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4 July 2019 Investors are Seeing Carney's Comments Through a Dovish Prism (Publication Centre)

Investors have concluded from June's Markit/CIPS PMIs and Governor Carney's speech on Tuesday that the chance of the MPC cutting Bank Rate before the end of this year now is about 50%, rising to 55% by the time of Mr. Carney's final meeting at the end of January.

4 Sept 2019 The Conservatives' Poll Lead Does Not Have Strong Foundations (Publication Centre)

A general election this year now looks inevitable, after the defection of Phillip Lee MP from the Tories to the Lib Dems, and the PM's threat to seek an election if MPs take control of the Order Paper on Tuesday evening.

5 July 2019 Sterling has no Parachute in the Event of a No-deal Brexit (Publication Centre)

Just how low would sterling go in the event of a no-deal Brexit? When Reuters last surveyed economists at the start of June, the consensus was that sterling would settle between $1.15 and $1.20 and fall to parity against the euro within one month after an acrimonious separation on October 31.

9 Sept 2019 Brexiteers Lost the Brexit Day Battle, But Will They Win the Election War (Publication Centre)

After last week's drama, the pace of political developments should slow down this week.

31 July 2019 Rising Confidence Points to Solid Household Spending Ahead of Brexit (Publication Centre)

The further depreciation of sterling yesterday, to its lowest level against the dollar and euro since March 2017 and September 2017, respectively, signified deepening pessimism among investors about the chances of a no-deal Brexit.

3 Oct 2019 Regional Polling Data Point to a Tory Majority, But The Race Will Narrow (Publication Centre)

We continue to expect a general election to be held in December.

21 June 2019 No Sign the BoE is About to Follow Others With Fresh Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The MPC's unanimous decision to keep Bank Rate at 0.75% and the minutes of its meeting left little impression on markets, which still see a higher chance of the MPC cutting Bank Rate within the next 12 months than raising it.

24 June 2019 The New PM Soon will be Asking for a Further Brexit Extension (Publication Centre)

British politics remains a complete mess, with many outcomes, ranging from no-deal Brexit to revoking Article 50, possible in the second half of this year.

24 Sept 2019 Is the Tories' True Poll Lead Massive or Minute? (Publication Centre)

Support for the Conservatives has shown no sign of flagging in recent weeks, despite the setbacks in the Commons earlier this month and the government's failure so far to secure a revised Brexit deal.

26 July 2019 A Guide to Gauging How Much No- Deal Brexit Risk is Priced-in (Publication Centre)

In our view, the chances of a no-deal Brexit on October 31 have not surged just because Boris Johnson has become Prime Minister and is gesticulating wildly at the Despatch Box.

14 June 2019 Johnson is a Shoo-In For the Final Round, but He'll Face a Soft Brexiteer (Publication Centre)

After the first round of voting by Tory MPs, Boris Johnson remains the clear favourite to be the next Prime Minister.

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