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25 April 2018 Korean Q1 GDP Growth will Bounce Back, A er Q4 Distortions (Publication Centre)

Korean real GDP growth--to be published on Thursday--should bounce back in Q1 to 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, after the 0.2% drop in Q4.

27 October 2017 Korean GDP Rebounds on Exports and Mr. Moon's Fiscal Spending (Publication Centre)

Korean real GDP growth rebounded to 1.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.6% in Q2. The main driver was exports, with government consumption also popping, and private consumption was a little faster than we were expecting.

28 July 2017 Korean GDP and Chinese Pro ts Con rm China is Slowing (Publication Centre)

Korean real GDP growth slumped in Q2 to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, from 1.1% in Q1, as both the main drivers--construction and exports--ran out of steam simultaneously. Construction investment grew by 1.0%, sharply slower than the 6.8% in Q1 and contributing just 0.2% to GDP growth in Q2, a turnaround from the 1.1 percentage point contribution in the first quarter.

29 March 2018 Korean GDP Should Bounce Back in Q1, but Faces Headwinds Thereafter (Publication Centre)

The picture for Korean quarterly real GDP growth in Q4 was unchanged in the final reading, published yesterday, showing a contraction of 0.2%, after the 1.4% jump in Q3.

14 June 2017 Korean Growth Probably Peaked in Q1. Construction to Slow (Publication Centre)

Construction accounted for the entire 1.1% quarter-to- quarter expansion of the Korean economy in Q1, but the sector is now set to slow.

26 January 2018 Korean Exports hit a Perfect Storm in Q4 but Should Rebound in H1 (Publication Centre)

Korean GDP unexpectedly declined in Q4, for the first time since the financial crisis, falling 0.2% quarter-on-quarter after a 1.5% jump in Q3.

13 September 2017 Korean Borrowing Begins to Recover, but the Fed isn't Done yet (Publication Centre)

Korean credit markets have begun tentatively to recover after the rise in global interest rates at the end of last year.

26 October 2018 Plunging Korean Investment Activity Cancels-out Gains Elsewhere in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Korea's GDP growth in Q3 was a miss. Quarter- on-quarter growth was unchanged at 0.6%, below the consensus for a 0.8% rise.

4 September 2018 Asian PMIs Signal Trade Spat Damage, Korean Uptick is Transitory (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.6 in August, from July's 50.8. This clashed with the increase in the official PMI, though the moves in both indexes were modest.

13 June 2017 Debt-Fuelled Korean Consumption is at Risk as Rates Rise (Publication Centre)

When Park Geun-hye came to power in Korea 2013, it was to cheers of "economic democratisation". At the time, I wrote a report with a list of reforms that would be needed for Korea to "economically democratise".

2 November 2018 Ignore the October Surge in Korean Exports, but Take Heed of Imports (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade data have been extremely volatile over the past two months, thanks to distortions caused by last year's odd holiday calendar.

22 Aug 2019 Korean Trade Shows that Japan's Curbs are Much Ado About Nothing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's partial trade data for Korea showed that the downturn in exports softened to -13.3% year-over-year in August from -13.8% in July, based on the 20-day gauge.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ does what it can to avoid more deeply negative yields. Korean inflation should peak this month

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korean inflation surprises to the upside in April. Manufacturing surveys in Korea are turning up.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs turn less grim, but look unsupported, for now. China's non-manufacturing PMI receives a one-off singles day boost. Japan's capex data suggests Q3 upgrade. Net trade is shaping up to be a drag on Q4 GDP, as Korean exports remained weak in November. Korea's exit from deflation is complete, thanks largely to more favourable base effects. Korea's PMI jumps in November... and that's before the likely sentiment boost from normalising ties with Japan.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Our caution over China's March industrial production spike was justified. Chinese retail sales growth hits lows. Chinese FAI growth suggests private sector policy loosening isn't working. Japan's M2 growth upturn is a welcome break, but needs to be sustained. Korean unemployment jumps in April, showing the limits of the government's hiring spree.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korean exports show no signs of additional pain from Japan's trade salvo. PPI deflation takes hold in Korea.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI was poised for major disappointment... the trade war impact is clear. Don't be fooled by the relative stability of China's non-manufacturing PMI. Japan's March unemployment uptick was early; April was payback. Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's industrial production ticks up after extreme weakness; don't hold your breath for the recovery. Japan's consumers in poor shape, but maybe it's not that bad. The upswing in Korean industrial production likely to take a breather this month. The BoK holds firm, despite rising calls for a rate cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin gauge still to register renewed tariff threat. Japan's Capex growth on borrowed time. Korean exports stumble in May, but Q2 is shaping up to be better than Q1. Korea's PMI for May highlights the still-huge downside risks facing exporters.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

The renewed trade war is unfortunate timing, as Korea exports are stabilising at the margins. Revised index shows that Korean PPI inflation hasn't been missing this year.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI edged up in July. Services in China are finally starting to feel the pinch. Korean IP looks poised for a stronger increase in July, notwithstanding Japan's export curbs.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

April wasn't so bad for Korean exports, which are starting to bottom out in real terms

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's PMI hit by renewed trade wars, while domestic demand shows signs of slowing. The fledgling recovery in Korean exports lost steam in June.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs suggest the private sector is recovering ahead of SoEs. China's non-manufacturing PMI again masks construction/services cross currents. Japan's industrial production continues to languish. OK so now Japanese households are front-loading spending. Korean IP corrects from the bumper July; the momentum from the Q2 recovery is waning.

3 October 2018 Chuseok Hit Clouds the End of Marginally Stronger Q3 in Korea (Publication Centre)

Korean industrial production surprised to the upside in August, according to data released yesterday.

23 January 2018 China's Demand for Foreign Goods Slows as Output Curbs Loosened? (Publication Centre)

Korean 20-day exports are volatile and often miss the mark with respect to the full-month print. But these data offer the month's first look at Asian trade, and we often find value in these early signs.

22 June 2018 Asian Data Point to Slowing World Trade Growth this Year (Publication Centre)

Korean trade activity is slowing.

2 May 2019 April Trade Data Point to a Potential V-Shaped Recovery for Korea in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Korean exports continued to fall year-over-year in April, but the story isn't as bleak as the headlines suggest.

4 January 2019 Poor End to 2018 Underscores the Hastiness of the Bank of Korea Hike (Publication Centre)

Korean hard data for December, so far, leave the door ajar for the possibility that the Bank of Korea will roll back its November hike sooner than we expect.

24 July 2017 Asian Trade Dragged Down by Chinese Slump (Publication Centre)

Korean exports are often a useful gauge of Asian and global trade; the country sits near the beginning of the global supply chain. It also happens to publish early in the data cycle and provides a measure of exports in the first 20 days of the month.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Tankan reinforces our impression of a nasty Q2. China's manufacturing PMIs show why the authorities are eager for a trade deal. China's non-manufacturing sector holds steady for now. Korean exports disappointed in June, but this probably is as bad as it will get. Ignore Korea's volatile PMI readings... sentiment is improving gradually.

4 Nov 2019 Korea's Export Slump has Bottomed Out... Global Trade will Follow Suit (Publication Centre)

The downturn in global trade looks set to turn a corner, at least judging by the outlook for Korean exports, which are a key bellwether.

27 April 2018 Korean GDP Rebounds Unspectacularly after Q4 Distortions (Publication Centre)

Korean real GDP growth rebounded to 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, after GDP fell 0.2% in Q4. Growth in Q4 was hit by distortions, thanks to a long holiday in October, which normally falls in September.

27 July 2018 Q2 Slump in Korean Investment will Elicit More Accommodative Policy (Publication Centre)

Korean GDP data for Q2, released yesterday, were largely in line with our expectations, in that net exports cushioned softer domestic demand.

3 Jan 2020 Korean Two-Way Trade Ends 2019 on a High Note, Salvaging Q4 (Publication Centre)

Korean trade ended the year strongly, salvaging what was shaping up as a dull fourth quarter for the economy.

24 October 2018 Korea's Stronger Q3 Growth Likely due to Falling Imports, Ominously (Publication Centre)

Korea's preliminary GDP report for Q3 will be released tomorrow.

24 May 2018 If the BoK Lacks the Stamina to Hike this Week, 2018 Could be Barren (Publication Centre)

Korea's 20-day export growth came in weaker than we anticipated earlier this week. Granted, year-over- year growth rebounded to 14.8% in May, from 8.3% in April.

25 Sept 2019 Japan's September PMI Points to Strong Q3 Deterioration Thereafter (Publication Centre)

Japan's September PMI report showed some slippage, but overall, it suggests that GDP growth in Q3 was a little stronger than the 0.3% quarter- on-quarter rate in Q2.

28 February 2018 The BoK is in Wait-And-See Mode, Consumer Confidence Dented (Publication Centre)

Data and events have gone against the idea of further BoK policy normalisation since the November hike.

3 April 2019 An Abysmal February will Destroy Q1 GDP Growth in Korea (Publication Centre)

Don't expect a pretty picture when Korea's Q1 GDP report appears in the last week of April.

28 January 2019 PBoC CBSs: Not Quite QE, but Potentially a Useful Step (Publication Centre)

Last week the Chinese authorities issued a series of new measures to help with bank recapitalisation, and, we think, to supplement interbank liquidity.

24 June 2019 Japan's CPI Inflation has Peaked but the BoJ isn't Bothered (Publication Centre)

Japan's national CPI inflation has peaked, falling to 0.7% in May from 0.9% in April.

27 June 2018 China Turns to the RRR to Sustain the Debt Clean-up Amid Fed Hikes (Publication Centre)

In yesterday's Monitor, we laid out the prime causes of China's weekend announcement, cutting the reserve requirement ratio.

26 June 2017 Japan Surprises on the Upside as the Economy Accelerates into Q2 (Publication Centre)

Japanese data continue to come in strongly for the second quarter. The manufacturing PMI points to continued sturdy growth, despite the headline index dipping to 52.0 in June from 53.1 in May. The average for Q2 overall was 52.6, almost unchanged from Q1's 52.8, signalling that manufacturing output growth has maintained its recent rate of growth.

22 November 2018 Korea's Export Slump in November Points to Further Global Softness (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade figures for the first 20 days of November, published yesterday, gave the first real glimpse in a long time of how its exporters are truly performing.

22 May 2019 Not Out of the Woods, but Korea is Signalling a U-Turn in World Trade (Publication Centre)

The latest trade data from Korea underscore the unfortunate timing of the resumption of the U.S.-China tit-for-tat tariff war.

22 January 2018 China Growth Met Target Before Q4, Environmental Targets hit in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The China Daily ran an article entitled "Beijing, nation get breath of fresh air" on the day Chinese GDP figures were published last week, underlining where the authorities' priorities now lie.

22 February 2019 The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Japan's Economy from Q4 to Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Japanese activity data were grim.

22 Nov 2019 China's Exit from PPI Deflation Next Year will be Short-Lived (Publication Centre)

The PBoC's quarterly monetary policy report seemed relatively sanguine on the question of PPI deflation, attributing it mainly to base effects--not entirely fairly--and suggesting that inflation will soon return.

3 December 2018 The Bank of Korea has Come to the End of its Tightening Cycle (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Korea finally pulled the trigger, raising its base rate to 1.75% at its meeting on Friday. After a year of will-they-or-won't-they, five of the Monetary Policy Board's seven members voted to add another 25 basis points to their previous hike twelve months ago.

2 Jan 2020 China's PMIs Highlight Weakening Non-manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 50.2 in December, marking a weak end to the year. But it could have been worse; we had been worried that the return to above-50 territory in November had been boosted by temporary factors. December's print allays some of those fears.

22 November 2017 LEIs Point to Stabilising Japanese Domestic Demand Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Japan's all-industry activity index fell 0.5% month-on- month in September after a 0.2% rise in August. Construction activity continued to plummet, with the subindex dropping 2.3%, after a 2.2% fall in August.

2 October 2017 Japanese CPI Inflation Still led by Food and Energy, for now (Publication Centre)

Japanese CPI inflation jumped to 0.7% in August from 0.4% in July. The ris e in prices over the last year, however, was mainly driven by food and energy.

23 February 2018 PBoC Fights Back Against RMB Strength but BoJ Le to Jawbone (Publication Centre)

The PBoC managed to keep interest rates well- anchored around the Chinese New Year holiday, when volatility is often elevated.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's services PMI points to Q2 GDP contraction. China's Caixin services PMI highlights the reasons for official concern over employment. Korea's current account slips into deficit for the first time since 2012.

5 November 2018 China's Role in Global Rates over the Next 10 Years (Publication Centre)

In recent months we've been thinking more deeply about the themes for the next economic cycle for China, and its impact on the world.

5 December 2017 Japan: QQE is Dead, Long Live YCC... For Now (Publication Centre)

Japan's monetary base growth has continued to slow, to 13.2% year-over-year in November from 14.5% in October.

4 June 2019 The Official PMI has it Right Tariff hit has Derailed China's Trade Recovery (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI was steady in May, at 50.2, in contrast to the official gauge published on Friday, which dropped to 49.5, from April's 50.2.

2 February 2018 Caixin PMI will Fall in February, Though Activity will Strengthen (Publication Centre)

Holiday effects are tedious and you are going to hear us talking about them until the March data come through.

6 Feb 2020 Korea's Trade Data for January Show a Modest Virus Hit, For Now (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade data for January provided the first real glimpse of the potential hit to international flows from the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.

9 Sept 2019 China's RRR cut Helps Credit Supply but Demand Still Wanting (Publication Centre)

The PBoC cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio late on Friday--as signalled at last Wednesday's State Council meeting--by 0.5 percentage points, to be implemented from September 16.

7 February 2019 Weakness in Exports Still Weighs on German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand for German manufacturing goods remained subdued at the end of Q4.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's stable unemployment rate belies underlying weakness. Tokyo energy inflation turns the corner. Sales tax preparations breathe life into Japanese production in May... if only temporarily. Korea's IP plunge in May shows why Japan can't rest on its laurels.

4 June 2018 Chinese PPI Inflation is Set to Head Higher, it will be Short-lived (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing headline was unremarkable, but the input price index signals that PPI inflation is set to rise again in May, to 4.0%-plus, from 3.4% in April.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Headline GDP growth in Q3 was unchanged, but the revised details mostly were positive. BoJ in a holding pattern on aggregate JGB purchases; focus on curve steepening

30 April 2019 Q1 Data have Spooked Japanese Policymakers is it Temporary (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q1 is coming more sharply into focus.

3 October 2017 Manufacturing Powers Ahead, Supported by External Demand (Publication Centre)

The Asian PMIs point to a strengthening manufacturing sector in September but external demand is the driver.

3 Oct 2019 Don't Expect the Bank of Korea to Flinch from this Week's Soft Data (Publication Centre)

This week's main economic data from Korea--the last batch before the BoK meets on the 16th--missed consensus expectations, further fuelling speculation that it will cut rates for a second time, after pausing in August.

4 Dec 2019 Net Trade will Hit Korea's Q4 GDP, Cancelling-out a Domestic Bounce (Publication Centre)

Korea's final GDP report for the third quarter confirmed the economy's growth slowdown to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, following the 1.0% bounce-back in Q2.

4 December 2017 Japan's Labour Market is Already Tight, and Getting Tighter (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour market is already tight, but last week's data suggest it is set to tighten further.

4 February 2019 Unboxing--and Making Sense--of the Collapse in China's Caixin PMI (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI for January was grim, indicating that China's start to the year wasn't as benign as the official surveys suggested.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korea's Q1 GDP downgrade will fuel calls for a rate cut. CPI inflation in Korea should soon peak out. Ignore the uptick in Japanese monetary base; it's a one off.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour market remains tight but will face persistent slackening from here. Caixin manufacturing on a tear. In the end, CPI deflation in Korea lasted just one month. October probably was the y/y trough in Korea's export slump. Business sentiment in Korea is recovering... albeit only slowly.

3 January 2018 Caixin PMI Overstates Momentum, but Activity will Strengthen in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI picked up to 51.5 in December from 50.8 in November. But the jump looks erratic and we expect it to correct in January.

11 July 2018 China's Officials Aren't Worried About the Uptick in PPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

China's PPI inflation rose again in June, to 4.7%, from 4.1% in May.

13 July 2018 China's Official Real GDP Growth will Paint a Muddled Picture for Q2 (Publication Centre)

Official, real GDP growth was low in Q1, at 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, down from 1.6% in Q4.

13 July 2017 Japanese PPI Inflation to Decelerate, but Only Modestly (Publication Centre)

Japan's producer price inflation levelled off in June and, for now, both commodity prices and currency moves in the first half imply that inflation should fall in the second half.

13 March 2018 Scandals Could Take Down Abe Would Abenomics Survive (Publication Centre)

Japan's Ministry of Finance yesterday admitted falsifying documents submitted to the country's parliament during a corruption probe last year.

13 September 2018 China's Money Headlines Tell an Old Story Conditions are Loosening (Publication Centre)

China's M2 growth slowed to 8.2% year-over-year in August, from 8.5% in July

14 Aug 2019 Japanese Policymakers Shouldn't take Domestic Demand For Granted (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q2 GDP was driven by the twin pillars of private consumption and capex.

2 August 2017 Inflation to Erode Chinese Demand in the Second Half (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI rebounded to 51.1 in July from 50.4 in June, soundly beating the consensus for no change. The PMIs are seasonally adjusted but the data are much less volatile on our adjustment model. On our adjustment, the headline has averaged 50.9 so far this year, modestly higher than in the second half of last year.

10 Oct 2019 A Sovereignty Threat is a Deal-breaker for China (Publication Centre)

Since the protests in Hong Kong began, we've become increasingly convinced that China is backing away from a comprehensive trade deal with Mr. Trump.

1 August 2017 Chinese Second Half Looking Increasingly Stagflationary (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI, published on Monday, implies the industrial complex has maintained momentum going into Q3. The official manufacturing PMI moderated slightly to 51.4 in July from 51.7 in June. The July reading was unchanged from the average in Q2 and only modestly down from the 51.6 in Q1.

1 June 2018 China's PMIs Signal Another Rise in PPI In ation in May (Publication Centre)

The return of Chinese PPI inflation in 2016 helped to stabilise equities after the boom-bust of the previous year.

1 March 2019 China's Latest PMIs Give no Reason for Hope Trade Partners Beware (Publication Centre)

Chinese data still are in the midst of Lunar New Year-related noise, so take February's PMIs with a pinch of salt, even though they ostensibly are adjusted for seasonal effects.

10 August 2017 Chinese Producer Price Inflation is Proving Sticky (Publication Centre)

Chinese PPI inflation was unchanged at 5.5% in July; it had been expected to rise modestly. Officially, inflation peaked at 7.8% in February, but we think this peak was artificially high, thanks to seasonal effects. The slowing in PPI inflation since the peak appears to suggest that monthly price gains have slowed sharply. We find little evidence to support this.

14 August 2017 China's Slowdown Surprised Japan, Inventories to Boost Q2 GDP (Publication Centre)

Japanese domestic demand probably strengthened in Q2, with both private consumption and fixed investment accelerating. Trade and inventories are the key swing components for GDP growth.

11 April 2019 Korea's March Jobs Report will Help the BoK Stave off Calls for Cuts (Publication Centre)

Korea's labour market took an overdue breather in March after an extremely volatile start to the year.

19 February 2019 Expect to See a Further Softening in Asian Price Data this Friday (Publication Centre)

A slew of Asian price numbers are due this Friday, and they will all likely show that price gains softened further in January.

19 Aug 2019 The BoJ will Continue to Cross its Fingers on Yield Curve Inversion (Publication Centre)

An inverted curve is a widely recognised signal that a recession is around the corner, though it's worth remembering that the lags tend to be long.

19 July 2018 China's Domestic Activity Likely Recovered in Q2 (Publication Centre)

China's official GDP data, published on Monday, showed year-over-year growth edging down to 6.7% in Q2, from 6.8% in Q1.

19 October 2018 The Bank of Korea Continues to Circle in a Holding Pattern (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday left its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.50%.

14 March 2019 Korea's Labour Market Data Throw Another Curveball (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate tumbled to 3.7% in February, after the leap to 4.4% in January.

18 June 2018 When is a BoJ Dove not a Dove? When the Experiment has Failed (Publication Centre)

Governor Kuroda has sounded increasingly dovish recently.

18 Dec 2019 The BoJ will be Happy to Focus on the Positives this Thursday (Publication Centre)

The BoJ is likely to stay on hold this week for all its main policy settings.

15 October 2018 Chinese Trade: Import from Anywhere but the U.S. (Publication Centre)

China's September trade numbers show that, far from reducing the surplus with the U.S., the trade wars so far have pushed it up to a new record.

15 January 2019 What can we Learn from the Weak EZ Manufacturing Data (Publication Centre)

Last week's horrible manufacturing data in the major EZ economies had already warned investors that yesterday's industrial production report for the zone as a whole would be one to forget.

16 Dec 2019 "Phase One" Picked Low-Hanging Fruit... Now for the Hard Part (Publication Centre)

ate last week, China and the U.S. reached an agreement, averting the planned U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese consumer goods that were slated to be imposed on December 15.

17 Dec 2019 Signs of Stabilisation in Chinese Data, but not yet a Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's activity data outperformed expectations in November.

21 November 2018 Korean PPI Points to Cascading Drops in Inflation Elsewhere in Asia (Publication Centre)

PPI inflation in Korea slowed sharply in October, to a five-month low of 2.2%, from 2.7% in September.

25 July 2017 Korean Q2 GDP Growth to Provide Evidence of Chinese Slowdown (Publication Centre)

After strong real GDP growth in Q1, China commentators called the peak, claiming that growth would slow for the rest of 2017.

5 September 2018 Order Books Point to a Q3 Rebound in Korean Construction Activity (Publication Centre)

Headline GDP growth in Korea was revised down, to a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, from 0.7% in the preliminary report.

5 September 2017 Geopolitical Tensions Hold Sway, the Yen is Only a Partial Safe Haven (Publication Centre)

he frequency of North Korean missile tests and attention-grabbing moves has increased markedly in recent months. Media reports now suggest that North Korea is preparing to follow its weekend nuclear test with another intercontinental ballistic missile test, in an unprecedented show of technological advancement.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Tankan points to a q/q contraction for capex in Q3, but GDP growth overall will stay strong. Japan's unemployment steady, but details bode ill for Q4. September's full-month data dispel some export worries in Korea; expect a Q3 lift from net trade. Korea's PMI pours cold water on the spectacular jobs report for August. September is as bad as it gets for Korean CPI deflation.

14 December 2017 Korea's Public Sector Jobs Drive Fizzles out. BoK to Hike Anyway (Publication Centre)

The Korean unemployment rate edged back up to 3.7% in November from October's 3.6%. Young graduates--the usual suspects--accounted for most of the rise.

*May 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China recovery falters...and now tariffs...Japan's Q1 gdp growth was a mirage; Korean exports are turning the corner, just...India's status quo vote won't turn growth around

*February 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Expect a Rare Q/Q Fall in Chinese GDP In Q1...A Technical Recession In Japan is on the Cards...The Real Hit to Korean Trade will Start This Month...Post-Virus in Oil Will Help India's Recovery

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

August plunge in Korean unemployment is unsustainable, but should effectively rule out another BoK cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Don't expect the BoK to follow the BoJ's unorthodoxy in the foreseeable future. The upward correction in Korean unemployment has much more room to run.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Non-core base effects push Korean CPI inflation to a 14-month high in January. Monetary base data show BoJ back-peddling against virus.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ remains in an alternate reality in order to avoid a rate cut, underlining its concerns over damage to the financial sector. Chances of a serious PBoC blunder are rising. No "Phase 1" sentiment lift for Chinese manufacturers. A sharp fall in China's official services gauge was due. This probably is as good as it'll get for Japanese industrial production. Korean industrial production remains volatile, but the trend is decisively up.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs are not yet fully picking up the coronavirus; China's non-manufacturing PMI lifted by local government spending; not yet hit by the virus; Japan's job postings still suggest the unemployment rate is unsustainably low; Japan's national inflation has less far to fall than Tokyo's; The coronavirus will delay the return of Japanese retail sales to pre-tax hike levels; Investment goods drive Japan's IP rebound in December; no real support now for consumer goods production; December probably is as good as it will get for Korean industrial production, for now

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Further weakness to come for Japan's manufacturing PMI. First services hit from the coronavirus is damning. Japan's all-industry activity index suggests the 2019 tax hike was as bad as 2014. A drop in food inflation was enough to offset lagged oil pressures in Japan's January CPI. Ignore the headline; the coronavirus is now hurting Korean exports.

*December 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Is Stabilising, But Not Yet Recovering...Japan's Fiscal Stimulus Faces Capacity Constraints...No New Year Shock This Time For Korean Workers..India's Q3 Wasn;t A Disaster; The RBI Is Done Easing

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