Pantheon Macroeconomics - Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

Search Results: 177
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

Sorry, but our website is best viewed on a device with a screen width greater than 320px. You can contact us at: info@pantheonmacro.com.

Website Search

Search Results

177 matches for " households":

20 December 2016 Will Households Drain Housing Equity to Support Consumption? (Publication Centre)

One of the most surprising features of the economic recovery has been that households have not responded to the surge in house prices by releasing housing equity to fund consumption. Housing equity rose to 4.2 times annual disposable incomes in 2015, up from 3.7 in 2012. It has more than doubled over the last two decades.

10 October 2018 Why aren't Households Draining Plentiful Housing Equity? (Publication Centre)

The economy's recovery from the 2008/09 recession has been weaker than after the previous two downturns partly because households have not depleted housing equity to fund consumption.

24 November 2017 GDP Growth Remains too Reliant on Households Saving Less (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second estimate of Q3 GDP confirmed that the U.K. economy has underperformed this year.

13 August 2018 Japan's Households Finally Stage a Come Back, Time for a BoJ Hike? (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP growth came roaring back in Q2, thanks to a strong rebound in private consumption, and an acceleration in business capex.

21 December 2017 Q3 Accounts to Reveal Temporary Supports to Households' Spending (Publication Centre)

The national accounts, released on Friday, likely will restate that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth picked up to 0.4% in Q3, from 0.3% in Q2.

2 October 2018 Money Data Indicate the Recent Revival in Retail Sales Can't Last (Publication Centre)

August's money and credit figures show that households' incomes remain under pressure, indicating that the recent pick-up in growth in consumers' spending likely won't last.

19 Nov. 2015 Is Another Unsecured Credit Bubble Developing? (Publication Centre)

A sharp increase in unsecured borrowing has played a big role in supporting consumers' spending over the past year. The stock of unsecured credit, excluding student loans, increased by 8.2% year-over-year in September--the fastest growth since February 2006--boosting the funds available for households to spend by around 1%.

4 July 2018 Rising Household Saving Likely will Keep Spending Growth Subdued (Publication Centre)

The economy would have ground to a halt last year had households not reduced their saving rate sharply.

5 July 2017 The Consumer Slowdown will Ripple out to the Services Sector Soon (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in quarter-on-quarter growth in households' real spending to 0.4% in Q1--just half 2016's average rate--was driven entirely by a 0.1% fall in purchases of goods. Households' spending on services, by contrast, continued to grow briskly. Indeed, the 0.8% quarter-on-quarter rise in households' real spending on services exceeded 2016's average 0.5% rate.

27 February 2017 Will the Surge in Equity Prices Support Consumption? (Publication Centre)

Last week's GDP figures illustrated that the economy is extremely vulnerable to a slowdown in households' spending. Our chart of the week, on page three, shows that consumers were alone in making a significant positive contribution to GDP growth last year.

16 June 2017 Chinese Growth to Slump Under the Burden of Deleveraging (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's money data confirmed that Chinese households have continued to borrow into Q2 but at a slower rate than in 2016. The slowdown will really set in during the second half, and into 2018. Households have done a sterling job of taking over the borrowing baton from corporates, but they can't do everything.

21 July 2017 Q2 Consumption will be Weak, Despite the Pickup in Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, June's retail sales figures suggest that households have splurged in Q2, re-energising GDP growth after its slowdown in Q1. Sales volumes rose by 0.6% month-to-month in June, completing a 1.5% quarter-on-quarter jump in Q2.

13 April 2017 Slowing Labour Income Growth Highlights Consumers' Woes (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's labour market data showed that growth in households' income has slowed significantly in recent months. Firms are both hiring cautiously and restraining wage increases, due to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook and rising raw material and non-wage labour costs. Consumers' spending, therefore, will support GDP growth to a far smaller extent this year than last.

10 April 2019 Retail Sales Likely Dipped in March, but Remain Firmly on a Rising Path (Publication Centre)

Our view that households will continue to spend more in the first half of this year, preventing the economy from slipping into a capex-led recession, was not seriously challenged yesterday by the BRC's Retail Sales Monitor.

19 February 2018 Growth in Households' Spending Won't Recover This Year (Publication Centre)

Slower growth in households' spending was the main reason why the economy lost momentum last year.

23 January 2018 Eurozone Households Enter 2018 With Robust Tailwinds (Publication Centre)

Today's data likely will show that EZ households' sentiment remained close to a record high at the start of the year.

6 February 2017 EZ Households are in Good Shape, But Spending Will Slow in 2017 (Publication Centre)

Consumers' spending in the euro area weakened at the end of Q4, but we think households will continue to boost GDP growth in the first quarter. Data on Friday showed that retail sales fell 0.3% month-to-month in December, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.1%, from a revised 2.8% in November.

31 January 2018 Growth in Households' Spending ending (Publication Centre)

December's money and credit figures suggest that households are in no fit state to step up and drive the economy forwards this year.

13 February 2018 Brazilian Households are in Good Shape, Despite Ending Q4 Poorly (Publication Centre)

Consumers' spending in Brazil weakened at the end of Q4, but we think households will support GDP growth in the first quarter.

4 September 2017 Will the Economy be Hit by a Snap Back in Households' Saving Ratio? (Publication Centre)

Households' decision to reduce their saving rate sharply was the main reason why economic growth exceeded forecasters' expectations in the aftermath of the Brexit vote.

EURO INSIGHT - Households Save the Day for Eurozone GDP (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone GDP

15 February 2017 Poor Brazilian Retail Sales don't Change the Improving Trend (Publication Centre)

Brazil's consumer spending data yesterday appeared downbeat. Retail sales fell 2.1% month-to-month in December, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 4.9%, from -3.8% in November. This is a poor looking headline, but volatility is normal in these data at this time of the year, and the underlying trend is improving.

23 February 2018 Even Q4's Modest GDP Growth Relied on Unsustainable Supports (Publication Centre)

U.K. activity data have consistently surprised to the downside over the last month.

22 January 2019 Chinese GDP Growth was Much Weaker than the Headlines Suggest (Publication Centre)

Chinese GDP numbers always require a great deal of detective work, and yesterday's needed more than the norm; multiple rounds of revisions needed decoding.

15 June 2017 China's Q2 Growth to Remain Sturdy but Expect a Slower H2 (Publication Centre)

China's industrial production grew at an annualised 7.2% rate by volume in Q1, according to our estimates, up from an average 5.9% rate in the six quar ters through mid-2016.

23 November 2018 Lower Oil Prices are Another Tailwind for 2019 (Publication Centre)

The recent plunge in oil prices is another positive development, alongside looser fiscal policy and the striking of a Brexit deal with the E.U., pointing to scope for GDP growth to pick up next year.

22 September 2017 Don't Expect a Giveaway Budget, Despite low Borrowing this year (Publication Centre)

Public borrowing was below consensus expectations in August, fuelling speculation that the Chancellor might pare back the remaining fiscal tightening in the Autumn Budget on November 22.

24 August 2017 Second Estimate of Q2 GDP to Show U.K. Missing out on G7 Boom (Publication Centre)

We expect today's second estimate of Q2 GDP to confirm that the U.K. has been the slowest growing G7 economy this year.

24 May 2018 If the BoK Lacks the Stamina to Hike this Week, 2018 Could be Barren (Publication Centre)

Korea's 20-day export growth came in weaker than we anticipated earlier this week. Granted, year-over- year growth rebounded to 14.8% in May, from 8.3% in April.

25 August 2017 Trade and Investment are Failing to Offset the Consumption Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The second estimate of GDP left the estimate of quarter-on-quarter growth unrevised at 0.3%, a trivial improvement on Q1's 0.2% gain.

24 October 2017 EZ Consumers' Spending Slowed in Q3, but Should Rebound in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone consumers' spending jumped in Q2, but we are pretty certain that a slowdown in retail sales constrained growth in Q3.

21 March 2018 China's Fiscal Reforms: Economies of Scale won't Reduce the Deficit yet (Publication Centre)

Premier Li Keqiang rounded out the National People's Congress with his press conference yesterday.

14 November 2017 Are Investors Complacent to Expect a Smooth Brexit Transition in 2019? (Publication Centre)

Sterling weakened yesterday, to $1.31 from $1.32, following news that 40 Conservative MPs have agreed to sign a letter of no-confidence in the Prime Minister.

25 July 2017 Will the Participation Rate Continue to Defy Gravity? (Publication Centre)

The participation rate--the proportion of people either in or looking for work--has held steady over the last decade, despite the ageing of the population and the rise in student numbers.

24 February 2017 Is Sterling's Depreciation a Blessing or a Curse for Profits? (Publication Centre)

This week's GDP figures showed that firms invested only sparingly in 2016, but their financial fortunes have been bolstered by a recovery in profits. The gross operating surplus of all firms rose by 4.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, the biggest increase for 11 quarters. This pushed the share of GDP absorbed by profits up to 21.3%, just above its 60-year average of 21.2%.

25 April 2017 Are Further Tax Rises After the Election Inevitable? (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister's refusal last week to reaffirm her party's 2015 election pledge not to raise income tax, National Insurance or VAT has fuelled speculation that taxes will rise if the Conservatives are re-elected on June 8. Admittedly, Mrs. May asserted that her party "believes in lower taxes", and the tax pledge s till might appear in the Conservatives' manifesto, which won't be published for a few weeks.

21 December 2018 What Happened in the French Economy in the Fourth Quarter (Publication Centre)

This is the final report before we dial down for our Christmas break, and we are happy to report that the economic calendar will be almost empty in our absence.

17 November 2017 Respite for Consumers from Price Rises will be Short-Lived (Publication Centre)

October's retail sales figures confirm that consumers have adopted a more cautious mindset since the summer, when retail sales increased at a faster rate than incomes.

18 July 2017 China is Slowing, not Rebounding. the Headline Data are Misleading (Publication Centre)

Chinese official headline data paint a picture of a strengthening economy in Q2. Our analysis shows a sharply contrasting picture. China's nominal GDP, real GDP and deflators are often internally inconsistent.

18 June 2018 The U.S. Will Blink Before Imposing Tariffs on Chinese Consumer Goods (Publication Centre)

The imposition of 25% tariffs on $50B-worth of imports from China, announced Friday, had been clearly flagged in media reports over the previous couple of weeks.

16 Dec. 2015 The Cyclical Rise in Labour Participation Has Run Its Course (Publication Centre)

Rapid growth in labour supply has enabled the U.K. economy to grow quickly over the last three years without generating excessive wage or inflation pressure. The rise in the participation rate--the proportion of those aged over 16 in or looking for work--has been critical to this revival. But the rise in the participation rate largely has reflected cyclical factors rather than a sustainable upward trend, and the downward pressure on participation from demographic factors will build over the coming years.

17 November 2017 A Perfect Mix of Low Core Inflation and High GDP Growth in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's CPI report in the Eurozone confirmed that inflation pressures remain subdued, even as GDP growth is accelerating.

16 October 2018 Will Fiscal Stimulus Boost Eurozone GDP growth in 2019 (Publication Centre)

The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area was a macroeconomic horror story

17 December 2018 China's Activity Data for November were Poor... the Worst is yet to Come (Publication Centre)

We had expected the batch of Chinese data released at the end of last week to disappoint.

19 December 2018 New Thinking on PBoC Rates Balance Tipping Toward a Cut (Publication Centre)

A PBoC rate cut is looking increasingly likely. Policy is already on the loosest setting possible without cutting rates, but the Bank has little to show for its marginal approach to easing, with M1 growth still languishing.

2 January 2019 A Further Slowdown in GDP Growth Is Imminent (Publication Centre)

The economy's fragility was underlined by the Q3 national accounts, released just before the Christmas break.

21 December 2018 Consumption Will Firm in Mexico in Q4, Despite October's Poor Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's report on October private spending in Mexico was downbeat, suggesting that consumption started the fourth quarter on a weak footing.

16 March 2017 Structural Goods Deflation in France is a Challenge for the ECB (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in France eased in February, in contrast to the story in the rest of the EZ. Yesterday's report confirmed the initial estimate that inflation fell to 1.2% year-over-year in February, from 1.3% in January. The headline was hit by a crash in the core rate to a two-year low of 0.2%, from 0.7% in January.

15 June 2018 May's Surge in Retail Sales is Just a Weather-Related Blip (Publication Centre)

The trend in retail sales no longer looks quite so flat, following yesterday's May report. The level of sales volumes in April was revised up by 0.3%.

20 September 2017 August Retail Sales to Confirm Consumption Still Weak in Q3 (Publication Centre)

August's retail sales figures, released today, look set to show that growth in consumers' spending has remained subpar in Q3, casting doubt over whether the MPC will conclude that the economy can cope with a rate hike this year.

20 October 2017 September's Retail Sales Slump Highlights Consumers' Caution (Publication Centre)

Retail sales fell sharply in September, highlighting that consumers still are spending only cautiously amid high economic uncertainty and falling real wages.

15 November 2017 Chinese October Activity Data Were Mixed but Will Weaken Over Winter (Publication Centre)

The Chinese activity data published yesterday were a mixed bag, with headline retail sales and production weakening, while FAI growth was stable. We compile our own indices for all three, to crosscheck the official versions.

20 April 2018 Weak Retail Sales in Q1 Can't be Attributed Solely to Bad Weather (Publication Centre)

The 1.2% month-to-month fall in retail sales volumes in March undoubtedly was due mostly to the bad weather.

21 June 2017 Japan will Grow this Year, Despite its Structural Hurdles (Publication Centre)

Abenomics has had its successes in changing the structure of Japan. Notably, large numbers of women have gone back to work and corporations have started paying dividends. These are by no means small victories. But overall, the macroeconomy is essentially the same as when Shinzo Abe became prime minister.

27 October. 2016 Consumers' Spending in Germany will Continue to Slow, Modestly (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's consumer confidence report in Germany was soft, in contrast to surging business sentiment data earlier in the week.

6 October 2017 China's Debt Ratio Stabilised in 2016, but only Cyclically (Publication Centre)

We've written in previous Monitors about the stabilisation of China's debt ratio. In this Monitor we look at whether this stabilisation is cyclical or a sign that China really has managed to change the structure of its economy to be less reliant on debt.

7 August 2017 Japan's Wage Drop not so Damaging as Regular Wages Rise (Publication Centre)

Japanese average cash earnings posted a surprise drop of 0.4% year-over-year in June, down from 0.6% in May and sharply below the consensus for a rise of 0.5%. The decline was driven by a fall in the June bonus, by 1.5%.

7 December 2017 China Regulates in an Attempt to Avoid a Korea-style Credit Spiral (Publication Centre)

China last week banned unlicensed micro-lending and put a ceiling on borrowing costs for the sector, in an effort to curtail the spiralling of consumer credit.

7 February 2018 The Economic Fallout from the Plunge in Equities will be Modest (Publication Centre)

As things stand, we see little reason to revise down our forecasts for the U.K. economy in response to the tailspin in equity markets

6 December 2017 Retail Sales in the EZ Plunged in October, but Will Improve Soon (Publication Centre)

Consumers' spending in the Eurozone stalled at the start of Q4. Retail sales slid 1.1% month-to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate down to a four-year low of 0.4%, from an upwardly-revised 4.0% jump in September.

6 April 2018 The Game Theory of Sino-U.S. Relations, the Status quo is Out (Publication Centre)

The meta game between China and Mr. Trump started as soon as he had any possibility of winning the election in 2016.

4 May 2018 April Payrolls Likely Were Solid, but is Trouble Brewing for late Spring? (Publication Centre)

April payroll growth likely will be reported at close to 200K. Overall, the survey evidence points to a stronger performance, but they don't take account of weather effects, and April was a bit colder and snowier than usual. We're not expecting a big weather hit, but some impact seems a reasonable bet.

4 November. 2016 Inflation Concerns Now Dominate on the MPC (Publication Centre)

The MPC surprised markets and ourselves yesterday by the extent to which it abandoned its previous stance and is now emphasising inflation over growth risks.

4 October 2017 The Current Account Deficit Still Poses Downside Risks for Sterling (Publication Centre)

Sterling's depreciation has done little to remedy the U.K.'s dependence on external finance.

7 February 2019 Korea's December was Good, not Great Expect Revisions to Q4 GDP (Publication Centre)

Following the publication of Korea's preliminary Q4 GDP report last month--see here--we said the consensus-beating print would be susceptible to downgrades, unless the economy had a miraculous end to 2018

7 June 2017 The Slowing in Consumer Credit Demand is Good News (Publication Centre)

Today's consumer credit report for April likely will show that the stock of debt rose by about $15B, a bit below the recent trend. The monthly numbers are volatile, but the underlying trend rate of increase has eased over the past year-and-a-half, as our first chart shows. The slowdown has been concentrated in the non-revolving component, though the rate of growth of the stock of revolving credit--mostly credit cards--has dipped recently, perhaps because of weather effects and the late Easter.

8 May 2017 Mr. Macron Easily Defeats Ms. Le Pen: Now the Hard Work Begins (Publication Centre)

Early results suggest that Mr. Macron has comfortably beat Marine Le Pen to become French president, defying a leak of emails and other documents from his En Marche campaign over the weekend. The final results won't be published until Monday morning, but the initial estimate indicates that Mr. Macron will edge Ms. Le Pen by 65.1% to 34.9%.

8 October 2018 Mortgage Refinancing won't be a Tailwind for the Economy Next Year (Publication Centre)

The process of refinancing existing mortgages at ever-lower interest rates has been a boon for the economy in recent years.

9 October 2017 Japan's Wages Continue to Grow, the Party of Hope Reveals Policy (Publication Centre)

Japanese average regular wages increased at an annualised rate of 0.6% in the three months to August compared with the previous three months, matching the rate in July.

8 January 2019 The Housing Market is Set to Freeze in Early 2019, Thanks to Brexit (Publication Centre)

The housing market perhaps is where the adverse impact of Brexit uncertainty can be seen most clearly.

8 February 2019 The MPC has Gone only Half-Way to Endorsing Markets' Lower Rate Path (Publication Centre)

In the midst of heightened and potentially longerlasting Brexit uncertainty, the MPC revised down its forecast for GDP growth sharply yesterday and came close to endorsing investors' view that the chances of a 25bp rate hike before the end of this year have slipped to 50:50.

7 March 2017 Can Italy's Economy Overcome Weak Real Wage Growth in 2017? (Publication Centre)

The Italian economy slowed at the end 2017, and it continues to underperform other major EZ economies. Real GDP rose 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, a bit slower than the 0.3% gain in Q3, pushing full-year growth up to a modest 1.0%. This compares poorly, though, with growth of 1.6% in the euro area as a whole.

8 August. 2016 The Term Funding Scheme is Not a Game-Changer (Publication Centre)

Economists failed to foresee the U.K.'s growth spurt in 2013 partly because they underestimated the positive impact of the Funding for Lending Scheme, launched in mid-2012. In fact, the FLS was so successful at stimulating mortgage lending that it had to be "refocussed" to apply solely to business lending in January 2014.

8 February 2018 Housing Market Wobble Highlights that the MPC Can't Hike Quickly (Publication Centre)

Markets expect the MPC to shelve November's guidance--that interest rates need to rise only twice in the next three years--at today's meeting.

31 October 2017 The Slowdown in Bank Lending will Gather Momentum Soon (Publication Centre)

Growth in the broad money supply slowed further in September, providing more evidence that the economy is losing momentum.

31 May 2018 Recovering Consumer Confidence Won't Lift Spending, Much (Publication Centre)

The widespread view, which we share, that GDP will rebound in Q2 following the disruption caused by bad weather in Q1, was supported yesterday by the E.C.'s Economic Sentiment survey.

13 September 2017 Korean Borrowing Begins to Recover, but the Fed isn't Done yet (Publication Centre)

Korean credit markets have begun tentatively to recover after the rise in global interest rates at the end of last year.

27 September 2017 Winter is Coming for the Mortgage Market (Publication Centre)

Figures yesterday from U.K. Finance--the new trade body that has subsumed the British Bankers' Association--showed that the mortgage market recovered over the summer.

28 June. 2016 The Case for Stronger U.S. Economic Growth is Still Robust (Publication Centre)

Difficult though it is to tear ourselves away from Britain's political and economic train-wreck, morbid fascination is no substitute for economic analysis. The key point here is that our case for stronger growth in the U.S. over the next year is not much changed by events in Europe.

27 March 2017 Could the MPC Adopt a "One and Done" Hike Strategy? (Publication Centre)

A series of events have forced markets and analysts to re-evaluate their assumption that Bank Rate will remain on hold throughout 2017. First, the minutes of the MPC's meeting had a hawkish tilt.

27 June 2018 Mexico's Soft Retail Sales Will Change Course Soon, for the Better (Publication Centre)

Mexico's private spending stumbled at the start of the second quarter.

26 May 2017 Soft GDP Shows Sterling's Drop to be the Least Successful Ever (Publication Centre)

The second estimate of Q1 GDP made for grim reading. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was revised down to 0.2%--the joint-slowest rate since Q4 2012--from the preliminary estimate of 0.3%.

26 October. 2016 Consumer Energy Price Rises Are in the Pipeline (Publication Centre)

Sharp falls in energy prices have been a boon for consumers, freeing up considerable funds for discretionary purchases. Domestic energy and motor fuel absorbed just 4.7% of consumers' spending in Q2, the lowest proportion for 12 years and well below the 6.7% recorded three years ago.

27 February 2019 Consumer Sentiment Signal better EZ Consumption Data in H1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's consumer sentiment data in the two major euro area economies were mixed, but they still support our view that a rebound in EZ consumption growth is underway.

29 June 2017 A Single Rate Hike Would Risk a Harmful Rise in Rate Expectations (Publication Centre)

The MPC's hawks are framing the interest rate increase they want as a "withdrawal of part of the stimulus that the Committee had injected in August last year", arguing that monetary policy still would be "very supportive" if rates rose to 0.5%, from 0.25%.

29 June 2018 Surveys Continue to Weaken the Case for a Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

Surveys released yesterday failed to support the MPC's view that the economy has bounced back in Q2.

30 January 2017 Real M1 Indicates a Solid Start to 2017, but What Happens Next? (Publication Centre)

The business cycle upturn in the Eurozone likely will remain resilient in the first half of 2017. Friday's money supply data showed that headline M3 growth increased to 5.0% in December, from 4.9% in November.

30 September 2016 Britain is Turning to Debt to Maintain an Illusion of Prosperity (Publication Centre)

Today's balance of payments figures for the second quarter likely will underline that the U.K. has financed strong growth in domestic consumption by amassing debts with the rest of the world at a breakneck pace.

31 January 2019 The French Economy Was More Resilient than Expected in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data dump in the EZ delivered something investors haven't seen for a while, namely, positive surprises.

3 January 2017 Slowing Real Income Growth Will Define the 2017 U.K. Economy (Publication Centre)

The U.K. economy retained its momentum last year, despite the seismic shock of the vote to leave the EU. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth averaged 0.5% in the first three quarters of 2016, matching 2015's rate and the average pace of growth across the Atlantic.

29 September 2017 Catalonia Will Not Become Independent this Weekend (Publication Centre)

Sunday's referendum on independence in Catalonia is a wild-card. The central government has taken drastic steps to ensure that a vote doesn't happen.

29 March 2018 Another Big Fall in the Saving Rate Likely Boosted GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The national accounts, released today, likely will restate that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth held steady at 0.4% in Q4.

29 November 2017 Eurozone GDP Growth Will Slow Soon, Will Markets Care? (Publication Centre)

Headline money supply growth in the Eurozone has averaged 5% year-over-year since the beginning of 2015; yesterday's October data did not change that story.

29 November 2017 Unemployment in Mexico Keeps Falling, but Risks Have Increased (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's October labour market data in Mexico showed that the adjusted unemployment rate rose a bit to 3.4%, from 3.3% in September.

26 January 2018 Korean Exports hit a Perfect Storm in Q4 but Should Rebound in H1 (Publication Centre)

Korean GDP unexpectedly declined in Q4, for the first time since the financial crisis, falling 0.2% quarter-on-quarter after a 1.5% jump in Q3.

11 February 2019 Winter Bonuses will Help Q4 GDP, but they Mask Underlying Softness (Publication Centre)

Wage growth in Japan accelerated to a six-month high in December, inching up to 1.8% year-over-year, from November's 1.7%.

1 November 2018 Does the MPC Need to Talk Up Rate Hike Expectations Today (Publication Centre)

The MPC's new inflation forecasts usually take centre stage on "Super Thursday" and provide a numerical indication of how close the Committee is to raising interest rates again.

1 September 2017 Interest Rate Changes Act Faster than the MPC's Hawks Argue (Publication Centre)

MPC member Michael Saunders, who has voted to raise interest rates at the last two MPC meetings, argued in a speech yesterday that tighter monetary policy is required now partly because it affects the economy with a long lag.

1 March 2017 The Chancellor will Bank Most of the £20B Borrowing Windfall (Publication Centre)

At next Wednesday's Budget, the Chancellor will have the rare pleasure of announcing lower-than- anticipated near-term borrowing forecasts. But hopes that he will prevent the fiscal tightening from intensifying when the new financial year begins in April look set to be dashed, just as they were at the Autumn Statement in November.

1 July. 2016 The MPC Likely Will Dash Expectations of Substantial Easing (Publication Centre)

Mark Carney's assertion that "...some monetary policy easing will likely be required over the summer" is a clear signal that an interest rate cut is in the pipeline. But easing likely will be modest, due to the much higher outlook for inflation following sterling's precipitous decline.

1 August 2018 Is Consumers' Confidence Really at a 21-month High? (Publication Centre)

We're inclined to place little weight on July's E.C. Economic Sentiment Survey, which showed that consumers' confidence has picked up to its highest level since October 2016; see our first chart.

1 February 2019 Consumer Confidence Indices Likely are Giving an Overly Downbeat Steer (Publication Centre)

It's tempting to conclude from the recent decline in consumers' confidence that growth in real spending will continue to weaken over the coming quarters, from the already modest 1.8% year-over-year rate in Q3.

10 January 2019 We have Seen this Movie Before in French Consumer Confidence (Publication Centre)

History is repeating itself in France. When the Republican Nicolas Sarkozy defeated the Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal in April 2007, consumer sentiment briefly soared to a six-year high, before plunging to an all-time low a year later.

10 April 2019 Headline Data will Hide the Extent of China's Q1 GDP Weakness (Publication Centre)

Official Chinese real GDP growth likely slipped to 6.3% year-over-year in Q1, the lowest on record, from 6.4% in Q4, which matched the trough in the Great Financial Crisis.

13 March 2018 Scandals Could Take Down Abe Would Abenomics Survive (Publication Centre)

Japan's Ministry of Finance yesterday admitted falsifying documents submitted to the country's parliament during a corruption probe last year.

12 January 2017 How Can Trump Deliver Quickly on his Tax Cut Pledges? (Publication Centre)

As far as we can tell, most forecasters expect the impact of fiscal stimulus this year to be gradual, with perhaps most of the boost to growth coming next year. At this point, with no concrete proposals either from the new administration or Congress, anything can happen, and we can't rule out the idea of a slow roll-out of tax cuts and spending increases.

13 July 2018 Consumers' Spending Was Resilient in Q2, but Growth Will Slow in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in Brazil suggest that retailers suffered in the second quarter, hit by the effect of the truckers' strike, but private consumption remains somewhat resilient.

11 September 2017 The German Trade Surplus is Falling, but Real Wages are Rising (Publication Centre)

The seasonally adjusted trade surplus in Germany slipped to €19.6B in July, from €21.2B in June, its lowest since April, and we are confident that it has peaked for this cycle.

12 February 2019 GDP Likely Will Still Rise Marginally in Q1, Despite December's Dip (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the latest GDP data look awful. December's 0.4% month-to-month fall in GDP closed a poor Q4, in which quar ter-on-quarter growth slowed to 0.2%, from 0.6% in Q3.

11 September 2017 Hurricane Reconstruction Will Lift Wages, Inflation, and the Deficit (Publication Centre)

As we reach our Sunday afternoon deadline, Hurricane Irma is pounding Florida's west coast with an intensity not seen since Andrew, in 1992.

11 Jan. 2016 Plunging Oil Prices Won't Distract the MPC as Inflation Rises (Publication Centre)

Investors have lowered once again their expectations for official interest rates and now do not anticipate any rate hikes this year. Markets appear to have judged that the plunge in oil prices will ensure that inflation is too low for the Monetary Policy Committee to tighten policy. Oil prices, however, are not the be-all and end-all for inflation or monetary policy, and we doubt they will distract the MPC from the continued firming of domestic price pressures this year.

22 March 2018 China's State Capital to Nourish Tech but Neglect Households (Publication Centre)

So much has changed in China over the last six months that we are taking the opportunity in this Monitor to step back and gain an overview of where the economy is going in the long term.

17 April 2019 Households are Primed for a Housing Upturn, but not Developers (Publication Centre)

China's property market looks to be turning the corner, going by the stronger-than-expected March report.

24 October 2018 EZ Households Face Uncertainty, Despite Solid Fundamentals (Publication Centre)

Consumer confidence in the Eurozone rose marginally at the start of Q4, though it is still down since the start of the year.

12 October 2018 Brazilian Households are in Good Shape, Despite Rising Political Risk (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday support our view that the Brazilian retail sector has gathered strength in recent months, following a weak Q2, when activity was hit by the truckers' strike.

10 January 2019 Japanese Households Face Cross-currents Time to Tighten the Belt (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage growth surprised us with a jump to 2.0% year-over-year in December, up from 1.5% in November.

24 October. 2016 Why are Households Running Such Large Bank Balances? (Publication Centre)

The U.S. household sector carries substantial gross debts, even after the sustained deleveraging since the crash of 2008. The gross debt-to-income ratio stood at 105.3% in the second quarter of this year, down from the 135% peak in late 2007 but still well above the 88% average recorded in the 1990s, which was not a decade of restraint on the part of consumers.

29 October 2018 The Glass is Half-Full for French and German Households (Publication Centre)

Friday's consumer sentiment data in the two main Eurozone economies were mixed.

29 June. 2016 French Households are in a Good Mood, Despite Dip in Sentiment (Publication Centre)

French consumer sentiment dipped slightly in June, but we see no major hit from ongoing labour market disputes. The headline index slipped to 97 in June, from 98 in May; this is a decent reading given the fourpoint jump last month. The headline was constrained by a big fall in consumers' "major purchasing intentions," but this partly was mean-reversion following a surge last month.

27 April 2018 Households' Borrowing is Slowing, Highlighting Their Renewed Caution (Publication Centre)

The squeeze on real wages has just ended and GfK's consumer confidence index hit a 11-month high in March.

22 Apr. 2015 Sustained job gains are key to Eurozone consumers sentiment (Publication Centre)

Advance April consumer survey data will likely confirm that households remain the standout driver of the cyclical recovery in the euro area. We think the headline EC consumer sentiment index rose to -1.0 in April from -3.7 in March.

1 August 2017 Money Data Show Diverging Household and Corporate Fortunes (Publication Centre)

The latest money and credit data highlight that the financial fortunes of firms and households have begun to differ markedly. Private non- financial corporations--PNFCs--are enjoying strong growth in their broad money holdings. The 1.2% month-to-month increase in PNFC's M4 was the largest rise since August 2016, and it lifted the year- over-year growth rate to 9.3%, from 9.0% in May.

19 August. 2016 The Consumer Bubble Will Pop Around the Year-End (Publication Centre)

It would be a serious mistake to conclude from July's retail sales figures that consumers' spending will be immune to the fallout of the Brexit vote. Households have yet to endure the hiring freeze and pay squeeze indicated by surveys of employers, or the price surge signalled by sterling's sharp depreciation. The real test for consumers' spending lies ahead.

22 Dec. 2015 Low Household Saving Implies Little Upside to Spending Outlook (Publication Centre)

The national accounts for the third quarter, released on Wednesday, are likely to show that households are saving a very small proportion of their incomes. Low unemployment, subdued inflation and the healthier condition of households' balance sheets suggests that very low saving is more sustainable than in the past. Nonetheless, the low rate underlines that household spending can't grow at a faster rate than incomes for a sustained period again.

19 May 2017 Don't Mistake April's Retail Sales Surge for a Turning Point (Publication Centre)

Retail sales volumes jumped by 2.3% month-to-month in April, exceeding the 1.0% consensus and even our 2.0% forecast. It would be a big mistake to conclude, however, that households' spending will propel the economy forward this year like it did between 2013 and 2016.

23 May 2017 Has the Outlook for Business Investment Brightened? (Publication Centre)

The recent deceleration in households' real spending means that either business investment or net exports will have to pickup if the economy is to avoid a severe slowdown this year.

24 October 2017 The Real Income Squeeze has been More Intense than Wage Data Imply (Publication Centre)

It is often argued that the average weekly earnings--AWE--figures exaggerate the severity of the squeeze on households' incomes.

25 August. 2016 Weak Mortgage Approvals Point to Falling House Prices Ahead (Publication Centre)

July's mortgage approvals data from the BBA brought clear evidence that households have held off making major financial commitments as a result of the Brexit vote. Following a 5% month-to-month fall in June, approvals fell a further 5.3% in July, leaving them at their lowest level since January 2015 and down 19% year-over-year.

24 August. 2016 The Impetus to Spending From Falling Mortgage Rates Will Wane (Publication Centre)

The proportion of households' annual incomes absorbed by servicing debt has declined steadily this decade, providing a powerful boost to spending. Indeed, the proportion of annual incomes accounted for by interest payments--mainly on mortgages--edged down a record low of 4.6% in Q1, less than half the share in 2008.

18 July 2017 Rising Leverage will Prevent House Prices from Falling this year (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in households' real incomes has taken a swift toll on the housing market this year. Measures of house prices from Nationwide, Halifax, LSL and Rightmove essentially have flatlined since the end of 2016, following four years of rapid growth, as our first chart shows.

23 January 2017 ECB: Can the Eurozone Consumer Keep Up the Good Work in 2017? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone has come under the spotlight for its growing external surplus, but domestic households have been doing the heavy lifting for GDP growth in this business cycle. During the last four quarters, consumers' spending has boosted year-over-year GDP growth by an average of 1.0 percentage points, in contrast to a 0.4pp drag from net exports.

22 January 2018 December's Dive in Retail Sales Points to Poor Q4 GDP Prospects (Publication Centre)

The intensity of the pressure on households' finances was highlighted last week by December's retail sales report, which showed that volumes fell by 1.5% month-to-month, the most since June 2016.

16 January 2018 Will Surging Equity Prices Boost Consumption? (Publication Centre)

The recent surge in equity prices is not a game- changer for the outlook for households' spending. Like last year, slowing growth in real disposable incomes and house prices will have a far greater impact on spending than rising paper wealth.

1 June 2018 Money Data Cast Doubt on Q2 Recovery in Consumers' Spending (Publication Centre)

A rebound in quarter-on-quarter growth in households' spending in Q2, following the slowdown to just 0.2% in Q1, looks less likely following April's money data.

10 May 2017 April's Surge in Retail Sales Isn't a Turning Point (Publication Centre)

April's Retail Sales Monitor from the British Chambers of Commerce, released yesterday, provided a powerful signal that households' spending rebounded in April, following a terrible Q1.

1 June 2017 Money Data Suggest Q1's Slowdown Won't be Short-lived (Publication Centre)

April's money and credit figures suggest that GDP growth has remained sluggish in Q2. Households' broad money holdings increased by just 0.3% month-to-month in April.

1 February 2017 Sharp Slowdown in Money Growth Consistent with Weaker 2017 GDP (Publication Centre)

December's money data brought clear signs that the economy's growth spurt in the second half of 2016 is about to come to an abrupt end. Growth in households' money holdings and borrowing slowed sharply in December, and the pick-up in corporate borrowing shortly after the MPC cut interest rates and announced corporate bond purchases, in August, has run out of steam already.

26 Jan. 2016 The Collapse in Oil Prices Won't Reinvigorate the Economy in 2016 (Publication Centre)

The response of U.K. producers and consumers to lower oil prices could not have been more different to those on the other side of the Atlantic. Counter-intuitively, U.K. oil production has grown strongly over the last year, while investment hasn't collapsed to the same extent as in the U.S., yet. Meanwhile, U.K. households have thrown caution to the wind and already have spent the windfall from the previous drop in oil prices, unlike their more prudent--so far--U.S. counterparts. With the costs still to come but most of the benefits already enjoyed, lower oil prices will be neutral for 2016 U.K. GDP growth, at best.

10 May 2018 Still-Weak Consumption Means the MPC has to Tread Carefully (Publication Centre)

The MPC was relatively bullish on the outlook for households' spending when it signalled its view, in February's Inflation Report, that the case for raising interest rates before the end of this year had strengthened.

13 Oct. 2015 Construction to Push Up EZ GDP Growth in Coming Quarters? (Publication Centre)

Households remain the key driver of the cyclical recovery in the Eurozone. We have seen, so far, little sign that investment will be able convincingly to take over the baton if momentum in consumers' spending slows. The average rate of growth of investment since 2013 has been 0.5%, about two-thirds of the pace seen in previous cyclical upturns. Weakness in construction--about 50% of total euro area investment--has been one of the key factors behind of the under performance.

16 Mar. 2015 Legacy of the Crisis Still Holding Back Loan Growth in the Periphery (Publication Centre)

Consumers' spending has staged an impressive recovery in the Eurozone, and remains the key driver of accelerating GDP growth. Outside Germany, however, households have struggled, and are still faced with tight credit conditions.

15 March 2018 Mortgage Arrears Likely Won't Keep Falling This Year (Publication Centre)

The Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return for Q4, published on Tuesday, suggests that the fall in households' real incomes last year has not led to a deterioration in lenders' mortgage books.

15 March 2017 Low Mortgage Arrears Hide Rising Risks as the Economy Slows (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in households' income growth since the referendum has not pushed up mortgage default rates, so far. Employment grew by just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and 0.1% in Q4, well below the 0.5% average rate seen in the three years before the referendum.

13 September 2016 Sterling is Already Stoking Price Pressures, More to Come (Publication Centre)

August's consumer price figures, released today, likely will show that households' spending power is being increasingly eroded by rising inflation. We think CPI inflation picked up to 0.8%, from 0.6% in July, exceeding the consensus, 0.7%, for the third consecutive month.

17 February 2017 EZ consumers' demand for new cars will slow in 2017 (Publication Centre)

EZ households' demand for new cars was off to a strong start in 2017. Car registrations in the euro area jumped 10.9% year-over-year in January, accelerating from a 2.1% rise in December. We have to discount the headline level of sales by about a fifth to account for dealers' own registrations. Even with this provision, though, the January report was solid. Growth rebounded in France and Germany, and a 27.1% surge in Dutch car registrations also lifted the headline. We think car registrations will rise about 1.5% quarter-onquarter in Q1, rebounding from a weak Q4. But this does not change the story of downside risks to private spending.

3 Dec. 2015 Low Inflation Expectations Won't Become Self-Fulfilling (Publication Centre)

Households' inflation expectations have fallen again over the last few months, but we doubt they will constrain the forthcoming rebound in actual inflation. Past experience shows that inflation expectations are more of a coincident than a leading indicator of inflation. In addition, inflation is weakest right now in sectors where demand is relatively insensitive to price changes, so, when retailers' costs rise, they won't pay much heed to households' expectations.

7 Apr. The Fiscal Squeeze on Household Incomes Just Got Tougher (Publication Centre)

The new fiscal year began on April 6, marking the post-election intensification of the fiscal squeeze for many households. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates net tax and benefit changes will subtract 1.2 percentage points from year-over-year growth in households' disposable incomes in 2016.

7 Sept. 2015 Mexico's Recovery In Place But Constrained By External Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Growth momentum in Mexico has improved marginally over the last few months after the soft patch during the first quarter, with business and households gaining confidence in the economic recovery. But the upswing has been rather modest, due to the volatility in global financial markets and the challenging external environment. The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated over recent months due to China's problems, and commodity prices remain under pressure. All these factors are now weighing on investors' confidence and hurting EM across asset classes.

5 March 2018 Consumers' Spending in Germany Probably will Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data in Germany suggest that households had a slow start to the year.

26 January 2017 GDP Growth Remained Brisk in Q4, but Headwinds are Building (Publication Centre)

Today's preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP likely will show that the Brexit vote has not caused the economy to slow yet. But growth at the end of last year appears to have relied excessively on household spending, which has been increasingly financed by debt. GDP growth likely will slow decisively in Q1 as the squeeze on households' real incomes intensifies.

30 November. 2016 Recovery in Lending Unlikely to Maintain October's Momentum (Publication Centre)

October's money data show that households and firms have regained the appetite for borrowing that they lost immediately after the referendum. But the recent rise in swap rates and the deterioration in consumers' confidence likely will cut short the revival in consumer lending, while persistent Brexit uncertainty likely will continue to subdue firms' investment intentions.

8 April 2019 Don't Rule Out a 2019 Rate Hike, if the Brexit Extension is Long (Publication Centre)

The point when businesses and households can breathe a sigh of relief about Brexit looks set to be delayed again this week.

8 February 2017 Housing Market Flagging Again as Income Squeeze Intensifies (Publication Centre)

The MPC's interest rate cut in August, and the continued willingness of banks to lend, bolstered the housing market immediately after the referendum. But the latest indicators suggest that the market is slowing again, as the financial pressures on households' incomes intensify.

01 Mar. 2016 Rising Consumer Debt Puts Pressure on the Bank to Act (Publication Centre)

British households are back to their old ways and are piling on debt again. With borrowing costs still falling, consumer confidence high and banks willing to lend, indebtedness will only increase unless the Bank of England acts.

9 January 2019 What Went Wrong with the Hotly Anticipated Net Trade Boost? (Publication Centre)

When trade-weighted sterling fell by 20% in 2016, it was widely expected that net trade would cushion GDP growth from the hit to households' real incomes.

8 September. 2016 Evidence of the Inefficacy of Monetary Stimulus Mounts (Publication Centre)

Evidence that households are not benefiting much from the Monetary Policy Committee's easing measures mounted yesterday, after the release of August data on advertised borrowing rates. Our first chart shows the drop in swap rates and average quoted mortgage rates since the end of last year.

8 June 2018 House Prices will Continue to Flatline in the Second Half of 2018 (Publication Centre)

House prices continue to struggle for momentum, instilling caution among households. Admittedly, Halifax reported yesterday that its index jumped by 1.5% month-to-month in May.

30 March 2017 Money Data Highlight the Weak Start to 2017 (Publication Centre)

February's money and credit figures supported recent labour market and retail sales data suggesting that consumers are increasingly financially strained. Households' broad money holdings increased by just 0.2% month-to-month in February, half the average pace of the previous six months.

5 January 2017 Will a Borrowing Binge Prevent a Consumer Spending Slowdown? (Publication Centre)

November's money and credit figures showed that households increasingly turned to unsecured debt last year in order to maintain rapid growth in consumption. Unsecured borrowing, excluding student loans, rose by £1.7B in November alone, the most since March 2005. This pushed up the year- over-year growth rate of unsecured borrowing to 10.8%--again, the highest rate since 2005--from 10.6% in October.

30 March 2017 How will French Consumers React to Lower Real Wage Growth? (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators for consumers' spending in France are sending conflicting signals. Survey data suggest that households are in a spendthrift mood. Data yesterday showed that the headline consumer sentiment index was unchanged in March at 100, the cycle high.

27 September 2016 Housing Market to Remain Fragile Deep into Next Year (Publication Centre)

The further decline in mortgage approvals in August shows that housing market activity remains very subdued. The recent fall in mortgage rates likely will prop up demand soon, but the poor outlook for households' real incomes suggests that both activity and prices will revive only modestly over the next year.

27 May. 2016 French Consumers are in Good Shape, but Q2 Spending Will Slow (Publication Centre)

We think today's consumer sentiment survey in France will show that the headline index was unchanged at 94 in May. The survey's forward looking components have weakened modestly in recent months, due to declines in households' outlook for their financial situation and standard of living in the coming 12 months.

27 April 2017 How Much Further Can Mortgage Rates Fall? (Publication Centre)

Growth in households' disposable incomes has been supported in recent years by falling debt servicing costs. The proportion of households' incomes absorbed by interest payments fell to a record low of 4.5% in Q4 last year, down from 4.7% a year ago and a peak of 10% in 2008.

26 May. Second Estimate of Q1 GDP to Highlight Brexit Risk Damage (Publication Centre)

This morning's second estimate of Q1 GDP likely will restate the preliminary estimate of a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter rise, confirming that the economic recovery has lost momentum since last year. Meanwhile, the new expenditure breakdown is set to show that growth remained extremely dependent on households and will bring more evidence that businesses held back from investing, ostensibly due to Brexit concerns.

28 February 2018 Retail Sales in Mexico Ended 2017 Badly, but Spending Will Rebound (Publication Centre)

Retail sales in Mexico plunged at the end of Q4, but we think households' spending will continue to contribute to GDP growth in the first quarter.

27 November 2017 The Outlook for Consumers' Spending is Deteriorating (Publication Centre)

Developments over the last month have heightened our concern about the near-term outlook for households' spending.

30 August 2018 The Base is Low for a Q3 Rebound in French Consumers' Spending (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data in the French economy provided the final confirmation that growth remained sluggish in Q2, and showed that households had a slow start to the third quarter.

29 July. 2016 Will Household Saving Rise and Tip the Economy into Recession? (Publication Centre)

Households' saving decisions will play a key role in determining whether the economy slips into recession over the next year. Indeed, all of the last three recessions coincided with sharp rises in the household saving rate, as our first chart shows. Will households save more in response to greater economic uncertainty?

3 Nov. 2015 Truck Sales Soaring, Lifted by Cheap Gas, Robust Confidence (Publication Centre)

Most of the time, markets view auto sales as a bellwether indicator of the state of the consumer. Vehicles are the biggest-ticket item for most households, after housing, and most people buy cars and trucks with credit. Auto purchase decisions, therefore, tend not to be taken lightly, and so are a good guide to peoples' underlying confidence and cashflow. We appreciate that things were different at the peak of the boom, when anyone could get a loan and homeowners could tap the rising values of their properties, but that's not the situation today.

3 April 2017 Q4 Consumers' Spending Spree Will End Abruptly This Year (Publication Centre)

The national accounts for the fourth quarter showed that the economy relied on households slashing their saving rate to a record low in order to spend more. Now, growth in consumer spending will have to fall back in line with real incomes, which will increasingly be impaired by rising inflation.

3 July 2017 National Accounts Expose Britain's Economic Fragility (Publication Centre)

Last week's national accounts confirmed that the economy lost momentum abruptly in Q1, with net trade and investment failing to offset weaker growth in households' spending.

Guardian - UK GDP growth slower than expected as inflation bites (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing Q1 GDP Results

Business Insider U.K. - These 4 charts will define the British economy at the start of 2018 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Economy in 2018

BLOOMBERG - Economist Says U.S. Consumer Spending Is About To 'Surge' (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Chief Economist at Pantheon MacroEconomics, on U.S. Consumer spending

CBS NEWS - U.S. economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. economist Ian Shepherdson comments on U.S Q4 GDP

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: Search Results: 177

pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research