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18 matches for " general election":

*June 2017 - U.K. General Election Conference Call Charts* (My Publications)

U.K. Conference Call Charts - June 2017

7 June 2017 A Tory Victory Wouldn't Necessarily Boost Sterling this Time (My Publications)

Predicting which way markets would move in response to potential general election outcomes has been relatively straightforward in the past. But the usual rules of thumb will not apply when the election results filter through after polling stations close on Thursday evening.

19 April 2017 Markets Overlook the Downside Risks from June's Snap Election (My Publications)

Prime Minister Theresa May's announcement that Parliament will vote today on holding a general election on June 8 shocked markets and even her own party's MPs. Betting markets were pricing in only a 20% chance of a 2017 election before yesterday's news.

20 February 2017 Should Sterling Investors Fear a Snap General Election? (My Publications)

Elections will be held on Thursday in two constituencies vacated recently by Labour MPs. Betting markets are pricing-in a 70% chance that the Conservatives will win the by-election in Copeland--even though they trailed Labour there by eight points in the general election in 2015--mainly because around 60% of Copeland's electorate voted to leave the EU last year.

BUSINESS INSIDER - The pound's general election jump faces a 'swift reversal' as reality takes hold (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing the effect the general election will have on the pound,

11 May 2017 Will the Inflation Report Waken the Gilt Market from its Slumber? (My Publications)

Gilt yields have been remarkably stable following their decline in response to the Bank of England's Inflation Report in February. The average 60-day price volatility of gilts with outstanding maturities of greater than one year has fallen back recently to lows last seen in 2014, as our first chart shows.

25 April 2017 Are Further Tax Rises After the Election Inevitable? (My Publications)

The Prime Minister's refusal last week to reaffirm her party's 2015 election pledge not to raise income tax, National Insurance or VAT has fuelled speculation that taxes will rise if the Conservatives are re-elected on June 8. Admittedly, Mrs. May asserted that her party "believes in lower taxes", and the tax pledge s till might appear in the Conservatives' manifesto, which won't be published for a few weeks.

25 Feb. 2016 Is Brexit as Likely as the Markets Seem to Think? (My Publications)

Sterling weakened further yesterday in response to the perception that the odds of the U.K. leaving the E.U. in the June referendum are rising. Cable fell to $1.39, its lowest level since March 2009. It is now $0.12 below the level one would anticipate from markets' expectations for short rates, as our chart of the week on page three shows.

27 February 2017 A Big Difference Between Today's French Yield Panic and 2012 (My Publications)

This remains a tumultuous time for EZ bond investors. The twists and turns of the French presidential election campaign continue to shove markets around. Marine Le Pen's steady rise in thepolls has pushed French yields higher this year.

BUSINESS INSIDER - The Tories might not get the crushing victory they expect in this election (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing the General Election in June

7 June 2017 How to Prepare for a Eurozone Bond Market Without the ECB (My Publications)

Predicting which way markets would move in response to potential general election outcomes has been relatively straightforward in the past. But the usual rules of thumb will not apply when the election results filter through after polling stations close on Thursday evening.

19 April 2017 Another Political Hand Grenade is Thrown in European Politics (My Publications)

Economic news in Europe continues to take a back-seat to volatility in politics. Yesterday's announcement by U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May that she is seeking a snap general election on June 8th cast further doubt over what exactly Brexit will look like.

16 May 2017 Sterling and Elections: Evidence from the Past Five Decades (My Publications)

It's now four weeks since the Prime Minister called a snap general election, and the Conservatives still are riding high in the opinion polls. The average of the last 10 polls suggests that the Tories are on track to take 47% of the vote, well above Labour's 30%.

9 May 2017 Does the Economy Thrive Under "Strong and Stable" Government? (My Publications)

The Prime Minister has argued repeatedly during the general election campaign that Britain will prosper under a "strong and stable" Conservative government with a large majority. "Division in Westminster," she argued when calling the election last month, "...will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit and it will cause damaging uncertainty and instability to the country."

24 April 2017 Past Errors Mean Investors Should Treat the Latest Polls Cautiously (My Publications)

Sterling jumped last week to its highest level against the dollar since last October in response to news that a general election will be held on June 8. Markets are betting that the Conservative Government will sharply increase its majority, enabling Theresa May to ignore Eurosceptic backbenchers when she strikes a deal with the EU.

4 May 2017 How to Interpret the Results from Today's Local Elections (My Publications)

Today's local elections are more important than usual, because they will enable investors to assess if the Conservatives really are on track for a landslide victory in the general election, as suggested by the opinion polls and priced-in by the forex market.

12 June 2017 The Hung Parliament has Hidden Positives for the Economy (My Publications)

Britain's general election has led to another major step-up in political uncertainty, which conventional wisdom assumes will harm the economy. Perhaps surprisingly, however, the government's enfeebled state brings with it some major positives for the U.K.'s economic outlook.

BUSINESS INSIDER - The only analyst who called the June 8 election correctly now says there is 'clear evidence that the Brexit vote has been bad for the economy' (News and Media)

A look back on Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Toombs' predictions ahead of the U.K. General Election

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