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Search Results: 49
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49 matches for " headline unemployment":

25 Nov 2019 The PMI Data Still Signal Weaker Growth ahead in the EZ (Publication Centre)

The PMIs in the Eurozone are still warning that the economy is in much worse shape than implied by remarkably stable GDP growth so far this year.

22 May 2020 Don't Over-Interpret the May PMIs, a Slow Rebound is Underway (Publication Centre)

It seems that yesterday's PMI data left investors and analysts more confused than enlightened.

26 Nov 2019 The IFO in Germany Still Tells a Story of Imminent Recession (Publication Centre)

The November IFO report suggests that the headline indices are on track for a tepid recovery in Q4 as a whole, but the central message is still one of downside risks to growth

27 May 2020 The Jump in Consumers' Inflation Expectations Doesn't Matter (Publication Centre)

Don't be alarmed by the second straight jump in consumers' inflation expectations, captured by the Conference Board's May survey, reported yesterday.

27 Nov 2019 The German Consumer is Doing Fine, but Risks Loom in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report in the EZ showed that consumer sentiment in Germany improved mid-way through the fourth quarter.

20 May 2020 Wages to Fall Outright as Labour Market Slack Accumulates (Publication Centre)

We hope never to see another labour market report as bad as yesterday's, though the omens aren't good.

20 Aug 2019 July Dip in EZ Headline and Core Inflation Will Soon be Reversed (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone eased at the start of Q3.

18 Sept 2020 The Bank of Japan Still has Plenty of Room to Expand Covid Support (Publication Centre)

The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan yesterday kept its main settings unchanged, as widely expected. In another 8-to-1 vote, members maintained the policy balance rate and the ten-year yield target at -0.10% and "around zero", respectively, while the forward guidance still pledges to keep "short- and long-term policy interest rates... at their present or lower levels".

2 Dec 2019 EZ Core Inflation is Rising, but It Probably Overshot in November (Publication Centre)

The key detail in Friday's barrage of economic data was the above-consensus increase in EZ inflation.

2 July 2020 First V-Shaped Rebound Spotted in the Wild, in German Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

One of the key positive signs in the Eurozone data since the virus hit has been the evidence that households' liquid money balances have been well supported by job retention schemes, extended unemployment insurance, and aggressive monetary stimulus.

2 Mar 2020 ECB easing is on the way, the only question is how much (Publication Centre)

We'll cover Friday's barrage of EZ economic data later in this Monitor, but first things first. We regret to inform readers that the ECB is behind the curve. Last week, Ms. Lagarde downplayed the idea that the central bank will respond to the shock from the Covid-19 outbreak.

28 Nov 2019 Spare a Thank You for the Strong and Stable French Consumer (Publication Centre)

French consumers remained in great spirits midway through the fourth quarter. The headline INSEE consumer confidence index jumped to a 28-month high in November, from 104 in October, extending its v-shaped recovery from last year's plunge on the back of the yellow vest protests.

28 Oct 2019 Germany is in Recession, When Will the Recovery Begin? (Publication Centre)

Survey data in Germany showed few signs of picking up from their depressed level at the start of Q4.

4 Sep 2020 Downside Risk for August Payrolls, September Likely Weaker Still (Publication Centre)

Two approaches to forecasting payrolls have been the most useful in recent months, and both point to August payrolls rising by less than the 1,350K consensus; our forecast is 750K.

5 Mar 2020 How far Will EZ Services Fall, and Will it Cause a Recession (Publication Centre)

It will take a while for the economic data in the euro area fully to reflect the Covid-19 shock, but the incoming numbers paint an increasingly clear picture of an improving economy going into the outbreak.

6 Jan 2020 Risks are Tilted to the Upside for this Week's EZ Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Friday's early EZ CPI data for December were red hot. Headline HICP inflation in Germany jumped to 1.5%, from 1.3% in November, while the headline rate in France increased by 0.4pp, to 1.6%.

6 Mar 2020 Are Migration and Climate Change Challenges Uniting the EU (Publication Centre)

In today's Monitor, we'll let the economy be, and focus instead on what are fast becoming the two defining political issues for the EU and its new Commission, namely migration and climate change.

4 Mar 2020 The Policy Put is Alive and Well, the ECB will Follow the Fed (Publication Centre)

Markets were left somewhat disappointed yesterday by the G7 statement that central banks and finance ministers stand ready "to use all appropriate policy tools to achieve strong, sustainable growth and safeguard against downside risks."

30 Oct 2019 Will the Pension Reform Bring Back the Yellow Vests in France (Publication Centre)

French consumer confidence and consumption have been among the main bright spots in the euro area economy so far this year.

29 Oct 2019 Can we Rely on M1 as a Leading Indicator in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ money supply data confirmed that liquidity conditions in the private sector improved in Q3, despite the dip in the headline.

3 July 2020 We're Now Slightly Less Optimistic about Inventories in the EZ (Publication Centre)

This week's economic reports have provided clear, and uplifting, evidence that EZ consumers came out swinging as lockdowns were lifted.

3 Mar 2020 Covid-19 is Both a Supply and Demand Shock to the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs confirmed that all remained calm in the EZ industrial sector through February.

30 Aug 2019 More Cheery Data in France, but the German Numbers Look Grim (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic news in the French economy was solid.

18 May 2020 How to Decipher This Week's Labour Market Report (Publication Centre)

This week's labour market report--primarily reflecting conditions in March, though some data refer to April--will lift the veil on the initial economic damage from Covid-19, though the full horror will emerge only later.

18 Mar 2020 What is the Cost of Covering EZ Workers' Covid-19 Income Loss (Publication Centre)

Wage growth in the euro area slowed slightly last year, consistent with the rapid deceleration in economic growth since the end of 2017, though it remained robust overall.

11 Dec 2019 French Manufacturing is Headed for a Soft Q4, Despite a Solid Start (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in France remained on the front foot at the start of Q4.

11 Feb 2020 The Coronavirus will test the Policy Put's Effect on EZ Equities (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Sentix investor sentiment survey provided the first glimpse of conditions on the ground in the EZ economy in the wake of the coronavirus scare.

11 May 2020 The Labor Market is Worse than April's Headlines Suggest (Publication Centre)

Hideous though the official April payroll numbers were, the chances are that they'll be revised down.

10 September 2018 No Need for the MPC to Rock the Boat This Week (Publication Centre)

Lacklustre economic data and persistent no deal Brexit risk mean that the MPC won't rock the boat at this week's meeting.

10 Feb 2020 The Noose Tightens on Eurozone Optimists, Will the ECB Cut Rates? (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production data in the core EZ economies, for December, were startlingly poor. In Germany, industrial production plunged by 3.5% month-to-month, comfortably reversing the revised 1.2% rise in November.

1 Nov 2019 Where's the Fire, The EZ Economy is Weak, but also Stabilising (Publication Centre)

The more headline hard data we see in the Eurozone, the more we are getting the impression that 2019 is the year of stabilisation, rather than a precursor to recession.

1 Oct 2020 This Week's EZ Core CPI will Surprise to the Downside (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's inflation data in France and Italy were just about as soft as we had expected, but not for the reasons we were looking for.

11 Nov 2019 Sharp Fall in CPI Inflation in October to Underline Below-Target Outlook (Publication Centre)

October's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, likely will show that CPI inflation has continued to drift further below the 2% target

11 June 2020 How to Read Next Week's Migraine- Inducing Labour Market Report (Publication Centre)

Many investors probably will be scratching their heads in the wake of next week's labour market report, which will reveal the Covid-19 hit to employment and wages in April, as well as showing how much further the claimant count soared in May.

16 Sept 2020 The Upturn in Redundancies is Only Just Getting Going (Publication Centre)

The latest official data continue to understate the collapse in labour demand since Covid-19.

12 Feb 2020 What on Earth Happened in the Spanish Economy in Q4 (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, the Spanish economy conformed to its image as the star performer in the EZ in Q4.

17 June 2020 April's Decline in Employment is Just the Start (Publication Centre)

At first glance, the latest labour market data appear to be contradictory.

15 May 2020 Through the Looking Glass With Misleading EZ Economic Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data provided further evidence of the EZ economy's response to the Covid-19 shock, though we recommend that investors take the numbers with a pinch of salt. In Germany, the final CPI report for April showed that headline inflation slipped to 0.9% year-over-year, from 1.4% in March, trivially above the first estimate, 0.8%.

17 Aug 2020 Headline EZ Data are Still Gloomy, and That's O.K. for Markets (Publication Centre)

Friday's EZ data provide a good base from which to recap the main themes midway through the third quarter. The second estimate of Q2 GDP confirmed the initial headline that output plunged by 12.1% quarter- on-quarter, extending the decline from a 3.6% fall in Q1.

12 Nov 2019 The Downside Surprise from Q3 GDP has a Silver Lining (Publication Centre)

The headline figures from yesterday's GDP report gave a bad impression. September's 0.1% month-to- month decline in GDP matched the consensus and primarily reflected mean-reversion in car production and car sales, which both picked up in August.

13 Feb 2020 A Double-Dip Recession on the Menu for Italy's in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The fact that Italy's economy is in poor shape will not surprise anyone following the euro area, but the advance Q4 GDP headline was astonishingly poor all the same.

14 May 2020 Jobless Claims Likely Fell Again, but the Consensus Looks Ambitious (Publication Centre)

We're expecting to see the sixth straight drop in initial jobless claims this week, though we think the 2,500K consensus forecast is too ambitious.

19 Oct. 2015 Real Wage Gains Signal the True Tightness of the Labor Market (Publication Centre)

Everyone is familiar by now with the conundrum in the labor market: How come wage gains have barely increased over the past few years even as the unemployment rate has fallen to very low levels, and business surveys scream that employers can't find the people they want? To give just one visual example of the scale of the apparent anomaly, our first chart shows the yawning gap between the headline unemployment rate and the rate of growth of hourly earnings, compared to previous cycles.

16 July. 2015 Upbeat Yellen Dismisses European Risk - Focus Back on U.S. Data (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen said nothing very new in the core of her Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday, repeating her view that rates likely will have to rise this year but policy will remain accommodative, and that the labor market is less tight than the headline unemployment rate suggests. The upturn in wage growth remains "tentative", in her view, making the next two payroll reports before the September FOMC meeting key to whether the Fed moves then.

23 June 2017 Fed Officials Cite "Full Employment" but Worry About Recent CPI Data (Publication Centre)

A couple of Fed speakers this week have described the economy as being at "full employment". Looking at the headline unemployment rate, it's easy to see why they would reach that conclusion.

8 Sept 2020 Private Payrolls Slowing, September Likely to be Weaker than August (Publication Centre)

The tiny headline consensus beat in the August payrolls numbers is nothing to get excited about, and neither is the unexpected drop in the headline unemployment rate.

16 February 2018 French Unemployment Plunged in Q4, and will Fall Further this (Publication Centre)

The French labour market improved much more than we expected in Q4. The headline unemployment rate plunged to 8.9%, from a downwardly-revised 9.6% in Q3.

4 January 2018 Unemployment in Germany is Close to Nairu. Will Wages Rise? (Publication Centre)

The labour market in Germany tightened further at the end of last year. The headline unemployment rate--unemployment claims as a share of the labour force--fell to 5.5% in December, from 5.6% in November, driven by a 29K plunge in claims.

29 June. 2015 Mexican Recovery is Stuttering, but Better Days Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy hit a sticky patch in the first quarter, with confidence slipping, employment growth slowing and the downward trend in unemployment stalling. Indeed, the headline unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in May from 4.3% in April. The seasonally adjusted rate, though, was little changed at 4.4%, with a stable participation rate.

Consistently Right

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