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In yesterday's Monitor, we suggested that China's monetary policy stance is now easing.
GDP data for Q2 are due July 26; we expect the report to show a marginal dip in growth, to a seasonally adjusted 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, from 1.0% in Q1.
In this Monitor, befitting these uncertain times, we set out the decision tree facing Chinese policymakers.
The PBoC doesn't publicly schedule its meetings, but in recent years has tended to make moves after Fed decisions.
Over the weekend, the PBoC cut the RRR for the vast majority of banks. FX reserves data released shortly after suggested that the Bank already is propping up the currency.
Officially, Japanese wages have been falling year- over-year since January, marking a break from the gradual acceleration over the past 18 or so months.
China's growth can be decomposed into the structural story and the mini-cycle, which is policy- driven.
The PBoC has let up on its open-market operations after allowing bond yields to move higher again in October.
China's M2 growth surprised on the upside in July, rising to 8.5% year-over-year, from 8.0% in June.
China's M2 growth stabilised in November, at 8.0% year-over-year, matching the October rate.
The big difference in this round of stimulus is in the complete lack of easing on the shadow banking side.
Chinese residential property prices appear to be staging a comeback, with new home prices rising 1.1% month-on-month in June, faster than the 0.8% increase in May.
The PBoC announced on Saturday that it will publish a new Loan Prime Rate, from today, following a State Council announcement last Friday.
Money and credit data released last weekend suggest that China's demand for credit remains insatiable.
Chinese monetary conditions show signs of a temporary stabilisation. M2 growth picked up to 9.1% year-over-year in November from 8.8% in October, though largely as a correction for understated growth in recent months.
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