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31 May 2019 The Economy Won't Be Knocked Off Course by Rising Household Saving (Publication Centre)

Households' willingness to save a smaller fraction of their incomes goes a long way to explaining why the U.K. economy hasn't lost too much momentum since the Brexit vote.

29 April 2019 Ten Reasons to Expect a Hawkish Nudge from the MPC this Week (Publication Centre)

The MPC likely will vote unanimously to keep Bank Rate at 0.75% on Thursday.

31 May. 2016 Can we Still be Confident that the Saving Rate Will Fall? (Publication Centre)

Europeans, who usually save more of their income than Americans, have spent all the windfall from falling gas prices. Americans have not. It is tempting, therefore, to argue that perhaps Americans have come to see the error of their low-saving ways, and are now seeking to emulate the behavior of high-saving Europeans. Undeniably, the plunge in gas prices has given Americans the opportunity to save more without making hard choices.

8 October 2018 Mortgage Refinancing won't be a Tailwind for the Economy Next Year (Publication Centre)

The process of refinancing existing mortgages at ever-lower interest rates has been a boon for the economy in recent years.

9 July 2019 It Won't Be Just "One and Done" for the MPC, in the Event of No-Deal (Publication Centre)

The sharp fall in markets' expectations for Bank Rate over the last month has partly reflected the perceived increase in the chance of a no-deal Brexit. Betting markets are pricing-in around a 30% chance of a no-deal departure before the end of this year, up from 10% shortly after the first Brexit deadline was missed.

24 July 2019 If a Downturn Materialises, Households Will Feel its Full Force (Publication Centre)

Our base case remains that the slowdown in quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to about zero in Q2 is just a blip, and that the economy will regain momentum in Q3 and sustain it well into 2020.

20 November 2018 The Housing Downturn won't Kill the Rest of the Economy, this is not 2008 (Publication Centre)

The media and markets are waking up to the idea that the housing market has peaked in the face of higher mortgage rates and slightly--so far--tighter lending standards.

13 June 2017 Debt-Fuelled Korean Consumption is at Risk as Rates Rise (Publication Centre)

When Park Geun-hye came to power in Korea 2013, it was to cheers of "economic democratisation". At the time, I wrote a report with a list of reforms that would be needed for Korea to "economically democratise".

15 March 2017 Low Mortgage Arrears Hide Rising Risks as the Economy Slows (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in households' income growth since the referendum has not pushed up mortgage default rates, so far. Employment grew by just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and 0.1% in Q4, well below the 0.5% average rate seen in the three years before the referendum.

16 January 2019 Markets' Medium-Term Expectations for RPI Inflation Look Too High (Publication Centre)

Swap markets currently price-in RPI inflation falling to 3.0% this time next year, from 3.2% in November, before recovering to 3.8% at the start of 2020.

18 September 2017 How Severely Would a Rate Hike Slow the Economy? (Publication Centre)

The MPC took an unprecedented step last week to pave the way for an interest rate rise.

1 September 2017 Interest Rate Changes Act Faster than the MPC's Hawks Argue (Publication Centre)

MPC member Michael Saunders, who has voted to raise interest rates at the last two MPC meetings, argued in a speech yesterday that tighter monetary policy is required now partly because it affects the economy with a long lag.

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