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6 Dec 2019 Only Limited Upside for Sterling in the Event of a Tory Election Win (Publication Centre)

For sterling traders, no election news is good news.

6 Feb 2020 The PMIs Point to Stronger GDP Growth in Q1 than the MPC Expects (Publication Centre)

The post-election run of upbeat business surveys was extended yesterday, with the release of the final Markit/CIPS services PMI for January.

6 Nov 2019 A Lukewarm Response from Firms to the New Brexit Deal (Publication Centre)

October's Markit/CIPS services survey suggests that the PM's new Brexit deal has had a lukewarm reception from firms.

6 Aug 2020 The Recovery will Decelerate Sharply in the Autumn (Publication Centre)

A range of indicators show that the pace of the economic recovery shifted up a gear in July, when all shops were open for the entire month, and most consumer services providers finally were permitted to reopen.

20 September 2018 The EU Won't be Tariffed, at Least Not This Year (Publication Centre)

Mr. Trump fired the shot everyone was expecting this week with a 10% tariff on $200B-worth of Chinese goods, and a pledge to lift the rate to 25% on January 1.

20 May 2020 The EU Moves One Step Closer to a Jointly Financed Recovery Fund (Publication Centre)

Investors have been treated to good news in the past week, at least if they've managed to side-step the barrage of terrible economic data.

20 Nov 2019 EZ Construction has Stalled, but Expect a Rebound in H1 2020 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's headline economic data in the euro area were solid across the board, though the details were mixed.

7 Aug 2020 More Monetary Stimulus Likely in Q4, Despite the MPC's Optimism (Publication Centre)

The MPC struck a less dovish tone than markets had anticipated yesterday.

7 Feb 2020 Are U.K. Equities Still Trading at a Big Brexit-related Discount? (Publication Centre)

The rally in U.K. equities immediately after the general election has done little to reverse the prolonged period of underperformance relative to overseas markets since the E.U. referendum in June 2016.

8 Nov 2019 Don't Expect the MPC to Maintain its Dovish Bias Next Year (Publication Centre)

Investors now see a 50/50 chance of the MPC cutting Bank Rate within the next nine months, following the slightly dovish minutes of the MPC's meeting, and its new forecasts.

8 November 2018 September GDP Set To Undershoot the Consensus (Publication Centre)

Friday's GDP report likely will fuel concerns the economy has little underlying momentum. Granted, quarter-on-quarter growth probably sped up to 0.6% in Q3--exceeding the economy's potential rate--from 0.4% in Q2.

9 Jan 2020 Higher Investment Alone won't Solve the U.K.'s Productivity Problem (Publication Centre)

Productivity statistics released yesterday continued to paint a bleak picture. Output per worker rose by a mere 0.1% year-over-year in Q3, despite jumping by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter.

8 Jan 2020 Higher Oil Prices won't Stop the Economy Recovering this Year (Publication Centre)

The $10 increase in the price of Brent crude oil over the last three months to $68 is an unhelpful, but manageable, drag on the U.K. economy's growth prospects this year.

7 Sept 2020 GDP Growth will Slow Sharply as Temporary Supports are Removed (Publication Centre)

Data released during our summer break have strengthened the case for expecting the economic recovery to decelerate sharply in the autumn, well before GDP has returned to pre-Covid levels.

7 Jan 2020 Emerging Signs of a "Boris Bounce" in December's Services PMI (Publication Centre)

Hopes that GDP growth will strengthen following the general election, which has eliminated near- term threats of a no-deal Brexit and a business- hostile Labour government, were bolstered yesterday by the release of December's Markit/ CIPS services survey.

7 Nov 2019 GDP Likely Was Little Changed in September, Rounding off a Solid Q3 (Publication Centre)

The economic data calendar for next week is so congested that we need to preview early September's GDP report, released on Monday.

18 July 2019 Construction in the EZ Slowed in Q2, Denting GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data provided further evidence that GDP growth in the EZ economy slowed in Q2.

19 Nov 2019 Italian GDP Growth is Rebounding, but at a Painfully Slow Pace (Publication Centre)

Italy's economy is still bumping along the bottom, after emerging from recession in the middle of last year.

16 March 2018 New Car Sales in the Eurozone are Solid, But Italy is a Grim Outlier (Publication Centre)

Growth in new EZ car sales slipped last month, following a strong start to the year. New registrations rose 4.4% year-over-year in February, slowing from a 8.7% rise in January.

16 February 2018 French Unemployment Plunged in Q4, and will Fall Further this (Publication Centre)

The French labour market improved much more than we expected in Q4. The headline unemployment rate plunged to 8.9%, from a downwardly-revised 9.6% in Q3.

16 Dec 2019 Will the Government in France Stand Fast on its Pension Reform? (Publication Centre)

Friday's sole economic report showed that wage growth in France remained robust mid-way through the year. The non-seasonally adjusted private wage index, ex-agriculture and public sector workers, published by the Labour Ministry, rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q3.

10 Jan 2020 Carney's Rate Cut Meditation Indicates Normalisation is Distant (Publication Centre)

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate in the first half of this year leapt to 50% yesterday, from 35%, following Mark Carney's speech.

17 Dec 2019 The EZ PMIs Point to Another Subpar Quarter for the EZ in Q4 (Publication Centre)

We're sticking to our call that the Eurozone PMIs have bottomed, though we concede that the picture so far is more one of stabilisation than an outright rebound.

14 Oct 2019 If German CPI Data won't Guide Bunds, Maybe Fiscal Policy will (Publication Centre)

Friday's data added further colour to the September CPI data for the Eurozone.

18 July 2018 Car Sales Likely Lifted EZ Durable Goods Consumption in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Momentum in the EZ auto sector rebounded at the end of the second quarter.

17 December 2018 The Grinch Has Taken Charge of Economic Data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy finished last week with a horrendous set of economic data.

18 February 2019 This Will be a Long Year for Domestic Car Sales in the EZ (Publication Centre)

The EZ manufacturing data have shown signs of a rebound in the auto sector recently.

17 July 2020 The ECB Takes Stock of a Strong and Sustained Stimulus Program (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB meeting was a snoozer, just as we predicted.

18 January 2017 Will Slower Growth in EZ Car Sales Hit Total Consumption this Year? (Publication Centre)

Demand for new cars in the Eurozone has climbed a long way since the last recession, but growth is slowing. Overall, new car registrations in the EZ rose a solid 15.2% in 2016 as a whole. But momen tum slowed in the second half, and sales likely will remain comparatively muted this year. In December, registrations in the euro area rose 2.1% year-over-year in December, down from 5.8% in November. The headline was depressed by plunging growth in some of the smaller countries, offsetting better numbers in the major four economies.

BBC - UK car sales fall 9.3% in July says motor trade body (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. New Car Registrations, July

19 June 2017 Don't be Deceived by Jumping EZ Car Sales, Momentum is Slowing (Publication Centre)

Demand for new cars in the Eurozone rebounded last month. New car registrations jumped 10.3% year-over-year in May, reversing the 5.1% decline in April. The headline was boosted by solid growth in all the major economies.

18 Apr. 2016 EZ Demand for New Cars Slowed in Q1, and will Slow A gain in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Growth in Eurozone car sales slowed slightly at the end of the first quarter. New car registrations in the euro area rose 5.8% year-over-year in March, down from a 14.4% increase in February. But the 12-month average level of new registrations jumped to new cyclical highs of 440,000 and 252,000 in the core and periphery respectively.

7 February 2017 January's Rise in Car Sales is Misleading, it won't be Sustained (Publication Centre)

The 5% year-over-year increase in private new car registrations in January ended a nine-month period of falling sales. January's increase, however, is unlikely to be a bellwether for car sales over the whole year, or for the strength of consumer spending more generally.

19 Oct. 2015 No Slowdown Yet in EZ Car Sales, But Next Year Will be Different (Publication Centre)

Car sales continue to offer solid support for consumption spending in the Eurozone. Growth of new car registrations in the euro area fell trivially to 10.6% year-over-year in September, from 10.8% in August, consistent with a stable trend. Surging sales in the periphery are the key driver of the impressive performance, with new registrations rising 22.1% and 17.1% in Spain and Italy respectively, and surging 30% in Portugal. Favorable base effects mean that rapid growth rates will continue in Q4, supporting consumers' spending.

17 July 2017 Eurozone Consumers' Demand for New Cars is Slowing (Publication Centre)

Consumers' demand for cars slowed in the Eurozone at the end of the second quarter. New car registrations in the euro area rose 3.0% year-over-year in June, slowing dramatically from a 10.3% rise in May.

8 May 2019 Don't Extrapolate from April's Double-Digit Decline in Car Sales (Publication Centre)

The 10.3% year-over-year decline in private new car registrations in April likely is not a sign that the trend in either vehic le sales or consumers' overall spending is taking a turn f or the worse.

BBC - UK car sales fall for fifth month in a row (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. New Car Registrations

Financial Times - Uncertainty puts brakes on UK car market (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Automotive Industry

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