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17 matches for " interest rate expectations":
The ECB's communication to markets has been clear this year. In Q1, the central bank changed its stance on the economy towards an emphasis on "downside risks to the outlook".
From a macroeconomic perspective, the main shift in the ECB's policy stance last week was the change in forward guidance.
On a headline level, the ECB conformed to expectations yesterday.
The ECB will deliver a carbon copy of its December meeting today, at least in terms of the main headlines.
Bond yields in the Eurozone took another leg lower yesterday.
We have spent the past few weeks shifting our story on the EZ economy from one focused on slowing growth and downside risks to a more balanced outlook. It seems that markets are starting to agree with us.
Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs confirmed that the headline index in the euro area rebounded further last month.
Friday's data added further colour to the September CPI data for the Eurozone.
Data yesterday suggest that EZ investor sentiment is on track for a modest recovery in Q3.
Yesterday's money supply data in the Eurozone were alarmingly poor.
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Sterling rebounded last week and the probability of a Brexit, implied by betting markets, fell from 30% to 20%. The gap between cable and interest rate expectations, which opened up at the start of this year, appears to have closed completely, as our first chart shows. Sterling's rally in April quickly ran out of steam, but the evidence that support for "Bremain" has risen recently is persuasive.
We expect the official estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q4 to be revised up to 0.7% today, from last month's preliminary estimate of 0.6%. The consensus forecast is for no revision, so the data likely will boost interest rate expectations and sterling, if we're right.
A dovish speech by external MPC member Michael Saunders was the primary catalyst for a renewed fall in interest rate expectations last week.
April's GDP report, released on Monday, likely will add fuel to the fire of the re cent sharp decline in interest rate expectations.
Interest rate expectations continued to fall sharply last week.
December's meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee is likely to be a quiet affair in comparison to this month's pivotal ECB and Fed meetings. It's hard to see what news would have persuaded other members to join Ian McCafferty in voting to raise interest rates this month. The MPC might comment in the minutes to try to reverse the further fall in market interest rate expectations since its previous meeting, when it already thought they were too low. But the potency of any moderately hawkish guidance may be diluted by further strident comments from the Committee's doves.
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