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102 matches for " gdp forecast":
China's data on Monday were beyond dire, leading to a dramatic downward revision of our already grim Q1 GDP forecasts for the country.
The MPC will be looking for the Q1 national accounts and April's index of services data, both released on Friday, to support its view that the economy hasn't lost momentum this year.
In yesterday's Monitor, we suggested that China's monetary policy stance is now easing.
The BoJ kept its main policy settings unchanged yesterday, in another 7-to-2 split.
Last week we made a big call and further downgraded our China GDP forecasts for Q1; daily data and survey evidence suggested that our initial take, though grim, had not been grim enough.
We have revised up our third quarter GDP forecast to 25% from 15%, in the wake of last week's data. Consumers' spending is on course to rise by 36.6% if July's level of spending is maintained, though we're assuming a smaller 33% increase, on the grounds that the expiration of the enhanced unemployment benefits on July 31 will trigger a dip in spending for a time.
Today's advance inventory and international trade data for December could change our Q4 GDP forecast significantly.
The downturn in Japan's all-industry activity index slowed in May to -3.5% month-on-month, from April's significantly revised 7.6% plunge.
It looks as though business and consumer confidence in Korea has brushed off the economic threat of the second Covid-19 wave.
In recent Monitors--see here and here--we have made a case for decent growth in the EZ's largest economies in the second half of the year, though we remain confident that full-year growth will be a good deal slower, about 2.0%, than the 2.5% in 2017.
The collapse in oil prices looks near-certain to pull Japan back into deflation in the next few months, though the BoJ normally looks through oil-induced swings in its target inflation measure.
Data released yesterday in Mexico highlighted the volatility in international trade resulting from the pandemic.
The BoK surprised markets and commentators by keeping rates unchanged at 1.25% yesterday, rather than cutting to 1.0%.
We've suspected that China's GDP targeting system was on its last legs for some time now.
Economic activity in Mexico during the past few months has been relatively resilient, as external and domestic threats appear to have diminished.
The EZ economy's liquidity gears were well-oiled coming into the crisis.
Yesterday's raft of data had no net impact on our forecast for second quarter GDP growth, which we still think will be about 21⁄4%.
India's GDP report for the second quarter, due on Monday, will be a bloodbath.
The minutes of Banxico's November 9 policy meeting were released yesterday, in which the Bank left the reference rate unanimously unchanged at 7.0%.
Our working assumption now is that Congress will not pass a substantial Covid relief bill until next year, probably in February.
We see considerable downside risk to the consensus forecast that GDP increased by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, the same as in Q3.
Data released on Friday confirmed that Colombian activity lost momentum in Q4, following an impressive performance in late Q2 and Q3. Retail sales rose 4.4% in November, down from 7.4% in October and 8.3% in Q3.
The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea voted unanimously last week to keep the benchmark base rate unchanged, at 0.50%.
The June durable goods, trade and inventory reports today, could make a material difference to forecasts for the first estimate of second quarter GDP growth, due tomorrow.
Some normality has returned in India, more than three weeks from the end of the nationwide lockdown and the start of "Unlock 1.0" on June 1.
Data released yesterday confirmed that Mexico's economy ended Q4 poorly, confounding the most hawkish Banxico Board members.
The advance international trade data for December were due for publication today, but the report probably won't appear.
The ECB made no changes to policy yesterday, leaving its key refinancing and deposit rates unchanged, at 0.00% and -0.5%, and confirmed that it will restart QE in November at €20B per month.
Even the record-breaking slump in Markit's composite PMI probably understates the hit to economic activity from Covid-19 and the emergency measures to slow its spread.
Mexican policymakers yesterday voted unanimously to cut the policy rate by 50bp to 5.00%, the lowest level since late 2016.
Yesterday's FOMC , announcing a unanimous vote for no change in the funds rate, is almost identical to December's.
A trio of data releases yesterday provided no relief from the run of abysmal economic news.
The main story to emerge from China's Economic Work Report is the extent of tax cuts, which on our calculations will leave a large funding hole.
Chile's IMACEC economic activity index rose 2.4% year-over-year in January, down from 2.6% in December, and 3.3% on average in Q4, thanks mostly to weak mining production.
Chile's IMACEC economic activity index rose 3.9% year-over-year in January, up from 2.6% in December, and 2.9% on average in Q4, thanks to strong mining output growth and solid commercial, manufacturing and services activity.
India's services PMI for June underscores the half-hearted nature of Unlock 1.0, with the daily number of new cases of Covid-19 still rocketing.
In some sense, today's ECB meeting will be a sobering one for policymakers.
The escalation of the second wave of Covid-19 in Japan in July did little to stop the recovery in labour cash earnings growth.
We look for August's GDP report, released on Thursday, to show that output held steady, following July's 0.3% month-to-month jump.
Yesterday's economic reports showed that the German economy firmed at the end of Q1, but this doesn't change the story for a poor quarter overall.
We're looking forward to today's April NFIB survey of activity and sentiment in the small business sector with some trepidation.
The U.K. services sector has vanished overnight, following the introduction of tough restrictions on everyday life to stem the spread of Covid-19.
We've previously highlighted the pro-cyclical elements of the BoJ's framework, but it's worth repeating, when an economic shock comes along.
The BoJ held firm, for the most part, during this year's bout of central bank dovishness.
Markets were surprised yesterday by the absence of hawkish comments or guidance accompanying the MPC's decision to raise interest rates to 0.50%, from 0.25%.
The MPC restated its commitment to an "ongoing tightening of monetary policy" yesterday, but provided no new guidance to suggest that the next hike is imminent.
The seven-member board of Colombia's Central Bank, BanRep, voted on Friday to cut the main rate by 25bp to 2.25%, its lowest level ever, in order to ease the hit of the lockdown measures.
While we were out, Brazil's central bank delivered a widely-expected 75bp easing, cutting the benchmark rate to 7.5% in an unanimous vote.
Data released in recent days confirmed the intensity of the Covid-related shock to the Chilean economy in Q2.
Data released this week in Brazil underscored that the Covid-related shock on the industrial sector is finally easing, as the economy gradually reopens.
Recent hard data have confirmed the severe shock from Corona to the Chilean economy in Q2.
The unexpectedly robust 128K increase in October payrolls--about 175K when the GM strikers are added back in--and the 98K aggregate upward revision to August and September change our picture of the labor market in the late summer and early fall.
It's not our job to pontificate on the merits, or otherwise, of the tax cut bill from a political perspective.
The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday voted unanimously to lower its base rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.50%.
The PBoC reduced its 14-day reverse repo by 5bp to 2.65% in a routine operation yesterday.
Korea's unemployment rate was unchanged in April, at 3.8%, beating even our below-consensus forecast for only a minor uptick, to 3.9%.
As expected, the Chancellor kept his powder dry in the Spring Statement, preferring instead to wait for the Budget in the autumn to deploy the funds technically available to him to support the economy.
France just about avoided slipping into deflation in December, with the CPI rising 0.1% year-over-year, down from 0.3% in November. The 4.4% drop in the energy component should have pushed inflation below zero, but a seasonal increase in tourism services was enough to offset the drag from oil prices.
Last week, the Bank of Mexico unanimously voted to leave the main rate on hold, at 7.50%, its highest level since early 2009.
The BoJ is likely to be thankful next week for a relatively benign environment in which to conduct its monetary policy meeting.
ate last week, China and the U.S. reached an agreement, averting the planned U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese consumer goods that were slated to be imposed on December 15.
Brazil's central bank kept the Selic policy rate at 6.50% this week, as markets broadly expected.
Last week's decision by the ECB to keep rates unchanged until the beginning of 2020, at least, raises one overarching question for markets.
Official Chinese real GDP growth likely slipped to 6.3% year-over-year in Q1, the lowest on record, from 6.4% in Q4, which matched the trough in the Great Financial Crisis.
China's official PMIs for March surprised well to the upside, cheering markets across Asia.
It's hardly surprising that the consensus forecast for month-to-month growth in November GDP, released on Friday, is a mere 0.1%, given the flow of downbeat business surveys.
Friday's industrial production headlines in the Eurozone were weak, but the details tell a more nuanced story.
LatAm governments and policymakers are bracing for a more dramatic and longer virus-led downturn than initially expected.
Friday's June inflation data in Brazil confirmed that the ripples from the worst of the Covid shock were still being felt at the end of the quarter.
The ramifications of continued disappointing Asian growth, particularly in China, and its impact on global manufacturing, are especially hard-felt in LatAm.
The broad strokes of yesterday's ECB meeting were in line with markets' expectations. The central bank left its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged, at 0.00% and -0.4% respectively, and maintained the same forward guidance.
China's residential property market surprised again in August, with prices popping by 1.5% month- on-month, faster than the 1.2% rise in July, and the biggest increase since the 2016 boomlet.
Policymakers in Chile left rates unchanged at their monetary policy meeting last week, maintaining their neutral bias.
The Q1 Tankan survey headlines were close to our expectations, chiming with our call for year-over-year contraction in Japanese GDP of at least 2%, after the 0.7% decline in Q4.
Japan's Tankan survey for Q2 was unsurprisingly grim, given the devastation caused by the near- global lockdown in the first half of the quarter, and the nationwide state of emergency that enveloped April and May.
China's economic recovery resumed in August, following an uneven start to the third quarter in July.
Manufacturers in China continued to trudge along in May, with their post-lockdown recovery looking increasingly fragile.
The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan yesterday kept its main settings unchanged, as widely expected. In another 8-to-1 vote, members maintained the policy balance rate and the ten-year yield target at -0.10% and "around zero", respectively, while the forward guidance still pledges to keep "short- and long-term policy interest rates... at their present or lower levels".
Brazil's monetary authority adopted a neutral tone and kept its main rate on hold at 6.5% at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, surprising investors.
Friday' second Q4 GDP estimate revealed that the EZ economy barely grew at the end of 2019. The report confirmed that GDP rose by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, slowing from a 0.3% rise in Q3, but the headline only narrowly avoided downward revision to zero, at just 0.058%
China's activity data outperformed expectations in November.
While we were away, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted unanimously to keep its benchmark repo rate unchanged, at 4.00%, defying expectations for a 25-basis point cut.
Japan's exporters have largely shrugged off the country's second wave of Covid-19.
The BoJ is likely to stay on hold this week for all its main policy settings.
Friday's EZ data provide a good base from which to recap the main themes midway through the third quarter. The second estimate of Q2 GDP confirmed the initial headline that output plunged by 12.1% quarter- on-quarter, extending the decline from a 3.6% fall in Q1.
Yesterday's German manufacturing and trade data did little to allay our fears over downside risks to this week's Q4 GDP data. At -1.2% month-to-month in December, industrial production was much weaker than the consensus forecast of a 0.5% increase. Exports also surprised to the downside, falling 1.6% month-to-month. Our GDP model, updated with these data, shows GDP growth fell 0.2%-to-0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, reversing the 0.3% increase in Q3.
The key data today, covering March durable goods orders and international trade in goods, should both beat consensus forecasts.
We were a bit surprised to see our forecast for the April trade deficit is in line with the consensus, $44B, down from $51.4B in March, because the uncertainty is so great. The March deficit was boosted by a huge surge in non-oil imports following the resolution of the West Coast port dispute, while exports rose only slightly. As far as we can tell, ports unloaded ships waiting in harbours and at the docks, lifting the import numbers before reloading those ships.
The Chancellor warned last week that he would hold an Emergency Budget shortly after a vote to leave the E.U. to address a £30B black hole in the public finances. The £30B--some 1.6% of GDP-- is the mid-point of the Institute for Fiscal Studies' estimates of the impact of Brexit on public borrowing in 2019/20, which were based on the GDP forecasts of a range of reports.
Economic sentiment data, which rebounded in March, continue to suggest slight downside risk to EZ GDP growth in Q1. The composite Eurozone PMI in March rose modestly to 53.7 from 53.0 in February, only partially erasing the weakness in recent months. The PMI dipped slightly over the quarter as a whole, although not enough to change the EZ GDP forecast in a statistically meaningful way.
The ECB will not make any adjustments to its policy stance today. We think the central bank will keep its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged at 0.0% and -0.4%, respectively, and also that will maintain the pace of QE purchases at €80B a month. The updated macroeconomic projections likely will include a modest upgrade of this year's GDP forecast to 1.5%, from its 1.4% estimate in March.
The first real glimpse of India's economic performance early this quarter is grim, adding weight to our below-consensus GDP forecast.
Today's brings the June retail sales and industrial production reports, after which we'll update our second quarter GDP forecast.
The latest model-based third quarter GDP forecast from the Atlanta Fed is 3.6%, well above the 2.5% consensus forecast reported by Bloomberg. We are profoundly skeptical of so-called "tracking models" of GDP growth, because they are based mostly on forecasts and assumptions until very close to the actual GDP release.
We have tweaked our third quarter GDP forecast in the wake of the September advance international trade and inventory data; we now expect today's first estimate to show that the economy expanded at a 4.0% annualized rate.
Data released over the last few weeks have confirmed that Colombia's economic performance in Q2 was grim, adding weight to our below-consensus GDP forecast.
Tankan suggests downside risks to our -6% y/y Q2 GDP forecast. Private manufacturers in China continue to play catch-up. Expect a bumpy recovery for Korean exports in Q3. Korean business sentiment is finally recovering.
In one line: Spending growth is slowing; expect hefty Q3 GDP forecast markdowns.
• U.S. - The Fed isn't done, but fiscal policy is needed to stop the rot • EUROZONE - Covid-19 is both a supply and demand shock; what will the ECB do? • U.K. - The MPC will respond more timidly to Covid-19 than other major central banks • ASIA - A further downward adjustment to our GDP forecast in China • LATAM - LatAm economies will catch the flu in Q1
Retail sales data later today will provide further support for the upbeat consumer story in the Eurozone. We expect a third monthly gain in a row, taking retail sales to a 0.8% expansion quarter-on-quarter in Q4, the fastest since the end of 2006. We are seeing clear signs of improvement in the Eurozone economy, and the data are forcing us to recognise upside risks to our Q4 GDP forecast of 0.3-to-0.4%
Banxico's quarterly inflation report, released last week, underscored concerns over growth as well as the weakness of the MXN and the risks p osed by the Fed's imminent tightening. Policymakers downgraded Mexico's GDP forecast for 2017 to 2.3-to-3.3% year-over-year, from 2.5-to-3.5%. Weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing activity is behind the downshift.
We have downgraded our 2019 and 2020 China GDP forecasts on previous occasions because monetary conditions have been surprisingly unresponsive to lower short-term rates.
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