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11 May. Will March Industrial Production Break the Run of Bad News? (My Publications)

The popular belief that economists rarely agree about anything is reinforced by the extremely wide dispersion of forecasts for March industrial production. The forecasts range from the wildly optimistic prediction of a 1.9% month-to-month rise, to a downright miserable 0.3% decline. We think production rose by about 0.5% month-to-month, and this likely will be interpreted as a decent result, following the recent run of bad news.

22 Dec. 2015 Miserable Economic And Political News Keeps Coming For Brazil (My Publications)

Brazil's recent political and economics news has shifted the near-term outlook from bad to worse. President Rousseff on Friday replaced hawkish Finance Minister Joaquim Levy, appointed just over a year ago, with a close partner, Planning Minister Nelson Barbosa. Mr. Levy resigned after continued conflicts with the government, including frustration by the Congress of his attempts to rein in the fiscal mess. Mr. Barbosa is known to be less market friendly, and will likely defend countercyclical measures, delaying any rapid fiscal consolidation. The appointment will deteriorate investors' confidence even further, placing the markets under enormous strain.

CBS NEWS - Will Syriza win rock the global economy? (News and Media)

Claus Vistesen on the Greek election results impact on the Eurozone

CBS NEWS - European Central Bank unveils major stimulus program (News and Media)

European Central Bank unveils major stimulus program...

CHANNEL NEWS ASIA - US weekly jobless claims fall 14% (News and Media)

Initial jobless claims, a sign of the pace of layoffs, dropped to a seasonally-adjusted 265,000 in the week ending Jan 24, a hefty decline of 43,000 from the prior week's slightly upwardly revised level of 308,000

ABC NEWS - US Job Openings Jump to 14-Year High, Sign of Strong Hiring (News and Media)

The rapid hiring that made 2014 a stellar year for job gains is showing no sign of slowing down.

BBC NEWS - Government borrowing falls in first half of year (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Government borrowing

BBC NEWS - UK new car sales rise in September (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. New Car Sales

BBC NEWS - UK construction sector slows down in January (News and Media)

Chief U.K.. economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. Construction

BBC NEWS - Warm weather lifts retail sales in July (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in July

ABC NEWS - Trump administration reveals plans for massive tax cuts (News and Media)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson speaking about Donald Trump's plans for sweeping tax cuts

SKY NEWS - Weakening tax receipts hurt public finances in September (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Public Finances

CBS NEWS - Is Greece headed for eurozone exit? (News and Media)

Claus Vistesen comments on the aftermath of the Greek referendum

NEWS.MARKETS - Sterling markets accused of inflation complacency (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

CBS NEWS - U.S. economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter (News and Media)

Chief U.S. economist Ian Shepherdson comments on U.S Q4 GDP

NEWS.MARKETS - Brexit? Bremain? How soon will markets know? (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Referendum

22 June. 2016 Promising Inflation Picture in Brazil, Better News is Coming (My Publications)

Brazil's mid-June inflation reading surprised to the downside, falling to 9.0% from 9.6% in May. The reading essentially confirmed that May's rebound was a pause in the downward trend rather than a resurgence of inflationary pressures. A 1.3% increase in housing prices, including services, was the main driver of mid-June's modest unadjusted 0.4% month-to-month rise in the IPCA-15.

24 August. 2016 "Breaking News": EZ PMIs Signal Unchanged GDP Growth in Q3 (My Publications)

Yesterday's advance EZ PMI data were virtually unchanged from previous months, yet again. The composite PMI rose trivially to 53.3 in August from 53.2 in July; this means that the index has been almost stable since February. The headline was lifted by a small increase in services, which offset a slight decline in manufacturing.

22 Apr. 2016 Good News for the BCB as Brazil's Inflation Slowdown is Confirmed (My Publications)

Brazil's mid-April inflation report delivered more evidence that inflation is decelerating; it fell to 9.3% from 10.0% in March, reaching the slowest pace since July 2015. The unadjusted month-to-month increase surprised marginally to the upside, but the key story is of a declining year-over-year trend. Core inflation, which is a lagging indicator of the business cycle, slowed again, in line with the decline in services and market prices inflation.

14 February 2017 Global Manufacturing Picks Up Pace, Are Good News for LatAm? (My Publications)

More evidence indicating that the recovery in global industrial activity is underway and gaining momentum- has poured in. In particular, trade data from China, one of LatAm's biggest trading partners, was stronger than the market expected last month. Both commodity import and export volumes increased sharply in January, and this suggests better economic conditions for China's key trading partners.

12 August. 2015 Industrial Production in Mexico is Stabilizing, Better News Ahead? (My Publications)

Mexico's latest industrial production figures, released yesterday, showed that growth is stabilizing, but it likely will not accelerate any time soon. June output rose 1.4% year-over-year, rebounding from the 1.0% contraction in May, and matching April's gain. The increase in output was relatively broad-based, with solid gains in mining and utilities.

24 July. 2015 More Bad News From Brazil, But Mexico Strength Remains Good (My Publications)

Brazil's inflation data continue to disappoint, but they are showing some signs of improvement, at the margin. The mid-month CPI, the IPCA-15 index, jumped to 9.3% year-over-year in July, up from 8.8% in June, soaring well above the upper bound of the inflation target and reaching the highest level since December 2003, as shown in our first chart.

18 May. 2016 Colombia's Domestic Demand Fell in Q1 - Better News Ahead? (My Publications)

Activity in Colombia cooled at the end of the first quarter, in the face of many domestic and external headwinds. Retail sales, for example, plunged 2.9% in March after a 4.6% leap in February. The headline likely was depressed by the early Easter, as March had one fewer trading day than February.

27 February 2017 Banxico Faces Real Pressures, but bad News is Priced-In to the MXN (My Publications)

Mexico's policymakers are battling two opposing forces. First, inflation pressures are rising, on the back of the one-time increase in petrol prices and the lagged effect of the MXN's sell-off in Q4. These factors are pushing short-term inflation expectations higher, even though the MXN has remained relatively stable since President Trump took office and has risen by about 6% against the USD year-to-date.

7 June 2017 The Slowing in Consumer Credit Demand is Good News (My Publications)

Today's consumer credit report for April likely will show that the stock of debt rose by about $15B, a bit below the recent trend. The monthly numbers are volatile, but the underlying trend rate of increase has eased over the past year-and-a-half, as our first chart shows. The slowdown has been concentrated in the non-revolving component, though the rate of growth of the stock of revolving credit--mostly credit cards--has dipped recently, perhaps because of weather effects and the late Easter.

1 July. 2016 Manufacturing Activity Has Levelled-Off - Better News Ahead (My Publications)

The manufacturing sector is much more exposed to external forces--the dollar, and global growth--than the rest of the economy. But much of the slowdown in the sector over the past year-and-a-half, we think, can be traced back to the impact of plunging oil prices on capital spending in the sector.

4 Nov. 2015 ADP Tells Us Payrolls Mean- Revert, but That's Not News (My Publications)

The underlying trend in payroll growth ought to be running at 250K-plus, based on an array of indicators of the pace of both hiring and firing. The past few months' numbers have fallen far short of this pace, though, for reasons which are not yet clear. We are inclined to blame a shortage of suitably qualified staff, not least because that appears to be the message from the NFIB survey, which shows that the proportion of small businesses with unfilled positions is now close to the highs seen in previous cycles. If we're right, payroll growth won't return to the 254K average recorded in 2014 until the next cyclical upturn, but quite what to expect instead is anyone's guess.

3 June. 2015 Brazil's Industrial meltdown continues - Better news elsewhere (My Publications)

Brazil industrial production continues to edge lower, falling 1.2% month-to-month in April, a 7.6% year-over-year drop. In March, output was down only 3.4% year-over-year, but the data are volatile in the short-term. The trend is about -7%, down from -3.8% in the second half of last year.

27 Apr. 2016 Breaking News: Bund Yields are Going Up, and Could Rise Further (My Publications)

On the face of it, the 25 basis points increase in 10-year German yields this month is modest. But the sell-off has reminded levered investors that trading benchmark securities in the Eurozone is not a one-way street. When yields are close to zero, investors also use leverage to enhance returns, and this increases volatility when the market turns.

29 November. 2016 Colombia's Economy Slowed Sharply in Q3, Better News Ahead? (My Publications)

Friday's Q3 GDP report for Colombia confirmed the message from hard data and surveys, showing that the economy slowed sharply. Real GDP growth dropped to 1.2% year-over-year, its slowest pace since early 2009, from 2.0% in Q2.

25 September 2017 Argentina's Economy is Improving, Good News for Macri and Markets (My Publications)

Argentina's economy continues to recover steadily.

24 August. 2015 Better Economic News Fails to Lift LatAm Sentiment - Fx Still Trashed (My Publications)

Mexico's economy continues to withstand several headwinds, especially the sharp currency depreciation--shown in our first chart--falling commodity prices, and the tough external environment. The country is still one of the economic bright spots in the region, thanks to its resilient domestic demand. June retail sales rose 5.4% year-over-year, well above expectations, and up from 4.1% in May. The underlying trend is positive, averaging 4.8% in the second quarter, well above its 2014 pace.

19 September 2016 Construction Investment Will Boost EZ GDP Growth in Q3 (My Publications)

Construction data in the Eurozone usually don't attract much attention, but today's July report will provide encouraging news, compared with recent poor manufacturing data. We think construction output leapt 2.1% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 2.3%, from 0.7% in June. This strong start to the third quarter was due mainly to a jump in non-residential building activity in France and Germany.

2 Oct. 2015 Expect Decent September Payrolls, But Sluggish Wage Gains (My Publications)

Whatever you think is the underlying tr end in payroll growth, you probably should expect a modest undershoot in today's report, thanks to the persistent tendency for the first estimate of September payrolls to undershoot and then be revised higher. The good news is that the initial September error tends not to be as big as in August--the median revision from the first estimate to the third over the past six years has been 49K, compared to 66K--and it has declined recently. Over the past three years, September revisions have ranged from only 18K to 27K. Still, we can't ignore six straight years of initial undershoots.

19 April 2017 Markets Overlook the Downside Risks from June's Snap Election (My Publications)

Prime Minister Theresa May's announcement that Parliament will vote today on holding a general election on June 8 shocked markets and even her own party's MPs. Betting markets were pricing in only a 20% chance of a 2017 election before yesterday's news.

19 April 2017 Another Political Hand Grenade is Thrown in European Politics (My Publications)

Economic news in Europe continues to take a back-seat to volatility in politics. Yesterday's announcement by U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May that she is seeking a snap general election on June 8th cast further doubt over what exactly Brexit will look like.

18 Jan. 2016 Is it Time to Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater? (My Publications)

Investors have endured a severe test of their resolve in the last few months. Global equity markets have sunk more than 10%, eclipsing the previous low in September, and credit spreads have widened. The bears have predictably pounced and, as if the torrid price action hasn't been enough, media headlines have been littered with advice to "sell everything" and warnings of a 75% fall in U.S. and global equities. When "price is news" we recognise that views from well-meaning economists--often using lagging and revised economic data to describe the world--are of little value.

20 Apr. Wage Growth is Picking Up, Pressuring the MPC to Act (My Publications)

Today's labour market figures likely will show that wage growth is bouncing back from a soft patch in late 2015. As a result, the MPC won't be able to sit on its hands much longer, especially in light of the continued dire news on productivity.

20 Jan. 2016 Venezuela Is Collapsing - LatAm's Star--Colombia--Is Merely Slowing (My Publications)

Commodity prices have started the year under further downward pressure. This is yet more negative news for LatAm, as most of the countries have failed to diversify, instead relying on oil or copper for a large share of exports and, critically, tax revenue. Venezuela is the biggest loser in the region from the oil hit, and, together with the worsening political and economic crisis, it has pushed the country even closer to the verge of collapse, threatening its debt payments. Venezuela's central bank last week released economic data for the first time since 2014, showing that inflation spiralled to 141% and that the economy shrank 4.5% in the first nine months of last year.

22 May 2017 The Housing Market is Weakening, but Lasting Price Falls aren't Likely (My Publications)

Even the most bullish estate agent in Britain would struggle to put a positive spin on the latest housing market news. The latest levels of the official, Nationwide, and Halifax measures of house prices all are below their peaks.

23 June 2017 Brazil and Argentina Under Renewed But Temporary Pressure (My Publications)

Financial markets in Brazil and Argentina have been under pressure this week, following negative news, both domestic and external. In Brazil, the Ibovespa index tumbled nearly 1.8% on Tuesday after a Senate Committee rejected the Government's labour reform bill.

22 August. 2016 Acceleration in German GDP Growth Likely Won't be Sustained (My Publications)

While we were out, the key economic news in the Eurozone was mostly positive. The main upside surprise came from the advance Q2 German GDP report, which showed that real GDP rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, slowing from the 0.7% jump in the first quarter.

20 Nov. 2015 Will the OBR's New Forecasts Make the Chancellor Cut Deeper? (My Publications)

The Chancellor must feel a sense of foreboding before his pre-Autumn Statement meetings with the Office for Budget Responsibility. Even minor revisions to the independent body's economic forecasts could shred into tatters his plans for a budget surplus by the end of the parliament, given the lack of wiggle room in the July Budget borrowing projections. The OBR won't present the Chancellor with disastrous news ahead of next Wednesday's Autumn Statement, but the already slim margin for error he has in meeting his surplus goal likely will be reduced.

20 January 2017 Mid-month Inflation Data Supports BCB's Front-loading Strategy (My Publications)

Brazilian inflation is off to a good start this year, and we think more good news is coming. The January mid-month IPCA-15 index rose an unadjusted 0.3% month-to-month, a tenth less than expected. This was the smallest gain for January since 1994 and the sixth consecutive month in which the number came in below expectations.

17 March 2017 Weak Wage Numbers will Continue to Stymie the MPC's Hawks (My Publications)

The minutes of March's MPC meeting were more newsworthy than we--and the markets--expected. Kristin Forbes broke ranks and voted to raise Bank Rate to 0.50%, from 0.25%.

17 June. 2015 FOMC to Acknowledge Rebound, but Rate Dots Likely Unchanged (My Publications)

The tone of today's FOMC statement likely will be different to the gloomy April missive, which began with a list of bad news: "...economic growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory factors. The pace of job gains moderated... underutilization of labor resources was little changed. Growth in household spending declined... Business fixed investment softened, the recovery in the housing sector remained slow, and exports declined."

10 November. 2016 A Trump Victory Means Revisions to EU Leaders' Playbooks (My Publications)

EZ equity futures predictably fell out of bed as the news of the Trump victory gradually became clear overnight yesterday. The reaction was less violent than after the U.K. Brexit referendum, though, and Mr. Trump's balanced victory speech appears to have calmed nerves for now.

12 June 2017 Brazil's Inflation is in Check, but Politics are Paramount (My Publications)

Brazilian political risk remains high but, as we have argued in previous Monitors, it is unlikely to deter policymakers from further near-term monetary easing. The political crisis, however, does suggest that the COPOM will act cautiously, waiting until the latest storm passes before acting more aggressively, despite ongoing good news on the inflation front.

10 June. April's 'Surge' in Exports Does Not Point to a Brexit Silver Lining (My Publications)

News yesterday that exports surged to a record high in April was leapt on as "evidence" that sterling's Brexit-related weakness already is having positive side-effects and that therefore the economy would be relatively unscathed by a Brexit. However appealing this explanation may sound, it is nonsense.

07 Mar. 2016 Brazil's Economy Collapsed in 2015 - No Sign of Quick Recovery (My Publications)

Brazil's economic news remained grim at the headline level last week, but some of the details were less bad than in recent months. Industrial production fell by 13.8% year-over-year in January, down from the 12.1% drop in December and the worst performance on this basis since mid-2009.

05 Jan. 2016 Credit Flows Aren't Strengthening Enough to Prevent a Slowdown (My Publications)

November's money and credit figures brought welcome news that the recovery in bank lending is strengthening. This revival should continue, now that banks have completed most of the work required to improve their capital positions. But we doubt lending will recover quickly enough to prevent the economic recovery slowing in 2016, as the downward pressure on growth from the fiscal squeeze and the strong pound builds.

03 October. 2016 Deutsche's Woes Persist but it's not a European Lehman Moment (My Publications)

The European financial sector was in the news again on Friday, propelled by further weakness in Deutsche Bank's share price. In our Monitor of September 27, we said that worries of a European "Lehman Moment" were overblown.

03 Feb. 2016 Industrial Output Dived in Q4, But Reasons For Optimism in Brazil? (My Publications)

Brazil's economic news this week remained bleak at the headline level, but some of the details were less terrible in than in recent months. Industrial production fell by a worse-than-expected 11.9% year-over-year in December, marginally up from the 12.4% drop in November.

16 May 2017 Eurozone Reforms Likely are Coming, but Patience is Needed (My Publications)

Mr. Macron will be in Berlin today with the message that France wants a strong Eurozone and a tight relationship with Germany. Friendly overtures between Paris and Berlin are good news for investors; they reduce political uncertainty while increasing the chance that the economic recovery will continue. But it is too early to get excited about closer fiscal coordination, let alone a common EZ fiscal policy and bond issuance.

24 April 2017 Past Errors Mean Investors Should Treat the Latest Polls Cautiously (My Publications)

Sterling jumped last week to its highest level against the dollar since last October in response to news that a general election will be held on June 8. Markets are betting that the Conservative Government will sharply increase its majority, enabling Theresa May to ignore Eurosceptic backbenchers when she strikes a deal with the EU.

15 September 2016 A Critical 12 Months Ahead for the EU (My Publications)

Yesterday's State of the Union address by EC president Jean-Claude Juncker commanded more attention than usual, but contained little news on the key talking points for investors.

13 September. 2016 Will the NFIB Survey Point to Stronger Non-mining Capex? (My Publications)

The key labor market numbers from today's August NFIB survey of small businesses have already been released--they appear a day or two before the employment report--but they will be reported as though they are news. The headline hiring intentions reading dipped to nine from 12, leaving it near the bottom of the range of the past couple of years.

12 Oct. 2015 French Manufacturing Output Likely Fell in Q3 - Q4 will b e Better (My Publications)

French industrial production data offered a bit of relief last week following a string of woeful German data, and news of monthly falls in Italian and Spanish manufacturing output. Industrial production jumped 1.6% month-to-month in August, but the headline was flattered by a 0.3% downward revision of the July data. The monthly jump pushed the year-over-year rate higher to 1.6%, from a revised 0.9% fall in July. All sectors performed strongly in August, but the key story was a hefty increase in transport equipment manufacturing, due to a 11.9% surge in vehicle production.

23 Mar. 2015 Brazil's Inflation Target is Wishful Thinking for 2015 - Maybe in 2016 (My Publications)

The bad news just keeps coming for Brazil's economy. The mid-month CPI, the IPCA-15 index, rose 1.2% month-to-month in March. Soaring energy prices remain the key contributor to the inflation story in Brazil, pushing up the housing component by 2.8% in March, after a 2.2% increase in February.

2 May 2017 Can Sterling's Recovery Gather More Momentum? (My Publications)

Sterling continued to recover last week, hitting its highest level against the dollar since October, despite a series of data releases indicating that the economy is losing momentum. Indeed, sterling was unscathed by the news on Friday that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth slowed to just 0.3% in Q1, from 0.7% in Q4.

25 July. 2016 Should We Believe the Downbeat PMI? (My Publications)

Last week's news that the composite PMI collapsed to 47.7 in July--its lowest level since April 2009--from 52.4 in June is the first clear indication that the U.K. is heading for a recession.

28 Apr. 2015 Too Far, Too Fast For Eurozone Equity Markets since October? (My Publications)

QE and a gradually strengthening economy will remain positive catalysts for equities in the euro area this year. But with the MSCI EU ex -UK up almost 24% in the first quarter, the best quarterly performance since Q4 1999, the question is whether the good news has already been priced in.

25 Jan. 2016 Last Week's Data Reinforce Brazil's Doves - Rates are Now on Hold (My Publications)

The bad news on economic activity keeps coming for Brazil. The formal payroll employment report-- CAGED--for December was very weak, with 120K net jobs eliminated, compared to a 40K net destruction in December 2014, according to our seasonal adjustment. The severe downturn has translated into huge job losses. The economy eliminated 1.5 million jobs last year, compared to 152K gains in 2014. Last year's job destruction was the worst since the data series started in 1992. The payroll losses have been broad-based, but manufacturing has been hit very hard, with 606K jobs eliminated, followed by civil construction and services. Since the end of 2014, the crisis has hit one sector after another.

25 Feb. 2015 Yellen Bullish on Growth and Jobs - "Patient" Set to Go in March? (My Publications)

Chair Yellen's Testimony sought clearly to tell markets that the Fed has upgraded its view on growth, and the state of the labor market. After reading the first few paragraphs, which focussed clearly on the good news, though peppered with the usual caveats, the door was open for the section on policy to signal unambiguously that the Fed is close to its first tightening.

3 May 2017 April's Higher Manufacturing PMI Won't Be Sustained (My Publications)

The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI shot up to a three-year high of 57.3 in April, from 54.2 in March, bringing an end to the run of downbeat news on the economy. The performance of the U.K. manufacturing sector, however, remains underwhelming, given the magnitude of sterling's depreciation.

26 Apr. 2016 Aircraft Will Lift March Durables, but Early Easter Will Depress Core (My Publications)

The good news in today's March durable goods report is that a rebound in orders for Boeing aircraft means February's 3.0% drop in headline orders won't be repeated. The company reported orders for 69 aircraft in March, compared to just one in February.

26 Feb. 2016 The Foundations of the U.K. Recovery are Remarkably Fragile (My Publications)

The preliminary estimate of a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 was left unrevised, but that was the only nugge t of good news from yesterday's second GDP release. The expenditure breakdown hardly could have looked more troubling.

27 Jan. 2016 Will Mexico's Household Spending Remain the Bright Spot in 2016? (My Publications)

Mexico's economy continues to bring good news, despite the tough external environment for all EM economies. According to the economic activity index, a monthly proxy for GDP, growth gained further momentum in Q4. Activity rose 2.7% year-over-year in November, supported by stronger services activities, which expanded 0.3% month-to-month. The services sector has been the main driver of the current cycle, growing 3.8% year-over-year in November, bolstering our optimism about the domestic economy in the near-term.

27 Apr. 2016 Services Driving Mexico's Growth, Despite Many Obstacles (My Publications)

Mexico's National Institute of Statistics--INEGI-- will release preliminary GDP data for Q1 on Friday. We are expecting good news, despite the tough external and domestic environment. According to the economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP-- growth gained further momentum in Q1, based on data up to February.

27 July 2017 Greece is Back in the Market, but the Timing is Not the Best (My Publications)

The strengthening EZ economy increasingly looks like the tide that lifts all boats. The Greek economy is still a laggard, but recent news hints at a brightening outlook. Last week, S&P affirmed the country's debt rating, but revised the outlook to "positive" from "stable."

27 May. 2015 Seasonal Biases Set to Lead to GDP Growth Restatement (My Publications)

The news that the seasonal adjustments in the GDP numbers are even less reliable than previously thought means the Fed likely will put even greater emphasis on the labor market when pondering when to begin raising rates. A cost-push view of the inflation process necessarily centers on the labor data, but every FOMC statement begins with an assessment of the overall pace of growth.

23 Oct. 2015 BCB Stuck Between Inflation Risks and Deep, Long Recession (My Publications)

Brazil economic and political outlook is still opaque, but grim, after a vast array of negative news. Impeachment of President Rousseff remains a possibility; the process of fiscal consolidation is messy and politically bloody; rumors that Finance Minister Levy might leave his post next year have intensified; and the latest data showed that the recession worsened in Q3. As a consequence, the BRL and interest rates have been under pressure and we see no clear signs that the turmoil will ease soon.

31 October. 2016 Mexico and Brazil Are Stabilizing at Different Speeds, For Now (My Publications)

While we were out, the economic news in LatAm was mostly positive. The main upside surprise came from Mexico, with the IGAE activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--rising 2.9% year-over-year in August, up from 1.2% in July, and an average of 2.4% in Q2. A modest rebound was anticipated, but the headline was much better than we and the markets expected.

30 September. 2016 August Spending is Less Worrying than the Scope for Higher In ation (My Publications)

Yesterday's relatively good news--we discuss the implications of the August trade data below--will be followed by rather more mixed reports today. We hope to see a partial rebound, at least, in the September Chicago PMI, but we fully expect soft August consumer spending data.

24 October. 2016 The Eurozone needs better PR (My Publications)

The EZ doom-and-gloom crew has come crawling out of the woodwork again this year. Earlier this month, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz told a German newspaper that Italy and other euro area countries likely will leave the currency union soon.

5 December 2016 Mexico's PMIs Fell in November, Q4 GDP Outlook is Poor (My Publications)

The MXN came under pressure last week as news broke that Banxico Governor Agustin Carstens plans to resign next year. Mr. Carstens has led the bank since 2010; during his term, Banxico cut interest rates to record low levels and managed to keep inflation under control.

8 Dec. 2015 Small Firms Are Struggling to Recruit, and Price are Nudging Up (My Publications)

The release of the NFIB survey at 6.00AM eastern time this morning--really, they need a new PR advisor--doubtless will bring a flurry of headlines about rising wage pressures, with the expected compensation index rising by a startling three points to a new post-crash high. But this is not news, nor is the high, stable level of hiring intentions; these key labor market numbers were released last week in the NFIB Jobs Report, which appears the day before the official employment report. The data are simply extracted from the main NFIB survey.

9 Feb. 2015 The German economy is improving: Q4 GDP will beat consensus (My Publications)

German industrial production data were presented by Bloomberg News as signs that the recovery is "gathering momentum", but it is slightly premature to make that call. Narrow money growth is currently sending a strong signal of higher GDP growth this year in the euro area, but the message from the manufacturing sector is still one of stabilisation rather than acceleration.

9 September. 2016 iPhone Price Hike Underlines Incoming In ation Shock (My Publications)

The consequences of sterling's sharp depreciation for inflation were brought home yesterday by the news that the iPhone 7 will cost more than its predecessor. The entry-level version is priced at £60 more than its iPhone 6S equivalent. Of course, the new version is more advanced, but the fact that the dollar price held steady, at $649, demonstrates the U.K. price hike entirely is due to the adverse impact of the weaker pound.

9 November. 2016 Trump Stuns LatAm... Banxico Likely Will Have to Act (My Publications)

As it became clear that Donald Trump would beat Hillary Clinton to win the U.S. presidency, EM currencies came under severe pressure, fearing his economic and immigration policies. Some of the initial pressure is easing as markets digest the news and following Mr. Trump's conciliatory tone in his victory speech. But the proposals have been made and the MXN and other key LatAm assets likely will remain very stressed in the near term.

7 September. 2016 Copom Minutes Suggest that October Easing is Very Much Alive (My Publications)

The recent less-bad growth and inflation data in Brazil are encouraging news and are setting the stage for easing in October. The minutes of the Copom's August 31 monetary policy meeting, released yesterday, were less hawkish than in previous months, indicating that policymakers are gauging the possibility of cutting rates.

8 Apr. 2016 Tame Inflation Pressures Leave Banxico Room to Breathe (My Publications)

Good news keeps on coming from Mexico, and the outlook is still favourable. Overall inflation pressures remain subdued and the domestic economy remains reasonably solid, despite a modest slowdown in recent months. Job creation remains robust, and real wages have been growing at a solid, non-inflationary pace.

7 Dec. 2015 Will the MPC Attempt to Steer the Markets to an Earlier Hike Again? (My Publications)

December's meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee is likely to be a quiet affair in comparison to this month's pivotal ECB and Fed meetings. It's hard to see what news would have persuaded other members to join Ian McCafferty in voting to raise interest rates this month. The MPC might comment in the minutes to try to reverse the further fall in market interest rate expectations since its previous meeting, when it already thought they were too low. But the potency of any moderately hawkish guidance may be diluted by further strident comments from the Committee's doves.

6 June 2017 Andes Economies to Recover in H2, Thanks to Loose Monetary Policy (My Publications)

Recent data have confirmed that growth in the Andean economies--Colombia, Chile and Peru--faced downward pressure in Q1, but some leading indicators and recent hard data suggest that we should expect better news ahead.

6 February 2017 Growth Indicators Start to Turn Down as Price Pressures Escalate (My Publications)

The run of above-consensus news on the U.K. economy came to an abrupt end last week, as a series of survey indicators for January took a turn for the worse. After six months of breathing space, the economic consequences of the Brexit vote are increasingly being felt.

7 April 2017 What Place will QE have in the Bank's Future Policy Mix? (My Publications)

Markets were jolted yesterday by news that the U.S. Fed is mulling ending, or at least slowing, the reinvestment of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities later this year. Such a move would reduce liquidity in global markets that has underpinned soaring equity prices in recent years.

25 Feb. 2015 Sharp Increase in Brazil's Inflation Rate - BCB Will Have to Hike Again (My Publications)

The bad economic news in Brazil is unstoppable. The mid-month CPI index rose 1.3% month-to-month in February, as education, housing, and transport prices increased. School tuition fees jumped 6% month-to-month in February, reflecting their annual adjustment, and transport costs rose by 2% due to an increase in regulated gasoline prices.

News (News and Media)

BLOOMBERG - And Now It's Time to Talk About the Fed (News and Media)

With today's jobs report confirming a strong labor market recovery, it's time to turn our attention back to the Fed

BUSINESS INSIDER - Here come private payrolls ... (News and Media)

In a note to clients ahead of the report, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro said that while ADP isn't all that reliable of an indicator for the government's payroll release, set for Friday morning.

BUSINESS INSIDER - Germany's ballooning trade surplus just hit a new record size (News and Media)

Germany's exporters just broke another record: The trade surplus for Europe's biggest economy is now at its highest on record.........Here's how Germany's recent export history looks, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics

BUSINESS INSIDER - Europe's Largest Economy Is Officially In Deflation (News and Media)

Germany's consumer price index fell 0.3% month-over-month in January. It's the first time the inflation rate went negative since September 2009. "Deflation has arrived," Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen said

BUSINESS INSIDER - Housing Starts Surge In December (News and Media)

Housing Starts Surge In December

MAIL ONLINE - US home prices still trend lower in November (News and Media)

US home prices rose in November from October but the underlying trend continued to point to a slowdown in price gains, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index released Tuesday

NEW YORK TIMES - U.S. Economy Added 257,000 Jobs in January - Unemployment Rate at 5.7% (News and Media)

The economic momentum evident late last year carried into 2015, the Labor Department said Friday, with American employers adding 257,000 jobs in January as wage growth rebounded and more people joined the workforce

POLITICO - Downside risk to GDP today (News and Media)

OWNSIDE RISK TO GDP TODAY -- Pantheon's Ian Shepherdson: "We are nervous about the first estimate of fourth quarter GDP growth, due today

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists React to the January Fed Statement: 'The Door is Still Open to a June Hike' (News and Media)

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it would keep short-term interest rates near zero until at least the middle of the year. The central bank's policy committee also signaled caution about low inflation and nodded to overseas uncertainty by including new language that it would monitor international developments. Here's how economists reacted

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.S. Pending Home Sales Drop in December (News and Media)

The U.S. housing market stumbled into 2015 as a leading indicator of home sales dipped in December

BUSINESS INSIDER - This key labor market indicator hasn't been this strong in years (News and Media)

On Thursday morning, we'll get the best-performing indicator of the US labor market: initial jobless claims. For a while now, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson has been stressing that the weekly print is noisy, particularly with the volatility the end-of-year season brings

NEW YORK TIMES - Federal Reserve Won't Raise Interest Rates Before June, at Earliest (News and Media)

The Federal Reserve kept its options open on Wednesday, signaling that it would not raise short-term interest rates any earlier than June, while leaving unresolved how much longer it might be willing to wait before lifting its benchmark rate from near zero, where the central bank has held it for more than six years

BUSINESS INSIDER - Wages for American workers still look like they are about to go higher (News and Media)

In January, average hourly wages grew 0.5% over the prior month, the biggest month-on-month increase since November 2008......Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro said the outlook for wage growth is still strong

BUSINESS INSIDER - US trade deficit balloons (News and Media)

The US trade deficit unexpectedly widened by 17% to $46.6 billion in December from $39.8 billion in November.

NEW YORK TIMES - European Central Bank's Bond-Buying Will Help U.S. Tourists and Investors (News and Media)

European Central Bank's Bond-Buying Will Help U.S. Tourists and Investors...

CNBC - Is Draghi about to massively misfire? (News and Media)

Is Draghi about to massively misfire?

DAILY TELEGRAPH - Dollar dives as weak US retail sales data raises growth fears (News and Media)

Ian Shepherdson on December's low US retail sales.

INDEPENDENT - The chart that shows the UK economic recovery is "on its knees" (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. PMI data, April

FINANCIAL TIMES - Economists react as eurozone unemployment hits fresh post-crisis low (News and Media)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone unemployment

INDEPENDENT - UK pay growth data disappoints again as real wages decline at fastest rate in three years (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Labour Market data for May

BBC - UK car sales fall for fifth month in a row (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. New Car Registrations

BBC - UK third quarter GDP confirmed at 0.5% (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on UK Q3 GDP

BBC - Wage growth hit by higher inflation (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest U.K. Labour Market Data

Bloomberg - Brexit: London's status as a Financial Hub (News and Media)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on Bloomberg Surveillance

BLOOMBERG - Chile Labor Market Defies Slowdown as Manufacturing Shrinks (News and Media)

Senior International Economist Andres Abadia on Chile's jobless rate

BBC - UK goods trade gap biggest on record (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs Discussing the UK Goods Trade

BBC - UK economic growth slows to 0.4% in first quarter (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

BBC - Banks report new year buy-to-let rush (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Mortgage approvals

BBC - House prices in UK shift to lower gear (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. House Prices

BBC - UK car sales fall 9.3% in July says motor trade body (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. New Car Registrations, July

EURO INSIGHT - Households Save the Day for Eurozone GDP (News and Media)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone GDP

BLOOMBERG - Chile Prices Rise More Than Forecast as Inflation Picks Up (News and Media)

Senior International Economist Andres Abadia comments on the latest Inflation data for Chile

BLOOMBERG - Mexico GDP Growth Beats Forecasts as Services Provide Boost (News and Media)

Andres Abadia on Mexico GDP Growth

BLOOMBERG - Mexico Retail Sales Jump by Most Since 2012 as Inflation Eases (News and Media)

Senior International Economist Andres Abadia on mexico

BLOOMBERG - Yields lower, Equities probably higher - Ian Shepherdson (News and Media)

Pantheon Macroeconomics Founder and Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson discusses his outlook for the economy, equities and European banks. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

Bloomberg - How Fed Rate Hike Messaging Impacts the Economy (News and Media)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on Bloomberg Surveillance

BLOOMBERG - Fiscal spending cushions Chile's first contraction in 6 years (News and Media)

Senior International Economist Andres Abadia on Chile GDP.

BLOOMBERG - Chile's Economy Resumes Growth as Domestic Demand Picks Up (News and Media)

Senior International Economist Andres Abadia on Chile's economy

BLOOMBERG - Chile's Economy Grows More Than Forecast as Demand Picks Up (News and Media)

Senior International economist Andres Abadia comments on Chile's economic growth

BLOOMBERG - Economist Says U.S. Consumer Spending Is About To 'Surge' (News and Media)

Ian Shepherdson, Chief Economist at Pantheon MacroEconomics, on U.S. Consumer spending

Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.

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