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8 Dec. 2015 Productivity Growth Still too Weak to Prevent Inflation Rebound (Publication Centre)

By any yardstick, U.K. productivity growth has been terrible in recent years. Output per hour exceeded its pre-recession peak only in the second quarter of 2015, and it has grown at an average annual rate of just 0.6% this decade. U.S. productivity growth has been equally dismal since 2010. But the U.K.'s performance is more worrying, because the productivity slump during the recession suggested scope for a period of catch-up. In the U.S., by contrast, productivity surged during the recession as firms cut headcount sharply.

13 June 2018 Labour Data are Simply too Weak for the MPC to Hike in August (Publication Centre)

April's labour market data show that slack in the job market is no longer declining, while wage growth still isn't recovering. As a result, we no longer think that the MPC will raise Bank Rate in August and now expect the Committee to stand pat until the first half of 2019.

11 Sept 2019 The Labour Market no Longer Looks Bulletproof (Publication Centre)

A cursory glance at July's labour market report gives no cause for alarm. The headline, three-month average, unemployment rate returned to 3.8% in July, after edging up to 3.9% in June.

11 June 2018 Production and Labour Market Data will Hit Rate Hike Odds (Publication Centre)

The resolution of tensions in Italy and aboveconsensus U.K. PMIs for May last week persuaded investors that the MPC likely will press on and raise interest rates soon.

11 June 2018 China's Trade Surplus Should Start Trending up Again Later this Year (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus has been trending down in the last two years.

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