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20 Nov 2019 Housing Construction is Trending Higher, Further Gains Ahead (Publication Centre)

The recent increases in single-family housing construction are consistent with the rise in new home sales, triggered by the substantial fall in mortgage rates over the past year.

18 October 2017 Housing Activity is Poised for a Hefty Q4 Rebound as Demand Rebounds (Publication Centre)

Today brings the September housing construction report, which likely will show that activity was depressed by the hurricanes.

19 December 2017 New Home Sales and Construction Appear Set to Rocket Next Year (Publication Centre)

In the short-term, all the housing data are volatile. But you can be sure that if the recent pace of new home sales is sustained, housing construction will rise.

19 October. 2016 Housing Construction has Faltered - Outlook is Cloudy (Publication Centre)

We have given up, more or less, on the idea that housing construction will be a serious driver of economic growth in this cycle. The next cycle should be different, but it was never realistic to expect the sector which brought down the economy to recover fully as soon as the dust settled.

21 November 2018 The Curious Case of the Crash in the French Housing Market (Publication Centre)

The French economy has suffered from weakness in manufacturing this year, alongside the other major EZ economies.

23 Aug 2019 Chair Powell will Struggle to Meet Market Expectations Today (Publication Centre)

It's going to be very hard for Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech today to satisfy markets, which now expect three further rate cuts by March next year.

25 April 2018 Mortgage Demand Faltering in the Face of Higher Rates (Publication Centre)

Today brings new housing market data, in the form of the weekly applications numbers from the MBA. The weekly data are seasonally adjusted but are still very volatile, especially in the spring.

21 Jan 2020 The Drop in Job Openings is Old News, Hard Data are Outperforming (Publication Centre)

Just as we turned more positive on the labor market, following three straight months of payroll gains outstripping the message from an array of surveys, the Labor Department's JOLTS report shows that the number of job openings plunged in November.

26 Aug 2019 Powell's Speech no Match for the Blizzard of Trump Tweets (Publication Centre)

After three days of jaw-dropping actions from President Trump, the position seems to be this: The U.S. will apply 15% tariffs on imported Chinese consumer goods, rather than the previously promised 10%, effective in two stages on September 1 and December 15.

20 Aug 2019 Third Quarter Growth Looks OK on the Surface Details Less Good (Publication Centre)

Halfway through the third quarter, we have no objection to the idea that GDP growth likely will exceed 2% for the third straight quarter.

2 Jan 2020 The Post-Tariffs Plunge in Imports Continues, but not Forever (Publication Centre)

While were out over the holidays, the single biggest surprise in the data was yet another drop in imports, reported in the advance trade numbers for November.

20 October. 2016 Are Jobless Claims Really at a 43-Year Low?  (Publication Centre)

The recent jobless claims numbers have been spectacularly good, with the absolute level dropping unexpectedly in the past two weeks to a 43-year low. The four-week moving average has dropped by a hefty 14K since late August.

21 February 2018 Downside Risk for January Home Sales, but Expect a Decent Spring (Publication Centre)

Today's housing market data likely will look soft, but will probably not be representative of the underlying story, which remains quite positive.

28 May 2020 Downward Pressure on Wages will Hold Down Inflation (Publication Centre)

Beyond the immediate wild swings in prices for food, clothing, hotel rooms and airline fares, the medium-term impact of the Covid outbreak on U.S. inflation will depend substantially on the impact on the pace of wage growth.

4 Feb 2020 Consumer Fundamentals Will Support Spending, Look at Redbook (Publication Centre)

The fundamentals underpinning our forecast of solid first half growth in consumers' spending remain robust.

7 December 2017 Job Gains Easily Strong Enough to Push Unemployment Down Further (Publication Centre)

We were a bit disappointed by the November ADP employment report, though a 190K reading in the 102nd month of a cyclical expansion is hardly a disaster.

8 Nov 2019 The RMB Rally is Understandable, but Let's not Over-egg it (Publication Centre)

The RMB has been on a tear, as expectations for a "Phase One" trade deal have firmed.

3 Jan 2020 Manufacturing Still Struggling, but no Longer Sinking Deeper (Publication Centre)

The substantial gap between the key manufacturing surveys for the U.S. and China, relative to their long-term relationship, likely narrowed a bit in December.

3 Dec 2019 Chainstore Sales for Thanksgiving Week Usually Look Good, but... (Publication Centre)

The Redbook chainstore sales survey today is likely to give the superficial impression that the peak holiday shopping season got off to a robust start last week.

27 September 2017 Yellen is Following the Tightening Labor Market, it's Telling her to Hike (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen's speech in Cleveland yesterday elaborated on the key themes from last week's FOMC meeting.

2 Dec 2019 Business Sentiment Likely has Hit Bottom, but Hard Data Still Softening (Publication Centre)

We're reasonably happy with the idea that business sentiment is stabilizing, albeit at a low level, but that does not mean that all the downside risk to economic growth is over.

28 November. 2016 The Housing Slowdown Next Year Will be Offset by Fiscal Easing (Publication Centre)

We have been asked how we can justify raising our growth forecasts but at the same time arguing that the housing market is set to weaken quite dramatically, thanks to the clear downshift in mortgage applications in recent months. Applications peaked back in June, so this is not just a story about the post-election rise in mortgage rates.

26 March 2019 Consumers are Cash-Rich and Confident Don't Worry About Them (Publication Centre)

When Fed Chair Powell said last week that the "surprise" weakness in the official retail sales numbers is "inconsistent with a significant amount of other data", we're guessing that he had in mind a couple of reports which will be updated today.

19 June 2018 Rental Inflation is Set to Rise as Vacancies fall and Demand Increases (Publication Centre)

Housing rents account for some 41% of the core CPI and 18% of the core PCE, making them hugely important determinants of the core inflation rate.

17 November 2017 Manufacturing Output Rebounds, but no Boom Coming (Publication Centre)

The spectacular 1.3% rebound in manufacturing output last month -- the biggest jump in seven years, apart from an Easter-distorted April gain -- does not change our core view that activity in the sector is no longer accelerating.

19 October 2017 Q3's Slowdown in EZ Construction is no Threat, the Trend is Firm (Publication Centre)

The upturn in the Eurozone construction sector likely paused in Q3. Yesterday's August report showed that output fell 0.2% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate down to +1.6%, from a revised +2.8% in July.

15 January 2019 The Trade War is not the Only Factor Hurting Stocks, but it's the Biggest (Publication Centre)

In our Monitor of January 10, we argued that the market turmoil in Q4 was largely driven by the U.S.- China trade war, and that a resolution--which we expect by the spring, at the latest--would trigger a substantial easing of financial conditions.

1 Oct 2019 ISM Manufacturing Likely Rose a bit in September, but it Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

The obsession of markets and the media with the industrial sector means that today's ISM manufacturing survey will be scrutinized far more closely than is justified by its real importance.

18 June 2020 Scope for Disappointment in Jobless Claims, if State Data are Reliable (Publication Centre)

We're braced for disappointing jobless claims numbers today.

17 Dec 2019 Behind the Rebound in November IP, the Underlying Trend is Flat (Publication Centre)

The November industrial production numbers will be dominated by the rebound in auto production following the end of the GM strike.

19 June 2019 The Fed Will Commit to Ease if "Appropriate" it isn't, Yet (Publication Centre)

The Fed will leave rates unchanged today.

18 May 2018 Second Quarter Growth Started Strongly, but a Long Way to go (Publication Centre)

The half-way point of the quarter is not, alas, the half-way point of the data flow for the quarter.

19 July 2017 Falling CPI Physicians Fees are a Response to Rising Part B Premiums (Publication Centre)

The closer we look at the data, the more convinced we become that the rollover in CPI physicians' services prices, which has subtracted nearly 0.1% from core CPI inflation since January, is a response to sharply higher Medicare part B premiums, especially for new enrollees.

18 Oct 2019 Housing Investment Looks Set for a Double-Digit Q4 Jump (Publication Centre)

The declines in headline housing starts and building permits in September don't matter; both were driven by corrections in the volatile multi-family sector.

16 June 2017 Housing Construction Should Rebound (Publication Centre)

We were surprised by the weakness of the April housing starts report; we expected a robust recovery after the March numbers were depressed by the severe snowstorms across a large swathe of the country. Instead, single-family permits rose only trivially and multi-family activity--which is always volatile--fell by 9% month-to-month.

16 May 2018 Downside Risks to April Housing Construction, IP Looks Strong (Publication Centre)

We see downside risk to the housing starts numbers for April, due today. Our core view on housing market activity, both sales and construction activity, is that the next few months, through the summer, will be broadly flat-to-down.

20 December 2017 Single-Family Permits Hit a Cycle High, Q1 Construction Set to Jump (Publication Centre)

The single most important number in the housing construction report is single-family permits, because they lead starts by a month or two but are much less volatile.

17 August. 2016 Oil Sector Capex is Rebounding, and Will Add to Q3 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

The most important number released yesterday was hidden well behind the headline inflation, production and housing construction data. We have been waiting to see how quickly the upturn in the number of rigs in operation would translate into rising oil and gas well-drilling, and now we know: In July, well-drilling jumped by 4.7%

20 September. 2016 Homebuilders Need to Catch up to Rising Sales - Expect a Q4 Surge (Publication Centre)

The information available to date--which is still very incomplete--suggests that new housing construction will decline in the third quarter. This would be the second straight decline, following the 6.1% drop in Q2. We aren't expecting such a large fall in the third quarter, but it is nonetheless curious that housing investment--construction, in other words--is falling at a time when new home sales have risen sharply.

23 August. 2016 Rental Inflation Set to Rise Further as Vacancies Hit a New Cycle Low (Publication Centre)

This week brings home sales data for July, which we expect will be mixed. New home sales likely rose a bit, but we are pretty confident that existing home sales will be reported down, following four straight gains. We're still expecting a clear positive contribution to GDP growth from housing construction in the third quarter, but from the Fed's perspective the more immediate threat comes from the rate of increase of housing rents, rather than the pace of home sales.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Housing construction likely has hit bottom.

16 March 2018 Housing Starts and Manufacturing Likely Shone in February (Publication Centre)

Today brings yet another broad array of data, with new information on housing construction, industrial production, consumer sentiment, and job openings.

Consistently Right

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