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39 matches for " hicp":

26 February 2019 Your Guide to the New HICP Inflation Data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

For a central bank already fighting for every decimal in its attempt to convince markets that underlying inflation is slowly edging higher, the recent shift in HICP methodology drives home an increasingly problematic issue.

6 Jan 2020 Risks are Tilted to the Upside for this Week's EZ Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Friday's early EZ CPI data for December were red hot. Headline HICP inflation in Germany jumped to 1.5%, from 1.3% in November, while the headline rate in France increased by 0.4pp, to 1.6%.

5 June. 2015 The ECB's Year-End Inflation forecast is probably too low (Publication Centre)

The violence of recent bond market weakness likely has been driven mainly by reduced liquidity, and a squeeze in crowded positions. But we also think that it can be partly explained by an adjustment to higher inflation expectations. The latest ECB staff projections assume the average HICP inflation will be 0.3% this year, up from the zero predicted in March. Allowing for a smooth increase over the remainder of the year, this implies a year-end inflation rate of 0.8%.

2 Dec 2019 EZ Core Inflation is Rising, but It Probably Overshot in November (Publication Centre)

The key detail in Friday's barrage of economic data was the above-consensus increase in EZ inflation.

2 Jan 2020 Bad Omens for Q4 Consumers' Spending Growth in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Data on EZ consumption were soft while we were enjoying our Christmas break. The advance EC consumer confidence index slipped to a three-year low of -8.1 in December, from -7.2 in November, breaking its recent tight range.

2 Sept 2019 The August EZ CPI Data are a Gift to the ECB's Dovish Contingent (Publication Centre)

A few ECB governors has attempted to lean against dovish expectations in the past week.

19 Sept 2019 EZ Headline and Core Inflation to Rebound Firmly Into Year-End (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed CPI data for August confirmed that inflation in the Eurozone stayed subdued over the summer.

17 Jan 2020 EZ Car Sales Soared in Q4, but the Output Data Still Look Awful (Publication Centre)

A strong finish to the fourth quarter spared the EZ auto sector the embarrassment of posting an outright fall in domestic sales through 2019 as a whole.

16 Oct 2019 Core Inflation in France is Rising, but the Devil is in the Detail (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final inflation data in France for September were misleadingly soft.

20 Aug 2019 July Dip in EZ Headline and Core Inflation Will Soon be Reversed (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone eased at the start of Q3.

19 Dec 2019 Another Poor Quarter Ahead for Construction in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy all but stalled at the start of Q4.

23 Sept 2019 The Key Takeaways from Rapidly Falling PPI Inflation in Germany (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that German producer price inflation is now in free-fall.

31 Jan 2020 EZ Core Inflation is Set to Drop More than Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that German inflation roared higher at the start of the year, but the devil is in the detail.

7 June 2019 Did Mr. Draghi Inadvertently Snub Expectations for a Q4 Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

It says a lot about investor expectations that markets' reaction to yesterday's policy announcement by the ECB was marked by slight "disappointment," with EURUSD rallying and EZ bond yields rising.

7 Oct 2019 The Noose Tightens on the EZ, but a Recession is Still Unlikely (Publication Centre)

Data while we were away have intensified fears that the global, and by extension EZ, economy is slipping into recession.

30 Oct 2019 Will the Pension Reform Bring Back the Yellow Vests in France (Publication Centre)

French consumer confidence and consumption have been among the main bright spots in the euro area economy so far this year.

30 Aug 2019 More Cheery Data in France, but the German Numbers Look Grim (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic news in the French economy was solid.

16 May 2019 Headline EZ GDP and Real M1 Point to a Robust Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data in the EZ provided a little more evidence on what happened in Q1.

29 Nov 2019 EZ Leading Indicators are Still Mixed, We put our Faith in M1 (Publication Centre)

Leading economic indicators in the Eurozone continue to send contradictory signals. Most of the headline surveys indicate that a further slowdown, and perhaps even recession, are imminent, while the money supply data suggest that GDP growth is about to re-accelerate.

3 Jan 2020 More Soft EZ Manufacturing Data, but Markets Don't Care Anymore (Publication Centre)

The first economic report of 2020 confirmed the main story in the euro area last year; namely a recession in manufacturing.

21 Feb 2020 Buckle Up, Today's Eurozone PMIs Will Move Markets, We Think (Publication Centre)

Today's advance EZ PMIs will be watched more closely than usual.

15 May 2020 Through the Looking Glass With Misleading EZ Economic Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data provided further evidence of the EZ economy's response to the Covid-19 shock, though we recommend that investors take the numbers with a pinch of salt. In Germany, the final CPI report for April showed that headline inflation slipped to 0.9% year-over-year, from 1.4% in March, trivially above the first estimate, 0.8%.

12 April 2019 The CPI Easter Effect Confirmed Now Brace for a Jump in April (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed CPI data in Germany and France broadly confirmed the message from the advance data in the Eurozone as a whole.

15 Nov 2019 More Evidence Emerges of Stabilisation in the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second Q3 GDP estimate confirmed that the EZ economy expanded by 0.2% quarter-on- quarter in Q3, the same pace as in Q2, leaving the year-over-year rate unchanged at 1.2%.

1 Nov 2019 Where's the Fire, The EZ Economy is Weak, but also Stabilising (Publication Centre)

The more headline hard data we see in the Eurozone, the more we are getting the impression that 2019 is the year of stabilisation, rather than a precursor to recession.

1 May 2019 The Eurozone Economy Defied the Pessimists in the First Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic headlines in the Eurozone were pleasant reading.

1 April 2019 More Evidence Emerging of a Q1 Rebound in Consumers' Spending (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data added to the evidence of a Q1 rebound in EZ consumption growth.

1 March 2019 Did Core Inflation in the Eurozone Fall Slightly in February (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance CPI data for the major EZ economies suggest that today's report for the euro area as a whole will undershoot the consensus slightly.

13 Sept 2019 The ECB Fires Both Barrels It Won't Stop Until CPI is at 2% (Publication Centre)

The ECB disappointed slightly on the big headlines in yesterday's policy announcements, but it delivered shock and awe with the details

13 Dec 2019 Ms. Lagarde Passes her First Test, but it won't get any Easier (Publication Centre)

The ECB and Ms. Lagarde played it safe yesterday.

14 Aug 2019 What is the Core Inflation Rate in Germany We Wish We Knew (Publication Centre)

German inflation data are more noise than signal at the moment.

15 May 2019 German Core Inflation Jumped Way Above Trend in April (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's inflation data in Germany were old news to markets, but the details were spectacular all the same.

14 Oct 2019 If German CPI Data won't Guide Bunds, Maybe Fiscal Policy will (Publication Centre)

Friday's data added further colour to the September CPI data for the Eurozone.

15 March 2019 We are Still Looking for the Real German Core CPI Inflation Rate (Publication Centre)

Inflation data in Germany remain up in the air following recent revisions and restatements of the underlying indices.

14 Nov 2019 EZ Industrial Production Fell in Q3, and Likely Will Slide Again in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in the EZ was held above water by Ireland at the end of Q3.

14 Feb 2020 Eurozone Q4 GDP Growth will be Revised Down Today, to Zero (Publication Centre)

We've already raised a red flag for today's second Q4 GDP estimate in the Eurozone, but for good measure, we repeat the argument here.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Trust the national core rate, and the HICP headline rate.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: German (HICP) core inflation is rising.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: The HICP core rate appears to be returning to its trend of about 1.5%

Consistently Right

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