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27 Aug 2019 India Growth Worries are Overblown... Expect a Q2 Rebound (Publication Centre)

India's GDP report for the second quarter, due on Friday, is likely to show a decent rebound in growth from the first quarter.

24 Sept 2019 India Moves from Piecemeal to Big Bang with Huge Corporate Tax Cuts (Publication Centre)

India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman finally brought out the big guns on September 20, announcing significant cuts to corporate tax rates.

20 Nov 2019 Indian Inflation Smashes Through the RBI's Target, Setting Up a Pause (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in India jumped to 4.6% in October, from 4.0% in September, marking a 16-month high and blasting through the RBI's target.

5 June 2019 India's Q1 GDP was a Big Miss, but a Knee Jerk Cut Would be Foolish (Publication Centre)

GDP growth in India slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, as expected--see here--opening the door for the RBI to cut interest rates further at its policy announcement tomorrow.

7 Nov 2019 India Started Q4 Badly, Modi's RCEP Snub is Short-Sighted (Publication Centre)

India's PMIs for October were grim, indicating minimal carry-over of energy from the third quarter rebound.

8 March 2019 How will Markets and the Economy, Fare as India's Elections Approach (Publication Centre)

India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, yesterday held his last cabinet meeting before the general election.

8 July 2019 No Quick Relief from Food Inflation in Sight for India and China (Publication Centre)

One of the main reasons we expect the Reserve Bank of India to roll back at least one of this year's rate cuts before the end of the year is the likely further rise in food inflation.

14 Oct 2019 RBI Beware... Inflation in India will Soon Flirt with the 4% Target (Publication Centre)

Today's CPI report from India should raise the pressure on the RBI to abandon its aggressive easing, which has resulted in 135 basis points worth of rate cuts since February.

5 Dec 2019 Why We Aren't Panicking About India's Weaker Q3 GDP Print (Publication Centre)

India's headline GDP print for the third quarter was damning, with growth slowing further, to 4.5% year- over-year, from 5.0% in Q2.

14 Jan 2020 Early Signs of an IP Recovery in India Build the Case for the RBI's Pause (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in India turned around sharply in November, rising by 1.8% year-over-year, following October's 4.0% plunge and beating the consensus forecast for a trivial 0.3% uptick.

5 April 2019 The RBI is Playing with Fire Inflation Will Soon Rear its Ugly Head (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India lowered the benchmark repurchase rate by another 25 basis points yesterday, to 6.00%, as widely expected.

7 June 2019 The RBI's Third Rate Cut is Overkill a U-Turn is Likely, Soon (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted yesterday to cut the benchmark repo rate by a further 25 basis points, to 5.75%, a nine-year low.

7 Oct 2019 After the RBI's Fifth Rate Cut, Food Prices will Force a December Pause (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted unanimously on Friday to cut interest rates at a fifth straight meeting, as expected.

25 June 2019 Acharya's Resignation Won't Alter Policy, but Highlights the RBI's Flaws (Publication Centre)

The Reserve Bank of India was hit by another shock resignation yesterday, with Deputy Governor Viral Acharya confirming his early departure in late July, before the next meeting in August, and well before his term was scheduled to end at the close of this year.

8 February 2019 Shaktikanta Das Starts with a Bang, Changing the Course of RBI Policy (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India shocked most forecasters yesterday, including us, with a 4-to-2 majority voting in favour of a 25-basis point rate cut.

24 May 2019 Modi 2.0 Defies Expectations, but Economic Reality will Hit Hard (Publication Centre)

India's National Democratic Alliance, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party,

08 Jan. 2016 Sterling, Not EM Weakness, Will Hold Exports Back (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor argued in a speech on Thursday that the U.K.'s economic recovery is threatened by a "dangerous cocktail" of overseas risks, including slowing growth in the BRICs--Brazil, Russia, India, and China--and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Exports are set to struggle this year, but the strong pound, not weakness in emerging markets, will be the main drag.

19 Feb 2020 India's Slowdown is Over, GDP Growth Likely Rebounded in Q4 (Publication Centre)

India's industrial production data last week are the last set of key economic indicators for the fourth quarter, before next week's Q4 GDP report.

18 January 2019 India will Shrug Off the INR Shock, but the Ghost of 2016 is Hovering (Publication Centre)

Data over the past week give a near-complete picture of how India's economy fared in the fourth quarter.

15 May 2019 From Zero to King's Landing, how Bad Could Chinese Trade Become (Publication Centre)

Following Chinese retaliation against new U.S. tariffs last week, the U.S. responded last night, as promised, setting in train the process to slap tariffs on the remaining approximately $300B of imports from China.

14 Aug 2019 Japanese Policymakers Shouldn't take Domestic Demand For Granted (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q2 GDP was driven by the twin pillars of private consumption and capex.

13 Dec 2019 Japan's Machine Orders Hack a Hole in the Notion of Resilient Capex (Publication Centre)

We've been consistent in saying that Japanese capex would roll over this year, after strength in the first three quarters was seen by the authorities and many commentators as a sign of resilience.

16 August 2018 China's Phoenix Property Market Heats... Will it Help GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

It has been clear for some months now that China's housing market is refusing to quit, and July's data showed the phoenix rising strongly from the ashes.

16 Sept 2019 Japan's Domestic Demand Holding up Thanks to Services, it Won't Last (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index edged up 0.1% month-on-month in July, after the 0.1% decrease in June.

6 Dec 2019 Abenomics 2.0 this is not, 2020 GDP Growth will Slow Sharply (Publication Centre)

We have consistently flagged the likelihood that Japan's government would boost spending after the consumption tax hike was implemented.

26 February 2019 A U.S. China Trade Deal is in Sight Trump's Huawei U-Turn is Positive (Publication Centre)

Nothing is done until it's done, and, in the case of Sino-U.S. trade talks, even if a deal is reached, the new normal is that tensions will be bubbling in the background.

12 September 2017 Chinese PPI Overshoots, Inflation has been Sticky but Stable (Publication Centre)

Chinese PPI inflation surprised analysts with a sharp rebound to 6.3% in August, from 5.5% in July, above the consensus, 5.7%.

1 Aug 2019 Trade Talks Restart China's Woes Will Help to Keep Them Going (Publication Centre)

Trade talks between the U.S. and China officially resumed this week, with the first face-to-face meeting of the main negotiators taking place yesterday in Shanghai.

1 May 2019 New BoE Governor Unlikely to Mark Regime Shift in Monetary Policy (Publication Centre)

The government last week fired the starting gun for the contest to replace Mark Carney as Governor of the Bank of England.

*January 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China: Manuf. Green Shoots; Household Pain...Japan's Fiscal Package Faces Capacity Constraints...Korea's Q4 GDP Bump Is Iffy, But The Recovery Is On...Food Inflation In India Isn't Just About Onions

*May 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China recovery falters...and now tariffs...Japan's Q1 gdp growth was a mirage; Korean exports are turning the corner, just...India's status quo vote won't turn growth around

*February 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Expect a Rare Q/Q Fall in Chinese GDP In Q1...A Technical Recession In Japan is on the Cards...The Real Hit to Korean Trade will Start This Month...Post-Virus in Oil Will Help India's Recovery

*December 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Is Stabilising, But Not Yet Recovering...Japan's Fiscal Stimulus Faces Capacity Constraints...No New Year Shock This Time For Korean Workers..India's Q3 Wasn;t A Disaster; The RBI Is Done Easing

*August 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Chia faces a u-shaped recovery..Japan's domestic demand strentgh is fragile...The bank of Korea is likely to pause, for now...Expect a respectable Q2 GDP rebound in India

*June 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's first recourse: Secure a trade deal...The boj is reticent to join the chorus of doves...The bok won't blink, green shoots are evident...India's Q1 was poor, but rbi cuts are overkill

Miguel Chanco

Miguel Chanco helps to produce Pantheon's Asia service, having covered several parts of the region for nearly ten years. He was most recently the Lead Analyst for ASEAN at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Prior to that role, Miguel focused on India and frontier markets in South Asia for Capital Economics and BMI Research, Fitch Group.

8 February 2019 Fiscal Deadlines Promise Drama, but Probably not Crises (Publication Centre)

Two fiscal deadlines are on the near-horizon.

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