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24 May 2019 Boeing's Woes are Hitting Durable Goods Orders - the Core is OK, Just (Publication Centre)

A grim-looking headline durable goods orders number for April seems inevitable today, given the troubles at Boeing.

25 June 2019 New Home Sales Set for a Steady Summer, but New Highs in the Fall (Publication Centre)

We are fundamentally quite bullish on the housing market, given the 100bp drop in mortgage rates over the past six months and the continued strength of the labor market, but today's May new home sales report likely will be unexciting.

24 April 2019 Industrial Sentiment is Stabilizing, Despite the Richmond Fed Drop (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data were mixed, though disappointment over the weakening in the Richmond Fed survey should be tempered by a quick look at the history, shown in our first chart.

20 September 2018 Business Surveys Wobbling in the Face of Higher Rates (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the unexpectedly weak September Empire State survey, released Monday, we are now very keen to see what today's Philadelphia Fed survey has to say.

20 Nov. 2015 Will Corporate Yields Become a Good Leading Indicator Again? (Publication Centre)

In the years before the crash of 2008, if you wanted to know what was likely to happen to the pace of U.S. economic growth, all you needed to know was what happened to corporate bond yields a year earlier. The correlation between movements in BBB industrial yields--not spreads--and the changes in the rate of GDP growth, lagged by a year, was remarkably strong from 1994 through 2008, as our first chart shows. Roughly, a 50 basis point increase in yields could be expected to reduce the pace of year-over-year GDP growth--the second differential, in other words--by about 1.5 percentage points.

28 February 2019 Expect Underwhelming Q4 GDP Growth Data Today Q1 Likely Worse (Publication Centre)

We expect to learn today that the economy expanded at a 2.1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, slowing from 3.4% in the third.

28 September 2018 Mixed Signals on Industry Peak or Plateau (Publication Centre)

It seems reasonable to think that manufacturing should be doing better in the U.S. than other major economies.

4 October 2018 ADP Likely Overstates September Payrolls (Publication Centre)

The ADP employment report suggests that the hit to payrolls from Hurricane Florence was smaller than we feared, so we're revising up our forecast for the official number tomorrow to 150K, from 100K.

5 September 2018 The Surge in August's ISM is Welcome but won't be Repeated (Publication Centre)

August's 14-year high in the ISM manufacturing index, reported yesterday, clearly is a noteworthy event from a numerology perspective, but we doubt it marks the start of a renewed upward trend.

4 March 2019 Does the Flatter Phillips Curve Mean the Next Downturn will be Severe (Publication Centre)

Investors focussed last week on Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony, but he said nothing much new.

4 February 2019 Behind the Wild, Unsustainable Jobs Numbers, Wage Gains are Rising (Publication Centre)

Where to start with the January employment report, where all the key numbers were off-kilter in one way or another?

3 June 2019 Trade is Now Trump's Weapon for Everything, but it Shoots Backwards (Publication Centre)

The chance of a self-inflicted, unnecessary weakening in the economy this year, and perhaps even a recession, has increased markedly in the wake of the president's announcement on Friday that tariffs will be applied to all imports from Mexico, from June 10.

20 July 2017 The June Housing Starts Rebound is not the Start of a Boom (Publication Centre)

We would like to be able to argue with conviction that the surge in June housing starts and building permits represents the beginning of a renewed strong upward trend, but we think that's unlikely.

2 November. 2016 Brazil Industrial Output Remains Sluggish, but Q4 will be Better (Publication Centre)

Brazil's September industrial production report, released yesterday, confirmed the message from survey data that the sector stabilized towards the end of summer. Output rose 0.5 month-to-month, and August output was revised up by 0.3 percentage points.

16 July 2019 No End in Sight Yet to the Industrial Consumer Bifurcation (Publication Centre)

Today's brings the June retail sales and industrial production reports, after which we'll update our second quarter GDP forecast.

16 May 2019 The Industrial Sector is Bottoming April's IP Data are Misleading (Publication Centre)

We are not worried about the reported drop in April manufacturing output, which probably will reverse in May.

1 October 2018 The 14-year High in the ISM Likely Can't Hold, Expect a Correction (Publication Centre)

The case for believing that August's unexpected 14-year high in the ISM manufacturing index was a fluke is pretty straightforward, and it has both short and medium-term elements.

1 May 2018 ISM Manufacturing has Peaked, but don't Expect a Sudden Rollover (Publication Centre)

We're expecting the April ISM report today to bring yet more evidence that the manufacturing cycle is peaking, though we remain of the view that the next cyclical downturn is still some way off.

1 June 2018 Payrolls Likely Constrained by Trade- War Talk, AHE Hit by the Calendar? (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a 180K increase in today's May headline payroll number, a bit below the underlying trend--200K or so--for the second straight month.

16 October 2018 Q3 Consumption Rose by Nearly 4%, Despite So September Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

The softness of the headline September retail sales numbers hid a decent 0.5% increase in the "control" measure, which is the best guide to consumers' spending on non-durable goods.

17 June 2019 Peak Trade War Might Already be Past, but Strong Nerves Needed (Publication Centre)

When economic historians look back at the bizarre trade war of 2018-to-19, we think they will see Tuesday June 4 as the turning point, after which the threats of fire and brimstone were taken much less seriously, and markets began to ponder life after tariffs.

18 October. 2016 Headline Inflation is Set to Soar, Rendezvous With Core Next Spring (Publication Centre)

In September last year, headline CPI inflation stood at exactly zero. Today, we expect to see a 1.5% print, thanks mostly to the fading impact of falling energy prices.

18 October 2018 FOMC Members won't be Easily Deflected from Raising Rates (Publication Centre)

You'd be hard-pressed to read the minutes of the September FOMC meeting and draw a conclusion other than that most policymakers are very comfortable with their forecasts of one more rate hike this year, and three next year.

18 November. 2016 Yellen Still Thinks Inflation Will Hit the Target in Two Years. Hmm. (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen's Testimony yesterday pretended the election hadn't happened, and ignored the incoming administration's plans for a huge fiscal stimulus. She did address the issue under questioning, though, pointing out that fiscal stimulus could have inflationary consequences and that the Fed will have to factor-in to its decisions whatever Congress decides to do to taxes and spending.

18 January 2018 Housing Starts Likely Dipped Last Month, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Hot on the heels of yesterday's news that the NAHB index of homebuilders' sentiment and activity dropped by two points this month -- albeit from December's 18-year high -- we expect to learn today that housing starts fell last month.

1 June 2017 ADP Likely to Rebound Strongly, but Probably Will Overstate Payrolls (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a strong-looking 225K increase in the May ADP measure of private sector payroll growth, due today. The consensus forecast is 180K.

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