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The simultaneous weakening of the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys in recent months is one of the more disconcerting shifts in the recent macro data.
The trade war with China is not big enough or bad enough alone to push the U.S. economy into recession.
A grim-looking headline durable goods orders number for April seems inevitable today, given the troubles at Boeing.
The August NFIB survey of activity and sentiment at small businesses was soft, but it could have been worse.
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