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51 matches for " global trade":

24 July 2017 Asian Trade Dragged Down by Chinese Slump (Publication Centre)

Korean exports are often a useful gauge of Asian and global trade; the country sits near the beginning of the global supply chain. It also happens to publish early in the data cycle and provides a measure of exports in the first 20 days of the month.

4 April 2017 Sterling's Depreciation is a Mixed Blessing for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

The latest Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey has dashed hopes that sterling's depreciation and the pickup in global trade will facilitate strong growth in U.K. production this year. The PMI dropped to 54.2 in March, from 54.6 in February.

19 Aug 2019 The Intensification of the Trade War Forces Rate Cuts in LatAm (Publication Centre)

While we were away, EM growth prospects and risk appetite deteriorated significantly, due mainly to rising geopolitical risks, weaker economic prospects for DM, and, in particular, the most recent chapter of the global trade war.

22 May 2019 Not Out of the Woods, but Korea is Signalling a U-Turn in World Trade (Publication Centre)

The latest trade data from Korea underscore the unfortunate timing of the resumption of the U.S.-China tit-for-tat tariff war.

22 November 2018 Korea's Export Slump in November Points to Further Global Softness (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade figures for the first 20 days of November, published yesterday, gave the first real glimpse in a long time of how its exporters are truly performing.

24 April 2018 The Strong Services Sector Boosted Mexico's Economy in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Growth appears to have accelerated in the first quarter in Mexico, as NAFTA-related uncertainty abated, inflation started to fall, and the MXN rebounded.

26 June 2018 The German Economy is No Longer Firing on All Cylinders (Publication Centre)

The verdict from the German business surveys is in; economic growth probably slowed further in Q2.

26 April 2019 First Quarter Growth Likely was Very Respectable, Q2 Should be Good too (Publication Centre)

We're expecting to learn today that the economy expanded at a 2.6% annualized rate in the first quarter, rather better than we expected at the turn of the year--our initial assumption was 1-to-2%--and above the consensus, 2.3%.

22 June 2018 Asian Data Point to Slowing World Trade Growth this Year (Publication Centre)

Korean trade activity is slowing.

22 January 2019 Commodity Prices are Edging Higher, Improving LatAm's Outlook (Publication Centre)

Recent global developments lead us to intensify our focus on trade in LatAm.

20 February 2019 Peru's Economic Activity is Improving, Offsetting External Risks (Publication Centre)

Peru's economic recovery gathered strength late last year.

20 July 2018 Further Downside for the Euro in the Second Half of the Year (Publication Centre)

EURUSD has been battered in recent months, falling just over 6% since the end of April, but almost all indicators we look at suggest that the it will weake further towards 1.10, in the second half of the year.

21 Aug 2019 Resilient Domestic Demand in the Andes, Despite Global Tensions (Publication Centre)

The Andean economies haven't been immune to the turmoil roiling the global economy in the past few weeks.

21 March 2019 EZ Equity Investors Have Bought the Global Central Bank Put (Publication Centre)

The perfect world for equities is one in which earnings and valuations are rising at the same time, but in the Eurozone it seems as if investors have to make do with one or the other.

26 March 2018 Market Sell-offs have Stayed the MPC's Hand Before, Why Not Again? (Publication Centre)

The MPC held back last week from decisively signalling that interest rates would rise when it meets next, in May.

28 January 2019 Inflation Remains Benign in Mexico, Despite Temporary Shocks (Publication Centre)

Mexican economic data was surprisingly benign last week.

4 March 2019 A Solid Finish to 2018 for Colombia Momentum Will be Sustained (Publication Centre)

Colombia's GDP growth hit a relatively solid 2.8% year-over-year in Q4, up from 2.7% in Q3, helped by improving domestic fundamentals, which offset the drag from weaker terms of trade.

6 June 2019 Japanese Tax Hike Delay now More Likely, Even with a Q1 GDP Upgrade (Publication Centre)

We are sticking to our call for a weak first half in Japan, despite likely upgrades to Q1 GDP on Monday.

6 June 2019 Will Mr. Draghi Push Back Against Expectations for a Q4 Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The key aspects of the ECB's policy stance will remain unchanged at today's meeting.

3 August 2018 Brazil Likely will Keep Rates on Hold as Long as the BRL Behaves (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board--the Copom--met expectations on Wednesday, voting unanimously to keep the Selic rate on hold at 6.50%.

29 May 2019 Bra Mex External Accounts are Solid, Despite Rising Global Threats (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts continue to surprise to the upside, with the current account deficit remaining close to historic lows and capital flows performing better than anticipated, mostly due to higher-than- expected FDI.

2 November 2018 Copom on Hold for a While the BRL Allows some Room for Manoeuvre (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank kept the Selic policy rate at 6.50% this week, as markets broadly expected.

28 June 2018 Real M1 Still Points to Slower GDP Growth, Despite a Rebound in May (Publication Centre)

Money supply growth in the Eurozone rebounded slightly last month, reversing some of the weakness at the start of the year.

28 November 2018 No Level of Spin Can Paint China's Industrial Profits in a Better Light (Publication Centre)

The latest profits data out of China were grim, as we had expected.

29 July 2019 The MPC Won't Provide Meaningful Policy Signals this Side of Brexit (Publication Centre)

The MPC won't seek to make waves on Thursday.

26 March 2018 Smoot and Hawley are Still Dead, Trump is not Resurrecting them... Yet (Publication Centre)

Everyone needs to take a deep breath: This is not 1930, and Smoot-Hawley all over again.

19 June 2019 Another One Bites the Dust Growth Cools Temporarily in Peru (Publication Centre)

Peru's April supply-side monthly GDP data confirm that the economic rebound lost momentum at the start of the second quarter.

13 July 2018 Consumers' Spending Was Resilient in Q2, but Growth Will Slow in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in Brazil suggest that retailers suffered in the second quarter, hit by the effect of the truckers' strike, but private consumption remains somewhat resilient.

13 March 2019 Tame Inflation and Sluggish Growth the BCB is in no Rush to Shift Tone (Publication Centre)

Brazilian inflation has been well under control in the past few months, still laying the ground for rates to remain on hold for the foreseeable future.

2 April 2019 The Easter Effect is Playing Tricks with Eurozone Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone stumbled at the end of Q3.

12 June 2019 EZ Equities are at the Mercy of Multiple Expansion in H2 (Publication Centre)

Judging by the headline performance metrics, EZ equity investors have little cause for worry.

10 July 2018 Will the Government's New Brexit Plans Boost Business Investment? (Publication Centre)

Business investment has held up better than most economists--ourselves included--expected after the Brexit vote.

11 September 2018 EZ Investors are Still Depressed, Probably Excessively So (Publication Centre)

EZ investors remain depressed. The headline Sentix confidence index fell to 12.0 in September, from 14.7 in August, and the expectations gauge slid by three points to -8.8.

14 May 2019 Rising Trade Tensions Keep Andes' Central Banks on the Sideline (Publication Centre)

Chile and Peru faced similar growth trends in 2018, namely, a solid first half, followed by a poor second half, particularly Q3.

13 February 2019 EZ Industrial Output Slumped in Q4, but Q1 Will Be Better (Publication Centre)

Today's industrial production report in the Eurozone will be poor.

17 June 2019 The MPC Won't Strike the Dovish Tone Markets Want to Hear (Publication Centre)

The MPC will have to issue fresh, dovish guidance in order to satisfy markets on Thursday, which now think the Committee is more likely to cut than raise Bank Rate within the next six months.

18 June 2019 Colombia's Economy Remains Resilient but External Risks are Drag (Publication Centre)

Colombia has been one of LatAm's outperformers this year.

17 April 2018 Brazil's Economy will Improve in Q2, but it Faces Rising Political Risk (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators and survey data in Brazil still suggest a rebound from the relatively soft GDP growth late last year and in Q1.

16 July 2019 Better External Conditions will Support Brazil's Recovery (Publication Centre)

The ramifications of continued disappointing Asian growth, particularly in China, and its impact on global manufacturing, are especially hard-felt in LatAm.

15 May 2019 The Escalation of Trade Tensions Fans Concerns for LatAm's Upturn (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets did well in Q1, on the back of upbeat investor risk sentiment, low volatility in developed markets and a relatively benign USD.

15 May 2019 From Zero to King's Landing, how Bad Could Chinese Trade Become (Publication Centre)

Following Chinese retaliation against new U.S. tariffs last week, the U.S. responded last night, as promised, setting in train the process to slap tariffs on the remaining approximately $300B of imports from China.

16 July 2018 Will Eurozone Investment Take a Hit from the Global Trade Conflict? (Publication Centre)

Last week's packed political agenda in Europe confirmed that political relations between the U.S. and the major Eurozone economies remain difficult.

22 June 2017 Asian Exports Remain Sturdy in Q2, but the Outlook is Cloudy (Publication Centre)

Korea's preliminary export numbers rebounded quite spectacularly in June, with growth at 24.4% year-on-year, compared with just 3.4% in May. This reading is important as it comes early in the monthly data cycle. Korea's position close to the beginning of the global supply chain, moreover, means its exports often lead shifts in global trade.

21 June 2018 Business Surveys Set to Suffer from Tariffs, but the Hit will be Uneven (Publication Centre)

The startling jump in the Philly Fed index in May, when it rose 11.2 points to a 12-month high, seemed at first sight to be a response to fading tensions over global trade.

20 May 2019 Banxico Maintains its Cautious Tone as In ation Spikes Temporarily (Publication Centre)

Mexico's recent rebound in inflation and a more volatile financial environment, due to increasing global trade tensions, forced Banxico to keep its policy rate unchanged at 8.25% last Thursday.

24 August. 2015 The U.S. Will be A Net Gainer from EM Turmoil, Thanks to Cheap Oil (Publication Centre)

If the plunge in the stock market last week, and especially Friday, was a entirely a reaction to the slowdown in China and its perceived impact on other emerging economies, then it was an over-reaction. Exports to China account for just 0.7% of U.S. GDP; exports to all emerging markets account for 2.1%. So, even a 25% plunge in exports to these economies-- comparable to the meltdown seen as global trade collapsed after the financial crisis--would subtract only 0.5% from U.S. growth over a full year, gross.

25 September 2018 A Solid IFO and Mr. Draghi Send Bund Yields Higher (Publication Centre)

The IFO survey signals that markets shouldn't be too downbeat on the German economy, even as it faces uncertainty from global trade tensions.

9 March 2018 MXN Breathes Sigh of Relief as U.S. Exempts Mexico, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

It is still premature to make fundamental changes to our core views for the global or LatAm economy, following President Trump's plan to slap hefty tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, potentially escalating into a global trade war.

8 March 2018 Look for Slight Change in the ECB's Guidance on QE Today (Publication Centre)

The build-up to today's ECB meeting has drowned in the focus on Italy's new political situation and the rising risk of a global trade war.

17 July 2018 External Threats and Domestic Woes Will Limit LatAm's Recovery (Publication Centre)

External conditions are becoming more demanding for LatAm economies, with global trade tensions intensifying in recent weeks.

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