Search Results: 39
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.
Sorry, but our website is best viewed on a device with a screen width greater than 320px. You can contact us at: firstname.lastname@example.org.
39 matches for " hicp":
For a central bank already fighting for every decimal in its attempt to convince markets that underlying inflation is slowly edging higher, the recent shift in HICP methodology drives home an increasingly problematic issue.
Friday's early EZ CPI data for December were red hot. Headline HICP inflation in Germany jumped to 1.5%, from 1.3% in November, while the headline rate in France increased by 0.4pp, to 1.6%.
The violence of recent bond market weakness likely has been driven mainly by reduced liquidity, and a squeeze in crowded positions. But we also think that it can be partly explained by an adjustment to higher inflation expectations. The latest ECB staff projections assume the average HICP inflation will be 0.3% this year, up from the zero predicted in March. Allowing for a smooth increase over the remainder of the year, this implies a year-end inflation rate of 0.8%.
The key detail in Friday's barrage of economic data was the above-consensus increase in EZ inflation.
Data on EZ consumption were soft while we were enjoying our Christmas break. The advance EC consumer confidence index slipped to a three-year low of -8.1 in December, from -7.2 in November, breaking its recent tight range.
A few ECB governors has attempted to lean against dovish expectations in the past week.
Yesterday's detailed CPI data for August confirmed that inflation in the Eurozone stayed subdued over the summer.
A strong finish to the fourth quarter spared the EZ auto sector the embarrassment of posting an outright fall in domestic sales through 2019 as a whole.
Yesterday's final inflation data in France for September were misleadingly soft.
Inflation in the Eurozone eased at the start of Q3.
The Eurozone economy all but stalled at the start of Q4.
Data on Friday showed that German producer price inflation is now in free-fall.
Data yesterday showed that German inflation roared higher at the start of the year, but the devil is in the detail.
It says a lot about investor expectations that markets' reaction to yesterday's policy announcement by the ECB was marked by slight "disappointment," with EURUSD rallying and EZ bond yields rising.
Data while we were away have intensified fears that the global, and by extension EZ, economy is slipping into recession.
French consumer confidence and consumption have been among the main bright spots in the euro area economy so far this year.
Yesterday's economic news in the French economy was solid.
Yesterday's data in the EZ provided a little more evidence on what happened in Q1.
Leading economic indicators in the Eurozone continue to send contradictory signals. Most of the headline surveys indicate that a further slowdown, and perhaps even recession, are imminent, while the money supply data suggest that GDP growth is about to re-accelerate.
The first economic report of 2020 confirmed the main story in the euro area last year; namely a recession in manufacturing.
Today's advance EZ PMIs will be watched more closely than usual.
Yesterday's data provided further evidence of the EZ economy's response to the Covid-19 shock, though we recommend that investors take the numbers with a pinch of salt. In Germany, the final CPI report for April showed that headline inflation slipped to 0.9% year-over-year, from 1.4% in March, trivially above the first estimate, 0.8%.
Yesterday's detailed CPI data in Germany and France broadly confirmed the message from the advance data in the Eurozone as a whole.
Yesterday's second Q3 GDP estimate confirmed that the EZ economy expanded by 0.2% quarter-on- quarter in Q3, the same pace as in Q2, leaving the year-over-year rate unchanged at 1.2%.
The more headline hard data we see in the Eurozone, the more we are getting the impression that 2019 is the year of stabilisation, rather than a precursor to recession.
Yesterday's economic headlines in the Eurozone were pleasant reading.
Friday's economic data added to the evidence of a Q1 rebound in EZ consumption growth.
Yesterday's advance CPI data for the major EZ economies suggest that today's report for the euro area as a whole will undershoot the consensus slightly.
The ECB disappointed slightly on the big headlines in yesterday's policy announcements, but it delivered shock and awe with the details
The ECB and Ms. Lagarde played it safe yesterday.
German inflation data are more noise than signal at the moment.
Yesterday's inflation data in Germany were old news to markets, but the details were spectacular all the same.
Friday's data added further colour to the September CPI data for the Eurozone.
Inflation data in Germany remain up in the air following recent revisions and restatements of the underlying indices.
Manufacturing in the EZ was held above water by Ireland at the end of Q3.
We've already raised a red flag for today's second Q4 GDP estimate in the Eurozone, but for good measure, we repeat the argument here.
In one line: Trust the national core rate, and the HICP headline rate.
In one line: German (HICP) core inflation is rising.
In one line: The HICP core rate appears to be returning to its trend of about 1.5%
pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research