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84 matches for " goods inflation":

18 June 2018 Hope Springs Eternal for Higher Core Goods Inflation in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Friday's data in the Eurozone confirmed that inflation rose sharply last month. Headline inflation increased to 1.9%, from 1.2% in April, and core inflation also rose, by 0.4 percentage points to 1.1%.

11 January 2018 Chinese Manufacturing Goods Inflation Slows with Commodities (Publication Centre)

Chinese PPI inflation fell to 4.9% in December, from 5.8% in November. The decline was expected, but underneath the slowdown in commodity price inflation, the rate of increase of manufacturing goods prices is slowing sharply too.

5 October 2018 Should Surveys Pointing to Higher Core Goods Inflation be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

The CPI inflation rate for non-energy industrial goods--core goods, for short--has tracked past movements in trade-weighted sterling closely over the last ten years, because virtually all goods in this sector are imported.

13 April 2017 Core PPI In ation is set to Rise Further, Lifting Core CPI and PCE (Publication Centre)

Today's producer price report for March likely will show a further increase in core goods inflation, which already has risen to 2.0% in February, from 0.2% in the same month last year. The acceleration in the U.S. PPI follows the even more dramatic surge in China's PPI for manufactured goods, which jumped to 6.6% year-over-year in February, from minus 4.9% a year ago. China's PPI is much more sensitive to commodity prices than the U.S. series, so there's very little chance that core U.S. PPI goods inflation will rise to anything like this rate.

11 May 2018 Use the Euro to Predict Eurozone Core Inflation at Your Peril (Publication Centre)

The Easter effect depressed services inflation more than markets expected in April, but the main downside surprise was the tepid rebound in non-energy goods inflation.

20 May 2019 What's to Blame for Stubbornly Low Core Inflation in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Friday's CPI data for April provided the final piece of evidence for the significant Easter distortions in this year's data.

20 December 2018 CPI Inflation will be Below the 2% Target Right from the Start of 2019 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation fell to 2.3% in November--its lowest rate since March 2017--from 2.4% in October, and it remains on track to fall rapidly over the winter.

23 May 2019 No Need to Reduce Inflation Forecasts After April's Low Print (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation rose only to 2.1% in April, from 1.9% in March, undershooting the 2.2% consensus and MPC forecasts, as well as our own 2.3% estimate.

20 September 2018 August's Jump in CPI Inflation is More Noise than Signal (Publication Centre)

August's consumer price figures caught everyone by surprise. CPI inflation increased to 2.7%, from 2.4% in July, greatly exceeding the consensus and the MPC's forecast, 2.4%.

21 June 2018 Core Inflation Below 2% Next Year Won't Rule Out Rate Hikes (Publication Centre)

It is looking increasingly likely that core inflation, which already has fallen to 2.1% in May, from a peak of 2.7% last year, will slip below 2% next year.

21 September 2017 German PPI Inflation Set to Edge Lower into Year-End (Publication Centre)

German producer price inflation rebounded last month. The headline PPI index rose 2.6% year-over-year in August, up from a 2.3% increase in July, driven almost exclusively by a jump in energy inflation.

21 March 2019 Above-Target Inflation over the Spring Will Test the MPC's Patience (Publication Centre)

February's consumer price figures, released yesterday, put more pressure on the MPC to stick to its plans for an "ongoing" tightening of monetary policy, despite the uncertainty created by the Brexit chaos.

20 Aug 2019 Weak Growth and Low Inflation in Mexico More Rate Cuts Ahead (Publication Centre)

While we were on holiday, the data confirmed that inflation in Mexico is rapidly unwinding the increases posted earlier in the year; that the economy was under severe strain in late Q2 and early Q3; and that the near-term outlook has grown increasingly challenging.

23 July 2018 The Eurozone's Current Account Surplus likely Plunged in Q2 (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's current account surplus extended its decline in May, falling to a nine-month low of €22.4B, from €29.6B in April.

2 July 2018 Eurozone Inflation to Rise Further, Above 2%, Over the Summer? (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone increased slightly last month, and probably will rise a bit more in coming months.

19 December 2017 Eurozone Core Inflation Remains Comfortably Low for Bond Markets (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final CPI report confirmed that inflation in the euro area increased slightly last month. The headline rate rose to 1.5%, from 1.4% in October, lifted by a 1.7 percentage point increase in energy inflation to 4.9%.

18 September 2018 All Aboard for Lower Headline Inflation in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final CPI report confirmed that inflation in the EZ fell marginally in August, by 0.1 percentage points to 2.0%.

18 June 2019 CPI Inflation is Set to Fall Below- Target Again, But Not as Soon as May (Publication Centre)

We expect May's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation fell to 2.0% in May, from 2.1% in April.

19 July 2017 CPI Inflation Still is set to Exceed 3% this Year, Despite June's Pullback (Publication Centre)

The fall in CPI inflation to 2.6% in June, from 2.9% in May, greatly undershot expectations for an unchanged rate and it has made a vote by the MPC to keep interest rates at 0.25% in August a near certainty.

18 July 2019 Construction in the EZ Slowed in Q2, Denting GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data provided further evidence that GDP growth in the EZ economy slowed in Q2.

19 July 2018 Sub-2% Core Inflation is Here to Stay, But the MPC Won't Blink (Publication Centre)

June's consumer price figures threw a last minute curve-ball at the MPC ahead of its key meeting on August 2.

24 April 2019 Above-target CPI Inflation Will Return in Q2 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation was steadfast at 1.9% in March, undershooting the consensus and our forecast for it to rise to 2.0%.

19 July 2018 EZ June Core Inflation Hit by Weak Services it will Rebound in July (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in the Eurozone have been building in recent months, but we think the headline is close to a peak for the year.

20 Aug 2019 July Dip in EZ Headline and Core Inflation Will Soon be Reversed (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone eased at the start of Q3.

28 February 2019 A Dovish Money Supply Report Ahead of the March ECB Meeting (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's January EZ money supply data offered support for investors betting on a further dovish shift by the ECB at next month's meeting.

6 March 2017 Yellen Effectively Promises a March Hike, with Good Reason (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen's speech Friday was remarkably blunt: "Indeed, at our meeting later this month, the Committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate."

5 March 2019 The PPI is the Final Shoe to Drop in the EZ from Chinese Weakness (Publication Centre)

The economic slowdown in China is old news for Eurozone investors.

5 June 2019 EZ Inflation will Fall Further in Q3 but the Core Rate will Rebound (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone tumbled last month, increasing the pressure on Mr. Draghi to deliver another dovish message when the central bank meets on Thursday.

8 December 2017 Brazil's Central Bank Leaves the Door Open for More Easing in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian central bank cut its benchmark Selic interest rate by 50bp, to 7.0%, on Thursday night and confirmed our view that the end of the easing cycle is not far off.

8 May 2017 Inflation Report Likely to Reaffirm Slim Chances of a 2017 Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

This week's MPC meeting and Inflation Report likely will support the dominant view in markets that the chances of a 2017 rate hike are remote, even though inflation will rise further above the 2% target over the coming months. Overnight index swap markets currently are pricing-in only a 20% chance of an increase in Bank Rate this year.

9 May 2019 Core PPI Inflation has Fallen Recently, but the Bottom is Near (Publication Centre)

Core producer price inflation is falling, and it probably has not yet hit bottom.

9 December 2016 Mexico's Consumers Will Face a Tough 2017 (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economic outlook has dimmed recently, a point driven home by sentiment data released last week. Still, we think GDP growth will slow only marginally in Q4, to about 11⁄2% year-over-year. Consumers' spending likely will remain strong in the near term, thanks mainly to rising remittances from the U.S., driven by fear of policy changes under the Trump administration.

9 April 2018 Brazil set for Stronger Growth in Q2, but the Election Brings Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recent data show that inflation is still falling, allowing the central bank to ease further next month, while economic activity is improving, though the rate of growth has slowed.

3 September 2018 The ECB is Fighting an Uphill Battle to Push Core Inflation to 2% (Publication Centre)

We are all for ambitious economic targets, but the ECB's pledge to drive EZ core inflation in the Eurozone up to "below, but close to" 2% is particularly fanciful.

3 October 2018 Are Higher Wages Squeezing EZ Manufacturing Margins? (Publication Centre)

Producer price inflation in the euro area almost surely peaked over the summer.

28 February 2019 The Probable Delay to Brexit Makes a Q3 Rate Hike a Closer Call (Publication Centre)

We have no choice but to revise down our forecast for GDP growth in Q2, now that the threat of a no-deal Brexit likely will hang over the economy beyond March, probably for three more months.

18 July 2019 Below-Target Inflation in H2 Likely Won't Prompt the MPC to Ease (Publication Centre)

The headline rate of CPI inflation held steady at the 2% target in June, in line with the consensus and the MPC's Inflation Report forecast.

24 May 2018 April's Inflation Data aren't a Blow to August Rate Hike Chances (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation dropped to 2.4% in April, from 2.5% in March, undershooting the no-change consensus and prompting many commentators to argue that the chances of an August rate hike have declined further.

28 May 2019 Japan's CPI Inflation Uptrend Lacks Legs, Holiday Distortions Prevalent (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation last Friday gave Japanese policymakers a break from the run of bad data, jumping to 0.9% in April, from 0.5% in March.

29 January 2018 The Dollar is not yet an Inflation Threat, but it Likely Hasn't Bottomed (Publication Centre)

We learned last week that the U.S. no longer has a coherent dollar policy.

3 May 2018 A Sense of Relief, Despite the Q1 Slowdown in the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance Q1 GDP data in the EZ confirmed that growth slowed at the start of the year.

3 March 2017 EZ Inflation Hit by Perfect Storm in Q1, Headline Will Ease in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in the Eurozone are building rapidly, setting up an "interesting" ECB meeting next week. Yesterday's advance CPI report showed that inflation edged up further in February to 2.0%, from 1.8% in January. The headline rate is now in line with the ECB's target, and up sharply from the average of 0.2% last year.

24 July 2017 High Inflation Won't Last as Long as Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

After pricing-in the consequences of sterling's depreciation for inflation last year only slowly, markets are at risk of costly inertia again.

18 December 2017 Why We're Below the Consensus on CPI Inflation Next Year (Publication Centre)

Our forecast that CPI inflation will return to the 2% target by the end of 2018 sets us apart from the MPC and consensus, which expect a more modest decline, to 2.4%.

13 June 2017 May's Inflation Figures Likely Will Bring Another Upside Surprise (Publication Centre)

May's consumer price figures, released today, will provide the first clean inflation read for three months, following the distortions created by this year's late Easter. Consensus forecasts and the MPC have underestimated CPI inflation regularly since the middle of last year, when the impact of sterling's depreciation began to push into the data.

13 December 2017 Surging Energy Prices Won't Derail the Imminent Drop in CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

The pick-up in CPI inflation to 3.1% in November--its highest rate since March 2012-- from 3.0% in October, shouldn't alarm the MPC at this week's meeting.

14 Aug 2019 What is the Core Inflation Rate in Germany We Wish We Knew (Publication Centre)

German inflation data are more noise than signal at the moment.

18 January 2018 Will the ECB's Real Reaction Function Please Stand Up? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone inflation data have been relatively calm in the past six months. The headline rate has been stable at about 1.5%, and the core rate has fluctuated closely around 1%.

14 June 2019 Wage Growth in the Eurozone Remains Strong... Just Sayin' (Publication Centre)

Last week's evidence of still-strong wage growth in the EZ at the start of the year almost surely has gone unnoticed as markets focus on the prospect of rate cuts, not to mention more QE, by the ECB.

14 June 2018 Weakness in Services Inflation Means the MPC Can Sit Tight (Publication Centre)

May's consumer prices figures bolster the case for the MPC to sit tight and wait until next year to raise interest rates, when the economy should have more momentum.

13 Aug 2019 Risks to the Consensus for July CPI Inflation are Skewed to the Downside (Publication Centre)

We expect July's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, to reveal that CPI inflation dropped to 1.8% in July, from 2.0% in June.

12 November 2018 How to Look Desperate in Trying to Stem China's Pledged Share Crisis (Publication Centre)

Last week, the Chinese authorities were out in force, talking up the economy and markets, and bearing measures to support private firms.

10 May 2019 Underlying Core Inflation is Stable, Despite the Weak Q1 Core PCE (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, our forecast of higher core inflation by the end of this year is seriously challenged by the recent data.

1 May 2018 Is the EZ Economy Slowing Faster Than Markets Expect? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's money supply data in the Eurozone were alarmingly poor.

11 May 2018 Base Effects Push up China's PPI Inflation, but Disin ation will Resume (Publication Centre)

The re-emergence of Chinese PPI inflation in 2016 was instrumental in stabilising equities after the 2015 bubble burst.

11 May 2018 Mexico's Economy on the Mend, but Politics is Now the Biggest Risk (Publication Centre)

This week's data confirmed Mexico's strong economic performance over the first few months of this year.

12 December 2017 CPI Inflation Likely Peaked in November, but Will Soon Fall Swiftly (Publication Centre)

Today's consumer prices figures likely will show that CPI inflation increased to 3.1% in November, from 3.0% in October.

11 October 2018 The Core CPI Probably Rebounded in September (Publication Centre)

We'd be surprised to see a repeat today of August's very modest 0.08% increase in the core CPI.

14 March 2017 Small Firms are Happy, but When Will Their Capex Plans Pick up? (Publication Centre)

Small businesses remain extremely positive about the economy, but some of the post-election gloss appears to be wearing off. To be clear, the headline composite index of small business sentiment and activity in February, due this morning, will be much higher than immediately before the election, but a modest correction seems likely after January's 12- year high.

14 February 2017 Will Today's EZ GDP Report Overcome Poor German Data? (Publication Centre)

All eyes in the Eurozone will be on the second estimate of Q4 GDP today, and the report likely will confirm that growth accelerated in Q4. We think real GDP rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, up from a 0.3% increase in Q3, in line with the first estimate. If this forecast is correct, the year-over-year rate will be unchanged at 1.8%. Risks to the headline, however, are tilted to the downside.

17 January 2019 Rising Services Inflation Matters More than the Falling Headline Rate (Publication Centre)

The most eye-catching aspect of December's consumer prices report was the pick-up in core inflation to 1.9%, from 1.8% in November, above the no-change consensus.

17 January 2019 Can we still Blame New Emissions Rules for Soggy EZ Car Sales (Publication Centre)

We are still waiting for the promised rebound in EZ car sales.

17 June 2019 The MPC Won't Strike the Dovish Tone Markets Want to Hear (Publication Centre)

The MPC will have to issue fresh, dovish guidance in order to satisfy markets on Thursday, which now think the Committee is more likely to cut than raise Bank Rate within the next six months.

14 November 2018 German GDP Growth Crashed in Q3, but Inflation is Firming (Publication Centre)

We remain confident--see here--that today's Q3 GDP report in Germany will be a shocker, but this already is priced-in by markets.

18 December 2018 The ECB will have to Lower its Core CPI Forecast, Again, in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in the Eurozone edged lower last month.

18 April 2018 Colombia's Softer Activity Data is Temporary, Expect an Acceleration (Publication Centre)

The February activity report in Colombia showed a modest pick-up in manufacturing activity and strength in the retail sales numbers.

16 July 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Fell in June and Will Undershoot the Target in H2 (Publication Centre)

We expect June's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation fell to 1.9%, from 2.0% in May.

17 May 2018 Don't Give up on Higher Core Inflation in the Eurozone Just Yet (Publication Centre)

The final and detailed April CPI data confirmed that inflation pressures in the Eurozone eased last month. Headline inflation slipped to 1.2%, from 1.3% in March.

15 January 2018 Inflation to Undershoot Consensus as it Begins its Downward Trend (Publication Centre)

December's consumer price figures, released on Tuesday, likely will show that CPI inflation fell more than most analysts expect.

15 October 2018 Below-Consensus CPI Data will Dull any Brexit Deal Rally in Sterling (Publication Centre)

Brexit talks will dominate the headlines this week, with the focal point set to be a meeting of the European Council on Wednesday, where E.U. leaders might give the green light for an extraordinary summit next month to formalise the Withdrawal Agreement.

15 January 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Fell in December to Within a Whisker of the 2% Target (Publication Centre)

Economists are evenly split on December's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, with half expecting CPI inflation to fall to 2.1%, from 2.3% in November, and the other half expecting a 2.2% print.

15 June 2018 A Classic ECB Decision Day A Dovish Tightening of Policy (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, the ECB conformed to expectations yesterday.

15 November 2018 CPI Inflation is Set to Undershoot the 2% Target as Soon as Q1 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at 2.4% in October, undershooting the 2.5% consensus expectation and the MPC's forecast in this month's Inflation Report.

15 Aug 2019 Rising Domestically-Generated Inflation is Tying the MPC's Hands (Publication Centre)

The unexpected rise in CPI inflation to 2.1% in July--well above the Bank of England's 1.8% forecast and the 1.9% consensus--from 2.0% in June undermines the case for expecting the MPC to cut Bank Rate, in the event that a no-deal Brexit is avoided.

5 April 2018 Dip in EZ goods inflation is temporary...we hope (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in the Eurozone edged higher last month, reversing weakness at the start of the year.

17 Dec. 2015 Core Inflation Lags the Economy, and Will Increase Next Year (Publication Centre)

Eurozone inflation continued its slow rebound last month. Final CPI data showed that inflation rose marginally to 0.2% in November from 0.1% in October, a bit higher than the initial estimate of 0.1%. The upward revision was due to marginally higher services inflation at 1.2%, compared to the initial 1.1% estimate. Non-energy goods inflation eased slightly to 0.5% from 0.6% last month. We have received push-back on our call for higher inflation next year, but core inflation is a lagging indicator, and it can rise independently of the story told by GDP or survey data. Core inflation tends to peak during recessions, and only starts falling later as prices are adjusted downwards, with a lag, to the cyclical downturn.

11 January 2018 Slower Chinese PPI Inflation Doesn't Get the U.S. Off the Hook (Publication Centre)

If the CPI measure of core consumer goods inflation were currently tracking the same measure in the PPI in the usual way, core CPI inflation would now be at 2.3%, rather than the 1.7% reported in November.

10 January 2017 Inflation in Mexico to Jump Above the Target Range, Temporarily (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's CPI report in Mexico showed that inflation pressures are rising consistently. Headline inflation rose to 3.4% year-over-year in December, from 3.3% in November, above the mid-point of the central bank's 2-to-4% target range. Surging goods inflation and higher services prices--especially seasonal increases for package holidays and airline fares--were mainly to blame.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Big rebound in services inflation; non-energy goods inflation is flat-lining.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Downside surprise due to unsustainably low core goods inflation.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Goods inflation falling; some signs of upward pressure in services.

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