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Today's official figures likely will show that retail sales weakened a touch in December. Indeed, we think that the consensus forecast for a 0.1% month-to-month decline in sales volumes is too timid; we look for a 0.5% drop. Retail sales surged by 1.8% month-to-month in October and then rose by 0.2% in November, so a correction is overdue. Clothing sales, in particular, likely fell sharply in December.
Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively soft footing.
House prices are on course to rise only by around 2% this year, the smallest increase for five years.
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