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China PMI chimes with our GDP downgrade last week. China's non-manufacturing PMI weakest on construction. Japan's MoF capex numbers point to Q4 GDP downgrade. Ignore the consensus-beating headline, Korean exports were abysmal in February, calendar effects aside. The virus now has infected Korea's PMI; expect business surveys to get a lot worse.
China's official non-manufacturing PMI rose further in May, hitting a four-month high of 53.6.
China's Caixin manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.6 in August, from July's 50.8. This clashed with the increase in the official PMI, though the moves in both indexes were modest.
The Fed's unscheduled 50bp cut on Tuesday opens up some space for Asian central banks to follow suit.
We've been surprised by the fast rate of Japanese GDP growth in the first half, though the Q1 pop merely was due to a plunge in imports.
Many analysts were alarmed earlier this week by news from across the pond that the U.S. treasury is planning to break the bank in the fight against Covid-19.
China's manufacturing PMIs put in a better performance in November, with the official gauge ticking up to 50.2 in November, from 49.3 in October, and the Caixin measure little changed, at 51.8, up from 51.7.
The PBoC and Ministry of Finance have been locked in a relatively public debate recently over which body should shoulder the burden of stimulating the economy as growth slows and trade tensions take their toll.
China's trade balance flipped to an unadjusted deficit of $7.1B in the first two months of the year, from a $47.2B surplus in December.
This week, Mexico's government unveiled its 2020 fiscal budget proposal.
Economic news last week in Mexico was net positive, as industrial production rose by a solid 6.9% month-to-month, following a 17.9% rebound in June, but the bigger picture is less encouraging.
Japan's labour data threw another January curve ball this year--last year it was wages--with a change in the standards for job openings.
Manufacturers in China are skating on thin ice. Construction is still doing most of the heavy lifting for China's non-manufacturing index. MoF data suggest that Japan probably avoided a technical recession in Q1, just. Korean exports stabilise in May, but Q2 still looks like a lost cause. Korea's PMI continued to sink in May, with no clear signs of a turnaround in export orders.
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