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53 matches for " negative rates":
Speculation that the MPC will abandon its aversion to negative rates has increased, following recent comments by Committee members.
The Fed meeting today is unlikely to bring any significant policy shifts, mostly because the Fed has done everything we thought would be necessary once it became clear how badly the economy would be hit by Covid-19.
Barring a meteor strike, the ECB will leave its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged today, at 0.00% and -0.5% respectively.
• U.S. - A squeeze on wages will keep a lid on inflation • EUROZONE - EZ consumption is collapsing, but M1 is soaring • U.K. - No negative rates in the U.K., but we expect a boost to the TFSME • ASIA - China's industrial sector is still wobbling • LATAM - The Brazilian economy is in a world of pain
What to expect from the ECB as Ms. Lagarde takes the seat as new president?
The ECB will not make any major changes to policy today.
The ECB will keep its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged at 0.00% and -0.4% today, but we think the central bank will satisfy markets' expectations for more clarity on the QE program next year.
Yesterday's sole economic report in the EZ showed that consumer sentiment in Germany improved mid-way through the fourth quarter.
The continued gradual rise in new confirmed cases of Covid-19 lends more weight to the idea that the economy already has reopened as much as possible while containing the virus.
If we analyse the Covid-19 shock as a normal downturn, the clock has now been reset on the business cycle, which in turn implies that it is a great time to be invested in EZ equities.
We suspect that under the calm surface of the BoJ, a major decision is being debated.
We're breaking protocol this week by delivering our preview for Thursday's ECB meeting in today's Monitor.
Europe's political leaders finally made a breakthrough this week in nominating candidates for the top jobs in the EU.
Friday's sole economic report revealed that the Eurozone's current account surplus fell slightly at the start of Q3, despite robust trade numbers.
The Eurozone's external surplus recovered a bit of ground mid-way through the third quarter.
A range of indicators show that the pace of the economic recovery shifted up a gear in July, when all shops were open for the entire month, and most consumer services providers finally were permitted to reopen.
Markets interpreted the MPC's decision yesterday to buy £150B more gilts next year, together with its latest forecasts and comments in the minutes, as a sign that the Committee is less likely to resort to reducing Bank Rate below its current 0.10% level.
The MPC struck a less dovish tone than markets had anticipated yesterday.
Predicting which way markets would move in response to potential general election outcomes has been relatively straightforward in the past. But the usual rules of thumb will not apply when the election results filter through after polling stations close on Thursday evening.
The ink has hardly dried on economists' and the ECB's inflation projections for 2020, but we suspect that some forecasters are already considering ripping up the script.
Many analysts were alarmed earlier this week by news from across the pond that the U.S. treasury is planning to break the bank in the fight against Covid-19.
The key aspects of the ECB's policy stance will remain unchanged at today's meeting.
The Fed's unscheduled 50bp cut on Tuesday opens up some space for Asian central banks to follow suit.
As we reach our deadline at 4pm Eastern, definitive results are not yet available for Nevada, Georgia or Pennsylvania, any one of which would push Joe Biden over the 270 Electoral Vote threshold, given that Michigan and Wisconsin have been called for him.
Economists refer to two different types of forward rate guidance by central banks: Delphic and Odyssean. The former describes a "normal" situation, in which the central bank follows a transparent rate-setting rule allowing markets to forecast what it will do, based on the flow of economic data.
The economy will endure a sluggish recovery from Covid-19 this year, even if a second wave of the virus is avoided, partly because monetary stimulus is not filtering through powerfully to households.
Sterling has recovered virtually all of the ground it lost against the U.S. dollar in the spring, rising to $1.31 in recent days, from just $1.26 a month ago and a low of $1.15 in March.
Financial markets have barely reacted to economic data surprises since the Covid-19 crisis commenced in March.
Equities in the Eurozone are off to a strong start in Q2, building on their punchy 12% gain in the first quarter.
Friday's data added further colour to the September CPI data for the Eurozone.
The U.K. general election is the main event in today's European calendar, but the first official ECB meeting and press conference under the leadership of Ms. Lagarde also deserves attention.
The ECB will rest on its laurels today.
The MPC likely will steer clear of providing strong signals on the outlook for monetary policy at next week's meeting.
We agree with the majority of economists that the MPC will announce on Thursday another £100B of asset purchases, primarily of gilts, once it has completed the £200B of purchases it authorised on March 19.
We're expecting to see the sixth straight drop in initial jobless claims this week, though we think the 2,500K consensus forecast is too ambitious.
Yesterday's detailed July CPI report ought to have provided the first clear evidence of the effect on euro area inflation from the Covid-19 shock.
The INSEE business sentiment data in France continue to tell a story of a robust economy.
The case for the MPC to extend its asset purchase programme into 2021 is compelling. The mere 2.1% month-to-month rise in GDP in August has left the Committee's September forecast for Q3 GDP to be 7% below its Q4 2019 peak looking too sanguine; and note that this was revised this from the 8.6% shortfall forecast in August's Monetary Policy Report.
The uncertainty over the strength and speed of the economic rebound is still a concern for investors in terms of putting money to work.
he ECB governing council gathered last week under the leadership of Ms. Lagarde for the first time to lay a battle plan for the course ahead.
The BoE has lived up to its reputation again as one of the most unpredictable central banks.
Yesterday's sole economic report showed that the Eurozone's external surplus recovered ground over the summer, but we don't think the rebound will last long.
Bond yields in the Eurozone took another leg lower yesterday.
Investors probably are right to expect this week's MPC meeting to lack drama.
The ECB is doubling down on its inflation target...QE and negative rates are here to stay
• U.S. - The FOMC puts the Fed funds rate on ice • EUROZONE - What does the Fed's new rate policy mean for the ECB and EZ assets? • U.K. - More QE, but no negative rates, this week • ASIA - Solid Chinese M1 data suggest the PBoC will hold back on rate cuts • LATAM - Banxico to cut rates further, despite higher inflation
The MPC surprised yesterday both with its bullish take on the economy's current health, and with the news that it will begin, in Q4, "structured engagement on the operational considerations" regarding negative rates.
Market-implied expectations of negative rates through 2021, and bund yields plunging below -0.1%, are an accident waiting to happen, but the main story is clear as rain.
• U.S. - Flat near-real time growth data don't mean zero Q3 GDP growth • EUROZONE - A revival of Covid-19 and a EURUSD rally; what gives? • U.K. - The MPC is on the fence regarding negative rates • ASIA - The Asian economics team is on vacation • LATAM - The virus has brought Mexico's economy to its knees
Where will EURUSD go in Q2? How about nowhere
Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on Corporate Tax Cuts
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