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Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

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14 September 2017 August Core CPI Set to Mean-Revert to 0.2% as Temporary Factors Fade? (Publication Centre)

After five straight undershoots to consensus, with the core CPI averaging monthly gains of just 0.05%, investors are asking hard questions about the Fed's belief -- and ours -- that core inflation is headed towards 2% in the not-too-distant future.

27 Mar 2020 Jobless Claims Crystallize the Covid Disaster, More Pain to Come (Publication Centre)

The speculation is over: 3.283 million people filed a new claim for unemployment benefits last week, nearly double the 1.7M consensus forecast, which looked much too low.

14 February 2018 Gas Prices Will Lift the January CPI: Core has Risks in Both Directions (Publication Centre)

We have no real argument with the consensus forecasts for the January CPI, with the headline likely to rise by 0.3%, with the core up 0.2%.

14 Aug 2019 Trump Blinks Again, but Some Consumer Goods will be Tariffed (Publication Centre)

President Trump blinked again yesterday, delaying tariffs on some $150B-worth of Chinese consumer goods until December 15.

13 September 2018 Base Effects have Lifted Core CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

Now that the run of unfavorable base effects in the core CPI--triggered by five straight soft numbers last year--is over, we're expecting little change in the year- over-year rate through the remainder of this year.

10 August 2018 Near-Term Core Inflation Risk is Modest the Fed Fears the Future (Publication Centre)

The continued modest rate of increase in unit labor costs makes it hard to worry much about the near-term outlook for core inflation.

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