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93 matches for " housing starts":

20 July 2017 The June Housing Starts Rebound is not the Start of a Boom (Publication Centre)

We would like to be able to argue with conviction that the surge in June housing starts and building permits represents the beginning of a renewed strong upward trend, but we think that's unlikely.

18 January 2018 Housing Starts Likely Dipped Last Month, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Hot on the heels of yesterday's news that the NAHB index of homebuilders' sentiment and activity dropped by two points this month -- albeit from December's 18-year high -- we expect to learn today that housing starts fell last month.

Business Insider - US housing starts fell by the most on record in April (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Housing starts

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Housing construction likely has hit bottom.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the headline declines; core picture is improving.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong, and further gains coming.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Homebuilders still wary, but construction activity will rise over the summer.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery continues, more to come.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: A sustained surge is underway.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't worry about the undershoot; housing is strengthening rapidly.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, March and Philadelphia Fed Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Worse to come in housing; Philly Fed near the bottom.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Headlines are misleading; core activity stable.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, but not for much longer.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spectacular but clearly unsustainable.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the headline; what matters is the emerging rising trend in single-family permits.

16 March 2018 Housing Starts and Manufacturing Likely Shone in February (Publication Centre)

Today brings yet another broad array of data, with new information on housing construction, industrial production, consumer sentiment, and job openings.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Starts have further to rise, given the rebound in new home sales.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Headlines flattered massively by multi-family surge, but core single-family numbers decent too.

18 Oct 2019 Housing Investment Looks Set for a Double-Digit Q4 Jump (Publication Centre)

The declines in headline housing starts and building permits in September don't matter; both were driven by corrections in the volatile multi-family sector.

19 July 2018 Housing Investment Likely Dipped in Q2 it's the Only Point of Weakness (Publication Centre)

We can't finalize our forecast for residential investment in the second quarter until we see the June home sales reports, due next week, but in the wake of yesterday's housing starts numbers we can be pretty sure that our estimate will be a bit below zero.

BUSINESS INSIDER - Housing Starts Surge In December (Media Centre)

Housing Starts Surge In December

Financial Times - US housing starts rise for second month in April (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. housing starts

19 June 2018 Rental Inflation is Set to Rise as Vacancies fall and Demand Increases (Publication Centre)

Housing rents account for some 41% of the core CPI and 18% of the core PCE, making them hugely important determinants of the core inflation rate.

19 February 2019 How to Make Sense of Today's Eurozone Construction Data (Publication Centre)

Judging by the monthly production data, construction in the Eurozone slowed sharply in the second half of 2018.

19 Dec 2019 The Philly Fed Likely is Still Outperforming, Treat with Caution (Publication Centre)

The next couple of rounds of business surveys will capture firms' responses to the Phase One trade deal agreed last week, though the news came too late to make much, if any, difference to the December Philly Fed report, which will be released today.

19 October 2017 Leading Indicators Will be Hit by Storms, but not on the Katrina Scale (Publication Centre)

We don't use the index of leading economic indicators as a forecasting tool. If it leads the pace of growth at all, it's not by much, and in recent years it has proved deeply unreliable.

19 May 2020 Full Recovery is a Long Way Off, but Markets Trade on News and Hopes (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell's comment on Sunday's "60 Minutes", that a recovery in the economy "may take a while... it could stretch through the end of next year" did not prevent a 3% jump in the S&P 500 yesterday.

19 Apr. 2016 Weaker Dollar Will Boost Q2 Retail Sales, but not March Consumption (Publication Centre)

If we're right in our view that the strength of the dollar has been a major factor depressing the rate of growth of nominal retail sales, the weakening of the currency since January should soon be reflected in stronger-looking numbers. In real terms--which is what matters for GDP and, ultimately, the lab or market--nothing will change, but perceptions are important and markets have not looked kindly on the dollar-depressed sales data.

19 May 2020 Japan's Q1 Contraction was Just a Taster, the Q2 Hit will be Worse (Publication Centre)

Japan's economy contracted by 0.9% quarter-on- quarter in Q1, following a downwardly-revised 1.9% plunge in the previous quarter.

19 Nov 2019 The End of the Impeachment Process, Push, Jump, or Stay (Publication Centre)

As the impeachment hearings gather momentum, we have been asked to provide a cut-out-and-keep guide to the possible outcomes.

18 June 2019 Chainstore Sales Growth is Set to Slow Sharply Don't Worry (Publication Centre)

The chainstore sales numbers have been hard to read over the past year.

17 October 2018 Did FOMC Members Discuss Rising R-star at the September Meeting (Publication Centre)

The median of FOMC members' estimates of longer run nominal r-star--the rate which would maintain full employment and 2% inflation--nudged up by a tenth in September to 3.0%, implying real r-star of 1%.

20 Dec 2019 Expect a Benign November Core PCE, but Change is Coming in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Under normal circumstances, the 0.23% increase in the core CPI, reported earlier this month, would be enough to ensure a 0.2% print in today's core PCE deflator.

18 Dec 2019 Boeing's Production Cut will Depress GDP Slightly, IP Hit Much Harder (Publication Centre)

Boeing's announcement that it will temporarily cut production of 737MAX aircraft to zero in January, from the current 42 per month pace, will depress first quarter economic growth, though not by much.

18 July 2018 Powell Says Everything's on Track Gradual Hike to Continue, "for now" (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell delivered no great surprises in his semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday, but he did hint, at least, at the idea that interest rates might at some point have to rise more quickly than shown in the current dot plot: "... the FOMC believes that - for now - the best way forward is to keep gradually raising the federal funds rate [our italics]."

18 June 2020 Scope for Disappointment in Jobless Claims, if State Data are Reliable (Publication Centre)

We're braced for disappointing jobless claims numbers today.

18 October 2018 FOMC Members won't be Easily Deflected from Raising Rates (Publication Centre)

You'd be hard-pressed to read the minutes of the September FOMC meeting and draw a conclusion other than that most policymakers are very comfortable with their forecasts of one more rate hike this year, and three next year.

18 Mar. 2015 "Patient" to go, thanks to better growth, Labor market forecasts (Publication Centre)

We expect the Fed to drop "patient" from its post-meeting statement today, paving the way for a rate hike in June, data permitting. And the data will permit, in our view, despite what seems to have been a long run of disappointing numbers, and the likelihood that inflation will fall further below the Fed's 2% informal target in the near-term.

18 Sept 2019 Will the Fed Forecast Meaningfully Higher Tariff-Induced Inflation (Publication Centre)

We'd be very surprised to see anything other than a 25bp rate cut from the Fed today, alongside a repeat of the key language from July, namely, that the Committee "... will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion".

27 Nov 2019 The Brazilian Real Weakens Further, Despite Improving Fundamentals (Publication Centre)

The BRL remains under severe stress, despite renewed signals of a sustained economic recovery and strengthening expectations that the end of the monetary easing cycle is near.

17 Oct 2019 September IP Hit by the GM Strike, but the Trend is Soft too (Publication Centre)

The GM strike will make itself felt in the September industrial production data, due today.

27 July 2020 Economic Momentum has Stalled, GDP Could Easily Fall in August (Publication Centre)

With just five days of July remaining, it seems likely that the trends in most of the key near-real-time indicators will end the month close to the levels seen at the end of June.

24 Feb 2020 Virus-Induced Nerves will Persist until Non-China Cases Decline (Publication Centre)

While we were out last week, market nervousness over the Covid-19 outbreak intensified, though most key indicators of the spread of the infection continued to improve.

30 April 2019 Q1 Data have Spooked Japanese Policymakers is it Temporary (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q1 is coming more sharply into focus.

4 October 2018 Japan Looks Set for a Weak Q3 Unsurprising After the Q2 Leap (Publication Centre)

Japan's real GDP seems unlikely to have risen in Q3, and could even have edge down quarter-on- quarter, after the 0.7% leap in Q2.

8 March 2019 Payrolls Constrained by Reversals of Weather and Shutdown Boosts (Publication Centre)

Our below-consensus 125K forecast for today's February payroll number is predicated on two ideas.

8 March 2019 January's GDP Report to Reassure that Recession Risks Remain Low (Publication Centre)

The sharp 0.4% month-to-month fall in GDP in December and the slump in the Markit/CIPS PMIs towards 50 have created the impression the economy is on the cusp of recession.

22 Nov 2019 Don't Worry About the Uptick in Jobless Claims, Unless it Persists (Publication Centre)

Back-to-back elevated weekly jobless claims numbers prove nothing, but they have grabbed our attention.

22 Jan. 2015 Should We Be Scared by the Flattening Curve? (Publication Centre)

The flattening of the curve in recent months has been substantial, but in our view it is telling us little, if anything, about the outlook for growth. More than anything else, investors in longer Treasuries care about inflation, and the likely path of headline inflation clearly has been lowered by the plunge in oil prices.

21 Jan 2020 The Drop in Job Openings is Old News, Hard Data are Outperforming (Publication Centre)

Just as we turned more positive on the labor market, following three straight months of payroll gains outstripping the message from an array of surveys, the Labor Department's JOLTS report shows that the number of job openings plunged in November.

20 September 2018 Business Surveys Wobbling in the Face of Higher Rates (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the unexpectedly weak September Empire State survey, released Monday, we are now very keen to see what today's Philadelphia Fed survey has to say.

21 Jan. 2015 - Spending Not Yet Surging in the Wake of Cheaper Gas, But it Will (Publication Centre)

So far, the surge in retail spending promised by the plunge in gasoline prices has not materialized. The latest Redbook chain store sales numbers dipped below the gently rising trend last week, perhaps because of severe weather, but the point is that the holiday season burst of spending has not been maintained.

21 May 2019 Japan's Q1 GDP Rose for the Wrong Reasons Tax Hike Still Questionable (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, Japanese GDP came thumping home in Q1, rising 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, after the 0.4% increase in Q4.

21 November 2018 The Curious Case of the Crash in the French Housing Market (Publication Centre)

The French economy has suffered from weakness in manufacturing this year, alongside the other major EZ economies.

21 Nov 2019 The Philly Fed Looks Great, but it's a Huge Outlier and Can't be Trusted (Publication Centre)

If the only manufacturing survey you track is the Philadelphia Fed report, you could be forgiven for thinking that the sector is booming.

20 Nov 2019 Housing Construction is Trending Higher, Further Gains Ahead (Publication Centre)

The recent increases in single-family housing construction are consistent with the rise in new home sales, triggered by the substantial fall in mortgage rates over the past year.

17 Dec 2019 Behind the Rebound in November IP, the Underlying Trend is Flat (Publication Centre)

The November industrial production numbers will be dominated by the rebound in auto production following the end of the GM strike.

15 November 2018 Japan's Q3 GDP Drops Q4 will be Better but Trends are Deteriorating (Publication Centre)

Japanese leading indicators point to a slowdown, and the trend over this volatile year is emerging as firmly downward.

15 May 2020 Japan's H1 GDP will be Horrible, Spread of Damage is Less Certain (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP likely dropped by 1.1% quarter- on-quarter in the first quarter, even from the favourable Q4 base, when it fell by 1.8%.

15 Oct 2019 The China Trade Nothingburger won't Turn the Economy Around (Publication Centre)

The New York Times called the China trade agreement reached Friday "half a deal", but that's absurdly generous.

16 Apr. 2015 Manufacturing constrained by the Oil capex collapse (Publication Centre)

More evidence emerged yesterday of the fading impact of the severe winter on the data, in the form of the strength of the NAHB survey and the weakness of the headline industrial production number.

17 November 2017 Manufacturing Output Rebounds, but no Boom Coming (Publication Centre)

The spectacular 1.3% rebound in manufacturing output last month -- the biggest jump in seven years, apart from an Easter-distorted April gain -- does not change our core view that activity in the sector is no longer accelerating.

16 August. 2016 Core CPI Inflation is Set for New Cycle Highs, but Not Just Yet (Publication Centre)

Core CPI inflation plunged in the aftermath of the crash, reaching a low of 0.6% in October 2010. It then rebounded to a peak of 2.3% in the spring of 2012, before subsiding to a range from 1.6-to-1.9%, held down by slow wage gains and the strengthening dollar, until late last year. Faster increases in services prices and rents lifted core inflation to 2.3% in February, matching the 2012 high, but it has since been unchanged, net.

15 Jan 2020 The Rise in Continuing Jobless Claims is No Cause for Concern (Publication Centre)

The weekly jobless claims numbers are due Thursday, as usual, but in the wake of a flood of emails from readers, all asking a variant of the same question-- should we be worried about the rise in continuing jobless claims?--we want to address the issue now.

14 January 2019 November's Pick up in GDP Growth is Noise, not Signal (Publication Centre)

A cursory glance at November's GDP report gives the misleading impression that the U.K. economy is ticking over nicely, despite Brexit.

12 February 2019 Japan's GDP Bounce-Back in Q4 will be Driven by Domestic Demand (Publication Centre)

Japan's preliminary GDP report for Q4 is out on Thursday, and we expect to see a punchy number.

10 Dec 2019 Japan's Revised Q3 GDP Growth Reveals a bit More of the Tax Impact (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP growth was revised up, to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.1% in the preliminary reading.

12 June 2020 Main Capex Pinch in Japan will be in Q3, Stimulus Cushion is Limited (Publication Centre)

Core machine orders in Japan collapsed in April, as expected, falling by 12.0% month-on-month, worse than the minor 0.4% slip in March.

13 Jan 2020 Labor Market Strength Means no Need for the Fed to Ease this Year (Publication Centre)

Here's the bottom line: U.S. businesses appear to have over-reacted to the impact of the trade war in their responses to most surveys, pointing to a serious downturn in economic growth which has not materialized.

14 Jan 2020 Core CPI Inflation is Contained, but Risks Abound for December (Publication Centre)

Our base case is that the core CPI rose 0.2% in December, but the net risk probably is to the upside. We see scope for significant increases in sectors as diverse as used autos, apparel, healthcare, and rent, but nothing is guaranteed.

13 November 2018 Will Poor Sentiment and Political Uncertainty Knock EZ Investment (Publication Centre)

The outlook for private investment in the Eurozone has deteriorated this year, especially in manufacturing.

16 February 2018 Healthcare Costs Drove up January's Core PPI (Publication Centre)

Having panicked at the January hourly earnings numbers, markets now seem to have decided that higher inflation might not be such a bad thing after all, and stocks rallied after both Wednesday's core CPI overshoot and yesterday's repeat performance in the PPI.

16 Dec 2019 The Trade Deal Should Lift Business Sentiment, but Modestly (Publication Centre)

The "Phase One" China trade deal announced late last week is a step in the right direction, but a small one. With no official text available as we reach our deadline, we're relying on media reporting, but the outline of the agreement is clear.

17 July. 2015 Will June Core Inflation Reflect the Upside Surprise in the PPI? (Publication Centre)

June's headline CPI, due this morning, will be boosted by the rebound in gasoline prices, but market focus will be on the core, in the wake of the startling, broad-based jump in the core PPI, reported Wednesday. Core PPI consumer goods prices jumped by 0.7% in June, with big incr eases in the pharmaceuticals, trucks and cigarette components, among others. The year-over-year rate of increase rose to 3.0%, up from 2.1% at the turn of the year and the biggest gain since August 2012. Then, the trend was downwards.

16 Jan 2020 No Repeat of the December 2018 Plunge in Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

Ahead of the release of the retail sales report for December 2018, markets expected to see unchanged non-auto sales.

17 June 2020 May Retail Sales were Startling, but not as Good as the Headlines (Publication Centre)

Here's something we didn't expect to write: The control measure of retail sales in May was slightly higher than in February.

17 June. 2016 As Core Inflation Rises, Upside Wage Risks Increase Too (Publication Centre)

Core CPI inflation is heading for 2½% by the end of this year, and perhaps sooner. The trend in the monthly numbers is now a solid 0.2%, and that's before the weaker dollar arrests the decline in goods prices. Goods account for only a quarter of the core CPI, and right now they are the only part of the index under downward pressure. If--when--that changes, core inflation could rise quite rapidly.

17 May 2018 Labor Market Indicators are Contradictory, Which to Trust? (Publication Centre)

Some of the recent labor market data appear contradictory. For example, the official JOLTS measure of the number of job openings has spiked to an all-time high, and the number of openings is now greater than the number of unemployed people, for the first time since the data series begins, in 2001.

17 Mar. 2015 Plunging Temperatures Boost Utilities, Depress Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

The February industrial production numbers were flattered by an enormous 7.3% jump in the output of electricity and gas utility companies, thanks to a surge in demand in the face of the extraordinarily cold weather. February this year was the coldest since at least 1997, when comparable data on population weighted heating degree days begin.

17 January 2018 Severe Weather Likely Depressed Homebuilders' Sentiment (Publication Centre)

At the end of last year, U.S. homebuilders were more optimistic than at any time in the previous 18 years, according to the monthly NAHB survey.

17 July 2020 The Surge in Retail Sales is not all that it Seems--and it Might not Last (Publication Centre)

Headline retail sales in June were just 1% below their January peak, and about 3% below the level they would have reached if the pre-Covid trend had continued.

17 Jan 2020 Manufacturing is Stagnating, but a Modest H1 Upturn is a Fair Bet (Publication Centre)

The trend in manufacturing output probably is about flat, with no real prospect of any serious improvement in the near term.

16 March 2018 Weak Data Suggest the MPC Won't Clearly Signal a May Hike Next Week (Publication Centre)

In order to support current market pricing, the MPC will have to be more specific about the timing of the next rate hike in the minutes of next Thursday's meeting.

16 Oct 2019 Did Pre-Tariff Spending Boost September Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

Tariffs are a tax on imported goods, and higher taxes depress growth, other things equal.

16 May 2019 The Industrial Sector is Bottoming April's IP Data are Misleading (Publication Centre)

We are not worried about the reported drop in April manufacturing output, which probably will reverse in May.

17 Apr. 2015 Core Inflation not yet slowing after energy price collapse (Publication Centre)

The plunge in gas prices since their peak last summer likely will exert modest downward pressure on core inflation by the end of this year, via reduced costs of production and distribution, but it probably is too soon to start looking for these effects now.

17 April 2018 The Manufacturing Rebound Continues, but Expect a Soft March (Publication Centre)

Over the past 18 months, the year-over-year rate of growth of manufacturing output has swung from minus 2.1% to plus 2.5%.

18 July 2019 Multi-family Construction has Peaked Vacancy Rate to Fall Further (Publication Centre)

The declines in headline housing starts and building permits in June don't matter; both were depressed by declines in the wildly volatile multi-family components.

16 May 2018 Downside Risks to April Housing Construction, IP Looks Strong (Publication Centre)

We see downside risk to the housing starts numbers for April, due today. Our core view on housing market activity, both sales and construction activity, is that the next few months, through the summer, will be broadly flat-to-down.

18 Mar. 2016 Medical Costs are Accelerating, but Goods Will Lift Core PCE Too (Publication Centre)

In the excitement over the FOMC meeting--all things are relative--we ran out of space to cover some of this week's other data, notably the PPI, industrial production and housing starts. They are worth a recap, given that only the Michigan sentiment report will be released today.

22 Jan 2020 Existing Home Sales to Rise in H1, Whatever Happened in December (Publication Centre)

The weather-driven surge in December housing starts, reported last week, is unlikely to be replicated in today's existing home sales numbers for the same month.

16 June 2017 Housing Construction Should Rebound (Publication Centre)

We were surprised by the weakness of the April housing starts report; we expected a robust recovery after the March numbers were depressed by the severe snowstorms across a large swathe of the country. Instead, single-family permits rose only trivially and multi-family activity--which is always volatile--fell by 9% month-to-month.

20 Feb. 2015 Data Surprises Don't Tell Us Much About the Economy (Publication Centre)

At the headline level, much of the recent U.S. macro dataflow has been disappointing. January retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and both ISM surveys--manufacturing and non-manufacturing-- undershot consensus, following a sharp and unexpected drop in December durable goods orders.

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