Pantheon Macroeconomics - Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

Search Results: 385
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

Sorry, but our website is best viewed on a device with a screen width greater than 320px. You can contact us at: info@pantheonmacro.com.

Website Search

Search Results

385 matches for " korea":

24 July 2020 Korea's Abysmal Q2 Likely was the Low, but the Recovery is Fragile (Publication Centre)

Korea's GDP report for the second quarter was a huge let-down.

24 Apr 2020 Korea's Covid-19 Slump Will Evolve From Domestic- to Trade-Led in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Korean GDP contracted by 1.4% quarter-on- quarter in Q1, erasing the 1.3% jump at the end of last year. The pullback was sharper than we expected, with the cliff-edge drop in private consumption, in particular, catching us by surprise.

23 January 2019 Ignore Korea's Consensus-Beating Q4 GDP Print it's not Sustainable (Publication Centre)

Korea's preliminary Q4 GDP report was stronger than nearly all forecasters, including ourselves, expected.

5 May 2020 Covid Outbreak Over, but no Signs of a Turnaround in Korean Surveys (Publication Centre)

Korea's manufacturing PMI fell for a fourth straight month in April, dropping to 41.6, which is the lowest reading since January 2009.

24 October 2018 Korea's Stronger Q3 Growth Likely due to Falling Imports, Ominously (Publication Centre)

Korea's preliminary GDP report for Q3 will be released tomorrow.

25 January 2019 Reality will Hit the Bank of Korea Hard Expect a Year-Long Pause (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday left its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.75%, at its first meeting of the year.

4 Nov 2019 Korea's Export Slump has Bottomed Out... Global Trade will Follow Suit (Publication Centre)

The downturn in global trade looks set to turn a corner, at least judging by the outlook for Korean exports, which are a key bellwether.

25 April 2018 Korean Q1 GDP Growth will Bounce Back, A er Q4 Distortions (Publication Centre)

Korean real GDP growth--to be published on Thursday--should bounce back in Q1 to 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, after the 0.2% drop in Q4.

5 September 2018 Order Books Point to a Q3 Rebound in Korean Construction Activity (Publication Centre)

Headline GDP growth in Korea was revised down, to a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, from 0.7% in the preliminary report.

23 Jan 2020 Korea's Scorching Q4 GDP will be Downgraded, but the Recovery is On (Publication Centre)

GDP growth in Korea surprised to the upside in the fourth quarter, with the economy expanding by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, three times as fast as in Q3, and the biggest increase in nine quarters.

22 Aug 2019 Korean Trade Shows that Japan's Curbs are Much Ado About Nothing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's partial trade data for Korea showed that the downturn in exports softened to -13.3% year-over-year in August from -13.8% in July, based on the 20-day gauge.

22 Apr 2020 Contraction is Certain, but Look for Korea's Q1 GDP Report to Surprise (Publication Centre)

Tomorrow's Q1 GDP report for Korea has a wider spread of forecasts than usual, reflecting Covid-19's uneven hit to the economy.

21 November 2018 Korean PPI Points to Cascading Drops in Inflation Elsewhere in Asia (Publication Centre)

PPI inflation in Korea slowed sharply in October, to a five-month low of 2.2%, from 2.7% in September.

22 July 2020 Don't Fret About the New Weakness in Korea's Partial Trade Data (Publication Centre)

Korea's fledgling export recovery seemingly hit a roadblock this month.

6 Mar 2020 Bad to Worse for Korea's Q1, but MERS Shows Rebound Potential (Publication Centre)

The rapid escalation of Covid-19 cases in Korea in recent weeks has broadened the likely damage to the economy this quarter.

22 November 2018 Korea's Export Slump in November Points to Further Global Softness (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade figures for the first 20 days of November, published yesterday, gave the first real glimpse in a long time of how its exporters are truly performing.

22 May 2019 Not Out of the Woods, but Korea is Signalling a U-Turn in World Trade (Publication Centre)

The latest trade data from Korea underscore the unfortunate timing of the resumption of the U.S.-China tit-for-tat tariff war.

6 Feb 2020 Korea's Trade Data for January Show a Modest Virus Hit, For Now (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade data for January provided the first real glimpse of the potential hit to international flows from the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.

26 January 2018 Korean Exports hit a Perfect Storm in Q4 but Should Rebound in H1 (Publication Centre)

Korean GDP unexpectedly declined in Q4, for the first time since the financial crisis, falling 0.2% quarter-on-quarter after a 1.5% jump in Q3.

26 October 2018 Plunging Korean Investment Activity Cancels-out Gains Elsewhere in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Korea's GDP growth in Q3 was a miss. Quarter- on-quarter growth was unchanged at 0.6%, below the consensus for a 0.8% rise.

3 Jan 2020 Korean Two-Way Trade Ends 2019 on a High Note, Salvaging Q4 (Publication Centre)

Korean trade ended the year strongly, salvaging what was shaping up as a dull fourth quarter for the economy.

3 December 2018 The Bank of Korea has Come to the End of its Tightening Cycle (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Korea finally pulled the trigger, raising its base rate to 1.75% at its meeting on Friday. After a year of will-they-or-won't-they, five of the Monetary Policy Board's seven members voted to add another 25 basis points to their previous hike twelve months ago.

3 April 2019 An Abysmal February will Destroy Q1 GDP Growth in Korea (Publication Centre)

Don't expect a pretty picture when Korea's Q1 GDP report appears in the last week of April.

3 July 2020 Have Consumers Saved Korea from a Technical Recession (Publication Centre)

The end of Korea's first Covid-19 wave, coupled with the government's economic support measures, has been a boon for the retail industry.

3 June 2020 Korean Exports Stabilised in May, but Q2 will Still be a Wash Out (Publication Centre)

Korea's economy is shaping up largely in line with our expectations for the second quarter, with private consumption recovering, but exports and investment tanking.

30 Aug 2019 Trade Spats are Starting to Hurt Business Sentiment in Korea (Publication Centre)

The recent spate of manufacturing business survey indices from Korea show that sentiment is deteriorating in the wake of its trade spat with Japan and the re-intensification of U.S.-China tensions.

3 October 2018 Chuseok Hit Clouds the End of Marginally Stronger Q3 in Korea (Publication Centre)

Korean industrial production surprised to the upside in August, according to data released yesterday.

3 Oct 2019 Don't Expect the Bank of Korea to Flinch from this Week's Soft Data (Publication Centre)

This week's main economic data from Korea--the last batch before the BoK meets on the 16th--missed consensus expectations, further fuelling speculation that it will cut rates for a second time, after pausing in August.

29 November 2018 We're Holding our Non-Consensus View for no Bank of Korea Hike (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea will tomorrow hold its final meeting for the year.

31 Jan 2020 Ignore Korea's Upbeat Surveys: a Coronavirus Hit is Looming (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Korea's two main monthly economic surveys were very perky in January.

4 January 2019 Poor End to 2018 Underscores the Hastiness of the Bank of Korea Hike (Publication Centre)

Korean hard data for December, so far, leave the door ajar for the possibility that the Bank of Korea will roll back its November hike sooner than we expect.

4 May 2020 Korea's First Deficit in Eight Years Presages the Trade-Driven Q2 Hit (Publication Centre)

Korean exports hit a brick wall in April, unsurprisingly, as lockdowns across the non- China world dealt a body blow to demand.

27 April 2018 Korean GDP Rebounds Unspectacularly after Q4 Distortions (Publication Centre)

Korean real GDP growth rebounded to 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, after GDP fell 0.2% in Q4. Growth in Q4 was hit by distortions, thanks to a long holiday in October, which normally falls in September.

27 October 2017 Korean GDP Rebounds on Exports and Mr. Moon's Fiscal Spending (Publication Centre)

Korean real GDP growth rebounded to 1.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.6% in Q2. The main driver was exports, with government consumption also popping, and private consumption was a little faster than we were expecting.

28 July 2017 Korean GDP and Chinese Pro ts Con rm China is Slowing (Publication Centre)

Korean real GDP growth slumped in Q2 to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, from 1.1% in Q1, as both the main drivers--construction and exports--ran out of steam simultaneously. Construction investment grew by 1.0%, sharply slower than the 6.8% in Q1 and contributing just 0.2% to GDP growth in Q2, a turnaround from the 1.1 percentage point contribution in the first quarter.

4 Dec 2019 Net Trade will Hit Korea's Q4 GDP, Cancelling-out a Domestic Bounce (Publication Centre)

Korea's final GDP report for the third quarter confirmed the economy's growth slowdown to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, following the 1.0% bounce-back in Q2.

29 March 2018 Korean GDP Should Bounce Back in Q1, but Faces Headwinds Thereafter (Publication Centre)

The picture for Korean quarterly real GDP growth in Q4 was unchanged in the final reading, published yesterday, showing a contraction of 0.2%, after the 1.4% jump in Q3.

29 June 2020 Korea's Rekindling Housing Market Should Keep the BoK Disciplined (Publication Centre)

Korea's government is mulling a further tightening of borrowing rules to mitigate the risks of an overheated property market.

30 July 2020 No 2nd Wave in Korea to Derail the Recovery in Consumer Confidence (Publication Centre)

The recovery of consumer confidence in Korea remains undeterred by the lingering risk of a second wave.

20 July 2020 Is the Bank of Korea's Easing Cycle Over? Not Quite (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea voted unanimously last week to keep the benchmark base rate unchanged, at 0.50%.

13 September 2017 Korean Borrowing Begins to Recover, but the Fed isn't Done yet (Publication Centre)

Korean credit markets have begun tentatively to recover after the rise in global interest rates at the end of last year.

14 June 2017 Korean Growth Probably Peaked in Q1. Construction to Slow (Publication Centre)

Construction accounted for the entire 1.1% quarter-to- quarter expansion of the Korean economy in Q1, but the sector is now set to slow.

14 March 2019 Korea's Labour Market Data Throw Another Curveball (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate tumbled to 3.7% in February, after the leap to 4.4% in January.

13 Sept 2019 Korea's Jobs Surprise... the Higher they Rise, the Harder they Fall (Publication Centre)

Korea's jobs report for August was a stonker, with unemployment plunging to 3.1%, from 4.0% in July, marking the lowest rate in more than five years.

2 November 2018 Ignore the October Surge in Korean Exports, but Take Heed of Imports (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade data have been extremely volatile over the past two months, thanks to distortions caused by last year's odd holiday calendar.

11 April 2019 Korea's March Jobs Report will Help the BoK Stave off Calls for Cuts (Publication Centre)

Korea's labour market took an overdue breather in March after an extremely volatile start to the year.

12 October 2018 Sticking to our Call for the Bank of Korea to Remain on Hold (Publication Centre)

The Board of the Bank of Korea will meet again in less than a week's time for this year's penultimate meeting.

13 June 2017 Debt-Fuelled Korean Consumption is at Risk as Rates Rise (Publication Centre)

When Park Geun-hye came to power in Korea 2013, it was to cheers of "economic democratisation". At the time, I wrote a report with a list of reforms that would be needed for Korea to "economically democratise".

ASIA Datanote: Exports, March, Korea (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the headline, Korean exports rebounded strongly in March, salvaging Q1

14 December 2017 Korea's Public Sector Jobs Drive Fizzles out. BoK to Hike Anyway (Publication Centre)

The Korean unemployment rate edged back up to 3.7% in November from October's 3.6%. Young graduates--the usual suspects--accounted for most of the rise.

7 March 2019 Monthly Data Shed Light on Korea's Strong Q4, but Q1 is Looking Poor (Publication Centre)

Korea's final GDP report for Q4 was little changed, in the end.

19 October 2018 The Bank of Korea Continues to Circle in a Holding Pattern (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday left its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.50%.

2 August 2018 The Door for a Bank of Korea Rate Hike in August Closes Further (Publication Centre)

The past two days have seen a slew of data that should keep the hawks in the Bank of Korea at bay during the Board's meeting at the end of this month.

9 Mar 2020 Global Virus Cases Accelerating, but China and Korea Show it's Beatable (Publication Centre)

A third wave of Covid-19 outbreaks is now underway. The first, in China, is now under control, and the rate of increase of cases in South Korea has dropped sharply. The other second wave countries, Italy and Iran, are still struggling.

2 May 2019 April Trade Data Point to a Potential V-Shaped Recovery for Korea in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Korean exports continued to fall year-over-year in April, but the story isn't as bleak as the headlines suggest.

19 November 2018 Unemployment in Korea will Remain High, Despite Moon's New Team (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate fell for a second straight month in October, inching down to 3.9%, from 4.0% in September.

7 February 2019 Korea's December was Good, not Great Expect Revisions to Q4 GDP (Publication Centre)

Following the publication of Korea's preliminary Q4 GDP report last month--see here--we said the consensus-beating print would be susceptible to downgrades, unless the economy had a miraculous end to 2018

17 Oct 2019 Korea's Q3 GDP Report to Highlight the Futility of the BoK's Second Cut (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea voted yesterday to lower its policy base rate to 1.25%, from 1.50%.

4 September 2018 Asian PMIs Signal Trade Spat Damage, Korean Uptick is Transitory (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.6 in August, from July's 50.8. This clashed with the increase in the official PMI, though the moves in both indexes were modest.

28 Feb 2020 The Bank of Korea Hangs Tough, Targeted Measures Only for Now (Publication Centre)

The BoK surprised markets and commentators by keeping rates unchanged at 1.25% yesterday, rather than cutting to 1.0%.

25 July 2017 Korean Q2 GDP Growth to Provide Evidence of Chinese Slowdown (Publication Centre)

After strong real GDP growth in Q1, China commentators called the peak, claiming that growth would slow for the rest of 2017.

7 December 2017 China Regulates in an Attempt to Avoid a Korea-style Credit Spiral (Publication Centre)

China last week banned unlicensed micro-lending and put a ceiling on borrowing costs for the sector, in an effort to curtail the spiralling of consumer credit.

Asia Datanote 20-Day Exports, Korea, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the headline; the details weren't that bad.

Asia Datanote Consumer Prices, Korea, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The lagged oil drag is now receding

Asia Datanote Bank of Korea Decision 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The Board held, but Governor Lee's comments suggest it should've cut.

24 July 2018 GDP Growth in Korea Likely Slipped in Q2, on Cooler Domestic Demand (Publication Centre)

GDP data for Q2 are due July 26; we expect the report to show a marginal dip in growth, to a seasonally adjusted 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, from 1.0% in Q1.

20 Mar 2020 Health Check for the Rest of Asia... Downgrades for Korea and India (Publication Centre)

Brace yourselves; GDP growth forecasts are being slashed left and right, as our colleagues take stock of the economic damage Covid-19 likely will inflict in the U.S. and across Europe, where outbreaks and containment measures have escalated significantly.

Asia Datanote: CPI, Korea, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit from oil has just started; deflation is imminent.

Asia Datanote: Bank of Korea Decision May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Expect one more cut, as the BoK mulls implicit forms of QE and YCC

Asia Datanote: Exports, Korea, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lockdowns in Europe and the U.S. knock out exports

Asia Datanote: Exports, Korea, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, but Q2 still looks like a lost cause

14 January 2019 Japan's Current Account Surplus Won't Keep Falling Korea's Will (Publication Centre)

Japan's unadjusted current account surplus fell sharply in November, to ¥757B, from ¥1,310B in October.

Asia Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: A grim start to Q2, as developed world demand collapses

Asia Datanote Exports, Korea, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Expect a bumpy recovery in Q3

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was due a correction. Korea's PMI closes out the year strong, chiming with December's punchy trade data.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's firms are done hiring. Tokyo inflation points to uptick in national gauge, driven by non-core effects. Japan's start to Q4 goes from bad to worse, as industrial production tanks in October. Still far too soon to call time on Korea's IP recovery, despite the October setback. Governor Lee attempts to manage 2020 expectations, as the BoK stands pat after the October cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

Korean IP was due a bounce after February's sourcing woes... that will pale in comparison to the April hit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

PBoC rate cut still on the tame side but more is coming, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI yet to see virus damage, China's profits better than the headline suggests going into the coronavirus hit, Early signs of coronavirus damage in Korea's trade data, Surge in Korea's manufacturing PMI comes to a stop in January

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's stable unemployment rate belies underlying weakness. Tokyo energy inflation turns the corner. Sales tax preparations breathe life into Japanese production in May... if only temporarily. Korea's IP plunge in May shows why Japan can't rest on its laurels.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin gauge still to register renewed tariff threat. Japan's Capex growth on borrowed time. Korean exports stumble in May, but Q2 is shaping up to be better than Q1. Korea's PMI for May highlights the still-huge downside risks facing exporters.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Korea's consensus-beating preliminary Q4 GDP print is susceptible to a downgrade

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's PMI hit by renewed trade wars, while domestic demand shows signs of slowing. The fledgling recovery in Korean exports lost steam in June.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

The renewed trade war is unfortunate timing, as Korea exports are stabilising at the margins. Revised index shows that Korean PPI inflation hasn't been missing this year.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade balance should recover as domestic weakness sets in; Japan's manufacturing PMI undermines H2 recovery hopes; Japan's services PMI paints a damning picture of Q2; Korea's export recovery from the April low will be more gradual than the descent; A lot more downside left for PPI deflation in Korea before Q3 trough

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Non-core crosscurrents in Japanese CPI cancelled each other out in June. Ignore the headline... The details of Korea's 20-day export in July weren't that bad. The end is in sight for PPI deflation in Korea.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

The BoJ's growth upgrade for fiscal 2020 is on the ambitious side, to say the least. Lunar New Year noise hit Korea's 20-day export print for January. Korea completes its exit from a brief and shallow spell of PPI deflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese banks send a message: no rate corridor cut, no LPR reduction, PPI deflation in Korea in Q2 seems inevitable

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korean exports show no signs of additional pain from Japan's trade salvo. PPI deflation takes hold in Korea.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Further weakness to come for Japan's manufacturing PMI. First services hit from the coronavirus is damning. Japan's all-industry activity index suggests the 2019 tax hike was as bad as 2014. A drop in food inflation was enough to offset lagged oil pressures in Japan's January CPI. Ignore the headline; the coronavirus is now hurting Korean exports.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

November's 20-day data confirm that Korea's export slump bottomed out in October

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

PPI deflation in Korea looks set to deepen, and rapidly so.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

An encouraging 20-day export print from Korea, as China plays catch-up

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Ignore the nasty 20-day print... Korea's export slump has bottomed out

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's PMI report bodes well for Q3, but points to headwinds thereafter. PPI deflation in Korea is unlikely to get worse than the August drop.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

A two-tiered economic recovery is emerging in Japan. PPI deflation in Korea will soon bottom out

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Korea's modest consumption rebound in Q2 barely cushioned the trade blow

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Marginally stronger Q4 GDP growth in Korea implies a more painful Q1 virus hit, CPI inflation in Korea should continue to slide, as the slump in oil prices starts to feed through, Remember the BoJ never officially abandoned it's ¥80T JGB purchase target

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Loan prime rates unchanged, but an RRR cut looks imminent, Korean exports are heading into Q3 with promising momentum

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

Net trade and inventories cushion Korea's historic consumption collapse in Q1. Nasty Japan manufacturing readings, but we can extrapolate light at the end of the tunnel. A devastating services PMI report for Japan.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japanese labour data show early signs of virus hit. Japan's industrial production in a slow recovery... pre-virus. Japan's retail sales still trying to make up lost ground after the tax hike. Tokyo prices already showing signs of virus hit? Korean industrial production wobbles before virus hit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korea's current account balance returns to the black in May

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Covid-19 could soon push Korea's current account surplus into the red.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korea's current account surplus rebounded on a smaller services deficit in July

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's services PMI points to Q2 GDP contraction. China's Caixin services PMI highlights the reasons for official concern over employment. Korea's current account slips into deficit for the first time since 2012.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Let's not get carried away with the Japanese fiscal stimulus. Korea's current account surplus rebounded in October, as the services gap returned to its narrowing trend.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

The hit from oil prices has just started; CPI deflation is imminent in Korea. Korea's PMI descends further, but April could mark the low

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage growth bounces back on volatile bonuses; distortions still at play? Korea's current account surplus has bottomed out, but pressure on the won will continue to rise in the S/T.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus will put renewed pressure on Korea's current account surplus.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage growth rebounded because August is not a bonus month. Japan's current account maintains stability as trade balance cross currents persist. China's services PMI report contains some positive details but we aren't convinced. The rebuilding of Korea's current account surplus will soon lose momentum.

ASIAN DATAWRAP 8 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus falls unexpectedly in April, thanks partly to a bump in imports. Japan's services PMI falls despite holiday boost. The BoJ remains in a holding pattern. Korea's current account surplus rose in March, but its overall downtrend remains intact.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 7 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's exporters fulfil old orders; new orders have plunged; Caixin survey underlines that smaller firms are still sputtering; An unsurprisingly modest start for "unlimited QE" in Japan; Expect much more trade damage to Korea's current account surplus in April

ASIAN DATA WRAP 7 Jan 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korea's current account surplus should rebound sharply in December. The rate of QE in Japan slipped in December.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Overdue correction in the primary income surplus brings Korea's current account back down to earth.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Smaller services sector firms worse hit by virus containment. Korean virus response notches up in the wake of the Fed move.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Korea's current account deficit in April probably was the low.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI edged up in July. Services in China are finally starting to feel the pinch. Korean IP looks poised for a stronger increase in July, notwithstanding Japan's export curbs.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Punchy output gains from China's manufacturers will soon give way. A mixed bag for China's non-manufacturing sectors at the start of Q3. Don't be fooled by the June slip in Japan's unemployment rate. Expect only a mild recovery in Japanese industrial production, for now. Korean production ended Q2 on a strong note.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs are not yet fully picking up the coronavirus; China's non-manufacturing PMI lifted by local government spending; not yet hit by the virus; Japan's job postings still suggest the unemployment rate is unsustainably low; Japan's national inflation has less far to fall than Tokyo's; The coronavirus will delay the return of Japanese retail sales to pre-tax hike levels; Investment goods drive Japan's IP rebound in December; no real support now for consumer goods production; December probably is as good as it will get for Korean industrial production, for now

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs suggest the private sector is recovering ahead of SoEs. China's non-manufacturing PMI again masks construction/services cross currents. Japan's industrial production continues to languish. OK so now Japanese households are front-loading spending. Korean IP corrects from the bumper July; the momentum from the Q2 recovery is waning.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese manufacturing powers through Beijing's partial lockdown. The hot construction sector in China took a small breather in June. Unemployment in Japan is on track to breach the 3% mark for the first time since 2017. No immediate relief for Japanese industry from the withdrawal of the state of emergency. There is light at the end of the tunnel for the downturn in Korean industry.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Consensus-beating March PMI merely underscores how bad February was... the economy isn't out of the woods. The non-manufacturing bounce was broad-based, but construction led the way. Japan's job openings plunge shows the direction of travel for unemployment. Japan's retail sales suggest Q1 pain to be concentrated in March. Japan inc granted a last month of reprieve before the Covid-19 storm hits. Korean carmakers' sourcing woes largely to blame for February hit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI was poised for major disappointment... the trade war impact is clear. Don't be fooled by the relative stability of China's non-manufacturing PMI. Japan's March unemployment uptick was early; April was payback. Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's industrial production ticks up after extreme weakness; don't hold your breath for the recovery. Japan's consumers in poor shape, but maybe it's not that bad. The upswing in Korean industrial production likely to take a breather this month. The BoK holds firm, despite rising calls for a rate cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korea's Q1 GDP downgrade will fuel calls for a rate cut. CPI inflation in Korea should soon peak out. Ignore the uptick in Japanese monetary base; it's a one off.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

The BoJ keeps it promises vague. Japan's April is turning out quite nicely. PPI inflation in Korea slipped in May, and is heading for deflation in Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Non-core base effects push Korean CPI inflation to a 14-month high in January. Monetary base data show BoJ back-peddling against virus.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ remains in an alternate reality in order to avoid a rate cut, underlining its concerns over damage to the financial sector. Chances of a serious PBoC blunder are rising. No "Phase 1" sentiment lift for Chinese manufacturers. A sharp fall in China's official services gauge was due. This probably is as good as it'll get for Japanese industrial production. Korean industrial production remains volatile, but the trend is decisively up.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan: Monetary base growth slowed to 2.8% y/y in August, from 3.7% in July. Bloomberg reports no consensus, Korea: Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 1.0% q/q, from 1.1% in the preliminary report, below the no-change consensus. • Korea: CPI inflation fell to 0.0% in August, from 0.6% in July, below the consensus, 0.2%.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 7 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Rapidly falling wages in Japan rule out a V-shaped spending bounce. May confirms that Korea's current account deficit in April was just a one-off.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Tankan reinforces our impression of a nasty Q2. China's manufacturing PMIs show why the authorities are eager for a trade deal. China's non-manufacturing sector holds steady for now. Korean exports disappointed in June, but this probably is as bad as it will get. Ignore Korea's volatile PMI readings... sentiment is improving gradually.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

PBoC holding still in the wake of Fed rate cut. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was due a bounce. Inflation in Korea will soon take another nosedive, due largely to unfavourable non-core base effects. Korea's export slump turned less bad in July. Korea's two main manufacturing surveys aren't talking to each other.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

The Tankan survey reinforces our conviction in a c.2% y/y Q1 contraction in Japanese GDP. Caixin suggests March was as bad as February... that's bad. Ignore the headline, Korean exports rebounded strongly in March, salvaging Q1. Korean business sentiment is sinking to GFC territory.

5 July 2019 Trade Truce 2.0 Means that the BoK will Happily Ignore June's Weak Data (Publication Centre)

Korea's economic data for June largely were poor, and are likely to make more BoK board members anxious ,ahead of their meeting on July 18.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Tankan suggests downside risks to our -6% y/y Q2 GDP forecast. Private manufacturers in China continue to play catch-up. Expect a bumpy recovery for Korean exports in Q3. Korean business sentiment is finally recovering.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in China are skating on thin ice. Construction is still doing most of the heavy lifting for China's non-manufacturing index. MoF data suggest that Japan probably avoided a technical recession in Q1, just. Korean exports stabilise in May, but Q2 still looks like a lost cause. Korea's PMI continued to sink in May, with no clear signs of a turnaround in export orders.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Tankan points to a q/q contraction for capex in Q3, but GDP growth overall will stay strong. Japan's unemployment steady, but details bode ill for Q4. September's full-month data dispel some export worries in Korea; expect a Q3 lift from net trade. Korea's PMI pours cold water on the spectacular jobs report for August. September is as bad as it gets for Korean CPI deflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour market remains tight but will face persistent slackening from here. Caixin manufacturing on a tear. In the end, CPI deflation in Korea lasted just one month. October probably was the y/y trough in Korea's export slump. Business sentiment in Korea is recovering... albeit only slowly.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Sharper energy and education deflation offset a jump in food prices in Tokyo. Lockdowns in Europe and the U.S. knock out Korean exports in April.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

April wasn't so bad for Korean exports, which are starting to bottom out in real terms

29 May 2020 Expect Another BoK Cut, as the Data will Continue to Disappoint (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday voted unanimously to lower its base rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.50%.

29 March 2019 Debt-Assisted Household Spending Will Keep Potential BoK Cuts at Bay (Publication Centre)

Korea's business survey index rose for a second straight month in March, to 75 from 73 in February, on our adjustment.

22 June 2017 Asian Exports Remain Sturdy in Q2, but the Outlook is Cloudy (Publication Centre)

Korea's preliminary export numbers rebounded quite spectacularly in June, with growth at 24.4% year-on-year, compared with just 3.4% in May. This reading is important as it comes early in the monthly data cycle. Korea's position close to the beginning of the global supply chain, moreover, means its exports often lead shifts in global trade.

2 Mar 2020 Covid-19 Cases Accelerating Outside the Four Major Outbreaks (Publication Centre)

The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing at a faster rate, though 89% of the new cases reported Saturday were in China, South Korea, Italy and Iran.

14 June 2019 If the BoK Blinks--and Cuts--it Would be Ignoring Better Data (Publication Centre)

Korea watchers appear to be hanging on Governor Lee Ju-yeol's every word, searching for any sign that he'll drop his hawkish pursuit of more sustainable household debt levels and prioritise short-term growth concerns.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's LPR drop tells us moral suasion is in full swing. PPI inflation in Korea has peaked, for now.

22 June 2018 Asian Data Point to Slowing World Trade Growth this Year (Publication Centre)

Korean trade activity is slowing.

23 January 2018 China's Demand for Foreign Goods Slows as Output Curbs Loosened? (Publication Centre)

Korean 20-day exports are volatile and often miss the mark with respect to the full-month print. But these data offer the month's first look at Asian trade, and we often find value in these early signs.

25 Feb 2020 Don't Expect the BoK to Jump the Gun with Counter-Virus Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea is likely to keep its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.25%, at its meeting this week.

24 May 2018 If the BoK Lacks the Stamina to Hike this Week, 2018 Could be Barren (Publication Centre)

Korea's 20-day export growth came in weaker than we anticipated earlier this week. Granted, year-over- year growth rebounded to 14.8% in May, from 8.3% in April.

24 July 2017 Asian Trade Dragged Down by Chinese Slump (Publication Centre)

Korean exports are often a useful gauge of Asian and global trade; the country sits near the beginning of the global supply chain. It also happens to publish early in the data cycle and provides a measure of exports in the first 20 days of the month.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Expect Chinese PPI deflation in the second half. China's CPI inflation faces non-core cross currents; services inflation still slowing. Unemployment in Korea held steady in June; the BoK will be chuffed about improving job growth. PPI deflation in Japan will persist until the end of the year.

2 Aug 2019 The BoK Slowly is Setting the Stage for a Quieter Run to the End of 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Korea yesterday laid out its conditions for following July's rate cut with another.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Don't expect the BoK to follow the BoJ's unorthodoxy in the foreseeable future. The upward correction in Korean unemployment has much more room to run.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation has troughed; Japan's budget forecasts for next year are on the rosy side; China's LPR stability reflects precarious banking sector; Korea should make a complete exit from PPI deflation this month

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korean inflation surprises to the upside in April. Manufacturing surveys in Korea are turning up.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Mar 2020 part 2 (Publication Centre)

China's retail sector is on its knees at best. China's IP data suggest that the horrendous PMIs underplayed the carnage. A damning FAI report... tertiary capex should rebound, but the hit to global demand will hold back the secondary industry. China's property market grounds to a halt in February. The Bank of Korea steps in with an emergency cut, despite falling new infections locally.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's government is sucking out more private funds than it is pumping in. Weak oil prices will continue to pull down Korean inflation in the coming months.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs turn less grim, but look unsupported, for now. China's non-manufacturing PMI receives a one-off singles day boost. Japan's capex data suggests Q3 upgrade. Net trade is shaping up to be a drag on Q4 GDP, as Korean exports remained weak in November. Korea's exit from deflation is complete, thanks largely to more favourable base effects. Korea's PMI jumps in November... and that's before the likely sentiment boost from normalising ties with Japan.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

China PMI chimes with our GDP downgrade last week. China's non-manufacturing PMI weakest on construction. Japan's MoF capex numbers point to Q4 GDP downgrade. Ignore the consensus-beating headline, Korean exports were abysmal in February, calendar effects aside. The virus now has infected Korea's PMI; expect business surveys to get a lot worse.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

A trivial upgrade to Korea's Q1 GDP, CPI deflation in Korea will last for the rest of 2020, Monetary base growth in Japan continued to accelerate in May, as the rate of QE rose

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Still no benchmark rate cuts, as the PBoC lowers the cost of its re-lending and re-discount loans. The lagged oil drag on Korean CPI is now receding. No signs, yet, of the BoJ taking its foot off the pedal on JGB purchases.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ does what it can to avoid more deeply negative yields. Korean inflation should peak this month

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Our caution over China's March industrial production spike was justified. Chinese retail sales growth hits lows. Chinese FAI growth suggests private sector policy loosening isn't working. Japan's M2 growth upturn is a welcome break, but needs to be sustained. Korean unemployment jumps in April, showing the limits of the government's hiring spree.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Job losses in the over-60 group pull Korea's unemployment rate higher in December. Japanese M2 growth holds steady in December. Still no clear signs of a recovery in machine tool orders in Japan.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

August plunge in Korean unemployment is unsustainable, but should effectively rule out another BoK cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

China still is on track for mild CPI deflation by Q4, PPI deflation in China has bottomed out , Core machine orders in Japan tank in the wake of the state of emergency, Adverse base effects from last year's tax hike will delay Japan's exit from PPI deflation, Surprise spike in Korea's unemployment rate makes sense given the plunge in jobs created

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Covid-19 efforts in Korea, plus Q1 front-loading of jobs budget, result in February surprise.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Big gains in the size of the labour force continue to flatter Korea's unemployment rate. Japan's exit from PPI deflation will be followed by only modest inflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's monetary and credit trends were looking better, but now stand to be damaged by... the virus scare. Virus hit still to come for Japanese machine tool orders? Korea's jobless rate is back to its pre-August one-off plunge.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Surprise stability in Korea's unemployment rate won't last. Risks to Japan's current account surplus are weighted to the downside

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Mr. Trump's partial U-turn on September tariffs shows some semblance of an understanding of reality...that's a good thing. China's industrial production crushes June hopes of a swift recovery. Chinese consumers struggle. Chinese FAI: the infrastructure industry growth slowdown is especially worrying. Japan's strong core machine orders rebound in June probably faded in recent weeks. Korea's jobless rate will soon creep back up after remaining steady in July.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Evidence continues to build that Korea's August unemployment plunge was a fluke. October sales tax hike in Japan opens the door for a quicker exit from PPI deflation.

14 February 2019 A Bad Start for Workers in Korea, as the 2019 Minimum Wage Bites (Publication Centre)

Korea's jobs report for January was nasty. The unemployment rate spiked to 4.4%, from 3.8% in December, marking the highest level in nine years.

13 Mar 2020 Lift from Anti-Covid Jobs in Korea won't Last, the BoK will Cut in April (Publication Centre)

The effects of Covid-19--both negative and positive--on Korea's labour market certainly were felt in February.

15 June 2020 Korea's Unemployment Rate will Surpass the Financial Crisis Peak (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate rose faster than expected in May, jumping to 4.5%, from 3.8% in April. We've been arguing for some time that the delayed impact of the economic growth slowdown from late- 2017 to early-2019 would eventually push the jobless rate to the mid-4% level this year; the sudden stop caused by Covid-19 merely sped up this process.

14 May 2020 Korea's Stable Unemployment Rate Belies the Ongoing Virus Hit to Jobs (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate was unchanged in April, at 3.8%, beating even our below-consensus forecast for only a minor uptick, to 3.9%.

24 Mar 2020. Korea's Partial Trade Data for March Point to Hope for a Not-so-Grim Q1 (Publication Centre)

Korea's partial trade data for March suggest that the first quarter may not be as grim as we expected, at least in terms of merchandise trade.

27 July 2018 Q2 Slump in Korean Investment will Elicit More Accommodative Policy (Publication Centre)

Korean GDP data for Q2, released yesterday, were largely in line with our expectations, in that net exports cushioned softer domestic demand.

Asia H2 2019 Outlook - China's recovery is tentatively pending - Japanese domestic demand will disappoint - Korea is through the worst - The RBI is in for a U-turn (Publication Centre)

China's Recovery Tentatively Pending *Japan is Weaker than it Looks *The Worst is Over in Korea *Expect an RBI U-Turn

25 Feb 2020 The Fed will Blink if Markets have Many More Days Like Yesterday (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's stock market bloodbath stands in contrast to the U.S. economic data, most of which so far show no impact from the Covid-19 outbreak.

25 Sept 2019 Japan's September PMI Points to Strong Q3 Deterioration Thereafter (Publication Centre)

Japan's September PMI report showed some slippage, but overall, it suggests that GDP growth in Q3 was a little stronger than the 0.3% quarter- on-quarter rate in Q2.

23 June 2020 Market Rates Should Continue to Fall in China, even with Stable LPR (Publication Centre)

China's loan prime rates were unchanged for a second straight month in June, as expected.

26 June 2017 Japan Surprises on the Upside as the Economy Accelerates into Q2 (Publication Centre)

Japanese data continue to come in strongly for the second quarter. The manufacturing PMI points to continued sturdy growth, despite the headline index dipping to 52.0 in June from 53.1 in May. The average for Q2 overall was 52.6, almost unchanged from Q1's 52.8, signalling that manufacturing output growth has maintained its recent rate of growth.

24 September 2018 BoJ Still Likely to Shift the Focus to Capacity-Responsive Prices (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation jumped to 1.3% in August, from 0.9% in July.

24 June 2019 Japan's CPI Inflation has Peaked but the BoJ isn't Bothered (Publication Centre)

Japan's national CPI inflation has peaked, falling to 0.7% in May from 0.9% in April.

24 Feb 2020 Covid-19 Takes out Hope of Japan's Q1 Recovery, PMIs Show (Publication Centre)

Japan's January PMIs sent a clear signal that the virus impact is not to be underestimated. The manufacturing PMI fell to 47.6 in February, from 48.8 in January, contrasting sharply with the rising headlines of last week's batch of European PMIs.

23 Mar 2020 The Growth of European Covid-19 Cases Slowed Sharply Yesterday (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of new coronavirus infections across Europe slowed yesterday, in some cases quite markedly. We can quibble about the reliability of the data in individual countries, given variations in testing regimes, but the picture is strikingly uniform.

23 March 2018 Stock up on Chinese-Made T-Shirts, While They're Still Nearly Free (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's announcement that the administration plans to imposes tariffs worth about $60B per year -- thatìs 0.3% of GDP -- on an array of imports of consumer goods from China is a serious escalation.

26 June 2019 Green Shoots in Semiconductors, but they aren't Out of the Woods (Publication Centre)

Major central banks in Asia, particularly those operating in export-oriented economies, have recently been pinning their future policy moves on the prospects of a specific industry, namely semiconductors.

27 Mar 2020 India Declares War on Covid-1, an H1 Recession Looks Inevitable (Publication Centre)

India's government imposed a three-week nationwide lockdown on March 25 to combat the increasingly rapid spread of Covid-19.

23 February 2018 PBoC Fights Back Against RMB Strength but BoJ Le to Jawbone (Publication Centre)

The PBoC managed to keep interest rates well- anchored around the Chinese New Year holiday, when volatility is often elevated.

27 September 2017 Is Abe Pulling a May? Consumption Tax and BoJ Head are at Stake (Publication Centre)

The last few years have thrown up surprise after surprise for establishment parties. Mr. Abe's Liberal Democrat Party is about as establishment as they come.

28 Feb 2020 The Fed Can't Stand by as Markets Melt, Expect Easing at Any Time (Publication Centre)

The Fed will soon have to step in to try to put a firebreak in the stock market.

28 February 2018 The BoK is in Wait-And-See Mode, Consumer Confidence Dented (Publication Centre)

Data and events have gone against the idea of further BoK policy normalisation since the November hike.

27 June 2018 China Turns to the RRR to Sustain the Debt Clean-up Amid Fed Hikes (Publication Centre)

In yesterday's Monitor, we laid out the prime causes of China's weekend announcement, cutting the reserve requirement ratio.

27 Feb 2020 Yesterday's Measures from China Help Avert Full-Blown Debt Crisis (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's State Council meeting significantly expanded support to the economy, through a number of channels.

26 November 2018 The Coming Year won't Provide Much Respite for Asian Economies (Publication Centre)

The past year has been difficult for Asian economies, with trade wars, natural disasters, and misguided policies, to name a few, putting a dampener on growth.

26 October 2017 Politburo Appointments Ensure Policy Continuity, Nothing More (Publication Centre)

The Chinese Communist Party revealed the new members of its top brass yesterday, with the line-up ensuring policy continuity.

26 September 2018 Is China Really Deleveraging, and can it Last? (Publication Centre)

After years of rapid increase, China appears finally to have stabilised its ratio of private non-financial to GDP ratio.

27 Feb 2020 Non-China Covid-19 Spread is Slowing but Big Market Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of Covid-19 cases outside China appears to have peaked, for now, but we can't yet have any confidence that this represents a definitive shift in the progress of the epidemic.

26 June 2020 Don't be Too Worried About China's Current Account Deficit in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The final numbers for China's balance of payments in the first quarter showed that the current account descended to a $34B deficit, from a surplus of $30B a year earlier.

2 Sept 2019 Japan's Consumption Story is on Thin Ice, even if Front-Loading Helps (Publication Centre)

The Japanese government's plan to smooth out the consumption cliff-edge generated by October's sales tax hike is either going too well, or consumers now are facing fundamental headwinds.

2 Mar 2020 Japan's Labour Data in Disarray, Early Signs of Virus Worries? (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour data threw another January curve ball this year--last year it was wages--with a change in the standards for job openings.

2 May 2018 The BoK is on a Mission, and will Hike in May, it's not About Inflation (Publication Centre)

We expect the BoK to hike this month, believing that it's necessary to curtail household debt growth now, in order to prevent a sharper economic slowdown as the Fed hiking cycle continues, China slows, and trade risks unfold.

2 October 2017 Japanese CPI Inflation Still led by Food and Energy, for now (Publication Centre)

Japanese CPI inflation jumped to 0.7% in August from 0.4% in July. The ris e in prices over the last year, however, was mainly driven by food and energy.

20 December 2018 A Rate Cut Would Enhance Efficacy of the PBoC's new Lending Facility (Publication Centre)

The PBoC late on Wednesday announced measures to provide medium-term funding for smaller businesses.

2 July 2019 Mr. Trump Removes the Gun from Mr. Xi's Head... Now a Deal? (Publication Centre)

We anticipated that the G20 meeting at Osaka over last weekend would be a potentially important mark of thawing relations between China and the U.S., with the hotly awaited meeting between Messrs. Xi and Trump.

2 Jan 2020 China's PMIs Highlight Weakening Non-manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 50.2 in December, marking a weak end to the year. But it could have been worse; we had been worried that the return to above-50 territory in November had been boosted by temporary factors. December's print allays some of those fears.

2 August 2017 Inflation to Erode Chinese Demand in the Second Half (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI rebounded to 51.1 in July from 50.4 in June, soundly beating the consensus for no change. The PMIs are seasonally adjusted but the data are much less volatile on our adjustment model. On our adjustment, the headline has averaged 50.9 so far this year, modestly higher than in the second half of last year.

2 Dec 2019 Further Increase in Japanese Unemployment in Store (Publication Centre)

Japan's jobless rate was unchanged, at 2.4% in October, as the market took a breather after September's job losses.

2 February 2018 Caixin PMI will Fall in February, Though Activity will Strengthen (Publication Centre)

Holiday effects are tedious and you are going to hear us talking about them until the March data come through.

28 January 2019 PBoC CBSs: Not Quite QE, but Potentially a Useful Step (Publication Centre)

Last week the Chinese authorities issued a series of new measures to help with bank recapitalisation, and, we think, to supplement interbank liquidity.

20 Feb 2020 What China's Doing about the Labour Market & Bankruptcy Threat (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's State Council meeting implies that the authorities are starting to take more serious coordinated fiscal measures to counter the virus threat to the labour market and to banks.

20 February 2019 China's Current Account Surplus is Stabilising, but at a Very Low Level (Publication Centre)

China's current account surplus grew further in the final quarter of 2018, more than doubling to $54.6B, from $23.3B in Q3.

22 February 2019 The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Japan's Economy from Q4 to Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Japanese activity data were grim.

22 January 2018 China Growth Met Target Before Q4, Environmental Targets hit in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The China Daily ran an article entitled "Beijing, nation get breath of fresh air" on the day Chinese GDP figures were published last week, underlining where the authorities' priorities now lie.

22 June 2020 Should we be Worried About Second Wave Risks in East Asia? (Publication Centre)

The newest cluster of Covid-19 in China has reignited concerns over a second wave. On June 11, Beijing confirmed its first infection in nearly 60 days, originating reportedly from Xinfadi market, a wholesaler which supplies about 80% of the capital's produce.

22 Nov 2019 China's Exit from PPI Deflation Next Year will be Short-Lived (Publication Centre)

The PBoC's quarterly monetary policy report seemed relatively sanguine on the question of PPI deflation, attributing it mainly to base effects--not entirely fairly--and suggesting that inflation will soon return.

21 March 2019 Upside Risks to our China 2019 GDP Growth Forecast (Publication Centre)

For countries with developed non-banking funding channels, narrow money isn't necessarily a good predictor of GDP growth.

21 June 2019 As Markets Attack, the BoJ is Caught like a Deer in the Headlights (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, BoJ policy seems to be to change none of the settings and let things unfold, hoping that the trade war doesn't escalate, that China's recovery gets underway soon, and that semiconductor sales pick up in the second half.

20 Mar 2020 The Fed is Now Intervening Across the Board, Almost, Good (Publication Centre)

The Fed's announcement, at 11.30pm Wednesday, that it will establish a Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility--MMLF--to support prime money market funds, is another step to limit the emerging credit crunch triggered by the virus.

20 Nov 2019 Indian Inflation Smashes Through the RBI's Target, Setting Up a Pause (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in India jumped to 4.6% in October, from 4.0% in September, marking a 16-month high and blasting through the RBI's target.

21 February 2018 The ECB is in the Headlines, But Not Because of its Monetary Policy (Publication Centre)

Politics are once again encroaching on the economic story in the Eurozone. At the ECB, this week has so far been a tumultuous one.

22 November 2017 LEIs Point to Stabilising Japanese Domestic Demand Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Japan's all-industry activity index fell 0.5% month-on- month in September after a 0.2% rise in August. Construction activity continued to plummet, with the subindex dropping 2.3%, after a 2.2% fall in August.

4 December 2017 Japan's Labour Market is Already Tight, and Getting Tighter (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour market is already tight, but last week's data suggest it is set to tighten further.

4 Sept 2019 A Japanese Stimulus Package is on its Way, but not a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The BoJ has no good options, and its leeway for changes to existing policy instruments is limited.

5 December 2017 Japan: QQE is Dead, Long Live YCC... For Now (Publication Centre)

Japan's monetary base growth has continued to slow, to 13.2% year-over-year in November from 14.5% in October.

5 December 2018 China and U.S. Agree a Truce Exports Still Face Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Data last Friday showed Japan's labour market trends deteriorating.

4 Mar 2020 Revisions Aside, India's Q4 GDP isn't Worrying, nor is the Virus Risk (Publication Centre)

India's GDP report for the fourth quarter surprised to the upside, with the economy growing by 4.7% year-over-year, against the Bloomberg median forecast of 4.5%.

4 Mar 2020 More to Come from the Fed, but Fiscal Policy has to Step Up too (Publication Centre)

We aren't in the business of trying to divine the explanation for every twist and turn in the stock market at the best of times, and these are not the best of times.

2 Apr 2020 Tankan Implies a Severe Tightening of Japan's Financial Conditions (Publication Centre)

The Q1 Tankan survey headlines were close to our expectations, chiming with our call for year-over-year contraction in Japanese GDP of at least 2%, after the 0.7% decline in Q4.

4 February 2019 Unboxing--and Making Sense--of the Collapse in China's Caixin PMI (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI for January was grim, indicating that China's start to the year wasn't as benign as the official surveys suggested.

4 June 2018 Chinese PPI Inflation is Set to Head Higher, it will be Short-lived (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing headline was unremarkable, but the input price index signals that PPI inflation is set to rise again in May, to 4.0%-plus, from 3.4% in April.

4 June 2019 The Official PMI has it Right Tariff hit has Derailed China's Trade Recovery (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI was steady in May, at 50.2, in contrast to the official gauge published on Friday, which dropped to 49.5, from April's 50.2.

5 July 2017 BoJ to Jettison Quantity Target as Voters Express Discontent (Publication Centre)

Mr Abe's Liberal Democratic Party took a drubbing at the polls in Tokyo's Assembly election over the weekend. The consequences for fiscal spending probably are minimal but the vote strengthens the case for increased emphasis on the structural reform "arrow" and less focus on monetary policy.

5 June 2019 India's Q1 GDP was a Big Miss, but a Knee Jerk Cut Would be Foolish (Publication Centre)

GDP growth in India slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, as expected--see here--opening the door for the RBI to cut interest rates further at its policy announcement tomorrow.

6 Jan 2020 China's Hukou Reforms, Useful but no Substitute for Looser Money (Publication Centre)

Late last year, China said it would scrap residency restrictions for cities with populations less than three million, while the rules for those of three-to-five million will be relaxed.

6 June 2019 Japanese Tax Hike Delay now More Likely, Even with a Q1 GDP Upgrade (Publication Centre)

We are sticking to our call for a weak first half in Japan, despite likely upgrades to Q1 GDP on Monday.

6 Sept 2019 China Signals Stimulus Top-ups are on the Way (Publication Centre)

A growing number of economists have marked down their forecasts for Chinese growth next year to below the critical 6% year-over-year rate, required to ensure that the authorities meet their implicit medium- term growth targets.

7 Aug 2019 We're Still Not Buying Healthy Data in Japan Wage Growth is Distorted (Publication Centre)

Always expect the unexpected in a bonus month for Japanese wages.

6 April 2018 The Game Theory of Sino-U.S. Relations, the Status quo is Out (Publication Centre)

The meta game between China and Mr. Trump started as soon as he had any possibility of winning the election in 2016.

5 September 2017 How Much of a Headwind is a Stronger Euro for EZ Equities? (Publication Centre)

At the start of the year, consensus forecasts expected Eurozone equities to outperform their global peers this year, on the back of a strengthening cyclical recovery and an increase in earnings growth. Both of these conditions have been met, and yesterday's sentiment data suggest that EZ equity investors remain constructive.

5 Mar 2020 Does the Fed's Cut Open the Asian Floodgates for Rate Reductions (Publication Centre)

The Fed's unscheduled 50bp cut on Tuesday opens up some space for Asian central banks to follow suit.

5 March 2018 Whatever the Problem is, Tariffs aren't the Answer (Publication Centre)

The apparently imminent imposition of 25% tariffs on imported steel and 10% on aluminum does not per se constitute a serious macroeconomic shock.

5 November 2018 China's Role in Global Rates over the Next 10 Years (Publication Centre)

In recent months we've been thinking more deeply about the themes for the next economic cycle for China, and its impact on the world.

4 April 2018 Japan's Tankan Points to Building Inflationary Pressure (Publication Centre)

The Tankan survey--published on Monday--points to still buoyant sentiment, a further tightening of the labour market, and building inflation pressures.

31 July 2019 The Bank of Japan Snubs the Doves, with its Options Knowingly Limited (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's BoJ statement, outlook and press conference raised our conviction on two key aspects of the policy outlook.

3 Apr 2020 Who Will Finance China's Ballooning Fiscal Deficit (Publication Centre)

China's economic targets are AWOL this year, thanks to Covid-19 disruptions to the legislative calendar... and because policymakers seem unsure of what targets to set in such uncertain times.

3 Dec 2019 Is the Caixin Manufacturing PMI Uptrend Justified (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs put in a better performance in November, with the official gauge ticking up to 50.2 in November, from 49.3 in October, and the Caixin measure little changed, at 51.8, up from 51.7.

3 January 2018 Caixin PMI Overstates Momentum, but Activity will Strengthen in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI picked up to 51.5 in December from 50.8 in November. But the jump looks erratic and we expect it to correct in January.

3 Mar 2020 China's PMIs Mean Our GDP Downgrades are the Right Call (Publication Centre)

Last week we made a big call and further downgraded our China GDP forecasts for Q1; daily data and survey evidence suggested that our initial take, though grim, had not been grim enough.

29 September 2017 China's Pending Targeted RRR cut Implies SMEs are Struggling (Publication Centre)

China is set to ease reserve requirements for banks lending to small businesses. In a statement after the State Council meeting yesterday, Premier Li Keqiang said that commercial banks would receive a cut in their RRR , from 17% currently, based on how much they lend to businesses run by individuals.

29 November 2018 The Bank's Brexit Deal Scenarios are Consistent with a May Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

Predictably, the Bank of England's estimate that GDP would plunge by 8% in the first year after a disorderly no-deal, no transition Brexit and that interest rates would need to rise to 5.5% to contain inflation grabbed the headlines yesterday.

29 April 2019 BoJ Wakes up to China's Slowdown, Goes into Lockdown (Publication Centre)

The BoJ until last week had been in wait-and-see mode over China's slowdown, but they finally folded with Thursday's decision.

29 January 2018 Japanese CPI inflation is Half Energy and Half Food, BoJ in a Bind (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation jumped to 1.0% in December from 0.6% in November, driven by food prices.

29 July 2019 China's GDP Headlines Overstate Growth but Q2 Wasn't all Bad News (Publication Centre)

China's Q2 real GDP growth officially slowed to 6.2% year-over-year, from 6.4% in Q1, which already matched the trough in the financial crisis.

29 June 2018 Trade Tensions Unveil Chinese Financial Fragility (Publication Centre)

In previous Monitors, we have outlined our base case that the direct impact of tariffs on Chinese GDP will be minimal this year.

3 Mar 2020 Which Covid-19 Data Matter More, New Cases or Log-Levels (Publication Centre)

Something of a debate appears to be underway in markets over the "correct" way to look at the coronavirus data.

3 May 2018 China's PMI Export Orders Paint an Overly Gloomy Picture (Publication Centre)

The forward-looking indices of China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for April attracted more attention than the headline, which was a bit of a non-event; it rose trivially 51.1, from 51.0 in March.

30 January 2019 A Mixed Bag of PMI Readings in China won't Put Off Fresh Stimulus (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs for January, due out tomorrow, will give the first indications of how the economy started the year.

30 July 2019 Japan's LDP Sails Through Election Consumers Wary of Tax Hike (Publication Centre)

Japan returned the ruling LDP coalition to power in an upper house election over the weekend.

30 May 2019 China's Manufacturing PMIs will Give the First Hint of Trade War Hit (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI for May, out tomorrow, will give the first indication of the coming hit from the resumption of its tariff war with the U.S.

30 November 2018 Japan's Retail Sales Deliver a Rosy October Jump - Blip or Trend? (Publication Centre)

Japan's retail sales values jumped 1.2% month-on-month in October, after the upwardly-revised 0.1% increase in September.

30 April 2019 Q1 Data have Spooked Japanese Policymakers is it Temporary (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q1 is coming more sharply into focus.

30 Apr 2020 Footfall Data Highlight the Wide Range of "Lockdowns" in Asia (Publication Centre)

Google's Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports have come raging into fashion in recent weeks, providing a glimpse of the damage done by lockdowns across the world.

3 May 2019 Is Japan MMT-ing Sort of, but this Prescription was Aimed at the U.S. (Publication Centre)

Modern Money Theory has come up at two consecutive BoJ press conferences.

3 October 2017 Manufacturing Powers Ahead, Supported by External Demand (Publication Centre)

The Asian PMIs point to a strengthening manufacturing sector in September but external demand is the driver.

3 September 2018 China's PMIs Point to Tariff Pain, and Only Minimal PPI Inflation Slowdown (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs were little changed in August, with the manufacturing gauge up trivially to 51.3, from 51.2 in July and the non-manufacturing gauge up to 54.2, from 54.0.

28 March 2018 Japan's Labour Market to Continue Tightening this Year (Publication Centre)

Data to be released this Friday should show that Japan's labour market remains tight, though the unemployment rate likely ticked back up in February, to 2.6%, after the erratic drop to 2.4% in January.

15 Apr 2020 China's Import Outperformance Likely Reflects Early Q1 Strength (Publication Centre)

China's unadjusted March trade balance rebounded to a surplus of $20B, from a combined deficit of -$7B in the first two months of the year.

1 March 2019 China's Latest PMIs Give no Reason for Hope Trade Partners Beware (Publication Centre)

Chinese data still are in the midst of Lunar New Year-related noise, so take February's PMIs with a pinch of salt, even though they ostensibly are adjusted for seasonal effects.

1 May 2019 No Reason to Panic a Correction in China's PMIs was Coming (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Chinese PMI numbers disappointed forecasts across the board, failing to meet widespread expectations for either stability or a continued, albeit marginal, improvement in April.

10 August 2017 Chinese Producer Price Inflation is Proving Sticky (Publication Centre)

Chinese PPI inflation was unchanged at 5.5% in July; it had been expected to rise modestly. Officially, inflation peaked at 7.8% in February, but we think this peak was artificially high, thanks to seasonal effects. The slowing in PPI inflation since the peak appears to suggest that monthly price gains have slowed sharply. We find little evidence to support this.

10 January 2019 Japanese Households Face Cross-currents Time to Tighten the Belt (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage growth surprised us with a jump to 2.0% year-over-year in December, up from 1.5% in November.

1 June 2018 China's PMIs Signal Another Rise in PPI In ation in May (Publication Centre)

The return of Chinese PPI inflation in 2016 helped to stabilise equities after the boom-bust of the previous year.

1 July 2019 Fresh Evidence of Pre-Tax Front- Loading in Japan... All for Naught? (Publication Centre)

Japan's industrial production data for May carried more evidence that the economy is getting a lift--at least temporarily--from the front-loading of activity ahead of the scheduled sales tax increase in October.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Headline GDP growth in Q3 was unchanged, but the revised details mostly were positive. BoJ in a holding pattern on aggregate JGB purchases; focus on curve steepening

1 August 2017 Chinese Second Half Looking Increasingly Stagflationary (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI, published on Monday, implies the industrial complex has maintained momentum going into Q3. The official manufacturing PMI moderated slightly to 51.4 in July from 51.7 in June. The July reading was unchanged from the average in Q2 and only modestly down from the 51.6 in Q1.

1 December 2017 The BoK Jumps on the Global Tightening Wave. Rocky Ride Ahead (Publication Centre)

President Moon was elected earlier this year on a promise to rebalance the economy toward domestic demand and reduce export dependency. It's not the first time politicians have received such a mandate.

1 February 2019 It's Official China will Enter PPI Deflation, Though Only Briefly (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI was little changed in January, ticking up to 49.5, from 49.4 in December, with the output and new orders sub-indices largely stable.

10 Mar 2020 Expect China's Imports to Deteriorate Further this Month (Publication Centre)

China's trade balance flipped to an unadjusted deficit of $7.1B in the first two months of the year, from a $47.2B surplus in December.

10 Mar 2020 Oil Sector Capex is Set to Collapse, Outweighing Consumers' Gain (Publication Centre)

The collapse in oil prices was the immediate trigger for the 7.6% plunge in the S&P 500 yesterday, but the underlying reason is the Covid-19 epidemic.

12 Dec 2019 China's Economic Targets will Remain a Political Affair for 2020 (Publication Centre)

China concludes its annual Central Economic Work Conference today, where the economic targets and the agenda for next year are set.

12 February 2019 Japan's GDP Bounce-Back in Q4 will be Driven by Domestic Demand (Publication Centre)

Japan's preliminary GDP report for Q4 is out on Thursday, and we expect to see a punchy number.

12 July 2019 What's Behind China's Likely 0.2pp Slippage in Q2 Real GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

China's Q2 official GDP growth, to be released on Monday, likely slowed to 6.2% year-over-year, from 6.4% in Q1.

12 June 2017 China's Policy Choices are all Difficult, can Disaster be Averted? (Publication Centre)

China faces three possible macro outcomes over the next few years. First, the economy could pull off an active transition to consumer-led growth. Second, it could gradually slide into Japan-style growth and inflation, with government debt spiralling up. Third, it could face a full blown debt crisis, where the authorities lose control and China drags the global economy down too

12 April 2018 China will Take a Breather from PPI Disinflation for a few Months (Publication Centre)

Chinese PPI inflation dropped again in March to 3.1%, from February's 3.7%. Commodities were the driver, but base effects should mean the headline rate won't fall further in coming months; it is more likely to rise in Q2.

11 Sept 2019 China's PPI Deflation isn't all Commodity-Driven (Publication Centre)

China's PPI deflation deepened in August, with prices dropping 0.8% year-over-year, after a 0.3% decline in July.

10 Oct 2019 A Sovereignty Threat is a Deal-breaker for China (Publication Centre)

Since the protests in Hong Kong began, we've become increasingly convinced that China is backing away from a comprehensive trade deal with Mr. Trump.

11 July 2018 China's Officials Aren't Worried About the Uptick in PPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

China's PPI inflation rose again in June, to 4.7%, from 4.1% in May.

11 July 2019 Central Banks in Asia have Less Scope to Respond to PPI Deflation (Publication Centre)

PPI inflation in Asia looks set to go from bad to worse, following June's poor numbers, which showed that the weakness in commodity prices is feeding through quicker than expected.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Expecting one more cut from the BoK, as it mulls implicit forms QE and YCC

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Household debt forced the BoK toward targeted measures and away from a system-wide cut

8 Nov 2019 The RMB Rally is Understandable, but Let's not Over-egg it (Publication Centre)

The RMB has been on a tear, as expectations for a "Phase One" trade deal have firmed.

8 October 2018 Bright Spots, and Some Warning Signs, in Japan's Wage Data (Publication Centre)

Japan's average monthly labour earnings growth tumbled to 0.9% year-over-year in August, from 1.6% in July. This is not a disaster.

7 February 2019 Weakness in Exports Still Weighs on German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand for German manufacturing goods remained subdued at the end of Q4.

9 Aug 2019 China's Trade Balance has Just About Peaked, For Now (Publication Centre)

China's trade numbers for July surprised to the upside, with both exports and imports faring better than consensus forecasts in year-over-year terms.

7 Jan 2020 Chinese CPI Inflation won't Budge Much on U.S.-Iran Tensions (Publication Centre)

Our chief economist, Ian Shepherdson, set out our initial thoughts on the rising tensions between U.S. and Iran here.

8 July 2020 Japanese Wages are in Bad Shape Heading into Bonus Season (Publication Centre)

It is becoming increasingly safe to say that any bounce in private consumption following the end of Japan's state of emergency will be muted and difficult to sustain.

7 March 2018 Reading Between the Lines of Governor Kuroda's Confirmation (Publication Centre)

In his second confirmation hearing, Governor Kuroda continued his dance with markets, dialling down the exit talk.

7 November 2018 China's Q3 BoP Data Confirm Trade War-Related Capital Flight (Publication Centre)

China's unadjusted current account surplus widened to $16.0B in the preliminary report for Q3, from $5.3B in Q2.

7 September 2018 Are Chinese Efforts to Stabilise Growth Starving Private Firms (Publication Centre)

China's authorities recognised, around the middle of this year, that activity was slowing and that monetary conditions had become overly tight.

7 December 2018 Will the BoJ be Put Off Policy Adjustments by Market Turmoil? (Publication Centre)

Recent market turmoil and concerns on the outlook for global growth have re-awakened talk of stimulus. For the BoJ, this inevitably raises the question of what could possibly be done, given that policy already appears to be on the excessively loose side of loose.

9 May 2019 China's Imports are U-Turning, but Exports Still Face Major Headwinds (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus collapsed unexpectedly in April, to $13.8B, from a trivially-revised $32.4B in March.

9 Sept 2019 China's RRR cut Helps Credit Supply but Demand Still Wanting (Publication Centre)

The PBoC cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio late on Friday--as signalled at last Wednesday's State Council meeting--by 0.5 percentage points, to be implemented from September 16.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's consensus-beating Q2 GDP signals that it is done easing. Chinese industry drove the Q2 rebound... now comes the hard part. The recovery in manufacturing capex in China continues to disappoint. The upward momentum in China's property market is unlikely to last. The BoK held, but Governor Lee's rhetoric suggests it should've cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Steady Q4 GDP growth in China masks respectable q/q rebound. Signs of recovery in China's industrial complex, but for how long? China's households continue to struggle. China's FAI growth shows rebuilding confidence around the Phase One deal. Japan's November tertiary index suggests October plunge was more tax than typhoon. January sees the first of many BoK "holds" this year.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs remain in the downdraft

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

A grim start to Q2, as developed world demand collapses

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

BoJ programmes are propping up M2 growth; Japan's machine tool orders tumble will get worse before better

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's firms aren't passing on tax hikes after all. China takes full advantage of previous oil price declines. Japan's core machine orders better than expected, but that won't help Q2. Japan is heading for a spell of sustained PPI deflation in H2. Better May jobs report will help to keep any BoK rate cuts at bay.

Asia 11 May 2020 Ignore China's Sturdy April Exports, Catch-Up can only go so Far (Publication Centre)

China's export data for April were a mixed bag, to say the least.

ASIA Datanote: Flash Jibun Bank PMIs, March, Japan (Publication Centre)

Echoes of the global financial crisis and the 2011 tsunami in Japan's manufacturing PMI

Freya Beamish

Freya Beamish produces the Asia service at Pantheon. She has several years of experience in covering the global economy, with a particular focus on China, Japan and Korea. Previously, she worked at Lombard Street Research (now TS Lombard), where she delivered research on Asia and the Global economy for over five years, latterly as the manager of the Macroeconomics group.

12 Mar 2020 China's Money and Credit Data Show No Room for Complacency (Publication Centre)

China's money and credit data for February were reassuring, at least when compared with the doomsday scenario painted, so far, by other key indicators for last month.

12 May 2020 Brace for a GDP Drop of About 2.5% in Q1, Despite the Late Lockdown (Publication Centre)

The Q1 GDP figures, released on Wednesday, likely will show that the quarter-on-quarter decline in economic activity eclipsed the biggest decline in the 2008-to-09 recession--2.1% in Q4 2008--even though the U.K. went into lockdown towards the very end of the quarter.

17 January 2019 Special report: How Bad is China's Bad Debt, and can the Government Still Manage it? (Publication Centre)

In our daily Monitors we've talked about the four paths that we see for the Chinese economy over the medium-to-long term. First, China could make history and actively transition to private consumption-led growth.

18 Dec 2019 The BoJ will be Happy to Focus on the Positives this Thursday (Publication Centre)

The BoJ is likely to stay on hold this week for all its main policy settings.

18 June 2018 The U.S. Will Blink Before Imposing Tariffs on Chinese Consumer Goods (Publication Centre)

The imposition of 25% tariffs on $50B-worth of imports from China, announced Friday, had been clearly flagged in media reports over the previous couple of weeks.

18 June 2018 When is a BoJ Dove not a Dove? When the Experiment has Failed (Publication Centre)

Governor Kuroda has sounded increasingly dovish recently.

17 Dec 2019 Signs of Stabilisation in Chinese Data, but not yet a Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's activity data outperformed expectations in November.

17 August 2017 China's Reform Scorecard Part Five: Monetary Policy Operation (Publication Centre)

Chinese monetary policymakers can rely on several different instruments to affect market and broad liquidity, ranging from various forms of open market operations to interest rates to FX intervention. The tool kit is constantly changing as the PBoC refines its operations.

15 October 2018 Chinese Trade: Import from Anywhere but the U.S. (Publication Centre)

China's September trade numbers show that, far from reducing the surplus with the U.S., the trade wars so far have pushed it up to a new record.

16 August 2017 As Good as it Gets for German GDP Growth in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Q2 GDP report in Germany was solid, but the headline disappointed slightly. GDP growth slowed to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter from an upwardly- revised 0.7% rise in Q1. The year-over-year rate, however, rose to 2.1% from a revised 2.0% in Q1.

16 Dec 2019 "Phase One" Picked Low-Hanging Fruit... Now for the Hard Part (Publication Centre)

ate last week, China and the U.S. reached an agreement, averting the planned U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese consumer goods that were slated to be imposed on December 15.

16 May 2019 Chinese Activity Comes Back Down to Earth--and Then Some--in April (Publication Centre)

Official industrial production growth in China plunged to 5.4% year-over-year in April, from 8.5% in March.

18 Mar 2020 Further Downgrades of our Japan GDP Forecasts (Publication Centre)

China's data on Monday were beyond dire, leading to a dramatic downward revision of our already grim Q1 GDP forecasts for the country.

18 May 2017 Political Uncertainty is set to Plague Markets for Many Months (Publication Centre)

The turmoil in Washington has begun to hit markets. We don't know how this will end, but we do know that it isn't going away quickly.

19 July 2018 China's Domestic Activity Likely Recovered in Q2 (Publication Centre)

China's official GDP data, published on Monday, showed year-over-year growth edging down to 6.7% in Q2, from 6.8% in Q1.

19 June 2018 A Trade War of Attrition Looks Likely, but the Damage for now is Minimal (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, trade negotiations have deteriorated in the last week.

19 Nov 2019 PBoC Hasn't Turned More Dovish, the Latest Cut was Housekeeping (Publication Centre)

The People's Bank of China cut its seven-day reverse-repo rate yesterday, to 2.50% from 2.55%.

19 October 2017 China's Leaders Will Allow 2018 Growth to run Below Target (Publication Centre)

President Xi Jinping started China's Party Congress yesterday with a speech setting out the priorities for the next five years.

19 February 2019 Expect to See a Further Softening in Asian Price Data this Friday (Publication Centre)

A slew of Asian price numbers are due this Friday, and they will all likely show that price gains softened further in January.

19 December 2017 The Rise in Oil Prices will Damage Japan's Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade surplus is set to fall in coming months, as domestic demand remains robust, while recent oil price increases will be a drag, lifting imports.

18 Nov 2019 A Meaningful Recovery in Chinese Capex Growth is a Distant Prospect (Publication Centre)

China's investment slowdown went from worrying to frightening in October. Last week's fixed asset investment ex-rural numbers showed that year- to-date spending grew by 5.2% year-over-year in October, marking a further slowdown from 5.4% in the year to September.

19 Aug 2019 The BoJ will Continue to Cross its Fingers on Yield Curve Inversion (Publication Centre)

An inverted curve is a widely recognised signal that a recession is around the corner, though it's worth remembering that the lags tend to be long.

19 Dec 2019 Don't Expect China's LPR to Move Much, if at all, for December (Publication Centre)

The PBoC reduced its 14-day reverse repo by 5bp to 2.65% in a routine operation yesterday.

15 May 2019 The Escalation of Trade Tensions Fans Concerns for LatAm's Upturn (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets did well in Q1, on the back of upbeat investor risk sentiment, low volatility in developed markets and a relatively benign USD.

15 July 2020 China's Trade Surplus will Continue to Come Back Down to Earth (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus plunged to $46.4B in June, from $62.9B in May, largely in line with our below- consensus forecast.

13 July 2018 China's Official Real GDP Growth will Paint a Muddled Picture for Q2 (Publication Centre)

Official, real GDP growth was low in Q1, at 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, down from 1.6% in Q4.

13 July 2020 Will the Emergence of Japan's Second Wave Derail the Recovery? (Publication Centre)

Japan's second wave of Covid-19 is in its early phase, though the virus appears to be spreading rapidly.

13 June 2017 The Eurozone and Asia's Big Economies are Joined at the Hip (Publication Centre)

In her inaugural Monitor, our Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish plots three scenarios for the Chinese economy. The best-case scenario is that China makes a smooth transition to consumer-led growth.

13 July 2017 Japanese PPI Inflation to Decelerate, but Only Modestly (Publication Centre)

Japan's producer price inflation levelled off in June and, for now, both commodity prices and currency moves in the first half imply that inflation should fall in the second half.

13 Feb 2020 Japan's M2 Still Points to a Growth Slowdown, Regardless of the Virus (Publication Centre)

Japan's money and credit data have shown signs of life in recent months, but that's all set to change quickly, due to the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.

12 May 2020 India's PMIs Show Lockdown Severity, but New Flexibility will Help (Publication Centre)

India's shocking PMIs for April leave little doubt that the second quarter will be bad enough to result in a full-year contraction in 2020 GDP, even if economic activity recovers strongly in the second half.

13 April 2018 The BoK's Pending Rate Hikes are About Debt, not Inflation (Publication Centre)

The Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 1.50% yesterday, but downgraded its inflation forecast for 2018 to 1.6% from 1.7%

13 December 2018 China's November Activity Data are Set to Disappoint (Publication Centre)

China's October activity data showed signs of the infrastructure stimulus machine sputtering into life. Consensus expectations appear to hold out for a continuation into November, but we think the numbers will be disappointing.

13 Mar 2020 QE4 Underway, Expect the Fed to Extend it Next Week (Publication Centre)

The NY Fed's announcement yesterday restarts QE. The $60B of bill purchases previously planned for the period from March 13 through April 13 will now consist of $60B purchases "across a range of maturities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding".

13 March 2018 Scandals Could Take Down Abe Would Abenomics Survive (Publication Centre)

Japan's Ministry of Finance yesterday admitted falsifying documents submitted to the country's parliament during a corruption probe last year.

14 Oct 2019 RBI Beware... Inflation in India will Soon Flirt with the 4% Target (Publication Centre)

Today's CPI report from India should raise the pressure on the RBI to abandon its aggressive easing, which has resulted in 135 basis points worth of rate cuts since February.

14 September 2017 PBoC Pushes Back on RMB Rise. Stability is Still King, for now (Publication Centre)

The RMB has risen strongly in recent months, initially with the euro and the yen, but China's currency rose on a trade-weighted basis in August.

14 September 2018 Japan's PPI Inflation will Soon Slow How Sustainable is Capex Growth (Publication Centre)

Japan's PPI inflation was unchanged, at 3.0%, in August.

15 January 2019 What can we Learn from the Weak EZ Manufacturing Data (Publication Centre)

Last week's horrible manufacturing data in the major EZ economies had already warned investors that yesterday's industrial production report for the zone as a whole would be one to forget.

14 May 2020 GDP Likely Fell even Further in April than March Data Imply (Publication Centre)

We take little comfort from the fact that the 2.0% quarter-on-quarter drop in Q1 GDP was a bit smaller than the consensus forecast, 2.5%, and the 3.0% fall pencilled-in by the MPC in its Monetary Policy Report.

14 August 2018 Did the PBoC Effectively Cut Rates in August (Publication Centre)

China's M2 growth surprised on the upside in July, rising to 8.5% year-over-year, from 8.0% in June.

13 September 2018 China's Money Headlines Tell an Old Story Conditions are Loosening (Publication Centre)

China's M2 growth slowed to 8.2% year-over-year in August, from 8.5% in July

14 Aug 2019 Japanese Policymakers Shouldn't take Domestic Demand For Granted (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q2 GDP was driven by the twin pillars of private consumption and capex.

14 August 2017 China's Slowdown Surprised Japan, Inventories to Boost Q2 GDP (Publication Centre)

Japanese domestic demand probably strengthened in Q2, with both private consumption and fixed investment accelerating. Trade and inventories are the key swing components for GDP growth.

2 Apr 2020 How Long Before the Government Lifts the Lockdown? (Publication Centre)

The duration and future scope of the current lockdown is the main uncertainty that U.K economic forecasters have to grapple with at present.

22 May 2020 Japan's Abysmal Exports Could Soon Stabilise, Looking at Korea (Publication Centre)

Japan's export data for April unsurprisingly were abysmal, driving a massive deterioration in the trade balance, which flipped from a modest ¥5B surplus in March, to a ¥930B deficit.

*February 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Expect a Rare Q/Q Fall in Chinese GDP In Q1...A Technical Recession In Japan is on the Cards...The Real Hit to Korean Trade will Start This Month...Post-Virus in Oil Will Help India's Recovery

*January 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Chinese GDP Growth Won't Trough Until Q3...The Window For BOJ Adjustments Is Narrowing...Not Buying Into Korea's Consensus-Beating Q4 GDP

*January 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China: Manuf. Green Shoots; Household Pain...Japan's Fiscal Package Faces Capacity Constraints...Korea's Q4 GDP Bump Is Iffy, But The Recovery Is On...Food Inflation In India Isn't Just About Onions

*February 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Downtrend Worse; Outlook Better..Japan's Bouncy Q4 Won't Be Repeated In Q1...Korea's Job Market Pummelled By Minimum Wage Hike

*December 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Is Stabilising, But Not Yet Recovering...Japan's Fiscal Stimulus Faces Capacity Constraints...No New Year Shock This Time For Korean Workers..India's Q3 Wasn;t A Disaster; The RBI Is Done Easing

*April 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Growing Demand-Supply Mismatch...Three Straight Quarters Of Contraction In Japan...Covid Defeated, But Korea's Economic Hit Isn't Over...An H1 Recession In India Is All But Guarenteed

*August 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Chia faces a u-shaped recovery..Japan's domestic demand strentgh is fragile...The bank of Korea is likely to pause, for now...Expect a respectable Q2 GDP rebound in India

*December 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Stimulus Faces Q4 Hurdles....Japan Bouced Back in October, But Will it Last? Growth in Korea is Set to Become Much Weaker

*June 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Punchy Q2 Implies A Quieter Q3 In China...Expect A Quieter Secord Half For The BOJ...Korean Exports Look Poised To Turn The Corner..No Bullet Was Dodged In India; Unlock 1.0 Is Risky

*July 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Recovery Will Lose Steam In H2...Tokyo's Second Wave Is Unlike The First, Good...A Capex Correction In Korea Is Imminent...India Is Making Life Harder For Itself

*March 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Delivers Stimulus; No Trough Yet...Korea and Japan Pummelled by China's Slowdown...Time for a Boj Inflation Target Rethink?

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Korea's modest consumption rebound in Q2 barely cushioned the trade blow

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update: March 9 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Covid-19 outbreaks fading in China, Korea; Elsewhere, not.

27 Feb 2020 Survey Data in France were Stable and Solid Midway through Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Covid-19 scare can be split into two stages, the initial outbreak in China, concentrated in Wuhan, and the now-worrying signs that clusters are forming in other parts of the world, primarily in South Korea, the Middle East and Italy.

5 September 2017 Geopolitical Tensions Hold Sway, the Yen is Only a Partial Safe Haven (Publication Centre)

he frequency of North Korean missile tests and attention-grabbing moves has increased markedly in recent months. Media reports now suggest that North Korea is preparing to follow its weekend nuclear test with another intercontinental ballistic missile test, in an unprecedented show of technological advancement.

*November 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Gets A 2020 GDP Growth Downgrade...Back To The Bad Old Days For Japan...Korea Points To Stabilisation In Global Trade...Plus -4% Inflation Sets Up An RBI Pause

*May 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China recovery falters...and now tariffs...Japan's Q1 gdp growth was a mirage; Korean exports are turning the corner, just...India's status quo vote won't turn growth around

*March 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Activity Data Confirm China's Nightmare Q1...Japan In For A Full-Year Contraction...Korea Should Be Able To Avoid A Technical Recession....India's Policymakers Are Reasonably Quiet, For Now

*May 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Unsustainable V-Shaped Recovery...Japan's Q1 GDP Contraction Is Just A Taster...Korea's Grim April Exports Is A Warning Shot...India's Lockdown Will Kill Q2, Despite Relaxation

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Machine tool orders in Japan are still in the doldrums.

Miguel Chanco

Miguel Chanco helps to produce Pantheon's Asia service, having covered several parts of the region for nearly ten years. He was most recently the Lead Analyst for ASEAN at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Prior to that role, Miguel focused on India and frontier markets in South Asia for Capital Economics and BMI Research, Fitch Group.

Bloomberg - Latvia Scandal Places ECB Under Spotlight as Bank Supervisor (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Latvia

index

Welcome to Pantheon Macroeconomics, leading provider of Independent Macroeconomic Research

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: Search Results: 385

pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research