Rise Further, Lifting Core CPI and PCE (Publication Centre)

Today's producer price report for March likely will show a further increase in core goods inflation, which already has risen to 2.0% in February, from 0.2% in the same month last year. The acceleration in the U.S. PPI follows the even more dramatic surge in China's PPI for manufactured goods, which jumped to 6.6% year-over-year in February, from minus 4.9% a year ago. China's PPI is much more sensitive to commodity prices than the U.S. series, so there's very little chance that core U.S. PPI goods inflation will rise to anything like this rate.

04 Jan. 2016 While We Were Out... (Publication Centre)

...The data were all over the map, with existing home sales plunging while consumer confidence rose; Chicago-area manufacturing activity plunged but national durable goods were flat; real consumption rose at a decent clip but pending home sales dipped again. Markets, by contrast, are little changed from the week before the holidays. What to make of it all?

15 January 2018 Inflation to Undershoot Consensus as it Begins its Downward Trend (Publication Centre)

December's consumer price figures, released on Tuesday, likely will show that CPI inflation fell more than most analysts expect.

12 October. 2016 How Hard Did FOMC Dissenters Push to Hike?  (Publication Centre)

Today's FOMC minutes will add flesh to the bones of the three dissents on September 21. The FOMC statement merely said that each of the three--Loretta Mester, Esther George and Eric Rosengren--preferred to raise rates by a quarter-point.

15 July 2019 Early Resolution to the Debt Ceiling would Raise Growth Forecasts (Publication Centre)

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's five-line letter to House Speaker Pelosi on last Friday--copied to other Congressional leaders--which said that "there is a scenario in which we run out of cash in early September, before Congress reconvenes", introduces a new element of uncertainty to the debt ceiling story.

15 June 2018 A Classic ECB Decision Day A Dovish Tightening of Policy (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, the ECB conformed to expectations yesterday.

15 July 2019 The MPC is Set to Delay for Longer, but Procrastination has a Price (Publication Centre)

We are pushing back our forecast for the next rise in Bank Rate to May 2020, from the tail-end of this year.

12 October 2017 China's Real GDP Growth Should Continue to Trend Down in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Next week is a big one for China. The five yearly Party Congress opens on Wednesday, and on Thursday, the monthly raft of activity data is published, along with Q3 GDP.

12 October 2018 Brazilian Households are in Good Shape, Despite Rising Political Risk (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday support our view that the Brazilian retail sector has gathered strength in recent months, following a weak Q2, when activity was hit by the truckers' strike.

10 Feb. 2016 Surging Inflation in the Andes Poses Policy Dilemmas (Publication Centre)

Colombia's January inflation rate easily exceeded BanRep's 2-to-4% target range yet again, jumping to 7.5% from 6.8% in October, the fastest increase since December 2008. This is putting pressure on BanRep to continue tightening, following 150bp rate hikes, to 6.0%, since September.

18 October 2017 China Won't Solve its Leverage Problem Until Rates Rise (Publication Centre)

Money and credit data released last weekend suggest that China's demand for credit remains insatiable.

20 September. 2016 LatAm's Disinflation is Gathering Speed - Rate Cuts Soon? (Publication Centre)

August inflation surprised to the downside across most of LatAm, as food price surges proved transitory, and the lagged effect of the FX depreciations last year faded. Brazil appeared to be the exception last month, but the underlying trend in inflation is downwards.

20 October 2017 Chinese Q3 Real GDP Growth was Stable but Below the Official Print (Publication Centre)

On the official gauge, China's real GDP growth fell minimally to 6.8% year-on-year in Q3, from 6.9% in Q2. Growth edged down to 1.7% quarter-on-quarter from an upwardly revised 1.8% in Q2.

20 May 2019 What's to Blame for Stubbornly Low Core Inflation in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Friday's CPI data for April provided the final piece of evidence for the significant Easter distortions in this year's data.

23 June 2017 Will French Domestic Demand in Rebound in Q2? (Publication Centre)

The June batch of the French statistical office's business surveys continues to signal a firming cyclical recovery. The aggregate business index rose to cyclical high of 106 in June from a revised 105 in May, continuing an uptrend that began in the middle of 2016.

21 Apr. 2015 Greek IMF default is looming, but it won't necessarily mean Grexit (Publication Centre)

Media reports that Greece and the EU are putting together "contingency plans" for a Greek default--and perhaps even an exit from the Eurozone--highlight how far the parties remain from each other.

21 August 2018 The End of the Beginning for the Greek Public Debt Tragedy (Publication Centre)

Greece's exit from eight years of near constant bail-out programs raises as many questions as it answers.

21 December 2018 The MPC Will Act Quickly When Brexit Uncertainty Fades (Publication Centre)

The minutes of this week's MPC meeting indicate that it won't waste any time to raise interest rates after MPs finally have signed off a Brexit deal.

10 July 2019 Will the MPC Draw a Line in the Sand Under Sterling? (Publication Centre)

The pound can't get a break. Sterling fell to just $1.24 yesterday, its lowest level against the dollar since March 2017, bar the momentary "flash crash" in January.

21 December 2018 Consumption Will Firm in Mexico in Q4, Despite October's Poor Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's report on October private spending in Mexico was downbeat, suggesting that consumption started the fourth quarter on a weak footing.

23 March 2018 Brazil and Colombia to Ease Further, but Chile's Rate Cuts are Over (Publication Centre)

The COPOM meeting was the centre of attention in Brazil this week. The committee cut the main rate by 25 basis points to a new historical low of 6.50%, in line with market expectations.

20 March 2019 Why Japan's February CPI Could Surprise to the Downside (Publication Centre)

The national February inflation data are due this Friday, a couple of weeks after the Tokyo report, as usual.

10 May 2018 Core Inflation set to Rise Again on Base Effects, Gas, food lift headline? (Publication Centre)

The headline April CPI, due today, will be boosted slightly by rising gasoline prices.

20 July 2017 Retail Sales Likely Jumped in June, but the Trend Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

Surveys suggest that today's retail sales figures will show that sales volumes increased by around 1% month-to-month in June, significantly exceeding the consensus, 0.4%. But the pickup in June likely will be just a blip; the further intensification of the squeeze on real wages and a tightening of unsecured lending standards will keep retail sales on a flat path in the second half of 2017.

20 December 2018 Pick a Multiple for EZ Equities Next Year, and Hope for the Best (Publication Centre)

This year has been sobering for Eurozone equity investors.

20 December 2017 Brazil's Fiscal Outlook is Blurred, But Argentina's Has Just Improved (Publication Centre)

Politics will be the key factor in LatAm over the coming quarters, as presidential and legislative elections take place throughout the region.

10 May 2018 A Horrible Q1 for Manufacturers in France, but Q2 Will be Better (Publication Centre)

The French manufacturing sector slowed more than we expected in Q1.

20 July 2018 Japan's Trade Balance Continues to Whipsaw Where is it Going Next (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade surplus has whipsawed recently. Sharp changes are to be expected in January and February, due to the shifting timing of Chinese New Year.

10 June 2019 Don't Expect the MPC to Follow in Other Central Banks' Footsteps (Publication Centre)

Interest rate expectations continued to fall sharply last week.

20 March 2019 High Uncertainty and Sluggish Recovery Means COPOM on Hold (Publication Centre)

Local policy drivers have remained in the spotlight in Brazil, against a background of important recent global events.

20 June 2019 All Eyes on Osaka, if the Trade Talks Succeed, the Fed Won't Ease in July (Publication Centre)

The tone of Fed Chair Powell's opening comments at the press conference yesterday was much more dovish than the statement, which did little more than most analysts expected.

21 January 2019 How Far Will Sterling Jump if a Soft Brexit Becomes Government Policy? (Publication Centre)

Signs that the government is softening its Brexit plans, in response to its substantial defeat in the Commons last week, has enabled sterling to recover most of the ground lost against the dollar and euro in the fourth quarter of last year.

21 July 2017 Don't Bet the Farm on a Major QE Decision in September (Publication Centre)

The ECB pressed the repeat button yesterday. The central bank maintained its refinancing rate at 0.00%, and also kept the deposit and marginal lending facility rate at -0.4% and 0.25 respectively. The pace of QE was held at €60B per month, scheduled to run until the end of December, "or beyond, if necessary."

22 May 2019 The MPC Won't Be "Indifferent" if Sterling Falls Further (Publication Centre)

On a trade-weighted basis, sterling has dropped by only 1.5% since the start of the month, but it is easy to envisage circumstances in which it would fall significantly further.

22 March 2019 A Slightly Dovish but Prudent BCB as the New Boss Takes Over (Publication Centre)

At Wednesday's BCB monetary policy meeting, led for the first time by the new president, Roberto Campos Neto, the COPOM voted unanimously to maintain the Selic rate at 6.50%, the lowest on record.

22 June. 2016 Promising Inflation Picture in Brazil, Better News is Coming (Publication Centre)

Brazil's mid-June inflation reading surprised to the downside, falling to 9.0% from 9.6% in May. The reading essentially confirmed that May's rebound was a pause in the downward trend rather than a resurgence of inflationary pressures. A 1.3% increase in housing prices, including services, was the main driver of mid-June's modest unadjusted 0.4% month-to-month rise in the IPCA-15.

22 June 2018 Business Capex is Still Set for Rapid Growth, Trade Spats Permitting (Publication Centre)

A round of recent conversations with investors suggests to us that markets remain quite skeptical of the idea that the recent upturn in capital spending will be sustained.

22 October 2018 China's Q3 GDP Growth was Much Weaker than the Headline Rates (Publication Centre)

China's real GDP growth officially slowed to 6.5% year-over-year in Q3, from 6.7% in Q2.

23 January 2018 Eurozone Households Enter 2018 With Robust Tailwinds (Publication Centre)

Today's data likely will show that EZ households' sentiment remained close to a record high at the start of the year.

23 January 2017 Chile's Central Bank Cuts Rates, Leaving the Door Open for More (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank cut the country's main interest rate by 25bp to 3.25% last Thursday. The easing was expected, as the board adopted a dovish bias last month, after keeping a neutral stance for most of 2016. Last week's move, coupled with the tone of the communiqué, suggests that further easing is coming, as growth continues to disappoint and inflation pressures are easing.

23 February 2018 Even Q4's Modest GDP Growth Relied on Unsustainable Supports (Publication Centre)

U.K. activity data have consistently surprised to the downside over the last month.

22 September 2017 Angela Merkel will stay as Chancellor, but building a coalition will be tricky (Publication Centre)

Germans head to the polls on Sunday to elect representatives for the national parliament. The media has tried to keep investors on alert for a surprise, but polls indicate clearly that Angela Merkel will continue as Chancellor.

22 June 2018 Asian Data Point to Slowing World Trade Growth this Year (Publication Centre)

Korean trade activity is slowing.

22 June 2018 Copom Likely will Keep Rates on Hold, if the BRL Permits (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank looked through the recent dip in the BRL and left interest rates at 6.50% at Wednesday's Copom meeting, in line with the consensus.

21 May 2019 Japan's Q1 GDP Rose for the Wrong Reasons Tax Hike Still Questionable (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, Japanese GDP came thumping home in Q1, rising 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, after the 0.4% increase in Q4.

23 January 2019 More of the Same From German Bund Yields in 2019 (Publication Centre)

German 10-year yields have been trading according to a simple rule of thumb since 2017, namely, anything around 0.6% has been a buy, and 0.2%, or below, has been a sell.

21 March 2019 EZ Equity Investors Have Bought the Global Central Bank Put (Publication Centre)

The perfect world for equities is one in which earnings and valuations are rising at the same time, but in the Eurozone it seems as if investors have to make do with one or the other.

21 June 2019 Dealing with the "Delay Suits Both" Theories of China Trade (Publication Centre)

We've had pushback from readers over our take on the likelihood of a trade deal with China in the near future.

21 Oct. 2015 Are Payrolls Slowing Because the Pool of Labor Has Evaporated? (Publication Centre)

One of the possible explanations for the slowdown in payroll in growth in recent months is that the pool of labor has shrunk to the point where employers can't find the people they want to hire. That's certainly one interpretation of our first chart, which shows that the NFIB survey's measure of jobs-hard-to-fill has risen to near-record levels even as payroll growth has slowed.

22 Apr. 2016 Good News for the BCB as Brazil's Inflation Slowdown is Confirmed (Publication Centre)

Brazil's mid-April inflation report delivered more evidence that inflation is decelerating; it fell to 9.3% from 10.0% in March, reaching the slowest pace since July 2015. The unadjusted month-to-month increase surprised marginally to the upside, but the key story is of a declining year-over-year trend. Core inflation, which is a lagging indicator of the business cycle, slowed again, in line with the decline in services and market prices inflation.

22 July 2019 Chile's Central Bank on Hold, but the Door is Open for Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank kept rates unchanged last Thursday at 2.50% with a dovish bias, following an unexpected 50bp rate cut at the June meeting.

22 January 2018 External Factors for LatAm are Positive, but Vary Across Countries (Publication Centre)

Recent global developments lead us to intensify our focus on trade in LatAm.

22 February 2019 This Month's PMI Headline: Weak Manufacturing, Strong Services (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's February PMI data sent a clear message to markets.

20 August 2018 EZ Inflation has Peaked for the Year, but Core Rate to Rise Further (Publication Centre)

Friday's final EZ CPI data for July confirm the advance report.

20 April 2018 Why the BoJ Needs to Steepen the JGB Yield Curve (Publication Centre)

The BoJ yesterday published its semi-annual Financial System Report, which often gives insights into the longer-term thinking driving BoJ policy.

11 April 2019 Korea's March Jobs Report will Help the BoK Stave off Calls for Cuts (Publication Centre)

Korea's labour market took an overdue breather in March after an extremely volatile start to the year.

11 December 2018 Lacklustre October GDP is the Final Straw for February Rate Hike Bets (Publication Centre)

The combination of sluggish GDP growth in October and news that the Prime Minister will attempt to renegotiate the terms of the Brexit backstop, most likely pushing back the key vote in parliament until January, has extinguished any lingering chance that the MPC might be in a position to raise Bank Rate at its February meeting.

24 July 2019 Copom to Cut Rates, Thanks to Low Inflation and Progress on Reforms (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday in Brazil helped to lay the ground for interest rate cuts over the coming months.

11 February 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Fell Slightly Below The 2% Target in January (Publication Centre)

Analysts' forecasts for January's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, are unusually dispersed.

24 July 2018 EZ Consumption Accelerated in H1, But Will Slow in H2 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone consumer confidence remained at its low for the year at the start of Q3.

19 March 2018 Don't Extrapolate Soft EZ Inflation Data, the Low for the Year is In (Publication Centre)

Friday's data confirmed that inflation in the Eurozone slipped to a 14-month low of 1.1%, from 1.3% in January, 0.1 percentage points below the first estimate.

24 January 2019 Mr. Draghi Won't Help Already Dovishly-Inclined Markets Today (Publication Centre)

The ECB will deliver a carbon copy of its December meeting today, at least in terms of the main headlines.

11 April 2017 Divergent Inflation Trends in the Andes, Will Policymakers Act Soon? (Publication Centre)

Inflation is falling quickly in Colombia, despite the VAT increase in Q1, so we expect more BanRep rate cuts over the next few months. Consumer prices rose 0.5% month-to-month unadjusted in March, pushing the inflation rate down to 4.7% year-over-year, from 5.2% in February. This is the lowest rate in almost two years, thanks to a favourable base effect and fading pressures from food prices.

19 March 2019 Don't get Used to a Japanese Trade Surplus Just Yet (Publication Centre)

Japan's adjusted trade balance flipped back to a modest surplus of ¥116B in February, after seven straight months of deficit.

19 June 2019 The Fed Will Commit to Ease if "Appropriate" it isn't, Yet (Publication Centre)

The Fed will leave rates unchanged today.

24 June 2019 Capex and Stock Market Fears Explain the Fed's Itchy Trigger-Finger (Publication Centre)

The apparent softness of business capex is worrying the Fed.

11 Jan. 2016 Payroll Growth Will Slow in Q1, But Wages Will Accelerate (Publication Centre)

Payroll growth will slow in the first few months of next year, but wages will accelerate. This might seem counter-intuitive after the ballistic December jobs number coupled with sluggish-looking hourly earnings, but the devil, as always, is in the details. On the face of it, the trend in payroll growth is accelerating at a startling pace, captured in our first chart. But we very much doubt this reflects a real shift in the underlying pace of employment growth, for two reasons. First, payroll growth in recent years has tended to accelerate in the fourth quarter, even when indicators of both labor demand and the pace of layoffs--the two sides of the payroll equation--have been flat, as in Q4.

19 July 2017 CPI Inflation Still is set to Exceed 3% this Year, Despite June's Pullback (Publication Centre)

The fall in CPI inflation to 2.6% in June, from 2.9% in May, greatly undershot expectations for an unchanged rate and it has made a vote by the MPC to keep interest rates at 0.25% in August a near certainty.

24 May 2018 If the BoK Lacks the Stamina to Hike this Week, 2018 Could be Barren (Publication Centre)

Korea's 20-day export growth came in weaker than we anticipated earlier this week. Granted, year-over- year growth rebounded to 14.8% in May, from 8.3% in April.

19 July 2018 EZ June Core Inflation Hit by Weak Services it will Rebound in July (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in the Eurozone have been building in recent months, but we think the headline is close to a peak for the year.

24 May 2017 Soft Inflation Data Puts Pressure on BCB, Despite Brazil's Political Mess (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in Brazil are still easing rapidly. The mid-May unadjusted IPCA- 15 index rose just 0.2% month-to-month, much less than the 0.6% historical average for the month. Base effects pushed the year-over-year rate down to 3.8% from 4.1% in April. Food prices, healthcare and personal costs were the main drivers of the modest month-to-month increase.

24 June. 2016 Markets Wild After Brexit Vote, LatAm Currencies Under Pressure (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s unexpected vote for Brexit means a stronger USD for the foreseeable future, pressure on EM currencies and increasing risk premiums. LatAm fundamentals will a sideshow for some time. The focus will be on the currencies, which will be the main shock absorbers.

24 Mar. 2016 In the March Employment Report, Wages are Wild (Publication Centre)

This is the final Monitor before we head out for our spring break, so we have added a page in order to make room to preview the employment report due next Friday, April 4. We expect a solid but unspectacular 175K increase in payrolls, slowing from February's unsustainable 242K, but still robust.

19 June 2018 The Continuity of Colombia's Free- Market Model is Assured (Publication Centre)

Iván Duque, the conservative candidate for the Democratic Centre Party, won the presidential election held in Colombia on Sunday.

10 July 2017 PBoC and BoJ Choose Divergent Paths in the Second Half (Publication Centre)

The two major central banks of Asia have chosen hugely divergent policies. The BoJ has chosen to fix interest rates, while the PBoC appears set on preventing a meaningful depreciation of the currency.

19 March 2019 The MPC Won't Shift to a Dovish Stance this Week (Publication Centre)

We doubt that this week will see the MPC joining the list of other major central banks that have abandoned plans to raise interest rates this year.

2 July 2018 Eurozone Inflation to Rise Further, Above 2%, Over the Summer? (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone increased slightly last month, and probably will rise a bit more in coming months.

10 October 2018 Underlying Inflation Pressures in Most of LatAm are Under Control (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's CPI report in Mexico confirmed that headline inflation edged higher, to 5.0% in September from 4.9% in August, as the mid-month inflation index suggested.

2 January 2018 BoJ: Chinese Profit Story Deteriorates Amid Surprisingly Robust PMIs (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs paint a picture of robust momentum going into 2018 but we find this difficult to reconcile with the other data.

23 March 2018 The MPC Keeps its Options Open, Instead of Committing to May (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee chose to keep its options open in the minutes of this week's meeting, rather than signal as clearly as it did last year that interest rates will rise very soon.

10 October 2018 Prospects Overstated for a Tidal Wave of Returning Japanese Funds (Publication Centre)

Japan's August balance of payments data, released yesterday, offer the first overview of financial flows since the BoJ "tweaks" at the end of July.

2 September. 2016 German Manufacturing is Doing Well, but Others are Struggling (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final EZ PMIs imply that growth in manufacturing slowed marginally in August. The PMI fell to 51.7, from 52.0 in July, trivially below the initial estimate, 51.8. Output and new orders growth declined, pushing down the pace of new job growth. But we think the hard data for industrial production in Q3 as a whole will be decent.

10 May 2018 Still-Weak Consumption Means the MPC has to Tread Carefully (Publication Centre)

The MPC was relatively bullish on the outlook for households' spending when it signalled its view, in February's Inflation Report, that the case for raising interest rates before the end of this year had strengthened.

2 September. 2016 Temer Says the Worst is Over for Brazil - but Big Challenges Remain (Publication Centre)

Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff was removed from office on Wednesday, following an impeachment trial triggered by allegations that Ms. Rousseff used "creative" accounting techniques to disguise Brazil's growing budget deficit, ahead of her re-election in 2014. The Senate voted 61-20 to convict Ms. Rousseff; only 54 votes were needed to oust her. For Ms. Rousseff's leftist Workers' Party, her removal marks the end of 13 years in power.

10 May 2019 The PBoC will Stick to Loose Policy, Despite a Host of New Challenges (Publication Centre)

China's money and credit numbers for April were a mixed bag. M2 growth merely inched down, to 8.5% year-over-year, from 8.6% in March, keeping its gradual uptrend intact.

23 October 2018 The Eurozone Auto Sector is on Sale Should Investors Bite (Publication Centre)

The automotive sector accounts for 6.1% of total employment, and 4% of GDP, in the Eurozone.

23 May 2019 Did the Main EZ Survey Data Take a Further Tumble in May (Publication Centre)

Today's EZ calendar is a busy one.

23 May 2019 Japanese Trade is Struggling, even Without Tariff Rises (Publication Centre)

Japanese policymakers will have been scouring yesterday's data for signs that the trade situation is improving.

19 October 2018 Soft September Sales Set the Tone for Retail in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Retail sales fell back to earth in September, indicating that the pick-up in spending over the summer largely was a weather-related blip.

19 October 2017 Slower Depletion of Job Market Slack Eases Pressure to Raise Rates (Publication Centre)

The rate that labour market slack is being absorbed has slowed, potentially giving the MPC breathing space to postpone the first rate rise beyond next month.

10 July 2018 Should we be Excited About the Rebound in EZ Investor Sentiment (Publication Centre)

It has been mostly doom and gloom for euro area investors in equities and credit this year.

23 October 2017 Wage Inflation Still Subdued, but a Decisive Turning Point is Coming (Publication Centre)

In the absence of any significant data releases today, we want to take a closer look at the outlook for wage growth, and the implications of an acceleration in hourly earnings for inflation.

19 October 2018 The Bank of Korea Continues to Circle in a Holding Pattern (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday left its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.50%.

2 February 2018 Is it Time to Tell a More Balanced Story on EZ Manufacturing? (Publication Centre)

We struggle to find much wrong with the near-term outlook for Eurozone manufacturing. The headline PMI fell marginally to 59.6 in January, from 60.6 in December, but it continues to signal robust growth at the start of the year.

10 July 2019 Mexican Inflation Falls Back into the Target Range. Rate Cuts in Sight (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures are gradually easing in Mexico, opening the door for rate cuts as early as next month. The June CPI report, released yesterday, showed that prices rose 0.1% month-to-month unadjusted in June, in line with market expectations.

2 October 2017 Japanese CPI Inflation Still led by Food and Energy, for now (Publication Centre)

Japanese CPI inflation jumped to 0.7% in August from 0.4% in July. The ris e in prices over the last year, however, was mainly driven by food and energy.

20 September 2018 The EU Won't be Tariffed, at Least Not This Year (Publication Centre)

Mr. Trump fired the shot everyone was expecting this week with a 10% tariff on $200B-worth of Chinese goods, and a pledge to lift the rate to 25% on January 1.

20 November 2018 The Housing Downturn won't Kill the Rest of the Economy, this is not 2008 (Publication Centre)

The media and markets are waking up to the idea that the housing market has peaked in the face of higher mortgage rates and slightly--so far--tighter lending standards.

14 November 2018 Still Enough Slack to Prevent Wage Growth From Rising Further (Publication Centre)

September's labour market report suggests that wage growth won't continue to rise for much longer.

20 September 2018 August's Jump in CPI Inflation is More Noise than Signal (Publication Centre)

August's consumer price figures caught everyone by surprise. CPI inflation increased to 2.7%, from 2.4% in July, greatly exceeding the consensus and the MPC's forecast, 2.4%.

20 November 2017 PBoC Lets up After Tightening Ahead of Fed Hikes (Publication Centre)

The PBoC has let up on its open-market operations after allowing bond yields to move higher again in October.

14 August 2018 Turkey's Meltdown is no Threat to the U.S. Economy, or Banks (Publication Centre)

Turkey has all the problems you don't want to see in an emerging market when the U.S. is raising interest rates.

14 December 2018 Japan's Trade Deficit will soon Diminish, but not in November (Publication Centre)

Data released earlier this week show that Japan's current account surplus continued its downtrend in October, falling to ¥1,404B, on our seasonal adjustment, from ¥1,494B in September.

13 November 2018 PPI in Japan has Peaked, but the BoJ has Other Concerns in Mind (Publication Centre)

PPI inflation has finally started to soften, after having increased steadily from 2.0% in April, and holding steady at 3.0% in Q3.

20 July 2017 The June Housing Starts Rebound is not the Start of a Boom (Publication Centre)

We would like to be able to argue with conviction that the surge in June housing starts and building permits represents the beginning of a renewed strong upward trend, but we think that's unlikely.

14 Apr. Markets' Long-term Rate View is Plausible - Short-term Call is Not (Publication Centre)

At today's MPC meeting, the centre of gravity of the policy debate is likely to shift towards the merits of raising interest rates, rather than cutting them. CPI inflation rose from 0.3% in February to 0.5% in March, one tenth above the MPC's forecast in February's Inflation Report.

20 March 2019 More Noise than Signal in the Monthly EZ Construction Data (Publication Centre)

Construction in the EZ stumbled at the start of the year.

20 July 2018 Retail Sales Have Not Reached a Turning Point Yet (Publication Centre)

June's 0.5% month-to-month fall in retail sales volumes does little to change the picture of recent strength.

20 July 2017 Today's ECB Meeting Ought to be Snoozer, But Expect Volatility (Publication Centre)

The ECB is unlikely to make any changes to its policy stance today. We think the central bank will keep its refinancing and deposit rates at 0.00% and -0.4%, respectively, and maintain the pace of QE at €60 per month until the end of the year. We also don't expect any substantial change in the language on forward guidance and QE.

13 September 2017 Labour Market Report to Show no Easing of the Real Wage Squeeze (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market report likely will show that employment continued to grow briskly over the summer, but that wage gains still are lagging well behind inflation.

13 September 2017 Hurricane Reconstruction and Clean-up will Lift PPI, but not Yet (Publication Centre)

The surge in gasoline prices triggered by refinery outages after Hurricane Harvey came much too late to push up the August PPI, but gas prices had risen before the storm so the headline PPI will be stronger than the core.

20 January 2017 ECB: Sustained Stimulus is Needed to Safeguard the Economy (Publication Centre)

The ECB conformed to expectations today. The main refi rate was left unchanged at 0.00%, and the deposit and marginal lending facility rates also were unchanged, at -0.4% and 0.25% respectively. Similarly, the ECB stuck with the changes to QE made in December. Purchases of €80B per month will continue until March, after which the pace will be reduced to €60B per month and continue until December.

13 November 2018 CPI Inflation Likely Rose in October, but it Still Has Much Further to Fall (Publication Centre)

We agree with the consensus and the MPC that October's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, will show that CPI inflation edged up to 2.5% in October, from 2.4% in September.

20 November 2017 The Chancellor Will Stick to Plans for an Intensifying Fiscal Squeeze (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Hammond likely will broadly stick to the current plans for the fiscal consolidation to intensify next year when he delivers his second Budget on Thursday.

20 November 2018 Japan's Trade will Come Back into Balance, but not Until the New Year (Publication Centre)

Looking through recent supply disruptions, Japan's adjusted trade balance seems likely to remain in the red until the new year.

20 November 2018 The Eurozone Economy's Global Liquidity Pump is Sputtering (Publication Centre)

The EZ's current account surplus was stung at the end of Q3, falling to a three-year low of €16.9B in September, from a revised €23.9B in August.

14 November 2018 China's Potential H1 Recovery Just Fizzled out... Before it Started (Publication Centre)

Credit to the Chinese authorities for sticking it out with the marginal approach to easing for so long... at least two quarters.

20 June 2017 China Property is Slowing, Prices now Depend on Mortgage Rates (Publication Centre)

House price inflation in tier-one cities has been crushed by China's most recent monetary tightening. This is a sharp turnaround from the overheating mid-way through last year. Unlike in previous cycles, interest rates are probably more important for house prices than broad money growth.

14 March 2017 A Hard Brexit is not Inevitable, Despite the Government's Rhetoric (Publication Centre)

With just days to go until the Government triggers Article 50, the consensus view remains that Britain is heading for a "hard" Brexit, which will leave it without unrestricted access to the single market and outside the customs union. We think this view overlooks how political pressures likely will change over the next two years.

20 May 2019 Real Estate in China is on the Mend, but Don't Count on Another Boomlet (Publication Centre)

China's property market is slowly finding its feet, following a marked and consistent moderation in monthly price gains from mid-2018 to early this year.

20 Jan. 2015 - Wage Gains Will be Slowed by Low CPI Inflation, but Not by Much (Publication Centre)

We have been hearing a good deal recently about the risk that the plunge in headline inflation will feed back into the labor market, keeping the pace of wage gains lower than they would otherwise have been and, therefore, slowing the pace of Fed tightening.

20 December 2018 The Dovish Hike wasn't Dovish Enough for the Stock Market (Publication Centre)

The FOMC did the minimum expected of it yesterday, raising rates by 25bp--with a 20bp increase in IOER--and dropping one of its dots for 2019.

20 December 2016 Fiscal Easing Likely Would Boost Productivity, but not by Enough (Publication Centre)

The two key planks of the argument that a substantial easing of fiscal policy won't be inflationary are that labor participation will be dragged higher, limiting the decline in the unemployment rate, while productivity growth will rebound, so unit labor costs will remain under control.

13 November 2017 Rising R-Star and Higher Inflation in 2018 Spell Trouble for Markets (Publication Centre)

As a general rule, faster productivity growth is always good news.

15 October 2018 The Stock Market Wobble isn't Enough to Deter the Fed (Publication Centre)

A 45bp rise in long-term interest rates--the increase between mid-August and last week's peak--ought to depress stock prices, other things equal.

22 February 2019 The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Japan's Economy from Q4 to Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Japanese activity data were grim.

16 November 2018 When Parliament Votes Down the Withdrawal Deal, What Next? (Publication Centre)

Even if the Prime Minister fends off an emerging leadership challenge--as we write, the rebels still are short of the 48 signatures required to trigger a confidence vote--her chances of getting parliament to back the Withdrawal Agreement in its current form are slim.

16 November 2018 The Boost to Retail Sales from Tax Cuts is Fading, as Holidays Approach (Publication Centre)

The headline retail sales numbers for October looked good, but the details were less comforting.

22 June. 2015 No Grand Deal with Greece, but an Extension Until Year-End is Likely (Publication Centre)

Discussions between Greece and its creditors drifted further into limbo last week, but we are cautiously optimistic that the Euro Summit meeting later today will yield a deal. The acrimony between Syriza and the main EU and IMF negotiators means, though, that a grand bargain is virtually impossible. We think an extension of the current bail-out until year-end is the most likely outcome.

16 November. 2016 Statistical Quirks Will Flatter September's Jobs Report (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market figures likely will show that the Brexit vote has inflicted only minimal damage on job prospects so far. The unemployment rate likely held steady at 4.9% in the three months to September, and the risk of a renewed fall in unemployment appears to be bigger than for a rise.

16 November. 2016 Strong Growth Outside Germany Saved the Day for the EZ In Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's GDP reports confirmed that growth was stable at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the Eurozone, leaving the year-over-year rate unchanged at 1.5%. Rebounding growth outside Germany, which has been a main driver of EZ GDP growth in this cycle, was the key story.

22 May 2017 LatAm Markets Under Renewed Pressure, but Hold on, for Now (Publication Centre)

LatAm's relatively calm market environment has been thrown into disarray over the last few weeks.New fears of a slowdown in China, political turmoil in the U.S. and, most importantly, the serious corruption allegations facing Brazil's President, Michel Temer, have triggered a modest correction in asset markets and have disrupted the region's near-term policy dynamics.

22 Mar. 2016 The Upturn in Core Inflation is Real - Don't Focus on the Noise (Publication Centre)

We pointed out in yesterday's Monitor that Fed Chair Yellen appears to be putting a good deal of faith in the idea that the recent upturn in core inflation is temporary. She argued that "some" of the increase reflects "unusually high readings in categories that tend to be quite volatile without very much significance for inflation over time".

22 Feb. 2016 The Fed is Ahead of the Curve but Behind the Economy (Publication Centre)

Here's something we didn't expect to write: The CPI measure of goods prices, excluding food and energy, rose in the three months to January, compared to the previous three months. OK, the increase was marginal, a mere 0.3%, but conventional wisdom has assumed for some time that the strong dollar would push goods prices down indefinitely.

16 November 2018 Don't Count on Chinese Industry Turning the Corner, Just Yet (Publication Centre)

Industrial production growth in China appears to be stabilising, following the slowdown in Q2.

16 November 2017 Core CPI Mean-Reverts, but Base Effects Mean Sub-2% Until March (Publication Centre)

The average month-to-month increase in the core CPI in the past three months is a solid 0.20, much firmer than the 0.05% average over the previous five months, stretching back to the first of the run of downside surprises, in March.

16 July 2018 Chinese Monetary Policy is Easing, but not for Shadow Banking (Publication Centre)

China's money and credit data released last Friday reaffirm our impression that the tightening has gone too far.

21 Oct. 2015 Eurozone Now Runs a Bigger Current Account Surplus Than Japan and China (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus remains solid, despite hitting a wall in August. The seasonally adjusted current account surplus fell to €17.7B in August from €25.6B in July, due to a €7B fall in the goods component. A 5.2% month-to-month collapse in German exports -- the biggest fall since 2009 -- was the key driver, but we expect a rebound next month. The 12-month trend in the Eurozone's external surplus continues to edge higher, rising to 3% of GDP up from 2.1% in August last year.

16 November 2017 Japanese Domestic Demand Disappoints, but will Rebound (Publication Centre)

Japanese GDP growth in the third quarter corrected the imbalances of the second. Domestic demand took a breather after unsustainable growth in Q2, while net exports rebounded.

22 Dec. 2014 LatAm's Currencies and Economies are Telling Different Stories (Publication Centre)

The sharp drop in commodity prices, especially oil prices, has dampened the growth prospects for most countries in Latin America. But the most damage, so far, is in the currencies, which have dropped sharply.

16 November 2017 The Eurozone's Trade Surplus Won't Stay so High for Long (Publication Centre)

We are sticking to our view that the Eurozone's trade surplus will fall in the next six months, despite yesterday's upbeat report. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus leapt to a record high of €25.0B in September from revised €21.0B in August, lifted by an increase in exports and a decline in imports.

16 November 2017 Retail Sales to Surprise to the Downside Again in October (Publication Centre)

The consensus view that today's retail sales data will show volumes increased by 0.2% month-to-month in October is too sanguine.

16 Oct. 2015 No Signs of Recovery in Brazil's Domestic Demand (Publication Centre)

Brazil's retail sales plunged in August, falling 0.9% month-to-month--the seventh consecutive contraction -- and with a net revision of -0.6%. The broad retail index, which includes vehicles and construction materials, dropped 2.0% month-to-month, the biggest fall this year, due mainly to a 5.2% collapse in auto sales, reversing July's unexpected increase. In annual terms, headline sales fell by an eye-popping 6.9% in August, after the downwardly-revised 3.9% drop in July. In short, the sales data show that consumers are suffering. They will struggle for some time yet.

16 October 2018 No Further Step Up in Wage Growth Likely in August (Publication Centre)

Consensus expectations for August's labour market data, released today, look well grounded.

22 November 2017 LEIs Point to Stabilising Japanese Domestic Demand Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Japan's all-industry activity index fell 0.5% month-on- month in September after a 0.2% rise in August. Construction activity continued to plummet, with the subindex dropping 2.3%, after a 2.2% fall in August.

17 July 2017 ASF Strength Implies Spiralling Financial Risk, not Strong GDP (Publication Centre)

China's money data, out last week, bode ill for real GDP growth in the second half. June M2 growth dipped to 9.4% year-over-year from 9.6% in May and 10.5% in April.

22 November 2017 Core Capital Goods Orders Rising Strongly, Further Gains Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Today brings a wave of data, some brought forward because of Thanksgiving. We are most interested in the durable goods orders report for October, which we expect will show the upward trend in core capital goods orders continues.

22 November 2017 Political Uncertainty is Rising in Mexico. Decisive Weeks Ahead (Publication Centre)

Next July, Mexico will hold presidential elections, an event that will gradually take centre stage as the date approaches. The pre-campaign will start on December 14, but the official campaign opening will take place in late March, when the three main candidates will begin to lay out their platforms.

22 November 2018 Will the EU Impose Sanctions on Italy over its Budget Deficit Plans (Publication Centre)

The EU Commission and Italy's government remain at loggerheads over the country's fiscal plans next year.

22 November. 2016 Sweeteners for the 'JAMs' Will Be Spread Thinly on Wednesday (Publication Centre)

In recent public appearances, the Chancellor has made a concerted effort to downplay expectations of fiscal loosening in Wednesday's Autumn statement. On Sunday, he labelled the deficit "eye-wateringly" large and he warned that he was "highly constrained".

17 Mar. 2015 Will core Inflation respond to an economic upturn in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Final inflation for February in the Eurozone likely will be confirmed today at -0.3% year-over-year, up from -0.6% in January. This bounce was mainly driven by a reduced drag from falling oil and food prices, but it is too early to call a trough in headline inflation.

17 June. 2016 Yet Another Hurdle: Brexit Fears Overshadow a Dovish Fed (Publication Centre)

This week's Fed meeting eased many LatAm investors' minds, fuelling rallies in most of the region's currencies. We think the U.S. labour market is going through a genuine soft patch but will regain momentum over the coming months, prompting policymakers to hike rates in September.

17 Feb. 2015 Falling Goods Prices Do Not Signal Broader U.S. Deflation Risk (Publication Centre)

Last week's import price data, showing prices excluding fuels and food fell in January for the fourth month, support our view that the goods component of the CPI is set to drop sharply this year.

17 December 2018 China's Activity Data for November were Poor... the Worst is yet to Come (Publication Centre)

We had expected the batch of Chinese data released at the end of last week to disappoint.

22 May 2019 Not Out of the Woods, but Korea is Signalling a U-Turn in World Trade (Publication Centre)

The latest trade data from Korea underscore the unfortunate timing of the resumption of the U.S.-China tit-for-tat tariff war.

17 April 2018 China will Loosen the Macropru by Year-end, for now, it's Intense (Publication Centre)

China's March money and credit data, published last Friday, showed that conditions continue to tighten, posing a threat to GDP growth this year.

17 April 2018 Brazil's Economy will Improve in Q2, but it Faces Rising Political Risk (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators and survey data in Brazil still suggest a rebound from the relatively soft GDP growth late last year and in Q1.

17 April 2019 Households are Primed for a Housing Upturn, but not Developers (Publication Centre)

China's property market looks to be turning the corner, going by the stronger-than-expected March report.

22 May 2019 Will the EZ Consumer Save the Day for the Economy in Q2 (Publication Centre)

We still don't have the complete picture of what happened to EZ consumers' spending in Q1, but the initial details suggest that growth acceleretated slightly at the start of the year.

17 August 2018 Noisy Headlines Don't Change the Core Story Growth Still Solid (Publication Centre)

Your correspondent is headed to the beach for the next couple of weeks, with publication resuming on Tuesday, September 4.

22 November 2017 "Spreadsheet Phil" Unlikely to Alter Austerity Formula (Publication Centre)

Public sector borrowing still is on course to greatly undershoot the March Budget forecasts this year, despite October's poor figures.

21 November. 2016 Is Germany Exploiting the Rest of the EZ? (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that the EZ current account surplus fell to €25.3B in September, from a revised €29.2B in August. The trade and services surpluses were unchanged, but the income balance slipped after rising in the previous months.

21 November. 2016 How Vulnerable are the Public Finances to Rising Gilt Yields? (Publication Centre)

Gilt yields have shot up over the last couple of months, despite ongoing bond purchases authorised by the MPC in August. Ten-year yields closed last week at 1.47%, in line with the average in the first half of 2016.

21 June 2017 Home Sales set for new Cycle Highs, but not in May (Publication Centre)

Over the past couple of weeks, the number of applications for new mortgages to finance house purchase have reached their highest level since late 2010, when activity was boosted by the impending expiration of a time-limited tax credit for homebuyers.

15 February 2019 Ignore Germany and Italy for a Bit, and the EZ Q4 GDP Data are Solid (Publication Centre)

The EZ Q4 GDP data narrowly avoided a downward revision in yesterday's second estimate.

15 February 2018 One Outsized Core CPI Gain does not Make a Trend, it Looks Like Noise (Publication Centre)

The January core CPI numbers are consistent with our view that the U.S. faces bigger upside inflation risks than markets and the Fed believe.

15 February 2019 Will the BCB Help to Drive a GDP Rebound After a Noisy 2018 (Publication Centre)

February's COPOM meeting minutes again signalled that Brazil's central bank will stick with its cautious approach to monetary policy.

15 January 2019 The Trade War is not the Only Factor Hurting Stocks, but it's the Biggest (Publication Centre)

In our Monitor of January 10, we argued that the market turmoil in Q4 was largely driven by the U.S.- China trade war, and that a resolution--which we expect by the spring, at the latest--would trigger a substantial easing of financial conditions.

21 June. How Soon Will we Know the Referendum Result? (Publication Centre)

Investors will have to keep their wits about them following the close of polls at 22:00 BST on Thursday. Sterling and other asset prices will move sharply when the likely result of the U.K.'s E.U. referendum is discernible, but exactly when that point will come during the night is uncertain.

15 May. 2015 No Rest For Brazilian Consumers - Even Tougher Times Ahead (Publication Centre)

Consumption has been a serious weak spot in Brazil over the past year. After reaching record growth rates in 2010, it has gradually slowed to its lowest pace in more than ten years.

15 June 2017 Yellen to Markets: Core Inflation is Noisy, the Labor Market is the Key (Publication Centre)

The Fed's action, statement, and forecasts, and Chair Yellen's press conference, made it very clear the Fed is torn between the dovish signals from the recent core inflation data, and the much more hawkish message coming from the rapid decline in the unemployment rate.

15 February 2018 Japanese Consumption Bounced in Q4, but now Faces Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Japanese real GDP growth slowed in Q4, to 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, from an unsustainable 0.6% in Q3. The breakdowns were healthier than the headline suggests, and GDP growth should pick up in Q1.

15 August 2018 Germany Carried the Day for the Eurozone Economy in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second EZ Q2 GDP report was slightly more upbeat than the advance estimate.

21 January 2019 The EZ's Current Account Surplus is now Well Below 3% of GDP (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's current account surplus almost surely fell further in Q4.

21 Jan. 2015 Welcome Gain in ZEW, but Still Not Confirmed by IFO or PMIs (Publication Centre)

Investor sentiment in the Eurozone showed further signs of recovery yesterday. The ZEW expectations index rose strongly to 48.4 in January from 34.9 in December, and the leap since the trough in October ranks among the strongest rebounds ever recorded in the index.

21 February 2018 Labour Data Won't be Hot Enough to Compel the MPC to Hike in May (Publication Centre)

December's labour market report, released today, won't be a game-changer for the near-term outlook for interest rates; January data will be released before the MPC meets in March, and February data will be available at its key meeting in May.

14 November. 2016 Higher EZ Inflation and Bond Yields: Story Changing? (Publication Centre)

Friday's detailed October CPI report in Germany confirmed that inflation pressures are steadily rising. Inflation rose to 0.8% year-over-year in October, from 0.7% in September, lifted mostly by a continuing increase in energy prices.

15 Aug 2019 Germany's Economy is in Trouble, but the EZ as a Whole is Stable (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data showed that growth in the EZ slowed in the second quarter.

15 August 2018 China's Authorities have Enough to Worry About...Tariff hit yet to Come (Publication Centre)

Our view on the trade data last week was that U.S. tariff hikes have caused minimal damage, so far. China's tariff increases on imports to date have resulted in stockpiling, with little evidence in the CPI of any inflationary pressure.

21 July 2017 Venezuela's Economic and Political Crisis Deteriorates, Risks is Soaring (Publication Centre)

The risk of political change in Venezuela is coming to a boil, following President Maduro's plans for a new constituent assembly that has the power to rewrite the constitution and scrap the existing National Assembly.

15 November 2017 Chinese October Activity Data Were Mixed but Will Weaken Over Winter (Publication Centre)

The Chinese activity data published yesterday were a mixed bag, with headline retail sales and production weakening, while FAI growth was stable. We compile our own indices for all three, to crosscheck the official versions.

15 November 2017 Core CPI to Mean-Revert as Rents and Vehicle Prices Rebound? (Publication Centre)

A modest dip in gasoline prices will hold down the October CPI, due today, but investors' attention will be on the core, after five undershoots to consensus in the past six months.

15 October 2018 It's not Fun to Own EZ Equities this Year, but the ECB won't Blink (Publication Centre)

A bad year is threatening to become a catastrophic one for Eurozone equity investors.

15 Oct. 2015 Investment Likely Rebounded in Q3, but No Change in Weak Trend (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report was poor, but the headline was better than we, and the market, feared. Output fell 0.5% month-to-month in August, but the July data were revised up 0.2%, pushing the year over-year rate--using the seasonally- and working day-adjusted index--higher to 1.9% from 1.4% in July. Bloomberg reported the year-over-year rate fell to 0.9% from 1.7% in July, but they used an index which is only working day-adjusted.

15 November. 2016 Inflation Likely Stable in October, but Upward Trend Remains Strong (Publication Centre)

We expect today's consumer price figures to show that CPI inflation remained at 1.0% in October, after jumping in September from 0.6% in August.

2 November. 2016 Brazil Industrial Output Remains Sluggish, but Q4 will be Better (Publication Centre)

Brazil's September industrial production report, released yesterday, confirmed the message from survey data that the sector stabilized towards the end of summer. Output rose 0.5 month-to-month, and August output was revised up by 0.3 percentage points.

21 November 2018 October Retail Sales Cast Doubt on Consumers' Resilience (Publication Centre)

October's retail sales figures, published last Thursday, extended the month-long run of near consistent downside data surprises.

21 November. 2016 The Inflation Threat from Wages is Rising (Publication Centre)

Last week, the Atlanta Fed updated its median hourly earnings series with new October data, showing wage growth accelerating to an eight-year high of 3.9%. That's a full percentage point higher than the increase in this measure of wages in the year to October 2015, and it follows a spring and summer during which wage growth appeared to be topping-out at just under 3½%.

16 February 2018 Retail Sales Likely Started this Year on a Soft Note (Publication Centre)

January's retail sales figures look set to show that growth in consumers' spending remains stuck in low gear.

16 August. 2016 Core CPI Inflation is Set for New Cycle Highs, but Not Just Yet (Publication Centre)

Core CPI inflation plunged in the aftermath of the crash, reaching a low of 0.6% in October 2010. It then rebounded to a peak of 2.3% in the spring of 2012, before subsiding to a range from 1.6-to-1.9%, held down by slow wage gains and the strengthening dollar, until late last year. Faster increases in services prices and rents lifted core inflation to 2.3% in February, matching the 2012 high, but it has since been unchanged, net.

15 November. 2016 Mexico's Benign Industrial Outlook Clouded by the U.S. Policy Agenda (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest industrial production data were worse than we expected. Output rose just 0.1% month-to-month in September, pushing the year- over-year rate down to -1.3%, from a downwardly revised +0.2% in August.

15 November. 2016 EZ GDP Growth Likely was Stable in Q3, in Line With First Estimate (Publication Centre)

Investors face a busy EZ calendar today, but the second estimate of Q3 GDP, and the advance GDP data in Germany, likely will receive most attention. Yesterday's industrial production report in the Eurozone was soft, but it won't force a downward GDP revision, as we had feared.

15 November 2018 CPI Inflation is Set to Undershoot the 2% Target as Soon as Q1 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at 2.4% in October, undershooting the 2.5% consensus expectation and the MPC's forecast in this month's Inflation Report.

15 November 2018 Consumption Seems to have Started Q4 with Surprising Strength (Publication Centre)

Consumption accounts for almost 70% of GDP, and retail sales account for about 45% of consumption.

15 November 2017 Too Soon to Claim Peak Inflation, But it Will Fall Swiftly in 2018 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at 3.0% in October, undershooting our forecast and the consensus by 0.1 percentage point and the MPC's forecast by 0.2pp.

15 November 2018 From #Euroboom to #Eurogloom What Next for the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second estimate of GDP confirmed that Eurozone growth slowed significantly in Q3.

15 November 2018 Japan's Q3 GDP Drops Q4 will be Better but Trends are Deteriorating (Publication Centre)

Japanese leading indicators point to a slowdown, and the trend over this volatile year is emerging as firmly downward.

21 November 2018 A More Data-Dependent Fed is Still not off the Labor Market Hook (Publication Centre)

Expectations for a March rate hike have dipped since Fed Vice-Chair Clarida's CNBC interview last Friday.

21 November 2017 Near-term Risks are to the Downside for Japan's Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Japan's official adjusted surplus rose in October but we think the September figure was an understatement. On our adjustment, the surplus was little unchanged at ¥360B in October.

21 December 2016 Is FDI Now the Main Driver of Eurozone Capital Outflows? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus is on track for a record-breaking year in 2016. Data yesterday showed that the current account surplus rose to €28.4B in October, from €27.7B in September. The trade surplus in goods fell, but this drag was offset by a higher services and income surplus, and a lower current transfers deficit.

19 June 2018 Sales by Buy-to-Let Investors Won't Swamp the Market, For Now (Publication Centre)

The RICS Residential Market Survey caught our eye last week for reporting that new sale instructions to estate agents rose in May for the first month since February 2016.

10 January 2018 Production Likely Rose in November Before Plunging in December (Publication Centre)

The stagnation of industrial production in October ended a run of six consecutive month-to-month increases, the longest spell of unbroken growth since 1994.

10 January 2018 Price-Level Targeting isn't Coming Soon, it's Likely not Coming at all (Publication Centre)

Judging from our inbox, the idea that the Fed might switch to some form of price level targeting, replacing its current 2% inflation target, is the big new idea for 2018.

10 June. 2015 Inflation In Mexico Falls Below the Target - No Rush to Increase Rates (Publication Centre)

Mexico's headline inflation fell to a record low of 2.9% in May, down from 3.1% in April and below the middle of Banxico's inflation target, 2-to-4%, for the first time since May 2005. C ore inflation was unchanged at 2.3% in May; higher services prices were offset by a slowing in the rate of increase of goods prices to 2.4% from 2.7% in April, confirming that the pass-through effect from the MXN's depreciation has been very limited.

10 Mar. 2016 Another Month, Another Round of Monetary Easing from the ECB (Publication Centre)

The stakes are raised ahead of today's ECB meeting after the central bank's pledge in January to "review and reassess" its policy stance. Since then, survey data have weakened, inflation has fallen and volatility in financial markets has increased. The ECB likely will act accordingly and deliver a boost to monetary stimulus today.

17 November. 2016 October Retail Sales Likely Spurred by a Weather-related Tailwind (Publication Centre)

The consensus for a modest 0.5% month-to- month rise in retail sales volumes in October looks too timid; we expect today's data to show a 1% increase.

10 Mar. 2016 Calendar Distortions Plague the Hours Data, Not Just Wages (Publication Centre)

We've had some correspondence questioning our view on the "weakness" of February hourly earnings, which we firmly believe were depressed by a persistent calendar quirk. Almost nine times in 10 over the past decade, when the 15th of the month has fallen after the week of the 12th--the payroll survey week--the monthly gain in wages has undershot the prior trend.

10 Feb. 2016 Yellen to Sound Cautious Today, but Can't Ignore the Labor Market (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen today needs to strike a balance between addressing investors' concerns over the state of the stock market and the risks posed by slower growth in Asia, and the tightening domestic labor market.

10 Feb. 2016 No Relief for German Q4 GDP Forecasts in Yesterday's Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German manufacturing and trade data did little to allay our fears over downside risks to this week's Q4 GDP data. At -1.2% month-to-month in December, industrial production was much weaker than the consensus forecast of a 0.5% increase. Exports also surprised to the downside, falling 1.6% month-to-month. Our GDP model, updated with these data, shows GDP growth fell 0.2%-to-0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, reversing the 0.3% increase in Q3.

17 November 2017 Respite for Consumers from Price Rises will be Short-Lived (Publication Centre)

October's retail sales figures confirm that consumers have adopted a more cautious mindset since the summer, when retail sales increased at a faster rate than incomes.

1 November 2018 Does the MPC Need to Talk Up Rate Hike Expectations Today (Publication Centre)

The MPC's new inflation forecasts usually take centre stage on "Super Thursday" and provide a numerical indication of how close the Committee is to raising interest rates again.

1 November 2018 Productivity Growth is Rising the Fed's r-star Will Have to Climb too (Publication Centre)

On the heels of yesterday's benign Q3 employment costs data--wages rebounded but benefit costs slowed, and a 2.9% year-over-year rate is unthreatening--today brings the first estimates of productivity growth and unit labor costs.

17 November. 2016 Inflation Risks Building, Despite Soft PPI (Publication Centre)

Higher gasoline prices will lift today's headline October CPI, which should rise by 0.3%. Unfavorable rounding could easily push it to 0.4%, though, and year-over-year headline inflation should rise to 1.6% or 1.7%, from 1.5% in September and just 0.2% a year ago.

10 August 2017 Core PPI Inflation is Still Trending Upwards, Don't Ignore it (Publication Centre)

The first of this week's two July inflation reports, the PPI, will be released today. With energy prices dipping slightly between the June and July survey dates, the headline should undercut the 0.2% increase we expect for the core by a tenth or so.

1 October 2018 Italy's 2019 Budget Plans are Not as Bad as the Market Thinks (Publication Centre)

Bond investors in Italy voted with their feet on Friday with news that the government has agreed a 2019 budget deficit of 2.4%.

17 October 2018 China's Rising CPI Inflation is no Obstacle to Easier Policy (Publication Centre)

Chinese prices largely moved in line with our expectations in September, according to yesterday's data.

10 Nov. 2015 Focus on Older Workers in Jobs Report Misses the Bigger Picture (Publication Centre)

Investors and market observers of a relatively bearish persuasion argued over the weekend that the details of the October employment report were less encouraging than the headline, principally because the household survey showed that all the job growth, net, was among older workers, defined as people aged 55-plus. This, they argue, suggests that most of the increased demand for labor was concentrated in low-paid service sector jobs, where older workers are concentrated, perhaps reflecting retail hiring ahead of the holidays. Such a wave of hiring is unlikely to be repeated over the next few months, so payroll growth won't be sustained at its October pace.

18 June 2019 Colombia's Economy Remains Resilient but External Risks are Drag (Publication Centre)

Colombia has been one of LatAm's outperformers this year.

18 Feb. 2016 Has the Chancellor's Room for Manoeuvre Disappeared? (Publication Centre)

The stubbornly slow rate of decline of public borrowing casts doubt on whether the Chancellor will run a budget surplus before the end of this parliament, as his fiscal rule stipulates. But downward revisions to debt interest forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility are likely to absolve him again from intensifying the impending fiscal squeeze in the Budget on March 16.

11 April 2018 Brazil's Inflation Fell Rapidly in March, Chile's Economy Rebounding (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday reinforced our forecast of a further rate cut in Brazil next month.

11 August 2017 Core CPI Looks Set to Revert to 0.2% in July, but Nothing is Certain (Publication Centre)

Our base case forecast for today's July core CPI is that the remarkable and unexpected run of weak numbers, shown in our first chart, is set to come to an end, with a reversion to the prior 0.2% trend.

11 Dec. 2014 - How Far Did Falling Gas Prices Depress November Retail Sales? (Publication Centre)

Demand for new mortgages to finance house purchase has rebounded somewhat in recent weeks, following an alarming dip in the wak e of October's stock market correction. At the low, in the third week in October, the MBA's index of applications volume was at its lowest since mid-February, when the reported numbers are substantially depressed by a long-standing seasonal adjustment problem.

18 Nov. 2015 Weak Producer Price Inflation Won't Prevent CPI Rebound (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at -0.1% in October, matching its lowest rate since March 1960. We had expected the rate to tick down to -0.2%, but the rebound in clothing inflation in October, following a period of discounting in September, was larger than we had anticipated. Looking ahead, we can be fairly confident that CPI inflation will pic k up sharply over the coming months.

18 Feb. 2015 Economic Activity Likely to Improve in Peru this Year, Gradually (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank, BCRP, left rates unchanged last week, at 3.25%, a four-year low. Above-target inflation and currency volatility prevented the Board from cutting rates.

10 October 2018 Hurricane Michael Means Another "Soft" Payroll Number (Publication Centre)

Our hopes of a hefty rebound in pa