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3 June 2019 China's Faltering "Recovery" will Keep its Trade Negotiators Engaged (Publication Centre)

The sharp fall in China's manufacturing PMI in May makes clear that its recovery is nowhere near secured.

29 May 2019 Chinese Industrial Profits Tanked in April, after the March Spike (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits in China dropped 3.7% year-over- year in April, after surging 13.9% in March, according to the officially reported data.

29 March 2018 Korean GDP Should Bounce Back in Q1, but Faces Headwinds Thereafter (Publication Centre)

The picture for Korean quarterly real GDP growth in Q4 was unchanged in the final reading, published yesterday, showing a contraction of 0.2%, after the 1.4% jump in Q3.

3 June 2019 The Trade War Deepens, Mexico's Economy is Under Heavy Fire (Publication Centre)

President Trump's volatile diplomatic style is one of the biggest risks facing the Mexican economy in the near term, as we have discussed in previous Monitors.

3 Sept 2019 If China Doesn't Budge as Tariffs Rise, Mr. Trump will Blink, Eventually (Publication Centre)

After a week--yes, a whole week!--with no significant new developments in the trade war with China--it's worth stepping back and asking a couple of fundamental questions, which might give us some clues as to what will happen over the months ahead.

30 Sept 2019 Follow the Numbers for Clues to Mr. Trump's Impeachment Fate (Publication Centre)

We have no way of knowing what will be the final outcome of the impeachment inquiry now underway in the House of Representatives, but we are pretty sure that the first key stage will end with a vote to send the President for trial in the Senate.

30 May 2019 More Pain Before the Gain Will Markets Force Trump to the Table (Publication Centre)

The trade war with China is not big enough or bad enough alone to push the U.S. economy into recession.

27 November 2018 Do Q3's Healthy Sales Data Signal Further Strength in Mexico (Publication Centre)

Improving fundamentals have supported private spending in Mexico during the current cycle.

27 March 2019 Part Two Q&A from our Meetings Last Week RMB Stability (Publication Centre)

The main thing on investors' minds is how much more pain the global economy has to take as a result of China's slowdown.

25 July 2018 Threats Posed by Brexit and Trump Stymie Manufacturing Investment (Publication Centre)

The CBI's Industrial Trends Survey, for July and Q3, supplied encouraging evidence yesterday that the manufacturing upswing still has momentum.

23 Sept 2019 PBoC Refrains from a Rate Cut a Third Time, it's Still Coming (Publication Centre)

The PBoC left its interest rate corridor, including the Medium-term Lending Facility rate, unchanged last Friday, but published the reformed Loan Prime Rate modestly lower, at 4.20% in September, down from 4.25% in August.

26 February 2019 A U.S. China Trade Deal is in Sight Trump's Huawei U-Turn is Positive (Publication Centre)

Nothing is done until it's done, and, in the case of Sino-U.S. trade talks, even if a deal is reached, the new normal is that tensions will be bubbling in the background.

26 March 2018 Tariffs Remain a Sideshow, the Real war is for Tech Ownership (Publication Centre)

President Trump made official his plan to impose tariffs on up to $60B of annual imports from China, as well as limitations on Chinese investments in the U.S.

27 June 2019 Deal or No Deal Fed Cut or No Fed Cut What Does the PBoC Do (Publication Centre)

In this Monitor, befitting these uncertain times, we set out the decision tree facing Chinese policymakers.

27 December 2018 The President is the Problem, not the Federal Reserve or Jay Powell (Publication Centre)

The biggest single problem for the stock market is the president.

31 May 2019 Q&A on the Government Takeover of Baoshang Bank (Publication Centre)

Was this an isolated occurrence, connected to the graft investigation into Chinese billionaire Xiao Jianhua, and his financial conglomerate?

4 December 2018 Eurozone Markets Want to Believe in the U.S.-China Trade Truce (Publication Centre)

The 90-day truce in the trade wars between the U.S. and China, brokered on Saturday at the G20 meeting in Argentina, is a big deal for financial markets in the euro area, at least in the near term.

7 June 2019 Did Mr. Draghi Inadvertently Snub Expectations for a Q4 Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

It says a lot about investor expectations that markets' reaction to yesterday's policy announcement by the ECB was marked by slight "disappointment," with EURUSD rallying and EZ bond yields rising.

7 Aug 2019 We're Still Not Buying Healthy Data in Japan Wage Growth is Distorted (Publication Centre)

Always expect the unexpected in a bonus month for Japanese wages.

7 March 2018 The Eurozone has a lot to lose from a trade war (Publication Centre)

We are surprised by the EU's reaction to Mr. Trump's announcement that the U.S. will impose tariffs on steel and aluminium.

8 November 2018 Is it Time to Worry About Consumers' Spending in Japan (Publication Centre)

The recent slowdown in labour cash earnings growth in Japan halted in September.

8 Oct 2019 PBoC Gives State-Owned Banks a Break Ahead of the 70th Anniversary (Publication Centre)

China was in lockdown ahead of the 70th Anniversary last week, as is typical around important political events.

8 Oct 2019 Does China Want a Comprehensive Trade Deal with Trump (Publication Centre)

We have argued for a while that China and the U.S. will not reach a comprehensive trade deal until after the next election.

6 Sept 2019 China Signals Stimulus Top-ups are on the Way (Publication Centre)

A growing number of economists have marked down their forecasts for Chinese growth next year to below the critical 6% year-over-year rate, required to ensure that the authorities meet their implicit medium- term growth targets.

6 November 2018 Expect Little Change in Economic Policy After the Midterms (Publication Centre)

We read the same polls, newspapers, and political websites as everyone else, and we're not claiming any special insight into the outcome of the midterm elections today.

4 June 2019 The Official PMI has it Right Tariff hit has Derailed China's Trade Recovery (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI was steady in May, at 50.2, in contrast to the official gauge published on Friday, which dropped to 49.5, from April's 50.2.

4 June 2019 Dark Clouds Still Linger Over Manufacturing in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The most positive thing to say about the EZ manufacturing PMI at the moment is that it has stopped falling.

4 Sept 2019 The Manufacturing Rollover Worsens Blame the Trade War (Publication Centre)

We have argued for some time that much of the early phase of the downturn in global manufacturing was due to the weakening of China's economic cycle, rather than the trade war.

5 March 2018 Consumers' Spending in Germany Probably will Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data in Germany suggest that households had a slow start to the year.

5 August 2019 Tariffs on Chinese Consumer Goods not Necessarily a Done Deal (Publication Centre)

The President's threat to impose tariffs on imported Chinese consumer goods on September 1 might yet come to nothing.

10 June 2019 Don't Expect the MPC to Follow in Other Central Banks' Footsteps (Publication Centre)

Interest rate expectations continued to fall sharply last week.

23 May 2019 Did the Main EZ Survey Data Take a Further Tumble in May (Publication Centre)

Today's EZ calendar is a busy one.

15 May 2019 From Zero to King's Landing, how Bad Could Chinese Trade Become (Publication Centre)

Following Chinese retaliation against new U.S. tariffs last week, the U.S. responded last night, as promised, setting in train the process to slap tariffs on the remaining approximately $300B of imports from China.

15 Aug 2019 Mr. Trump Takes a Dose of Reality on Tariffs, but is he Narrativising HK (Publication Centre)

Nobody has a monopoly on "the truth".

14 May 2019 Trade Stand-off won't Last Forever, but Expect a Few Painful Weeks (Publication Centre)

Markets are caught in a trade loop.

15 October 2018 Chinese Trade: Import from Anywhere but the U.S. (Publication Centre)

China's September trade numbers show that, far from reducing the surplus with the U.S., the trade wars so far have pushed it up to a new record.

16 Aug 2019 Consumption Started Q3 Strongly Industry Still in the Doldrums (Publication Centre)

The surge in July core retail sales was flattered by the impact of the Amazon Prime Event, which helped drive a 2.8% leap in sales at nonstore retailers.

16 Sept 2019 The Economy is Set for a Grinding Slowdown, No Relief Until 2021 (Publication Centre)

We have been quite bullish on U.S. economic growth this year.

16 Sept 2019 Japan's Domestic Demand Holding up Thanks to Services, it Won't Last (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index edged up 0.1% month-on-month in July, after the 0.1% decrease in June.

14 May 2019 China's Retaliation is a Face-Saving Operation Somebody Tell Mr. Trump (Publication Centre)

Yesterday, China finally retaliated against Mr. Trump's Friday tariff hikes, promising to increase tariffs on around $60B-worth of U.S. goods.

12 Sept 2019 Is China Making a Big Monetary Policy Blunder (Publication Centre)

China's money and credit numbers were once again unspectacular in August. M2 growth edged up to 8.2% year-over-year, from 8.1% in July.

10 May 2019 See No Evil, Hear No Evil in Today's U.S. China Trade Talks (Publication Centre)

As we head to press, investors are holding their breath over whether today's trade talks between the U.S. and China will be enough for Mr. Trump to step back from his pledge to increase tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods to 25%.

10 May 2017 The Budget Deficit is Rising, even Before any Unfunded Tax Cuts (Publication Centre)

The CBO reckons that the April budget surplus jumped to about $179B, some $72B more than in the same month last year. This looks great, but alas all the apparent improvement reflects calendar distortions on the spending side of the accounts.

10 Oct 2019 A Sovereignty Threat is a Deal-breaker for China (Publication Centre)

Since the protests in Hong Kong began, we've become increasingly convinced that China is backing away from a comprehensive trade deal with Mr. Trump.

11 February 2019 Net Exports Probably Boosted German GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

German exports flatlined for most of 2018, driving the trade surplus down by 7.3% amid still-solid growth in imports.

11 September 2018 The Trade Wars are Neutral in China's Trade Surplus, so far (Publication Centre)

At the time of writing, Mr. Trump reportedly is finalising plans to impose tariffs of up to 25% on a further $200B of imports from China.

11 June 2019 A Sino-U.S. Deal would Curb China's Trade Surplus...But Only Temporarily (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus bounced back strongly in May, rising to $40.1B on our adjustment, from $35.7B previously.

21 June 2019 Financial Markets in the Eurozone are now in Bizarro-World (Publication Centre)

Swoons in EZ investor sentiment are not always reliable leading indicators for the economic surveys, but it is fair to say that risks for today's advance PMIs are tilted to the downside, following the dreadful Sentix and ZEW headlines earlier this month.

17 Sept 2019 China Needs a Rate Cut and an Interim Deal it will Prioritise Rates (Publication Centre)

China's activity data yesterday made pretty uncomfortable reading for policymakers.

2 November 2018 Will the October Stock Market Swoon Hurt the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Last month was sobering month for equity investors in the Eurozone, and indeed in the global economy as a whole.

2 May 2019 Are Consensus-Beating Economic Data a Signal to Buy the Euro (Publication Centre)

In broad terms, the euro has followed the EZ economy in the past 12-to-18 months.

20 December 2018 Pick a Multiple for EZ Equities Next Year, and Hope for the Best (Publication Centre)

This year has been sobering for Eurozone equity investors.

20 February 2018 Everyone is Talking About Current Accounts Again (Publication Centre)

The euro area's current account surplus stumbled at the end of 2017, falling to €29.9B in December from an upwardly-revised €35.0B in November.

20 September 2018 The EU Won't be Tariffed, at Least Not This Year (Publication Centre)

Mr. Trump fired the shot everyone was expecting this week with a 10% tariff on $200B-worth of Chinese goods, and a pledge to lift the rate to 25% on January 1.

20 September 2018 Consensus is Wrong in Thinking the BoJ will Sit on its Hands Next Year (Publication Centre)

The BoJ kept all policy measures unchanged at its meeting yesterday.

2 July 2019 Mr. Trump Removes the Gun from Mr. Xi's Head... Now a Deal? (Publication Centre)

We anticipated that the G20 meeting at Osaka over last weekend would be a potentially important mark of thawing relations between China and the U.S., with the hotly awaited meeting between Messrs. Xi and Trump.

2 January 2019 China to Turn up the Stimulus in 2019, but Constraints Remain (Publication Centre)

At the end of last year, China's Central Economic Work Conference set out the lay of the land for 2019. Cutting through the rhetoric, we think the readout implies more expansionary fiscal policy, and a looser stance on monetary policy.

19 Aug 2019 The BoJ will Continue to Cross its Fingers on Yield Curve Inversion (Publication Centre)

An inverted curve is a widely recognised signal that a recession is around the corner, though it's worth remembering that the lags tend to be long.

18 Sept 2019 Markets have let the BoJ off the Hook the Bank will be Grateful (Publication Centre)

Markets have given the BoJ a break this month, with the 10-year JGB yield rising back into the implied band around the 0% target, and the yen snapping its appreciation streak.

19 June 2019 Mr. Draghi all but Promises Further Monetary Easing in Sintra (Publication Centre)

It is a known axiom among EZ economists that the ECB never pre-commits, but yesterday's speech by Mr. Draghi in Sintra--see here--is as close as it gets.

19 November 2018 Only a Disaster Would Make the ECB Blink on Ending QE in Q4 (Publication Centre)

It's been a sobering couple of months in the Eurozone economy.

19 September 2018 Tariffs Could have been Worse Have we Reached Peak Pain for this Year (Publication Centre)

Mr. Trump laid out plans yesterday to impose a new 10% tariff on a further $200B-worth of imports from China, to be levied from next week.

18 June 2019 Mr. Kuroda says Capex is Key for Japan's Economy How is it Doing (Publication Centre)

Japanese policymakers have a wary eye on the weakness in industrial production and exports.

8 February 2019 Fiscal Deadlines Promise Drama, but Probably not Crises (Publication Centre)

Two fiscal deadlines are on the near-horizon.

3 July 2018 AMLO Wins a Landslide Victory Markets Will Keep a Close Eye on Him (Publication Centre)

Early results project that Andrés Manuel López Obrador--AMLO--will become the new Mexican president with 53.4% of the votes, against Ricardo Anaya's 22.6%, and José Antonio Meade's 15.7%. AMLO has declared victory and thanked his opponents, who recognized his triumph.

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