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26 October. 2016 Consumer Energy Price Rises Are in the Pipeline (Publication Centre)

Sharp falls in energy prices have been a boon for consumers, freeing up considerable funds for discretionary purchases. Domestic energy and motor fuel absorbed just 4.7% of consumers' spending in Q2, the lowest proportion for 12 years and well below the 6.7% recorded three years ago.

20 December 2018 CPI Inflation will be Below the 2% Target Right from the Start of 2019 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation fell to 2.3% in November--its lowest rate since March 2017--from 2.4% in October, and it remains on track to fall rapidly over the winter.

20 April 2018 Weak Retail Sales in Q1 Can't be Attributed Solely to Bad Weather (Publication Centre)

The 1.2% month-to-month fall in retail sales volumes in March undoubtedly was due mostly to the bad weather.

2 August 2017 An Advance Preview of July's Consumer Price Figures (Publication Centre)

July's consumer price figures--published on August 15th, while we are on vacation--look set to show that June's drop in CPI inflation was just a blip. We think that CPI inflation ticked up to 2.7% in July, from 2.6% in June, on track to slightly exceed 3% toward the end of this year.

20 Feb 2020 Domestically-Generated Inflation Will Rise Further, Ruling Out a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate by June fell to 34%, from 38%, after the release of January's consumer price figures, though investors still see around an 80% chance of a cut by the end of this year.

20 June 2019 Rising Domestically-Generated Inflation Points to a Steadfast MPC (Publication Centre)

May's consumer prices report contained few surprises. The fall in the headline rate of CPI inflation to 2.0%, from April's Easter-boosted 2.1%, matched the consensus, our forecast and the MPC's.

20 September 2017 August Retail Sales to Confirm Consumption Still Weak in Q3 (Publication Centre)

August's retail sales figures, released today, look set to show that growth in consumers' spending has remained subpar in Q3, casting doubt over whether the MPC will conclude that the economy can cope with a rate hike this year.

20 May 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Exceeded the MPC's Expectations in April (Publication Centre)

We expect April's consumer price figures, due on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation leapt to 2.3%, from 1.9% in March, exceeding the MPC's 2.2% forecast in the latest Inflation Report.

19 Sept 2019 CPI Inflation won't Remain Below- Target for Long (Publication Centre)

The decline in CPI inflation to 1.7% in August, from 2.1% in July, has not materially boosted the chances of the MPC cutting interest rates within the next six months.

20 July 2020 Which High Frequency Indicators Truly Add Value? (Publication Centre)

High frequency data are all the rage, given the speed and severity of the Covid-19 shock. GDP data are published with a lag of about six weeks, too long for investors to wait.

19 May 2020 Inflation Likely Slumped Below 1% in April, on Course for Zero by Q3 (Publication Centre)

April's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, likely will show that CPI inflation plunged and is heading quickly to a near-zero rate by the summer.

18 October 2017 Weak Underlying Price Pressures Give the MPC Scope to Wait (Publication Centre)

A November interest rate rise is far from the done deal that markets still anticipate, even though CPI inflation rose to 3.0% in September from 2.9% in August.

18 June 2020 Deflation will be Just a Whisker Away in the Summer (Publication Centre)

The drop in CPI inflation to 0.5% in May, from 0.8% in April, brought it another big step closer to the near-zero rate we foresee in the second half of this year.

18 June 2019 CPI Inflation is Set to Fall Below- Target Again, But Not as Soon as May (Publication Centre)

We expect May's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation fell to 2.0% in May, from 2.1% in April.

18 Sept 2019 Retail Sales Likely Continued Their Above-Consensus Run in August (Publication Centre)

We expect August's retail sales figures, released on Thursday, to surprise modestly to the upside, supporting the MPC's view--which it will reaffirm later that day--that no fresh monetary stimulus is required any time soon.

19 December 2018 November Retail Sales Set to Outperform the Gloomy Consensus (Publication Centre)

The consensus for retail sales volumes to rise by a mere 0.3% month-to-month in November, after falling by 0.4% in September and 0.5% in Oc tober, looks too downbeat.

19 May 2017 Don't Mistake April's Retail Sales Surge for a Turning Point (Publication Centre)

Retail sales volumes jumped by 2.3% month-to-month in April, exceeding the 1.0% consensus and even our 2.0% forecast. It would be a big mistake to conclude, however, that households' spending will propel the economy forward this year like it did between 2013 and 2016.

19 July 2018 Sub-2% Core Inflation is Here to Stay, But the MPC Won't Blink (Publication Centre)

June's consumer price figures threw a last minute curve-ball at the MPC ahead of its key meeting on August 2.

21 Feb 2020 A Bad Weather Hit to February's Composite PMI (Publication Centre)

We expect the flash reading of Markit's composite PMI, released today, to print at 52.4 in February, below the consensus, 52.8, and January's final reading, 53.3, albeit still in line with last month's flash.

21 Mar. Upside Inflation Surprise in February Unlikely to be the Last (Publication Centre)

February's consumer price figures, released tomorrow, are likely to show that CPI inflation has picked up again, perhaps to 0.5%--the highest rate since December 2014--from 0.3% in January. This will give the Monetary Policy Committee more confidence in its judgement that CPI inflation will be back at the 2% target in two years' time.

28 June 2017 Inflation Forecast Revisions in August won't Force the MPC's Hand (Publication Centre)

The minutes of the MPC's meeting in June indicated that several members' patience for tolerating for above-target inflation is wearing thin.

26 September 2018 Will Higher Energy Prices Prevent Inflation from Falling Further? (Publication Centre)

The rise in oil prices to a four-year high of $82 will slow the pace at which inflation falls back over the next year only modestly.

26 Mar 2020 CPI Inflation to Slide Well Below 1% in the Summer (Publication Centre)

New BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will be reaching for his letter-writing pen soon, to explain to the Chancellor why CPI inflation is more than one percentage point below the 2% target.

6 November 2017 Could a Q4 Data Bounce the MPC into Another Rate Hike? (Publication Centre)

The MPC's penchant for providing interest rate guidance reached new heights last week.

6 September 2017 August's PMIs Show the Economy is too Brittle to Handle a Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

Our conviction that the economy continues to grow at a snail's pace increased yesterday following the release of August's Markit/CIPS services survey.

8 Jan 2020 Higher Oil Prices won't Stop the Economy Recovering this Year (Publication Centre)

The $10 increase in the price of Brent crude oil over the last three months to $68 is an unhelpful, but manageable, drag on the U.K. economy's growth prospects this year.

7 June 2018 Car Sales Aren't Recovering Yet, Recent Data are Misleading (Publication Centre)

At first glance, car sales appear to be staging a strong recovery, mirroring the better news on high street spending in Q2.

26 April 2018 Higher Energy Prices won't Stop Inflation Falling Further this Year (Publication Centre)

The contribution of energy prices to CPI inflation is set to increase over the coming months, following the pick-up in Brent oil prices to $74 per barrel, from $65 at the beginning of March.

23 November 2018 Lower Oil Prices are Another Tailwind for 2019 (Publication Centre)

The recent plunge in oil prices is another positive development, alongside looser fiscal policy and the striking of a Brexit deal with the E.U., pointing to scope for GDP growth to pick up next year.

22 March 2017 Inflation Will Continue to Exceed the MPC's Forecast (Publication Centre)

February's consumer price figures provided hard evidence that the import price shock, caused by sterling's depreciation last year, is filtering through faster than the MPC expected. We expect CPI inflation to continue to exceed the forecast set out in February's Inflation Report.

21 May 2020 Zero CPI Inflation Still Likely by the Summer, Following April's Big Fall (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation took a big step in April towards the near-zero rate we anticipate by the summer.

21 May 2018 Inflation Likely Fell Further in April, but a Summer Rebound Looms (Publication Centre)

April's consumer price figures, due on Wednesday, are set to show that CPI inflation has fallen, primarily due to the earlier timing of Easter this year than last. We

22 March 2019 The Phlegmatic MPC Still Envisages a 2019 Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

Unlike other central banks, the MPC has stuck to its message that "an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period" likely will be required to keep inflation close to the 2% target, provided a no-deal Brexit is avoided.

22 May 2018 Retail Sales Likely Recovered in April, but the Trend Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

April's retail sales figures, due Thursday, likely will show that spending recovered from snow-induced weakness in March.

23 May 2019 No Need to Reduce Inflation Forecasts After April's Low Print (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation rose only to 2.1% in April, from 1.9% in March, undershooting the 2.2% consensus and MPC forecasts, as well as our own 2.3% estimate.

22 May 2020 GDP Likely Has Started to Recover, Despite Still-Gloomy Surveys (Publication Centre)

We're placing less weight than usual on conventional business surveys at the moment, as they are ill-suited to charting the economy's turnaround from the Covid-19 slump.

18 July 2019 Below-Target Inflation in H2 Likely Won't Prompt the MPC to Ease (Publication Centre)

The headline rate of CPI inflation held steady at the 2% target in June, in line with the consensus and the MPC's Inflation Report forecast.

18 December 2018 CPI Inflation Likely Surprised to the Downside in November, Again (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation has undershot the consensus forecast six times this year, but surprised to the upside only twice.

13 September 2016 Sterling is Already Stoking Price Pressures, More to Come (Publication Centre)

August's consumer price figures, released today, likely will show that households' spending power is being increasingly eroded by rising inflation. We think CPI inflation picked up to 0.8%, from 0.6% in July, exceeding the consensus, 0.7%, for the third consecutive month.

13 November 2017 October's CPI Inflation Rate Should Represent the Peak (Publication Centre)

October's consumer price figures, released Tuesday, likely will show that CPI inflation increased to 3.1%, from 3.0% in September.

13 July 2020 June CPI to Print Below the Consensus by 0.1pp (Publication Centre)

June's consumer price figures, released on Wednesday, probably will be overshadowed this week by data for May for GDP--see our detailed preview here--and the labour market.

14 August 2018 CPI Inflation Likely Rose in July, but it Remains on a Downward Trend (Publication Centre)

July's consumer price figures, released on Wednesday, look set to show that CPI inflation rose to 2.5%, from 2.4% in June.

14 February 2017 Brace for January Data to Show Another Hefty Rise in CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

January's consumer price report, released today, likely will show that CPI inflation jumped to 1.9%--its highest rate since June 2014--from 1.6% in December. Inflation will continue to take big upward steps over the coming months, as retailers pass on to consumers large increase in import prices and energy companies increase tariffs.

15 Apr 2020 An Advance Guide to Next Week's Data, They'll Be Grim (Publication Centre)

The U.K. Monitor will be on a short break soon for paternity leave, so we are taking this opportunity to preview next week's data releases.

14 Nov 2019 Don't Mistake Below-Target Inflation for Underlying Weakness (Publication Centre)

The fall in CPI inflation to just 1.5% in October-- its lowest rate since November 2016--from 1.7% in September, isn't a game-changer for the monetary policy outlook.

14 February 2018 The Rise in Services Inflation Shouldn't Make the MPC Flinch (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at 3.0% in January, above the consensus by one tenth and thus pushing up the market-implied probability of a May rate hike to 65%, from 62% earlier this week.

13 Jan 2020 Downside Risk to the Consensus for December's CPI Report (Publication Centre)

December's consumer prices report looks set to show that CPI inflation was stable at 1.5%--in line with the consensus--though the risks are skewed to the downside.

13 Aug 2019 Risks to the Consensus for July CPI Inflation are Skewed to the Downside (Publication Centre)

We expect July's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, to reveal that CPI inflation dropped to 1.8% in July, from 2.0% in June.

12 April 2019 The Brexit Extension isn't the Death Knell for a 2019 Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

The E.U.'s decision to grant the U.K. a Brexit extension until October 31 does not extinguish the possibility that the MPC will raise Bank Rate before the end of the year.

11 February 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Fell Slightly Below The 2% Target in January (Publication Centre)

Analysts' forecasts for January's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, are unusually dispersed.

10 May 2017 April's Surge in Retail Sales Isn't a Turning Point (Publication Centre)

April's Retail Sales Monitor from the British Chambers of Commerce, released yesterday, provided a powerful signal that households' spending rebounded in April, following a terrible Q1.

12 February 2018 Stable CPI Inflation in January Won't Set the Tone for 2018 (Publication Centre)

January's consumer price figures, due on Tuesday, likely will show that CPI inflation held steady at December's 3.0% rate.

12 June 2018 Inflation Likely Held Steady in May, but a Brief Pick-up Lies Ahead (Publication Centre)

May's consumer price figures, released on Wednesday, likely will show that CPI inflation held steady at 2.4%--matching the consensus and the MPC's forecast--though the risks lie to the upside.

12 September 2017 CPI Inflation Likely Leapt in August and is Still Set to Peak at 3% Soon (Publication Centre)

The upward trend in CPI inflation likely reasserted itself in August, following a hiatus in the last two months due to the decline in oil prices.

12 June 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Took Another Big Step Towards Zero in May (Publication Centre)

We expect May's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that the headline rate of CPI inflation fell to a four-year low of 0.4% in May, from 0.8% in April.

15 February 2019 January Retail Sales Will Stop the Flow of Downbeat News (Publication Centre)

We expect the run of downbeat news on the U.K. economy to be punctuated today by January's retail sales figures.

15 January 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Fell in December to Within a Whisker of the 2% Target (Publication Centre)

Economists are evenly split on December's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, with half expecting CPI inflation to fall to 2.1%, from 2.3% in November, and the other half expecting a 2.2% print.

16 October 2017 Rate Hike Bets Likely Will Fade After September's CPI Data (Publication Centre)

September's consumer price figures likely will surprise to the downside, prompting markets to reassess their view that the MPC will almost certainly raise interest rates next month.

16 Mar 2020 The Inflation Outlook won't Stop the MPC from Easing Further (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus outbreak and its associated movements in asset prices have radically changed the outlook for CPI inflation, which ultimately the MPC is tasked with targeting.

16 July 2020 CPI Inflation Remains Set for a Near- Zero Rate Soon, Despite June's Rise (Publication Centre)

We still expect CPI inflation to decline a little further in the second half of this year, despite its surprise increase to 0.6% in June, from 0.5% in May.

17 Feb 2020 January CPI Inflation Set to Undershoot the MPC's Forecast (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation surprises look set to trigger larger- than-usual market reactions over the coming months, given that the MPC emphasised last month that it wants to see domestically-generated inflation rebound swiftly, after falling suddenly late last year, in order to justify keeping Bank Rate on hold.

17 November 2017 Respite for Consumers from Price Rises will be Short-Lived (Publication Centre)

October's retail sales figures confirm that consumers have adopted a more cautious mindset since the summer, when retail sales increased at a faster rate than incomes.

17 September 2018 CPI Inflation Likely Returned to its Downward Path in August (Publication Centre)

We expect August's consumer price figures, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation declined to 2.4%, from 2.5% in July, matching the consensus and the Bank of England's forecast.

17 Sept 2019 August CPI Inflation Likely Will Undershoot the Consensus (Publication Centre)

We expect August's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to reveal that CPI inflation dropped to 1.8% in August, from 2.1% in July, thereby undershooting the consensus, 1.9%.

18 February 2019 Steady Growth in Consumers' Spending will Keep GDP Edging Up (Publication Centre)

We became more confident last week in our call that GDP growth will hold up better than widely feared in the first half of 2019, following signs that consumers have maintained their happy-go-lucky mentality, despite the ongoing political crisis.

16 July 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Fell in June and Will Undershoot the Target in H2 (Publication Centre)

We expect June's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation fell to 1.9%, from 2.0% in May.

15 Nov 2019 The Current Soft Patch in Retail Sales won't Last Long (Publication Centre)

October's 0.1% month-to-month fall in retail sales volumes was disappointing, following substantial improvements in the CBI, BRC and BDO survey measures.

15 June 2018 May's Surge in Retail Sales is Just a Weather-Related Blip (Publication Centre)

The trend in retail sales no longer looks quite so flat, following yesterday's May report. The level of sales volumes in April was revised up by 0.3%.

15 November 2017 Too Soon to Claim Peak Inflation, But it Will Fall Swiftly in 2018 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at 3.0% in October, undershooting our forecast and the consensus by 0.1 percentage point and the MPC's forecast by 0.2pp.

15 November 2018 CPI Inflation is Set to Undershoot the 2% Target as Soon as Q1 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at 2.4% in October, undershooting the 2.5% consensus expectation and the MPC's forecast in this month's Inflation Report.

16 April 2018 CPI Inflation Likely Undershot the MPC's Forecast in March, Again (Publication Centre)

March's consumer prices figures, released on Wednesday, are even more important than usual, as they are the last to be published before the MPC's next meeting on May 10.

15 Oct 2019 Below-Consensus September CPI Won't Strengthen Case for Stimulus (Publication Centre)

We expect September's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation held steady at 1.7%, below the 1.8% consensus.

16 Aug 2019 Consumers Aren't Going to Blink as the Brexit Deadline Nears (Publication Centre)

July's retail sales figures--the first official data for Q3--provided a reassuring signal that consumers can be counted on to drive the economy as the Brexit deadline nears.

16 December 2016 Black Friday Sales Boom Likely will be Followed by a Bust (Publication Centre)

The remarkable recent strength in retail sales continued into November, with total sales volumes rising by 0.2% and sales ex-motor fuels up by 0.5%. Those numbers aren't spectacular but they have to be seen in the context of October's huge 1.9% jump in sales ex-motor fuel; usually, after such a big gain we'd expect a correction the following month.

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