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21 July. 2016 Upside Risk for July Existing Home Sales - Price Gains Should Rebound (Publication Centre)

A very light week for U.S. data concludes today with four economic reports, which likely will be mixed, relative to the consensus forecasts. The recent run of clear upside surprises and robust-looking headline numbers is likely over, for the most part.

2 June 2017 The Manufacturing Sector won't put the Economy Back on Track (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector's recovery has sped up since Q1, according to Markit's latest survey, but growth still looks too weak to prevent the overall economy from struggling again in Q2.

22 May 2017 The Housing Market is Weakening, but Lasting Price Falls aren't Likely (Publication Centre)

Even the most bullish estate agent in Britain would struggle to put a positive spin on the latest housing market news. The latest levels of the official, Nationwide, and Halifax measures of house prices all are below their peaks.

24 May. 2016 The Weaker Dollar Will Lift Nominal Retail Sales Growth (Publication Centre)

The recent run of grim sales and earnings numbers from major national retailers, including Kohl's, Nordstrom, and Macy's, reflects two major trends. The first is obvious; the rising market share of internet sales is squeezing brick and mortar retailers, as our first chart shows. We have no idea how far this trend has yet to run but it shows no signs yet of peaking.

24 September 2018 Good News on Brazil Inflation, but all Eyes are on the Presidential Race (Publication Centre)

Broad-based inflation pressures in Brazil remain tame despite the sharp BRL depreciation this year, totalling about 7% in the last three months alone.

19 July. 2016 Why is Homebuilding not Keeping Pace with Demand? (Publication Centre)

The sustained upturn in mortgage applications since last fall ought to have driven up the pace of new home construction quite sharply. But our first chart shows that single-family building permit issuance--we use permits rather than starts, as they are much less volatile--rose only 8.3% year-over-year in the three months to May, while applications for new mortgages to finance house purchase jumped by 18.8% over the same period.

15 November 2017 Chinese October Activity Data Were Mixed but Will Weaken Over Winter (Publication Centre)

The Chinese activity data published yesterday were a mixed bag, with headline retail sales and production weakening, while FAI growth was stable. We compile our own indices for all three, to crosscheck the official versions.

10 April 2018 Don't Mistake the Jump in Halifax's HPI for an Improving Trend (Publication Centre)

Halifax's house price index rose by an eye catching 1.5% month-to-month in March, superficially suggesting that the housing market is reviving.

11 November. 2016 Will the Housing Market Recovery Hit Affordability Buffers? (Publication Centre)

After wobbling immediately after the referendum, house prices appear to be back on a rising trajectory. The Halifax measure of house prices, which is based on the lenders' mortgage offers, rose by 1.4% month-to-month in October, following a 0.3% increase in September.

12 Feb. 2016 Collapse in Equity Prices Still Not a Convincing Signal of Recession (Publication Centre)

The downturn in equity prices deepened yesterday, with the FTSE 100 index closing at 5,537, 22% below its April 2015 peak. We remain unconvinced, however, that financial market turmoil is set to push the U.K. economy into a recession. We continue to take comfort from the weakness of the past relationship between equity prices and economic activity.

12 September 2018 How Much is the Spanish Economy Slowing This Year (Publication Centre)

The Spanish economy remains the stand-out performer in the Eurozone, but recent data suggest that growth is slowing.

24 October 2017 China's Property Slowdown Intensifies, More to Come (Publication Centre)

In his opening speech at the Party Congress, President Xi received warm applause for his comment that houses are "for living in, not for speculation".

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