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36 matches for " fuel prices":

19 July 2018 Sub-2% Core Inflation is Here to Stay, But the MPC Won't Blink (Publication Centre)

June's consumer price figures threw a last minute curve-ball at the MPC ahead of its key meeting on August 2.

19 May 2017 Don't Mistake April's Retail Sales Surge for a Turning Point (Publication Centre)

Retail sales volumes jumped by 2.3% month-to-month in April, exceeding the 1.0% consensus and even our 2.0% forecast. It would be a big mistake to conclude, however, that households' spending will propel the economy forward this year like it did between 2013 and 2016.

2 August 2017 An Advance Preview of July's Consumer Price Figures (Publication Centre)

July's consumer price figures--published on August 15th, while we are on vacation--look set to show that June's drop in CPI inflation was just a blip. We think that CPI inflation ticked up to 2.7% in July, from 2.6% in June, on track to slightly exceed 3% toward the end of this year.

19 July 2018 EZ June Core Inflation Hit by Weak Services it will Rebound in July (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in the Eurozone have been building in recent months, but we think the headline is close to a peak for the year.

19 December 2018 November Retail Sales Set to Outperform the Gloomy Consensus (Publication Centre)

The consensus for retail sales volumes to rise by a mere 0.3% month-to-month in November, after falling by 0.4% in September and 0.5% in Oc tober, looks too downbeat.

18 June 2019 CPI Inflation is Set to Fall Below- Target Again, But Not as Soon as May (Publication Centre)

We expect May's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation fell to 2.0% in May, from 2.1% in April.

18 October 2017 Weak Underlying Price Pressures Give the MPC Scope to Wait (Publication Centre)

A November interest rate rise is far from the done deal that markets still anticipate, even though CPI inflation rose to 3.0% in September from 2.9% in August.

18 October. 2016 Conditions are Right For Brazil to Ease Tomorrow, More to Come (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in LatAm are moderating, and governments have been taking steps to pursue fiscal consolidation. These factors, coupled with a relatively favourable external environment, are providing policymakers with the opportunity to start relaxing monetary policy.

20 March 2017 February's Above-Target Inflation Rate won't be the Last (Publication Centre)

February's consumer price report, released tomorrow, likely will show that CPI inflation has breached the MPC's 2% target for the first time since November 2013. Indeed, we think the headline rate jumped to 2.2%, from 1.8% in January, exceeding the 2.1% rate expected by the MPC and the consensus.

20 May 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Exceeded the MPC's Expectations in April (Publication Centre)

We expect April's consumer price figures, due on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation leapt to 2.3%, from 1.9% in March, exceeding the MPC's 2.2% forecast in the latest Inflation Report.

7 June 2018 Car Sales Aren't Recovering Yet, Recent Data are Misleading (Publication Centre)

At first glance, car sales appear to be staging a strong recovery, mirroring the better news on high street spending in Q2.

7 November 2017 Central Bank in Argentina and Peru to Leave Rates on Hold this Week (Publication Centre)

Argentina's central bank likely will leave its main interest rate at 27.75% tomorrow at its biweekly monetary policy meeting.

9 October 2017 Inflation Surprises in September, but Will Central Banks Care? (Publication Centre)

Recent inflation numbers across LatAm have surprised, in both directions. On the upside, Brazil's IPCA index rose 0.2% month-to-month in September, above the market consensus forecast of 0.1%.

6 November 2017 Could a Q4 Data Bounce the MPC into Another Rate Hike? (Publication Centre)

The MPC's penchant for providing interest rate guidance reached new heights last week.

26 October. 2016 Consumer Energy Price Rises Are in the Pipeline (Publication Centre)

Sharp falls in energy prices have been a boon for consumers, freeing up considerable funds for discretionary purchases. Domestic energy and motor fuel absorbed just 4.7% of consumers' spending in Q2, the lowest proportion for 12 years and well below the 6.7% recorded three years ago.

22 March 2017 Inflation Will Continue to Exceed the MPC's Forecast (Publication Centre)

February's consumer price figures provided hard evidence that the import price shock, caused by sterling's depreciation last year, is filtering through faster than the MPC expected. We expect CPI inflation to continue to exceed the forecast set out in February's Inflation Report.

25 November. 2016 Brazilian Inflation is Easing, but in Mexico, it is Heading North (Publication Centre)

This week's November mid-month inflation reports in Brazil and Mexico underscored their divergent trends. Inflation pressures are steadily falling in Brazil, but in Mexico, the pass-through from the MXN's sell- off is driving up inflation and inflation expectations.

18 January 2019 EZ Construction Remained Soft in Q4, but H1 Should be Great (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's November EZ construction data offered little respite to the gloomy outlook for the Q4 GDP headline.

17 September 2018 CPI Inflation Likely Returned to its Downward Path in August (Publication Centre)

We expect August's consumer price figures, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation declined to 2.4%, from 2.5% in July, matching the consensus and the Bank of England's forecast.

12 June 2018 Inflation Likely Held Steady in May, but a Brief Pick-up Lies Ahead (Publication Centre)

May's consumer price figures, released on Wednesday, likely will show that CPI inflation held steady at 2.4%--matching the consensus and the MPC's forecast--though the risks lie to the upside.

12 September 2017 CPI Inflation Likely Leapt in August and is Still Set to Peak at 3% Soon (Publication Centre)

The upward trend in CPI inflation likely reasserted itself in August, following a hiatus in the last two months due to the decline in oil prices.

13 August 2018 Core Inflation won't Repeat the Jump of the Past Few Months (Publication Centre)

The jump in core inflation in recent months is about as alarming as the sudden decline in the same period last year; that is, not very.

12 January 2018 Core CPI to Rebound (Publication Centre)

The downside surprise in the November core CPI, which rose by 0.1%, a tenth less than expected, was due entirely to an unexpected 1.3% drop in apparel prices. This alone subtracted 0.05% from the core, but we think the chance of a reversal in December is quite high.

12 April 2019 The Brexit Extension isn't the Death Knell for a 2019 Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

The E.U.'s decision to grant the U.K. a Brexit extension until October 31 does not extinguish the possibility that the MPC will raise Bank Rate before the end of the year.

11 February 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Fell Slightly Below The 2% Target in January (Publication Centre)

Analysts' forecasts for January's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, are unusually dispersed.

11 Mar. 2015 Fed Rate Hike Fears Now the Key Worry For LatAm Central Banks (Publication Centre)

Inflation appears no longer to be an issue for Mexican policymakers. The annual headline rate slowed to 3.0% year-over-year in February from 3.1% in January, in the middle of the central bank's target range, for the first time since May 2006.

13 November 2017 October's CPI Inflation Rate Should Represent the Peak (Publication Centre)

October's consumer price figures, released Tuesday, likely will show that CPI inflation increased to 3.1%, from 3.0% in September.

13 October 2017 Did the Hurricanes Lift September's Core CPI, as well as the Headline? (Publication Centre)

Three separate stories will come together to generate today's September core CPI number. First, we wonder if the hurricanes will lift the core CPI.

15 November 2018 CPI Inflation is Set to Undershoot the 2% Target as Soon as Q1 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at 2.4% in October, undershooting the 2.5% consensus expectation and the MPC's forecast in this month's Inflation Report.

16 Feb. 2015 Central Banks in LatAm Concerned about Inflation Pass-Through (Publication Centre)

Central banks in Chile, Peru, and Mexico hogged the market spotlight last week. Chile left its main interest rate at 3.0% on Thursday, for the fourth consecutive meeting.

17 August. 2016 Oil Sector Capex is Rebounding, and Will Add to Q3 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

The most important number released yesterday was hidden well behind the headline inflation, production and housing construction data. We have been waiting to see how quickly the upturn in the number of rigs in operation would translate into rising oil and gas well-drilling, and now we know: In July, well-drilling jumped by 4.7%

14 June 2017 The Squeeze on Real Wages is Intensifying Rapidly (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation increased to 2.9% in May, from 2.7% in April, exceeding the no-change expectation of both the consensus and the MPC, as well as our own 2.8% forecast.

14 February 2018 Gas Prices Will Lift the January CPI: Core has Risks in Both Directions (Publication Centre)

We have no real argument with the consensus forecasts for the January CPI, with the headline likely to rise by 0.3%, with the core up 0.2%.

13 September 2018 Base Effects have Lifted Core CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

Now that the run of unfavorable base effects in the core CPI--triggered by five straight soft numbers last year--is over, we're expecting little change in the year- over-year rate through the remainder of this year.

14 August 2017 July's Soft-Looking Core CPI was Different from Previous Weak Data (Publication Centre)

July's fifth straight undershoot to consensus in the core CPI was very different the previous four. Only one component--lodging away from home--prevented the first 0.2% month-to-month print since February.

14 Dec. 2015 November Data Will Mark the First Step in Inflation's Long March Up (Publication Centre)

November's consumer prices figures, released tomorrow, look set to show that the U.K.'s spell of negative inflation has ended. CPI inflation is set to pick-up decisively over the coming months, even if oil prices continue to drift down. In fact, fuel prices likely will contribute to the pick-up in inflation from October's -0.1% rate. November's 1.5% fall in prices at the pump was smaller than the 2.3% drop in the same month last year, so the year-over-year rate will rise. Fuel's contribution to CPI inflation therefore will pick up, albeit very marginally, to -0.47pp from -0.50pp in October.

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